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Clippings Friday, June 19, 2020 Braves.com

Major League celebrates Juneteenth

By Alyson Footer

In celebration of Juneteenth today, and its clubs will turn their focus to commemorating the day with activities aimed to continue the conversation about social justice and awareness.

Juneteenth is an annual holiday, celebrated on June 19 -- the day slavery officially ended in the United States in 1865 when Union troops finally delivered word to Galveston, Texas, that the Civil War had ended.

MLB Network will air "MLB Tonight: A Conversation on Friday" at 5:30 p.m. ET, hosted by Fran Charles and . The 90-minute special edition of MLB Tonight will cover issues around racial injustice and inequality in society and baseball, with insight from former and current players, including , and Cameron Maybin, in addition to Tony Reagins, MLB's executive vice president of baseball and softball development.

Additionally, several teams have planned programming to personalize the holiday for their fans. The Mariners will share a "Black Voices in Baseball Virtual Panel" with four of their players and broadcaster Dave Sims. The hour-long open talk with the players about their experiences in baseball and life will debut on the Mariners YouTube channel today at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT. The discussion will also air on mariners.com, as well as their Twitter and Facebook pages.

"We’re scared to say this. We’re nervous,” Dee Gordon said in a press release issued by the Mariners on Wednesday promoting the discussion. “The reason we’re nervous is we’ve been told our whole life and our whole careers to don’t say anything. Don’t ruffle any feathers. Don’t pretty much stand up for yourself as a man and for your family’s name."

"I’m proud to be a part of this,” J.P. Crawford said. “I’m proud to be playing alongside each and every one of my teammates right now. Coming up, we were one of the two brothers on the team, if that, so being a part of this has been something special."

The Commissioner's Office has enacted a series of action items as part of the process of the league evaluating its initial steps, specifically with regard to addressing issues on social justice, racial equality within the sport, and helping communities heal. Commissioner Rob Manfred recently issued a memo to employees, detailing Phase One of MLB's activation, many of which have already taken place, or with planning underway:

• MLB Diverse Business Partners Recovery Project: With a focus on Black-owned businesses, this program will financially support diverse businesses that have sustained damage as a result of riots/looting in recent weeks.

• Updated MLB Human Resources policies: As part of its background checks for positions that require law enforcement backgrounds, MLB will enhance its process to include consideration of any "excessive force" complaints against the prospective candidate to the extent that such information is available.

MLB will update its Workforce Diversity Policy Statement to state, in even stronger and more clear terms, that it does not and will not tolerate the unequal treatment, discrimination or harassment of employees based on race or color.

• Diversity & Inclusion Education & Resources: The league will continue providing employee-wide Unconscious Bias training and other D&I trainings on related topics.

• Charitable investments: In an effort led by heads of baseball operations from all 30 MLB Clubs, and as part of the MLB Draft, more than $1 million was committed across the following five organizations: Campaign Zero, Color of Change, Equal Justice Initiative, Foundation and the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund. The commitment is comprised of donations from each of the 30 Club leaders as well as matching funds from MLB and individual Club owners. While initial funding is connected to the MLB Draft event, additional efforts will be announced in the coming weeks.

• League-wide Pro Bono Program: MLB will develop and implement an organized MLB and Club employee skills-based volunteer effort (e.g., legal work and other disciplines) to assist community-based social justice organizations and Diverse Business Partners. • Dialogue, both internally and with the public, was a priority for the Commissioner’s Office when it was implementing its activation plan. Another component to the initiative is a new website, aimed to inform and educate on the topic of race, diversity and social justice. MLB has created an information and resources page, available to all.

• In an effort to support and show solidarity with all in the Black community, MLB has unveiled a new design on its logo. For the first time in its history, the colors on the black-and-white version of the logo are inverted, to present the silhouetted batter as black.

Subtle yet important symbolism and action continues to display MLB’s intent for social change, and, more importantly, signifies its belief that change can begin with everyone.

Examples of Juneteenth celebration highlights include:

• The Cubs will host a virtual discussion with Civil Rights activist Rev. Jesse Jackson and team employees this afternoon.

"We were trying to figure out a way to observe Juneteenth," said Julian Green, the Cubs' vice president of communications and community affairs. "We were looking to see how we could do it in an authentic way, especially for a large number of people who don't even know what Juneteenth is, who may not be aware. We thought the best approach would be helping people learn about it and educate people about it, versus doing a day off.

"And obviously, I couldn't think of a better person than probably one of the most prominent figures in the modern Civil Rights Movement in Jesse Jackson. We are just overjoyed that he would make time to provide his perspective on this moment, as well as how history, through slavery, may have played a role in some of what we're experiencing today."

• The Athletics will host "A Conversation About Race: Reflection & Action" today at 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT, with Tony Kemp and A’s vice president Taj Tashombe on IG Live. This is the first in a series of conversations on race via IG Live with current and former A’s players, prominent community members and celebrities who are from or call Oakland home.

• The White Sox will showcase digital artwork commemorating the day, designed by a local Black artist, Edo. The team will also provide educational material about the history of Juneteenth to its staff, and encourage the front office to spend the day learning and reflecting.

The Twins are sharing with staff information, primarily through video, to help educate on the significance of Juneteenth and share where some of the major celebrations are taking place. They will also post relevant kids worksheets on their web site (coloring page, word search types of pieces), in addition to lighting the ballpark in red, black and green today. Additionally, last week, the Pohlad family announced a commitment of $25 million to racial justice, bringing to bear resources of the Pohlad Family Foundation, Pohlad family members and Pohlad companies in a two-phased, community-based approach.

Braves agree with 1st-rounder Shuster, 2 others

By Mark Bowman

ATLANTA -- The Braves have signed first-round pick Jared Shuster and two of the three other players they selected in last week’s MLB Draft.

According to MLB.com’s Jim Callis, the Braves signed Shuster, outfielder Jesse Franklin and right-handed Spencer Strider on Monday. Callis reported Shuster and Franklin both signed below-slot deals. Strider agreed to a slot deal worth $451,800.

The Braves have not confirmed any of these signings.

Shuster agreed to a $2,197,500 signing bonus. This is $542,800 less than the bonus pool slot value assigned to the 25th overall pick this year. Franklin agreed to a bonus worth $497,500, or $101,600 less than the slot value assigned to his third-round selection.

With these three signings totaling $3,146,800, the Braves still have $981,000 within their bonus pool allotment. By going below slot with Shuster and Franklin, the Braves seemingly created ample flexibility to use in their attempt to sign fifth-round pick Bryce Elder, a right-handed pitcher who was looking to be picked in the third round.

The bonus pool allotments for third-round picks ranged from $577,000 to $857,400.

Shuster wasn’t widely projected to be a first-round selection, but the left-hander made a strong showing during last summer’s Cape Cod League and then further impressed while pitching for Wake Forest this year. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound lefty made some mechanical adjustments that added life to his , which went from 89-93 mph in 2019 to 91-95 mph in 2020.

Franklin helped Michigan advance to the College finals during his 2019 sophomore season, then missed this year’s coronavirus- shortened collegiate season because of a broken collarbone sustained while skiing last winter.

The 6-foot-1, 215 pound outfielder tallied 23 homers and produced a .520 slugging percentage over 425 at-bats for the Wolverines. He was named the 2018 Cape Cod League Offensive Player of the Year. He didn’t hit for power when he returned to the Cape in 2019, but this had more to do with a hamstring strain and didn’t damage the impression he made on Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown. Strider was not ranked by MLB Pipeline as one of the top 200 available players heading into this year’s Draft. The 6-foot, 195-pound right-hander had missed all of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he made just four starts before the pandemic shutdown ended the collegiate season in March.

Still, Strider caught the Braves’ attention when he returned to the mound this year by showing his fastball was once again resting around 95 mph and occasionally touching 97 mph. There are some concerns about the 21-year-old’s lack of a good breaking ball. But having totaled just 63 at the college level, there’s still room for Strider to add to his repertoire.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Rethinking the Braves’ schedule, if there is a season

By Gabriel Burns, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

MLB’s return isn’t guaranteed, but for the first time in weeks, negotiations seem to be moving in a positive direction. The owners and the players union are talking, and while we don’t know where they’ll settle, we have some idea of how the season will look.

The league’s latest proposal, reportedly sent to the players Wednesday, is for a 60-game season with an expanded playoff field of 16 teams. The players reportedly still want more games.

We’ll assume they settle in that 60-to-70 range. It’ll be a unique season that obviously requires a schedule unlike any before it. Under a new geographical format, teams would face their division opponents and the other league’s equivalent. In this case, the Braves would play the East and the East.

One idea, suggested by the ESPN’s , could be a 66-game season. The schedule would feature 12 games each against four division opponents, three games each against four interleague opponents and six games (home and home) against an interleague rival.

Since Ken reworded his tweet, let's do this one more time...

Here's why 66 games works:

*12 games each vs 4 division opponents *3 games each vs 4 interleague opponents *6 games (home and home) vs interleague rival https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1273333561291128833 …

The owners may opt against that many games, but the logic is sound. However it happens — if it happens — this season would be unlike any in MLB history.

New facets of the Braves’ schedule, regardless of the finer points:

• We’ll start with the opponent element. The Braves’ regular-season competitors will be restricted to the Eastern divisions. Their usual division foes plus the AL East, which includes the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles.

While a bad series against, say, the Yankees or Rays normally wouldn’t matter much in the grand scheme of a 162-game season, its importance grows in a trimmed campaign. The good news is that those successful meetings with the Marlins and Orioles would matter the same.

Under Stark’s concept, the Braves’ schedule would include 12 games each against the Mets, Phillies, Nationals and Marlins (six home, six away). They would face the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles three times each. They would oppose the Red Sox, who are considered the Braves’ interleague rival, six times. (The Braves had the Red Sox on their schedule this season, while the Phillies had the Blue Jays. Yankees-Mets, Rays- Marlins and Orioles-Nationals are more natural rivalries.)

Whatever overall number the league and players agree on, 12 games against each divisional foe seems the likeliest way to go.

Certainly, the Eastern divisions will create for extremely competitive play. The expanded playoff field, however, helps in the event the Braves have a rough week. Still, a 3-7 stretch is felt much more should the finale come in Game 60 instead of 162.

• When the pandemic forced MLB to stop operations, it didn’t take long to realize the schedule was going to have to be redone. That erased the Braves’ appetizing slate against the AL West, which was disappointing for several reasons.

Mike Trout and the Angels would’ve played at Truist Park for the first time in July. It would’ve also been the first time Ronald Acuna shared a field with Trout (excluding the All-Star game). The Angels have several former Braves, too, including Andrelton Simmons, Julio Teheran, Justin Upton and Tommy La Stella. The Braves would’ve faced the Rangers at their new ballpark. It will be a while before the Braves return to Arlington again (they last faced the Rangers on the road in 2014). It also canceled what would’ve been the Braves’ fourth trip to Seattle.

And then there’s the Astros, whom the Braves would’ve hosted to end the regular season. Aside from the everyone-hates-the-Astros factor, both clubs presumably would’ve been in the playoff hunt. That compelling storyline is long gone.

• The Braves won’t have a regular-season rematch with the Cardinals, who eliminated them in the NL Division Series in October. They won’t face the Dodgers, a team deemed the NL’s measuring stick and a potential budding rival.

Perhaps that will generate even more anticipation for possible postseason meetings. Nonetheless, no Braves-Cardinals or Braves-Dodgers is a loss for fans.

• On the subject of fans: there won’t be any in the stands. That probably won’t change by the postseason, when MLB already is fearful that the coronavirus’ second wave could prevent the completion of the season.

Empty stadiums wipe out an important home-field advantage aspect. It especially hurts teams such as the Braves, who’ve benefited greatly from their enthusiastic crowds.

The Braves went 50-31 at home last season, which put them in a three-way tie for the third-best mark in the NL with the Nationals and Cardinals (the Cubs had 51 home wins, the Dodgers had 59).

Now, at least for 2020, the playing field would be even. It’s not as if the Braves weren’t an excellent road team either. They’ve gone 47-34 away from home in each of the past two seasons.

If MLB plays it will be a wild, random season

By Michael Cunningham, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

I’m assuming that MLB and its players soon will reach a deal for the 2020 season that looks something like the latest reported offers from both sides. I know that’s not a safe assumption. The players’ union has twice shot down reports that MLB believed the sides had a “framework” for a deal and, oh yeah, there’s the challenge of playing in home stadiums during a pandemic.

But let’s say MLB plays something between the 60 games proposed by owners and the 70 proposed by players, followed by a postseason that includes 16 teams. What kind of season will that be for baseball? And what will such a short season mean for the Braves?

Basically, MLB’s players and teams will roll the dice and hope they come out on the right side of the randomness.

Baseball requires lots of games to separate the lucky from the good. That won’t happen when playing less than 40 percent of the usual 162-game schedule. Placing more than half the teams in the playoffs only adds more chance to the equation.

Hot streaks will produce MVPs and Cy Young winners (if those awards are given out). The World Series champion could be so lucky as to be unworthy of a title. It will be another legitimacy debate for a sport that has more than any other. There will be calls for asterisks all over this season.

I welcome a season of any length, so long as the health of the participants is protected. Focusing on season-long arcs is to forget that there is value in individual games. I’ll watch them even if the overall outcomes don’t seem fair.

And as stated previously in this space, I like the idea of a short-season sprint to an expanded postseason. That was a month ago, when MLB proposed an 80-game season with seven playoff bids per league. A 60-70 game season with eight postseason spots per league is a faster race to a wilder postseason.

Still, my emotional desire for entertainment clashes with my rational need for enough data to confirm what I think I’m seeing. It’s hard for me to get my head around a baseball season with no more than 70 games even if I’m ready to see it. It could be both fun and frustrating.

The Braves might be among the losers in a short season. They are a good team, and good teams tend to prevail over the long haul. In the short term, they can lose to inferior teams because of flukes.

I consider the Braves to be a worthy favorite to win the and second to the Dodgers in the NL. At least that’s what I thought in early March, when it still seemed as if there would be a normal schedule. Nothing has been normal since then, so now who knows how the Braves, Dodgers or any other team will perform?

There’s no word yet on the opponent breakdown for the proposed schedules. Presumably, the Braves will play a slate with a high percentage of games against NL East opponents. That’s not ideal. In the NL’s other two divisions, only the Dodgers and Cardinals look to be in their class. The East has more challengers. The Nationals lost third baseman Anthony Rendon since winning the World Series but have the NL’s best rotation. The Phillies improved their pitching and aren’t apt to have lousy injury luck again (that’s a variable that’s a lot more important in a short season). The Mets are a threat to stop being the Mets and finally play to their potential.

It’s hard to imagine the Braves being one of the seven NL teams left out of the playoffs. They are good enough that such an outcome would seemingly require an incredible run of bad luck. Yet there are some reasons to think the short season might hurt them, especially at the plate.

Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies tend to slump in May. That isn’t a big deal when the season lasts until October, but 25 or so bad games means a lot if there’s only 60 to 70. Freddie Freeman can go on tears but he won’t have much time to do it this year.

It’s not clear if the short season would be a net benefit for Braves . My guess is that it’s good for the veterans in the rotation, not so good for the younger pitchers. I figure relief pitchers will be fine since they are accustomed to working in small samples and being ready whenever needed.

The delayed start could help Braves left-hander Cole Hamels. He suffered a shoulder injury in February that was projected to keep him out beyond opening day, but presumably will be ready when the season begins. Veteran right-hander Mike Foltynewicz still is hard to figure out, but generally, he’s been better early in the season than later during his career.

The shorter season is unfortunate for young Braves starters and Max Fried. They’ve lost out on needed seasoning. Soroka and Fried have a combined 73 starts and 425 2/3 innings. Now they will pitch during a truncated season with heightened stakes for every game.

It could turn out that all the usual analysis means little for this season. Everything is based on the normal understanding of a typical baseball year: offseason training, full spring training, 162-game season. Changing those variables for players who are accustomed to ritual could have unexpected results.

There will be lots of noise in the statistics this season. Sabermetics has tried to figure out what sample size is necessary for numbers to become reliable measures of performance. The conclusion is that it doesn’t take long for three of the most important numbers for pitchers: rate (70 batters faced), walk rate (170) and fly-ball rate (70 balls in play).

It’s a bit different for hitters. Strikeout rate (60 plate appearances), walk rate (120) and extra-base hit rate (160 at-bats) stabilize early. It takes much longer for slugging percentage (310 PAs) and on-base percentage (460 PAs). And batting average is a notoriously noisy statistic, with more than one full season of at-bats needed for it to be a reliable measure of performance.

Even great hitters can produce bad numbers over a small sample of games. MLB’s best, , went hitless in 37 games last season (minimum four plate appearances). Over those 165 plate appearances, Trout had 45 and 35 walks and posted a .242 OBP.

Trout wasn’t good for nearly 30 percent of his 134 games. He was AL MVP because he was great in so many others. If this season is played, he and other MLB players won’t get enough chances to balance out their bad stretches with good ones.

That’s a circumstance created by COVID-19 and the protracted negotiations between MLB owners and players. I’ll probably end up regretting my assumption that they’ll reach a deal. But if they do, what follows will be a wild and random season. That beats no season at all, but get ready for some weird outcomes.

Atlanta’s pro franchises team for virtual 5K to benefit civil rights center

By AJC Sports

Atlanta’s professional sports teams will take part in a virtual 5K run to raise money for social-justice education, it was announced Thursday. The Atlanta Track Club announced the One Team ATL 5K in partnership with the Braves, Dream, Falcons, Hawks and United to benefit the National Center for Civil and Human Rights.

The virtual run will held July 11-12. Registration is open with a $30 fee. Registration closes at 11:59 p.m. July 10.

“We are honored to be working with such great partners to come together and use our collective voice to put a spotlight on racism and inequality,” Atlanta Track Club Executive Director Rich Kenah said in a statement. “Atlanta’s sports fans are the best in the world and even better when we are all on the same team. We are excited to make a difference together here in Running City USA.”

Participants will receive a T-shirt featuring the logos of all five Atlanta sports teams as well as a commemorative race bib, motivational and inspirational messages from Atlanta’s sports stars and mascots and a custom playlist. After running a 5K on a course of their choosing, participants can upload their results to Atlanta Track Club’s website to see how they compared with their fellow runners.

Here is what Atlanta’s professional sports teams had to say about the event in released statements:

“The Atlanta Braves are honored to come together as a unified group with the other Atlanta professional sports teams and we love that fans of each team are uniting as well by participating in the One Team ATL virtual 5K. In this unprecedented time of understanding and change, we are proud to join and unite against injustices here and around the world. Best of luck to all participants and many thanks to the Atlanta Track Club for their continued support of our community.” - Derek Schiller, President and CEO, Atlanta Braves

“The Dream and our fans are humbled to do our part by creating awareness around social justice through the One Team ATL 5K with other professional sports teams in Atlanta. The Center for Civil and Human Rights in Atlanta helps us to connect the American Civil Rights movement to the struggles of the Global Human Rights Movement. By participating in this cause, we can raise both money and awareness together.” – Chris Sienko, President and General Manager, Atlanta Dream

“We are proud to join hands with our fellow Atlanta sports organizations to serve our metro Atlanta community during this trying time. Today, more than ever, we need to stand together as a community and speak out against all social injustices across America. Sports has a very loud voice, especially when we all let our voices be heard together to support meaningful change. We wish all One Team ATL virtual 5K participants good luck and we thank the Atlanta Track Club for continuing their partnership and support in our community.” - Steve Cannon, CEO, AMB Sports + Entertainment

“We look forward to teaming up with the Braves, Dream, Falcons, and United as well as Atlanta Track Club to unite the city of Atlanta around this virtual event to take stand for social justice during this time of social distancing. Black Lives Matter and this will be a great opportunity for fans to participate in a healthy activity and raise money for The Center for Civil and Human Rights as they continue programs that support education and meaningful change in our city.” - Melissa Proctor, Chief Marketing Officer, Atlanta Hawks

The Athletic

Endgame: Settling at midpoint might not work for MLB players or owners

By and Evan Drellich

The midpoint is obvious. The actual resolution is not.

The players’ latest proposal to the league Thursday called for a 70-game season. The owners’ offer a day earlier was for 60 games.

Split the difference at 65 and we’re home, right?

The fact both sides made offers that met the players’ demand for full prorated salaries is indeed a sign of progress. But owners feel they extended themselves with their 60-game proposal, not just on salaries but also with other concessions. In fact, the owners believed they were on the cusp of a deal when commissioner Rob Manfred and union head worked through that offer during a face-to-face in Arizona on Tuesday night — a notion the union rejected with not one but two statements Thursday.

A powerful ownership voice who once directed these kinds of negotiations does not see the owners stretching further.

“Here’s what I told Rob (Manfred) today,” said Yankees president Randy Levine, who was the league’s lead negotiator coming out of the 1994-95 strike. “As I’ve said, I have great respect for the players. I just do not think we can reach agreement on the number of games.

“I think the March 26 agreement recognized that (the commissioner has the right to set the schedule). So what I would do if I were commissioner — and what I advised him to do — was this: You have the players saying, ‘Where and when. We’re ready to play.’ We agreed to pay them 100 percent pro rata of their salary. So he should just say, ‘We’re finished talking about the number of games.'”

The league, then, is sure to reject the union’s latest proposal, under which the regular season would last from July 19 to Sept. 30. The offer also included expanded playoffs this year and next, as well as two other big changes for 2020 and ’21: The designated hitter in both leagues, as the league also had proposed, and the ability for teams to sell advertising on uniforms.

Importantly, the players also proposed that both sides would waive their right to any grievance over the length of the season or any other aspect of the March agreement, which set the framework for these discussions. The owners are keen on avoiding such a grievance, which could cost them hundreds of millions of dollars.

But just as the midpoint of 65 games might not suffice for owners, the players want as many games as possible to justify the concessions they proposed with their 70-game season: the grievance waiver and the expanded postseason chief among them.

The union’s problem with the league’s 60-game proposal is that, ultimately, the number of games is not much greater than the number the league would implement in a schedule of its choosing — a power vested in Manfred by the March agreement. The season in that event would likely be 50- odd games.

Every game added to a proposed season adds $25 million in player compensation. The difference of 10 games between the proposals makes for a difference of $250 million, then, and that’s before the other elements of the deal are considered. So even though both sides ultimately want a new deal, the owners might not be willing to play much more than 60 games at full prorated salaries, and the players might not be willing to waive their right to the grievance for much fewer than 70. At least, not without other changes that could impact the willingness on either side.

On June 12, the league proposed a 72-game season in length, but six days later it was unclear whether it was willing to play more than 60. The union has long suspected that owners simply want to play as few games as possible to get to the postseason because of the lucrative postseason broadcast deals.

Players, too, are livid with Manfred, believing he has tried to villainize them publicly. They also took exception with him saying the 60-game framework he discussed with Clark could form the basis of an agreement. The players viewed it as a proposal.

“Players think they have their Ph.D. — player hater degree,” one player said Thursday of Manfred and the owners.

But the commissioner’s office likewise questions union leadership and tactics, believing the players are setting moving targets.

The league was taken aback by the union’s request for 70 games after thinking Clark was prepared to “sell” 60 to the players. The union in its proposal asked for additional benefits, including:

• An unknown level of forgiveness for the $170 million advance the players received (the league had proposed $33 million);

• A $50 million postseason pool, twice what the league offered, if a full playoff is staged this year;

• A 50-50 split of incremental TV revenues for additional postseason games in 2021.

The players also offered the clubs certain benefits, including the permission to sell advertisements on uniforms, a neutral site/quarantine framework if needed to maximize the likelihood of the 2020 postseason and a $50 million transfer from the joint International Tax Fund to the commissioner’s discretionary fund.

But as the union countered, the fallout from the four-hour meeting between Clark and Manfred in Arizona on Tuesday lingered. The disagreement tempered what was otherwise a sense of progress entering Wednesday. The sides were no longer fighting over whether players should receive a per-game pay cut.

“I don’t know what Tony and I were doing there for several hours going back and forth and making trades if we weren’t reaching an agreement,” Manfred told a pair of news outlets Thursday night.

Clark on Thursday issued a pair of statements.

“In my discussions with Rob in Arizona we explored a potential pro rata framework, but I made clear repeatedly in that meeting and after it that there were a number of significant issues with what he proposed, in particular the number of games,” Clark said in the latter, which was more strongly worded. “It is unequivocally false to suggest that any tentative agreement or other agreement was reached in that meeting. In fact, in conversations within the last 24 hours, Rob invited a counterproposal for more games that he would take back to the owners. We submitted that counterproposal today.”

Under that proposal, spring training would start in a little more than a week, in the June 26-28 range. So close. Yet still far away.

Pandemic, lost revenue and CBA make the future of MLB free agency precarious

By Andy McCullough

The fantasy of labor detente flickered into reality, ever so briefly, one day this past December inside the cavernous confines of the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego, when Rob Manfred, the commissioner of Major League Baseball, bumped into Scott Boras, the game’s highest-profile agent.

Both had reason to smile. Boras was in the midst of negotiating more than $1 billion in free-agent contracts for his clients that winter. Manfred was receiving a respite from headlines about the skullduggery of the sport’s recent champions, the capricious qualities of its and the penuriousness of its owners. The forecast looked bright. Owners were spending. Players were getting paid. Fans were salivating.

“This is great,” Manfred told Boras. “This is what the Winter Meetings should be.”

From here, the recollections diverge.

In Boras’s version, the commissioner offered an addendum.

“Keep it going,” Manfred said, according to Boras. “Let’s make baseball exciting.” Pat Courtney, MLB’s chief communications officer, was standing with Manfred during this interaction. He confirmed both parties agreed the spending was good for baseball. But the commissioner, Courtney insisted, never said “Keep it going.”

Even this disputed episode feels like a dispatch from a forgotten era. Remember the Winter Meetings? Remember baseball’s $2.2 billion bonanza? Thirty players signed eight-figure contracts this past offseason. Gerrit Cole set a record for free-agent pitchers, with his $324 million deal eclipsing a benchmark set two days prior by Stephen Strasburg ($245 million). The weeklong convention in San Diego ended with a $245 million payday for Anthony Rendon.

Yet even amid the fervor, Manfred offered a reminder that the good times might not roll forever. He could not have foreseen the calamity that awaited his sport and the world a few months down the road. But he understood how baseball’s owners operated.

“I think the existing market system has served Major League Baseball and the players tremendously well for a long period of time,” Manfred told reporters that week. “You know, markets are going to be up and down. That’s what happens in markets. It depends on what players are out there, what financial constraints clubs are under in a particular season.”

Inside the eye of a storm, there is no time to worry about thunder in the distance. The ramifications of this current moment — a season upended by a virus, a sport roiling with resentment — will last beyond this summer. A canvass conducted by The Athletic of agents, executives, scouts and academics — some of whom requested anonymity in order to speak freely — painted an uncertain portrait for the future of free-agent spending.

Some agents expressed faith their top-shelf clients would find fair compensation. There was less confidence in the fate of lesser talents. Executives speculated about a dearth of qualifying offers, a deluge of non-tender candidates and a market packed with players forced to consider short-term offers. One talent evaluator predicted the market would be “extremely tough sledding” for middle-tier players.

Multiple officials used the same adjective to describe the sport’s non-star class: “Fucked.”

Adding to the instability is the threat of a work stoppage after the collective bargaining agreement expires in December 2021. Most of the baseball officials surveyed offered an admission: They could not do more than guess about the future, not when a significant portion of the sport’s economic future resided at the mercy of the coronavirus, not when the end of the pandemic was far from near.

Will owners spend again?

“I have no idea,” one executive said. “I think a lot depends on what the (labor) deal is now, what season ticket renewal rates look like going into next year. There are just so many unknowns right now that it’s a tough thing to answer with any degree of conviction.”

Wait. Season ticket renewals? Will there be fans in the stands at the outset of 2021? At any point in 2021? How could anyone answer that question?

“Exactly,” the executive said. The challenge, the executive continued, was determining when Major League Baseball would experience a level of revenue like the $10.7 billion accumulated in 2019.

That may not happen for a while. Andrew Zimbalist, an economics professor at Smith College, emphasized that the recovery of the nation may not be swift. He described recent improvements for the stock market as a “very temporary and ephemeral upturn in the economy,” a phenomenon that does not account for the massive levels of unemployment and under-employment throughout the country.

The reverberations from the pandemic may continue even if a vaccine can be discovered and implemented in time for games to be played in crowded stadiums in 2021. Fewer dollars for consumers, Zimbalist explained, means fewer fans in the stands, fewer filled luxury boxes, fewer merchandise purchases, lower revenues for teams.

“I think that the coming several years of economic performance are going to be very disappointing and dismal,” Zimbalist said. “I think the owners will respond accordingly. Nobody is going to expect that the team revenues in 2021 and 2022 are going to be where they were in 2019. They have to ask themselves the question, ‘So how much is it going to be worth to re-sign Cody Bellinger?’ It’s going to be less than it used to be. It’s going to be a lot less.”

For players, the rhetoric emanating from the ownership class has not been encouraging. The few owners who have deigned to speak to the public during these negotiations have stressed how much the pandemic has cost them. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts declared “the scale of losses across the league is biblical,” and Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt insisted “this industry isn’t very profitable, to be honest.” Meanwhile, Major League Baseball struck a new television deal with Turner Sports worth at least $3.2 billion, according to CNBC.

One executive noted that the “crazy comments” of DeWitt and Ricketts contained a kernel of truth. The year-to-year profits of a baseball team are not what entices a billionaire to purchase one — the lure comes from the franchise valuation. But the owners still “run the teams like any outside business, where they want it to be independently profitable, or at least break even,” the executive said. “So with revenues down — and teams that had to take out debt, now they’re going to have to service that debt — yeah, I can see a scenario where a lot of teams are looking for savings. And by far the biggest expense line on everybody’s books is player payroll.”

Consider how owners have laid off scouts, furloughed employees and forced pay cuts across the board. Consider how the sport shortened its draft to five rounds. Oakland and Washington had to be shamed into paying their minor-league players $400 a month. The savings wrought by those decisions paled next to what a decent player might make in his third year of arbitration. “You cut 10 percent of your staff and have the rest of your staff take pay cuts, and you don’t even put a dent compared to just cutting one mid-tier player salary,” the executive said.

The Orioles wore criticism for waiving Jonathan Villar, one of their best players in 2019, rather than paying him about $8 million through arbitration for 2020. Others in the industry could follow suit in 2021 — and not just tanking teams like Baltimore. One agent suggested the ownership class already harbors “a huge disdain for players in general, and what they get paid.” There could be more pressure on executives to find cheaper alternatives than homegrown players with rising salaries.

Boras, for one, rejected the notion that the lost gate revenue should curtail expenditures on talent.

“The ownership valuations are the foundation of the game,” Boras said. “And the ownership valuations are all good because teams are not for sale. And the reason they’re not for sale is that when you play the full seasons, apart from these interruptions, the reality of it is that this is a very, very successful business. My God, they’re making almost $175 million a year in appreciation for each franchise.

“Nice business, huh?”

One of the biggest winners of the 2019 offseason was still a year away from free agency. The deals for Cole, Strasburg and Rendon boded well for Mookie Betts, the four-time All-Star outfielder generally considered the sport’s best player not named Mike Trout. When he hit the market after 2020, the conventional wisdom went, he should be able to find offers somewhere between Trout’s $426.5 million deal and Bryce Harper’s $330 million deal. Betts had a chance to become baseball’s first $400 million free agent.

Now?

“No chance,” one executive said.

“No way,” another said.

“Hard to see,” a third said.

Like the rest of this upcoming free-agent class, Betts will face a choice. He could accept a below-market deal, perhaps one lighter than the $300 million offer he reportedly rejected from the Red Sox before being traded to the Dodgers, or he could bet on himself in the form of a short-term contract. That gamble, of course, is predicated on the owners and the union avoiding a lockout after the expiration of the CBA, and for teams becoming willing to spend as they did in 2019.

In general, though, executives and agents agreed that players like Betts will be fine. They may make less money than expected. They still will make a lot. Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto also fits this category, evaluators said. But there were questions about a variety of others soon to hit the market. George Springer won’t get a full season to shake off the taint from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Marcus Semien won’t be able to deliver another 8.9 bWAR campaign like he did in 2019. Marcus Stroman can’t yet build off his All-Star performance last year.

The treatment of the players at the top of the pile trickles down to the rest of the group. How will veterans like Justin Turner, and Masahiro Tanaka be received? What about former All-Stars like Trevor Bauer, DJ LeMahieu and Joc Pederson? Or players who took pillow contracts for 2019 like Marcel Ozuna, Didi Gregorius and Blake Treinen? The potentially sizable number of non-tendered players would only make life easier for the buyers.

“The bulk of the players are in the middle class,” one agent said. “And they have been getting squeezed by the owners for years and years and years, both in total dollars, average annual value and length of contract. I don’t see why this year would be any different.”

The tenor of the current discussions does not sound like a harbinger of labor peace. But Boras, at least, remained steadfast in his optimism. Despite the constant acrimony and the gloomy economic forecast, he predicted a future in which owners would keep spending. It was good for the sport. Everyone, he said, knows that.

“Winning for franchises creates volume,” Boras said. “It increases franchise value. It does those things. And because of that, players, particularly star players, will be of great value. Because it’s good business to have them. It really is.”

New York Post

Baseball needs a savior after players’ counteroffer botch

By Mike Vaccaro

Well, let’s hope you enjoyed the 13 minutes in which professional baseball players enjoyed prosperity in the court of public opinion. If you blinked you missed it all, kind of like Kevin Maas’ career as Yankee Clipper 2.0. It isn’t that the MLBPA was wrong to counter the owners’ 60-game schedule Thursday with one 10 games longer, one that includes a slightly larger piece of the financial pie. In a normal negotiation, in truth, that would simply be a part of the dance: you say 60, we say 70, let’s meet at 64 (or 66; an even number is an imperative) and then, in the words of Rex Ryan, let’s go have a damned snack and we’ll meet you at spring training.

But there is nothing normal about this negotiation, mostly because of the unmitigated and unyielding contempt both sides have for each other, partly because the featured players, Rob Manfred and Tony Clark, have both shown a blind spot for actually remembering what it is they actually say whenever they actually get together to talk.

And partly because of this:

“Tell us when and where.”

Look, we are all tired veterans of this process by now and we know that was simply an easily hashtagged rallying cry that was designed to illustrate the unity of a union that, historically, is about as unified as unions ever get. That was Clark’s response to an ownership proposal last week that the players found laughable enough that they simply assumed Manfred would, as his powers as commissioner allow, impose a truncated mad dash of a season. The union chief said his rank-and-file were ready and eager to get back to work. The rank-and-file adopted the slogan. Many tweeted it out.

And a funny thing happened:

Through the long history of owner and player disagreement, while the players have most always occupied the moral high ground they have almost always been strangled by their own public relations. When it’s come time to choose sides, the public almost always gathers behind the billionaires. This is not a new thing. Joe DiMaggio once held out for a couple-of-thousand-dollar raise, early in his career. When he ultimately had to settle for whatever crumbs the Yankees were willing to part with, he not only had to endure the harsh critiques of his bosses but had to serve an extended penance with Yankees fans, too, who booed a player they would later elevate in memory to the status of cherished secular saint.

Of course DiMaggio held out in the teeth of the Great Depression, and if the terms had been invented yet he surely would’ve been accused by the sports columnists of the day of being either “tone deaf,” or utilizing “bad optics,” or “failing to read the room.” Similarly, this labor skirmish takes place in the midst of a national calamity so the first reaction of many was to rip the players for refusing to take an even greater haircut than the one they already took once the first half of the season was amputated.

But even in more prosperous times the players have a hard time winning this fight. Everyone who ever played Wiffle Ball, stickball, porch ball or any form of organized baseball — or simply invested a soul in the game — looks at players walkouts as a fundamental betrayal. Everyone knows better, of course. Anyone with a job, asked if they would work for free, would have to stop laughing before they answered the question. Yet there is still a part of many that believes baseball players, who make their living playing baseball, ought to be grateful for every nickel.

That was always a given.

Except this time, it seemed, the players actually had the people on their side. Not all, no. But baseball’s owners are such a distasteful bunch, and Manfred, their puppet, is such a ham-handed leader, it was hard to fall in line behind them, either. They cried poverty and, boom: a billion- dollar TV deal appears! They claim to be sportsmen and defenders of a public trust and yet — voila! — some have expressed private hope the season is never played. At best this is always an airline-food-versus-hospital-food debate, but more than ever before it felt like the players had a fair share of public sentiment on their side.

Then they were told where, and

Tell us where and when!

Told when, and … well, they wanted more. Now it is their right to want more. It is their privilege. And it is easy to believe that Manfred and Clark, who can’t agree on if water is wet, would have different interpretations of how their little face-to-face went the other day. Of course they did.

But this isn’t about right or wrong. It’s about perception. It’s also about finding adults who can stand up and, ultimately, do what’s right and, more and more, it seems obvious the players are going to have to provide that adult supervision.

In the NFL, in a similar crisis, there are numerous voices with enough gravitas to help preach reason. John Mara. Art Rooney II. Robert Kraft. Clark Hunt. Baseball? You tell me who can pull that off. The best team in recent years is the Astros — not exactly a candidate to offer moral authority on anything. The defending champions are the Nats, and their billionaire owners had to be shamed by the players into not cutting off their minor leaguers. Maybe a Hal Steinbrenner/John Henry parlay could work, but the more likely scenario is they’d be viewed as big-market beasts looking after their own interest.

So who is the adult? Manfred? Clark? Anyone? The players had the ear of the public for 13 precious minutes or so, but they also have an army of right-thinking, forward-thinking members who have actually shown themselves to be quite admirable these past few months. Think of the many players who have offered to underwrite minor leaguers, and the others who’ve spoken eloquently in the face of the social vitriol of the past month. Maybe someone can figure a way to talk sense into the people that make this decision. I still think if that happens, it’ll come from the players side. But someone needs to do it, and soon.

The game turns its lonely eyes to you, whoever you are. USA Today

From expanded playoffs to sponsored jerseys: Four ways MLB's shortened season may permanently alter the game

Gabe Lacques

As Major League Baseball and its players hammer out an agreement to play a 2020 season that will look nothing like the game has ever seen, it’s becoming apparent that many of the adjustments may take on a more permanent look.

It’s never wise to forever alter your industry under duress, but the changes coming to baseball – both sweeping and subtle – are not of the shocking variety, more the sort that festered on a back burner for many years before a global pandemic forced both sides to adjust.

And as it turns out, some long-sought adjustments will likely get jammed into 2020 and 2021 – greatly enhancing the chances they become permanent during negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement after the '21 season.

Here’s a look at key points in negotiation between MLB and the Players’ Association, as well as changes of a more evolutionary variety that may stick long after this truncated season is over:

Extra-large playoffs, shrunken season?

Since 1993, the playoffs have increasingly needed a bigger tent, expanding from four teams to eight to 10, adding knockout games and billions of dollars in revenue while largely maintaining the sanctity of the game’s greatest appeal – its 162-game grind.

Now, in this season of anywhere from 60 to 70-ish games, the sides will likely agree to expanded playoffs of up to 16 teams for this year and in 2021, providing owners and players alike crucial revenue during two seasons that may not involve fans at the ballpark.

In this 2020 sprint, an expanded playoff field makes plenty of sense: Anything less than 120 games comes nowhere near producing a legitimate playoff field. (Your NLCS participants in 2019 were nowhere near a playoff spot around the 64-game mark). So, an extra layer ensures that some slow-starting teams won’t be unduly penalized.

Additionally, since teams will have just played 60-plus games, pitchers won’t be overly taxed to get through that extra round of playoffs.

But what about next year? Asking teams to go through 162 games, a pair of best-of-five playoff rounds and then a best-of-seven League Championship Series and World Series is a lot. Not only will pitchers be gassed by the time the game’s jewel event arrives, but the likelihood of a 100-win team getting knocked off by a .500-ish upstart is greatly enhanced.

Here’s where we see this going: Owners and players alike will love the expanded playoff revenue and will find it awfully hard to wean themselves off it. So, a larger playoff format – maybe 12 teams, with byes to the top teams – will be here to stay.

Yet unless baseball commits to neutral sites for the World Series, it will likeley encounter weather problems in its annual calendar. At the same time, with attendance dropping more than 5% over the past two seasons, there is too much regular season inventory, to the point some smaller- market teams find opening up the stadium a losing proposition some nights.

So perhaps this will be the impetus to shorten the season – maybe back to 154 games – to lessen the amount of unappealing dates on the calendar while enjoying the guaranteed rake of playoff cash.

DH: Going, going, gone

MLB’s offer to enact the designated hitter for 2020 and ’21 shows that commissioner Rob Manfred has been doing some housekeeping behind the scenes. A universal DH has long been the desire of players – in that it creates up to 15 more lucrative jobs for veteran players – and a large segment of ownership. But it was always blocked by a cabal of National League owners wanting to maintain their way of life, if you will.

That certainly resonated with fans who appreciate the enhanced strategy in the NL, along with those who enjoy #pitcherswhorake. But if franchises, managers, players and fans alike all get used to life without pitchers hitting for two years, it’s likely never coming back.

Pitching problems

The expected late-July start of the 2020 season will come with expanded rosters to reduce pitcher injury after just a three-week second “spring training.” Yet the impact on pitching staffs will likely extend into 2021 and beyond.

In a season of around 60 games, a starting pitcher in a five-man rotation will only get about 13 starts. If we generously assume he averages six innings an outing, that’s just 80 innings pitched. While veteran pitchers who know their bodies well may welcome such a respite, it will present a significant roadblock for younger pitchers who have been dutifully building up their innings count every year.

Take San Diego’s Chris Paddack, who posted a 3.33 ERA over 26 starts in 2019. Paddack pitched 140 ⅔ innings, a 55% leap from the 90 innings he pitched in 2018. It would be reasonable to assume he’d be ready to jump to around 180 innings in 2020. Now, he will take a step backward in that progression, and who knows where that leaves him for 2021?

Let’s face it: This is a lost year for players at every level, and the effect on young pitchers will be profound. Due to injuries and volatile performance, baseball’s pitching pipeline must be constantly replenished, and an entire generation of minor-league pitchers who might have tacked an extra 20% on their odometers in preparing for 2021 or ’22 major league debuts are essentially frozen.

It’s not hard to imagine the industry responding, at least in coming years, by further marginalizing the role of the starter, leaning heavily on “openers” or piggybacking a pair of starters in a single game.

Lest we forget, 2020 marks the start of creeping commercialization onto the major league uniform: The Nike swoosh will adorn every jersey as part of a 10-year deal worth a reported $1 billion.

Now, as Yahoo Sports reports, MLB’s proposal to the players to begin the season includes a line item allowing “corporate advertising on uniforms in 2020 and 2021.”

Consider the floodgates open.

This will certainly be a thorny issue for MLB and its fans. The uniform has been relatively sacrosanct, and its appeal has always been a key extender of the league and its teams brands.

This isn’t MLS, after all, where you’d think some teams were named after a sketchy multi-level marketing nutritional company.

But once again, we go back to that key word: Revenue. With the very future of spectator sports in some doubt for several years, the need to make up the difference in gate proceeds will be profound. Remember when advertising on walls was a tacky accoutrement better suited for minor league teams?

Well, the 1994-95 work stoppage suddenly made teams quite willing to slap Old Navy and W.B. Mason all over its walls. Now, MLB must find the fine line between stuffing a few bucks in its pocket and giving over too much of its threads to Chico’s Bail Bonds.

The Signal

We may not get an MLB season — What does it mean for the league and the Braves?

By Julian Harden

The Atlanta Braves, like the rest of the MLB, are suffering amid the unexpected pause on all major league sports due to the coronavirus. Not only is the MLB season at risk due to the pandemic, but tensions between the MLB and the MLB Players Association are reaching new heights.

Continuing the quarantine increases uncertainty for both the Braves and the MLB as a whole. The league is contemplating a 76-game season as the best-case scenario. The worst? No season at all.

The young Braves have the fourth-best odds to win the . These expectations come after a season that saw Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies prove they are distinguished leaders in a polished and much-improved organization.

The possible cancelation of the season has some fans worried about the Braves’ window. Atlanta-based sports journalist Phil Hudson is not worried about it. Rather, he believes that time off would give players extra time to work on their mechanics.

“In light of the pandemic, it’s fair to say with a young team of players that the new Baby Braves will be able to develop and focus since they’re not distracted by all that comes with being on the road,” Hudson said.

Unlike the Los Angeles Dodgers who are in a “win-now” mode, Atlanta, who has not won a playoff series since 2001, is set up for success beyond 2020. Their young and gifted roster complements an exceptional front office well-suited to work through a canceled season.

A major concern comes with 36-year-old Nick Markakis. The outfielder is one of many veterans who could be negatively affected by the time off. All the time off could hurt their chances for another contract.

“A player past his age prime would be hurt more because it’s another season down the drain,”. Hudson said.

Players who are on rookie contracts would also be financially impacted without a 2020 season.

“A player past his athletic-age prime will suffer more because they’re one more year removed from that prime if the season goes down the drain,” Hudson said. One underrated thing about the delayed start that doesn’t have to do with money: players gain more time to sharpen their skills. Braves players who ended their 2019 season on a low note now have more time to practice and get their mind right for the upcoming season. Players such as first baseman Freddie Freeman and right-handed Mike Foltynewiczs are both using their time off to recover from disappointing ends to the 2019 season.

“Seeing Freddie working on his swing during the off-season means he is focused on working on coming back strong from while he’s been sheltering in place,” Hudson said.

The loss of the 2020 season would hurt many veterans looking for their last big contract before their career is over. Like other sports, baseball continues trying to formulate a way to open back up in the coming months. The most recent proposal between the league and its players association features a 50-60 game season starting sometime in July. A decrease to 50 games would be a hard pill to swallow and could devalue the regular season.

The proposal would create the shortest season in the league’s 117 years, eclipsing the 1981 season where only 81 games were played. The games will also be played without fans in attendance to protect against the spread of the coronavirus. The possible 50-game season has some questioning whether a season would be worth it at that point.

“At the end of the day this is a business and the players will quit acting like babies and get back to work,” Hudson said. “The players are acting like spoiled brats and they will get over it when they realize no one feels sorry for them.”

But, when baseball returns, the Braves will come back with the same sense of urgency from last season. Even in these trying times, it is important to realize that the players can and will persevere.

For Hudson the choice is clear and baseball should undoubtedly be played. Hudson believes despite the owners and players being in constant deadlock, the season will eventually be played.

“I’d rather watch baseball games from home than the grave,” Hudson said. “But, I’m hopeful either way because I like to think the Braves win a World Series every season in heaven.”