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Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update

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Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update 7 Prepared in cooperation with the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update Open-File Report 2012–1189 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Prepared in cooperation with the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update By E. Robert Thieler, Theresa L. Smith, Julia M. Knisel, and Daniel W. Sampson Open-File Report 2012–1189 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2013 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Thieler, E.R., Smith, T.L., Knisel, J.M., and Sampson, D.W., 2013, Massachusetts Shoreline Change Mapping and Analysis Project, 2013 Update: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1189, 42 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1189/. Acknowledgements This assessment of historical shoreline change in Massachusetts was undertaken through an agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM) with funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Massachusetts Geographic Information System (MassGIS) personnel provided orthoimagery and metadata. We thank several people from the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program for their support in completing this project. Emily Himmelstoss assisted with estimating uncertainties and writing metadata, helping to calculate rates of shoreline change, and providing technical support. Amy Farris generated the 2007 lidar shoreline data. Jeff List provided technical advice and computed regionally averaged rates and confidence intervals. Meredith Kratzmann suggested improvements for the figures. We thank Cheryl Hapke and Erika Lentz for their technical reviews of this report. iii Contents Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................................................ iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Methods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Compilation of Shoreline Positions ............................................................................................................................ 2 Estimation of Shoreline Position Uncertainty ............................................................................................................. 3 Proxy-Datum Bias Correction Between High Water and Mean High Water Shorelines ............................................. 5 Calculation of Rates of Shoreline Change ................................................................................................................. 5 Long-Term Rates ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Short-Term Rates ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Historical Shoreline Change Analysis and Interpretation ............................................................................................... 6 North Shore ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Boston ........................................................................................................................................................................ 7 South Shore ............................................................................................................................................................... 8 Cape Cod Bay ............................................................................................................................................................ 9 Outer Cape Cod ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 South Cape Cod ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 Buzzards Bay ............................................................................................................................................................10 Elizabeth Islands .......................................................................................................................................................10 Martha’s Vineyard .....................................................................................................................................................11 Nantucket ..................................................................................................................................................................11 Effect of Shorelines From the 1970s and 1994 on Rates of Shoreline Change ........................................................12 Comparison of Rates of Shoreline Change With Previous Studies ...........................................................................13 Examples of Different Types of Shoreline Behavior ..................................................................................................14 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................14 References Cited ..........................................................................................................................................................16 Appendix 1.Historical Shorelines ..................................................................................................................................42 Figures 1. Index map of the Massachusetts coastline, showing place names mentioned on maps and in text ................19 2. Map showing the spatial extent of new shoreline data produced for this study ...............................................20 3. Map showing areas identified as having poor-quality orthophotography from 2009 due principally to image distortions and poor contrast ...........................................................................................................................21 4. Diagram showing the relation between the measurement baseline, the transects from the Digital Shoreline Analysis System database, shoreline measurement points, and shoreline positional uncertainty ...................22 5. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term end-point rates of shoreline change in Massachusetts for the North Shore region ......................................................................................................23 6. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term end-point rates of shoreline change in Massachusetts for the Boston region...............................................................................................................24 7. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term end-point rates of shoreline change in Massachusetts for the South Shore region ......................................................................................................25 8. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term end-point rates of shoreline change in Massachusetts for the Cape Cod Bay region ..................................................................................................26 9. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term rates of end-point shoreline change in Massachusetts for the Outer Cape Cod region ................................................................................................27 iv 10. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term end-point rates of shoreline change in Massachusetts for the South Cape Cod region ...............................................................................................28 11. Map and graphs showing long-term linear regression and short-term end-point rates of shoreline change in Massachusetts for the
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