Bounded Rationality, Market Discipline, and Legal Policy
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Michigan Law Review Volume 101 Issue 2 2002 The Fable of Entry: Bounded Rationality, Market Discipline, and Legal Policy Avishalom Tor Boston University School of Law Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/mlr Part of the Antitrust and Trade Regulation Commons, Law and Economics Commons, and the Supreme Court of the United States Commons Recommended Citation Avishalom Tor, The Fable of Entry: Bounded Rationality, Market Discipline, and Legal Policy, 101 MICH. L. REV. 482 (2002). Available at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/mlr/vol101/iss2/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Michigan Law Review at University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Michigan Law Review by an authorized editor of University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE FABLE OF ENTRY: BOUNDED RATIONALITY, MARKET DISCIPLINE, AND LEGAL POLICY Avishalom Tor* TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 484 I. THE PUZZLES OF ENTRY ................................... ......................... 488 A. The Assumption of Entrant Rationality: Empirical Findings vs. Economic Theory ............................................ 488 1. The First Puzzle: The Prevalence ofNeg ative Net Present Value Entry ....................................................... 490 2. The Second Puzzle: Entrants' Insensitivity to Predictors of Future Profitability ................................... 492 .3. The Third Puzzle: An Inferior Average Performance of Startup Entrants ................................... 494 B. Can the Rationality Assumption be Salvaged? ................... 497 1. Maintaining the Rationality Assumption: Windows of Opportunity, Limited Information, and the Fruits of Learning ...................................................................... 497 2. Modifyingthe Rationality Assumption: MaximizingEx pected Utility with Negative Net Present Values ................................................................. 501 II. A BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS OF ENTRY DECISIONMAKING ..... 503 A. Solving the First Puzzle: The Processes of Entrants' Overconfidence ...................................................................... 504 1. Optimistic Bias ................................................................ 505 2. The Desirability Bias and Related Phenomena ............ 508 3. The Illusion of Control ................................................... 512 B. Solving the Second Puzzle: The Side Effects of Entrants' Overoptimism ....................................................... 514 "' Lecturer, Boston University School of Law. Fellow, Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business, Harvard Law School. Fellow, Program on Negotiation, Harvard Law School. LL.B., B.A. 1996, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; LL.M. 1998, S.J.D. candidate, Harvard. - Ed. This research was supported by fellowships from the Olin Center for Law, Economics, and Business, and the Program on Negotiation, Harvard Law School. I thank Jennifer Arlen, Max Bazerman, Assaf Hamdani, Louis Kaplow, Sarah Levine, Paul Slovic, and the editors for valuable comments. Jamie Byrnes provided helpful research assistance. Special thanks to Christine Jolls for providing extensive and most valuable comments on this Article. 482 November 2002] Th e Fable of Entry 483 1. Optimistic Bias ................................................................ 514 2. Desirability Biases ........................................................... 515 3. The Illusion of Control ................................................... 517 4. Underestimating the Importance ofIndirect Effects in Competitive Settings .................................................... 517 C. Solving the Third Puzzle: All Entry is Not the Same ........ 520 1. The Intensity of Preferences ........................................... 520 2. Judgmental Ambiguity.................................. .................. 524 III. THE CONSEQUENCES OF ENTRANT-BOUNDED RATIONALITY ............................................................................... 531 A. How the Bounded Rationalityof Entrants Transfo rms the Competitive Landscape .................................................. 531 B. The Limited Efficacy of Financier Gate Keeping .............. 534 C. The Consequences of Boundedly Rational Innovative Entry ..................... .................................................................. 537 1. Bounded Rationalityand Innovative Entry. ................. 537 2. The Consequences of Innovative Entry .............. .......... 540 IV. EVALUATING ENTRY AFRESH ................................................... 543 A. The Social Costs and Benefits ofBound edly Rational Entry ....................................................................................... 543 B. Regulating Negative Expected Value Entry?............ .......... 545 C. Antitrust Law and Boundedly Rational Entry................... 548 1. General Conclusions: Entry and Market Power in Antitrust. ........................................................................... 548 2. Predatory Pricing: Entryand Recoupment..... ............. 552 3. Horizontal Mergers: Entry in the Merger ......... ... .................................. .............. 555 Guidelines . ...... V. BOUNDED RATIONALITY IN MARKETS: LESSONS FOR LEGAL POLICY .............................................................................. 560 A. The Prevalence of Bounded Rationality in Legally Relevant Market Settings .................................................. .... 560 B. The Limits ofAr guments.Relying on Markets to Eliminate Bounded Rationality ............................................ 561 C. Some Broader Lessons fo r Legal Analyses of Market Behavior ................................................................................. 563 1. When Should Legal Analyses ofMarket Behavior Take Bounded Rationality into Account? .................... 563 2. How Should Legal Analyses of Market Behavior Take Bounded Rationality into Account? .................... 565 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 567 484 Michigan Law Review [Vol. 101:482 INTRODUCTION Legal scholars have recently advanced a behavioral approach to the law and economics school of thought in an attempt to improve its external validity and predictive power.1 The hallmark of this new ap proach is the replacement of the perfectly rational actor with a "boundedly rational" decisionmaker who, apart from being affected by emotion and motivation, has only limited cognitive resources.2 To function effectivelyin a complex :world,boundedly rational individuals must rely on cognitive heuristics - simplifying mental shortcuts - that inevitably lead people to make some systematic decision errors; as a result, their behavior necessarily deviates from that predicted by ra tional actor models.3 1. Christine Jolls et al., A Behavioral Approach to Law and Economics, 50 STAN. L. REV. 1471 (1998) (offeringa broad vision of how law and economics could be improved by increasing its attention to insights about actual human behavior); Russell B. Korobkin & Thomas S. Ulen, Law and Behavioral Science: Removing the Rationality Assumption from Law and Economics, 88 CAL. L. REV. 1051 (2000) (examining the role of the rational actor in law and economics and suggesting replacing it with a behaviorally informed actor). 2. The term "bounded rationality" is used here broadly, encompassing the major find ings of behavioral decision research over the last thirtyyears on the deviations of actual hu man behavior from rational models due to the limitations of human information processing abilities and the effects of motivation and emotion on human cognition. For instructive re views of this enormous literature, see, for example, Colin Camerer, Individual Decision Making, in 1 THE HANDBOOK OF EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS 587 (John H. Kagel & Alvin E. Roth eds., 1995); Robyn M. Dawes, Behavioral Decision Making and Judgment, in THE HANDBOOK OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY 497 (Daniel T. Gilbert et al. eds., 4th ed. 1998). The concept of bounded rationality was originally developed by Herbert A. Simon. See Herbert A. Simon, A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice, 69 Q.J. ECON. 99 (1956); Herbert A. Simon, Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment, 63 PSYCHOL. REV. 129 (1958); see also HERBERT A. SIMON, REASON IN HUMAN AFFAIRS 17-23 (1983). In Simon's termi nology, however, bounded rationality denoted only the cognitive limitations of the human mind. Contrast Jolls et al.'s depiction of bounded rationality as only one of three "bounds" differentiatingactual human behavior from the rational actor (the other two being bounded self-interest and bounded willpower, but without reference to the broader effectsof motiva tion and emotion on cognition). Jolls et al., supra note 1, at 1476-79. 3. See, e.g., Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 185 SCIENCE 1124, 1124 (1974), reprinted in JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY: HEURISTICS AND BIASES 3 (Daniel Kahneman et al.eds. , 1982) (stating, in an early formula tion of the authors' highly influential "heuristics and biases" research paradigm, that: "[P]eople rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce the complex task of assessing probabilities and predicting values to simpler judgmental