Proposal for a Site to Be Included in the Main Issues Report

EUROPEANDEVELOPMENT HOLDINGSLIMITED

DevelopmentBidforLandat DenmoreRoad,BridgeofDon, Aberdeen

June2013

RydenPropertyConsultants 25AlbynPlace Aberdeen AB101YL Tel;01224588866 Fax;01224589669 RYDENPROPERTYCONSULTANTS2013DEVELOPMENTBIDDENMOREROAD,BRIDGEOFDON

Contents

1.0Introduction 2.0DescriptionofSiteandProposals 3.0PlanningBackground 4.0DevelopmentPlanConsiderations 5.0Services 6.0DevelopmentJustification 7.0Conclusions

AppendixA;IndicativeLayout AppendixB;RetailCapacityAssessment

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1ThisdevelopmentbidissubmittedonbehalfofEuropeanDevelopmentHoldings Limited.Itrelatestolandextendingtoapproximately4.56hectaresorthereby lyingbetweenDenmoreRoadandtheA90dualcarriageway.Thelandisinthe ownershipofAberdeenCityCouncilandiscurrentlyleasedtoHallRussell UnitedandHermesamateurfootballclubs.EuropeanDevelopmentHoldings LimitedconsiderittohavepotentialtoaccommodateClass1RetailUse.

1.2Thesitewaspreviouslypromotedforretailusethroughthe2012Aberdeen LocalDevelopmentPlan.Furtherworkhasbeenundertakensubsequenttothat processwhichnowjustifiesinclusionofthesiteforretailuseintheLocal DevelopmentPlanReview.

1.3EuropeanDevelopmentHoldingsLimitedareheadquarteredintheCityof Aberdeenandhaveundertakennumerousdevelopmentprojectsthroughoutthe cityandindeedthroughoutScotlandasawhole.ExamplesincludetheQueens LinksLeisurePark,TalismanEnergyHeadquarters,andtheHaudiganRetail Park,allinAberdeen.TheCompanyalsoownandoperatevarioushotelsunder licencefromtheIntercontinentalHotelGroupincludingtheHolidayInnExpress, ChapelStreet,Aberdeen,theHolidayInn,WesthillandtheHolidayInnand HolidayInnExpressattheAberdeenExhibitionandConferenceCentre.They alsoowntheHolidayInnExpressinPicardyPlace,Edinburgh.

1.4EuropeanDevelopmentHoldingsLimitedwishtheproposalstobeconsidered forinclusionwithinthereviewoftheAberdeenCityLocalDevelopmentPlan. Theproposalsinvolvetherelocationoftheexistingleaseholderstoenhanced facilitieselsewhereintheCityonlandpresentlycontrolledbytheCompany.

2.0DESCRIPTIONOFSITEANDPROPOSALS

2.1Thebidsiteextendstoapproximately4.56hectares.Itsentirefrontagetothe eastisboundbytheA90whilstpartofthewesternfrontageisboundby DenmoreRoad.Theremainingwesternboundaryisformedbytheexisting businessandindustrialuseslyingoffDenmoreRoad.Furtherbusinessand industrialuseslietothenorthandsouth.DenmoreIndustrialEstateis characterisedbymixedusedevelopmentwithbusinessandindustrialuses dispersedwithClass1RetailUses.Theseretailusespredominantlylietothe northandsouthofthebidsite.

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Figure1:SiteLocationPlan

2.2TheextantLocalDevelopmentPlan,adoptedon29February2013,identifies partofthesiteasanopportunityfortheprovisionofacivicamenityrecycling centre(OP5).TheremainderofthesiteisdesignatedasUrbanGreenSpace andpartoftheGreenSpaceNetwork.However,thereisnopublicaccessto thatland.Itisoccupiedbytwofootballpitcheswithanassociatedareaof parkingonanunmadesurfaceandisretainedfortheirsoleuseundertheterms ofalonglease.ThesiteislandscapedalongitseasternboundarywiththeA90. ThelandtotheeastoftheA90isidentifiedintheextantLocalDevelopment Planforbusinessandindustrialdevelopment.Adevelopmentframeworkhas beenpreparedforthatarea.

2.3Intopographictermstheareaisrelativelyflatwithagradualfallacrossthesite towardstheA90.AccesstothesiteispresentlytakenfromDenmoreRoadto thewest.Historicalmapsindicatethatthesitepreviouslybenefitedfroman accessdirectfromtheA90.

2.4Theproposalinvolvestherelocationandenhancementoftheplayingfieldsand theredevelopmentofthesiteforClass1RetailUsestoprovideaDistrictCentre servingthecommunitytotheeastofBridgeofDon.Itisenvisagedthatthis couldincludeafoodsuperstoreofcirca10,000sqmandnonfoodretailunits extendingtocirca3,500sqm,orsuchothercombinationofClass1retailuses

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asdictatedbydemand,withassociatedcarparking.Anewvehicularaccess wouldbeformedfromtheA90,EllonRoadwithserviceaccesstakenfrom DenmoreRoad.Theproposedjunctioncouldalsoprovideanewaccesstothe proposedbusinessandindustrialdevelopmenttotheeastenablingthephasing ofthatdevelopment.Acopyoftheindicativelayoutatalargerscaleisattached atAppendixA.

Figure2:IndicativeLayout

3.0PLANNINGBACKGROUND

3.1 FollowingacallforsitesbyAberdeenCityCounciltobeconsideredfor inclusionintheirproposedLocalDevelopmentPlan,EuropeanDevelopment HoldingsLimitedsubmittedaDevelopmentBidinMarch2009forthelandat DenmoreRoad.ThatBidwasallocatedref:2/15.Itproposedtherelocation andenhancementoftheplayingfieldsandtheredevelopmentofthesitefor Class1RetailUsestoprovideaDistrictCentreservingthecommunitytothe eastoftheBridgeofDon.

3.2TheMainIssuesReport(MIR),publishedbyAberdeenCityCouncilinOctober 2009identifiedtheareatothenortheastofBridgeofDonasoneofeight areasforgrowth.TheMIRnotedthatattheconsultationeventstherewasa strongfeelingthatextensiveinfrastructureimprovementsandmorefacilities arerequiredifdevelopmentsaretoproceedintheBridgeofDonarea.Tothe northeastofBridgeofDon,itidentifiedtwositesaspreferredfor development.AsiteatDubfordwasidentifiedtoaccommodatethe550units

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intheperiod2007–2016.TotheeastoftheA90afurther20hectare expansionofthebusinessandindustriallandidentifiedintheextantPlanwas proposed.TheMIRfailedtoidentifytheDenmoresiteasapreferredsitefor development.Itconsideredthelossoftheexistinggreenspaceintheurban areatobeinappropriategiventhescaleofgreenfielddevelopmentthatis required.TheMIRtooknocognisanceofthefactthattheplayingfieldswere beingrelocatedtoprovideenhancedfacilities.

3.3RepresentationssubmittedonbehalfoftheobjectortotheMIRsoughtto addresstheissuesraisedbytheCouncil.Theycontendedthattheallocation ofthelandwouldsatisfyanunmetdemandforretailfacilitiesintheexisting community.Furthermore,itwouldalsoaddresstheneedsoftheproposed residentialandindustrialexpansionareasproposedimmediatelytothenorth. Regardingthelossoftheplayingfields,itadvisedthatEuropeanDevelopment HoldingsLimitedhadagreedtoprovidereplacementfacilitiesfortheclubsand thatthesitewouldnotberedevelopeduntilthesefacilitieswereinplace.It highlightedthatthesewouldprovideenhancedfacilitieswithnewpitches, trainingareasandchangingfacilities.Theywouldalsobeavailabletothe widerpublicwhich,theCouncilacknowledged,wasnotthecasewiththe existingplayingfields.

3.4Theofficer’sresponsetotherepresentationssubmittedontheMIRwas consideredbytheCouncil’sEnterprise,PlanningandInfrastructureCommittee on31May2010.Theymaintainedtheircontentionthatthebulkofthesite shouldberetainedforuseasplayingfields.However,theyhighlighteda requirementforanewrecyclingcentreonpartofthesitetoservethewider BridgeofDonarea.

3.5Asaconsequence,thesitewasidentifiedintheproposedPlanasanareaof UrbanGreenSpaceandGreenSpaceNetwork.Thatpartofthesiteadjoining DenmoreRoadwasidentifiedasanopportunitysitefornewcommunity facilitiescomprisingacivicamenity/recyclingcentre.Objectionswere submittedinresponsetotheproposedPlanandtheseweresubsequently consideredatanExaminationinPublicintothePlan.

3.6FollowingtheExaminationinPublictheReporterconcludedthat “giventhe lackofevidencewithregardtootherpossiblesitesandmyconcerns aboutthesuitabilityofalternativesportsprovision,Ifindthatthelossof thisareaofgreenspacehasnotbeensufficientlyjustified” .Accordingly, nochangewasproposedtotheLocalDevelopmentPlantoprovideforretail useonthissite.

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3.7Asubsequentmeetingwasheldwithplanningofficersandattendedbylocal Councillorson26April2012.AtthatmeetingtheReportersfindingswere reviewedandCouncillorsexpressedtheconcernsofthelocalcommunity regardingthepotentiallossofB&Qshoulditbereplacedbyaconvenience store.Theyconsideredthatthissitecouldaccommodateeitherafooduseor anon-foodusedependingupontheeventualredevelopmentoftheB&Qsite.

3.8ItwasagreedthattheAberdeenAreaShoppingStudy,onwhichtheLocal DevelopmentPlanwasbased,wassignificantlydatedandtoaddressthe issuesraisedbytheReporter,aRetailCapacityAssessmentwouldbe undertaken,includingareviewofalternativesites.Thiswascompletedin September2012andisattachedasAppendix2toinformconsiderationofthis bid.

4.0DEVELOPMENTPLANCONSIDERATIONS

4.1ScottishPlanningPolicyrequiresthatDevelopmentPlansshouldidentifya networkofcentresandexplaintheroleofeachcentreonthenetwork.ThePlan shouldenablegapsanddeficienciesinprovisionofshopping,leisureandother servicestoberemediedbyidentifyingappropriatelocationsfornew developmentandregeneration.Allretail,leisureandrelateddevelopments shouldbeaccessiblebywalking,cyclingandpublictransport.

4.2Asequentialapproachisadvocatedforselectingsitesforretailandcommercial uses.Thepolicyrecognisesthatthesequentialapproachrequiresflexibilityand realismandencouragesstakeholderstoworktogethertotakeaccountof commercialrealitiesinthepreparationoftheDevelopmentPlan.

4.3TheextantDevelopmentPlancomprisestheCityandShireStructurePlan approvedbyScottishMinistersinAugust2009andtheAberdeenLocal DevelopmentPlanadoptedinFebruary2012.Morerecently,aproposed StrategicDevelopmentPlanwasthesubjectofpublicconsultationandwill ultimatelyreplacetheCityandShireStructurePlan.TheLocalDevelopment PlanReviewwillrequiretoconformwiththatPlan.

4.4TheAberdeenCityandShireStructurePlanseekstoguidestrategicgrowthin theareaovertheperiodto2030.Itsvisionisforasuccessfulandsustainable futureandtoachievethisseekstopromotepopulationgrowthandtoprovide opportunitieswhichencourageeconomicdevelopmentandcreatenew employmentinarangeofareasthatarebothappropriatefor,andattractiveto,

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theneedsofdifferentindustries,whileatthesametimeimprovingtheessential strategicinfrastructurenecessarytoallowtheeconomytogrowoverthelong term.

4.5ThePlanidentifiedarequirementforaround72,000houseswithintheStructure PlanareaovertheperiodandtheCitywasidentifiedasoneofthreeStrategic GrowthAreaswhichwouldbethemainfocusofdevelopmentinthatperiod. AroundhalfofallnewdevelopmentwastobelocatedinAberdeenCity.Of those36,000housesrequiredintheCityitenvisagedthat21,000wouldbe providedongreenfieldsiteswithafurther15,000splitbetweenbrownfieldsites andidentifiedregenerationareaswithintheCity.

4.6Theplanadvocatedsustainablemixedcommunitieswithnewhousingand developmentsforemploymentandcommercialusewellrelatedtoeachotherto improvepeople’squalityoflifeandopportunity.Itrecognisedthatastrong servicesectorwasimportantandinparticular,retailandallformsoftourism, includingbusinesstourism,willhavearoletoplay.Itemphasisedthe importanceofpromotingretailservicesthroughouttheregiontoguaranteethe vitalityandviabilityoftowncentres,whilecreatingopportunitiesforgrowthinthe economy.Itfurtherreaffirmedthesequentialapproachinidentifyingsitesfor newretaildevelopmentacrosstheStructurePlanarea.Importantlyitspecified atargetforAberdeentobeoneofthetop25retailareasintheUKby2030.

4.7TheBridgeofDonoccupiesakeylocationfallingwithintheCityStrategic GrowthAreaandalsolyingonthefringeoftheAberdeentoPeterheadStrategic GrowthArea.TheStructurePlanrecognisedthatthisareahassignificant potentialwithimportantstrategicassetsincludingtheDonaldTrumpGolfProject ontheMenieEstateashortdistancetothenorthoftheCity.TheEnergetica initiativeseekstocapitaliseontheseassetsandthefocusisondevelopingand diversifyingtheeconomybydeliveringvitalinfrastructureprojectsinthefirst planperiodtohelpcreategrowth.

4.8TheproposedStrategicDevelopmentPlanmaintainsthespatialstrategyofthe extantStructurePlanand‘rollsforward’thehousingandemploymentland allocationsto2035.TheadoptedLocalDevelopmentPlanidentifiedsitesto accommodatetheseallocationsand,intheabsenceoffurtherallocations emergingthroughtheproposedStrategicDevelopmentPlan,fewadditional housingandemploymentsitesarelikelytobeidentifiedthroughtheLocal DevelopmentPlanreview.

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4.9Notwithstanding,scopeexiststoidentifyadditionalretailprovision.Boththe extantStructurePlanandtheLocalDevelopmentPlanwereguidedonretail requirementsbytheAberdeenandAberdeenshireShoppingStudypreparedin 2004.ThisiscurrentlyunderreviewandtheLocalDevelopmentPlanreview willrequiretoaddressanyshortfallsarising.AshighlightedbytheRetail CapacityAssessmentappendedtothisBidscopeexiststoaccommodate additionalretailprovisionintheBridgeofDonarea.

5.0SERVICES

5.1Mainswateranddrainageareavailablenearbytoservicethesiteasaregas andelectricityconnections.Itislikelythatadditionaldrainagecapacitywillbe requiredwithinthesitetoaccommodatetheoverallscaleofdevelopment envisaged.Nevertheless,thesiteiswellplacedtotakeadvantageofnearby connections.

5.2ThesitebenefitsfromanexistingaccessfromDenmoreRoad.Itisproposed however,thatanewaccessbecreatedfromtheA90.Thiswouldprovidethe mainvehicularaccesswiththeexistingaccessfromDenmoreRoadreserved forservicevehicleaccess.PubictransportservicescurrentlyutilisetheA90 passingthefrontageofthesite.

5.3ReferencetoSEPAsFloodRiskMapsdemonstratethatthereisnofloodrisk associatedwiththesite.

6.0DEVELOPMENTJUSTIFICATION

6.1ThesuburbofBridgeofDonliestothenorthoftheCity,somedistancefromthe CityCentre.Ithasgrownsubstantiallyoverthelast30yearstobecomethe largestsuburbinEuropewithapopulationofover22,000.Itislinkedtothe remainderoftheCitybytwocrossingpointsovertheRiverDon,attheBridgeof DontotheeastandPersleyBridgetothewest.IthousestheAberdeen ExhibitionandConferenceCentreandhasasignificantemploymentbaselying predominantlytothenortheastofthesuburb.Itiscurrentlyservedbytwo DistrictCentresatDanestone,anchoredbyTesco,andatMiddletonPark anchoredbyasmallfirstgenerationAsda.Nonfoodretailingunitsare interspersedthroughoutthebusinessandindustrialareatothenortheast.The existingDistrictCentresarelocatedtotheextremewestofthesuburbwith

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MiddletonParkslightlytothewestofthecentre.ThereisnoDistrictCentre servingtheresidentialorbusinessandindustrialareastotheeastofthesuburb ortheCityhinterlandtothenorth.

6.2TheAberdeenandAberdeenshireShoppingStudypublishedinSeptember 2004raisedanumberofissuesinrespectoftheBridgeofDonarea.Interms ofretailcapacity,ithighlightedasignificantshortfallinbulkygoodsprovisionat 2004andthiswasmaintainedthroughto2011,theequivalentto15%of availableexpenditure.Morespecifically,itmadetworecommendationsrelative totheBridgeofDonarea.IntheDenmore/Murcarareaitrecommendedthat investigationsshouldbeundertakentoachievethepracticalconsolidationof dispersedbulkygoodsunitsincludingthepotentialforrelinquishingoldconsents fornewconsents.InrespectofMiddletonPark,whereAsdaispresently located,itrecommendedthatstudiesbeundertakentoimprovetherangeof retailofferinthearea.Neitheroftheserecommendationshavebeenacted uponandthepromotionofthebidsiteforretaildevelopmentpresentsan opportunitytoaddresstheseissues.

6.3MorerecentworkundertakenfollowingtheReportersfindingsindicatesthat therearenosequentiallypreferablesiteswithintheBridgeofDonarea.B&Q, Site4atDenmoreRoadoccupiesasimilarpositionandbenefitsfrom permissionforClass1retailuse.However,thetimingofsuchdevelopmentis constrainedbyexistingleasesandisunlikelytoproceedinthenearfuture,ifat all.Shoulditbeimplemented,thedisplacedusescouldbeaccommodatedon theDenmoreRoadsite,therebycontinuingtoservetheBridgeofDonarea.

6.4Retailcapacityassessment 1 demonstratesthattheproposedsuperstoreat DenmoreRoadwouldnotundermineexistingretaillocations.Tradediversion wouldbemarginalacrossalllocations,exceptforASDAatMiddletonPark whichshowsatolerable-10%tradeloss,andTescoatDanestonewhich experiencesa-25%tradelossbutwouldcontinuetoover-tradegivenitscurrent exceptionalperformance.Comparisongoodsexpenditureattheproposed superstorewouldcauseonlymarginaltradediversionfromadispersed catchment,andwouldreversesomeoftheveryhighexpenditureleakagefrom northernAberdeen.

6.5ThecumulativeimpacttakingaccountofapossiblesuperstoreatSite4 DenmoreRoadwouldnotthreatentheviabilityofTescoatDanestone,butcould

1 KeithHargestPlanningLtdkindlyprovidedRydenwithaccesstoextractsofVersion1.6oftheAberdeenand Aberdeenshirestrategicretailmodel(AASRM).Thisupdateisnotpubliclyavailable.

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raiseconcernsaboutthehealthofASDAandbyimplicationMiddletonPark shoppingcentre.However,bothareunlikelytoproceedandoneorothercould continuetoprovidefornon-foodretailing.

6.6ItisclearfromthiscapacityassessmentthattheAberdeensuperstoresector hasproducedonlyalimitedresponsetoastrongcityeconomyandagrowing population.Updatedshoppingmodeldatademonstrateshighlevelsofover- tradingatmanyofthecity’sestablishedsuperstores.Currentproposalstothe westofthecitymaypartiallyalleviateover-tradingacrossthewidercity. HoweverthesestoreswillstillleavenorthernAberdeenaroundBridgeofDon under-servedbothinquantitativeterms,andalsoinqualitativetermsduetothe absenceofamodern,fullformatsuperstoreasTescoatDanestoneistoofar easttoservicetheexpandingBridgeofDon.

6.7TheformationofanewDistrictCentreanchoredbyafoodsuperstorewould provideafacilitytoservethesubstantialpre-existingresidentialand employmentusestotheeastofthearea,alsothoseverysubstantialareas currentlyidentifiedfordevelopmentthroughtheextantLocalDevelopmentPlan andotherswhichmayemergethroughthisdevelopmentbidprocess.In particular,itwouldprovideanevendistributionofretailfacilitiesservingthe communityintheBridgeofDon.Itwouldalsobestrategicallylocatedtotake advantageofitspositiononamainarterialrouteintotheCitywhichiswell servedbypublictransportandwhichitselfwillexperiencedevelopment pressureasaStrategicGrowthArea.

6.8Thedevelopmentofthebidsiteforretailpurposeswouldalsoconsolidatethe existingbulkygoodsretailprovisionontheDenmoreIndustrialEstate. Presentlythisisprimarilyfocusedontwoareastotheextremenorthofthe DenmoreIndustrialEstateandsecondlytotheimmediatesouthofthebidsite. Theidentificationofthebidsiteandadjoiningbulkygoodsunitsasadistrict centrewouldencouragetherelocationofthemoreremoteretailunits. Consolidationwouldalsoencouragesingletripshoppingratherthanthecurrent multitripsgeneratedasaconsequenceofthedispersednatureofretailunitson thebusinessandindustrialestate.

6.9TheStructurePlanhighlightedasignificantrequirementforadditionalhousing withintheCityintheperiodto2030.TheextantLocalDevelopmentPlan allocatesasubstantialelementofthistotheBridgeofDonareathereby requiringadditionalretailprovisiontoservicethatdevelopment.Thebidsiteis wellplacedtoservicefurtherexpansiontotheeastofBridgeofDonwhilst

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creatinglimitedtradediversionfromtheexistingcentresatMiddletonParkand Danestone.ItisalsowellplacedtoservetheAberdeentoPeterheadStrategic GrowthAreaandinparticularDonaldTrumpGolfResortwhichitselfwill accommodate500housesand950holidayhomes.Thedevelopmentofa DistrictCentreatthislocationwoulddeliverafurtherservicetoassistthe creationofgrowthintheEnergeticacorridor.

6.10ATrafficImpactAssessmentwillbeundertakentodemonstratethattheexisting andproposedroadnetworkcanaccommodatethescaleofdevelopment proposedwithsuitablemitigationmeasures.Anewvehicularaccesswillbe requiredfromtheA90whichcurrentlyenjoystrunkroadstatus.However, followingcompletionoftheAberdeenWesternPeripheralRoutein2018,this sectionofroadwillbede-trunkedtherebyremovinganyobstacletothecreation ofnewaccesspoints.Anewaccesscouldalsobenefitthedevelopmentofthe landtotheeastoftheA90presentlyidentifiedforbusinessandindustrial developmentandbenefitingfromoutlineplanningpermission.

6.11TherequirementspecifiedbySPPtoprovidereplacementfacilitiesforthe playingfieldshasbeenfullyrecognisedbyEuropeanDevelopmentHoldings Limited.New,significantlyenhancedfacilitieswillbeprovidedelsewherewithin theCityonlandpresentlyunderthecontrolofthedeveloperanddesignatedfor suchuse.Thatsiteextendsto5.6haortherebyandwillaccommodatetwo footballpitcheswiththeirowncoveredstands,twomulti-purposeflood-lit trainingpitcheswithassociatedchangingfacilitiesandcarparking.Also attachedtothescheme,notwithstandingthefactthatthecurrentfacilitiesare notaccessibletothegeneralpublic,isanindoorsportingfacilityavailablefor usebythegeneralpublicandcapableofaccommodatingindoorfootball, badmintonandtennis.Thisre-provisionwouldalsoaddresscurrentLocal DevelopmentPlanPolicyrelativetoUrbanGreenSpace.

6.12Thedevelopmentofthissiteforretailpurposeswouldnotresultinany significantlosstothelandscapecharacterandamenityofthesiteorthe adjoiningareas.Thesitehasnosignificantwildlifevalueasitisineffectan isolatedpocketofopenspaceboundbyadualcarriagewaytotheeast.Thisis compoundedbytheremovalofthelandtotheeastoftheA90fromtheGreen BeltandGreenSpaceNetworkanditsdesignationforbusinessandindustrial development.Theremainderofthesiteisentirelysurroundedbybusinessand industrialandresidentialuses.Asaconsequence,itcurrentlymakesno contributiontotheGreenSpaceNetworkwhichtheextantLocalDevelopment Planalsoconsidersittoformpart.

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6.13Significantlygreaterbenefitwillaccruetothelocalresidentialandbusiness communitythroughtheidentificationofthesiteforretailpurposesthereby satisfyingademandtotheeastofBridgeofDon.Thesiteisalsoaccessibleby cycleandpedestrianlinkstothemainresidentialandbusinessandindustrial areaswithinBridgeofDonmakingitreadilyaccessiblebymeansotherthanthe privatecar.

6.14Thedevelopmentofthesiteforretailusewouldcontributetoabettermixof landusestherebyensuringasustainablecommunitywhichhasaccesstoa rangeofservicesandfacilitieswithinthe1.6kmthresholddistanceforwalking andcyclingspecifiedwithinPlanningAdviceNote75.Designatingthesiteasa districtcentrewouldensurethatasignificantportionoftheBridgeofDonsuburb fellwithin1.6kmofanexistingorproposedDistrictCentre.

6.15Theidentificationofthesiteforretailpurposeswouldnotconflictwiththe adjoininglanduses.Indeed,itwouldbecomplimentarytotheexistingnonfood retailusesimmediatelytothesouthand,ashighlightedabove,wouldencourage theconsolidationofthenonfoodretailusesintoarecognisedDistrictCentrefor thebenefitofthewidercommunity.

7.0CONCLUSIONS

7.1EuropeanDevelopmentHoldingsLimitedbelievethatthebidsiteatDenmore Roadiscapableofaccommodatingarangeofretailusesanchoredbyafood superstore.Alternatively,shouldtheexistingB&QatSite4,DenmoreRoad beredevelopedforfoodretailingthissitecouldaccommodatenonfoodretail useforwhichthereiscontinuingdemandinthearea

7.2ItsdesignationasaDistrictCentrewouldconsolidateexistingnonfoodusesin theDenmoreBusinessandIndustrialEstateandprovideenhancedservicesto theeastofBridgeofDon.TheexistingDistrictCentresatMiddletonParkand Danestonefailtoprovidethatserviceandencouragemultiplecartripsfromthe eastofBridgeofDontoaccesstheirservices.

7.3Thedevelopmentofthebidsiteforretailpurposeswouldnotadverselyaffect thevitalityandviabilityoftheexistingDistrictCentres.Itwouldprovideafacility withinwalkingandcyclingdistanceoftheresidentialandbusinessandindustrial

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areaslyingtotheeastoftheBridgeofDon,includingthesignificantareastothe eastoftheA90identifiedforfurtherbusinessandindustrialdevelopment.

7.4Thelossoftheplayingfieldsandurbangreenspacewillbeadequately compensatedelsewherewiththeprovisionofenhancedfacilities.Furthermore, givencurrentzoningsintheextantLocalDevelopmentPlan,thesitecontributes littletotheGreenSpaceNetworkgiventhatitisentirelysurroundedby development.

7.5Onthebasisofalloftheaboveitisrespectfullyrequestedthatconsiderationbe giventotheallocationofthissiteasaDistrictCentrewithintheLocal DevelopmentPlanreview.

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AppendixA IndicativeLayout

RYDENPROPERTYCONSULTANTS2013DEVELOPMENTBIDDENMOREROAD,BRIDGEOFDON

AppendixB RetailCapacityAssessment

15 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen: RetailCapacityAssessment

Areportto EuropeanDevelopmentHoldingsLtd.

September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

1.Introduction

1.1RydenwasinstructedbyEuropeanDevelopmentHoldingsLtd.toprovidea strategicretailcapacityassessmentforapotentialsuperstoresiteat DenmoreRoad,BridgeofDon,Aberdeen.Theplan(Figure1)below illustratesthesubjectsite,whichextendstoaround4.56ha.,iscurrentlyin recreationaluseasfootballpitches.

Figure1 ProposedSuperstore

1.2Thepurposeofthisreportistoassesswhetherthereisretailcapacityfora newsuperstoreinthislocation,withoutatthisstagehavingtoundertakea time-consumingandexpensivefullretailimpactassessment.

1 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

1.3Themostrecentstrategicretailcapacitymodelfortheregionisthe AberdeenandAberdeenshireRetailStudy. Thestudywaspublishedin September2004andisnoweightyearsold.Itisunderstoodfromthe planningauthoritythatanupdatemaybecommissionedinaroundtwoto threeyearstime.ThisreportfortheDenmoreRoadsiteusesapartial updateoftheunderlyingretaildatawhichhaskindlybeenprovidedbythe Council’sconsultant,KeithHargestPlanningLtd.

1.4TheDenmoreRoadsitewaspromotedthroughtheAberdeenLocal Developmentprocessforretailuse.FollowinganExaminationinPublicinto thePlan,theReporterconcludedthatinsufficientevidencehadbeen providedregardingpotentialalternativesitesandtheshortfallinretail provisionservingtheBridgeofDonarea.Insubsequentmeetingswith PlanningOfficersitwasagreedtoaddresstheseissues.

1.5Theremainderofthisreportthereforeprovides:

• Amarketreview(Section2)

• Sequentialassessmentofalternativesites(Section3)

• Retailcapacityassessment(Section4)

• Summaryandconclusions(Section5)

2 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

2.MarketReview

Scotland

2.1Consumerexpendituregrowthhasweakenedashighpriceinflationandlow wagegrowthhavebeencompoundedbyweakemploymentgrowthandan overhangofpersonaldebtfrompre-2008.Theprospectofunemployment peakingin2012/13andinflationnoweasingshouldimprovehousehold finances,butretailexpendituregrowthisstillexpectedtoremainsubdued. TotalretailsalesinScotlandfellby0.9%inJune2012comparedwith12 monthspreviously 1.Like-for-likesalesdecreasedby2.7%.Foodsalesgrew fastest,althoughpriceinflationratherthanincreasingvolumesislikelytobe themainreasonforthis.

2.2Inresponsetotheseexpendituretrendsandshoppingpatternsfavouring largerdestinations,theretailmarketispolarisingbetweenprimelocations andweakerlocations,andalsobetweenstaple(food,groceries)goods whichcontinuetogrowanddiscretionary(comparisonandleisure)goods whichareshowingweakerperformance.

2.3Consequently,activityintheScottishretailpropertymarketiscurrently restrictedtovalue/discountretail,selectedopportunitiesintheconvenience sectorandprimecitylocations/dominantshoppingcentres.Riskaversionin theaftermathofthebankfundingcrisisisalsoconstrainingproperty developmentandthereareveryfewprojectsinthepipeline.

2.4TheDenmoreRoadsiteisaconvenience-ledretailopportunitywhichcould meettheselectiverequirementsofsuperstoreoperators.Themain superstoreoperatorsintheUKareASDA,Morrisons,Sainsbury’s,Tesco andWaitrose:-

• ASDA’ssuperstoresaverage4100sq.m.salesareaandprovide“an anchorforhighstreetredevelopmentandtofacilitatetheregenerationof brownfieldsites”.ASDAsupercentresaremuchlargerwithaverage salesareasof7900sq.m.andahighproportionofnon-fooditems.

• Sainsbury’ssupermarketsaverage2925sq.m.andaredesignedtosuit thelocationandcustomermarket.Storescanbesignificantlylargerthan thisaverageandarecentnewSainsbury’satWestfieldinEdinburgh

1 Source:SRC/KPMGScottishRetailSalesMonitor

3 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

extendsto6800sq.m.grossinternalarea,ofwhichupto30%canbe usedtoretailcomparisongoods.

• Morrisonssupermarketsrangefrom2300sq.m.to7200sq.m.gross internalareas.Largerstoresincludesfullgrocerylinesand15-20%non- food.

• Tesco’sSuperstoreformatis1860sq.m.to4650sq.m.andoffersmain foodshoppingwithlimitedadditionallinessuchasdvdsandbooks. TescoExtrastoresare5575sq.m.orlargerandincludeawiderangeof groceryandnon-foodgoods.

• Waitrosehasonlyfourstoresandiscurrentlyexpandingveryselectively inCentralScotlandonly.

Aberdeen

2.5Aberdeen’sretailsectorreflectsthewiderstrengthsofthecity’seconomy.It isastronglocationforretailerssupportedbyeconomicresilienceduetothe ongoingsuccessoftheoilandgasindustry.Thesestrengthsareevidentin thecitycentre,out-of-centreretailparksandlocalcentres.

2.6UnionSquare,Aberdeen’snewestshoppingcentre,openedin2009.It comprises70shopsandrestaurants,a10-screencinemaanda203- bedroomhotel.RetailershereincludeHollister,Marks&Spencer,Mamas& Papas,Superdry,Clarks,H&MandZara.RecentopeningsincludeHugo Boss,Dune,CathKidstonandSaksHair.WithCosmo,RiverIsland,Joules, LasIguanasandHotelChocolatduetoopensoon.

2.7TheBonAccord&StNicholasCentreisownedbyScottishRetailProperty LimitedPartnership(ajointventurebetweenLandSecuritiesandBritish Land).Thecentretotals39,855sq.m.andhasundergonean£8million refurbishment.Ithas65shopswithretailersincludingJohnLewis,Boots, RiverIsland,HSamuel,Monsoon,KurtGeiger,NextandNewLook.With Currys&PCWorld,InternacionalandTheCardFactoryallduetoopenlater in2012.

2.8TheAcademyShoppingCentreprovidesarangeofnicheupmarketshops includingAtticClothing,ConceptBoutiqueandImportedInstruments.A Nando’srestaurantopenedhererecently.

4 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

2.9AttheTrinityCentrethereare20storesandretailersincludeArgos,Primark, Debenhams,SuperdrugandarecentlettingtoTheCardFactory.

2.10RetailershavealsobeenactiveonUnionStreet:Poundstretcherrenewed itslease;PretAMangeropenedinMay2012;JamiesItalianisduetoopen intheformerEsslemont&MacIntoshbuilding;Hottershoesopenedinthe formerUSCstorefollowingitsrelocationtoUnionSquare.Thereare currentlytalkstopedestrianisepartsofUnionStreet.

2.11TherearefourretailparksinAberdeen:

• BoulevardRetailParkisonLinksRoadontheseafronttothenortheast ofthecitycentre.OccupiershereincludeAsda,Iceland,HomeBargains, Poundworld,AldiandDunelmMill

• KittybrewsterRetailParkisonBedfordRoadtothenorthofthecity centre.OwnedbyThreadneedleitcomprises13retailunitstotalling 13,147sq.m.OccupiersincludeDFS,SportsDirect,CometandTK Maxx

• GarthdeeRetailParktotals10,665sq.m.andisownedbyPrupim. OccupiersareB&Q,BootsandCurrys/PCWorld.Adjacenttotheretail parkareAsdaandSainsbury’sstores

• CentrepointRetailPark,BerrydenRoadislocatednorthwestofthecity centre.TheparkisownedbyOrchardStreetInvestmentManagement andoccupiersincludeNext,Argos,Sainsbury’s,witharecentlettingto Poundland.

2.12Aberdeen’snetworkofsuperstoresisreviewedlaterinthisreportaspartof theretailcapacityassessment.

BridgeofDon

2.13BridgeofDon’snearestneighbourhoodcentreisinMiddletonPark.The centrecomprisesafirstgenerationASDAalongsidesixunitsownedbyWest CoastEstates,totalling650sq.m.;occupiersincludeBaguetteExpress, DominosPizza,Blockbuster,FantasyWokandCurves.

5 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

2.14BridgeofDonRetailParkisownedbyStandardLifeInvestementsandis locatedsouthofthesubjectsiteonDenmoreRoad.Theretailparktotals 7,490sq.m.RetailersincludeB&QandCarpetright.AlsosituatedinBridge ofDonarebothSterlingandHarveys(ReidFurniture)whohavestoreson DenmoreRoad,DenmoreIndustrialEstate.Homebasehasastoreat BridgeofDonIndustrialEstate.

Summary

2.15Nationalretailmarketconditionsremaindifficult.Retailersareonlyinvesting selectivelyanddevelopmentisconstrainedbylackoffunding.Aberdeen’s strongeconomicperformanceishoweverhelpingittoachievestrongerretail tradingperformanceandgreaterinvestmentinterestthaninthewider nationalmarket.Activityinthesuperstoresectorisreducingfrompeaklevels butthemainmarketoperatorscontinuetoprogressnewopportunities.

6 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

3.SequentialAssessmentofAlternativeSites

3.1Thissectionseekstodeterminewhetherthereareanysequentially preferablysiteswhichcouldaccommodatetheproposal.Planningpolicy guidesretaildevelopmentsfirstlytotowncentres,thensequentiallytoedge ofcentre,othercommercialcentresandfinallyoutofcentresites.

3.2TheAberdeenLocalDevelopmentPlan,adoptedinFebruary2012,advises thatasequentialapproachtoassessingretailproposalswillbetakenin accordancewiththehierarchysetoutintheLocalDevelopmentPlan,andin linewithScottishPlanningPolicy.Asequentialapproachtositeselection formstheprincipalconsiderationindeterminingthelocationofretail developmentonceaquantativerequirementforadditionalfloorspacehas beenestablished.

3.3TheDenmoreRoadsiteliesoutofcentre,accordinglydevelopmentmustbe assessedagainstLocalDevelopmentPlanPolicyRT2.Thisrequiressuch developmenttobeassessedagainstanumberofcriteria,includinga sequentialassessment,providedthatnoothersuitablesiteinalocationthat isacceptableintermsofPolicyRT1isavailable,orislikelytobecome available,inareasonabletime.PolicyRT1establishesahierarchyand sequentialapproachtoretaildevelopmentinregionalcentres,towncentres, districtcentres,andinneighbourhoodcentres.

3.4Asequentialassessmentcarriedoutinsupportofanapplicationforthe redevelopmentofexistingretailunitstoformasingleClass1retailunitat Site4,DenmoreRoad,concludedthattherewerenosequentiallypreferable sitesavailable.PlanningPermissionwassubsequentlygrantedforthat developmenton10June2011.ThatPermissionhasyettobeimplemented.

Methodology

3.5TheAberdeenLocalDevelopmentPlanidentifiestwodistrictcentresserving theBridgeofDonarea.Danestone,anchoredbyTesco,liesonthewestern boundaryofBridgeofDon.MiddletonPark,anchoredbyafirstgeneration Asda,liesmorecentraltoBridgeofDon.Thereisnoprovisiontotheeastor southofBridgeofDon.

3.6Whencarryingoutthesequentialassessment,thefollowinghavebeenused toidentifypotentialalternativesitesclosertothedefineddistrictcentres:

7 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

• AberdeenLocalDevelopmentPlan; • Localknowledgeandsitesurvey; • ExtantPlanningPermissions.

AberdeenLocalDevelopmentPlan

3.7TherecentlyadoptedAberdeenLocalDevelopmentPlanidentifiesanumber ofdevelopmentopportunitysitesintheBridgeofDon.Noneoftheidentified sitesarespecificallyallocatedforretailuse.

3.8SitesOP2,OP3andOP4alllietotheeastoftheBridgeofDon,separated fromthemainresidentialareasbytheA90dualcarriageway.OP2is allocatedforemploymentuseintheperiod2024-2030.OP3,Berryhill,is identifiedforbusinessandindustrialuse,whilstOP4,FindlayFarm,is identifiedasaspecialistemploymentarea.Allthreesitesliefurtherfrom MiddletonParkdistrictcentrethantheproposalsiteatDenmoreRoad.

3.9SiteOP10,EastWoodcroft,liestothenortheastofMiddletonPark.In Councilownership,itisidentifiedtoaccommodate60homesintheperiod 2007-2016.Thissitehasaconstrainedaccessthroughanexisting residentialareaand,assuch,wouldnotbeappropriateforClass1retailuse ofthescaleproposed.

3.10SiteOP11,JesmondDrive,liesimmediatelytothenorthofMiddletonPark. Identifiedformixedusedevelopment,itwaspreviouslymarketedforlocal retailfacilities,butnowhasanextantPlanningPermissionfor82residential units.Barrattarepresentlydevelopingthissite.

3.11SiteOP12,Grandhome,isamajorlandreleaseemergingfromthe AberdeenLocalDevelopmentPlan.Thesiteisidentifiedtoaccommodate 7,000homesintheperiodto2030,withthereleaseof2,600homesinthe period2016andafurther2,100between2017and2023.Italsomakes provisionfor5hectaresofemploymentland.

3.12WhilstaMasterplanhasyettobepreparedforthissite,therewillinevitably beprovisionforanelementofClass1retailusetoservethearea.However, thesiteoccupiesawedgebetweentheexistingMiddletonParkand Danestonedistrictcentresandwillnotaddresstheshortfallinretailprovision totheeastoftheBridgeofDonarea.

8 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

3.13SiteOP25,Dubford,isallocatedtoaccommodate550homesintheperiod to2016.ItliestothenortheastofMiddletonPark,directlytothenorthof Denmore.ThesiteisinthehandsofahousebuilderandaDevelopment Frameworkhasbeenpreparedforthesite.TheDevelopmentFramework makesprovisionforalocalshopservingtheimmediatearea,butdoesnot addressthecurrentlyidentifiedshortfall.

3.14Threesmallersites,OP7,BalgownieCentre,OP8,BalgowniePrimary School,andOP9,AberdeenCollegeGordonCentre,allliewithin predominantlyresidentialareastothesouthoftheBridgeofDon.Allthree sitesareidentifiedinthePlanforresidentialdevelopment.SitesOP8and OP9areaccessedthroughexistingresidentialareasandwouldbe unsuitableforClass1retailuseofthescaleproposed.SiteOP7has recentlysecuredPlanningPermissionforresidentialdevelopmentandis nowunderstoodtobeinthehandsofahousebuilder.

SiteSearch

3.15Beyondthosesiteshighlightedabove,anadditionalsitehasbeenidentified, lyingtothesouthofMiddletonParkbeyondtheParkway.Lyingtothewest ofBalgownieRoad,itisidentifiedintheLocalDevelopmentPlanformixed usedevelopment.Thesiteisintwoparts,thenorthernportion accommodatedthenowvacantBalgownieBowlingCentre,whilstthe southernportion,comprisingBalgownieHomeFarmandwalledgarden,is ownedbytheUniversityofAberdeenandwaspreviouslyassociatedwiththe adjoiningBalgowniePlayingFields.

3.16Thenorthernportionofthesiteisinthehandsofahousebuilderanda PlanningApplicationispendingforresidentialdevelopmentonthatpartof thesite.ThesouthernportioniscurrentlybeingmarketedbytheUniversity. Alargepartofthesouthernsiteisoccupiedbyaformerwalledgarden;a featurewhichwouldrequiretoberetainedinanyfuturedevelopment, therebyrestrictingthescopeforthedevelopmentofasuperstoreonthesite.

ExtantPlanningPermissions

3.17Ashighlightedabove,Site4atDenmoreRoadbenefitsfromanOpenClass 1retailconsentandiscapableofaccommodatingasuperstore development.However,itisunderstoodthattheexistingretailunits occupyingthatsiteareleaseduntilatleast2016.Also,whilstoutline

9 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

PlanningPermissionwasgrantedin2010,thereisnoevidence,asyet,of mattersspecifiedinconditionsbeingaddressed.

3.18Inanyevent,itisacknowledgedthatthatsiteisalsooutofcentreandthe proposalwouldbeindirectcompetitionwithDenmoreRoad.Commercial competitionisnotamaterialplanningconsideration.

3.19ShouldthatPermissionbeimplemented,itwilldisplacearangeofnon-food retailuseswhichcurrentlyservetheBridgeofDonarea.Theallocationof theproposalsiteforretailusecouldthereforeaccommodatethosenon-food uses,ratherthancompetingdirectlywiththedevelopmentatSite4.

Summary

3.20Onthebasisoftheaboveassessment,therearenosequentiallypreferable siteswithintheBridgeofDonarea.Site4atDenmoreRoadoccupiesa similarpositionandbenefitsfromPermissionforClass1retailuse. However,thetimingofsuchdevelopmentisconstrainedbyexistingleases andisunlikelytoproceedinthenearfuture,ifatall.

3.21Shoulditbeimplemented,thedisplacedusescouldbeaccommodatedon theDenmoreRoadsite,therebycontinuingtoservetheBridgeofDonarea.

10 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

4.RetailCapacityAssessment

Introduction

4.1ThemostrecentfullretailcapacityassessmentcoveringtheDenmoreRoad siteandlikelyshoppercatchmentisthe AberdeenandAberdeenshireRetail CapacityStudy (September2004).

4.2Theprocessofsecuringaplanningconsentanddevelopingasuperstoreon theDenmoreRoadsiteislikelytotakearoundthreeyears.Thedesignyear (thefirstfullyearoftradingwiththestoreestablishedinthemarketplace)is thereforelikelytobearound2015or2016.Thismeansthatelevenortwelve yearswillhaveelapsedsincethepublicationofthe2004capacitystudy.

4.3Theassessmentinthissectionthereforedescribestheoriginalfindingsof the2004studyandprovidesanindicativeupdateofwhatarevisedcapacity studylookingforwardtothedesignyearwouldbeexpectedtoshow.

4.4ThetargetoperatorfortheDenmoreRoadsiteislikelytobeoneofthe majorsuperstores,asdescribedinSection2.Thesuperstorewouldbe grocery-ledthereforethemainexpendituretypetoconsiderisconvenience goods.Comparisongoodswouldformpartoftheancillaryuseswithina typicalsuperstorethereforethistypeofexpenditureisalsodiscussedlater. Bulkygoodswouldnotformpartofasuperstore’stypicaloffer(except perhapsforlargerelectronicgoodssuchastelevisionsets).

2004CapacityStudy

4.5Rydenhasusedthe2004AASRMcapacitystudyforanumberofclient projectsoverthepasteightyearsandisfullyfamiliarwiththemethdology, seriesofreportsandthedetaileddataappendiceswhichindicatehowretail expenditureflowsaroundtheregion.FortheDenmoreRoadsitethe relevantshoppingzonesareillustratedonFigure2.Thesezonesare referredtointhe2004capacitystudyas:

• 23:BridgeofDon • 25:MiddletonParkandDanestone • 26:OldAberdeen

11 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

Thesearetheareaswherethebulkofexpenditurewouldbeexpectedto originatefrom–termedtheprimarycatchmentarea.Theprimarycatchment areaisnotanexactmatchfortheproposalsite.Otherstoreswithinand outsidethesethreezoneswillcontinuetodrawexpenditurewhileadditional expenditurefromotherlocationswouldalsoflowtotheproposalsite.

Figure2 SubjectSite

4.6Danestonecentre(withinexpenditureZone25)isdominatedbyaTesco Extrasuperstore.Thestorehasbeentradingsince1989andisunderstood tobethelargestinAberdeen,drawingcustomersfrombothAberdeenand Aberdeenshire.Atthetimeofthe2004capacitystudythisTescowas estimatedtobeturningover£62.8million 2 conveniencegoodsexpenditure from4078sq.m.netfloorspace.Thisequatedtoaveryhighturnoverratioof £15,401persq.m.ForcomparisonTesco’smostrecentlypublishedaverage UKturnover–knownas“benchmark”turnover–wasonly£12,912per sq.m. 3 TescoDanestonecouldthereforewithstandareasonablyhightrade diversiontoanalternativesuperstore.

2 2001prices 3 MintelUKRetailRankings2011

12 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

4.7MiddletonParkalsolieswithinexpenditureZone25.Ithasafirstgeneration ASDAsuperstore(originallyaFinefare)whichturnedoveranestimated £22.1millionfrom3290sq.m.ofnetconveniencefloorspace,indicatinga turnoverratioin2004of£12,225persq.m.Althoughthisturnoverratiois describedasaveragebythe2004capacitystudy,itisnotfarbelowthemost recentASDAbenchmarkof£12,589persq.m.TheASDAatMiddletonPark alsotakessomeexpenditurefromAberdeenshire,butnotnearlytothesame extentasTescoDanestone.

4.8Zones23(BridgeofDon)and26(OldAberdeen)generateexpenditurebut neitherhasasuperstore,meaningthatexpenditureflowsouttoother locations.

4.9Table1showsthedestinationsofconvenienceexpenditurefromeachofthe threezoneswithintheprimarycatchmentareain2004.

Table1:OriginsandDestinationsofConvenienceExpenditureinPrimaryCatchmentArea(2004) Origins Destinations(percentages) Zone Expenditure Citycentre Danestone Dyce Middleton Berryden Local (2004) Park centres

23 £12million5%35%10%43%-8% 25 £32million5%45%5%38%4%2% 26 £57.5million32%10%5%-26%23%

Note:Zone26’s5%expenditureflowtoRosemounthasbeenaddedto“localcentres”

4.10TheretailgeographiesofZones23and25inthenorthofcityshowsimilar characteristics.Bothspendaround80%oftheirconveniencegoods expenditurebetweenTescoatDanestoneandASDAatMiddletonPark. Aberdeencitycentre,Dyceandsmallerlocalshopsattractthebalanceof expenditurefromeachofZones23and25.AsuperstoreatDenmoreRoad wouldbeexpectedtosignificantlyinfluencetheseexpenditureflows, particularlytowardstheeastandaroundtheA90.

4.11Zone26hasaverydifferentretailgeography.Expenditureissplitbetween thecitycentre(MorrisonsinKingStreetandmetro-formatstores),Berryden (Sainsbury’s)andalsotheextensiverangeofsmallerlocalshopsand centreswithintheurbanareaofOldAberdeen.AsuperstoreatDenmore Roadwouldbeexpectedtoinfluenceexpenditurepatternsinthenorthern sectorofOldAberdeen,particularlyaroundtheA90.

13 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

4.12ThesecondarycatchmentsinAberdeenshirehavenotbeenexamined. TescoatDanestoneandtoalesserextentASDAatMiddletonParkdraw expenditurefromthisarea,achievingmarketpenetrationof10-30% accordingtothe2004study.AsuperstoreintheverynorthofAberdeenon theA90wouldbeexpectedtohaveasignficantinfluenceonexpenditure flowswithinthispartofAberdeenshire.

CompetingLocations

4.13Table2onthenextpagelistsconvenienceoutletsinAberdeennorth,central andwest 4 operatedbythemajorgrocerychainsasatSeptember2012. Retailersarelistedbybrand.Thetablehighlightsthosewhichpotentiallysit withintheprimarycatchment–Zones23,25and26asabove-ofanew storeattheDenmoreRoadsite.Theseexistingstoreswouldshare catchmentexpenditurewiththeproposalsite.

4.14Forthepurposesofthiscapacityassessmenttheprincipalcompetitorsfor theDenmoreRoadsitewillbeothersuperstores.Intheretailsector,like competeswithlikeandsuperstorestakeaveryhighproportionofavailable convenienceexpenditure,asdemonstratedinparagraphs4.6and4.7 above.Afullretailimpactassessmentwouldhowevertakeaccountofthe rangeofotherstores–notablysmallCo-operativeFood,Sainsbury’sLocal, LidlandTescoExpressoutletsinthenorthernhalfofAberdeen–aswellas makinganallowanceforneighbourhoodshopstoo.

4.15Therelevantsuperstoresintheprimarycatchmentare:

• ASDAatMiddletonParkasdiscussedinparagraph4.7.Thissuperstore isapproximately1milefromtheDenmoreRoadsite.Thisisanolder, firstgenerationASDAstoreandislessaccessibletothewider catchmentthanDenmoreRoad,whichisalsolikelytodrawsuccessfully ontheintermediatecatchmentbetweeneachsite.ASDAalsohasa superstoreinthenorthofAberdeenatDyce,howeverthisisfurther awayandwouldnotdirectlycompetewiththesubjectsiteotherthan possiblyatthemarginsofeachsuperstore’scatchment.

4 SuperstorestothesouthsuchasASDAandSainsbury’satGarthdeeoperateinadifferentmarketareaandarenotlisted

14 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

Table2:ExistingandProposedConvenienceStores(nationaloperators) Operator Location Format Distance Status

ExistingStores ASDA MiddletonPark Superstore 1mile ASDARiverviewDrive,DyceSuperstore5miles ASDABoulevardRetailPark,LinksRdSuperstore4miles Tesco KingStreet Express 1mile Tesco LaurelDrive,Danestone TescoExtra 2miles TescoUnionStreetExpress3miles TescoAberdeenSouthSuperstore3.5miles TescoVictoriaStreet,DyceExpress5miles Sainsbury’sBerrydenRoadSuperstore2miles Sainsbury’sGeorgeStreetLocal2miles Sainsbury’sRosemountPlaceLocal2miles Sainsbury’sStNicholasCentreLocal2.4miles Sainsbury’sUnionStreetLocal2.6miles Morrisons KingStreet,Aberdeen 2miles AldiBoulevardRetailPark,LinksRd4miles Lidl KingStreet 1mile LidlInverurieRoad3miles LidlLangStracht3.3miles LidlWellingtonRoad3.6miles Farmfoods160GreatNorthernRoad3.3miles Farmfoods783GreatNorthernRoad3.4miles FarmfoodsGeorgeStreet4miles FarmfoodsLangStracht4.8miles IcelandGreatNorthernRoad3.3miles IcelandBoulevardRetailPark4miles IcelandHolburnStreet4miles Co-operativeFood ScotstownRoad,BridgeofDon 0.5miles Co-operativeFoodTheArcade,HaytonRoad1mile Co-operativeFood85BackHiltonRoad2miles Co-operativeFood466GeorgeStreet2miles Co-operativeFood107GeorgeStreet2.1miles Co-operativeFood104RosemountPlace2.4miles Co-operativeFood204UnionStreet2.6miles Co-operativeFood10CornhillShoppingArcade2.7miles M&SFoodStNicholasStreet3miles M&SFoodUnionSquare4miles Proposals StandardLife Site4,DenmoreRoad, 6970sq.m. 1mile PlanningPermissionin Investments BridgeofDon Principle TescoFormerWoodendHospital 5576sq.m.4.5milesConstructionunderway Annex,RousayDrive MorrisonsFormerSummerhillAcademy, 6320sq.m.4.5milesDetailedconsent.Legal LangStracht challengebyTesco

15 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

• TescoExtraatDanestoneasdiscussedinparagraph4.6.Although slightlyfurtherawayfromthesubjectsite,thisisadominantstorewhich previousstudieshaveestimatedtosignificantlyover-trade,creating potentialforclawbackofexpendituretoBridgeofDonandfromthe sharedcatchmentinbetweenthetwosites.

• MorrisonsoutletinKingStreetwillattractsometradeatthesouthern endofOldAberdeen.Sometradediversionmaybeanticipatedtoa new,large,accessiblesuperstorefurtheruptheA90atDenmoreRoad.

• AretailproposalbyStandardLifeInvestmentsatSite4,DenmoreRoad withinMurcarIndustrialEstatesecuredPlanningPermissioninPrinciple inJune2011.Thesitealreadybenefitsfromretailconsentduetothe presenceofbulkygoodsretailwarehousesoccupiedbyGeneral George,Carpetright,B&Qandonevacantunit.Theproposalisnot specificaboutthetypeofretailingenvisagedandhasnoretailer(s) associatedwiththepotentialredevelopmentofthesite.Thesupporting retailimpactassessmentteststheeffectsofbulkygoods,comparison goodsandconveniencegoods.

2016Projection

4.16The AberdeenandAberdeenshireRetailStudy isnoweightyearsoldand anyformalupdatemaybetwotothreeyearsaway.Rydenhasagood workingrelationshipwiththeCouncils’consultant,KeithHargestPlanning Ltd.,andhasobtainedacopyof2012’sVersion1.6ofthemodel.

4.17Version1.6projectsexpenditurepatternsforwardsasfaras2030.The relevantyearfortheDenmoreRoadproposalis2016.Primarycatchment populationforecasts 5 to2016areprovidedinTable3onthenextpage.

4.18Theresidentpopulationoftheprimarycatchmentisprojectedtogrowbyjust under1.2%annuallytothedesignyearof2016.Populationgrowthisalso expectedtocontinuewellbeyondthisdatethroughouttheforecastperiodto 2030.

4.19Table4(nextpage)indicatesavailableconvenienceexpenditureineach zoneoftheprimarycatchmentattheforecastdates.Availableexpenditureis in2008prices.

5 baseduponGROS2010projections

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Table3:PrimaryCatchmentPopulationForecasts Zone Area 2012 2014 2016

23BridgeofDon661267676926

25MiddletonPark, 178521827118700 Danestone

26OldAberdeen317843253033294

Totals562485756858920

Table4:PrimaryCatchmentConvenienceExpenditureForecasts Zone Area 2012 2014 2016

23BridgeofDon£13.32m£13.91m£14.52m

25MiddletonPark, £35.37m£36.96m£38.62m Danestone

26OldAberdeen£62.71m£65.54m£68.49m

Totals£111.40m£116.41m£121.63m Source:AASRMVersion1.6(KeithHargestPlanningLtd)

4.20Availableconvenienceexpenditureintheprimarycatchmentisprojectedto riseby2.2%annually,aspopulationgrowthiscompoundedbyexpenditure growth.

4.21Retailturnoverateachzonein2016fromVersion1.6ofthemodelisshown inTable5(nextpage).Zone23and25areshownindependently.Themodel wrapsZone26(OldAberdeen)intoAberdeenCityCentreratherthan showingitseparately,thereforeforsimplicitythatZonewillbetreatedasa sourceof“imported”expenditureratherthanaspartoftheprimary catchment.

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Table5:ConvenienceTurnoverat2016byZone Zone Area Turnover Turnoverratio

23BridgeofDon£0.58m£2103persq.m.pa.

25 MiddletonPark £25.62m£12,977persq.m.pa. (ASDA)

Danestone £78.63m£22,348persq.m.pa. (Tesco)

Source:AASRMVersion1.6(KeithHargestPlanningLtd) Tescoturnoverwillinclude102sq.m.addedpost-2004duetomezzanine

4.22BridgeofDon(Zone23)exportsmorethan96%ofits£14.52million expendituretootherlocationsat2016,duetotheabsenceofaconvenience retailoutletofanyscaleormarketprofile.

4.23Zone25isprojectedtoattract£104.25millionconvenienceexpenditureat 2016.Thisis170%higherthantheconvenienceexpendituregenerated withintheZone.ASDAatMiddletonParkisprojectedtoachieveturnoverat arate3%aboveitscurrentUKbenchmarkfigure.TescoatDanestoneis projectedtoincreaseitsturnoversubstantiallyevenfromthehighpositionin 2004toreacharate73%aboveitsUKbenchmark.Thisexceptional turnoverreflectsthelackoflarge,moderncompetitioninthenorthofthecity.

TradeDiversiontoDenmoreRoadSuperstore

4.24AnewsuperstoreatDenmoreRoad,tradingat2016,willdivertexpenditure fromexistinglocationsidentifiedabove.Table6(nextpage)estimatesthe requiredturnoveroftheproposedstore.Notwithstandingplansshowingthe unitas9290sq.m.,asmallergrossfloorareaof7000sq.m.isadoptedas thisfitswithawiderrangeofoperatorsformats(paragraph2.4)andwith recentAberdeensuperstoreproposals(Table2)whicharebetween5574 sq.m.and6970sq.m.

4.25Theproposedstorerequiresanestimatedturnoverof£43.68million.Ofthis, £38.22millionisconveniencegoodsturnoverbaseduponanassumed 6

6 ThecurrentaverageUKbenchmarkturnoverratioforthetopfivesuperstoreoperators–Tesco,ASDA,Sainsbury’s,Wm MorrisonandWaitrose–is£11,870persq.m.

18 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

turnoverratioof£12,000persq.m.perannum.Forcomparison,thisscaleof turnoverliessomewherebetweenthefirstgenerationASDAatMiddleton Parkandthesubstantiallyover-tradingTescoatDanestone.

Table6:ProposedSuperstoreTurnover Size Netfloorspace Convenience Comparison Total (65%) goods(70%) goods turnover (30%)

7000sq.m.4550sq.m.3185sq.m. 1365sq.m. £43.68m @£12,000 @£4,000 =£38.22m =£5.46m

Conveniencegoods:food&drink,tobacco,non-durablehouseholdgoods, newspapersandmagazines Comparisongoods:books,clothing&footwear,furnitureandfurnishings,audio- visual,hardware&DIY,chemists’goods,jewelleryetc, recreationalandmiscellaneousgoods

4.26Thetradediversionrequiredtosupportthisturnoverattheproposalsiteis estimatedinTable7(nextpage).Thislistsretaillocationsandtheirturnover beforeandaftertheintroductionofthenewDenmoreRoadsuperstore.

4.27ThefiguresinTable7arebaseduponassumptions,retailmodelling experienceandfamiliaritywiththeAberdeenandAberdeenshireshopping model.Toprovideadefinitiveassessmentoftradediversionwouldrequire fullspreadsheetmodellingofallaffectedretaillocations,possiblysupported byupdatedhouseholdandshoppersurveysgiventhattheextantcapacity modelisnoweightyearsold.

4.28ClearlytheBridgeofDonZone(23)isthebeneficiaryoftradediversion. Fromthecurrentpositionofnothavingalarge,modernconvenienceretail destination,thesuburbgainsalloftheadditionalexpenditureassociatedwith thenewsuperstore.Aroundone-thirdofthis“new”turnoverisexpenditure clawedbacktoBridgeofDonfromotherlocations.

Table7:TradeDiversiontoNewSuperstore Zone Location Turnoverat2016 Turnoverdiversion Turnoverat2016 withoutnewstore (+or-) with newstore

19 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

Zone23BridgeofDonand £0.58m+£38.22m£38.80m newsuperstore

Zone25 MiddletonPark £25.62m-£2.56m £23.06m (ASDA) (-10%)

Danestone £78.63m-£19.4m £59.23m (Tesco) (-25%)

Zone26OldAberdeen£59.3m( 2011 )-£8.90m >£50.4m (<15%)

NorthernZones Aberdeenshire--£5.73m- (secondary catchment)

LocalshopsAcrossprimaryand --£1.63m- secondarycatchment

Zone26expenditureisaforecastfor2011madein2004,asmodelVersion1.6doesnotshowthisZoneseparately

4.29ASDAatMiddletonParkisafirstgenerationsuperstorewithinahousing arearatherthanlyingonanarterialtransportroute;comparativelyslow expendituregrowthinrecentyearsreflectsthisdominantpositioninitslocal marketbutweakerpositioninthenorthofAberdeenasawhole.With DenmoreRoadtrading,ASDAwillcontinuetoserviceitslocalisedcatchment butsomeinterveningcustomwillbelost.TradediversioninTable7is-10%, leavingthestorestilltradingat93%ofitscurrentUKbenchmark.

4.30TescoatDanestoneisanover-trading,dominantsuperstorefromwhicha new,full-formatandhighly-accessiblesuperstoreatDenmoreRoadwould clawbackorattractsubstantialexpenditure.Thisisassessedas£19.4 million,orapproximatelyhalfofthenewsuperstore’srequiredturnover.Ona stand-alonebasisthis-25%tradediversionwouldleaveTescostilltradingat 30%aboveitscurrentUKbenchmark.

4.31TwoplanningconsentsonthewestsideofAberdeen(TescoandMorrisons, Table2)willalsodrawtradeawayfromexistingstores.However,these proposalswillserveadifferentcatchment.Furthermore,Version1.6ofthe

20 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

shoppingmodelindicatesthatover-tradingiswidespreadinAberdeen. Sainsbury’satBerrydenandGarthdee,andASDAatBoulevardRetailPark andGarthdee,allsignificantlyover-trade.CurrentactivityinAberdeen’s superstoresectormaythereforeleadtoare-orderingofunder-servedareas andover-tradingsuperstores,ratherthananyoveralladverseimpact.

4.32OldAberdeendonates15%ofitsforecastconvenienceexpenditureat2011 tothenewsuperstore,althoughinrealitythiswouldbelessthan15%of 2016’savailableexpenditure.Theprincipallocationsexperiencingmarginal levelsoftradediversionwouldbeSainsbury’satBerryden(whichover- tradesconsiderably),MorrisonsatKingStreet(whichunder-trades)andthe numerouslocal,metroandexpressconvenienceformats.

4.33ThelocationonthenorthernedgeofAberdeenwithdirectaccesstotheA90 wouldmakethesuperstorewell-positionedtoactasanintervening opportunitybetweenthecityandAberdeenshire,whichhasonlypatchy coverageofsuperstoresacrossitsprincipaltowns.TescoatDanestoneand toalesserextentASDAatMiddletonParkalreadyhavemarketpenetration intoAberdeenshire.Atotalof15%ofthesuperstore’sturnoverisshownin Table7asbeingdrawnfromAberdeenshire.

4.34Finally,aresidual4.26%ofthenewsuperstore’sturnoverisdrawnfrom othersmallerstoresaroundtheprimaryandsecondarycatchments.

CumulativeTradeDiversion

4.35AcumulativeimpactscenariowithSite4DenmoreRoad(Table2)should alsobeconsidered.Althoughthatsiteiscurrentlyoccupiedbybulkygoods retailers,ithasanopenconsentforClass1retailingwhichcouldintheory attractarivalsuperstoreoperator.ThesuperstorescenariointheRIA submittedforSite4hasaconvenienceturnoverrequirementof£31.27 million 7.Thisturnoverisdrawnfromexpenditureimport(10%),repatriation ofleakagefromotherlocations(48%)andimpactuponexistingstores (42%).

4.36TheimpactofSite4uponexistingstoresisshownintheRIAas-17%trade diversionfromTescoatDanestoneand-10%fromASDAatMiddletonPark. Table7demonstratesthatTescocouldwithstandthisadditionalimpactand stilltradeabovebenchmark.However,thecumulativeimpactuponASDAof around-20%takingintoconsiderationboththeproposalsite(-10%)andSite

7 7400sq.m.gross@65%netand60%conveniencefloorspace@£10,836=£31.27millionperannum.

21 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

4 (also-10%)wouldraiseconcernsaboutthehealthofthatstore;andinturn theMiddletonParkshoppingcentre.Thepresenceoftwonew,majornew superstoresofferingawiderangeofgoodsinBridgeofDonwouldcurtail MiddletonPark’scatchmenttoamuchmorelocalisedgeographybased uponpedestrian,localbusandshortcar-basedshoppingtrips.

ComparisonGoods

4.37TheproposedsuperstoreatDenmoreRoadwouldalsosellarangeof comparisongoods.Thegoodstobesold,theextentoffloorspaceand anticipatedturnoverarehighlydependentuponthefoodstoreoperatorand format.AssumptionsmadeinTable6yieldedacomparisongoodsturnover requirementof£5.46million.

4.38TheBridgeofDoncatchmentiscurrentlypoorlyservedbycomparison shops.Zones23and25combined(ignoringOldAberdeenwhichiscloserto thecitycentreandtomodernretailparks)generate£79.28million comparisongoodsexpenditureat2016butretainonly£9.13million.The proposedsuperstorewouldrequireonly7%oftheavailableexpenditureand couldachievethisthroughreversalofexpenditureleakagetootherlocations.

4.39Tradediversionfromindividualshopsandcentreswouldthereforebe marginal,particularlyascomparisonshoppingatthenewsuperstorewould tendtotaketheformoflinkedtripswithgroceryshoppingratherthanbeinga destinationinitsownright.

Summary

4.40TheproposedsuperstoreatDenmoreRoadwouldnotcauseunacceptable levelsoftradediversionfromexistingretaillocations.Tradediversionwould bemarginalacrossalllocations,exceptforASDAatMiddletonParkwhich showsatolerable-10%tradeloss,andTescoatDanestonewhich experiencesa-25%tradelosswhichwouldreduce(butnoteliminate)its extremelevelsofover-trading.

4.41ThecumulativeimpacttakingaccountofapossiblesuperstoreatSite4 DenmoreRoadwouldnotbedetrimentaltoTescoatDanestone,butcould raiseconcernsaboutthehealthofASDAandbyimplicationMiddletonPark shoppingcentre.

22 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

5.SummaryandConclusions

5.1RydenwasinstructedbyEuropeanDevelopmentHoldingsLtd.toprovidea strategicretailcapacityassessmentforapotentialsuperstoresiteat DenmoreRoad,BridgeofDon,Aberdeen.

5.2Nationalretailmarketconditionsremaindifficultandinvestmentishighly selective.Convenienceretailingisoneofthefewactivemarketsand Aberdeen’sstrongeconomymakesitatargetlocationfornewinvestment.

5.3Thesequentialassessmentdemonstratesthattherearenosequentially preferablesiteswithintheBridgeofDonarea.Site4atDenmoreRoad occupiesasimilarpositionandbenefitsfromPermissionforClass1retail use.However,thetimingofsuchdevelopmentisconstrainedbyexisting leasesandisunlikelytoproceedinthenearfuture,ifatall.

5.4Shoulditbeimplemented,thedisplacedusescouldbeaccommodatedon theDenmoreRoadsite,therebycontinuingtoservetheBridgeofDonarea.

5.5Retailcapacityassessment 8 demonstratesthattheproposedsuperstoreat DenmoreRoadwouldnotundermineexistingretaillocations.Trade diversionwouldbemarginalacrossalllocations,exceptforASDAat MiddletonParkwhichshowsatolerable-10%tradeloss,andTescoat Danestonewhichexperiencesa-25%tradelossbutwouldcontinuetoover- tradegivenitscurrentexceptionalperformance.Comparisongoods expenditureattheproposedsuperstorewouldcauseonlymarginaltrade diversionfromadispersedcatchment,andwouldreversesomeofthevery highexpenditureleakagefromnorthernAberdeen.

5.6ThecumulativeimpacttakingaccountofapossiblesuperstoreatSite4 DenmoreRoadwouldnotthreatentheviabilityofTescoatDanestone,but couldraiseconcernsaboutthehealthofASDAandbyimplicationMiddleton Parkshoppingcentre.However,bothareunlikelytoproceedandoneor othercouldcontinuetoprovidefornon-foodretailing.

5.7ItisclearfromthiscapacityassessmentthattheAberdeensuperstoresector hasproducedonlyalimitedresponsetoastrongcityeconomyanda

8 KeithHargestPlanningLtdkindlyprovidedRydenwithaccesstoextractsofVersion1.6oftheAberdeenand Aberdeenshirestrategicretailmodel(AASRM).Thisupdateisnotpubliclyavailable.

23 Ryden September2012 DenmoreRoad,Aberdeen RetailCapacityAssessment

growingpopulation.Updatedshoppingmodeldatademonstrateshighlevels ofover-tradingatmanyofthecity’sestablishedsuperstores.Current proposalstothewestofthecitymaypartiallyalleviateover-tradingacross thewidercity.HoweverthesestoreswillstillleavenorthernAberdeen aroundBridgeofDonunder-servedbothinquantitativeterms,andalsoin qualitativetermsduetotheabsenceofamodern,fullformatsuperstoreas TescoatDanestoneistoofareasttoservicetheexpandingBridgeofDon.

5.8Thisreporthasproducedastrategicassessmentofretailcapacitytosupport aproposednewsuperstoreatDenmoreRoad,BridgeofDon.Thework requiredtoextendthistoprovideafullretailimpactassessmentwouldbe:

• agreeretailexpenditureandfloorspacedatasetswiththeplanning authorityAberdeenCityCouncil;ifAASRMVersion1.6canbeusedit maynotbenecessarytocommissionahouseholdsurvey

• agreesequentialtowncentresandneighbourhoodcentresandsiteswith planningauthority(thismayalsoinvolveAberdeenshireCouncil)

• assesstheimplicationsofplannedadditionalhouse-buildingover-and- abovethecurrentlyforecastpopulationgrowthintheprimarycatchment

• conductfullspreadsheetmodellingofexpenditureflowsacrossprimary andsecondaryshoppercatchments;addsmallconveniencestoresand neighbourhoodshops;anddevelopthecomparisongoodsassessment

• forthosecentreswhichtheplanningauthorityadvisesareprotectedby policy(potentiallyincludingcentresinAberdeenshire),assessthe impactsoftradediversionforconvenienceturnover,allturnoverand indicatorsofvitalityandviability(eg.vacancyrates,propertyvalues)

• provideRIAconclusions

Ryden September2012

24 Ryden September2012 Thankyoufortakingthetimetocompletethisform. Pleasereturncompletedformsto:

LocalDevelopmentPlanTeam Enterprise,PlanningandInfrastructure AberdeenCityCouncil BusinessHub4 GroundFloorNorth MarischalCollege BroadStreet Aberdeen AB101AB

Oremailitto: [email protected] March2013 www.aberdeeencity.gov.uk