IRAQI POLITICS Political Power, Alignment, and Alliances in Post- Ba’athist

Diane L. Maye, Ph.D. Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) October 2016 AGENDA

 REVIEW  DISTRIBUTION OF IRAQI ETHNORELIGIOUS GROUPS

 POLITICAL GROUPS IN IRAQ

 MILITANT GROUPS IN IRAQ

 GENERALIZATIONS DISTRIBUTION OF IRAQI ETHNORELIGIOUS GROUPS

 Northern Iraq  Western Iraq - Kurdish - Sunni Arab

- Shi’ia/Sunni Mix  Southern Iraq – Shi’ia Arab IMPORTANT QUESTION(S)

 Q1. What are the competing political factions within Iraq?

 Q2. How are they organized?

 Q3. How do Iraqi leaders convince people to switch alliances?

MAJOR IRAQI MILITANT GROUPS OVERVIEW PKK Peshmerga KURDISH Kurdish Islamic Movement 1920 Revolution Brigade

Hamas Iraq

SUNNI Mujahadeen Army

Islamic Army Iraq SOI - Baghdad

SOI - Anbar Sunni Awakening

Al Qaeda Iraq Daesh (ISIS)

SALAFIST Ansar Al Islam Ansar Al Sunna

Badr Brigades ISCI

Asa’ib ahl al- Haqq

SHI’IA Mahdi Army Ka’taib Hezbollah

Coalition Bombing of Al Askari Death of Promised Day Brigades U.S. Forces Invasion Mosque Exit Iraq 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IRAQ’S SUNNIS POLITICAL AND MILITANT GROUPS IRAQ’S SUNNIS SONS OF IRAQ IRAQ’S SUNNIS GENERALIZATIONS

 Sunni political parties are often tied with militant groups.

 Secular & Islamist Sunni political parties lack the institutional longevity of Shi’ia and Kurdish political parties.

 New Sunni parties are de-legitimized by accusations of association/collusion with Ba’athists & Salafists

 The Sons of Iraq movement occurred in separate stages; charismatic leadership was critical in its success.

 After the Sunni Awakening the Sons of Iraq and emergent Sunni politicians disintegrated or were forced into political exile. IRAQ’S SHIA PARTIES SPECTRUM OF POLITICS IRAQ’S SHIA PARTIES POLITICAL AND MILITANT GROUPS IRAQ’S SHI’IA PARTIESS GENERALIZATIONS

 Like the Sunnis, Shi’ia political parties are often tied with militant groups.

 Moqtada al Sadr capitalized upon a cleavage within the Shi’ia Arab population in Iraq.

 Moqtada al Sadr can be considered a charismatic leader.

 The Sadrist Trend did not disintegrate, but has become a powerful force in Iraqi politics.

 The success of the Shi’ia parties corresponds with their institutional maturity. KURDS OF IRAQ SPECTRUM OF POLITICS KURDS OF IRAQ POLITICAL & MILITANT GROUPS KURDS OF IRAQ GENERALIZATIONS

 Kurdish political parties are not tied to militant groups in the same manner as Sunni and Shi’ia Arabs.

 The Peshmerga have become a legitimate security organization within Kurdistan, and they are representative of all Kurds.

 The spectrum of politics in Kurdistan is largely based on geography.

 The original families leading Kurdistan’s two major parties are still leading those parties (which suggests the persistence of charismatic leadership) YES, AGENCY MATTERS

 Muqtada al-Sadr  Sheikh Abu Risha  Dr. Ayad Allawi  Ayatollah Ali Sistani

 Abu Abed  Abu Musab al-Zarqawi  CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

 Institutionalization of political parties within Iraq eventually takes place, but it is difficult to pinpoint the exact moment or timeframe this occurs.

 Political factions born of a political cleavage required charismatic leadership in the formative stages.

 The transition from charismatic authority to legal/rational authority happens over time. QUESTIONS?

QUESTIONS?

 Thank you for your time!