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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Annual Report 2018
2018Annual Report Annual Report July 1, 2017–June 30, 2018 Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065 tel 212.434.9400 1777 F Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 tel 202.509.8400 www.cfr.org [email protected] OFFICERS DIRECTORS David M. Rubenstein Term Expiring 2019 Term Expiring 2022 Chairman David G. Bradley Sylvia Mathews Burwell Blair Effron Blair Effron Ash Carter Vice Chairman Susan Hockfield James P. Gorman Jami Miscik Donna J. Hrinak Laurene Powell Jobs Vice Chairman James G. Stavridis David M. Rubenstein Richard N. Haass Vin Weber Margaret G. Warner President Daniel H. Yergin Fareed Zakaria Keith Olson Term Expiring 2020 Term Expiring 2023 Executive Vice President, John P. Abizaid Kenneth I. Chenault Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer Mary McInnis Boies Laurence D. Fink James M. Lindsay Timothy F. Geithner Stephen C. Freidheim Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, Stephen J. Hadley Margaret (Peggy) Hamburg and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair James Manyika Charles Phillips Jami Miscik Cecilia Elena Rouse Nancy D. Bodurtha Richard L. Plepler Frances Fragos Townsend Vice President, Meetings and Membership Term Expiring 2021 Irina A. Faskianos Vice President, National Program Tony Coles Richard N. Haass, ex officio and Outreach David M. Cote Steven A. Denning Suzanne E. Helm William H. McRaven Vice President, Philanthropy and Janet A. Napolitano Corporate Relations Eduardo J. Padrón Jan Mowder Hughes John Paulson Vice President, Human Resources and Administration Caroline Netchvolodoff OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS, Vice President, Education EMERITUS & HONORARY Shannon K. O’Neil Madeleine K. Albright Maurice R. Greenberg Vice President and Deputy Director of Studies Director Emerita Honorary Vice Chairman Lisa Shields Martin S. -
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2013 Grand Hyatt Hotel San Antonio, Texas
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2013 Grand Hyatt Hotel San Antonio, Texas THE PRIDE OF TEXAS BUSINESS WELCOME Mark M. Johnson Chairman, Texas Business Hall of Fame Edward E. Whitacre, Jr. Master of Ceremonies RECOGNITION OF TEXAS BUSINESS HALL OF FAME MEMBERS RECOGNITION OF 2013 INDUCTEES INVOCATION Reverend Trey H. Little DINNER RECOGNITION OF 2013 SCHOLARSHIP RECIPIENTS HALL OF FAME INDUCTION CEREMONY CLOSING REMARKS Mark M. Johnson Jordan Cowman Chairman, 2014, Texas Business Hall of Fame 2013 Inductees to the Texas Business Hall of Fame Charlie Amato Joseph M. “Jody” Grant Chairman/Co-Founder Chairman Emeritus and Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. Gary Dudley Dallas President/Co-Founder SWBC H-E-B San Antonio Represented by Craig Boyan President, COO Tom Dobson San Antonio Chairman Whataburger Rex W. Tillerson San Antonio Chairman and CEO Exxon Mobil Corporation Paul Foster Irving Executive Chairman Western Refining, Inc. El Paso Charlie Amato & Gary Dudley Chairman/Co-Founder & President/Co-Founder SWBC | San Antonio Charlie Amato and Gary Dudley, Co-founders of SWBC, have had a long friendship. Through this friendship, they established SWBC, a company with more than three decades of dedication to not just great business and customer service, but also giving back to their community. Amato and Dudley met in grade school and were reunited in their college years. Both men graduated from Sam Houston State University with Bachelors of Business Administration degrees. After graduation they went their separate ways. Dudley became a coach and worked in the Houston school district for nine months before he was drafted into the armed forces. He spent six months on active duty with the US Marines (and six years as a reservist) before returning to coaching for another year. -
Malley As Iran Envoy: Hawks and Progressives Spar Over Possible Nomination
Malley as Iran Envoy: Hawks and Progressives Spar over Possible Nomination Reports that Robert Malley, lead Iran negotiator under Obama, is being considered for envoy position sparks outrage from conservatives By Ali Harb Region: USA Global Research, January 28, 2021 Theme: Intelligence Middle East Eye 26 January 2021 All Global Research articles including the E-Book can be read in 27 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version). *** Despite deep divisions plaguing American politics, the Republican pushback against President Joe Biden’s cabinet nominees has been relatively quiet. Days into the new administration, the Senate confirmed Biden’s secretaries of state, treasury and defence, as well as intelligence chief with bipartisan support as other nominees undergo routine hearings. A fight may be looming, however, over the potential nominationRobert of Malley, an outspoken proponent of diplomacy, as the administration’s envoy for Iran. Malley, an Obama-era diplomat, leads the International Crisis Group think tank, which focuses on preventing and resolving violent conflicts. His possible appointment has faced an early backlash from conservatives and earned the praise of advocates of the Iran nuclear deal. Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), said a well-funded and coordinated “network” of anti-Iran hawks that has been smearing advocates of diplomacy with Tehran has “drawn the line” on Malley. “Rob Malley was the Obama administration’s chief nuclear negotiator – someone has experience negotiating with the Iranians, who is an actual diplomat,” Toossi told MEE. “These attacks are part of a broader effort against diplomacy with Iran, against reversing Trump’s disastrous approach towards Iran.” Backlash The chatter, opposition and praise for Malley started last week when Jewish Insider reported that he was being considered for the position of special envoy for Iran. -
Filed by Exxon Mobil Corporation Pursuant to Rule 425 of the Securities Act of 1933 and Deemed Filed Pursuant to Rule 14A-12 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Filed by Exxon Mobil Corporation Pursuant to Rule 425 of the Securities Act of 1933 and deemed filed pursuant to Rule 14a-12 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Subject Company: XTO Energy Inc. (Commission File No.: 1-10662) Event Name: Exxon Mobil to buy XTO Energy Conference Call Event Date/Time: 2009-12-14/4:00PM GMT P: Operator C: Rex Tillerson; Exxon Mobil Corporation; Chairman and CEO C: David Rosenthal; Exxon Mobil Corporation; VP of IR and Secretary P: Doug Terreson; ISI Group; Analyst P: Robert Kessler; Simmons & Company International; Analyst P: Doug Leggate; Merrill Lynch; Analyst P: Neil McMahon; Sanford C. Bernstein & Company, Inc.; Analyst P: Mark Gilman; The Benchmark Company; Analyst P: Paul Sankey; Deutsche Bank; Analyst P: Jason Gammel; Macquarie Research Equities; Analyst P: Pavel Molchanov; Raymond James; Analyst P: Christina Cheng; Barclays Capital; Analyst PRESENTATION Operator: Good day, and welcome to this ExxonMobil Investor Relations call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Rex Tillerson. Please go ahead, sir. Rex Tillerson: Good morning, and I want to thank all of you for joining us today. As you are aware from this morning's press release and news conference, ExxonMobil and XTO Energy Inc. have announced an all-stock transaction valued at $41 billion. This agreement between ExxonMobil and XTO brings together two organizations with highly complementary skills and capabilities. XTO is a leading US unconventional natural gas and oil producer, with an outstanding resource base, strong operational expertise and highly skilled employees. -
In the Supreme Court of the United States
No. In the Supreme Court of the United States DONALD J. TRUMP, ET AL., PETITIONERS v. INTERNATIONAL REFUGEE ASSISTANCE PROJECT, A PROJECT OF THE URBAN JUSTICE CENTER, INC., ON BEHALF OF ITSELF AND ITS CLIENTS, ET AL. ON PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARI TO THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE FOURTH CIRCUIT PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARI JEFFREY B. WALL Acting Solicitor General Counsel of Record CHAD A. READLER Acting Assistant Attorney General EDWIN S. KNEEDLER Deputy Solicitor General HASHIM M. MOOPPAN Deputy Assistant Attorney General JONATHAN C. BOND Assistant to the Solicitor General AUGUST E. FLENTJE Special Counsel DOUGLAS N. LETTER SHARON SWINGLE H. THOMAS BYRON III LOWELL V. STURGILL JR. Attorneys Department of Justice Washington, D.C. 20530-0001 [email protected] (202) 514-2217 QUESTIONS PRESENTED The Constitution and Acts of Congress confer on the President broad authority to prohibit or restrict the entry of aliens outside the United States when he deems it in the Nation’s interest. Exercising that authority, the President issued Executive Order No. 13,780, 82 Fed. Reg. 13,209 (Mar. 9, 2017). Section 2(c) of that Order suspends for 90 days the entry of foreign nationals from six countries that Congress or the Executive previously designated as presenting heightened terrorism-related risks, subject to case-by-case waivers. The district court issued, and the court of appeals upheld, a preliminary injunction barring enforcement of Section 2(c) against any person worldwide, because both courts concluded that the suspension violates the Establishment Clause. The questions presented are: 1. -
Trump's Generals
STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY - PERSPECTIVE Trump’s Generals: A Natural Experiment in Civil-Military Relations JAMES JOYNER Abstract President Donald Trump’s filling of numerous top policy positions with active and retired officers he called “my generals” generated fears of mili- tarization of foreign policy, loss of civilian control of the military, and politicization of the military—yet also hope that they might restrain his worst impulses. Because the generals were all gone by the halfway mark of his administration, we have a natural experiment that allows us to com- pare a Trump presidency with and without retired generals serving as “adults in the room.” None of the dire predictions turned out to be quite true. While Trump repeatedly flirted with civil- military crises, they were not significantly amplified or deterred by the presence of retired generals in key roles. Further, the pattern continued in the second half of the ad- ministration when “true” civilians filled these billets. Whether longer-term damage was done, however, remains unresolved. ***** he presidency of Donald Trump served as a natural experiment, testing many of the long- debated precepts of the civil-military relations (CMR) literature. His postelection interviewing of Tmore than a half dozen recently retired four- star officers for senior posts in his administration unleashed a torrent of columns pointing to the dangers of further militarization of US foreign policy and damage to the military as a nonpartisan institution. At the same time, many argued that these men were uniquely qualified to rein in Trump’s worst pro- clivities. With Trump’s tenure over, we can begin to evaluate these claims. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy. -
The US Perspective on NATO Under Trump: Lessons of the Past and Prospects for the Future
The US perspective on NATO under Trump: lessons of the past and prospects for the future JOYCE P. KAUFMAN Setting the stage With a new and unpredictable administration taking the reins of power in Wash- ington, the United States’ future relationship with its European allies is unclear. The European allies are understandably concerned about what the change in the presidency will mean for the US relationship with NATO and the security guar- antees that have been in place for almost 70 years. These concerns are not without foundation, given some of the statements Trump made about NATO during the presidential campaign—and his description of NATO on 15 January 2017, just days before his inauguration, as ‘obsolete’. That comment, made in a joint interview with The Times of London and the German newspaper Bild, further exacerbated tensions between the United States and its closest European allies, although Trump did claim that the alliance is ‘very important to me’.1 The claim that it is obsolete rested on Trump’s incorrect assumption that the alliance has not been engaged in the fight against terrorism, a position belied by NATO’s support of the US conflict in Afghanistan. Among the most striking observations about Trump’s statements on NATO is that they are contradicted by comments made in confirmation hear- ings before the Senate by General James N. Mattis (retired), recently confirmed as Secretary of Defense, who described the alliance as ‘essential for Americans’ secu- rity’, and by Rex Tillerson, now the Secretary of State.2 It is important to note that the concerns about the future relationships between the United States and its NATO allies are not confined to European governments and policy analysts. -
U.S.-Iran Tensions and Implications for U.S. Policy
U.S.-Iran Tensions and Implications for U.S. Policy Updated July 29, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R45795 SUMMARY R45795 U.S.-Iran Tensions and Implications for July 29, 2019 U.S. Policy Kenneth Katzman Since May 2019, U.S.-Iran tensions have escalated. The Trump Administration, following its Specialist in Middle 2018 withdrawal from the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran (Joint Comprehensive Eastern Affairs Plan of Action, JCPOA), has taken several steps in its campaign of applying “maximum pressure” on Iran. Iran and Iran-linked forces have targeted commercial ships and infrastructure Kathleen J. McInnis in U.S. partner countries. U.S. officials have stated that Iran-linked threats to U.S. forces and Specialist in International interests, and attacks on several commercial ships in May and June 2019, have prompted the Security Administration to send additional military assets to the region to deter future Iranian actions. However, Iran’s downing of a U.S. unmanned aerial aircraft might indicate that Iran has not been deterred, to date. Clayton Thomas Analyst in Middle Eastern President Donald Trump has said he prefers a diplomatic solution over moving toward military Affairs confrontation, including a revised JCPOA that encompasses not only nuclear issues but also broader U.S. concerns about Iran’s support for regional armed factions. During May-June 2019, the Administration has placed further pressure on Iran’s economy. By expanding U.S. sanctions against Iran, including sanctioning its mineral and petrochemical exports, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i. Iranian leaders have refused to talk directly with the Administration, and Iran has begun to exceed some nuclear limitations stipulated in the JCPOA. -
Iran Case File (April 2019)
IRAN CASE FILE July 2020 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 The Executive Summary .............................................................4 Internal Affairs .........................................................................7 The Ideological File ......................................................................... 8 I. Supporters of Velayat-e Faqih and the Call to End the US Presence in Iraq .......................................................................... 8 II. Coronavirus Amid Muharram Gatherings in Najaf ............................ 9 The Political File ............................................................................12 I. The Bill to Hold Rouhani Accountable and the Conservatives’ Call for Him to Be Deposed .......................................12 II. The Supreme Leader Saves Rouhani From Interrogation and Rejects His Ouster .....................................................13 The Economic File ..........................................................................16 I. History of Economic Relations Between Iran and China .....................16 II. The Nature and Provisions of the 25-year Partnership Agreement ..... 17 III. Prospects of the Long Term Iranian-Chinese Partnership .................18 The Military File............................................................................ 20 Arab Affairs ............................................................................25 -
Du Bist Gefeuert! Diese Mitarbeiter Trumps Verließen Das Weiße Haus
Du bist gefeuert! Diese Mitarbeiter Trumps verließen das Weiße Haus Chad Wolf RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Minister für Innere Sicherheit Betsy DeVos RÜCKTRITT – ehemalige Erziehungsministerin Elaine Chao RÜCKTRITT – ehemalige Verkehrsministerin William Barr RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Justizminister RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliges Mitglied der Coronavirus-Task- Dr. Scott Atlas force des Weißen Hauses GEFEUERT – ehemalige wichtigste Anwältin im Rechtsteam Sidney Powell von Trumps Wahlkampfkampagne GEFEUERT – ehemaliger Direktor der Behörde für Cyber- Chris Krebs security und Infrastruktur Mark Esper GEFEUERT – ehemaliger Verteidigungsminister GEFEUERT – ehemaliger Wahlkampfmanager von Donald Brad Parscale Trump Rick Perry RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Energieminister John Bolton RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Nationaler Sicherheitsberater Dan Coats RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Nachrichtendienstkoordinator Alexander Acosta RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Arbeitsminister RÜCKTRITT – ehemalige Pressesprecherin des Weißen Sarah Huckabee Sanders Hauses RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Stellvertretender Generalstaats- Rod Rosenstein anwalt Randolph Alles GEFEUERT – ehemaliger Direktor des Geheimdienstes Kristjen Nielsen RÜCKTRITT – ehemalige Ministerin für Innere Sicherheit RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger Administrator von FEMA (Federal Brock Long Emergency Management Agency, der Bundesagentur für Katastrophenschutz) James Mattis RÜCKTRITT – ehemaliger US-Verteidigungsminister GEFEUERT – ehemalige Assisstentin des Präsidenten Omarosa Manigault und Kommunikationsdirektorin des Büros des Weißen Newman Hauses für