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US Election 2016: LGBTQ Candidate Watch

Andrew Reynolds (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) Charles W. Gossett (California State University, Sacramento)

There is overwhelming evidence to show that openly gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender and queer people in elected office have a huge role to play in changing hearts and minds. We know that a single voice in a legislature can dramatically alter the tone of debate and improve laws that affect the queer community. When there is no voice in the room – as was the case in the North Carolina state legislature in March 2016 –homophobic and transphobic legislation like HB2 happens.

If you identify as LGBTQ, or are an ally, there is much to watch as the election returns come in next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. As the Presidential race consumes our attention, down ballot LGBTQ candidates will be battling to represent towns and cities across America.

The seven out incumbent congressmen and women all look likely to be re- elected. The largest LGBTQ congressional caucus in history was eight when Mike Michaud () was also out in the House in 2013. But next Tuesday the record could be broken with Angie Craig (MN2), Matt Heinz (AZ2) and Denise Juneau (MT1) all with decent shots of ousting incumbent Republicans. Brady Walkinshaw (WA 7) and Jim Gray (KY Senate) could add to those record numbers but Walkinshaw faces an uphill battle against the equally progressive Democrat, , who beat him by 17% in the primary and it remains a long shot for Gray to oust Rand Paul in Kentucky. Other candidates to watch are Democrat Jim Moeller in the 3rd who hopes to benefit from the Trump down ballot effect in his race to oust the incumbent Republican, and Republican Paul Babeu (AZ1) who, if elected, would be the first out Republican elected to the House. Clay Cope in the Connecticut 5th is the Republican candidate in a traditionally safe Democratic district and Bao Nguyen is head-to-head with another Democrat in the California who bested him by nearly 29% in the blanket primary.

However, the US remains far behind the curve. The cohort in the House of Representatives would have to hit ten before America would make it into the top-ten list of LGBTQ inclusive parliaments around the world. (For example, there are 39 out LGB MPs in the British House of Commons, about 6% of the total membership).

Kate Brown of Oregon should easily cement her position as the only out LGBTQ Governor but the real action will be in the state house races. Over 100 out candidates are running but, despite all the recent legal and social progress on gay rights, the number of LGBTQ statehouse members looks set to decline for the third straight year.

Right now we have been able to identify 111 incumbent out LGBTQ State House members. Nineteen are not running again for a variety of reasons and nineteen are not up for re-election this cycle. Five are attempting to move up to the state Senate from the state House. There are 38 new candidates. If all the incumbents win (68) and all of the members now running for the Senate win (5) and all those new candidates with a strong chance of winning, do win (15) - along with the 19 members not up for re-election - that is still only 107.

Most worryingly the number of states with zero LGBTQ voice in their state legislatures will go from ten to at least thirteen. Delaware, Hawaii, and South Dakota are losing their only LGBTQ members. That is an extra 3 million Americans living in states without a single out LGBTQ voice in their state capital.

Unsurprisingly, there is a dramatic partisan divide in the states. There are only six Republicans in our 2016 database compared to 142 Democratic incumbents or new candidates. Two of the Republican incumbents are running again, one is stepping down, one is not up for re-election. One new Republican candidate - in New Hampshire –is likely to be elected – the other not, keeping the GOP LGBTQ numbers frozen at four.

Transgender candidates remain incredibly rare. Misty Snow and Misty Plowright will heroically lose their congressional races in Utah and Colorado but Rachael Booth does have a small chance of becoming the first ever out trans person to take statehouse office in the Grafton 15th House District of New Hampshire. In 2014 a Republican won the seat by 500 votes but next Tuesday there is no incumbent and there is an outside chance Booth could make history. There are currently only three transgender Americans in elected office in all of the nation (a school board member in Massachusetts, a Judge in California, and a local alderperson in Wisconsin).

OUT LGBTQ CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES November 2016

State Candidate District Party PVI Paul Babeu AZ 1 Rep (open) ARIZONA Matt Heinz AZ 2 Dem (R+3) Kyrsten Sinema AZ 9 Dem (R+1) CALIFORNIA Mark Takano CA 41 Dem (D+9) Bao Nguyen CA 46 Dem (D+9) COLORADO Jared Polis CO 2 Dem (D+8) Misty Plowright CO 5 Dem (R+13) CONNECTICUT Clay Cope CT 5 Rep (D+3) MINNESOTA Angie Craig MN 2 Dem (open) MONTANA Denise Juneau MT 1 Dem (R+7) KENTUCKY Jim Gray Senate Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Shawn O’Connor NH1 Ind (R+1) NEW YORK Sean P Maloney NY 18 Dem (even) RHODE ISLAND David Cicilline RI 1 Dem (D+15) UTAH Misty Snow Senate Dem WASHINGTON Jim Moeller WA 3 Dem (R+2) Brady Walkinshaw WA 7 Dem (D+29) WISCONSIN Mark Pocan WI 2 Dem (D+17) http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings. PVI: Partisan Voting Index

OUT LGBTQ STATE LEGISLATIVE CANDIDATES November 2016

STATE Office Holder District Party Key Incumbent District Party New Candidate District Party

ARIZONA Robert Meza Senate 30 Dem ARIZONA Daniel Hernandez House 2 Dem CALIFORNIA Senate 39 Dem CALIFORNIA Senate 33 Dem CALIFORNIA Cathleen Galgiani Senate 5 Dem CALIFORNIA House 13 Dem CALIFORNIA House 28 Dem CALIFORNIA House 60 Dem CALIFORNIA House 78 Dem CALIFORNIA Senate 11 Dem CALIFORNIA Matthew Craffey House 50 Rep CALIFORNIA Greg Rodriguez House 42 Dem COLORADO Dominick Moreno Senate 32 Dem COLORADO Paul Rosenthal House 9 Dem COLORADO Joann Ginal House 52 Dem COLORADO Leslie Herod House 8 Dem CONNECTICUT Beth Bye Senate 5 Dem CONNECTICUT John F. Scott House 40 Rep David Richardson House 113 Dem FLORIDA Ken Keechl House 93 Dem FLORIDA Beth Tuura House 47 Dem FLORIDA Carlos Smith House 49 Dem FLORIDA Jennifer Webb House 69 Dem GEORGIA Karla Drenner House 85 Dem GEORGIA Keisha Waites House 60 Dem GEORGIA Park Cannon House 58 Dem GEORGIA Sam Park House 101 Dem GEORGIA Bob Gibeling House 54 Dem IDAHO John McCrostie House 16A Dem IOWA Liz Bennett House 65 Dem IOWA Bryce Smith House 18 Dem ILLINOIS Greg Harris House 13 Dem ILLINOIS Kelly Cassidy House 14 Dem ILLINOIS Sam Yingling House 62 Dem INDIANA Dana Black House 88 Dem MAINE Henry Beck Senate 16 Dem MAINE House 38 Dem MAINE Andrew McLean House 27 Dem MAINE Senate 31 Dem MAINE House 81 Dem MAINE House 11 Dem MASSACHUSETTS Elizabeth Malia House 11-Suffolk Dem MASSACHUSETTS Sarah Peake House 4-Barnstable Dem MASSACHUSETTS Kate Hogan House 3-Middlesex Dem MASSACHUSETTS Stan Rosenberg Senate Hampshire Dem MASSACHUSETTS Jack Lewis House 7-Middlesex Dem MASSACHUSETTS Julian Cyr Senate Cape Dem MICHIGAN Jeremy Moss House 35 Dem MICHIGAN Jon Hoadley House 60 Dem MICHIGAN Tim Sneller House 50 Dem MINNESOTA Karen Clark House 62A Dem MINNESOTA Scott Dibble Senate 61 Dem MINNESOTA Susan Allen House 62B Dem MINNESOTA Erin Maye Quade House 57A Dem MISSOURI Randy Dunn House 23 Dem MISSOURI Greg Razer House 25 Dem MONTANA Bryce Bennett House 91 Dem MONTANA Andrea Olsen House 100 Dem NEVADA David Parks Senate 7 Dem NEVADA Patricia Spearman Senate 1 Dem NEVADA Kelvin Atkinson Senate 4 Dem NEVADA Nelson Araujo House 3 Dem NEVADA Devon Reese Senate 15 Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Ed Butler House 7 Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Robert Theberge House 3 Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Elizabeth Edwards House 11 Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Aaron Gill House 2 Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Rachael Booth House 15 Dem NEW HAMPSHIRE Daniel Innis Senate 24 Rep NEW MEXICO Jacob Candelaria Senate 26 Dem NEW MEXICO Liz Stefanics Senate 39 Dem NEW YORK Deborah Glick House 66 Dem NEW YORK Daniel J. O'Donnell House 69 Dem NEW YORK Matthew Titone House 61 Dem NEW YORK Harry Bronson House 138 Dem NEW YORK Brad Hoylman Senate 27 Dem NEW YORK John DeVito Senate 3 Dem NORTH CAROLINA Cecil Brockman House 60 Dem NORTH CAROLINA Jane Campbell House 98 Dem NORTH DAKOTA Joshua Boschee House 44 Dem NORTH DAKOTA Kyle Thorson House 18 Dem OHIO Nickie Antonio House 13 Dem OHIO Tommy Greene House 16 Dem OREGON Tina Kotek House 44 Dem OREGON Rob Nosse House 42 Dem OREGON Paul Southwick House 37 Dem OREGON Karin Power House 41 Dem OREGON Greg Delgado Senate 27 Dem PENNSYLVANIA Brian Sims House 182 Dem RHODE ISLAND Deb Ruggiero House 74 Dem RHODE ISLAND Donna Nesselbush Senate 15 Dem TEXAS Mary Gonzalez House 75 Dem TEXAS Celia Israel House 50 Dem VERMONT Bill Lippert House 4-2 Chitt Dem VERMONT Matt Trieber House 3-Windham Dem VERMONT Joanna Cole House 6-1 Chitt Dem VERMONT Debbie Ingram Senate Chitt Dem WASHINGTON Laurie Jinkins House 27A Dem WASHINGTON Christine Kilduff House 28B Dem WASHINGTON Joan McBride House 48B Dem WASHINGTON House 43A Dem WASHINGTON Dan Shih House 43A Dem WASHINGTON Kathy Gillespie House 18B Dem WEST VIRGINIA Stephen Skinner Senate 16 Dem WEST VIRGINIA Rod Snyder House 67 Dem WISCONSIN Tim Carpenter Senate 3 Dem WISCONSIN JoCasta Zamarippa House 8 Dem WISCONSIN Todd Novak House 51 Rep WISCONSIN Mark Spreitzer House 45 Dem WISCONSIN Joe Huftel House 75 Dem WYOMING Cathy Connolly House 13 Dem

Key INCUMBENT District Party New Candidate District Party

State Legislators Not Up for Re-election in 2016 ALABAMA Patricia Todd House 54 Dem COLORADO Lucia Guzman Senate 34 Dem IOWA Matt McCoy Senate 21 Dem Maggie McIntosh House 43 Dem MARYLAND Richard Madaleno Senate 18 Dem MARYLAND Anne R. Kaiser House 14 Dem MARYLAND Mary Washington House 43 Dem MARYLAND House 19 Dem MARYLAND House 46 Dem NEW JERSEY Reed Gusciora House 15 Dem NEW JERSEY Tim Eustace House 38 Dem NORTH DAKOTA Randy Boehning House 27 Republican OKLAHOMA Kay Floyd Senate 46 Dem UTAH Jim Dabakis Senate 2 Dem VIRGINIA Adam Ebbin Senate 30 Dem VIRGINIA Mark Sickles House 43 Dem VIRGINIA Mark Levine House 45 Dem WASHINGTON Marko Liias Senate 21 Dem WASHINGTON Senate 43 Dem

Data complied by the UNC LGBTQ Representation and Rights Research Initiative, Olivia Jackson-Jordan and Charles W. Gossett. https://lgbtqrepresentationandrights.org

We will be live tweeting LGBTQ results throughout election night @AndyReynoldsUNC

The UNC LGBTQ Representation and Rights Research Initiative is currently the only comprehensive source of data for use by scholars interested in the issue of LGBTQ representation. The Center welcomes information from anyone with knowledge of LGBTQ elected legislators and other elected officeholders in order that we may keep the most accurate information possible. Send information to: [email protected]