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NK Plan 2016-19

STEEPLED Data Evidence October 2015 Contents Introduction ...... 3 Social ...... 4 Housing Availability and Costs ...... 4 Social Housing Demand and Supply ...... 5 Prevention and Early Intervention Agenda ...... 8 Social Mobility, Inequality and Deprivation...... 9 Health ...... 10 Cost of Living ...... 13 Crime Rates and Perceptions ...... 14 Ethnic Minority Inequalities ...... 14 Affordability of Child Care ...... 16 Social Isolation / Loneliness ...... 16 Mental Health ...... 18 Technological ...... 20 Changing Communication Channels ...... 20 Access to High Speed Broadband (Fixed Line) ...... 22 Mobile Coverage ...... 25 Economic ...... 28 Road Infrastructure ...... 28 Growth Industries ...... 29 Financial Resilience ...... 31 Energy Availability and Costs ...... 32 Unemployment ...... 32 Building Costs Inflation ...... 33 Infrastructure – Public Transport Provision ...... 33 Loss of Highly Qualified Young People ...... 35 Cost Premium for Rural Service Delivery (Public and Private Sectors) ...... 36 Environmental ...... 37 Climate Change – Carbon Reductions ...... 37 Energy Efficiency of Buildings (Domestic and Commercial) ...... 38 Energy Performance Certificates ...... 38 Quality of Environment ...... 40 Land Use...... 41 Demographics ...... 42 Population Growth ...... 42 Ageing Population ...... 42 Increasing Diversity of Population ...... 43 Increase in Dementia ...... 43

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Introduction

This reports sets out the evidence base established during early Summer 20015 using a S.T.E.E.P.L.E.D analysis. This stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, Legislative, Ethical, Demographics, with an assessment of the district being made against these eight elements.

This report provides the detailed analysis for each element, along with an assessment of how the district compares with the rest of England – with this comparison being against other district councils and all types of unitary authorities (thus including metropolitan borough councils and London Boroughs). The report has used nationally published statistics to assess the position of the District wherever possible.

The report was compiled during late Spring / Early Summer 2015 and will be updated regularly as new information becomes available. The most important of these being the new Index of Deprivation released by the ONS on Sep 30th 2015. Once this information is released it will be analysed, the results added to this report, with the new version being available in November 2015

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Social

Housing Availability and Costs National Issue

For decades, there have not been enough homes to meet the needs of our growing and ageing population. From 2009 to 2010, only 115,000 new-builds were completed in England – fewer than any year in peace time since the 1920s and nearly a quarter of a million homes in England have stood empty for more than 6 months.

The housing market is also one of the biggest casualties of the 2008 global credit crunch and the government’s priority has been to rectify a situation where lenders couldn’t lend, so builders couldn’t build and buyers couldn’t buy.

The government wants builders, investors and local councils to increase the supply of both new-builds and repurposed empty homes.

Further reading on gov.uk

Local Picture

House prices and rent in North Kesteven is still significantly below the English average at £136,500 compared to £180,000. However, when the relatively low local earnings are taken into account, it is harder for the lowest paid to get on the housing ladder - the cheapest 25% of houses in North Kesteven cost 7x the salary of the lowest 25% of earners. Although this ratio is higher than that of England (at 6.45x), the District still ranks within the top 50% of local authorities.

Over the last 10 years, house prices have risen faster than wages in the District, but to a lesser extent as England as a whole. This means that housing is becoming even less affordable, just at a slower rate than most of the Country.

North Kesteven is the 11th highest local authority for under occupation across all tenures. Nearly 50% of households have two or more extra bedrooms and just 1% of households required an extra bedroom – the lowest proportion in the Country. There are also 421 long-term vacant properties across all tenures.

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs)

Average House Price B 197 £136,500 £180,000 (2013)

Average weekly rent 62 local authority B (out of £73.66 £82.44 (2013/14) 86)

Average weekly rent - private registered A 211 £83.61 £92.30 providers (2014)

Housing Affordability – lowest quartile housing B 165 7.05x 6.45x cost / earnings ratio (2013) Housing Affordability Change 2003-13 B 200 +0.62x +1.22x (lowest quartile)(2013)

Under occupancy – 2 or more extra bedrooms D 11 47.9% 34.3% (2011)

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Overcrowding – 1 more bedroom needed A 270 1% 3.9% (2011) Overcrowding – 2 or more bedrooms needed A 266 0.1% 0.7% (2011) Long-Term Vacant Properties (all tenures) B 142 421 216,050 (2013)

Social Housing Demand and Supply National Issue

There are 1.8 million households on waiting lists for social housing. We must ensure people can get accommodation that meets their needs both in terms of quality and cost.

Surveys and research consistently show that most people want to own their own home. But with house prices rising rapidly, many potential home buyers have not been able to afford it.

The Government has encouraged more tenants to exercise their Right to Buy their council house by increasing the maximum discount that buyers can get off the market value of their home, to £77,000 outside London and £102,700 in London.

Further reading on social housing policy Further reading on homebuying policy

Local Picture

Even though NKDC has a relatively large housing stock, the proportion of all social housing is lower than the vast majority of local authorities. NKDC Housing Stock Summary

Houses Bungalows Flats Maisonettes Bedsit Total Apr-15 1773 1642 441 13 1 3870 Apr-14 1760 1632 424 13 1 3830 Apr-13 1756 1633 431 13 1 3834 Apr-12 1771 1629 416 12 1 3829 Apr-11 1761 1622 416 12 1 3812

This is due to Housing Associations owning far less properties than average. Overall, 10.3% of dwellings are socially rented compared to 17.5% of dwellings in England.

North Kesteven has seen a lower than average net change in housing stock even though it performs in the top 50% of local authorities for council house building. This is because some local authorities have recently built a large number of homes. During 2013/14, there was an increase of 6.3% in housing stock compared to an 8.1% increase across England.

The Right-to-Buy scheme has had a small impact on this net change with a total of 0.3% of the housing stock sold to tenants during 2013/14. However, the small numbers and timeframe used in this analysis means there may have been larger proportions sold in previous years.

North Kesteven District Council successfully bid into the Right to Buy Social Mobility Fund and will receive £100,000 to help tenants buy their own home. The Fund and the possibility of extending the Right to Buy scheme to Housing Association stock may lead to future increases of social housing sales. Conversely, there has been a recent call by the Chartered Institute of Housing to exclude rural areas (less than 3,000 inhabitants) from Right to Buy to protect the supply of affordable homes in rural areas.

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The Council performs well with average re-let time when compared to other local authorities. In 2013, the time taken to re-let a property was 23 days.

Overall, 2.8% of households were on the housing waiting list in 2014. This is significantly lower than England at 5.9% of households and places North Kesteven among the 25% authorities with the lowest waiting lists in the Country. This is not down to rental prices - NKDC charges almost £10 less a week than average at £73.66 during 2013/14.  Between 2010 and the end of March 2015 NKDC delivered 112 new homes.  In terms of programmed schemes NKDC plan:

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Total Completions 55 46 70 58 68 297

As can be seen in the next figure, there is more demand for council housing to the North of the District in the North Hykeham/Waddington area than to the South of the District

Demand for council homes within North Kesteven

Source: NKDC, 2014

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The Council recommenced building council homes in 2010 and is close to completing its 100th new home. The aim is to deliver an average of 50 new homes a year. Recently the Council has built to its acclaimed NK Fabric First standard, a building standard above the Building Regulations 2010. However a change contained in the Building Regulations 2013 has resulted in some elements of the NK Fabric First standard being more or less synonymous with the new regulations.

The Government is seeking to drive up building standards in the area of fuel and power conservation through the new enhanced Part L Building Regulations 2013 (implemented 2014). The thermal requirements contained in the new standards have now largely caught up with those in original NK Fabric First. The introduction of the new Building Regulation standard presents an opportunity to review the Council’s Fabric First standard and its approach to new build standards.

Number of Properties Built by Specification Standard from

2010 - 2015 within NKDC

House 2

Flat 6

NK Fabric First Fabric NK Bungalow 3

House 36

Flat 6

3 Code Bungalow 9 + First Fabric NK

House 29

Flat 2 4 Code Bungalow 11

3 Flat 24

Code

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs) Proportion of all dwellings owned by B 163 7.9% 7.2% Local Authority (2013)

Proportion of all dwellings that are D 39 10.3% 17.5% socially rented (2013)

Proportion of 202 households in private A (out of 2.8% 5.9% sector on housing 268) waiting list (2014)

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90 Net change in LA B (out of +6.3% +8.1% housing stock 2013-14 174) 90 Average re-let time B (out of 23 days - (2013) 137) Proportion of stock lost 130 under Right-to-Buy B (out of 0.3% 1.7% 2013-14 174)

Prevention and Early Intervention Agenda National Issue

Early intervention involves taking action as soon as possible to tackle problems that have already emerged. Although an early intervention approach could be used at any time of life, it is usually adopted by services from conception to early adulthood.

Its purpose is to reduce the likelihood of poor long-term outcomes for children, their families - as well as society at large - whilst being cost-effective. Although it is not the same as prevention, in reality early intervention and prevention programmes and strategies often co-exist.

Early intervention has to start early - once problems have begun to develop but before they get too serious. It requires good assessment, and when it is done effectively it creates a comprehensive and purposeful response that takes a multilevel, holistic approach. It is a joined up process that focuses on working with children and families rather than doing things to them.

Further reading on Early Intervention Foundation website Further reading on gov.uk - Early Intervention Further reading on gov.uk – Youth Crime Prevention

Local Picture

There are a very low number of anti-social behaviour incidents recorded in North Kesteven when compared to the County or Country. In 2014/15, there were 18.1 incidents per 1,000 population compared to 29.3 incidents in Lincolnshire as a whole – the lowest of all Districts in the County.

Inconsiderate behaviour is by far the most common type of anti-social behaviour, with 697 incidents recorded. Other common types of incident include malicious communications (301n), neighbours (301n) and vehicle nuisance (155n).

Although the recorded level of ASB incidents is low, 24% of people in Lincolnshire said that they witnessed or experienced an incident of anti-social behaviour in 2013/14.

Smoking whilst pregnant and under-18 conceptions in North Kesteven are slightly worse than the local authority median average, whilst the number of people breastfeeding and alcohol specific hospital stays for the under 18s are better than average.

Source: Lincolnshire County Council, 2015

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs)

Anti-Social Behaviour 29 30 Incidents per 1000 A (out of (Lincs 37 population (2013/14) 38) Force)

Experience/Witness 28 24% any Anti-Social B (out of (Lincs 28% Behaviour (2013/14) 38) Force)

8 | P a g e Experience/Witness 17 9% drink related behaviour C (out of (Lincs 10% (2013/14) 38) Force)

Experience/witness 36 4% groups hanging around A (out of (Lincs 9% the streets (2013/14) 38) Force)

Alcohol-specific 182 hospital stays (under B (out of 30.5 44.9 18) (Per 100,000 pop, 262) 2010-2013) Under-18 conception rate per 1,000 females C 131 25.6 27.7 aged 15-17 (crude rate) 2012 Note:

There are restrictions on publication of Home Office statistics at Local Authority level. For ranking purposes, force level data is used instead of local authority level.

Social Mobility, Inequality and Deprivation National Issue

In a fair society, what counts towards your success is how hard you work and the skills and talents you have - not who your parents are or where you come from. Children from poorer homes are far less likely to achieve their potential than other children, and who your parents are appears to have a bigger impact on your future in the UK than in many other countries.

Poverty, as measured by a household’s income relative to the national average, is often a symptom of deeper, more complex problems. Many of these problems are passed on from one generation to the next.

For example, there are almost 300,000 households in the UK where none of the adults has ever worked, and 300,000 children have parents with serious drug problems. Children in families affected by these problems have reduced chances of success in their own lives.

To make a real and lasting difference, people need help to change the course of their lives. Problems that cause people to end up living in poverty need to be dealt with, rather than dealing with people’s incomes in isolation.

Read more on gov.uk - social mobility Read more on gov.uk - reducing poverty and improving social justice

Local Picture

Deprivation in North Kesteven is low. In 2010, the Indices of Deprivation showed that areas within North Kesteven were among the 20% most deprived in England. We also know that we have lower than average levels of statutory homelessness, long-term unemployment and relatively good GCSE pass rates.

However, pockets of deprivation remain. The rural nature of the District means that these pockets – sometimes just a few streets – can be next to much affluent areas and therefore are not recorded by the Indices which uses larger geographical boundaries. We must be careful to not be complacent and make sure that people are not adversely affected by welfare reforms and receive their financial support entitlements.

Within North Kesteven there are two food banks, one in Sleaford and one in North Hykeham. The Sleaford Food Bank covers the whole district and delivers to all rural locations that require support. The Sleaford Food Bank operates on a referral system from over 30 professional support agencies. The Sleaford Food Bank reports that they have noticed that their numbers are dropping year on year. They also report the food bank is seeing a larger percentage of referrals coming from households who are in work, but the hours of work are insufficient (mainly based from zero contract hours).

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NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (324 Authorities) Population living in 20% most deprived areas in A =324 0.0% 20.4% England (2013)

% children (under 16) in families receiving A 272 10.3% 19.2% means-tested benefits & low income (2012) Statutory homelessness (Crude B 203 1.1 2.3 rate per 1,000 households, 2013/14)

GCSE achieved (5A*-C inc. Eng & Maths) A 249 61.9% 56.8% (2012/13)

Long-term unemployment (Crude B 212 3.3% 7.1% rate per 1,000 pop aged 16-64, 2014) Notes: Deprivation data due to be released Summer 2015 Health National Issue

In England, most people are overweight or obese. This includes 64% of adults and 28% of children aged between 2 and 15. People who are overweight have a higher risk of getting type 2 diabetes, heart disease and certain cancers. Excess weight can also make it more difficult for people to find and keep work, and it can affect self-esteem and mental health.

What happens to children before they are born and in their early years can affect their health and opportunities later in life. For example, babies that are breastfed have less chance of getting infections or of becoming obese and therefore developing type 2 diabetes and other illnesses when they get older. And those who grow up in a safe environment and have a healthy relationship with their parents are more likely to do better as they go through life.

Smoking causes more preventable deaths than anything else - nearly 80,000 in England during 2011. There’s also an impact on smokers’ families: each year, UK hospitals see around 9,500 admissions of children with illnesses caused by secondhand smoke.

Just like the rest of us, older people want to enjoy good health and remain independent for as long as possible. As people get older remaining independent often depends on health and social care services being effective enough to support them.

Read more on gov.uk - reducing obesity Read more on gov.uk - healthy start Read more on gov.uk - smoking Read more on gov.uk – National Service Framework: Older People

Local Picture

North Kesteven residents tend to live longer than the English average and this might be, in part, to do with the healthier lifestyles our residents enjoy. They have higher than average levels of physical activity and lower than average alcohol and illegal drug abuse.

However, even though physical activity levels are relatively high, adult obesity is an issue and is worse than the English average. 25% of adults in North Kesteven are obese and a further 40.6% are overweight. Diabetes, an obesity linked disease, is also more prevalent. 6.6% of adults have diabetes compared to 6.0% in England. Interestingly, a lower than average children are obese - 15.8% compared to 18.9% in England.

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Smoking rates are similar to the rest of the Country and breastfeeding rates are good. Excess winter deaths in older people are low, but hip fractures are slightly more likely to happen in those aged over 65 years.Road deaths are significantly higher than average. Between 2010 and 2012, 225 people were killed or seriously injured on roads in North Kesteven, placing the District in the worst performing 25% of all English local authorities for major road accidents.

General Health East North Kesteven Lincolnshire Midlands England Count % % % % Very Good Health 49563 46.0% 43.0% 45.3% 47.2% Good Health 37834 35.1% 36.0% 35.1% 34.2% Fair Health 14941 13.9% 15.1% 14.0% 13.1% Bad Health 4198 3.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% Very Bad Health 1230 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% All Usual Residents 107766 - - - - Source: General Health, 2011 (QS302EW), Mar11, Office for National Statistics

Long-Term Health Problem or Disability East North Kesteven Lincolnshire Midlands England Count % % % % Day-to-Day Activities Limited a Lot 9108 8.5% 9.4% 8.7% 8.3% 10.7 Day-to-Day Activities Limited a Little 11496 % 10.9% 9.9% 9.3% 80.9 Day-to-Day Activities Not Limited 87162 % 79.6% 81.4% 82.4% All Usual Residents 107766 - - - - Source: Long-Term Health Problem or Disability, 2011 (QS303EW), Mar11, Office for National Statistics

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (324 Authorities)

People reporting bad or B 171 5.0% 5.5% very bad health (2011)

Obese adults (2012) C 101 24.9% 23.0%

Obese and overweight C 147 65.5% 63.8% adults (2012)

Obese children (Year 6) A 254 15.3% 19.1% (2013/14)

Mean number of 305 decayed teeth at age 5 A (out of 0.17 0.73 (2012) 310)

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% of all mothers who 138 breastfeed their babies B (out of 77.8% 73.9% in the first 48hrs after 229) delivery (2013/14) Percentage of Physically Active Adults A 277 62.1% 56.0% (2013)

% of women who 203 smoke at time of B (out of 10.9% 12.0% delivery (2013/14) 311)

Smoking prevalence B 180 17.3% 18.4% (over 18s, 2012)

Hospital stays for Alcohol Related Harm B 214 566 645 (per 100,000 pop, 2012/13) Opiate and Crack Cocaine use (per 1,000 A 324 1.4 8.4 pop, 2011/12)

Recorded diabetes D 77 6.9% 6.2% (aged 17+, 2013/14)

New STI (exc Chlamydia aged under A 288 424 832 25) 2013

Long-term limiting health problem or 130 disability that affects C (out of 8.5% 8.3% daily activities a lot 326) (2011) Hip fractures in people aged 65 and over B 191 564 580 2013/14

Excess winter deaths (three year) (Aug 2010 A 264 14.2 17.4 - Jul 2013)

Life expectancy at birth B 239 80.8 79.4 (Male, 2011-13)

Life expectancy at birth B 190 83.7 83.1 (Female, 2011-2013)

Under 75 mortality rate: cardiovascular (per 100,000 population A 273 58.1 78.2 aged under 75, 2011- 2013) Under 75 mortality rate: cancer (per 100,000 B 203 133.8 144.4 population aged under 75, 2011-2013)

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Killed and seriously injured on roads (per D 54 56.7 39.7 100,000 pop, 2011-13)

Cost of Living National Issue

In recent years, the cost of living has outpaced earnings. Furthermore, UK households with the lowest income faced the fastest living rise.

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that households in the bottom 10% of the income scale had an average annual inflation rate of 2.9% each year from January 2003 to October 2014. This compared with an inflation rate of 2.6% among the wealthiest 10% of UK households

Local Picture

Full-time employees in North Kesteven earn an average of £500 a week. This is slightly lower than the English average of £524. However, the wage gap has got smaller – over the last 10 years the median full-time earnings in North Kesteven has increased by 37% compared to 23% in England.

When looking at our lowest paid full-time workers, the bottom 10% of earners are paid less than £270.50 per week. The current living wage is £290.45. This means that over 10% of our residents in full-time work earn less than the living wage. Weekly household expenditure and the average Council Tax are slightly lower than the Country as a whole.

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (201 Shire Districts) Median weekly full-time 116 earnings by residence C (out of £500 £524 (2014) 268) Increase in median full- 258 time earnings over last A (out of 37% 23% 10 years (2004-2014) 268) Weekly full-time 42 earnings by residence - D (out of £271 £290 10th percentile* (2014) 268)

Weekly full-time earnings by residence B 195 29% 25% over last 10 years - 10th percentile* (2004-2014) Weekly household 6 £55.40 expenditure on food B (out of East £56.90 and non-alcohol 9) Midlands (Region) (2011-2013)

Average Council Tax B 144 £1,502 £1,484 Band D (2015/16)

Average Council Tax Change (2014/15 to D 26 1.98% 1.1% 2015/16) *The 10% lowest paid

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Crime Rates and Perceptions National Issue

In recent years, the cost of living has outpaced earnings. Furthermore, UK households with the lowest income faced the fastest living rise.

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that households in the bottom 10% of the income scale had an average annual inflation rate of 2.9% each year from January 2003 to October 2014. This compared with an inflation rate of 2.6% among the wealthiest 10% of UK households

Local Picture

NKDC continues to be one of the safest Districts in the country. Crime rates over the last few years have continued to drop. In the last year overall crime across Lincolnshire fell by 2.7%, which represents thousands fewer victims of crime.

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (324 Authorities) Violent Crime (Crude rate per 1,000 pop, A 324 2.8 11.1 2013/14)

Burglary (Per 1,000 A 284 10.2 17.6 Pop) (March 2015)

Criminal Damage and Arson Offences (Per A 323 9.3 21.4 1,000 pop) (March 2015)

Ethnic Minority Inequalities

Ethnic Group East North Kesteven Lincolnshire Midlands England Count % % % % White British 103343 95.9% 93.0% 85.4% 79.8% Other White 1906 1.8% 4.0% 3.2% 4.6% White Irish 512 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% Mixed: White and Asian 256 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% Mixed: White and Black Caribbean 242 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% Other Asian 221 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% Indian 217 0.2% 0.3% 3.7% 2.6% Asian/Asian British 215 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% Other Mixed 202 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% African 108 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% Caribbean 101 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% Any Other Ethnic Group 96 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% Mixed:White and Black African 91 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% White Gypsy or Irish Traveller 74 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bangladeshi 68 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% Arab 43 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Other Black 42 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% Pakistani 29 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 2.1%

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All Usual Residents 107766 - - - - Source: Ethnic Group, 2011 (QS201EW), Mar11, Office for National Statistics

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs) Home ownership - Increased likelihood if B 156 +29% +52% White British (2011)

Own detached house - Increased likelihood if B 166 +12% +85% White British (2011)

Overcrowding – +likelihood to need 1+ C 102 +237% +381% extra bedrooms if not White British (2011) Not worked/Long-term unemployed - A 208 -27% +139% increased likelihood if not White British (2011) Semi/Routine Jobs – increased likelihood if D 63 +14% +30% not White British (2011)

Table above shows increased likelihood and not percentage difference i.e. if 20% of White British owned a car and 10% of all other ethnic groups owned a car, you are 100% more likely to own a car if you are White British.

No disadvantage in health found – long-term health problems in all but two local authority areas are more prevalent in White British than other ethnic groups. Possible link to age but not investigated. In North Kesteven, White British are 24% more likely than other ethnic groups to have reported a long-term health or disability than affects their daily activities a lot.

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No disadvantage in level of qualification found – White British are more likely to have no qualifications than other ethnic groups in the vast majority of local authorities. In North Kesteven, a White British resident is 20% more likely to have no qualifications than other ethnic groups. Across England this increases to 29%.

Affordability of Child Care According to Family and Childcare Trust, in Sleaford and North Hykeham there are:

 5,700 children aged 0-4  12,600 children aged 5-14  18% of children live in poverty after housing costs (2013)

The Family and Childcare Trust undertake an annual Childcare Cost Survey. In 2015, it was reported that the price of nurseries and childminders are generally 10-20% lower in Sleaford and North Hykeham than the regional averages, while after-school and holiday childcare is a similar price.

In the East Midlands, the average prices are:

 £118.82 per week for a part-time nursery place for a child under two  £3.70 per hour for a childminder  £48.20 a week for after-school clubs  £128.44 per week for holiday clubs

The local authority is meant to undertake an annual childcare sufficiency report and make this available to councillors and parents. An analysis of under-fives provision was undertaken in 2013. This identified a shortage of places for two year olds who qualify for free early education.

3,278 two year olds were eligible for free early education in September 2014. Take up stood at 72% of eligible children in November 2014, much higher than regional (55%) and national averages (60%).

Social Isolation / Loneliness National Issue

Life expectancy has been growing steadily for over half a century. In 1951, a man aged 65 could expect on average to live to the age of 77. Today, he can expect to live to 86, and by 2050 to 91. By 2020, the Office for National Statistics predicts that people over 50 will comprise almost a third (32%) of the working age population and almost half (48%) the adult population.

Loneliness is a subjective concept, which is influenced not only by circumstances and events, but is also subject to cultural and psychological factors. Loneliness and isolation are not the same thing; the causes of loneliness are not just physical isolation and lack of companionship, but also sometimes the lack of a useful role in society. One of the most effective ways of combating loneliness is to combat social isolation. (Source: AgeUK)

Local Picture

According to the Annual population Survey (2013), people who are married or in a civil partnership are more likely to rate their satisfaction with life as very high this is compared to 26% who are cohabiting and 21% who were single. Being in the 98th percentile of all districts and boroughs, residents of North Kesteven are significantly more likely to be either married, in a civil partnership or co-habiting than people in England as a whole. Conversly those who were divorced or separated were less likely to have a very high rating of life satisfaction at 18%.

This is shown in our average Life Satisfaction rating, where we scored 7.64 on an 11 point scale compared to 7.45 for England.

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NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs) Proportion of residents that are married, civil A 267 68.1% 57.8% partnership or cohabiting (2011) Life satisfaction Rating (Mean) (April 2011 to A 211 7.64 7.45 March 2014)

Happiness Rating (Mean) (April 2011 to A 253 7.63 7.33 March 2014)

Low socio-economic status (semi-routine B 146 28.2% 30.6% jobs and below inc. unemployed) (2011)

Proportion of residents C 84 5.4% 4.6% aged 80+ (2011)

Proportion of single person households A 229 26.2% 30.3% (2011)

Proportion of households with no A 237 13% 25.8% access to car or van (2011) Estimated proportion of 20 (out 3.5% people living with sight D 3.0% of 152) (Lincs) loss in 2011 (County)

Estimated hearing loss in the UK:

% males - % females - Age range % males - % females - moderate or moderate or profound profound severe severe 18-19 0 0 0 0 20-24 0.18 0.24 0 0

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25-34 0 0.95 0 0 35-44 0.78 2.09 0 0 45-54 7.15 4.13 0 0.09 55-64 14.81 8.09 0.12 0.13 65-74 22.69 15.79 0.43 0.78 75-84 60.63 63.43 0.41 0.8 85+ 85.05 84.8 3.45 4.73

This table could be applied to the ONS population estimates to give estimated numbers predicted to live with hearing loss.

Loneliness data held by UKDataService. Applied for registration. Further Information is available.

Majority of measures taken from Combating loneliness – a guide for local authorities published by the LGA

Mental Health National Issue

Poor mental health is the largest cause of disability in the UK. It’s also closely connected with other problems, including poor physical health and problems in other areas like relationships, education and work prospects. If we want to improve these aspects of people’s lives, we’ll need to make improvements to mental health and wellbeing. To reflect the importance of mental health on a national scale, it is part of the new national measure of wellbeing.

Further reading on gov.uk

Local Picture

It is estimated in North Kesteven that nearly 20% of the female working age population have a common mental disorder in comparison to 13% of men. Although the suicide rate in North Kesteven is relatively high, the amount of hospital stays and the feeling that ‘life is worth lving is in the top quartile within the country.

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs) Mental Health Service TBC Users (link below) Hospital stays for self- harm (per 100,000 pop, B 241 149.2 203.2 2013/14)

44 Suicide rate (per D (Out of 11.3 8.8 100,000 pop, 2011-13)* 243)

Anxiety rating (mean) A 211 2.8 3.0 (2011-2014)

Life is worthwhile rating A 230 7.9 7.7 (mean) (2011-2014)

People aged 18-64 predicted to have a mental health problem, by gender:

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% % males females Common mental disorder 12.5 19.7 Borderline personality disorder 0.3 0.6 Antisocial personality disorder 0.6 0.1 Psychotic disorder 0.3 0.5 Two or more psychiatric disorders 6.9 7.5

This table is based on the report Adult psychiatric morbidity in England, 2007: Results of a household survey, published by the Health and Social Care Information Centre in 2009. The prevalence rates can applied to ONS population projections for the 18-64 population to give estimated numbers predicted to have a mental health problem. Further datasets available for mental health service users.

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Technological

Changing Communication Channels National Issue

The telecoms market is one of the most open and competitive in the world. Effective deregulation has set industry free to create new services and set international standards. For areas where there is poor or non-existent mobile coverage there has been funding up to £150 million to improve mobile coverage. Also, there has been the introduction of 4G mobile communication within the UK. As technology evolves, regulations and legislation has been developing quickly to protect consumers and children.

Further reading on gov.uk

Local Picture

In 2013, to help The Council understand how effective current access channels are, a survey of over 1000 of our customers was conducted. The key findings from this were:

 70% of the customers surveyed advised telephone was their preferred contact channel because it saves time and is convenient.  57% of customers also use email to contact the Council.  14% of customers like to contact us via a face to face access point.  Over 80% of the customers surveyed advised they have daily internet access, with over half of those using the internet continuously on a daily basis.  24% of the customers surveyed use a tablet to access the internet and 18% use a mobile phone.  25% of the customers surveyed would consider using social media to contact the council in the future.  44% of the respondents are already using Facebook for a variety of activities. Source: Customer Access Strategy

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The following graphs show changing communication channels on a National level.

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Access to High Speed Broadband (Fixed Line) National Issue

Fast, reliable broadband internet access is essential for homes throughout the country to benefit from online services, and for UK businesses to compete globally. Some areas of the UK have access to faster broadband speeds than others, with many rural areas receiving far lower speeds than cities and urban areas. There is a national goal to transform broadband access, with everyone in the UK able to access broadband speeds of at least 2 megabits per second (Mbps) and 95% of the UK receiving far greater speeds (at least 24Mbps) by 2017. We are also exploring options to extend the benefits of fast broadband to remaining areas. Further reading on gov.uk

Local Picture

Onlincolnshire is part of Lincolnshire County Council (LCC), working in partnership with partner organisations to promote good connections between people, services, communities and places. NKDC, LCC and six other District Councils are providing public funds for the Lincolnshire broadband programme. So far to date, Onlincolnshire has been rolled out to 12,475 households within NKDC.

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Lincolnshire Quartile Placement Lincs Lincs England Indicator Grade (114 English Upper Tier Authorities Excluding Rank Value Value London) Superfast Broadband coverage (>30Mb/s) D 11 58% 77% (June 2014)

Average Download D 18 18.6Mb/s 24.1Mb/s Speed (June 2014)

Average Upload 3Mb/s D 16 2.6Mb/s Speed (June 2014) (UK)

Source: OFCOM, 2014

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Broadband Take-up in Lincolnshire

Take-up of lines < 2 Mbit/s Take-up of Lines 2-10 Mbit/s Take-up of Lines 10-30 Mbit/s Take-up of lines > 30 Mbit/s

8.9% 41.7% 28.0% 21.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Source: OFCOM, 2014

Source: Fixed Broadband: Policy and Speeds, House of Commons Library

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OnLincolnshire Superfast Broadband rollout - £14,310,000 fund allocation for Phase 1, 6th highest allocation out of 40 project areas. % take-up was 10% as of December 2014 which is 25th place of 40 projects, highest being 37, lowest 3%. Check to see if more recent/local data held internally.

For full mapping of OnLincolnshire rollout plans see: http://www.onlincolnshire.org/my-area/maps

Mobile Coverage National Issue The government wants to continue to encourage innovation and growth in the industry, but also needs to make sure consumers and other citizens are protected effectively. Overall the aim is to regulate the communications industry in a proportionate way that balances the needs of everyone involved. This includes: making changes to the law and working with industry to ensure the consumer remains the main focus of the communications industry, which has changed very quickly over the last decade making sure Ofcom has the funding and powers to regulate the communications and broadcasting industries, and making sure they do their job well funding up to £150 million to improve mobile coverage in areas where coverage is poor or non-existent supporting the introduction of 4G mobile communication to the UK ensuring that media and technology are accessible to the widest range of people, including by encouraging the use of subtitles, and by hosting the e-Accessibility forum working with industry, consumer groups, regulators and other interested parties to protect children online Further reading available gov.uk.

Local Picture Overall NKDC ranks low with regard to mobile phone coverage. Higher areas of coverage are around North Hykeham, Sleaford, and along main roads within the District.

Lincolnshire Quartile Placement Lincs Lincs England Indicator Grade (114 English Upper Tier Authorities Excluding Rank Value Value London) Voice (2G) coverage for all operators – D 10 92% 98% premises (2014) Voice (2G) coverage for all operators – roads D 18 92% - (2014) 3G coverage for all operators – premises D 5 48% 87% (2014) 3G coverage for all operators – roads D 3 16% - (2014)

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4G coverage by 1 or more operators - C 54 23% 75% premises (2014) 4G coverage by 1 or more operators – roads C 49 14% - (2014)

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2G, 3G and 4G Mobile Coverage Map, any mobile network (Source: OpenSignal, 2015)

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Economic

Road Infrastructure National Issue

There are increasing numbers of vehicles on UK roads. The road network has suffered from a lack of investment for too long. This has worsened the experience of road users and damaged the UK’s ability to compete. The government’s aim is to create a national road network fit for the 21st century, which gives road users the best possible quality of service and supports broader economic, environmental and safety goals. To address issues with the existing network, plans were announced in June 2013, in Investing in Britain’s future, to invest £28 billion to improve and maintain the road networks and support jobs and growth Further reading available on gov.uk.

Local Picture

Traffic volume has decreased across England in recent years. Traffic on Lincolnshire roads is also decreasing, but at a slower pace than the majority of the country. Lincolnshire saw a decrease of 0.6% in motor vehicle traffic since 2006. A total of 3,631,000 miles were travelled on Lincolnshire roads in 2013. From 2006 to 2013, a total of 49.5 miles were added to Lincolnshire roads. At 0.9% of the total road volume, this was slightly higher than the English average. Nearly all of this increase was comprised of minor roads, with less than 9 miles added to major ‘A’ roads and motorways.

Single carriage road networks are a major contributory factor to the higher level of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents. As a rural County, 88% of all road networks in Lincolnshire are classed as minor roads. Between 2010 and 2012, 225 people were killed or seriously injured on roads in North Kesteven, placing the District in the worst performing 25% of all English local authorities for major road accidents.

People are travelling further to work. North Kesteven residents’ commute distance increased by 16% from 2001 to 2011 to 12.2 miles, further than the average of 9.3 miles for English commuters.

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs) Motor vehicle traffic 28 -0.6% change since 2006 - (out of -2.6% (Lincs) (2006-2013) 154) 81 Road length change 0.9% B (out of 0.3% since 2006 (2006-2013) (Lincs) 148)

Killed and seriously injured on roads (per D 54 56.7 39.7 100,000 pop, 2011-13)

Distance travelled to D 31 12.2 9.3 work (miles) (2011)

% change in distance travelled to work (2001- C 70 +16.1% +12.0% 2011)

*Due to be updated 2 June.

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Growth Industries

Percentage of Newly Born Business Enterprises that Survive After 2 Years

79.1 80 77 75.5 74 75 73.9 72.5 73.9 70

65

59.2

60 2 Year Survival Rate (%) Rate Survival Year 2

55 2008 2009 2010 2011 Birth Year England Source: Business Demography 2013, ONS

Number of Ranking of Births Ranking of % of newly Year Business Births (out of 326 born business enterprises Authorities) after 2 years (out of 326 Authorities) North Kesteven 710 216th* 3rd* 2011 North Kesteven 304 74th* 280th* 2010

*Please note that the authorities are ranked 1st for worst authority to 326 for the best authority.

The primary data sources are VAT and PAYE and there is a confirmed increase in the number of businesses, particularly in transport and storage, being registered in North Kesteven, although they may not necessarily be operating in that area. For various reasons, it is possible to get multiple business registrations at a single address and this can distort data for smaller geographical areas

NK NK Eng. NK Quartile Placement Indicator Year Grade Rank Value Value (All 326 Lower Tier Authorities) 7 (out 17,431 GVA per head (2013) 2013 D of 39 - (LEP) LEPs)

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Job Density (May 2015 D 73 0.65 0.80 2015)

Agriculture, Forestry & 2014 A 271 10.5% 4.3% Fishing (% of total industry) 2010 A 283 12.0% 4.3% Mining, Quarrying & 2014 A 269 0.8% 0.6% Utilities (% of total industry)

2010 A 271 0.7% 0.5%

2014 B 163 5.3% 5.1% Manufacturing (% of total industry) 2010 B 211 6.3% 5.5%

2014 B 243 12.3% 10.2% Construction (% of total industry) 2010 A 291 14.8% 11.0%

2014 B 175 3.3% 2.9% Motor Trades (% of total industry) 2010 A 261 3.9% 3.0%

2014 C 97 4.1% 4.7% Wholesale (% of total industry) 2010 C 150 4.7% 5.0%

2014 D 8 6.5% 10.4% Retail (% of total industry) 2010 D 39 8.2% 11.0%

2014 A 325 15.7% 3.3% Transport & Storage (% of total industry) 2010 A 250 4.3% 3.2% Accommodation & 2014 D 22 4.3% 6.2% Food (% of total industry) 2010 D 70 5.3% 6.5% Information & 2014 D 28 2.8% 7.4% Communication (% of total industry) 2010 D 76 3.6% 6.5% 2014 D 7 1.1% 2.4% Finance & Insurance (% of total industry) 2010 D 44 1.5% 2.6%

2014 D 27 2.4% 3.7% Property (% of total industry) 2010 D 44 2.6% 3.6%

Professional, 2014 D 64 10.8% 15.8% Scientific & Technical (% of total industry) 2010 D 74 9.7% 14.0%

Business, 2014 C 108 6.5% 7.3% Administration & Support Services (% 2010 C 88 6.5% 7.4% of total industry)

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Public Administration 2014 A 311 1.7% 0.9% & Defence (% of total industry) 2010 A 305 1.8% 0.9%

2014 B 194 2.6% 2.5% Education (% of total industry) 2010 B 181 2.6%1 2.5%

2014 C 138 5.2% 5.7% Health (% of total industry) 2010 B 221 5.9% 5.4%

Arts, Entertainment, 2014 D 3 4.0% 6.6% Recreation & Other Services (% of total 2010 D 18 5.6% 7.2% industry)

Financial Resilience

Local Picture

NKDC Council Tax in-year collection rates 2014/15 99.25% 2013/14 99.16% 2012/13 99.13% 2011/12 99.40%

NKDC Benefit fraud sanctions 2014/15 (part-year to 30.9.14, due to transfer of function to DWP from 1.10.14 – no further stats available at present, but are being sought from DWP) 22 2013/14 28

NKDC Benefit Cap 3 customers affected

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (326 Authorities) Net amount of Business Rates received (per D 29 £211.30 £419.40 capita) (2014/15)

Business rates retained from renewable energy A 320 £2.74 £0.15 projects (per capita) (2014/15) Gross amount of Business Rates D 36 £85.08 £167.79 retained (per capita) (2014/15)

New Homes Bonus per B 146 £72.79 - capita (2014/15)

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Energy Availability and Costs Local Picture

Under the Low Income High Cost definition, a household is considered to be fuel poor where they have required fuel costs that are above average (the national median level), and were they to spend that amount, they would be left with a residual income below the official poverty line.

Using this new definition of fuel poverty, 9.8% of households in North Kesteven are estimated to be fuel poor. Although this is lower than the English average of 10.4%. The District still ranks within the bottom 50% of authorities due to the median being higher than the mean average. The latest estimates suggest that 10,100 households (22%) do not have a gas connection. Furthermore, 62% of these households are located 2 or more kilometres away from the gas distribution network.

Average fuel bill for the East Midlands (2014) with annual change in brackets: Gas = £737 (+3.2%) – 2% lower than the GB average Electricity = £568 (+2.6) – 4.3% lower than the GB average

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs) Proportion of 158 households in fuel C (out of 9.8% 10.4% poverty (2012) 326) Households not connected to the gas D 44 22% 10% network (2013)

Energy Consumption per Household (MWh) B 139 18.0 17.7 (2012)

Note: LSOA data available for gas connection stats

Unemployment NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (All 326 Lower Tier Authorities) 222 Employment rate 16-64 B (out of 77.0% 72.5% (Dec 2014) 324)

245 Unemployment rate 16- A (out of 3.7% 6.4% 64 (Dec 2014) 298)

% of economically 200 inactive 16-64 B (out of 20.0% 22.6% (Dec 2014) 325)

% of economically 265 inactive 16-64 who D (out of 16.3% 25.0% want a job (Dec 2014)* 311)

Job Seekers Allowance B 222 1.0% 1.9% claimants (March 2015)

* Polarity is dependent on context. For this indicator a lower % is better.

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Building Costs Inflation

According to the Quarterly Construction Price and Cost Indices Q2 2014 Commentary:

Cost and price pressures in construction have continued to rise during the 2nd Quarter 2014. There is an upward trend evident across all new work sectors when compared with both the previous quarter and year-on-year. The repair and maintenance sector also appears to be maintaining previous increases generally, although there has been a slowdown in impetus within Private Housing Repair and Maintenance sector.

New Construction The BIS Output Price Index for New Construction (2010): All New Construction for 2nd Quarter 2014 increased by 1.5% on the previous quarter and by 6.0% year-on-year. Above average increases in output prices, on a quarterly and year-on-year basis, were noted in two new work sectors, namely the Private Commercial (9.0%) and Private Housing (7.2%) sectors.

Repair and Maintenance The BIS Output Price Index for Repair and Maintenance Construction (2010): All Repair and Maintenance for 2nd Quarter 2014 increased by 0.4% on the previous quarter and by 1.4% year-on-year. Much of the increase was accounted for by rises in the Private Housing Repair and Maintenance sector which saw the largest increase of 3.3% year-on-year

Public Sector The BIS Tender Price Index for Public Sector Non-Housing (PUBSEC) 2nd Quarter 2014 increased by 2.0% on the previous quarter and by 5.3% year-on-year. The BIS Tender Price Index of Social Housing (TPISH) 2nd Quarter 2014 increased by 1.0% on the previous quarter and by 4.1% year-on-year.

Resource Costs The BIS Resource Cost Indices in 2nd Quarter 2014 show very little movement between the first two quarters of 2014 across all sectors.

Infrastructure – Public Transport Provision

Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-statistics-great-britain-2014

Trains There are two train routes – Lincoln-Sleaford-Peterborough and Nottingham-Grantham-Sleaford-Skegness

Buses 34 Bus operators in Lincolnshire 29 weekly bus trips per 1000 people https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/bus10-number-of-trips-and-information-systems

Bus Routes

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Source: Lincolnshire County Council

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Loss of Highly Qualified Young People

Local Picture

The proportion of working-age residents in North Kesteven that hold a degree or above (level 4+) is in line with the English average. However, there is a significant lack of highly educated young people in the District. People tend to move away at 18 to attend University and are not attracted back into the District until their late 30s.

North Kesteven Population (2012) England Population (2012)

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs)

Level 4 Qualifications C 132 28.3% 27.4% and above (2011)

Employment rate for 85.3% level 4 and above B 170 86.2% (E&W) qualified (2011)

16 to 34 year olds with level 4+ qualifications C 122 22.7% 28.0% (2011)

35 to 64 year olds with level 4+ qualifications C 133 30.9% 31.0% (2011)

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Cost Premium for Rural Service Delivery (Public and Private Sectors)

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Source: Rural Services Network, 2015

Environmental

Climate Change – Carbon Reductions National Issue

The world’s climate and weather patterns are changing. Global temperatures are rising, causing more extreme weather events, like flooding and heatwaves. ‘Adaptation’ involves changing the way we do things to prepare for the potential effects of climate change. This means we will be better protected against consequences like flooding. It also means we’ll be better prepared for new opportunities, like the chance to grow different crops. The earlier we plan for adaptation, the less it will cost and the better equipped we will be to cope with potential changes. Further reading on gov.uk

NK NK NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade UK Value Rank Value (Out of 406 UK Second Tier Authorities)

Total reduction in per capita Local CO2 B 275 18.0% 18.4% emission (2005-2012)

Industry and Commercial – reduction B 282 24.1% 22.9% in per capita Local CO2 emission (2005-2012) Domestic – reduction in per capita Local CO2 C 154 11.7% 13.4% emission (2005-2012)

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Transport – reduction in per capita Local CO2 A 327 17.8% 14.7% emission (2005-2012) Note: Mean and Median differ due to some extremely high performing authorities achieving over 50% total reduction in carbon emissions per capita. This means that whilst NK may be in the top 50% performing authorities (median), it still performs below the UK average (mean).

Further reading on gov.uk

Energy Efficiency of Buildings (Domestic and Commercial) National Issue

40% of the UK’s energy consumption and carbon emissions come from the way our buildings are lit, heated and used. Even comparatively small changes in energy performance and the way we use each building will have a significant effect in reducing total energy consumption.

NK NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade Rank Value Value (Out of 396 English and Welsh Las) Domestic: proportion of EPC Ratings A-C B 267 38.2% 36.2% (2008-2014)

Commercial: proportion of EPC Ratings A-C B 237 35.9% 35.6% (2008-2014)

Energy Performance Certificates

The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) is responsible for making sure buildings in the UK meet the standards required by the EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive.

The Directive requires that:

 all properties (homes, commercial and public buildings) must have an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) when sold, built or rented  larger public buildings over 500m² must display a Display Energy Certificate (DEC)  all air-conditioning systems over 12kW must be regularly inspected by an Energy Assessor

EPCs are produced by accredited energy assessors using standard methods and assumptions about energy usage. This means that the energy efficiency of one building can easily be compared with another building of the same type.

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EPC Rating of NK Domestic Buildings A 2008-2014 G 2% 0.1%

F B 6% 9% E 16% C 29%

D 38%

Source: Low Carbon Energy Assessors, Qtr 2 2014. Based on 21,757 lodgements

Average EPC Rating of NK Domestic Buildings 2008-2014 D

A B C D E F G

Source: Low Carbon Energy Assessors, Qtr 2 2014. Based on 21,757 lodgements

EPC Rating of NK Non-Domestic Buildings A 2008-2014 2%

G B F 9% 6% 9% C E 28% 16%

D 30%

Source: Low Carbon Energy Assessors, Qtr 2 2014. Based on 757 lodgements

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Average EPC Rating of NK Domestic Buildings 2008-2014 D

A B C D E F G

Source: Low Carbon Energy Assessors, Qtr 2 2014. Based on 757 lodgements

Quality of Environment National Issue

Air pollution, noise from traffic or neighbours, or litter and mess on the streets can affect people’s quality of life. For example, things like litter and graffiti, left unchecked, can build up and lead to further anti-social behaviour and more serious crime. The annual cost of road traffic noise in England has been estimated at £7 billion to £10 billion. There is increasing evidence of direct links between road traffic noise and various types of illness, like heart attacks and strokes.

Air pollution, for example from road transport, harms our health and wellbeing. It is estimated to have an effect equivalent to 29,000 deaths each year and is expected to reduce the life expectancy of everyone in the UK by 6 months on average, at a cost of around £16 billion per year. Air pollution also damages biodiversity, reduces crop yields and contributes to climate change. Further information available.

Local Picture

Air Quality Local authorities are responsible for reviewing and assessing air quality, to check they meet national air quality objectives. If they are falling short, they must declare an Air Quality Management Area and produce an action plan showing what they are going to do to meet standards.

Public Health England estimate that 5.4% of all deaths of people aged 25+ in North Kesteven could be attributable to air pollution. This leads to an associated 546 life-years lost within the population. Although this is slightly better than the England average, it should be noted that the average includes London and other urban areas. When compared to other districts in Lincolnshire, only Lincoln has a higher attributable fraction (5.6%) with South Kesteven also at 5.4%.

North Kesteven District Council undertakes ongoing measurements of the area’s air quality and the following link provides a detailed report of the air quality in the district. Further reports available. The review of 2013 monitoring data found that most diffusion tube sites in 2013 showed the lowest concentrations across the monitoring period.

Flooding The local flood zone map can be found here.

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (Out of 270 Districts/Boroughs) Attributable deaths age 25+ to air pollution B 144 5.4% 5.6% (2014)

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Number of sandbags distributed by NKDC

118

18 10 3

2010 2011 2012 2014

Land Use Local Picture

Land Use in North Kesteven District

8% 2%

90%

Agriculture Urban/Leisure Woodland

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Demographics

Population Growth NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs)

Population estimate - 159 109,906 53.8m 2013*

Estimated population - 69 9.9% 7.4% growth 2003 to 2013*

Population projections - 82 8.6% 7.1% 2013 to 2023*

* No grade given as it is neither good nor bad to have high levels of this group. For charting and ranking purposes, red indicates a high level/numbers and green indicates a low level/numbers.

Ageing Population National Issue

The structure of our society is changing – more of us are living longer. Life expectancy has been growing steadily for over half a century. In 1951, a man aged 65 could expect on average to live to the age of 77. Today, he can expect to live to 86, and by 2050 to 91. Today there are 15,000 people aged 100 or over.

The UK has now reached a point where there are more people over State Pension age than children. By 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) predicts that people over 50 will comprise almost a third (32%) of the working age population and almost half (48%) the adult population

Further reading on gov.uk

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (All 270 Districts/Boroughs)

Mean Age 2011* - 54 42.7 39.3

Median Age 2011* - 53 44 39

Proportion of residents aged 65 and over - 58 23.3% 17.3% 2013*

Projected percentage increase of residents - 116 23.2% 21.6% aged 65 and over 2013 to 2023* * No grade given as it is neither good nor bad to have high levels of this group. For charting and ranking purposes, red indicates a high level/numbers and green indicates a low level/numbers.

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Increasing Diversity of Population

2013-2013 NK Population Projections Components of Change (rounded) Population 2013 110,100 Population 2023 119,400 10-year population change 9,300

Births 12100 Deaths 12200 Natural Change -100

Internal Migration In 64900 Internal Migration Out 56500 International Migration In 4400 International Migration Out 3300 Cross-border Migration In 2200 Cross-border Migration Out 2200 All Migration Net 9900

NK England NK Quartile Placement Indicator Grade NK Value Rank Value (Out of 326 local authorities)

Net international migration projections - 170 1,100 1,689,800 (2013-2023)*

% of residents who cannot speak English B 228 0.4% 1.7% well/at all (age 3+ 2011)

Note: * No grade given as it is neither good nor bad to have high levels of this group. For charting and ranking purposes, red indicates a high level/numbers and green indicates a low level/numbers.

Increase in Dementia National Issue

There are around 800,000 people with dementia in the UK, and the disease costs the economy £23 billion a year. By 2040, the number of people affected is expected to double - and the costs are likely to treble.

The Dementia Challenge was launched in March 2012 by Prime Minister, David Cameron. The Dementia Challenge work programme superseded the national strategy and focuses on 3 main areas: bringing about improvements in health and care, creating dementia friendly communities and improving research.

Further reading on gov.uk

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Estimated number of people aged 65+ living with Dementia in North Kesteven:

Dementia - all people 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 People aged 65-69 predicted 99 100 86 95 113 to have dementia People aged 70-74 predicted 167 175 211 186 205 to have dementia People aged 75-79 predicted 280 291 344 414 373 to have dementia People aged 80-84 predicted 392 406 486 594 725 to have dementia People aged 85-89 predicted 383 400 478 595 733 to have dementia People aged 90 and over 329 357 416 564 770 predicted to have dementia Total population aged 65 and over predicted to have 1,650 1,729 2,021 2,447 2,919 dementia

Rates for men and women with dementia are as follows:

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