Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis

MAY 2018 MAY

CONFRONTING THE GLOBAL FORCED MIGRATION CRISIS

A Report of Task Force Cochairs the CSIS Task Secretary Tom Ridge Force on the The Honorable Gayle Smith

Global Forced Project Director Migration Crisis Daniel F. Runde

Principal Authors Erol K. Yayboke Aaron N. Milner

MAY 2018

CONFRONTING THE GLOBAL FORCED MIGRATION CRISIS

TASK FORCE COCHAIRS Secretary Tom Ridge The Honorable Gayle Smith

PROJECT DIRECTOR Daniel F. Runde

PRINCIPAL AUTHORS Erol K. Yayboke Aaron N. Milner

A REPORT OF THE CSIS Task Force on the Global Forced Migration Crisis and The CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development

Lanham • Boulder • New York • London ABOUT CONTENTS CSIS

For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and Interna- IV Acknowledgments tional Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS schol- II ars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy V Executive Summary solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. VIII CSIS Task Force on the Global Forced Migration Crisis

CSIS is a nonprofit organization headquartered in Wash- Letter from the Cochairs ington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and 2 Introduction anticipate change.

Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire 22 Chapter I: A Global Crisis with Domestic Consequences and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding Spotlight on National Security ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions 38 Chapter II: Forced from Home focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate 50 Chapter III: The Journey to global health and economic integration. Spotlight on the Private Sector Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s 66 Chapter IV: Arrival in a New Home president and chief executive officer since 2000. 76 Chapter V: Taking Action CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). 82 Annex A: Glossary

ISBN: 978-1-4422-8075-5 (pb); 978-1-4422-8076-2 (eBook) 85 Annex C: The Global Compacts

87 Annex D: Additional Views

88 Annex E: List of Entities Consulted for This Report

91 About the Project Director and Authors III Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com ACKNOWLEDGMENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The CSIS Project on Prosperity and De- Galen, Katelyn Gough, Reid Hamel, Vana The size and scope of the global forced mi- Addressing root causes—and the underdevelopment (PPD) director and the report Hammond, Cindy Huang, Minh Lemau, gration1 crisis are unprecedented. Almost velopment and poor governance so often authors would like to thank a series of indi- Jana Mason, Ewen Macleod, Scott Miller, 66 million people worldwide have been at their core—requires longer-term, strate- IV viduals for their invaluable contributions to Lester Munson, Yolanda Ramirez, Bill Re- forced from home by conflict.2 If recent gic thinking. It requires refocusing efforts this report. insch, Conor Savoy, and Amanda Trocola. trends continue, this figure could increase on strategies that leverage and go beyond Annex E includes organizations consulted to between 180 and 320 million people by foreign assistance. Strategies to confront To the countless forced migrants who throughout the research process; while 2030. This global crisis already poses se- the root causes of forced migration must spoke directly with the research team in there are too many people to name here, rious challenges to economic growth and make use of diplomatic, national security, Bangladesh, Jordan, Senegal, Sweden, we are grateful to each person at these risks to stability and national security, as and political tools while also addressing Switzerland, Turkey, Uganda, and across organizations who took time out of their well as an enormous human toll affecting structural issues that require real, long-term the United States, we are humbled by your busy schedules to meet with us and share tens of millions of people. These issues are development, economic growth, and op- strength and determination. Thank you for their expertise. on track to get worse; without significant portunity creation. An “all hands-on deck” sharing your stories with us. course correction soon, the forced migra- approach—including private-sector actors, To the countless people and organizations The authors would like to thank their tion issues confronted today will seem sim- public and private foundations, and nation- who assisted the research team in organiz- ple decades from now. CSIS colleagues Isabel Gonzalez, Chris ing this study in countries around the world, al, multinational, and global institutions— Metzger, Sundar Ramanujam, and Jena we greatly appreciate your generosity. Spe- People in almost every region of the world must be used to mobilize the power of the Santoro, for their endless research sup- cial thanks to Bulent Aliriza, Simon Marot are being forced from home by armed con- private sector that is often best positioned port. Special thanks to CSIS interns MacK- Touloung Chadop, Shane Middleton, and flict and violence, persecution, political to confront key root causes of the forced enzie Hammond, Brunilda Kosta, Beki David Woessner, who all went above and oppression, economic malfeasance, en- migration crisis. While there are clear, evi- San Martin, Casey Sword, and Shelliann beyond to help the team complete particu- vironmental, climate, and human-induced dence-based reasons for private-sector en- Wittock. Thank you to CSIS Senior Associ- larly challenging missions. The director and disasters, or food insecurity and famine. gagement, there are grave and broad con- ate Michael Levett, who not only led fact- authors also express gratitude to Lana Bay- Common threads among these root causes sequences to not being part of a productive finding missions in multiple countries, but das, Shannon Green, and Lauren Mooney, of forced migration are underdevelopment solution. Increasing global forced migration continually challenged us to think big and and the CSIS Human Rights Initiative for and poor governance. Yet, our efforts to has the potential to economically, socially, ask hard questions. producing Annex A (a glossary) and for re- confront the crisis continue to be dispro- and politically destabilize countries and entire regions, thereby putting existing opera- To the task force cochairs, Governor Tom viewing the report at various stages. Thank portionately reactive rather than proactive tions and investments at risk while limiting Ridge and the Honorable Gayle Smith, we you to Development Initiatives for the assis- in addressing these and other core issues. opportunities for future growth. offer our sincerest gratitude. Your direction, tance with data and to the CSIS Dracopoulos All too often this more narrow focus leads iDeas Lab, in particular Caroline Amenabar, to one-off foreign assistance programs that insight, and unwavering support for such an Ultimately, no country can confront this for making the report come alive. rely on yearly replenishments as armed important endeavor was invaluable and is a crisis alone. A coalition led by the United testament to your many years of dedicated conflicts and other root causes entrench Finally, this report would not have been themselves. In the United States, nearly 13 States and its allies represents the best efforts to make the world a better place. possible without the generous support of hope for leadership in the global forced mi- The director and authors would also like percent of all foreign assistance is spent the Ford Foundation. We are grateful that on humanitarian relief, a significant portion gration crisis. U.S. leadership remains feasi- to thank the task force members for con- you have entrusted CSIS with such an im- ble and necessary, especially if it wants to vening on short notice, offering broad and of which is spent addressing symptoms of portant undertaking. forced migration. Worse, more than 10 per- shape the way the world responds to this unique expertise, being patient with the challenge in a manner that also serves U.S. process, providing constructive feedback cent of all foreign assistance (and a much interests. The world continues to look to the on and content for the report, and ultimate- greater percentage of funds meant to United States for leadership and solutions ly contributing in innumerable other ways. confront the global forced migration crisis abroad) is now spent in developed coun- to this global issue, and helping confront Thank you to the many outside experts tries receiving forced migrants, a vast in- the crisis strengthens U.S. claims to con- V who reviewed the report, offered gener- crease from just 10 years ago. The bottom tinue to lead the world. The United States ous feedback, and helped ensure that the line is that we are spending more and more should broaden the scope of its collective report not only pushed boundaries, but of our limited foreign assistance resources efforts beyond the tactical and reactive, stayed true to decades of work on these on programs that—while providing critical seeing the world through a more strategic issues: Christina Bache, Lana Baydas, life-saving support to vulnerable people— lens colored by the challenges posed—and Clarisa Bencomo, Patricia Blasquez, Liz address symptoms and not the root causes opportunities created—by the forced mi- Cedillo-Pereira, Kimberly Flowers, Susan of forced migration. gration crisis at home and abroad. U.S. policies and actions send strong sig- for viewing the crisis and actionable ideas forced from home, including armed con- entrepreneurial ecosystems. Mirroring the nals to the world. Unilateral disengage- to confront it. This report presents the find- flict and violence, political persecution, end of the path for some forced migrants, ments—from UN-led global efforts or cuts ings of the task force, significant desk re- natural and human-induced disasters, and Chapter IV discusses considerations for to budgets and refugee resettlement ef- search, and field research in Bangladesh, food insecurity. Chapter III focuses on the people arriving in a new home and for the forts—could reduce burden sharing and Jordan, Senegal, Sweden, Switzerland, Tur- perilous journey faced by forced migrants, communities that receive them. These con- collective action toward a shared prob- key, Uganda, and cities across the United including the shadows into which they can siderations include resettlement (and the fall, how transit routes are becoming des- extremely thorough vetting of those arriv- VI lem at precisely the moment that they are States including Dallas, Detroit, Los Ange- needed the most. Proposed budget cuts to les, and San Diego. tinations themselves, the plight of the in- ing in the United States) and integration foreign assistance may be tempting for the ternally displaced, and the importance of into new communities, with a special focus United States in the short term but risk cre- The Introduction to this report provides im- host communities. A subsequent spotlight on the role of cities. ating greater problems and greater flows portant information explaining the crisis, in- on the private sector presents reasons why of people later; doing so could make bad cluding these eight facts you need to know the private sector should care about forced Though actionable ideas worthy of broad consideration are presented throughout situations worse while weakening our allies about forced migration: migration, how it can engage in ways that the report, Chapter V focuses on four big and weakening our security in the future. At benefit the bottom line in addition to corpo- 1. Current forced migration levels are un- ideas and actions to implement them. the same time, some countries (e.g., Rus- rate social responsibility, strategic financing precedented (page 10). sia, China, and Saudi Arabia) will continue gaps and constraints, and the potential of to exacerbate the root causes of forced mi- 2. Protracted displacement is the new nor- gration while simultaneously doing little to mal (page 11). address its symptoms. The United States, 3. Developing countries are bearing the IDEA 1 its allies, and multilateral institutions should brunt of this crisis, hosting the vast ma- highlight and hold these and other noncon- jority of forced migrants (page 11). PROTECT AND SECURE structive actors accountable for their com- Respond to current crises, predict future trends, prevent forced migration before it 4. Women—specifically women heads parative lack of global leadership. starts, and build greater resiliency in communities when it does happen. The United of household—and children are at the States should use its diplomatic, development, and—as a last resort—military power The consequences of inaction are real and greatest risk in forced migration crises to resolve conflicts that force migration and cause instability, making the country relevant to the United States and its allies. (page 15). and the world less safe. To date, European countries have dealt with 5. Developed countries are spending over the brunt of forced migration flows into the 10 percent of all “foreign assistance” IDEA 2 developed world and are showing serious on new arrivals in developed countries signs of strain from the UK to Greece and Ita- (page 16). LEAD AND PARTNER ly to Sweden. This report concludes that it is 6. Most forced migrants do not live in camps The United States should exercise global leadership in the international system in the U.S. domestic and national security in- but are not completely part of host com- seeking greater burden sharing from allies and others. terests to confront these issues abroad now munities either (page 16). to mitigate greater challenges for the United States and its European allies later. To ac- 7. Even if they want to, many forced mi- IDEA 3 grants will never return home (page 17). complish this, a far broader set of stakehold- DIVERSIFY STAKEHOLDERS ers will be needed. These stakeholders must 8. Forced migrants are not terrorists The private sector should be motivated and incentivized to engage responsibly include but ultimately move beyond the pro- (page 17). in ways that benefit the bottom line—addressing corporate social responsibility, tection of human rights and saving lives into Chapter I presents domestic consequenc- strategic gaps in business activities, and investment. practical solutions that recognize political es of inaction for the United States and realities and address root causes. its allies, also presenting why global lead- IDEA 4 CSIS convened a task force in the fall of 2017 ership is so important and so aligned with to study the global forced migration crisis. American values. A subsequent spotlight REGULARIZE AND NORMALIZE The task force included a politically, geo- on national security discusses how push- The most broadly effective solutions are ones that allow forced migrants to normal- graphically, and technically diverse group ing people into the shadows makes us less ize their existence and add value to host communities as quickly as possible. VII of people who engaged in spirited debate safe, how developing strong and resilient and who individually may have some linger- developing country economies is a nation- ing disagreement on the details. However, al security issue, and how addressing root the task force is united in its belief that in- causes there has national security benefits creasing levels of forced migration is one of here. Chapters II, III, and IV loosely mirror the most pressing challenges of our time, the path of a forced migrant. Chapter II one that requires a pragmatic framework presents the reasons so many people are CSIS TASK FORCE ON THE TASK GLOBAL FORCED MIGRATION CRISIS FORCE

LETTER FROM THE COCHAIRS MEMBERS We are two people who have served proudly in criminal. We owe it to those countries and com- VIII our government, one of us a Republican under munities receiving families in flight—not just in Kristen Berlacher Global Citizenship, Airbnb George W. Bush and one a Democrat under Bill Europe or North America, but also in the Mid- Clinton and Barack Obama. We first met when dle East, and Africa and Asia—and indeed to Roberta Cohen we debated each other, as surrogates, during those who are fleeing—to do better. Former Senior Adviser to the Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General on Internally Displaced Persons the 2008 presidential campaign—while each We owe it to ourselves, and those who will of us scored some points, we actually agreed come after, to step up, to take some hard de- Senator Norm Coleman on more than a few things. cisions, and to champion political courage over Former U.S. Senator, Minnesota political passivity. We agreed to cochair this Task Force because Juan Jose Daboub CSIS asked us to; because the global forced mi- As Americans, we have a particular obligation, Chairman and CEO, the Daboub Partnership, Former Managing gration crisis is among the defining issues of our and we know at least two things about this Director, World Bank, Former Minister of Finance, El Salvador lifetimes; and because we agree that tackling this country of ours. First, the idea that became the Governor Luis Fortuño crisis is bigger than any of us and certainly more most powerful country in the world was con- Former Governor, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico important—to today’s world and the future—than ceived and realized by people from all over the our political affiliations. Indeed, it is our view that world, many of whom fled danger and oppres- Ambassador William Garvelink Former U.S. Ambassador, the Democratic Republic of the Congo to politicize this crisis is to worsen it. sion to get here. And second, when America We agreed to do this because like many, we leads, the world follows. Jacqueline Glin can close our eyes and capture that image of a We cannot do this alone, but nor can we walk Former Senior Program Manager, National Democratic Institute drowned little boy on a beach—a little boy who away, for to do so would be to undermine our Lana Abu-Hijleh had to flee his home to grasp even the hope of own security, incur vast economic cost, and Country Director, Palestine, Global Communities a decent childhood—a little boy who died be- abandon the ideals that have earned our coun- fore he could garner even a taste of that most try the respect that has enabled us to lead. Kent Hill Executive Director, Religious Freedom Institute, basic right. Readers won’t agree with every recommenda- Former Assistant Administrator, USAID People around the world gasped in horror at tion in this report, or with every turn of analyt- that photo, newscasters cried on air, and activ- Idee Inyangudor ic phrase—neither do we. But the single fact Executive Partner, GDSC Inc., Former Director of Policy, Office of Minister, ists and some politicians shook their fists at the upon which every single member of this Task Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development outrage. But thousands of children, and mothers Force agrees is that the challenge we face in and fathers, are still drowning at the shoreline. tackling this crisis is not that the world lacks Sasha Kapadia Director, Markets and Partnerships, Government and Development, Global migration—whether borne of the need to expertise or ideas—it is that the world, as yet, Mastercard flee the countries people call home to escape needs political courage. war, persecution, or death or of the desire to John Kluge It is our hope that by laying out the stark facts Cofounder & Managing Partner, Alight Fund access the opportunities that all of us want—is about the scope and scale of this crisis and shaping our countries, our cultures, our econo- setting forth options, ideas, and recommen- Mary Beth Long mies, and our futures. dations, we might spur policymakers, influenc- Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, International Security Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense The myth is that the mass movement of almost ers, and politicians to act on the fact that hard 66 million men, women, and children can be ig- things are hard, but not impossible. Ky Luu nored, kicked down the road, or papered over Director Initiative for Disaster and Fragility Resilience, George Washington University, Former Director, USAID Office with either words of compassion or blasts of Secretary Tom Ridge of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance rhetoric. The tragedy—and indeed the danger— IX Former Secretary, Department of Homeland Security, Gideon Maltz is that the world is standing by, and is at best Former Governor, Pennsylvania Executive Director, Tent Foundation admiring the problem, and at worst refusing to solve it. Andrew Natsios The Honorable Gayle Smith Former Administrator, USAID We learned in government that as one of our President and CEO, the ONE Campaign, bosses said, “hard things are hard.” Solving Former Administrator, U.S. Agency for International this one is indeed difficult; failing to do so is Development (USAID) Ana Palacio A NOTE ON TERMINOLOGY Former Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Kingdom of Spain Ambassador Anne Patterson Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Former U.S. Ambassador, Egypt and Pakistan Mayor Mike Rawlings X Mayor, City of Dallas, Former CEO, Pizza Hut Matthew Reynolds Words Matter Regional Representative for the United States and the Caribbean, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Father Richard Ryscavage This report carefully and purposefully uses the (e.g., the Rohingya people of Myanmar). It has been Institute for the Study of International Migration, Georgetown University broader term “forced migrant” to describe and in- noted that “a substantial and increasing number of clude anyone who has been forced to leave home. forced migrants fall outside the existing protection Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan The term—and its usage here—is meant to appreci- regime and the legal and normative framework that Former Ambassador of Mexico to the United States ate the often appropriate and necessarily separate defines it.”4 As they navigate their own individual considerations relevant for different groups while journeys, important but insufficient international law Ambassador Ellen Sauerbrey acknowledging that not every person forced from and increasingly restrictive national laws often push Former Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Population, home fits conveniently into one group or another. people into the shadows. Bangladesh, for example, Refugees and Migration does not consider Rohingya from Myanmar to be Its usage is not an attempt to group economic and refugees. Although the Rohingya people are able Andrew Shearer voluntary migrants together with irregular and forced to request protection under the treaties given their Senior Adviser on Asia Pacific Security and Director, migrants (including, but not limited to, refugees and Alliances and American Leadership Project, CSIS, “habitual residence,” Bangladesh is not required to internally displaced persons, or IDPs), rather to talk Former National Security Adviser, Australia do so since they are not a signatory to the relevant in broader and more inclusive terms. There are many international treaty.5 While there are relevant trea- Julie Myers Wood reasons someone would be forced from home and ties with prescriptive language for confronting emer- CEO, Guidepost Solutions, Former Head of Immigration different ways that almost 70 years of international gencies, adherence to these treaties as signatories and Customs Enforcement, the Department of Homeland Security law deals—or does not adequately deal—with them. is inconsistent. Even if laws are present and appropriate, adoption of the laws and their implementation can be inconsis- The word “migrant” as part of forced migration is tent. These laws matter and should—along with their specifically used in acknowledgment of the changing implementation—be strengthened to provide better nature of displacement, one that sees those forced support to more people forced from home. However, from home often traveling alongside voluntary mi- too often policy and definition disagreements domi- grants in what has also been called “mixed” or “ir- nate debates over what to do about the crisis. Other regular” migration. The United Nations invokes spe- times their gaps and loopholes allow countries to ig- cific terminology to identify and differentiate groups nore crises that might not meet global requirements affected by migration, but it also acknowledges for action but require action nonetheless. interconnectedness between the various groups.6 The vulnerabilities and needs of forced migrants This report will not resolve these decades-long de- are often different—and more acute—than voluntary bates over definitions; nor will it fix international law migrants and the journey can be very different for or its implementation. Instead, this report asserts these diverse groups. Most voluntary migrants cross that if “some level of force and compulsion”3 led to multiple international borders while a relatively small the initial displacement, a person is a forced migrant number of forced migrants make it beyond even one whether or not he or she has an official internation- border. Persons forcibly uprooted within their own al designation. This distinction so often determines countries—internally displaced persons, or IDPs— international response and especially matters to have become increasingly recognized over the past forced migrants themselves, who are the subjects few decades because of their refugee-like needs. In- of designations but so often do not actually identify action on IDPs could have a destabilizing impact on with—or know much about—international law. the affected parts of countries, which could lead to spillover across borders, ultimately adding to forced Words matter because, while many different terms and irregular migration flows. As noted by the United XI have been used to describe and assign relevant Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), sections of international law to people dealing with “[migrants] and refugees increasingly make use of different situations, the term “forced migration” best the same routes and means of transport to get to an captures officially forcibly displaced people (refu- overseas destination,”7 though it is worth noting that gees, IDPs, and asylum seekers), those for whom IDPs make up the majority of forced migrants. there are multiple reasons why they were forced from home (e.g., South Sudan), and those for whom Annex A provides a summary of terms used to de- there is a lack of implementation of international law scribe and categorize forced migrants. UNHCR KUTUPALONG REFUGEE CAMP, BANGLADESH REFUGEE CAMP, KUTUPALONG SYRIA.

2 Her children were in school and she had recently purchased a small plot of land in an olive grove just outside of town. She was working as a lectur-

introduction er at a local university, working hard to ensure that Sameea—age 12—and Rebekah walked the equivalent of Muthana—age 11—could attend uni- Washington D.C. to versity as she had done in nearby Baltimore through Aleppo. She was dreaming about the contested territory. home they would build when an explosion next door forever changed her and her family’s lives. They didn’t know who or what caused the explosion or why; but it ultimately did not matter to them. Within a few minutes Rebekah, Sameea, and Muthana had REBEKAH left everything behind, unsure if they DID NOT WANT would ever see any of it again.

TO LEAVE There is an unprecedented number of families like Rebekah’s8, not just in and around Syria, but in Uganda, El Salvador, Ban- 3 gladesh, Sweden, the United States, and beyond. The issues surrounding forced migrants are complex. The stubborn per- sistence of forced migration9 all too often leads to denial and inaction, or at best reactions to symptoms, especially in charged political environments. This report exists for those interested in ways to turn burdens into opportunities and concrete steps for what can be done to confront the global forced migration crisis.

SYRIA. “Rejection of the global migration ltimately, the United report), current policy debates tating possible return and mini- fringements on sovereignty. An example of this is the U.S. withdrawal from the UN- process... ‘could States and its allies can continue to focus on incomplete mizing onward movement. Many led global compact on migration process in December 2017. Rejection of the global make the U.S. “pay” now to confront and sometimes inaccurate views forced migrants share these in- migration process—however imperfect the process may be, it still includes every 4 less safe with less the crisis, or “pay” more of critical and complicated issues. terests, aspiring to return home country in the world except the United States—“could make the U.S. less safe with global influence Ulater. The world has already be- Particularly but not uniquely in or unable to handle costly and less global influence and thus even less control over forced and irregular migra- gun to witness the costs associ- the United States, global efforts risky expedition to a third coun- tion to its borders.”11 To better offer its expert advice on these matters, the Trump and thus even ated with rising forced migration: to address the crisis (e.g., the UN try. To achieve this goal, more administration should fill the assistant secretary of state position in the Bureau of less control over record displacement, conflict en- global compacts on refugees and and better support—often but Population, Refugees, and Migration as soon as possible, ideally with someone experienced in working with the United Nations and other multilateral entities. State forced and irregu- gulfing whole regions, rising food migrants) are periodically met not only in the form of foreign lar migration to introduction insecurity, environmental disas- with healthy skepticism, ques- assistance—must be provided Department leadership and senior policy expertise on this issue is essential and ter, and other destabilizing trends tions about their effects on sov- to host communities and transit necessary for continued U.S. participation in the UN-led global compact process its borders.’” dominating headlines around the ereignty, and a view that costs of countries to improve stability and on refugees (see Annex C). world. But in the long term, these the crisis are being shouldered their ability to absorb and host crises could spiral into broader se- disproportionately. While the more people. Though not on its curity and economic threats that broader arguments for global- own, foreign assistance and de- will undermine U.S. objectives at ly oriented solutions (some dis- velopment resources—especially home and abroad. Several of our cussed in this report) are often those that focus on conflict pre- anytime soon. In the summer EU relations.15 Additionally, Hun- security and economic partners viewed in opposition to domestic vention, better governance, and of 2017, the top EU court ruled gary has proposed and enacted could face collapse as more peo- priorities, this report argues that economic growth—can help pre- STRAIN that Austria could deport those restrictive laws16 and Bulgaria has ple are forced from home. The global partnership is not mutual- vent the collapse of countries that ON OUR asylum seekers who did not use earned a reputation as one of Eu- issues surrounding forced migra- ly exclusive to domestic security would force more people from Austria as their first point of entry rope’s most hostile points of en- tion are only getting more compli- and economic well-being. home. These resources can also ALLIES into the European Union back to try for forced migrants.17 cated and dangerous, and ignor- help create job opportunities that first point of entry. This rul- In addition to confronting the ver the last few years, ing those consequences is not a and new markets for goods and ing is in line with the 2003 Dub- 10 root causes of the forced mi- Despite being high on European Sweden was a top sustainable solution. services. lin Regulation that distributes gration crisis (see Chapter II), and global policy priority lists,12 destination for tens of responsibility for reviewing asy- While many experts and organi- the United States and its allies Some proposed solutions for the growing global urgency is thousands of forced lum applications, and the asylum zations have researched some should take steps to encourage complicated forced migration largely seen as distant in a U.S. Omigrants, especially unaccom- seekers themselves, across the variation of forced migration forced migrants to stay close to issues are rejected or ignored domestic policy context, or con- panied minors. In the summer of European Union.13 The Dublin (many of which are cited in this their original homes, thus facili- because they are considered in- flicting with the notions of Amer- 2015, 163,000 people—mainly Regulation had been suspended ican sovereignty (see Chapter I). from Syria and Iraq—arrived at in 2015 because of the poten- The United States’ European al- Sweden’s border, many having HUMANITARIANHUMANITARIAN AID TO HOST AID TO HOST tial for the number of forced mi- lies have dealt with the brunt of walked from other EU countries grants from Syria to overwhelm AND ORIGIN COUNTRIESAND ORIGIN COUNTRIES forced migration flows into the that had rejected their claims of other EU countries such as Cro- developed world and are show- asylum. As a result, Sweden low- 3.5 atia. After suspending the Dublin ing serious signs of strain. While ered its previously more generous Regulation, Austria saw about 3.0 not the only cause of increased asylum quota, reverting to lower 90,000 (approximately 1 percent nationalism, events such as EU minimums. It also instituted a 2.5 of its population) applications for Brexit and the rise of parties on mandatory identification check asylum between 2015 and 2016. 2.0 the extreme ends of the political on its southern border with Den- Since the end of 2016, Austria has spectrum can be tied to the arriv- mark for the first time since the 1.5

BILLIONS USD passed new and tougher asylum al of greater numbers of forced 1950s, even closing the border 5 laws, including its 2017 deporta- 1.0 migrants at Europe’s door over completely for a period of time— tion law,14 and is now coordinating the past decade. an announcement that famously 0.5 with other countries around the brought the Swedish prime minis- Balkans and southeast Europe to 0 Our European allies are less will- ter to tears on live television.18,19,20 graphic source 2007 20082009 20102011201220132014 2015 2016 ing to host more forced migrants make tougher border restrictions “Humanitarian Aid, Total,” OECD, than they were 10 years ago; or push people into Germany and Some will criticize Europe, saying 10 https://stats.oecd.org/qwids/ Top Host Countries Top Origin Countries and that is not going to change Sweden, complicating broader that with these greater restrictions, implicit or explicit attempts to “outsource” dealing with forced cific convention or treaty covering and access gaps—UNHCR alone “We are facing an un- migration to Turkey and countries across central and north Africa are forced migration, international hu- projects a $4.23 billion gap (53 counterproductive. Critics will point to increased tensions in urban man rights laws obligate states— percent of the funds it needs) as paralleled emergency, 6 areas21 and troubling levels of slavery and human trafficking, espe- as primary responsible parties—to of late 201733—will require greater and it is time to expand cially in origin and transit countries,22 though recent history shows ensure civil, political, economic, foreign assistance from countries the roster of on-call that these criticisms might fall on deaf ears. With some exceptions, social, and cultural rights for all in- such as the United States. In ad- most European countries’ policies to date have focused on sending dividuals in the territory and under dition to adequate funding, there responders to include people away.23 Whether a border fence in Hungary or an agreement their jurisdiction.26,27,28 Ultimately, needs to be greater flexibility on the corporate world, between a European and African country keeps people away,24 Eu- it is more important to reflect on the part of groups responsible for international financial introduction rope is reducing its welcome even as many more forced and irregu- what countries actually do rather responding to these crises. UN- and development insti- lar migrants are going to be looking to Europe. than what they say or the treaties HCR, for example, receives flex- to which they may or may not be ible or “unearmarked” funding tutions, philanthropists, his report concludes that it is in the U.S. domestic and na- signatories. from the United States, allowing and more. There are tional security interests to confront these issues abroad now it to respond to burgeoning and to mitigate greater challenges for the United States and our The convention has been updat- many capable actors unique crises faster than other or- European allies later. The United States has been the global ed once since 1951 (in 1967); as a outside the traditional ganizations such as IOM. But UN- Tleader on these issues for decades, should remain a global leader in result, people forced from their humanitarian sphere HCR and IOM alone cannot deal confronting forced migration, and, in doing so, should support and homes increasingly do not quali- with all the challenges that forced who are ready and eager strengthen its allies and productive international efforts and institu- fy for assistance under the global tions. To accomplish this, it is clear that a far broader set of arguments statutes set up decades ago to migration brings. These issues will to engage in addressing will be needed. These arguments must recognize the importance of protect them.29 Some major desti- also require assistance from new the challenge of global protecting human rights and saving lives, but ultimately move into nation and transit countries for ir- donors such as the World Bank forced displacement. developing practical solutions that recognize political realities. regular and forced migrants—such and development finance institu- as India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, tions. There are significant, often It will be vital to include Iraq, Jordan, Libya, and the Unit- unique, roles for private enterprise them in bringing about In the wake of World War II, vari- ed States (who is only party to the and capital and for public and pri- the solutions that are A ous instruments, bodies, and le- 1967 protocol)—are not even sig- vate philanthropy; however, the within reach.” gal classifications were created natories of the 1951 convention.30 issues are often so challenging LAGGING to care for people affected by di- Today’s forced migrants often that many of these private actors saster in different ways, but also have difficulty accessing the inter- will require an expanded vision Filippo Grandi, United Nations SYSTEM to hold individual countries ac- national assistance provided for of public-private partnerships and High Commissioner for Refugees countable for maintaining com- refugees or asylum seekers, and simplified entry points to ensure mitments. The 1951 Refugee Con- all too often fall into the shadows sustainable engagement (see Current international frame- vention guarantees certain rights and subsequent generational cy- Spotlight on the Private Sector). works and agreements (e.g., based on status and criteria, but cles of poverty. This is particularly Unless we address these issues 1951 refugee convention) for the treaty has some shortcomings. true for IDPs who may want to es- now we will be dealing with much supporting the various types of Specifically, not all countries are cape across international boundar- greater economic, national securi- forced migrants (e.g., refugees, parties to or have sufficient politi- ies but are barred from doing so.31 ty, and humanitarian consequenc- IDPs, and asylum seekers) are cal will to abide by the convention, 32 es over the next 30 years. The executed by an array of organiza- IDPs are not included, the conven- UNHCR and IOM —the two pri- tion itself does not cover all forced mary organizations tasked with costs of inaction are rising quick- tions (e.g., UNHCR and Interna- migrants, and enforcement is in- managing the impacts of these ly. Taking productive action will tional Organization for Migration, consistent at best. Consequently, trends—notably perform well giv- require recognizing complicated or IOM) responsible for different 7 there are shortfalls and gaps in en the complicated international realities, making hard choices, groups of people in every region services that have widened as the legal framework and their limited and directly confronting the roots 25 of the world. It is an expansive root causes of forced migration resources and operational capa- and results of forced migration web of people and groups dedi- have worsened and diversified, bilities; however, these groups rely (see Chapter II). The good news is cated to this challenge, but that the regions and numbers affect- on governments for funding and that the actions we take today can network is strained by the wors- ed have grown, and the crisis has access, neither of which is guar- help shape the forced migration ening crisis. proliferated. While there is no spe- anteed. Addressing their funding scenario we will face tomorrow. other competing priorities for foreign assistance and WHERE WE’RE HEADED development budgets, thus further prioritizing re- FAMOUS FORCED sponses to symptoms of forced migration as opposed MIGRANTS to root causes overseas. A few bad actors posing as refugees or even coming from refugee communities theoretical physicist The World commit crimes in the United States and Europe, lead- Albert Einstein ing to increasing levels of antirefugee and antimi- grant sentiment and the strengthening of isolationist THE FACE former secretary of state 8 in 2030 and nationalist political movements. The temptation Madeleine Albright for xenophobic reactions to events grows. China and OF FORCED HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO 1 Russia continue to contribute little to the solutions, founder of google Confront the crisis, address root causes, strengthen and periodically make the crisis worse through cynical MIGRATION Sergey Brin the rule-based international order, and reduce the and purposeful actions, as in the case of Syria. One or flow of forced migration over the medium term. Led two countries hosting millions of forced migrants, like- author by the United States and its allies, a coalition of coun- ly in the Middle East, collapse under the strain and a Forced migrants are far too often as- prove counterproduc- Elie Wiesel tries together with the private sector and other stake- lack of external support, creating further geostrategic sumed to be floating hopelessly across tive if it caused one to introduction holders take productive actions that confront the root former secretary of state problems for the United States and its allies. the Mediterranean Sea or as people ar- consequently be passed causes of forced migration—especially, but not only, Henry Kissinger riving destitute at a dusty refugee camp. conflict—while addressing the short- and long-term HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO 3 over for international as- needs of those forced from home for protracted pe- Stand by while chaos ensues. The United States and Though the modern face of forced migra- sistance. founder of intel riods of time. We find productive ways of integrating its allies focus only on the symptoms of forced migration includes such examples, the reality Andrew Grove Though they may have those already displaced with host communities or fa- tion and fail to create collective action to manage the is much more diverse. Given increased former chairman of cilitate safe and voluntary return home. Societies that crisis. U.S. resettlement numbers are cut, U.S. foreign global mobility, many forced migrants all looked different and the joint chiefs of taff successfully integrate forced migrants benefit from assistance budgets are cut or redirected, and conflicts who cross international boundaries to- had different journeys General John Shalikashvili hard-working, grateful participants in their new societ- worldwide grow in number and duration. The United day are the wealthiest, healthiest, and to safety and ultimate ies and economies, decreasing the prevalence of xe- States is unable or unwilling to lead any sort of glob- prosperity, forced mi- philosopher al response. Global forced migration rates rapidly ac- best educated. nophobia. The United States and its allies understand grants throughout his- Sigmund Freud celerate, resulting in 320 million people forced from that forced migration is a destabilizing global threat emember Rebekah and her fam- and potentially an opportunity that requires collective home by conflict in 2030.36 A further 150 million people tory have had positive action to manage. China and Russia continue to con- are forced from home by environmental and climate- ily in Syria? Like a vast number impacts on almost every tribute little to the solutions, but they pay a global price related disasters by 2050.37 At the same time, OECD of forced migrants, she only had part of industry and society. But beyond for this lack of leadership and action. Forced migration donors accelerate the trend of reallocating overseas a few minutes to pack before notable celebrities, everyday people af- levels plateau and eventually decrease by 2030 as the development resources domestically, resulting in as Rleaving behind everything she knew. As fected by forced migration crises move United States and a broad coalition of countries take much as 30 percent allocated to responding to hosting she did, you would probably wear your on to contribute and thrive in society, people. Previous commitments to international agree- actions to address the economic, national security, nicest clothes and hold on tight to your enhancing the economic, social, and cul- and humanitarian consequences of the global crisis. ments are abandoned or ignored. The issues of forced smartphone that enables you and mil- U.S. global leadership is enhanced by the successful migration lead to an almost complete closing of Eu- tural vitality of the United States. management of the forced migration crisis giving it the rope’s doors and an even greater disinterest from the lions of fellow forced migrants to reach For Rebekah and the millions of others ability to influence and lead on other issues. United States. The forced migration crisis strains the family and friends in the United States as European Union to a breaking point, leading as many easily as those in Syria. Upon reaching like her, the “choice” to leave home is HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO 2 as three countries (e.g., Hungary, Austria, and Poland) safety in Gaziantep, Turkey, you would not a choice at all. Whether facing vio- Muddle through, treat forced migration as a human- to follow a “Brexit path” rather than adhere to collec- then try to normalize your family’s exis- lence, persecution, climate-related di- itarian crisis only, react to the issue du jour, and tive rules from Brussels on accepting more people. sasters, food insecurity, or any number put the rule-based international order under great tence as quickly as possible, secure a Root causes of forced migration become further en- of other destabilizing events, almost 66 strain. The United States and its allies view forced trenched and push more and more people away from roof over your head, and get your chil- million people worldwide have been migration primarily through homeland security and home, while new laws in countries that have historically dren into school. Over time you would humanitarian lenses. The focus is on humanitarian provided refuge now turn people away. This creates a try to find ways to earn money to pay forced to abandon homes, friends, and aid to officially registered forcibly displaced people, self-fulling prophecy that keeps forced migrants in situ- for food, eventually able to take pride in jobs. On a planet of over 7 billion peo- with comparatively little attention or funding given to ations of instability for longer and pushes them into the the money you have made through your ple, 66 million may not seem like a lot, address root causes of forced migration or to build shadows, thus increasing the risk of their radicalization informal hair salon in your new commu- but given that an overwhelming majority resiliency in host communities. These efforts have and decreasing the likelihood that they become mem- of them come from or find themselves in little impact on the conflict-based, environmental, or nity. You would proudly wear clean and bers of society in new communities or economically countries already dealing with underde- other root causes. Global forced migration rates con- self-sufficient. The number of fragile and failing states colorful clothes when discussing your tinue trends from 2000 to 2015, resulting in as many increases, stretching already scarce foreign assistance journey with visiting researchers. And velopment and insecurity, the challeng- 9 as 180 million people forced from home by conflict in and development resources and eventually reallo- even though you do not look like the es are significant and are not going to be 34 2030. A further 150 million people are forced from cating even more funds to provide increased domes- stereotyped version of a forced migrant, met without concerted efforts to do so. home by environment-related disasters by 2050.35 At tic security. As many as five or six countries become dirty and thin with ripped clothing, you the same time, the Organization for Economic Coop- destabilized or collapse altogether. A number of U.S. eration and Development (OECD) countries reallocate allies (e.g., Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, and Nigeria) that are every bit of one with hauntingly dark greater amounts of foreign assistance funding to deal are hosting large numbers of forced migrants descend memories and an unclear future ahead with arrivals domestically equivalent to 20 percent of into chaos. Any chance for partnership and benefit to of you. Perversely, not resembling this all foreign assistance instead of the over 10 percent the United States rapidly disappears into a downward stereotype of a forced migrant could in 2018. This focus inward comes at the expense of spiral of instability. FACT 1 FACT 2 HOSTING 4.5% CURRENT FORCED PROTRACTED SHARE OF MIGRATION LEVELS DISPLACEMENT IS 4.0% EIGHT ARE UNPRECEDENTED. THE NEW NORMAL. GLOBAL REFUGEE 3.5% 10 FACTS By the end of 2016, almost 66 million people Once forced from home, many hope to worldwide had been forcibly displaced from stay close by in case an opportunity to POP. (2016) 40 YOU NEED their homes by conflict and violence, including return presents itself or because they 3.0% 22.5 million refugees—the highest number since are not capable of traveling any further. TO KNOW World War II—40.3 million people displaced with- But even for those displaced internally in their own countries (IDPs), and nearly 3 million within their own country, the evidence 2.5%

introduction ABOUT people seeking asylum in another country. With points to protracted displacement as over 7 billion people on the planet, confronting a new normal. Though many desire to 2.0% FORCED the challenges of almost 66 million forced mi- go home, return to chronically unstable grants will be difficult but should be manage- places could result in greater numbers

MIGRATION able. What makes this a crisis is its scale, com- of protracted displacement scenarios, 1.5% plexity, speed, length, and geographic reach, in an increasing number of which involve addition to the fact that those affected are con- migration to one or multiple destinations Throughout history, movement centrated (and almost hidden from developed outside one’s original home country.44 1.0% has allowed people to improve countries) in developing regions, many of which their lives in a new place. Volun- lack the resources to respond to their own chal- Of 60 countries monitored by the Internal 0.5% tary migration has also been the lenges, much less an influx of thousands or mil- Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) cause of intense political debate lions of forced migrants. in 2014, 53 showed evidence that “peo- for generations that continue to ple were living in internal displacement 45 a a y n n n n ia an ad In many ways, the global community is still for more than 10 years.” Another study sh ce es ey an an da

this day. Voluntary migration is on in ny an da Ir da ania op me st rd rk at ro an an eden Ch Ch ki hi rm Ke nz bano Su Su St la de Jo Fr Tu Ye

me Ug Et dealing with the effects of displacement and showed that by the end of 2014, at least Sw perceived to have moved to new Pa Le Ta Ge ng ed uth Ca it Ba refugees following World War II, when massive 50 percent of IDPs globally had been So and unprecedented levels on its Un own when, in reality, it has stayed numbers of German and Polish nationals were displaced for more than three years in Congo, Dem. Rep consistent (3 percent) relative to forced from Silesia, East Prussia, Czechoslo- countries monitored for conflict-induced the global population for over vakia, Hungary, Romania, and other places.41 displacement.46 FACT 3 70 years.38 Forced migration— Jewish survivors who became forced migrants Unsurprisingly, the further away from DEVELOPING COUNTRIES encompassing diverse groups looked for shelter in an increasingly nonwel- 42 home a forced migrant goes, the more ARE BEARING THE BRUNT from every region on earth—has coming Europe and oppressive Soviet Union. real protracted displacement becomes. grown to its own unprecedent- None of these issues were solved in one year OF THIS CRISIS, HOSTING Though there is some discrepancy in aged levels in relative and abso- or through one overarching policy mechanism. THE VAST MAJORITY OF gregated estimates, all point to troubling lute terms from approximately 20 Addressing such a massive disruption required levels of protracted displacement. The FORCED MIGRANTS. million (0.3 percent of the global unprecedented levels of international coopera- average duration of displacement for population) in 2000 to almost 66 tion, leadership, and innovative thinking. Many Eighty-four percent of refugees—and an alarm- current refugees (excluding Afghans), million (1 percent) in 2016.39 The societies—including but not limited to many in ing 99 percent of IDPs, many of whom have for example, is estimated at 10.3 years following key facts demonstrate the United States—took responsibility for and been forced from home but do not have the with a median duration of 4 years by the the scale and complexity of the benefited from postwar resettlement and im- resources to travel—remain in developing re- World Bank. Including Afghan refugees, 49,50 global forced migration crisis. migration, though the benefits were not always gions. The world’s poorest countries dis- quickly apparent. the average jumps to 21.2 years with a proportionately bear the brunt of the forced mi- median duration of 19 years.47 UNHCR gration crisis, especially given their proximity to Interest in today’s global forced migration cri- estimates the average duration of dis- IDP crises that can spill over into neighboring 11 sis from traditional donors has plateaued at the placement as 26 years at the end of countries and beyond, and lengthy processes same time that root causes such as conflict have 2015, whereas this figure was 9 years for those lucky enough to even be considered decentralized and wars with nontraditional and in 1993 and 17 years in 2013.48 In other for resettlement somewhere else. This trend of nonstate actors have enabled cyclical degrada- words, even in the most conservative of developing countries hosting more forced mi- tion of fragile contexts around the world, in turn estimates, half of the world’s refugees straining confidence in the Pax Americana.43 have spent 4 or more years displaced. graphic source UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2016.52 12 introduction

FORCED MIGRATION Forced migration IS A GLOBAL routes originate, journey through, and end in every PHENOMENON region of the world. 13 Notable IDP Scenarios

graphics sources can be found on page 110 total refugees hosted HIGH INCOME grants continues to grow, and COUNTRIES vs. 3.0 FACT 4 have independence. Many women face is especially prevalent in Syria, discrimination, a lack of training, and Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, DEVELOPING WOMEN—SPECIFICALLY without access to viable employment 14 which collectively host over 11 COUNTRIES WOMEN HEADS OF HOUSE- (both at home and outside the home). million Syrian forced migrants. HOLD—AND CHILDREN ARE Without targeted and long-term assis- By comparison, Canada and the 2.5 AT THE GREATEST RISK IN tance, women heads of household often United States host fewer than struggle to integrate into new commu- 100,000 Syrian refugees.51 52 FORCED MIGRATION CRISES. nities—or even reintegrate in original homes after return—which can lead to At the same time, other countries (e.g., In countries with wars that displace

introduction multigenerational repercussions for Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia) cause 2.0 large numbers of people, women their children and for society as a whole. or exacerbate the global crisis via di- and girls very often become heads of It is important to note that many women rect and indirect hostility toward forced household and the sole caretakers of in refugee or IDP camps and urban set- migrants and via strict policies of non- their families, or they travel without tings have shown themselves extraordi- interference (unless invited in) even in family members. Today, almost half of narily resourceful and entrepreneurial. the gravest of humanitarian situations.53 1.5 the 244 million annual migrants and Reinforcing their skills, introducing new Despite its deep involvement in the half of all refugees worldwide are fe- ones, and providing them with work and 61,62 Syrian conflict, Russia has only contrib- male. Some are driven away from le- community-involvement opportunities uted roughly 1 percent of its calculated gal avenues for migration given a lack can better prepare them and their fam- humanitarian “share of the funding bur- of protection, creating vulnerability that ilies for a more stable future following den,” according to one analysis.54 Chi- 1.0 increases as human traffickers, criminal return, integration, or resettlement. na contributes some foreign assistance gangs, and even soldiers increasingly funds but does not resettle forced mi- prey on them.63 Despite being dispro- Over half the world’s refugees are chil- grants in a meaningful way—ostensibly portionately negatively affected by con- dren.66 Many are unaccompanied after for “cultural reasons”—with only nine flict, women are also rarely included in their parents were killed or separated

Syrian refugees resettled in China in 0.5 peace processes, even though when from them. In 2015, for example, Swe- 2015. In its own words, China does not women are included, research has den experienced over 35,000 unac- feel obligated to “clean up the mess [led shown that peace agreements have a companied minors arriving at its bor- 55,56 by the United States]” higher chance of lasting longer.64,65 der, many of whom had walked across Europe from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Ultimately, it is going to be the countries Female forced migrants deal with even Syria.67 Thousands of unaccompanied with the capacity to accept greater num- a a y n h n n n ia greater challenges compared to men, an ad ce es an ey an minors from Central America arrived at da on in ny es an Ir da da ania op me st rd rk at ro an eden an Ch Ch

bers of forced migrants and the ones ki hi rm Ke nz bano Su Su St lad Jo Fr Tu Ye often confronted with sexual assault and the southern U.S. border with Mexico me Ug Et Sw Pa Le Ta Ge ng ed uth currently handling internal displacement Ca 68 it

Ba exploitation, rape, child marriage, and all

So in 2014. For children born into forced issues effectively that are going to de- Un types of violence not only as a cause of Congo, Dem. Rep migration contexts, many miss out on termine the future of this crisis. One their displacement but also during their education and nutrition—stunting their way for the United States and other de- journey, while simultaneously and inde- mental and physical growth—and spend veloped countries to lead would be to Most headlines and coverage of the global forced mi- pendently caring for children. Cultural their developmental years in limbo. The recognize that they are not bearing the gration crisis in the developed world focuses on the and economic participation can be chal- longer children stay out of school and brunt of the crisis, and support countries minority of people who actually try and travel to Eu- lenging for women even after reaching without access to a traditional child- that are. Turkey, for example, was host- rope or the United States—such as the 2,000 peo- relative safety; while many thrive in their hood, the harder it is for them to even- ing 3.5 million total refugees (3.2 million ple who drowned in 2017 in the Mediterranean Sea, new areas, others deal with lingering ef- tually (or ever) catch up and ultimately from Syria) as of October 2017,57 where- or the tens of thousands of refugees resettled in the fects of the root cause of their forced become productive members of society. as the United States averages around 15 United States. However, developing countries host migration while providing childcare in Given the protracted nature of today’s 70,000 annual admissions, a number overwhelming majorities of forced migrants, totaling places with new cultures and languag- forced migration (see Fact 2), these chil- that declined significantly in 2017.58 at least 58 million people globally.59 In 2016 alone, 31 es. Being the head of household and dren become a lost generation of peo- million people were settled elsewhere within their own sole caretaker makes integration into ple struggling to find productive outlets countries, mainly due to natural disaster.60 the formal economy more difficult. Cul- for themselves and their families. graphic source tivating skills and capabilities is essen- UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2014.52 tial to being able to support a family and FACT 5 FACT 7 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE SPENDING OVER EVEN IF THEY WANT TO, MANY FORCED MIGRANTS 16 10 PERCENT OF ALL “FOREIGN ASSISTANCE” WILL NEVER RETURN HOME. ON NEW ARRIVALS IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. If one talks to a forced migrant—like Rebekah from Syria—soon after displacement, her goal will almost always be to return home as soon as possible. As time wears on, however, Increased numbers of forced migrants the realities of protracted displacement make return more complicated: children learn new globally have not resulted in enough in- customs and languages in local schools, jobs become available, and dreams of returning creased funding to confront the crisis; home meet the practicalities of having started new lives elsewhere. Before those long-

introduction and a growing portion of the funding term considerations, however, safety and security at home are always a prerequisite for re- that does exist is being diverted to deal FACT 6 turn. For some, dreams of returning home were dashed even before they left; who would with new arrivals in developed coun- want to return to a place marred in one’s memory as a place of suffering and torture? For tries. Donor countries spent $15.4 billion MOST FORCED MIGRANTS DO still others, lingering political and security realities make returning impossible. Of 22.5 mil- in 2016 on hosting forced migrants do- NOT LIVE IN CAMPS BUT ARE lion refugees, for example, only 552,200 officially returned to their countries of origin, with mestically; this means over 10 percent NOT COMPLETELY PART OF a majority (384,000) returning to Afghanistan.75 Today, throughout the world, protracted of all official foreign assistance originally HOST COMMUNITIES EITHER. displacement, integration, and resettlement—not just talk of return—are the new normal. intended to be spent abroad was spent at home.69 Driven primarily by European Most forced migrants live in urban or suburban countries after seeing increased num- areas, with family and friends, or in slum-like in- bers of forced migrants arriving at their formal settlements, often indistinguishable from borders, the OECD’s Development As- voluntary migrants. Estimates place approxi- FACT 8 The evidence does not suggest causal links sistance Committee (which determines mately 80 percent of all internally displaced liv- between increased levels of forced migration what is considered official development ing in urban settings, with 60 percent of refu- FORCED MIGRANTS and increased terrorist activity. The perception assistance, or ODA, among the world’s gees living in towns or cities (equating to over 13 71 ARE NOT TERRORISTS. that terrorists take advantage of forced migra- richest 30 donors) loosened its rules on million people). Specifically in the Middle East- tion flows—especially official, legal, and regular what could be counted as ODA, lead- North Africa (MENA) region, approximately 90 A common scenario for forced migrants inflows—or that forced migrants as people are ing some countries to count domestic percent of the displaced live in urban settings.72 volves fleeing terrorists in search of safety rath- naturally at any great risk of radicalization are spending as ODA. Though these rules While this allows many to work outside the for- er than joining their ranks. Some have sought not supported by evidence. For example, the were clarified somewhat in November mal economy (often at sub-standard levels of to connect religious extremism and terrorist at- vast majority of those committing acts of terror 2017,70 they still open the door for limited income, health, and safety while exposed to la- tacks to the global forced migration crisis. While in Europe are native born or legal residents, ODA resources to be used domestical- bor violations and predatory employers), it also we need to separate the vast majority of forced not newly arrived forced migrants and no ref- ly, which in effect lessens the resources creates strains on host communities.73 There is migrants from extremists and terrorists, there is ugee resettled in the United States in the last allocated to address forced migration in also some evidence that urban-dwelling forced some evidence that restrictive policies and the 30 years has committed a deadly act of terror.79 developing countries. As a result, many migrants are largely overlooked—increasing separation of forced migrants into camps and What puts forced migrants at greater risk is their OECD countries and others are increas- the risk of harassment, discrimination, arrest, other concentrated places can create environ- continued concentration near conflict zones ingly counting domestic program spend- detention, and deportation—while those living 76 ments conducive to radicalization. A recent and policies that “build fences, engage in pushing on refugees toward ODA. in sanctioned or formal camps receive a dispro- study asserted that radicalization is a threat in portionate amount of support and attention.74 back operations, criminalize irregular migration crisis situations, and forced migrants in camp sit- and abandon international legal commitments.” Residing in urban areas does not necessari- uations are susceptible because, among other These policies ultimately push vulnerable peo- ly mean forced migrants can freely integrate things, they “have fewer opportunities for per- ple into the shadows where they could fall prey into a host community. On the contrary, forced sonal advancement.”77 Another study showed to nefarious groups such as human traffickers that factors such as “overcrowding, hunger, and terrorists. ISIS and other extremist groups migrants (especially those outside their home 17 countries) often suffer from state-imposed re- and poverty” among forced migrants put them have used anti-forced migrant sentiment for strictions on their mobility, their ability to work at greater risk, but that the determinate factors recruitment and propaganda purposes.80 Con- or exercise their professions, and their ability to in radicalization were more likely those largely sequently, policies that protect forced migrants open bank accounts or obtain mobile phones. out of their own control: “actions of the receiv- and other vulnerable people provide produc- The challenges of global forced migration are ing country and its citizens, the refugees’ loss tive outlets for them, and keeping them out of linked closely with—and further exacerbate—the of personal opportunities in prolonged crises, the shadows should be core elements of na- well-documented challenges of urbanization. and a lack of integrated programs.”78 tional security strategies. Forced migrants find themselves productive outlets to the conflicts THE overwhelmingly and increasing- so often at the root of forced mi- ly in already underdeveloped gration. Growth and economic 18 FUTURE places. Their presence strains al- development must be coupled ready struggling economies and with strengthening political and shaky governance systems from governance institutions because The magnitude of the global Uganda to Bangladesh to Leba- most drivers of forced migration forced migration crisis is stag- non and beyond. Communities have their roots in conflicts creat- .81 Conflicts gering and growing that can hardly feed and provide ed by political crises. that produce forced migrants— security for themselves are— introduction for example, civil war in South and will continue to be—hosting The world has changed im- Sudan and ethnic cleansing in forced migrants, giving unprece- mensely in the past several de- Myanmar—are growing in num- dented and exceptional scale to cades and the reasons for—and ber while previous conflicts—for the demographic shock. consequences of—global forced example, Syria—move from short- migration crisis are vastly differ- term crisis to protracted conflict. orced migrants are often ent than the ones that sparked This is creating cyclical instability at their most vulnerable the 1951 convention in the wake and engenders a domino effect immediately after dis- of World War II. As the nature of of increasing fragility in some of placement and rely on conflict moves from armies fight- of refugees live in the most vulnerable yet fastest Fthe goodwill of neighbors and ing armies to protracted asym- as growing countries in the world. urban settings the international community for metrical warfare between a com- 60% opposed to camps. food, water, and shelter. Because plicated web of armed actors; as espite disproportionate keeping people alive and safe the changes in our climate result media portrayals to the is—and should always be—a top in harsher living conditions, food contrary, most forced priority, much of the international insecurity, and instability; as vi- migrants do not come community’s efforts and resourc- olence and political and cultural Dto the United States or Europe. 40 es respond to the urgent human- extremes challenge the well-be- percent more people have been millions of engaged young minds bor markets, a number that could itarian nature of forced migra- ing of countless countries; and displaced in one state in Nigeria is stifled when they are forced to be larger than the current U.S. tion. While responding to global as a globalized world opens up than the total number of people to everyone with a smartphone, prioritize survival over innovation population by 2050. Without op- forced migration is a primarily who arrived via the Mediterra- humanitarian and a security chal- the international community’s 82 and productive work. portunity and jobs, not only will nean in Europe in 2015. Almost approach to solutions must young people voluntarily migrate, lenge, confronting it is largely a 94 percent of all forced migrants also change. Without signifi- Forced migration is an already but when coupled with underlying political, governance, national in Africa stay in Africa. These security, and economic develop- cant course correction soon, the complex phenomenon without resource and political issues, the current realities have multigen- ment challenge. forced migration issues confront- easy solutions, one that will be continent could be headed to- erational consequences where- ed now will seem simple decades made increasingly complicated ward more frequent war, inequal- by shortcomings in services and In thinking about the future, it is from now. opportunities could cripple future and expensive by projected de- ity, oppression, and environmen- worth acknowledging the “par- opportunities for forced migrants mographic and economic trends. tal disaster. By no means is this a adox of prosperity”: the reality and host community members For example, countries in Africa darkly realistic future only for Afri- that, in the short term, economic alike. Children and young peo- are expected to have over 800 can countries; variations of many development increases volun- ple lose access to quality edu- million young people by 2050.83 of these underlying stresses exist tary migration flows.84 Howev- cation and opportunities to be Currently, over half of the 420 across the Middle East, Central, er, economic development also 19 productive members of society. million young people there are South and Southeast Asia, and generally creates disincentives The creativity and productivity of unemployed or inactive in the la- Central and South America. to conflict and greater resiliency to shocks that might otherwise result in forced migration. Eco- graphic source nomic growth—especially inclu- UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2014,” sive economic growth—creates 2014, http://www.unhcr.org/556725e69.html#_ga=1.134920 jobs and, importantly, provides 948.447548864.1453716833. 18.00%

16.00% BY THE protracted refugee refugees situations by duration (2015) hosted as NUMBERS a share of 12.0% 24 6 8 10 12 14 14.00%

Funding to combat in-donor national pop. 10.0% 10−19 global forced migration refugee (2016) is not going where and 20 costs as a 8.0% 20−29 how it is needed the most. portion of 6.0% 12.00% 30+ total oda 4.0% 2.0% Since the 1990s, the average years of displacement for all groups has risen from less than 10 years to over 25. 10.00% introduction ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16

global oda $160 8.00% of IDPs live in $140 spending by urban settings as category $120 80% opposed to rural. $100 6.00% $80

$60 of displaced Middle Eastern and North African persons $40 4.00% 90% live in towns and cities as $20 opposed to rural settings.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Other net ODA Humanitarian Aid In-donor refugee costs u.s. refugee intake by 2.00% thousands250 of people 200 spending on forced migration compared to global health 150 a a y n h n n n p ia an ad es ce ey an an da on in ny es an da Ir op me st rd rk at ro an uda eden 100 an Ch Ch ki hi rm Ke bano Su S St lad Jo Fr Tu Ye

$40 me Ug Et Sw Pa Le Tanzania Ge ng ed uth Ca

50 it Ba So

$35 Un Congo, Dem. Re $30 ‘75 ‘80 ‘85 ‘90 ‘95 ‘00 ‘05 ‘10 ‘15

$25

$20 projected 300 $15 global 200 $10 displacement scenarios by $5 millions of 100 21 people 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ODA to Forced Migration Development Assistance for Health 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Based on the Average Percentage Change from 2000–2016 graphics sources can be found Based on the Portion of Population Displaced on page 110 “It is in our national interest to address this now. Time will only complicate matters and 22 make solutions more costly.”

Governor Luis Fortuño, Former Governor of Puerto Rico chapter i It is easy for many of us to view forced migration as something that only affects people far away. In reality, forced migration is a global crisis that affects the interests of the United States, its allies, and partner A nations directly and indirectly every day. Given finite resources and do- GLOBAL mestic political realities, the choice between fixing problems at home CRISIS and addressing challenges abroad seems simple. But it is in the primary interest of the United States and its allies to confront the challenges of forced migration abroad now, before they become much bigger challenges and threats to the United States.

WITH 23

This crisis is also straining—and has the potential to break—our allies, creating DOMESTIC instability that inherently damages U.S. interests. Addressing issues at the root of forced migration now is cheaper than solving them when they are scattered across the world, manifested in wars, disaster, food insecurity, and famine. Given CONSEQUENCES modern mobility and globalization, these issues will cross all borders eventually. REACHING A BREAKING POINT

non are not considered “refugees” by the government; the United States should contin- Lebanon they are officially “displaced,” which means there are ue to lead other countries in re- no officially sanctioned camps and forced migrants are settlement in real, not per capita, Turkey harder to track and assist. Lebanon has long held that 24 on the Brink terms. At the same time, world- it is “not a state for refugees” or settlement, illustrat- United States ing in stark terms the limitations of international law wide resettlement needs have

and the difficulties providing assistance to vulnerable not been met, with only 126,291 Sweden Lebanon hosts more refugees per capita than any people and their host communities. With the destabi- resettlements of UNHCR’s over other country,85,86 accounting for almost 17 percent of REFUGEES HOSTED lizing addition of over a million forced migrants into 22 million registered refugees in United Kingdom its current population and non-Lebanese students— chapter i a country where the government refuses to care for vs. REFUGEES nearly all Syrian—are now the majority in its public 2016, a number that dropped to them and drives many into the shadows, the future Germany 87 92 schools. Neighboring Jordan has the next highest ra- could feasibly spell collapse for Lebanon. “I am going 65,109 in 2017. UNHCR should RESETTLED (2016) tio, with refugees making up approximately 7 percent to make sure that the world understands that Lebanon lead an effort to broaden the Italy its population. Lebanon has long dealt with a complex is on the verge of a breaking point,” said then-Prime base of countries willing to reset- set of political and economic challenges that make the Minister Hariri in March 2017 during a speech on Syrian tle people. Ultimately, rejecting France influx of over 1.2 million Syrians especially taxing and refugees.88 Such a collapse could produce even more or reducing resettlement commit- worrisome for future stability in the region. Before the 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 forced migrants and cascade into regional failures and ments subjects people to further Syrian conflict began, Lebanon already hosted hun- proxy conflicts between major regional actors such as Refugees HostedRefugees Resettled dreds of thousands of Palestinian and Iraqi refugees. Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of whom are actively in- horrors and could create ene- Unlike in Jordan, the over 1.2 million Syrians in Leba- volved in opposite sides of Lebanese politics. mies out of people just looking for survival.

Current U.S. policy debates focus on a few issues—namely resettlement, “burden” sharing, and national security—demonstrating that policymakers have an incom- TURNING BURDENS INTO plete or inaccurate picture of the global forced migration crisis. Even within those topics, the focus misses the bigger picture and, in doing so, means the United OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH States and its allies miss out on important opportunities and increases the potential dangers of inaction. It is worth reviewing the arguments before discussing why it GLOBAL LEADERSHIP AND is in the best interest of the United States and its allies to care about this global problem and why inaction is a choice with consequences. It is also worth examin- SHARED RESPONSIBILITY ing in detail the national security arguments for greater confrontation of the forced migration crisis; these are presented in a Spotlight at the end of this chapter. The Trump administration, like all previous to the solutions to these global issues and do administrations, talks often of “burden shar- not have strong refugee acceptance policies. ing,” or the idea that the United States should These countries—and others like them—are not be responsible for unilaterally or dispro- rarely, if ever, held accountable for a compara- portionately solving the world’s problems. The tive lack of global leadership. A coalition led by RESETTLEMENT United States has led the establishment of the United States and its allies—most of which large networks or countries, multilateral orga- are democracies with broadly shared values— nizations, and processes (often referred to as Resettlement globally is relatively mi- II, the United States has resettled more represents the best hope for leadership in the the rule-based international order) to enable nuscule; far greater numbers of forced refugees than any country in the world, global forced migration crisis. U.S. leadership the sharing of various burdens, including forced migrants outside of their home countries about 3 million people over 40 years.90 remains feasible and remains necessary, espe- migration. The United States has been a global are being “hosted” rather than perma- While still resettling more refugees in leader not just in terms of real resettlement, but cially if it wants to shape the way the world re- nently resettled. However, U.S. and Eu- real terms than any country in the world, in funding to address the roots and results of sponds to this challenge in ways that also serve 25 ropean resettlement policies send pow- the United States has accepted the few- forced migration. It is in the U.S. national secu- U.S. interests. The world continues to look to 91 erful messages to people around the est refugees in 2017 since 2004, citing rity interest to remain the global leader. Some the United States for leadership and solutions world about global leadership, one that national security concerns over vetting countries have benefited from the “free ride” to this global issue and helping solve it strength- elicits discomfort and security concerns procedures—despite having the most of U.S. leadership, have cynically or negligently ens U.S. claims to continue to lead the world. among some, but otherwise comes with extensive vetting system in the world avoided solving these problems, or decreased graphic source comparative long-term benefits based (see “Extremely Thorough Vetting” in commitments over time. Russia, China, and UNHCR, “Global Trends in Forced Migration 2016,” on historical evidence.89 Since World War Chapter IV)—and skepticism over why Saudi Arabia, for example, hardly contribute http://www.unhcr.org/5943e8a34.pdf. COUNTRIES THAT

26 CAN DO MORE

COUNTRY REFUGEE ACTIVITY JAPAN Japan is one of the most generous donors to UNHCR financially—giving over RUSSIA Russia has been a polarizing actor in the conflict in Syria that has produced US $175 million in 2017 as the third-highest single country donor (5 percent chapter i the most forced migrants of any country in the world. Despite its desta- of the total UNHCR budget)—but since 1981, the country has only accept- bilizing role, Russia has not assisted or resettled meaningful numbers of ed approximately 700 refugees. While Middle Eastern and African refugees Syrian forced migrants. While the reporting and status of forced migrants rarely seek asylum in Japan, the country is also resistant to immigration and within Russia is unverifiable—though some reports show that Russia has refugee resettlement, despite its well-documented decreasing population 94 only granted refugee status to one Syrian national since 2011 —it is clear numbers.104 Japan needs to supplement labor shortfalls but integration is that the country barely assists the displaced for whom they are at least part- notoriously difficult in the country given unique labor and cultural character- ly responsible. Russia has a policy of rejecting people without proof of ties istics.105,106 Japan attempts to make up for resettlement shortfalls financially to the country. While rejecting forced migrants or deporting them, Russia with its foreign assistance and development programs, but its acceptance also does not meet humanitarian aid funding obligations, with one analysis rate is still glaringly low at 0.2 percent of applications (in comparison, Ger- 95 showing its financial contributions equating to 1 percent of its “fair share.” many’s acceptance is 40 percent).107 There are small pockets of Afghans in Russia and between 200,000 and 300,000 refugees from Ukraine.96,97 While Russia is party to both the 1951 SAUDI There is much contention about how many refugees Saudi Arabia hosts. Rep- Refugees Convention and the 1967 Protocol, its refusal to assist forced mi- ARABIA resentatives of the country claim that as many as 500,000 Syrians live there, grants without a Russian background—especially in conflicts such as Syria but the country—and others in the Gulf—is not party to the 1951 convention. that they exacerbate—is a dereliction of its international duty. The number (which could be as low as zero by some estimations108) and the rights of forced migrants in Saudi Arabia are not independently verifiable. It CHINA China has no modern refugee resettlement policies nor legislation for asy- is also unclear how many Yemeni refugees the country assists, given Saudi 98 lum seekers and only nine Syrian refugees in the entire country. In addition Arabia’s active and controversial role in ongoing conflicts in Yemen.109 to those excluded from the Middle East, China also does not accept forced migrants from places closer to its borders such as Myanmar. China does INDIA India has proposed a controversial plan to deport Rohingya refugees to contribute some foreign assistance to global forced migration crises and Myanmar and it does not have an official policy of resettling refugees.110,111 was historically welcoming to Vietnamese refugees—though only those of Prime Minister Narendra Modi cited concerns over terror links with the Chinese origin—in the late 1970s,99 but its resettlement program today is 40,000 Rohingya people seeking safety in India.112 essentially nonexistent. As a growing global power, its poor record runs the risk of encouraging similar noncompliance with the 1951 refugee convention by other states. Of great concern is the fact that China simultaneously rejects escaped North Korean citizens—and often forcibly sends them back t the same time, European al- countries have risen, as states resistant into likely persecution in what has been considered a violation of widely ac- lies are increasingly dealing to intake indirectly or directly push refu- 100 “We should take cepted principles of non-refoulement —at the same time that it is actively with forced migrants arriving gees, asylum seekers, and other forced building refugee camps for them in the event of regime collapse.101 China our fair share. does deal with massive internal displacement—mostly from environmental at their borders. While most migrants to more welcoming countries disasters—every year, but its public rejection of refugees is overwhelmingly Aof the globally displaced reside in plac- with social safety nets. Russia has re- We are good people… popular with its citizens. One survey showed 99 percent of Chinese cities already rife with poverty and other peatedly attempted to spread false I don’t see how you zens not wanting to resettle Middle Eastern refugees, some citing impacts issues, millions have walked, driven, stories about refugees and migrants can lead the free of the previous One Child Policy as a reason for not wanting to welcome or taken boats into all parts of Europe. in Europe116 while being accused of new people.102 Consequently, forced migrants rarely list China as a desired Twenty-two out of 28 European coun- using vulnerable people as part of an world and turn your destination for resettlement.103 tries place some variation of “migra- “aggressive strategy towards Europe.”117 back on people who tion” as a top issue for their national for- Instability and tension in Europe could are seeking it. Take eign assistance strategies.113 Brexit and harm U.S. security and economic inter- 27 the Statue of Liberty the rise of nationalist, nativist, or even ests, especially given NATO alliances and tear it down… overtly xenophobic political elements and extensive trade with the region. It is in countries such as Hungary,114 Austria, in the best interest of the United States because we don’t Poland, Sweden, and Germany are but to assist European allies in maintaining mean it anymore.” a few examples of the real and tangible economic growth and security despite effects of forced migration on Europe- these inflows. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)93 an allies.115 Tensions between European “It benefits Dallas to non may decide to close their borders “We should not turn our backs on understand the factors which and forcibly repatriate over a million Syr- cause people to leave their ian refugees back into a war zone. More those refugees who have been 28 homelands and how we can irregular arrivals will create more politi- shown through extensive vetting do a better job in providing cal and economic turmoil in Europe that, to pose no demonstrable threat to in turn, could negatively affect relations our nation, and who have suffered opportunities and working “The San Diego region with the United States. The consequenc- with our collaborative partners has a strong reputa- es of the United States not providing unspeakable horrors, most of them chapter i in the business, philanthropy tion as a welcoming global leadership are a more chaotic, women and children.” and faith-based community to unpredictable, and unsafe world. place for immigrants Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham122 harness opportunities. We know and refugees and their that refugees often come with contributions to our OUR VALUES skills that address the needs of culture and economy.” our growing economy.” The United States has been histori- “As an immigrant and a Veteran, Kevin Faulconer, cally welcoming of refugees and oth- I know that protecting the most Mike Rawlings, Mayor of Dallas Republican Mayor of San Diego121 er forced migrants who have, time and time again, started businesses, con- vulnerable people among us via tributed to culture, and strengthened the U.S. resettlement program communities. Rooted in religious and humanitarian convictions that have his- and humanitarian assistance Beyond ensuring U.S. allies are time, policymakers should rec- refugees pay $21,000 more on torically defined “American values,” the abroad promotes our core stable and successful, it is in the ognize the benefits to leadership average.119 In Miami specifically, United States has always assisted those values and protects our national best interest of the United States at home and abroad: it keeps us the arrival of 125,000 Cuban ref- in need. These values underpinned re- security interests… Both the for forced migrants to thrive in safe, strengthens our economy, ugees was shown to have had no building efforts following World War II, their new homes. Nobody wants and saves lives.118 The United effect on unemployment and ac- led to successful integration of Viet- letter and the spirit of the rule to forcibly leave home and no States should participate actively tually increased average low-skill namese “boat people” after the Vietnam of law, on which our liberties 120 country wishes for more forced in—and arguably lead—the multi- wages. (See Spotlight on the War (see textbox below), and served as rest, require that we honor legal migration. But these phenome- lateral global compact processes Private Sector for more details.) guiding principles when confronted with commitments and procedures na and emergencies exist, and organized by the United Nations the HIV/AIDS crisis in sub-Saharan Afri- ignoring them only makes them (see Annex C) to ensure that U.S. ca since the 2000s. The United States established by law.” The United States should also worse. Instead of seeing forced interests are reflected in the ulti- has long been seen as a beacon of hope migrants a threat, or a “burden” to consider the consequences of 124,125 mate framework. There is a role to so many around the world. While Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) be shared, the United States and not leading. Without leadership for the private sector—especial- responding to genuine humanitarian its allies should lead efforts to turn from the United States and its ally U.S. companies and capital— emergencies for all the right reasons, it the burden of crisis into opportu- lies in confronting the root causes has also been in our enlightened self-in- in addressing these issues and nities for growth. and results of forced migration, terest to help; when we have helped turn some progress could be made the number of people forced from a situation around, we ended up with hough there are strong via U.S.-led bilateral trade prefer- home will undoubtedly contin- more friends to share future burdens arguments for renewed ence deals that could create eco- ue to increase. Uganda, Jordan, U.S. leadership, the Unit- and more trading partners for American nomic value for the United States Bangladesh, and other countries 123 ed States cannot address goods and services. Additionally, if we while offering greater opportunity already grappling with develop- are welcoming to the vulnerable, we will 29 Tthe global forced migration crisis for forced migrants to stay closer ment challenges will face greater have the moral authority with which to alone. The United States should to home. For those that do ulti- pressures that could lead to de- ask others to take a share of the burden. insist that countries not current- mately settle elsewhere, a recent scent into instability and conflict, ly responding to these displace- study showed that refugees pay driving even more people from ment contexts recognize the more in taxes than they receive in their homes. Unable to deal with scale and possible degradation benefits within eight years of ar- the burden of hosting forced mi- of the global order. At the same rival and, if they stay for 20 years, grants, countries such as Leba- SUCCESSFUL INTEGRATION

“I am reminded of the opportunities our great nation has Vietnam’s afforded me since I arrived in the United States at a young age. 30 “Boat People” Fleeing Castro’s communist regime, my family and I found the freedom we yearned for in our native homeland. The community Thrive and I am humbled to represent has thrived, in part, thanks to the contributions of refugees from around the world who have

chapter i Benefit Their found a safe haven in our great country.” Adopted Home Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL)129

The first wave of Vietnamese people came to the Unit- Key factors in the successful integration of the Viet- ed States in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. Many namese included: (i) geography – both in terms of land of these forced migrants, including those known as and real estate availability and the choices made by Another way for the United States to lead and actually benefit from its generosity. “boat people,” reached the United States via Camp new arrivals as to where they live (i.e., not restricting Pendleton, California, after escaping war and harsh homes to a limited area or particular city); (ii) a growing would be to provide greater funding to For generations, people from Ireland, political and socioeconomic conditions back home. community that was able to take care of early entry confront the global forced migration cri- Germany, Russia, Eastern Europe, Arme- At the time, communities in Southern California were problems such as limited language and lack of appro- sis. Especially if the United States lessens nia, Bosnia, and across Latin America, reluctant to accept what was viewed as “a new kind priate job skills; (iii) the first generation’s commitment the number of refugees it accepts—as has Africa, and Southeast Asia—regardless of of immigrant.” Nearly half a century later, many of the to ensuring adequate academic and learning oppor- been the recent trend128—commensurate their religious beliefs—have found safe- “boat people” and their families, together with sub- tunities for the second generation and then the sec- increases should be made to foreign as- ty and opportunity in the United States. sequent waves of Vietnamese immigrants that came ond generation for the third; (iv) critical government Many have gone on to thrive and benefit to the United States well into the 1990s, successfully programs that supported the learning of language, sistance. A vacuum in leadership in fund- integrated into their adopted country. Today, as the formal schooling, and essential services to ensure ing or resettlement is counterproductive the country in immeasurable ways. nation’s sixth-largest ethnic population, members basic standards of living, inter-ethnic and cultural ex- to U.S. foreign policy and security objec- Today, most forced migrants are either of the Vietnamese-American community represent periences, and civic engagement; (v) family reunifica- tives and makes it harder for the United parts of Southern California in local and state gov- Christians or Muslims.130 They petition to tion that ensured families stayed strong and intact; (vi) States to lead a coalition of allies in what ernments, and play leading roles in academia, trade not perceiving the Southern Vietnamese as “hostile” resettle in the United States not to hurt and commerce (including firms offering high-skilled, must be a global effort. or “threats to peace and stability”; and (vii) the faith- it, but to access and contribute to the high-paying opportunities), and community service based values and ties of many of the immigrants that he apprehension that many in land of opportunity. Many have faced un- organizations. allowed many families to rely on faith-based institutions for essential social and economic support. the United States feel over in- imaginable hardship in their homelands, creasing the number of accept- on the journey, and find lingering chal- ed refugees and other forced lenges in new countries. Now—especial- Tmigrants into the country cannot and ly in their host communities—they are should not be ignored. However, many of It has long been an American value to United Nations, if acted upon, would be becoming drivers of economic growth, these apprehensions are based on more depoliticize humanitarian funding and a departure from tradition.126,127 Where- essential to the fabric of society, and nebulous perceptions of forced migrants priorities. Though the American people as similar proposals were presented by examples of the far-reaching benefits of potentially shifting cultural values and have the right and obligation to ask why past Democratic and Republican admin- properly channeling American values. and where tax dollars are spent over- norms. Assuming forced migrants are istrations, the decision was always made It is understandable and expected that seas—especially development assis- criminals or terrorists is not substantiated to protect humanitarian aid from condi- the United States should exercise its tance that can more effectively be used by data and is a slippery slope into xeno- tionality. Beyond values alone, there sovereignty and ensure that those com- to support U.S. foreign policy and secu- phobic territory. It has always been a core has been a broad understanding that ing across its borders will do no harm. rity objectives—humanitarian aid to the part of American values—from welcom- the conditioning of humanitarian aid of- 31 most vulnerable has largely been pro- ing the tired, poor, and huddled masses Confronting forced migration does not tected from periodic bipartisan efforts ten complicates crises and can result in to Ellis Island to confronting famine in have to violate U.S. security nor eco- to politicize and place conditions on it. greater required investment in the long Ethiopia—to accept and assist those in nomic goals. Rather, confronting forced Recent proposals from the United States run. For these and other reasons, no need. In the case of forced migrants, with migration will lead to greater security, to limit humanitarian aid for countries U.S. administration has withheld human- proper controls and management, the stronger allies, and a stronger economy that do not align with the United States itarian aid for political aims since at least United States can adhere to its values resistant to external shocks. on a political level or vote similarly in the the end of the Cold War. $16 TOTAL AID FOR FORCED INACTION IS A REAL MIGRATION ISSUES 32 CHOICE WITH REAL $14 CONSEQUENCES Refugees Humanitarian Public Governance, Other Other in Donor Aid Service Peace, and Country- Non-Country Countries Provision Security Programmable Programmable chapter i Aid Aid The proportion of all foreign as- mestically, a vast increase from $12 sistance going to address forced comparatively small percentages migration issues is growing quick- just 10 years ago.134 ly; however, limited resources are rregular and forced migra- spent on the most immediate tion are likely to increase over emergency and comparatively lit- time unless steps are taken tle is spent on dealing with root $10 now to confront root causes causes. If the root causes are not I(see Chapter II). If global forced dealt with, far larger amounts of migration rates continue trends foreign assistance will necessari- from 2000 to 2015, it is estimated ly go to responding to even more that between 180 and 320 million emergencies in the very near fu- people will be forced from home $8 ture. The United States planned by conflict in 2030.135 Many of the to spend $49 billion in 2016 on most affected people do not have foreign assistance, of which 12.9 the financial means to leave their percent ($6.3 billion) was spent country and thus, upon forced on humanitarian relief. displacement, become wards of $6 Globally, humanitarian assistance the international system. totaled $20.3 billion, 14 percent The global youth bulge—espe- of all official development as- cially prevalent in sub-Saharan 131,132 sistance (ODA). In the same Africa—is an opportunity for un- year, OECD DAC countries spent paralleled economic growth, if $4 over $25 billion on forced migra- linked properly with education, tion issues, or approximately 17.5 economics, and infrastructure.136,137 133 percent of all global ODA. In At the same time, if social and po- other words, the combination of litical progress, personal safety, addressing forced migration and and jobs do not keep up, there humanitarian relief requires a sig- will be more conflict and more $2 nificant portion of all foreign as- forced migration. In large part sistance to be spent addressing due to the ubiquity of mobile symptoms—not roots—of forced technology, at no point in histo- migration. Additionally, there has ry have people around the world 33 been an explosion of resourc- been so aware of the opportuni- es spent in developed countries ties that exist elsewhere and the dealing with forced migrants, comparative challenges they ex- 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 largely in Europe. More than 10 perience at home. These issues graphics source percent of all foreign assistance are already showing in the thou- VizHub, “Financing Global Health 1995–2015,” https://vizhub.healthdata.org/fgh/; IFRC, “World Disasters Report 2012,” http://www.ifrc.org/Global/ and over half of all forced migra- sands of unaccompanied minors Documents/Secretariat/2012_WDR_Full_Report.pdf; and Development Initiatives, http://devinit.org/.134 tion spending is now diverted do- flowing from Central America SPOTLIGHT ON “Above all, the [NATO] alliance must assist in tackling the root of the problem: the war into the United States, or the Syr- ed States should invest more in NATIONAL ian and Iraqi children in Sweden, predicting forced migration, just in Syria and the rise of the so-called Islamic and the millions of young Afri- as the United States created a SECURITY State. Dealing with the refugees is like treat- 34 cans who may be unemployed in global system for early detection ing the symptoms of a very serious illness; coming years. The young people of famines and acute food insecu- it is helpful but not a cure.” of today will lead their countries rity.139 The U.S. Holocaust Memo- tomorrow and will consider the rial Museum in Washington, D.C., United States and its allies as ei- has a similar early warning tool Adm. (Ret.) James Stavridis, Dean, chapter i FORCED ther friends or foes. to predict genocide and mass Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University atrocities. Egypt, Lebanon, South MIGRANT e want these coun- Sudan, El Salvador, and others all MOBILE tries to prosper show signs of instability that could and we want these ultimately result in increased young people to feel There are serious national security con- security threats and the resulting forced PHONE forced migration to neighboring cerns and legitimate fears surrounding migration in the first place. Some critics Winvested in the future of their own countries and beyond. We need COVERAGE societies.138 We want countries forced migration. Vulnerable people of vetting have cited rising terrorist rates to understand how to plan for and in transit often use irregular migration in Europe as a reason for limiting admit- to be resilient enough to handle prevent future crises. If forced mi- Rural shocks that force citizens from routes also used by human and drug traf- tance of refugees, but those attacks are gration is not dealt with appro- fickers and terrorists, since many have vastly more often committed by home- . their homes. To do this, we need priately, social, economic, and no other recourse for escaping danger. grown attackers.140 20% 17% 10% 29% to enable opportunities for stabil- political unrest within and across ity, economic growth, and devel- Every country has a sovereign right and countries will become the norm. duty to protect its borders. The arrival of As shown in this report, forced mi- opment. For those forced to leave, grants are often the most vulnerable we should seek to keep them Inaction is a real choice with real forced migrants at the border is sometimes considered to pose a threat to and unable to support themselves once close to home (as many forced mi- consequences. Denial and wish- displaced. At the same time, interna- grants wish to do anyway), working the crisis to simply “go away” that sovereignty; in fact, confronting the 63% 61% tional law leaves significant numbers ing toward peace in their coun- (or that someone else will handle global forced migration crisis abroad, of forced migrants behind; even where Urban tries so they can voluntarily return it or that it’s someone else’s prob- bringing people out of the shadows, such law exists, and response mecha- when it is safe to do so. There is lem) will only make it worse. and dealing effectively with those who . nisms and organizations are in place, unprecedented strain on U.S. al- do arrive at the border is essential to many are still forced into the shadows lies in the developed and devel- maintaining national security. Ultimate- 10% by traffickers and smugglers. oping world. A number of these ly, national security requires more than 89% 10% walls and restrictions on refugee travel. countries could be broken by in- Pushing people into the shadows makes 1% creased levels of forced migration, The United States and its allies vet forced us less safe. Travel restrictions for refu- 90% leading to regional instability and migrants extremely well. It is critical to gees and other forced migrants do lit- even economic collapse. have vigorous vetting and screening of tle more than temporarily trap people, potentially in dangerous scenarios that Total People are on the move global- all arrivals and to minimize the risk of bad actors slipping through any cracks in could force them into illicit and shad- . ly and the root causes of forced owy transit routes.141 Bringing people 62% migration are increasing in length the system. The United States, Europe- out of the shadows and regularizing and number. Armed conflicts are an Union, and other developed regions 34% their journey onward (or back home) is now protracted by default and typically employ rigorous vetting sys- in our national security interest. As not- increasing in number; extreme tems (see “Extremely Thorough Vetting” 61% ed by UNHCR, if people “are unable to environmental events are more in Chapter IV) to ensure that the forced 35 5% enter a particular state legally, they often 7% 31% frequent and destructive. Forced migrants granted admittance arrive with employ the services of human smugglers migration is a reality that must be the best of intentions. These systems— and embark on dangerous sea or land 3G 2G managed, not ignored. The Unit- complete with robust border controls, in-person interview processes, biomet- voyages, which many do not survive.”142 ric iris scanning, and other assuranc- Some forced migrants are also at risk graphic source es—can be supplemented by improved of preventable diseases for which they UNHCR, “Connecting Refugees: How Internet and Mobile Connectivity Can Improve Refugee Well-Being and stabilization mechanisms to minimize could have been screened and treated Transform Humanitarian Action,” http://www.unhcr.org/innovation/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/20160707- Connecting-Refugees-Web_with-signature.pdf. were they not in the shadows. For exam- organizations such as ISIS, but to exacer- generation opportunities for young peo- “Refugees are not ists and terrorists. In addition to Fact ple, it is anticipated that at least some of bate development challenges that could ple who, upon reaching adulthood in 8 presented in the introduction to this Deaths by Foreign the 50,000 Venezuelans crossing into destabilize countries and ultimately make many fragile regions of the world, need causing the violence. report, it is worth noting that, of the Born Terrorists Colombia each day have not been “im- the United States and its allies less safe. opportunities for productive engage- They are actually 3.25 million refugees who have arrived munized against formerly eradicated dis- ment in the economy to avoid being lured the ones fleeing it. in the United States since 1975, only Terrorism eases like measles and diphtheria,” thus In the case of Australia, policy chang- abroad or, worse, into the false promises three have successfully committed VISA Death per Total 143 es in the early 2010s substantially Almost all recent fatal terrorist attacks, and all three of CATEGORY Category Terrorists 36 increasing public health concerns. of violent extremism. Regenerating and stemmed the flow of irregular migrants restarting growth and promoting strong terror attacks in our the attackers were Cuban.151,152 Syrian All 3,024 154 Without more and better ways to regular- arriving by boat. However, tens (or even and resilient economies in post-crisis own nation have refugees have killed zero U.S. citizens, ize the arrival and integration of forced, hundreds) of thousands of people are countries are all necessary ingredients come from long-term with zero attacks conducted by Syrians irregular, and other migrants, more des- waiting in neighboring countries for the for ensuring the national security of the or ISIS in the United States to date.153,154 Tourist 2,834 34 perate people will be pushed into the opportunity to join family and friends.146,147 residents or citizens, chapter i United States and its allies. Even the deadliest attack after 9/11 shadows, susceptible to predatory ele- They are not returning home and are (which itself was not executed by ref- 144 not new refugees.” ments like human traffickers, “coyotes,” creating local and sometimes national Addressing root causes there has nation- ugees) in San Bernardino was perpe- Student 158.5 19 and other smugglers. In this way, human issues in countries—for example, Indo- al security benefits here. Once forced Ed Stetzer, Executive Director, trated by a U.S.-born citizen and a Paki- trafficking is intricately linked to forced nesia and Mexico—that are themselves from home, most people are willing to Fiancé Billy Graham Center, stan-born lawful resident who together migration in ways that are rarely dis- developing and ill equipped to handle do whatever it takes to ensure safety and 14 1 Wheaton College157 had amassed stockpiles of weapons visa (K-1) cussed. These illegal operators pose a the volumes of forced and irregular security in the short term and achieve and ammunition legally. Lawful threat to vulnerable populations as well migrants waiting for the opportunity to normalcy in the longer term. If that takes militaries should play a direct role— The lack of evidence of deadly violence Permanent as to security and economic interests journey onward. Simply keeping people moving through the shadows—especial- though these actors should understand 8 54 perpetrated by refugees and other of developed and developing countries out does not solve the issues; in fact, it ly if more regular and legal means are the side effects of taking action. Prior- Resident forced migrants can be credited in part alike. These operators smuggle forced may lead to greater regional instability unavailable—many forced migrants are ity should be given to stabilization first to extremely thorough vetting proce- Asylum migrants and victims of trafficking along- that could, in turn, lead to greater dan- willing to risk uncertainty and even pun- in conflict situations, looking out for 4 4 dures (see Chapter IV). It is also likely side drugs and weapons because they gers and challenges for Australia, Spain, ishment in countries such as the United and addressing civilian movements via realize there is significant money to be South Africa, the United Kingdom, Mo- States or Sweden if it means escape that forced migrants are often the ones close cooperation with diplomatic and fleeing terrorists in search of safety Refugee 3 20 made from desperate people. rocco, the United States, and so forth. from the horrors of home. The levels of development experts. Even if an end resilience and work ethic of those that rather than joining their ranks. to conflict is the justification for armed Though each is deserving of further or domestic political reasons, the successfully escape tend to by high. Illegal 1 10 engagement, security actors must do However, one event could change ev- study, there are examples of policies developed world may struggle to For example, Bosnian brothers in De- everything in their power to limit the erything. Though the data shows over- that bring vulnerable groups such as acknowledge the economic ben- troit who grew their business during negative effects of the conflict on inno- whelmingly that forced migrants are not Unknown 1.5 9 forced migrants and victims of traffick- efits that forced and irregular the 2008 economic recession said they cent civilians; one consequence of not terrorists, a single crime or act of terror ing out from the shadows while cracking Fmigrants represent. Perhaps the best could survive anything after escaping doing so is even more sustained forced by a refugee or other forced migrant in Visa Waiver down on illegal organizations. The Unit- compromise for the foreseeable future genocide in the 1990s.149 ed States, for example, recently granted is to increase opportunities and create migration that could create spillover the United States could shift the broad- Program 0 3 nonimmigrant legal status to victims of incentives for more safe and predictable Ultimately, national security needs to in- insecurities elsewhere. Once stability er political narrative against forced (VWP) trafficking who assist in prosecutions channels for regularized—and legal— clude issues far from our borders. It is in is achieved, national security actors migrants and toward more restrictive 155 of their traffickers.145 Much like it can- migration, especially for those forced the national security interests of the Unit- should prioritize peacebuilding and the policies that, as shown above, would The terrorist attacks on 9/11 resulted in the not and should not confront the global from home. Simultaneously supporting ed States and its allies to address the root restoration of the services necessary have negative repercussions on nation- deaths of 2,983 people (excluding the 19 forced migration crisis alone, the United foreign assistance and development causes of forced migration (see Chapter for people to feel like they can stay and al security. The vast majority of forced hijackers). Discounting the horrific attacks migrants pose no security threat to the on 9/11, only 41 people were murdered States cannot and should not be expect- can assist countries of first asylum, II); if fewer people are forced to leave rebuild, supporting early recovery. One United States and have largely positive in the U.S. by foreign-born terrorists be- ed to improve global security on its own. potentially help to keep people nearer home in the first place, fewer will seek way of understanding—and mitigating— tween 1975 and 2015. While 1 person is impacts on their recipient communities.156 Countries where illegal organizations to their homes (e.g., the probability of access to the United States by whatev- negative repercussions is to integrate too many, the linkages drawn between refugees, immigration, and terrorism sim- operate in the shadows must take great- return of a South Sudanese forced mi- er means necessary. An increased focus more civilian diplomatic and develop- Political leaders must be cognizant of ply do not exist mathematically. er responsibility for their demise. grant is likely higher in Uganda than it should also be placed on combating vio- ment personnel into pretheater train- these issues and impulses, focusing at- is if that person journeys onward to Eu- lent extremism in countries that produce ings, especially those who understand Developing strong and resilient develop- tention away from fear of “others” and rope or the United States), support re- large numbers of forced migrants. Vio- how conflict affects forced migration. toward solutions. These policies must 37 ing country economies is a national se- construction, and reduce “brain drain” lent extremism is not only more preva- necessarily include border security, but curity issue. Tough immigration policies Forced migrants have not committed that can limit the capacity of a country lent in these places, it kills more people must look beyond to a future in which, and rhetoric undeniably win votes in deadly acts of terror in the United States to emerge from conflict and other root and is a far greater risk to U.S., Europe- left unconfronted, conflicts abroad in- elections, especially in today’s era of ris- 148 150 in at least three decades. It is important causes of forced migration. an, and global security. crease in severity and duration, forcing ing populism, protectionism, and nation- to separate vulnerable people—for ex- graphic source more people from home, into the shad- aliswm. But they have the potential not Supporting economic growth in develop- Where appropriate (e.g., ending armed ample, someone forced from home— Alex Nowrasteh, “Terrorism and Immigration: ows, and ultimately to our borders. A Risk Analysis,” Cato Institute, September 13, only to result in a strengthening of illegal ing countries could also result in income conflicts), national security actors and from nefarious actors such as extrem- 2016, https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/ D SPOTLIGHT*** pubs/pdf/pa798_2.pdf. HOME Bassima left the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2016. Renewed violence across 38 the country between Muslim and Christian groups vying for power158 finally arrived on her doorstep. After the murder of her brother, chapter ii the rape of her daughter, and the destruction of their house and theft of their possessions, they made their escape. Desperate for any way out, they were trafficked through Burkina Faso, Mali, and some of the most fragile regions in the world, facing harassment and danger at every stage. The baby her daughter carried as a result of the rape was born in Chad; Bassima now cares for the baby after her daughter died during the journey across

Bassima traveled West Africa. Now in relative safety in Senegal over 3,000 miles. with little hope of resettlement elsewhere, she That’s longer than the distance between considers herself one of the lucky ones. Miami and Seattle.

Like the tens of millions of others forced from home around the world, Bassima thinks little of refugee status, resettlement quotas, “extreme vetting,” or UNHCR and IOM processes that officially define her rights and could influence her future. From the father and FORCED his family who walked over 80 miles from Damascus to Jordan with a limp he suffered shielding his daughter from a mortar, to the notary public who was forced to leave The Gambia because she would not sign government medical forms condoning torture of 39 prisoners of war, to the 20-year-old Rohingya mother and widow who watched her family FROM home and husband burn while Burmese soldiers looked on,159 each story of the almost 66 million people forcibly displaced globally is unique and personal. The choice to leave was ultimately not theirs to make, but they dream of a better future. While the root causes of forced migration range from political, religious, and ethnic persecution to natural disaster, from urbanization and development to armed conflict, Bassima and her fellow forced migrants are united in their singular desire for safety, security, and stability. HOME FORCED MIGRATION ST 40 IN THE 21 CENTURY chapter II The root causes of forced and gee camp in Dadaab, Kenya, was irregular migration crises today established in 1991 for escaping often differ, but most are funda- Somalis, many of whom have mentally rooted in inadequate “children and grandchildren or inappropriate responses to born in the camps.”161 The United conflict or disaster, governance States and much of the world’s failures, inequality, and underde- forced migration assistance ef- “No matter what velopment. Even in natural disas- forts respond to crises through policies the United ters, a lack of resilience exacer- one-off assistance programs that States and other donors bates situations and causes more rely on yearly replenishments as people to forcibly migrate. situations protract. If the interna- use to stifle the flow of tional community continues to As conflicts evolve, so should treat forced and irregular migra- forced migrants from sures could also be the source of straints, lack of social services, resources—and nonassistance the responses to them. Beyond tion crises as short-term emer- other countries, push future conflict that drives people ethnic conflict, environmental di- resources, such as trade and changing how the global com- gencies rather than symptoms of from their homes. saster, and other emergencies so diplomacy—in confronting the factors will continue munity assists forced migrants, it larger global problems, the aver- often at the root of forced migra- root causes of forced migration. to force people out of must change how the initial and age length of displacement will Almost 95 percent of forced mi- 162 tion continue to grow. The State Department and U.S. their homes. Bad gov- underlying causes of forced mi- continue to increase. gration (including IDPs and refu- gration crises develop and get Agency for International Devel- gees) occurs exclusively within lthough preventing ernance, corruption, stuck in cyclical instability. Each Protracted displacement could opment (USAID) need to be em- developing countries, most with- conflict and other root political problems, un- crisis requires a tailored response, become particularly prevalent powered to operate in concert in or around cities. Cities contain causes of forced mi- but it is worth exploring ways to if instability continues to inhib- with one another in these crises, derdevelopment, weak approximately 60 percent of the gration is cheaper than BULENT KILIC/AFP/GETTY IMAGES protect and support communities it economic growth while more involving political experts, de- global refugee population (and an institutions, and social young people need jobs. Current Aresponding to them—$1 of risk- velopment agencies, and secu- before they experience contexts even greater percentage of the reduction assistance equates to issues create situations that drive forced migration. demographic trends, a lack of rity experts as early as possible in societies where peo- commensurate job and econom- IDP population) and are appeal- about $15 in future response— in response scenarios. Develop- ple have no option but The international community ic growth, and growing fragility ing due to informal settlements the United States continues to ment programming has not been has rightly focused much atten- could lead to greater forced mi- and available jobs. But the mass operate primarily via a short-term strategically aligned enough to to flee. The best way to tion on protecting and providing gration and even more protract- influx of people into these con- mindset.167,168,169 Admittedly, ad- confront forced migration issues counter this increasing for people during their periods ed displacement.163 Already de- texts exacerbates existing chal- dressing the long-term, systemat- thus far, not focusing enough on trend is to focus on the of displacement, but conflicts veloping, fragile, and unstable lenges such as overcrowding and ic, development-related issues so resiliency to shocks. As more continue to grow and worsen in countries will face increasing de- bad infrastructure. As mentioned, often at the root of forced migra- and more people become forced root causes in addition the meantime, forcing historic mand for public services, health- 84 percent of refugees live in tion is challenging and can take from home and vulnerable pop- numbers of people from home.160 developing countries, meaning ulations complicate existing to the symptoms.” care, education, jobs, and infra- years or decades—well beyond 41 In fact, many of these initially structure as their populations almost 19 million of the world’s typical political and budget cycles. challenges in new contexts, the Ambassador Ellen Sauerbrey, short-term emergencies—such grow.164 In the short term, popula- most vulnerable people reside in international donor community Former Assistant Secretary of State, as the displacement caused by tion pressures could lead to more communities that were already In addition to providing emergen- must think of new ways to con- 165,166 Bureau of Population, Refugees civil war in Somalia in the early people seeking livelihoods and unstable and underdeveloped. cy foreign assistance to respond front the root causes of forced and Migration 1990s—are now entering their job security away from home, As developing countries grap- to immediate crises, the United migration, leveraging new strat- third or fourth decade of human- especially if global mobility be- ple with these disruptive trends, States and other donors should egies, thought processes, sec- itarian assistance. The first refu- comes easier. The same pres- cyclical instability, resource con- invest more foreign assistance tors, tools, and partners. WHERE WE’RE HEADED

The United States should consid- and investment in fragile states Lessons from er placing more USAID missions that disproportionately produce THE ROOT in places that are current—or like- forced migrants. Significant in- 42 the Alliance ly future—hotspots of forced mi- creases in U.S. and other country CAUSES gration (e.g., Burundi and Central funding (e.g., capital increases) for Prosperity African Republic). To enable this to these groups should be con- UNHCR cites three phenomena move, the United States could tingent on their adequately ad- for the rapid increase and now consider closing some missions dressing fragile states that dis- chapter II historic levels of forced displace- in middle-income countries. proportionately produce forced ment: refugee scenarios are be- Almost 9 percent of the population in the Northern These new missions—and their migrants. Triangle—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras— “The Alliance for coming more protracted; past respective embassies—should While addressing the root causes has emigrated away from their countries in the past Prosperity experience conflicts are reigniting or expand- be properly equipped with the 170 of forced migration will require few years. Widespread lack of economic opportu- ing; and there is a general lack personnel structure that allows nity, security, and governance drove these people shows that long-term dedicated, targeted, and in many of solutions for the root causes people to make commitments to, out of their countries, into other developing situa- .175 cases long-term assistance, U.S. partnership and of these crises Forced migra- and investments in, longer-term tions in Mexico, Panama, and Costa Rica. The United successfully achieving stability, States took notice when thousands of unaccompa- leadership matters and tion crises are typically based in solutions to forced migration. Pri- development, and better gov- nied minors crossed its southern border in the sum- some mixture of ethnic, political, can make a difference in orities should be given to hiring ernance represents an unparal- mer of 2014. Beyond the injustices and horrors these or religious conflict and violence. and training quality local staff to children suffered, leaders in the United States and countries like El Salvador. But increasingly, environmental leled opportunity for U.S. invest- take on senior management po- ment and security in some of the across Central America understood that this irregular Its focus on economic disasters, unmanaged urbaniza- migration was a symptom of larger underdevelop- sitions and programming should world’s most promising emerging tion and development, famine, ment across the region. growth, anticorruption, include working with and through economies. Ensuring stability and food insecurity, and human-made local organizations, also consid- development across Africa, for The United States and the Northern Triangle coun- and rule of law offers disasters exacerbate ongoing ref- ering innovative financing mech- example, could improve growth tries assessed the long-term possibilities and issues valuable lessons for ugee, displacement, and forced associated with underdevelopment and migration in anisms such as enterprise funds and access to agriculture (val- migration scenarios or create the region. In late 2014, in partnership with the In- how to confront big and blended finance. Leaders ued at over $100 billion, and $1 new ones. The international com- ter-American Development Bank, the Northern Tri- challenges like the of these USAID missions should trillion by 2030), banking (over $1 angle countries launched the “Plan for the Alliance munity has had difficulty address- be given more flexibility and less trillion since 2008), infrastructure for Prosperity.” The resulting Alliance for Prosperity forced migration crisis.” ing the underlying reasons for prescription from Washington. ($12 billion annually since 2008), (AFP) launched in 2016 as a concerted effort by the (and responding to) these crises three Northern Triangle countries, as well as the cybersecurity and technology, Juan Jose Daboub, Chairman and through traditional assistance. egional political bodies United States and other Central American countries mining, oil and gas, and tele- CEO, the Daboub Partnership, Former (e.g., the Association of to jumpstart tax reform, anticorruption efforts, and communications markets.176,177 Al- A common thread among the Southeast Asian Nations private-sector opportunities in the region. The Unit- Managing Director of the World Bank lowing—via inaction or improper ed States committed approximately $750 million to root causes discussed in this and African Union) also and Former Minister of Finance action—forced migration to grow this effort—a 35 percent increase from its previous of El Salvador. chapter is underdevelopment Rhave important roles to play and unabated across the developing year’s commitment to the region—to comprehensive- and poor governance. Violence should be encouraged to provide world would stifle growth in these ly, thoroughly, and quickly address the issues that led and famine manifest differently, solutions. Pressure from one’s to the migration crisis.171 Since then, the United States industries and prevent American for example, but both can typi- neighbor is often more power- has pledged billions of dollars to the effort, though it widespread and systemic issues through private-sec- consumers and companies from tor incentives, tax reform, and security commitments. cally be attributed to one or both ful than pressure from farther remains unclear if Northern Triangle countries have accessing them. The root causes the appetite to maintain focus on prosperity, security, One particularly relevant component of the mod- of these factors. Stabilization and abroad. Issues in one country discussed in this chapter desta- and governance via partnership.172 el is that with the AFP, Northern Triangle countries famine reduction can prevent also have greater potential to themselves are primarily responsible for funding the bilize the world and stand in the forced migration, but stability in spill over into neighboring coun- In March 2015, then-Vice President Joe Biden trav- programs, while the United States represents only way of unmeasurable amounts of both cases also creates space tries. Thus, regional political bod- eled to the Northern Triangle with then-Southcom a portion of the financial stake. For example, while unrealized economic activity. 43 Commander Gen. John Kelly to advance implemen- Central America imported $27 billion worth of goods for development and better gov- ies should take a leading and ac- tation of the AFP plans. In June 2017, Vice President from the United States in 2016, foreign assistance to ernance to take hold, increasing tivist role in addressing the root Economic collapses, famines, 174 Mike Pence publicly continued the U.S. commitment these countries only totaled $2 billion. The concert- resilience to future shocks and causes of forced migration. Addi- armed conflicts, and climate to the AFP, support that exists to this day. Though not ed partnership involving all relevant countries, multi- thus diminishing the number of tionally, the World Bank and other change and environment-related without its critics,173 the AFP is still in its early stages laterals entities such as the Inter-American Develop- and is worth considering as a model for how stake- ment Bank, and donors such as the United States is people forced from home for multilateral development banks disasters do not automatically re- holder countries in the global forced migration cri- one possible structure for ensuring growth, stability, indefinite periods of time when (MDBs) should be encouraged sult in forced migration; it is when sis can make longer-term commitments to address and independence in forced migration contexts. they inevitably occur. to increase their involvement these are coupled with underdevelopment and poor governance minutes to leave home, potential- return home.181 But many of the further regional destabilization. deportations have been indirect- sion and persecution not only sti- that a lack of resiliency drives ly never to return. These types conflicts themselves are rooted Lebanon, for example, has been ly associated with an increased fle personal freedoms, they can people from their homes for long of conflicts are also perhaps the in preventable, manageable, or at hosting Palestinian refugees for rate of organized criminal activity force people into subjugation. In 44 periods of time. These issues hardest ones to prevent and stop, least monitorable scenarios. The decades, and the recent influx of in Central America.189 Past fail- Eritrea, for example, the govern- cannot be resolved overnight, especially since their roots are so beginning of the conflict in Syria, Syrians has played a big role in its ures in domestic integration pol- ment regularly forces people into and true solutions could take often in political and ethnic differ- for example, has been linked to current economic woes and high icy as well as underdevelopment limitless military service, leading years or decades to achieve; but ences that development assis- a drought and crop failures that unemployment rates, increasing and fragility abroad ensure the thousands—especially but not it is important to understand their tance is often poorly equipped to pushed over 1 million people from strains on the social fabric. The survival of these gangs. uniquely young men—to flee the chapter II underlying root cause before de- address. Addressing the causes their rural homes to urban settings conflict itself has further disrupt- country every year for fear of signing necessary solutions. of armed conflict and violence is and spurred protests against the ed the Lebanese economy as rmed conflict and vio- having to live in slavery-like con- complex and difficult, in part be- lack of public services in the Assad many companies were export- lence will continue to ditions.191 North Korea holds an Below are the main—though not 182 spur forced migration cause protagonists rarely enjoy government. Violent conflict has ing into a Syrian market that no estimated 80,000–120,000 peo- the only—root causes of forced and will continue to real legitimacy with the popula- been linked to competition for nat- longer exists. Though forced mi- ple in labor camps and threatens migration. tion. Peace agreements often re- ural resources in several contexts.183 Abe difficult to monitor or respond to send many more into these grants have the potential to add to in meaningful ways. But there 192 volve around the interests of the In anticipation of future armed value to host communities (see horrific conditions. ARMED CONFLICT are ways to predict conflict, and warring groups (and their exter- conflicts—and thus future forced Spotlight on the Private Sector), these tools should be explored as The authoritarian Maduro regime AND VIOLENCE nal supporters) rather than those migration—there may be other de- even in countries like Lebanon,186 of the public at large. veloping country contexts around ways to predict—and preemptive- in Venezuela is destroying the Armed conflicts, in all their vari- these are scenarios where ef- 193 the world where the protection of ly respond to—future forced mi- country’s economy, causing ous forms, are the greatest root fective development assistance Despite the diversifying types of resources and strengthening of gration. If our ability to predict fu- citizens to flee into Colombia, a cause of protracted displace- focused on foundational issues conflict and actors, those seek- institutions or good governance ture and resolve ongoing conflict country itself in the midst of an in- ment and forced migration.178 On- could help bolster stability and ing protection under interna- now could help ensure general is not improved, the United States ternal peace process and a con- going conflicts in Syria, Afghan- reduce levels of forced migration. tional law rely on conventions security in the future. and other bilateral donors, as well tinued presence of armed groups istan, Somalia, South Sudan, developed in the 1950s. Armed Gang violence is another key as neighboring countries, need to that themselves forced many Sudan, the Democratic Republic conflict will almost always result By 2030, over half of the world’s driver of forced migration. Iron- be prepared for continued high from home in the not-so-distant of Congo, Central African Repub- in necessary humanitarian and poor will live in countries affect- ically, several drug-financedlevels of forced migration. past. Venezuelans are forced to lic, Myanmar, Eritrea, Venezuela, emergency assistance, especial- ed by high levels of violent con- gangs originated in Southern flee out of fear of violence, ac- Colombia, and others have com- 184 ly to innocent civilians, and this flict, meaning the most vulner- California in the 1980s before About 20 percent of the popula- tive persecution of anyone who bined to force approximately 20 is an important role for foreign able populations will be exposed traveling abroad, most notably tion lives in countries experienc- disagrees with the regime, and a million people from their homes.179 assistance. But it is worth con- to the most conflict, undoubtedly to El Salvador.187 In the United ing significant fragility; by 2035, chillingly pervasive hunger that Common among these conflicts sidering ways that development leading to even higher levels of has caused the average Venezu- States, gangs serve as com- these countries will also be home is their protracted nature. Civil assistance and the international forced migration. This phenom- elan to lose 24 pounds in 2017. munity gathering points for un- to 80 percent of the world’s ex- wars, on average, last between 7 community writ large can prevent enon is particularly acute in the 190 Many are traveling as far as Ec- derserved populations. Similar tremely poor. Armed conflicts and 12 years, so even the newest some armed conflicts from wors- Middle East and North Africa; uador, Brazil, Peru, and Chile just to how organizations like Hez- drive the most people from home of these (e.g., Syria and Yemen) ening or starting in the first place. while the region accounts for for safety and basic necessities.194 bollah operate in Lebanon— and are increasingly impeding could presumably last well be- Development actors should ex- only 5 percent of the global pop- Some 629,000 Venezuelans providing services and security development potential; it is time yond 2020.180 That means that plore how best to leverage or ulation, it experiences 68 percent were forced to flee in 2017 alone, for the communities in which they to create a world in which the op- not only will masses of people support nonassistance tools such of war-related deaths, contains victims of persecution, political live—gangs are service providers posite is true. It is time for devel- continue to be forced from their as human intelligence, statecraft, almost half of the global IDPs, oppression, and economic mal- and give identity to marginalized opment to impede conflict. homes to new cities, regions, and and diplomacy, acknowledging and over half of all refugees.185 feasance by the Maduro regime. populations. Current federal im- countries, but they will be dis- and learning from past failures. migration laws, enforced by the PERSECUTION, placed longer as peace and secu- Efforts should incorporate con- The populations of places like Economic malfeasance not only Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt are Department of Homeland Securi- POLITICAL results in the devastation being rity become increasingly elusive. flict-sensitive lenses and take 45 ty’s Criminal Alien Program,188 al- into account locally relevant po- growing rapidly but their econ- OPPRESSION, witnessed in Venezuela; it also low for the removal of criminals Armed conflicts often causelitical and cultural sensitivities. omies are not keeping pace; it AND ECONOMIC manifests in extreme inequality, abrupt forced migration (e.g., is plausible to think that these and confirmed gang members to MALFEASANCE as was the case in Darfur, Su- armed actors murder a family As armed conflict and violence issues, when coupled with an their respective countries of ori- dan, where tribal struggles for member or commit other human spreads, more people are likely influx of large numbers of Syr- gin. Due to the sheer number of Even without overt armed conflict, decades have their roots in some rights atrocities), where people to move farther from home and ians escaping conflict, could foreign national gang members people can be forced from home groups feeling excluded from like Bassima may not even have become less likely to eventually eventually result in collapse and identified in the United States, due to violence. Political oppres- the resource wealth and power “Five times more people are affected by disasters today sharing from which others have over 180 million people were than a generation floods in Pakistan that displaced benefited. This feeds into delib- displaced globally by disaster, 11 million people205 and the 2013 erate manipulation of ethnic and mainly by flooding, storms, and ago. As a result of Typhoon Haiyan that displaced 4 46 religious differences by govern- earthquakes.198 Beyond these protracted conflict and million people in the Philippines “Seventy percent of people living ments or opposition groups for weather-related emergencies, increased intensity and left 1.9 million homeless.206 in Dhaka’s informal settlements political purposes and, as has the World Bank projects that and frequency of Even though forced migration in have been displaced by some been the case in Darfur for de- 143 million people just from sub- these instances results in tem- cades, can lead to armed conflict.195 Saharan Africa, South Asia, and natural disasters, porary internal displacement, the sort of environmental disaster.”

chapter II Latin America could be forced people are being disasters tend to have dispropor- Though development assistance from home due to drought, ris- tionately negative effects on the can address some elements of forcibly displaced ing sea levels, and other climate- poor, some of whom end up stay- these root causes, nonassis- from their homes at related emergencies by 2050 if ing for extended periods of time in 210,211 tance tools such as diplomacy, ming and an increased focus on past six decades. Dams no action is taken.199 unprecedented levels. the largely informal settlements to human intelligence, and securi- cyclically vulnerable populations once represented a pathway to which they initially escaped. ty cooperation can and should It is true that these displacements Our humanitarian could limit negative effects. In the broader economic development play a role, especially since per- often have shorter durations than community needs Every year in Bangladesh, hun- Bangladesh example, the chal- and energy sustainability; now secution and economic malfea- those involving, for example, more than increased dreds of thousands of people are lenge is in protecting riverine set- more than ever planning for sance—themselves drivers—can armed conflict. But climate- and funding to address forced to move from rural, largely tlements against events that vary the displacement of people and lead to armed conflict that, as environment-related forced mi- riverine regions, to Dhaka after in severity but are predictable in consideration of less-disruptive discussed above, would produce gration can equally destroy a city, this global crisis. flooding and monsoons destroy occurrence. Doing so could mini- energy alternatives should be even more forced migrants. village, or community in the same We need strong and homes and livelihoods. These mize the seasonal flow of millions given more emphasis. National, way that a violent conflict or war effective leaders people typically end up in the of people to already impover- government-led planning for de- ENVIRONMENTAL, can. Often these emergencies at all levels who city’s informal settlements that are ished informal settlements within velopment and human-induced CLIMATE, AND occur with less warning than con- home to approximately 40 percent Dhaka and encourage long-term forced migration could prevent HUMAN-INDUCED flict, with sudden flooding, fires, can develop and of Dhaka’s over 14 million resi- development and stability else- further informality and poverty. DISASTERS and earthquakes forcing people implement policies dents at any given time.207 Seventy where. At the same time, smart from home quickly. In the Lake that address the root percent of people living in Dhaka’s improvements—and where ap- FOOD INSECURITY The international community (and Chad basin, for example, a pop- informal settlements have been propriate, formalization—must be AND FAMINE indeed this report196) typically fo- ulation of over 3 million people causes of vulnerability displaced by some sort of environ- made to the informal settlements There are far fewer deaths from cuses on the almost 66 million across Chad, Niger, and Nigeria and fragility and mental disaster.208 Uncontrolled that are home to so many forced famine today than in the 1800s212; people forcibly displaced by con- have been exposed to insurgen- flooding destroys rice fields,migrants, ones that offer greater provide local actors however, there has been a trou- flict around the world. While these cy from Boko Haram, severe food washes away homes, and disrupts security and facilitate better ac- with the tools and bling recent increase in food in- are people who have escaped shortages, and climate shifts re- the fishing industry. In a country cess to income generation. The security that has, among other the horrors of war, prosecution, sulting in the almost complete resources to better where approximately 700 rivers Bangladeshi government, for ex- things, caused millions of people disappearance of the lake.200,201 prepare, respond, and and a coastline of 360 miles (580 ample, has planned for suburban and violence, they may not actu- to leave home.213 Global hun- The combination of these factors km) sustain much of the nation’s settlements for millions of people ally be the largest group of forced recover from future ger levels had been in decline has led to chronic regional forced economy, these environmental di- living in Dhaka’s informal settle- migrants. Since 2008, natural di- over the past decade, a trend migration for millions.202 disaster risks.” sasters disrupt development and ments, but these new communi- sasters and hazards have forced that reversed between 2015 and stability. Bangladesh already has a ties do not have access to transit over 26 million people annually 2016 when the number of under- There is currently no standard Ky Luu, Director, Initiative for complicated path to development critical for people to access work. on average from their homes, definition of—and thus little pro- nourished people rose from 777 197 Disaster and Fragility Resilience, given overpopulation, overcrowd- that is, over 250 million people. Such planning must be also million to 815 million globally. tection under international law George Washington University, ing and related urbanization is- In developing countries, already for—people forced from home managed to prevent develop- Malnutrition particularly affects Former Director, USAID Office of sues, air quality concerns, and an 47 challenging urban overcrowd- ment or human-induced dis- children, with 45 percent of glob- due to environmental or climate- U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance influx of 688,000 Rohingya from ing, resource constraints, poor 203 placement. While dams, for ex- al child mortality attributed to induced disasters. Much of the neighboring Myanmar between infrastructure, and a lack of pub- 214 current scientific research links August 2017 and January 2018.209 ample, provide vital clean and some form of malnutrition. It is lic services are all exacerbated changes in our climate to more renewable energy access to estimated that undernutrition ac- by these climate, environmen- frequent severe weather events204 Prevention of environmental and billions, their construction has counts for an economic loss of 11 tal, and human-induced disas- that can result in environmen- climate change-related disasters displaced between 40 and 80 percent of GDP in Africa and Asia ters. Between 2008 and 2014, tal disasters such as the 2010 is difficult but resilience program- million people globally over the alone every year.215 In 2017, over 20 million people are stuck en route or forcibly re- their already limited resources.230 across four countries—Nigeria, turned to places where they are Due to its geographic proximity Somalia, South Sudan, and Ye- vulnerable,”224 creating a vicious to several countries that produce 48 men—were exposed to the risk cycle: food insecurity remains a forced migrants for myriad rea- of famine or famine-like condi- significant root cause of forced sons, Djibouti has become a des- tions.216 Over 6 million people in migration at the same time that tination for Eritreans, Yemenis, Somalia alone needed food and forced migration—and the con- Ethiopians, and Somalians look- livelihoods assistance as of April flicts that create it—exacerbates ing for transit, shelter, or oppor- chapter II 2017 amid protracted violent con- food insecurity and famine. For- tunity. Djibouti has its own battles flict in many parts of the country.217 mer Secretary of State Rex Tiller- with its arid climate and frequent In the 1.5 years preceding August son partially acknowledged this drought-like conditions; introduc- 2017, over 800 thousand people vicious cycle in March 2018, saying forced migrants complicates 231 were forced from home due to ing that the “alarming levels of an already challenging situation. drought, famine, and/or conflict hunger in these areas [East, Cen- t is worth noting that all of the within cities such as Mogadishu tral, and West Africa] are largely famine-related deaths over or Baidoa and into neighboring man-made, as conflicts erupt and the last 150 years could have 218 225 Kenya. Even in Kenya, East Af- people flee their homes.” De- been prevented232 had there rica’s largest and most diversi- spite this acknowledgment, the Ibeen better (i.e., less “reckless- fied economy, over 75 percent of subsequent new U.S. foreign as- ly incompetent”233) government people make some part of their sistance allocations for famine policies and the willpower to levy living in rural areas, most of them were announced to be focused those policies, sophisticated ear- 219 in agriculture. Although Soma- on short-term relief priorities ly-warning systems, and the pro- li forced migrants have lived in such as emergency food, nu- fessional humanitarian aid sector 220 Kenya for decades, large and trition assistance, safe drinking currently in place to respond to sustained influxes of new Soma- water, and health programs de- these crises. FEWS NET (Famine lis have the potential to disrupt signed to prevent the spread of Early Warning Systems Network) food supplies, increase food disease.226 These are all import- is one example of an adaptable prices and decrease purchas- ant initiatives and strong signals and scalable early-warning sys- ing power, degrade agricultural to the broader humanitarian com- tem for food insecurity that could land, and spark conflict—though munity (the United States is the have significant impact if adapt- the direct relationship with food largest bilateral donor in all four ed for use in predicting forced security is complicated.221 Argu- famine-affected countries227); but migration crises.234 ably the worst humanitarian cri- these efforts to address symp- sis is currently in Yemen, where toms should not come at the proxy war among regional rivals, expense of long-term solutions SALMAN SAEED lack of humanitarian access, and to the underlying root causes of existing underdevelopment have food insecurity and famine that combined to create near-famine- force people from their homes like conditions.222 not the least of which are protracted conflict and violence. Nor Food insecurity can lead to great- should we discount the important er movement of desperate peo- role of diplomacy in addressing 49 ple; each percentage increase these root cause.228 in food insecurity contributes to a corresponding 2 percent rise Those forced from home at any in migration.223 “Many of the of the five levels of food inse- people most at risk of starvation curity229 often end up internally in the coming years may be mi- displaced in similarly struggling grants and asylum seekers who communities, in turn straining 50 Tesfay fled Eritrea in 1999. He now lives in Senegal, scraping by selling coffee in the street. chapter iii Stable work is not an option since he does not speak French and does not have any papers or official refugee designation. When asked what he did before arriving in Senegal in 2010, his answer was as simple as it was Over the course of 18 years, chilling: “I walked.” Tesfay walked over 10,000 miles. That’s longer than the distance between New York City and Sydney. He was forced into mandatory and limitless military conscription after his 11th year of schooling. Unwilling to serve in conditions akin to slavery indefinitely,235 he and thousands of fellow Eritreans fled. Today, Eritrean forced migrants make up the third-largest group of people crossing the Mediterranean into Europe.236 Tesfay tried to go back to Eritrea after his original escape but was quickly imprisoned. In 2001, he escaped again, this time never to return. He first made his way into Sudan but left there in 2003 due to religious persecution. THE Since then, he has walked, been trafficked, and journeyed by any means necessary to Libya—attempting to go to Eu- rope but ultimately fleeing violence and slave markets there— Niger, Chad, Central African Republic, The Gambia, and Guin- ea, ultimately finding relative safety in Senegal in 2016. 51

JOURNEY ut temporary safety does not not on the front pages or on the nightly mean stability for Tesfay and news, they are not part of the minority millions of others like him who living in refugee camps, and they will TRANSIT ROUTES 52 fall into a gray area of the glob- probably never make it to Europe or the BECOME DESTINATIONS Bal forced migration crisis. Tesfay is reg- United States. Unlike Tesfay, most forced istered as a foreigner but not a refugee, migrants that make it outside of their since he is part of a group that does not home country cross only one border and Tesfay’s treacherous journey—and the the locals. Not wanting to alienate vot- meet the requirements for official refu- typically settle close to their home even millions of similar journeys by forced ers, Bangladeshi politicians have talked 238 242 chapter iii gee status. He is a forced migrant with no within their new place of asylum. migrants from around the world—often primarily of repatriation, oblivious (at regular income, no governmental or in- occur entirely in developing countries least in public statements) to the real- No matter the length and duration, the ternational assistance, no family, no edu- that have been historically used as tran- ity that the Rohingya people are likely journey of a forced migrant is often char- 243 cation, and very little hope for the future. sit routes to safer and more-developed not going home anytime soon. Not acterized by danger, manipulation and countries. As the numbers and types acknowledging the fact that this “transit trafficking, and the promise of an uncer- Forced migrants like Tesfay fall into a of forced migrants increase, however, route” or point of first asylum might be- tain future. This journey is also one of the broad category of “mixed migrants” these “transit countries” are themselves come the ultimate destination for many least understood and studied elements for which international law has few an- becoming the destination and are play- hampers the ability of foreign assis- 237 of the global forced migration crisis. swers. He and the people like him are ing host for indefinite periods of time to tance agencies and the government it- an increasing number of people. self to play for the future.244 Bangladesh and others disproportionately sharing uch of the international at- the burden of the global forced migra- ery around the world as of Jan- tremely vulnerable, whether they tention and funding around tion crisis deserve recognition and sup- uary 2017, over 70 percent of have the right paperwork or not. forced migration focuses on port, especially political, economic, and GAPS AND whom are women or girls.239 An humanitarian response in foreign assistance support that allows estimated 600 to 800 thousand As shown in the Spotlight on SHADOWS Mtransit countries hosting refugees or ar- them to provide adequate assistance people are trafficked internation- National Security above, a lack eas within countries that have high lev- to new arrivals and, importantly, their ally every year.240 Whether peo- of legal recourse and protection els of IDPs. This is understandable as it own communities. The Smart Commu- Gaps in the international system ple initially leave home volun- drives forced migrants like Tesfay is of critical importance to provide imme- nities Coalition—cochaired by USAID mean that forced migrants like tary or whether they are forced into the shadows, risking their diate, often life-saving assistance. How- and Mastercard and including many Tesfay often pursue shadowy, il- from home, they often mix ranks lives and posing real security risks ever, this assistance should not come other public, private, and nonprofit licit, and dangerous paths to what during the journey, complicat- by strengthening illicit routes that at the expense of greater community partners245—is a promising example of they hope will be eventual safety. ing international responsibility are also used for weapons, drugs, resilience that dampens the potentially public-private support to address criti- Current global classifications and assignments and ultimately re- human trafficking, and other ne- negative effects of hosting thousands— cal technology and energy challenges responses for forced, mixed, and sponses. Refugees, for example, farious elements. When the Unit- if not millions—of forced migrants. faced by forced migrants and their host otherwise irregular migration do are a specific categorization with ed States and its allies do not communities. Similarly, efforts such as not fit modern realities. Most head- specific prescribed protections pay enough attention to people Host communities in Turkey, Uganda, the European Union’s Regional Trust lines and coverage of the global under international law. Migrants like Tesfay—or the human rights and Bangladesh are providing admira- Fund in Response to the Syrian Crisis forced migration crisis in the devel- typically do not enjoy the same abuses in Eritrea that drove him ble support to large influxes of people, (Madad Fund) that attempt to focus on legal protection because they are oped world focuses on the vast mi- from home—it forces them into especially given their own existing de- longer-term educational, economic, and nority of people who attempt trav- thought to have voluntarily left the shadows. The best resolution velopment challenges; but this support social needs of host communities de- el to Europe or the United States. and thus have personal respon- 246 to this problem may not neces- often comes at economic and political serve further study and support. With- Though eventual travel to those sibility for what happens to them costs. For example, Rohingya people— sarily be expanding the definition out these types of support, the influx of places may be the goal of many, an after leaving. The reality is that escaping violence in Rakhine State in of refugees, asylum seekers, etc. people could prove destabilizing to host overwhelming majority of forced many people fall somewhere in Myanmar—constitute at least one-third A positive first step might instead communities and countries. 53 migration journeys take place in between these clean categoriza- of the population of the Cox’s Bazaar be paying more attention to root the developing world; and many tions, in terms of both the actual area in Bangladesh as of early 2018.241 Bangladesh is not alone in the challenge causes of forced migration and of- of these journeys involve unimag- reasons for their initial departure While Bangladesh and people in Cox’s to balance domestic political consid- fering more avenues for improv- inable treachery and horror. and their ability to prove these Bazaar were initially welcoming, that erations with assistance to and accep- reasons. Regardless, a vast ma- ing the regularity and legality of welcome may be wearing thin, especial- tance of forced migrants, especially as An estimated 24.9 million peo- jority of forced, mixed, and oth- the journey, improving safety and ly since the Rohingya are often willing to transit countries such as Turkey, Ugan- ple are trapped in modern slav- erwise irregular migrants are ex- security for all in the process. work daily labor jobs for half the pay of da, and even Colombia come to terms A CRITICAL LESSON

ate number of forced migrants Education and are increasingly seen more as destinations rather than tran- 54 sit stops on a journey. For those Quality education is important for security,247 vision of education and right to work as cre- resilience,248 and future prosperity.249 Being ating more incentive to increase the length “An idle young countries, the United States could in school, however basic, is a protection of stay. In reality, forced migration scenarios person that revise the program to make sure mechanism in addition to an education tool. are becoming more protracted for external does not care industries that hired forced mi- With the average length of displacement reasons (mainly that they cannot safely re- grants and maintained minimum

chapter iii in the decades, too often children spend turn) and providing access to education and about his life labor standards were included. most of their childhoods in displacement. local labor markets—especially when pro- The EU could do the same with It is in everyone’s benefit to prevent the becomes a viding commensurate increased support to its program for developing coun- emergence of a “lost generation” of young host communities—will ease the short-term danger to tries. These agreements would people. Without education, young forced burden on local governments and commu- everyone migrants see no future and are thus more nities. The faster forced migrants can be need to come with pledges of in- susceptible to radicalization. Education is productive members of society, the better else’s lives.” creased production, investment also critical should displacement ever end off the host and displaced communities are. back into the business, and job (whether via return home or permanent Finding and hiring teachers from among the Lana Abu Hijleh, creation (some of which would go settlement elsewhere). Young people are displaced is one way of easing the burden to forced migrants). Jobs should the future engines of growth, renewal, and Country Director, on local education systems, many of which leadership; without educating these young Palestine, Global meet minimum, internationally already suffer from a shortage of quality people while they are displaced, we are Communities recognized decent work stan- teachers. These teachers can also serve as doing ourselves and them a disservice and dards. The typical industries in cultural mediators and a source of support putting us all at future risk. which forced migrants find them- for displaced children in schools. Access to quality education should be se- selves working—for example, gar- cured for forced migrants in countries of first Education should be closely linked to job the “Jordan compact” is widely stay closer to home or unable ment factories and agriculture— arrival immediately, whether in camps or as creation and local market development seen as one of the first attempts to journey onwards. The United have been known to employ child part of local education structures. Emerging both in practice and when discussing the to leverage the private sector to States and its allies should offer labor,254 unsafe exploitative work importance of it to forced migrants and the good practice is now focused on integration turn a humanitarian situation into a suite of incentives to hosting conditions,255 and wage theft.256 host community. Mentoring, language train- in local educational systems, with addition- one that benefits the host com- countries, including building on Healthy trade relationships such al assistance as needed. This contributes to ing, and cultural education are critical— the successes of the “Jordan building national infrastructure and capaci- done in such a way that appreciates and munity, the refugees themselves, as these benefit U.S. consumers addresses perceptions that refugees take and the economy. While the mod- compact” for new countries such in numerous ways and employ

ty that will remain if forced migrants return FAROUK BATICHE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES home or are resettled. Local governments jobs and economic opportunities away from el shows promise in that it unites as Turkey and Bangladesh. On people who otherwise might trav- should avoid the tendency to view the pro- local laborers and enterprises. donors, development actors, the latter, expanding existing el farther for work. For example, if host countries, and the private developing country trade prefer- a new trade arrangement creates sector behind a common goal,251 ences with the European Union new investments and that lead to with the more protracted nature cation and legal employment for the success of the “Jordan com- and the United States, increasing 100 new jobs, 15 of those would of today’s crises. Syrian refugees. Underneath the pact” has been mixed.252 opportunities for migrant work- go to forced migrants while the details of the Jordan compact ers outside Bangladesh, incor- other 85 would go to host com- Nevertheless, transit country Jordan, for example, has attempt- lies an important realization: that porating other regional partners munity members.257 governments in Jordan, Turkey, ed to turn the arrival of over 500 there would be no need for such (e.g., China) into a new compact,253 Bangladesh, and elsewhere The consequences of not under- thousand Syrian refugees into an agreement if large numbers and including capital investment should plan for longer timelines standing that transit routes are long-term economic growth via of Syrian refugees were going to in infrastructure from multilateral and address the issues of their becoming destinations them- a European Commission-negoti- journey onwards or return home development banks should all be ated “Jordan compact” process, own host communities in addi- selves—and not doing anything anytime soon. considered. 55 initiated in early 2016250 (not to tion to the new arrivals. As was about it—are grave. Without such be confused with the “global It is a positive development for the case with the “Jordan com- For example, the United States an understanding, the Rohingya compacts” discussed in Annex countries such as Jordan to real- pact,” this planning should build should explore expanding its people in Bangladesh, for ex- C). In return for preferential trade ize the protracted nature of dis- upon the understanding that present Generalized System of ample, face predictable flooding terms with the European Union, placed Syrians and for them to transit countries will increasingly Preferences (GSP) program to and typhoons without having grants, and loans, Jordan prom- search for productive solutions. become long-term destinations ensure it includes countries that had a chance to prepare.258 Even ised to improve access to edu- It is also worth mentioning that for forced migrants wanting to are supporting a disproportion- if this understanding exists, the failure to prepare communities The United States and its allies in there will have destabilizing impli- sistance and Protection of IDPs and forced migrants for their Europe should support communications for the broader region. (Kampala Convention)–2009270, future together could result in ties in places such as Bangladesh and some 25 governments have 266 56 strains that could—as was the with the transition to longer-term IDPs, like the 688,000 in CAR, adopted laws or policies based case with IDPs in Syria and could destination. The focus should are often among the most vul- on the Guiding Principles, with be the case with Syrians in Leb- be on equitable investment and nerable forced migrants because more on the way. anon and Rohingya people in partnerships, whether through in- they remain relatively close to Bangladesh—result in instability novative compact processes260 or the cause of their displacement The problem has been imple- (violence, armed conflict, envi- mentation at the national level, chapter iii and the forcible return of people via bilateral and multilateral as- to a country where persecution sistance that supports forced mi- ronmental disasters, etc.) and are which lags significantly behind is likely (a process commonly re- grants and their new communities. thus at greater risk of effects from the needs of IDPs and the stan- ferred to as refoulement).259 those and future root causes. They dards set forth, necessitating a are also often among the poorest campaign to mobilize civil soci- forced migrants, as evidenced by ety, the private sector, and local the fact that they do not have the and national government offices, financial resources to traverse with support from regional bod- long distances and borders. ies, international organizations, and donors to: THE PLIGHT OF Despite these challenges to supporting IDPs, 2018 presents an • Promote national dialogue on internal displacement, cov- THE INTERNALLY opportunity to refocus attention ering all phases of displacement (prevention, assistance/ on—and promote more compre- protection, and return/integration) as well as all causes of DISPLACED hensive compliance with—the forced migration, and identify the most effective solutions There are twice as many inter- when the state is unable, or re- “Internal displace- Guiding Principles on Internal in each society; nally displaced persons (IDPs) fuses, to assume its responsibili- Displacement, first adopted in • Encourage implementation of existing national laws and 263 267 in the world as refugees, despite ties towards its own population.” ment is the canary 1998. These were the first in- policies on internal displacement by publicizing positive ex- the latter being given significant- in the coal mine; the ternational standards for inter- amples and strengthening monitoring mechanisms in coop- Attempting to support IDPs can in- ly more global attention. There first sign of trouble nally displaced persons that set eration with regional and international organizations; is an undeniable relationship be- volve hostile country governments forth their rights and the respon- • Introduce national laws and policies in countries where tween internal and international and armed opposition groups that developing in a coun- sibilities of governments, inter- they do not yet exist to promote national responsibility and forced migration,261 yet neither are, themselves, usually on op- try. Tackling it must national organizations, and all compliance with the provisions in the Guiding Principles; the global compact on refugees posite sides of conflict that drove go beyond emergency other actors toward these pop- nor the global compact on migra- people from their homes in the response to encom- ulations. Although not a binding • Mobilize and empower IDPs to plan and act collectively; tion (see Annex C) significantly first place. In the Central African document, the Guiding Principles • Integrate displaced populations and host communities into address IDPs. On the one hand, Republic (CAR), for example, di- pass political, securi- have gained significant interna- development plans in affected countries to achieve solu- this attention discrepancy is un- verse factions block any meaning- ty and development tional standing, some even sug- tions for protracted cases and reduce numbers of IDPs; derstandable since refugees ful solutions to repeated conflicts gesting they might in time attain solutions.” • Encourage 100 percent ratification by states in Africa of the and other forced migrants cross that have forced almost 20 per- customary law. The World Sum- Kampala Convention and persuade those that have ratified borders and thus have greater cent of its entire population from mit Outcome document of 2005 Roberta Cohen, former Senior to report on their compliance with its provisions; chance to access international home, almost half of whom are acknowledges them as “an im- 264 Adviser to the Representative protections whereas IDPs are, by internally displaced. Because of portant international framework • Convene regional discussions and promote regional action of the UN Secretary-General on definition, still within their home these conflicts, half of the country for the protection of internally on behalf of IDPs with the Kampala Convention as a guide. Internally Displaced Persons countries. Countries wary of out- is now in need of humanitarian as- displaced persons.”268 Sever- 57 side intervention generally might sistance,265 a situation that has im- al regional instruments that are Internationally, there has been be less accepting of international portant humanitarian and security binding on states are based on a withdrawal from international protection for IDPs (and certainly implications. It is difficult to imag- the Guiding Principles (e.g., the IDP protection, despite almost collect and publish less credible ine stability anytime soon in CAR IDP Protocol for protection and daily occurrences of new and in- data on internal displacement),262 given these unprecedented levels assistance of IDPs of the Great creasingly desperate situations even though IDPs arguably fall of forced migration and easy to Lakes Pact–2006,269 and the Afri- in Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, into “a vacuum of sovereignty, imagine how ongoing instability can Union Convention for the As- and beyond. Often the most un- derrepresented and difficult to United Nations had a voluntary, ternal displacement—and forced challenges are specific to specific Even when addressing these support, IDPs also often face the part-time representative of the migration writ large—requires communities. People in Kampala and other urgent humanitarian most acute needs. In addition to secretary general (RSG) on IDPs high-level diplomacy that goes need housing just like in Gazian- needs, efforts must be made to 58 friends and allies of countries ex- from 1992 to 2010. The position beyond humanitarian and hu- tep, but existing issues in each pivot quickly to also providing periencing large amounts of in- helped elevate IDP issues and man rights actors. Indeed, there community complicate respons- commensurate assistance to ternal displacement, the United made notable strides in the pol- is an urgent need to engage with es depending on the context. host communities, ideally by and Nations has an important role to icy and normative arenas. How- development actors, the private Each instance of forced migration through local governments. De- play in pressuring governments ever, its voluntary, part-time na- sector, peacekeeping operations, deserves evidence-informed in- veloping-country national gov-

chapter iii to support—or at least allow ac- ture limited the scope and impact peace-building initiatives, and cli- terventions but significant tailor- ernments need to see the benefit cess to—IDPs. The United Na- of its activities. Its replacement mate-change mechanisms. An ing to context, potentially even at of allocating resources and com- tions, however, arguably does in 2010 by a special rappor- SRSG for IDPs, reporting direct- the sub-national level. petencies to local governments not give enough attention to teur (after the secretary-general ly to the secretary general, and that will help them respond bet- nother challenge is the IDPs and would benefit from the ended all voluntary RSGs) had with the status conveyed by that ter to crises and build resilien- position, would be well placed to type and availability of cy. Local governments are often appointment of a special repre- the effect of downgrading the work with high-level UN counter- resources. Oftentimes “caught between rocks and hard sentative to the secretary gen- position and creating a gap for 271,272 parts and governments to move donors, NGOs, and places,” facing the simultaneous eral (SRSG) for IDPs. This person IDPs. The special rapporteur does not have the same authori- forward a more comprehensive Aeven governments prioritize the challenges of being the front-line would mobilize support to end approach to IDPs than is current- needs of forced migrants without response to forced migration and protracted IDP situations, serve ty or involvement with the rest of ly possible. The 20th anniversary thinking about commensurate a serious lack of resources with as a primary interlocutor with the UN system as the RSG did, of the Guiding Principles on Inter- assistance to host communities. which to respond. Local govern- countries facing these problems is focused primarily on human rights, and has fewer resourc- nal Displacement—2018—would With limited foreign assistance ments should take responsibility on internal displacement issues, be a good time to renew focus on budgets, often acute humanitar- for everyone living under their and promote new ideas. es, all while also being voluntary and part-time. There is increas- this issue. ian needs of new arrivals, and jurisdiction, regardless of origin. There is some precedent for ing recognition that preventing, domestic political pressures to They should be bestowed the for- an SRSG position on IDPs. The responding to, and resolving in- support the displaced, it is under- mal competencies and be given standable that this prioritization sufficient resources to make this occurs. Of these acute needs, happen, with an emphasis on the protection of the most vulnerable, development of strong local lead- often the elderly and disabled, ers. To better support recent arriv- SUPPORTING HOST female heads of household, and als and their historic constituen- unaccompanied children, are the cies, local governments should: COMMUNITIES AND most important. This is not only the • “develop policies that help to change perceptions of refugees right ethical thing to do, it also cre- and IDPs so that they are seen as rights-holders, contributors NEW ARRIVALS ates a stronger foundation for the and partners in the development of towns and cities; One of the main reasons transit their resiliency and ability to pro- ziantep, Turkey. Support to only future. Women have been proven • take early action to resolve any emerging conflicts or tensions; country host communities are tect the vulnerable themselves. forced migrants often breeds to have positive impacts on eco- hesitant to accept and integrate Forced migrants and the under- resentment and social tensions,273 nomic growth and stability and • provide assistance to new arrivals, promote their self-reliance new arrivals is the perception that served in host communities often and gives evidence to the idea the children of today are the lead- and encourage incorporation of individuals and families into they draw resources away from have similar challenges, includ- that resources are being allocat- ers of tomorrow. Cultivating their the community; skills and capacities is essential other underserved populations ing access to adequate housing, ed away from host communities • ensure access to services and legal support (particularly with to their becoming self-supporting. and citizens within a country. This quality education and healthcare, to support new arrivals. regards to tenure and rental agreements); Skills training, income-generating sentiment, especially upon polit- enough food, access to clean 59 icization, enables proliferation of water and sanitation, and the The challenges in providing com- activities, and credit, where pos- • provide information on rights, entitlements and available the idea that serving new arrivals ability to earn a living. While the mensurate services to vulnerable sible, will allow women to meet services in ways that are accessible to people from different 274 and serving host communities specifics may change dependent forced migrants and their host day-to-day subsistence needs, backgrounds and who speak different language;” is mutually exclusive. The best on context, these are univer- communities primarily relate to acquire income and assets, avoid • encourage national governments—with the assistance of in- way to counter this sentiment is sal needs between populations local adaptation and limited or prostitution (also for their daugh- ternational actors if necessary—to allocate greater shares of to provide better support to host whether a forced migrant transits restricted resources. While basic ters), and improve their chances tax revenue and formal competencies to the local level to communities, ideally bolstering through Dakar, Senegal, or Ga- needs are the same world over, for economic self-sufficiency. address these issues. es, informal businesses, global and regional importantly, in the creation of new and expand- investors and financiers, and the broader entre- ed markets for products and services. Under- “The most important role that businesses preneurial ecosystem. An “all hands-on deck” standing that stability is likely the goal in most can play is facilitating and supporting the SPOTLIGHT ON approach—including private-sector actors (often forced migration contexts, significant efforts are economic integration of refugees who may in the lead), public and private foundations, and required to further enable these markets and to THE be displaced for a generation. And they can public institutions (national, multilateral, glob- de-risk investments through guarantees or oth- 60 al)—must be used to mobilize and unleash the er forms of innovative finance. This is a critical PRIVATE do this most effectively when they go beyond power of the sector that (alone or more often in role that the U.S. government could play, poten- traditional philanthropy, and engage refugees combination) is often best positioned to confront tially through the proposed U.S. International SECTOR as economically productive employees, key root causes of the forced migration crisis.283 Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) using new or existing authorities and programs.284 The Broadly speaking all of these actors, but in par- entrepreneurs, and customers.” relevant elements of the BUILD Act of 2018 and chapter iii ticular national governments whose task it is to its creation of a U.S. IDFC should be support- correct market failures, must make every effort Gideon Maltz, Executive Director, Tent Foundation ed and encouraged to specifically target areas to unleash the truly transformative potential of experiencing destabilizing levels of forced mi- the private sector. However, it is important to gration in coordination with the private sector. understand that, while the private sector can If the BUILD Act fails to pass Congress with the provide immense and often unique benefits and relevant mandates to do so, the United States An increasing proportion of devel- potential roles of multinational corpo- resources, it will require responsible engage- should consider allocating $300 million to US- oped-country foreign assistance bud- rations (MNCs) and the recognition of ment by the various private-sector actors to suc- AID for an enterprise fund or funds specifically gets is being spent on new arrivals in early, positive examples being set by cessfully tackle economic, cultural, and political targeting emerging market, early-stage enter- their countries (see Fact 5 above) at companies such as Mastercard, IKEA, challenges rather than to make things worse. prise and SME investments in areas experienc- precisely the time when protracted and Airbnb.278 MNCs have tremendous For example, a responsible private-sector actor ing high levels of forced migration.285 forced migration is becoming the new power to assist forced migrants in ways (whether a business operator or investor) must normal (see Fact 2 above) and the scale that benefit vulnerable people and the balance the need for time-bound, bottom-line hile stability and economic growth and impact of displacement in origin, bottom line. Among other things, this growth with the need to protect workers’ rights in developing countries would re- transit, and new home countries is un- power is exercised in enacting hiring and access to employment, create safe working sult in opportunities for U.S.-based precedented. As a result, funding for preferences and choosing suppliers conditions, and utilize fair recruiting practic- and other MNCs to access new short-term emergency relief and forced that make similar commitments to es. Responsible actors also support equitable Wmarkets, the arrival of forced migrants in devel- migration-focused foreign assistance support forced migrants and their host access to business ownership, licensing, and oped countries can also increase the availabil- that was previously tight is now, at best, communities. Starbucks has made a capital while contributing to the growth of local ity of labor, which many employers from Stock- dangerously thin. global commitment to hire 10,000 refu- SMEs for forced migrants and host community holm to Dallas desperately need.286 Evidence gees by 2022, giving them hundreds of members. In developed markets, a combination indicates the relevance of bottom-line-driven This was made clear at the first ever millions of dollars in collective earning of businesses’ increasingly enlightened self-in- reasons to hire forced migrants in addition to World Humanitarian Summit convened terest and effective government regulations potential and badly needed additional the social impact, reputational benefits, and in 2016 in Istanbul, Turkey, by the UN 279 280 have improved the private sector’s involvement benefits. If done responsibly, the stronger brand loyalty that such hiring might secretary general to “generate commit- in and compliance with laws surrounding these Turkish garment industry could have a also generate.287 Many employers in Sweden, ments to reduce suffering and deliver and other responsible “best work” practices. significant and quick impact on forced the United States, and beyond have increased better for people around the globe.”275 migrant employment. Ultimately, pri- The same must be true of actions and invest- hiring of forced migrants not for corporate so- While the summit produced a few tan- vate-sector actors can make “unique ments in developing countries that may not cial responsibility reasons, but because they gible results dealing with urgent prior- and valuable contributions to refugee have the laws or institutions to ensure respon- are typically more reliable and stay longer at ities (e.g., mobilizing new humanitarian response by engaging refugees not as sible private-sector engagement. If business the company, have comparatively higher lev- donors, ensuring better and broader aid recipients, but as employees, pro- and finance fail to engage responsibly, they risk els of education, and have fewer complaints in compliance with the 1951 Refugee Con- ducers, investees, and customers.”281 making things worse. general about the workplace.288 These workers vention, and getting countries to com- In doing so, these actors gain not just 276 Why should the private sector care about forced may bring a high level of “foreign” language mit to upholding humanitarian law), it reputational benefits and build brand 61 migration? Private-sector actors stand to benefit skills—a valuable long-term asset—while many also recognized the vital, often unique loyalty, but they also see real impacts 277 greatly from stability and economic growth in often arrive with lower levels of “domestic” roles the private sector can and must on their bottom line.282 language skills that may create short-term chal- play in preventing and responding to places affected by forced migration and, in fact, At the same time, there has been com- the forced migration crisis. often cannot and will not operate or invest with- lenges. A 2017 study showed that Colombian paratively less attention given to the out reasonably stable current or expected fu- IDPs had “sizable positive effects” on produc- Since the 2016 Summit, much of the roles of local small- and medium-sized ture conditions. These benefits can be realized tion margins and on “blue-collar employment of private-sector focus has been on the enterprises (SMEs), regional enterpris- in short- and long-term profits and, often more formal firms.”289 provide not only access to jobs at their own programs that offer services (e.g., skills training companies, but skills and language training, and transportation) to forced migrants should be including certification.294 Efforts to introduce made commensurately to host communities. online freelance programs (e.g., coding) as via- Additionally, future bilateral and multilateral ef- ble income-generation opportunities should be forts should prioritize identifying and utilizing studied and, where appropriate, adopted; re- existing skills that forced migrants bring with latedly, considerable attention should be given 62 them. Whether through hiring them for service to prevalent online connectivity issues in forced provision or (ideally) by creating mechanisms migration contexts. The potential of the “gig” through which those with skills can integrate and “sharing” economies (e.g., Lyft and Airbnb) into the private sector, skills identification and should be explored further to better understand matching is important. It is important to build how freedom to work can be granted to forced chapter iii skills that are relevant to the relevant labor migrants while filling market gaps. A clear target market needs.296 Skill-building efforts should here is allowing forced migrants legal access be grounded in careful study of demand, ideally to the formal economy (i.e., a genuine “right to driven by—or at least in cooperation with—the work”); when forced migrants do not have such relevant private-sector actors.297 rights, they have greater incentive to operate in the shadows of society, are more susceptible to While the efforts mentioned above are import- nefarious activities and paying little or nothing ant and are all “pieces of the puzzle,” a funda- in taxes on earned income. “The evidence over- mental question of how to engage at scale is of- whelmingly suggests that [providing the right to ten a question of matching private-sector actors work] is the simplest way to combat the depen- (including and perhaps especially with emerg- dency, idleness, and poverty, which foster the ing entrepreneurs) with the financing that they alienation that leads to radicalization.”295 At the need at every level. However, while some SMEs same time, forced migrants should not be forced in Jordan, for example, face capital constraints, into the formal economy against their will. In their challenges also include much more funda- hese benefits are felt even be- be enterprise-led, enterprise-supported, How can the private sector engage in many developing countries, the informal econo- mental issues of expensive electricity, stifling yond the firm level, with anoth- and enterprise-benefiting to be success- ways that address the forced migration my is where most jobs are created and are those regulations, and logistical challenges in export- er recent study showing that ful, long lasting, and scalable or replica- crisis while also benefiting the bottom the most adaptable to shocks such as the influx ing. Ultimately every business is different, and the investment by governments ble. To make this happen, private-sector line? In the years since the 2016 Is- of forced migrants. Over time focus should shift enterprises will make their own decisions on Tof “one euro in refugee assistance can actors—from investors to multinational tanbul Summit, private-sector actors to better working conditions, expanded social, how to address challenges. In many settings, yield nearly two euros in economic ben- corporations to small businesses—will are increasingly understanding why it and where possible broader participation in the the most productive way to unleash the power efits within five years.”290 Yet another have to be informed, enabled, incentiv- benefits them to be involved in creat- formal economy. of the private sector is to understand and fill the study showed that “Jordan’s economic ized, and supported. If the issue is framed ing, developing, and financing durable strategic gaps in financing that exist in almost institutions substantially improved in Financial inclusion of forced migrants is also only as “corporate kindness,” private- solutions to the forced migration crisis. all forced migration contexts today. This connec- the decade after the [Kuwaiti Palestin- important so that employees and business own- sector actors are less likely to take the Although there are only a few examples tion between SMEs and capital is challenging ian] refugees arrived.”291 ers can more easily and seamlessly manage initiative seriously than if forced migrants of impactful private-sector initiatives to and deserving of further study. and earn money digitally. Such support efforts While there are clear positive reasons are perceived to add tangible value. date, as companies move from corpo- (often working with public-sector providers to One way to approach how private-sector investors for enterprise and investment engage- rate social responsibility (CSR) to core Whether working to keep people at home fill technical and market access gaps) can help can and should engage is to understand and fill ment, there are grave consequences to business operations to engage—from or creating better lives in new home 292 SMEs move toward broader inclusive economic the strategic gaps between the existing deal read- not being part of a productive solution. what IKEA has done in Jordan to the countries, governments should create— growth that creates jobs in origin countries as iness, growth of the deal pipeline, and capitaliza- Increasing global forced migration has approach of a technology startup in San with the technical and financial support 293 well as for forced migrants and long-standing tion.298 In relative and practical terms, deployed the potential to economically, socially, Diego —it is important and timely to of international donors and institutions— members of the host community. Support should capital to confront forced migration barely exists, and politically destabilize countries and consider not only why, but how the pri- the good governance, legal, and regu- be given to other private-sector actors—particu- no matter the type of country (origin, transit, or entire regions and thereby put existing vate sector can best engage. 63 latory frameworks that allow forced mi- larly SMEs—that may have viable business oper- destination), source of capital (multinational cor- operations and investments at risk while grants the right to employment, training, As shown above, forced migrants are ations but often lack access to necessary distri- limiting opportunities for future expan- poration, foundation, pension fund, impact inves- and education. Governments should also often considered reliable employees bution channels, specific know-how, networks, sion of businesses and capital utilization. tor, capital markets investor, government, or mul- facilitate (or at least not get in the way who are net contributors to the econ- or other appropriate resources—whether finan- tilateral), size of target enterprise (large, medium, Ultimately, economic development-relat- of) access to finance and broadly create omy over time, especially when given cial or otherwise—to compete for and capture small, micro), instrument (equity, debt, etc.), or ed strategies aimed at the root causes and a supportive climate for investment and the right to work both in policy and in supply chain contracts or to scale. As with most purpose (risk reduction and resiliency, new prod- EROL K. YAYBOKE/CSIS negative results of forced migration must supply-chain expansion for SMEs. practice. Private-sector actors should support efforts in forced migration contexts, ucts and services, technology deployment, etc.). Forced migrants themselves have been While platforms to connect investors to other forced migrants. Similarly, im- “...We must shown to create thriving businesses deals do exist, many are either small- portant are the SMEs created by forced that boost employment.299 For example, scale platforms that presume existing migrants that, while each one is not think big a recent report by the Syrian Economic operational capacity, digital apps to necessarily employing thousands, con- while not Forum and Building Markets showed match capital with investments,304 or tribute to their communities through letting the that, in addition to first-time business grand designs to administer multibil- taxes, local philanthropy, and the provision of goods and services that might perfect (e.g., 64 owners, many experienced Syrian en- lion-dollar centrally administered in- trepreneurs are expanding businesses vestment funds. Currently, most of the not otherwise be available. In countless immediate in neighboring countries such as Turkey, existing available investment opportu- interviews with forced migrant entre- and massive hiring fellow forced migrants and com- nities are under $5 million, offer con- preneurs, the opportunity to build a vi- investment) munity members alike.300 Nevertheless, cessionary financial returns (at best), able business was enough for them to there is significant skepticism in the fi- and entail a level of risk beyond the ap- want to stay and build new homes and be the enemy chapter iii nancial world that there are long enough petite of typical commercial investors. productive lives in their new countries; of the good.” and wide enough pipelines of financial Some of the deals can only be capital- those that continued their journeys (for- return-ready enterprises within markets ized by matching them with appropriate mally or informally) did so only when that can accurately be risk-reward evalu- angel or seed investment or in some there were direct impediments to op- 305 ated in these contexts. Since early 2017, cases early-stage philanthropic fund- portunity, dignity, and self-reliance. more than $1 billion has been pledged to ing. Some will require derisking through uilding out a truly transforma- elsewhere—are not well understood. with the Alight Fund, the USA for UN- support refugee entrepreneurs or busi- guarantees or regulatory remediation. 308 tive, coherent, and strategic Though still in the early stages, several HCR, and others to launch the World nesses employing forced migrants and Almost all of them will require structur- system to bridge these gaps groups—including the Tent Foundation, Refugee Fund (WRF), a microfinance supporting the communities in which ing support and technical assistance to will require significant effort World Economic Forum, Ascend Fund, matchmaking platform in June 2017, 301,302 they live. Despite the growing com- meet the risk, return, and impact expec- Bacross the private and public sectors. Global Development Incubator, and connecting lenders to low-income en- mitted private capital pool to the sector, tations of commercial investors. This This will require (1) a greater under- Alight Fund—are all working to bridge trepreneurs around the world. Within 24 only a handful of deals have been capi- support cannot be performed by a plat- standing of relevant entrepreneurial this gap in context-specific ways. These hours of its initial launch, the fund raised talized or funded.303 form. It requires an intermediary who ecosystems and the structures, capac- and other efforts should be closely stud- over $500,000 for over 500 refugee understands both the language and ied for lessons on how available capital 309 In reality, such enterprises exist and are ities, and motivations that will shape entrepreneurs. For many early-stage practice of investment and the reality of (over $1 billion in pledges) can turn into in need of capital, though many concur- the system’s behavior and (2) the entrepreneurs, particularly in frontier forced migration markets and contexts. actual investments. rently face the noncapital challenges availability of public-sector assets that or post-conflict markets, the first path- What is needed are investment bankers support, drive, or make possible ex- mentioned above. Understanding why We need to start somewhere with the way to business ownership is through for forced migration solutions instead of panded international and regional pri- there are gaps between existing deal goal of achieving scale. Though the micro enterprise. Until the launch of the yet another digital exchange for ready- vate-sector involvement. Efforts must readiness, growth of the deal pipe- question of how best to engage de- WRF, most financial service providers for-market deals. What is needed is a build on the growing numbers and line, and capitalization is of strategic serves innovative thinking and further refused to serve refugees due to per- coherent and strategic system that to- strengthened capacities of local pri- importance to addressing how private- study, we must think big while not let- ceptions that their loans were too risky, day does not exist. vate sectors via training, risk capital, DAVID SILVERMAN/GETTY IMAGES sector actors can best engage. The goal ting the perfect (e.g., immediate and that they posed a flight risk, and the fact and assistance to host governments should be to create a clear pathway for It is critical to understand and support massive investment) be the enemy of they often have no credit history in their for legislation and regulation drafting investment, one that deploys private entrepreneurial ecosystems if we are the good (i.e., we have to start some- new countries. The success of the WRF and contract compliance. capital at the scope and scale demand- to understand how to build deal pipe- where). Capital, whether private or pub- demonstrates the significant interest in ed by the scope and scale of the forced lines and capitalize them. The entre- Markets, policy, finance, human capital, lic, when taking on the challenging task the United States for providing direct migration crisis. Deal pipelines are preneurial spirit of countless forced mi- market culture, and support structures of building entrepreneurial ecosystems capital to refugee businesses. Early weakest where the needs are greatest, grants—many of whom fought through that foster environments in which en- in frontier markets, should itself act WRF data on repayments also indicates so focus must be placed on the most unimaginable horrors to even get to trepreneurs are empowered to innovate entrepreneurially. These actors should that displaced entrepreneurs—regard- critical—and most protracted—forced a place where they could even think and succeed306 need to be understood execute with existing resources where less of context—make for good lending migration scenarios. The pathway for about rebuilding their lives and creating and adapted to forced migration con- possible, learn, iterate, and continue customers on par with host entrepre- investment in these areas requires a new businesses—is evident and should executing. Understanding context- texts. Especially in the areas that so often neurs and, in some cases, are less risky. 65 coherent system of sourcing and struc- be seen as an opportunity for broad- face forced migration-related challeng- specific entrepreneurial ecosystems, Efforts like these can have profound turing deals and matching investment er economic growth. With adequate es, markets tend to be underdeveloped, there must be new initiatives to devel- benefits for improving the self-reliance opportunities to the appropriate class access to finance and other relevant policy environments often impede in- op new investment pipelines learning of forced migrants, increase market vi- of investor. Deals currently in the pipe- support, many forced migrants have vestment as opposed to encouraging it, from successful approaches to SME ex- ability for U.S. investors or operators, 307 line rarely match that which interested gone on to create important business- and “business clusters” —often cred- pansion that exist in other challenging and increase stability in fragile states. investors are seeking; they are typically es that employ innumerable Americans ited with creating more entrepreneurial environments. For example, U.S. crowd- too small and too risky. and Europeans in addition to so many and competitive business environments funding organization Kiva partnered Hayyan, his wife, and two small children lived in a small apartment in Irbid, Jor- Hayyan walked dan, for four years when they received the equivalent of 66 Washington D.C. to approval to move to the United States. Philadelphia through They had owned a shoe factory just disputed territory. outside Damascus, selling their goods

chapter iv as far away as Algeria. When Syria de- scended into chaos in 2011, they initially made the decision to stay, hoping that the violence would end and they could

Zaatari get back to their once-prosperous busi- Refugee ness. Hayyan did not know—or care— Camp whether it was the Assad regime, the Russians, the United States, armed opposition groups, or ISIS that pierced the windows and walls of their family home with bullets practically every night. It did not matter as long as it came to an end. When a missile finally destroyed part of ARRIVAL the factory and their home, injuring him in the process, the decision to leave was IN A no longer a decision at all.

After a harrowing journey involving 150 kilometers of walking by night and NEW crawling by day, they finally reached a border crossing that was subse- quently closed, stranding an estimated 60,000 of his fellow Syrians in a “no 67 man’s land.”310 Once on the Jordanian side, Hayyan and his family promptly HOME registered as refugees with UNHCR, a process that involved extensive interviews, iris scans, and other security checks. Finding temporary refuge in the poor border town of Irbid and having no hope of returning to a life now destroyed, they depleted their life savings to pay for rent while waiting for news on resettlement. The initial good news came at the licenses and are taking English perfect, but is worth understand- beginning of November 2016; classes in the evenings. In No- ing and, where appropriate, fix- RESETTLEMENT Hayyan and his family would be vember, they celebrated Thanks- ing. For the lucky few who do get 68 able to join his sister in California. giving with their new neighbors. resettled, arrival in a new home Hayyan is one of the lucky few to be countries (e.g., Japan, Russia, and China) “Less than A process meant to take “up to presents challenges for the per- given a second chance for a future. Less largely reject refugees and other forced two years” had taken four, but Hayyan considers himself to be son, their family, and the host than 1 percent of refugees are resettled and irregular migrants that could help 1 percent 317 Hayyan did not care. Nervous but very lucky, a sentiment backed community; these challenges are annually. The United States has histor- address demographic and economic of refugees relieved, he and his family finally up by evidence. Less than 1 per- also worth understanding, espe- ically led the world in refugee resettle- challenges they face. The United States 318 are resettled chapter iv got on a plane in October 2017. cent of all refugees are ever re- cially in the context of cities that ment, accepting 78,761 people in 2016; itself could certainly absorb more refu- annually.” He now works in an electronics settled, a number that is even have emerged as the new lead- even dropping to 24,559 in 2017, the gees and other forced migrants from an manufacturing plant. His children smaller for other types of forced ers in effective resettlement, in- United States was still the global leader economic perspective, and many local 319 are in school. They live in a small migrants (e.g., IDPs).311 The ex- tegration, and harmonization of in resettlement. It is unlikely that re- officials and business leaders in Detroit, house in a suburb of Oakland. tremely thorough vetting process forced migrants. settlement alone will solve the plight of San Diego, and Dallas have the capaci- Hayyan and his wife have drivers’ that Hayyan went through is not over 22 million refugees and many more ty to receive greater numbers of forced forced migrants; however, the actions migrants. These leaders understand the the United States and its allies take send social and economic benefits to wel- powerful messages to global populations coming them321 and are worried about people currently in Bangladesh; about global leadership, one that elicits the loss of expertise and services at they have been persecuted for discomfort and security concerns among RETURN long-standing agencies that could result decades and, after entire villages some, but otherwise comes with compar- from fewer resettlements. These lead- were burned, have no guarantees atively little – if any – long-term strains on HOME ers understand that higher resettlement of safety if they were to return to domestic resources (see Spotlight on the 315 rates in their cities has significant social Myanmar. In the Democratic Re- Private Sector). “Safety and security Before talking about resettle- public of the Congo, where there and economic benefits. are always prerequisites ment and integration in a third are more than 4 million IDPs, the Forty-nine of 50 U.S. states accepted country, it is worth acknowledg- majority are seen as enemies of refugees in 2017 while only 34 countries 320 for return; with the pro- ing that, if one talks to a forced the state as families of rebels and around the world did the same. Some tracted nature of conflicts migrant—like Rebekah, Bassima, thus have little incentive to return Tesfay, or Hayyan—soon after dis- to their original homes.316 and situations of political placement, their goal will almost instability today, returning inevitably be to return home as Safety and security are always 4 is often infeasible.” soon as possible. Almost half of all prerequisites for return; with the protracted nature of conflicts and 6 Syrians in Turkey live near the Syri- 3 an border, holding onto hope of re- situations of political instability TOP RESETTLEMENT 312 today, returning is often infeasi- 8 turn. Even months into the most 5 STATES IN THE recent Rohingya crisis of late 2017, ble. Many returnees will find their homes and home communities 1 UNITED STATES officials in Bangladesh refused to 9 talk about much more than when destroyed or fundamentally dif- 7 (2017) the Rohingya people would return ferent; in this way, even return to 10 something that should be familiar to Myanmar; even though very 2 1 California 6 Michigan few—if any—Rohingya would be could feel new. With return diffi- 2 Texas 7 Arizona willing to return voluntarily.313 cult or out of the question, many find that a stop on the journey 3 New York 8 Pennsylvania 69 Returning home is rarely easy and becomes a permanent home; for 4 Washington 9 North Carolina often dangerous, as is the case a very few others, dreams of re- 5 Ohio 10 Georgia for the Rohingya people and as settlement become realities. We was the case for Tesfay upon his must realize that protracted dis- first return to, and subsequent placement, resettlement, and in- graphic source 314 imprisonment in, Eritrea. The tegration—that is, not just talk of UNHCR, “Resettlement in the United States,” http://www. same will be true for the Rohingya return—are the new normal. unhcr.org/en-us/resettlement-in-the-united-states.html. REFUGEE SCREENING

applicant’s data into the State Department’s Worldwide Refu- Extremely gee Admission Processing System (WRAPS). If the applicant is eligible for resettlement, the RSC transmits all the data to U.S. 70 national security agencies including the National Counterter- Thorough Vetting rorism Center, FBI, Department of Homeland Security, Depart- ment of Defense, or State Department for further screening.

Every country has a sovereign right and duty to protect its bor- For those who are not disqualified during that process, their ders and ensure that those attempting to enter the country do screenings from the different agencies are then sent to the not have bad intentions. Part of that right is the obligation to State Department and DHS. Those containing “national secu- chapter iv vet potential arrivals—including refugees and other forced mi- rity indicators” are given additional scrutiny, including refer- grants—extremely well. Though the system should not be con- ral to the DHS “fraud detection unit.” DHS officers interview sidered perfect, the United States does have extremely thor- the applicants and collect biometric data to confirm the in- ough vetting procedures that are worth understanding better. formation collected by RSCs. If any new information arises, the applicant will be interviewed again and that data will be Refugees are vetted more closely than any other type of per- entered in the WRAPS system.324 The next step is to screen son entering the United States via a process that takes, on fingerprints against the FBI, DHS, and DoD databases, which average, 18 to 24 months and involves at least 20 stages of are later reviewed by DHS. Only after successfully completing 322 screening. In almost all cases, refugees are referred by UN- these steps is the applicant eligible to take a cultural-orienta- HCR for U.S. resettlement after a rigorous screening process tion class and receive a thorough medical examination. of its own that involves fulfillment of at least one specific vulnerability category, in-person interviews, background checks, Everything described above happens before a candidate for and collection and analysis of biographical and biometric resettlement sets foot in the United States. At their point of en- (often iris and face scans and fingerprints) data.323 Once re- try, they are subject to additional screening from U.S. Customs ferred by UNHCR, the application is processed by one of the and Border Protection and the Transportation Security Admin- nine Resettlement Support Centers (RSC), funded and man- istration’s Secure Flight Program. If there are no security risk aged by the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Population, throughout all the stages, the refugee is free to settle in the Refugees, and Migration (PRM). The RSC collects biographic United States and is greeted upon arrival by representatives information, conducts an in-depth interview, and enters all the from resettlement agencies. INTEGRATION Integration327 into a new community is Germany and Sweden use a specified After such an extremely thorough vet- ment agencies are responsible for pro- difficult in the best of circumstances distribution formula to determine where ting process (see text box), resettled viding food, shelter, medical care, and and can be especially challenging for to resettle refugees, similar to the place- refugees are expected to begin their other services. After that, refugees are JENS SCHLUETER/GETTY IMAGES forced migrants after having endured ment process in the United States.328 new lives in the United States with only expected to be self-sufficient or—if re- years of hardship and waiting. For reset- Sweden has taken a unique and major 90 days of assistance from resettlement settlement is done effectively—in plac- tled refugees, there may be official pro- step by allowing permanent resettle- agencies. These nonprofit agencies de- es where communities can continue cesses that involve assistance getting a ment of Syrian refugees due to the un- termine where to allocate refugee fami- to provide support until they are fully lies on a case-by-case basis, though the job, going to the doctor, learning a new likelihood of them returning to Syria any- self-sufficient. 329 families are more likely to be settled in language, and getting children in school. time soon. U.S. resettlement agencies a place where they have friends, fami- In addition to vetting and the overall re- For other forced migrants—especially do a credible job resettling refugees, ly, or personal connections.325 Resettle- settlement figures, policymakers should those unable to journey past first coun- but their processes could be improved ment agencies also consider cultural focus on what happens to forced mi- tries of asylum—the process and time- thus increasing the changes of quick and religious dynamics, employment grants upon arrival. They should learn lines for integration are ill defined at best. and successful integration. The United opportunities, availability of affordable from cities that are the new leaders in Integration can take generations; first ar- States and its allies should explore the 71 housing, and whether communities are effective integration, despite the limited rivals may never learn the language of creation of a global matching system for typically welcoming to refugees. For ex- timeline of available federal assistance. their new community, whereas their chil- forced migrants whereby the displaced ample, faith leaders have regularly been Ensuring that refugees have opportuni- dren and children’s children know little would submit their skills and country champions of refugee resettlement, of- ties to thrive and are in the proper en- other than their adopted homes. Effec- preferences and countries would submit ten sponsoring and helping integrate vironments that reward hard work and tively addressing challenges of integra- their skills preferences. The matching refugees of all faiths into the commu- contributions to society is essential for tion have economic, political, social, and system would then adjudicate the best nity.326 For those first 90 days resettle- integration success. national security implications. matches based on these stated preferences,330 taking care to account related data on forced migrants ers in the community in need. rates (unacceptable at any lev- for specific vulnerability criteria will help in future allocation. The New arrivals should be given am- el) have actually dropped since (e.g., age and disability status). United States, UNHCR, and oth- ple opportunity to learn the local 2010, well before the recent in- 72 ers collect “occupation,” but do language, participate in local cul- flux of forced migrants in 2015.337 esearchers from the Im- not include assessments of rele- tural events (e.g., Hayyan and his Similarly, the Turkish Interior migration Policy Lab at vant skills of forced migrants to family’s celebration of Thanks- Ministry has rejected claims that Stanford University are be resettled. These data should giving with their new neighbors crime had increased among and already investigating a be joined with post-arrival as- in Oakland), and formally and by Syrian refugees.338 data-driven algorithm that could chapter iv R sessments that, together, feed legally earn a living. The Ar- match refugees to host cities, Many of these tensions are relat- into matching algorithms. Once ab-American Chaldean Council “Ask a forced migrant rather than relying on the usual ed to underlying economic and matches are made, skill-refresh- (ACC) in Detroit is an excellent case-by-case matching systems.331 security fears (real or imagined) at- anywhere in the world ing or -building efforts before ar- example of an organization that The model uses skill sets, ethnic tributed to the arrival of new peo- what she wants and, rival should correspond to desti- serves poor people and those background, age, and other char- ple, thus making successful inte- nation-appropriate needs. in need from all communities.334 more often than not, acteristics to decide where to best gration all the more important. In ACC doctors, for example, serve place refugees based on desired Another important part of integra- addition to tensions in host com- she will tell you that she forced migrants together with social and economic outcomes. tion should also begin well before munities, a consequence of not ef- wants to be able to pro- people originally from Detroit. This type of skills-and-interest arrival. New arrivals need to have fectively integrating new arrivals This support for the host com- vide for her family (i.e., matching model could increase realistic—and accurate—expec- is that, over time, disenfranchised munity in addition to the forced work) and send her social cohesion and employment tations of the challenges that lay and marginalized second- or rates of refugees (and eventually ahead. Most want to work and to migrant is perhaps the most im- third-generation forced or irreg- children to school.” other forced migrants) at very lit- put their children in schools, but portant quality of successful, and ular migrants may pose greater tle taxpayer cost.332 To make such they should be familiarized with peaceful, integration. Organi- risks to safety and security. While a system effective in the United life in the United States before zations that do this particularly not the only path, rejection and States, officials should consider they arrive. If life in the United well, for example, ACC, deserve marginalization of young people integrating such data-based al- States does not live up to expec- greater attention and support. in particular can lead to radical- 339 gorithms into allocation models tations, new arrivals might revert Policymakers in the United ization and religious extremism. and, importantly, extending data to hopelessness. Part of making States and other resettlement While blocking new people from collection on resettled refugees sure this doesn’t happen is set- and hosting countries are cur- entry or marginalizing new arriv- beyond the initial 90-day period. ting expectations effectively and rently dealing with rising nationals might win votes in elections, it These data would then be used accurately. The responsibility you that she wants to be able to alism and efforts to separate does little to improve safety and to further calibrate and improve for this cultural preparation of- security (and likely has opposite people rather than integrate provide for her family (i.e., work) the model. Medium-sized cities ten falls to NGOs working with effects); whereas improving inte- them together effectively. Ger- and send her children to school. such as Indianapolis, Louisville, refugees and other forced migration likely does improve safety many and Sweden have yet to Recent arrivals face challenges in or Troy, Michigan, are often great grants preparing to arrive in the and security over time. halt welcoming refugee policies,335 several areas that make getting matches for resettlement be- United States or Europe. These but are increasingly dealing with to work difficult: transportation, cause of the combination of low efforts should be supported and olicy efforts should thus tensions related to forced mi- skills and education, housing, lan- living costs and available jobs, strengthened. focus on quick and effec- gration.336 While forced migrants guage, and understanding of local resulting in broad economic ben- tive economic integra- have been supported by Swe- culture. Local efforts to support efits. For example, refugees have It is important to quickly and ef- tion. Policymakers should den’s generous welfare system, forced migrants should assess contributed an estimated $1.6 bil- fectively limit opportunities for Pcreate minimum standards for re- community members to isolate the national social safety nets ception and integration of forced arrivals and focus on the areas lion annually just to the economy that will most quickly allow them 333 new arrivals, and for new arrivals have been stretched, resulting in migrants, with focus on economic of central Ohio. 73 to isolate themselves. Though a rise of nationalist and increas- integration and self-sufficiencyto work. All efforts to integrate It is important to continue focus- new arrivals benefit from support ingly isolationist policies and po- and the role of local communities, or otherwise deal with forced mi- ing integration efforts on finding of previous arrivals (especially litical actors. There have been civil society, diaspora groups, grants in destination countries more and better jobs to forced those from similar ethnic or reli- allegations of an increase in the and others in the process.340 Ask should seek regular feedback migrants and those that need gious backgrounds), it is critical number of rapes in Sweden due a forced migrant anywhere in from the forced migrants them- them in the host community. Col- that official assistance to forced to increasing forced migration, the world what she wants and, selves, alongside local communi- lecting more and better skills- migrants also be provided to oth- when in reality sexual assault more often than not, she will tell ties and employers. LOCAL IMPACT “Due in large part to our robust economy and relatively low-cost of living, the DFW area has resettled Cities are a significant number of refugees— approximately 2,500 annually in 74 the New Dallas alone. The full integration of newcomers in the life and flow Leaders of our city is critical and we have long relied on the faith-based and Thanks to technology and the ubiquity of smart chapter iv phones, forced migrants typically have a sense of the community-based organizations to country to which they are destined. Each country of shoulder much of the work. Now, first asylum, other host country, or official resettlement destination has a certain reputation that sets we are bringing local governmental certain expectations. However, what forced migrants leadership to the efforts.” quickly realize is that, while national policies may matter to them obliquely, the face of their new home is defined by the city, town, or village. Mike Rawlings, Mayor of Dallas

Forced migration is an increasingly urban phenom- tinations of choice for forced migrants and the insti- enon tied to challenges with urbanization. Of the 22 tutions and governments that decide where to send million refugees worldwide, 60 percent live in cities them. Some control is useful, as uncontrolled flows and, though data on this is lacking, this percentage of people into a city without good administrative ca- is likely much higher for IDPs.343 Efforts to confront pacity and strong infrastructure could further weak- forced migration should thus consider urbanization en the city and lead to tension and even violence.348 challenges and strengthen existing urban systems, As the primary people dealing with forced migration aligning with longer-term urban development goals on a daily basis, it is important to integrate city offi- 344 where appropriate. It is worth noting that even dis- cials into these allocation systems, something that is placement camps are often very similar in structure not done often enough.349 to urban informal settlements (aka slums); the international community should work to transform camps City leadership is not only evident in the United States. Despite numerous failed attempts izenship) and facilitated access grants will continue to find new into more formal settlements; or at least to better Kilis is a city in southern Turkey about 4 miles from the integrate them in the local community and economy.345 Syrian border that has been the scene of repeated to do so, the European Union to employment, education, and ways of journeying on to Europe rocket attacks perpetrated by various armed groups and the United States. Increasing It is at this more local level that leadership has the should also strive for a common family reunification for spouses over the last few years. Despite the bombings, its city most potential for impact. This is also where there political consensus on resettle- and unmarried children under the numbers of non-Latin American leadership made a conscious decision years ago to are many lessons to be learned. Thus, “[cities] are ment and comprehensive revi- age of 21. If the goal is to turn a forced, irregular, and voluntary mi- accept and integrate their neighbors from across the the frontline players in dealing with refugees”346 grants are attempting to cross into border, ultimately resulting in a doubling of its popula- sion of the Common European perceived “burden” into econom- and other forced migrants. City leaders deserve a 342 tion since the beginning of the Syrian civil war.350 Over Asylum System, especially if the ic growth in host communities, the United States from Mexico. greater role in addressing the responses to—and in- time – and with deliberate support and funding from burdens of hosting on countries nuclear family reunification isCurrent policy treats the symp- deed solutions to root causes of—the global forced 347 local officials – Turks and Syrians have come together such as Germany and Sweden especially important. Those that toms of the underlying root caus- migration crisis. es of these mixed migration flows in schools and community centers to learn computer, are to be shared more broadly are not together with their fam- City and local-level issues are typically less political cooking, hairdressing, language, and other skills. So 341 at the same time that desperation throughout the European Union. ilies are less willing to integrate and more pragmatic. “I don’t have the time to polit- close to the bloodshed and violence in northern Syria continues to produce new and Policymakers in Germany limit in- and invest in their adopted com- icize migration of any kind,” said one city official in that forced them from home, Syrian forced migrants ternal movement partly because creative ways to journey onwards. Dallas. “Our city is growing too fast and receives so and their hosts in Kilis together exhibit one of the best munity; they typically make short- 351 they fear potential political ram- many refugees we’ve created a welcoming & immi- examples of integration. er-term economic decisions and To seek effective integration grant affairs office to harness the contributions of ref- ifications of free movement that Though they may not always appear on the front send money home as opposed to solutions, we must look to a di- ugees and immigrants in our city. Through this office, 75 could create ethnic enclaves. Ul- shopping in local businesses. verse and decentralized group of Dallas is undergoing an extensive process involving page of the newspaper, stories of hosting and re- timately people integrate better stakeholders for solutions. Cities, a broad spectrum of community leaders, including settlement in places such as Detroit, Kilis, Dallas, Malmo, Nashville, Boise, Louisville, and countless with freedom of movement with- New forced migration crises will the private sector, nonprofits and leaders who are immigrants and refugees themselves, to develop a strategic welcoming plan. The other cities are overwhelmingly not political. They in their country of resettlement. emerge across the developing NGOs, faith-based groups, and plan includes a comprehensive approach to address- are stories of people having suffered greatly being world—especially if we do not ad- This is especially true if granted local leaders are best placed to ing equitable delivery of city services, economic and given new opportunities in welcoming cities, towns, alongside adequate and durable equately address the root causes effectively execute integration educational opportunities, safety and health, and civ- and villages, many of which are happy to have them SEAN GALLUP/GETTY IMAGES SEAN GALLUP/GETTY legal status (even if short of cit- of such crises—and forced mi- strategies. ic engagement.” Cities such as these should be des- contribute to the local economy and community. 76 Forced migration is a complex and global crisis, one that lends itself to local and locally driven solutions. Since the crisis chapter v is global, solutions will require involvement of resources and expertise on a global scale; however, the specifics are often locally based, in part because of specific historic, cultural, ethnic, and religious components. Many ideas exist, though many are politically challenging, expensive, tough to implement, and require leadership and flexibility to accomplish. This report does not attempt to TAKING ACTION address every instance of forced migration; the report does present throughout actionable ideas worthy of broad consideration. Some of these ideas have the potential to change the nature of forced migration and ultimately reduce the number of forced migrants. Each idea352 below includes recommendations on how to turn the idea into action while attempting to reconcile national interest 77 with international need. IDEA 1 IDEA 2 PROTECT AND SECURE LEAD AND PARTNER Respond to current crises, predict future trends, prevent forced migration before it starts, The United States should exercise global leadership in the international system seeking and build greater resiliency in communities when it does happen. The United States greater burden sharing from allies and others. should use its diplomatic, development, and—as a last resort—military power to resolve Actions to operationalize this idea: 78 conflicts that force migration and cause instability that makes the country and the world less safe. 2.1 Build on the lessons from the Alliance for Prosperity, with the United States leading a global alliance to confront the root causes of forced migration, mobilizing $10 billion per year for 10 Actions to operationalize this idea: years via bilateral, multilateral, developing country, and private capital commitments. Beyond 1.1 Increase congressional leadership on these issues. Increase the number of Senate and funding pledges, the global alliance should mandate local participation and ownership, ad- House hearings and conduct more congressional and staff delegations to understand the dressing systemic issues through private-sector incentives, tax reform, and security commit- chapter v root causes of forced migration. The goal is to increase U.S. leadership on these issues, as ments. (Chapter II) well as identify the appropriate targeted increases in foreign assistance, trade preferences, partnerships with allies, and targeted increases in resettlements by the United States.353 2.2 Remain active as a full participant in the global compact for refugees. Because of the strategic value of doing so, the United States should strongly consider rejoining the global com- 1.2 Fill the assistant secretary of state position in the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migra- pact for migration process.354 Push for the greater consideration of IDPs and weather- and tion, ideally with someone experienced in working with the United Nations and other multi- climate-related forced migration in the compacts. (Annex C) lateral entities. (Introduction) 2.3 Create a compact for Bangladesh specific to its handling of the ohingyaR crisis, taking les- 1.3 Develop a forced migration early-warning system. (Chapter I) sons from Jordan and Lebanon and including innovative ideas as part of a suite of incentives.355 (Chapter III) 1.4 Place more USAID missions in forced migration “hot spots.” (Chapter IV) 2.4 Acknowledge and reward (e.g., via increased focus in future refugee and migration compact 1.5 Focus national security efforts on bringing forced migrants out of the shadows, working with implementation processes) positive policies and actions by countries—many of which are development agencies and partnering with governments to offer better safety, support, and dealing with economic and security challenges themselves—that are, in effect, providing a more opportunities as incentive. (Spotlight on National Security) global public good by hosting large numbers of forced migrants. (Chapter III)

1.6 Acknowledge that both humanitarian and development efforts are needed in confronting 2.5 Encourage more World Bank and other multilateral development bank involvement in fragile forced migration and provide appropriate financial support to both. Limit reallocation of for- states that disproportionately produce forced migrants.356,357 The World Bank, through re- eign assistance budgets to support arriving forced migrants (Introduction) while providing plenishing International Development Association (IDA) resources, has made an important greater support to addressing root causes (Chapter II). move in this direction with $2 billion made available to host countries for managing long-term 358 1.7 Incorporate diplomacy and development experts into national security planning exercises. solutions and to prevent their collapse. Other multilateral development banks and devel- (Spotlight on National Security) opment finance institutions (e.g., International Finance Corporation) should pilot contingent financing schemes to help origin countries prevent forced migration and to help host countries prepare for future shocks.359 Significant increases in U.S. and other country funding (e.g., capital increases) to these institutions should be contingent on their adequately addressing fragile states that disproportionately produce or host forced migrants. (Chapter II)

2.6 Create a country index that measures the existence, content, and implementation of policies on forced migration. Countries should be considered in a “portfolio approach” against a stan- dardized set of criteria, requiring more and better data.360

2.7 Appoint a special representative of the secretary general (SRSG) at the international level to raise visibility to and advocate solutions for internally displaced persons (IDPs), if necessary elevating the special rapporteur on the human rights of IDPs into this position.361 (Chapter III)

2.8 Reinforce implementation of the UN Guiding Principles on internal displacement. (Chapter III) 79 2.9 Assess U.S. funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), pressuring Saudi Arabia and others to increase their contributions and placing the agency on a future regional reform agenda. IDEA 3 IDEA 4 DIVERSIFY STAKEHOLDERS REGULARIZE AND NORMALIZE The private sector should be motivated and incentivized to responsibly engage in ways The most broadly effective solutions are ones that allow forced migrants to normalize that benefit the bottom line—in addition to corporate social responsibility, strategic gaps their existence and add value to host communities as quickly as possible. in business activities, investment, and private-sector engagement should be addressed. Actions to operationalize this idea: 80 Actions to operationalize this idea: 4.1 Secure access to quality education for forced migrants as quickly as possible with commen- 3.1 Support the elements of S.2463 - BUILD Act of 2018 and its proposed U.S. International surate increased support to host community education structures. (Chapter III) Development Finance Corporation that could be leveraged to increase productive private-sector engagement in fragile states. Expand the focus of the Overseas Private Invest- 4.2 Allow the USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance to spend funds on formal education ment Corporation (OPIC), enterprise funds, and USAID’s Development Credit Authority to for forced migrants and their host communities, including outside of displacement camps.

chapter v respond to forced migration. (Spotlight on the Private Sector) (Introduction)

3.2 Expand trade relations with countries that provide a common good by disproportionately 4.3 Provide greater resources and federal support to mayors and other local leaders resettling hosting forced migrants, for example, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Uganda. (Chapter III) refugees and asylees, with more weight given to areas where more forced migrants are resettling. (Chapter IV) 3.3 Focus foreign assistance increasingly on governance, strengthening the business environment and technical capabilities, and other reforms that create an enabling environment for private-sec- 4.4 Strengthen efforts to allow for and find more and better jobs for forced migrants—including tor growth in forced migration contexts. Recognize forced migrants as drivers of future economic giving forced migrants legal rights to work—and those that need them in the host community. growth and job creation, rather than just beneficiaries of CSR. (Spotlight on the Private Sector) (Spotlight on the Private Sector)

3.4 Support efforts such as the World Refugee Fund that seek to connect lenders to low-income 4.5 Maintain the U.S. refugee family reunification visa program—especially for spouses and un- forced migrant entrepreneurs. (Spotlight on the Private Sector) married children under the age of 21—of resettled refugees and asylees. (Chapter IV)

3.5 Commission further study of how best to expand deal readiness, growth of the deal pipeline, 4.6 Extend data collection for resettled refugees in the United States from 90 to 365 days. Make and capitalization, while closing the strategic gaps that exist today between them. Highlight these data available to researchers studying ways to improve the efficient allocation of peo- and support replication of successful and scalable efforts. (Spotlight on the Private Sector) ple to result in the highest possible levels of economic integration. (Chapter IV) 4.7 Explore the creation of an algorithmic skills, jobs, and country matching system for global forced migration. (Chapter IV)

4.8 Prioritize protection of the most vulnerable, often female heads of household and unaccompanied children. (Chapter III)

81 Annex A ral or environmental disasters, chem- nationality and is unable or, owing to Annex B on issues of migration and is thus own government, yet it is often this ical or nuclear disasters, famine, food such fear, is unwilling to avail himself a step in the right direction.365 very government that has perse- Glossary insecurity, or economic malfeasance. of the protection of that country.” In The Global cuted and displaced them.”369 Like addition to the refugee definition in Governments are allowed to de- 82 all human beings, IDPs have rights ASYLUM SEEKER INTERNALLY DISPLACED the 1951 Refugee Convention, Art. 1(2), Architecture port migrants who arrive illegally 1969 Organization of African Unity that are enshrined in internation- A person who seeks safety from per- PERSON (IDP) In conflict and crisis settings, the and have not obtained the nec- secution or serious harm in a country Person or group of persons who have (OAU) Convention defines a refugee al human rights instruments and terms used to describe people essary authorizations and docu- other than his or her own and awaits been forced or obliged to flee or to as any person compelled to leave norms. In situations of armed con- annex mentation. However, migrants do a decision on the application for refu- leave their homes or places of habitual his or her country “owing to external who are fleeing violence, insecu- flict, moreover, they enjoy the var- aggression, occupation, foreign dom- not forfeit their human rights at gee status under relevant internation- residence, in particular as a result of or rity, or persecution are often used ious protections provided to civil- al and national instruments. In case of in order to avoid the effects of armed ination or events seriously disturbing interchangeably. However, in law borders, even if they are cross- public order in either part or the whole 366 ians by international humanitarian a negative decision, the person must conflict, situations of generalized vi- and practice, there are important ing illegally. The United Nations of his country or origin or nationality.” law.370 The Guiding Principles on leave the country and may be ex- olence, violations of human rights, or distinctions between a refugee, has elaborated on the obligations natural or human-made disasters, and Similarly, the 1984 Cartagena Dec- Internal Displacement codified the pelled, as may any nonnational in an migrant, internally displaced per- of states for ensuring the human irregular or unlawful situation, unless who have not crossed an internation- laration states that refugees include rights germane to IDPs, including persons who flee their country “be- son (IDP), and other categories of rights of migrants. In its Recom- permission to stay is provided on hu- ally recognized state border. prohibitions on physical violence, cause their lives, security or freedom vulnerable people on the move. mended Principles and Guidelines manitarian or other related grounds. Guiding Principles arbitrary detention, restrictions on have been threatened by generalized on Human Rights at International on Internal Displacement freedom of movement, and guar- DE FACTO REFUGEE violence, foreign aggression, internal Migrants, including those fleeing Borders, OHCHR explains: “Inter- conflicts, massive violations of human antees for basic humanitarian as- Persons not recognized as refugees IRREGULAR MIGRANT dire economic conditions or polit- national borders are not zones of rights or other circumstances which sistance and access to education, within the meaning of the UN Con- Someone who, owing to illegal entry ical unrest, do not have a special exclusion or exception for human vention Relating to the Status of Ref- have seriously disturbed public order.” or the expiry of his or her visa, lacks protected status under interna- rights obligations. States are enti- economic opportunity, equal and ugees, 1951, and Protocol Relating legal status in a transit or host coun- 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol tional law (though they are pro- fair treatment under the law, po- to the Status of Refugees, 1967, and Relating to the Status of Refugees tled to exercise jurisdiction at their try. The term applies to migrants who tected under general human rights litical participation, and return or who are unable or, for reasons rec- violate a country’s admission rules international borders, but they law). According to the Office of the resettlement. However, recourse ognized as valid, unwilling to return and any other person not authorized STATELESS PERSON must do so in light of their human to the country of their nationality to remain in the host country (also A person who is not considered as a High Commissioner for Human rights obligations. This means that is limited when these rights are national by any state under the oper- or, if they have no nationality, to the called clandestine/illegal/undocu- Rights (OHCHR), an estimated the human rights of all persons at violated, though it does exist. For country of their habitual residence. mented migrant or migrant in an ir- ation of its law. As such, a stateless 244 million people currently live example, under the African Union person lacks those rights attributable international borders must be re- regular situation). outside of their country of origin, Convention for the Assistance FORCED MIGRANT to national-diplomatic protection of a spected in the pursuit of border “many having moved for a variety and Protection of IDPs in Africa— Similar to forcibly displaced person. MIGRANT state, no inherent right of sojourn in control, law enforcement and oth- This report chooses to primarily use The International Organization for the state of residence, and no right of reasons in which the search er State objectives, regardless of the Kampala Convention—which this broader term, taken original- Migration (IOM) defines a migrant of return in case he or she travels. for protection and the search for which authorities perform border came into effect in 2012, recourse ly from the World Disasters Report as any person who is moving or has UN Convention relating to opportunity are inextricably inter- governance measures and where is available via the African Court of 2012362 though used often else- 363 moved across an international border the Status of Stateless Persons twined.” Migrants, especially such measures take place.”367 Justice and Human Rights. where, to draw extra attention to the or within a state away from his or her those in irregular situations, of- burgeoning reality that displacement habitual place of residence, regard- VULNERABLE GROUP ten inhabit the most marginalized Internally displaced persons (IDPs) There is an emerging debate from one’s home often results in mi- Any group or sector of society that less of (1) the person’s legal status; (2) are perhaps in the most perilous about how to characterize those gration and, as such, should be con- is at higher risk of being subjected segments of society. Without le- whether the movement is voluntary forced from home, for example, sidered within similar contexts. Since or involuntary; (3) what the causes to discriminatory practices, violence, gal status, they “tend to live and situation, as they are typically many forced migrants end up on the for the movement are; or (4) what the natural or environmental disasters, work in the shadows, afraid to without any effective protection or because of the effects of environ- fringes of society with tenuous, if any, length of the stay is. IOM concerns or economic hardship than other complain, denied rights and free- assistance. Of the almost 66 mil- mental, climate, and human-in- protection under international law, a itself with migrants and migration-re- groups within the state; any group doms.”364 These circumstances lion people around the world who duced disasters or food insecurity forced migrant is also similar to an ir- lated issues and, in agreement with or sector of society (such as women, make migrants particularly vulner- have been forced to leave their and famine.371 Existing internation- regular migrant and a migrant. children, the disabled, or the elder- relevant states, with migrants who able to abuse, exploitation, and homes, over 40 million are IDPs.368 al law and instruments designed are in need of international migration ly) that is at higher risk in periods of for refugees do not explicitly pro- FORCIBLY DISPLACED PERSON services. At the international level, no conflict and crisis. trafficking. While organizationsThere is no international legal instrument specifically designed to vide for those who are displaced Similar to forced migrant. A person universally accepted definition of mi- like IOM work to support states 83 who has been forced from home, grant exists. with migration and migrants them- protect them, nor is there a single due to these factors; likewise, emigrated under duress or where an selves, there are gaps in interna- agency or organization mandated they do not qualify as voluntary element of coercion exists, including REFUGEE tional services for modern forced to provide protection and assis- or economic migrants. There- threats to life and livelihood, wheth- A person who, “owing to a well-found- migration. However, IOM’s recent tance to IDPs. The core dilemma fore, these individuals—many of er arising from natural or manmade ed fear of persecution for reasons of causes. This term encompasses ref- race, religion, nationality, membership status as a “related organization” for IDPs is the issue of state sov- whom this report categorizes as ugees, internally displaced persons, of a particular social group or political to the United Nations will allow ereignty: “under international law, forced migrants—do not have a as well as people displaced by natu- opinions, is outside the country of his both to coordinate more closely IDPs are the responsibility of their clear legal status or international protection specific to their situa- as the right to access education, Some experts argue that the cur- Annex C Regular Migration (GCM) was decision to pull out of the migration. If these displaced individuals healthcare, and dignified work. rent definitions and legal frame- published in February 2018.380 tion compact process, but contin- remain within their country, they However, if an asylum seeker is works are sufficient for those forc- The Global The draft laid out 22 ambitious, ues to participate in the refugee 84 would be categorized as IDPs. In- denied refugee status, he or she ibly displaced by circumstances Compacts actionable commitments that compact process. As the only ternational human rights treaties may be expelled in accordance that do not meet the criteria for shared some similarities with the country to withdraw from the state that they apply to every- with human rights standards. refugee status. They argue that The first drafts of the UN Com- Global Compact on Refugees. global migration compact pro- one within the jurisdiction of the opening up the Convention for pacts on Refugees and Migrants This complementarity should be cess, the United States claimed annex While the 1951 Convention Relat- country, but the implementation renegotiation or attempting to cre- were published in early 2018. encouraged (and is the under- that it “could undermine the sov- ing to the Status of Refugees was of those protections is lacking. ate new legal instruments to pro- These draft compacts are a result lying reason for this joint Annex ereign right of the U.S. to enforce the first effort to codify the rights Similarly, the Guiding Principles tect refugees would likely carry of a process spurred by the New on both compacts), especially [its] immigration laws and secure of refugees, these rights have on Internal Displacement are a significant risks in the current po- York Declaration for Refugees language that deals with protec- [its] borders.”381 Similar argu- evolved over the past 65 years.375 standard—not a law—and there- litical environment. The fear is that and Migrants, adopted in Sep- tion issues, human trafficking, ments have been made by other The legal architecture today is 377 fore do not hold institutions ac- some states would use it as an op- tember 2016 by 193 countries. etc., that are experienced by member states, though no others piecemeal and often inadequate. countable for applying those portunity to weaken protections The draft compacts represent both refugees and migrants. Ul- have withdrawn over these con- Developed in the wake of World agreements constructively.372 for refugees or diminish their inter- the collective aims of the signing timately, overlap is better than cerns. However, the compact it- War II, it offers selective protection countries in response to the glob- national obligations. Rather than gaps between the two compacts. self will not be a legally binding The 1951 Refugee Convention based on antiquated rules and is al refugee and migration crises, altering the legal framework, it is Some of the measures specific to document and therefore does and its 1967 protocol guarantee riddled with loopholes that allow but each document approaches the political support and will to im- the GCM include: aligning work- not threaten state sovereignty, certain protections for asylum countries to opt out of certain the issues via different processes plement it that requires attention. force programs with labor market given that most policy changes seekers and refugees and create provisions. For example, despite and for different aims.378 needs, expanding pathways for will be bilateral or regional.382 To obligations for states. There are hosting over 3 million displaced Others believe that it is necessary The Global Compact on Refugees legal migration, strengthening re- this end, these agreements will approximately 2 million asylum Syrians, Turkey excludes these to create a new international legal (GCR) came out with its “Zero sponse to smuggling and traffick- not even attempt to decide U.S. seekers and over 22 million ref- people from the rights granted framework or expand the defini- Draft” in January 2018.379 The ing, improving protection of un- border control policies or immi- ugees around the world today, under the 1951 Convention be- tion for refugees, given the legal compact outlines a set of com- accompanied children and other gration laws; this is a supporting over half of whom are under the cause Turkey limits the scope of limbo facing those forced from mitments that consist of the Com- vulnerabilities, protecting the framework of multilateral efforts age of 18. Under the fundamental the convention’s application to home by environmental, climate, 376 prehensive Refugee Response right to life, eliminating forms of to better manage migration flows. principle of non-refoulement in in- European asylum seekers only. and human-induced disasters or Framework (CRRF) and its under- discrimination, and improving the Despite the nonbinding nature of ternational law, host governments As a nonsignatory country to the food insecurity and famine. This lining measures. Among its ac- financial inclusion of migrants, to the migration compact, issues of cannot send asylum seekers or 1951 convention, Bangladesh also would afford these individuals tionable commitments, it address- name a few. Whereas refugee-re- sovereignty remain a preoccupa- refugees back to countries where does not consider Rohingya from special protections that would mir- Myanmar to be refugees; though es the need to: improve support lated treaties and standards have tion in discussions. their lives and liberty would be in ror those for refugees, considering they do allow for them to be pro- for host countries and commu- been around for decades, the danger.373 Unlike political asylum, the similarly forced nature of their n the other hand, there vided with similar support, they nities, improve capacity and re- GCM is widely considered to be which applies to those who can emigration. Just as refugees are remain significant are not required to do so since sponse, focus on data collection among the first efforts to produce prove a well-grounded fear of unable to return to their homes gaps within the ac- they are not a signatory. and dissemination, strengthen a seminal document on migration. persecution based on race, reli- because of the well-founded fear tions set out by these networks for refugees and coop- It is anticipated that the GCM will of persecution or death, so too can drafts that warrant U.S. skepti- gion, nationality, membership of a Efforts at reform have been made produce a final document in July O eration among all stakeholders, particular social group, or political these individuals not return due to cism; these actions will require but developed countries—where broaden support and protection 2018, with a rollout conference opinion, non-refoulement refers to factors beyond their control. further analysis and negotiation. few people end up compared to of refugees, use resources effi- planned for December 10 and 11 the generic repatriation of people, One such area to consider is the the tens of millions displaced in- An outstanding issue is that any ciently, and facilitate efforts for in Morocco. The Morocco confer- including refugees, into war zones overlapping features between ternally and regionally in develop- major reform will need champi- global solidarity. Those leading ence should be viewed as similar and other disaster situations.374 the two compacts; for example, ing countries—have little political on governments in developed the GCR process are quick to to the Rio 1992 climate confer- Asylum seeker and refugee rights incentive to change or respond both compacts call for provisions and developing regions. The fu- note that it is not a relitigation of ence; in other words, Morocco is 85 go beyond physical protection. in migration policy that promote to the problem collectively. The ture makeup of the coalition of previous refugee-related treaties the beginning of a long process They are due the same rights family reunification rather than erosion of political will from Ger- governments pushing for reform and standards; rather the GCR is that—even decades later—could and basic assistance as any other hinder it. The negotiations have many to the United States to the of the system is unclear, though a process that builds upon these result in something akin to the foreigner who is a legal resident, been heavily focused on security United Kingdom further weakens there is a clear need for leader- existing structures. 2015 Paris climate agreement. including freedom of thought, the application of agreements ship of such a coalition. concerns; while this debate may movement, freedom from torture to which states have previously The “Zero Draft” of the Global The United States recently an- not translate into the process di- and degrading treatment, as well committed themselves. Compact for Safe, Orderly and nounced in December 2017 its rectly, by opting out of the migration compact process, the United and must be part of the conversa- without a strong leadership pres- Annex D often cross several international States risks losing leverage on its tion. Efforts to address the reper- ence in this process, the United frontiers—and are predominantly own national security interests. cussions of these types of forced States loses its opportunity to Additional Views young men, whereas most of the 86 The compacts both address so- migration must focus on IDPs as direct the extent of the change forcibly uprooted are women and cial security entitlements, with well as refugees that cross in- and compromise in these frame- Matthew Reynolds, children. the migration compact calling for ternational boundaries. IDPs in works. Participation in these Regional Representative for Despite the present level of the “portability” of those benefits general do not get enough at- compact processes will establish annex the United States and the forced displacement, the prob- for migrants. This will require a tention in the compacts, which is and maintain strong relationships Caribbean, United Nations lem is manageable with sufficient detailed strategy for implemen- in line with the consistent gap in that will benefit the United States High Commissioner for Refugees political will. More than anything tation that standardizes instru- attention in larger forced migra- in the future. It would be a stra- (UNHCR) else, displaced persons need ments to enable portable bene- tion-related policies around IDPs. tegic disadvantage to not have a voice in the compact process; peace and security at home. Yet, fits. These gaps and others are Origin countries and multilaterals As the UN Refugee Agency, we especially as China, Russia, and addressing the root causes of important for the United States should increasingly include IDP have some concern with the term Saudi Arabia step up their lead- conflict has proven elusive in re- to identify and gauge what ele- concerns into discussions of ref- “forced migration” and the result- 383 ership in the processes as the cent decades. The new approach ments need to be considered in ugee return and resettlement. ing conflation of very different United States steps back, the championed by UNHCR and in- the forthcoming consultations. It forms of movement that require here is no one answer to United States risks losing its re- volving governments, humanitar- is interesting to note that munic- different policy responses. Migra- solve the migration crisis, gional influence and opportuni- ian and development agencies, ipalities are actively participating tion remains—predominantly—a but recognizing conflict- ty to shape this global platform. international financial institu- in the process; however, despite voluntary choice over which most ing interests and working This is important because both tions, and the private sector, fo- the critical role of cities in the participants maintain agency. In Ttoward common goals will help refugee and migration issues cuses on supporting host coun- forced migration crisis, it remains contrast, forced displacement is collectively guide future actions will, in some form or another and tries while enabling refugees to to be seen how their efforts will driven by life-threatening factors in governing movements yet to sooner rather than later, affect work, educate their children, and be reconciled with the broader 384 over which the displaced have come. It is worth noting that the the United States. They may not lead as normal a life as possible. compact process. little control. There are significant compacts will not immediately impact the United States on the If refugees are empowered to act differences between making a as their own agents of change, The categories of migrants cov- result in a treaty or international scale commensurate with its al- voluntary decision to live and the resulting benefits will accrue ered in the compact will be more law. There is an expectation that lies in Europe yet, but the need work outside of one’s country not only to them but to their host difficult to amend once they are implementation mechanisms will for stronger governance frame- and being forced to leave by con- communities and, eventually, to adopted, and there is a real risk evolve—especially on the migra- works and solutions for migration compact—partly because the flict, war, or persecution. There their home countries. that vulnerable groups will fall tion will be precedent so long compact process will be finalized are very few instances where between the cracks. There cur- as populations are on the move. before any UN internal reform persons displaced by conflict and rently exists no framework for di- The need for collective response process is completed. Neverthe- those forced from home by envi- saster displacement, something frameworks, data dissemination, less, multilateral strategic efforts ronmental disasters or economic that should be considered in the and early-warning systems align like these are important to set development physically coexist process now before it is too late with the U.S. national security in- the tone for international cooper- side by side. A policy response to include. Similarly, weather-re- terest. Such potential unforeseen ation and guidelines for manag- for one situation will rarely bene- lated displacement has been the threats cannot be addressed uni- ing migration flows. Without such fit multiple groups. source of much debate. At pres- laterally, it will require interna- agreements, there is no incentive tional dialogue and cooperation. ent, it is not clear whether this Despite the significant media at- for improved and coordinated re- It’s better to be on the team now component should be included in tention to the movement of ref- sponse to a reality that will persist without any binding contract than the GCM because many say that ugees and migrants across the and escalate, especially with de- miss out on an opportunity to col- it would likely warrant its own Mediterranean, the vast majority mographic changes and increas- laborate multilaterally when and 87 process. Whether as an official of forcibly displaced people do ing populations in both devel- if we ever need the support that part of the compact process or not move far from home. Most oped and developing countries. our allies are seeking. not, the role of weather, climate, refugees cross only one inter- and other disasters in forcing While these are only the begin- national border and remain in a people from their homes from ning drafts, these documents neighboring host country (gen- Bangladesh to the Maldives to set the platform for future nego- erally in the developing world). Haiti and beyond is undeniable tiations and dialogue. However, In contrast, economic migrants Annex E Center for Comparative Immigration Studies Embassy of the United States Senegal Kilimo Trust at UC San Diego List of Entities Consulted Embassy of the United States Sweden LATRA 88 Center for Genocide Studies for this Report at the University of Dhaka Embassy of the United States Uganda MCE Social Capital 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego Center for Global Development European Civil Protection MENACatalyst and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) annex ACCESS Detroit Center for the Study of Immigrant Integration Midwestern Freight Systems at the University of Southern California Global Communities African Development Bank Uganda Migration Policy Institute Centre Africain pour la Prévention Global Detroit Alliance San Diego Miguel Contreras Foundation et la Résolution des Conflits (VIVRE CAPREC) Graduate School of Education & Information American Chamber of Commerce Uganda Minister of State for Foreign Affairs City of Dallas Studies at UCLA of the Republic of Uganda American Refugee Committee City of Detroit Development Office HOPES ECHO Education Trust Fund Ministry of Justice in the Government Amnesty International Senegal Collateral Repair Project Human Rights Commission of the Grand of the Kingdom of Sweden National Assembly of the Republic of Turkey Arab American and Chaldean Council (ACC) CrossBoundary Mosaic Family Services Dallas IKEA Foundation Arab American National Museum CSIS Americas Program National Public Radio IKEA Retail Archdiocese of Los Angeles CSIS Europe Program Nordic Welfare Centre Institute for Immigration, Globalization, Association Conseil pour L’Action (ACA) CSIS Global Food Security Project and Education at UCLA Norwegian Refugee Council Jordan

Association for Solidarity with Asylum Seekers CSIS Human Rights Initiative Institute of Armenian Studies at Norwegian Refugee Council USA and Migrants (SGDD-ASAM) the University of Southern California CSIS Middle East Program Office of the Mayor of Gaziantep Atlantic Council International Committee of the Red Cross CSIS Southeast Asia Program Office of the Mayor of Kilis Bangladesh Enterprise Institute International Committee of the Red Cross Uganda CSIS Turkey Project Office of the Mayor of the City of Dallas Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies International Media Support Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce Office of the Mayor of the City of Detroit Bangladesh Legal Aid and Services Trust International Medical Corps Department for International Development Office of the Mayor of the City of San Diego Bangladesh National Human Rights Commission of the United Kingdom International Rescue Committee Dallas Office of the President of Baytna Syria Department of Economics at UC San Diego International Rescue Committee San Diego the Republic of Turkey

Better Shelter Department of Immigration and Border Invest Detroit Open Society Foundations Protection of the Commonwealth of Australia BRAC IOM Bangladesh PATH Adult Education Design for Peace BRAC Institute of Governance and Development IOM Uganda Queen Rania Foundation Development Initiatives Break Bread, Break Borders Jesuit Refugee Services Jordan Refugee Subcommittee of the Grand National 89 Disaster and Emergency Management Assembly of the Republic of Turkey Bureau of Population, Refugees, Presidency of the Republic of Turkey (AFAD) Jesuit Refugee Services Uganda and Migration at the U.S. Department of State Refugees International Edraak Education Initiative Justice and Development Party of Turkey (AK Parti) CARE International Rencontre Africaine pour la Défense des Droits Embassy of the United States Bangladesh de l’Homme (RADDHO) CATO Institute KEYS Academies Embassy of the United States Mali Research Initiatives Bangladesh ABOUT THE PROJECT DIRECTOR AND AUTHORS

SaferWorld UNDP Jordan Daniel F. Runde is director of the Project on Prosperity and Development and holds the William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis at CSIS. His work centers on leveraging Amer- Samaritas Detroit ican soft power instruments and the central roles of the private sector and good gover- 90 UNDP Turkey San Diego Regional Economic Development nance in creating a more free and prosperous world. Previously, he led the Foundations Council Unit for the Department of Partnerships & Advisory Service Operations at the Interna- tional Finance Corporation. His work facilitated and supported more than $20 million in San Diego Union-Tribune UNHCR Bangladesh new funding through partnerships with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Rockefeller annex Foundation, Kauffman Foundation, and Visa International, among other global private and School of Global Policy and Strategy corporate foundations. at UC San Diego UNHCR Jordan Earlier, Mr. Runde was director of the Office of Global Development Alliances at the U.S. School of Law at UCLA Agency for International Development (USAID). He led the initiative by providing training, UNHCR Livelihoods networks, staff, funds, and advice to establish and strengthen alliances, while personally Small Enterprise Assistance Funds consulting to 15 USAID missions in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. His efforts Southwest Solutions Adult Learning Lab leveraged $4.8 billion through 100 direct alliances and 300 others through training and UNHCR Senegal technical assistance. Mr. Runde began his career in financial services at Alex. Brown & SREO Consulting Sons, Inc., in Baltimore and worked for both CitiBank and BankBoston in Buenos Aires, Argentina. He received an M.P.P. from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard Uni- Stockholm International Peace Research Insti- UNHCR Turkey versity and holds a B.A., cum laude, from Dartmouth College. tute Erol K. Yayboke is deputy director and fellow with the Project on U.S. Leadership in Devel- Survivors of Torture International San Diego UNHCR Uganda opment (USLD) and Project on Prosperity and Development (PPD) at CSIS. Joining CSIS in Swedfund January 2017, his main day-to-day role is advancing USLD and PPD’s research agendas. His specific research interests include the role of the private sector in the developing Swedish Association of Local Authorities UNOCHA Jordan world, foreign direct investment, the future of U.S. foreign assistance, good governance, and Regions (SALAR) development economics, and international finance. Previously, he served in several capacities with the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign. Immediately prior to that, he was a Swedish Delegation for the Employment of UNRWA program/research manager on the Evidence for Policy Design (EPoD) team at the Center Young People and Newly Arrived Migrants for International Development at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. (DUA) Mr. Yayboke also has long-term field experience working for organizations (Global Com- USAID Bangladesh Sync Accelerator munities, Save the Children, and AECOM International Development) in Iraq, Afghanistan, South Sudan, and the Somali Region of Ethiopia, serving in various senior country and Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) project management roles. He is a member of the board of directors for the Andi Leader- USAID Mali ship Institute for Young Women, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit. Mr. Yayboke holds an Syrian Economic Forum M.P.A. from the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and a B.B.A. Tamkeen Legal Aid USAID Senegal in international business also from the University of Texas at Austin.

Techfugees Summit Aaron N. Milner is a research associate with the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Devel- opment. Mr. Milner’s research centers on technological innovation and transfer alongside USAID Uganda Timbro improving private-sector engagement and investment in the developing world, specifically into how these issues can channel and impact global migration. Prior to joining CSIS, Turkish Red Crescent World Bank Uganda Mr. Milner served as a management consultant focused on financial analysis at KPMG. He U.S. African Development Foundation holds an M.A. in global policy studies from the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and a B.A. in international relations from the University of Texas at Austin. 91 U.S. Committee for Refugees World Vision Uganda and Immigrants (USCRI) Detroit

U.S. Department of State Zaman International UCLA Blueprint

UN Habitat Jordan ENDNOTES 21 International Crisis Group, “Turkey’s Growing Refugee Challenge—Rising Social Tensions,” October 27, 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkeys-grow- 1 The term “forced migration” is used carefully and deliberately; see the later text box “Words Matter” for ing-refugee-challenge-rising-social-tensions. more explanation. 22 Joey Ayoub, “How the EU is responsible for slavery in Libya,” Al Jazeera, November 29, 2017, https://www. 2 Many more if you include environmental, climate, and human-induced disasters. aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/slavery-walls-fortress-europe-171128094218944.html. 3 Roger Zetter, “Protection in Crisis: Forced Migration and Protection in a Global Era,” Migration Policy Insti- 23 When Austria and Hungary pushed people out of their countries, it led to increased strain on Sweden and 92 tute, March 2015, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/protection-crisis-forced-migration-and-protec- Germany. Anemona Hartocollis, “Traveling in Europe’s River of Migrants,” New York Times, September 9, tion-global-era. 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/reporters-notebook/migrants/denmark-march-sweden. 4 Ibid. 24 Jessica Hagen-Zanker and Richard Mallet, “Migration policy: three things to know about ‘Fortress Europe,’” Overseas Development Institute (ODI), October 20, 2015, https://www.odi.org/comment/9995-migration- 5 Jessica Riley, “The State of a Stateless People: The Current Rohingya Crisis,” Michigan Journal of Interna- policy-three-things-know-about-fortress-europe. tional Law, http://www.mjilonline.org/the-state-of-a-stateless-people-the-current-rohingya-crisis/. 25 For a detailed history of the global architecture, see Annex B. 6 David C. Baluarte, “Life after Limbo: Stateless Persons in the United States and the Role of International Protection in Achieving a Legal Solution,” Washington and Lee University School of Law, 2015, https:// 26 United Nations, “Promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=http://www.mjilonline.org/the-state-of-a-state- terrorism,” September 13, 2016, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/N1628561.pdf. less-people-the-current-rohingya-crisis/&httpsredir=1&article=1508&context=wlufac. 27 Ibid. 7 UNHCR, “A 10-Point Plan of Action,” http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/mixed-migration.html. 28 United Nations, “The Foundation of International Human Rights Law,” http://www.un.org/en/sections/uni- 8 Rebekah’s story and all the stories included in this report are based on in-depth, in-person interviews with versal-declaration/foundation-international-human-rights-law/index.html. one or both of the authors. Though their names have been changed to protect their safety, their stories 29 Zetter, “Protection in Crisis: Forced Migration and Protection in a Global Era.” have not been changed and are true to the full extent of the authors’ knowledge. 30 UNHCR, “States Parties to the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol,” 9 The term “forced migration” is used carefully and deliberately; see the earlier text box “Words Matter” for http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/protection/basic/3b73b0d63/states-parties-1951-convention-its-1967-protocol. more explanation. html. 10 This is a tabulation of humanitarian aid dollars to a selection of countries that either host or originate high 31 An example of this is the “safe zone” in Syria along the Turkish-Syrian border. Though officially meant as rates of refugees, IDPs, and forced migrants. This list includes, but is not limited to, Turkey, Pakistan, Leb- a place to keep civilians away from conflict, the result is that Syrian forced migrants are unable to escape anon, Iran, Uganda, Jordan, Kenya, Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Central African into Turkey. Republic. 32 Both the UN refugee agency (UNHCR; unhcr.org) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM; 11 Erol Yayboke, “The Strategic Implications of Exiting the Global Migration Compact Process,” CSIS Com- iom.int) were created to handle the millions of displaced persons in post–World War II reconstruction, and mentary, December 22, 2017, https://www.csis.org/analysis/strategic-implications-exiting-global-migra- have been integral to global solutions since the 1950s. IOM alone has over 169 member countries and has tion-compact-process. historically been led by an American citizen. 12 Twenty-two out of 28 European countries that publish security strategies consider some variation of forced 33 UNHCR, http://www.unhcr.org/59c4ff6e7.pdf. migration as a top issue for national security. 34 Projections based on calculations and trends on http://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2016/. 13 Bethany Bell, “EU migrant crisis: Austria can deport asylum seekers, court says,” BBC News, July 26, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40714946. 35 World Bank, “Meet the Human Faces of Climate Migration,” March 19, 2018, http://www.worldbank.org/en/ news/feature/2018/03/19/meet-the-human-faces-of-climate-migration. 14 “Migrant crisis: Austria passes controversial new asylum law,” BBC News, April 27, 2016, http://www.bbc. com/news/world-europe-36152927. 36 Projections based on calculations and trends on http://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2016/. 15 Francois Murphy, “Austria falls out with mighty neighbor Germany in refugee crisis,” Reuters, February 26, 37 World Bank, “Meet the Human Faces of Climate Migration.” 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-austria-germany/austria-falls-out-with-mighty- 38 Jeannette Money and Timothy W. Taylor, “Voluntary International Migration,” Oxford Bibliographies, 2016, neighbor-germany-in-refugee-crisis-idUSKCN0VZ1RT. https://migrationcluster.ucdavis.edu/research/voluntary-international-migration. 16 UNHCR, “Hungary: UNHCR dismayed over further border restrictions and draft law targeting NGOs 39 UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2016,” 2016, http://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2016/. working with asylum-seekers and refugees,” February 16, 2018, http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/ 40 Note that these figures should be considered as the minimum; there are many more unregistered and press/2018/2/5a86dcff4/hungary-unhcr-dismayed-further-border-restrictions-draft-law-targeting.html. unaccounted forced migrants living in the shadows. Adrian Edwards, “Forced displacement worldwide at 17 Human Rights Watch (HRW), “Europe’s Refugee Crisis,” November 16, 2015, https://www.hrw.org/re- its highest in decades,” UNHCR, June 19, 2017, http://www.unhcr.org/afr/news/stories/2017/6/5941561f4/ port/2015/11/16/europes-refugee-crisis/agenda-action; Amnesty International, “Fear and Fences: Europe’s forced-displacement-worldwide-its-highest-decades.html. Approach to Keeping Refugees at Bay,” 2015, https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/EU- 41 Lydia DePillis, Kulwant Saluja and Denise Lu, “A visual guide to 75 years of major refugee crises around 93 R0325442015ENGLISH.PDF. the world,” Washington Post, December 21, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/histori- 18 Rik Rutten, “Why Once-Welcoming Countries in Scandinavia Closed Their Borders to Refugees,” World cal-migrant-crisis/. Politics Review, January 4, 2017, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/20824/why-once-welcoming- 42 U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, “Postwar Refugee Crisis and the Establishment of the State of Israel,” countries-in-scandinavia-closed-their-borders-to-refugees. https://www.ushmm.org/wlc/en/article.php?ModuleId=10005459. 19 David Crouch, “Sweden slams shut its open-door policy towards refugees,” The Guardian, November 24, 43 Christopher Layne, “The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable,” Atlantic, April 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/sweden-asylum-seekers-refugees-policy-reversal. 26, 2012, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-west- 20 David Crouch, “Sweden and Denmark crack down on refugees at borders,” The Guardian, January 6, 2016, ern-decline-became-inevitable/256388/. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/03/sweden-to-impose-id-checks-on-travellers-from-denmark. 44 Walter Kälin, “Durable Solutions for Internally Displaced Persons: An Essential Dimension of Peacebuild- 64 Council on Foreign Relations, “Women’s Participation in Peace Processes,” January 5, 2018, https://www. ing,” Brookings Institution, March 13, 2008, https://www.brookings.edu/research/durable-solutions-for-inter- cfr.org/interactive/womens-participation-in-peace-processes. nally-displaced-persons-an-essential-dimension-of-peacebuilding/. 65 UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (S/RES/1325) acknowledges “the important role of women in the 45 Zara Sarzin, “Stocktaking of Global Forced Displacement Data,” World Bank Policy Research Working prevention and resolution of conflicts, peace negotiations, peace-building, peacekeeping, humanitarian Paper, 2017, 30, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/26183/WPS7985.pdf?se- response and in post-conflict reconstruction.” United Nations, “Landmark resolution on Women, Peace and quence=1&isAllowed=y. Security,” http://www.un.org/womenwatch/osagi/wps/.

94 46 Nicholas Crawford, John Cosgrave, Simone Haysom, and Nadine Walicki, “Protracted Displacement: Un- 66 United Nations, “Children,” http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/children-49c3646c1e8.html. certain Paths to Self-Reliance in Exile,” Overseas Development Institute, September 2015, 1, https://www. 67 Human Rights Watch, “Seeking Refuge, Unaccompanied Children in Sweden,” June 9, 2016, https://www. odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9851.pdf. hrw.org/report/2016/06/09/seeking-refuge/unaccompanied-children-sweden. 47 World Bank, “Forcibly Displaced: Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the Inter- 68 U.S. Customs and Border Protection, “Southwest Border Unaccompanied Alien Children FY 2014,” https:// nally Displaced, and Their Hosts,” 2017, 25, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han- www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-border-unaccompanied-children/fy-2014. dle/10986/25016/9781464809385.pdf?sequence=11&isAllowed=y. 69 OECD, “Development aid rises again in 2016 but flows to poorest countries dip,” November 4, 2017, http:// 48 UNHCR defines protracted refugee situations as those where “25,000 or more refugees from the same www.oecd.org/newsroom/development-aid-rises-again-in-2016-but-flows-to-poorest-countries-dip.htm. nationality have been in exile for five or more years in a given asylum country.” (U.S. Department of State, UNCHR ExCom, 2009). 29–30. 70 Molly Anders, “OECD DAC clarifies rules on in-donor aid spending for refugees,” Devex, November 1, 2017, https://www.devex.com/news/oecd-dac-clarifies-rules-on-in-donor-aid-spending-for-refugees-91433. 49 UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2014.” 71 World Bank, “Cities of Refuge in the Middle East: Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement,” 50 Charlotte Edmond, “84% of refugees live in developing countries,” World Economic Forum, June 20, 2017, September 14, 2017, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28901/121515-PN-PUB- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/eighty-four-percent-of-refugees-live-in-developing-countries/. LIC-FINALCITIESOFREFUGEURBANLENS.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y. 51 See: UNHCR data, 2016, http://popstats.unhcr.org/en/resettlement. 72 Ibid. 52 This is not a calculation of all refugees ever resettled but refugees currently hosted or claiming asylum. 73 United Nations, “Urban Refugees,” http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/urban-refugees.html. Refugee status and figures are regularly in flux. 74 Baher Kamal, “Now 1 in 2 World’s Refugees Live in Urban Areas,” Inter Press Service, May 19, 2016, http:// 53 In the case of Saudi Arabia and Russia, military interventions are directly contributing to displacement in www.ipsnews.net/2016/05/now-1-in-2-worlds-refugees-live-in-urban-area/. places like Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine. China, on the other hand, has a lesser direct impact on the crisis in Myanmar and Bangladesh, but its abandonment of refugees and enabling attitude toward the Myanmar 75 UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2016.” regime do worsen these crises. Saudi Arabia argues that it supports forced migration issues through mi- 76 United Nations, “Promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering grant labor employment for Syrians, Libyans, Bangladeshis, and others, but reported salaries and working terrorism,” September 13, 2016, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/N1628561.pdf. conditions are less than ideal. 77 Francisco Martin-Rayo, “Countering Radicalization in Refugee Camps: How Education Can Help Defeat 54 Oxfam, “Syria Crisis Fair Share Analysis 2016,” 2016, https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/ AQAP,” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, June 2011, https://www.belfercenter.org/publica- file_attachments/bn-syria-fair-shares-analysis-010216-en.pdf. tion/countering-radicalization-refugee-camps-how-education-can-help-defeat-aqap. 55 Shi Jiangtao, “China willing to open its pockets, but not borders, to Middle East refugees,” June 26, 2017, 78 Barbara Sude, David Stebbins, and Sarah Weilant, “Lessening the Risk of Refugee Radicalization,” RAND, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099908/china-willing-open-its-pockets-not- 2015, https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE166.html. borders-middle-east?utm_source=businessinsider&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=con- 79 Manni Crone, Maja Felicia Falkentoft, and Teemu Tammikko, “An Extraordinary Threat? Europe’s refugee tentexchange. crisis and the threat of terrorism,” Danish Institute for International Studies, June 22, 2017, https://www.diis. 56 Liang Pan, “Why China Isn’t Hosting Syrian Refugees,” Foreign Policy, February 26, 2016, http://foreignpoli- dk/en/research/european-citizens-not-refugees-behind-most-terrorist-attacks-in-europe. cy.com/2016/02/26/china-host-syrian-islam-refugee-crisis-migrant/. 80 Jared Malsin, “Experts Warn President Trump’s Refugee Ban Could Backfire: ISIS ‘Rubbing Their Hands 57 UNHCR, “Turkey Fact Sheet,” October 2017, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/60548. with Glee,’” Time, January 28, 2017, http://time.com/4651729/president-trump-refugee-suspension-back- 58 Jens Manuel Krogstad and Jynnah Radford, “Key facts about refugees to the U.S.,” Pew Research Center, fire/. January 20, 2017, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/30/key-facts-about-refugees-to-the-u-s/. 81 Today there are more forced migrants than people living with HIV/AIDS. “The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic,” 59 World Bank, “Forcibly Displaced: Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the Internally HIV.gov, https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/global-statistics. Displaced, and Their Hosts,” 18. 82 Patrick Kingsley, “The small African region with more refugees than all of Europe,” The Guardian, Novem- 60 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre and Norwegian Refugee Council, “Global Report on Internal Dis- ber 26, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/26/boko-haram-nigeria-famine-hunger-displacement,” 2017, 10, http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/publications/2017/20170522-GRID.pdf. placement-refugees-climate-change-lake-chad. 61 UNHCR, “Women, Children and Older Refugees,” July 19, 2001, http://www.unhcr.org/statistics/un- 83 African Development Bank Group, “Jobs for Youth in Africa: Catalyzing youth opportunity across Africa,” 95 hcrstats/3b9378e518/women-children-older-refugees-sex-age-distribution-refugee-populations.html. https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Images/high_5s/Job_youth_Africa_Job_youth_Africa.pdf. 62 United Nations, “In safety and dignity: addressing large movements of refugees and migrants,” April 21, 84 Ty McCormick, “The Paradox of Prosperity,” Foreign Policy, October 4, 2017, http://europeslamsitsgates. 2016, https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/sites/default/files/in_safety_and_dignity__addressing_large_move- foreignpolicy.com/part-1-the-paradox-of-prosperity-mali-africa-europe-EU-migration. ments_of_refugees_and_migrants.pdf. 85 Zeinab Cherri, Pedro Arcos González, and Rafael Castro Delgado, “The Lebanese–Syrian crisis: impact of 63 Amnesty International, “Female refugees face physical assault, exploitation and sexual harassment on their influx of Syrian refugees to an already weak state,” Dove Medical Press Limited, July 14, 2016, https://www. journey through Europe,” January 18, 2016, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/01/female-refu- ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4948691/. gees-face-physical-assault-exploitation-and-sexual-harassment-on-their-journey-through-europe/. 86 Natasha Turak, “What’s happening in Lebanon, and why its stability matters,” CNBC, November 21, 2017, 105 “Facing labour shortfall, Japan firms turn to refugees,” The Business Times, March 23, 2018, https://www. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/21/whats-happening-in-lebanon-and-why-its-stability-matters.html. businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/facing-labour-shortfall-japan-firms-turn-to-refugees. 87 “How the Lebanese school system is segregating refugees,” IRIN, June 27, 2017, https://www.irinnews.org/ 106 “Almost half of those seeking refugee status in Japan are in their 20s: Justice Ministry,” The Japan Times, feature/2017/06/27/how-lebanese-school-system-segregating-refugees. March 23, 2018, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/03/23/national/almost-half-seeking-refugee-sta- 88 “Lebanon near ‘breaking point’ over Syrian refugee crisis: PM Hariri,” Reuters, March 31, 2017, https://www. tus-japan-20s-justice-ministry/#.WrU4Ni7wZpg. reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-lebanon/lebanon-near-breaking-point-over-syrian-refugee-cri- 107 “Why does Japan accept so few refugees?,” BBC News, June 8, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world- 96 sis-pm-hariri-idUSKBN1722JM. asia-36474444/why-does-japan-accept-so-few-refugees. 89 Michael Clemens, “The Real Economic Cost of Accepting Refugees,” The Center for Global Development, 108 Amnesty International, “Syria’s Refugee Crisis in Numbers,” February 3, 2016, https://www.amnesty.org/en/ September 14, 2017, https://www.cgdev.org/blog/real-economic-cost-accepting-refugees. latest/news/2016/02/syrias-refugee-crisis-IN-numbers/. 90 Note that these figures are refugee resettlement numbers and do not include countries like Turkey and 109 “Saudi Arabia hosts 895,175 Yemeni, Syrian refugees as guests: KSRelief chief,” Arab News, May 7, 2017, Uganda that have accepted huge numbers of refugees from neighboring countries. http://www.arabnews.com/node/1095621/saudi-arabia. 91 UNHCR, “Resettlement Data Finder,” http://rsq.unhcr.org/en/#cM6A. 110 Caroline Mortimer, “India trying to deport 40,000 Rohingya Muslim over ‘ties to terrorism,’” The Indepen- 92 UNHCR, “Resettlement Data,” http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/resettlement-data.html. dent, September 18, 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-rohingya-muslims-deport-burma-40000-supreme-court-terrorists-bangladesh-myanmar-a7953851.html. 93 Mary Troyan, “Lindsey Graham calls on U.S. to accept refugees,” USA Today, September 8, 2015, https:// www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/09/08/lindsey-graham-calls-us-accept-refu- 111 Saif Khalid, “Rohingya in India fear deportation to Myanmar,” Al Jazeera, September 12, 2017, https://www. gees/71895498/. aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/09/rohingya-india-fear-deportation-myanmar-170911134706072.html. 94 Mariya Petkova, “Why Russia refuses to give refugee status to Syrians,” Al Jazeera, January 17, 2018, https:// 112 Caroline Mortimer, “India Trying to Deport 40,000 Rohingya Muslim over ‘Ties to Terrorism,’” Independent, www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/russia-refuses-give-refugee-status-syrians-180116095003651.html. September 18, 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-rohingya-muslims-deport-bur- 95 When Austria and Hungary pushed people out of their countries, it led to increased strain on Sweden and ma-40000-supreme-court-terrorists-bangladesh-myanmar-a7953851.html. Germany. Anemona Hartocollis, “Traveling in Europe’s River of Migrants,” New York Times, September 9, 113 Some countries do not publish a national strategy, while others do not list migration as a priority (e.g., 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/reporters-notebook/migrants/denmark-march-sweden. Luxembourg and Cyprus). Of the countries that do publish national strategies or security documents, some 96 United Nations, “Ukraine: Internally Displaced People,” August 21, 2015, http://reporting.unhcr.org/sites/de- variation of migration is listed as a top concern alongside other issues like cyber or nuclear security, cli- fault/files/Ukraine%20Internally%20Displaced%20People%20Map%2021AUG15.pdf. mate change, or terrorism. 97 UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2016.” 114 Countries like Austria and Hungary may not have ever been end destination countries for forced migrants, but politicians there nevertheless manipulate migration-related issues to consolidate political power. 98 Liang Pan, “Why China Isn’t Hosting Syrian Refugees,” Foreign Policy, February 26, 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/26/china-host-syrian-islam-refugee-crisis-migrant/. 115 Richard Hall, “How the Brexit campaign used refugees to scare voters,” Public Radio International (PRI), June 24, 2016, https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-06-24/how-brexit-campaign-used-refugees-scare-voters. 99 Song Jing, eds. Kitty McKinsey, Leo Dobbs, “Vietnamese refugees well settled in China, await citizenship,” UNHCR, May 10, 2007, http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/news/latest/2007/5/464302994/vietnamese-refu- 116 Peter Walker, “Russia ‘spreading fake news about refugees to sow discord in Europe’ says ex-spy,” The gees-well-settled-china-await-citizenship.html. Independent, March 22, 2017, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-europe-threat-refugee-crisis-europe-aggravate-propaganda-kremlin-farenc-katrei-hungarian-spy-a7642711.html. 100 Refer to the Report of the UN Commission of inquiry on human rights in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea], UN Doc. A/HRC/25/63, 7 February 2014, paras. 42, 43 and 90 (a). Chaired by former 117 “Migrant crisis: Russia and Syria ‘weaponising’ migration,” BBC News, March 2, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/ Justice Michael Kirby (Australia), it finds that China “pursues a rigorous policy of forcibly repatriating citi- news/world-europe-35706238. zens of the DPRK who cross the border illegally” and that these citizens once returned are “systematically” 118 U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, http://www.usglc.org/. subjected to persecution, torture, prolonged arbitrary detention, and in some cases, sexual violence. In a 119 William N. Evans and Daniel Fitzgerald, “The Economic and Social Outcomes of Refugees in the United letter to the Chinese authorities, appended to the report, Kirby warns China that its practices could be aid- ing and abetting North Korea’s crimes against humanity. “Report of the Commission of Inquiry on Human States: Evidence from the Acs,” National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2017, http://www.nber.org/ Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” United Nations Human Rights Council, February 7, papers/w23498.pdf. 2014, http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/CoIDPRK/Pages/ReportoftheCommissionofInquiryDPRK. 120 Michael A. Clemens and Jennifer Hunt, “The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflict- aspx. ing Results,” Center for Economic Performance, July 2017, http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1491.pdf. 101 Note that these figures should be considered as the minimum; there are many more unregistered and 121 New American Economy, “Immigrants in San Diego Contributed $54 Billion to County GDP in 2016,” Febru- unaccounted-for forced migrants living in the shadows. UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in ary 2, 2018, http://www.newamericaneconomy.org/press-release/immigrants-in-san-diego-contributed-54- 2016.” billion-to-county-gdp-in-2016/. 102 Wang Jin, “Why Do Chinese Reject Middle Eastern Refugees?,” The Diplomat, June 23, 2017, https://thedip- 122 “Statement by Senators McCain and Graham on Executive Order on Immigration,” Website of Sen. John lomat.com/2017/06/why-do-chinese-reject-middle-eastern-refugees/. McCain, January 29, 2017, https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2017/1/statement-by-sena- 97 103 Shi Jiangtao, “China willing to open its pockets, but not borders, to Middle East refugees,” June 26, 2017, tors-mccain-graham-on-executive-order-on-immigration. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099908/china-willing-open-its-pockets-not- 123 Emma Green, “Where Christian Leaders Stand on Trump’s Refugee Policy,” The Atlantic, January 27, 2017, borders-middle-east?utm_source=businessinsider&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=con- https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/christians-refugees-trump/514820/. tentexchange. 124 “Reps. Ros-Lehtinen and Lieu Introduce World Refugee Day Resolution,” Website of Rep. Ileana Ros-Le- 104 Annette Ekin, “Lives in limbo: Why Japan accepts so few refugees,” Al Jazeera, June 20, 2017, https:// htinen June 20, 2017, https://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/press-release/reps-ros-lehtinen-and-lieu-intro- www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/06/lives-limbo-japan-accepts-refugees-170608122312650.html. duce-world-refugee-day-resolution. 125 “Ros-Lehtinen Objects to President Trump’s Executive Order Creating Moratoriums on Visas and Refugees Mexico Border,” Antipode, vol. 48, no. 5 (November 2016), https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ Instead of Heightening Scrutiny of Such Programs,” Website of Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, January 29, 2017, anti.12242. https://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/press-release/ros-lehtinen-objects-president-trumps-executive-order-creat- 145 See: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, “U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services: Victims of Human ing-moratoriums-visas-and. Trafficking and Other Crimes,” https://www.uscis.gov/humanitarian/victims-human-trafficking-other-crimes. 126 Colum Lynch, “Haley: Vote with U.S. at U.N. or We’ll Cut Your Aid,” Foreign Policy, March 15, 2018, http:// 146 “Why Indonesia Shrugged Off ustralia’sA Move to Bar Refugees,” The Conversation, December 21, 2014, foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/15/haley-vote-with-u-s-at-u-n-or-well-cut-your-aid/. https://theconversation.com/why-indonesia-shrugged-off-australias-move-to-bar-refugees-34533. 98 127 Colum Lynch, “Nikki Haley’s Diplomacy of Revenge Targets U.N. Relief Agency,” Foreign Policy, January 5, 147 “Migrants ‘turned away by Australia’ saved in Indonesia,” Al Jazeera, June 2, 2015, https://www.aljazeera. 2018, http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/05/nikki-haleys-diplomacy-of-revenge-targets-u-n-relief-agency/. com/news/2015/06/migrants-turned-australia-saved-indonesia-150602062059463.html. 128 Alan Gomez, “Refugee admissions to U.S. plummet in 2017,” USA Today, January 3, 2018, https://www. 148 Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah, “Reassessing the Impacts of Brain Drain on Developing Countries,” Migration usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/01/03/refugee-admissions-u-s-plummet-2017/999903001/. Policy Institute, August 1, 2005, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/reassessing-impacts-brain-drain-de- 129 “Ros-Lehtinen Commemorates World Refugee Day,” Website of Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, June 20, 2016, veloping-countries. https://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/press-release/ros-lehtinen-commemorates-world-refugee-day. 149 Key informant interview. 130 Katayoun Kishi, “Most refugees who enter the U.S. as religious minorities are Christians,” Pew Research 150 Will Jones, Alexander Teytelboym, and Dalibor Rohac, “Europe’s Refugee Crisis: Pressure Points and Center, February 7, 2017, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/07/most-refugees-who-enter-the- Solutions,” American Enterprise Institute, April 2017, http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Eu- u-s-as-religious-minorities-are-christians/. ropes-Refugee-Crisis.pdf. 131 “Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2017: Executive Summary,” Development Initiatives, 2017, https:// 151 Refugee Processing Center, “Arrivals and Admissions,” 1975–2018, http://www.wrapsnet.org/admis- reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/GHA-Report-2017-Executive-summary.pdf. sions-and-arrivals/. 132 This number discounts the $6.9 billion of humanitarian assistance from the private sector. 152 Alex Nowrasteh, “Terrorism and Immigration: A Risk Analysis,” Cato Institute, September 13, 2016, https:// 133 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), “World Disasters Report 2012,” object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa798_2.pdf. 2012, http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Documents/Secretariat/2012_WDR_Full_Report.pdf. 153 Ibid. 134 This graph features a different dollar amount for ODA going to forced migration than what is also featured in 154 Tim Lister, Ray Sanchez, Mark Bixler, Sean O’Key, Michael Hogenmiller, and Mohammed Tawfeeq, “ISIS this report in other graphs. This particular tabulation includes all in-donor country refugee costs, ODA chan- goes global: 143 attacks in 29 countries have killed 2,043,” CNN, February 12, 2018, https://www.cnn. neled bilaterally and multilaterally through various UN agencies and IOM, and all other ODA activities for sup- com/2015/12/17/world/mapping-isis-attacks-around-the-world/index.html. porting refugees and IDPs, combating effects of forced migration, support for host communities, and support 155 Evidence of this can be found in aftermath of the rape and murder of a 19-year-old woman in Germany, Ma- for asylum seekers. Other graphs in the report rely on in-donor refugee costs as reported by the OECD. The ria Ladenburger, on October 16, 2016, allegedly by an Afghan asylum seeker. Anti-immigrant and far-right OECD number is meant to demonstrate development funds being spent on refugees, while the above trend political groups like the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party quickly used the tragedy as “evidence” demonstrates the total rise in spending on forced migration compared with global health spending. supporting its stance against chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee strategy: http://www.news.com.au/world/ 135 Projections based on simple extrapolations from trends found on: http://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2016/. europe/tragic-death-of-young-student-maria-ladenburger-used-as-fuel-for-political-debate-in-germany/ news-story/ddb5583eb0148eda2d0de4f749e49caf. 136 Vimal Thakoor and John Wakeman-Linn,“Surf the Demographic Wave,” International Monetary Fund, March 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2016/03/pdf/thakoor.pdf. 156 Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Somini Sengupta, “Trump Administration Rejects Study Showing Positive Impact of Refugees,” New York Times, September 18, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/politics/refu- 137 Julius Agbor, Olumide Taiwo, and Jessica Smith, “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Youth Bulge: A Demograph- gees-revenue-cost-report-trump.html. ic Dividend or Disaster?,” Brookings Institution, 2012, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/01_youth_bulge_agbor_taiwo_smith.pdf. 157 Ed Stetzer, “Evangelicals, Republicans, and a More Excellent Way on Refugees,” Christianity Today, September 22, 2016, http://www.christianitytoday.com/edstetzer/2016/september/evangelicals-republi- 138 All-Party Parliamentary Group for the British Council, “Building Young People’s Resilience to Vio- cans-and-more-excellent-way-on-refugees.html. lent Extremism in the Middle East and North Africa,” December 2017, ttps://appg.britishcouncil.org/ sites/default/files/3502_bc_appg_inquiry_report_06.pdf?_ga=2.156161016.2130827675.1522865461- 158 “UN sees early warning signs of genocide in CAR,” Al Jazeera, August 7, 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/ 1059395880.1519767458. news/2017/08/sees-early-warning-signs-genocide-car-170807215828039.html. 139 See Famine Early Warning Systems Network: Acute Food Insecurity: Near Term, January 2018, http://www. 159 Stephen Brickey et al., “Oppressed Media Clouds Rohingya Crisis,” CSIS, February 9, 2018, https://journal- fews.net/. ism.csis.org/rohingya/. 140 Manni Crone, Maja Felicia Falkentoft, and Teemu Tammikko, “European Citizens, not Refugees, Behind 160 Edwards, “Forced displacement worldwide at its highest in decades.” Most Terrorist, Attacks in Europe,” Danish Institute for International Studies, June 21, 2017, https://www.diis. 161 See: UNHCR Dadaab Refugee Complex, http://www.unhcr.org/ke/dadaab-refugee-complex. dk/en/research/european-citizens-not-refugees-behind-most-terrorist-attacks-in-europe. 162 See “Fact 2” in the Introduction for more facts on protracted displacement. 141 Jennifer Rankin, “Human traffickers ‘using migration crisis’ to force more people into slavery,” The Guard- 163 “World Employment Social Outlook: Trends for Youth 2016,” International Labour Organization, 2016, http:// 99 ian, May 19, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/19/human-traffickers-using-migration-cri- www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_513739.pdf. sis-to-force-more-people-into-slavery. 164 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision,” 2017, 142 See: UNHCR, “A 10-Point Plan of Action.” https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf. 143 Moises Rendon and Mark L. Schneider, “Venezuela’s Crisis Is Now a Regional Humanitarian Disaster,” CSIS, 165 Zetter, “Protection in Crisis: Forced Migration and Protection in a Global Era.” March 23, 2018, https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelas-crisis-now-regional-humanitarian-disaster. 166 Bruce Katz and Jessica Brandt, “The Refugee Crisis Is a City Crisis,” City Lab, October 27, 2017, https:// 144 Jeremy Slack and Howard Campbell, “On Narco-coyotaje: Illicit Regimes and Their Impacts on the US– www.citylab.com/equity/2017/10/the-refugee-crisis-is-a-city-crisis/544083/. ing in Lebanon, August 16, 2017, http://www.lb.undp.org/content/dam/lebanon/docs/CrisisPreventionRecov- 167 James Surowiecki, “Disaster Economics,” The New Yorker, December 3, 2012, https://www.newyorker.com/ ery/SupplementArticles/16Supp/PEACE%20BUILDING2%2016%20july%202017%20p7.pdf?download. magazine/2012/12/03/disaster-economics. 187 The Conversation, “Central American gangs like MS-13 were born out of failed anti-crime policies,” May 8, 168 Mark Tran, “UN urged to create global fund for disaster prevention,” The Guardian, October 1, 2012, https:// 2017, http://theconversation.com/central-american-gangs-like-ms-13-were-born-out-of-failed-anti-crime-poli- www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/oct/01/call-for-global-fund-disaster-prevention. cies-76554. 169 Cassidy Regan, “Prevention is cheaper than cure,” The Hill, November 4, 2011, http://thehill.com/blogs/con- 188 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, “Criminal Alien Program,” https://www.ice.gov/crimi- 100 gress-blog/economy-a-budget/191853-prevention-is-cheaper-than-cure. nal-alien-program. 170 El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, “Plan of the Alliance for Prosperity in the Northern Triangle: A Road 189 Daniel Denvir, “Deporting people made Central America’s gangs. More deportation won’t help,” Washing- Map,” September 2014, https://cuellar.house.gov/uploadedfiles/plan_of_the_alliance_for_prosperity_in_ ton Post, July 20, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/20”/deport- the_northern_triangle-__a_road_ma....pdf. ing-people-made-central-americas-gangs-more-deportation-wont-help/?utm_term=.f95d7c65cd02. 171 U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Strategy for Central America,” https://www.state.gov/p/wha/rt/strat/index. 190 James Michel, “Managing Fragility and Promoting Resilience to Advance Peace, Security, and Sustainable htm. Development,” CSIS, January 2018, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/180108_ Michel_ManagingFragility_Web.pdf?OLXbMuog_Hr32uJVdQLKZ79kwFD6wr9E. 172 Daniel Runde, Christina Perkins, and Erin Nealer, “Achieving Growth and Security in the Northern Trian- gle of Central America,” CSIS, December 2016, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publica- 191 “Miserable and Useless,” The Economist, March 10, 2014, https://www.economist.com/blogs/bao- tion/161201_Perkins_NorthernTriangle_Web.pdf. bab/2014/03/national-service-eritrea. 173 Dawn Paley, “The Alliance for Prosperity Will Intensify the Central American Refugee Crisis,” The Nation, 192 UN General Assembly, “Report of the Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Democratic People’s December 21, 2016, https://www.thenation.com/article/the-alliance-for-prosperity-will-intensify-the-cen- Republic of Korea,” February 7, 2014, http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/CoIDPRK/Pages/Reportoft- tral-american-refugee-crisis/. heCommissionofInquiryDPRK.aspx. 174 U.S. Department of State “U.S. Strategy for Central America.”, 193 See: Council on Foreign Relations, “Venezuela in Crisis,” https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/venezuela-crisis. 175 UNHCR, “Fact Sheet: Global Forced Displacement,” August 2016, http://www.unhcr.org/579b31e54.pdf. 194 Alexander Ulmer, “A Journey on a Caravan of Misery,” Reuters, March 2, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/ investigates/special-report/venezuela-bus/?mc_cid=dfbef4974b&mc_eid=8ced043524. 176 World Bank, “Africa’s Agriculture and Agribusiness Markets Set to Top US$ One Trillion in 2030,” March 4, 2013, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/03/04/africa-agribusiness-report. 195 Cohen and Deng, “Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal Development.” 177 Kartik Jayaram, Jens Riese, and Sunil Sanghvi, “Africa’s Path to Growth: Sector by Sector,” McKinsey and 196 This report utilizes the more commonly accepted “almost 66 million people” figure while also acknowledg- Global Institute, June 2010, https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/middle-east-and-africa/africas-path- ing that hundreds of millions of people have been forced from home by disasters. Though we consider to-growth-sector-by-sector. them to be forced migrants, the authors did not feel it prudent to include those displaced by disasters in the overall figure used throughout the report. 178 World Bank Group and United Nations, “Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict,” 2017, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28337/211162mm.pdf?se- 197 Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, “Global Estimates 2015: People Displaced by Disasters,” July 21, quence=2&isAllowed=y. 2015, http://www.internal-displacement.org/library/publications/2015/global-estimates-2015-people-displaced-by-disasters/. 179 International Crisis Group, “What’s Driving the Global Refugee Crisis,” September 15, 2016, https://www. crisisgroup.org/global/what-s-driving-global-refugee-crisis. 198 Ibid. 180 James D. Fearon, “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last so Much Longer Than Others?,” Stanford University, Octo- 199 World Bank, “Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration,” Open Knowledge Repository, 2018, ber 23, 2002, https://web.stanford.edu/group/ethnic/workingpapers/dur3.pdf. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29461. 181 Roberta Cohen and Francis M. Deng, “Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal Development,” Brook- 200 Kimberly Curtis, “Four Famines, Explained,” UN Dispatch, March 17, 2017, https://www.undispatch.com/ ings Institution Press, Washington, DC, 1998, https://www.brookings.edu/book/masses-in-flight/. four-famines-explained/. 182 Colin P. Kelley, Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir, “Climate change 201 International Organization for Migration, “Over 2.6 Million Displaced in Lake Chad Basin: IOM,” December in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought,” Proceedings of the National Acade- 9, 2016, https://www.iom.int/news/over-26-million-displaced-lake-chad-basin-iom. my of Sciences, March 17, 2015, http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/11/3241.full.pdf. 202 See: “Lake Chad Basin Crisis—IOM Response (December 2017),” http://www.globaldtm.info/lake-chad-ba- 183 Obi Anyadike, “The Deadly Conflict Tearing Nigeria Apart (and It’s Not Boko Haram),” IRIN, June 13, 2017, sin-crisis-iom-response-december-2017/. https://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2017/06/13/deadly-conflict-tearing-nigeria-apart-and-it%E2%80%99s- 203 Kimberly Curtis, “Climate Refugees, Explained,” UN Dispatch, April 24, 2017, https://www.undispatch.com/ not-boko-haram; Tom Ogwang, “The Root Causes of Conflict in Ivory Coast,” Centre for International climate-refugees-explained/. Governance Innovation, April 1, 2011, https://www.africaportal.org/publications/the-root-causes-of-the- 204 Daniel G. Huber and Jay Gulledge, “Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Understanding the Link and conflict-in-ivory-coast/; and Mike McGovern, “Popular Development Economics: An Anthropologist Managing the Risk,” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, December 2011, https://www.c2es.org/site/ among the Mandarins,” June 2011, 345–55, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ade4/0e8be7f48284e7f6f- assets/uploads/2011/12/white-paper-extreme-weather-climate-change-understanding-link-managing-risk. 101 2d2ca9d673c70b9ead2.pdf. Originally taken from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han- pdf. dle/10986/28337/211162mm.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y. 205 “Displacement caused by conflict and natural disasters, achievements and challenges,” ReliefWeb, January 184 World Bank Group and United Nations, “Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent 10, 2012, https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/displacement-caused-conflict-and-natural-disasters-achieve- Conflict.” ments-and-challenges. 185 Ibid. 206 Philippines’ Department of Social Welfare and Development, International Organization for Migration, 186 Bachir el Khoury, “The Economic Benefits of the Massive Presence of Syrian Refugees,” The Peace Build- Norway’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Council, and SAS, “The Evolving Picture of Displacement in the Wake of Typhoon Haiyan: An Evidence-Based Overview,” May 2014, http://www.iom.int/files/live/sites/iom/ 226 Ibid. files/Country/docs/The-Evolving-Picture-of-Displacement-in-the-Wake-of-Typhoon-Haiyan.pdf. 227 Kimerly Flowers, “The Four Famines: The Alarm Bells Are Ringing, But Who Is Listening?,” CSIS, September 207 CitiesAlliance, “Climate Migration Drives Slum Growth in Dhaka,” 2016, http://www.citiesalliance.org/ 6, 2017, https://www.csis.org/analysis/four-famines-alarm-bells-are-ringing-who-listening. node/420. 228 Ibid. 208 Ibid. 229 The five levels of food insecurity are: minimal, stressed, crisis, emergency, and famine. See: Curtis Kimber- 209 Inter Sector Coordination Group, “Situation Report: Rohingya Refugee Crisis Cox’s Bazar,” January 27, ly, “The ‘Four Famines’ Explained,” March 17, 2017, https://www.undispatch.com/four-famines-explained/. 102 2018, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/180127_weekly_iscg_sitrep_final.pdf. 230 Shannon N. Green and Julie N. Snyder, “Stuck in Limbo: Refugees, Migrants, and the Food Insecure in Djibou- 210 World Commission on Dams, “Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making,” Novem- ti,” CSIS, April 2017, https://www.csis.org/analysis/stuck-limbo-refugees-migrants-and-food-insecure-djibouti. ber 2000, 129, https://www.internationalrivers.org/sites/default/files/attached-files/world_commission_on_ 231 Ibid. dams_final_report.pdf. 232 De Waal, Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine. 211 See: “Case Study Series—Dam Displacement,” April 2017, http://www.internal-displacement.org/library/publications/2017/idmc-case-study-series-dam-displacement. 233 Aizenman, “What Today’s Headlines about Famine Get Wrong.” 212 “Famine” is a specific designation that is commonly misused and overapplied. To be a famine, the follow- 234 See: Acute Food Insecurity Near Term (January 2018), http://www.fews.net/. ing must be true: 2 out every 10,000 people are dying of starvation; over 30 percent of the population 235 “Miserable and Useless,” The Economist, March 10, 2014, https://www.economist.com/blogs/bao- is acutely malnourished; they are limited to no means for earning income; people are getting less than 4 bab/2014/03/national-service-eritrea. liters of clean water per day per person; people have access to only 1 or 2 food groups and an extreme 236 David Smith, “Inside Eritrea: conscription and poverty drive exodus from secretive African state,” The shortage in calories per person per day. Applying the term “famine” to situations that do not meet these Guardian, December 23, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/23/eritrea-conscription-re- specific designations dilutes and devalues the severity of famine. It is worth noting that once famine has pression-and-poverty-recipe-for-mass-emigration. been declared, the humanitarian situation has long before reached crisis levels and forced migration is almost certainly a result and further exacerbator of the famine. See: Chris Hufstader, “What is famine, and 237 See: Mixed Migration Hub, “What is mixed migration?,” http://www.mixedmigrationhub.org/member-agen- how can we stop it?,” Oxfam, November 9, 2017, https://www.oxfamamerica.org/explore/stories/what- cies/what-mixed-migration-is/. is-famine-and-how-can-we-stop-it/; and Nurith Aizenman, “What Today’s Headlines about Famine Get 238 UNHCR, “Mid-Year Trends 2016,” http://www.unhcr.org/statistics/unhcrstats/58aa8f247/mid-year-trends- Wrong,” January 19, 2018, https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/01/19/577659864/author-to- june-2016.html. days-famines-arent-as-bad-as-you-think-they-are. 239 Human Rights First, “Human Trafficking by the Numbers,” January 7, 2017, https://www.humanrightsfirst.org/ 213 World Food Programme, “At the Root of Exodus: Food Security, Conflict and Internation- resource/human-trafficking-numbers. al Migration,” May 2017, https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000015358/download/?_ ga=2.143099957.1080982025.1523972775-1851368877.1523972775. 240 See: “11 Facts about Human Trafficking,” https://www.dosomething.org/us/facts/11-facts-about-human-trafficking. 214 World Health Organization, “Children: reducing mortality,” October 2017, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/ factsheets/fs178/en/. 241 Needs Population and Monitoring and Assessment Capabilities Project, “Rohingya Crisis: Host Communi- ties Review,” January 2018, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20180130_acaps_the- 215 See: The World Bank and Nutrition, http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/nutrition/overview. matic_report_rohingya_crisis_host_communities_review.pdf. 216 See: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarianffairs A (OCHA), “Address and Prevent Famine in Four 242 The Bangladeshi government has also proposed moving 100,000 Rohingya to an island in the Bay of Countries,” https://interactive.unocha.org/emergency/2017_famine/. Bengal, which many believe will be under water due to rising sea levels within a few years. It is un- 217 UNHCR, “Drought, Famine & Displacement Snapshot,” April 26, 2017, https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/ clear whether the proposal is real or is simply an empty threat made for political purposes. See: https:// drought-famine-displacement-snapshot-april-2017. qz.com/1216031/bangladesh-is-building-a-camp-on-bhasan-char-to-house-the-rohingya-from-myan- 218 Mark Yarnell and Alice Thomas, “On the Edge of Disaster: Somalis Forced to Flee Drought and Near Fam- mar/?mc_cid=dfbef4974b&mc_eid=8ced043524. ine Conditions,” Refugees International, https://www.refugeesinternational.org/reports/somaliadroughtand- 243 Key informant interview faminereport. 244 Erol Yayboke, “The Rohingya in Bangladesh: Playing Politics with a People in Crisis,” CSIS, January 29, 219 See: Feed the Future, Kenya, https://feedthefuture.gov/country/kenya. 2018, https://www.csis.org/analysis/rohingya-bangladesh-playing-politics-people-crisis. 220 See: UNHCR, “Dadaab Refugee Complex,” http://www.unhcr.org/ke/dadaab-refugee-complex. 245 USAID, “USAID Administrator Green Announces Launch of Smart Communities Coalition with Private-Sector 221 See: International Food Policy Research Institute, “Conflict and Food Security,” http://www.ifpri.org/topic/ Partners at the World Economic Forum,” Press release, January 24, 2018, https://www.usaid.gov/news-infor- conflict-and-food-security. mation/press-releases/jan-24-2018-usaid-administrator-green-announces-launch-smart-communities. 222 Max Bearak and Laris Karklis, “Starving to Death,” Washington Post, April 11, 2017, https://www.washington- 246 European Commission, “EU Regional Trust Fund in Response to the Syrian Crisis,” https://ec.europa.eu/ post.com/graphics/world/2017-famines/?utm_term=.2793af4e92db. neighbourhood-enlargement/neighbourhood/countries/syria/madad_en. 103 223 See: David Beasley, “The Four Famines: Root Causes and a Multilateral Action Plan,” Senate briefing, 247 Volker Türk, “Open Briefing to UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee,” UNHCR, April 5, 2017, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/071817_Beasley_Testimony.pdf. http://www.unhcr.org/admin/dipstatements/58e35b317/open-briefing-united-nations-security-council-counter-terrorism-committee.html. 224 Alex de Waal, Mass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine (New York: Wiley, December 8, 2017), https://books.google.com/books/about/Mass_Starvation.html?id=9DDaAQAACAAJ. 248 Harry A. Patrinos, “Resilience, refugees, and education for change,” World Bank, February 3, 2016, http:// blogs.worldbank.org/education/resilience-refugees-and-education-change. 225 See: “Remarks by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on U.S.-Africa Relations: A New Framework,” U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia, https://et.usembassy.gov/remarks-secretary-state-rex-tillerson-u-s-africa-rela- 249 Alice Albright, “Educating Refugee Youth Will Make the World Safer and More Prosperous,” News Deeply, tions-new-framework/. November 22, 2016, https://www.newsdeeply.com/refugees/community/2016/11/22/educating-refugee- youth-will-make-the-world-safer-and-more-prosperous. tion_african_union_convention_for_the_protection_and_assistance_of_internally_displaced_persons_in_ 250 European Commission, “EU—Jordan Partnership: The Compact,” 2017, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbour- africa_e.pdf. hood-enlargement/sites/near/files/jordan-compact.pdf. 271 Georgetown University, “Expert Statement on Internally Displaced Persons,” October 2, 2015, https://isim. 251 Center for Global Development and International Rescue Committee, “Refugee Compacts: Addressing the georgetown.edu/sites/isim/files/files/upload/IDP%20-%20Expert%20Statement.pdf. Crisis of Protracted Displacement,” https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/Refugee-Compacts-Report.pdf. 272 Georgetown University, Institute for the Study of International Migration, “Strategic Roundtable on Inter- 252 Lessons for future compacts include: integrate refugee perspectives from the start; address financial barri- nally Displaced Persons,” March 1, 2017, https://georgetown.app.box.com/s/j40d2d80w1dgavszjsn2cere- o121wkx6. 104 ers to school attendance and quality of educational services; and expand—or don’t limit at all—the sectors in which refugees can work, including self-employment. See: Veronique Barbelet, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, 273 International Crisis Group, “Turkey’s Growing Refugee Challenge—Rising Social Tensions,” October 27, and Dina Mansour-Ille, “The Jordan Compact: Lessons learnt and implications for future refugee com- 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/western-europemediterranean/turkey/turkeys-grow- pacts,” ReliefWeb, February https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/jordan-compact-lessons-learnt-and-implica- ing-refugee-challenge-rising-social-tensions. tions-future-refugee-compacts. 274 For more details on these recommendations, see: Global Alliance for Urban Crises, “Forced Displacement 253 Cindy Huang, “New Opportunities for Bangaladeshi Citizens and Rohingya Refugees: A Refugee Compact in Urban Areas: What Needs to be Done,”. https://www.rescue-uk.org/sites/default/files/document/1199/ for Bangladesh,” Center for Global Development, February 7, 2018, https://www.cgdev.org/blog/new-op- forceddisplacementinurbanareasweb.pdf. portunities-bangaladeshi-citizens-and-rohingya-refugees-refugee-compact-bangladesh. 275 OCHA, “World Humanitarian Summit,” May 2016, https://www.unocha.org/legacy/about-us/world-humani- 254 Dasha Afanasieva, “In Turkish sweatshops, Syrian children sew to survive,” Reuters, July 26, 2016, https:// tarian-summit. www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/europe-migrants-turkey-children/. 276 Council on Foreign Relations, “World Humanitarian Summit: One Small Step in a Long Journey,” May 25, 255 See: “Refugees Face Hardship in Turkey’s Farm Camps,” http://www.dw.com/en/refugees-face-hardship-in- 2016, https://www.cfr.org/blog/world-humanitarian-summit-one-small-step-long-journey. turkeys-farm-camps/g-19081838. 277 It is worth noting that, in the course of field research for this report from Detroit to Dhaka and San Diego to 256 Margot Roosevelt, “Why wage theft is common in garment manufacturing,” Orange County Register, No- Stockholm and beyond, the term “private sector” was rarely, if ever, used by those (businesses, financiers, vember 29, 2016, https://www.ocregister.com/2016/11/29/why-wage-theft-is-common-in-garment-manufac- etc.) actually considered to be part of it. Nevertheless, mainly for simplicity’s sake, the term “private sector” turing/. is used here in the broadest possible terms. 257 Cindy Huang, “Why Bangladesh Needs a Refugee Compact and Three Big Ideas to Make It Happen,” Cen- 278 See Airbnb website, https://www.airbnb.com/welcome/refugees. ter for Global Development, February 7, 2018, https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/why-bangladesh- 279 Starbucks, “Starbucks Makes Global Commitment to Hire 10, 000 Refugees by 2022,” https://www.star- needs-refugee-compact-and-three-big-ideas-make-it-happen.pdf. bucks.com/responsibility/community/refugee-hiring. 258 Yayboke, “The Rohingya in Bangladesh: Playing Politics with a People in Crisis.” 280 Emre Eren Korkmaz, “BBC Panorama’s investigation and the Syrian refugee workers in the Turkish garment 259 UNHCR, “Note on Non-Refoulement (Submitted by the High-Commissioner),” August 23, 1977, http://www. industry,” International Migration Institute/University of Oxford, November 3, 2016, https://www.imi.ox.ac.uk/ unhcr.org/en-us/excom/scip/3ae68ccd10/note-non-refoulement-submitted-high-commissioner.html. blog/bbc-panorama2019s-investigation-and-the-syrian-refugee-workers-in-the-turkish-garment-industry. 260 Huang, “New Opportunities for Bangladeshi Citizens and Rohingya Refugees: A Refugee Compact for 281 Huang, “Global Business and Refugee Crises: A Framework for Sustainable Engagement.” Bangladesh.” 282 Ibid. 261 Norwegian Refugee Council, “Global Report on Internal Displacement,” May 2017, http://www.internal-dis- 283 Nirj Deva, “Why There’s Only One Real Solution to the Refugee Crisis,” World Economic Forum, June 15, placement.org/global-report/grid2017/pdfs/2017-GRID.pdf. 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/06/the-real-solution-to-the-refugee-crisis-the-private-sector. 262 Ibid. 284 U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, “Corker, Coons Introduce Bill to Modernize U.S. Approach 263 Catherine Phuong, The International Protection of Internally Displaced Persons (Cambridge: Cambridge to Development Finance,” February 27, 2018, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/cork- University Press, 2004), 212, er-coons-introduce-bill-to-modernize-us-approach-to-development-finance. 264 Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, “Central Africa Republic Mid-Year Update 2017 Country Informa- 285 Daniel Runde and Romina Bandura, “Enterprise Funds for American Soft Power,” CSIS, January 29, 2018, tion,” 2017, http://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/central-african-republic/. https://www.csis.org/analysis/enterprise-funds-american-soft-power. 265 UN Security Council, “Security Council Press Statement on Central African Republic,” February 27, 2018, 286 Key informant interview https://reliefweb.int/report/central-african-republic/security-council-press-statement-central-african-repub- 287 Huang, “Global Business and Refugee Crises: A Framework for Sustainable Engagement.” lic-27. 288 Multiple key informant interviews. 266 Ibid. 289 Sandra Rozo and Hernan Winkler, “How Do Forced Migrants Affect Businesses? The Role of Informality in 267 OCHA, “Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement,” September 2004, http://www.unocha.org/sites/dms/ Developing Countries,” Social Science Research Network, August 8, 2016, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ Documents/GuidingPrinciplesDispl.pdf. papers.cfm?abstract_id=2819225. 105 268 UN General Assembly, “Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 16 September 2005,” October 290 Philippe LeGrain, “Refugees Work: A Humanitarian Investment That Yields Economic Dividends,” Tent 24, 2005, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/generalassembly/docs/global- Foundation, May 2016, https://www.tent.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Tent-Open-RefugeesWork_VFI- compact/A_RES_60_1.pdf. NAL-singlepages.pdf. 269 International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, “Protocol on the Protection and Assistance to Inter- 291 Alex Nowrasteh, Andrew Forrester, and Cole Blondin, “How Mass Immigration Affects Countries with Weak nally Displaced Persons,” November 30, 2006, http://www.refworld.org/pdfid/52384fe44.pdf. Economic Institutions: A Natural Experiment in Jordan,” CATO Institute, March 20, 2018, https://www.cato.org/ 270 African Union, “African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Person publications/working-paper/how-mass-immigration-affects-countries-weak-economic-institutions-natural. in Africa,” October 23, 2009, https://au.int/sites/default/files/treaties/7796-treaty-0039_-_kampala_conven- 292 When IKEA first engaged in Jordan, it was via CSR support “to bring renewable energy to refugee camps 313 Yayboke, “The Rohingya in Bangladesh: Playing Politics with a People in Crisis.” and to provide temporary homes to more than one million Syrian refugees and other populations.” Over 314 Key informant interview. time, it “Transitioned its engagement to include the production of Syrian refugee and Jordanian made rugs, textiles, and other products that are now sold at IKEA stores worldwide.” Huang, “Global Business 315 Key informant interviews. and Refugee Crises,” 10. 316 Internally Displacement Monitoring Centre and Norwegian Refugee Council, “Democratic Republic of the 293 Adam Jelahej, “Empowered Voices: Adam Jelahej,” Get Charged Up, September 27, 2017, http:// Congo: IDPs Pay an Unacceptable Price,” December 21, 2010, http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/ getchargedup.net/empower-refugees/empowered-voices-adam-jelahej/. library/Africa/Democratic-Republic-of-the-Congo/pdf/DRC-Overview-Dec10.pdf. 106 294 For example, the International Labour Organization provides skills testing and certification in Jordan. Inter- 317 UNHCR, “Resettlement,” http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/resettlement.html. national Labour Organization, “Manual on Skills Testing and Certification: Jordan,” 2015, http://www.ilo.org/ 318 This report uses UNHCR’s definition of resettlement: “the transfer of refugees from an asylum country to beirut/publications/WCMS_358358/lang--en/index.htm. another State that has agreed to admit them and ultimately grant them permanent settlement.” UNHCR, 295 American Enterprise Institute, “Europe’s Refugee Crisis: Pressure Points and Solutions,” April 2017, http:// “Resettlement.” www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Europes-Refugee-Crisis.pdf. 319 UNHCR, “Resettlement Data,” 2018, http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/resettlement-data.html. 296 World Bank, “Forcibly Displaced: Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the In- 320 UNHCR, “Resettlement in the United States,” January 2018, http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/resettle- ternally Displaced and Their Hosts,” 2017, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han- ment-in-the-united-states.html. dle/10986/25016/9781464809385.pdf?sequence=11&isAllowed=y. 321 Key informant interviews. 297 Ibid. 322 “Refugees Entering the U.S. Already Face a Rigorous Vetting Process,” New York Times, January 29, 2017, 298 Many of the ideas in the remainder of this Spotlight are adapted with permission from a forthcoming paper https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/29/us/refugee-vetting-process.html. on the role of the private sector by John Kluge and Michael L evett. 323 U.S. Department of State, “Referrals for Refugee Status,” 2016, https://fam.state.gov/fam/09FAM/ 299 Philippe LeGrain, “Refugees Work: A Humanitarian Investment That Yields Economic Dividends,” Tent 09FAM020304.html. Foundation, May 2016, https://www.tent.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Tent-Open-RefugeesWork_VFI- 324 U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Refugee Admissions Program,” https://www.state.gov/j/prm/ra/admissions/. NAL-singlepages.pdf. 325 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, “Voluntary Agencies,” July 17, 2012, https://www.acf.hhs. 300 Selen Ucak, “The Unique Opportunity for S yrian Entrepreneurs: A Conversation with the Syrian Eco- gov/orr/resource/voluntary-agencies. nomic Forum,” Building Markets, November 15, 2016, http://buildingmarkets.org/blogs/syria/2016/11/15/ the-unique-opportunity-for-syrian-entrepreneurs-sef/. 326 Matthew Bell, “Helping Syrian Refugees Is the Christian Thing to Do, Say These Church Leaders,” PRI, September 8, 2016, https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-09-08/helping-syrian-refugees-christian-thing-do-say- 301 Ergulen Toprak, “Chobani’s founder Ulukaya donates $700 million to refugees,” My Reports, May 29, 2015, these-church-leaders. https://myreportsny.com/2015/05/29/chobanis-founder-ulukaya-donates-700-million-to-refugees/. 327 “Integration” means different things in different contexts, and communities take differing approaches to it. 302 “Soros to commit $500m to help refugees and migrants,” Fox News, September 21, 2016, http://www.fox- It is worth considering when “integration” is not even the goal or best option for a resettlement context. In news.com/world/2016/09/21/soros-to-commit-500m-to-help-refugees-and-migrants.html. some cases, “inclusion,” “assimilation,” or “harmonization” might be more effective—and politically palat- 303 Known deals include $30 million via the Small Enterprise Assistance Funds (SEAF), between $2 and $5 able—terms and underlying goals. This report uses the term “integration” generally to signify the process million via Kiva and the Alight Fund’s World Refugee Fund, and $10 million via the Ascend Fund. by which forced migrants settle in new communities permanently. 304 Glaucia Boyer and Yannick DuPont, “The contribution of the private sector to solutions for displacement,” 328 “Resettlement,” http://resettlement.de/en/resettlement-2/. FM Review, May 2018, http://www.fmreview.org/sites/fmr/files/FMRdownloads/en/solutions/boyer-dupont. 329 Yermi Bremer, “Sweden’s refugee policy sets high standards,” Al Jazeera, November 24, 2014, http://www. pdf. aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/11/sweden-refugee-policy-sets-high-standard-2013112485613526863. 305 Key informant interviews. html. 306 Daniel Isenberg, “What an Entrepreneurship Ecosystem Actually Is,” Harvard Business Review, May 12, 330 Will Jones, Alexander Teytelboym, and Dalibor Rlhac, “Europe’s Refugee Crisis Pressure Points and 2014, https://hbr.org/2014/05/what-an-entrepreneurial-ecosystem-actually-is. Solutions,” American Enterprise Institute, April 2017, http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Eu- 307 Daniel Isenberg, “The Big Idea: How to Start an Entrepreneurial Revolution,” Harvard Business Review, ropes-Refugee-Crisis.pdf. June 2010, https://hbr.org/2010/06/the-big-idea-how-to-start-an-entrepreneurial-revolution. 331 Immigration Policy Lab, “Harnessing Big Data to Improve Refugee Resettlement,” https://www.immigra- 308 The U.S. fundraising arm of the United Nations Refugee Agency. tionlab.org/project/harnessing-big-data-to-improve-refugee-resettlement/. 309 Talea Miller, “Kiva launches multi-million dollar World Refugee Fund on World Refugee Day,” Kiva, 2017, 332 Sarah Holder, “The Algorithm That Can Resettle Refugees,” CityLab, February 9, 2018, https://www.citylab. https://blog.kiva.org/kivablog/2017/06/20/kiva-launches-multi-million-dollar-world-refugee-fund-on-world- com/equity/2018/02/the-algorithm-that-can-resettle-refugees/552755/. refugee-day. 333 Migration Policy Institute, “Ten Facts about U.S. Refugee Resettlement,” October 2015, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/ten-facts-about-us-refugee-resettlement. 310 Jane Arraf, “Along Syria-Jordan Border, Refugees Struggle at a Camp Aid Workers Can’t Visit,” NPR, March 107 20, 2017, https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/03/20/520857305/along-syria-jordan-border-refu- 334 Arab American and Chaldean Council, http://www.myacc.org/. gees-struggle-at-a-camp-aid-workers-cant-visit. 335 Yermi Brenner, “Sweden’s Refugee Policy Sets High Standards,” Al Jazeera, November 24, 311 UNHCR, “Resettlement in the United States,” January 2018, http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/resettle- 2013, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/11/sweden-refugee-policy-sets-high-stan- ment-in-the-united-states.html. dard-2013112485613526863.html. 312 “Turkish border cities host almost half of Syrian refugees,” Daily Sabah, January 8, 2018, https://www.daily- 336 One example of many: Tobias Buck, “German Policy Flex Muscles to Calm Cottbus Refugee Tensions,” sabah.com/turkey/2018/01/09/turkish-border-cities-host-almost-half-of-syrian-refugees. Financial Times, February 2, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/b97b0fc2-0753-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5. 337 “Reality Check: is Malmo the ‘rape capital’ of Europe,” BBC News, February 24, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/ 358 Milena Stefanova, “Eight countries eligible for new IDA financing to support refugees and hosts,” World news/uk-politics-39056786. Bank, http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/eight-countries-eligible-for-new-ida- 338 “Interior Ministry rejects claims of rising crime rate among Syrians in Turkey,” Daily Sabah, July 5, 2017, financing-to-support-refugees-and-hosts. https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2017/07/05/interior-ministry-rejects-claims-of-rising-crime-rate-among- 359 World Bank, “Forcibly Displaced. Towards a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the In- syrians-in-turkey. ternally Displaced and their Hosts,” 2017, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han- 339 Aarhus University, Denmark, “Radicalization among Young Muslims in Aarhus,” January 2010, http://www. dle/10986/25016/9781464809385.pdf?sequence=11&isAllowed=y. 108 ps.au.dk/fileadmin/site_files/filer_statskundskab/subsites/cir/radicalization_aarhus_FINAL.pdf. 360 Center for Global Development and International Rescue Committee, “Refugee Compacts. Addressing the 340 International Rescue Committee, “Rescuing Futures: Europe’s Vital Role in Refugee Resettlement,” Novem- Crisis of Protracted Displacement,” 2017, https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/Refugee-Compacts-Re- ber 2016, https://www.rescue-uk.org/sites/default/files/document/1224/rescuingfutures-europesvitalrolein- port.pdf. refugeeresettlement.pdf. 361 United Nations Human Rights, “Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons,” 341 Ibid. http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/IDPersons/Pages/IDPersonsIndex.aspx. 342 Alexandra Zavis, “The Desperate Trek: Haitians, Africans and Asians. The Sharp Rise in non-Latin-American 362 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, World Disasters Report 2012, 2012, Migrants trying to cross into the U.S. from Mexico,” LA Times, December 22, 2016, http://www.latimes.com/ http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Documents/Secretariat/2012_WDR_Full_Report.pdf. projects/la-fg-immigration-trek-america-tijuana/. 363 See OHCHR Migration and Human Rights: http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Migration/Pages/MigrationAnd- 343 Brookings Institution, “The refugee crisis is a city crisis,” November 3, 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/ HumanRightsIndex.aspx. blog/metropolitan-revolution/2017/11/03/the-refugee-crisis-is-a-city-crisis/ 364 Ibid. 344 Global Alliance for Urban Crises, “Forced Displacement in Urban Areas, What Needs to Be Done,” https:// 365 International Organization for Migration, “IOM Becomes a Related Organization to the UN,” Press release, www.rescue-uk.org/sites/default/files/document/1199/forceddisplacementinurbanareasweb.pdf. July 25, 2016, https://www.iom.int/news/iom-becomes-related-organization-un. 345 World Bank, “Forcibly Displaced. Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the 366 International Justice Resource Center, “Overview of the Human Rights Framework,” http://www.ijrcenter. Internally Displaced, and Their Hosts,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han- org/ihr-reading-room/overview-of-the-human-rights-framework/. dle/10986/25016/9781464809385.pdf?sequence=11&isAllowed=y 367 See OHCHR’s Recommended Principles and Guidelines on Human Rights at International Borders: http:// 346 CityLab, “The Refugee Crisis Is A City Crisis,” October 27, 2017, https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/10/the- www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Migration/Pages/InternationalBorders.aspx. refugee-crisis-is-a-city-crisis/544083/. 368 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, “Global Report on Internal Displacement 2016,” http://www.inter- 347 This important role and potential for impact has been recognized by cities around the world, who collec- nal-displacement.org/globalreport2016/. tively petitioned to be included alongside countries in the UN-led global compact processes for refugees 369 Stephen Castles, “Confronting the Realities of Forced Migration,” Migration Policy Institute, May 1, 2004, and migrants. Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, “U.S. Cities Want to Join U.N. Migration Talks That Trump Boycot- ted,” Foreign Policy, December 5, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/05/u-s-cities-want-to-join-u-n-mi- https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/confronting-realities-forced-migration. gration-talks-that-trump-boycotted/. 370 See OHCHR Question and Answers about IDPs: http://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/IDPersons/Pages/Issues. 348 UN Habitat, “Migration and Inclusive Cities: A Guide for Arab City Leaders,” https://unhabitat.org/books/ aspx. migration-and-inclusive-cities-a-guide-for-arab-city-leaders/. 371 IOM, “International Migration Law: Glossary on Migration,” 2004, http://www.iomvienna.at/sites/default/ 349 Lisa Reudenbach, “Five Ways Cities Benefit from Migration,” Meeting of the Minds, May 11, 2015, http:// files/IML_1_EN.pdf. meetingoftheminds.org/five-ways-cities-benefit-from-migration-13291. 372 Walter Kalin,“Displacement Caused by the Effects of Climate Change: Who Will Be Affected and What 350 “Turkey’s Kilis: A rare example of refugee integration,” Al Jazeera, May 18, 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/ Are the Gaps in the Normative Framework for Their Protection?,” Brookings Institution, October 10, 2008, indepth/opinion/2016/05/turkey-kilis-rare-refugee-integration-160511102644814.html. https://www.brookings.edu/research/displacement-caused-by-the-effects-of-climate-change-who-will-be- affected-and-what-are-the-gaps-in-the-normative-framework-for-their-protection/. 351 Key informant interviews. 373 UNHCR, “UNHCR viewpoint: ‘Refugee’ or ‘migrant’—Which is right?” July 11, 2006, http://www.unhcr.org/ 352 Some ideas are unique to this report and others elevate (and cite) good ideas proposed by others. en-us/news/latest/2016/7/55df0e556/unhcr-viewpoint-refugee-migrant-right.html. 353 Based on a Heritage Foundation recommendation. Steven Bucci and David Inserra, “The Rising Tide of 374 See UNHCR Note on Non-Refoulment, 1977: http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/excom/scip/3ae68ccd10/ Migrants and Refugees: Due Diligence and Adherence to Law Required,” Heritage Foundation, October note-non-refoulement-submitted-high-commissioner.html. 20, 2015, https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/the-rising-tide-migrants-and-refugees-due-diligence- and-adherence-law-required. 375 See the UNHCR 1951 Refugee Convention: http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/1951-refugee-convention.html. 354 Yayboke, “The Strategic Implications of Exiting the Global Migration Compact Process.”. 376 Library of Congress, “Refugee Law and Policy: Turkey,” https://www.loc.gov/law/help/refugee-law/turkey. php. 355 Huang, “New Opportunities for Bangladeshi Citizens and Rohingya Refugees: A Refugee Compact for 377 United Nations, “Refugees and Migrants,” http://refugeesmigrants.un.org/declaration. Bangladesh.” 109 356 World Bank, “Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict,” 2018, https://open- 378 Yayboke, “The Strategic Implications of Exiting the Global Migration Compact Process.” knowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337. 379 “The Global Compact on Refugees: Zero Draft,” http://www.unhcr.org/5a72c5c910. 357 World Peace Foundation, “Walking in the shadow of the ‘state’? A review of the joint World Bank—United 380 Global Compact for Migration, “Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration: Zero Draft,” Unit- Nations report—Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict,” April 2, 2018, ed Nations, February 5, 2018, http://refugeesmigrants.un.org/sites/default/files/180205_gcm_zero_draft_fi- https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2018/04/02/walking-in-the-shadow-of-the-state-a-review-of- nal.pdf. the-joint-world-bank-united-nations-report-pathways-for-peace-inclusive-approaches-to-preventing-vio- 381 Yayboke, “The Strategic Implications of Exiting the Global Migration Compact Process.” lent-conflic/. 382 Ibid. 383 IDMC, “Thematic Series. The Invisible Majority,” November 2017, http://www.internal-displacement.org/assets/publications/2017/20171113-idmc-policy-brief-global-compact-refugees.pdf. 384 Michael Clemens, “Cultivating a New Bargain on Migration: Three Recommendations for the Global Im- pact,” Center for Global Development, February 12, 2018, https://www.cgdev.org/blog/cultivating-new-bargain-migration-three-recommendations-global-compact. 110 GRAPHICS SOURCES FROM PAGES 18–19 Global ODA Spending by Category: http://www.oecd.org/dac/development-aid-rises-again-in-2016-but-flows-to-poorest-countries-dip.htm In-Donor Refugee Costs: http://www.oecd.org/dac/development-aid-rises-again-in-2015-spending-on-refugees-doubles.htm Spending on Forced Migration Compared to Global Health: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/policy_report/2017/IHME_FGH_2016_ Technical-Report.pdf; https://vizhub.healthdata.org/fgh/; http://www.ifrc.org/en/publications-and-reports/world-disasters-report/ Protracted Refugee Situations by Duraction: http://www.refworld.org/docid/57678f3d4.html Refugees Hosted as a Share of National Pop.: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-countries-of-asylum-for-migrants/; http://www.unhcr.org/ globaltrends2016/ Displaced Persons Percentages: UNHCR, “Global Trends, Forced Displacement in 2014,” 2014, http://www.unhcr.org/556725e69.html#_ga=1.1349209 48.447548864.1453716833. U.S. Refugee Intake by Thousands of People: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/refugees-asylees Projected Global Displacement Scenarios by Millions of People: http://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2016/

GRAPHIC SOURCES FROM PAGES 18–19 https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2017/06/17/why-migration-from-west-africa-may-start-to-slow http://www.theyucatantimes.com/2016/06/violence-and-extortion-drive-central-americans-toward-u-s-via-mexico/ https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150919-data-points-refugees-migrants-maps-human-migrations-syria-world/ http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/02/28/global-migrant-stocks/ http://migrationsmap.net/#/USA/arrivals http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article190769629.html https://missingmigrants.iom.int/mixed-migration-routes-europe

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