TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES No. 2 Prospects of : Nuclear Power A JOINT STUDY BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY AND THE FINNISH ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY • VIENNA 1960 PROSPECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER IN FINLAND The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency AFGHANISTAN IRAQ ALBANIA ISRAEL ARGENTINA ITALY AUSTRALIA JAPAN AUSTRIA REPUBLIC OF KOREA BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG BRAZIL MEXICO BULGARIA MONACO- BURMA MOROCCO BYELORUSSIAN SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLIC NETHERLANDS CAMBODIA NEW ZEALAND CANADA NICARAGUA CEYLON NORWAY CHILE PAKISTAN CHINA PARAGUAY COLOMBIA PERU CUBA PHILIPPINES CZECHOSLOVAK SOCIALIST REPUBLIC POLAND DENMARK PORTUGAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ROMANIA ECUADOR SPAIN EL SALVADOR SUDAN ETHIOPIA SWEDEN FINLAND SWITZERLAND FRANCE THAILAND FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY TUNISIA GHANA TURKEY GREECE UKRAINIAN SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLIC GUATEMALA UNION OF SOUTH AFRICA HAITI UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS HOLY SEE UNITED ARAB REPUBLIC HONDURAS UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN HUNGARY IRELAND ICELAND UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INDIA VENEZUELA INDONESIA VIET-NAM IRAN YUGOSLAVIA The Agency's Statute was approved on 26 October 1956 at an international conference held at United Nations headquarters, New York, and the Agency came into being when the Statute entered into force on 29 July 1957. The first session of the General Conference was held in Vienna, Austria, the permanent seat of the Agency, in October, 1957. The main objective of the Agency is "to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world". © IAEA, 1960 Permission to reproduce or translate the information contained in this publication may be obtained by writing to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Karntner Ring 11, Vienna I. Printed by the IAEA in Austria December 1960 PROSPECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER IN FINLAND A Joint Study by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Finnish Atomic Energy Commission TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES No. 2 INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY KARNTNER RING, VIENNA I, AUSTRIA 1960 PROSPECTS OF NUCLEAR POWER IN FINLAND, IAEA, VIENNA, 1960 STl/DOC/lO/2 FOREWORD Nuclear power is one of the most important practical applications of atomic energy and a major function of the Agency is to further its development. It be- came apparent in the Agency's early studies in this field that too often the economics of nuclear power were discussed in general terms and without refer- ence to the multitude of conditions governing each specific power situation, which vary widely from country to country and even within a given country. It was also found that the few specific studies which existed had been carried out in countries where it had already been decided to establish a nuclear power station or even to embark on a full-scale nuclear power program. It was there- fore considered that the prospects of nuclear power throughout the world could be realistically assessed only on the basis of a series of studies of as wide a range of different actual situations as possible. At its fourth regular session, the General Conference of the Agency adopted a resolution calling for the con- tinuation of nuclear power surveys in Member States at their request. The Government of Finland invited the Agency to participate in a study of the prospects of nuclear power in Finland during the next decade. The desire of the Government of Finland was, on the one hand, to benefit from the spe- cialized experience of the Agency, and on the other, to make a contribution to the Agency's program of furthering the development of nuclear power. We fully appreciate the value of this contribution and consider it very important for the Agency's program that this first nuclear power study has been undertaken to- gether with a Member State which has long experience in conventional power planning and has consistently looked at nuclear power within the general context of the problem of meeting her growing power needs. The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency approved the Agency's participation in the study and work began in March 1960. A joint study group was set up between the Finnish Atomic Energy Commission and the Agency's Secretariat, in co-operation with Imatran Voima Osakeyhtio, the State Power Corporation. The study group was headed by the Chairman of the Finnish Atomic Energy Commission and the Agency designated a member of its technical staff to serve as its representative and as special assistant to the head of the study group. An Agency consultant and other members of the technical divisions concerned with nuclear power activities joined in the group's work when the preparatory stage of the study had been completed. The Agency also con- sulted the Energy Division of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. While the emphasis in this Report naturally falls on problems specific to Finland, the method followed, the factors discussed and some of the data pre- sented have a more general validity and may serve as guides to other Member States, especially those that rely largely on hydro power. It is hoped that this first report will prove of assistance to them in assessing the possibility of in- troducing nuclear power. December 1960 Director General CONTENTS 1. Introduction and summary of conclusions 9 2. Energy 11 3. Hydroelectric resources .. 12 4. Imported fuels 23 5. Domestic fuels 25 6. Present power situation 31 7. Past growth of power consumption and estimates of future needs 39 8. Power programme until 1965 and probable development until 1970 .... 46 9. Changing role of condensing steam power 53 10. Possible locations for a base-load nuclear power plant in the system.. 62 11. Cost of conventional power 67 12. Cost of nuclear power 82 13. Comparison of nuclear and conventional power costs 90 14. Conclusions 94 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS The utilization of nuclear power for the production of electricity has been under rapid development, especially in the last five years. In some highly industrialized countries of the world nuclear power plants have been developed and built, first for demonstration purposes or as prototypes but more recently as commercial plants with the aim of achieving, at an early stage, economic competitiveness with other available sources of power. At the initial stages in planning a nuclear power programme an analysis of the overall power situation, including the structure of the power production and consumption, is necessary as well as an economic comparison of nuclear and conventional power costs over a foreseeable period of time. In Finland, the main power resource has been, and still is, hydro power. It is clear, however, that the hydro potential is insufficient to cover the in- creasing consumption over a long period of time. Already about one half of this potential has been exploited. Thus the country will necessarily have to consider the utilization of thermal power to an increasingly large extent. There is no indigenous coal or oil. For this reason it has become necessary to investigate realistically the possibilities offered by nuclear power. As it was not possible at the present stage in the rapid development of the technology of power reactors and nuclear fuels to make a long-term prediction concerning the possibilities for establishing a substantial nuclear power pro- gramme in Finland, this joint study concerned itself with a rather narrow field and limited objectives. The aim of the study was to investigate the criteria and conditions under which nuclear power could feasibly be introduced from the technical and economic standpoints into the country's power programme within the decade from 1960 to 1970. It was decided from the beginning to restrict the study to the possibilities of the production of electricity alone in large central plants. The question of small industrial power reactors capable of producing heat as well as electricity has not been studied. Nor has the possibility of in- stalling small power plants in remote areas in the north of the country been investigated. These subjects could well be treated in subsequent studies, should sufficient interest be shown in them and sufficient technical and cost data be- come available. The report begins by reviewing briefly the general energy situation in Finland (Chapter 2) and then proceeds to evaluate the existing energy resources of the country and its energy imports (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). An account of the present electric power situation is given in Chapter 6 while estimates of future power consumption up to 1970 are contained in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 describes the power programme designed to meet the anticipated needs and Chapter 9 is specially devoted to the expected role of thermal power within this programme. In this way a preliminary determination is made of the time when a suffi- ciently large block of thermal power can be economically assigned to base-load duty. This leads to the second part of the report namely to a preliminary com- parison of the costs of conventional and nuclear power at the time when a rela- tively large unit of either type could be operated on base-load. Chapter 10 dis- cusses the possible locations for a base-load nuclear power plant in the system from the viewpoint of optimum load transfer. 9 Chapter 11 proceeds to estimate the probable future costs of hydro power as well as of a thermal conventional plant taking 1960 as a basis and projecting future capital and fuel costs as well as heat rates into the next decade on the basis of explicitly stated assumptions. Chapter 12 gives summary estimates of nuclear power costs for the same tentative dates and endeavours to establish a preliminary generating cost com- parison under different sets of assumptions for fuel costs, load factors and interest rates.