National Risk Profile 2016 an All Hazard Overview of Potential Disasters and Threats in the Netherlands the National Network of Safety and Security Analysts
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National Risk Profile 2016 An All Hazard overview of potential disasters and threats in the Netherlands The National Network of Safety and Security Analysts National Risk Profile 2016 An All Hazard overview of potential disasters and threats in the Netherlands The National Network of Safety and Security Analysts Colophon The National Risk Profile (NRP) has been compiled by the National Network of Safety and Security Analysts on the instructions of the National Steering Committee for National Safety and Security (ANV). The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) General Intelligence and Security Service of the Netherlands (AIVD) The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) The Netherlands Institute of International Relations 'Clingendael' Erasmus University Rotterdam, Institute of Social Studies (ISS) © RIVM 2016 This publication may be quoted from on the condition that the source is acknowledged: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the title of the publication and the year of publication. Published by: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Postbus 1 | 3720 BA Bilthoven The Netherlands www.rivm.nl Contents Summary 9 Foreword 17 1 Introduction 19 1.1 The National Safety and Security Strategy and the National Risk Profile 19 1.2 Themes and risk categories 20 1.3 To whom is the NRP intended? 21 1.4 How did the NRP come about? 22 1.5 Overview of the document 22 2 Methodological rationale 23 2.1 The concept of risk 23 2.2 Risk assessment and National Security 23 2.3 The scoring methodology: risks in a comparative perspective 26 2.4 Presentation of risks 28 2.5 Overview of the various aspects per risk category 28 2.6 Analysis of autonomous developments 30 3 Natural disasters 33 3.1 Risk categories 33 3.1.1 Flood 34 3.1.2 Extreme weather 34 3.1.3 Drought and heat 34 3.1.4 Wildfires 34 3.1.5 Earthquakes 34 3.1.6 Solar storm 34 3.2 Flood 35 3.2.1 Risk 35 3.2.2 Capabilities 35 3.2.3 Determining factors and impact 37 3.2.4 In perspective 40 3.3 Extreme weather 40 3.3.1 Risk 40 3.3.2 Capabilities 41 3.3.3 Determining factors and impact 42 3.3.4 In perspective 42 3.4 Wildfire 44 3.4.1 Risk 44 3.4.2 Capabilities 44 3.4.3 Determining factors and impact 45 3.4.4 In perspective 45 National Risk Profile 2016 | 5 3.5 Earthquakes 47 3.5.1 Risk 47 3.5.2 Capabilities 48 3.5.3 Determining factors and impact 48 3.5.4 In perspective 52 3.6 Conclusion and considerations 52 4 Threats to public health and the environment 55 4.1 Risk categories 55 4.1.1 Environmental disasters 55 4.1.2 Food crises 55 4.1.3 Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) 56 4.1.4 Infectious diseases (human, animal diseases and zoonoses) 56 4.2 Animal disease and zoonosis 57 4.2.1 Risk 57 4.2.2 Capabilities 57 4.2.3 Determining factors and impact 58 4.2.4 In perspective 63 4.3 Human infectious diseases 63 4.3.1 Risk 63 4.3.2 Capabilities 64 4.3.3 Determining factors and impact 64 4.3.4 In perspective 68 4.3.5 Conclusion and considerations 68 5 Major accidents 71 5.1 Risk categories 71 5.2 Nuclear disasters 71 5.2.1 Risk 71 5.2.2 Capabilities 72 5.3 Chemical incidents 80 5.3.1 Risk 80 5.3.2 Capabilities 81 5.3.3 Determining factors and impact 82 5.3.4 In perspective 83 5.4 Transport accidents 87 5.4.1 Risk 87 5.4.2 Capabilities 88 5.4.3 Determining factors and impact 89 5.5 Conclusion and considerations 90 6 Disruption of critical infrastructure 93 6.1 Risk categories 93 6.1.1 Independent disruption of critical processes 93 6.1.2 Common causes 94 6.1.3 Cascading effects 95 6.1.4 Determining factors and impact 95 6.2 Independent disruption to critical infrastructure 95 6.2.1 Power supplies 95 6.2.2 ICT and telecommunications 98 6.2.3 Drinking water supplies 101 6.2.4 Payment and securities transactions 101 6.3 Common causes 102 6.4 Cascading effects 103 6 | National Risk Profile 2016 6.5 Developments 107 6.6 Capabilities of resilient critical infrastructure 108 6.7 Conclusion and considerations 109 7 Cyber threats 113 7.1 Risk categories 113 7.1.1 Interconnectedness and impact 113 7.1.2 Digital sabotage 114 7.1.3 Disruption Internet 114 7.1.4 Cyber espionage 114 7.1.5 Cyber crime 114 7.2 Developments 115 7.3 Capabilities 116 7.4 Determining factors and impact 118 7.5 Complexity and uncertainty 119 7.6 Digital sabotage 119 7.7 Disruption Internet 122 7.8 Cyber espionage 124 7.9 Conclusion and considerations 127 8 Subversion, extremism and terrorism 131 8.1 Risk categories 131 8.1.1 Large-scale public order disturbances 131 8.1.2 Subversion of the democratic system and open society 132 8.1.3 Extremism and terrorism 132 8.2 Subversion of the democratic system and open society 133 8.2.1 Risk 133 8.2.2 Capabilities 134 8.2.3 Determining factors and impact 134 8.2.4 In perspective 138 8.3 Extremism and terrorism 138 8.3.1 Risk 138 8.3.2 Capabilities 141 8.3.3 Determining factors and impact 141 8.3.4 In perspective 146 8.4 Conclusion and considerations 146 9 Geopolitical threats 149 9.1 Risk categories 149 9.1.1 Shifting power relations 149 9.1.2 Tensions between the great powers 150 9.1.3 Resource scarcity 150 9.1.4 Selection of developed risk categories 150 9.2 Increasing tensions between the great powers 150 9.2.1 Risk 150 9.2.2 Determining factors and impact 150 9.2.3 In perspective 153 9.3 Resource scarcity 153 9.3.1 Risk 153 9.3.2 Scenario variant and impact 154 9.3.3 In perspective 156 9.3.4 Capabilities 156 9.4 Conclusion and considerations 157 National Risk Profile 2016 | 7 10 Financial and economic threats 159 10.1 Risk categories 159 10.2 Destabilisation of the financial system 159 10.2.1 Risk 159 10.2.2 Capabilities 160 10.2.3 Destabilisation of the financial system scenario variant 162 10.3 Cyber crime in the financial sector 162 10.3.1 Risk 162 10.3.2 Capabilities 162 10.3.3 Impact and scenario variant 162 10.4 Other economic crime 165 10.4.1 Risk 165 10.4.2 Capabilities 165 10.4.3 Scenario variants 165 10.5 Conclusion and considerations 169 11 Autonomous developments 171 11.1 Ecological developments 171 11.2 Demographic-societal developments 174 11.3 International-political developments 175 11.4 International-economic developments 176 11.5 Technological developments 178 12 Conclusion and considerations 181 12.1 Introduction 181 12.2 Risk diagram 181 12.3 Impact 183 12.3.1 Overall impact 183 12.3.2 Territorial security 184 12.3.3 Physical safety 184 12.3.4 Economic security 184 12.3.5 Ecological security 185 12.3.6 Social and political stability 185 12.4 Developments and possible threats for the coming years 185 12.5 In conclusion 187 13 Annexes 189 Annex 1. Classification of themes and risk categories 189 Annex 2. The National Network of Safety and Security Analysts 192 Annex 3. Risk diagram 194 8 | National Risk Profile 2016 Summary The National Safety and Security Strategy In order to determine the seriousness (impact) of a and the National Risk Profile potential disaster or crisis, these national security interests have been developed into a number of criteria. The National Risk Profile (NRP) provides an overview In the case of, for example, 'physical safety', attention is of the risks of various disasters, crises and threats with paid to the number of fatalities, seriously wounded and a possible destabilising effect on the Dutch society. chronically ill and the lack of basic needs such as food, The NRP is part of the National Safety and Security drinking water and power. An assessment is made for Strategy which the government uses to investigate each type of disaster or threat as to how likely it is that it which disasters, crises or threats can jeopardise our will occur. national security and what can be done about them. Due to the fact that the risks of various sorts of disasters, The NRP also describes the capabilities which are crises and threats are assessed in the same way, the risks available to manage the risks and identifies the link can be compared. Consequently, the NRP places the risks and the mutual effects between various risks. As a in a comparative perspective. consequence, the NRP constitutes a basis for the next step, which is the capability analysis. The capability The insight into, and the overview of, the risks from the analysis involves an investigation to establish which NRP enables the government to equip Dutch society capabilities may have to be strengthened or developed more effectively to deal with (the threat of) potential and what kind of measures are required. That falls disasters and crises and also choose the right priorities. outside the scope of the NRP. The most important target group of the NRP is therefore the ministries, which are united in the National Steering Societal disruption exists if one or more of the five Committee for National Safety and Security, and the national security interests is seriously compromised: national cabinet.