Elections in At the crossroad of peace and stability

Martin Wählisch June 2009

• Next Parliamentary will be held on June 7th, 2009. • Since the last elections in 2005, the Lebanese political system has been under constant domestic and international strains. • The upcoming elections will be a challenging test for Lebanon, and a milestone in the strengthening of Lebanon’s democratic institutions. • Whether a crisis will immediately take hold after the elections is not yet definite, but given past experiences it is not completely unlikely.

“When ’s pitted roads are getting done, opponent is the coalition March 8, which it’s election time.” This common saying can includes the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shi’ite often be heard from the capital’s taxi drivers group Hizbollah. these days. With the Parliamentarian ballot votes scheduled for June 7th, Lebanese parties Parties and Candidates have spread their campaign billboards all around the streets of the country. After years The race between the two rivaling blocs March of conflict, the hope is high that Lebanon will 14 and March 8 is tight. With 128 seats head towards more stability and unity in the needed to be filled, 702 candidates from 26 next years. districts registered until the deadline at the beginning of April - the highest number of Former Elections nominees ever in Lebanese history.

Since the last elections, which took place after March 14 the withdrawal of Syrian’s troops in 2005, the political system has been under constant March 14, named after the date of the Cedar domestic and international strain. In November Revolution against 30 years of Syrian military 2007, when the term of the 11th President of occupation in Lebanon, comprises a strong Lebanon, Emile Lahoud, ended, the country coalition of various parties such as the was nearly on the brink of a civil-war again. Lebanese , the Progressive Under mediation of the Amir of Qatar, the Socialist Party, , Lebanese main political groups finally reached an Social Democratic Party Kataeb, the National agreement in Doha in May 2008 forming a Liberal Party, the Independence Movement, the new cross-party government. Tripoli Bloc, the Democratic Left Movement, Lebanon has been so far run by a national the Democratic Renewal Movement, the unity government, in which the pro-western Armenian Social Democrat Hunchakian Party, March 14 faction has the upper hand. Its major the Armenian Democratic Liberal Ramgavar

Party, the Lebanese Bloc, and the Free Shiite Party, the Lebanese Democratic Party, the Movement. Nasserite Unification Movement, the Solidarity Party, El Marada, the Arab Democratic Party, Most prominently, the Lebanese Future the , the Union Party, the Islamic Movement is lead by , the son of the Unification Movement, the National Dialogue assassinated former Prime Minister of Lebanon. Party, and the . Hariri is listed by Forbes as one of the wealthiest people in the world, running the Head of the is Michel Saudi Oger construction conglomerate, being Aoun, a former commander leading the board member of the Saudi Investment Bank, Christian forces in the final years Lebanon's and now heading Lebanon's largest Sunni civil-war. The Christian Maronite, who has Muslim political party. previously been a firm advocate for the disarmament of Hizbollah's militia in line with Although united since the 2005 parliamentary the US- and French UN Security Council election to end Damascus interference in Resolution 1559, surprised political fellows Lebanese affairs, March 14 struggles with when he collaborated with the March 8 gaining internal compromises. One of the movement after returning back from exile in greatest opponents are of the May 2005. Analysts suspect the reason lay in left-wing Progressive Socialist Party and Samir the strategic step of Aoun to overcome his Geagea of the Lebanese Forces. Jumblatt is political isolation after his return, and his aim known for shifting his political allegiances in to get into a better position through Hizbollah order to protect the long-term interests of the instead of fighting within March 14. . Equally, Geagea is defending the needs of the Lebanese Christian community against The , short for Lebanese dangers and threats. Resistance Detachments (Afwaj al- Muqawamah al-Lubnaniyyah) as well as However, March 14 launched a joint 14 point meaning “hope” in Arabic, exists as a military plan for the elections putting the protection of wing and Islamic political organization since Lebanon from Israeli attacks and the retrieval 1975. chairs the party being also of through the full execution of the Speaker of the of Lebanon. In the UN Resolution 1701 in the first place. The 2008 Berri shut down the Parliament alliance also demands a full disarmament of all postponing its sessions, which was seen as a groups, a termination of the disagreement with maneuver to hinder the election of an anti- , and a full commitment to refuse the Syrian President by the . resettlement of Palestinians in Lebanon. Moreover, the bloc highlights the need of Hizbollah, literally the “party of God”, regards socio-economical reforms, but also touches on itself as the legitimate resistance movement in gender and environmental issues. Lebanon against Israel. The Shi'a Islamic paramilitary organization is still listed as a March 8 terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department. In Doha, , the Founded after a mass political rally by Hizbollah chief of the armed movement, managed to in rejection to disarmament and to express gain one-third of the government ministry gratitude to Syria, this alliance has been, to this posts strengthening Hizbollah's position within point, the main opposition in the Lebanese the Lebanese power structures. Having Parliament. The alliance consists, besides Hizbollah in the Lebanese government, and Hizbollah, of the Free Patriotic Movement, the thereby legitimizing its role, have caused Amal Movement, the Armenian Revolutionary serious concerns in Israel. Federation, the Skaff Bloc, the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, In its electoral program Hizbollah declares that the Popular Nasserite Organization, the Tawhid Lebanon should no longer be seen as an arena,

- 2 - and obliges all to deal with them with the Meanwhile, Israel is conducting its largest necessary seriousness and responsibility. military training exercise since 1961 at the end However, Nasrallah recently announced that of May until the beginning week of June. A only if the current Hizbollah-led opposition series of armed forces and emergency services wins the elections, it will form a national unity drills are expected to take place near to the government with all parties; otherwise it will Lebanese border. Hizbollah is dealing with refuse any participation. these maneuvers with “readiness and alertness", as the Resistance announced. Arguing against “Zionist aggression” and the attempt of the U.S. to influence the region, As Israel and Lebanon are still officially Hizbollah furthermore calls in its election remaining in state of war, the relations charter for political, socio-economical and between both countries are difficult. The financial reforms. It therefore demands, for Lebanese Government just filed a complaint to instance, the reintroduction of a Ministry of the United Nations over alleged Israeli spy Planning submitting ten or five-year plans for networks operating in Lebanon. the various sectors. Additionally, the group stresses the need of a decentralized New Election Law administration, a reform of the judicial system and the education sector. The movement also In addition, the elections will be the first to be insists on a review of certain laws on held under the new elections laws being a key publications and media. Similarly, the party demand of the Doha consensus. Revisions of emphasizes that the privacy of citizens has to the electoral law have always been sensitive in be protected through banning indiscriminate Lebanon where 11 recognized confessional wire-tapping of their telephone calls – all groups compete to safeguard their political measures, which have been used to uncover interests. Hizbollah’s activities. In accordance with the Lebanese Constitution, Since the last months, March 8 is increasingly all parliamentary seats are divided equally seen as an alternative. Hizbollah celebrated a between Christians and Muslims. The new major political triumph after the release of four election law of 2008 again formally sub-divides Lebanese generals, which have been detained the number of representatives into four Islamic for nearly four years in connection with the and seven Christian confessional branches. In murder of former Premier Rafiq Hariri. Due to a this regard, the new electoral law increases survey of the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation at confessional and sectarian divisions, which is Lebanese universities from last July, Hizbollah seen by some political analysts as harmful for a leader Nasrallah also enjoys great popularity united Lebanon in the long run. among non-Shia students. Nevertheless, there are some achievements Further turbulences into the election time such as holding of the elections on only one brought an article of the German weekly “Der day, more transparency for campaign Spiegel” implicating the involvement of financing, and the attempt for greater equal Hizbollah agents in Hariri’s assassination. “They media coverage, as well as the creation of a are scared because a win for the opposition Supervisory Commission. There will be also means that the systematic program of supplementary safeguards against electoral targeting, besieging and isolating the fraud ranging from transparent ballot boxes to resistance in Lebanon in an attempt to dissolve the inking of fingers. However, voters can still it, has failed." Nasrallah commented on Al use any piece of paper as a ballot, even Jazeera. has dismissed the report as napkins. This will most likely perpetuate the being based on "fabrications" accusing Israel practice of political groups in the past to of interfering in the elections. distribute prepared ballots discouraging voters from making their own choices as well as

- 3 - undermining the secrecy of the vote. In these conflicts in the Mediterranean region have a elections there will also not be any out-of- direct impact on the security and economy of country voting yet, which leaves out the large the European Union. Following the EU- abroad, which mostly fled Lebanon Association Agreement and a signed during the Lebanese civil-war. Action Plan of 2007, the EU therefore dedicated 4 million Euros to implement the Security Concerns Lebanese electoral reform.

Given the fact that four Members of Parliament The level of direct external interference in have been assassinated over the last four years, Lebanon’s parliamentary elections can concerns also remain about the security meanwhile no longer be termed as low. U.S. environment during the election period. It has Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton been only nine months since a Lebanese visited Beirut in early May, expressing her wish politician was killed. As the International for open and fair elections. Clinton pledged Foundation for Electoral Systems in its support “the voices of moderation”, and hold Lebanese Election Violence Risk Assessment up the strong bilateral cooperation with the Project analyzes, particularly Tripoli in the North . Lately, U.S. Vice of Lebanon, Baabda in the Mountain region, President Joe Biden concluded a seven-hour Jezzine in the South, and Zahle in the Bakaa visit to Lebanon delivering a message to the area bear the risk of political and confessional Lebanese President Michel Suleiman from U.S. conflicts. Reasons are intense political President Barack Obama underlining the need competition, the presence of influential seats, for a democratic and free Lebanon. Biden also unrepresentative candidates, as well as a mentioned that the United States would higher likelihood of pressure or bribery. evaluate its assistance programs based on the Though, to which extent security concerns composition of the new government and the could prevent candidates from campaigning policies it advocates. Since 2006, the U.S. has effectively can hardly be estimated. The weeks spent $1.3 billion on Lebanon, including more and months after the elections will show, than $400 million in military aid for the whether violence will occur breaking once Western-leaning government of Prime Minister again the country's fragile stability. , which has also the strong backing of U.S. ally Saudi Arabia. Washington Election Observation is worried that the Hizbollah-led opposition could gain more influence, which is seen as a A couple of observer missions are ready to be threat by Israel. deployed to Lebanon. The European Union has announced to send 90 experts assessing Aftermath of the Elections voting, counting and the tabulation of results. The EU also has long-term observers to A couple of days away from Lebanon's ballots, examine the campaign period and pre-election many scenarios for the aftermath of the preparations around the country. A delegation elections are possible. March 8 has been from the European Parliament is expected to playing an influential role in the government arrive the day of the elections. Besides, the and some analysts forecast it could emerge European Union, the Carter Center, and the victorious in the June polls. Other political National Democratic Institute will also monitor observers expect that the new government will the events. be broadly similar in shape to the present , although the balance might tip Lebanon is of vital importance for the EU in its slightly. Lastly, Lebanon could end up with a European Neighbourhood Policy. In its annual unity government of March 8 and March 14, Progress Report in April this year, External where Hizbollah not only holds the one-third Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero- blocking veto power of Doha, but even half of Waldner stressed once again that violent the posts in the Cabinet. Whether a crisis will

- 4 - immediately take hold after the elections is not mixed with the perception that there is no yet definite, but given past experiences it is not single political figure committed only to the completely unlikely. . Also the unknown faces in the election race, though there only a few, are Generally, it appears that Lebanese political very much suspected just to rule in favor of the parties are not divided by strong programmatic their own family circles’ wealth. differences. The main diverging issues that Consequently, the political parties are seeking remain are questions of disarmament and to mobilize voters to increase the turnout for Lebanon’s national defense strategy, as well as the elections. Many of Lebanese expatriates are details concerning the authorities of the Special being flown home with tickets paid by the Tribunal of Lebanon. As a matter of fact, parties to vote in contested districts. As the religious actors of all confessions are New York Times recently documented, significantly involved in political debates. In this especially in competitive regions votes are regard, confessional allegiance can be seen as being bought with cash or other rewarding the most decisive feature beyond pure power services. considerations. In any case, the upcoming elections will be a Given that Lebanon’s President Michel challenging test for Lebanon. The period Suleiman has been chosen in Doha last year to leading to the ballot votes and the results of please all parties, it is predicted that the future the elections will reveal the stability the government will keep him in office to complete parliamentary Republic. If the process ends in a his six-year non-renewable term. In the past, he peaceful outcome, it will be a milestone in the has been successfully adept at reading power strengthening of Lebanon’s democratic shifts, anticipating popular sentiment and institutions. balancing competing interests. In the streets of Beirut these days, it can be Time for Change? inevitably sensed that the country's future and the region's stability are once again at a As a topic of critique among the public crossroad. Lebanon has already a winding continues the frustration that within all parties journey of gaining freedom and independence the old elites from the civil-war era will stay in behind it. These elections will show how much power without any fresh spirit and vision for longer the way is for Lebanon to reach the country. This lack of enthusiasm comes consolidated peace. with the opinion that nothing will change,

j~êíáå=t®ÜäáëÅÜI=ÅìêêÉåíäó=Ä~ëÉÇ=áå=_ÉáêìíI=áë=pÉåáçê=oÉëÉ~êÅÜÉê=~í=íÜÉ=`ÉåíÉê=Ñçê=mÉ~ÅÉ=jÉÇá~íáçå=çÑ= íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=råáîÉêëáíó=sá~Çêáå~I=eìãÄçäÇíJsá~Çêáå~=pÅÜççä=çÑ=dçîÉêå~åÅÉ=áå=_ÉêäáåK= = Contact: Ingrid Roß, Referat Naher/Mittlerer Osten und Nordafrika, Hiroshimastraße 17, 10785 Berlin, E-mail: [email protected], Fax: +49-(0)30-26935-7413, Tel.: +49-(0)30-26935-7322 Briefing papers as well as further information about the work of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung in the MENA region can be found online: www.fes.de/nahost

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