On the occurrence of earthquakes and their global characteristics

Läslo G. Evers Earth: a hot sphere

› The solid earth is slowly cooling (5 billion years) › Heat was captured during its formation and still generated by radioactivity › Heat is driving plate tectonics

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 2 9 October 2019 The evolution of Pangaea

› The super continent Pangaea broke up › Laurasia and Gondwana precursors › Current tectonic plates were formed

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 3 9 October 2019 Current plate tectonics

› Zones of convergence and divergence › Plate movements in the order of cm/year

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 4 9 October 2019 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 5 9 October 2019 Recycling of the earth’s crust

› Zones of convergence and divergence › Crust is created, then subducts and is recycled through the earth’s mantle

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 6 9 October 2019 GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD MAP

ILP Produced by the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), ING a demonstration project of the UN/International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction, conducted by the International Lithosphere Program. Global map assembled by D. Giardini, G. Grünthal, K. Shedlock, and P. Zhang ICSU SED 1999 SED

180° 150° 120° 90° 60° 30° 0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° 180° 90° 90°

IASPEI SSB

Nordvik

UNESCO

Fairbanks Reykjavík Yakutsk Anchorage Helsinki 60° Oslo 60° Stockholm Tallinn St. Petersburg Okhotsk

Riga Edinburgh Kobenhavn Moskva Vilnius Omsk Novosibirsk Minsk Dublin Manchester Birmingham Amsterdam Warszawa Irkutsk London Berlin Bruxelles Frankfurt Praha Kiev Vancouver Paris Bratislava Seattle München Wien Ulaanbaatar Budapest Bern Ljubljana Kishinev Montreal Milano Zagreb Harbin Ottawa Beograd Toronto Bucuresti Sarajevo Almaty Urümqi Detroit Sofiya Boston Titograd Bishkek Shenyang Vladivostok Roma Skopje T'Bilisi Tashkent Chicago Tirane Salt Lake City New York Barcelona Madrid Napoli Yerevan Baku Beijing Denver Philadelphia Ankara Washington D.C. Lisboa Dushanbe Tianjin P'yôngyang Tunis Ashkhabad San Francisco Algiers Athinai Seoul Lanzhou Nagoya Tokyo Nicosia Tehran Pusan Osaka Käbol Yokohama Los Angeles Rabat Bayrüt Dimashq Tel Aviv-Yafo Baghdad Dallas Taräbulus Alexandria Amman Lahore Islamabad Shanghai 30° Houston Wuhan 30° Cairo Al Kuwayt Kathmandu Delhi Thimphu Miami Doha Taipei Ar Riyad Karachi La Habana Masqat Dhaka Guangzhou Abu Dhabi Calcutta Hanoi Hong Kong

Mexico City Port-au-Prince San Juan Bombay Santo Domingo Nouakchott Kingston Belmopan Hyderabad Yangon Viangchan Khartoum Asmera Tegucigalpa Dakar San'ä' Guatemala Manila Banjul Niamey Krung Thep San Salvador Bamako Bangalore Madras N'Djamena Managua Bissau Ouagadougou Dijbouti Phnom Penh Port of Spain Panama Caracas Ho Chi Minh City San Jose Conakry Freetown Ädïs Äbeba

Georgetown Porto Novo Colombo Paramaribo Lagos Monrovia Abidjan Accra Lome Bandar Seri Begawan Rémire Bogota Bangui Malabo Yaoundé Kuala Lumpur Muqdisho Kampala Singapore 0° Quito Libreville 0° Nairobi Kigali Manaus Brassaville Bujumbura Kinshasa Jakarta Dar es Salaam Recife Luanda Port Moresby

Lima

Lilongwe

Brasília Lusaka La Paz Harare

Belo Horizonte Antananarivo

Windhoek São Paulo Rio De Janeiro Asuncion Gaborone Pretoria Maputo Johannesburg Mbabane

Maseru 30° 30° Perth

Santiago Cape Town Sydney Buenos Aires Montevideo Canberra Robinson Projection Scale: 1:35,000,000 At The Equator Melbourne

Wellington

PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (m/s2 ) 10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE IN 50 YEARS, 475-year return period

0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.8 LOW MODERATE HIGH VERY HIGH HAZARD HAZARD HAZARD HAZARD 60° 60° 180° 150° 120° 90° 60° 30° 0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° 180° 7

Richter scale

› The measured amplitude by a seismometer represents the strength › Logarithmic scale: x1 increase in amplitude means x10 in strength and x31 in energy release › Scale from 1 to 9 (and larger)

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 8 9 October 2019 Mercalli intensity

› Mercalli scale (or MMI) represents the effect of earthquake › Measured by strong motion, i.e., accelerometers instead of seismometers › Scale from 1 to 12

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 9 9 October 2019 Shakemaps

› Shakemaps show the actual impact of an earthquake › Include radiation pattern and local near surface geology

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 10 9 October 2019 preparatory commission for the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban INTERNATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM treaty organization GLOBAL OVERVIEW - CERTIFIED STATIONS AND NON-CERTIFIED STATIONS 08 OCTOBER 2019

AS072 RN15 IS18 RN49 AS016 RN55 AS091 AS073 AS090 IS53 IS37 PS28 PS34 AS017 RN57 PS49 AS027 AS038 RN76 PS09 RN34 AS012 AS086 RN16 IS43 RN56 AS088 PS27 PS17 AS082 AS101 RN63 RL07 RN61 PS35 AS093 AS013 RN54 RN59 AS110 RL13 IS44 AS085 PS33 RN71 PS10 AS104 AS084 PS36 HA02 IS46 RN60 AS015 PS08 AS094 AS059 AS057 AS112 RL15 AS087 RN45 AS115 IS26 PS45 IS31 AS058 IS10 AS026 IS34PS12 RN14 RL08 RN33 PS19 AS089 IS56 RN17 RL03 PS25 IS45 AS102 PS23 AS092 RL16 AS083 AS020 RN58 AS014 RL05 AS081 PS32 RN20 PS37 AS054 PS48 AS060 AS109 RL10 RL06 AS113 PS22 IS42 PS40 PS43 AS003 IS15 RN70 HA07 PS21 RN38 PS47 RN75 PS44 RN21 RN74 RN53 IS48 AS050 IS29 PS31 RL11 AS107 PS42 AS049 PS13 AS108 AS111 AS036 RN36 IS30 AS023 IS57 AS056 PS29 AS051 AS053 IS51 AS066 RN41 AS047 RL09 AS022 IS58 PS46 AS029 AS048 RN40 AS046 RN44 RN72 IS38 AS068 AS052 RN78 IS16 AS055 PS16 RN37 AS021 AS065 PS38 AS074 AS007 RN22 IS60 RN79 HA11 AS063 IS59 RN77 HA06 AS116 HA05 RN43 PS41 AS064 RN48 AS096 RN28 RN52 AS037 IS11 AS105 AS097 AS062 RN65 AS080 PS26 IS19 RN80 AS028 AS025 AS118 RN25 RN50 AS117 IS25 IS17 AS030 RN31 IS12 AS100 AS079 IS39 PS15 IS28 PS14 AS033 PS11 RN35 RN13 RN42 AS043 RN39 IS20 AS039 PS20 PS24 RN24 AS010 AS103 AS042 RN51 AS034 IS32 AS041 IS40 HA08 AS044 AS076 AS011 IS50 RN66 AS077 RN64 AS040 RN12 HA10 IS52 IS21 AS075 AS098 IS06 AS045 AS078 RN08 RN09 AS095 PS18 IS08 PS07 AS119 RN27 PS06 AS008 IS09 RN67 AS031 IS35 AS061 IS24 AS005 PS02 RN06 RN26 AS024 AS067 IS33 AS120 IS07 AS004 AS032 RN23 RL04 RN29 IS22 AS018 AS019 RN11 PS30 AS009 PS03 RN19 RN02 IS41 RL14 IS13 PS39 RN10 IS47 AS070 AS006 HA03 AS001 RN01 AS099 HA01 PS04 IS14 IS49 RL01 RN62 IS04 HA09 RN04 RN47 PS01 RN68 RL02 AS071 RN03 IS01 RL12 IS05 RN46 AS069 IS36 HA04 IS23 RN30

RN18 IS02 AS002 RN07

AS106 IS54 RN73 PS05 RN32 RN05 IS03 IS27 AS035 STATION STATUS RN69 PS50 IS55

AS114 DATE 08 Oct 2019 The boundaries and presentation of material on TOTAL STATIONS 337 this map does not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Provisional Technical PLANNING 25 Secretariat concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authorities, UNDER CONSTRUCTION 5 or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or 11 INSTALLED 9 boundaries. CERTIFIED 298 Primary Seismic Auxiliary Seismic Infrasound Hydroacoustic Radionuclide Radionuclide w/ Noble Gas Radionuclide Lab WWW.CTBTO.ORG 12 Earthquake statistics

› Natural earthquakes follow the Gutenberg-Richter relation › Reported apparent increases in activity are due to instrumentation

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 13 9 October 2019 The future?

› In 250 Myrs: Pangaea proxima, Pangaea ultima? › Earthquakes will keep releasing the stress

Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut 14 9 October 2019