Montenegro | No 1 | February to March 2007

Montenegro | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

The dominant political issues during the last two months in Montenegro were related to the adoption of a new Constitution and the further international consolidation of the state. These developments have been followed by both cooperative and conflictive events among Montenegro’s political parties. The most important cooperative event was the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the European Union on 15 March 2007. This is considered a breakthrough because it not only signals progress in internal reforms but it also places the country in a better position for EU integration than its former ally, Serbia. The Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn made positive remarks over Montenegro’s progress towards EU standards, despite some previous criticism voiced by the members of the European Commission’s technical negotiating team. Moreover, this development has been marked by significant consensus among Montenegro’s political parties, who seem to be unanimous in their strive towards EU membership, unlike the developments in regard to NATO membership. Following the signing of the Partnership for Peace with NATO at the end of 2006 together with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, the Government of Montenegro has proposed the involvement of Montenegrin soldiers in the ISAF troops in Afghanistan. While this proposal was met with optimism by NATO, it sparked some criticism from the opposition parties, particularly the Liberal Party. Later in March it called upon the government not to hurry with the adoption of such a decision, suggesting that NATO accession should be subject to a popular vote in a referendum. However, the most contentious issue among Montenegro’s political parties is related to the country’s new constitution. Following its admission to the Council of Europe on 8 February 2007, Montenegro initiated the process of writing its new constitution by signing a Declaration on Minimum Principles to be incorporated. The Declaration was signed by the President of Parliament, the Prime Minister and the leaders of the parliamentary parties, with the exception of the opposition Serbian List and the Liberal-Bosnian coalition. However, this move has triggered inter- and intra-party disagreements over the nature of the new constitution and the procedures that have to be followed. Namely, disagreements have been expressed over state symbols and the official language, as well as the procedure for adoption of the new constitution, i.e. through a two-thirds majority vote in parliament or a referendum. Due to the sensitive nature of the issues involved and the proposal to vote on the new constitution in a national referendum rather than in the parliament by a two-thirds majority vote, fears have been expressed that the referendum may deepen the divide between the Montenegrin and the Serbian ethnic groups rather than help national reconciliation and fortification of a separate Montenegrin identity. However, Prime Minister Sturanovic alleviated such fears by stating that he expected the parliament to adopt the new constitution by the Independence Day Anniversary on 21 May, and that a referendum would therefore not be necessary. The developments around the constitutional change should be watched closely as they might trigger further inter-party disagreements and conflicts. The appearance on the public agenda of issues related to Montenegro’s identity and statehood seems to have been used by the smaller political parties to consolidate their positions in Montenegro’s political scene. Since the appearance of the Movement for Change, some of them have lost the support of their traditional constituencies. For example, the radical, nationalistic Serbian List boycotted the Declaration (on minimum principles to be included in the new constitution) on the grounds that it will assimilate Serbian citizens, while the Socialist People’s Party warned the government against any unilateral move aimed at accepting Kosovo independence. However, at the moment these developments do not seem to represent any significant internal threat to the country.

The period under review was not marked by significant security threats to Montenegro. Major issues on the country’s security agenda were those related to the lack of rule of law and persistence of organized crime. As organized crime continues to be one of the key issues in Montenegrin politics, this period saw criticism of the government’s efforts at dampening it. The most important criticism came with the latest US State Department Report on International Strategy to Control Drug and Financial Crimes which names Montenegro as one of the most important transit routes for drug, arms and cigarette smuggling and as a safe haven for money laundering. FAST Update | Montenegro | No 1 | February to March 2007

Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic and the US Ambassador to Podgorica, Marsha Barns have in the meantime stated that since the publication of that report Montenegro has made some progress in fighting organized crime. The government showed a sense of political maturity and on 5 March established an operational team for preventing illegal cigarette trade and announced that all local governments would participate in fighting the problem. Likewise, the most important opposition party at the moment, the Movement for Change, proposed that a “white book” on organized crime be prepared and submitted to the parliament for consideration. However, persisting trends show that the linkages between some state structures and organized crime are still too strong to bring significant results.

Several important developments in Montenegro’s international relations deserve being mentioned. Apart from the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU, the country also ratified the Agreement on Accession to the Central European Free Trade Agreement – CEFTA of 2006. Likewise, it became a member of UNESCO and signed international agreements for cooperation on diverse issues with its neighbors Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia, as well as with Russia. During this reporting period, Montenegrin authorities have shown a clear will to face the country’s past and to accept their responsibility regarding the conflicts in former Yugoslavia. At the meeting between Ranko Krivokapic, President of the Montenegrin Parliament and Vladimir Seks, President of the Croatian Parliament, the issue of Montenegrin war damages to Croatia was discussed. Particularly during the past few months relations with Croatia seemed to have been improving. Croatian President Stjepan Mesic praised the level of collaboration between the two countries during his visit. He added that the question of paying war compensation to Croatia will not become a problem that could cause tensions between the two. Mesic has been appointed honorary citizen of Podgorica, a move that has reinforced the ties and the positive development of the two countries’ relationship. The intensification of Montenegro’s efforts to develop its international relations is a positive factor for the country’s stability and enjoys general consensus by political parties and citizens alike.

Over the past two months, Montenegro lived through a relatively stable period. As shown in the Stability and Conflict graph below, conflictive events declined. The positive note from Brussels regarding the country’s progress towards the EU and the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement with Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative) the European Union represent significant positive intervening factors that keep

strengthening the support for the reform-oriented government of Sturanovic. This important momentum should be seized to strengthen democratic forces in the country and to stimulate the government in accelerating not only Montenegro’s international consolidation but also its progress in developing its internal democratic capacities. Likewise, the positive outlook stemming from the signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU may be somewhat blurred by the process that will lead towards the adoption of the new constitution. At the moment, the consensus over such changes depends very much on the stand that will be taken by the Movement for Change. If they support the draft constitution, the Source: FAST event data parliament would have a two-thirds majority vote in its favor. In that case there would be no need for a national referendum, which in turn may be used by conservative and nationalistic forces in the country to stir up grievances based upon the Montenegrin/Serbian ethnic divide.

Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Montenegro Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC).