■Labor ■ Queensiciid Review into Labor’s Brisbane City Councii Eiection Campaign 2016 Report by Elias Hallaj
ILL
Rod Harding for Lord Mayor The Review of Queensland Labor’s Brisbane City Council (BCC) campaign in 2016 was undertaken by former ACT Branch Secretary Elias Hallaj and submitted as a report to the June Administrative Committee of the Queensland Branch of the ALP. Contents for BCC 2016 Election Campaign Review
4 Executive Summary
5 Terms of Reference
6 Submissions and interviews
9 Summary of Recommendations
12 Background / BCC Electoral landscape
16 Core Labor message and central themes
17 Preselection process
19 Campaign structure and MECs
21 Campaign training, planning and capacity
23 Policy development
26 Public opinion polls and the ward battlegrounds
28 Media coverage, advertising and earned media
30 Social media
31 Lead-up to the formal campaign
33 Key issues and Ward plans
35 Formal campaign and early voting
36 Final week
38 Election Day
39 Outcome
42 The Gabba and Northgate results and localised issues
44 The emerging Green vote
46 The Mayoral campaign
47 Conclusions
3. Executive Summary
Although Labor achieved the highest ALP 2PP Mayoral vote in 12 years the result of the 2016 Brisbane City Council campaign was very disappointing for many Labor Party members and supporters. Particularly disappointing for many was the loss of two Labor wards in circumstances where most of the campaign seemed to be progressing well for much of the formal campaign period.
This review invited members of the party and campaign There is an acknowledgement in the Queensland teams to reflect on their recent experience, analyse Branch that local government provides an important the results and make recommendations to assist building block for our party. It's an opportunity future campaigns. In total there were more than 90 to recruit party supporters, members and future submissions and interviews. They all deserve thanks candidates as well as improve the skills and knowledge and acknowledgement, as do the thousands of of party members and supporters in communications, volunteers who devoted time and effort to this and campaign techniques and policy debate and other Labor campaigns. Their continued contribution development. to this campaign through the review demonstrated This recent acknowledgement and focus exacerbated that despite the loss and disappointment they valued the sense of loss and frustration from the defeat in the the process and had faith in their party that members’ mayoral contest as well as seeing previously Labor- efforts are appreciated and form part of a broader held wards go to both the LNP and Greens. For many purposeful consultation. it seemed the significant gains in many wards and the Throughout this process I was impressed by the exemplary performance of many Labor candidates and lack of finger-pointing and blame attributed by the campaigners was overshadowed by inexplicable losses people who participated and made submissions. in those three specific contests. This is a sign that they don’t see elections and But in reality all losses and wins are explainable and party activity as an end in itself, but are primarily the wisdom of hindsight often reveals factors beyond motivated by their desire to see Labor campaigns the control of candidates and campaign directors. I succeed and Labor policies and values promoted in believe it is important not to conflate the overall result government. During discussions and interviews with and effort with specific results and lessons in local party members, candidates and representatives there wards. Many people are trying to understand what was an overwhelming consensus that Queensland happened in The Gabba and Northgate Wards and Branch officials and staff at Party Office had provided if particular and separate lessons can be drawn from unprecedented support and assistance in this local individual v^/ard results as well as the mayoral campaign. election campaign. The overall result did not reflect the There are also lessons that should be drawn from other heightened focus on local campaigning in 2016 and its local government contests both in Queensland and use as valuable campaign capacity-building platform other parts of Australia. Where the ALP shows strong for upcoming federal and state campaigns. leadership and growth in local politics usually reflects I understand that it has been several decades since a healthy branch network as well as state and federal an external review was undertaken of a Brisbane City contestability. Council campaign. One life member lamented that it Over the last two years the Queensland Branch has was a brave move and "the first time in 54 years a Qld wisely invested time in improving the skills, resourcing Branch Secretary sought such input from ordinary and coordination for its local campaign teams. Despite members of the ALP”. This review is another sign that the disappointing result in this year’s Brisbane City the Queensland Branch takes local government very Council election, there has been a perceptible increase seriously. There is a clear determination to learn from in campaign capacity that will be available for future this loss and apply those lessons in future to assist local elections and ongoing development of policy and government candidates and representatives as well as membership engagement. party members.
4. How the party handles the next six months will lay the groundwork for the next BCC campaign. There is a Terms of strong hope amongst many of the contributors to this Review that the hard work over the past 12-18 months will be backed-in and reinforced with a sound strategy Reference and plan for the next BCC campaign. Following the fourth successive defeat of The frustration of many experienced campaigners over Labor in the Brisbane City Council elections, the disappointing result was aptly summed up by the Queensland Labor will conduct a review of opening line in one submission. "It was a shit-house our election campaign and our performance result, but not much could be done about it in the circumstances.” in Council since 2012.
One common explanation for the re-election of a Lord The review should consider: Mayor who voters were not excited or enthusiastic The effectiveness of Labor's performance in about was because voters feared that change would Brisbane City Council since the 2012 election bring a hung Parliament like the OLD Parliament or including the policy agenda, political strategy and a gridlock-type Canberra situation that was on show communications in the Senate throughout the final week of the BCC campaign, The BCC result, in particular the mayoral The effectiveness in Labor’s 2016 BCC election result, would indicate that voters opted for a stable and campaign including strategy, communications, safe choice over any degree of uncertainty. organising and research
One candidate explained she "felt like I’d won the The loss of Council wards and how this can be battle but lost the war, and that was very frustrating.” avoided in the future Like many of her colleagues she felt she and her team had run a very professional and effective campaign Opportunities for improvements to be made for and they were impressed by the contagious energy future campaigns and enthusiasm of Rod Harding and the head office The review will seek submissions from Councillors, team. However, in the end it was clear that Lord Mayor Party members and affiliated unions. The Panel will Graham Quirk, despite being ineffective, was also also consult with key community stakeholders and inoffensive enough to be re-elected. supporters.
It would be an injustice to write anything about the Submissions should be made by Friday 8 April 2016. 2016 Labor campaign for the Brisbane City Council without acknowledging the hard work and sacrifices The review will be undertaken by former ACT Branch of Labor's candidates, their families, supporters and Secretary Elias Hallaj. volunteers as well as the dedicated leadership and staff The review will report to the May Administrative at the OLD Branch. The result certainly did not reflect Committee (this was subsequently held over until on the abilities and dedication of the Qld Branch or its the June Administrative Committee due to the large membership. number of members' submissions). Acknowledgements Interviews and submissions were concentrated around mid-April. A large number of people contributed to this Review with either a written submission or interview and in several cases both. The credit for initiating and administrating this Review should go to the QLD Branch Party office as well as to each person and group which made a submission or stepped forward to be interviewed. Much of the content is largely from those submissions and interviews.
Whenever possible the reviewer has not identified people who are quoted. The reality is much of the sentiment was repeated by several (and in some cases most) of the submissions which were made). Most contributors appreciated the opportunity to continue participating in a largely positive campaign, despite the disappointing results. Direct quotes are often used where an individual submission has captured the sentiment of several Interviews and written submissions.
Typical submissions began with very positive sentiments such as one “thanking Queensland Labor officials for initiating an independent review into the 2016 Brisbane City Council Election campaign and for the opportunity to contribute. This review and the reforms that will hopefully stem from it are vital if Labor is to learn the lessons of what was ultimately a devastating election result.”
Another submission stated "I acknowledge the work and energy that the Secretary, Evan Moorhead, and his capable team too numerous to mention who gave to the administration and funding of the campaign. I also wish to acknowledge numerous federal candidates and staff and their commitment to the campaign when they were anxious to focus on Federal issues in an important year for them.”
SUBMISSIONS RECEIVED FROM
FIRST NAME SURNAME ROLE/POSITION/PARTY UNIT
Wayne Swan Ex State Secretary, Lilley MP Jim Soorley ' Ex Mayor, New Farm Branch y Milton Dick Ex BCC Caucus Leader Ken - Boyne Yeronga - : Evan Moorhead Branch Secretary Jon > Persley Assistant Branch Secretary Jackie Trad Deputy Premier, MP South Brisbane Sharon Humphreys Campaign Coordinator . -H John Bird Chairman Labor Holdings Sharon Neame Branch Executive Officer Mike Kaiser Former Party Secretary Jaxen Wood ' ■ Branch Digital Organise'^^^HBBHH Rod Harding Mayoral Candidate Brent Hampstead Media Adviser .• Shayne Sutton Councillor, Morningside -3^ Stephanie Serhan Candidate, Marchant Arch Bevis Former Member for Brisbane Shane j Bevis Candidate, The Gap 6. Helen Abrahams Former Councillor, The Gabba Nicole Lessio Candidate, The Gabba Hayden Schofield Gabba Campaign Director Elly Desmarchelier Gabba Campaign Manager Amber Hawkins Candidate for Central Ward Kim Flesser Former Councillor, Northqate__ Peter Cumming Councillor, Wynnum Manly Stanley Hsu Candidate, Runcorn Jared Cassidy Councillor, Deagon Jeanette Temperley Organiser Lucy Collier Organiser Gerry Steel Organiser Adam Obeid Candidate, Holland Park Jeff Eelkema Candidate, Paddington Janine Aitken Organiser Josh Millroy Organiser Dee Madigan Advertising Campaign Steve Griffiths Councillor, Moorooka Cath Palmer Candidate, Bracken Ridge Charles Strunk Councillor, Forest Lake Matthew Campbell Candidate, Coorparoo Stella Rey Marchant Campaign Mark Woodley Kurilpa Branch John Campbell Doboy Campaign John Kelly Aspley Branch Simon Dilly Salisbury Branch Leslie Shannon Yeronga Peter Henneken West End Anne Maree Sleat Brisbane Ashwina Gotame Sunnybank Central Christopher McLeod Aspley Branch Clare Grant Nundah Clifford Braddon Gabba Dean Hopton Coopers Plains Frank Carroll Yeronga . Jaak Mardiste Runcorn-Kuraby James Sparkes Nudgee Banyo 7. Jason McCubbin Sanyo John Laing • The Gap Ken Fuller Lytton Les Bryant Inala Branch Lucy Cameron West End Lyne Fomiatti Lytton Maureen Neems Sandgate Maxim Otten-Kamp Wynnum/Waterloo Owen Wareham Stafford Tony Cook Brisbane Michael Kolmet Pullenvale Ross Williams Ferny Grove Peter Whittle Greenslopes Trevor Jones Mitchelton Noel Murphy Fortitude Valley Sharyn Morrow Stretton Therese O'Driscoll Banyo Nathan Seng Redcliffe Wilma James Algester Pauline McLaughlin Manly Don Willis Carina-Carindale David Shankey South Brisbane Lisa O'Donnell Greenslopes Alan Snow Cannon Hill - Morningside Alan Taylor Walter Taylor Branch Gayle Dallaston Aspley Branch Jacqueline Schneider Annerley Branch John Waight Paddington Branch Kerry Hackett Wynnum/Waterloo Kerryn Loose Jones Candidate Doboy Philip Anthony Candidate Hamilton Reg Neil Candidate Northgate Terry Sullivan Chermside Kedron Branch
8. Summary of key recommendations The body of the Review explains the following recommendations in more detail and in the context of the various stages of Labor’s BCC campaign. However, it is valuable to consider the individual recommendations in the context of the Terms Of Reference. Each of the recommendations below is followed by a number indicating the chapter in which it is found; 1. Effectiveness of Labor’s performance in Lord Mayoral campaign and Councillors.
Brisbane City Council since 2012 • Set up and maintain a good data base of local issues and local commitments that the opposition Labor’s Caucus performed well since 2012 in difficult and potential candidates in non-held wards can still circumstances. In many ways their hands were run on this term. (11.1) tied behind their backs by restrictive rules and fewer resources than the incumbent Mayor and his 2. Effectiveness of the 2016 BCC campaign Councillors. However, the Review identifies steps which can be taken to ensure that in future Labor’s local Labor's BCC Campaign in 2016 was the most well- government team in Brisbane might be better prepared resourced and well-regarded BCC campaign for many and equipped for the very difficult challenge of years, with unprecedented support from full-time unseating incumbents in local government campaigns. campaign organisers and other staff in Party Office. The research and communications support was in LNP promises should be monitored and campaign many ways unprecedented for a local government plans put in place now for BCC councillors and campaign. However, the Review identified simple MFCs to gather the information required to hold the misunderstanding amongst some campaigners of basic Mayor and BCC to account, (2.2) campaign techniques, indicating not all participants understood the strategies being employed by the Plans should be put in place to attempt to provide campaign leadership. There is a large scope for future BCC candidates and their teams the same continuing to refine the use of research, training and high levels of professional support and training they organising techniques, particularly with emerging received in 2016. (3.2) technologies, to place the Party in a stronger position The Party Rules should require MFCs to meet for future campaigns. regularly and where they are defunct they should All the materials used during BCC campaigns by be actively resuscitated and supported by local state and federal representative and other party all parties should be stored in a secure archive for future reference and possible use by future units. (4,1) campaign directors. (5.2) A BCC policy development strategy should be • The Call Centre should be maintained as a discussed and implemented by the end of 2016. permanent fixture and resource within Party Office (6.1) and utilised by Councillors as well as MPs and « To address some of the systemic disadvantages Senators and volunteers on a regular basis for mini of Oppositions in holding BCC administrations campaigns around various issues of importance to to account, it would be worth having a 'root and Labor voters. (5.3) branch’ review of the legislation governing Brisbane Provide earlier media training and support for City Council, (6.4) preselected candidates. (8.2) The BCC Labor team continue to place a Invest in more training for Councillors and premium on quality earned media coverage development of targeted social media campaigning and where possible other Party units provide techniques to prepare for the next BCC campaign. support and assistance to monitor and support an ongoing media strategy for BCC Councillors and (8.3) campaigners. (8.1) Set up monitoring of LNP Councillors social media activity, particularly potential successors of the Provide more ongoing direct media support to the 9. current Lord Mayor, (9.1) 3. The loss of Council Wards and how this can Provide regular annual training in using Campaign be avoided Central to run targeted campaigns with limited resources. (12.2) Labor’s loss of two Wards in 2016 was very Labor should continue to utilise the first and disappointing and detracted from improvements final 72 hours of any campaign to frame the key and successful swings towards Labor in the Mayoral themes and differentiate the two parties. Labor contest and other Wards. The losses can be at last should continue to plan to use this time to remind partly explained by several localised factors, such as the voters about key issues and maintain campaign failure to utilise the opportunity to retire incumbents in momentum through media events and voter time to allow new Councillors to establish themselves contact at the local level. (13.1) and develop closer ties to the community prior to the election campaign. An unprecedented level of training, support and information was provided in this BCC campaign and The Party should conduct preselections between the Party should continue to look for more ways of 18 and 12 months prior to elections as a matter of sharing best practice between campaign teams and course unless there are exceptional circumstances. continue to provide support to any inexperienced (3.1) or new campaigners in preparation for election day. A closer review of the research conducted in several (14.1) recent interstate and Qld local, state and federal Consideration should be given to distributing more campaigns should be made. Recommendations material which targets preferences before and about methodology, accuracy and strategy of past during election day. (14.2) and current research should be provided to assist in designing the research plan for the next BCC Labor should adopt as a standard operating campaign to ensure best practices are considered procedure the LNP tactic of replacing retiring and utilised were they can be afforded. (7.1) Councillors at the 12-month mark to enable adequate succession planning and engagement All the research used during BCC campaigns should with the community by new Councillors. (15.1) be stored in a secure archive for future reference and use by future campaign directors. (7.2) Succession planning must be taken seriously and potential candidates in each key ward should Invest in more doorknocking and phoning be spoken to early and assisted in developing training for party members and BCC Councillors a community profile before being endorsed as and development of targeted grassroots and candidates. (15.2) community campaigning techniques to prepare for the next BCC campaign. (10.1) The results in the two wards which Labor lost can be explained partially by localised factors and Continue investing in an ongoing campaign training would require a targeted and localised strategy to programs for all party members utilising best regain in future elections. (16.1) practice in Queensland and existing experienced campaigners and trainers from across the state and Local MFCs assisted by other party units should be around Australia. (10.2) maintained in all Wards and in particular both The Gabba and Northgate Wards. (16.2) Consider utilising webinars and other new training techniques to improve campaign skills sharing and Qld Labor should work closely with other Labor development across the state. (10.3) campaigners in jurisdictions with strong or emerging Green Party votes to ascertain which Explain the purpose and effect of running targeted localised strategy will be most suited in the various postal vote campaigns to all Councillors and BCC Wards and during the Mayoral campaign in campaigners. Some teams will require more training 2020. (171) and support than others. (12.1)
10. 4. Opportunities for improvements for future and allows best practice in local government campaigns and grassroots campaigning to be shared and promoted within the party. This could potentially Labor's BCC campaign was very well run on multiple become a national event hosted by the Queensland levels. The Review provided a valuable opportunity Branch and a national network of local government to encourage experienced Party campaigners to campaign skills and expertise that could be utilised suggest ways that the party can continue to develop its in future BCC election campaigns. (4.2) campaigning capacity and its utilisation of grassroots A BCC Strategy Group should be set up and community campaign techniques in future elections start meeting at least two years prior to the next and policy development. election. (6.2) The experience of key personnel in the 2016 BCC The BCC Strategy group should liaise with MECs campaign should be utilised .as soon as practical and Councillors to coordinate policy development to start the policy development, party debate prior to the next election. (6.3) and community consultations for the next BCC campaign. (2.1) Ensure sitting members are proactively inviting candidates to represent or accompany them to Party Officers should provide continuous grassroots community/local events and meetings (10.4) campaign training for MFCs, party activists and potential candidates. (5.1) Maintain a spotlight on the fact that the LNP has saddled Brisbane with a very large debt and remind The Party should organise and conduct an people how this affects ratepayers and what Labor annual conference or seminar which focuses on will do about it in the future. (11.2) the importance and value of local government
NEW ENERGY
G A brief history and background to the current BCC Electoral landscape A good background summary to the 2016 Brisbane City minority government, and at the start of a federal Council Elections is available on many public websites, election year, the results in Brisbane will be watched for including the ABC. "Brisbane City Council is Australia's state and federal implications. largest local government body and was created in "The administration of LNP Lord Mayor Graham Quirk the 1920s by the amalgamation of areas from 20 was favoured to win re-election, but the question is local authorities. It was the only success for Australian how much Labor's vote will recover from the depths it proponents of 'greater city’ councils. The Council has plumbed in 2012. In the Lord Mayoral contest in 2012, control over a number of services that in other states Quirk polled 61.9% of the first preference vote, up 1.9 are run by state government. This includes Brisbane percentage points on Newman’s 2008 result, and City Council having much greater involvement in public 68.5% after preferences (+2.4). Labor's Lord Mayoral transport, traffic management and in the development Candidate Ray Smith polled 25.2% (-3.8), Green Andrew of major road projects. Brisbane electors have two Bartlett 10.7% (+2.3) while two other candidates polled votes, one for a local ward Councillor and a second 2.2%. The LNP won 18 Council seats, gaining three for the Lord Mayor. Voting for both is by optional wards from Labor but unable to recover Tennyson preferential voting, as used at Queensland and NSW ward from LNP turned Independent councillor Nicole state elections. The average enrolment in Brisbane Johnston. wards for the 2016 election will be just under 28,000, making them around the same size as Queensland state “Although there have been no by-elections since 2012, electorates.” two casual vacancies have been filled in the last twelve months. In Deagon ward, long serving Labor councillor "Unlike other local government bodies in Queensland, Victoria Newton retired and was replaced by Jared the contest in Brisbane has direct involvement from Cassidy, In The Gap Ward, eighteen-year Liberal/LNP political parties, and the party contest for control veteran Geraldine Knapp has been replaced by Steven of Brisbane City Council has been a continuing Toomey. Both Cassidy and Toomey will face their first theme in Queensland political history. The Council’s elections as councillors in 2016. Four councillors are administration and budget is controlled by the not re-contesting. Having represented areas covered popularly elected Lord Mayor. The Council executive is by ultra-safe Pullenvale ward for the LNP since 1997, composed of the Lord Mayor and the councillors who Margaret de Wit will be retiring at the 2016 election. chair the six major council committees. The executive Three long serving Labor councillors are retiring, Helen operates like a Cabinet, and in another similarity with Abrahams in The Gabba, Kim Flesser in Northgate, and parliamentary systems, the Council recognises the current Labor opposition leader Milton Dick, whose safe position of Opposition Leader. Labor ward of Richlands has been abolished, though "Four years have passed since the 2012 victory and the new Forest Lake ward is a notional Labor ward. much has happened in state and federal politics. After two terms on council, Dick has been chosen by Graham Quirk has outlasted three Prime Ministers Labor to contest the local seat of Oxley at this year's as well as the political highs and lows of Campbell federal election. Given that sitting councillors have Newman’s premiership. Despite his massive state significant personal following, all six of the above victory in 2012, Newman lost his seat at the January wards are likely to have their results influenced by the 2015 state election as the LNP’s massive majority departure of sitting members.” was wiped out. When Graham Quirk was elected Lord Mayor in 2012, no one would have foreseen that Annastacia Palaszczuk would be Labor Premier of Queensland in 2016. With Queensland governed by 12. LNP & Others LABOR
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The Pendulum following the 2012 BCC election showed what a difficult and large task lay ahead of the Labor team in 2016. What made this monumental task seem smaller than it actually was where recent volatile results at the federal and state elections where massive and unusual swings in individual seats gave the false impression that contested elections normally feature huge swings. That is not the reality in most tightly fought contests. Unless there is a significant mood for change, most incumbent governments do not suffer very large swings and in 2016 some people temporarily lost sight of that political reality. 13. If anything, recent political instability across Queensland an ex-LNP independent holds one. If the LNP loses six and Australia has shifted the advantage towards steady seats, they will lose their majority and Labor will hold and predictable government. Unless there is an obvious half of the wards. The first six wards on the pendulum scandal, few voters will be clamouring for change. are in two clusters.” Remarkably, despite historical difficulties in passing referendums, the referendum on 4-year terms passed "In the inner north-west of Brisbane, the LNP holds easily and was not torpedoed by an anti-politician the wards of Central, Enoggera and Paddington. There have been huge cumulative swings to the LNP in two sentiment but propelled forward by a desire for more longer-term stability. of these wards over the last two elections; 24.7% in Enoggera and 17% in Central. Enoggera overlaps with However, in early March 2016, the stability of the State Campbell Newman’s former seat of Ashgrove, which Labor government was put at risk with the resignation saw a big swing to the LNP in 2012 (shortly before the of a Member of Parliament from the ALP. The council election), and a big swing back in 2015. The LNP simultaneous brawl in the Australian Senate in the first also gained Brisbane Central at the 2012 state election few months of 2016 was not seen as a power grab by and lost it in 2015. Enoggera was won by the Liberal the Coalition Government and the Greens but rather as Party in 2008, and the LNP then won Central in 2012. another example of a dysfunctional federal Parliament Paddington covers an area that has traditionally been that wasn’t putting in place the long term plans for the the Liberal ward of Toowong, but was redrawn In 2008 future. in a way that would have made the ward more Labor friendly in past years. All three of these inner north There are systemic disadvantages for Labor built into west wards require large swings to change hands, but BCC resources and processes such as access to audit we have seen swings of that magnitude at the last two information and scrutiny of cabinet decisions. It might elections.” be worth having a 'root and branch' review of the Local Government Act to level the playing field and introduce "The other three key wards are in the south-east, more accountability of the BCC and other councils. including Coorparoo, Holland Park and Doboy. Doboy is the only LNP ward on a genuinely slim margin, with the Although some Labor Councillors had done some LNP defending a 1.8% margin.” significant policy development work prior to the election year, more needs to be done in future to "Doboy has swung a lot less than other Brisbane wards, highlight and campaign around key policy issues prior but could still easily flip back to Labor. Coorparoo is a to the formal campaign period, especially if we expect new ward, taking in large parts of Holland Park. If the to effectively criticise lacklustre decisions of LNP swings of 2008 and 2012 were reversed, the LNP's incumbents and convince voters of a need for change. 13.6% margin could be overturned. Holland Park has shifted south, taking large parts of Wishart. Holland Our Lord Mayoral candidate did extremely well in Park’s 10% margin compares to swings of 8% to the limited time. The fact that Rod had so little political LNP in both 2008 and 2012.” experience as a candidate yet launched from zero existing profile to a serious contender in such a short time spoke volumes about his ability and work ethic.
One review submission wrote "Although we lost I saw a lot of positive efforts and lessons learnt and Labor should be proud of the mayoral campaign in particular. We now have a solid base of knowledge, experienced people and resources for the next campaign and should maintain it.”
Ben Rau wrote in his blog The Tally Room of the large swings in two clusters of wards that would be required to bring about a change in the BCC majority.
“The Liberal National Party currently holds eighteen wards on Brisbane City Council, Labor holds seven and 14. The following table (via an Antony Green post-2015 distribution blog post) demonstrates the enormous task that was ahead in the 2016 BCC election.
2015 Brisbane City Council Electoral Pendulum (following redistributions)
LNP Wards (18) Labor Wards (7) Ward Pct Ward Pct Doboy 3.5 Northgate 0.4 Holland Park 8.8 Wynnum Manly 0.7 Central 9.4 Deagon 5.2 Paddington 11.8 Forest Lake 5.3 Coorparoo 12.1 Morningside 6.0 Enoggera 14.2 The Gabba 8.3 Runcorn 16.3 Moorooka 10.7 Marchant Calamvale Independent Wards (1) The Gap Ward Pct Jamboree Tennyson (v LNP) 5.8 Bracken Ridge McDowall 23.5 Walter Taylor (20.9% v GRN) 23.7 Hamilton 24.8 Macgregor 25.1 Chandler 26.8 Posted by Antony Green on December 14, 2015 at 05:31 PM in Brisbane City Council I Permalink Pullenvale (31.0% v GRN) 32.7
15. The core Labor message and central themes
Labor’s campaign message for the March 19 BCC Some candidates utilised this advice well and some election was that the people of Brisbane face a didn’t need it as they had already set up and were clear choice between a Mayor with no record of running local issue-based campaigns, and in some achievement, who doesn’t have a vision of the city; cases candidates were already running community and Rod Harding who has an integrated traffic and campaigns prior to preselection. transport plan to tackle congestion, is ready to properly Recommendations manage growth and the new energy it takes to deliver for the city. 2.1 The experience of key personnel in the 2016 BCC campaign should be utilised as soon as practical The message about Rod Harding was he doesn’t come to start the policy development, party debate and from the usual political background, and that’s a good community consultations for the next BCC campaign. thing. He’s a lawyer, he’s run his own small business and was a senior executive in Australia’s largest investment 2.2 LNP promises should be monitored and campaign bank. This experience has taught Rod what it takes to plans put in place now for BCC councillors and MFCs to get results. He’s never been afraid to get in there, roll gather the information required to hold the Mayor and up his sleeves and get the job done. The same will BCC to account. apply as Lord Mayor, whether it’s fixing a pensioner’s footpath, working to bring more business and jobs to Brisbane or making sure that we’re making progress on congestion and public transport.
Rod’s integrated traffic and transport plan would tackle Brisbane’s worsening congestion by fixing local hotspots, and by increasing public transport patronage with new and better bus services and his visionary light rail. Rod's Seven Point Planning Guarantee would restore confidence in the development process and manage Brisbane’s growth in a sustainable way. All this whilst the Lord Mayor offered nothing to ease congestion but a fraudulent Metro.
Both traffic congestion and planning/development served as two issues which drove policy development and campaign tactics. For example. Bad Development forums were held in various wards in 2015 and were used to raise Rod Harding’s profile and get local campaigns off the ground. These themes also served to provide some guidance around local campaigning and voter contact activities such as letter box drops, doorknocking, phone calls, public meetings and then media.
Examples were provided for candidates of the type of local campaigns they could run and how to work with their organisers and the state party office to conduct campaign activities around different local issues.
16. Preselection process
Through a series of campaign briefings and the "Labor lost The Gabba Ward (9.76%) and Northgate employment of full-time organisers to look after Ward (0.36%) when Helen Abrahams and Kim Flesser different wards, head office ensured candidates were retired. In 2012, Labor lost Central Ward (0.3%) and better-prepared for this campaign than many previous Karawatha (1.5%) when David Hinchliffe and Gail BCC campaigns. Macpherson chose to retire in these marginal seats. In 2008, Labor lost Enoggera Ward (9.5%) and Acacia As they were preselected, candidates were provided Ridge Ward (3.8%) with the retirement of Anne with a free starter pack and useful information to Bennsion and Kevin Bianchi in marginal seats. (* Note enable them to 'hit the ground running'. in the 2008 election, Acacia Ridge was replaced by Many submissions to the review suggested it would be Parkinson Ward in the redistribution, however the bulk better to get preselections out of the way even earlier of the area was the same constituency).’’ in future. One submission wrote “With the eight-year “In all circumstances, the retiring Labor Councillors cycle to re-distributions there needs to be two distinct failed to undertake any kind of succession planning. processes. For the next term we could probably get They also remained in Council until the completion away with not having candidates endorsed until 2018. of the term, rather than taking the opportunity to For the following term, with a redistribution to take retire 12 months before the election to allow for place, that process will need to have the likelihood their replacements to establish themselves in their of changed boundaries in mind so that candidates communities. Due to the acknowledged “power of may have to cope with those changes. To leave it incumbency" factor at local government level, I believe open until after the entire redistribution would create this failure to successful succession plan is they key the situation we had this time around where late factor in the loss of these seats. I also believe Labor endorsement meant candidates had too little time to would have retained most, if not all, of these seats if get officially into the field. There is a need to have a these transitions been more appropriately managed." Ward spokesperson in place even if they do not have any intention of seeking candidacy.” “There are two circumstances of Labor held wards being retained where retiring Councillors completed One Councillor repeated the truism of all campaigns the four-year term, however on both occasions the “You always run out of time and money, so at least if we margins within these wards were severely diminished. preselect earlier we’ll have more time!" Morningside Ward in 2004 (Margin at retirement Several submissions mentioned sentiments like this one was 15%, reduced to 4%) and Richlands Ward in 2016 "there should not be preselections for candidates in the (Margin at retirement was 17.7%, reduced to 5.31%)”. final six weeks of the campaign. It is far too late. They In two circumstances where retiring Councillors left should be talking to voters around a year before the Council within the twelve months before the election election date, or at a bare minimum six months.” to allow a new Councillor to establish themselves, Several submissions focussed in on the suggestion the results indicate the reduced swings against the that succession plans needed to be refined to take new Councillor which undoubtedly played a role in advantage of incumbency in the election cycle for retaining these wards. For example, in Moorooka Ward newer councillors. Mark Bailey retired in 2003, and was replaced with Steve Griffiths (6.6%) who won the subsequent 2004 One wrote “Councillors, factions and the party generally election. In Deagon Ward the incumbent Councillor has failed appallingly at succession planning for Council Victoria Newton retired in 2015 (5.61%), to be replaced wards and this has led to our diminished numbers in with Jared Cassidy (3.75%) who also went on to retain BCC over a sustained period.” the seat.
It was explained in one submission how the loss of It is important to note, this is not just about retaining The Gabba Ward and Northgate Ward was probably wards, it is also about ensuring future leaders, talented predictable in 2016, given similar losses in the past key contributors and strategic campaigners are pre where incumbents had not retired earlier. selected for the wards where retirements are occurring. 17. The future of Labor in City Hall depends on senior The earlier selection of candidates in some non-held members of the party ensuring talented people can be wards would have assisted with the engagement of recruited into Council to rebuild the team for the future. the Lord Mayoral candidate in campaign activities in these wards. The redistribution did impact on the earlier One observer lamented regarding proper succession completion of the party’s pre-selection processes in planning “no Labor Councillor or faction has played a some wards and. without local candidates in the field positive role in this way for at least a decade.” This is for him to work with, may have contributed to a lower disputable, but it is indicative of the frustration felt my Lord Mayoral vote. many party members about this issue. In contrast the preselection of Labor’s mayoral Another submission wrote “Our ward results candidate received widespread endorsement and demonstrated the need for proactive succession praise. planning! A good example is Deagon Ward where Cr Victoria Newton handed over to Cr Jared Cassidy 6 One contributor wrote “Labor’s Lord Mayor Candidate months out before the election. This gives the incoming Rod Harding is a highly qualified, dedicated and driven councillor an opportunity to write a letter, visit events person, Rod was the perfect candidate for Lord Mayor in an official capacity and call every organisation as the of Brisbane, His profile increased quite significantly “Councillor” for the ward. As for Northgate and The towards the last 2 months of the campaign. He Gabba if they had followed a similar succession plan achieved popularity in independent polling, which it may have resulted in a different outcome. Although unfortunately didn’t convert into actual votes.” this is speculative in nature, any amount of time as an Recommendations incumbent ingrains you in the community giving you further opportunity to capitalise on a swing towards the 3.1 The Party should conduct preselections between 18 ALP, which didn’t happen in Northgate and The Gabba,” and 12 months prior to elections as a matter of course unless there are exceptional circumstances. One campaign stated its concern regarding gender balance in the preselection process, both during 3.2 Plans should be put in place to attempt to provide selection panel interviews and in the number of women future BCC candidates and their teams the same high finally pre-selected as candidates. They also expressed levels of professional support and training they received concern that the campaign reviewer was male. in 2015. One Councillor advised “Potential candidates should be in the field as soon as possible irrespective on elections in other tiers of government. They should come from existing community groups or become active within a number of high profile groups at least 18 months out from the election.”
With the benefit of hindsight, it was suggested Labor allowed the redistribution process to interfere with and delay some candidate preselections. Some candidates were ready to start earlier than when their preselections took place. Some candidates have indicated they would be happy being preselected 18 months before the election date. This would give them an opportunity to develop campaign teams and capacity much earlier and personally meet many more constituents. Earlier preselections could also allow more competitive preselections and better vetting of candidates.
18. Campaign structure and MECs
By all accounts the central Campaign Strategy Team “Sharon Humphreys should also be commended for her was comprised of a good mix of seasoned and methodical and strategic co-ordination role she played experienced hands. One review contribution wrote: across a wide range of areas including: - working with “The biggest challenge with such groups is often organisers and candidates on local campaigns, ensuring balancing size and numbers with the need to keep policy development, local election commitments and deliberations and meetings focussed, constructive and commitment costings were being appropriately tracked relatively short. Most importantly, decisions need to and progressed in a timely manner, and recording be made efficiently in order to focus limited time and the key decisions of strategy and working groups to resources on campaign outcomes." ensure they were actioned. Without her, the campaign may have experienced more fragmentation and Many contributions praised the unusually high focus communication issues.” of party office and specific campaign systems on this BCC campaign. Someone wrote “Queensland Branch Constructive advice was given regarding the need Party Office devoted a lot of time and energy to assist to explain the strategy and relationship between the with the 2016 BCC campaign and that should be various demands of campaigning. It was clear from the commended.” experienced submissions and corporate knowledge contained in them that the party would benefit from The Party Secretary and Campaign Director Evan a more regular review and discussion around the Moorhead, and Deputy Campaign Director Jon Persley “coordination between the mayoral campaign strategy were regularly singled out for praise and thanks in and ward campaigns”. numerous submissions. One reviewer wrote "There needs to be more clarity Campaign Coordinator Sharon Humphreys was seen around the space between the mayoral campaign by many to play a critical role in the party office for and local ward campaigns. There should be an this campaign and also repeatedly acknowledged and understanding of the priority of the mayoral campaign thanked in numerous submissions. and how ward campaigns should be leveraging off it One submission wrote a typical acknowledgement: and supporting it. Because incumbent Councillors are "Many others deserve thanks for their efforts in this hard to beat, unless there is a landslide we're more likely year’s campaign. The result didn’t reflect how much to elect a Labor Mayor before we get a majority of the support from party office had improved. Evan wards.” did a great job in raising the profile and importance In discussing the balance between the ward and of the BCC effort this year and his staff and Sharon mayoral campaigns, one submission stressed: "Finally, Humphreys also deserve recognition for playing a credit must go to Labor Lord Mayoral Candidate Rod central role.” Harding. Without his work ethic, message discipline Another experienced campaigner wrote: “The 2016 and leadership, we would not have achieved the swing campaign was the most disciplined campaign I have in the Lord Mayoral vote that we did.” ■ ever been involved with.” Several submissions hoped for some continuing One wrote "Evan is the most consultative Party investment in central coordination and policy Secretary I have ever worked with”. development support. One wrote "Party Office require expending some ongoing organisation and co Another said “In my view, the 2016 Council Campaign ordination, for keeping the MECs alive. MECs could help received the best support from ALP headquarters I store and retain important local campaign intelligence have ever experienced. It stands in stark contrast to and knowledge between BCC elections.” past campaigns. Evan Morehead as State Secretary should be commended for his clear and calm Several submissions suggested ongoing MECs might be leadership of the campaign and of the strategy group able to address the severe limitation of BCC Councillors’ generally.” resources in comparison to the Mayor's office.
19. One wrote “MECs were let go after 2012 but we should As part of the MEC and ongoing local government have kept them going and built up some practical policy-development process, consideration might be exercises and efforts and at least quarterly meetings. given to conducting city-wide “mini-campaigns” around Even outside of BCC they should be a vehicle for one or two key local government issues, particularly identifying local heroes to run as Labor candidates in years where there are no federal, state or local so that Labor voters know who to support, otherwise government campaigns scheduled. we’re training voters to vote independent instead of voting for our party, its values and candidates that Recommendations support those values." 4.1 The Party Rules should require MECs to meet One submission wrote “Candidate selection will need regularly and where they are defunct they should be to be rigorous to ensure we don’t have our own Ashley actively resuscitated and supported by local state and Higgins moment, always a possibility these days,” federal representative and other party units. referring to a Liberal National Party council candidate 4.2 The Party should organise and conduct an who had been forced out of the party and withdrawn annual conference or seminar which focuses on the from the election race amid allegations he sent explicit importance and value of local government and allows images to a teenage boy in 2011. best practice in local government and grassroots campaigning to be shared and promoted within the Some submissions thanked Party Office for the additional resources they were provided in 2015 party. This could potentially become a national event hosted by the Queensland Branch and a national but also asked why it wasn’t a regular occurrence: network of local government campaign skills and "Local government is undervalued by too many party expertise that could be utilised in future BCC election members and although party office did commit more campaigns. resources this year there still needs to be a cultural shift in the party towards taking local government more seriously and professionally."
ft.. Campaign planning, training and capacity building Although the campaign did receive unprecedented One candidate wrote “Sharing knowledge and resources there were clearly some timing challenges. resources between campaigns is of upmost importance. One submission mentioned “The Campaign Party office provided campaigns with an abundance of Coordinator position (filled by Sharon Humphreys) standardised material at the beginning and throughout made a huge difference to the coordination and follow- the campaign. The weekly conference calling and through but she was appointed in September, when the Tuesday afternoon phone briefings by Party Office Lord Mayoral campaign began in March.” and Rod Harding was an excellent use of technology and time. It ensured everyone was receiving the same One observer said “There weren’t many mistakes in the information through multiple channels, so nothing was campaign, in fact there were some great investments missed.” Another candidate wrote "The party did well in in people and training which are now assisting with the resourcing the BCC campaign this year but their needs federal campaign and have built the party’s campaign to be an ongoing and early support for campaigning on capacity across the board and will continue to act as issues that will help us win wards and win the mayoralty building blocks in the future." in future.”
Qne experienced campaigner wrote "We should always One campaigner wrote “One aspect of the campaign recommend more local campaigning”, but admitted system that needs tweaking is the formal clearance “there was not a lot I would do differently to what we process. There were a few instances of candidates did in 2016.” making statements without proper clearance. Although The call centre which was set up early in the campaign they were not significant commitments it could and used by candidates and organisers and volunteers become a bigger problem in the future." was highly regarded. There was plenty of support from staff and excellent training provided to candidates and volunteers. This continues to be a very effective resource for the federal election campaign by organisers, candidates and volunteers.
The Queensland Branch has amongst its ranks a large number of successful local campaigners and many examples of good outcomes in local government campaigns, such as the great result this year for the Labor team in Townsville. At least once a year Queensland could initiate a Labor Local Government seminar or webinar during which experienced local councillors and experts in media, grassroots campaign techniques and fundraising could share ideas and best practice between Labor teams. This could potentially become a regular national forum in which Queensland is seen to be taking the lead.
The ward allocation listed below was amended as one organiser subsequently became a candidate, however it shows the logical allocation of wards based on regional association. This distribution of organisers’ focus seemed to work well and should be repeated.
21. Some organisers noted that candidates came to the offered campaign central training during non-campaign campaign with vastly different levels of experience periods. I also think branch members should be and skills. It would have been desirable to give them all able to apply to do training if they are interested in more training and practice in relevant campaigning and campaigning.
One candidate wrote "I would like to see MEC delegates
T
22. Policy development Following a disappointing result in 2012, local One participant wrote “From a policy staffer's Councillors focussed on representing local perspective this was one of the better resourced constituencies rather than planning policies for the policy-development efforts since 2000. In future the 2016 election. This meant policy development had to whole caucus may need more policy development be fast tracked by the Qld Branch Party Office and support between elections. In the last term three central campaign team and processes put in place to councillors (Milton Dick, Shayne Sutton and Helen co-ordinate this work with some caucus members. A Abrahams) carried much of the policy effort and Policy Working Group was established which included deserve recognition but a whole lot of policy and four sitting Councillors - two of whom were retiring. Cr announcements were centrally developed by the Shayne Sutton proved invaluable in the development "Strategy Group” in the lead up to and during the of policy and as a reference source given her corporate campaign.” memory. Although policy development was more thorough A separate Transport Policy Working Group was than in past campaigns, it was agreed it should have established to oversee the development of public been done much earlier. One adviser wrote "from a transport and transport infrastructure policies. This media and messaging perspective there had not been group co-opted outside advisors to assist with the enough policy development work done prior to the development of specific transport related policy. Policy mayoral candidate launch and this posed some serious development and research proved time consuming and challenges.” additional staff had to be employed by the party to There was also a lack of material and information assist with writing policy documents and costings. retained from previous campaigns “The lack of previous One submission explained "we also had to undertake campaign reviews or information documents about testing of some key central policies and consultation prior policies and opportunities made the mayoral with key external parties in a very short time frame. candidate's job much more difficult than it needed to The central team in effect had to condense four years be. For a start it made articulating a clear simple vision of policy development and consultation into a six- for Brisbane more challenging.” month period". This resulted in key campaign staff and There should be more liaison with the Queensland resources being tied up in policy development which Government to review the legislation governing should have been tested and completed by Councillors Brisbane City Council. Amendments to the Act to who were familiar with their shadow portfolios, who ensure that there is greater transparency around could have used Questions on Notice to gather key Council activities so the Labor Opposition is not kept in information for central policy development and who the dark on budget and contract details. Who does the could have assisted with providing third party support Audits on the BCC? Is there an equivalent of the State for Labor’s policies. It has been argued by some that Auditor-General across the BCC or Local Government the beginning of Labor's campaign launch would have in general? benefited from a stronger policy platform and vision in key policy areas. There is an alternate and significant Changes made to the City of Brisbane Act (COBA) view that few voters are engaged in policy debate or by the Bligh Labor State Government in 2010 resulted paying enough attention so far out from election day. in a reduced accountability to then LNP Lord Mayor Finding the balance between these competing views Campbell Newman. Among the key changes adopted is one of the many challenges of managing party and was the granting of “Cabinet Confidentiality" akin to community expectations during campaigns. that of State and Federal Governments, This makes the Brisbane City Council the most secretive Council in One of the innovative systems put in place early in the Australia. As a result, the previous ability of the Labor campaign was a “Strategy Group" which met each Opposition, and Independent Councillors, to obtain Sunday prior to the campaign to refine and develop any information that has been subject to a discussion policy announcements for the campaign period. in Civic Cabinet has been removed. As a consequence,
23. Councillors on BCC are unable to access information This scenario creates a situation whereby most often, that would otherwise be accessible to Councillors on the LoO and his staff only have capacity to respond to any other Council in Australia. the issue (s) of the day or items coming to the Council meeting for debate in any given week, regardless of It is worth noting that at the same time the State whether these receive media attention. Labor Government amended COBA to establish this Cabinet Confidentiality, requests from Labor Councillors Furthermore, there is no budget for the LoO’s regarding minimum opposition resourcing to ensure office, meaning any money spent on stakeholder balance and safeguard a robust democracy were communications, RTI, or independent advice are unfortunately ignored. funded from the LoO’s Ward Office budget - effectively taking away local resources from the Ward Office. Key Stakeholder engagement and policy development skills among Labor Councillors needs to be developed This compares with a $2.6million total office budget for and key performance indicators should be tracked by running the Lord Mayor’s office (staff inclusive) Party Office. When there are only seven people in the Some new candidates desired more opportunities to team, this puts a heavy burden on a very small number have input into the policy development process. One of shoulders. The bulk of the 2016 election policies solution may be found through the Party’s annual were developed within the last six months of the policy development processes. Unlike at State or campaign and campaign time and resourcing had to be Federal levels, the Labor Party does not have a policy dedicated to this process. This was time lost for voter platform for local government issues - meaning there engagement. Capacity within the ALP team has been is no guiding document to set out our values and diminished even further with the loss of two wards and objectives. The establishment of a Local Conference the retirement of several key contributors. (like State cr Federal conferences) to gain input from With regard to communications, other than verbal rank and file members will be a crucial step to ensure reports to local branch meetings, there was no centrally buy-in from our hard-working volunteers. The lack co-ordinated communication to Brisbane based branch of policy discussion and involvement resulted in our members although Opposition Leader Milton Dick has a local campaign being unable to articulate a clear and large network within the ALP and attended many party detailed message to voters about what Labor stood for functions to verbally brief members. and how we could deliver in Council.
It was mentioned that the Labor’s BCC costings were The eventual policy agenda could readily be described good, and perhaps there was a missed opportunity by as very progressive, Announcements around stopping holding these back and not focussing on them more bad development, free public transport on Fridays in the final weeks, given the sizeable debt which Quirk and an inner city light-rail line matched community had amassed. expectations about Labor priorities but in retrospect may have appeared to be too focussed on the inner When making comments about Labor’s performance city. Although the development of public transport and from 2012 - 2016 it is important to understand the better access to the CBD is good for all of Brisbane constraints in which the Council Opposition operates. more needs to be said about the suburbs in future and In particular, chronic under-resourcing: The Leader there are already some good proposals from some of the Opposition (LoO) in Brisbane City Council is candidates to broaden the policy focus in 2020. provided with only one mid-range staff member, usually a media adviser. There is no "Opposition Office". There There is certainly a need for the party to have a more is the LoO and one staff member. regular local government policy focus and facility for ongoing policy development. This could be part This compares to Council Chairmen who have between of existing systems or a separate event and process 1 and 3 political staff each (Budgets range between to annual conference and MECs. Although there is a $205,000 - $225,000 per office). They are also normal practice of "wiping the slate clean" between provided with administration support and support from mayoral campaigns it would be wiser to implement are their respective departments. In addition, the Lord longer strategy for 2020, Mayor's office has a $2,25million staff budget (2015/16 Budget)
24. Lessons from the recent long-term strategy of policy issues, BCC caucus meeting regularly with party development undertaken by Bill Shorten and his team officials to ensure input into political strategy and policy at the federal level could be applied for the BCC. The positions and better coordination between state and next year could be focussed on party campaign local caucus issues, BCC opposition leader reporting capacity building and recruiting volunteers, MECs and on a quarterly basis to Administrative Committee on local campaigners around important policy issues. Year progress of party development work by Councillors 2 could be focussed on community engagement and in non-held wards eg attendance at branch meetings, policy development with stakeholders and residential e-newsletter reporting on key local issues and groups. Work could be done identifying and recruiting campaigns/BCC Labor petitions etc. potential candidates with community experience. The Labor Team in City Hall must be vocal on issues in Year 3 could be focussed on preselections and public communities outside the 5 seats they have retained. engagement, effectively acting as a springboard into The Labor Team in City Hall must work hard to engage the final year of campaigning. with key stakeholders in their portfolio areas to There is a strong desire and need for local input into ensure the ALP has a positive relationship with them policy development and more information prior to and they can work collaboratively to inform future and following policy announcements, This could be policy development. Labor will need Councillors or addressed through ongoing MEC quarterly meetings candidates to monitor LNP activity. The LNP will make and local government focussed policy events at mistakes that the community will want to know about state conference and other annual or more regular e.g. LNP donor land sales. party gatherings. The ALP Head Office should Establishing a strong and ongoing relationship between adopt a structured system to ensure party members party office and the ALP BCC caucus could assist interested in Council issues are able to have continuous the caucus in its community outreach work as well as engagement with the Caucus and the community, staying on track with ongoing community engagement, A system of Council Champions or some kind of campaign goals and objectives and long term strategic Municipal Action Group should be established to assist objectives. in marginal wards Labor needs to win back and to assist with policy development. It will be important to keep track of all LNP promises in 2016 and use the lack of progress to highlight their In addition to a structured system, key party leaders dysfunction and time for a change in 2020. Key with an interest in Council should be asked to play responsibilities for such a data base has to be tasked an informal role in supporting the caucus and assist to councillors and monitored by the Leader of the them engage with stakeholder engagement. Former Opposition and party officials. Councillors may be good people to start with. This support, while informal, might benefit from being at Recommendations least semi-structured at least from the outset. 6.1 A BCC policy development strategy should be With only five Councillors and one staff member discussed and implemented by the end of 2016 allocated to opposition the Party has to provide a level of support for policy development and a level of 6.2 A BCC Strategy Group should be set up and start accountability for sitting Councillors to consult with meeting at least two years prior to the next election. party members and key community, business and 6.3 The BCC Strategy group should liaise with MECs industry groups. This could range from a formal BCC and Councillors to coordinate policy development prior Policy Working Group reporting to the Party's central to the next election. policy committee and State Conference, Brisbane based Regional Conferences incorporating a local 6.4 To address some of the systemic disadvantages government component that would feed into the of oppositions in BCC administration, it might be BCC Policy Working Group and the Minister for Local worth having a 'root and branch’ review of the Local Government, in wards where there are no sitting Labor Government Act. Councillors but sitting Labor State/Federal members, facilitating joint MEC/SEC and or EEC meetings to ensure sitting MPs engage with MECs and local BCC
25. Public opinion polls and the Ward battlegrounds Prior to the election the ABC published the following March and published in the Sunday Mail on 13 March “Where the Council Election will be decided” which had Graham Quirk leading Labor's Rod Harding 52-48 summarised the public sentiment as well as the after preferences. The first preference results were LNP majority view within the party well: "After going . 42.6%, Labor 29,4%, Greens 10.8% and 13.6% undecided backward for two elections, you would expect that before further questioning on where voters were Labor will increase its vote at the 2016 election. This is leaning.” especially the case given how close the 2012 elections In one of the submissions to the review it was stated “If were to Labor’s wipe-out at that year’s state election. polling is research, then we need to sack the pollsters." Labor’s first task will be to retain its own marginal seats. On the northside Labor will be disadvantaged Another submission stated: “I don't recall at any time in by the retirement of sitting councillor Kim Flesser in the preceding 4 years any attempt from Party Office to Northgate (ALP 0.4%), while in Brisbane's east Labor's engage with the broader membership on BCC issues.” Peter Cumming should have fewer problems retaining In hindsight there was a consensus that more work was Wynnum Manly (ALP 0.7%) than in 2012. Departures needed to tap into the knowledge and skills about local also mean Labor will have to watch out for Deagon government issues from the broader membership and (ALP 5.2%) where recently appointed councillor Jared motivate more of them to get more directly involved Cassidy faces his first election. Labor will have to win with future local government campaigns. the new Forest Lake (ALP 5.3%) ward without the presence of departing Milton Dick, while prospects for One submission wrote: “I know polling is important in the Greens may be boosted in The Gabba (ALP 8.3%) hindsight I wonder if we were too dependent on it?” with the retirement of Helen Abrahams.” Several campaigns mentioned the mentoring and moral “Then it is a battle for the LNP marginals. Doboy (LNP support they received from local state and federal 3,5%) and Central (LNP 8.3%) were both LNP gains in representatives. This helped in many ways but most 2012 and would be vulnerable to any swing back to obviously in raising the candidate’s profiles during Labor. The re-drawn Holland Park (LNP 8.8%) and new public events and meetings and also helping ensure Coorparoo (LNP 12.1%) wards will be battlegrounds, as their limited time was used efficiently. will Paddington (LNP 11.8%) which covers an area that One very experienced campaigner explained the Labor tends to dominate at state elections. Some of disparity between the public polling and the final result the areas lost by Labor in 2008 and 2012 now appear as "we confused voter interest with voter commitment. to be very safe for the LNP. Labor clearly engaged Our support was soft but we wanted to believe in in 'sandbagging' wards in 2012, concentrating on the headline figures. I have no doubt for the first defendable wards and resulting in enormous swings time in many years people were interested in Labor’s elsewhere. The wards in this category being defended campaign. It was more organised and professional by the LNP in 2016 are Enogerra (14.2%), Marchant than any BCC campaign we have run for more than a (LNP 16.5%), Calamvale (LNP 18.1%), Runcorn (18.2%) decade. But they were far from committed to us and and Jamboree (LNP 21.1%).” we failed to get that commitment. Sadly, we also lost “A Galaxy poll of Lord Mayoral voting intentions two Labor wards and the result was dramatically worse was published in the Courier-Mail two weeks before than predicted. We forgot that governments also have polling and reported Graham Quirk ahead but with to lose elections and oppositions rarely win them on a substantially reduced majority compared to 2012. their own.” The poll had the LNP on 50%, Labor 38%, the Greens There have been several news reports of inaccurate 9% and others 3%. This translated into a two-party internal party polling and the use of ReachTel polling to preferred of LNP 53% Labor 47%, down 15% on 2012. gauge support at the ward level deserves consideration A ReachTEL poll of 1116 respondents conducted on 10 and review. On 13 March a ReachTel survey of 418 26. residents across The Gabba Ward indicated that the inability of research to predict a close result. This Labor’s candidate Nicole Lessio had the highest first dilemma is unlikely to be resolved by more regular preference vote of the four leading candidates and also research or larger surveys with smaller margins of indicated that three quarters of voters had made up error. Instead the best strategy is to campaign more their minds and “definitely decided” who they would intensely and with closer direct ties to the community. vote for. The wisdom of hindsight would now conclude Ultimately the best feedback loop is one the candidate that this vote was either very soft or very volatile or or representative builds themselves through personal shifted significantly over the subsequent week of the ties to the community that live, work and choose to campaign. represent.
Similarly, in Northgate Ward a ReachTel survey of 711 Recommendations residents conducted in late February indicated Labor 7.1 A closer review of the research conducted in several and the LNP neck and neck on a 41% primary, with a recent interstate and Old local, state and federal 17% Green primary of which Labor would likely receive campaigns should be made. Recommendations much higher preferences than the LNP, On election day about methodology, accuracy and strategy of past in the Ward there was a significant drop both in Green and current research should be provided to assist in Party votes and preferences and the LNP surged ahead. designing the research plan for the next BCC campaign Experienced campaigners will explain that research to ensure best practices are considered and utilised is both expensive and unreliable and at some point were they can be afforded. the Campaign Director must make a final call on the 7.2 All the research used during BCC campaigns should allocation of scarce resources based on a mixture of be stored in a secure archive for future reference and research and experience as well as local knowledge. use by future campaign directors. One important and indisputable lesson from 2016 is Media coverage, advertising and earned media
One of the most difficult aspects of opposition experienced team. There is also a quote by the Deputy campaigning in Brisbane City Council is the significant Mayor Cr Schinner about the ‘solid two-year campaign media and communications advantage the LNP enjoy developing and releasing policy’ that Campbell through the Office of the Lord Mayor. Newman ran in 2004. That was the election that the LNP knocked off the sitting Labor Mayor Tim Quinn. Graham Quirk has had for years, unfiltered access to broadcast his message both through Brisbane media From all indications, despite being outspent on TV and as well as through publications that the BCC itself radio and print, the central advertising campaign did produces and distributes on a regular basis. well in maintaining Labor’s message throughout the campaign. As one experienced campaigner said "Evan One example is the 'good news’ that the administration did a good job on advertising with limited funds. We regularly spruiks through its monthly-city wide certainly punched above our weight.” newsletter (which goes out each and every month to every household and business across Brisbane at great One aspect of the advertising that could be refined is expense) and which was paid for by the BCC during the the reliance on 15 second ads on TV, which do not work election period. well in isolation. They can be effective in backing up a 30 second ad message though but there needs to be Such a publication would probably not be allowed in space between positive and negative messaging. other states or cities during election periods but it was considered appropriate under the Council guidelines at One submission highlighted the fact that “we received the time. It always has a big picture of the Lord Mayor very good media coverage, in fact no Labor team and “A message from Lord Mayor Graham Quirk” on at any contest has been as favourably portrayed in the front page. Such a newsletter (usually 8-10 pages of Brisbane media since 2007.” good news stories about what Council is doing) is hard An indication of the huge media workload undertaken to compete with during a campaign. and delivered during the campaign is reflected in one To exacerbate this advantage going into the election submission “A second media person was drastically year, there was also coverage in late 2015 of “Brisbane needed but only employed for the final four weeks.” council Labor retirements slash 59 years from its That same submission continued: "But the campaign corporate memory”. Experienced Labor campaigners really took off in the final eight weeks, we needed more were retiring and although this presented opportunities of a focussed media message and plan for the final for younger and more energetic media engagement week. We seemed to lose momentum in the last week. it also represented a loss of personal connections and More key media announcements in the last few days corporate knowledge in the nuances and predilections may have helped, instead we spent a lot of effort doing of journalists and media professionals across the small events in too many wards that didn't get much Brisbane media landscape. media coverage.” ■ The article explained “With the departures of Labor One submission wrote about the media coverage councillors Kim Flesser (Northgate), Victoria Newton "Rod appeared very energetic and always had plenty (Deagon), Milton Dick (Richlands) and Helen Abrahams of bright young enthusiastic supporters around him. (The Gabba), Labor will lose 59 years of council It’s hard to imagine how this is interpreted by the corporate memory. Labor’s remaining three councillors electorate in comparison to an older, more boring, - Shayne Sutton (Morningside), Steve Griffiths less exciting opponent? Perhaps there is something (Moorooka) and Peter Cumming (Wynnum Manly) - in Quirk that showed he was boring but predictable. would have a combined 46 years of service at the time In an electoral environment and mood that is looking of March 19 election.” for stability and is risk averse this might be a plus? This article demonstrates that it was difficult for We don’t know if Rod had been seen with more suits Labor to compete with the LNP message of a strong, and serious older people around him would that have 28. conveyed a stronger impression about his business and Media support was relatively under resourced and leadership skills?” additional support needed to be provided for at least the last six months. Opportunities for improvement in “The LNP's capitalised on a simple message around the media strategy and outcomes include providing community safety and claiming 'nothing is wrong' and the Lord Mayoral campaign a dedicated media advisor their underhanded negative campaigning (as opposed for electronic media. Ward campaigns need one media to overt). Despite their arrogance, their big mistakes adviser specifically for local Quest papers and working - land deals, secret deals, no consultation, candidate closely with the dedicated reporters who cover council selection and their reliance on paid messaging rather matters. Adequate media staffing also allows better than direct voter contact, they were able to bombard preparation work on Q&As for policy announcements, residents with forceful campaigning through paid localized releases on central policy announcements advertising (Graham Quirk phone recording) and and better coordination with social media. The early almost every billboard Brisbane 1 month - 2 weeks out establishment of protocols to coordinate with the from the election.” opposition's media advisor and councillors for Council One submission wrote “in hindsight, I do think we could meetings on Tuesdays is also required. This is a key have crafted a stronger last week that more clearly day for media coverage of all things BCC and effective returned to our key campaign theme of congestion coordination with the central campaign is essential in and transport. Having said that, with three Lord helping raise the profile of the Lord Mayoral candidate Mayoral debates and a range of LNP bad news stories and Labor's position on key policy areas. dominating news coverage this may have been difficult Recommendations to achieve even if it had been planned. I do recall ■ thinking our week wasn’t strong but I failed to verbalise 8.1 The BCC Labor team continue to place a premium it,” on quality earned media coverage and where possible other Party units provide support and assistance to "Labor’s legitimate criticisms of Quirk and the LNP monitor and support an ongoing media strategy for 1 think this was the weakest area of the campaign. BCC Councillors and campaigners. Whilst there was a series of anti-Quirk and anti-LNP messaging, these seemed presented for effect rather 8.2 Provide more ongoing direct media support to the than strategic advantage. The LNP brand is quite weak Lord Mayoral campaign and Councillors. and this should have been the main target, particularly 8.3 Provide earlier media training and support for as the LNP engaged in a campaign of safety and preselected candidates. assurance, in addition to a promotion of a Team image (even as simple as a name - Team Quirk).”
In this sense, the LNP appeared to the general public as a connected and tight team, even though reality is they are far from it. In contrast the LNP limited anti-ALP messaging targeted the whole Labor team and state government.
Some local ward campaigns felt they had been beaten 10 to 1 in advertising spend, including billboards and other paid advertising. This is an issue that must be addressed through local fundraising and also consideration of placing caps on expenditure to level the playing field in future campaigns.
There were capacity constraints around media management due to some difficulties in recruiting an appropriate media advisor in January. It helped a great deal when two experienced media personnel came on board. In future the engagement of more experienced media advisers should happen earlier if possible. 29. Social media
The Rod Harding and candidates web site was a BCC Councillors and prospective candidates should good resource but seemed static after a while with be encouraged to use social media and innovative limited information available. Although there is a risk in campaign techniques from now on to ensure that investing too much time and resources into websites they have the skills and experience to utilise them which don’t shift votes, there is a necessity to update effectively in the next campaign. It can be argued that policy and event information on a regular basis, where social media should be amongst the Key Performance it is controlled and monitored by party office. Indicators that would be measured on a regular basis in any campaign (along with basic campaign The use of social media (in particular Facebook) was techniques and milestones such as voter outreach, extremely high amongst all candidates, but this could volunteer recruitment, voter contact, data recording be improved with initiatives out of party office that and fundraising). explore better methods of voter penetration through social media. Although there is continuing scepticism Recommendations that Facebook doesn't change many votes, it certainly 9.1 Invest in more training for Councillors and raised profiles through using targeted advertising and development of targeted social media campaigning has the potential to help grassroots organising by techniques to prepare for the next BCC campaign. recruiting volunteers, raising donations and spreading the Labor message. 9.2 Set up monitoring of LNP Councillors social media activity, particularly potential successors of the current Research from various organisations including the Pew Lord Mayor. Research Centre in the US has shown that the use of mobile devices is increasing dramatically both for finding news and for finding information about politics and government.
In three years technology will change, we must ensure we are proactive with how different voters receive their information. With the decline in print media and the increase in over 55s using Facebook, it is important we reach our target audience efficiently and consistently across campaigns.
30. Lead-up to the formal campaign
One member of the central party campaign team continued success is totally dependent on his wrote: "There were some things that worked very well extraordinary high level of doorknocking. Similarly, and in hindsight some things that could have been I believe my past success was due to high levels of improved upon. An under-resourced opposition with doorknocking. The LNP were, and will be in the future, only a few councillors with limited resources was a cashed up. In the last three days, there was a barrage major issue and remains an issue." of recorded phone messages and social media from the LNP and it worked. The reality is that this will Despite the many challenges some of the things be the strategy of the next campaign. By contrast. which worked very well included: Weekly candidate Labor must have the personal contact advantage/ conference calls; The first round of campaign audits differentiation. Doorknocking remains in my opinion followed by two additional audits; Weekly meetings the best way of getting votes and particularly in with each organisers to track progress of local Local Government. It has to be done well out from campaigns; Regular campaign bulletins that were task elections and continuously. I understand, several high oriented and informative; A good mix of media advisors quality candidates, had amongst the highest levels of in the last month of the campaign; The strategy pushed doorknocking. In retrospect it was insufficient. Priority by Evan in every audit to pick local hot issues and was given on phone calling. Comments from two deliver 'chunks' of votes by using a layered campaign volunteers was that they were ringing ‘friendly people” approach of petitions, community meeting, voter and we were not getting to a broad cross section of contact activity of door knocking and phone calls. the electorate. This should be investigated to see if this One candidate wrote "I would also like to see some perception is valid.” central organisation around a permanent BCC The leadership within the Party and local branches committee with a brief to monitor the BCC, develop needs to be more proactive in selecting and promoting a Brisbane Plan and associated policy, develop good candidates and giving them an earlier start in candidates and assist sitting councillors. Research the campaign so that they have a reasonable chance would include developing date bases of community of earning the necessary community support to be groups, identifying community leaders, communicating successful. with ALP members and getting a sense of the needs of each ward and develop individual ward plans.”
“Labor needs to take succession planning at BCC as seriously as the LNP do. They have had a historically effective strategy of grooming successors through early transitions and effectively giving new candidates a "leg-up” by installing them 12 months prior to an election, as the BCC rules allow. This has given many of their candidates some of the advantages of incumbency in an election year. This might have made a difference in a couple of Labor wards if new, younger replacements had been given the opportunity of earlier starts to their campaigns.
One experienced Councillor stressed the importance of doorknocking as a campaign tool in her submission. "In my opinion, doorknocking is vital for local government elections. It is the local in elections at this tier of government. I suggest that Cr Cummings 31. Candidates who campaigned regularly expressed positive opinion about the Party’s doorknocking and phoning techniques, tools and the support and training they received. Party office provided adequate resources and training in this regard, including with the central campaign database tools. One candidate stated "The feedback that I received from telephone calling was over-whelming positive. In hindsight, I wonder whether the people that I called are generally ALP voters anyway?”
Recommendations
10.1 Invest in more doorknocking and phoning training for party members and BCC Councillors and development of targeted grassroots and community campaigning techniques to prepare for the next BCC campaign.
10.2 Continue investing in an ongoing "Campaign Insight” training program for all party members utilising best practice in Queensland and existing experienced campaigners and trainers from across the state and around Australia.
10.3 Consider utilising webinars and other new training techniques to improve campaign skills sharing and development across the state. .
10.4 Ensure sitting members are proactively inviting candidates to represent or accompany them to community/local events and meetings Key issues and local Ward plans A lot of work was done in a very short period of time Bad Development and its consequences was correctly to assist Councillors and candidates to identify and identified as a real concern for voters. Development campaign on opportunities in their local communities. issues were readily summarised as the uncertainty In future it may be helpful to ask Councillors and MECs of the process, the secrecy of the process and the to assist on an annual basis in maintaining a register abundance of development without warning. People of local campaign opportunities or potential projects noticed the developments but only engaged when the to be considered for implementation during future secrecy and fear of change/unknown were raised. Flow campaigns as part of Labor’s local commitments. on consequences such as parked out streets and traffic One submission suggested the central campaign congestion were noticed throughout the whole ward. was required to spend too much time on identifying We were able to capitalise on the central campaign local commitments as some candidates did not have messaging. adequate local knowledge of their own communities. Most Labor candidates were clear in communicating In one case a local commitment was made for a major that Labor supported responsible development park upgrade, based on a local candidate's advice, as and made it clear the process of poor planning and part of a city wide park improvement announcement. the uncertainty of regulation favouring developers The proposed project was rejected by local residents was our main concern. However, one submission and this became a management issue for the both explained some branch members have different the central and local ward campaign. Some sitting thoughts in that the message wasn’t communicated councillors had done very little work in non-held wards effectively throughout all of Brisbane. For instance, in and this meant the campaign had to start from scratch a neighbouring ward, the anti-development sentiment in some cases. The strategy for identifying local 'hot around an already constructed multi-dwelling may have spots’ for the Congestion Busting Fund was a very alienated existing residents. good one but took a lot of preliminary work on the part of the central campaign and in some cases projects It was also suggested in one submission that were being ’approved’ too late to prosecute our case. development, if not articulated carefully, could be a double-edged sword as many voters already had Because of the work done in 2015 and 2016 there are preconceived notions about what good and bad good opportunities for improvement on local issues development meant to them. Also the majority of campaigning in future as there now exists a good residents out in the large swathes of suburban low- data base of local commitments that the opposition density residential areas do not experience the effects and potential candidates in non-held wards can still of bad development in their day-to-day lives. As a run on this term. A good case in point is a recent result, it’s not an issue that resonates with them, and Quest Newspaper article on a local hot spot project there is the risk of our stance being misconstrued as that Labor promised to deliver (Brisbane Council being inconsistent with a recognised need for higher election results signal continuation of Eight Mile density housing to accommodate a growing population Plains congestion capers. Quest Newspapers April 14, and limit urban sprawl and congestion on arterial roads. 2016. Ruth McCosker). Local residents still want the project delivered and Labor can keep the issue alive. One submission wrote: "Traffic congestion was an issue A commitment by Labor Councillors to shadow LNP we could have spent more time on as it resonated Councillors in key marginal wards is warranted but it with many voters. There was a commitment of $66 needs to be monitored and supported by the Party million on a “Bus Transit Way” but not enough media Office, respective state and federal sitting MPs and key publicity or explanation was given to residents about branches/MECs in each ward. the infrastructure or benefits."
The BCC has saddled Brisbane with a very large debt Another wrote “The strategy to scrap the $650m KSD and work will be needed to explain how this affects project and spread the funding to traffic projects across ratepayers much earlier in the campaign in future. There the city was the right strategy.” One candidate said is a real opportunity for the present caucus and future some of the policy announcements came too late to campaign to run on this issue and some effort should be used effectively by local candidates and gave the be made to track its progress. example of how the KSD announcement could have 33. been used for petitions on fixing local roads in different parts of his ward had he been given more time. This would have helped in many outer urban wards where roads where a significant local issue.
One Labor candidate stressed that Labor needed to better articulate its pro-business credentials and policies as well as better focus its limited resources into wards it can win and needs to defend. “Labor spread itself too thinly compared to the LNP and Greens, who concentrated their efforts on fewer wards.”
Another submission mentioned “no consolidated opposition data base existed on non-delivery of key LNP commitments made in the 2012 campaign, key negative facts to use for attack against Quirk, Questions on Notice, key Committee Reports etc, quotes by Quirk or LNP Chairpersons. 3rd party criticisms, community petitions in non-held wards, press clippings, costings reference material etc." (Councillors Shayne Sutton, Milton Dick and Kim Flesser were able to provide background information, reports and some media clips from their own data bases which proved invaluable and it would be useful to ensure this information is filed centrally and updated and easily accessible for a central campaign.) This meant central campaign resources and staff had to be directed to establishing this information and sourcing evidence to use in responding to LNP announcements. Labor negative advertising, local commitments.
Recommendations
11.1 Set up and maintain a good data base of local issues and local commitments that the opposition and potential candidates in non-held wards can still run on this term.
11.2 Maintain a spotlight on the fact that the LNP has saddled Brisbane with a very large debt and remind people how this affects ratepayers and what Labor will do about it in the future.
34. Formal campaign and early voting Regular campaign bulletins and Tuesday candidate Recommendations phone hook-ups were clear and regular and provided an opportunity for key campaign support staff to be 12.1 Explain the purpose and effect of running involved in communications as well as the candidate. targeted postal vote campaigns to all Councillors and campaigners. Some teams will require more training The central campaign chose a very strategic focus and support than others. regarding postal vote campaigning, with limited resources focussed on persuading more voters and 12.2 Provide regular annual training in using Campaign minimising opportunity costs. This strategic approach Central to run targeted campaigns with limited maximised the return on investment in direct mail and resources. ensured less money was wasted trying to convince the whole electorate to lodge a postal vote.
It was clear that some candidates did not understand how or why postal vote campaigns had evolved over recent years thanks to better databases that are based on voter behaviour and the reduced effectiveness of electorate-wide mailouts. At a national and state level it is now common practice to use smaller targeted lists to more accurately provide postal votes to those who are more likely to use them or have used them in the past. One candidate thought the LNP Postal Vote information sent out (at great expense) across the whole electorate was a more effective technique, without acknowledging the expense and waste involved.
Another campaign wrote "The new Postal Vote system the party has adopted, utilising targeted lists, rather than vastly more expensive and wasteful electorate wide PVAs, worked well for some campaigns. But it needs to be refined. Some campaigns did not understand how to manage it or were unaware of the affordability and value of the "buy in”. It would be worth reviewing the PV results in each Ward to measure the effect of the "buy in” where it occurred and also to ascertain any effects of timing and additional phone calls to PV applicants where they took place.”
35. Final week
Pre-poll voting is a critical aspect of modern election key Wards that we needed to sandbag. It also meant campaigns. All indications are that most of the Wards key campaign organisers were locked into delivering on conducted very good pre-poll rosters and covered this tactic for the Lord Mayoral campaign and were not nearly all voting points. as available to ensure planning for election day in key wards. A case in point is the Northgate Campaign. It One submission was very critical about the is now clear that the local campaign was not organized administration of institutional voting and suggested enough to manage the distribution of Green second a "long overdue investigation by the ECQ into the preference cards. Kim Flesser acknowledges this in practices and behaviours within institutions". There his submission: "The number one problem is that The were reports that “some institutions were inviting Greens distributed almost zero HTV cards (which LNP candidates to meet residents prior to voting but preferenced Labor) on election day”. This should have refusing the same access to Labor candidates”. There been picked up earlier and full coverage of all booths were also reports of addressed letters from Labor ensured prior to election day. candidates not being received by residents. One submission wrote "The central media messaging One submission wrote: "the last week, the LNP use of was distracted by certain 72 Hour campaign 'events’ robo-calls and push-poll-style questionnaires had a and not focused on delivering key campaign messages dramatic effect. They worked. Many people hate robo aimed at undecided voters.” calls but the LNP camouflaged theirs well to make it look like genuine polling. It was not uncommon for The administration of some local polling booths was voters in The Gap Ward to be polled by the LNP twice questioned by one submission. No system is perfect in one night or receive four to five calls in the final but there should be clear and transparent guidelines to week. The questions began innocuously but voters who ensure publicly advertised, merit-based appointments identified as soft or swinging or Labor then received of even casual staff to avoid any future accusations further questions along the lines of “Are you concerned of nepotism or political bias in such an important about an inexperienced Labor Administration” or institutional process. variations of “Do you still agree that Brisbane is on the One written submission observed "Although we right track with Quirk?” capitalised well on media opportunities and Rod Polling indicated in the last week that our Lord Mayoral performed well in the final week, I thought we lost Candidate would poll around 48% of the vote. It’s clear momentum. Perhaps our quick embrace of tactical he fell substantially short of that. With the wisdom opportunities may have been at the expense of a of hindsight, it would have helped to hose down clearer, simpler message.” expectations throughout the final two weeks once pre One submission suggested "We tried to do too much poll has started. It’s possible (although hard to prove) in the final three days by taking the mayoral candidate that the combination of a protest and zero expectations to every ward. Those type of tours do well in state of a Labor win in the previous State election had helped and federal contests where there is a captive media get Labor over the line. Although the protest element contingent, but they don’t work in local government certainly did not exist in the BCC campaign, it would campaigns.” Although there was a conscious decision have been more strategic to maintain an underdog to focus on one media event per day targeted at a TV status and hose down expectations. and radio audience, it may not have been necessary to Although there was a consensus, that overall the Labor include so many of the candidates and instead let more campaign was as good as has been ever run before and of them remain focussed on direct voter contact at the certainly better than the last effort, several submissions individual ward level. wrote that some Ward campaigns could have been It is well known that it is very hard to announce new improved. substantive policies in the last week of any campaign. The 72 hour campaign’ tactic in the final week also saw This campaign made it even harder to shift undecided a less strategic use of campaign resources and staff in voters, particularly in the final week, as this was not an 36, election with a mood for change as is often the case Recommendations in local government elections against incumbents who 13.1 Labor should continue to utilise the first and final are well known. One submission wrote “we needed to 72 hours of any campaign to frame the key themes and have more focus on delivering key campaign messages differentiate the two parties. Labor should continue to in key Wards and incorporate a greater emphasis on plan to use this time to remind voters about key issues Labor’s costings and allow us to prosecute our case and maintain campaign momentum through media on debt/rate increases under the LNP because of their events and voter contact at the local level. ‘wrong’ plan and funding model. This was a missed opportunity to create the 'perfect storm' in the final week - the wrong plan for solving traffic congestion and rate increases under Quirk and to highlight Rod Harding’s strengths - sound financial management, professional experience to run a big budget and council and use this to counter the LNP’s "Labor is a risk” message. It also meant the City Hall debate on Friday was a very dull affair and no clear contrasts were established or reported for the evening news or following morning media on Saturday 19th. In fact, the coverage in the Courier Mail on Saturday 19th highlights the challenge we faced in creating a clear message about choice. As a result of Labor disclosing donations prior to the election, local government election summary stories on pages 6 and 7 included one article about Labor’s ‘war chest’ of donations, a colour picture of the LNP’s new last week message corflute (that was displayed at polling booths) - Labor; is it worth the risk?”
It is important to note that "bad development" was a second-tier issue and worked best when it was targeted at Wards where it was more' relevant.
The second negative story was a two-page spread on pages 12 and 13 on the resignation of a Labor MP from the State government “Pressure building for early election”. This helped feed into the LNP’s messaging of Quirk being a ‘safe pair of hands' and the need for certainty and political stability - at least at a council level.
One submission wrote “Labor losing two Wards is partly explained by Greens votes exhausting with rates as high as 50 or 60 per cent. Where Green How to Votes Cards were distributed made no difference. Northgate was knocked out by Green exhaustion. This is what optional preferential means for many sitting members.” However, there were substantial swings in many wards with Labor now in a position to win back many wards at the next election.
37. Election Day
Unfortunately, the voter turnout was low in many sometimes, none at all. Green How-To-Votes being traditional Labor areas, dampening the primary vote in handed out apart from in the Wards they targeted a close contest and exacerbating the result in the two themselves. It's very important that local Labor wards which we lost. The LNP bunting was deemed to campaigns speak to local Green campaigns and try be more effective “Just vote 1 Team Quirk” as opposed to ascertain whether or not this important activity is to “Don’t forget to number every square”. being planned and is undertaken at pre-poll and on Election Day. Some signage or leaflets for prospective The overall average swing in LNP held wards was Green and independent voters might help in the future approximately 6.9% to the ALP. The primary vote "If you’re thinking of voting Green, make sure you for the ALP, only increased by an overall average of preference Labor in both ballots”. approximately 3.9% in LNP held wards. This is skewed mostly due to the very strong turnout for the Greens Recommendations candidates and the Greens having candidates in all 14.1 An unprecedented level of training, support and Wards. Marchant Ward achieved an 8.2% swing towards information was provided in this BCC campaign and the ALP. What was considered a safe LNP seat is now a the Party should continue to look for more ways of winnable Ward in the 2020 election. sharing best practice between campaign teams and It is important to note the LNP went from having only continue to provide support to any inexperienced or 3 Wards with a margin of less than 10% prior to the new campaigners in preparation for election day. election, to having 10 Wards with a margin of less than 14.2 Consideration should be given to distributing 10% afterwards. A repeat of a 6.9% swing in 2020 more material which targets preferences before and could conceivably lead to a gain of 8 seats to the ALP during election day. bringing them to a 13 seat split council. Although a special effort will be required to regain recently lost Wards that will be defended vigorously by the Liberals and Greens.
There was evidence that despite a promise to deliver preferences to Labor there were very few, and Outcome
Overall, there was a substantial swing to the ALP in the enthusiasm for the Lord Mayor there was no compelling Mayoral race, with nearly a 7% primary swing achieved reason for change. Many factors influenced the and an almost a double digit 2PP swing. This wasn’t, outcome and there is strong speculation some were not however, reflected in the ward results with Labor losing Brisbane City Council related. One recurring impression two Wards. provided during the Review was that voters didn’t want to risk change or see a split Council. It was no so much The LNP primary vote dropped from 57.1% to 49.7%, a pro-Liberal or an anti-Labor vote, but a pro-unity however Labor’s vote only increased from 32% to vote. 33.8%, with the bulk of the swing going to the Greens, who increased their vote from 8.5% to 13.9%. This is One Councillor wrote after the campaign "During the partially explained by the fact the Greens only ran in 18 campaign I thought we were running a good campaign Wards in 2012, and ran in 26 in 2016. and would go close. The outcome of the loss at the Mayoralty surprised me. the ward results shocked me On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor gained big and are a long time disaster for Labor at City Hall.” swings in many LNP Wards, but not in the ones that mattered, (see figures on next page). Although Labor improved its standing in many wards and chipped away at the Mayoral result, the result The LNP has held on to all of their wards. Labor lost was still very disappointing to many. One experienced its marginal Ward of Northgate to the Liberal National campaigner lamented, "any honest assessment would Party, and Labor lost The Gabba Ward to the Greens in have to conclude that we were not all that effective. a tight race. Over the past 4 years The Mayor obviously lost some Overall this leaves the LNP with 19 wards (up from 18), skin. A dull boring old man's vote came back by 10% the ALP with five (down from seven), independent and yet we lost 2 more Wards. But BCC elections are Nicole Johnston with her Ward of Tennyson, and the unlike State and Federal campaigns, where the tide Greens with their first Brisbane council seat. goes out or comes in and it is only a matter of how far. Incumbency worked well for the Lord Mayor and (that is what the campaigns decide). Swings are never his Councillors. Although there was no entrenched uniform and Ward Councillors are able to dig in at the local level and are hard to dig out.” Wards listed in order of ALP TPP swing
a Winner Ea Paddington MATiC, Peter LNP 11,736 CRN 9,283 44.2% 2.1 AS 1,227 5,8% na I Pullenvale RICHARDS, Kite LNP 15,794 GUM 7,391 31.9% 2.228 4,202 18.1% Tennyson JOHNSTON, Nicole 14,150 ALP 4,404 23.7% 4,132 4,873 26-3% na I IND The Gibtsa SRI, Jonathan 5RN 10,194 LNP 8.136 45.0% 2.978 929 5.0% na Walter Taylor SIMMONDS, Julian LNP 14,574 GRN 7.136 33,5% 1,S$4 1,619 16.5% na The Gap TOOMEY, Steve LNP 13,356 ALP 10,639 44.3% 1.498 1,359 5.7% 15.3% Marchant KING, Fiona LNP 13,260 ALP 9,496 41.7% 1,323 1,882 8.3% 15.2% Bracken Ridge COOPER. Amanda LNP 13.989 ALP 9,101 39.4% I.M1 X444 10.6% Wynnum Manly CUMMING, Peter ALP 14,138 LNP 8,827 38.4% 943 X656 U,6% 10.9% McOowall WYNDHAM, Norm LNP 15,350 alp 8,193 34,8% 1,214 3,579 15.2% 9.9% Enc^era WINES, Andrew LNP 12,563 ALP 10,378 45.2% 1.734 1,093 4.8% 921% Coorparoo MCKENZIE, Ian LNP 11,117 ALP 9,875 47,0% 2.145 621 3.0% 9.l%i Runcorn MARX, Kim LNP 1X471 ALP 9,040 42.0% 1.184 1,716 8.0% 8.3% Harnilton MCLACHLAN, OwW LNP 14,037 ALP 6,714 32.4% 1.623 1,662 17.6% 7.2%, 4,I3%1 Holland Park ADAMS, Krista LNP 11,897 ALP 9,820 45.2% 1.414 1,039 4.8% Calamvale O WEN-TAYLOR. Angela LNP 14,051 ALP 7,653 35.3% 1.431 1,199 14.7% 3.4%' Moorooka GRIFFITHS, Steve ALP 13,035 LNP 7,469 36.3% 1,573 X80S 13.7% 3.0% Chandler SCHRINNER, Adrian LNP 15,867 ALP 5,390 25,4% 9S4 5,239 24.6% 2.9% Macgregor HUANG, Steven LNP 13,392 ALP 7,626 36.3% 1,578 2,883 13.7% 2.8% Jamboree BDURKE, Matthew LNP 15,476 ALP 6,923 30.9% 1.136 4,277 19.1% 2.0% Central HOWARD. Vicki LNP 10,878 ALP 7,803 41.8% I, 829 1,535 8,2% Morningside SUTTON, Shayne ALP 13,006 LNP 9,993 43,5% J. OS9 1,507 6.6% 0.6%j 0,0%^ Forest take STRUNK, Charles ALP 12.235 LNP 9,886 44.7% 1,358 1,175 5.3% Ooboy MURPHY, Ryan LNP 11,559 ALP 9,737 45.7% 1,480 911 4.3% -0.8% Northgate ALLAN, Adam LNP 11,796 AlP 11.018 48,3% 1,722 389 1.7% -1.3% Dcagon CASSIDY, Jared ALP 12,092 LNP 10,406 46,3% 1,460 843 3-8% ■1.5%, 39. The figures for raw primary swing numbers (below) also show there was a significant shift away from the LNP, both from Labor's resurgence but also from the appearance of green candidates in an additional eight wards compared to 2012.
[ward B tonnai B*M> Til B 8™^ P B aip prim swing The Gap 25,493 8,670 12,903 3,920 34% 51% 15% 0% 15.4% Wynnum Manly 23,908 13,344 8,574 1,990 56% 36% 3% 0% 10.9% Bracken Ridge 24,141 8,352 13,669 2,120 35% 57% 9% 0% 9.3% Macgregor 22,596 6,748 13,017 2,831 30% 58% 13% 0% 9.0% Runcorn 22,695 8,281 12,210 2,204 36% 54% 10% 0% 7.2% 1 Enoggera 24,675 8,568 12,235 3,872 35% 50% 16% 0% 6.8% Pullen vale 25,413 4,628 15,356 5,419 18% 60% 21% 0% 6.2% Marchant 24,079 8,121 12,851 3,107 34% 53% 13% 0% 5.5% Hamilton 22,374 5/161 13,697 2-216 24% 61% 14% 0% 3%’ Coorparoo 23,137 8,157 10,774 3,567 639 35% 47% 15% 4.W McDowall 24,761 7,337 15,104 2.320 30% 61% 9% 0% 3.3% Tennyson 22,®6 3,335 3,794 2,985 12,572 15% 17% 13% 55% 2.4% Holland Park 23,131 8,246 11,476 3,409 36% 50% 15% 0% 0.9% Walter Taylor 23,464 3,920 14,190 5,354 17% 60% 23% 0% 0.9% Chandler 22,211 4,755 15,591 1,865 21% 70% 8% 0% -0.5% Paddingtorr 23,164 5.510 11,326 6,328 24% 49% 27% 0% -1.3% Jamboree 23,535 5,763 15,088 2,684 24% 64% 11% 0% Ca! am vale 23,135 7,004 13,799 2,332 30% 60% 10% 0% -1.6% Moorooka 22,127 11,463 7,218 3,446 52% 33% 16% £«6 -2.2% Central 20,515 5,471 10,430 4,614 27% 51% 22% 0% ■2.9% Deagon 23,958 10,504 10.095 3,359 44% 42% 14% ... -4.9% Forest Lake 23,479 11,533 9,560 2,386 49% 41% 10% 0% ■6-2% Morrtingside 24,058 11,748 9,740 2.570 49% 40% 11% 0% -7.1% Ooboy 22,776 8,858 11,180 1,788 950 39% 49% 8% 4% -7.6% Northgate 24,536 9,581 11,456 3,499 39% 47% 14% 0% -11.3% The Gabba 21,508 e/t57 7,712 6,823 516 30% 36% 32% 2% -15.1%,
40. One submission wrote “It was terrible that we lost needs of our growing City and its residents." two Wards. It is very hard to win Wards due to the One submission lamented "Optional preferential advantages of incumbency at a local level, where you can actually speak to most of your constituents on an voting probably cost us 3%-5% in most wards and the annual basis. It is telling that the two Wards we lost campaign seemed to put the problem it caused us in both had Labor incumbents who could have done what the too-hard basket," the LNP does and retire older Councillors earlier and It is ironic too that despite increasingly volatility allow newly energised successors to build their support in voting patterns and significant swings in recent in the electorate. There has to be a similar strategy by elections, voters seem to repeatedly crave stability. As Labor in the future so we don’t lose more wards." a progressive party the Labor Party will continue to be faced with the challenge of balancing reform with the One experienced campaigner explained that "it was need to build and maintain public confidence in the unrealistic to expect to win when everyone knew the stability of the team and its leadership. LNP had more money, they preselected earlier, they had more incumbents. Their brand was better, their Recommendations message was simpler and more effective, they bought more advertising and earlier advertising than we did 15.1 Labor should adopt as a standard operating and they targeted their resources more intensively. We procedure the LNP tactic of replacing retiring did very well in the circumstances but we were never Councillors at the 12-month mark to enable adequate going to win." succession planning and engagement with the community by new Councillors. Marchant Ward candidate Stephanie Serhan said "It was a pleasure and honour to stand as the candidate 15.2 Succession planning must be taken seriously and for Marchant. With 6 months of campaigning against potential candidates in each key ward should be spoken an incumbent who has been there 8 years, I know we to early and assisted in developing a community profile did all we could to win the Ward for Labor. Although before being endorsed as candidates. we didn’t achieve the win we were hoping for, I am proud of the local campaign we ran and the margin we gained. The result also didn’t mirror the 2015 State swing numbers because people in that instance didn’t vote FOR the ALP as much as they voted AGAINST Newman. Therefore, achieving a swing of 8% was in hindsight a great result for the Council election. We door knocked over 15,000 homes, consistently called 100s of residents on a weekly basis and letter boxed the whole Ward with the help of many volunteers. A special thank you to my campaign director Stella Rey. Her experience, mobilising volunteers and attention to detail gave our campaign the professionalism and momentum to achieve the local result we did. Thank you to Jon Persley for the consistent communication and answering all my questions. To Party Office, Evan Moorhead and our Organiser Lucy Collier who hit the ground running after taking over from Tom Kenny, your support and dedication to ALP is invaluable.”
One candidate wrote “In The Gabba Ward, the 2016 election result is nothing short of heartbreaking. The final count saw a 14.02 per cent swing to The Greens - 366 votes ahead of Labor. For our small, but dedicated, campaign team the loss still hurts. We love the Labor Party and we love our local community - we strongly believe Labor remains the best party to represent the 41. The Gabba and Northgate results and localised issues As stated previously, the results in The Gabba and It was apparent after the campaign that the LNP had Northgate Wards were particularly disappointing, targeted Northgate with significant resources. There not least for the losing candidates, the retiring Labor was also rumours that the Liberals were running a Get members, each of their teams, family and supporters Out The Vote (GOTV) style campaign in inner city but also for many others at Party office and others seats which targeted and identified LNP voters and who care about the Labor Party. Both Wards deserve encouraged and reminded them to vote. a closer study than this review can provide, given the One Labor campaigner wrote “If the local Greens’ vote close results and possibility lessons from these seats continues to run around 14-15%, Optional Preferential will apply at the next election. Some consideration Voting will make it difficult to win back Northgate Ward needs to be given to establishing ongoing campaign from the LNP. If 50% of Greens preferences continue teams or MECs in these Wards to maintain pressure on to exhaust: Labor needs to increase its primary vote the new Councillors and deprive them of confidence from 39% in 2016 to 45% to ensure victory. The 2020 of incumbency and give the next Labor candidates a campaign will face the challenge of an incumbent good chance of retaking these seats. Councillor. Unsurprisingly, there was a large variation in individual Analysis of past and present optional and compulsory explanations of the factors involved in these particular preference data forwarded to the review indicates that results. However, a large majority of party submissions optional preferential voting affected the results In both mentioned these seats specifically and also specifically Northgate and Coorparoo, both of which are now LNP mentioned the need to ensure earlier transitions and seats but would be ALP seats if the same preference succession plans for new candidates, in the same allocation had taken place as normally takes place In way that the LNP have effectively transitioned to new Federal elections. candidates once a Councillor has indicated they are not contesting the next election. . The result in the Northgate Ward is partially explained by the very narrow margin from the previous campaign An experienced campaigner in Northgate Ward in 2012, when only two candidates ran. The LNP explained how “it was easy to pick fault in hindsight, received 49% of the primary vote in 2012, however they however at no stage in the campaign did I think that won with a smaller primary in 2016. In 2012 there was our general strategy was wrong and that we were no Green candidate but in 2016 the Greens achieved a making any significant mistakes. I have never before primary of over 14%, most of which exhausted without witnessed the Party machine, State Secretary, Assistant allocating preferences. It was observed that the Greens State Secretary and officials put as much effort and did not hand out HTVs at many booths and although resources into a BCC election campaign. Rod Harding about 90% of preferences did go to Labor, there were was a great Lord Mayoral Candidate. The Party has far from enough to save the seat. It is possible that a clearly invested a considerable amount of financial and compulsory preference scenario may have prevented profile building effort into Rod and I believe he would the LNP from winning this seat. make an excellent candidate in 2020. The Gabba local campaign team knew there was the Another factor, as explained by an adjoining strong potential for a significant swing to the Greens. Councillor was “The LNP candidate in Northgate was The Greens candidate continued his 2015 South doorknocking like crazy about 12 months out, well Brisbane State campaign into The Gabba campaign. before Labor’s candidate was preselected." This head start on an opponent with a personalised interactive The Greens also publicly announced that they were campaign technique like doorknocking is hard to focusing all their resources on only three wards - The counter. There is nothing particularly special about his Gabba, Paddington and Central. message or material but it clearly had an impact, most likely through the vehicle of direct voter contact over a relatively longer period of time. 42. The Greens polled ahead of Labor in two of those Recommendations wards and received 22.42% of the vote in the third. 16.1 The results in the two Wards which Labor lost can Incidentally, all three of those wards had the lowest voter turnouts - below 80%. be explained partially by localised factors and would require a targeted and localised strategy to regain in One submission wrote “It was clear that no part of the future elections. Ward could be taken for granted. On polling day. West End State School booth was a disaster for Labor with 16.2 Local MECs assisted by other party units should be maintained in all Wards and in particular both The the Greens receiving 44.3% of this booth, the largest in Gabba and Northgate Wards. The Gabba.’’
With the wisdom of hindsight there was also a very big difference between the Reachtel polling for the Gabba and the final results, indicating a serious problem with the polling, or a significant turn in the final few weeks of the campaign towards the Greens. The result in Northgate suggests it was a problem primarily with the polling.
As the Councillor for The Gabba, Councillor Abrahams had built a strong personal following. Cr Abrahams strong profile in the local media denied Labor’s Nicole Lessio opportunity to establish her local credentials.
There was also an evident lack of coordination, with media events from Cr Abrahams not including Labor’s candidate and sometimes coming as a surprise to the campaign team. ■
As noted above, a failure to plan for succession has cost Labor a number of wards in the last 15 years. There have been some cases of good succession planning, including Cr Jared Cassidy replacing Victoria Newton in Deagon ward, Cr Griffiths replacing Mark Bailey in Moorooka ward and Cr Abrahams replacing Tim Quinn in the then Kurilpa Ward.
Labor’s failure to provide an orderly succession exacerbated the advantage of a Green candidate with a high profile and more resources than the Labor candidate due to this recent candidacy in the 2015 State election. Ms Abrahams agreed in her written submission “In a change of opinion, I support the appointment of the new Councillor prior to the election, subject to checking there are no local reasons not to do so, This worked successfully in Deagon and The Gap wards.
43. The emerging Green vote A couple of submissions made specific mention of the and in many cases it is, with Green representatives continuing threat from an emerging Green presence openly criticising Labor governments, oppositions and in several wards, despite a minimal Green vote in the candidates and directly appealing to Labor voters to Mayoral contest and low support for the Greens in the reject their traditional party. majority of Brisbane suburbs. Overall there has been little increase in the Green vote across Brisbane in 15 In parts of Australia where there is a relatively years. However, there was general disappointment that surprising harmony between local Labor and Green representatives and campaigns, the Labor team has Labor lost a Ward to the Greens and finished in third adopted a philosophy of focussing on their own spot behind the Greens in another Ward, The focus strategy and avoiding getting into public slanging should never be just about getting Green preferences, although that does matter in close contests. We matches with the Greens. If left alone the Greens are should be studying and adopting best practice from often forced to attack the LNP to maintain relevance with progressive voters who all, in the end, want a similar Green and Labor contests in other jurisdictions progressive government that delivers for working including Sydney, The ACT, Melbourne and Tasmania. people. This issue will become increasingly critical in state and federal seats as well. ■ Labor also came third in Paddington, pointing to a continuing challenge in inner city wards. Inner city The Green campaign in Central Ward was typical in its Wards also suggested that some of the city-wide policy focus and message. The candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is a announcements needed some more nuance to work perpetual candidate as she has run at the Local, State effectively in the inner city, where issues like parking and now Federal levels, slowly increasing her profile and bus services sometimes trumped public transport in each step. In the last eight weeks of the campaign, infrastructure like Light Rail. Many people who rented the Greens started doing street stalls, door knocking did not perceive there were serious problems with and leaflets. Before then, Kirsten used the “Spring bad development, which was largely a concern of Hill Neighbourhood Group” as an effective way to owner-residents. The Liberals also utilised anti-State campaign against planning laws and raise her profile in Labor-government messages on polling booths such as the community. Kirsten Lovejoy did not campaign on "Vote for Vicki and vote against Labor's lock-out laws”, local government issues, she campaigned against the creating the false impression that Labor was opposed Labor State Government. She blamed all Council issues to local entertainment venues. regarding development on the State Government and the State Government planning laws, as did the LNP, despite the irony. Despite promises to preference Labor, over 1000 Green votes exhausted in the Central Ward. This is despite the Greens including Labor as No. 2 on their HTVs. The ‘Number Every Box’ message did not seem to get through.
The issue of how to deal with the growing Green vote was touched on in various submissions, in particular those with an inner-city focus. There are plenty of examples from around Australia of how the ALP is dealing with this issue at various levels of government. Unsurprisingly in larger wealthier cities the Greens have developed an entrenched following in wealthier inner- city areas, but they also have reached into traditional Labor strongholds via gentrification and where they recruit capable and effective local candidates. Many people in the Labor Party see this growth in the Green vote as a direct threat from the left flank of politics 44. The table below lists the wards in order of Green The inner city also suffered from a historically lower primary votes and shows the large number of Green turnout than in recent elections. This could be caused votes that simply exhausted. Where votes did not. by a combination of factors such as younger, less exhaust and preferences were distributed, the ALP did engaged voters as well as more mobile populations get most of them, but a combination of lower turnouts with less interest in local issues. and exhaustion meant the effect of Green preferences ward Dgrn prim® grn exhastQ flow to alpSJl is diminishing each year. TheGabba 6,823 ward B gtn prim H gtn exhast B flow to alp Bl Paddington 6,328 The Gabba 6,823 Pullenvale 5,419 Paddington 5,328 Walter Taylor 5,354 Pullenvale 5,419 Central 4,614 39.6% 83.9% Walter Taylor 5,354 The Gap 3,920 38.2% 81.3% Central 4,614 39.6% 83.9% Enoggera 3,872 44.8% 84.7% The Gap 3,920 38.2% 81.3% Coorparoo 3,567 48.8% 84.8% Enoggera 3,872 44.8% 84.7% Northgate 3,499 49.2% 80.9% Coorparoo 3,567 48.8% 84.8% Moorooka 3,446 45.7% 86.6% Northgate 3,499 49.2% 80.9% Holland Park 3,409 41.5% 78.9% Moorooka 3,446 45.7% 86.6% Deagon 3,359 43.5% 83.6% Holland Park 3,409 41.5% 78.9% Hamilton 3,216 50.5% 78.7% Deagon 3,359 43.5% 83.6% Marchant 3,107 42,6% 77.1% Hamilton 3,216 50.5% 78.7% Tennyson 2,985 39.6% 5.7% Marchant 3,107 42.6% 77.1% Macgregor 2,831 55.7% 70.1% Tennyson 2,985 39.5% 5.7% Jamboree 2,684 42.3% 74.9% Macgregor 2,831 55.7% 70.1% Morningside 2,570 41.2% 83.3% Jamboree 2,684 42.3% 74.9% Forest Lake 2,386 56.9% 68.3% Morningside 2,570 41.2% 83.3% Calamvale 2,332 61.4% 72.0% Forest Lake 2,386 56.9% 68.3% McDowall 2,320 52.4% 77.7% Calamvale 2,332 61.4% 72.0% Runcorn 2,204 53.7% 74,4% McDowall 2,320 52.4% 77.7% Bracken Ridge 2,120 49.6% 70.1% Runcorn 2,204 53.7% 74.4% Wynnum Manly 1,990 47.4% 75.8% Bracken Ridge 2,120 49.5% 70.1% Chandler 1,865 51.2% 69.7% Wynnum Manly 1,990 47.4% 75.8% Doboy 1,788 50.2% 75.3%, Chandler 1,865 51.2% 69.7% Doboy 1,788 50.2% 75.3%^
Dropping turnout will be an increasing challenge for Labor campaigners all over Australia. Despite our compulsory voting rules, more and more Australians are becoming less engaged in politics and less loyal to individual parties and candidates.
Recommendations
17.1 Old Labor should work closely with other Labor campaigners in jurisdictions with strong or emerging Green Party votes to ascertain which localised strategy will be most suited in the various BCC Wards and during the Mayoral campaign in 2020.
45. The Mayoral Campaign An experienced campaigner wrote “This campaign was Despite the poor LNP brand the public image of Quirk more professional than the 2008 and 2012 campaigns was largely benign and the LNP were able to use that as evident by the policy development, the attention vehicle to run the line that “Brisbane was on the right to costing of projects, and the outputs of the media track” and “don't risk Labor”, which they effectively did team. Rod Harding was a strong candidate and worked in the last two weeks. with a high level of commitment. It was great to see By and large most submissions concluded the Mayoral his confidence grow during the campaign. The team Campaign's media management was very good. worked to Rod Harding's strengths as is their role. We Things never go exactly to plan, but Rod’s appearances know that a different flow of Green preference would on TV were almost always ‘on message’ and he always have changed the outcome in some Wards." looked energetic Labor's election commitments were In any BCC contest, particularly one in which Labor generally well targeted. now has a reduced minority, the main focus of effort One submission suggested "we were trying to do too must be the Mayoral campaign. The Ward campaigns many things. Maybe we should have been less focussed are essential as well but with limited time and resources on getting Rod on the news every night with a different from Party office it must be recognised that the announcement, and more focussed on hammering and potential of the Mayoral campaign to drive positive hammering 2 or 3 core issues?" results in the Wards is much greater than the other way around. The Mayoral campaign also excites the media One submission wrote: "I've always heard that a and drives earned media opportunities. successful campaign has to be based on some truth and the truth for us during this campaign was that One submission reflected the opinion of several Quirk and the LNP hadn’t really had any major stuff ups interviewees “The biggest challenge we had was over the last term. It’s the nature of local government Quirk seems to most people an inoffensive bloke who that it’s the level of government where you can get deserved another run." things done and keep people relatively happy. That Another explained “Rod Harding's profile gathered seemed to be the case for us and it proved difficulty momentum after August, particularly after the to mount a case for change when people didn’t feel a Kingsford Smith Drive announcement, which engaged major need for it. It’s also the case that bringing in an media attention and voter interest." ‘outsider’ as a Lord Mayoral candidate means they have to fight for relevance and reinvent an opposition under One submission explained that our greatest failing was their leadership.” the error of judgement around the polling, but “this was compounded further by Labor's failure to lay a glove on Recommendations Quirk. Well before the formal campaign began it was As previously stated, the Party should conduct clear Quirk's greatest asset was that he was innocuous. preselections between 18 and 12 months prior to Most people didn't know or care enough about him to elections as a matter of course unless there are have a strong opinion and because they didn't see a exceptional circumstances. (3.1) problem they were not inclined towards change." Conclusions It was clear that the LNP significantly outspent Labor in the 2016 BCC Mayoral campaign, in city-wide advertising, as well as in most Ward campaigns. Some campaigns mentioned being outspent 10 to 1. In such circumstances serious consideration should be given to adopting expenditure caps, similar to those which exist in other jurisdictions such as NSW state elections and ACT Assembly elections, in order to create a more level playing field and improve democratic competition.
It is widely speculated that Graham Quirk will retire important positives. But the more important reason 12 months before the 2020 election and the LNP will for my addressing you tonight is to simply express my appoint a replacement Lord Mayor. It would advantage personal thanks to everyone on the admin committee. It Labor in that situation to have a Lord Mayoral is a rare honour that you get to run for public office for Candidate ‘in the field' before Quirk retires to take the Australian Labor Party. I feel privileged to have had advantage of any 'unelected Mayor’ sentiments and that opportunity and I want to thank you for the trust views that the LNP had 'gamed’ the system. you placed in me. Thank you.”
In 2020 there will have been 16 years of continuous LNP Rod is also willing to take a lead role in the party’s post BCC Administration. At the last BCC election the LNP campaign renewal and reform process, to give local had controlled the Mayoralty for 12 years - longer than government campaigning a higher priority and value Howard was Prime Minister. By the next election 18 year within the ALP, old first time voters will have been two years old when With the right support he could lead a long-term the LNP first assumed control of the Mayoralty. Labor strategy of policy development to help build Labor’s should run an "its time campaign” in 2020. BCC effort for 2020. The next year could be focussed Several submissions stated many in the Party would on party campaign-capacity building and recruiting strongly support Rod Harding to again run as the Lord volunteers, MECs and local campaigners around Mayoral Candidate. There are no perceptible negative important policy issues. Year 2 could be focussed on views in the Party or in the community about Rod. community engagement and policy development with stakeholders and residential groups. Community action At the April Administrative Committee meeting of the networks could be set up in each word similar to the Queensland Branch Rod Harding made the following successful Labor CANs in other states like Victoria and statement: WA. They could be given a generic title for their local “Thank you for the chance to speak tonight, I’m here campaign work, such as "Labor supporters for a better for two reasons: First to briefly address the Brisbane Brisbane” or similar. Work could be done identifying City Council election result. We clearly did not get the and recruiting potential Ward candidates with result we wanted and that was a huge disappointment community experience. Year 3 could be focussed on to me and to everyone involved but I can stand in front preselections and public engagement, effectively acting of you tonight and say hand on heart that everything as a springboard into the final year of campaigning. we could have done, we did. It’s a good thing that there Conservatives like Turnbull will more than likely is a thorough process underway to examine the reasons continue to position themselves as the only hope for why we did not win.” long term stability and a long term policy program, with “But it’s also important to remember that there were this being opposed by Labor on the left and Abbott on some very hopeful things to take away from the result: the right, then he may be the beneficiary of a similar Close to a double digit swing in the Mayoral vote - outcome. For Labor, this means that we have to put we changed the vote of more than 45,000 people: more effort into positioning ourselves as the only party In the wards - there are now 6 non held wards with a with long term plans for the future. margin of less than 5% (after 2012 there was 1): There are now 11 non held wards with a margin of less than 10% (after 2012 there was 3): So there were some 47. Brisbane Wards Brisbane City Council after 2016 election
LNP & Others LABOR
1
KiMZ'’jl'eohysSffiOehnston) ■'3
24.6 Chandler (Schrinner)
19.0 Jamboree (Bourke)
18.1 Pullenvale (Richards)
17.6 Hamilton (McLachlan)
16.5 Walter Taylor (Simmonds)
15.2 McDowall (Wyndham)
14.7 Calamvale (Owen-Taylor)
13.7 Macgregor (Huang) Moorooka (Griffiths) 13.6
Wynnum Manly (Cumming) 11.56 10.5 Bracken Ridge (Cooper) 8.2 Marchant (King) 8.2 Central (Howard) ALP Gains Majority 7.9 Runcorn (Marx)
LNP Loses Majority
20162PP LNP 55.7% ALP 44.3% 2016 1st Pref LNP 49.3% ALP 33.1% LNP 19 GRN 14.6% T ALP 5 IND 3.1% IND 1 GRN Vote Flow GRN [ LNP 11% 26 ALP 42% Exhaust 45%