Robust Variational Autoencoders for Outlier Detection and Repair of Mixed-Type Data

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Robust Variational Autoencoders for Outlier Detection and Repair of Mixed-Type Data Robust Variational Autoencoders for Outlier Detection and Repair of Mixed-Type Data Sim~aoEduardo∗1 Alfredo Naz´abal∗2 Christopher K. I. Williams12 Charles Sutton123 1School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, UK 2The Alan Turing Institute, UK; 3Google Research Abstract et al., 2017), annotations of anomalous cells are often not readily available in practice. Instead, unsupervised We focus on the problem of unsupervised cell OD attempts to infer the underlying clean distribution, outlier detection and repair in mixed-type tab- and explains outliers as instances that deviate from that ular data. Traditional methods are concerned distribution. It is important to focus on the joint dis- only on detecting which rows in the dataset tribution over features, because although some outliers are outliers. However, identifying which cells can be easily identified as anomalous by considering corrupt a specific row is an important problem only the marginal distribution of the feature, many in practice, and the very first step towards others are only detectable within the context of the repairing them. We introduce the Robust other features (section 2.2 of (Chandola et al., 2009)). Variational Autoencoder (RVAE), a deep gen- Recently deep models outperformed traditional ones erative model that learns the joint distribution for tabular data tasks (Klambauer et al., 2017), cap- of the clean data while identifying the out- turing their underlying structure better. They are an lier cells, allowing their imputation (repair). attractive choice for OD, since they have the flexibility RVAE explicitly learns the probability of each to model a wide variety of clean distributions. How- cell being an outlier, balancing different likeli- ever OD work has mostly focused on image datasets, hood models in the row outlier score, making repairing dirty pixels instead of cells in tabular data, the method suitable for OD in mixed-type e.g. (Wang et al., 2017b; Zhou and Paffenroth, 2017; datasets. We show experimentally that not Akrami et al., 2019). only RVAE performs better than several state- Outliers present unique challenges to deep generative of-the-art methods in cell OD and repair for models. First, most work focuses on detecting anoma- tabular data, but also that is robust against lous data rows, without detecting which specific cells the initial hyper-parameter selection. in a row are problematic (Redyuk et al., 2019; Schelter et al., 2018). Work on cell-level detection and repair often focuses on real-valued features, e.g. images (Zhou 1 Introduction and Paffenroth, 2017; Wang et al., 2017b; Schlegl et al., 2017), or does not provide a principled way to detect The existence of outliers in real world data is a problem anomalous cells (Nguyen and Vien, 2018). Since focus is data scientists face daily, so outlier detection (OD) has on row OD, not enough care is given to cell granularity, been extensively studied in the literature (Chandola which means it is often difficult to properly repair the et al., 2009; Emmott et al., 2015; Hodge and Austin, dirty cells, e.g. large number of columns exist or when 2004). The task is often unsupervised, meaning that the data scientist is not a domain expert. Second, tabu- we do not have annotations indicating whether indi- lar data is often mixed-type, including both continuous vidual cells in the data table are clean or anomalous. and categorical columns. Although modelling mixed- Although supervised OD algorithms have been pro- type data has been explored (Nazabal et al., 2018; posed (Lee et al., 2018; An and Cho, 2015; Schlegl Vergari et al., 2019), the difficulty arises when han- ∗ Joint first authorship. dling outliers. Standard outlier scores are based on the probability that the model assigns to a cell, but these values are not comparable between likelihood models, Proceedings of the 23rdInternational Conference on Artificial performing poorly for mixed-type data. Finally, the Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 2020, Palermo, Italy. effect of outliers in unsupervised learning can be insidi- PMLR: Volume 108. Copyright 2020 by the author(s). ous. Since deep generative models are highly flexible, Robust Variational Autoencoders for Outlier Detection and Repair of Mixed-Type Data they are not always robust against outliers (Hendrycks lihood pθ(xndjzn) differently for each feature type. For and Dietterich, 2019), overfitting to anomalous cells. real features pθ(xndjzn) = N (xndjmd(zn); σd), where When the model overfits, it cannot identify these cells σd is a global parameter. For categorical features as outliers, because it has modelled them as part of pθ(xndjzn) = f(ad(zn)), where ad(zn) is an unnor- the clean distribution, and consequently, most repair malized vector of probabilities for each category and proposals are skewed towards the dirty values, and not f is the softmax function. All md(zn) and ad(zn) are the underlying clean ones. parameterized by feed-forward networks. Our main contributions are: (i) Our Robust Varia- As exact inference for pθ(znjxn) is generally intractable, tional Autoencoder (RVAE), a novel fully unsupervised a variational posterior qφ(znjxn) is used; in VAEs this is deep generative model for cell-level OD and repair for also known as the encoder. It is modelled by a Gaussian mixed-type tabular data. It uses a two-component mix- distribution with parameters µ(xn) and Σ(xn) ture model for each feature, with one component for clean data, and the other component that robustifies qφ(znjxn) = N (znjµ(xn); Σ(xn)) (2) the model by isolating outliers. (ii) RVAE models the underlying clean data distribution by down-weighting where φ = fµ(xn); Σ(xn)g are feed-forward neural the impact of anomalous cells, providing a competitive networks, and Σ(xn) is a diagonal covariance matrix. outlier score for cells and a superior estimate of cell VAEs are trained by maximizing the lower bound on repairs. (iii) We present a hybrid inference scheme for the marginal log-likelihood called the evidence lower optimizing the model parameters, combining amortized bound (ELBO), given by and exact variational updates, which proves superior standard amortized inference. (iv) RVAE allows us to N D present an outlier score that is commensurate across 1 X X L = Eqφ(znjxn) [log pθ(xndjzn)] mixed-type data. (v) RVAE is robust against the selec- N n=1 d=1 tion of its hyper-parameters, while other OD methods −D (q (z jx )jjp(z )); (3) suffer from fine tuning of their parameters to each KL φ n n n specific dataset. where the neural network parameters of the decoder θ and encoder φ are learnt with a gradient-based opti- 2 Variational Autoencoders mizer. When VAEs are used for OD, typically an in- stance in a tabular dataset is an outlier if the expected We consider a tabular dataset X with n 2 f1; ··· ;Ng likelihood Eqφ(znjxn) [log pθ(xnjzn)] is small (An and instances and d 2 f1; ··· ;Dg features, where each cell Cho, 2015; Wang et al., 2017b). xnd in the dataset can be real (continuous), xnd 2 R, or categorical, xnd 2 f1; ::; Cdg with Cd the number of unique categories of feature d. Cells in the dataset are 3 Robust Variational Autoencoder potentially corrupted with an unknown noising process (RVAE) appropriate for the feature type. The objective in this work is not only detecting the anomalous instances in To improve VAEs for OD and repair, we want to make the dataset, termed row outliers, but also determining them more robust, by automatically identifying poten- the specific subset of cells that are anomalous, termed tial outliers during training, so they are downweighted cell outliers, proposing potential repair values for them. when training the generative model. We also want A common approach to unsupervised OD is to build a cell-level outlier score which is comparable across a generative model p(X) that models the distribution continuous and categorical attributes. We can achieve of clean data. A powerful class of deep generative both goals by modifying the generative model. models are variational autoencoders (VAEs) (Kingma We define here our robust variational autoencoder and Welling, 2014), which model p(X) as (RVAE), a deep generative model based on a two- N component mixture model likelihood (decoder) per fea- Y Z p(X) = dzn p(zn)pθ(xnjzn) (1) ture, which isolates the outliers during training. RVAE n=1 is composed of a clean component pθ(xndjzn) for each dimension d, explaining the clean cells, and an outlier QD where pθ(xnjzn) = d=1 pθ(xndjzn) and pθ(xndjzn) is component p0(xnd), explaining the outlier cells. The K the conditional likelihood of feature d, zn 2 R is mixing variable wnd 2 f0; 1g acts as a gate to determine the latent representation of instance xn, and p(zn) = whether cell xnd should be modelled by the clean com- N (0; I) is an isotropic multivariate Gaussian prior. To ponent (wnd = 1) or the outlier component (wnd = 0). handle mixed-type data, we choose the conditional like- We define the marginal likelihood of the mixture model Sim~aoEduardo∗1, Alfredo Naz´abal∗2, Christopher K. I. Williams12, Charles Sutton123 model under dataset X as1 3.1 Outlier Model N Y X Z The purpose of the outlier distribution p (x ) is to p(X) = dz p(z )p(w )p(x jz ; w ); (4) 0 nd n n n n n explain the outlier cells in the dataset, completely n=1 w n removing their effect in the optimization of the pa- D Y rameters of clean component p . For categorical p(x jz ; w ) = p (x jz )wnd p (x )1−wnd ; (5) θ n n n θ nd n 0 nd features, we propose using the uniform distribution d=1 −1 p0(xnd) = Cd .
Recommended publications
  • Obtaining Well Calibrated Probabilities Using Bayesian Binning
    Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence Obtaining Well Calibrated Probabilities Using Bayesian Binning Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini1, Gregory F. Cooper1;2, and Milos Hauskrecht1;3 1Intelligent Systems Program, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA 2Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA 3Computer Science Department, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA Abstract iments to perform), medicine (e.g., deciding which therapy Learning probabilistic predictive models that are well cali- to give a patient), business (e.g., making investment deci- brated is critical for many prediction and decision-making sions), and others. However, model calibration and the learn- tasks in artificial intelligence. In this paper we present a new ing of well-calibrated probabilistic models have not been non-parametric calibration method called Bayesian Binning studied in the machine learning literature as extensively as into Quantiles (BBQ) which addresses key limitations of ex- for example discriminative machine learning models that isting calibration methods. The method post processes the are built to achieve the best possible discrimination among output of a binary classification algorithm; thus, it can be classes of objects. One way to achieve a high level of model readily combined with many existing classification algo- calibration is to develop methods for learning probabilistic rithms. The method is computationally tractable, and em- models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. However, this ap- pirically accurate, as evidenced by the set of experiments proach would require one to modify the objective function reported here on both real and simulated datasets. used for learning the model and it may increase the com- putational cost of the associated optimization task.
    [Show full text]
  • Calibrated Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning
    Calibrated Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning and intuition on how to apply calibration in reinforcement Probabilistic Models This paper focuses on probabilistic learning. dynamics models T (s0|s, a) that take a current state s 2S and action a 2A, and output a probability distribution over We validate our approach on benchmarks for contextual future states s0. Web represent the output distribution over the bandits and continuous control (Li et al., 2010; Todorov next states, T (·|s, a), as a cumulative distribution function et al., 2012), as well as on a planning problem in inventory F : S![0, 1], which is defined for both discrete and management (Van Roy et al., 1997). Our results show that s,a continuous Sb. calibration consistently improves the cumulative reward and the sample complexity of model-based agents, and also en- hances their ability to balance exploration and exploitation 2.2. Calibration, Sharpness, and Proper Scoring Rules in contextual bandit settings. Most interestingly, on the A key desirable property of probabilistic forecasts is calibra- HALFCHEETAH task, our system achieves state-of-the-art tion. Intuitively, a transition model T (s0|s, a) is calibrated if performance, using 50% fewer samples than the previous whenever it assigns a probability of 0.8 to an event — such leading approach (Chua et al., 2018). Our results suggest as a state transition (s, a, s0) — thatb transition should occur that calibrated uncertainties have the potential to improve about 80% of the time. model-based reinforcement learning algorithms with mini- 0 mal computational and implementation overhead. Formally, for a discrete state space S and when s, a, s are i.i.d.
    [Show full text]
  • Offline Deep Models Calibration with Bayesian Neural Networks
    Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2019 OFFLINE DEEP MODELS CALIBRATION WITH BAYESIAN NEURAL NETWORKS Anonymous authors Paper under double-blind review ABSTRACT In this work the authors show that Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) can be efficiently applied to calibrate state-of-the-art Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Our approach acts offline, i.e., it is decoupled from the training of the DNN to be cali- brated. This offline approach allow us to apply our BNN calibration to any model regardless of the limitations that the model may present during training. Note that this offline setting is also appropriate in order to deal with privacy concerns of DNN training data or implementation, among others. We show that our approach clearly outperforms other simple maximum likelihood based solutions that have recently shown very good performance, as temperature scaling (Guo et al., 2017). As an example, we reduce the Expected Calibration Error (ECE%) from 0.52 to 0.24 on CIFAR-10 and from 4.28 to 2.46 on CIFAR-100 on two Wide ResNet with 96.13% and 80.39% accuracy respectively, which are among the best results published for these tasks. Moreover, we show that our approach improves the per- formance of online methods directly applied to the DNN, e.g. Gaussian processes or Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks. Finally, this decoupled approach allows us to apply any further improvement to the BNN without considering the computational restrictions imposed by the deep model. In this sense, this offline setting is a practical application where BNNs can be considered, which is one of the main criticisms to these techniques.
    [Show full text]
  • Discovering General-Purpose Active Learning Strategies
    1 Discovering General-Purpose Active Learning Strategies Ksenia Konyushkova, Raphael Sznitman, and Pascal Fua, Fellow, IEEE Abstract—We propose a general-purpose approach to discovering active learning (AL) strategies from data. These strategies are transferable from one domain to another and can be used in conjunction with many machine learning models. To this end, we formalize the annotation process as a Markov decision process, design universal state and action spaces and introduce a new reward function that precisely model the AL objective of minimizing the annotation cost. We seek to find an optimal (non-myopic) AL strategy using reinforcement learning. We evaluate the learned strategies on multiple unrelated domains and show that they consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines. Index Terms—Active learning, meta-learning, Markov decision process, reinforcement learning. F 1 INTRODUCTION ODERN supervised machine learning (ML) methods is still greedy and therefore could be a subject to finding M require large annotated datasets for training purposes suboptimal solutions. and the cost of producing them can easily become pro- Our goal is therefore to devise a general-purpose data- hibitive. Active learning (AL) mitigates the problem by se- driven AL method that is non-myopic and applicable to lecting intelligently and adaptively a subset of the data to be heterogeneous datasets. To this end, we build on earlier annotated. To do so, AL typically relies on informativeness work that showed that AL problems could be naturally measures that identify unlabelled data points whose labels reworded in Markov Decision Process (MDP) terms [4], [10]. are most likely to help to improve the performance of the In a typical MDP, an agent acts in its environment.
    [Show full text]
  • On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks
    On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks Chuan Guo * 1 Geoff Pleiss * 1 Yu Sun * 1 Kilian Q. Weinberger 1 Abstract LeNet (1998) ResNet (2016) CIFAR-100 CIFAR-100 1:0 Confidence calibration – the problem of predict- ing probability estimates representative of the 0:8 true correctness likelihood – is important for 0:6 classification models in many applications. We Accuracy Accuracy discover that modern neural networks, unlike 0:4 those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Avg. confidence Avg. confidence Through extensive experiments, we observe that % of Samples 0:2 depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normal- 0:0 ization are important factors influencing calibra- 0:0 0:2 0:4 0:6 0:8 1:0 0:0 0:2 0:4 0:6 0:8 1:0 tion. We evaluate the performance of various 1:0 Outputs Outputs post-processing calibration methods on state-of- 0:8 Gap Gap the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and exper- 0:6 iments not only offer insights into neural net- 0:4 work learning, but also provide a simple and Accuracy straightforward recipe for practical settings: on 0:2 Error=44.9 Error=30.6 most datasets, temperature scaling – a single- 0:0 parameter variant of Platt Scaling – is surpris- 0:0 0:2 0:4 0:6 0:8 1:0 0:0 0:2 0:4 0:6 0:8 1:0 ingly effective at calibrating predictions. Confidence Figure 1. Confidence histograms (top) and reliability diagrams (bottom) for a 5-layer LeNet (left) and a 110-layer ResNet (right) 1.
    [Show full text]
  • Calibration Techniques for Binary Classification Problems
    Calibration Techniques for Binary Classification Problems: A Comparative Analysis Alessio Martino a, Enrico De Santis b, Luca Baldini c and Antonello Rizzi d Department of Information Engineering, Electronics and Telecommunications, University of Rome ”La Sapienza”, Via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy Keywords: Calibration, Classification, Supervised Learning, Support Vector Machine, Probability Estimates. Abstract: Calibrating a classification system consists in transforming the output scores, which somehow state the con- fidence of the classifier regarding the predicted output, into proper probability estimates. Having a well- calibrated classifier has a non-negligible impact on many real-world applications, for example decision mak- ing systems synthesis for anomaly detection/fault prediction. In such industrial scenarios, risk assessment is certainly related to costs which must be covered. In this paper we review three state-of-the-art calibration techniques (Platt’s Scaling, Isotonic Regression and SplineCalib) and we propose three lightweight proce- dures based on a plain fitting of the reliability diagram. Computational results show that the three proposed techniques have comparable performances with respect to the three state-of-the-art approaches. 1 INTRODUCTION tion from X . The seminal example is data clustering, where aim of the learning system is to return groups Classification is one of the most important problems (clusters) of data in such a way that patterns belong- falling under the machine learning and, specifically, ing to the same cluster are more similar with respect to under the supervised learning umbrella. Generally patterns belonging to other clusters (Jain et al., 1999; speaking, it is possible to sketch three main families: Martino et al., 2017b; Martino et al., 2018b; Martino clustering, regression/function approximation, classi- et al., 2019; Di Noia et al., 2019).
    [Show full text]
  • Radar-Detection Based Classification of Moving Objects Using Machine Learning Methods
    Radar-detection based classification of moving objects using machine learning methods VICTOR NORDENMARK ADAM FORSGREN Master of Science Thesis Stockholm, Sweden 2015 Radar-detection based classification of moving objects using machine learning methods Victor Nordenmark Adam Forsgren Master of Science Thesis MMK 2015:77 MDA 520 KTH Industrial Engineering and Management Machine Design SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM ii Examensarbete MMK 2015:77 MDA 520 Radar-detection based classification of moving objects using machine learning methods Victor Nordenmark Adam Forsgren Godkänt Examinator Handledare 2015-06-17 Martin Grimheden De-Jiu Chen Uppdragsgivare Kontaktperson Scania Södertälje AB Kristian Lundh Sammanfattning I detta examensarbete undersöks möjligheten att klassificera rörliga objekt baserat på data från Dopplerradardetektioner. Slutmålet är ett system som använder billig hårdvara och utför beräkningar av låg komplexitet. Scania, företaget som har beställt detta projekt, är intresserat av användningspotentialen för ett sådant system i applikationer för autonoma fordon. Specifikt vill Scania använda klassinformationen för att lättare kunna följa rörliga objekt, vilket är en väsentlig färdighet för en autonomt körande lastbil. Objekten delas in i fyra klasser: fotgängare, cyklist, bil och lastbil. Indatan till systemet består väsentligen av en plattform med fyra stycken monopulsdopplerradars som arbetar med en vågfrekvens på 77 GHz. Ett klassificeringssystem baserat på maskininlärningskonceptet Support vector machines har skapats. Detta system har tränats och validerats på ett dataset som insamlats för projektet, innehållandes datapunkter med klassetiketter. Ett antal stödfunktioner till detta system har också skapats och testats. Klassificeraren visas kunna skilja väl på de fyra klasserna i valideringssteget. Simuleringar av det kompletta systemet gjort på inspelade loggar med radardata visar lovande resultat, även i situationer som inte finns representerade i träningsdatan.
    [Show full text]
  • Learning to Plan with Portable Symbols
    Learning to Plan with Portable Symbols Steven James 1 Benjamin Rosman 1 2 George Konidaris 3 Abstract the state space remains complex and planning continues to We present a framework for autonomously learn- be challenging. ing a portable symbolic representation that de- On the other hand, the classical planning approach is to rep- scribes a collection of low-level continuous en- resent the world using abstract symbols, with actions repre- vironments. We show that abstract representa- sented as operators that manipulate these symbols (Ghallab tions can be learned in a task-independent space et al., 2004). Such representations use only the minimal specific to the agent that, when combined with amount of state information necessary for task-level plan- problem-specific information, can be used for ning. This is appealing since it mitigates the issue of reward planning. We demonstrate knowledge transfer sparsity and admits solutions to long-horizon tasks, but in a video game domain where an agent learns raises the question of how to build the appropriate abstract portable, task-independent symbolic rules, and representation of a problem. This is often resolved manu- then learns instantiations of these rules on a per- ally, requiring substantial effort and expertise. Fortunately, task basis, reducing the number of samples re- recent work demonstrates how to learn a provably sound quired to learn a representation of a new task. symbolic representation autonomously, given only the data obtained by executing the high-level actions available to the agent (Konidaris et al., 2018). 1. Introduction A major shortcoming of that framework is the lack of On the surface, the learning and planning communities op- generalisability—an agent must relearn the appropriate sym- erate in very different paradigms.
    [Show full text]
  • Materials Genomics and Machine Learning Kevin Maik Jablonka, Daniele Ongari, Seyed Mohamad Moosavi, and Berend Smit*
    This is an open access article published under an ACS AuthorChoice License, which permits copying and redistribution of the article or any adaptations for non-commercial purposes. pubs.acs.org/CR Review Big-Data Science in Porous Materials: Materials Genomics and Machine Learning Kevin Maik Jablonka, Daniele Ongari, Seyed Mohamad Moosavi, and Berend Smit* Cite This: Chem. Rev. 2020, 120, 8066−8129 Read Online ACCESS Metrics & More Article Recommendations ABSTRACT: By combining metal nodes with organic linkers we can potentially synthesize millions of possible metal−organic frameworks (MOFs). The fact that we have so many materials opens many exciting avenues but also create new challenges. We simply have too many materials to be processed using conventional, brute force, methods. In this review, we show that having so many materials allows us to use big-data methods as a powerful technique to study these materials and to discover complex correlations. The first part of the review gives an introduction to the principles of big-data science. We show how to select appropriate training sets, survey approaches that are used to represent these materials in feature space, and review different learning architectures, as well as evaluation and interpretation strategies. In the second part, we review how the different approaches of machine learning have been applied to porous materials. In particular, we discuss applications in the field of gas storage and separation, the stability of these materials, their electronic properties, and their synthesis. Given the increasing interest of the scientific community in machine learning, we expect this list to rapidly expand in the coming years.
    [Show full text]
  • Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning
    Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2020 MEASURING CALIBRATION IN DEEP LEARNING Anonymous authors Paper under double-blind review ABSTRACT Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. We propose new measures for calibration, the Static Calibration Error (SCE) and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE). These measures taks into account every prediction made by a model, in contrast to the popular Expected Calibration Error. 1 INTRODUCTION The reliability of a machine learning model’s confidence in its predictions is critical for high risk applications, such as deciding whether to trust a medical diagnosis prediction (Crowson et al., 2016; Jiang et al., 2011; Raghu et al., 2018). One mathematical formulation of the reliability of confidence is calibration (Murphy & Epstein, 1967; Dawid, 1982). Intuitively, for class predictions, calibration means that if a model assigns a class with 90% probability, that class should appear 90% of the time. Calibration is not directly measured by proper scoring rules like negative log likelihood or the quadratic loss. The reason that we need to assess the quality of calibrated probabilities is that presently, we optimize against a proper scoring rule and our models often yield uncalibrated probabilities. Recent work proposed Expected Calibration Error (ECE; Naeini et al., 2015), a measure of calibration error which has lead to a surge of works developing methods for calibrated deep neural networks (e.g., Guo et al., 2017; Kuleshov et al., 2018). In this paper, we show that ECE has numerous pathologies, and that recent calibration methods, which have been shown to successfully recalibrate models according to ECE, cannot be properly evaluated via ECE.
    [Show full text]
  • Arxiv:1808.00111V2 [Cs.LG] 14 Sep 2018
    JMLR: Workshop and Conference Proceedings 77:145{160, 2017 ACML 2017 Probability Calibration Trees Tim Leathart [email protected] Eibe Frank [email protected] Geoffrey Holmes [email protected] Department of Computer Science, University of Waikato Bernhard Pfahringer [email protected] Department of Computer Science, University of Auckland Editors: Yung-Kyun Noh and Min-Ling Zhang Abstract Obtaining accurate and well calibrated probability estimates from classifiers is useful in many applications, for example, when minimising the expected cost of classifications. Ex- isting methods of calibrating probability estimates are applied globally, ignoring the po- tential for improvements by applying a more fine-grained model. We propose probability calibration trees, a modification of logistic model trees that identifies regions of the input space in which different probability calibration models are learned to improve performance. We compare probability calibration trees to two widely used calibration methods|isotonic regression and Platt scaling|and show that our method results in lower root mean squared error on average than both methods, for estimates produced by a variety of base learners. Keywords: Probability calibration, logistic model trees, logistic regression, LogitBoost 1. Introduction In supervised classification, assuming uniform misclassification costs, it is sufficient to pre- dict the most likely class for a given test instance. However, in some applications, it is important to produce an accurate probability distribution over the classes for each exam- ple. While most classifiers can produce a probability distribution for a given test instance, these probabilities are often not well calibrated, i.e., they may not be representative of the true probability of the instance belonging to a particular class.
    [Show full text]
  • Multi-Class Probabilistic Classification Using Inductive and Cross Venn–Abers Predictors
    Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 60:1{13, 2017 Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction and Applications Multi-class probabilistic classification using inductive and cross Venn{Abers predictors Valery Manokhin [email protected] Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, UK Editor: Alex Gammerman, Vladimir Vovk, Zhiyuan Luo and Harris Papadopoulos Abstract Inductive (IVAP) and cross (CVAP) Venn{Abers predictors are computationally efficient algorithms for probabilistic prediction in binary classification problems. We present a new approach to multi-class probability estimation by turning IVAPs and CVAPs into multi- class probabilistic predictors. The proposed multi-class predictors are experimentally more accurate than both uncalibrated predictors and existing calibration methods. Keywords: Probabilistic classification, uncertainty quantification, calibration method, on-line compression modeling, measures of confidence 1. Introduction Multi-class classification is the problem of classifying objects into one of the more than two classes. The goal of classification is to construct a classifier which, given a new test object, will predict the class label from the set of possible k classes. In an \ordinary" classification problem, the goal is to minimize the loss function by predicting correct labels on the test set. In contrast, a probabilistic classifier outputs, for a given test object, the probability distribution over the set of k classes. Probabilistic classifiers allow to express a degree of confidence about the classification of the test object. This is useful in a range of applications and industries, including life sciences, robotics and artificial intelligence. A number of techniques are available to solve binary classification problems. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is a categorical variable indicating one of the two classes.
    [Show full text]