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Legislative Report – 2020 Election Update Prepared November 13, 2020

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Legislative Report – 2020 Election Update Prepared November 13, 2020 Legislative Report – 2020 Election Update Prepared November 13, 2020 Election Results: • With 326,840 votes counted and approximately 34,000 votes remaining to be counted, Alaskans voted strongly in favor of President Trump (53.7%), incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (54.3%) and Congressman Don Young (54.7%). Senator Sullivan will begin his 2nd 6-year term as US Senator and Congressman Young will begin his 26th 2-year term and continues as 45th Dean of the US House of Representatives. Congressman Young was first elected to the House on March 6, 1973. • Eleven state senate races were on the 2020 ballot. The August primary election resulted in incumbent President of the Senate Cathy Giessel losing to challenger Roger Holland (Senate District N). Mr. Holland (R) leads Carl Johnson (D) by 831 votes however there are 1,404 votes remaining to be counted. The August primary also resulted in the dramatic loss (1,739 to 1,725 = 14 votes!) of longtime legislator Senator John Coghill, first elected to the legislature in 1998, to challenger Robert Myers. Mr. Myers has a comfortable lead (57%-37%) with only 294 votes outstanding. All other Senate incumbents have sufficient leads and will be re-elected [David Wilson – Wasilla; Shelly Hughes – Palmer; Bill Wielechowski – Anchorage; Tom Begich – Anchorage; Natasha von Imhof – Anchorage; Joshua Revak – Anchorage; Gary Stevens – Kodiak; Bert Stedman – Ketchikan/Sitka; Donny Olson – Nome/Kotzebue/Utqiagvik). • All 40 House of Representative seats were on the ballot and the results are reasonably clear except in a few cases. The August primary resulted in the loss of five incumbents [Mark Neuman – Big Lake; Sharon Jackson – Eagle River; Gabrielle LeDoux – Anchorage; Chuck Kopp – Anchorage; Jennifer Johnston – Anchorage]. Additionally, John Lincoln – Kotzebue/Utqiagvik, Dave Talerico – Healy and Colleen Sullivan-Leonard – Wasilla all declined to file for re-election. Gary Knopp – Kenai was killed in an aircraft incident July 31. • Incumbent representatives Bart LeBon – Fairbanks; Steve Thomson – Fairbanks; Mike Prax – North Pole; Grier Hopkins – Fairbanks; Adam Wool – Fairbanks; George Rauscher – Glennallen/Valdez; David Eastman – Big Lake; DeLena Johnson – Palmer; Cathy Tilton – Wasilla; Kelly Merrick – Eagle River; Ivy Spohnholz – Anchorage; Andy Josephson – Anchorage; Harriet Drummond – Anchorage; Geran Tarr – Anchorage; Zack Fields – Anchorage; Matt Claman – Anchorage; Sara Rasmussen – Anchorage; Chris Tuck – Anchorage; Laddie Shaw – Anchorage; Benjamin Carpenter – Nikiski; Sarah Vance – Homer; Louise Stutes – Kodiak; Sara Hannan – Juneau; Andrea Story – Juneau; Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins – Sitka; Daniel Ortiz – Ketchikan; Bryce Edgmon – Dillingham; Tiffany Zulkosky – Bethel; Neal Foster – Nome were all successful in their bid for re-election. • Challengers Mike Cronk – Healy/Delta; Christopher Kurka – Wasilla; Kevin McCabe – Big Lake; Ken McCarty – Eagle River; Tom McKay – Anchorage; Calvin Schrage – Anchorage and Ron Gillham – Kenai were successful in their bid for election. • Races too close to call at this time include: o District 15 – (currently held by Gabrielle LeDoux) David Nelson (R) leads his opponent Lyn Franks 2,346 to 2,230 with 544 votes outstanding. o District 27 – (currently held by Lance Pruitt) Lance Pruitt (R) leads his opponent Liz Snyder 4,325 to 4,267 with 588 votes outstanding. o District 28 – (formerly held by Jennifer Johnston) James Kaufman (R) leads his opponent Suzanne LaFrance 5,827 to 5,406 with 816 votes outstanding. o District 40 – (currently held by John Lincoln) Josiah Patkotak (Nonaffiliated) leads his opponent Elizabeth Ferguson (D) 2,011 to 1,863 with 571 votes outstanding. • All judges on the ballot were retained. • The general election included two ballot measures: o Ballot Measure No. 1 (19OGTX) relating to oil tax policy is failing - 58.02% ‘NO’ to 41.98% ‘YES’. o Ballot Measure No. 2 (AKBE) relating to open primary election, ranked choice voting in general elections and election finance reporting requirements appears to be prevailing 50.08% ‘YES’ to 49.92 ‘NO’. While 33,959 votes remain to be counted, the trend following election night results has seen the measure steadily come from behind as absentee votes are counted. If this trend continues, the measure will pass. • All ballots will be counted by close of business November 18 and the Division of Elections expects to certify the 2020 election on November 25. Election Impacts: • With regards to the US Senate, currently there are 50 Republicans and 48 Democrat/Independents with the two Senate seats from Georgia undecided. A January 5, 2021 special runoff election will decide the outcome of the Georgia US Senate races. A Republican controlled Senate would propel both Senator Murkowski and Senator Sullivan higher on the seniority list which strengthens their hand with respect to Alaskan issues. If both Georgia seats were to be Democrats, the Senate would be evenly divided thereby defaulting to the Vice President to break the tie. In that situation, the Democrats would have 51 and the Republicans 50, a rather stunning development if that were to occur. • The US House of Representatives will be controlled by the Democrats although their majority will be slightly less than the current margin. Congressman Young will continue to serve as the Dean of the US House of Representatives and has proven over time to be effective regardless whether he is in the majority or minority. • There are 13 Republicans in the Alaska Senate and 7 Democrats. It remains to be seen if the Republicans will organize a ruling majority consisting of Republicans only or whether they will invite some Democrats into their majority or whether a majority will be formed with some Republicans and Democrats resulting in the subset Republican minority. There have been deep divisions within the Republican members of the Senate during the current legislature and it remains to be seen if those divisions will be bridged or remain. • Organization in the House is a toss-up. While there appears to be a slight edge for Republicans, some races are too close to call at this time. In addition, similar to the Senate, there are differences within the Republican members which means the narrower the margins, the more difficult it becomes to form a working majority (a majority being 21-members or greater). This was the situation at the beginning of the 31st Legislature where the House was unable to establish a bipartisan majority and organize until February 13, 2019, some 30-days into the session. Post-Election: • Congress will continue in a lame duck session likely through mid-December. The 117th Congress will begin January 3, 2021. • Governor Dunleavy will release the proposed Fiscal Year 2022 operating and capital budget on or before December 15. • The Alaska State Legislature will convene Tuesday, January 19, 2021. Due to the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19), the legislature will limit the public’s access to the Capitol Building allowing access to members, staff and credentialed members of the press. This may be revised depending upon changes made by Legislative Council at a later date. .
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