sign in sign up
<<
Home , Alexandre Lacazette, Anthony Martial, Bas Dost, Bruno Fernandes, Domenico Berardi, Emre Can

CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report Issue 16 - June 2016

Transfer values and probabilities: the CIES Football Observatory approach

Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson

1. Introduction vested. This gap is explained by the inflation in transfer costs. Insofar as nothing indicates that the inflation has topped out, a supple- Transfer fees paid by football clubs to recruit ment of 10% was applied to each footballer new players have strongly increased over the whose transfer value appears in this report. past few years. With the growth in revenues This percentage corresponds to the underes- of the top-flight European teams along with timated amount observed on average so far. those of all English clubs, a new record for expenditure will most probably Our approach also takes into account the level be set during the next . of the team interested in acquiring the servic- es of a player. A wealthy club such as Man- The CIES Football Observatory is able to pre- chester City, for example, should pay more dict the footballers of the five major European than West Bromwich Albion for the same play- leagues who are the most likely to be trans- er. To simplify, the values presented refer to ferred for a sum of money during next sum- the corresponding fee for the team most like- mer. We are also capable of estimating the ly to recruit the player in question taking into transfer value of big-5 league players taking account his characteristics and performances. into account the amounts previously paid for footballers with similar characteristics. This Report first examines the criteria used to evaluate both players’ transfer values and Our estimations are based on statistical mod- probabilities. We then present the big-5 league els developed from a detailed analysis of deals footballers most likely to be the object of a concluded over the last six years. No subjective paid transfer during next summer. The follow- data is taken into account. Transfer rumours ing chapter lists the players with the highest have no place in our approach. Neither do our transfer value. In the conclusion, we reiterate estimates include clauses that fix the fee at the principle applications possible for the al- which certain players can be transferred. gorithms elaborated by the CIES Football Ob- Since the 2013 summer transfer window, the servatory research group. correlation between values estimated by our algorithm and the sums actually paid for the recruitment of big-5 league players has been close to 80%. The strength of this correla- tion shows that, on one hand, the footballers’ transfer market is rational and, on the other, that its rationality has been well understood by the econometric model developed by the CIES Football Observatory academic team. Moreover, the model estimating the proba- bilities of paying fee transfers has turned out to be very accurate. Of the twenty footballers that we identified as most likely to be trans- ferred for a fee in June 2015, twelve actual- ly left, five extended their contract and only three stayed in their home club without re- newing their contract. The estimated transfer values were, on aver- age, slightly lower than the sums actually in-

1 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

2. Valuation criteria Figure 1: key indicators in estimating transfer values and probabilities To determine transfer values and probabilities on a scientific basis, our academic team first Age rs analysed in detail the trajectories of players e y Position Book having recently participated in the five ma- la value jor European leagues. Among these are over P 2,000 footballers that have been the object of paying fee transfers since July 2010. Contract Competition level Using statistical modelling techniques, we Values have been able to identify the criteria that af- fect the determination of transfer fees, as well Probabilities International Results as the factors influencing the probability of a status player being transferred for a sum of money. These variables refer to both players and their teams. s Experience Achivements m a e A first group of indicators concerns the char- Performance T acteristics of players such as age, position, length of contract remaining and the residu- al book value. The latter variable is calculated from the transfer fee amount paid by the em- ployer club, divided according to the percent- age of years of contract since the signature. A second group of indicators takes into ac- count the players’ performances, notably in terms of the amount of time played in the dif- ferent club competitions (domestic leagues, cups) or, eventually, in national teams. Recent performances are given more weight than pre- vious ones. The last family of indicators refers to the lev- el of the leagues where the footballers played their matches, as well as to the results ob- tained by the employer clubs. The level of the national team represented is also taken into account.

2 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

3. Probabilities of fee paying Figure 2: Players with an estimated value greater than €25 million most likely to be transferred for transfers money

This chapter presents the rankings of football- 1. Gonzalo Higuaín* 60.9 ** ers identified by our model as being the most Napoli (ITA) - fw - 28 - 2018 likely to be transferred for a fee during the 2. Alexandre Lacazette 41.5 (FRA) - fw - 25 - 2019 2016 summer transfer window. Players on loan 3. 25.2 have not been included in the analysis. Marseille (FRA) - fw - 22 - 2020 Numerous footballers from relegated clubs 4. 120.2 Atlético (ESP) - fw - 25 - 2020 figure among those for whom a paid depar- 5. 58.1 ture is the most probable. Indeed, relegation Everton (ENG) - fw - 23 - 2019 obliges teams to compensate decreasing rev- 6. Carlos Bacca 35.4 enues by selling players. This also gives an Milan (ITA) - fw - 29 - 2019 incentive to the players themselves to leave. 7. 31.5 Consequently, relegated clubs generally offer Monaco (FRA) - am - 21 - 2020 interesting recruitment possibilities. 8. André Gomes 41.2 Valencia (ESP) - dm - 22 - 2020 There are many top-flight forwards among the 9. Leroy Sané 34.0 players whose transfer value is over €25 mil- Schalke (GER) - am - 20 - 2019 lion and who are most likely to be transferred. 10. 49.9 Gonzalo Higuaín heads the rankings. The Inter (ITA) - fw - 23 - 2019 28-year-old Argentinean has only two years of 11. 29.2 his contract left to run. According to our anal- Valencia (ESP) - cb - 24 - 2019 ysis, it is very probable that he will be signed 12. Ross Barkley 39.7 by a wealthier club than Naples. Everton (ENG) - am - 22 - 2018 13. Koke Resurrección 50.3 Three other players whose transfer value is Atlético Madrid (ESP) - am - 24 - 2019 over €50 million are likely to leave: Antoine 14. Hakan Çalhanoğlu 27.2 Griezmann and Koke Resurrección from Atléti- Leverkusen (GER) - am - 22 - 2019 co Madrid, as well as Everton’s Romelu Luka- 15. Paco Alcácer 31.0 Valencia (ESP) - fw - 22 - 2020 ku. Mauro Icardi (Inter) and Alexandre Lacaz- 16. Henrik Mkhitaryan 33.6 atte (Lyon) are also strong contenders for the Dortmund (GER) - am - 27 - 2017 most expensive summer transfers. 17. Mohammed Salah 38.7 Roma (ITA) - fw - 24 - 2019 18. Ilkay Gündoğan 26.4 Dortmund (GER) - dm - 25 - 2017 19. 35.5 Southampton (ENG) - fw - 24 - 2018 20. 34.7 Leicester (ENG) - fw - 29 - 2019

* Name - Value (million €) Club (League) - Position - Age - Contract end ** [gk] : goalkeeper, [cb] : centre back, [fb] : full back, [dm] : defensive , [am] : attacking midfielder, [fw] : forward

3 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

Newcastle’s surprise relegation will probably Numerous talents are among the 20 players result in the departure of quality players. Ac- with a transfer value between €7.5 and €15 cording to our analysis, four footballers from million who are the most likely to leave their the club whose value is between €15 and €25 current club. The youngest of them is Stutt- million are likely to be transferred: Georgin- gart’s . Only Nicola Sansone (Sas- io Wijnaldum, Aleksander Mitrović, Chancel suolo) is more likely to be transferred for a fee Mbemba and . Mario Götze (Bay- than the German striker. Three 21-year-old ern ) is also likely to find a new club as players are also in the top 20: Leon Goretz- his contract has only one year left to run. ka (Schalke 04), (Olympique Mar- seille) and (Udinese). Figure 3: players with an estimated value between €15 and €25 million most likely to be Figure 4: players with an estimated value transferred for money between €7.5 and €15 million most likely to be transferred for money 1. 24.8 Newcastle (ENG) - am - 25 - 2020 1. Nicola Sansone 13.7 2. Mario Götze 24.4 Sassuolo (ITA) - fw - 24 - 2017 Bayern (GER) - am - 24 - 2017 2. Timo Werner 8.5 3. Aleksandar Mitrović 24.2 (GER) - fw - 20 - 2018 Newcastle (ENG) - fw - 21 - 2020 3. Nathan Redmond 9.9 4. Filip Kostić 15.4 Norwich (ENG) - am - 22 - 2017 Stuttgart (GER) - am - 23 - 2019 4. Robert Brady 7.7 5. Maximilian Meyer 22.4 Norwich (ENG) - am - 24 - 2018 Schalke (GER) - am - 20 - 2018 5. Loïc Rémy 8.2 6. André Schürrle 20.8 Chelsea (ENG) - fw - 29 - 2018 (GER) - am - 25 - 2019 6. Jean Seri 9.8 7. Chancel Mbemba 15.8 Nice (FRA) - dm - 24 - 2019 Newcastle (ENG) - cb - 21 - 2020 7. Fernando Martins 13.8 8. Jonjo Shelvey 16.6 Sampdoria (ITA) - dm - 24 - 2020 Newcastle (ENG) - dm - 24 - 2021 8. Jordan Ayew 10.8 9. Fabinho Tavares 23.5 Aston Villa (ENG) - fw - 24 - 2020 Monaco (FRA) - dm - 22 - 2019 9. 14.8 10. Domenico Berardi 22.5 Newcastle (ENG) - am - 26 - 2019 Sassuolo (ITA) - fw - 21 - 2019 10. Yunus Malli 9.0 11. Max Kruse 16.0 (GER) - am - 24 - 2018 Wolfsburg (GER) - fw - 28 - 2019 11. Kevin Gameiro 14.0 12. 16.4 Sevilla (ESP) - fw - 29 - 2018 Hoffenheim (GER) - fw - 23 - 2019 12. Roberto Soriano 14.5 13. Javier Hernández 15.7 Sampdoria (ITA) - dm - 25 - 2020 Leverkusen (GER) - fw - 28 - 2018 13. Saido Berahino 12.1 14. Giacomo Bonaventura 18.4 West Bromwich (ENG) - fw - 22 - 2017 Milan (ITA) - am - 26 - 2019 14. 12.8 15. Franco Vázquez 16.9 Schalke (GER) - am - 21 - 2018 Palermo (ITA) - fw - 27 - 2019 15. Karim Rekik 10.1 16. Rodrigo Moreno 19.5 Marseille (FRA) - cb - 21 - 2019 Valencia (ESP) - fw - 25 - 2019 16. Jesé Rodríguez 11.2 17. José María Callejón 17.9 Real Madrid (ESP) - fw - 23 - 2017 Napoli (ITA) - fw - 29 - 2018 17. Bruno Fernandes 8.5 18. Manuel Nolito 20.4 Udinese (ITA) - dm - 21 - 2018 Celta Vigo (ESP) - fw - 29 - 2019 18. Carlos Vela 12.6 19. Antonio Candreva 20.3 Real Sociedad (ESP) - fw - 27 - 2018 Lazio (ITA) - fw - 29 - 2019 19. 8.4 20. Jorginho Frello 23.6 Lyon (FRA) - am - 24 - 2017 Napoli (ITA) - dm - 24 - 2020 20. Lucas Pérez 14.4 RC Deportivo (ESP) - fw - 27 - 2019

4 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

Players with only one year of contract remain- Eighteen of the 20 players most likely to be ing are clearly over-represented among foot- transferred for a fee among those whose ballers valued between €2.5 and €7.5 million transfer value is under €2.5 million have only most likely to be transferred for a fee. Indeed, one year of contract to run. With the exception if the player does not want to extend his con- of Lukas Hinterseer (Ingolstadt), they are all tract, his club is pushed to transfer him to from relegated teams. Heading the list is Ve- avoid a free departure. This case in point is no- rona’s Artur Ioniță from Moldova. Four players tably that of . The Toulouse from Hanover are also in the top 20 rankings: striker is ahead of Aïssa Mandi (Stade Reims) Miiko Albornoz, Salif Sané, Kenan Karaman and and teammate Martin Braithwaite. Lasse Sobiech.

Figure 5: players with an estimated value Figure 6: players with an estimated value lower between €2.5 and €7.5 million most likely to be than €2.5 million most likely to be transferred transferred for money for money

1. Wissam Ben Yedder 5.7 1. Artur Ionită 2.3 Toulouse (FRA) - fw - 25 - 2017 Verona (ITA) - dm - 25 - 2017 2. Aïssa Mandi 2.9 2. Jacques Zoua 1.2 Reims (FRA) - cb - 24 - 2017 GFC Ajaccio (FRA) - fw - 24 - 2017 3. Martin Braithwaite 4.5 3. Jozabed Sánchez 1.8 Toulouse (FRA) - fw - 25 - 2017 Rayo Vallecano (ESP) - dm - 25 - 2017 4. Nicolas de Préville 4.5 4. Miiko Albornoz 1.1 Reims (FRA) - fw - 25 - 2018 Hannover (GER) - fb - 25 - 2017 5. Ron-Robert Zieler 3.1 5. Federico Dionisi 1.9 Hannover (GER) - gk - 27 - 2017 Frosinone (ITA) - fw - 29 - 2017 6. Andy Delort 5.9 6. Salif Sané 2.0 Caen (FRA) - fw - 24 - 2019 Hannover (GER) - dm - 25 - 2018 7. 6.6 7. Kenan Karaman 1.2 Getafe (ESP) - am - 24 - 2019 Hannover (GER) - fw - 22 - 2017 8. Raphaël Guerreiro 7.2 8. Matthieu Saunier 0.8 Lorient (FRA) - fb - 22 - 2017 Troyes (FRA) - cb - 26 - 2017 9. Haris Seferović 4.8 9. Mohamed Larbi 1.2 (GER) - fw - 24 - 2017 GFC Ajaccio (FRA) - am - 28 - 2017 10. Pascal Gross 3.4 10. Hamari Traoré 1.6 Ingolstadt (GER) - dm - 25 - 2017 Reims (FRA) - fb - 24 - 2018 11. Youssef El Arabi 3.4 11. Artur Sobiech 0.8 Granada (ESP) - fw - 29 - 2017 Hannover (GER) - fw - 26 - 2017 12. Deyverson Acosta 3.6 12. Eros Pisano 1.2 Levante (ESP) - fw - 25 - 2019 Verona (ITA) - fb - 29 - 2017 13. Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro 3.2 13. Adri Embarba 1.9 Toulouse (FRA) - dm - 23 - 2017 Rayo Vallecano (ESP) - am - 24 - 2017 14. Nampalys Mendy 7.4 14. Kevin Lasagna 2.4 Nice (FRA) - dm - 24 - 2017 Carpi (ITA) - fw - 23 - 2017 15. 5.5 15. Lossémy Karaboué 0.6 (GER) - dm - 25 - 2018 Troyes (FRA) - am - 28 - 2017 16. Mathew Leckie 3.2 16. Babacar Gueye 0.6 Ingolstadt (GER) - fw - 25 - 2017 Troyes (FRA) - fw - 21 - 2017 17. 6.1 17. Robert Gucher 1.1 Wolfsburg (GER) - fw - 27 - 2017 Frosinone (ITA) - dm - 25 - 2017 18. Vurnon Anita 2.8 18. 1.8 Newcastle (ENG) - dm - 27 - 2017 Getafe (ESP) - cb - 21 - 2017 19. Jonas Martin 2.7 19. Lukas Hinterseer 2.2 Montpellier (FRA) - dm - 26 - 2017 Ingolstadt (GER) - fw - 25 - 2017 20. Daniel Caligiuri 4.4 20. Przemyslaw Tytoń 1.5 Wolfsburg (GER) - am - 28 - 2017 Stuttgart (GER) - gk - 29 - 2017

5 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

4. Transfer values role, which could lead to clubs pushing up the bidding price to ensure their services. This chapter presents the rankings for big-5 league players with the highest transfer values Figure 7: big-5 league players with the highest as of 1st June 2016. Matches played or con- transfer values, 1st to 20th position tract extensions occurred after this date have 1. * 211.1 not been included in the analysis. However, Barcelona (ESP) - fw** - 29 - 2018 the estimations take into account the infla- 2. Júnior 201.5 tionist trend of transfer fees. Barcelona (ESP) - fw - 24 - 2018 3. 137.8 The majority of footballers with the highest Real Madrid (ESP) - fw - 31 - 2018 transfer value play in the top-flight teams, are 4. Antoine Griezmann 120.2 active internationals, have a long-term con- Atlético Madrid (ESP) - fw - 25 - 2020 tract and are less than 27 years of age. As of 5. 112.5 July 2015, Lionel Messi tops the rankings. How- Tottenham (ENG) - fw - 22 - 2020 ever, his top spot is under increasing threat 6. 111.8 from his teammate Neymar. Given their age Manchester Utd (ENG) - fw - 20 - 2019 difference, a change in the first position seems 7. Luis Suárez 105.8 unavoidable, especially if the Brazilian renews Barcelona (ESP) - fw - 29 - 2019 his contract with Barcelona. 8. Paulo Dybala 104.5 Juventus (ITA) - fw - 22 - 2020 Cristiano Ronaldo, ranked third, is the only 9. Sergio Agüero 96.8 player having celebrated his 31st birthday Manchester City (ENG) - fw - 28 - 2019 among the 100 most expensive players. This 10. 90.4 Juventus (ITA) - dm - 23 - 2019 result is explained by the fact that clubs are 11. 80.8 prepared to pay substantial transfer fees Real Madrid (ESP) - fw - 26 - 2019 above all when footballers have many years 12. 78.3 left in the career to play. Chelsea (ENG) - am - 25 - 2020 13. Alexis Sánchez 75.8 In total, eight players have a transfer value of Arsenal (ENG) - fw - 27 - 2018 over €100 million. The youngest of them, An- 14. 75.2 tony Martial, is only 20 years of age. Another Tottenham (ENG) - am - 20 - 2021 Frenchman, Antoine Griezmann, is the most 15. Thomas Müller 73.5 likely to be transferred. A third Frenchman, Bayern (GER) - fw - 26 - 2021 Paul Pogba, has the highest value for central 16. 72.8 . With four players, only the Argen- Manchester City (ENG) - fw - 21 - 2020 tineans outnumber the French in the top 20 17. 67.8 list: Lionel Messi, Paulo Dybala, Sergio Agüero Bayern (GER) - fw - 27 - 2019 and Gonzalo Higuaín. 18. Álvaro Morata 64.2 Juventus (ITA) - fw - 23 - 2020 The vast majority of footballers on the list play 19. 62.2 for competitive teams. Indeed, good results Real Madrid (ESP) - dm - 26 - 2020 have a positive effect on the value of squad 20. Gonzalo Higuaín 60.9 members. Conversely, poor results do not al- Napoli (ITA) - fw - 28 - 2018 low clubs to show players under contract in * Name - Value (million €) the best light. Good individual performanc- Evolution since January 2016 Club (League) - Position - Age - Contract end es can only partially compensate collective ** [gk] : goalkeeper, [cb] : centre back, [fb] : full back, weaknesses. [dm] : defensive midfielder, [am] : attacking midfielder, [fw] : forward Most of the footballers with the highest trans- fer values play in attacking positions. This player profile is indeed traditionally the one for which clubs are prepared to pay the high- est fees. This result would lead one to believe that offensive talents are rarer and thus more sought after. Another possible explanation is that footballers playing in attack are simply more visible and admired by spectators than their colleagues playing in a more defensive

6 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

Three defenders are ranked between the 21st Victory in the English Premier League has al- and 40th place for big-5 league footballers lowed Leicester City to showcase their play- with the highest transfer values: Hector Bel- ers. The most expensive among them is the lerín (Arsenal), (Bayern Munich) French neo-international N’Golo Kanté, closely and Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid). Though followed by the Algerian international Riyad they are still young, they already have con- Mahrez. According to our analysis, the transfer siderable international experience. According value of goalkeepers (Manches- to our analysis, Thibault Courtois (Chelsea) is ter United) and Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid) is the most expensive goalkeeper: €48.4 million also above 40 million €. (35th). Figure 9: big-5 league players with the highest Figure 8: big-5 league players with the highest transfer values, 41st to 60th position transfer values, 21st to 40th position 41. David de Gea 46.4 21. Alarcón 60.4 Manchester Utd (ENG) - gk - 25 - 2019 Real Madrid (ESP) - am - 24 - 2018 42. Francesc Fàbregas 45.7 22. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 59.5 Chelsea (ENG) - dm - 29 - 2019 Dortmund (GER) - fw - 27 - 2020 43. Nicolás Otamendi 44.9 23. James Rodríguez 58.7 Manchester City (ENG) - cb - 28 - 2020 Real Madrid (ESP) - am - 24 - 2020 44. N'Golo Kanté 44.2 24. Romelu Lukaku 58.1 Leicester (ENG) - dm - 25 - 2019 Everton (ENG) - fw - 23 - 2019 45. Douglas Costa 44.0 25. Héctor Bellerín 55.6 Bayern (GER) - am - 25 - 2020 Arsenal (ENG) - fb - 21 - 2020 46. 43.5 26. 55.2 Manchester Utd (ENG) - fw - 22 - 2019 Manchester City (ENG) - am - 25 - 2021 47. Riyad Mahrez 43.1 27. 52.3 Leicester (ENG) - am - 25 - 2019 (ENG) - am - 24 - 2020 48. Pedro Rodríguez 42.9 28. Yannick Ferreira Carrasco 50.9 Chelsea (ENG) - am - 28 - 2019 Atlético Madrid (ESP) - am - 22 - 2020 49. 42.5 29. Willian Borges 50.8 SG (FRA) - fw - 23 - 2019 Chelsea (ENG) - am - 27 - 2018 50. Jérôme Boateng 42.4 30. Koke Resurrección 50.3 Bayern (GER) - cb - 27 - 2021 Atlético Madrid (ESP) - am - 24 - 2019 51. Saúl Ñíguez 42.1 31. Mauro Icardi 49.9 Atlético Madrid (ESP) - dm - 21 - 2021 Inter (ITA) - fw - 23 - 2019 52. Alexandre Lacazette 41.5 32. 49.6 Lyon (FRA) - fw - 25 - 2019 Chelsea (ENG) - fw - 27 - 2019 53. André Gomes 41.2 33. Mesut Özil 48.8 Valencia (ESP) - dm - 22 - 2020 Arsenal (ENG) - am - 27 - 2018 54. 40.9 . David Alaba 48.8 Arsenal (ENG) - fw - 29 - 2018 Bayern (GER) - cb - 24 - 2021 55. Jan Oblak 40.8 35. 48.4 Atlético Madrid (ESP) - gk - 23 - 2021 Chelsea (ENG) - gk - 24 - 2019 56. 40.1 36. 48.2 Southampton (ENG) - cb - 24 - 2022 Tottenham (ENG) - dm - 22 - 2020 57. 39.8 37. 47.7 Manchester Utd (ENG) - cb - 26 - 2018 Real Madrid (ESP) - fw - 28 - 2019 58. Ross Barkley 39.7 38. 47.5 Everton (ENG) - am - 22 - 2018 Barcelona (ESP) - dm - 27 - 2021 59. 39.5 39. Raphaël Varane 47.0 Liverpool (ENG) - dm - 22 - 2018 Real Madrid (ESP) - cb - 23 - 2020 60. Ivan Rakitić 39.3 40. Christian Eriksen 46.6 Barcelona (ESP) - dm - 28 - 2019 Tottenham (ENG) - am - 24 - 2018

7 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

The transfer values of players ranked between Thanks to the outstanding performances with 61st and 80th place are situated between €34 Dortmund, Henrikh Mkhitaryan is the only play- and €38 million. Alongside Cristiano Ronal- er with one year of contract remaining among do, the Bayern Munich world champion Ma- the 100 most expensive big-5 league players. nuel Neuer (72nd) is the only player in the top Two young German talents also have very high 100 having already celebrated his 30th birth- transfer values: Leroy Sané (€34 million, 81th) day. The transfer value of (61st) and (€29.4 million, 100th). Given sharply decreased compared to January due their age and ability to progress, their trans- to his injury. fer fee could increase even further in a year’s time, unless a top club decides to act quickly Figure 10: big-5 league players with the highest as Manchester United did in August 2015 with transfer values, 61st to 80th position Anthony Martial.

61. Marco Verratti 38.8 Figure 11: big-5 league players with the highest Paris SG (FRA) - dm - 23 - 2020 transfer values, 81st to 100th position 62. Mohammed Salah 38.7 Roma (ITA) - fw - 24 - 2019 81. Leroy Sané 34.0 63. 38.6 Schalke (GER) - am - 20 - 2019 Juventus (ITA) - cb - 29 - 2020 82. Aoás 33.6 64. 38.2 Paris SG (FRA) - cb - 22 - 2019 Everton (ENG) - cb - 22 - 2019 . Henrik Mkhitaryan 33.6 65. 38.1 Dortmund (GER) - am - 27 - 2017 Liverpool (ENG) - fw - 24 - 2020 84. 33.0 66. 37.8 Manchester Utd (ENG) - cb - 26 - 2019 Arsenal (ENG) - dm - 25 - 2019 85. Radja Nainggolan 32.8 67. 37.7 Roma (ITA) - dm - 28 - 2020 Tottenham (ENG) - am - 24 - 2018 86. 32.5 68. Nemanja Matić 37.2 Leverkusen (GER) - am - 20 - 2019 Chelsea (ENG) - dm - 27 - 2019 87. Wilfred Zaha 32.3 69. Oscar dos Santos 37.0 Crystal Palace (ENG) - am - 23 - 2020 Chelsea (ENG) - am - 24 - 2019 88. Bernardo Silva 31.5 70. 36.8 Monaco (FRA) - am - 21 - 2020 Manchester Utd (ENG) - am - 28 - 2018 89. Konstantinos Manolas 31.4 71. Gianelli Imbula 35.9 new Roma (ITA) - cb - 25 - 2019 Stoke (ENG) - dm - 23 - 2021 90. Gerard Piqué 31.3 72. 35.7 Barcelona (ESP) - cb - 29 - 2019 Bayern (GER) - gk - 30 - 2021 91. Paco Alcácer 31.0 73. Ángel Di María 35.6 Valencia (ESP) - fw - 22 - 2020 Paris SG (FRA) - am - 28 - 2019 . Miralem Pjanić 31.0 74. Sadio Mané 35.5 Roma (ITA) - dm - 26 - 2018 Southampton (ENG) - fw - 24 - 2018 93. Danilo da Silva 30.9 75. Carlos Bacca 35.4 Real Madrid (ESP) - fb - 24 - 2021 Milan (ITA) - fw - 29 - 2019 . 30.9 . Heung-Min Son 35.4 Roma (ITA) - fb - 25 - 2019 Tottenham (ENG) - fw - 23 - 2020 95. Jordon Ibe 30.3 77. Felipe Anderson 34.8 Liverpool (ENG) - am - 20 - 2020 Lazio (ITA) - fw - 23 - 2020 96. 30.2 78. Jamie Vardy 34.7 Dortmund (GER) - fw - 27 - 2019 Leicester (ENG) - fw - 29 - 2019 97. David Silva 30.0 79. Denis Suárez 34.5 Manchester City (ENG) - am - 30 - 2019 Villarreal (ESP) - am - 22 - 2019 98. 29.8 80. 34.3 Manchester City (ENG) - gk - 29 - 2019 West Ham (ENG) - am - 29 - 2021 99. Marcelo Vieira 29.7 Real Madrid (ESP) - fb - 28 - 2020 100. Jonathan Tah 29.4 Leverkusen (GER) - cb - 20 - 2020

8 Monthly Report 16 - Transfer values and probabilities

An interesting observation is also the over-rep- ber through injury notably. In order to do this, a resentation of English Premier League players continual evaluation of the transfer value of a among those with the highest transfer values: player and the elaboration of different scenar- 7 in the top 20 rankings, 17 in the top 40, 29 ios to estimate his future value are essential. in the top 60, 41 in the top 80 and 46 in the Thanks to our methodology and independ- top 100. ence, we are in an ideal position to advise the different actors in this area. This result is a reflection of the financial clout of English clubs that allows them to attract nu- Within the same perspective, the objective es- merous talents from abroad each year. More- timation of the transfer value of players can over, transfer costs between Premier League be of considerable interest in obtaining cred- teams are generally higher than between clubs its. This value can be used as a guarantee to from other championships. All things being convince banks or other types of creditors equal, the value of a Premier League player is to grant loans. The algorithm estimating the thus higher than that of a footballer playing in probability of paying fee transfers can also be other competitions. used to this effect. Measuring the possibilities of players’ transfers is notably useful in esti- mating the risks undertaken. In this case also, 5. Conclusion our services are addressed equally to the dif- ferent parties involved. The pioneering approach developed by the The recourse to the statistical models esti- CIES Football Observatory in the field of eval- mating both transfer values and probabilities uating transfer probabilities and values of pro- is also very valuable in the framework of ne- fessional footballers is suitable for multiple gotiation concerning contract extensions. It applications that we shall briefly illustrate be- notably allows club officials the analysis of low. different scenarios so as to define the level of salary that can be offered to players without Firstly, our approach can be of the utmost use taking an excessive financial risk. It can also in transfer negotiations. The estimated value be useful to determine the optimum length of can indeed serve as a reference for the dif- a new contract from an economic perspective. ferent parties involved: the buying club, the selling club, as well as the player’s representa- Last but not least, aside from all commercial tives. Moreover, as the initial valuation is often considerations, we believe that our approach decisive in the determining of the final price, is of great value for the sustainable develop- any valid information that one can have ac- ment of professional football. It brings an add- cess to allow one to have an advantage in the ed degree of transparency and objectivity in negotiations. transfer operations. Up until the present, no organisation was indeed in a position to judge The algorithm developed for transfer values is on a solid and credible scientific basis whether also useful in case of litigation. The previous transactions were sound. clubs of players very often have a percentage on the future transfer (“sell-on fee”). If they The principle challenge that awaits us is to deem themselves to have been wronged and popularise further our approach to become a wish to contest the amount for which a player more and more widely recognised actor in the was transferred, they must do this using ob- milieu of players’ transfer market. With this in jective elements. Our approach has already mind, we aim to make more and more data proven to be very useful in this domain. We available on our site. The latter is addressed can also assist clubs entitled to a share of the not only to the game’s professionals, but also transfer for a player exchanged, even though to the keen football passionate that we are the exchange has not involved a monetary part of. Do not hesitate to contact us for more transaction. information. With the increase of transfer costs and the growing importance of revenues generated from transferring players in clubs’ business model, it has become more and more useful to take out an insurance that allow teams at least some partial compensation for the de- crease in the transfer value of a squad mem-

9