Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume 31 Article 7 Issue 6 March-April

Spring 1941 The rT end of Crime in Harry Willbach

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Recommended Citation Harry Willbach, The rT end of Crime in Chicago, 31 Am. Inst. Crim. L. & Criminology 720 (1940-1941)

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology by an authorized editor of Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. THE TREND OF CRIME IN CHICAGO

Harry Willbach' Chicago, the second largest city in the localities studied. Such compari- the United States, has shared and per- sons would be valid if the arrests in- haps has even surpassed the first city, cluded in these studies were a fixed New York, in its newspaper-made no- and known ratio of all those who com- toriety as a city of iniquity and the mitted crimes. Such ratios are unas- gathering place and hunting-ground of certainable and can only be secured if the lawless. detection and arrest invariably follow In a previous study of the trend of the commission of every crime. crime in New York City' for the period The value of this study-based on from 1916 to -1936 it was shown that arrests-does not lie in the number of there was a decrease in the number of arrests or the ratio of arrests to the arrests as well as in the ratio of the population but rather in the fact that it arrests to the male population aged shows the trend over a period of time. years and upward. This trend retains its value even The present study arises out of the though it is not based on all arrests desire to ascertain whether the down- but only on those for the more import- ward trend observed for New York ant crimes which have always been City was peculiar to that locality or frowned upon by the group politic. was characteristic of similar move- It is intended at a later date to bring ments elsewhere. The present analysis, together the analyses of trends of crime relating to Chicago, will be followed by in the several jurisdictions for the pur- others for communities located in dif- pose of comparing them and securing a ferent sections of the nation. composite picture of the trend of crime Reference to these studies-already for the nation as a whole. completed or in the course of prepara- While the arrests on which this study tion-makes it imperative to caution is based, do not include all crimes .the against any attempt to make detailed omissions do not vitiate the present comparisons of the data for the differ- analysis or the conclusions drawn. The ent places. Such comparisons would group of crimes included has been con- be invalid because these analyses have stant for the entire period and is com- not been based on all crimes com- posed of the more important offenses mitted, nor on all crimes reported nor against the person and against property even on all arrests made. The meas- rights. ure used was arrests for major crimes. This study utilizes data on arrests of They, therefore, treat only part of all males, sixteen years of age and over, the persons who committed crimes in reported by the police department of

1 Capitol. Albany. N. Y. •'This Journal. Vol. XXIX. No. 1.

[ 720 ] CRIME IN CHICAGO the city of Chicago for the years of The twenty-one year period extend- 1919 to 1939 inclusive. The annual re- ing from 1919 to 1939 has generally ports of this department contain tables been viewed as a period of increasing giving the number of persons arrested criminality. At times, during this span for the various crimes. Those included of two decades, an aroused citizenry in this analysis are: has been tremendously concerned about the crime problem and focussing Crimes Against the Person attention on occasional reports of out- rageous or atrocious acts has assumed Assault and that crime in Chicago was increasing. Assault to Murder Assault with Deadly Weapon Various explanations have been of- Intimidation fered for this alleged increase. Among Kidnapping Manslaughter these were the aftermath of the World Mayhem War which brought changed standards; Murder the era of prohibition which developed Murder-Accessory to bootlegging and hi-jacking; the repeal Resisting an Officer of prohibition to which has been attri- Threat to Kidnap or Murder buted kidnapping and ; Crimes Against Property Rights and the economic displacement of the present decade which. is blamed for Confidence Game everything that cannot be placed in any Counterfeiting other category. Embezzlement The amount of crime as measured by Impersonating an Officer arrests has not been constant each year Malicious Mischief nor has it followed any simple process Obtaining Money or Goods by of continual and regular increases or False Pretense decreases from one year to the next. Perjury Receiving Stolen Goods Rather, it has been marked by fluctua- tions-ups and downs-which thus far The two major divisions adopted have eluded accurate explanation. were the broad classifications of crimes In 1919 the estimated male popula- against the person and crimes against tion for Chicago of persons sixteen property rights. The particular crimes years of age or over was 963,590. In included under each of these headings 1939, twenty-one years later, the popu- have been listed above. lation of this age group was 1,358,700, Data for the crimes of larceny, bur- an increase of 41 per cent. glary and robbery have also been In 1919 there were 11,881 persons ar- shown separately because they consti- rested for all of the crimes listed above. tute about four-fifths of all arrests In 1939 only 9,155 persons were ar- included herein as crimes against rested for these same crimes-a de- property rights. crease of 23 per cent. HARRY WILLBACH

In 1919 the number of persons ar- der study. A longer interval would rested for crimes against the person have included the war period during was 2,760. Twenty-one years later only which great changes occurred in the 2,212 persons were arrested for these composition and activities of the popu- crimes-a decrease of 19.7 per cent. lation of Chicago. In 1919 a total of 9121 persons were It should not be assumed that while arrested for crimes listed herein as be- the population increased continuously, ing against property rights. In 1939 only the number of persons arrested de- 6,943 persons were arrested for the creased continuously from each year to same crimes-a decrease of 23.9. per the next. The curve of crime or of ar- cent. rests follows no such simple or regular Between the two extremes of this pattern. same twenty-one year period arrests An examination of the data shows for larceny decreased 37.6 per cent, and that the actual number of arrests for arrests for burglary decreased 15.7 per each of the five groups of crimes went cent. Arrests for robbery increased 3.6 through a series of changes-increasing per cent. and decreasing. These periods of in- The selection of the two years for creases and decreases were not of equal which comparisons have been made is length for any particular crime. As not arbitrary but is due solely to the between different crimes these fluctua- fact that they are the beginning and the tions varied as regards frequency, dates end of the twenty-one year period un- and length of period.

THE TREND OF CRIME IN CHICAGO

Number of Males Rates per 100,000 Male Population Arrested for Aged Sixteen and Over Arrested for Crimes Crimes Crimes against Crimes against against prop- against prop- the erty Lar- Bur- Rob- the erty Lar- Bur- Rob- person rights ceny glary bery person rights ceny glary bery 1919 ...... 2760 9121 4886 1244 1214 286.4 946.6 507.1 129.1 126.0 1920 ...... 2850 9614 4713 1498 1231 290.7 980.6 480.7 152.8 125.6 1921 ...... 3691 10657 4852 1479 1507 365.2 1054.6 480.1 146.4 149.1 1922 ...... 3780 9543 4516 1073 1289 363.2 917.0 433.9 103.1 123.9 1923 ...... 3852 9343 5030 879 1001 359.7 872.5 469.7 82.1 93.5 1924 ...... 4705 10670 5167 1239 1442 427.3 969.1 469.3 112.5 131.0 1925 ...... 5113 11165 5209 1300 1528 452.0 987.0 460.5 114.9 135.1 1926 ...... 552 11768 5878 1330 1542 452.2 1013.3 506.1 114.5 132.8 1927 ...... 5538 13734 6548 1813 1779 464.8 1152.6 549.6 152.2 149.3 1928 ...... 5244 11621 5444 1420 1638 429.2 951.2 445.6 116.2 134.1 1929 ...... 5125 11733 5743 1033 1409 409.4 937.3 458.8 82.5 112.6 1930 ...... 4949 13520 6853 1474 1968 386.0 1054.6 534.6 115.0 153.5 1931 ...... 4594 14558 7481 1659 2257 356.0 1128.3 579.8 128.6 174.9 1932 ...... 3667 12672 7030 1634 2199 282.4 975.8 541.4 125.8 169.3 1933.._...... 3590 11947 6122 1597 1961 274.7 914.1 468.4 122.2 150.0 1934 ...... 3433 10135 4718 1425 1842 261.0 770.6 358.7 108.3 140.1 1935 ...... 2653 8421 4081 1151 1407 200.5 636.3 308.3 87.0 106.3 1936 ...... 2424 6632 3224 826 1044 181.9 497.6 241.9 62.0 78.3 1937 ...... 2585 6516 3133 937 1022 192.8 485.9 233.6 69.9 76.2 1938 ...... 2437 691 3081 1045 1285 180.6 515.1 228.3 77.4 95.2 1939 ...... 2216 6943 3049 1049 1258 163.1 511.0 224.4 77.2 92.6 CRIME IN CHICAGO

This examination suggests .further would be untenable for several reasons that the twenty-one year period showed each of which is sufficiently important two trends. The first terminated in in itself to offset such implication. 1927 and was marked by a rise in the 1. The press, alarmed and amazed number of arrests. The second fol- at the disclosures of the Illinois Crime lowed immediaLely and except for ar- Survey has been alert for a repetition rests in 1930 and 1931 for crimes and would openly condemn laxity on against property rights, was character- the part of any law enforcement ized by decreasing numbers. agency. Common to all of the five groups 2. The Chicago Crime Commission were the continued increases in arrests is continually watching the entire ma- from 1923 to 1927. In the latter year chinery for the administration of jus- arrests for crimes against the person tice and would speak up if any laxity were more than double the number for were shown. 1919 while in this same period there 3. The last decade has witnessed was an increase of more than 50 per cent in the number of persons arrested great advances in police science. for crimes against property rights. 4. Similar decreases have been ob- Common also to all of the five groups served in other cities. were the decreases from 1931 to 1936. Reference has been made to the con- It cannot be suggested that this de- tinuous decrease in arrests from 1931 crease is due to an increasing laxity of to 1936. The following figures are pre- the police or a breaking down of all law sented to indicate that crimes reported enforcing agencies. Such a suggestion followed the same course:

CRIMEs REPORTED 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 Robbery ...... 17,866 17,350 15,616 11,462 7,231 Burglary ...... 31,232 30,510 28,730 25,774 21,390 Larceny ...... 54,052 48,854 32,085 25,476 21,633 TOTAL ...... 103,150 96,714 76,431 62,712 50,254

It is apparent that the reports of COMPARISON WITH 1932 FOR CaMIES OF these three crimes to the police de- ROBBERY, BURGLARY AND LARCENY creased 51.3 per cent during the period Arrests Crimes Reported indicated. During this same period the 1933 -11.9% -6.2% number of persons arrested for these 1934 -26.5% -25.9% same crimes decreased 53.1 per cent. 1935 -38.9% -39.2% This close agreement holds not only 1936 -53.1% -51.3% for the entire period but also for each year. A comparison of arrests for these The close similarity in the figures for three crimes and the reports of such each year justify and validate the use crimes to the police gives the following of arrests as a measure for determining results when compared with 1932: the trend of crime. HARRY WILLBACH

The year by year data on the number until 1927 when the largest number of of arrests for the several groups of arrests were shown for this crime. The crimes can be summarized as follows: next two years registered decreases Arrests for crimes against the person which were followed by increases for increased continuously up to 1927. 1930 and 1931. Thereafter and through Thereafter the numbers decreased each 1936 the course of the arrests was year, except in 1937 when there was a steadily downward. During the last slight rise. The lowest figure reported three years the figures have risen some- during the entire twenty-one year pe- what. The arrests for this crime in riod was for 1939 when the arrests for 1939 were about five-sixths of those for this group of offenses was four-fifths of 1919 and seven-twelfths of those for what were reported in 1919 and two 1927. fifths of what they were in 1927. The general pattern of the arrests for Arrests for crimes against property robbery followed fairly closely that rights increased from 1919 to 1927 ex- shown for burglary. The largest num- cept for the years of 1922 and 1923 ber was reported for 1931. This crime when decreases were noted. After a de- is the only one of those listed in the crease from 1927 to 1928 there set in a table which showed a larger number of new upward surge which terminated in arrests in 1939 than in 1919. 1931 when the arrests for this group of crimes reached the highest point. The chart of the number of arrests Thereafter there were continuous de- shows the yearly fluctuations. How-' creases through 1937 which were fol- ever, because of the many rises and lowed by a slight increase in 1938 with falls in the arrests the data was a further almost imperceptible decrease smoothed by mathematical methods so in 1939. The reported arrests for 1939 that a continuous straight line shows the were about three-fourths of what they trend for the entire twenty-one years. were in 1919 and two-fifths of the num- This procedure when applied to crimes ber shown for 1931. against the person yielded the equation Y--3831-68.9X, using 1929 as the ori- Arrests for larceny fluctuated until gin. This not only establishes the 1922 and then rose continuously until course of the arrests for 1931, except for a decrease in 1928. these crimes as being downward but also indicates the Since 1931-when the arrests for this average yearly decrease. crime were the highest for the twenty- one year period-there were continu- Similar methods applied to the other ous decreases from year to year. The groups of crimes gave the following arrests reported for 1939 were five- equations: eighths of the figure shown for 1919 Crimes against and two-fifths of that for 1931. property rights Y=10346-127.4X Arrests for burglary increased from Larceny Y=5083.7-70.7X 1919 to 1920 and then decreased to 1923 Burglary Y= 1290.7-10X which was followed by continual rises Robbery Y=1515.4+6.2X CRIME IN CHICAGO

From the above it will be observed the period, in 1939, this figure was 511 that the course of the actual number of -a decrease of 46 per cent. arrests was downward for all of the The ratios of arrests for larceny, groups of crimes except robbery in burglary and robbery decreased 55.7, which case it was slightly upward. 40.2, and 26.5 percent respectively. Thus far only the absolute numbers of These ratios, when plotted, also arrests have been considered. Cogni- showed a series of changes-increasing zance must be taken, however, of the and decreasing. These fluctuations, fact that the population of Chicago has however, were not as marked as those been increasing. Certainly, in measur- shown for the actual numbers of ar- ing crime as a social phenomenon it is rests. important to relate arrests to the size The ratios of the population ar- of the population. Through the cour- rested for crimes against the person tesy of the Board of Health of Chicago and crimes against property rights also there was made available the estimated indicated an increase for each year in male population sixteen years of age the period from 1923 to 1927 and a and over. By dividing male arrests .continuous decrease from 1931 to 1936. (sixteen years of age and over) by the The highest ratios of arrests to the population, per capita rates of arrest male population sixteen years of age were secured. and over were as follows: Comparing 1919 with 1939, as was Crimes against done with the actual numbers of ar- the person 1927 464.8 per 100,000 rests, it was found that the .per capita Crimes against ratios also showed a decrease. This property rights 1927 1152.6 per 100,000 decrease was much more marked than Larceny 1931 579.8 per 100,000 for the actual numbers because the Burglary 1920 152.8 per 100,000 and population increased steadily. 1927 152.2 per 100,000 In 1919 there were arrested foi- Robbery 1931 174.9 per 100,000 crimes against the person 286.4 out of The ratios of the population arrested every 100,000 of the male population for crimes against the person showed sixteen years of age and over. In 1939, an almost continuous increase up to as a result of both the increase in the 1927 which was followed by an almost population and the decrease in the ac- uninterrupted decrease through 1939. tual number of arrests, this figure The curve of arrests for crimes dropped to 163.1 or 43.1 per cent less against property rights showed two than in 1919. high points. These are the years 1927 At the beginning of the twenty-one and 1931. In the latter year the ratio year period arrests for crimes against of the population arrested for these property rights were 946.6 persons out crimes approache,. vithin 24.3 points the of every 100,000 of the male population all time high of 1927 It receded in the aged sixteen and over. At the end of next year and continued to decrease HARRY WILLBACH

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L CRIME IN CHICAGO through 1937 which was followed by a 41 per cent from 1919 to 1939, the slight increase. arrests for a constant group of crimes Since 1927 was the peak year for -the major crimes-decreased 23 per crimes against the person and crimes cent. against property rights it is of interest Arrests for crimes against the per- to compare the data for that year with son decreased 19.7 per cent during this that for 1939. interval while arrests for crimes In 1927 the arrests for crimes against against property rights decreased 23.9 the person were 464.8 per 100,000 of per cent. the male population aged sixteen years The number of persons arrested for or over. In 1939 this figure was 163.1 the several groups of crimes did not -a decrease of 65 per cent. follow any simple or regular pattern Arrests for crimes against property but showed a series of changes-in- rights dropped from 1152.6 in 1927 to creasing and decreasing. 511.0 in 1939-a decrease of 55.7 per In general there were two trends- cent. an increase which ierminated in 1927 The ratios of the population arrested and a decrease from then to the end of for the several groups of crimes were the twenty-one year period. smoothed by the same methods that were used with the actual numbers. The validity of using arrests as the The equations derived showed that the unit for measuring the trend of crime trend of arrests on a per capita basis is borne out by the close agreement in was downward for all of the groups. the decreases of both arrests and re- These equations were: potted crimes for the period of 1932- 1936. Crimes against Smoothed curves of the actual num- the person Y=322.8-10.6X ber of persons arrested showed that Crimes against the course of arrests during the period property rights Y=870.1-24.4X of 1919-1939 was downward for crimes Larceny Y=427.7-12.5X against the person, crimes against Burglary Y=108.5-2.7X property rights, larceny, and burglary. Robbery Y=126.2-1.5X For robbery it was slightly upward. Findings Translating the number of arrests The number of persons arrested is a into ratios of the male population aged valid measure for determining the sixteen years and over, the decrease trend of --rime if the crimes included in arrests from 1919 to 1939 was even have been constant for the entire more marked because the population period and constitute the more impor- increased over this period. tant offenses. The smoothed curves of these ratios While the male population of Chi- showed a definite downward trend for cago aged sixteen and over increased all of the five groups of crimes.