New Addington Bus Network Review

November 2014

1 Contents

1 Contents ...... 2 2 Introduction ...... 3 3 Existing network ...... 3 4 Existing Capacity and Demand ...... 6 4.1 Methodology ...... 6 4.2 Demand within ...... 6 4.3 Frequencies required within New Addington ...... 9 4.4 Demand to and from New Addington ...... 10 4.5 Tram Demand ...... 13 5 Local Issues and Aspirations ...... 13 5.1 Borough Aspirations ...... 13 5.2 NHS...... 14 5.3 Schools ...... 14 6 Preliminary Findings, Stakeholder Aspirations and Constraints ...... 15 6.1 Preliminary Findings ...... 15 6.2 Other Aspirations ...... 16 6.3 Constraints ...... 16 7 Service Options ...... 16 7.2 Option 1 ...... 16 7.3 Option 2 ...... 20 7.4 Infrastructure Changes ...... 21 7.5 Broken Links ...... 22 7.6 Benefits and drawbacks ...... 22 7.7 Option Appraisal ...... 24 8 Appendices ...... 27 8.1 Appendix 1: ODX generated origin and destination matrix ...... 27 8.2 Appendix 2: Sensitivity check – BODS vs ODX link usage data ...... 28 8.3 Appendix 3: Keypoints data at AVI ...... 29

Page | 2 New Addington Bus Network Review 2 Introduction

2.1.1 New Addington is a mainly residential area, with a population of 22,300, in the south east of the Borough of (LB) . It is primarily surrounded by green land, consequently creating a sense of isolation from other urban areas nearby.

2.1.2 There is one main access point by road. This is at the north end of the estate via Addington Village and connects the estate to Croydon and other surrounding urban areas. A more minor second road to the south provides links to Biggin Hill, Tandridge and other nearby villages.

2.1.3 Tramlink route 3, introduced in 2000, provides a high frequency link to Croydon with a journey time of approximately 15 minutes. This is the favoured mode of transport between New Addington and Croydon due to its faster journey time and equal fares to buses.

2.1.4 One of the primary aims of the bus network in New Addington is to provide links to the Tram stops from the rest of the estate. Through tram and bus tickets are available on routes T31, T32, T33, 130 and 314, which allow passengers to complete a journey using both tram and bus for the price of a single fare.

2.1.5 The purpose of this document is to carry out a detailed review of bus services that serve the estate, and prepare appraised service options based on demand data and input from stakeholders.

3 Existing network

3.1.1 New Addington is very well served by the bus network. Six routes (64, 130, 314, T31, 664, N64) enter the estate from the northern access at Addington Village Interchange (AVI), route 464 enters from the south, while route T32 is internal to the estate.

Weekday Frequency Performance Route Terminus 1 Terminus 2 (bph) Bus Type Target$ Reliability$* 64 New Addington, Salcot Crescent Pond 7.5 87 capacity DD 0.90 0.75 130 New Addington Tramlink, Parkway Norwood Junction, Grosvenor Road 4 60 capacity SD 82.0% 87.0% 314 New Addington, Parkway Eltham Station 4 55 capacity SD 78.0% 77.2% 464 New Addington, Parkway Slip Road Tatsfield, Ship 2 45 capacity SD 86.0% 93.2% T31 New Addington, Homestead Way Forestdale, Courtwood Lane 8 55 capacity SD 0.70 0.42 T32 New Addington Tramlink, Parkway Addington Village Interchange 4 55 capacity SD 86.0% 97.2% 2 AM jnys to school 664 New Addington, Homestead Way Charles Darwin School, Jail Lane 2 PM journeys to NA 87 capacity DD n/a n/a N64 New Addington, Homestead Way Thornton Heath Pond 2 (all nights) 87 capacity DD 90.0% 96.3% Tramlink 3 New Addington Wimbledon 8 n/a n/a n/a $ Performance target and reliability for low frequency routes is measured in % On Time, while for high frequency routes it is measured in Excess Wait Time (EWT) * Reliability data is for P1 to P13 2013/14, 01/04/13 to 31/03/14 Table 1: Bus routes serving New Addington

Page | 3 New Addington Bus Network Review 3.1.2 A further five routes serve AVI without entering the estate.

Weekday Frequency Performance Route Terminus 1 Terminus 2 (bph) Bus Type Target$ Reliability$* 353 Addington Village Interchange Ramsden Estate, Rye Crescent 4 87 capacity DD 82.0% 76.4% 359 Addington Village Interchange Sainsbury's 1.71£ 55 capacity SD 86.0% 93.7% 466 Addington Village Interchange Caterham on the Hill, Westway Common 6 87 capacity DD 0.90 0.74 T33 Addington Village Interchange West Croydon Bus Station 7.5 60 capacity SD 0.70 0.82 1 AM jny to school 654 Addington Village Interchange Priory School, Tintagel Road 1 PM jny to AVI 87 capacity DD n/a n/a £ Route 359 operates every 35 minutes $ Performance target and reliability for low frequency routes is measured in % On Time, while for high frequency routes is measured in Excess Wait Time (EWT) * Reliability data is for P1 to P13 2013/14, 01/04/13 to 31/03/14 Table 2: Bus routes serving AVI but not entering New Addington

3.1.3 Route 353 was recently reviewed prior to the award of a new contract. Additional resource was proposed during the peaks and interpeak Monday to Friday, Saturday daytime and all evenings. The contract is not due to be awarded until May 2015. Negotiations will take place with the incumbent operator to introduce reliability measures prior to this.

3.1.4 Data from Autumn 2013 shows that route T33 has 80 minutes cycle time available during the peaks, with average actual round trip time highest in the hour from 0700 at 70 minutes. During the interpeak there is 70 minutes cycle time with average actual round trip time highest in the hour from 1500 at 60 minutes. Saturday and Sunday are similar, with at least 10 minutes recovery time available at all times. Therefore it is considered that a more efficient schedule can be achieved within existing resource.

Page | 4 New Addington Bus Network Review DIGITAL MAP DATA © COLLINS BARTHOLOMEW LTD (2014)

Figure 1: Bus routeings for services that enter New Addington

Page | 5 New Addington Bus Network Review 4 Existing Capacity and Demand

4.1 Methodology

4.1.1 Due to the number of routes and the relatively small, self-contained nature of the estate, the existing bus network has many parallel links. Consequently, a high proportion of passengers can board the first bus that arrives, regardless of destination, to complete their journey. This has implications for the use of Bus Origin and Destination Survey (BODS) data to establish usage within New Addington, as all the surveys were carried out on different days, sometimes years apart.

4.1.2 Alternatively, Origin and Destination Interchange (ODX) data has recently become available. This records all Oyster boardings across all TfL operated bus routes for one day, and uses an algorithm to establish where each passenger alights. The data for each route being recorded on the same day allows for a more confident analysis of an area of the nature of New Addington.

4.1.3 The weakness of ODX data is that the inference rate for alighters is 72% of Oyster boarders across the network, and varies by route. A standard method of extrapolation to adjust for this affect has yet to be agreed. While a basic extrapolation is used in paragraphs 4.2.1 and 4.4.1 to infer the total passengers travelling internally within the estate and the total passengers travelling to or from the estate, all other ODX derived figures in this report are not subject to extrapolation. This is considered acceptable as ODX data is being used to look at usage patterns, while Keypoints and BODS data is used to evaluate required frequencies (see section 4.3).

4.1.4 BODS data also does not account for 100% of the journeys on the network. Surveys are not carried out on every in service bus on a route, and survey forms are not completed by every passenger on a surveyed bus. However, BODS data is extrapolated by a standardised method to estimate results for 100% of passengers.

4.1.5 Therefore, while ODX is the primary dataset used for analysis in this report, BODS data is used as a sensitivity test. Presented in Appendix 2, this shows that the two datasets correlate closely, providing confidence in the data used throughout this report.

4.2 Demand within New Addington

4.2.1 In total, ODX data indicates that there are 4,051 daily passengers that both start and finish their journeys in the estate. Using a basic extrapolation (dividing by 72% to infer a 100% figure) gives an estimated total of 5,626 daily passengers.

4.2.2 Figure 2 shows how New Addington was broken down into zones to allow analysis of internal usage to and from each part of the estate. Table 3 presents the zones in usage order.

Page | 6 New Addington Bus Network Review

DIGITAL MAP DATA © COLLINS BARTHOLOMEW LTD (2014)

Figure 2: Map of New Addington with routes shown in blue, zones used for analysis and internal journeys starting and/or finishing within each zone

Page | 7 New Addington Bus Network Review Proportion of total Number of Daily Usage per Zone BPH internal stops Usage stop journeys (%) 2 Fieldway 12 15 1825 45% 122 1 Addington Village Interchange 27.5 5 1784 44% 357 10 New Addington Tram Stop 29.5 6 1055 26% 176 8 Homestead Way 6 13 904 22% 70 4 Goldcrest Way / Headley Drive East 20 6 756 19% 126 7 Central Parade / Arnhem Drive 12 6 573 14% 96 6 King Henry's Drive East / Vulcan Way 16 6 320 8% 53 3 Headley Drive West 8 3 295 7% 98 11 Fieldway Tram Stop 15.5 3 142 4% 47 12 King Henry's Drive Tram Stop 15.5 4 91 2% 23 5 King Henry's Drive West 8 3 77 2% 26 9 Gascoigne Road 4 5 8 0% 2 Total 7830 Note: it would be expected that the total in this table and Figure 2 above would be double the total internal usage of 4,051 presented in paragraph 4.2.1, as the start and end zone for each trip is being counted. However, this is not the case as trips that start and finish in the same zone are only counted once Table 3: ODX daily usage to or from each part of New Addington

4.2.3 This data indicates that, in certain parts of the estate there is little correlation between frequency and the daily number of passengers boarding and alighting in a zone. For instance, zone 11 (Fieldway Tram Stop) is served by 15.5 bph and 142 passengers board or alight here every day at 3 stops, an average of 47 passengers per stop. In contrast, zone 2 (Fieldway) is served by 12 bph and is the start or finish point for 1,825 daily journeys across 15 stops, an average of 122 passengers per stop.

4.2.4 While analysing the data in this way indicates what level of service is required in each zone, further interpretation is required to determine which parts of the estate passengers are travelling between. An excerpt from the OD matrix is shown in table 4 below.

Page | 8 New Addington Bus Network Review AddingtonField Village WayHeadley HeadleyDrive (W) KingDrive Henry's (E)King & Goldcrest DriveHenry'sArnhem (W) DriveWay DriveHomestead (E) Gascoigne Way New Road AddingtonFieldway TramKing Tram &Henry's Central Drive Parade Tram Zones 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 0 0 2 1104 944 160 3 183 182 1 0 4 389 277 89 9 14 5 29 6 21 0 2 0 6 214 130 32 19 33 0 0 7 346 50 115 12 69 14 12 74 8 532 63 220 0 121 25 23 62 18 9 5 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 10 1016 60 229 47 106 8 51 149 358 2 6 11 142 44 0 25 25 0 20 12 0 1 15 0 12 91 25 14 0 9 1 0 4 14 0 24 0 0 1784 881 112 381 48 106 301 390 3 45 0 0 Table 4: ODX daily usage between each part of New Addington

4.2.5 The figures highlighted in red indicate a usage of greater than 75 passengers per day, while the figures highlighted in yellow indicate a usage of between 35 and 75 passengers per day between the corresponding zones. This can be simplified as in table 5 below to indicate which other zones each is desirable to be linked to.

Zone Highly desirable link Desirable link 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 6 7 - 8 - 10 - 11 2 - 1 - 4 - 7 - 8 - 10 3 - 1 10 4 - 1 - 2 - 8 - 10 7 5 - 6 - 1 10 7 - 2 - 10 1 - 4 - 8 8 - 2 - 4 - 10 1 - 7 9 - 10 - 2 - 4 - 7 - 8 1 - 3 - 6 11 - 1 12 - Table 5: zones where existing usage infers that maintaining a link is desirable

4.3 Frequencies required within New Addington

4.3.1 Currently, ODX data does not allow for loads of individual buses or routes at a point, and therefore BODS data has been used to establish the frequency required on each link within New Addington. Because BODS data is extrapolated to estimate 100% of journeys, in this case it has benefits over using ODX data.

4.3.2 Loadings data, known as Keypoint data, is collected at AVI. The survey was undertaken in May 2013.

Page | 9 New Addington Bus Network Review

4.3.3 These two data sources have both been used to ensure a robust analysis. The data is contained in appendix 3.

4.3.4 Capacity in New Addington far exceeds demand at peak times. Very few buses throughout the day have a load in excess of 20, with only two buses at 80% of their capacity or more. The busiest point by far in both morning and afternoon is just south of AVI.

4.3.5 In the morning peak hour, BODS and Keypoint data both indicate that between 10 and 11 single deck buses worth of capacity are required towards AVI. The existing services provide 27.5 buses per hour (bph), 7.5 of which are double deck vehicles.

4.3.6 In the afternoon peak hour, BODS indicates that between 9 and 10 single deck buses are required from AVI. However, Keypoints data indicates that between 13 and 14 buses are required over this hour. It also indicates that loads are evenly spread over the hour, with no particularly crowded buses. As the Keypoints data is both more recent than the BODS data and is all recorded on the same day, it is considered a better indication of the capacity required. Again, as with in the morning, the existing service provides 27.5 bph.

4.3.7 Other locations within New Addington with significant boarders and alighters at peak times are the length of Field Way, New Addington Tram stop and the stops at the junction of Homestead Way and Milne Park East. The latter is predominantly due to use by 11-18 year old students attending New Addington High School, a 1,200-capacity Academy school at the south end of the estate. However, loads at these points are lower than at AVI.

4.4 Demand to and from New Addington

4.4.1 All routes that operate within New Addington link to areas outside the estate, with the exception of route T32 which terminates at AVI. In total, ODX data indicates that there are 3,324 passengers that travel from outside the estate to New Addington, or vice versa. Using the same basic extrapolation as for the internal passengers, 4,617 daily passengers are inferred.

4.4.2 Figure 3 shows how routes serving the estate link with the surrounding area, broken down into zones and including the number of daily trips to and from of the estate from each zone. This figure does not include the number of trips to and from AVI, or other trips on the routes that do not start or finish within New Addington. Table 6 shows the number of links to or from New Addington and AVI on each route.

Page | 10 New Addington Bus Network Review © CROWN COPYRIGHT AND DATABASE RIGHTS 2014 ORDNANCE SURVEY 100035971

Figure 3: Map of area surrounding New Addington with routes that serve the estate, zones used for analysis and journeys travelling between each zone and New Addington (bracketed)

Page | 11 New Addington Bus Network Review Usage to / Usage to / from New Route Zone from AVI Addington 19 Farley Road & 55 30 20 Croydon Town Centre 120 120 64 21 University Hospital & Thornton Heath Pond 61 92 24 Selsdon Park Road 407 382 Total 643 624 16 Shirley 121 185 17 Road & Morland Road (diversion) 32 107 130 18 Norwood Junction 61 156 Total 214 448 13 West Wickham & Hayes 183 107 14 Bromley 243 216 314 15 Elmstead & Eltham 54 12 Total 480 335 22 Biggin Hill and Tatsfield 0 327 464 Total 0 327 23 Court Wood Lane, Forestdale 194 59 T31 Total 194 59 1531 1793 Total 3324 Table 6: Usage from between New Addington & AVI and external areas by route

4.4.3 As can be seen from table 6, 448 (68%) of 662 passengers travelling to or from the estate and AVI on route 130 are doing so from within the estate. However, only 335 (41%) of 815 passengers travelling to or from the estate and AVI on route 314 are doing so from within the estate. This indicates that if one of these routes was to be shortened to run from AVI, the 314 would be the appropriate one.

4.4.4 On route 64, over 60% of trips to or from the Addington area are linked with zone 24 (Selsdon Park Road). Under 20% are to or from zone 20 (Croydon Town Centre), and these are paralleled by the tram, which is faster and more frequent. Links to or from the Addington area to both zones 19 (Farley Road & South Croydon) and 21 (University Hospital & Thornton Heath Pond) form a much smaller percentage.

4.4.5 On route T31, a large majority of the external trips are travelling to or from AVI, rather than into the estate.

4.4.6 Route 464 does not serve AVI, and therefore all of the external trips are linked to areas within New Addington.

Page | 12 New Addington Bus Network Review 4.5 Tram Demand

Zones Stop No. Stop Name Boarders 1 9441 ADDINGTON VILLAGE TRAM STOP 810 11 9472 FIELD WAY TRAM STOP 609 12 9476 KING HENRYS TRAM STOP 322 10 9484 NEW ADDINGTON TRAM STOP 1266 Table 7: ODX all tram boarders at stops in Addington across a day

4.5.1 The above table is the daily number of boarders at each tram stop in New Addington. The busiest is the New Addington tram stop where Tramlink 3 terminates. All six bus routes serve this tram stop at a combined frequency of 29.5 bph, linking it to all parts of the estate served by bus. Second to New Addington is the Addington Village Tram Stop at AVI, which is served by 45 bph, including all of the routes that enter New Addington except route 464.

5 Local Issues and Aspirations

5.1 Borough Aspirations

5.1.1 Officers and councillors from the LB Croydon, and the Assembly Member for Croydon Steve O’Connell, have indicated a number of aspirations for the bus network in the New Addington area.

5.1.2 They commented that parallel services are not timetabled to provide evenly spaced bus arrivals. Table 8 shows the times of buses leaving AVI towards the estate on routes 130 and T31, which parallel between AVI and Goldcrest Way (zones 1, 2 and 4). This indicates that the services are not well spaced, with buses typically arriving within 1 or 2 minutes.

0800-0900 1300-1400 1700-1800 Time Route Headway Time Route Headway Time Route Headway 804 T31 - 1305 T31 - 1704 T31 - 811 130 7 1312 130 7 1710 130 6 811 T31 0 1313 T31 1 1712 T31 2 819 T31 8 1320 T31 7 1719 T31 7 826 130 7 1327 130 7 1725 130 6 826 T31 0 1328 T31 1 1727 T31 2 834 T31 8 1335 T31 7 1734 T31 7 841 T31 7 1342 130 7 1740 130 6 842 130 1 1343 T31 1 1742 T31 2 849 T31 7 1350 T31 7 1749 T31 7 856 T31 7 1357 130 7 1755 130 6 857 130 1 1358 T31 1 1757 T31 2 Table 8: weekday times between routes 130 and T31 leaving AVI towards the estate

5.1.3 They also commented that reliability of services in the estate is poor. Results show that all the routes that enter the estate have exceeded their minimum performance standard by a significant margin over the last year, with the exception of route 314, which achieved an On Time result of 77.2% against a minimum standard of 78%. See table 1 for further details.

Page | 13 New Addington Bus Network Review 5.1.4 They also indicate that bus and tram timetables could be more effective in ensuring bus services meet the first and last trams. Table 9 shows the times of the first and last trams, and the first and last buses on each route. This indicates that in certain cases, tram and bus timetables are not well integrated. For instance, only the first bus on one of the five routes serving AVI from the estate arrives in time to allow passengers to interchange to the first tram. This is route 64, which parallels the tram. Therefore, no passengers who live in areas of the estate remote from a tram stop can catch a bus that will arrive at a tram stop and allow interchange to the first tram.

First tram First bus / last bus time Tram direction / last tram Bus direction 64 130 314 464 T31 T32 Departing NA 0450 Arriving NA from Tatsfield and Biggin Hill n/a n/a n/a 0632 n/a n/a Departing AVI 0455 Arriving AVI from estate 0445 0509 0533 n/a 0500 0455 Arriving AVI 0058 Departing AVI to estate 0048 0036 0111 n/a 0102 0049 Arriving NA 0103 Departing NA to Tatsfield and Biggin Hill n/a n/a n/a 0038 n/a n/a Table 9: First and last tram and bus times

5.1.5 They have requested that accessibility to the south end of Central Parade, where there are a number of existing passenger objectives (shops, library and leisure centre) and others planned (supermarket) be improved. Currently only two of the routes in the estate serve this area (T31 and T32), and there is no southbound stop.

5.1.6 Although outside of the estate, they have requested improvements to bus accessibility to Monks Hill. Currently the area is served by route 359 every 35 minutes between approximately 1000 and 1500, but has no peak time or Sunday service.

5.2 NHS

5.2.1 The main hospital services for the area are provided by Croydon University Hospital, located to the north of Croydon Town Centre on London Road. Currently route 64 provides a direct link from the northwest of the estate to the hospital. It is considered important by various stakeholders, including borough officers and councillors, that a direct link from the estate to the hospital is maintained.

5.3 Schools

5.3.1 The 1,200 capacity New Addington High School is a secondary school located at the south end of the estate. Routes 130, 464 and T31 all provide access to the school from various parts of the estate.

5.3.2 The 1,300 capacity Charles Darwin School is a secondary school located to the southeast of the estate in Biggin Hill, Kent. Two dedicated school journeys are provided from the estate via route 664, with two return journeys operating in the afternoon. Route 464 also provides links from the south end of the estate to within a short walk of the school.

Page | 14 New Addington Bus Network Review 5.3.3 The Quest Academy, a 1,100 capacity secondary school, and John Ruskin College, a 700 capacity sixth form college, are both located just to the north of Selsdon Park Road, to the northwest of New Addington. Slightly further to the west, near the junction of Addington Road and Old Farleigh Road, is , a 600 capacity independent secondary school. All of these establishments are accessible from the estate via route 64, although students travelling from certain parts of the estate will have to use another route and interchange to route 64, or face a long walk to a stop served by route 64.

5.3.4 Recent postcode data for Oasis Academy and Coulsdon College indicate that relatively significant numbers of pupils live in New Addington and attend these establishments. While route 466 links AVI and these establishments, this is via Croydon, a very indirect route. More direct routes are available via interchange, although this would require using three buses.

6 Preliminary Findings, Stakeholder Aspirations and Constraints

6.1 Preliminary Findings

6.1.1 A number of findings emerge as a result of the analysis in section 4:

 There is overcapacity at peak times in New Addington;

 Certain internal links within New Addington are well used and are highly desirable to maintain;

 Bus services provide residents with links to the tram stops in the estate and these should be maintained, especially to New Addington and AVI;

 The number of passengers travelling between the estate and zones 16-18 (Shirley, Addiscombe and Norwood Junction) is relatively high;

 The number of passengers travelling between AVI and zones 13-14 (West Wickham, Hayes and Bromley) is relatively high;

 The number of passengers travelling between the estate and zone 24 (Selsdon Park Road) is relatively high;

 The number of passengers travelling between the estate and zones 19-21 (Farley Road, South Croydon, Croydon Town Centre, University Hospital and Thornton Heath Pond) is relatively low;

 Of the passengers travelling to and from zone 23 (Courtwood Lane and Forestdale), the majority are travelling to AVI;

 The number of passengers travelling between zone 22 (Biggin Hill and Tatsfield) and New Addington, especially to the tram, is relatively high.

Page | 15 New Addington Bus Network Review 6.2 Other Aspirations

6.2.1 As presented in section 5, liaison with stakeholders has established a number of aspirations for the area. Those that are considered desirable and potentially achievable are:

 Improvement in bus access to the south end of Central Parade;

 Improvement in bus access to Monks Hill (north of Selsdon Park Road);

 Maintenance of a bus link from the estate to Croydon University Hospital;

 Improvement in timings between routes that parallel within the estate;

 Improvements in interchange between bus routes and the first and last trams;

 Improved accessibility from the estate to educational establishments pupils living in the estate attend.

6.3 Constraints

6.3.1 There are also constraints to meeting these aspirations:

 While detailed analysis has been carried out using significant volumes of data, there is a danger that some busy points may not have been identified;

 Any proposed changes to routeings rely on a suitable space being available or being constructed for buses to terminate;

 Similarly, any routes terminating in new locations may require driver toilets being provided.

7 Service Options

7.1.1 An extension of route 130 to Thornton Heath Clock Tower should be implemented in January 2015 when the Spring Lane Bridge diversion is removed. Both options in this paper assume that this has happened.

7.1.2 Buses on the main service in New Addington will be timed so that residents in all parts of the estate can interchange in time for the first tram and from the last tram.

7.2 Option 1

7.2.1 Option 1 proposes the following changes to the routes that serve New Addington:

Page | 16 New Addington Bus Network Review 7.2.2 Route 64 would have its frequency increased to 8 buses per hour (bph), continue to be operated by double deck vehicles, be rerouted and become a 24 hour route. It would terminate at the New Addington, Vulcan Way and then run via King Henry’s Drive, Homestead Way, Overbury Crescent, Central Parade, Parkway, King Henry’s Drive, Goldcrest Way, Headley Drive, Merrow Way, Field Way, Lodge Lane, AVI and as now via Selsdon and Croydon to Thornton Heath Pond.

7.2.3 The changes to route 64 would mean that passengers from many parts of New Addington would gain a through route to central Croydon, meaning that they may be more reluctant to change to the tram. Currently approximately 230 passengers from New Addington alight from buses at AVI in the morning peak hour. This is equivalent to the capacity of just over three double-deck buses. Approximately 250 people board a tram in the peak hour at Addington Village towards central Croydon. Some of these would come from buses from the Hayes direction (314 and 353) or from the Selsdon/Forestdale direction (64 and T33) and would continue to change to trams. It can therefore be expected that around 2 bus loads of passengers on route 64 could stay on it to Croydon town centre rather than transferring to tram as they do now. Journey time on route 64 between Addington Village and East Croydon is 27 minutes in the morning peak. The equivalent journey on the tram is 13 minutes, so, even with additional time involved in getting off a bus and then waiting for a tram there would still be a considerable journey time saving. It is therefore expected that this option would not create a capacity problem on route 64, or significantly affect tram demand.

7.2.4 Route 130 would have its frequency increased to 5 bph, continue to be operated by single deck vehicles, and be rerouted. It would terminate at New Addington, Vulcan Way and run via King Henry’s Drive, Arnhem Drive, Central Parade, Parkway, Lodge Lane, Headley Drive, Merrow Way, Field Way, Lodge Lane, AVI and as now to Shirley , Norwood Junction and on to Thornton Heath High Street.

7.2.5 A frequency increase is being proposed as growth on the route has been considerable, rising 30% on weekdays since 2007. In addition, a large new secondary school is expected to be built at Albert Road in in the next few years. The proposal is at the pre-application stage. The school is expected to cater for pupils from the north of Croydon borough, as this is where growth in demand for school places is predicted to be from in the coming years. A significant number of pupils attending this school are expected to use route 130 to travel to and from the school, as, of the three routes that serve the nearest bus corridor to the school, Portland Road, it would provide the greatest number of links to areas in the north of the borough.

7.2.6 Route 314 would remain at 4 bph, continue to be operated by single deck vehicles, and be restructured. It would be withdrawn between New Addington Parkway and AVI and extended from AVI to Kent Gate Way, Selsdon Park Road, Featherbed Lane and Courtwood Lane to terminate at the Forestdale, Courtwood Lane stand, replacing route T31 on this section.

Page | 17 New Addington Bus Network Review

7.2.7 Route 359 would have its frequency increased to 2 bph and continue to be operated by single deck vehicles, but would have its hours of operation extended and be restructured. It would operate between 0700 and 1930 on all days. It would continue to stand at AVI and would take its existing line of route to the junction of Addington Road and Farley Road, then run via Addington Road, Sanderstead Hill, Purley Downs Road and Brighton Road to terminate at the Purley Cross, Brighton Road / High Street stand. A route test would be required.

7.2.8 Route 464 would remain at 2 bph, continue to be operated by single deck vehicles, and be restructured. It would route from its existing line on King Henry’s Drive, left Arnhem Drive, ahead Central Parade to terminate at its existing stand, New Addington Parkway Slip Road.

7.2.9 Routes T31, T32 and N64 would be withdrawn, and route T33 would be renumbered to 433.

7.2.10 Routes 130, 314 and the renumbered 433 would continue to allow free transfer between bus and tram, while this provision would also be introduced on routes 64, 353 and 359.

Page | 18 New Addington Bus Network Review DIGITAL MAP DATA © COLLINS BARTHOLOMEW LTD (2014)

Figure 4: Option 1 routes and frequencies Note: figures shown are existing frequency / proposed frequency

Page | 19 New Addington Bus Network Review

© CROWN COPYRIGHT AND DATABASE RIGHTS 2014 ORDNANCE SURVEY 100035971

Figure 5: Route 359 existing and proposed routeing for both option 1 and option 2

7.3 Option 2

7.3.1 Option 2 proposes identical service changes as option 1, with the exception of routes 314 and 353.

7.3.2 Route 314 would be unchanged from its existing structure, frequency and bus type.

7.3.3 Route 353 would remain at 4 bph, continue to be operated by double deck vehicles, and be extended from AVI to Kent Gate Way, Selsdon Park Road, Featherbed Lane and Courtwood Lane to terminate at the Forestdale, Courtwood Lane stand, replacing route T31 on this section.

Page | 20 New Addington Bus Network Review DIGITAL MAP DATA © COLLINS BARTHOLOMEW LTD (2014)

Figure 6: Option 2 routes and frequencies Note: figures shown are existing frequency / proposed frequency

7.4 Infrastructure Changes

7.4.1 All of the infrastructure changes outlined below, with the exception of that outlined in paragraph 7.4.8, are common to both options.

7.4.2 A new southbound stop would be installed on Central Parade.

7.4.3 Driver toilets would need to be provided at least at one end of the rerouted route 130. As two routes will terminate at Vulcan Way providing facilities here would be a priority.

7.4.4 The Kestrel Way stops on King Henry’s Drive and the Overbury Crescent stops would need to be removed, as they will no longer be served under these proposals.

Page | 21 New Addington Bus Network Review 7.4.5 An informal 64 route test was carried out in June 2014. It established that, to allow buses to make the turn from Overbury Crescent to Homestead Way without conflicting with vehicles making the opposite turn, the inside corner would need to be altered with a shallower exit. In addition, a full tree survey and subsequent trimming would be required on Overbury Crescent between the junctions with Arnhem Drive and Homestead Way, and on Homestead way between the junction with Overbury Crescent and Milne Park East. A formal site meeting would need to be arranged to agree the necessary changes in these locations.

7.4.6 To allow routes 64 and 130 to serve southbound stop BP4989 on King Henry’s Drive, it would need to be moved to the south of the junction with the northern arm of Vulcan Way.

7.4.7 Although 4 stand spaces exist on the service road adjacent to King Henry’s drive, changes may be required to ensure buses have consistent access to the stands, that the routes to and from the stand are suitable, and that buses can get from the stand to the relocated stop BP4989 (which will become the first stop for both routes 64 and 130). A formal site meeting would need to be arranged to establish desired changes once a scheme is formally proposed.

7.4.8 One additional infrastructure change would be required for option 2. Driver toilets would need to be provided at least at one end of the restructured route 353.

7.5 Broken Links

7.5.1 The revised routeings outlined for both options above lead to a number of broken links (passengers who currently have a direct bus service but would not under these proposals), summarised in table 11.

Option 1 Option 2 Broken Broken Broken Broken Route Links Links (%) Links Links (%) Internal 95 2.3% 74 1.8% 64 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 130 24 0.5% 24 0.5% 314 335 5.5% 0 0.0% 353 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 464 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Total 512 157 Table 11: broken links

7.5.2 Retaining route 314 in the estate significantly reduces the number of broken links.

7.6 Benefits and drawbacks

7.6.1 The benefits common to both options are;

Page | 22 New Addington Bus Network Review  Significant reduction in overcapacity within New Addington;

 Small increase in frequency, from 12 to 13 bph, in the part of the estate with highest usage, zone 2 (Fieldway);

 The highest frequencies are along sections with the highest usage per stop, i.e. zone 1 (AVI), zone 2 (Fieldway), zone 4 (Goldcrest Way & Headley Drive East) and zone 10 (New Addington Tramstop);

 Monks Hill gains an all day service at 2 bph;

 New links are created between AVI / Monks Hill / Selsdon Sainsbury’s and Sanderstead / Purley.

 It is expected that 259 new weekday trips are forecast from Purley Downs Road, 310 new weekday trips due to new links between Addington / Forestdale / Selsdon and Sanderstead / Purley, 365 new weekday trips due to increased frequency, longer hours of operation and a Sunday service on the Selsdon-Addington section and 20 new weekday trips due to higher frequency on the route 412 parallel section between Sanderstead Hill and Selsdon Library. This gives a total of 955 new trips per day to the network.

 Approximately 600 households in the vicinity of Purley Downs Road that are currently remote from the bus network will be brought within 400m of a bus route;

 Direct links are created for pupils living in the estate and surrounding area to schools in Purley. In addition, more direct journeys are possible from the estate to Oasis Academy Coulsdon and Coulsdon College, although interchange from route 359 to a high frequency service in Purley is still required;

 Not only are existing links from within the estate to Croydon University Hospital maintained, but the 64 rerouteing also creates new links from other parts of the estate;

 The network within the estate is simplified, with a reduced number of routes;

7.6.2 In addition to the broken links, there are drawbacks common to both options:

 Passengers along Courtwood Lane will lose their turn up and go frequency;

 No services will serve the Kestrel Way stops on King Henry’s Drive. ODX data indicates that these stops have an approximate combined number of boarding and alighting passengers of 50 per weekday, while BODS indicates this number to be approximately 100. These stops are

Page | 23 New Addington Bus Network Review approximately 150m from a stop pair on Goldcrest Way that will be served by route 64 under option 1 and by routes 64 and 314 under option 2;

 No services will serve the stops on Overbury Crescent. ODX data indicates that these stops have an approximate combined number of boarding and alighting passengers of 100 per weekday, while BODS indicates this number is approximately 175. These stops are approximately 300m from the stops at New Addington Tramstop, which will be served by all routes entering the estate under both options.

 Zone 4 (Goldcrest Way / Headley Drive East) will have a significant reduction in frequency, from 20 bph to 8 bph under option 1, and to 12 bph under option 2. However, even for option 1 this translates to an average wait time of under 4 minutes.

7.6.3 Option 2 has additional benefits over option 1:

 As outlined in the section above, broken links on route 314 will be eliminated, markedly reducing the overall broken links as a result of the scheme;

 Links from the estate to zones 13 (West Wickham & Hayes), 14 (Bromley) and 15 (Elmstead and Eltham) will be maintained.

7.7 Option Appraisal

7.7.1 Both options have been appraised using standard London Buses processes. This estimates the changes in cost, passenger numbers, revenue and passenger benefit attributable to a scheme, and evaluates how worthwhile a scheme is, based on these estimates.

7.7.2 For a scheme that carries an annual cost, it must have a benefit to net cost ratio of 2 to 1 or greater to meet current criteria, and for a scheme that reduces the annual cost, it must have a disbenefit to net saving ratio of less than 1.6 to 1.

Page | 24 New Addington Bus Network Review Route Scheme Cost £pa Revenue Passenger Net Cost Benefit Mileage PVR £pa Benefits £pa to Net £pa Cost Ratio X:1 Cut back to Addington Village Interchange & 64 £1,321,590 331,406 6 extend to New Addington Vulcan Way N64 Convert to 24 hour route £56,997 3,920 0

130 Reroute in New Addington (£14,527) (16,962) 0 (£181,688) (£995,799) (£692,324) 1.4 Cut back to Addington 314 (£380,664) (98,249) (2) Village Interchange 464 Reroute in New Addington (£2,121) (2,778) 0 Cut back to Addington T31 (£1,148,934) (372,614) (5) Village Interchange T32 Withdraw (£706,352) (153,150) (3)

STEP 1 TOTAL (£874,012) (£181,688) (£995,799) (£692,324) 1.4 (308,426) (4)

314 Extend to Forestdale £246,309 61,207 2 (£11,420) (£58,481) (£615,398) 0.1 T31 Withdraw (£873,128) (127,022) (4)

STEP 2 TOTAL (£626,819) (£11,420) (£58,481) (£615,398) 0.1 (65,815) (2) Extend hours of operation to 0700-1945 Mon-Sun, 359 £544,749 £165,265 £743,692 £379,484 2.0 101,396 3 remove widening & extend to Purley Cross STEP 3 TOTAL £544,749 £165,265 £743,692 £379,484 2.0 101,396 3 Increase M-F peak 130 £218,988 £68,451 £334,920 £150,537 2.2 31,959 2 frequnecy to 5 bph Increase M-F interpeak & 130 Sat daytimes frequency to £129,938 £61,017 £302,512 £68,921 4.4 41,848 0 5 bph STEP 4 & 5 TOTAL £348,926 £129,468 £637,432 £219,458 2.9 73,806 2 ALL SCHEME TOTAL (£607,156) £101,624 £326,845 (£708,780) (199,038) (1) GAIN Table 12: option 1 appraisal

Page | 25 New Addington Bus Network Review Route Scheme Cost £pa Revenue Passenger Net Cost Benefit Mileage PVR £pa Benefits £pa to Net £pa Cost Ratio X:1 Cut back to Addington Village Interchange & 64 £1,321,590 331,406 6 extend to New Addington Vulcan Way N64 Convert to 24 hour route £56,997 3,920 0

130 Reroute in New Addington (£14,527) (£69,612) (£399,057) (£423,736) 0.9 (16,962) 0

464 Reroute in New Addington (£2,121) (2,778) 0 Cut back to Addington T31 (£1,148,934) (372,614) (5) Village Interchange T32 Withdraw (£706,352) (153,150) (3)

STEP 1 TOTAL (£493,348) (£69,612) (£399,057) (£423,736) 0.9 (210,177) (2)

353 Extend to Forestdale £223,811 58,428 1 (£11,428) (£58,523) (£637,889) 0.1 T31 Withdraw (£873,128) (68,594) (4)

STEP 2 TOTAL (£649,317) (£11,428) (£58,523) (£637,889) 0.1 (10,165) (3) Extend hours of operation to 0700-1945 Mon-Sun, 359 £544,749 £165,265 £743,692 £379,484 2.0 101,396 3 remove widening & extend to Purley Cross

STEP 3 TOTAL £544,749 £165,265 £743,692 £379,484 2.0 101,396 3 Increase M-F peak 130 £218,988 £67,243 £328,107 £151,745 2.2 31,959 2 frequnecy to 5 bph Increase M-F interpeak & 130 Sat daytimes frequency to £129,938 £59,921 £296,084 £70,017 4.2 41,848 0 5 bph

STEP 4 & 5 TOTAL £348,926 £127,163 £624,191 £221,763 2.8 73,806 2 ALL SCHEME TOTAL (£248,990) £211,388 £910,303 (£460,378) (45,140) 0 GAIN Table 13: option 2 appraisal

7.7.3 Both options save TfL money whilst increasing the benefits to passengers so are classed as All Gain schemes. Option 2 is the preferred option. Although the saving is smaller, the passenger benefit is almost three times as much.

Page | 26 New Addington Bus Network Review 8 Appendices

8.1 Appendix 1: ODX generated origin and destination matrix

Zones 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 0 0 2 1104 944 160 3 183 182 1 0 4 389 277 89 9 14 Trips within New Addington 4051 5 29 6 21 0 2 0 Trips to or from New Addington 3324 6 214 130 32 19 33 0 0 7 346 50 115 12 69 14 12 74 8 532 63 220 0 121 25 23 62 18 9 5 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 10 1016 60 229 47 106 8 51 149 358 2 6 11 142 44 0 25 25 0 20 12 0 1 15 0 12 91 25 14 0 9 1 0 4 14 0 24 0 0 13 269 183 5 29 24 0 0 0 0 7 21 21 0 342 14 432 243 3 50 42 0 0 0 0 28 66 27 0 626 380 15 66 54 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 104 998 2608 16 306 121 122 0 18 0 20 0 22 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 280 17 139 32 61 0 9 0 20 0 13 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 175 328 18 217 61 75 0 20 0 15 0 33 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 193 337 582 19 73 55 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 166 20 194 120 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 22 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 768 3004 21 107 61 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 31 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 121 2327 230 22 327 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 122 0 205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 134 23 252 194 26 0 9 1 0 8 5 0 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 656 407 51 0 1 0 0 3 2 0 192 85 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 217 1434 106 0 27 448 Total 3315 1238 194 509 49 161 312 587 38 686 197 89 1072 1378 2608 648 665 582 1272 6765 336 134 51 448

Page | 27 New Addington Bus Network Review 8.2 Appendix 2: Sensitivity check – BODS vs ODX link usage data

ZONE 1 BODS 1 ODX 2 BODS 2 ODX 3 BODS 3 ODX 4 BODS 4 ODX 5 BODS 5 ODX 6 BODS 6 ODX 7 BODS 7 ODX 8 BODS 8 ODX 9 BODS 9 ODX 10 BODS 10 ODX 11 BODS 11 ODX 12 BODS 12 ODX 1 0 0% 0% 0 2 875 23% 28% 944 94 6% 13% 160 3 139 4% 5% 182 3 0% 0% 1 1 0% 0% 0 4 244 6% 8% 277 84 5% 7% 89 20 5% 5% 9 4 1% 3% 14 5 17 0% 0% 6 43 3% 2% 21 0 0% 0% 0 15 2% 0% 2 3 3% 0% 0 6 266 7% 4% 130 57 4% 3% 32 39 10% 10% 19 67 10% 6% 33 0 0% 0% 0 8 2% 0% 0 7 32 1% 2% 50 83 5% 9% 115 66 17% 6% 12 99 15% 14% 69 38 35% 29% 14 68 16% 7% 12 46 13% 24% 74 8 69 2% 2% 63 223 14% 18% 220 0 0% 0% 0 82 12% 24% 121 24 22% 51% 25 53 13% 14% 23 79 22% 20% 62 84 8% 3% 18 9 9 0% 0% 3 0 0% 0% 0 6 2% 0% 0 2 0% 0% 2 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 10 126 3% 2% 60 270 17% 18% 229 79 20% 24% 47 127 19% 21% 106 35 32% 16% 8 189 45% 32% 51 199 55% 48% 149 635 62% 61% 358 12 16% 5% 2 0 0% 1% 6 11 66 2% 1% 44 2 0% 0% 0 79 20% 13% 25 92 14% 5% 25 0 0% 0% 0 28 7% 12% 20 18 5% 4% 12 0 0% 0% 0 2 3% 3% 1 33 2% 2% 15 0 0% 0% 0 12 61 2% 1% 25 16 1% 1% 14 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 2% 9 7 6% 2% 1 0 0% 0% 0 10 3% 1% 4 24 2% 2% 14 0 0% 0% 0 52 4% 3% 24 10 3% 0% 0 2 1% 0% 0 13 216 6% 6% 183 9 1% 0% 5 52 13% 15% 29 43 6% 5% 24 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 20 26% 18% 7 50 3% 3% 21 10 3% 11% 21 0 0% 0% 0 14 248 7% 7% 243 14 1% 0% 3 54 14% 26% 50 37 5% 8% 42 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 40 52% 74% 28 83 6% 10% 66 37 13% 14% 27 0 0% 0% 0 15 93 2% 2% 54 3 0% 0% 0 4 1% 2% 3 2 0% 1% 5 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 3 4% 0% 0 22 2% 1% 4 8 3% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 16 191 5% 4% 121 174 11% 10% 122 0 0% 0% 0 12 2% 4% 18 0 0% 0% 0 37 9% 12% 20 0 0% 0% 0 31 3% 4% 22 0 0% 0% 0 12 1% 0% 3 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 17 58 2% 1% 32 109 7% 5% 61 0 0% 0% 0 34 5% 2% 9 0 0% 0% 0 18 4% 12% 20 0 0% 0% 0 31 3% 2% 13 0 0% 0% 0 17 1% 1% 4 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 18 76 2% 2% 61 142 9% 6% 75 0 0% 0% 0 48 7% 4% 20 0 0% 0% 0 20 5% 9% 15 0 0% 0% 0 49 5% 6% 33 0 0% 0% 0 23 2% 2% 13 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 19 30 1% 2% 55 2 0% 0% 1 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 29 2% 2% 17 10 3% 6% 11 8 4% 1% 1 20 212 6% 4% 120 59 4% 1% 10 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 197 13% 9% 64 71 25% 11% 22 77 39% 27% 24 21 78 2% 2% 61 8 1% 0% 3 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 84 6% 6% 43 22 8% 16% 31 20 10% 17% 15 22 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 161 16% 21% 122 0 0% 0% 0 550 38% 30% 205 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 23 140 4% 6% 194 59 4% 2% 26 0 0% 0% 0 6 1% 2% 9 1 1% 2% 1 0 0% 0% 0 7 2% 3% 8 4 0% 1% 5 0 0% 0% 0 4 0% 1% 9 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 1% 1 24 535 14% 12% 407 94 6% 4% 51 0 0% 0% 0 7 1% 0% 1 0 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 1 0% 1% 3 9 1% 0% 2 0 0% 0% 0 311 21% 28% 192 117 41% 43% 85 92 46% 54% 48 0 3782 3315 1547 1238 400 194 676 509 108 49 421 161 359 312 1028 587 77 38 1466 686 286 197 198 89

Page | 28 New Addington Bus Network Review 8.3 Appendix 3: Keypoints data at AVI

8.3.1 Away from New Addington

Page | 29 New Addington Bus Network Review 8.3.2 Into New Addington

Page | 30 New Addington Bus Network Review