MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Turkish Troops Lay Siege on the Qandil Mountains

OE Watch Commentary: The Turkish Armed Forces have been quietly “After Qandil is cleared of the PKK…Temporary putting up military outposts since March 2018 in mountainous areas near the Qandil Mountains, where the Workers’ Party (PKK), which bases will be established in Qandil so the PKK has been waging a war and conducting terrorist attacks against Turkey on cannot return… Qandil will no longer belong to and off since 1984, has its headquarters. Recently, however, a day does not go by without news or a statement from a government official regarding the PKK but will be a Turkish military base.” a Turkish operation against the PKK’s stronghold in the mountains ahead of the 24 June snap elections. The first accompanying excerpted Source: Abdulkadir Selvi, “A different concept will be applied passage is by a Turkish columnist in Hurriyet, considered close to the in Qandil,” Hurriyet, 7 June 2018. http://www.hurriyet. government, and the second one is written for Al-Monitor by a Kurdish com.tr/yazarlar/abdulkadir-selvi/kandile-farkli-bir-konsept- journalist based in the city of Diyarbakir, the largest Kurdish city uygulanacak-40860079 in Turkey. While the first accompanying passage tries to answer the There have previously been other operations in ’s Qandil question of how the operation is taking place, the second one delves Mountains, the headquarters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ into the timing of the operation and whether achieving a successful Party (PKK)…However, this time…a long-term action plan is being outcome is feasible. executed. The Hurriyet passage differentiates this operation from the previous The Qandil operation started on March 10 from within our ones because it argues that this time Turkey has a long-term action borders. The passageways the PKK has used to sneak into Turkey plan of not only removing the PKK, but also establishing bases in from Qandil, their bases, ammunition stores, and the areas in which strategic locations in the Qandil Mountains. While the operation they have planted mines have all been cleared. started in March, the final blow is yet to come as Turkish forces gradually progress into the heart of the mountain. The author quotes A total of 11 large-scale regional bases have been established… Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, saying “[t]here will be This is just the groundwork. A big operation is being prepared… four-way cooperation between Turkey, the US, Baghdad, and Arbil” The PKK has eight to 10 camps in Qandil…The region will be to conduct this operation against the PKK. The operation will be struck by war planes for days and will be softened with artillery taken in the following stages: First, the pathways between Qandil and fire, making it ready for the operation. Turkey will be severed by establishing bases in strategic locations. In his statement…Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu had Second, air strikes will target the PKK’s organizational infrastructure said “There will be four-way cooperation between Turkey, the U.S., by destroying its training camps, communication, headquarters, Baghdad, and Arbil” against the PKK… ammunition depots, and shelters. Third, with the continuous support of It is understood that a different dialogue is being maintained with fighter jets and artillery fire, the ground offensive will take place. . Because without cooperation with Iran, the Qandil operation According to the Al-Monitor passage, statements by government will be insufficient, as part of Qandil is on land that belongs to officials “in the midst of a heated election campaign dominated by Iran. PKK leaders Cemil Bayık and Murat Karayılan are said to be nationalist bluster” raises questions over Ankara’s motive regarding utilizing sheltered areas on the Iranian side. the operation. On 2 June Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu In the first stage, ties between Qandil and Turkey are being revealed that the Turkish forces had advanced over 16 miles into severed. northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains. The next day, while campaigning in Diyarbakir, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that “Qandil’s …The PKK’s training quarters, communication, headquarters, and turn is coming.” Government spokesperson Bekir Bozdağ said after a ammunition depots, and shelters will be destroyed in air operations, Cabinet meeting “anything can happen anytime” signaling an operation which will last for days. The organization’s infrastructure will be in Qandil. destroyed. Despite bold statements by Turkish officials, the author quotes the …Following air operations, a ground offensive is expected to take former Turkish consul general in Arbil stating an operation on such a place, with the support of artillery fire. During the period of the scale “would be neither a realistic nor a rational objective in terms of operation, war planes and artillery fires are expected to provide scope, topography and regional politics” as Turkey would also need continuous support to the ground units as needed. the consent of Bagdad, Arbil, and Tehran. The article notes if Turkey After Qandil is cleared of the PKK…Temporary bases will be still launches the operation, it will be the riskiest operation in its fight established in Qandil so the PKK cannot return… Qandil will no against the PKK as the terrain favors the latter. Turkish control of “the longer belong to the PKK but will be a Turkish military base…the supply lines and infiltration routes of the PKK” will keep “the PKK Turkish flag that will be planted in Qandil will continue to wave away from Turkish borders.” End OE Watch Commentary (Gunduz) there, just like in Syria’s Jarabulus, al-Bab, and Afrin.

(continued) OE Watch | July 2018 48 MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Continued: Turkish Troops Lay Siege on the Qandil Mountains “After Qandil is cleared of the PKK…Temporary bases will be established in Qandil so the PKK cannot return… Qandil will no longer belong to the PKK but will be a Turkish military base.” Source: Mahmut Bozarslan, “What’s behind Turkish threat to invade PKK stronghold in Iraq?,” Al-Monitor, 6 June 2018. https://www.al- monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/turkey-iraqi-kurdistan-is-qandil-objective-attainable.html A flurry of statements by Turkish leaders in recent days have heralded a ground operation on the Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq, where the leadership and major camps of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) are based. The warnings come amid heightened Turkish efforts to curb Kurdish militants, …in the midst of a heated election campaign dominated by nationalist bluster, raising questions over Ankara’s motive. Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu was the first to reveal June 2 that Turkish troops had penetrated 26-27 kilometers (some 16 miles)… advancing toward Qandil. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the following day during a campaign trip to Diyarbakir that “Qandil’s turn is coming.” Government spokesman Bekir Bozdag followed up with remarks after a Cabinet meeting that “anything can happen anytime” regarding Qandil… Turkish commandos were inside northern Iraq, quietly putting up military outposts in the Sidekan area, north of Hakurk, which is adjacent to Qandil and a major route for PKK infiltrations into Turkey. Ankara’s objectives, he wrote, were “to eliminate the PKK’s setup at Sidekan” that allows infiltration into Turkey and “to ensure 24/7 domination” of the area through temporary military camps while opening a corridor to Qandil… The low-key advance proceeded amid official silence, though Turkey’s regular airstrikes in the region continued and reports appeared occasionally in the media about a ground incursion… According to PKK sources, the ground incursion began from the Hakurk and Bradost regions following airstrikes mid-December. On March 11, the PKK said the operation had entered a new phase, as the troops backed by artillery sought to seize control of the Bradost region… Now, with the louder statements coming out of Ankara, the Turkish military appears to have set its sights on Qandil…But how realistic is the prospect? The first hurdle that comes to mind is the terrain. Qandil is a sprawling mountain range that abuts both the Turkish and Iranian borders of Iraqi Kurdistan and abounds with deep ravines, cliffs and caves. Due to the formidable topography, coupled with regional political constraints, “cleansing Qandil” has remained an elusive aim for successive Turkish governments, despite relentless air raids on PKK hideouts in the area… “This, I think, would be neither a realistic nor a rational objective in terms of scope, topography and regional politics,” he said. “I don’t believe an operation on such a scale could be launched and conducted without the consent of Baghdad and the support of Tehran and against the will of Erbil and the KRG public.”

Qandil Mountain, Hajiawa, Kurdistan. Source:By Wary Abdullah [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Qandil_mountain,_Hajiawa,_Kurdistan-_Iraq.jpg OE Watch | July 2018 49