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European Debt Sales European debt sales Loan portfolio advisory Portfolio Solutions Group 2016 ______ kpmg.com KPMG INTERNATIONAL © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Foreword Welcome to KPMG’s European Debt Sales 2016 report. In this report, we identify and discuss those key topics relevant to the European bank deleveraging landscape that we think will take centre stage in 2016. We also take a look back to see how the loan sale markets performed in 2015 across more than twenty countries across Europe. 2015 was another strong year for European loan sales, – Intense competition between buyers for portfolios with over €104 billion in closed transactions across in the UK and Ireland since 2013 has led investors 30 European countries. Hot spots over the past year to turn their eyes southward toward the recovering included the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, Italy, and economies of Spain and Italy for acquisitions. Spain Spain, where over €86 billion of transactions closed. recorded over €15 billion in closed transactions, with Pleasingly, the pipeline remains strong for 2016, with Italy just behind with over €13 billion in 2015. Notably, over €32 billion in ongoing transactions, and continued both markets have now begun the process of selling interest from domestic and international investors real estate owned (REO) and real estate secured debt looking to purchase European loan portfolios. in larger volumes, which has drawn greater attention from buyers and financiers. – The UK recorded the highest volume of loan sales, with over £30 billion of transactions closed in 2015. – Countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) This number was boosted with the sale of UK Asset continue to mature as loan sale markets, with over Resolution’s £13 billion Project Granite to Cerberus, 35 transactions brought to market across all asset which was the year’s largest single loan sale classes. Notably, Hungary saw its first successful transaction in Europe. As the UK returns to growth, secured loan sale by MKB Bank to Lone Star, and 2016 activity will be driven by competition amongst Romania saw the largest successful sale in CEE banks, funds, and financiers to profitably originate and this year, the €1.2 billion Project Tokyo sold by Banca grow. Comerciala Romana (Erste Group) to Deutsche Bank. – Banks in Ireland continued to contract their balance – Many investors have also started to look towards sheets, with over €24 billion of closed transactions in Greece and Cyprus for future investment opportunities 2015. The Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking as they work to revive their banking sectors, address Group substantially completed their Irish deleveraging problem loans, and as their banks continue to divest plans, with the sales of the €2.6 billion Project Finn their overseas subsidiaries across CEE. Whilst political and the €4.2 billion Project Poseidon, respectively. concerns remain in both countries, investors are being Similar to the UK, Ireland’s deleveraging story has rewarded for their activity. now shifted from larger commercial real estate KPMG’s Portfolio Solutions Group are some of the (CRE) and corporate loans to addressing residential leading advisors in the European loan sale and bank mortgage non-performing loans (NPLs), granular CRE/ deleveraging marketplace. The strength and depth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) NPLs, and our member firm transaction experience across our importantly, addressing the profitability drag resulting European network is demonstrated in this report; we from low yield tracker mortgages. look forward to sharing our knowledge with you. Andrew Jenke Nicholas Colman Partner, EMA region leader Partner Portfolio Solutions Group Portfolio Solutions Group KPMG in the UK KPMG in the UK 3 © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. European Debt Sales 2016 | Table of contents 10 08 20 16 18 14 4 © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Table of 12 contents Trend watch Regulation and European banking 08 The UK and Ireland loan sale market 10 In focus: Italy 12 In focus: Spain 14 Greece and its impact across CESEE 16 Austria and its impact on CEE 18 Securitisation and the ABS market 20 Country profiles – Austria 24 – Belgium 26 – Bulgaria 28 – Croatia 30 – France 32 – Germany 34 – Greece 36 – Hungary 38 – Ireland 40 – Italy 42 – Netherlands 44 – Poland 46 – Portugal 48 – Romania 50 – Russia 53 – Scandinavia 54 – Serbia 56 – Slovenia 58 – Spain 60 – United Kingdom 62 Appendix Transaction tracker 2015: closed deals 66 22 Transaction tracker 2015: ongoing deals 70 Glossary 72 5 © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. 6 © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. Trend watch 7 © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. European Debt Sales 2016 | Trend watch Regulation and its effect on European banking While it remains the exception, rather than the rule, Bank resolution – Single Resolution Board for European regulators and supervisors to dictate One entity which would not object to banks simplifying strategic decisions to banks, the aggregate impact of and shrinking is the Single Resolution Board (SRB), regulation has become a decisive driver of strategy based in Brussels, which took on full powers from for most European banks. Regulators and supervisors 1 January 2016, and represents the second pillar of have a pervasive influence, which they exert through a Banking Union in the Eurozone (after SSM in 2014). combination of levers. The SRB, an EU agency, has a substantial mandate European bank regulation and supervision to resolve European banks in distress, either through forced transactions, transfer of assets to an asset The European Banking Authority (EBA) is the prudential management agency (AMA), or use of ‘bail-in’. As we authority for banking within the European Union (EU); it have seen recently in Portugal in December 2015, the has driven the creation of the European Single Rulebook, use of such powers by any banking supervisor can have a single set of prudential rules for financial institutions a devastating impact on investors. throughout the EU. Systemically important banks also need to comply with rules issued by the G20 Financial Political Dynamics Stability Board (FSB) and in many cases the Federal European banking regulation has entered the political Reserve in the United States (US). Since November arena several times in recent months. In addition to 2014, all significant Eurozone credit institutions are Portugal, this has particularly been the case in Italy, directly supervised by the ECB Single Supervision where the government, on 28 January 2016, announced Mechanism (SSM), while UK banks continued to be a guarantee scheme for senior tranches of securitised supervised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) portfolios of NPLs. Our initial estimate is that this and Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). scheme will improve prices on NPL trades, by between The SSM’s top priority for 2016 is to review Business 3-5% from a bank’s perspective. The economic benefit Model and Profitability Risk. It will challenge banks comes primarily from favourable funding rates for the to prove that they can create capital, sustainably, even SPV which issues the notes. in a low yield environment. It is also very concerned With political and economic turmoil in the emerging by high NPL ratios in several markets and is starting to markets of making headlines over the past year, push banks for reduction targets. In parallel, the SSM European banks with operations and exposure in CEE is performing a Targeted Review of Internal Models are closely monitoring the situation including the trend (TRIM), to probe risk weights across the sector. This is in NPLs. Should uncertainty increase and risk aversion expected to drive an increase in Risk-Weighted Assets become a common theme across the CEE banking (RWAs), and as capital intensity rises, ROE falls. sector, there may be a re-pricing of the financial market, Synthesizing all regulation and supervision is an which could increase the funding costs of banks with extremely complex task. How does it, in aggregate, CEE exposure. impact European banks’ strategy? Our view is that regulators are encouraging European banks to simplify and shrink. The costs of being large or complex are steadily ratcheting up, through higher Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) capital requirements (imposed by the SSM) and G-SIB buffers required by the FSB. Many banks conclude that they could increase ROE and market capitalisation by scaling back or breaking up capital intensive units. 8 © 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. An uncertain Greek future The threat of “Brexit” In July 2015, after much negotiation, Greece reached an There has been much discussion of a British exit (Brexit) eleventh-hour agreement with the troika (the European from the Eurozone for several years. If a Brexit occurs, Commission, the European Central Bank, and the there may be longstanding implications for the UK as International Monetary Fund) to receive financial aid of well as the EU.
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