2010, according to SWS Page 1 of 3

Column for Philippine Daily Inquirer PDI 11-03, 20 Jan 2011 [for publication on 22 Jan 2011]

2010, according to SWS

Mahar Mangahas

Surveys as history. Each January, Social Weather Stations, in partnership with the Asian Institute of Management’s Policy Center (APC), reviews the past year, according to our surveys. The 2011 SWS Annual Survey Review, the eleventh since 2002, was publicly presented yesterday, January 21st, at the AIM Conference Center in .

It began by recalling that a year ago (after the “made in Quiapo” thing), presidential-candidate Noynoy Aquino wrote us (January 20, 2010): “For 25 years, Social Weather Stations has been and still is a competent and respectable social research institution. We remain firm in our belief that Social Weather Stations and all its officers remain true to their mission to deliver true and competent service to the Filipino public.” Of course, SWS sent thanks, and assured him of continuing to do surveys properly, as always, since the time of President Cory Aquino.

The election race. Election years are when survey researchers should prove themselves. In the presidential race, SWS’ five surveys from January to early May showed that Noynoy’s initial big lead in 2009 narrowed up to February 2010, but then recovered strongly, and was no longer threatened.

In the vice-presidential race, started the year in third place, but rose steadily, taking second place from in April, and tieing for first place by early May. This momentum made his victory on May 10th no surprise to survey watchers.

In early May 2010, 64 percent of voters were aware of election surveys, a jump from 48 percent in early May 2007. As in 2007, relatively few voters (15 percent) said the surveys had influenced them, with a balance between those who went for favorites, and those who went for underdogs.

The TV5/SWS exit poll. For the first time in Philippine history, a statistical sample of voters was polled in the open, at least 50 meters (a legal

M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 11-03 Jan 22 – “2010, according to SWS” 2010, according to SWS Page 2 of 3 requirement) from voting centers (VCs). From 802 randomly chosen VCs, SWS interviewed an unprecedentedly massive total of 52,573 voters.

The TV5/SWS exit poll’s average absolute differences from Comelec percentages proved to be only 0.401 of a point in the presidential count, and only 0.399 of a point in the VP-count.

On whether “platform” or “personality” was more important for choosing their president, the two answers scored equally, at 46 percent.

Whereas Roxas got 65 percent of the Noynoy votes, Binay got 73 percent of the Erap votes, and outscored Roxas among voters for , , and all other presidential candidates. Roxas outscored Binay by 74-18 among Iglesia ni Cristo voters; but Binay outscored Roxas by 46-18 among the much more numerous Muslim voters.

In the senatorial count, the correlation of exit poll ranks with the Comelec ranks was 99.2 percent, considering all candidates. The exit poll called all twelve winners correctly.

The people’s evaluation. The satisfaction of voters and poll workers (polled separately in June 2010) with the conduct of the elections was much higher in 2010 than in 2007; the speedy count was the outstanding factor.

Before the election, expectations of election irregularities were just as high as in past years. After the election, the proportions who witnessed various irregularities were fewer – except for vote-buying – than before.

Public anxieties about possible election sabotage or counting machine failure predominated before the election, but not after it.

Satisfaction with democracy. In 2010, at last, the post-presidential- election satisfaction with the way democracy works reached the high levels of 1992 and 1998, after being conspicuously absent in 2004. (For me, this is the single most significant survey result of 2010.)

Governance. PNoy’s high honeymoon numbers are normal, similar to those of Fidel Ramos and . Gloria Arroyo, who had no honeymoon, was the only absolutely unpopular president in Philippine polling history, with her final six years unblemished by a positive rating.

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Special issues. The “cafeteria-type” program for family planning is popular, regardless of religion and churchgoing regularity. The August 23 hostage crisis brought dissatisfaction with both the government and the media. The rating of government performance on the Maguindano massacre case worsened from -2 in December 2009 to -12 in September 2010.

Hunger and poverty. The hunger percentage was 21 in 2010Q1, 21 in 2010Q2, 16 in 2010Q3, and 18 in 2010Q4 -- all well above the average of 13.7 percent since 1998.

The Self-Rated Poverty percentage was 43 in 2010Q1, 50 in 2010Q2, 48 in 2010Q3, and 49 in 2010Q4; annual averages during 2001-2009 ranged between 49 and 63.

Quality of life trends. In the latter part of 2010, the gap of Losers over Gainers fell very sharply, to merely 5 points by November 2010. On personal futures, the spread of Optimists over Pessimists rose sharply, to 35 points by November 2010. On the general economic future, where Pessimism usually prevails, Optimists exceeded Pessimists by 31 points in November 2010.

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The SWS Annual Survey Reviews, 2011 Edition CD, a compilation of all survey reviews up to the present, is available at SWS, 52 Malingap St., Sikatuna Village, Quezon City, for P150. It includes “The TV5-SWS Exit Poll: May 10, 2010 Elections”, from the SWS Research Forum of September 24, 2010, and “The People’s Evaluation of the May 2010 Automated Elections: Six SWS National Surveys of 2010”, presented to the Suffrage and Electoral Reforms Committee, House of Representatives, on September 29, 2010. Contact Marco Mercado at [email protected], (632) 924-4456 or (632) 9244465.

Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or [email protected].

M. Mangahas, Social Climate, PDI 11-03 Jan 22 – “2010, according to SWS”