UPM – THE BIOFORE COMPANY
Nordea Forest Products & Paper Seminar 2015 Jussi Pesonen President and CEO Contents
• Q1 2015 results
• UPM in transformation
• Capital allocation
• Summary
2 | © UPM Q1 2015 RESULTS Q1 2015 – good profitability continued
Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2014: Sales ROE (* EUR 2,486m 0% 8.1% +0.4pp EBITDA Operating cash flow EUR 325m +2m EUR 108m -156m Operating profit (* Net debt EUR 204m +8m EUR 2,419m -358m
Profit before tax (* Net debt / EBITDA EUR 182m +6m 1.8x -0.5x EPS (* Operating cash flow / share, 12 month EUR 0.29 +0.02 EUR 2.03 +0.34
4 | © UPM (* excluding special items Q1 2015 – good profitability continued
EURm EBITDA in Q1/15 vs. Q1/14 450 Operating profit excl. special items 400 increased to EUR 204m (196m) Currency, 323 325 350 net 13.0% impact 13.1% + Profit improvement actions and Variable costs 300 favourable currencies, Fixed moderated by hedging 250 costs Prices − Publication paper prices, Deliveries 200 paper deliveries in Europe and
150 electricity sales prices
100 Good performance in Biorefining, 50 Plywood, Raflatac and Paper Asia
0 UPM is well positioned for earnings EBITDA EBITDA Q1/14 Q1/15 growth, outlook for 2015 unchanged 5 | © UPM UPM IN TRANSFORMATION UPM in transformation
Business 2003: 2008: 2014: portfolio, integrated towards market- six separate sales paper company driven businesses businesses 100 % 100 % 100 %
80 % 80 % 80 % Paper ENA Sold units Sold units 60 % 60 % 60 % Plywood Paper Paper Energy Plywood Plywood 40 % 40 % 40 % Paper Asia Raflatac Raflatac Raflatac Sawmilling Sawmilling 20 % 20 % 20 % Biorefining
0 % 0 % 0 % 2003 2008 2014 Sales EUR 9.8bn EUR 9.5bn EUR 9.9bn EBIT (* EUR 429m EUR 513m EUR 847m Net debt EUR 4.9bn EUR 4.3bn EUR 2.4bn Market cap EUR 7.9bn EUR 4.7bn EUR 7.3bn Personnel 34,500 25,000 20,400 7 | © UPM *) excluding special items UPM businesses portfolio in figures
EBITDA 2014 Capital employed, Dec 2014 EUR 1,287m EUR 10.9bn
UPM Plywood UPM Other operations UPM Biorefining UPM Biorefining Plywood UPM Paper ENA
UPM Paper ENA
UPM UPM UPM UPM Energy Paper Asia Paper Asia Energy UPM UPM Raflatac Raflatac 8 | © UPM Four business areas achieved their long-term return targets in 2014
UPM UPM UPM UPM UPM UPM Energy Biorefining Paper Asia Paper ENA Plywood Raflatac 20 20 20 20 20 20 ROCE % (* ROCE % ROCE % CF/CE % ROCE % ROCE % 18 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014
(* shareholdings in UPM Energy Long-term return target valued at fair value
9 | © UPM UPM strategy in action
Biofuels: Lappeenranta 2. EBITDA target biorefinery for growth projects Pulp: 10% capacity increase EUR 200m Plywood: Otepää expansion UPM 3. Business portfolio Biorefining development and UPM Plywood value creation 1. Profit UPM 4. New businesses improvement Paper UPM programme Asia BIOFUELS Paper Labelling materials: ENA EUR 150m Changshu expansion BIOCHEMICALS Self-adhesive labels: expansion in growth markets and in higher BIOCOMPOSITES UPM value added products Energy UPM Raflatac
10 | © UPM 1. PROFITABILITY IMPROVEMENT Profit improvement programme targeting EUR 150 million of fixed and variable cost savings
EUR million 200 Full annualised EUR 150 million impact of the programme is expected to realise by the end of 2015, as compared with Q3/14 150
Other fixed and 100 variable cost 31% savings realised in Q1 2015 50 Fixed cost savings from planned closures (* 0 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 (* 800,000 tonnes of publication paper capacity in Europe: three paper machines were closed in Q1/15, employee consultation process is 12 | © UPM proceeding regarding one machine 2. FOCUSED ORGANIC GROWTH PROJECTS Lappeenranta biorefinery in commercial production
• World’s first biorefinery producing 120 million litres of wood based advanced renewable diesel
• Commercial production started in January 2015, ramp up still in early stage
• Production technology works as planned and the high-quality product fulfils customer specifications
• Distribution has started through Finnish service stations St1 and ABC in May 2015 14 | © UPM 10% increase in pulp production capacity
• Pietarsaari pulp mill modernisation and 70,000 tonnes capacity expansion completed in June 2014
• Fray Bentos pulp mill production permit allows a 100,000 tonnes increase in production. Minor investments were carried out in Q4 2014
• Kymi pulp mill 170,000 tonnes capacity expansion proceeding well, start-up by the end of 2015
15 | © UPM Advancing in growth markets
• Investment in labelling materials and woodfree speciality papers at the UPM Changshu mill in China proceeding well. Capacity 360,000 tonnes, start-up by the end of 2015
• 50% increase in self-adhesive labelstock coating capacity in APAC, start-up in Q2 2015
• Expansion of filmic labelstock production in Nowa Wies, Poland, start-up in Q2 2015
16 | © UPM UPM invests in the top performing plywood business by expanding the Otepää mill
• UPM will almost double the production at the Otepää plywood mill in Estonia to 90,000 m3
• Investment includes a new bio power plant at the mill
• The total investment of EUR 40 million will be completed by the end of 2016
• Enables serving the growing demand in key customer industries
17 | © UPM 3. BUSINESS PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT AND VALUE CREATION Portfolio development and value creation
• Performance: targeting top performance in each business
• Grow: focused high-return growth investments and synergistic M&A
• Simplify: best value realisation for UPM
• Consolidation in European paper market, without increasing capital
19 | © UPM 4. NEW BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT New businesses based on UPM’s development work
Annual patent filings 2009–2014 • Biofuels: renewable diesel 400 suitable for all diesel engines 350 300
250
• Biochemicals: renewable 200 drop-in alternatives for oil- based chemicals 150 100
50 • Biocomposites: for injection moulding to replace oil-based 0 raw materials
21 | © UPM CAPITAL ALLOCATION Strengths of UPM’s model
Attractive dividend
Strong cash flow Focused investments
Industry-leading Top performance balance sheet
23 | © UPM Strong cash flow
EUR million Cash flow 1 400 1,241 Cash flow 1 200 after investing 1,085 activities 1 000
800
600
400 Operating cash flow 200
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15 LTM
24 | © UPM Dividend policy based on operating cash flow
EUR per share Dividend 0,80 Dividend policy 0.70 0,70 • UPM aims to pay an attractive 0.60 0.60 0.60 dividend, 30-40% of operating 0,60 0.55 cash flow per share 0,50 0.45 0.40 0,40 Dividend for 2014
0,30 • EUR 0.70 (0.60) per share • 30% of 2014 operating cash 0,20 flow per share 0,10
0,00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 25 | © UPM Low investment needs in existing assets allow growth projects with modest total capex
EUR million Capital expenditure Estimate 1 200
Myllykoski 1 000 acquisition
Depreciation 800
Uruguay 600 acquisition
375 500 400 Strategic investments 329
200
Operational investments 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 26 | © UPM Net debt at record-low level
Net debt / EBITDA Net debt, EUR million (trailing 12 months) Net debt, EUR million Gearing % 5 000 4,5 5 000 90
4 500 4,0 4 500 80 Net debt / EBITDA Gearing 4 000 3,5 4 000 70
3 500 3,0 3 500 60
3 000 2,5 3 000 50 1.8 31 2 500 2,0 2 500 40
2 000 1,5 2 000 30 Net debt Net debt
1 500 1,0 1 500 20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15
27 | © UPM Summary
Good profitability continued in Q1 2015 • Profit improvement actions and currencies offset the market headwinds in UPM Paper ENA and UPM Energy
UPM is well positioned for earnings growth • Profit improvement programme has more than EUR 100m of further annualised impact to materialise by the end of 2015 • More than half of the growth capex has been spent, nearly all of the EUR 200m EBITDA impact is yet to come • Current exchange rates promise further tailwind
Strong cash flow and balance sheet • UPM is in a unique position to simultaneously distribute attractive dividend, implement growth projects and act on strategic opportunities
28 | © UPM
Key figures
EUR million Q1 Q1 Q4 2014 2015 2014 2014 Sales 2,486 2,481 2,531 9,868 EBITDA 325 323 334 1,306 % of sales 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.2 Operating profit (* 204 196 230 847 Profit before tax (* 182 176 216 774 Earnings per share, EUR (* 0.29 0.27 0.32 1.17 ROE, % (* 8.1 7.7 9.2 8.3 Operating cash flow 108 264 462 1,241 Net debt 2,419 2,777 2,401 2,401 Gearing, % 31 37 32 32 (* excluding special items
30 | © UPM Operating profit *) by business area EURm UPM Biorefining % of sales EURm UPM Energy % of sales EURm UPM Raflatac % of sales 120 24 100 50 50 10
100 20 80 40 40 8 80 16 60 30 30 6 60 12 40 20 20 4 40 8 20 4 20 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15
EURm UPM Paper Asia % of sales EURm UPM Paper ENA % of sales EURm UPM Plywood % of sales 50 12,5 75 6 25 20
40 10 50 4 20 16
30 7,5 25 2 15 12
20 5 0 0 10 8
10 2,5 -25 -2 5 4
0 0 -50 -4 0 0 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 31 | © UPM *) excluding special items Currency exposure
• Key currency exposures USD, GBP and JPY
• Policy to hedge an average of 50% of the estimated net currency cash flow for the next 12 months
Estimated annual foreign currency net cash flow, before hedging USD GBP JPY Others EURm 810 500 160 170
32 | © UPM Chemical pulp market
Q1 NBSK pulp price decreased 3% from Q4 Pulp inventories Q1 BHKP pulp price increased 2% from Q4 Days of USD/tonne supply 1 100 65
60 1 000 Hardwood NBSK 55 900 inventories 50 800 45 BHKP 700 40
35 600 30 500 25 400 Softwood 20 inventories 300 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: FOEX Indexes Ltd. Source: PPPC World-20 statistics
33 | © UPM Price development in the Nordic and Helsinki power markets
EUR/MWh Finnish and Nordic electricity prices 80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Coal SRMC Front Year System Front Year Helsinki Front Year
Source: Reuters
34 | © UPM Overcapacity in European graphic paper is visible in margins
EUR/t Price hardly covers the cash costs of marginal producers
Price
Cash cost of a marginal producer
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sources: PPI, RISI, Pöyry
35 | © UPM Growth in the European economy remains low
Euro zone composite leading indicator (Y/Y %) Paper demand growth (% trailing 3 month) 6,0 20
Euro zone composite 15 leading indicator 3,0 10
5
0,0 0
Graphic paper -5 demand growth -3,0 -10
-15
-6,0 -20
Sources: Cepiprint, Cepifine, OECD 36 | © UPM