The PineBridge Global Multi-Asset Series Multi-Asset Global PineBridge The are unlikely to manifest. Such fear may itself soon crest and fall, like a Roman candle. a Roman like fall, and crest soon itself may fear Such to manifest. unlikely are which of lockdowns, fear the given April since pronounced been has safety toward rotation markets, within wave. Nonetheless variant Delta recent this during to rise continuing both safety and risk with disruption, market and economic less wave generating is Each to encourage vaccination. push greater even an as well as requirements, mask more and distancing social including emphasized, to be likely are of lockdowns efforts all governments, For pandemic. this with cope and to adjust how learned have all hospitals including organizations non-profit and governments, individuals, Businesses, that. just to do prepared better now we’re all Fortunately, countries. most for of action course policy likely most the be to seems through slogging of this, of all spite in and holding, is wall vaccination The dramatically lower. fatalities and of hospitalization incidence the with mild very to be tend symptoms inducing, fear- are themselves cases breakthrough While unvaccinated. the from exclusively almost occurring and waves, Covid prior below substantially remained yet a bit, rose fatalities UK while fatalities record experienced Indonesia where Indonesia, vaccinated poorly the and UK vaccinated well the both for of days number same the at simultaneously peaked Cases week. past this in crashing then days, 40 for skyrocketing cases with UK, the in repeating now is pattern This crashing. subsequently cases with later, days 40 just cresting speed, record at India through ripping candle, a Roman like looked has variant To Delta the date, open. economies their keeping and immunity, of natural acceptance ashrug, becoming is reaction the vaccines, to efficacious access without countries of emerging number increasing an In economies. shutter to again policymakers Western among appetite little is there of both, a combination or fatigue, learned, of lessons because whether of Asia, Outside lockdowns. drove unknown of the fear where pandemic, of the days earliest the since shifted has nations developed most in mood the are, flare-ups the as worrisome As drawdowns. of market risk the posing GDP of global portions material in lockdowns potential with to come, years many for condition endemic an to be out turn may to what react will others and policymakers how determining is challenge the , For world. of avaccinated dream Kodachrome year’s last than colorful or triumphant less far to be out turned has year pandemic second of this reality The country. of the areas high-risk at aimed is places public indoor in masks wearing to resume people vaccinated for Prevention and Control Disease for Centers the by call recent the US, the In susceptible. more even and unvaccinated remain that world of the portions large to the addition in That’s systems). immune compromised weight, (age, vulnerabilities same the with compounded vaccination, since been has it longer the likely increasingly are cases These cases. breakthrough called so with infected, become may people vaccinated even that indicating evidence new with Covid, waves of successive about concerns heightened has variant Delta the of flare-up The CFA, J.Kelly, Michael Learning To Live Pandemic Endemic An With Teams Investment Global Diverse From Our Views Monthly Investment Strategy Insights MULTI-ASSET STRATEGY Global Head of Multi-Asset Head Global INVESTMENT STRATEGYINVESTMENT INSIGHTS

INVESTMENT STRATEGY INSIGHTS and fixed income teams meet to meet teams income fixed and equities, our global multi-asset, month, investment leaders from a Once areresolved. differences as these ahead moves substantial foreshadow also they but markets, do differences of opinion make PineBridge believes that not only About This Report and convictions across the firm. firm. the across convictions and views class asset of our snapshots with along month of topic the the on insight by providing debates and discussions those reflects report This viewpoints. diverse their MARKET LINE August 2021 Conviction Score (CS) and Investment Views The Conviction Scores shown below reflect the investment team’s views on how portfolios should be positioned for the next six to nine months. 1=bullish, 5=bearish, and the change from the prior month is indicated in parentheses.

Global Economy Stance: We still believe global GDP growth will remain well above average over the next 12 months, but see reasons for a possible downgrade of our score in the fall. Markus Schomer, CFA Chief Economist, Outlook: Despite rising Covid infections in the US and Europe, hospitalizations and fatalities remain Global Economic Strategy far below previous levels, suggesting a low risk of re-closings. The US inflation surge continued in June, but inflation is very much a US problem that doesn’t seem to be spreading globally. The risk of a steeper fiscal cliff in the US remains elevated, but another spending package soon may be coming. CS 2.50 (unchanged) Finally, Fed chair Powell reassured Congress and markets that he is not in the early tapering camp, while the European Central Bank (ECB), with its new tweaked inflation target, is not likely to reduce its stimulus. Risks: instability is the currently biggest risk to the recovery. While fundamentals and policy don’t appear to be threatening the rebound, rallying bond markets and volatile suggest investors may be nervous about the Delta variant or US fiscal or monetary policy. A sharp equity market correction or a sharp bond market sell-off could affect business and consumer confidence and thus growth prospects over the summer or fall.

Rates The spread of the Covid Delta variant has caused a flight to safety in developed markets globally, with a in Treasuries. At the same time, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) posting its third Gunter Seeger, CFA straight massive surprise to the upside, the Federal Reserve has reacted swiftly by raising rates Portfolio Manager, Developed earlier in the dot plots, suggesting a taper program is coming sooner than later. The ECB, by contrast, Markets Investment Grade may purchase more bonds in the second half, which should have currency implications. The US bond market has seen a proliferation of volatile days, with the 10-year experiencing several 10-basis-point CS 4.00 (unchanged) moves in less than 24 hours. The driver appears to be a lack of liquidity, which will be exacerbated this summer as market participants take their first vacations in two years.

Credit Credit spreads widened in July – from +260 to over +300 in high (HY) and from near +70 to near +90 in investment grade (IG) – on fading optimism over growth, more modest inflation expectations, Steven Oh, CFA and a rise in Covid infections from the Delta variant. While the tail risks have increased, we do not Global Head of Credit expect a repeat of full or material shutdowns, even if cases continue to increase. Therefore, we and Fixed Income expect very strong, early-cycle fundamentals to remain intact. While valuations have improved, prices for most fixed-rate credits held steady as the drop in benchmark yields offset wider spreads. CS 2.75 (-0.50) From an excess return standpoint, we are more positive on credit spread valuations, hence the improvement in the conviction score back to a marginal pro-risk bias from a slightly defensive posture last month.

Currency (USD Perspective) The euro/US dollar relationship continues to take its cue from the two-year rate differential between US Treasuries and German Bunds, rather than the 10-year differential, implying the market is still Joseph Cuthbertson optimistic on the timing of the Fed’s taper. With the Delta variant putting the market on edge, the Senior Associate Sovereign US dollar and Japanese yen have benefited from their safe-haven status, the flattening yield curve, Analyst, Global Markets and overweight euro positioning. In emerging markets (EM), improving fiscal finances amid a sharp Fixed Income spike in nominal GDP growth, rising GDP deflators, and a sharp increase in tax inflows have been widely underestimated and underreported. In combination with rising current account surpluses and CS 2.75 (unchanged) record high foreign exchange (FX) reserves, many EM economies look very robust, and several EM currencies offer compelling value, including the Colombian peso, Chilean peso, Mexican peso, and the Brazilian real, with the latter two benefiting from central bank tightening.

Emerging Markets EM will continue to lead developed markets (DM) in overall growth and productivity gains, despite Fixed Income the challenges of an aging and more slowly expanding population. This ongoing view, extending well into 2022, supports our current bullish stance, with our “Bright Future” scenario is at 35%, Steve Cook “Fly High” at 5%, and our central “Cruise Along” scenario at 60%. We see sovereign balance sheets Managing Director, Co-Head of improving and corporate leverage expected to return to its lowest level since the 2008-2009 crisis. Emerging Markets Fixed Income The positive fundamental outlook and the speed of rebound post-Covid is leading to greater institutional inflows as the asset class firmly showed its robustness in 2020. We expect more USD EM (Sovereign and Corp.) strategic allocations to follow. CS 2.50 (unchanged) Local Markets (Sovereign) CS 2.25 (unchanged)

PineBridge Investments Investment Strategy Insights | 2 Multi-Asset We are a bit less bullish. Fading growth impulses and less-generous monetary support over the next nine to 18 months, together with asset prices that offer less reward for taking risk, all dampen Deanne Nezas our enthusiasm. Global fundamental data continues to improve overall; yet, we are beyond the Managing Director, Portfolio rapid recovery phase and regional divergence is becoming more pronounced, driven by China’s Manager, Global Multi-Asset deceleration and the sequencing of vaccine availability. Vaccinations continue to gain traction in Europe. Japan is next, while most emerging markets fall further behind. After maintaining a decidedly bullish stance for the past 12 months, we are dialing our Conviction Score down from 2.5 to 2.75, CS 2.75 (-0.25) edging closer to neutral.

Real Estate The focus on ESG has dramatically intensified over the past six to 12 months and the industry is grappling with how to measure social and governance factors, which had been largely neglected, Marc-Olivier Assouline and incorporate them into management and investment decisions alongside environmental Principal, Real Estate considerations. On the operational side, changing use patterns are exacerbating dramatic undersupply issues in logistics and the institutional rented residential sector, including senior living, and these sectors are consequently attracting the majority of investment capital. Risks include a resumption of increases in construction material costs and inflation-related interest rate increases, which could lead to notable value erosion should they materialize.

Global Equity A balanced, bottom-up portfolio has been key to delivering in this market, with various issues – the Delta variant, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, supply chains, etc. – causing Rob Hinchliffe, CFA . We look for the commentary accompanying second-quarter results to offer insights Managing Director, into the effects of these issues and into whether earnings revisions will remain positive. Despite Portfolio Manager, Head of valuation and volatility challenges, we have been able to uncover opportunities across financials, Sector Cluster Research - tech, and consumer staples with sufficient upside for the medium- to -term. Global Equities

CS 3.00 (unchanged)

Global Emerging We are keeping our score at 2.50, supported by positive earnings revisions. In China, consumer Markets Equity retailers saw strong growth in the first half on robust demand, but staples are under pressure due to rising raw material costs and limited opportunities to raise prices. In India, early Taras Shumelda second-quarter results paint an encouraging picture, with IT firms showing good topline growth Portfolio Manager, due to revival of global demand and banks reporting better-than-expected collections. Higher Global Equities commodity prices have boosted demand in Latin America and in EMEA, which also has been helped by EU stimulus. While EM companies have moved up the value chain, they do not benefit equally, making selection critical. CS 2.50 (unchanged)

Quantitative Research Our US Market Cycle Indicator (MCI) continued to fall from its March peak, mainly due to a yield curve that was 24 basis points (bps) flatter. Option-adjusted spreads on BBB credits tightened six Peter Fwu bps to 107 bps in June. The short ends of spreads in IG and HY looked rich. In industry selection, Quantitative Strategist, we liked cyclical sectors including energy, basic industry, and banking over the defensive utility and Quantitative Fixed Income communications sectors. Our global rates model forecasted slightly lower yield on slowing M2 growth and the favorable equity over Treasury yields. It continued to forecast a flatter curve. The rates view expressed in our G10 model portfolio was overweight global duration. It was about neutral in North America, but overweight Europe and underweight in Japan. Along the curve, we still see flattening and are overweight the long end.

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