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MANHATTAN Savills Research Q2 2021 MARKET IN MINUTES MANHATTAN Savills Research Occupancy & leasing tick up yet market still has KEY STATISTICS a long road to “normal” ahead y-o-y Q2 2020 Q2 2021 Change New York is slowly rebounding from pandemic fallout with physical office occupancy increasing as tenants formulate return-to-office plans. According to Kastle Systems, office Inventory 454.7 MSF 467.4 MSF occupancy for the New York Metro was 21.7% in June, up from 13.9% in March. Renewed Availability Rate 11.8% 18.4% interest in re-occupancy has also led to more leasing. Activity reached 4.9 million square feet (msf) during the second quarter, up 21.8% from Q1. This marks the highest quarterly Class A Asking Rental Rate $95.32 $86.05 total since the onset of the pandemic. Still, demand volume remains well below a typical pre-pandemic quarter. Even if the market saw an unlikely return to the five-year quarterly Class A Taking Rental Rate $79.97 $83.98 average volume (8.5 msf) in Q3 and Q4 of this year, 2021 would still end the year 40% below Quarterly Leasing Activity 3.3 MSF 4.9 MSF pre-pandemic levels of activity. With new supply continuing to grow and availability edging closer to 20%, it is unlikely that the market will see a rebalance of supply-demand until late 2022 or beyond. ASKING RENT TRENDS Overall Asking Rent Class A Asking Rent Sublet inventory declines, but a wave of new direct space pushes $120.00 availability to 18.4%, Manhattan’s highest level in decades Despite increased activity during the second quarter, supply continues to outpace demand. $100.00 Manhattan’s overall availability rate is now at 18.4%, a 120-basis-point increase from $86.05 the first quarter and representing a totally different market when compared to the 11.5% $80.00 $75.60 recorded in the first quarter of 2020. While surging sublease supply has been a major driver $60.00 of spiking availability since the onset of the pandemic, its future impact on the market $ / SF remains to be seen. Notably, dozens of tenants opted to re-occupy marketed space this $40.00 quarter as return-to-office strategies were enacted, reducing overall sublease inventory for the first time since the pandemic. For those organizations planning on more flexible remote $20.00 policies, it could result in the addition of new, long-term sublease blocks as workplace strategies continue. Direct availability saw a jump this quarter as several large direct spaces $0.00 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2021 now within a year of occupancy (5 Times Square, 111 Wall Street, 295 Fifth Avenue, 80 Pine Street, 222 Broadway) led to a 7.1-msf increase in direct availability (now at 63.5 msf total). AVAILABILITY TRENDS Overall Availability Class A Availability 20.0% Asking rents continue to decline, value of concessions up 17% 18.4% The addition of cheaper, long-term sublease space coupled with a dearth of direct options 17.9% has led owners to lower overall asking rents by 8.8% over the year to $75.60 per square foot 15.0% (psf). However, a year-over-year increase in Class A taking rents highlights the current "flight to quality" and speaks more to tenant opportunity than any true increase in pricing, as the majority of deals occurring now are in high-end buildings and spaces. Even if starting 10.0% rents for these options remain high, concessions continue to rise with the current value of free rent and tenant improvement allowances for long-term Class A leases up 17% from the beginning of 2020. For the first time since the pandemic, large tenants favored moving 5.0% over staying in place with seven of the largest 10 transactions attributed to relocations. This shift - possibly to capitalize on softer market - conditions does not bode well for owners 0.0% with significant near-term rollover, a notable point of leverage for tenants. Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2021 LEASING ACTIVITY Outlook Quarterly Leasing Activity 5-Year Quarterly Average 14.0 • Even with renewed activity, tenants are facing a staggering number of options on the market and concession offerings will be 12.0 aggressive amidst softer market dynamics 10.0 • Effective rents will continue to decline in the coming quarters 8.0 • Shifts in demographic patterns, particularly the fact that 6.0 millennials have been buying homes in suburban locations at a fast clip, could result in stronger demand for transit-proximate 4.0 Square feet (millions) locations (Grand Central, Penn Station) over those with a "cool" 2.0 factor (Midtown South) 0.0 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2021 Manhattan Market in Minutes - Q2 2021 TOP 10 LEASING TRANSACTIONS 65.0% 27.8% 29.0% of top transactions were new locations Retail sector tenants accounted for of major transactions occurred in Penn and relocations by square footage 27.8% of top transactions by square Plaza / Times Square South by square footage footage Tenant Square feet Address Transaction type Submarket Industry For more information, please contact us: The Legal Aid Society 198,900 40 Worth Street Renewal and Expansion Tribeca Legal Services Penn Plaza/Times Savills Aeropostale 155,634 11 Penn Plaza Relocation Retail Square South 399 Park Avenue 11th Floor Schrödinger 108,849 1540 Broadway Relocation Times Square Pharmaceuticals New York, NY 10022 Stone Ridge Asset 97,652 1 Vanderbilt Avenue Relocation Grand Central Financial Services +1 212 326 1000 Management LLC Fiserv 94,413 1 Broadway Relocation WTC/Brookfield Place TAMI Mitchell E. Rudin 641 & 635 Avenue of the Chairman and Chief Infor 90,428 Renewal Flatiron TAMI Americas Executive Officer Young Adult Institute 75,246 825 Seventh Avenue Relocation Columbus Circle Education +1 212 326 1000 [email protected] Empire Blue Cross Blue Penn Plaza/Times 72,721 1 Penn Plaza Relocation Financial Services Shield Square South Penn Plaza/Times David Lipson Burlington Stores 68,307 1400 Broadway Renewal and Expansion Retail Square South President +1 212 326 1000 Fashionphile 60,000 601 W 26th Street Relocation Chelsea Retail [email protected] Source Savills Research Sarah Dreyer Vice President, Head of Americas AVAILABILITY RATE COMPARISON RENTAL RATE COMPARISON ($/SF) Research Manhattan Submarkets Manhattan Submarkets +1 212 326 1000 [email protected] Hudson Yards 12.3% Hudson Yards $131.38 Hudson Square 12.4% Plaza North $112.84 Danny Mangru Plaza South Plaza South 13.0% $97.87 Research Director City Hall 16.5% Greenwich Village $92.20 Times Square 16.5% Manhattan Class A $86.05 +1 212 326 1000 Midtown Total 17.3% Chelsea $85.13 [email protected] Penn Plaza/Times Square South 17.4% Union Square $82.73 Chelsea 17.4% Tribeca $81.41 Greenwich Village 17.7% Soho $80.57 About Savills Inc. East Side / UN 17.7% Midtown Total $80.38 Savills helps organizations find the Manhattan Class A 17.9% Times Square $80.08 right solutions that ensure Manhattan 18.4% Midtown South Total $79.98 employee success. Sharply skilled and fiercely dedicated, the firm’s Columbus Circle 18.6% Park Avenue South $79.22 integrated teams of consultants and Grand Central 18.6% Manhattan $75.60 brokers are experts in better real WTC/Brookfield Place 18.8% East Side / UN $74.63 estate. With services in tenant Tribeca 19.1% Columbus Circle $73.72 representation, workforce and Midtown South Total 19.9% Hudson Square $73.50 incentives strategy, workplace Downtown Total 20.6% Grand Central $73.37 strategy and occupant experience, Flatiron 21.3% Flatiron $70.88 project management, and capital Union Square 21.6% WTC/Brookfield Place $66.76 markets, Savills has elevated the Plaza North 22.2% Downtown Total $59.80 potential of workplaces around the Financial District 22.3% Penn Plaza/Times Square South $58.14 corner, and around the world, for Park Avenue South 23.0% Financial District $54.28 160 years and counting. Soho 25.8% City Hall $52.13 For more information, please visit 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 Savills.us and follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Unless otherwise noted, all rents quoted throughout this report are average asking gross (full service) rents per square foot. Statistics are calculated using both direct and sublease information. Current and historical availability and rent data are subject to change due to changes in inventory. The information in this report is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but no representation is made as to the accuracy thereof. Unless otherwise noted, source for data is Savills Research. Copyright © 2021 Savills savills.us.
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