Annual Report 2012

CONTENTS ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE IN

Introducing the Centre 1 Director’s Report and Highlights 2 Chairman’s Message 6 Strategic Directions 7

SECTION 1 – GOVERNANCE & STRUCTURE 9

POPULATION AGEING RESEARCH Governance 10 Structure 15 Centre Personnel 16

SECTION 2 – RESEARCH & RESEARCH TRAINING 18 Strand 1: System-wide Economic, Social and Policy Issues 19 Strand 2: Decision Making by Individuals, Households and Firms 46 Strand 3: Integrating Public and Private Provision of Products and Services 68 Strand 4: Ageing Well and Productively 80 Research Training & Mentoring 96

/ SECTION 3 – EXTERNAL LINKAGES 107 ANNUAL REPORT Industry & Government Links 108 International Links 113 ANNUAL REPORT 2012 SECTION 4 – PERFORMANCE INDICATORS & FINANCIAL STATEMENT 119 Key Performance Indicators 120 Research Outputs 122 2012 Media & Communications 132 End User Links 135 New Grants Awarded in 2012 137 Centre Finance 138 Estimates of Future Expenditure 139

CONTACT DETAILS 141 CONTENTS ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE IN

Introducing the Centre 1 Director’s Report and Highlights 2 Chairman’s Message 6 Strategic Directions 7

SECTION 1 – GOVERNANCE & STRUCTURE 9

POPULATION AGEING RESEARCH Governance 10 Structure 15 Centre Personnel 16

CONTACT DETAILS 141 The Treasury INTRODUCING THE CENTRE

1 CEPAR

ABOUT CEPAR MISSION OBJECTIVES ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • THE ARC CENTRE CEPAR’S MISSION THE OBJECTIVES OF •• Become a global intellectual hub for OF EXCELLENCE IN IS TO PRODUCE THE CENTRE ARE TO: population ageing POPULATION AGEING RESEARCH THAT •• Produce original research, by combining RESEARCH (CEPAR) WILL TRANSFORM research, to be in-house expertise with published in leading leading researchers IS A COLLABORATION THINKING ABOUT international academic globally in initiatives INTRODUCING THE CENTRE BETWEEN ACADEMIA, POPULATION AGEING, journals, in each of to target research GOVERNMENT AND INFORM BUSINESS the nominated issues and generate fields, integrating new outcome-oriented INDUSTRY. PRACTICE AND them to advance approaches to studying The Centre is based at the PUBLIC POLICY, knowledge globally the population ageing University of New South AND IMPROVE •• Establish outstanding process and its Wales with nodes at research capability to implications the Australian National PEOPLE’S generate the evidence •• Engage with external University and the University WELLBEING base and policy analysis stakeholders as an of Sydney. It aims to THROUGHOUT required to anticipate integral part of the establish Australia as a and respond Centre’s research world leader in the field THEIR LIVES. constructively to activity, to develop of population ageing demographic transition research goals, to research through a unique •• Undertake evidence- share in project combination of high level, based research to execution, and to cross-disciplinary expertise allow development of translate research drawn from Economics, products and output into forms Psychology, Sociology, markets relevant to an accessible by the Epidemiology, Actuarial ageing population professional Science, and Demography. •• Create new cohorts community, both of researchers with an national and global. CEPAR is actively engaged enriched appreciation with a range of influential of cross-disciplinary government and industry contributions by training partners to cooperatively PhD students and early deliver outcomes to meet career researchers the challenges of population (ECRs), thus building ageing. It will build a new high quality research generation of researchers capacity for the to global standard with generation for which an appreciation of the population change is multidisciplinary nature especially crucial of population ageing. DIRECTOR’S REPORT & HIGHLIGHTS

CEPAR achievements thus far, These two research foci After nearly two years including initiatives which exemplify this. Researchers of operation, we are now

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • have only just begun. from many different approaching full capacity This will allow us to use disciplines – economics, in terms of research the document not only to actuarial, demography, fellow appointments. provide an account of our epidemiology, One reason for our success activities to the Australian psychology, sociology – with research is that we Research Council (ARC), but have participated. have been careful with to introduce CEPAR to newly our appointments, taking

DIRECTOR’S REPORT The development of engaged and potential time to recruit the very best research capacity is one partners and researchers. young scholars. The large of CEPAR’s core goals. majority of our research Through 2012, our research We have implemented a fellows are within a few has flourished, as indicated number of initiatives to years of their PhD, still in the main body of this nurture young researchers evolving as researchers. report. More than 60 research and are seeing increasing projects are listed in this interest from both junior We work hard at providing PROFESSOR JOHN PIGGOTT year’s report, and some faculty and PhD students an environment which of these are aggregations in having a CEPAR exposes them to a range of individual projects. affiliation – reflecting of disciplinary approaches IT’S BEEN AN IMPORTANT YEAR FOR CEPAR. Of particular note is the CEPAR’s growing to the issues at hand. multifaceted approach to reputation. The additional $1.25 million OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, WE HAVE issues in health investment, grant awarded to CEPAR MOVED FROM THE MECHANICS OF as human capital or as a by the ARC last year for ESTABLISHING THE CENTRE TO requirement for a longer and research capacity more rewarding later life. building has been critical DEVELOPING STRATEGIES DESIGNED As well, the massive in facilitating the TO MEET ITS OBJECTIVES. research program built construction of a around issues in mortality postdoctoral workshop Research activity is growing our existing international and longevity, and program. We are able to fast. We have been active in ties and are beginning the longevity risk management offer these workshops in recruitment, and are now process of extending our make a major contribution relevant topics which approaching full capacity in reach into other international to our understanding of are accessible to young terms of our research networks and organisations. these issues. researchers from differing appointments. We have backgrounds, and in We have also begun to invested much time in which young researchers crystallise our vision for the THE CULTURE WHICH HAS BEEN developing our relationships not otherwise affiliated future. This will be an ongoing DEVELOPED IN THE CEPAR COMMUNITY with partner organisations to CEPAR may participate. process, but we took some – an immensely rewarding ENCOURAGES RESEARCH ANCHORED important steps in 2012, on experience that is providing which I will elaborate below. IN MULTIPLE DISCIPLINES. us with new insights and perspectives on the impacts This report is designed to of the ageing demographic. provide a substantive We have also consolidated account of the Centre’s 3 CEPAR THIS KIND OF RESEARCH CAPACITY on the topic were presented Library Lecture on ‘The Internationally, CEPAR’s at the FaHCSIA CEPAR Imperative for Fundamental activities are gaining

BUILDING IS DESIGNED TO ENCOURAGE AN Roundtables. A CEPAR and Ongoing Aged Care exposure through research ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • APPRECIATION OF OTHER PERSPECTIVES, AND policy forum at the annual Reform’. To generate further presentations. Increasingly, OTHER BODIES OF KNOWLEDGE, TO BETTER Conference of Economists in debate on an area of policy as our corpus of research Melbourne, which featured where the framework in grows, we have sought to INFORM RESEARCH PROJECT FORMULATION. international and Treasury Australia has now been laid organise full sessions on speakers, partly focused on out, but where an enormous population ageing, with An important part of our couple of months. Briefs this question. I was invited amount of policy formulation heavy or exclusive CEPAR mission is to develop a pool on retirement products, to present at a policy forum has yet to be executed, involvement. To support the DIRECTOR’S REPORT of next-generation scholars aged care policy, and the on the issue organised CEPAR joined forces with the inaugural IAGG Africa Region with this experience and challenges of cognitive by the Age Discrimination Crawford School of Public Conference on Ageing in mind-set. decline will follow. Commissioner, and served Policy at ANU, in Canberra, Africa, Bob Cumming While CEPAR’s primary This year, as the Centre on the advisory committee to host a Policy Dialogue on organised a special CEPAR purpose is to produce reached maturity, we have for the Australian Law Aged Care. Opened by the funded session on ‘Adapting research to support society begun to engage more fully Reform Commission enquiry Australian Minister for Mental Africa’s Health Systems to in its transition to a changed with our end users with a into barriers to mature Health and Ageing, the Hon. Manage Non-Communicable demographic structure, view to influencing policy labour force participation. Mark Butler, the day featured Disease in Older Persons’. the organisation by its nature, formulation and reform. Hal Kendig and I also met international academics, At the Asian Population is accumulating an Two examples will suffice. with the Positive Ageing senior Australian policy Association Conference in extraordinary stock of It is no accident that the Panel to discuss the work professionals, and a range Bangkok, a CEPAR sponsored knowledge on population first briefing paper analysed of the Centre and ways our of Australia-based academic session focused on ageing. This not only functions mature labour force research can assist their experts. The Dialogue intergenerational support as a crucible to inspire new participation. This is a endeavours to provide attracted some 150 of the elderly was chaired directions in research, it also hot issue in population guidance and advice on participants. Presentations by Peter McDonald. has value as a unique bank ageing research, because how people can age well. were lively and participant Domestically, CEPAR also of expertise which we try to increasing longevity The value of workforce engagement was strong. sponsored a number of leverage through knowledge makes existing patterns of attachment was a major This event provided a unique symposia, including one on dissemination. With this in mind, retirement unsustainable topic. Rafal Chomik’s opportunity to showcase our Promoting Active Ageing as contribution to the Shades significant expertise and part of the 45th Australasian of Grey series being run by multidisciplinary talent Association of Gerontology IN 2012 WE LAUNCHED A BRIEFING PAPER The Conversation provides base to a broad audience National Conference and the SERIES, WHICH IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE AN further evidence of this on an important topic, and Psychology of Healthy INFORMED PERSPECTIVE ON IMPORTANT ISSUES policy interaction. both CEPAR and Crawford Ageing Symposium held ended the day thinking that at the Centre for Research Another example relates to RELATING TO AN AGEING DEMOGRAPHIC. this was an experiment on Ageing, Health and Aged Care. Again, a number of worth repeating. Wellbeing at ANU. The first, on Mature Age in the longer term, and research projects focus on Labour Force Participation, healthier ageing makes this issue. In the public Policy impact is always has already appeared. retirement delay feasible. arena, Hal Kendig presented hard to assess, but a Others, focused on the Several research projects to the Aged Care Continuum pre-requisite is participation rapidly ageing demographic touch on this topic. Committee for the Economic in the policy debate, and in the Asian region, will This gelled with policy Development of Australia and these activities are evidence be published in the next interaction. Several papers delivered a Parliamentary of this engagement. DIRECTOR’S REPORT & HIGHLIGHTS

CEPAR The Centre also hosted 33 Foreign Affairs and Trade to knowledge experienced by day demonstrated a strong international visitors in support this, and have other policy and product makers. sense of shared purpose for

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 2012, ranging from early grant applications pending. They also provide access the activities and goals of career researchers to Postdoctoral researchers to useful data for our CEPAR, across participants, international leaders in the and PhD students will researchers on work that nodes, and disciplines, field of population ageing. participate in CEPAR-hosted is already underway. which was very encouraging. As part of our distinguished workshops in both China For example, CEPAR’s Overall, we have met or visitors program we and Australia on a range of insights and experience in exceeded most of our organised and hosted topics related to population longevity risk modelling and

DIRECTOR’S REPORT Key Performance Targets public lectures by Professor ageing, with participation product development have for 2012, as we did in our Emily Grundy, Cambridge by leading academics and proven to be of particular first year of operation. University’s first Chair of policy specialists in both interest to the actuarial And CEPAR’s Management Demography, and Professor countries. Several Chinese community, both in Australia and Advisory groups have Ermanno Pitacco from universities will be involved, and internationally. CEPAR begun the process of the University of Trieste. with Zhejiang University, will be building on these formalising our strategy. Our personnel were invited rated the country’s best strong foundations to deliver When the strategy to visit almost 40 leading for the last two years, transformative research document is finalised, research institutions in 2012. playing a leading role. in the coming years. it will be used as the Finally, one of the most basis for discussion LOOKING FORWARD, IN JULY THIS rewarding activities I have and decision-making YEAR WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST been involved in this year into the future. has been the strategic

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON development sessions we POPULATION AGEING. have undertaken with the considerable assistance of The challenge is to create a We hope this will build Bain & Co. Following program which will appeal long-term relationships extended discussions about to experts from multiple between researchers in strategy development with John Piggott disciplines. And later in the the two countries, and help Bain, a research strategy year, in partnership with the coalesce regional research retreat was convened. Project for Intergenerational activity into the causes About 20 CEPAR participants, Equity at Hitotsubashi and consequences of an representing the various University, we will host a ageing demographic. If this groups within the Centre, conference devoted to model is successful, we were invited to participate. pension reform. may try to launch similar We are in the process of programs in other emerging finalising the document – This coming year will also Asian countries. that will happen in the first see CEPAR ramping up its half of 2013 – but ideas efforts to expand research 2013 will also see CEPAR are now well-developed. capacity building in China, further develop our Some of these ideas are the world’s most rapidly partnerships with industry mentioned in the Strategic ageing large economy. We and government. These Directions section following. were fortunate to win a grant relationships are important But just as important, the from the Department of in understanding the gaps in HIGHLIGHTS

5 CEPAR 64 PROJECTS PETER MCDONALD DELIVERED THE MAJOR

KEYNOTE ADDRESS TO THE CONFERENCE OF ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 89 JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS THE BRITISH SOCIETY FOR POPULATION STUDIES, NOTTINGHAM AND OPENING PLENARIES AT THE EUROPEAN POPULATION AND ASIAN FIRST CEPAR RESEARCH BRIEF LAUNCHED ON POPULATION CONFERENCES MATURE-AGE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION

MICHAEL KEANE ELECTED A FELLOW OF THE HIGHLIGHTS AGED CARE POLICY DIALOGUE CO-HOSTED WITH ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES IN AUSTRALIA ANU’S CRAWFORD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY

MICHAEL KEANE INVITED TO SPEND A YEAR AT PETER MCDONALD AND KAARIN ANSTEY NUFFIELD COLLEGE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD APPOINTED INAUGURAL FELLOWS OF THE INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC POLICY AT ANU MICHAEL SHERRIS AND ASSOCIATE INVESTIGATOR (AI) KATJA HANEWALD1 AWARDED HAL KENDIG DELIVERED THE KEYNOTE ADDRESS MELVILLE FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIZE BY THE AT THE 4TH ANNUAL DR ROBERT C.K. LAWRENCE INSTITUTE OF ACTUARIES ELDERCARE SEMINAR AT THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF SOCIAL SERVICES SINGAPORE MICHAEL SHERRIS AND CEPAR VISITOR, SEVERINE GAILLE, WON AN INTERNATIONAL ACTUARIAL CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON AGEING, HEALTH ASSOCIATION AWARD FOR THEIR PAPER AND WELLBEING AT THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL PRESENTED AT THE MEXICO COLLOQUIUM 2012 UNIVERSITY ESTABLISHED UNDER THE DIRECTORSHIP OF KAARIN ANSTEY SPECIAL CEPAR SPONSORED SESSION AT THE INAUGURAL IAGG AFRICA REGION CONFERENCE ON JOHN PIGGOTT DELIVERED THE KEYNOTE AGEING IN AFRICA ORGANISED BY BOB CUMMING ADDRESS AT THE NETSPAR CONFERENCE IN THE NETHERLANDS AI COLETTE BROWNING APPOINTED HONORARY PROFESSOR AT PEKING UNIVERSITY AND CO- AI HEATHER BOOTH JOINT WINNER OF ANU’S CASS DIRECTOR OF THE UNIVERSITY’S NEW HEALTH AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN SUPERVISION 2012 AND AGEING RESEARCH CENTRE

1 Along with Maathumai Nirmalendran, a recent UNSW Honours graduate now with Finity Consulting, CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE

CEPAR United States, Australia CEPAR undertakes research CEPAR is breaking new Other key activities in and China. It needs to in areas likely to have the ground in its approach which 2012 included:

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • be properly researched. most significant impact may be a good model for •• Continued engagement Equally important, in the on understanding and research initiatives in other with the Leaders’ Forum light of research outcomes, addressing the issues areas. Engagement can to enlist support of CEOs be frustrated by longer and department heads timeframes of research, POLICY AND PRODUCT RESPONSES NEED helping to drive home the researchers’ preference message that this is an TO BE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF TIME TO for innovation, desire for

CHAIRMAN’S MESSAGE important strategic issue MINIMISE ANY ADVERSE IMPACTS AND academic independence, •• Enlisting the support of and academic structures MAXIMISE OPPORTUNITIES AT A BUSINESS, Bain & Company and which can clash with end Bryant Plavsic on a pro COUNTRY AND GLOBAL LEVEL. users’ shorter term focus, bono basis to assist with preference for incremental The creation of an ARC Centre arising from our ageing a review of the research change, their desire for MARC DE CURE of Excellence in Population demographic. But it is strategy and resultant more immediate results Ageing Research (CEPAR) is seeking to go beyond this priorities, and working and a greater influence testament to the importance to promote awareness of with research personnel over the policy agenda. Population ageing is a vitally of the issue from a research the issues and research at all levels to ensure important issue that will perspective. In recent outcomes. This approach The Advisory Board became the research programs confront many countries years population ageing requires a strategic fully operational in 2012. and collaboration are over the coming decades. is increasingly being understanding of the Its central role is to facilitate attuned to key priorities The fact that it’s occurring recognised as a critical issues, alignment of the the engagement process •• Providing support and is certain, but there are many issue by governments, research agenda to areas by bringing relevant parties advice to the Centre’s uncertainties that need to be professionals, businesses of greatest significance, together. It functions as a leadership team better understood. We know and community groups. iterative exchange of conduit for engagement Our challenge is to continue little about the likely It’s interesting to note its ideas and transfer of between researchers and to build connections with course of life expectancy recognition at the recent knowledge between stakeholders, spanning business, government and improvements, for example. World Economic Forum all key stakeholders, research focus, support community groups to We know even less about discussions at Davos. and engagement with and dissemination. But it facilitate excellent research what it means for society. And driving the implications the broader community. also serves as a mechanism outcomes which transform And still less about how home in a very tangible way, The better and faster through which Board policy and practice, government, business, rating agencies are now the exchange between members come to providing a good return on and the community might considering the impact of researchers, and also understand each investment to the ARC and respond most effectively as ageing populations in their between researchers other’s perspectives. sponsor organisations. the demographic transition assessment of countries and end users, the more I’m pleased to report that unfolds. It is a key element and, no doubt, businesses. powerful will be research much progress was made by underlying the economic Special interest groups such impact. In this, the Advisory the Board in 2012, including and social issues Japan has as National Seniors Australia Board has a key role to play. agreement on its charter faced over the last decade and the mainstream media and key priorities and and more recently many are also focusing on the identifying opportunities European countries are issue, and this facilitates Marc de Cure for research support. facing. And it’s a rapidly broader community emerging issue in the awareness and engagement. STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS

7 CEPAR IN 2012, CEPAR CEPAR’s reputation is CEPAR will co-host the building – we are engaging ARTICULATING STRATEGY CONFERENCES IN 2013 Superannuation Colloquium.

HAS CONSOLIDATED more and more with Based on our experience Dissemination of our This has traditionally been ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • ITS POSITION AS A business and government over the first 18 months of research is critical. organised by a small centre LEADING GLOBAL on issues connected to the Centre’s operation, and Organising conferences at UNSW, the Centre for demographic change. with the support of Bain allows us to share our Pensions and Superannuation. RESEARCH CENTRE And we have begun to & Company, we have research, contribute to the In assuming joint FOCUSED ON expand our international converged on a strategic debate, promote the Centre stewardship with the ASB footprint. With these plan for the Centre’s next and the issue of population School of Risk and Actuarial

POPULATION AGEING. STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS initiatives under control, three years of operation. ageing itself, and strengthen Studies, we hope to bring RESEARCH IS we are thinking about new As part of this, we organised ties with external new energy to the event, FLOURISHING, AND goals for 2013 and beyond. a research strategy retreat, stakeholders. and to expand its scope. Through 2012 we worked on an important milestone, OUR ORGANISATION OF CEPAR will play a central role Later in the year, CEPAR will a fully developed strategy leading to new thinking in a number of conferences join forces with the Project RESEARCH CAPACITY for the next several years, about research directions, and workshops to be held on Intergenerational Equity, and our 2013 goals are and affirming a sense of BUILDING HAS BEEN through the year. First, we at the Research Institute strongly aligned with this shared purpose. Flowing are organising our first for Policies on Pension and COMPLETED AND IS strategy. Five areas of from these activities, a international conference. Aging (RIPPA), Japan, to PROCEEDING WELL. activity for 2013 are covered strategy document will It will be a multi-disciplinary organise a conference on below, beginning with be available in the first event focused on population pre-funded pension plans. strategy development itself. half of 2013. ageing, to be held at UNSW And finally, we are planning The others are: conferences, to join with Harvard infrastructure, research This process has been a on July 2-4. Its purpose is rewarding and challenging to showcase the range of University to co-host a capacity building, and workshop on population community resources. one, because so much of CEPAR research, and, what CEPAR is doing is new, equally, to invite external ageing, tied to a Handbook especially in the social participants from multiple of Population Ageing, edited sciences. An articulated disciplines to engage in by Alan Woodland and John strategy allows us to orient deliberations on the issue. Piggott, and to be published Centre activities and The event will provide an by Elsevier. The Elsevier initiatives to its core opportunity to expand handbook series is perhaps purpose. It is a lens through linkages between CEPAR the most prestigious in the which the disparate researchers and others Economics discipline. We are fortunate to have secured activities of the Centre are around the world, and to outstanding contributors brought into focus and emphasise the importance from around the world – a connected, and in this way of population ageing, and description of the project clarifies its future directions. its multi-faceted research itself appears in the body of requirements. the report. In the present In June, Kate O’Loughlin context, the conference and Hal Kendig will convene should be seen as one more a workshop in Seoul of effort to bring together international collaborators researchers concerned with conducting research on population ageing, and to Work and Care. Later in July, raise the profile of the issue. STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS

CEPAR world-wide would be able resources to connect to the would raise awareness STRENGTHENING to include Australia in their wider research community. RESOURCES FOR THE of certain aspects of

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH international research, We are initiating a program COMMUNITY: A THREE demographic change that INFRASTRUCTURE and the range and quality to forge links with these YEAR PROJECT had not been previously The empirical analysis of of analysis available to young scholars, and to help A longer term initiative is appreciated in the broader demographic change in policymakers in Australia them connect with each related to informing policy community. Again, these Australia is hampered by the would dramatically improve. other, starting with China. debate and raising ideas are preliminary, but lack of strong data. This is We expect this to develop community awareness fall within our mandate, in a major gap in Australia’s BUILDING RESEARCH relationships between about population ageing in informing policy and raising STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS social sciences research CAPACITY universities in China and Australia. It takes two forms. awareness of the issue arsenal. Many countries CEPAR, and between the First, we are beginning to of population ageing. Research capacity building around the world have scholars themselves, plan a resource for the use is central to our core CEPAR’s development is now developed internationally building a firmer foundation of both professionals and purpose. As reported well underway. We have comparable panel surveys for next-generation the wider community, which elsewhere, we now have a organisational structures to capture the behaviour researchers on population will provide information and well-developed program in place to accommodate and circumstances of older ageing in countries where insights into population in place to support this, developments in our cohorts. These include it is most urgently needed, ageing. We have been talking including financial support, research programs, in not only the developed and generating long term with teacher organisations and a range of postdoctoral research capacity building, economies of North America research profile for CEPAR. and education authorities workshops. The 2013 in government and industry and Europe, but emerging We have chosen China about what might be done ERA conference will be engagement, and in nations such as China, because of strong existing for secondary students, so hosted by CEPAR Associate international linkages. India, and Korea, among connections there, and that they become familiar Investigators Lindy Clemson We are excited by the new many others. But although because we have been with the idea that population and Kate O’Loughlin based horizons that keep opening our policy structures and successful in raising funds ageing is a process in the Ageing, Work and in this vital area of business environment from the Department of which will impact them Health Research Unit at knowledge-building, about are very different from Foreign Affairs and Trade throughout their lives. the University of Sydney. our shared sense of purpose, elsewhere, there are few for this purpose. We have A web-based resource, Kaarin Anstey will again and about our vision for the databases which allow also applied for UNSW possibly with interactive lead the Annual National future. And strategically, convincing comparison of funding. Two workshops are components, is being Research Methods we have a sense of how the resulting behaviours planned which will provide contemplated. Workshops at ANU to and what to progress and with those of our neighbours opportunities for young increase skills in population- Relatedly, we are considering execute in these arenas of and comparator developed researchers to meet based research in Australia. investing in undertaking our activity. New frontiers – nations. CEPAR has now established scholars, both applied research topics building research capacity established that the ARC will The primary clientele for China based experts and which are important from internationally, and regard surveys of this kind these activities are CEPAR personnel. a policy standpoint. developing research as social science research Australia-based If this is successful in These research projects, infrastructure – are infrastructure, and will be researchers. But we have China, we will consider which will typically be challenges that face us over seeking Large Infrastructure become increasingly aware applying the same model informed by a multi- the next couple of years. and Equipment Fund (LIEF) over the last 18 months to other countries in Asia. disciplinary perspective, Longer term, new resources partners over the next that young researchers would appear as special to raise community and 12 months, to work towards in many countries are reports rather than as policy awareness of a grant application to fund concerned about the issue academic papers. They would the challenges and an Australian survey. of population ageing, yet do be informative to policy, and opportunities of population If successful, scholars not have the organisational ageing will be developed. 9 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

& STRUCTURE GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE 1 SECTION GOVERNANCE

CEPAR The governance structure governance are the accountability for all with external perspectives Three subcommittees - of the Centre supports Centre Director and the aspects of Centre activity. on the formulation of focused on research

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • strategic development Management Committee The Scientific Advisory research programs, management, mentoring, as well as engagement who have overall Committee, Centre Advisory their implementation, and outreach - support the between researchers, responsibility for Board and the Leaders’ and the dissemination of Management Committee. industry and government. Centre performance, Forum provide the research outcomes. Central to CEPAR’s holding ultimate Management Committee GOVERNANCE

CEPAR ORGANISATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY LEADERS’ CHART COMMITTEE ADVISORY COMMITTEE BOARD FORUM

MENTORING RESEARCH OUTREACH SUBCOMMITTEE SUBCOMMITTEE SUBCOMMITTEE

PROGRAM PROGRAM PROGRAM PROGRAM LEADER LEADER LEADER Decision making Integrating public LEADER System-wide by individuals, and private provision Ageing well and economic, social households of products productively and policy issues and firms and services

international profile of the conference thus providing drawn from a range of fields SCIENTIFIC Centre and identify potential an opportunity for reflecting the Centre’s ADVISORY COMMITTEE international partners and Committee members multidisciplinary nature. The Scientific Advisory linkage opportunities. to engage in depth with Committee provides advice the Centre’s research The Scientific Advisory on the strategic direction of and personnel. Committee will meet for the the Centre from a global first time in 2013. The 2013 The Scientific Advisory perspective, with emphasis meeting will be scheduled to Committee comprises five on research programs. coincide with the Centre’s international leaders in the Members of the Committee inaugural international area of population ageing, will actively build the 11

Professor Gordon Clark, Professor Yasuhiko Saito, Professor Merril Silverstein, National Fellowship CEPAR SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY Oxford University Advanced Research Institute Syracuse University Program, and the Fulbright

COMMITTEE MEMBERS for the Sciences and International Senior Scholars ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Gordon L. Clark DSc FBA is Merril Silverstein, PhD, is the Professor David Bloom, Humanities, Nihon University Program, and currently Professor and Director of inaugural holder of the Harvard School of serves as editor-in-chief of the Smith School of Yasuhiko Saito is a Professor Marjorie Cantor Chair in Public Health the Journal of Gerontology: Enterprise and Environment at the Advanced Research Aging Studies at Social Sciences. David E. Bloom is Clarence at Oxford University, holds a Institute for the Sciences Syracuse University with James Gamble Professor of Professorial Fellowship at St and Humanities at Nihon appointments in the Professor Hans-Werner Sinn,

Economics and Demography Edmund Hall, is the Sir Louis University, Tokyo, Japan. Department of Sociology University of Munich and GOVERNANCE in the Department of Global Matheson Distinguished His areas of specialisation at the Maxwell School of Ifo Group Health and Population, Visiting Professor at Monash are demography, ageing Citizenship and Public Hans Werner-Sinn is Harvard School of Public University’s Faculty of and health. His collaborative Affairs, and in the School Professor of Economics Health and is Director of Business and Economics, work extends throughout of Social Work. He received and Public Finance at the Harvard’s Program on the and is a Visiting Professor at more than 20 countries. his doctorate in sociology University of Munich. Global Demography of Aging. Stanford University. Previous Over the past 10 years, he from Columbia University. He is also the President of He is also a Faculty academic appointments has conducted a five-wave His research primarily Ifo Institute for Economic Research Associate at the have been at Harvard’s national longitudinal survey focuses on ageing within Research and the Director National Bureau of Economic Kennedy School of on ageing and health in the context of family life, of the Centre for Economic Research, an elected Fellow Government, the University Japan. More recently, he including intergenerational Studies at the University of the American Academy of Chicago, Carnegie conducted a national relationships over the of Munich. He is a National of Arts and Sciences, a Mellon’s Heinz School and survey in the Philippines life-course and international Bureau of Economic member of the Boards of Monash University. and supported surveys in perspectives on ageing Research fellow; Directors of PSI and JSI, and His research on the Singapore and India. He is families. He has more than a fellow of the European a member of the Board of investment management currently participating in 140 publications on various Economic Association; Trustees of amfAR. Dr. Bloom industry focuses on the a five country comparative topics in social gerontology, a lifetime member of the is an economist and governance structure and study of centenarians, including the edited books Council of Economic demographer whose work decision making including France, Denmark, Intergenerational Relations Advisors to the German focuses on health, performance of pension Sweden, Switzerland, Across Time and Place, Federal Ministry of demography, education, funds, endowments, and and Japan. Handbook of Theories of Economics; and a member and labour. In recent years, sovereign wealth funds. Aging, and Kin and Cohort of the Bavarian Academy of he has written extensively His research on household in an Aging Society. Sciences, the Northrhine- on primary, secondary, financial decision making He was until 2012 principal Westfalian Academy of and tertiary education in has focused on long-term investigator of the Sciences and the Executive developing countries and saving for retirement Longitudinal Study of Committee of the on the links between utilising theories and Generations, a project that International Economic health status, population methods from the tracked multigenerational Association. His current dynamics, and economic behavioural and social families over four decades, research interests include growth. Dr. Bloom has sciences in the context and has projects in China, public finance, economics of published more than 350 of risk and uncertainty. Sweden, the Netherlands, transition, allocation theory, articles, book chapters, and Israel on topics of risk and insurance, natural and books. ageing and intergenerational resources and trade theory. relations. He is a Fellow of the Gerontological Society of America, the Brookdale GOVERNANCE

CEPAR government and the ADVISORY BOARD not-for-profit sector by LEADERS’ FORUM

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • The chief role of the participating in a range of The Leaders’ Forum provides Advisory Board is to activities which may include: engagement, leadership facilitate two-way and support for CEPAR. •• Serving on a task force engagement between It comprises the CEOs of or working party to stakeholders and some of Australia’s largest examine a specific issue researchers. Board corporations, professional •• Supporting executive The calibre and breadth of representation members provide and community

GOVERNANCE development and independent advice organisations, and senior of this group is strong testimony to the corporate education to the Management federal departmental significance of population ageing as an programs Committee with regard to Secretaries. •• Developing and hosting issue and to the group’s recognition of strategy and external events such as The Forum is a conduit for the need for transformational research relations; facilitate the symposia, fora and industry and government to Centre’s engagement with MARC DE CURE conferences help shape the research relevant stakeholders; •• Participating in agenda on demographic identify new opportunities fundraising and change. Established in 2004 for engagement; and act sponsorship activities to support the Australian as advocates and •• Mentoring staff and Institute for Population champions of CEPAR. researchers Ageing Research at UNSW, it The Board comprises •• Facilitating access to provides high level strategic delegates of organisations data, information or insight and facilitates providing financial support people to facilitate engagement with end users. to CEPAR, along with a research projects The Leaders’ Forum was vital broader membership •• Facilitating the transfer in securing industry and representing research, of knowledge from government support for the policy and community research into practical bid as well as being groups. Members are application in business, instrumental in the appointed by the Director government, or the formulation of the CEPAR in consultation with the not-for-profit sector. research agenda. Together Chair and Management with the Advisory Board, it The Board will meet at Committee, for a term will play an ongoing role in least annually. Additionally, of three years. the engagement process. the Director or Chair will Board members seek meet bilaterally with to both facilitate and individual members to enable the achievement discuss particular issues. of the Centre’s mission The Board met for the first and objectives by bringing time on 22 August 2012. their expertise and experience to bear. Members will play an active role in strengthening links between academe, industry, 13 CEPAR ADVISORY BOARD MEMBERS LEADERS’ FORUM MEMBERS

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 •

MARC DE CURE CHAIR MARC DE CURE CHAIR HELEN BARTLETT Pro Vice-Chancellor and President, Gippsland campus, Monash JENNIFER ALEXANDER Royal Australasian College of Physicians University and Convenor, Emerging Researchers in Ageing Initiative CAMERON CLYNE National Australia Bank STEPHEN BUNKER Research Consultant, Medibank CRAIG DUNN AMP

JOHN CREEDY Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne GOVERNANCE LES FIELD UNSW JONATHAN DEANE General Manager, Group Strategy, AMP JANE HALTON Department of Health and Ageing ALAN DUNCAN Director, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, JEFF HARMER Formerly Department of Families, University of Canberra Housing, Community Services ANNE GORDON Director of Operations, CEPAR and Indigenous Affairs ROB HEFEREN Executive Director, Revenue Group, The Treasury KEN HENRY AC Special Advisor to the Prime Minister CATHERINE NANCE Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers MARK JOHNSON PricewaterhouseCoopers Australia JOHN PIGGOTT Director, CEPAR JOHN LAKER Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority JEROMEY TEMPLE Director, Productive Ageing Centre, National Seniors Australia JOHN PIGGOTT Director, CEPAR EDWARD WHITEHOUSE Principal Administrator, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD MATTHEW QUINN Stockland SERENA WILSON Deputy Secretary, Department of Families, Housing, HEATHER RIDOUT Formerly Australian Industry Group Community Services and Indigenous Affairs GEORGE SAVVIDES Medibank Private REPRESENTATIVE Department of Health and Ageing GLENN STEVENS Reserve Bank of Australia

MARC DE CURE He played a key role in the Group CFO and AMP Group CFO, Marc serves on the Business CHAIR, ADVISORY BOARD establishment of the Leaders’ Executive General Manager Advisory Council and the AND LEADERS’ FORUM Forum in 2004 and, as its Chair, Strategy & Development and Executive Committee of was pivotal in securing industry Executive Director of its main the Australian School of Marc de Cure has long and government support for the operating subsidiaries. Business at UNSW. He holds recognised the social and Centre of Excellence bid in 2010. a Bachelor of Commerce In professional services Marc economic significance of (Honours) from UNSW, a Marc is a listed company was a senior Partner with PwC demographic change and the Master of Wine Quality Director and business advisor including Chairman of the need to undertake and from UWS and is a Fellow of and previously held senior Australian Financial Services promulgate research to inform the Institute of Chartered executive roles in leading practices, and more recently government policy, and social Accountants in Australia. financial and professional he was a Principal Advisor and commercial responses. services groups. He was AIA with Bain & Company. GOVERNANCE

CEPAR The Committee meets formally MENTORING SUBCOMMITTEE OUTREACH SUBCOMMITTEE MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE at least four times a year. The Mentoring The Outreach subcommittee

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • The role of the Management Consultation also takes place subcommittee oversees oversees professional Committee is to oversee via email and teleconferencing. the Honours, Higher Degree education programs, the all operational matters, In 2012, the Committee Research and Early Career distinguished visitors including budget met on 26 April, 28 June, Researcher (ECR) programs program, and monitors the management, approval 15 October and 13 December. and events, and provides production of research of specific major programs, advice on innovation in briefs and other initiatives The Management Committee selection of postdoctoral these arenas. It is focused designed to communicate

GOVERNANCE is supported by three fellows and postgraduate on developing policies research findings to the subcommittees: students, approval of and programs to support wider community. visitors and organisation RESEARCH SUBCOMMITTEE students and ECRs affiliated Three meetings, chaired by of workshops and courses. The research subcommittee is with CEPAR as well as those Chief Investigator Michael In strategic planning, the responsible for reviewing the around the country working Sherris, were held on 4 June, Committee seeks high level progress of the research on ageing issues. 4 September and 5 November advice from the Centre programs on a regular basis, The subcommittee is chaired 2012. Membership comprised Advisory Board, Scientific identifying opportunities for by CEPAR Deputy Director, the Centre Director, the Advisory Committee cross-program collaboration, Peter McDonald and in 2012 Director of Operations plus and Leaders’ Forum. and recommending remedial consisted of the Centre Chief Investigator Kaarin action where required. Director, the Director of Anstey, Associate In 2012, the Committee comprised: Chaired by the Centre Operations plus Associate Investigator Katja Director, its membership Investigators Kate Hanewald and CEPAR’s JOHN PIGGOTT CENTRE DIRECTOR (CHAIR) comprises all the Chief O’Loughlin, Heather Booth, Communications and Investigators and the Lisa Magnani and Daniel Alai Marketing Manager, PETER MCDONALD Deputy Director and Australian Director of Operations. National University Node Leader (ECR representative). Melanie Brake. In 2012, the subcommittee The subcommittee met on HAL KENDIG Chief Investigator and University met on 14 June and 28 May and 30 August, 2012. of Sydney Node Leader 15 October. In addition, ALAN WOODLAND Chief Investigator and University subcommittee members of New South Wales Node Leader joined a range of other CEPAR personnel at an ANNE GORDON Director of Operations intensive one day retreat to discuss research directions and strategy on 6 November 2012. STRUCTURE

CEPAR is based at the All eight Chief Investigators INTEGRATING PUBLIC AND CEPAR University of New South and many of the Centre’s PRIVATE PROVISION OF INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRY AND

Wales (UNSW) with nodes at Associate Investigators are PRODUCTS AND SERVICES UNIVERSITY PARTNERS GOVERNMENT PARTNERS ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • The University of Sydney and based at one of the three Program leader: Our partner investigators are CEPAR is actively engaged the Australian National nodes. Within Australia, Professor Michael Sherris, drawn from world class with a range of influential University (ANU). It is strongly Associate Investigators School of Risk and Actuarial, research schools: government and industry supported by a number of are also based at Flinders Australian School of partners to cooperatively The University of Manchester key government, industry University, Monash Business, University of deliver outcomes to meet and international University, the University of New South Wales The University of Newcastle, the challenges and STRUCTURE university partners. Newcastle and the University AGEING WELL AND United Kingdom opportunities of population of Technology, Sydney. PRODUCTIVELY ageing. These include: The University of Program leader: NODES Nottingham/Institute for The Treasury Professor Hal Kendig, The UNSW node, led by PROGRAM LEADERS Fiscal Studies Ageing, Work & Health Department of Health Scientia Professor Alan The research program is Research Unit, Faculty and Ageing Woodland, is hosted by organised into four different, The Wharton School of Health Sciences, the Australian School but intimately connected, The University of Department of Families, University of Sydney of Business. strands each headed by a Pennsylvania Housing, Community Program Leader. Services and Indigenous The ANU node consists of Affairs teams based in the Centre SYSTEM-WIDE ECONOMIC, Through our internationally based Associate for Research on Ageing, SOCIAL AND POLICY ISSUES NSW Trade and Investment Health and Wellbeing and Program leader: Investigators we are the Australian Demographic Scientia Professor connected to the following AMP key research institutions: and Social Research Alan Woodland, Medibank Institute. Professor Peter School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University McDonald, the Centre’s Australian School of NAB Indira Gandhi Institute of Deputy Director, serves as Business, University PricewaterhouseCoopers ANU Node Leader. of New South Wales Development Research Stockland In 2012 Professor Hal Kendig DECISION MAKING Pennsylvania State led the University of Sydney BY INDIVIDUALS, University Bain & Company HOUSEHOLDS AND FIRMS node which consists of Program leader: Ragnar Frisch Centre for researchers working in the Professor Michael Keane, Economic Research, Oslo Faculty of Health Sciences School of Economics, as well as the School of St Gallen University Australian School of Public Health. In 2013, Business, University University of Naples Professor Robert Cumming of New South Wales Federico II assumes the node leadership following University of Parma Professor Kendig’s move to University of Trieste ANU’s Centre for Research on Ageing, Health and Wellbeing. CENTRE PERSONNEL

CEPAR Professor Lindy Clemson Professor Pradeep Ray CHIEF INVESTIGATORS PARTNER ASSOCIATE Ageing, Work and Health Research Australian School of Business

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 2 Scientia Professor John INVESTIGATORS INVESTIGATORS Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY Piggott (Centre Director) Professor Richard Disney Dr Daniel Alai Dr Renuka Sane Australian School of Business School of Economics Australian School of Business Dr Loretti Isabella Dobrescu INDIRA GANDHI INSTITUTE OF UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM/ UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Australian School of Business DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR FISCAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Professor Peter McDonald Professor Garry Barrett Professor Elizabeth Savage Professor Hanming Fang (Deputy Director) School of Economics A/Professor John Evans Centre for the Study of Choice Department of Economics CENTRE PERSONNEL Australian Demographic and UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY Australian School of Business UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, Social Research Institute UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES SYDNEY AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY Professor Helen Bartlett Professor Carol Jagger Emerging Researchers in Ageing Professor Denzil Fiebig Professor Martin Sliwinski Professor Kaarin Anstey Institute of Ageing and Health (ERA) Initiative Australian School of Business Gerontology Center Centre for Research on Ageing, UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE, UK MONASH UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY Health and Wellbeing AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY Professor Olivia S. Mitchell A/Professor Hazel Bateman Professor Bob Gregory Professor Noriyuki Takayama Wharton School Australian School of Business Institute of Economics Research Professor Robert Cumming College of Business and UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Economics HITOTSUBASHI UNIVERSITY School of Public Health and AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY Centre for Education and Professor James Nazroo A/Professor Heather Booth Professor Peter Whiteford Research on Ageing School of Social Sciences Australian Demographic and Social Dr Katja Hanewald Crawford School of Public Policy UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY Research Institute UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER Australian School of Business AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY Professor Michael Keane UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Dr Tim Windsor Australian School of Business Professor Colette Browning Professor Erik Hernaes School of Psychology UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES School of Primary Health Care Ragnar Frisch Centre for FLINDERS UNIVERSITY MONASH UNIVERSITY Professor Hal Kendig Economic Research UNIVERSITY OF OSLO Ageing, Work and Health Research Professor Monika Bütler 2 Not all Associate Investigators were Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences Department of Economics A/Professor Elisabetta actively involved in the research UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY UNIVERSITY OF ST GALLEN Magnani program in 2012. [Centre for Research on Australian School of Business Ageing, Health and Wellbeing, Professor Julie Byles Australian National University UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES from January 2013] Research Centre for Gender, Health and Ageing Professor Annamaria Olivieri Professor Michael Sherris UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE Department of Economics Australian School of Business Dr Nicolas Cherbuin UNIVERSITY OF PARMA UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Centre for Research on Ageing, Dr Kathleen O’Loughlin Health and Wellbeing Scientia Professor Ageing, Work and Health Research Alan Woodland AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences Australian School of Business Dr Dimitris Christelis UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Centre for Studies in Professor Ermanno Pitacco Economics and Finance Faculty of Economics UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES FEDERICO II UNIVERSITY OF TRIESTE 17

Dr Ramona Meyricke Dr Adeline Tubb Jessica Shanks CEPAR SENIOR RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES RESEARCH ASSISTANTS/ Research Assistant Administrative Assistant

FELLOWS PROJECT MANAGERS (until 30 May 2012) (until 30 November 2012) ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Dr Kerry Sargent-Cox UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH Rafal Chomik Natalia Aranco WALES NODE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Research Assistant Jennifer White Dr Ariane Utomo UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES STUDENTS Dr Fedor Iskhakov Public Information Officer AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY CEPAR affiliated students are UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Craig Blackburn listed on pages 100-106. AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL Dr Yan Yu Research Assistant UNIVERSITY NODE Dr Ralph Stevens AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Margi Woods CENTRE PERSONNEL UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF Commencing 2013: Jacqui Brewer Specialist IT Support Commencing 2013: (until 7 May 2012) Research Assistant Melanie Brake Craig Blackburn Communications and AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL Dr Chris Strickland AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Marketing Manager UNIVERSITY NODE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Catherine Chojenta UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES NODE CEPAR – DECRA Project Manager RESEARCH FELLOWS RESEARCH FELLOWS UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE Amy Brushwood Dr Elena Capatina Administrative Officer Dr Meimanat Heather Crawford UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH Research Assistant Hosseini-Chavoshi WALES NODE Dr Xiaodong Fan AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Christel Cools Dr Cagri Kumru Jun Feng Executive Officer AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY Research Assistant Dr Joelle Fong AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY NODE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Dr Olena Stavrunova Dr J Lynn Francis UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, Philip Haywood Elsabè Edwards SYDNEY UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE Research Assistant Business Manager (until November 2012) Dr Chung Tran AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL Dr Vasant Hirani UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY NODE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY Karla Heese Anne Gordon Dr George Kudrna Research Assistant Director of Operations UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES NODE Dr Vanessa Loh Vasvi Kapadia UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY Research Assistant Jayne Groves UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Program Administrator Dr Bei Lu UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY NODE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Carolyn Njenga Research Assistant Lenny Li Dr Shiko Maruyama (until May 2012) Finance Officer UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES (until 11 December 2012) UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH Adam Wenqiang Shao WALES NODE Research Assistant UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES 2

RESEARCH TRAINING RESEARCH & SECTION

CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

18 STRAND 1 SYSTEM-WIDE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLICY ISSUES

Population ageing has national and global economic, social and policy impacts. It has implications for the economy through changes in wage rates, resource allocation, productivity and growth; for the social fabric in terms of changes in the spatial distribution of the population, the demand for social services and aged care, and social interactions; for financial product markets and retirement provision through changing longevity and morbidity; and for the government through increased expenditures required for age pensions, public health provision and the development of economic and social policy settings. Our research program covers these and other system- wide aspects of population ageing.

TO VIEW PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS RELATING TO THIS RESEARCH VISIT CEPAR.EDU.AU RESEARCH PROJECTS

Work and Care 20

Readiness and Adoption of information and Communication Technologies in Residential Aged Care Coordination 22 Microsimulation Modelling of Family-based Aged Care 23 Attitudes, Ageing and Intergenerational Relations 24

Intergenerational Solidarity and Population Ageing: Attitudes in Europe 25

Australia’s Older Population: Cohort Analysis of Demographic Change 26

Analysing the Effects of Population Ageing in a Demographic Overlapping Generations Model 27 Optimal Capital Income Taxation with Means-tested Benefits 28 Stochastic Demographic Modelling and Forecasting 29 A Ben-Porath Model with Labour Supply and Retirement 30

Postcode-level House Price Risk Analysis for Banking and Insurance Applications 31 Individual House Price Models and House Price Indices 32

Home Equity Release Products Allowing for Idiosyncratic House Price Risk 33

The Financial Impact of Natural Hedging of Longevity Risk for Life Insurers 34

Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Systematic Mortality 35 Modelling Causal Mortality and the Impact of Cause-elimination 36 Mortality Models: Causes of Death and Longitudinal Analysis 37 Does Retirement Age Impact Mortality? 38 Sustainable Full Retirement Age Policies in an Ageing Society 39 Life-cycle Patterns of Health and Income 40

Long-term Fiscal Projections and the Australian Retirement Income System 41 Handbook in Population Ageing 42

Ageing in Australia: Challenges and Opportunities 44 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 19

LONGEVITY RISK, MORTALITY PROJECTIONS AND LONGEVITY RISK MANAGEMENT Several focus projects on this related set of issues, on drawing actuarial and economic, expertise.demographic • In addition, Centre been personnel have twocentrally in involved important books. edited One focuses on various aspects of ageing in Australia. The other togetherbrings international academic, practicepolicy and perspectives various on aspects demographic of change, its causes, and its consequences. •

TOWARDS AGEING TOWARDS concern growing There is that negative attitudes people older towards older on impacting are people, both in the the workplace in and community. wider the Relatedly, relationship between to seen is generations increasing under be stress populations as Surveyage. is analysis determineundertaken to precisely themore covariatesnature and theseof phenomena, contributionsincluding from economics and sociology. SOCIAL ATTITUDES • Other research, analysing processthe demographic of itssocial and change environment, focused on: •

OF POLICYOF REFORM INDUCED BY AN AGEING DEMOGRAPHIC LABOUR ON SUPPLY AND SAVING Understanding how welfare is economic policy by impacted interventions a is researchchallenging task. Cutting-edge models, incorporating overlapping generations stochasticand processes, are used to assess reform, pension a within sometimes policy context.broader ECONOMY WIDE MODELLING, TAKING OVERLAPPING OF ACCOUNT TO GENERATIONS, IMPACTS THE ANALYSE • •

Economics, Sociology, Sociology, Economics, Systems Information Demography. and significance as well. With reform pension many underwaywell in countries, new the frontier population of care. aged is ageing conflictThe between the care, and work use of IT in aged care the and coordination, family-based of role aged care all receive specific attention, with perspectives from AGED CARE POLICY CARE AGED REFORM, FROM BOTH THE CLIENT AND CARER PERSPECTIVES This is a highly relevant topic in the Australian context, because it is such an active area of policy formulation. But it has global SYSTEM-WIDE ECONOMIC, SOCIALAND POLICY ISSUES • Policy-related research in in research Policy-related included: 2012 •

Demographic change is change Demographic necessarily system- strand is this and wide, therefore largest. the change itself, the itself, change associated environment forecastingand issues. based policy research is strands.) other reported in alsoIt encompassed demographic research into and into changes in society driven by an ageing narrowlypopulation. (More Research in the system- research strandwide this research embraced year into broad policy initiatives,

STRAND 1 STRAND 2

and the and Journal of the Do the relationships between caregiving, healthwork, and differ across gender? thesedo How relationships compare across different groups of women (e.g., blue versus white collar workers)? policy provisions Do benefit certain groups while disadvantaging others? Australasian Journal Journal of Gerontology:Social Sciences. the on Ageing, Population Ageing 5 4

Ageing and Society, offer any flexibility for need caregivers who to leave the workforce? whatTo extent do cross-national differences retirement in schemes on impact caregivers’ work choices? caregiving do How activities work and statusinteract to affect other forms of productivity, and health, financial stability in a context?cross-national Do retirement schemesDo Professor Kendig is a Fellow Social Academy of the of Australia,Sciences in Fellow Gerontological the Societyof America,of Fellow Foundation Australian the of Epidemiology founding Association a and Global the of member Board Ageing. InitiativeSocial on He serves on the Editorial Boards of aged care, attitudes, care, aged health health, and services, men’s international comparisons. 2 3 The specific research questions being addressed include: 1

national national Ageing, Health, and Wellbeing Health, and Ageing, (CRAHW) in the Research Population of Health.School He is a CEPAR Chief Investigator serving on the Committee;Management healthy on research leading productive and and ageing determinantssocial health of life the over course; and collaborating research in on Ageing and Public Policy at the Australian University National in the Centre for Research on interplay between work its caregiving and and health, with relationships wellbeing. wealth and This will be achieved cross-sectionalthrough analyses Australian of data on work and caregiving as well as comparative analyses English with the Longitudinal Study of Ageing and other available.data where the examines project The worknexus between paid the caregiving and and individuals, on impact broader the and families economy with a particular boomer baby the on focus cohort gendered the and nature of caregiving. The specific aims of the how determine to are project circumstancesindividual economic and social and the impact policy can

collaborative network to work towards sustainability in policy-relevant population ageing research. To buildTo international comparative knowledge and workers older on caregiving inform to global initiatives in socio-economic policies; establish an To international and Work Research Unit at Universitythe Sydney. of In January 2013, he was Professorappointed of PROFESSOR HAL KENDIG AB UC Davis, MPl PhD USC, FASSA INVESTIGATOR CHIEF Professor Kendig is a gerontologist.sociologist and he 2012 December Until served as Professor ofAgeing Population and Health and as Head of the Ageing, Health The Work and Care project has two key objectives: 1 2

between and them, ageing impacts on and individuals, families, economy. broader the societal and policy contextsocietal and and influences work paid caregiving, transitions yet they are inadequately are they yet researched understood. and Policymakers to need better the understand how central to global capacities global central to respond constructivelyto population ageing rapid to HAL KENDIG HAL Workforce participation informal caregiving areand RESEARCHERS KATE O’LOUGHLIN VANESSA LOH WORK AND CARE

CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

20 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 21

Preliminary findings indicate caregiving is associated with lower levels of paid poorerwork and health and wellbeing CEPAR has also helped me in career and my developing providing by skills research opportunitythe attend to participate severaland in conferences, workshops, by organised seminars and affiliated other and CEPAR researchers.’ other researchersother from a with disciplines of range researchsimilar interests.

presented at the SymposiumGlobal on Approaches Policy to Supporting and Work Care in Late Middle Age, 20th IAGG World Congress Gerontology of Geriatrics, 23-27 and Seoul, Korea. 2013, June CEPAR-sponsored conferencepost-IAGG June) (28-29 seminar togetherthat bring will invited international scholars present to research around their caregiving and work paid varyingin geographic, social, and economic political contexts. papers Peer-reviewed from the seminar will be published in a Special Edition of Ageing and Society. Paper titled ‘ReflectionsPaper Australianon and Zealand policyNew initiatives the in interface between be to care’ and work Fellow has enabled me to interests research my extend from and individual organisational factors work in retirement broader to and population ageing issues in and healthy and research Working productive ageing. with CEPAR has provided me opportunity unique with the to collaborate and meet with and CEPAR-affiliated both other productive activities. activities. productive other ‘My work as a CEPAR Research 3 2

Second internationalSecond workers Older workshop - caregiving: Statisticaland UK,evidence from the Australia, Canada and Zealand, UniversityNew of Sydney, 14-15 the February Since 2013. the Leeds workshop, collaborating partners have been working to bring existingtogether the data sources from each country based on an agreed set of variables. secondcore The workshop will allow us to alsofurther and work this timeframe and a plan publication schedule cross-national the for comparisons. completed her PhD in Psychology University the at of Sydney in 2010. researchHer interests include psychosocial,the individual environmentaland predictors determinants healthyand of productiveand ageing, retirement, and work and adults’older continuing contributions via paid work and Macquarie University.Macquarie She Liberal Bachelor of a obtained Studies (International) and expand the collaborativeexpand the following the focus through planned activities: 1 NEXT STAGE In 2013 we plan to cross-commence the comparisons,national disseminate findings and

psychology at research fellow fellow research Work Participation,Work 2012 October Canberra, 24 International workshop and workers Older - caregiving: Statistical UK,evidence from the Australia Canada, and International for Centre Research on Care, Inequalities,Labour and University of Leeds, UK, May21-22 2012 FaHCSIA Roundtable on January 2012 after working as postdoctorala organisational in the School of Psychology at DR VANESSA LOH Syd. PhD (Hons), BLibStudies(Int) RESEARCH FELLOW Vanessa Loh is a CEPAR Research Fellow located in the Ageing, Work and Health Research Unit, in the Faculty of Health Sciences, at the University of in CEPAR joined She Sydney. The findings from this cross-sectional examination caregiving are and work of prepared for being now retrospective A publication. examination of caregiving across histories work and the life course and their and health on impact wellbeing at late middle -age is now under way. These findings were at: presented 1 2

are importantare factors. different and men for ways caregivingwomen; workload and/or levels of caregiving with lower levels of paid and health poorer and work wellbeing; and work caregiving intersect in work and caregiving. and work Preliminary findings indicate associatedcaregiving is (N=1269). The(N=1269). survey of range a items on included life history health and related variables including administered to a sample of a to administered 60-64 year olds drawn from the NSW 45 and Up Study on work and caregiving was carried out. The data came from Life the 2011–12 History Survey Health and OUTCOMES ACHIEVEDOUTCOMES In 2012 cross-sectional Australian of analysis data

Services Patient Clinical trialswill facility to test the be conductedbe a in Healthcare Research membersCentre (APUHC) HSAGlobal the team and built a prototype system for aged care by configuring HSAGlobal the platform. CCMS residential care aged Management platform Care Industry to Council IT strategic long-term develop a IT plan for the aged care Australia.sector in This has led to the ongoing collaborative$1million initiative on aged care and involving academic industry organisations in Australia, Zealand, New UK and USA. on telemedicine. Under Under telemedicine. on his leadership, APuHC was invited in 2010 by the Aged The next phase will involve in-depth interviews with staffHammondCare and finalise the to workers care target the of requirements collaborative platform. care This project is jointly funded by CEPAR, Smart Services CRC, HSAGlobal, HammondCare APuHC. the and

Sources included relevant government federal the at policies and state levels, forms HammondCare by used informal discussionsand with HammondCare stakeholders. a Second, systematic literature review was conducted by researchers from multiple health,disciplines (public systems, information and computer science analyse to management) the evidence of ICT careapplications aged for developed world. the in Third, the software specifications the for platform care aged were developed. Fourth, Asia-Pacific ubiquitous Phase 1 involved four major steps. First, careinformation aged on services from multiple analysed.sources was • assessment of eHealth for Health Care Delivery (eHCD) led establishment the to the of CollaboratingWHO Centre on eHealth at UNSW. Pradeep is the Chair of the eHealth Committee of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) SocietyCommunication and spokesman global IEEE the His work on the WHO project countries four (involving in the on Asia-Pacific) the •

Collaborative Care Management Solution (CCMS) Phase 2 (from Oct2012) the involves construction a of prototype Patient Services Management Platform (PSMP) that can be taken into a clinical trial to test the impact of a new PSM on patient care outcomes. Clinical conductedtrials be will in a residential aged care facility to test the PSMP and develop the software requirements collaborative a for care platform that in deployed be can residential any environment.care This model has been has model This realised as a proof-of- concept prototype using HSAGlobal softwarean platform called • (healthcare using information(healthcare using communication and involving technologies) organisations,global industry in academia and NorthAustralia, Europe, Asia.America and He leads a number of collaborative research eHealthprojects on •

of elderly patients. patients. elderly of care services;care and build a prototype system for aged services.care Phase 1 (completed in Oct 2012) resulted in the creation of a new ServicesPatient Model (PSM) to improve care delivery efficacy and specific “grouping” a for understand service delivery in models residential care; collect analyse and the evidence of ICT applications in care;aged an apply and develop requirements ICT framework aged for • • • • • Healthcare Research Centre Centre Research Healthcare (APuHC) at the University of New South Wales. PROFESSOR PRADEEP RAY BTech BHU-IT, India; MTech IIT, Kanpur, India; PhD UTS INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Pradeep Ray is a Professor of Information Systems at the Australian Business of School and the Director of the Asia-Pacific ubiquitous • This project is being two phases:undertaken in • This collaborativeThis project aims to: • • •

that implementation assess the impact impact assess the Australia to identify the implementation, ICT for need and to of ICT interventions. delivery of care. However, few conducted been studies have in aged care settings in reduced management and management reduced costs,administration reduced staff improved turnover and client satisfaction with the care increases productivity generatesdirectly and benefitsindirect through of Information and Communication aged in (ICT) Technologies suggest projected to increase at a faster rate. A number of international studies Australia has been witnessing for demand increasing an aged care services. As the is this population ages, RESEARCHER PRADEEP RAY AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES (ICT) AND COMMUNICATION COORDINATION CARE AGED RESIDENTIAL IN READINESS AND ADOPTION OF INFORMATION

CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

22 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 23

to informingto the future on burden family members and feasibilityongoing current of community- care based The aim is to understand how marriage,changing fertility (including childlessness) and longevity determine both the supply of for demand and careaged within families, with a view

investigator on the AWAP- collaborativefunded DYNOPTA project which combines data from Australian multiple ageing. studies longitudinal of She also coordinates the InterdisciplinaryANU Microsimulation Project. Heather Social leads the ProjectNetworks Ageing and (2010–2013) and is a lead also a major undertaking. major also a procedure complex This simplified. now is This project (2012–2014) is supported by the ANU College Arts of Social and Sciences for funding interdisciplinary research. The installationThe and testing of the software for two demographic the microsimulation systems (SOCSIM and CAMSIM) was

and wellbeing, the and and family-based of provision care.informal aged Other related interests are stochastic mortality modelling forecasting, stochasticand population forecasting, mortality, microsimulation and older the modelling of Australian population. Heather’s research interests interests research Heather’s social include ageing in networks, health self-rated tailored workshopstailored led each by the world expert on that system. week three The SOCSIM the workshop on SystemMicrosimulation was led by Professor Mike Murphy of School London from the Economics. second The was workshop three-week led by Jim Oeppen from the Max Planck Institute for Research, Demographic and covered the CAMSIM SystemMicrosimulation its application.and involvesMicrosimulation heavy data demands, and the data required demographic for microsimulation span 200 years. Compiling the database simulation the for is a major project activity. dynamic microsimulation systems, SOCSIM and CAMSIM, to Australia and has built capacity in their use two application through and

at the Australian the at National University. leads the She Longevity,ADSRI on Group Mortality. and Ageing early 2012. The project has twobrought sophisticated ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR HEATHER BOOTH London, (Hons) BSc(Econ) London Southampton,MSc PhD INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE AssociateHeather Booth is Professor at the Australian Social and Demographic Institute (ADSRI) Research and structure of kin- and community–based past, the populations in present and future’. The goal of this larger project is to build capacity in dynamic apply to microsimulation and it to major research questions in the interface between anthropology, economic and demography history. The first phase of the project – capacity building – was completed in feasibility of current current of feasibility community-based care. Contrasts between different kin structures will be explored. Specialist software demographic for microsimulation (SOCSIM) employed. is The project is part of a larger research ‘Using project dynamic microsimulation to understand evolution the aged care within families, with a view to informing the future burden on family ongoing and members (including childlessness) and longevity the both determine for demand and of supply the families of older aim The individuals (demand). understand how to is fertility marriage, changing structures toexamine the availability (supply) of carers kin-relationshipby within carers to older individuals. older carers to studyThis uses population- based microsimulation to model detailed family macro-models of care take take care macro-models of account heterogeneity of no in the availability of family Community-based care aged places considerable responsibility family. the on population-based Traditional RESEARCHER HEATHER BOOTH OF FAMILY-BASED AGED CARE FAMILY-BASED OF MICROSIMULATIONMODELLING ATTITUDES, AGEING AND INTERGENERATIONAL RELATIONS

CEPAR RESEARCHERS workplace and in the poor A research program currently OUTCOMES ACHIEVED NEXT STAGE quality of care experienced in underway is investigating

HAL KENDIG The work was presented at a 1 Building on the ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • COLETTE BROWNING the health system. issues of ageing and number of conferences relationship established attitudes. Our project aims KATE O’LOUGHLIN The Australian Government including the International by O’Loughlin and Kendig to determine the influence KARLA HEESE aims to increase productivity Federation on Ageing’s 11th with the Australian of attitudes specific to the Global Conference on Ageing, Human Rights External collaborator by encouraging people to different life situations of the Annual Scientific Meeting Commission, a linkage MERRIL SILVERSTEIN work longer (Productivity older workers, recent of the Gerontological Society proposal for further (CEPAR SCIENTIFIC Commission, 2005) and to retirees, and those in of America, the International work on attitudes and RESEARCH ADVISORY COMMITTEE) limit health and social advanced old age and expenditure in order to Sociological Association age discrimination is identify societal attitudes reduce fiscal costs Forum in Buenos Aires and being explored The rights and self-respect of to ageing, intergenerational associated with rapid the 45th Australian 2 Further journal articles older people depend largely justice, and related policies. population ageing over the Association of Gerontology are expected to be on their ‘social treatment’ in Analysis of the 2009 coming decades (IGR, 2010). National Conference. produced everyday life, but there is Australian Social Survey of However, these actions will We are currently 3 Plans are being growing evidence that they Attitudes (AuSSA) data is depend heavily on the investigating retirement developed for possible face negative attitudes and underway on the attitudes practices of employers and and workforce participation data collection for the discrimination that limits of different age groups, governments. The Age issues for those aged 2015 AuSSA. We will their contributions and possible social and economic Discrimination Act (2004) 50-64 years, including age examine in greater wellbeing. Negative views on influences on them, and how aims to address these discrimination. In September, depth ageing people’s ageing are increasing along they relate to political and problems but there is little Professor Kendig and experiences and with rising public concerns social views relevant to older evidence to date on its colleagues from the Ageing perceptions of ageist about the costs to people (e.g. support (or not) effectiveness or on the Work and Health Research treatment as well as government of an ageing for raising the pension age knowledge required to guide Unit co-hosted a Sydney younger people’s population (The Treasurer’s eligibility to 67 years). Intergenerational Report effective action against age Ideas lecture with the Age experiences and (IGR)). Negative attitudes are discrimination and promote Discrimination Commissioner, perceptions that considered to be a major positive attitudes the Hon. Susan Ryan AO. may give rise to them. factor for older people in the towards ageing.

PROFESSOR COLETTE BROWNING She is recognised as a national Her research focuses on University Centre for Ageing BSc (Hons) MSc Monash, and international leader in healthy ageing and improving and Health Services. She PhD La Trobe psychology and health. quality of life for older people, is a member of the China ASSOCIATE INVESTIGATOR Professor Browning is a Fellow chronic disease self- Family Panel Study of the Australian Psychological management and consumer Advisory Committee. Colette Browning is Professor Society. Together with Hal involvement in health care Professor Browning has of Healthy Ageing and Director Kendig, she co-directs the decision making. She leads a published widely in major of the Monash Research for an Melbourne Longitudinal large program of research in international journals and Ageing Society and Director of Studies on Healthy Ageing China on chronic illness is the series editor with Primary Care Research in the program. Previously she management supported by Professor Shane Thomas, School of Primary Health Care, convened the Healthy Ageing the China Ministry of Health. for a forthcoming book Monash University. theme of the Australian ARC/ She is an Honorary Professor series on Healthy Ageing NHMRC Research Network at Peking University and is for Springer Publishing. in Ageing Well. Co-director of the Peking CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 25

and is and

The Journal of Journal of Pension and moneybetween and generations works best in times of demographic balance Population ageing placingis intergenerational solidarity under stress. The two-way of timeexchange Department Insurance and of Management, WhartonRisk Business, University of School Pennsylvania.of serves reviewJohn book as editor of the Zhejiang University, China, and from 2008–2010 was Visiting Scholar with the Economics and Financean Associate Editor of thenew Elsevier journal, the Economics of Ageing. stage. We are aiming to have a draft at the stagesubmission in the first half of 2013. attitudes solidarity towards between generations. Statistical now is analysis are we and complete, moving to the writing up

For nearly a decade, from 1999, he worked with the Japanese Level) on Government (Cabinet population ageing and pension issues, and in 2004 was tasked with evaluating Bank World reformassistance pension on in the Asian region for the Evaluation Operations Bank’s Department. In 2007 he was Visiting Professor,appointed and the Australian the Ministerialand AdvisorySuperannuation Committee (2007–2011). in Paris. Both authors were involvedpreparing in papers briefing background on IGS, which was one of three major topics discussed at the meetings. In the time married have we since, attitudinal (Eurobarometer survey data) and economic data from more than 20 (OECD countries Europe in databases), to examine whether imbalances at the level of the nation, economicgenerated by demographic policy and shift are related to national are indeed affecting indeed are IGS. of perceptions The project had its origins in the April 2011 OECD Social Security Ministerial meetings

chapters in books, which have which books, chapters in leading the in appeared international academic journals as well as in highly conferencecited volumes. co-authored has he addition, In by published both two books, UniversityCambridge Press. experience policy includesHis Henry the both of membership (2008–2009) Panel Review Tax finance, and in public finance. public in and finance, more publications include His than 90 journal articles and time and money between money and time generations best works in demographic of times economic and balance.Social also imperil might changes IGS. Greater labour force participation women of well as complex more and smaller weaken families as betweenbonds family reduce and members opportunities informal for caring. This project unites two new databases to and whether, determine social demographic, how, changes economic and smoothly as conduits forsmoothly as intergenerational exchange. isPopulation ageing stress. under IGS placing The two-way exchange of

He has a long standing retirementinterestand in and economics pension SCIENTIA PROFESSOR PIGGOTT JOHN BA Syd., MSc PhD Lond., FASSA DIRECTOR CENTRE Scientia Piggott is John Professor Economics of Australian ARC and Professorial Fellow in the Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales. because intergenerational investment irreversible – is education example, for returned. IGScannot be trust the embodies necessary to ensure that these non-market exchange of mechanisms work to continue family care for older people. older for care family perspectiveThis IGS on and social highlights policy issues.economic The family and the only the government are ensure can that institutions intergenerational this works. market The exchange is not able to do so because unborn the and minors contracts,cannot and sign

protection. Backwards, to to Backwards, protection. are generations, older and public and pensions, towards youngertowards investments are generations, infrastructure,in innovation environmentaland generation gains from such gains generation exchanges. They can go in Forwards, directions. both exchanges betweenexchanges generations. Because needs and resources vary across the life-cycle, each a means to an end: a supporting for mechanism mutually beneficial ‘Intergenerational solidarity’‘Intergenerational (IGS) means different things different thisto In people. project, we view IGS as ED WHITEHOUSE ED BOARD) ADVISORY (CEPAR RESEARCHERS PIGGOTTJOHN External collaborator POPULATIONAGEING: ATTITUDES EUROPE IN INTERGENERATIONAL SOLIDARITY AND AND SOLIDARITY INTERGENERATIONAL

dwellings Prizefor Book of the Year of Iran, of Islamic Republic the 2010. in benefit will Meimanat from involvement with CEPAR her her of expansion through knowledge understanding and of ageing issues in Australia. She has a strong publication a has She record and has received a World the award, book major the geographicthe

80 years over and The analysis shows the next 15 years of living non-private in persons 80 and aged and proportionsand aged 65 years over and and over, and the numbers the and over, distribution of persons the expected growth in aged 80 years aged over, and aged 65 years aged over, and with various scholarswith various on different projects funded by such agencies as the Wellcome Trust, World Health Organization, Global Development Network, and Research, Economic, Gender, Policy Analysis.and Over the past five years, in addition to her work at the collaborated has ADSRI, she

as Head of the Population and Health Data Unit, and as a Senior Officer of Family Health. She was the focal designing, person for point data and implementing severalanalysis of national health surveys in the areas of health and demographic issues, fertility transition, adolescents, ageing. and ANU, she had a longstanding a had she ANU, career with the Iran Ministry of Education Medical and Health The geographic level used in this analysis is the S3 level. analysis theThe shows distributiongeographic of years and 65 persons aged over, years and 80 aged over, and the expected growth in the next 15 years of persons aged 80 and over. It also and numbers the shows proportions years 65 aged years 80 and over and and over living in non- private dwellings. proportionsThe aged have over years and 65 Analysis mapped. been continues the of constructionthe of Australian population multiple by ages older at characteristics. So far, an analysis has analysis an far, So the completed of been distributiongeographic of Australia persons in asolder Census. 2011 the by shown

values and attitudesvalues and Australians. older of and sourcesand wealth education and historieswork labour force participation expenditure patterns in engagement and volunteering community activity and leisure activitiesrecreational ethnic background ethnic citizenship and location, housing living arrangementsand extended family situation andhealth disability status level income • • • • • • • • • • • • (ADSRI) at the Australian the at (ADSRI) University.National to Prior graduate education ather • HOSSEINI-CHAVOSHI MEIMANAT DR BS (Public Health) Isfahan University Sciences, Medical of PhD Studies) (Population MA ANU (Demography) RESEARCH FELLOW Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi is a CEPAR Research Fellow in Australianthe Demographic Research Institute Social and • • • • • • The projections will projections The determine: • • • • •

over the thirty-year the over period, 2011–2041. source; and project a same the selection of characteristics the of Australian population aged older populationolder from different available databases in a single objectives are to compile the patternsdemographic a of socio-economic of range characteristics Australia’s of structure of Australia’s Australia’s of structure nextpopulation the through several decades. The HOSSEINI-CHAVOSHI This study aims to generate evolving the of projections RESEARCHERS MCDONALD PETER MEIMANAT COHORT ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AUSTRALIA’S OLDER POPULATION:

CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

26 ANALYSING THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION AGEING IN A DEMOGRAPHIC OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL

RESEARCHERS The aim of this project is to Accounting for realistic We plan to use the model CEPAR develop a framework to study demographic transition to examine the sensitivity

GEORGE KUDRNA ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • CHUNG TRAN the effects of the dynamic paths allows us to capture of the economic and fiscal ALAN WOODLAND evolution of the more accurately interactions effects of ageing with age structure for the between demographic shift respect to different Australian economy. and economic factors. assumptions about Australia, like most other Preliminary results indicate fertility, mortality and net developed countries, has Our demographic OLG model that while aggregate output immigration rates, and to an ageing population, which consists of a population will increase due to the analyse relevant policy is attributed to falling model with demographic RESEARCH larger population, output per questions, including tax mortality and fertility. projections and an economic capita will decrease mainly and pension reforms. We Projected mortality general equilibrium model. because of the negative also plan to incorporate improvements in the next few The population projection effects of population ageing interactions between decades will lead to further model has already been fitted on per capita labour supply. parents and children into The results indicate ageing. The size of Australia’s with the input data on The government will need to the model structure, with population is also expected fertility, mortality and net that while aggregate increase taxes in the future parents incurring costs of to increase. This immigration rates derived output will increase in order to maintain a raising children and also demographic development from the Productivity due to the larger balanced budget with deriving utility from will have significant Commission’s MoDEM 2.0. substantially larger children’s consumption. population, output macroeconomic implications. The economic model is an age-related expenditures. per capita will Fiscal reform will inevitably extended version of that It is expected that this decrease mainly form part of the overall policy developed by Kudrna and research will generate response to demographic Woodland (2011) that includes working papers and because of the change, but formulating such a richer fiscal structure with publications. negative effects of policy response requires a public expenditures on population ageing solid understanding of the health, education, aged on per capita care, family benefits and evolution of demographic labour supply structure and its interaction the Age Pension. with economic activity.

SCIENTIA PROFESSOR Woodland’s primary research He is the recipient of the Woodland has been a Reserve ALAN WOODLAND interests and publications are Distinguished Economist Bank of Australia Fellow in BA PhD UNE, FASSA, FES in the areas of international Award of the Economics Economic Policy and a Senior CHIEF INVESTIGATOR AND trade theory, applied Society of Australia. He is an Fulbright Fellow. He is also on UNSW NODE LEADER econometrics and population Associate Editor of the Review the scientific boards of the ageing. He has published in of International Economics, a European Trade Study Group Alan Woodland is Scientia leading journals including past editor of the Economic (ETSG), Asia Pacific Trade Professor of Economics and ARC Econometrica, Review of Record, and is currently on the Seminars (APTS), Australasian Australian Professorial Fellow in Economic Studies, Journal of editorial boards of Empirical Trade Workshop (ATW) and the the School of Economics Econometrics and Journal of Economics, the International Dynamics, Economic Growth, within the Australian School International Economics. Journal of Economic Theory and International Trade (DEGIT) of Business at the University and the Economic Record. Research Centre. of New South Wales.

may have a have may similar effect that a publicly contingent upon or capitalor income to the conjecture holdings ofholdings capital This leads naturally funded pension age

international journal early in 2013. has now been presented at international of number a conferences seminars, and Dynamics, the including Growth,Economic and (DEGIT) International Trade Milan, Conference, 2012 final A 2012. September version was presented at two international conferences Taiwan. in We expectto submit our quality high a to paper This project was initiated in early 2011. An early version of the paper was presented at the Second LeeX International Conference Theoretical on Experimentaland Macroeconomics, Barcelona, JuneSpain, 2011. in Feedback led to substantial changes, and a revised draft

means-tested pension has pension means-tested effects similar to capital income taxation in a context. life-cycle productivity pension and entitlement. preliminary Our suggestfindings that a We formalise this using a with model stochastic OLG individualsmultiple differentiated labour by contingent upon holdings of holdings contingent upon capitalcapital income or may have a similar effect. complement with retirement leads naturally This leisure. to the conjecture that a pension publicly funded age income taxationincome et (Conesa al. (2009)), predicated on the idea that capital is a model, calibrated to the UK literature Recent economy. suggestedhas a rehabilitation capital of means-tested age pension pension age means-tested in the context of an overlapping generations This project studies the betweeninteraction capital income taxation and a RESEARCHERS KUMRU CAGRI PIGGOTTJOHN WITH MEANS-TESTED BENEFITS MEANS-TESTED WITH OPTIMAL CAPITAL INCOME TAXATION TAXATION INCOME CAPITAL OPTIMAL

CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

28 STOCHASTIC DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING AND FORECASTING

RESEARCHER defined by past experience. The gap would never be CEPAR For example, forecasts of closed, nor is it forecast to

HEATHER BOOTH male and female mortality diverge. In comparison, ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • External collaborators are constrained such that comparable independent ROB HYNDMAN male mortality exceeds forecasts produce higher HAN LIN SHANG female mortality in line male than female life FARAH YASMEEN with past experience. expectancy by 2100. (ALL MONASH UNIVERSITY) The product-ratio method A similar pattern is LEONIE TICKLE for coherent forecasting obtained for life

(MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY) RESEARCH takes the relationship expectancy at other ages. between subpopulations For Australia, the Application to age-state- This ongoing research into account by coherent forecasts specific mortality rates for project addresses methods, incorporating structural Australia using data for suggest that the sex development and dependencies, so that 1950–2003 demonstrates gap in life expectancy applications in stochastic mortality for each the flexibility of the coherent demographic modelling and subpopulation is forecast at birth will decrease method. The ranking of forecasting. The approach while also taking into by diminishing states by life expectancy is based on functional account the mortality amounts, reaching at the beginning of the principal components experience of all other forecast period is not two years by the end models with time series subpopulations. Evaluations necessarily maintained, as of the century forecasting. The focus of of the method demonstrate structural dependencies methods development is that the coherent forecasts relate to ratios of age- mortality forecasting. are at least as accurate in specific rates with The refined methods are overall terms as comparable changing influences in life also applied to fertility and independent forecasts, expectancy calculations. migration, enabling and that forecast accuracy fully-stochastic population is homogenised across Current research focuses on forecasting. France and subpopulations. Coherent forecast accuracy. Australia are examples. forecasts are clearly Does subdividing a New cohort forecasts advantageous in population population by sex (within of mortality have also forecasting where state) or by state (within sex) been produced by Tickle subpopulations are involved. produce the more accurate and Booth. forecasts for subpopulations The method has been defined by sex and state? Building on earlier research, applied to populations by A planned extension of the a ‘coherent’ method for sex and to populations by method is to subdivide forecasting the mortality of state. For Australia, the populations by two or more subpopulations has been coherent forecasts suggest 3 dimensions, with application developed . Coherent that the sex gap in life by sex and state. forecasts for expectancy at birth will subpopulations are decrease by diminishing 3 Rob Hyndman, Heather Booth and constrained within broad amounts, reaching two years Farah Yasmeen (online 10 October structural relationships 2012) Coherent mortality by the end of the century. forecasting: the product-ratio among subpopulations as method with functional time series models. Demography, 50. A BEN-PORATH MODEL WITH LABOUR SUPPLY AND RETIREMENT

CEPAR RESEARCHER A substantial research not likely to be attractive to We estimate the model using XIAODONG FAN effort has focused on many workers as wages will the Method of Simulated

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • quantitatively estimating be expected to further Moments (MSM), matching External collaborators the economic consequences decline from 65 to 67. It is the wage and hours profiles ANANTH SESHADRI of an ageing population and assumed that such policy from the Panel Study of CHRISTOPHER TABER evaluating policy response. changes will also affect the Income Dynamics (PSID) (BOTH WISCONSIN) In much of this work, the age-wage profile. If one is data. After estimating the wage process is taken expecting an NRA of age baseline model, we conduct The economic and social as given and the focus 67 instead of age 65 and two sets of counterfactual RESEARCH consequences of population is on retirement itself. retiring later is optimal, policy experiments. In the We find in both ageing are issues For example, when then he or she will certainly first experiment we remove counterfactual confronting most nations. conducting counterfactual try to keep their wage high the Social Security earnings As populations age, many experiments involving during the extra working test which applies to ages policy experiments, developed and developing delaying the Social Security time. Omitting these effects 62 to 70. In the second workers invest more countries are suffering from Normal Retirement Age (NRA) will likely generate bias in experiment we delay the in their human declining labour supply as from age 65 to age 67, all the the counterfactual policy NRA two years (from age capital at older well as increasing pressure previous literature takes the experiments. 65 to 67). We find in both ages, which leads to on social security and same age-wage profile as counterfactual policy In this paper, we incorporate pension systems. In the the baseline model where experiments, workers invest an increase of more endogenous wage United States, with the the NRA is 65 and re- more in their human capital than 20% in wages formation to fill this gap. ageing of the baby boom estimates retirement at older ages, which leads and over 60% in We develop and estimate a generation, these have behaviour in the new to an increase of more than Ben-Porath human capital labour force become some of the most environment where the NRA 20% in wages and over 60% model in which workers participation rates significant issues facing is 67. As wages have already in labour force participation make consumption, near retirement policymakers. The US been declining significantly rates near retirement. human capital investment, Government, like most others approaching the previous labour supply and in the world, is seeking the NRA of 65, under the new retirement decisions. most efficient solution to policy of NRA at 67 working is these challenges.

DR XIAODONG FAN His research interests include ‘Working at CEPAR provides BE ME Tsinghua, MS UTexas Austin, Labour Economics, Applied me with a great opportunity MS PhD Wisconsin-Madison Microeconomics, and to focus on my research in RESEARCH FELLOW Computational Economics. the next few years, as well as His current research studies opening up windows to ageing Xiaodong Fan is a CEPAR the determinants of labour related policy analysis.’ Research Fellow located in supply and retirement in the the Australian School of life-cycle context, as well Business at the University of as policy evaluations. New South Wales. He joined

the Centre in September 2012

after graduating with a PhD in

Economics from the University

of Wisconsin-Madison. POSTCODE-LEVEL HOUSE PRICE RISK ANALYSIS FOR BANKING AND INSURANCE APPLICATIONS

RESEARCHERS The project shows how capture the cross-sectional characteristics included in CEPAR house price risk models that heterogeneity observed in the model. An alternative The results from this

KATJA HANEWALD ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • MICHAEL SHERRIS combine the time-series and house prices at the model uses socio- model show that cross-sectional dimensions postcode level. Variable demographic characteristics higher house price of the data can be used to slope parameters quantify observed in the census House price uncertainty growth is observed in improve the analysis of risks how house prices in years 1981–2006. The presents a substantial risk postcode areas with in a range of financial different postcode areas results from this model to private and institutional products. A comprehensive vary with the market house show that higher house increasing average investors and to the large analysis of house prices is price index. The sensitivity price growth is observed income levels and financial sector providing RESEARCH provided based on of house price growth to the in postcode areas with where the population housing-related financial postcode-level data for market index is higher for increasing average income products such as mortgage gets younger Sydney. House price growth areas with higher growth levels and where the loans; equity release is found to vary considerably rates. These are typically population gets younger. products, including reverse across postcode areas and postcode areas located The models developed and mortgages and home exhibits very large variations close to the city centre. compared are relevant for reversion schemes; over short time horizons actuarial, banking and asset-backed securities; Panel data models were with standard deviations insurance applications. and mortgage-backed used to quantify the effects of up to 150% of average securities. Despite this, of other exogenous factors This project was presented growth rates. there is limited detailed on house price growth. at international academic analysis of models for Different approaches to A model estimated for conferences and at a quantifying house price risk jointly modelling the quarterly house price growth conference for industry and limited analysis based development of postcode- rates identifies practitioners in Australia. on house price data other level house prices over time macroeconomic and A final paper will be than at a market-wide level. and over the cross-section financial variables as drivers submitted for journal This partly reflects the are presented. Panel data of house price growth. publication early in 2013. limited availability of models with variable Significant effects are also detailed data. parameters and random found for seasonal dummy effects successfully variables and regional

DR KATJA HANEWALD Katja joined UNSW in January Her research interests include ‘I am always interested in a MSc Econ PhD Humboldt- 2011. Prior to this, she worked optimal risk management number of research topics Universität zu Berlin as a research assistant at decisions of households and beyond the projects I am ASSOCIATE INVESTIGATOR the Dr. Wolfgang Schieren firms facing longevity risk and currently working on. CEPAR Chair for Insurance and Risk financial risk; pricing and risk provides the perfect setting Katja Hanewald is a Senior Management and in the management of equity release for me to develop my projects Research Associate in the Collaborative Research products; and solvency capital and deepen my interest in Australian Institute for Center 649: Economic Risk requirements for banks, other economic, demographic Population Ageing Research at Humboldt-Universität insurers and pension funds. and actuarial areas.’ at the Australian School zu Berlin. of Business, University of New South Wales.

predictions we compared,we most accurate accurate most shown to provideshown to a hybrida hedonic- Of the nine modelsOf nine the the bestthe fit the and repeat sales is model He was named Australian Actuary of the Year 2007 recognitionin of his contributions actuarial to research education and internationallyboth and within Australia. of the Enterprise the of Risk InstituteManagement International (ERMII).

number of major banks and banks major of number a life insurance company. active member an been has He Australian the of actuarial profession served having Institute the of Council the on of Actuaries of Australia. He was President (2008-2009) of the Asia Pacific Risk and Insurance Association a and Executive and Board Member Prior to becoming an academic academic an becoming to Prior banking the in worked he finance industryand a for study to the pricing and pricing study the to equity of management risk release products. Another indexed- application is Hedging basedhedging. on based methods priceaggregate house indices cover only a limited part of house price risk. modelsThe developed here allow us to investigate heterogeneous of risk the portfolios at a more level.disaggregated The results of this project will produce a CEPAR be to paper working submitted journal for publication in early 2013. Idiosyncratic House Risk” House Idiosyncratic Sherris and Shao, by the applies Hanewald price house individual this in developed models .

North Geneva and Journal of Risk and and served on the Annals of Actuarial including Insurance, Insurance:Mathematics andJournal Economics, of Economic and DynamicsControl Papers on Risk andHe is on the editorialInsurance board of the Science editorial board of the American Actuarial Journal. He has published in leading published in has He international and risk actuarial studies journals, model is shown to provide to shown is model the best fit and the most accurate predictions. price house Individual indices are found to show substantially volatility more than an aggregate house price index. This finding assessment risk a implies based on an aggregate will index price house understate price house the products like financial in risk equity release products or by secured loans mortgage properties.individual The results of this project block building the provide several applications.for The related CEPAR project Equity Release“Home Products Allowing for differ and result in a large variability in index levels over long time periods. Of the nine models we compared, a saleshybrid hedonic-repeat

science and financial and science economics, and has attracted international of and number a Australian awards. these alternative models SHERRIS MICHAEL PROFESSOR BA Macq, MBA Syd, FIA, FIAA, FSA INVESTIGATOR CHIEF Professor Sherris is Michael of Actuarial Studies in the Australian Business of School at the University of New South Wales. His research sits at the intersection actuarial of house price indices at a portfolio level or at an propertyindividual level. We compare a range of alternative price house constructingmodels for stratified and aggregate based indices price house on a data set of individual transactionshouse the in Sydney residential property market from 1971 to 2011. The growth rates in house price indices estimated from show even greater variability greater even show heterogeneity to due of properties.individual This motivates our study on price house individual price house models and and employ We indices. house individual compare price models that capture heterogeneitythe of houses and individual constructionprovide of

postcode-level significant is compared to the market houses Individual index. and Sherris has and demonstrated that house price variability at a project “Postcode-Level House Price Risk Analysis for Insurance and Banking Applications” Hanewald by products on (national or (national products on city-level) aggregate house price indices. The CEPAR base the assessment of the the of assessment the base risk and returns of real estate portfolios and housing-related financial important of indicators property or values. Banks often companies insurance KATJA HANEWALD HANEWALD KATJA House price indices are RESEARCHERS SHAO WENQIANG ADAM (CEPAR PHD STUDENT) SHERRIS MICHAEL AND HOUSE PRICE INDICES INDIVIDUAL HOUSE PRICE MODELS

CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH

32 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 33 Our studyOur provides into insights new moredesigning reliable and affordable financial products that effectively help retirees to finance consumptiontheir careand costs

level, better or individual should indices, price house be used to price home equity release to products and providers’determine solvency capital. study Our into insights provides new reliable and more designing affordable financial effectivelyproducts that help retirees to finance consumption and their costs. care The results of this research have been presented at the Emerging Researchers11th in Ageing Conference and at Australianan actuarial conference. will project The working CEPAR a produce paper to be submitted for journal publication in 2013. The results of our research confirm that house price risk is not accurately reflected by an aggregate house price that portfolio- and index

individual house prices are house individual forecasted by linking prices house individual to the overall house price resultingindex. The house to used are scenarios price price the No-Negative Equity Guarantees that are typically in embedded equity release products. employed to model house model to employed price risk in home equity products. release We developed a two-step method to project future individual prices of properties. The first step involves forecasting of an index price aggregate house using a VAR model that allows for regime switching reflectto different periods growth economic of and volatility. In the second step, This project quantifies the house individual of impact of pricing the on risk price equity releasehome providers’products and solvency reserves. model price house The developed in the CEPAR House “Individual project Price Models and House Price Indices” by Shao, is Hanewald Sherris and

release products face. price index does not does index price adequately reflect the risks that providers of equity between the average housebetweenaverage the house individual and price prices. A risk assessment based on an overall house risk using aggregate house using risk there However, indices. price significant differencesare transactions data, previous previous data, transactions reversestudies on mortgage management risk and pricing typically assess house price individuals to unlock this unlock individuals to wealth. Due to limited public houseaccess individual to considered as a means to costs care aged fund and that home equity release allowproducts would The ProductivityThe Commission that recommended (2011) equityhome be should recognised as an important an as recognised the financing source of retirement needs of an population.ageing proportion of their savingsproportion their of in the form of home equity. This “nest egg” has been KATJA HANEWALD KATJA largeAustralians a hold RESEARCHERS SHAO WENQIANG ADAM (CEPAR PHD STUDENT) SHERRIS MICHAEL FOR IDIOSYNCRATICFOR HOUSE PRICE RISK HOMEEQUITY RELEASE PRODUCTS ALLOWING

the relative relative the Our research Our as well as the perspective by provides new a reduced capital natural hedging annuity business profitability of the the of profitability requirements from taking account into

7 December 2012. A working A 2012. December 7 and prepared be will paper submittedpublication for early in 2013. The researchThe results were presented to the Australian Actuarial and Education Research Symposium at UniversityMonash on

impact of natural hedging on these capital requirements. significantlyNatural hedging reduces overall capital requirements reflecting diversificationthe benefits. Finally, dynamic pricing is assessed where life insurers can adjust their premiums in the future to reflect their mortality this experience. In much situation is there reduced benefit from natural hedging. using level premiums is found to be the most effective life natural policy for insurance hedging. Profit loadings are found to influence natural portfolios.hedging Higher relative profit loadings for a policy type leads to increased weighting in the policy, reflecting the increased profit contribution. Capital life for insurersrequirements are assessed along with the management is used to to used is management show the relative effects of these factors and the betweeninteraction them. Risk minimising portfolios differentfor policy types profit factors loading and are assessed along with the sensitivity of optimal portfolios changes to policy pricing. in with insurance Term

the reduced capital reduced the from naturalrequirements Assethedging. liability provides a new perspective by taking into account the relative profitability of the annuity business as well as minimise risk immunise or portfolios changes against in mortality. Our research Existing literature in the area of natural hedging has examined ways of structuring portfolios to their exposure longevitytheir to liability through risk portfolio composition. hedging. Natural hedging hedging. is considered a way that manageinsurers can annuities with the mortality risk for their life insurance offset This policies. is referred to as natural transferring longevity risk to reinsurers who rely on offsetting longevity on risk makes it costly for life offerinsurers to annuity products. Annuity providers as well as pension funds are systematic improvement uncertaintyand survival in individualsprobabilities for RALPH STEVENS STEVENS RALPH Longevity from arising risk RESEARCHERS SHERRIS MICHAEL WONGANDY STUDENT) HONOURS (CEPAR LONGEVITY RISK LIFE FOR INSURERS THE FINANCIAL NATURAL OF IMPACT OFHEDGING

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34 OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION AND PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH SYSTEMATIC MORTALITY

35 CEPAR RESEARCHERS portfolios in a single period This project extends the and a multi-period setting research in the CEPAR project

KATJA HANEWALD ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • with finite horizon and finite “Individual Post-Retirement MICHAEL SHERRIS states modelled with a Longevity Risk Management Markov-chain. The impact under Systematic Mortality This project develops a of an incomplete market Risk.” In 2012, we have theoretical framework for for longevity risk will be developed the basic individual portfolio multi- assessed. Results will be framework for this project period decision making illustrated under different and obtained first numerical taking into account utility assumptions and results. The research will RESEARCH systematic mortality risk the impact of systematic continue in 2013 and is and the range of products mortality risk on risk expected to produce a individuals have available premiums, demand for number of papers for to manage longevity risk. annuities and on optimal submission to leading A discrete state and discrete retirement product decisions international discipline time framework is developed is formally assessed. journals and presentation that allows both optimal to local and international The model framework allows portfolio selection and conferences. theoretical risk pricing to be recent advances in carried out. At the same time computational techniques the model is set in a for discrete decision framework that allows for problems to be applied to effective computation of longevity risk management. strategies and for it to be Theoretical pricing models A discrete state made more realistic by for longevity products as well and discrete time allowing for incomplete as optimal risk management framework is markets and other features strategies allowing for developed that systematic risk and the of longevity product allows both markets found in practice. theoretical impact of market imperfections will be optimal portfolio This project develops a implemented in the selection and complete markets discrete framework, providing a basis theoretical risk state and discrete time for addressing a range of model allowing for stochastic pricing to be current research issues carried out and systematic mortality around optimal consumption and risky assets. The role and product selection with of life annuities, Group systematic risk not Self-annuitisation Schemes previously considered. (GSA’s) and longevity bonds in an individual portfolio is assessed. The risk neutral computation approach is used to determine optimal This model the effects of cause-specific us to investigate to us probabilistic way framework allows the elimination of, of, elimination the improvements or in, mortality sound a in

He has expertise has actuarialHe in loss and management risk modelling, development and assessment models for of longevity application and risk product developments,to and management risk regulatory requirements. KPMG (Toronto) and and KPMG (Toronto) Perrin Tillinghast-Towers (New York City). cause-of-death, we quantify the effect that the development of a cure would have on aggregate mortality. We do this using residual life expectancy allowing us to estimate the increase of residual years in of number life expectancy for a given cure that a gender and age for cancer results in. This is a major strength of the causal models developed in the project. This project will continue in 2013 and suitable paper a produce will leading a to submission for earlyinternational journal in 2013. events such as the the as such events development of a cure for cancer. By building a causal mortality model that includes cancer as a

Mathematics at ETH Zurich. Prior to this he obtained a Bachelor Mathematics, of with in honours double Actuarial and Science Statistics, University from the of Waterloo. He has also insurance for worked Life Sun (Waterloo)companies Manulife as (Waterloo) and consulting companies as well Daniel joined UNSW in June June in UNSW joined Daniel following graduation his 2010 Departmentfrom the of framework, which naturally which framework, accounts inherent the for amongstdependence the competing causes. framework model This allows us to investigate improvements effects of the in, or the elimination of, cause-specific mortality in a sound probabilistic way. subsequent the compare We impact on survival with previous causal models and identify that the conservative is approach quantification of in mortality-risk. The impact of cause- aggregate on elimination mortality quantified using is liferesidual expectancy and Australian an case to applied study. That is, we consider and data obtained from the Organization. Health World causal mortality model We a simultaneously in logistic multinomial

New South Wales. internationally classified internationally cause-of-death categories ALAI DANIEL DR BMath Waterloo, PhD ETH Zurich INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Daniel Alai is a Senior Research Associate in the Australian Institute for ResearchPopulation Ageing at the Australian School of Business, University of The study of causal mortality introduce does challenges; one principal the thatbeing causes-of-death dependent. inherently are to due is dependence This the competing nature of the various causes of death. This project provides a frameworkprobabilistic to difficultyovercome this and insightgain into population mortality trends as well as produce forecasts. We use example, the potential the example, impact of a cure for a quantified. disease be can This is of interest since statisticalpurely mortality forecasting methods are incorporate such to able not events in a consistent way. Causal models a provide mixture of statistical as well scenario-intuitive as and forecasts. based

causal model the impact of cause-elimination can be investigated so that, for population data with cause-of-death data and perspectivesprovides new on mortality risks. In a miss importantmiss details. The study of causal mortality combines individual level mortality level individual require data thatis often aggregate and limited population mortality studies business as well as private systems. pension public and Mortality studies at an underlyingChanges in mortality rates significantly lifeimpact annuity insurer External collaborator SEVERINE GAILLE (UNIVERSITY LAUSANNE) OF RESEARCHERS ALAI DANIEL SHERRIS MICHAEL THE IMPACT OF CAUSE-ELIMINATION MODELLING CAUSAL MORTALITY AND

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City, October, 1–4 2012 Michael Alai and Daniel Sherris ‘Longitudinal (2012), Analysis Mortality of Risk North AmericanFactors’, Actuarial Research UniversityConference, Canada, Manitoba, of 2012. August 3 Séverine Gaille and Michael Michael and Gaille Séverine Sherris (2012), ‘Causes-of- Death Mortality: What Can Be Learned from Cointegration’, IALLS Colloquium, Mexico

Séverine Gaille and Michael Michael and Gaille Séverine Sherris (2012), ‘Forecasting Mortality Allowing for Trends Cause-of-Death Mortality Eighth Dependence’, International Longevity Capital Markets and Risk Solutions Conference, Canada,Waterloo, 2012 September, 7–8 approaches is not well not approaches is actuarial and the known in literatureinsurance and allows extension the of survival data models to take into account the benefits of the panel data marginal external, including by model systematic, explanatory analysis. the variables in have projects These papers working produced that were presented at major international conferences: US HRS data was used to investigate the main factors age older determining mortality using a survival panel a and data approach data approach. Proportional marginal and hazards estimated.models were estimated resulting The ratios odds hazard and comparable. This are model equivalence of

across countries. countries. across cause-of-death mortality impacts the this and trends long-run trends expected for aggregate morality rates causes of death. Countries Countries death. of causes have quite different past experience with respect to understanding of theunderstanding of betweendependence the faced risks competing by humans from differing for mortality rates from causes.other models The improved an provide relationships exist between the five main causes of onedeath with changes in cause implications having econometric techniques. analysisThe reveals how long-run equilibrium of mortality. The five main causes of death across ten major countries were modern analysed using mortality cause of death and investigation of risk factors longitudinal modelsusing Research continued in 2012 mortality, models for on analysis of the including External collaborator SEVERINE GAILLE (UNIVERSITY LAUSANNE) OF RESEARCHERS ALAI DANIEL SHERRIS MICHAEL AND LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS LONGITUDINAL AND MORTALITY MODELS: CAUSES OF DEATH

While many and mortalityand succeeded insucceeded health status mortality, the nature. This is retirement and guidance on its on guidance has thus far not primarily because existing literature providing definitive papers address the influences both the timing of retirement relationship between

and in volumes in and retirement, in the Scandinavian JournalEconomics, of OxfordEconomic Bulletin Research, of of Pension Journal Economics Finance and NBER, the published by Elgar Edward Kluwer, Routledge.and Erik has published on has Erik productivity, education, unemployment and unique administrative data set covering the entire population Norway of from 1992 to 2008. The data reliable highly include information earnings, on market labour and pension status as well as information,demographic such as birth and mortality education, dates, gender, marital status.and Our current results indicate no significant impact of mortality. on retirement age Further being is analysis testundertaken to robustness before expectresubmission. We in appear to paper final the international journal. good a trends. Thesetrends. be can thought of as a treatment group and a control group. such combines paper This a research design with a

, compared with After working at Statistics Norway, he became the Director the of inaugural Frisch Centre in 1999. He was one of the first researchers to administrativeorganise register data and use these econometricfor analysis. This is now a major research focus of the Frisch Centre. evaluating labourthe market effects of Norwegian reform.pension enlisted as instruments.enlisted as involuntary since However, retirement may also occur in itearly retirement programs, important separate theis to effectpotential early an of such as retirement program – which should be related to literature voluminous the on the effects of job-loss – from the potential effect of a change in the retirement age. In order to isolate the effect of the retirement age on mortality we require the in variation exogenous retirement age (entitled) conditional on participationin an early retirement program such no facing group a change, to capture time of health status and policy retirement. Typically, differential as such changes cohort,retirement by ages region or industry, have been

Erik’s primaryErik’s research interests related to are is he and economics pension currently leading a project on seriously endogeneity the HERNAES ERIK Oslo oecon. Cand. INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Erik Hernaes is a Senior Research Ragnar Fellow the at CentreFrisch Economic for Research at the University of Oslo, Norway’s leading researcheconomics centre. influences timing the both mortality. retirement and of While early retirement may influence longevity, poor health may both induce a worker to retire and lead to an for Controlling death. earlier the ensuing selection bias is difficult, recently, until and attempts to do so have unconvincing.been number a however, Recently, of studies have adopted takeapproaches which Increasing lifeIncreasing expectancy, is ages, especially older at imparting a new urgency to this question. While many papers address the relationship between mortality,retirement and the existing literature has thus far not succeeded in providing definitive guidance on its nature. This is primarily because health status

retirement may extendretirement may expected lifespan. of social networks,social and of health-adverse habits, suggesting that later retirement enhances may it longevity. However, mental reduced also to lead activity, physical and loss involve reduced stress reduced involve and greater enjoyment of life, suggesting that early Is there a causal link from mortality? to retirement age Leaving employment may ECONOMIC RESEARCH)ECONOMIC VESTAD OLA (STATISTICS NORWAY) SIMEN MARKUSSENSIMEN CENTRE FOR FRISCH (RAGNAR External Collaborators RESEARCHERS HERNAES ERIK PIGGOTTJOHN IMPACT MORTALITY? DOES RETIREMENTDOES AGE

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38 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 39 longevity risk We find that the leadpolicies to substantial uncertainty retirementin and age of yearsnumber spent retirement,in but do effectively hedge

and employees, longevityand substantially. reduced is risk For policies which adjust retirement age the to substantially, due riskintergenerational betweensharing retirees

age to changes in life expectancy. in life expectancy is that for the short and medium substantial a is there term probability that future cohorts will be faced with realised lower expected remaining lifetime at the retirement than current cohort. We find that longevity risk at a be can societal level substantiallyreduced by policies implementing that adjust the retirement fund as whole. a We find that the policies lead to substantial uncertainty in number and retirement age retirement, in years spent of effectivelybut do hedge longevity the risk. Moreover, project also evaluates the effect of the method to futuremodel improvements in life expectancy. disadvantage the A of policies which adjust the changes to retirement age In this project we investigate the effect of policy reforms to make the dependent retirement age on the evolution of survival probabilities. We investigate the effect on the distribution of the full on and retirement age, longevity the in risk payments future discounted a individuals both and of

increase over time and the contributionspension should stay, more or less, constant over time. in retirement age should not be too large, the remaining shouldlifetime retirement at full retirement age itselffull retirement age variable. random a be will In order for the policies to be sustainable the uncertainty age will be dependent on the on dependent be will age survival the of evolution probabilities and the future on the actual retirement age, actual retirement age, the on expected remaining lifetime pension retirement and at liabilities. full The retirement policies to increase the mandatory retirement age and investigate their effects pressure the on sustainability pension of world.systems the around In this project we propose The increase in life expectancy retirement at increased placing is 47.3 years47.3 in 1900 to 68.2 years in 1950; 72.6 years in 1975; 76.8 years in 2000; yearsand 77.7 in 2006. For example, the (population) the example, For life expectancy at birth in the USA has increased from Life expectancy been has steadily increasing in most of the western world over the past century. RESEARCHER STEVENS RALPH AGE POLICIES AGE AN IN SOCIETY AGEING SUSTAINABLE FULL RETIREMENT RETIREMENT FULL SUSTAINABLE

in the Centre. ‘The ECR grant will provide me with a great opportunity to research my on focus really over the next two years.’ Chung’s research funded is Chung’s by an ARC award to support Early Career Researchers and labourand groups, skills market statusmarket across income

vary significantly ...we find...we that the life-cycle patterns patterns life-cycle of health in Australia European Journal of Economic and understandingand the dynamics financing debt of fiscal austerity.and work His academic leading appears in journals, including Economic Review,of Journal Development Economicsand Dynamics and Control. health insurance systems; analysing growth welfare and fiscalimplications of policy;

South Wales. primary researchChung’s interests lie in the areas of macroeconomics public and his of Much economics. current explores role work the aspects macroeconomic and Specific policy. public of research include: topics effects dynamic evaluating security social of systems and postdoctoral fellow the at University Sydney of and the University of New and income is much smaller much is income and Australia. in We also constructed the age profiles of health and advanced an using income partialsemi-nonparametric estimationlinear method. We assessed the quantitative importance of the time and cohort effects on the evolution of life-cycle. the over health Completion of this part of the study is awaiting a new wave of data release early in 2013. We expect to submit the an to resulting paper international health economics journal. However, the life-cycle the However, pattern inequality health of does not decline at old ages in the US. Fourth, we find the correlation between health

National UniversityNational a and CEPAR Research Fellow. at appointment his to Prior ANU, he worked as a follows a similar life-cycle life-cycle similar a follows trend in both countries. DR CHUNG TRAN Economics National Hanoi BA University, MA Hague Inst of National Hanoi Studies & Social University Indiana University, PhD INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE AND RESEARCH FELLOW Chung Tran is a Lecturer in the Research School of Australian the at Economics survey data. Our results are follows.summarised as First, we find that average health status depreciates, but health inequality as shape hump displays a Australians Second, age. we find that the life-cycle in health of patterns Australia vary significantly across income groups, skills status. market labour and Third, we find that the status health average insurance and the and insurance utilisation of health care. It is also important to the formation of public policy healthconcerning pensions, and health and financing, care. social documents the paper This joint distribution of health and income over the life-cycle Australia in and household using US, the

understanding individual behaviour with respect to retirement, saving, health Knowledge dynamics the of income between and health over the course of the life-cycle important is to directly affect health since it determines the ability to pay for health care services. to work, which in turn and determines income the On levels. consumption other hand, income may determinant economic of status, directly influencing available ability time the and Health is a key component key a is Health wellbeing individual’s an of for a number of reasons. importantFirst, an is it JUERGEN JUNG JUNG JUERGEN (TOWSON UNIVERSITY) RESEARCHER TRANCHUNG External collaborator HEALTH AND INCOME LIFE-CYCLE PATTERNS OF

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summarising existing CEPAR externaland research and assisting secretariat the technical producing in content conferences for media. the and His current work at CEPAR is policy producing centred on related briefing papers,

While commendable counts, many on we find that the IGRs suffer from some myopia assumption and a lack of clarity about certain assumptions and methodology

in Paris. He specialises in He Paris. in public design, policy social analysis, private pension and static micro-simulation tax-benefitmodelling the of system, poverty and and measurement.income pensions economist at the economist at pensions Economic Organisation for DevelopmentCooperation and those relating superannuation to decumulation, tax, age of choice. retirement, and At times, however, the reforms piecemeal were lacking clear rationale.and Important issues remain unresolved, especially

initially as a project manager project a initially as regeneration economic in subsequentlyand an as on economist focusing policy. social He has experience of business and economic consulting in the private sector, working as an advisor the for economic a as British Government and Rafal has worked in public policy administration and decade, a over analysis for about futureabout for trends, mature in changes example, labour force participation. Also, the IGR methodology is demonstrateseldom to used specific policy impacts. With regard to retirement successive find we policy, have governments numerous implemented past the over reforms addressing thedecade, various objectives of a retirementwell-designed income system to different design degrees. basic The has remained intact, enviable allowing an adequacy of combination sustainability.and accumulation and decumulation). approach couldThe be improved by making more realistic assumptions

Wales. He joined CEPAR in April 2012. and methodologyand superannuation (e.g., RAFAL CHOMIK BEcFin UWA, MEc London Metropolitan RESEARCH FELLOW SENIOR Senior a is Chomik Rafal Research Fellow at CEPAR, located in the Australian School of Business at the University of New South landscape affecting the Australian retirement income system over the last decade and into the future. It also examines the methodology the of themselves. IGRs on commendable While many counts, we find that the IGRs suffer from some (e.g., assumption myopia migration, participation) clarity lack of a and about assumptions certain Age-related are pensions expected to make up a significant proportion of these costs. additional IntergenerationalThe Report celebrated its anniversarytenth 2012. in this takes paper This milestone as a point of departure to study fiscal,developments the in policy and demographic,

Government spending up up Government spending from 22.4 per cent of GDP in per to2015–16 27.1 cent of GDP by 2049–50. As suggested in IGR 2010, if left ageing unchecked, pressures push would an analysis of long-term long-term of analysis an public finances is to provide insight into the impacts shift. demographic of followed reports by in 2007 and 2010. A primary publishing motivation behind long-term sustainability of the in Government policies following 40 years. The first IGR was published in 2002, with the preparation of a five-yearly intergenerational report (IGR) to assess the The CharterThe Budget of Honesty Act (1998) tasked Australianthe Government RESEARCHERS RAFAL CHOMIK PIGGOTTJOHN AUSTRALIAN RETIREMENT INCOME SYSTEM INCOME RETIREMENT AUSTRALIAN LONG-TERM FISCAL PROJECTIONS AND THE THE AND PROJECTIONS FISCAL LONG-TERM

in 2000. Beforein the joining held faculty, he Penn University Yale positions at University. Duke and Professor Fang received his PhD in Economics from the University Pennsylvania of broad heads. First, it will examine the implications of the for population ageing tax requirement. revenue Second, it will ask whether, and in what ways, an ageing population impacts the robustness revenue and base of the tax mix. Third, it will examine what lessons can bedrawn from the recent literature capital on taxation and aged based taxes for dynamic tax economy with an in design demographic. changing a TAXATION: the examine will paper This analytic policy literature and change demographic linking three taxation and under

, as well as on the International Economic insurance and healthinsurance and insurance markets, and issues related to and discrimination action. affirmative He serves as a co-editor of the Review several of boards editorial theother journals, including American Economic Review. He is currently working on issues related to insurance markets, particularly life (Piggott and Woodland); Woodland); and (Piggott (Keane); making decision insurance markets (Fang); workplace pensions Piggott); and (Mitchell longevityand and morbidity (Sherris): Five of the papers in the written being are volume CEPAR-affiliatedby researchers. These include chapters on taxation

interestspublic on focusing research His economics. from covers ranging topics social discrimination, welfare reform,economics, psychology economics, and provision good public to and auctions mechanisms, health insurance markets. Professor Fang is an applied Professor an is Fang microeconomist with broad empirical theoretical and insurance markets,insurance and migration, pensions, longevity. Other papers in this section will review the politicalliterature the on populationeconomy of equity and aspects,ageing, intergenerationalincluding equity. A final section analyses policy issues, taxation,including poverty, health. security, and social This will be a volume of contributions that will simultaneously an provide authoritative reference scholars otherfor and professionals interested in and change demographic helpits implications, and shape the future research field. the in agenda covered. We then turn to this markets. Chapters in part of the volume will treat impactsmacroeconomic change, demographic of

Research (NBER). in decision making, are all making, are decision in PROFESSOR HANMING FANG BA Fudan, MA Virginia, PennsylvaniaPhD INVESTIGATOR PARTNER Professor is Fang of Hanming Economics at the University of ResearchPennsylvania a and Associate National the at Economic of Bureau chapters, discuss gaps, overlaps. out iron and deliveryFinal is scheduled for 2014. with begin will Handbook The a paper by David Bloom “Demographics on (Harvard) Time”. through Globally and papers focusing series of A households follow. will on Labour force participation, family, the and ageing saving,consumption and portfolio issues and choice, Over the past 12 months months 12 past the Over assembled have an we outstanding of team contributors, from drawn UK, continental the US, the Australia. and Europe, Authors’ chapter outlines accumulated. being now are In the second half of 2013, contributors’a conference Harvard scheduled at is University to present draft

, to be published professionals policy and analysts throughout world.the with a focus on emerging policy. research of areas and We intend to make it economists,relevant to The Handbook aims to cover to aims Handbook The the mainstream topics in ageing, economics of the We see this as an opportunity to provide a platform to future research.inform prestigious in the Economics the prestigious in past the these in discipline: helped have handbooks define new fields of research. Ageing Elsevier The Elsevier. by most the series is handbook In 2011, we secured a contract to produce a Handbook in Population EDITORS PIGGOTTJOHN WOODLAND ALAN HANDBOOK POPULATION IN AGEING

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trends. This has major major has This trends. and financial implications for which markets, insurance are the natural mediators of these can risks. Ignorance inappropriate leadto solvency for requirements products, to such leading prices which many find unaffordable. At the same time, longevity risk exposure on new products may be by under-appreciated regulatory authorities. Longevity will risk important more become populationsas age. reviews this chapter This relatively research, new and points to the most directions forurgent research. new LONGEVITY AND MORBIDITY: Relatively little attention has been paid to uncertainty around future projections in longevity morbidity and

moderating their public their moderating offset promises. To pension the impact of these changes, policymakers sought have strengthento pre-funded private workplace or plans.occupational pension explores chapter This recent developments pension in structureplan function. and It will review research on what workplace pensions today’s look like and how they function, identifying challenges opportunities and as well as the impacts of policy interventions. Our goal is to evaluate the future workplace for potential pensions in light of forecastedcurrent and population ageing. WORKPLACE PENSIONS: The fiscal stress that brings ageing demographic pensions pay-as-you-go to has led to governments

remaining human capital to draw upon in the event of unexpectedly poor outcomes. As well, the interplay between age- strategiesphasing and aggregate risk taking may markets. financial on impact contributionThis will examine the issue of risks in ages. older at retirement and INSURANCE MARKETS: INSURANCE provide risks Retirement challenges insurance to Marketmarkets globally. failures are ubiquitous: In many cases markets don’t exist at all, or are “residual” in nature. Yet exposure to retirement risks – longevity, investment,morbidity, a occurs employment at – time when there is little

The material outcome will be a volume of contributions that will ...help shape the future research field the in agenda retirement plans. insurance. Younger cohortsinsurance. Younger alsomay experience difficulties future choosing competency and abilitycompetency and to choices rational make concerning retirement health and care plans, aged decision making and social and making decision interactions. Examples driving changing include population. The ageing of population. ageing The individuals potentially in changes involves competency that may affect process decision and making for life choices cohorts older among the of focusing on the relationship the on focusing markets,between choice, functional capacity.and concernsIt ageing the DECISION MAKING: embraces an chapter This research of area emerging

collaboration with National Seniors Australia, the US University. La Trobe and AARP, ARC-funded Ageing Baby Ageing ARC-funded AustraliaBoomers in research conducted in project being epidemiological evidence epidemiological of changes in the pattern issues health-related of challenges the and opportunitiesand these present. HEALTH AND AGEING: provides an overview of the health profile of older people Australia in including discussion of and analysis

social pathways and the pathways social and effect of these on health, as disability and ageing as well These loss). projects(hearing are based on data from the Melbourne Longitudinal Surveys of Healthy Ageing (MELSHA) and theABS Disability Carers Survey and respectively. She is also a Chief Investigator on the She is currently involved in projects data analysing related to life transitions and trends and considers and trends challengesthe and opportunities these present in Australia. particularA will focus patterns spatial the be geographic and Australia’s diversity of population.ageing POPULATION AND AGEING DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: considers population context the in ageing global and national of

behaviours exposures and across life the course the and effect of these on health outcomes in later life; the financial psycho-social and aspects of the transition to, retirement; for planning and community and individual and attitudes to ageing, with a age specific focus on workplace. the discrimination in Her primaryHer research interest is in ageing, and is currently focused in three key areas: the book are being written being are book the CEPAR-affiliatedby researchers. These include populationchapters on demographic and ageing and (McDonald change ageing and health Booth); (Browning and Byles); attitudes ageing to and Kendig (O’Loughlin, Australia’s Browning); policyretirement income and Chomik (Bateman, primary and Piggott); ageing health care (Browning); support and care and policies (Kendig): audiences, particularlyaudiences, multidisciplinaryin gerontology and policy. social Six of the key chapters in

University of Sydney. of University of Australianof developments international for ageing in DR KATE O’LOUGHLIN BA Macq., PhD Syd. INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Dr Kate O’Loughlin is a Senior Lecturer Sociology Health in in the Faculty of Health of member a is and Sciences the Ageing, Work and Health Research Unit at the a strong evidence basea for students health sciences in related (e.g. disciplines and work,social policy) health undertake they as education training and to take up practitioner roles in community and clinical health settings or policy- and health roles in making aged care services. It will also inform action by service policymakers,providers and overview an provide and them. We believe that Australia is ready for a new statement basic ageing on and policies inform both to constructive by action institutionsindividuals and positively more respond to to ageing. This edited textbook-style publication – written by Australia’s researchersleading and policy analysts – will provide

Ageing in

The book The needs of the increasing the of needs and people older of numbers those who will interact with opportunities associated with population ageing innovative and new require perspectives to meet the and the transitions transitions the and that occur in later life. challengesThe and overview of the social and overview social the of individual dimensions of wellbeing and health ageing, Opportunities. will focus on Australian research and case studies multidisciplinary a provide to Springer to produce an produce to Springer edited book titled Australia: Challenges and COLETTE BROWNING In 2011 we were commissioned by EDITORS KATE O’LOUGHLIN KENDIG HAL AGEING IN AUSTRALIA: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES AUSTRALIA: IN AGEING

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family, accommodation, family, formsother assistance); of provides a brief overview (inter)-governmental the of interest group and policydevelopment the of industry and (and area perspectives);consumer examines the pressures and forces that led to the latest Productivity Commission recommendations and reforms whether they and acceptable not;are or provides an overview of directions,new including regionalisation, enabling and independence consumer directed care. PARADIGMS AND POLICIES IN CARE AND SUPPORT FOR OLDER PEOPLE: considers what we mean by aged care (self help,

in hospital and community hospital and in settings critically and reviews the focus on primary care health initiatives in terms of access, affordability efficacy.and AGEING AND PRIMARY PRIMARY AND AGEING CARE: HEALTH provides an overview of services health the available people utilised older by and

dimensions ofdimensions healthageing, and wellbeing the and that transitions occur in later life The book willThe focus book Australianon research case and studies to provide a multidisciplinary overview of social the individualand AUSTRALIA’S RETIREMENT RETIREMENT AUSTRALIA’S POLICY:INCOME provides an overview of retirement Australia’s system including income – superannuation, pensions, examines taxation and and - available evidencethe on provide can this how sustainableequitable and standards of living for older people.

based stereotypes. challenges and opportunities addressing in attitudes age- and Legislative policy and people’s older initiatives and drawnexperiences be will the considering in on institutions, health health institutions, policy systemcare and discourses strategies. and and examines available examines and these how evidence on are manifested in the workplace, public ATTITUDES AGEING: TO addresses age-based attitudes stereotypes and This set of LONGEVITY RISK FOR MANAGEMENT INSURERS. projects focuses on assessing and devising strategies for firms to longevity their manage risk exposure. • •

personnel in conjunctionpersonnel in carryingwith CenSoc is experimentsout to understand kinds the errors make of people choices, financial in and why. Findings will point the way to the best kinds of information, best the and presentation of that information, improve to making. decision FINANCIAL CHOICES AND PLANNING IN A CONTEXT. RETIREMENT One of the large studies undertaken CEPAR by • •

the labour force quite rather than suddenly, retirement, to transition which seems at first sensible. more sight Progress was also made labourthat combined capital human supply, investment, saving and retirementthe decision optimising single a into framework. latter This continue will project 2013. through THE RETIREMENT DECISION. advances Among the in 2012 was a new insight that explained why most withdraw frompeople • •

breakthrough combined human and health capital investment in a model, optimising single allowingthus their interdependence analysed. be to CHOICES AND DECISIONS AND CAPITAL HUMAN ON INVESTMENT. HEALTH These are decisions sequentiallymade throughout life the Planned course. be will behaviour modified in light of new information policy, about events. health about and especiallyAn important • • DECISION MAKING BY INDIVIDUALS, INDIVIDUALS, BY MAKING DECISION HOUSEHOLDS AND FIRMS

ARE ADVANCES IN IN ADVANCES ARE UNDERSTANDING THE IN FOLLOWING AREAS: CONTEXT. RISK MANAGEMENT RISK CONTEXT. STRATEGIES BY INSURANCE ANALYSED. ALSO WERE FIRMS AMONG HIGHLIGHTS THE THE RETIREMENTTHE DECISION, CHOICES FINANCIAL AND IN A RETIREMENT SAVING FORMULATION. RESEARCH FORMULATION. IN 2012 CENTRED ON AND CAPITAL HUMAN INVESTMENT, HEALTH REQUIRED TO GENERATE GENERATE TO REQUIRED INTERPRETAND EVIDENCE MEANINGFULFOR POLICY UNDERSTANDING CHOICESUNDERSTANDING AND DECISIONS INA LIFE- CONTEXTCYCLE IS CHALLENGING, BUT IS STRAND 2 STRAND

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46 STRAND 2 DECISION MAKING BY INDIVIDUALS, HOUSEHOLDS AND FIRMS

The ageing of individuals potentially involves changes in competency that may affect decision making and social interactions. Examples include changing driving competency and ability to make rational choices concerning retirement plans, aged care and health insurance. Younger cohorts may also experience difficulties choosing future retirement plans. Our research assembles economic, social and psychology expertise to address the challenges posed by age transitions in cognitive and functional competencies and health and financial literacies.

TO VIEW PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS RELATING TO THIS RESEARCH VISIT CEPAR.EDU.AU RESEARCH PROJECTS

Predictors of Driving Outcomes and Driving Cessation in Older Drivers: A Five Year Validation Study 47

Life-cycle Modelling of Human Capital Investment, Saving, Labour Supply and Retirement 48

Life-cycle Effects of Health Risk 49

Investment in Health Over the Life-cycle 50

Health and Occupational Mobility 52

Health Insurance Choices of Seniors 53

Savings and their Determinants in Old Age 54

Bequest Motives in a Life-cycle Model with Children’s Interaction 55

Intra-Household Intergenerational Resource Allocation in China: Labour Supply, Education and Human Capital Transmission 56

Life Choices and Policy: Policy Analysis with Non-standard Preferences 58

Retiring Cold Turkey 59

Complex Financial Decisions for Retirement Savings 60

Risk Information and Retirement Investment Choices under Prospect Theory 62

The Impact of Family Structure on Risk Attitudes and Financial Planning 63

Extending the Endogenous Grid Method for Solving Discrete-continuous Sequential Decision Problems 64

Comparing Life Insurer Longevity Risk Management Strategies in a Firm Value Maximising Framework 65

Risk Management and Payout Design of Reverse Mortgages 66

Longevity Financing and Risk Models 67 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 47

Ageing, and Cognition. Gerontology, Ageing rated driving ability ability driving rated crashand risk collected in 2006 unrelated reported to crash rates in 2012 …participants demonstrated poor insight into their own self- with driving, International, Neuropsychology,and Congress. She is a member member a Congress. is She boards editorial the of for

driver safety impact the and cessation. driving of Kaarin is currently the Chair of the Medical and Scientific Panel of the Research Australia Alzheimer’s member a and Foundation, Research Transport the of Board of the United States which Academies National provides advice to the US ageing. She has developed a has She ageing. model of driving safety and conducts research older on of themeasures, to they long how determine remain predictive of driving outcomes. This could be annual an through achieved also should and follow up sampling other include access to techniques different subpopulations, such as those drivers who have been referred for testing due to health issues concerns driving.or over The findings demonstrate findings The a need for future research to include a closer examination of the time sensitivity the of course

Pennsylvania State University Gerontology Centre. substantiveHer research interests the include cognition of epidemiology late-life dementia, and wellbeing.depression, and also on working is Kaarin interventions the reduce to risk of cognitive decline and promote healthy and dementia She is also an NHMRC Senior Research Fellow and an Adjunct Professor the at poor insight into their own driving, with self-rated driving ability and crash risk collected in 2006 unrelated to reported crash rates in 2012. The main measures of capacity to drive safely crash to sensitive were that five year the over likelihood the were period follow-up Useful Field of View (UFOV), crash also self-reported and rate in 2006. The Hazard other and Perception Test cognitive measures were not significantly predictive of crashes atfollow-up. and vision Similarly health, measures health mental were not predictive of follow-up. at crashes Results indicated that age reportedand trafficcrashes both influenced readiness to cease driving. Of note is that demonstrated participants

Prevention, both of which are based at the Australian University.National PROFESSOR KAARIN ANSTEY BA(Hons) Syd., PhD Qld., FASSA INVESTIGATOR CHIEF Kaarin Anstey is Director of the Centre for Research on Ageing, Health Wellbeing and Dementia the of Director and Collaborative Research Centre, Early and Diagnosis up individuals whoup participated in our 2006 study with regard to their driving history their since participation. Validation of screening measures for older drivers evidence provides the how decide to which base on to assess the safety of ACT present there drivers.older At is very little evidence relating predictive long-term the to value of screening tests for drivers.older to be taken into account. There is a clear need for easily and valid reliable, a administered screening tool that can be used to assess adults’ older capacity to drive. In the present study conducted in 2011–2012, we predictive the investigated validity of the ACT Hazard Perception Test by following

adequately assessadequately capacity to drive, and that other relevant cognitive and sensorimotor factors need drivers’ capacity to drive safely, indicating that vision nottesting does alone adults’ capacityadults’ continue to driving. But research has of range wide a shown olderfactors on impact drive. Current practice only mandates regular visual testing to ascertain older sensorimotor functioning mean that this sector also factorsexperiences unique that affect theircapacity to population. However age-related changes in and visual cognitive, Adults over the age of 65 growingyears represent a sector of the driving RESEARCHERS ANSTEY KAARIN SARGENT-COX KERRY DRIVING CESSATION OLDER IN DRIVERS: STUDY VALIDATION YEAR FIVE A PREDICTORS OF DRIVING OUTCOMES AND

Economics Journal of Econometrics Quantitative Marketing and and International Monetary times various at Fund career. throughout his He was elected to the Council Econometric Society the of in 2009 and is also a member American Economic the of AmericanAssociation the and Statistical Association. He is an Associate Editor of the

We investigate how institutional settings behaviour under differentbehaviour under the model affects model the optimal inclusion of human capital ofinclusion human in since 1992 and as a member of the Peer Review Panel of the Institutes HealthNational of (NIH) in 1995–6, 1999 and 2001–5. In November 2009 he report taxprepared a on transfers supply labour and Treasury’s Australian the for Australia’s on Commission Future Tax System. He has visiting scholar the at a been for Research on Poverty’s Researchfor on Problems on Group Working Population Income Low the of This project is expected several produce to publications leading in refereed international Economics.journals in

internationally terms of in citations and the impact of to considered is work. He his be a world leader in choice expertise his modelling and nationally both sought and is had has He internationally. a long association with two Department US the of agencies of Health and Human Services: as a member of the Institute Several independent sourcesSeveral independent Keane placed have Michael economists 50 top the among us to shed light on the mechanics of low estimates of labour supply elasticity that are usually obtained in micro-econometric models. In 2012, the main structure of the model was built innovative solution an and developedmethod was to cope with the high computational complexity of the model. In 2013, the and Household, Income AustraliaLabour Dynamics in (HILDA) Survey will be used to estimate the labour supply elasticity for Australia and studying for basis form the the induced effects of the Australian system pension human and supply labour on capital accumulation. working ages and the and working ages retirement decision extensive and (intensive margins) into the model capital allowswith human

Professor of Economics at Universitythe Oxford. of labour supply during supply labour KEANE MICHAEL PROFESSOR BS MIT, MA PhD Brown, FES, FASSA INVESTIGATOR CHIEF Australian an is Keane Michael Laureate Professor Fellow and of Economics in the Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales. currently is VisitingHe optimal behaviour under under behaviour optimal different institutional settings. Considering decisions four all simultaneously allows us conclusions aboutdraw to differenthow choices particularinterconnect, in how investments in human capital throughout the affected are life-cycle by various aspectsof system and pension the taxation. both Including saving process as given.exogenously In this project we build a comprehensive life-cycle that comprisesmodel decisions,labour supply consumption-saving human and choices capital accumulation. We investigate how inclusion of human capital in the model affects

retirement abstract from and consumption choice consumption- the take complexity dynamic of life-cycle models. Many of the existing papers on concentrates solely on and choices supply labour due retirement of timing computationalthe to processes previous the in literature. Yet the majority of work in this field and the decision to retire. to decision the and capital accumulationHuman has been shown to be an important part these of choices throughoutchoices the life-cycle interact with decisionslabour supply FEDOR ISKHAKOV FEDOR studies project howThis savingconsumption and RESEARCHERS KEANE MICHAEL WOODLAND ALAN HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT, SAVING, SAVING, INVESTMENT, CAPITAL HUMAN RETIREMENT AND SUPPLY LABOUR LIFE-CYCLE MODELLING OF

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shocks, and have and shocks, lower abilities to self- future against insure health to due shocks lower incomes Non-college educated individuals face higher probabilities of bad health age, at any experience larger productivity drops adverse to due health determined. In reality, In determined. individuals can invest in seek and health their preventive medical care to probabilities their improve of good health as they age. importantThis consideration is studied in the project “Investment in Health over the Life-Cycle” by Michael Maruyama Shiko Keane, Capatina Elena (see and page 50). This project has studied health risk in a framework transitions health where probabilities the over life-cycle exogenously are

adverse shocks, health to abilities lower have and future against self-insure lower to due shocks health incomes. Health risk accounts for 9% of disposable income inequality non- the for college educated, leading to larger fractions of precautionary savings for this group despite the a of presence consumption floor. researchbeen This has written up as a CEPAR is and Paper, Working revisioncurrently under peer-reviewed a in economics journal. Non-college educated individuals higher face probabilities of bad health at experience larger age, any productivity to due drops

channels, they need to be studied within unified a entire framework the over life-cycle. health Second, has larger effects for the non-college college than educated, explaining 35% ofand the 31% differences degree and supply labour in government reliance on of transfers across groups, respectively. different education groups, I evaluate the relative importance each of quantify and channel the interactions between them. First, all four channels importantare the for variablesmacroeconomic productivity but the studied, endowment time and channels are the most dominant. I also show that due to significant interactions between The paper studies four channels which through affectshealth individuals: productivity,(1) (2) medical available expenditures, (3) time and survival (4) assessesprobabilities, and their roles determining in asset supply, labour welfare.accumulation and Using a life-cycle model calibrated to the US for

economic consequences.economic different channels through affects health which their individuals and health care system on the type and degree of health is individuals, it faced by risk important understand the to economic decisions. In order In decisions. economic to predict the effects of US the changes to upcoming growing literature, we have have we literature, growing understand how to yet affects health exactly their individuals and to a large debate on health care system reform. rapidly a despite However, regarding financing medical care in the face of ageing populations rising and health care costs have led welfare with potential large withwelfare potential macroeconomic implications. Concerns Current statistics suggest suggest statistics Current that health risk is a major overall risk of component and a big determinant of RESEARCHER CAPATINA ELENA LIFE-CYCLE EFFECTS HEALTH OF RISK

shocks with differentshocks causes and effects: shocks that affect the ability to work and those that do not, shocks that affect future health and transitory, are that those that are shocks and predictable in the sense that they are correlated with health and health previous those and behaviour unpredictable.that are In particular, we use data respondents’on detailed to conditions medical betweendistinguish different types health of

positions at the Department the positions at Queen’s at Economics of University, Department the Strategy and Management of at the Kellogg School of Institute the and Management of Economic Research at University. Hitotsubashi He is currently a Visiting Fellow at UTS. Previously Visiting held Scholar has he (experience) while working, while (experience) and can invest in health medicalcapital through expenditures effort. and The incentives to invest in capital human and health are analysed in relationship to one another. A key feature of the paper is to model a realistic process health over the life-cycle using data from the Medical Expenditure Survey. Panel We build a life-cycle model labourwith endogenous investment and in supply capital.health Individuals accumulate capital human

wide range of health of range wide as such topics, economics informalhealth insurance, elderlycare, care and intergenerational transfers preventiveand health behaviour. His research interests interests research His applied empirical include a and microeconomics that human capital (and the capital (and that human that generates) it income affects and health, vice-versa. magnitudes The of these effects are very controversial of one and the aims of our project is methodsdevelop new to to estimate these effects. investment in health health in investment capital. human is It and important theseconsider to a since jointly decisions large literature suggests

CEPAR in October 2012. in CEPAR role of decisions regarding decisions of role MARUYAMA SHIKO DR BA MA Keio University, PhD Northwestern University RESEARCH FELLOW Shiko Maruyama is a Research Fellow located in the Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales. He joined rising health care costs care health rising and most populations in ageing countries, it is becoming increasingly important to tools neededdevelop the for the design of effective policy aimed at improving health outcomes. Therefore, we aim to fill this gap in the literature by building and health of model estimating a formation over the life-cycle in the spirit of Grossman the emphasising (1972), Due to the present limited theunderstanding of relationship, SES-health most life-cycle existing drastic make models assumptions, simplifying for example assuming that exogenously evolves health life-cycle the over and capitalmodelling human accumulation independently of health. However, given the

factors systematically correlated with both SES health.and the effect of SES on health, the effect of health on SES and the effect of common understood the about it.causal pathways behind The challenge lies in the ability empirically identify to correlation between variablessocio-economic little health, and is invest in health and human life-cycle. the capital over papers previous many While strong a established have socio-economic status (SES) statussocio-economic (SES) health, on focusing and to individuals’ decisions ELENA CAPATINA ELENA studies project The the relationship between RESEARCHERS KEANE MICHAEL MARUYAMA SHIKO INVESTMENT IN HEALTH OVER THE LIFE-CYCLE THE OVER HEALTH IN INVESTMENT

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health working in industry.working in ‘I have started several new projects on the topics of the over investment life-cycle, health and occupational privatemobility, the health insurance in presence universal of health life-cycle, the over insurance change demographic and innovation.‘ medical and relevant today by talking with researchers from fields, other policymakers professionals and

individuals’ incentives to invest in health human and capital affected are the changesby in efficiency of health the production process improvements in (e.g., technology),medical prices the changes in andof goods medical by faced services individuals, and returns the changes in capital human to We study how fields, including Actuarial including fields, Demographics, and Sciences who provide me with new and perspectives.exciting ‘It has been very interesting to participate several in conferences, workshops and by organised series seminar CEPAR. At these events, I gained potential into insights highly are that topics research multidisciplinary environment, feedback valuable receive I from researchers other in

context of life-cycle models of saving.labour and supply ideal an been has CEPAR conductenvironment to research in this area. I have met with many other with affiliated researchers CEPAR with interests and and area, this experience in from greatly benefited have ideas. suggestions and their Also, since CEPAR is a ‘Since my arrival at CEPAR, I have been continuing my research on healthrisk in the

a PhD from the University of research Her interestsToronto. Macroeconomics,include Labour Economics. and Health DR ELENA CAPATINA ELENA DR BA Econ. UBC, MA PhD Toronto RESEARCH FELLOW Elena Capatina is a CEPAR Research Fellow located in the Australian Business of School at the University of New South Wales. She joined the Centre in July 2011 after graduating with by the end of 2013. The paper will be presented at international conferences and sent for publication in a peer-reviewed top rated economics. in journal are affected by changes in efficiencythe health the of production process (e.g., medical improvements in in changes technology), the prices of medical services and goods individuals, and faced by changes in the returns capital. human to We anticipate having finished paper working a

incentives to invest in capital human and health we apply it to conduct to it apply we several counterfactual experiments. example, For study individuals’we how life-cycle through its effect its through life-cycle decisions. labour supply on After model, estimating the investment. We also that healthemphasise capitalimpacts human accumulation the over the allocation of resources between consumption, health and work leisure, throughout their lives,throughout their allowing us to estimate how impactshealth individuals’ as such decisions economic regarding the evolution of health and the degree of health risk they face This modelling is important modelling is This since it enables us to accurately capture how formpeople expectations

which healthwhich requirements one particularone channel through employment and and occupationaland focusing on skillsfocusing on affects life-cycle affects life-cycle earnings profiles, profiles, earnings This project studies

on skills occupationalon and closely is It requirements. related to the project ‘Investment in Health over the Life-cycle’ by Michael Maruyama Shiko Keane, Capatina Elena which and studies the relationship human between and health capital accumulation. Occupational and ‘Health In considerMobility’ not do we invest to decisions individual in health, but instead dig health why into deeper affects the ability to work and earn income over the life-cycle. Occupational market labour switches and interruptions are key for accumulation human the of life-cycle, the capital over understanding the and contribution health of shocks to these closely complements research the in “Investment in Health over the Life-Cycle”. This project studies project oneThis particular through channel affects health which life-cycle employment and profiles,earnings focusing

We will develop our research in the next year and aim to have a completed working paper by the end of 2013. with different specific skills skills specific different with with occupations select different requirements, accumulate and general occupation specific human work, they capital and as associated risks health face with declines in specific skills. We show that the occupational of patterns mobility in the PSID are consistent model with the predictions. Finally, we use how determine to model the various programs such as insurance, health employer wageregulation on discrimination against different of workers health status, disability insurance government skilland training programs affect the efficiency of occupational choices of workers experiencing health shocks, implications welfare drawing associated with reforms in these programs. Titles (DOT). We then construct a model of supply labour individual occupational mobilityand agents where decisions

changes in health status data from the using Dictionary of Occupational earnings is important is earnings for effectsunderstanding the employmentof protection policysuch as the Americans with Disabilities Act of 2009. We document the importance shocks health of occupationalfor mobility Panel data from the using Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). In addition, we study patterns in workers’ specific occupational skill by induced requirements important in the context of countries experiencing rapid wherepopulation ageing policies are needed to keep are (who workers older face to relatively likely more productivehealth shocks) and integrated in the labour knowing example, force. For consequencesthe health of mismatches generated between skills workers’ and occupational requirements employment and on link between link heath and relativelyincomes, little attention has been given to the roles of the mismatch between skills workers’ and occupational requirements and occupation switches in negative the generating relationship between the ourtwo. Increasing theseunderstanding of particularlyissues is

literature has studied the important factor in mobilityoccupational labour as well as decisions market exit. While a large complete inability perform to occupation, current the in potential therefore a is and workers’ skillsworkers’ and occupational requirements. The mismatch in turn leads productivities lower to or abilities to perform to abilities different job tasks, and can therefore between mismatch a to lead lead to sharp declines in individuals’ accumulated cognitive skills. and physical These lower declines imply occupational mobility. occupational Adverse both shocks, health mental, and physical can with negative effects on paper, growth. this wage In study importancewe the of health shocks for High rates of occupational switches imply high levels destroyed capital,of human an individual works. Yet Yet works. individual an mobilityoccupational in the United States is high and has increased over time. consistent with the fact that specific capital is human to the occupation in which Existing research shows that there are large returns occupationalto tenure RESEARCHERS CAPATINA ELENA OLENA STAVRUNOVA HEALTH AND OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY OCCUPATIONAL AND HEALTH

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and cognitiveand ability most the are important factors explaining why individuals higher-risk are less likely buyto insurance We find that lower health expenditure risk individuals more are likely to purchase insurance;Medigap selection the hence into Medigap is in fact advantageous. Income this project is currently is underproject this review in a top international Economics. in journal and find that it would that it find and significantly increase capita care health per expenditure seniors. of research derived from paper A

private health insurance in Australia, others. and research current Her collaboration in CEPAR at with Professor Michael investigate Keane determinantsthe health of insurance of choices the individuals senior in US and Australia. on patient utilisationon health of econometric services; care for demand the modelling of is in fact advantageous. in is cognitive ability and Income most important the are factors explaining why individualsare higher-risk less likely to buy insurance. suggestsThis that informational policies might low encourage to needed be cognitive ability/high-risk purchaseindividuals to supplementary insurance. We also find a large moral hazard effect of Medigap an average, On insurance. with Medigap individual more 32% about spends on health care than a person without Medigap. We simulate the effect of a coverageuniversal Medigap expenditure care health on We find that lower health expenditure individuals risk are more likely to purchase insurance; henceMedigap the selection into Medigap

Economics. published in has She Australianinternational and journals on a variety of topics in econometricsapplied and health including economics, econometric modelling of health care expenditures and hospital waiting times; the impact of hospital waiting times include Applied Econometrics,include Bayesian Econometrics, Health Labour and Economics of insurance demand to demand insurance of expected and expenditure, moral hazard is measured by the difference in expenditures between individuals withidentical and model The without Medigap. allows correlation for between unobserved determinants expenditure of and demand, insurance and heterogeneity sizefor the in effects. hazard moral of We use two data sources, Retirement and Health US the Study (HRS) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey conduct and (MCBS), inference via an MCMC algorithm with data augmentation. an econometric ofan model and demand insurance expenditure, care health adversewhere selection sensitivity by measured is

Olena joined UTS in July 2007 after completing her PhD in Economics at the University of interests research Olena’s Iowa. gaps in Medicare. We develop OLENADR STAVRUNOVA Iowa PhD RESEARCH FELLOW Olena Stavrunova is a Lecturer Discipline Economics the in Group at the University of Sydney a and Technology, CEPAR Research Fellow. Policies that can deal with adverse selection mandatory enrolment) (e.g., can lead togreatly increased aggregate health care costs if the moral hazard effect strong.is This project studies adverse hazard moral selection and in the US Medigap health market.insurance Medigap is a collection of supplementary private cover plansinsurance which It is well known that adverse hazard moral selection and distortcan functioning the markets. insurance of effects manifest Both themselves in a positive relationship between ex- post realisation and risk of but coverage, insurance from a policy point of view between distinction the very two is important.the

this type of insurance function efficiently. uncovered expenditure risks. importantTherefore is it to understand markets if for private health insurance insurance health private potentiallycan offer great benefits reducing seniors to their exposure to these senior citizens) on average on citizens) senior covers only 45% of health costs.care Supplementary For example, in the US primary (the socialMedicare providinginsurance program coverage to insurance health by the government, but still involves significant expenditure. pocket of out In some industrialised some In countries health seniors’ partially is care subsidised RESEARCHERS KEANE MICHAEL OLENA STAVRUNOVA CHOICES OF SENIORS HEALTH INSURANCE INSURANCE HEALTH

old age health and dynamics and to maintaining decisions, theirdecisions, their effects on socio-economic drivers of savings and enhancing life enhancing and Understanding the status essential is quality throughout

Pensions’ section and in the in section and Pensions’ dataset’sdevelopment the of imputation phase. Health, Ageing and Retirement and Ageing Health, operatively being Europe, in involved in the ‘Earnings and factors that need to be tries to one considered when explain or shape in any way the dissaving patterns of continuation In elderly. the of this line of research and directly connected to the last study, Dobrescu and Christelis study issue this angle, another from yet impact the analysing namely on engagement social of especially cognitive abilities, advancedat ages. essential maintaining to quality enhancing ofand life throughout age. old The work developed in2012 revealed important some

journals economics and of mathematical modelling and is active in the research fields microeconometrics,of with particular the on emphasis health ageing, economics of mathematics.economics and She was part of the backbone team that developed the first comprehensive dataset of Europe–Survey in ofageing models using simulations.models using published has She internationalsignificantly in joint effect on food outside bills. phone and home the The model has been completed with several new elements to make it increasingly realistic. NEXT STAGE elements, behavioural Many such as cognitive and functional social abilities, interactions, happiness, longevity loneliness and are intrinsic maintaining to quality and health life. of these all elements Moreover, play a critical role in shaping the of choices economic the Understanding the elderly. drivers savings of decisions, their dynamics and their effects on health and statussocio-economic is Moreover, it appeared that appeared it Moreover, these two factors weaken enhancing in other each utility of food at home and opposite the have finally,

She is an established an is She researcher with expertise in mathematical modelling and estimatingin economic outside the home. outside the LORETTIDR. DOBRESCU I. Nottingham Trent (Hons) BA University, MSc West University of University PhD Timisoara, Padua of INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Loretti a Dobrescu is I. Lecturer in the School of University the at Economics of New South Wales. to consume and engage and consume to activities. social in The project’s aim is to study the impact of being in socially being active and individuals’ on health good patterns. consumption social that show Results interactions affect consumption to a degree impactcomparable with the of health status and this trueholds especially food bills and phone for The final sub-project, out? dining or ‘Staying home interactions and Social consumptionold-age largely was profiles,’ undertaken 2012, through here: documented is and Dobrescu, Motta and Gui developed a dynamic structural life-cycle model, wherein single retired individuals choose can

acceptancepublications and year. placetaking this The first three of these were substantively undertaken in 2011, with journal resubmissions,submission, declining savings patterns and their determinants at the level. individual and national Under this project, a portfolio project, a this Under of four sub-projects was addressdeveloped the to issues related to the BENEDETTO GUI BENEDETTO GUI (UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA) (BOSTON UNIVERSITY)(BOSTON CHRISTELISDIMITRI NAPLES OF (UNIVERSITY II) FEDERICO ALBERTO MOTTA (UNIVERSITY OF NEW WALES) SOUTH LARRY KOTLIKOFF RESEARCHER LORETTI I. DOBRESCU External collaborators DETERMINANTS IN OLD AGE OLD IN DETERMINANTS SAVINGS AND THEIR THEIR AND SAVINGS

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importance of transfersintra-family cohesion social and retirement,in the health of role andinsurance, the degree of substitution between formal informaland care This project will provide framework a for discussions about the

in a peer-reviewed top rated Economics. in journal savings patterns in old age and the process of transferintergenerational wealth. Most importantly,of the aim is to shed light on the bequest motive of the explain theelderly and extent heterogeneity of observed in the data. NEXT STAGE This is a long-term project that is expected to take place over the next two years, aimed at publication This project will provide a framework discussions for importance the about of transfersintra-family and in cohesion social retirement, the role of health insurance, and the degree of substitution between formal informal Moreover, care. and it will provide a better impact the understanding of of these factors on the

using simulation-using estimation.based microeconometric model on the Survey of Health, Retirement and Ageing in Europe (SHARE) data by their sick parents). We plan to estimate developedthe (i.e., children can cover directly a share of the health care costs incurred to allocate fractions of their providingtime to informal care for their parents) assistance financial and transfers from their children, assistance time namely (i.e., children may choose decisions made by their their by made decisions will We children. adult that parentscan consider benefit from two types of medical spending shocks, spending medical labourinteract with the consumption and supply how savings and bequest savingsand how made are which decisions, by the parents in the presence and health of parents in shaping bequest shaping parents in motives in old age. We are particularly interested in This project investigates the transfers of role between elderly their and children RESEARCHERS LORETTI I. DOBRESCU ISKHAKOV FEDOR MODEL WITH CHILDREN’S INTERACTION BEQUEST MOTIVES A LIFE-CYCLE IN

interest. More explicitly, as in Farre et al., (2011) the nature the that assumption effect does not substantially vary economic with the with combined environment error heteroskedasticitythe identifies the causal effect of the nurture effect on education. children’s nurture effect. The nature effect refers to the role parents’ unobservedof as such heterogeneity, innate ability, determining in their children’sability via transmission.genetic The nurture effect is present to the extent that educated efficientlyparents more can bring up their children to knowledge.acquire OLS The estimates of the coefficient intergenerationalof education transmission a are mixture nature nurture of and effects and so they don’t allow an identification of causalthe component intergenerationalof transmission. estimate To the effect parental education of educational children’s on outcomes we follow Klein exploit and (2010) Vella and on error dependence the variables to exogenous identify parameters the of The secondThe component relies traditional distinction the on between two channels of capital transmission,human the nature effect and the

transmission coefficients for variance) and (mean specific percentiles the of transmission coefficients’ thus distributions, contributing the to literature in a novel way. transmission differs between and rural within and areas urban these between areas female children. and male firstThe component of addresses project the the of dimensions three intra- intergenerational household transmission capital, human of namely evolution and dispersion, determinants. we Firstly, provide a systematic investigation of individual- level heterogeneity in education transmission in China. Secondly, we study of dimension gender the intergenerational human transmission of capital to highlight the different fathers’ roles of mothers’ educationand education. children’s on Lastly, we provide a direct evaluation ofthe determination of We use data from the 1980, 1990 and 2000 Chinese Population Census; these understand us data help capital human how

(rencai)

persistence differ across Chinese provinces region? and Does(ii) it increase at times when the return to education is higher? (iii) What is the role of the effectnurture/nature in explaining the evolution educational persistenceof in time and its spatial differences China? in Furthermore, investigate we households Chinese way the technologyconfigure their of human capital transmission in the face of for demands competing educational quality care and ask: and elders, towards educational Does (iv) persistence differ across households that differ by household specific characteristics as such wealth? elderly co-living and Specifically, we contributeSpecifically, we to the literature by addressing following the questions: educational Does (i)

educational education is a primary reshaping the where site of the relationship between can family state and investigated. be and minority togetherand families, with decentralisation, differentiation and diversification of funding. and provision These reforms mean that must make families important about decisions capital investmenthuman for their children. Smaller associated the and families, make change, demographic more even these decisions critical. In this context, Of primary importance for the context in which human capital accumulation takes educational the place are reforms that China has mid the since implemented involved have which 1980s, introduction nine the of compulsoryyears of formal initiatives to and education, lessen burden financial the rural poor for schooling of

particularly the among middle- Chinese growing 2010). (Crabb, class capital. Not surprisingly, capital. surprisingly, Not between link educationthe mobility social hasand importantan resonance, family in providing care for and old and young to investment in human a restructuring of the restructuring a economy and system. welfare social the of It changes the role of the China’s move from “relying on the state” to “relying on oneself” reflects once at labour markets have have markets labour experienced in the past few decades (Knight and Song, 2006). of state workers are all characteristics unique a of transition that Chinese unprecedented. New incentives,economic and vast migration labour retrenchmentdraconian changes since the late the changes since 1980s. The scale of this transformation is Chinese labour markets labour Chinese dramatic undergone have RONG ZHURONG INSTITUTE (NATIONAL FOR LABOUR STUDIES, FLINDERS UNIVERSITY) RESEARCHER MAGNANI ELISABETTA External collaborator RESOURCE ALLOCATION CHINA: IN LABOUR SUPPLY, TRANSMISSION CAPITAL HUMAN AND EDUCATION INTRA-HOUSEHOLD INTERGENERATIONAL INTERGENERATIONAL INTRA-HOUSEHOLD

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Preliminary results... suggest strong a decline in intergenerational educational persistence. ...correlations primarily linesrun along gender and (father-son mother-daughter) and the and Labour Economics, Economic InquiryIndustrial and LaborRelations Review. She has published widely in in published widely has She economics journalsmajor such as

Oxford

39:3, 385-402 39:3,

Economy , Oxford University Press. effect technological and of and organisational change, effectthe demographic of markets labour transition on societal its effects. broad and She is also working on the intra-household effects of with a population ageing middle and low focus on countries.income She is interested in the labour of side demand particularlyeconomics, the and Society, FARRÉ, L., KLEIN, R., AND VELLA, (2011) F. schooling parents’ increasing Does raise the schooling of the next on based Evidence generation? moments, second conditional Bulletin of EconomicsVolume 74, Issue and 5, 676–690 Statistics, KLEIN, R. AND VELLA, (2010), F. triangular class of Estimating a models equations simultaneous restrictions,without exclusion Journal of Econometrics,154, 154-164 KNIGHT, J. AND SONG, L. (2005), Towards a Labour MarketChina in REFERENCES: CRABB, M. (2010) W. Governing the middle-class family in urban China: questions reformeducational and of choice,

the University of New South Wales. rural-urban difference.rural-urban ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MAGNANI ELISABETTA Laurea PhD Bologna, MEcon PhD Yale INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Elisabetta is Magnani Associate Professor of Australian the in Economics Business at of School time-specific coefficient distributions, find we decreasing a evidence of transmission China, in consistent with the expansion ofcontinuing education.public Furthermore, explore the we and determinants mean of schoolingvariances the of transmission coefficients attention special to pay and difference, male-female the minority-majority difference, Preliminary results using OLS non-parametric and estimates suggest strong a intergenerationaldecline in educational persistence. regressionOur results show correlationsthat the gender along primarily run and lines (father-son When mother-daughter). stochastic employ we dominance tests to rank

markets China. in education promises to shed further light on the role that families play in the face labour changing rapidly of high. A focus on family human transmission of capital higher that involves nurture effect is more likely to emerge in those regions/ markets thelabour where returns to education are educational attainment. Furthermore, we aim to establish large whether a We aim to establish which parental characteristics are more likely to favourably children’s on impact

research. I receive enormous enormous receive I research. support Centre from that the allows me to complete a attend papers, of number conferencesvarious and mostworkshops, and importantly, receive instant feedback from top-notch researchers in the field.’ ‘The infrastructure and networks provides that CEPAR very my are to beneficial

behavioural traits affect

those behavioural aspects

It follows that implications of implications that follows It would differ incorporates if one individuals’ decisions. economic commitment, altruism, other and There experimental mounting is and empirical evidenceempirical that temptation, various fiscal monetary and policies generations modelling.generations interests research His macroeconomic include economics, public theory, computational economics, economics. behavioural and Kumru is one of six Early Career Researchers the in Centre funded by the ARC to work on two year projects. research analysis, institutional pension level expertise, high and skills overlappingtechnical in model implantation, writemodel and preliminary a paper, up present our findings at international conferences. By the end of 2013, we expect to have a paper ready for submission to a high quality economics journal. The project was initiated in 2012. We have completed a begun and literature review, model. Through the coding 2013, we will complete the

the project ‘Working project the Longer: Policy Reforms and Practice Innovations’ a funded by large ARC/NHMRC Ageing Well, ProductivelyAgeing Grant. From 2006–2007, he was a lecturer in the School of Celal BayarEconomics, University. He brings to the project a behavioural of mix unique of New South Wales working with Professors Piggott, on McDonald and Woodland other behavioural traits behavioural other affect individuals’ economic follows It decisions. that fiscal various implications of monetaryand would policies differ incorporates one if aspects. behavioural those In this project, we aim to explore consequences the means-testing of incorporating recent developments Behavioural in models. our into Economics This allows us to analyse the implications of means- testing not only in an environment which in to immune individuals are self-control issues but also environments where in individuals suffer from self- and temptation control problems. of this behaviour on an mounting There is economy. empiricalexperimental and evidence that temptation, commitment, altruism, and

Research fellow. EPAR Prior to his appointment at appointment his to Prior ANU, he was a postdoctoral fellow in the School of Economics at the University control problems, and to to and control problems, study impact economic the DR CAGRI KUMRU BA Dokuz Eylul, PhD Pittsburgh AND INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE RESEARCH FELLOW Cagri Kumru is a lecturer in the Research School of Australian the at Economics UniversityNational a and C controversial. Policy proposals carefully must be such evaluated, and assessment been has undertaken using conventional economic modelling. project This brings new a element to modelling by debate the heterogeneous agents in to model economic an separately identify prone are households which self- and temptation to individuals do not save retirement for enough because of myopia.On the the amidst hand, other markets crisis, are economic concerned about long-term fiscal sustainability and abilitythe policymakers of to address these challenges, especially in debt laden countries. Resource-testing is

insurance and can be can and insurance when improving welfare marketsprivate annuities when or missing are their benefit,their and financing coverage structures, they longevity provide all of a growing number of elderly dependents. pension Although age programs vary in terms of adequacy of existing of adequacy deal to programs insurance consumptionwith the needs entails. On the one hand, for policymakers, population raises challengesageing concerns the about and academic debate regarding regarding debate academic burden financial huge the that a social security system Means-testing is an is Means-testing important relatively but the in neglected dimension RESEARCHERS KUMRU CAGRI PIGGOTTJOHN WITH NON-STANDARD PREFERENCES WITH NON-STANDARD LIFE AND CHOICES POLICYPOLICY: ANALYSIS

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Security rules Security The model enablesThe model estimate to me individualhow labour supply retirementand behaviour respond Social changesto in rules. Counterfactual experiments suggest that Early the increasing or Age Retirement eliminating the Social Security earnings test has a moderate or little effect on retirement or supply labour universally while ages, generosity the reducing of SecuritySocial benefits has much larger effects on the retirement and supply labour income the to due ages effect. reducing particular, In SecuritySocial benefits by individuals work makes 20% months per 8.6 additional an lifetime. Individuals choosing sharp retirement respond mostly on the extensive margin delaying by months, eight retirement while individuals choosing smooth retirement respond mostly on the intensive margin increasing by yearly delaying and supply labour month.retirement one only The model enables me to estimate individual how retirement and supply labour to respond behaviour changes in Social Security

proposed in the paper. the proposed in rationalise sharp retirement, supported is betterwhich by data than existing I particular, models. In average, on that, show individuals gradually reduce and week per worked hours per worked weeks keep relativelyyear constant. This is the opposite of what a model with fixed costs would predict, but is consistent with a model adjacent featuring complementarity, is as literature and various data.literature various and Using HRS data, I estimate life-cyclea supply labour model with working habits in which sharp retirement can be explained by quittingworkers turkey. cold produces model The reasonable parameter estimates with good fits.model This model provides an alternative explanation to Models withModels labour discrete choices or fixed costs share the same spirit - a non- concave production function. proposes and paper This estimates a different essentially which approach, assumes non-concave a preference with habit a is this argue persistence. I reasonable assumption and well-supported previous by

in the transition to retirement, non-concavity level of some production or in either required.preference is gradually over time. In order In time. gradually over rationalise individuals why to do not smooth labour supply explain with a standardexplain with a model, where supply labour preferenceboth and productivity change period of part-time work. part-time of period sharp retirement is Such hard - if not impossible - to hours worked. That is, most individuals directly retire from their full-time jobs any through without going most are retirements abrupt an by accompanied discontinuous decline in and of Income Dynamics (PSID), and Health US the and StudyRetirement (HRS). acknowledged, widely is As three widely useddata sets: Currentthe Population Survey (CPS), the Panel Study Security policies. In this first how I document paper, individuals in the US retire labour marketfrom using the for questions ranging from questionsfor ranging assessing the impacts of tax evaluating Social to policies Understanding how as is individuals retire important understanding as why they retire. It is critical RESEARCHER XIAODONG FAN RETIRING COLD TURKEY sample of 1,024 Australians 1,024 sample of to examine the relationship between literacy financial a as retirement planning and FLaT contribution the to Literacy around (Financial the World) study. In aggregate, levels of financial Australialiteracy in were found to be similar to comparable countries with least young, the educated, in those not and unemployed the labour force most atrisk. the unlike However, international financial norm, skills were found to increase with age. The role played by mandatoryAustralia’s private retirement systemarrangements, the of interactionsdefaults, and means-tested the with safety net pension at older questions. open remain ages This work is complemented is work This Bateman and Agnew, by Thorp (2012), who customised a implemented survey to a representative likely to assign a probability to future financial crises expressingrather than uncertainty. investigated more extensively in two studies Bateman, 2012. completed in Louviere,Eckert, Geweke, Satchell and Thorp (2012) relationship analysed the between financial demographics competence, market stock and expectations using responses to questions to and basic and numeracy, the sophisticated financial literacy fielded as part of presentationrisk study. Results indicate increase an competency with financial in education post-school age, be to and income, and greater for males than numeracyfemales, while scores were flat across several ages, gender, education measures and a However, personal income. findingkey that is individuals understanding higher with a risk,of diversification and financial assets are more Financial literacyFinancial and numeracyskills, found to be important rational to risk both in making decision presentation studies, were

regulatory efforts to information risk disclose to the mass market. 37% depending on how the how on depending 37% presented). is risk Inconsistency rates were was risk when lower graphicalpresented as probability and ranges tails than when risk was frequencypresented the as of a negative or positive return.As well, the young and those with low likely more were numeracy inconsistent.be to Stevens and Lai Bateman, (2012) extended this work with an analysis of the observed investment Prospect using choices Theory utility specifications structural a developed and estimate to model individual-specific parameters risk for and preferences gains in losses and loss aversion (see page 62 for further both Together details). studies inform international context of the core expected utility portfolio of model allocation found and significant violations of that model (varying from to 14%

participants asked were retirement three rank to investment under options differentnine presentations of investment risk (drawn from product disclosure practices in Australia, the US and the UK) and four underlying levels of risk. Eckert,Bateman, Geweke, Louviere, Satchell Thorp and assessed the (2011) investment decisions elicited from this DCE in the component of this work is work this of component internationalmotivated by efforts a developing in effectivesimplified and disclosingstandard for ordinary to risk investment people. A discrete choice was experiment (DCE) implemented and designed experimental online an as survey to a representative 1,200sample of fundsuperannuation members. Survey In 2012 CEPAR researchers, CEPAR 2012 In with conjunction their in external collaborators, investigate to continued aspects of these retirement saving choices in research funded primarily bythe five ARC Discoveryyear Grant ‘The choice: of paradox unravelling complex superannuation decisions’. The ‘investment choice’

purchase an income stream products)? product (or Whether and from whom to to Whether from whom and And advice? financial seek whether to draw out savings as a lump sum and/or fund? How much to contribute? Which investment options? retirement income income retirement arrangements must Whether to consider: participate? Which pension Individuals under the Individuals under increasingly prevalent defined contributions world mean more complex more world mean for choices financial retirement savers and members. plan pension Recent developments in in developments Recent incomes retirement the arrangements around JULIE AGNEW WILLIAM OF (COLLEGE AND MARY, USA) (UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE UK) ANDY LAI ANDY CONSULTING) FRY (TAYLOR SATCHELL STEPHEN JOHN GEWEKEJOHN LOUVIERE JORDAN SUSAN THORP (ALL CENSOC, UTS) FEDOR ISKHAKOV FEDOR External collaborators ECKERT CHRISTINE RESEARCHERS BATEMAN HAZEL STEVENS RALPH FOR RETIREMENT SAVINGS RETIREMENT FOR COMPLEX FINANCIAL DECISIONS

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Journal of Pension

Hazel has been a consultant a been has Hazel retirement issues income on to a range of Australian and international organisations, World the OECD, the including Insurance Social Bank, the Administration APEC, (China), CEDA and the CPA. She serves of board editorial the on the Economics and Finance. superannuation making. decision ...a key finding is that individualswith a understandinghigher diversification risk, of financialand assets are more likely to assign a probability future to financial crises rather than expressing uncertainty pension policy developments, policy pension financial the including product disclosure legislation in Australia. Over the past eight years, Hazel has jointly held six ARC Discovery Grants, Discovery ARC an including Grant of $960,000 over undertake to 2010–2014 research better to understand retirementcomplex and on administrative on costs and superannuationcharges of informedfunds has global

increasing of retirementof incomes. The overall her of themes research adequacy the are and security of retirement retirementsaving and benefits, and the responsibility and risk faced retirementby savers under defined contributions retirement income arrangements. work Her Bateman H, C Eckert, Louviere, J Geweke, J S Satchell, S Thorp (2012), Competence and Financial Expectations Formation: Evidence from Australia, Economic Record.Volume 88, Issue 280: 39–63. She has more than 60 research publications in the area of financeeconomics and the The results have been written up in CEPAR Working 25 and Papers 2012/20 as well as the following article:journal

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR BATEMAN HAZEL BEc (Hons) Qld., PhD UNSW INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Associate BatemanHazel is Head of the School of Risk and Australian the Actuarial in School of Business at the University of New South Wales. financial capabilityfinancial with and knowledge retirement of products more income are likely to engage with the retirement benefit decision. phased withdrawal income before the end of life (the risk of ruin) was varied over four levels. A post-task quiz provides a measure of Results ‘engagement’. indicate that the innumerate to fail disengaged and increasingrecognise the exhausting of risk income before the end of life, while individuals with higher

with and without a where period) guarantee the risk of exhausting different liquidity and longevity insurance features (i.e., a phased withdrawal account vs. a life annuity asked to make allocations between two pairs of income stream products with representative sample of 854 near-to-retirement fundsuperannuation members. Participants were choice experiment of choice allocations retirement of a to wealth implemented Eckert, Geweke, Iskhakov, Iskhakov, Eckert, Geweke, Louviere, Satchell Thorp and (2012) analyse observed choices from a discrete voluntary life as annuities well as the complexity of the annuity product Bateman, In 2012 investigation also retirement benefitturned to Motivateddecisions. the by for demand global weak

formats presentation ...our findings as some otheras be as effective recommended by regulator may not show that the risk Australia’s financialAustralia’s presentation format

The results of this research have been written up in Paper Working CEPAR 2012/25. probability of returns thresholds, above or below variability lower have in error propensity than presentations basedon frequency of returns thresholds. above or below We also show that the variability error of in lower propensities are presentations that describe investment of downside the risk, possibly as a result of increased cognitive effort due to loss aversion. The risk presentation that minimises this variability shows investment risk as a 1 in 20 chance of a return threshold. a above findings Importantly, our show that the risk presentation format Australia’s by recommended regulatorfinancial not may be as effective as some presentationother formats. financial decisions.financial finding main Our thatis atpopulation a level, presentations that describe investment risk using the

that describe investment describe that probabilities. using risk These results have strong retirementimplications for income policies which require ordinary people complex make to frequencies, and thatfrequencies, and in lower variances are presentations which risk.emphasise downside presentations risk Graphical better serve those socio- more groups demographic accumulating of risk at insufficient retirement savings, whilst more financially sophisticated individuals benefit from information additional the presentationsprovided in maximum likelihood estimates of individual- specific parameters: utility curvatures over gains and losses, loss aversion, propensity. error and We find that the variance error propensitiesof is lower in presentations that describe investment risk probabilities in using than presentations that use

specifications making when these choices, and derive propensity individuals of to violate the implications of Prospect Theory utility account across four four across account levels risk underlying and presentation risk nine formats. We assess the were asked to rank three rank to asked were investment portfolios for superannuation entire their of Australia’s mandatory retirement savings system. In the experiment, subjects a discrete choice experiment administered representative a to sample members nearly 2,000 of In this project we assess alternative presentations of investment risk using format presenting for information investment to the mass market. retirement savers find difficult.these decisions This highlights the need for a standardisedsimplified and Defined Contributions (DC) Defined Contributions (DC) retirement to approach many saving. However, Sound investmentSound decisions increasingly becoming are prevalentimportant the under External collaborator LAI ANDY CONSULTING) FRY (TAYLOR RESEARCHERS STEVENS RALPH BATEMAN HAZEL INVESTMENT PROSPECT UNDER CHOICES THEORY RISK INFORMATION AND RETIREMENT AND INFORMATION RISK

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We assess the extent to which individual risk preferences determine family planning driven are or decisions family changesby in formation quantify and resultingthe impact savingon and investment decisions

deeper understandingdeeper of the inter-linkages between family formation financial and decisions.planning In 2012 the research methodology developed was results empirical key and obtained. The project will be further developed in 2013. A CEPAR working paper will submitted and produced be for publication to a top journal. economic ranking Demographic change is change Demographic fundamentally altering family structures and living studyarrangements. Our contributes a towards

identify the impact of variables.exogenous 12,000 respondents in the Study Panel Socio-Economic is sample The period (SOEP). 2004–2009, which allows us to assess the impact of the individual on crisis financial preferencesrisk and Panel planning. financial modelling and data analysis to employed are techniques individuals’ risk model preferences portfolio and over and time over choices the cross-section and to research area. We assess the extent to which preferences risk individual planning family determine driven by are or decisions formation, family changes in quantifyand resulting the saving and on impact investment decisions. Our study is based on data on risk attitudes, investment demographic and decisions, socio-economic and characteristics from elicited An importantAn determinant individuals’ saving and of investment is decisions attitude taking. risk towards researchPrevious empirical links documented has between and aversion risk investment savings and between risk and decisions planning. family and aversion studyOur contributes new findings this complex to

and household saving household and and investment decisions. These trends and interactionsThese and trends motivate this study on the between formationlinks family time, the decreased stability partnershipsof higher implies uncertaintyeconomic and shorter investment horizons. average a higher disposable higher a average previous than income same the generations. At and aged care costs incurred retirement longer during that Households phases. on have children fewer have are expected to rely more and more on privatesavings and to planning financial individual consumptioncover increasing These demographic trendsThese demographic significanthave economic implications. Households increased divorce rates and fraction increasing thean of population remaining childless child. one only having or substantial declines in fertility replacementrates below level, falling marriage rates, Similar demographic trends demographic Similar are observed in most developed countries: FANNY KLUGE KLUGE FANNY (MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH) DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCHER HANEWALD KATJA External collaborator RISK ATTITUDES AND FINANCIAL PLANNING FINANCIAL AND ATTITUDES RISK THE IMPACT OF FAMILY STRUCTURE FAMILY OF ONTHE IMPACT

projects. The software in related CEPAR produced this by faster easier and model developmentmodel project will facilitate highest theoretical and methodological quality which substantialhave relevance in policy economic for world.’ Australia the and ‘Working at CEPAR gives me a participate chance to unique in research projects of the

Economics Letters Carroll, C. (2006) ‘The method of solving for points grid- endogenous dynamic stochastic optimisation problems’, 91(3):312-320 His Majesty the King of medal, for gold Norway’s best social research the in young sciences among researchers in Norway in 2008. lie interests research His in the area of structural microeconometrics, and specificallymore dynamic in modelling choice. individual of His doctoral thesis, ‘A dynamic ‘A doctoral thesis, His structural health analysis of awarded retirement,’ was and international economics journal, along with a software for package discrete- sequential solving models.continuous choice produced by the method. the by produced This project is expected to at aimed paper a produce publication in a peer- reviewed top rated 4

Petersburg University (2009- 2010) and a Visiting Research Scholar at the University of Maryland in 2006 and 2010. Between 2002 and 2011 he had association Frisch with the an ResearchCentre Economic for at the University of Oslo where he has held the positions of research fellow and postdoctoral research fellow. Technology Sydney (2010–2012), Technology lecturer Graduate the in St at Management of School relying as little as possible particular a on model specification, precisely and define the class of dynamic stochastic control optimal problems to which it can applied. be In 2012 the algorithm fullywas and developed generic a as implemented thatcomputer program can beeasily adjusted model various for specifications. method The was applied and tested in several applications. The latest version of the code is available in the public domain. The remaining work on the project will detailed study more include of the accuracy of solutions calculations upper the of envelope of a finite set of linear functions.piece-wise literature previous Unlike formulate algorithmwe the

endogenous grid endogenous 4 University of New South Wales. research a was he Previously fellow at the Centre for the Study of Choice, University of with more efficient ISKHAKOV FEDOR DR BMath CandSc St Petersburg State University, MSc PhD University of Oslo RESEARCH FELLOW SENIOR Senior a Iskhakov is Fedor Research Fellow at CEPAR located in the Australian School of Business at the dynamic models of models dynamic retirement choices. In this project we extend Carroll’s with models for method and discrete simultaneous continuous choices. We solutionpropose algorithm a costly avoids both which operations root-finding with respect to continuous variables and decision replaces optimisation across discrete decisions retirement is veryretirement is evident. are choices Retirement usually modelled within a framework, choice discrete most studies disregard and underlying of choices the savings.consumption and By moving the boundary of computational tractability, this project will facilitate development morethe of accuraterealistic and

nature of the decisions nature the of approaching people by made A typical focus of life-cycle retirement the is models choice, where the dynamic studying realistic models in resulting class, this of oversimplification and policy relevance.limited Computational tractability always has been a limiting factor in computationally demanding life-cycle models involving discretesimultaneous continuous choices.and This project develops a new method of solving JOHN RUST MARYLAND) OF (UNIVERSITY SCHJERNING BERTEL (UNIVERSITY COPENHAGEN) OF FEDOR ISKHAKOV FEDOR External collaborators RESEARCHER DISCRETE-CONTINUOUS SEQUENTIAL DECISION PROBLEMS DECISION SEQUENTIAL DISCRETE-CONTINUOUS EXTENDING THE METHOD ENDOGENOUS GRID SOLVINGFOR

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Modelling , Springer. , , Oxford Introduction to capital to meet regulatory requirements,a reinsurance contract a and longevity bond Risk managementRisk strategies of the annuity provider include holding (2011), Insurance Mathematics.Technical and FinancialFeatures of RiskTransfers Olivieri, and S. Haberman, A. (2009), Longevity DynamicsPensions for and AnnuityBusiness University Press. Pitacco, E., Denuit, M., Olivieri, A. and Pitacco, E.

• •

on an AFIR professional development courses master and Italy and programmes (in actuaries both for abroad) the non-actuaries, and in mathematics actuarial of field management risk and author an is She techniques. co-author many of and research articles and recent textbooks:the ASTIN Bulletinrelated topic. She has continuouspresented in of the European Group of Insurance and Risk Palma Economists (EGRIE), de Mallorca, Spain, 17–19 the and 2012 September IAA International AFIR/ERM Colloquium, Mexico City, October,1–4 2012. A research will paper working submitted finalised and be to a leading international journal in early 2013. The results of this project presented several at were international academic conferences in 2012 Seminar 39th the including

. In 2011 she

European (Italy) and Associate and (Italy) Istituto Italiano degli management. She is an an is management. She actuary of full member and the Attuari Editor of the Actuarial Journalwas awarded the Bob Alting Prize, Memorial Geusau von together with Ermanno Pitacco, for the best the published in paper Her areas of research areas of includeHer life health insurance and risk modelling and management strategiesmanagement of annuitythe include provider holding capital to meet regulatory requirements, a reinsurance contract and a longevity Shareholder bond. value is assessed using an balanceeconomic sheet Market-Consistent a and Value Embedded approach.(MCEV) This project extends the research of the CEPAR Capital, “Solvency project Capitalisation and Pricing Strategies of Life Annuity Providers.” A new mortality by developed model Blackburn Sherris is and used to project survival rates and a broader range of longevity management risk strategies considered. is management and Solvency II and management capital requirements allowing for both systematic idiosyncraticand longevity Risk considered. are risk

Science and Finance in the Finance in and Science Department Economics of at the University of Parma. demand elasticitiesdemand is Capitaldeveloped. OLIVIERI ANNAMARIA PROFESSOR Business Economics, in Degree University of Parma, Degree in Statistics, and Actuarial Science University PhD, Florence, of University Brescia of INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Annamaria Olivieri Professor is Mathematicalof Methods Actuarial Economics, for impact of longevity risk strategies involving and reinsurance securitisation value the on of a life insurance company issuing life annuities. stochastic A multi-period annuity provider an for model with systematic and idiosyncratic longevity risk, market frictions such as taxes, costs, agency and distressfinancial costs and policyholders’ price-default- and the wealth transfer the fromand policyholders the through limited liability put option levels lower holding when of capital. Higher levels of insurersolvency allow the to charge higher premium policyholders when loadings lifepurchasing annuities preferenceshave more for capitalisedhighly insurers. This project assesses the

the insurer. These include insurer. the the frictional costs of raising capital, the agency costs of holding high levels of capital obligations. Costs are varyingincurred when the level of capitalisation of as well as from investment returns on the assets in needed those of excess policyholder meet to expect to earn a return on capital by generating a profit insurance business, the on retirement income. Capitalretirement income. is held by these insurers for regulatorysolvency and Shareholdersrequirements. Longevity risk is a major risk faced by providers of products a that guarantee ANNAMARIA OLIVIERI OLIVIERI ANNAMARIA SHERRIS MICHAEL RESEARCHERS CRAIG BLACKBURN (CEPAR PHD STUDENT) HANEWALD KATJA STRATEGIES MAXIMISING A FIRM VALUE IN FRAMEWORK COMPARING LIFE INSURER LONGEVITY LIFE INSURER COMPARING MANAGEMENT RISK

than lump-sum income-stream productprovider are riskierare for the The results of the project show that reverse mortgages reverse mortgages

submission in early 2013. reverse mortgages. income-stream particular, In reverse mortgages are exposed to longevity risk contract delayed in resulting higher a and termination risk of negative equity for product provider. the analysisThe provides a cost determining for basis effective designs of reverse mortgages issuer’s from an perspective thus and contributes to a better understanding how of these products be should designed to meet individual retirees’ needs. financial This research project was completed in 2012 and the presentedresults to were Australianthe Actuarial Research and Education Symposium at Monash University December 7 on 2012. The results will be written up in a working journal for paper The results of the project that income-streamshow reverse mortgages are product the riskier for lump-sum than provider

and uncertainand loan measures Risk termination. Value-at-Risk the as such conditional the and (VaR) VaR are used in conjunction with sensitivity analyses to assess the solvency capital to be set aside for reversethe mortgages types different and contract setting. to the individual’s health individual’s the to status. The model is used to simulate the cash flows for different reverse mortgage designs and to derive the fair premium of the No negative equity (NNEG) guarantee typically in embedded reverse mortgage contracts. The level of the NNEG premium indicates the sensitivity ofthe different house to product designs price risk, interest rate risk Reverse Home Mortgage and Products”Reversion and Equity Release“Home Products Allowing for Idiosyncratic House Price Risk” (see page 33). multi-period a develop We stochastic pricing for model reverse mortgages allowing for house price risk, interest uncertain and risk rate contract linked termination

Markets: Risk AnalysisMarkets: for Risk equity release products and is related to the projects “Developing EquityRelease impact of different of impact loan settings borrower and characteristics. project The extends CEPAR’s research on lifetime income, or an an or lifetime income, inflation-indexed lifetime income, and assess the mortgages. consider We different payout structures lump-sum as such constant a payments, quantify risk compare and profiles and profitability for different designs of reverse the risk of negative equity at contract termination. The aimof this project is to consider the design of these of design the consider products in order to ensure of mitigation solvency and lossespotential from arising providing retirees with Providers funding. additional of reverse mortgages must mortgage is a financialmortgage a is to designed innovation unlock some of the equity value of real estate assets, ownership is an important an is ownership security financial of source to fund retirement. A reverse MICHAEL SHERRIS MICHAEL For many retirees, home RESEARCHERS DANIEL CHO STUDENT) HONOURS (CEPAR HANEWALD KATJA DESIGN OF REVERSE OF MORTGAGES DESIGN RISK MANAGEMENT AND PAYOUT PAYOUT AND MANAGEMENT RISK

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66 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 67 The risk faced product the by provider quantified was along with risk-adequate the of thesepricing contracts capital the and requirements supportto product. the

‘Lifetime Dependence the Modelling using MultivariateTruncated Gamma Distribution’, Eighth International Longevity Capital Markets and Risk Solutions Conference, Canada.Waterloo, 2012 September, 7–8 Alai, D. Chen, H., Cho, D., Sherris, M. and K., Hanewald, Equity Release‘Developing AnalysisMarkets: for Risk Reverse Mortgage and Eighth Reversion’, Home International Longevity Capital Markets and Risk Solutions Conference, Canada. 7–8 Waterloo, 2012. September, The projects were presented atleading a international conference: Alai, D., Landsman, Z. Sherris, M. and

parameter estimation parameter developed were techniques the on variation a using which moments, of method allows truncation. for systematicThe component longevityof included risk in the model is contrasted that models with traditional livesassume independent valuation the considering by based capital risk for and annuity portfolios. lifetimes within a group. The survival of an modelled is individual specific individual with an idiosyncratic componentor or aggregate an and systematic component. distribution gamma The was used to model these components. Because individual lifetimes in a group are assumed multivariate follow a to distribution,gamma Research also investigatedResearch modelling approach to a dependenceinclude amongst insured lives as a result of systematic mortality.improvements in explicitly model The captures both idiosyncratic systematicand longevity risk. These two components of longevity risk were individualconsidered for

contract termination probabilities from arising long-term into entry death, refinancing. and care, and interest rates in real multi-state Markov terms. A model to used was model Economic scenarios were Economic vector- a generated using autoregressive for model house prices, rental yields these contracts and the capital to requirements support product. the perspective. faced risk The product was provider the by quantified along with the of pricing risk-adequate and the home reversion home the and contract, assessed were provider’s from the The cash flow risk profiles of two most equity popular the release products, the reversetraditional mortgage annuity portfolios and longevity of financing risk reverseusing mortgages. (UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA) OF (UNIVERSITY considered research 2012 In aspects of risk modelling of HUA CHEN CHEN HUA (TEMPLE UNIVERSITY) LANDSMAN ZINOVIY MICHAEL SHERRIS SHERRIS MICHAEL DANIEL CHO STUDENT) HONOURS (CEPAR External collaborators RESEARCHERS ALAI DANIEL HANEWALD KATJA AND RISK MODELS LONGEVITYFINANCING

is on developing models developing on is to predict morbidity in an ageing economy with an ofpopulation. range The parameters varying through time, and the uncertainty surrounding makes evolution, their this a challenging task. special has work This estimatesrelevance to of future aged care as well as demand, providing essential information about risk to long-term care insurance providers. HEALTH AND AGED CARE The focus here, in contrast to related work care aged and health on two, and strands one in • •

pension taxationpension an in analysis overlapping generations model; public of analysis sector pensions in both Australia and the UK; and a detailed plan to pensions public provide workers migrant rural to in China who work for private companies, but have no access to urban pension. the RETIREMENT INCOME Research includes • Coordination of these of Coordination activities can make the difference between a successful response and by dogged is which one difficultyongoing and conflict. Through 2012, CEPAR research within this strand has focused on: • INTEGRATING PUBLIC AND AND PUBLIC INTEGRATING PROVISIONPRIVATE OF PRODUCTSAND SERVICES

IMPACTED BY POPULATIONIMPACTED BY AGEING. EXAMPLES INCLUDE RETIREMENT INCOME, HEALTH AND AGED CARE. BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE, AND WHICH ARE RESEARCH THIS WITHIN STRAND FOCUSES ON MAJOR AREAS AND ECONOMIC OF WHICH IN ACTIVITY SOCIAL STRAND 3 STRAND

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68 STRAND 3 INTEGRATING PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PROVISION OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

Effective integration of public and private sources for retirement income, health insurance and aged care will become increasingly important as populations age. This research covers retirement products and the decisions households take regarding their purchase; health behaviour choices, including choices regarding preventive health; and purchases of aged related products and services. The analysis is designed to discover what innovations, by government and business, might improve outcomes.

TO VIEW PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS RELATING TO THIS RESEARCH VISIT CEPAR.EDU.AU RESEARCH PROJECTS

Progressive Tax Changes to Private Pensions in a Life-cycle Framework 69

Public Sector Pension Funds in Australia: Longevity Selection and Liabilities 70

Reform of Ill-health Retirement Benefits for Police in England and Wales: The Roles of National Policy and Local Finance 71

Pensions in China 72

Multi-state Markov Models for Individual Ageing Pathways (Morbidity and Mortality Trajectories) Using Longitudinal Data 74

Multi-state Actuarial Models for Health Status with Applications to Long-term Care 75

Modelling Systematic Longevity and Health Risk: A Subordinated Markov Model 76

Individual Mortality Modelling Using Longitudinal Data 77

Systemic Risk and the Hedging of Longevity Risk via Securitisation 78

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of hypothetical replacements of existingthe superannuation tax regime with the traditional EET and TEE tax regimes This research This provides a quantitative analysis of Chief Investigators and exchange of ideas with other the at fellows research Centre. Participation CEPAR at conferences workshops and policymakersinvolving and industry professionals has understandingbroadened my of the issues related to population ageing.’ ‘Since joining CEPAR I have benefited greatly from the suggestionscomments and

. He is Economic Record projects on the taxation of theprivate pensions, fiscal effects and economic in population ageing of Australia interaction the and means-between pension housing. testing and Journal of Macroeconomicsand research in involved currently at the 18th International Conference Computing in on Finance (CEF and Economics 2012), Prague, June 2012. In response to feedback on the efficiency aggregate paper, sensitivityimplications and undertaken. be will analysis It is anticipated that the paper will be submitted for publication by July 2013. especially under the shift the especially under towards the EET tax regime. reported researchThis is in paper Working CEPAR 2012/09 and was presented management in the Czech the in management Republic, and received a PhD in economics from the University of Sydney in 2009. research interestsHis include economic economics, pension modelling, computational economics the economics and of ageing. He has written articles the published in Economics. He completed his He Economics. undergraduate studies in insuranceeconomics and that allows for importantthat allows for interactions between and behaviour household public superannuation, tax policy and pension recently have settings. We extended the model to allow withdrawals gradual offor savings.superannuation The results simulation indicate that the three examined superannuationreforms to taxation improve the vertical equity, as shown by larger relative gains in welfare and incomes experiencednet by households. income lower We also show that the reforms positive have long run effects on aggregate assetstotal household and saving, which are significantly larger We developed a small overlapping open-economy that model generations (OLG) disaggregates households into income quintiles and

CEPAR in 2011 after working postdoctoral a as researcher for the UNSW School of taxpayers percent 15 pay contributions. their tax on KUDRNA GEORGE DR Republic, Czech TUL Econ MA Syd. Econ PhD RESEARCH FELLOW CEPAR a is Kudrna George Research Fellow located in Australianthe of School Business at the University of New South Wales. He joined reforms, the existing flat tax contributionsrates on and fund earnings that are by paid currently funds aresuperannuation the either and abolished withdrawals the or contributions are taxed at we 2012, In rates. marginal extended to analysis the capture the TEE variant recommended by AFTS (2010). This includes a flat-rate tax offset so that most superannuation featuressuperannuation a flat tax rate on contributions investmentand earnings, with benefits being generally tax-free. This research provides a quantitative of analysis hypothetical replacements of theexisting taxsuperannuation regime with the traditional EET and TEE tax regimes. Under both

income but then applies no but then income further tax. By contrast, the taxexisting treatment Australia’s to applied [TEE] regime, which allows deductions ofno contributions from gross treated as ordinary income taxed progressively.and alternativeAn is approach “Taxed-Exempt-Exempt”the contributions fund and income are exempt from any taxation but benefits are savings. Most countries tax private under pensions their “Exempt-Exempt-Taxed” the [EET] regime where treatments that aim to retirement private increase householdincomes and Private pension pillarsPrivate pension world benefit the around from concessional tax RESEARCHERS KUDRNAGEORGE WOODLAND ALAN PENSIONS A LIFE-CYCLE IN FRAMEWORK PROGRESSIVE TAX CHANGES TO PRIVATE

20 years20 older increase if he is even larger 5.2% that a uniform 10% probabilities would increase in survival Our results indicate in pension liabilities pension in owed to a 60-year old male pensioner and an and male pensioner trigger a 2.0% increase 2.0% a trigger

Paper Series (2012/17). Paper omission of future of omission mortality improvements from liabilities valuation is inversely related to age. Consequently, as the structureage-membership in a pension scheme matures, scheme-specific longevity systematicselection and risk becomeshocks quantitatively more important larger have and consequences plan for aggregateliabilities than omission the selection or risk mortalityof improvements. During 2012, the project completed. findings The was were presented at the Insurance and American Risk AnnualAssociation 2012 Meeting and the 20th of Colloquium Annual ResearchersSuperannuation has paper the and UNSW, been submitted to an journal. paperinsurance The can be accessed online as part of the CEPAR Working and an even larger 5.2% even an and increase if he is 20 years older. In contrast to this, the resultant understatement of liabilities from arising

60-year old male pensioner male old 60-year example, have almost have 30%example, mortalitylower the than sector public average translates This pensioner. into a 6.4% increase in the obligations for pension more A$23,464 or employer, our based on pensioner per estimates. value present Our results indicate that a uniform 10% increase in survival probabilities would trigger a 2.0% increase in pension liabilities owed to a We find evidence of aggregate longevity agesselection younger at but not at ages beyond 85, possibly because higher proportions pensioners’ of deaths concentrated are to compared ages older at population-at-large. the longevityThe selection effect at scheme level is also quantitatively important: the of one pensioners in male occupational schemes, for longevity shocks. determineTo the extent aggregate longevityof selection, construct we mortality pensioner the compareexperience and population general that to mortality. We also apply a proportional hazards model to test for the presence scheme-specificof longevity selection.

computational of omission mortality and improvements, unexpected systematic unfunded pension liabilities.unfunded pension Four main aspects of longevity considered, are risk longevityincluding selection, impact of increasing longevity differential and longevity pensioner public on Australian sector public available schemes (made to Mercer) by generously assess quantify and the This project leverages on micro-level data on a closed of set complete servants, which may be distinguished as a group from population. general the related to these unfunded the liabilities is pension future life expectancy and mortality outcomes civil of liabilities for future taxpayers. of generations A uncertainty of source major traditionally enjoyed Definedtraditionally enjoyed Benefit pension entitlements, often unfunded, thereby creating In common with many other countries, Australian public sector employees have JOELLE FONG H NJENGACAROLYN RESEARCH ASSISTANT) (CEPAR RESEARCHERS PIGGOTTJOHN SHERRIS MICHAEL LONGEVITY SELECTION AND LIABILITIES AND SELECTION LONGEVITY PUBLIC SECTOR PENSION FUNDS AUSTRALIA: IN

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alleviating constraints on central funding of retirement.ill-health The research was published paper working NBER as in#18479 October 2012. statistically correlated with differentialthe capacities of police authorities to revenues from localraise property taxes, thereby

the NHS Pay Review Body and Winsor’s Tom advisor to an investigation police of researchremuneration. His interests lie largely in the field microeconomics, applied of notably market labour issues, spending. public and pensions He has published widely in journals. academic top He is a member of the Senior Salary Review Body, having of member a previously been ill-health retirement from ill-health central government towards with local cost-sharing police authorities – are described. We show that measures these significantly on impacted ill-health of level the retirement, especially in forces with statistically higher rates of ill-health pre-reform, retirement once we control for stress factors. However a degree of ‘regression to the mean’ fullycannot be rejected placebo tests.by We also show that residual differences ill-health in retirement rates across forces after these reforms enacted are were retirement provisions and to to and retirement provisions arrangements thatpension occurred in the mid-2000s – and in particular a shift in financing of incidence the

College University London of and at the University of Kent at Canterbury. He has held the both visiting positions at International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and has consultant a the for been World Bank, the ILO, the UK of number a and OECD government departments. He has been a Professor of University the at Economics Mary Nottingham,of Queen at service in the police force. of series a Accordingly ill-health the to reforms were retirement provisions introduced in the mid-2000s to reduce the extent of retirement ill-health officers. police among This project examines the retirement rates ill-health of police officers in the forces England and of between Wales 2002–03 Differences 2009–10. and in ill-health retirement rates across forces police are statistically related to area-specific stresses of force- to and policing specific differences in resourcehuman policies. Reforms to police ill-health ill-health claims by some some by claims ill-health an by forcespolice and complete on emphasis deployability a as requirement for continued

rates stemmed in large part from lax of monitoring DISNEY RICHARD PROFESSOR BA Camb., MA Sussex INVESTIGATOR PARTNER Research a is Disney Richard Fellow at the Institute for is He London. Fiscal Studies in also a visiting Professor in University at Economics College London. ill-health even before even ill-health has age normal pension reaching high, also been a peak of over half of all officepolice retirements in the late 1990s. There is little evidence that police officers have lower rates of life expectancy pre-normal after indeed retirement, nor the retirement,normal and presumption of HM Treasury and Home Office was that retirement ill-health such This allows officersThis police to retire on a full pension atrelatively a young age – often before age 50. Recent reforms will see age normal pension this increase significantly. Nevertheless, despite this relatively early age of normal retirement, the rate of retirement from the police force on grounds of

of ill-health related retirement in the national Police Pension Scheme in Britain. pension fund liability. fund pension This study examines the specific case of the treatment circumstances, such as such circumstances, health status or years of considerablyservice, add can to the present value of the confined to the value of the Other paid. is it when pension provisions, specific related to attention because of their their generosity, and governmentimplications for budgets. Generosity not is Around the world, publicAround the schemessector have pension attractingbeen increasing ROWENA CRAWFORD FISCAL FOR (INSTITUTE STUDIES, LONDON) RESEARCHER DISNEYRICHARD External collaborator AND WALES: THE ROLES NATIONAL OF POLICY AND LOCAL FINANCE REFORM OF ILL-HEALTH RETIREMENT BENEFITS POLICE FOR REFORM ILL-HEALTH OF ENGLANDIN

and privately managedand assets.pension rural, and urban migrant, sectorpublic workers. A quick review of China’s arrangements couldpension suggest comprehensive a system income retirement safetycomprising nets, and earning-related and voluntary components. careful more a However, examination identifies issues with coverage, benefit securityadequacy, both governance. Using and economy- and individual reform, for criteria wide advocate Liu Bateman and unification of the separate systems, greaterpension the and pre-funding, and policies introduction of practices to facilitate higher returns from pension assets. They emphasise that key to sustainable reform will be establishmentthe a of regulatory framework with well-defined governance publicly both for structures Bateman and Liu (2012) current assess the critically future and of, operation overall pension the plans for, system China, covering in

of a universal pension social a of the using China, for scheme poverty standard the as line benefit. pension for Baseline access age is 62. We take systematic of account longevity improvements by providing new estimates of longevity future the into Lee-Carter the using Alternativeapproach. fertility used scenarios are to assess the burden of the younger plan on central Our generations. estimates lie in the range of 0.5% - 1.5% of GDP annually, over 40 a year horizon, with those that assuming entitlement pension urban paper This excluded. are accepted for been has presentation the at Harvard-Stanford conference, “Economic Aspects Population of China India”, and Aging in March 7–8, 2013. More than half China’s populationhas little cash benefit entitlement later in life. Lu, He and Piggott (2012) calculate the revenue costs ,

and reduce the future government liability for payouts pension other in systems in which migrants currently membership. hold This research was presented at the CESifo Summer meetings in Venice in July, currently review. is under and regional migration in the history. Young world’s moving are workers rural to urban areas, often in a different province, for substantial of periods working lives.their Lu and Piggott (2012) unusually the propose using features mobility flexible of a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) ensure to mechanism entitlementspension for migrating workers, in both accumulationthe and phases.drawdown appropriatelyAn structured type this is of plan NDC shown to be viable by reference to a previously Zhejiang of developed model security social Province’s systems. proposed The mobility remove would plan workers migrating barriers to retirement the increase workers,benefit mobile for Related to rural pensioner pensioner rural Related to support pension are arrangements migrants. for China is currently largest the undergoing

Hangzhou, China in May currently is and 2012, review. under public pension. We find this find We pension. public significantly rural improves income inequality in Gansu but province) low-income (a makes little difference in province). rich (a Zhejiang Transfers to low income regions from migrants are income improve to found inequality elders rural for was well. paper as This presented at the First Ageing & Social Security International Conference in changes in privatechanges in transfers.intergenerational Results indicate that net private transfers are inmost cases uncorrelated with household income, suggesting current that the public transfer (the new rural out crowd not will pension) private transfers. Based on these findings, index Gini to employed simulations are inequalitycompare income with and without the rural CEPAR research in 2012 has two behavioural examined issues: design three and Lu (2012) uses the China Retirement and Health Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data to investigate the net impact on the old age inequalityhousehold income rural pension new the when taking place, in is plan estimated of account

the rural sectors, the rich and the poor in China. that time. The new scheme is partly motivated by concern income widening about the between and urban gap the cover some 600 million with 105 about members, million receiving benefits at to be the world’s largest, at least in terms of membership. By the time it fully will it is implemented, and rural migrant pensions. migrant rural and China’s new Rural Pension in announced scheme, destined is 2009, October grant with Chinese partners, research over the past two years has focused on rural CEPAR supports a major China’s on project research system. Partlypension supported by an ARC Linkage ZHENZHEN YANG UNIVERSITY) ZHEJIANG (ALL WENJIONG HE YAO XIANGUO MI HONG HAZEL BATEMAN HAZEL External collaborators LIU KEVIN (UNSW) RESEARCHERS BEI LU PIGGOTTJOHN PENSIONS IN CHINA IN PENSIONS

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spearheaded a research project project research a spearheaded University Zhejiang with which formed the basis of a successful grant Linkage During 2010. application in 2011–2012, she presented at CESifo Seminar in Venice, the Reform in Forum Pension China Beijing and the First Aging and SecuritySocial International Conference Hangzhou, in PRC. evaluating the Bank’s support Bank’s evaluating the Asian reform the pension in of region. Most recently, she

roject with the provincial government Zhejiang of province, China, which examined the impacts of various reformpension proposals in that province, and this has on-going an of basis formed the with pensionengagement policymakerseconomists and in China. In 2004, she assisted Operations Bank’s World the Evaluation Department in linkages over the past ten years. In 2003, she initiated a research p of Pension Policy and Pension of Products,Insurance submitted to the 27th International Population Conference, Busan, Korea, 26–31 August 2013 Lu B., Yang Z., Mi H. and Piggott J. (2012),How do People Predict their Life Expectancy? – A Survey in Implications China: Rural

the metal industry for 12 years. returned in academia She to 2002 to undertake a PhD in Economics at the University of NewSouth Wales. Her thesis and focuses research subsequent related and social pensions on issues. economic welfare and Bei has been very successful in internationaldeveloping After graduating from Tsinghua After graduating from Tsinghua University Beijing, worked in Bei international in trader an as conference “Economic on Aspects Population of Aging in China and India” to be held March, 7–8 2013 at Stanford University. Lu B. and Piggott J. (2012), Meeting the Migrant China, ChallengePension in presented at the CESifo Institute Summer Venice “PortabilityWorkshop Benefits: Social of The Economics of a Critical Globalisation” in Topic July, 2012.on 16–17 Lu B. (2012), Rural Pension, Inequality Income Family and Transfer in China, presented at the First Aging & Social Security International Conference Hangzhou, in PRC, May, 2012. 21–23 Lu B., and He W. Piggott J. (2012),Should China Introduce a Basic accepted by Pension, Social Harvard-Stanfordthe

Research Fellow with Zhejiang University, China. DR BEI LU BA Tsinghua, MBA S. Aust., PhD UNSW POSTDOCTORAL FELLOW Bei Lu is a CEPAR Postdoctoral Fellow located in the Australian Business of School at the University of New South Wales, and a the Demographic Clock, Demographic the presented at the Mariazell “How 2012, Dialogue many people? How much consumption our can planet sustain? How many do we need to sustain systems”, social our Mariazell, Austria on 25–27 January 2012. younger women also women younger underestimate life expectancy, younger overestimate time men to death relative to estimates. national Outputs from the arising include:project Bateman H., and Liu K. (2012), Pension Reform China: Racing againstin

life expectancy relative to national data. But while perceptions of their life and expectancy. men Both women over the age of 60 are found to underestimate their relationships are more are relationships important economic than statusin people’s two provinces, one rich and preliminary Our poor. one that indicate results family and demographics and various demographic, demographic, various and factors. economic and social Current focuses analysis on Piggott and Mi (2012) statistically analyse the relationship between subjective life expectancy assess the accuracy accuracy assess the individuals’ lifeof expectancies. Yang, Lu, The final project, still in Chinese uses progress, survey data on which CEPAR was able to advise, to

to death We develop pathways of pathways risk models to from retirement and for modellingand changes in healthchanges in include morbidity, methodologies for extending longevity

long-term care solutionslong-term individuals. products to and outputsKey include will transition individual-level probabilities between of measures states, health expected total life healthyexpectancy, life spentexpectancy time and in different health states, expected presentand value linked streams payments of as such events, ill-health to disability long-term and insurance.care In 2012, the modelling framework established was preliminaryand results were data from the using obtained Retirement and Health US Australian An Survey. longitudinal dataset suitable modellingfor transition rates ageing individual along obtained was pathways from the DYNOPTA research group based at the ANU node of CEPAR. The research will increase rangeunderstanding the of of ageing pathways at an will and level individual be useful for targeting

to ill-health, and from all states to death) vary across estimating population by the transitionindividual-level probabilities using generalised linear models.mixed of changes in health from retirement to death. model multi-state Markov A capture to employed is ill-health repeated) (possibly to pathway the along events death. The models are fitted longitudinal data andusing variation capture therefore across individuals’ pathways to death. We quantify how pathways ageing individual transitions the particular (in over time from healthy states This means that it should be possible topredict the individual that an likelihood particularfollows a morbidity mortalityand pathway given sufficient information about historical experiencetheir current health.and develop methodologiesWe extendingfor longevity risk morbidity, include models to and for modelling pathways

cardiovascular diseases later ages. at diabetes and and total cholesterol total atand are ages old and middle related to risks of death cancer, onset of and characteristics blood of mass body glucose, index, pulse pressure, pulse rate health measurementshealth are associated with morbidity mortalityand For risks. dynamicexample, vary across individuals; dynamic however, characteristics certain of experience trajectories, or pathways of changes in health from retirement to significantly Pathways death. Longitudinal data on healthLongitudinal data on longevityand describe individual morbidity where contractwhere payments events ill-health on depend as well as mortality. from retirement to death. particularly is This important products, financial suchfor as long-term care insurance, is necessary to predict an individual’s morbidity period the experience over MICHAEL SHERRIS SHERRIS MICHAEL In order to design effective care products, itlong-term RESEARCHERS MEYRICKE RAMONA ALAI DANIEL AGEING PATHWAYS (MORBIDITY AND MORTALITYAGEING PATHWAYS TRAJECTORIES) USING LONGITUDINAL DATA MULTI-STATE MARKOV MODELSINDIVIDUAL FOR MULTI-STATE

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provide important pricing the input to valuationand of carelong-term (LTC) insurance covers Health status Health transition models migration the mapping of elderly the between health statuses international journals. international This project will continue in 2013 and is expected of number a produce to papers forworking leading to submission

Journal and the and

Joelle’s research interests interests research Joelle’s economics of the include retirement; and pensions insurance;private public and risk and annuities; morbidity of management and longevity. research Her has been published in the of Risk and InsuranceJournal of Pensionand Economics Finance. she also several held positionsshe Civil Service. Singaporean the in need care? Third, how do recoveries from functional disabilities differ age by do sex? example, and For to individuals tend younger exhibit higher rates of recovery? Information on benefit triggers, premiums, benefits, elimination and insurance from LTC periods policies in the US were collated enable to extensions these of models to LTC policy pricing. The project will also be expanded to allow for more than one stateof disability, as well as incorporate uncertainty rates. transition in Second, what is the probability able that an 70-year or old 60-year old will ever become functionally and disabled

Management fromManagement the Wharton the of School University Pennsylvania. of holds mastersShe degrees from Wharton Singapore and UniversityManagement (SMU), and is currently an affiliate researcher with SMU’s Sim Kee InstituteBoon Financial for to Prior Economics. PhD, her commencing She joined CEPAR in August after2011 graduating with a PhD in Insurance and Risk transition intensities using methodsgraduation adapted from the Society of Actuaries LTC Valuation Methods Task Force. estimatedParameters are by maximum under likelihood approaches.both Fitted transition probabilities are contrasted,compared and also evaluated againstand population sources available.where approach providesThis several typesanswers to of questions. First, within the versatile framework, GLM modelling predictorwhich structure provides the best fit to morbidity and mortality transitions for sample? given the intensities: disability onset, mortality healthy among lives, mortality among recovery. lives,disabled and re-compute then We

age-specific and sex- and age-specific specific transition JOELLE FONG DR H WhartonPhD School, University Pennsylvaniaof RESEARCH FELLOW Joelle Fong is a CEPAR Fellow locatedResearch in Australianthe of School University the Business at of New South Wales. process explore setup and two different to techniques modelling transitions across health states. We feature to approach an mainly graduation based on generalised models linear (GLM) which has been proposed analysing for thesickness in inception literature. Models are fitted longitudinal data from theto Retirement and Health US Study to derive four sets of policymakers concerned about forecasting future utilisation care health costs.and This project examines multi-state actuarial models for health status and the application models such of insurance pricing LTC to product development.and standard a adopt We Markov time-continuous

individuals today livingindividualsmuch today understanding of an longer, functional impairments in late life is also germane to the pricing and valuation and pricing the of long-term care (LTC) With covers. insurance transition models mapping the migration of the elderly between statuses health importantprovide to input individuals may becomeindividuals may physically cognitively or status Health disabled. capacity support need and in many facets of living over a prolonged period of time. At some point, some As individuals age, they individualsAs age, suffer from a reduced functional of degree JOELLE FONG H SHAO WENQIANG ADAM (CEPAR PHD STUDENT) RESEARCHERS SHERRIS MICHAEL PIGGOTTJOHN FOR HEALTH STATUS WITH APPLICATIONS APPLICATIONS WITH STATUS HEALTH FOR CARE LONG-TERM TO MULTI-STATE ACTUARIAL MODELS MODELS ACTUARIAL MULTI-STATE

mortality health and mortality data mortality the populationthe differentials in for quantifying using populationusing a stochastica model This project develops

Symposium at Monash University December 7 on 2012. The results will be written up in a working submission journal for paper in early 2013. This research project was completed in 2012 and the presentedresults to were Australianthe Actuarial Research and Education

identifiable health is conditions. model The estimated using available Australian data. Sensitivity model and parameter to evaluated. is assumptions The implications of the model are assessed in an annuityapplication to method is A pricing. presented extending for the model if more detailed data becomes available. This project develops a for stochastic model quantifying mortality differentials the in populationpopulation using mortality and health data. It incorporates a stochastic transitionfactor into probabilities of a subordinated Markov ageing model where the states in the model are linked to

to reflectto heterogeneity. aggregate population data gender, and age only use and and in the case of life status, smoking insurance, modelling needs to take into account. Most mortality models are based on Population heterogeneity stochasticand aggregate mortality important rates are issues that mortality socioeconomic quintile socioeconomic lost 35% more years of life than the first quintile). mortality, disability, impairment, illness and injury as lost years of healthy life. (The fifth Health and Welfare (AIHW) Welfare and Health burden undertakenhas a of disease study to measure differentials in found is studies socioeconomic of groups. For example the of Institute Australian probabilities the of individuals the purchasing annuity. Evidence of these mortality especially for life annuity markets, where reflect to needs pricing the expected survival population are significantpopulation are when included factors be to quantifying of impact the Health and mortality and Health differentials the in RESEARCHERS SHERRIS MICHAEL ZHOU QIMING STUDENT) HONOURS (CEPAR A SUBORDINATED MARKOV MODEL MODELLING SYSTEMATIC LONGEVITY AND HEALTH RISK: RISK: HEALTH AND LONGEVITY SYSTEMATIC MODELLING

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76 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 77 assist adequate in reserving pricing and that enhances secure annuity markets This research This provides better a understanding of the risk of underwritten annuities from a provider’s perspective, to

PhD, Ramona worked for worked Ramona PhD, PwC Australia for five years Actuary. Pensions a as She is a Fellow of the Institute Actuaries Australia.of her commencing to Prior (and therefore discounting (and period) for low risk lives relative to high risk lives. have results These important implications risk and pricing the for lifeof management contingent insurance annuities.products and In 2012 this research was presented at the 16th International Congress on MathematicsInsurance and working paperEconomics. A is being prepared for the series paper working CEPAR to submission for and in journal academic an 2013. early Frailty has a lesser impact underwrittenon annuity prices for low risk and of because lives risk average expected longer the lifetime

solvency, capital and solvency, regulatory requirements, methodologies as well as modelling longevityfor risk, mortality.morbidity and interests research Other private coordinating include insurance for public and longevity care, aged and systemic risk and the asset ageing. implications of pricing financial risk management risk financial life plans and pension for managinginsurers, including factors. We find that heterogeneity declines underwritingwhen factors after even used; however are allowing underwriting for factors, there is still significant heterogeneity in the residual mortality risk. has risk residual This implicationsfinancial for annuity show providers. We that heterogeneity to due unobservable factors (or frailty) has a significant actuarial present on impact underwritten of value particularlyannuities, for high risk lives. The annuity ‘healthiest’ the for price lives in high risk categories population the than higher is these for price average categories. This project quantifies project This heterogeneity US in population mortality, before afterand controlling for commonly underwriting used

completion of her PhD in from Economics Financial Universitythe Cambridge. of researchHer focuses on DR RAMONADR MEYRICKE PhD Camb., FIAA RESEARCH FELLOW Ramona Meyricke is a Research Fellow at the UNSW node of CEPAR. Ramona joined CEPAR in March 2012 following underwriting factors to use life-contingentfor products, whether question is open an heterogeneity still is significant after allowing underwritingfor factors. If so, then it is important to assess the financial implications of heterogeneity to and pricing when it allow for underwritten annuities. The resulting high prices being annuities to lead unattractive individuals to health. poor or average in Underwriting addresses this lower providing issue by annuity prices for high risk lives, characterised by underwriting factors as such smoking status and medical history. While much research has addressed which price annuities assuming longevity. above-average products. Insurers are if anti-selection exposed to healthiest the only people buy life annuities, so they undermines the use of age and sex as the only rating factors for life annuity rates is known to exist in populations, mortality as across varies risk individuals. Heterogeneity pricing that enhancespricing annuitysecure markets. Heterogeneity mortality in annuities from a provider’s assistperspective, in to reservingadequate and This research providesa better the understanding of underwritten of risk RESEARCHERS MEYRICKE RAMONA SHERRIS MICHAEL USING LONGITUDINAL DATA INDIVIDUAL MORTALITY MODELLING

longevity The results suggest that are not cost-

bonds or other or bonds

effective beyond a term of 20 years market based risk transfer mechanisms A working paper is being being is paper working A prepared for the CEPAR for series and paper working academic an to submission journal in early 2013. In 2012 this research was presented at the Eighth International Longevity Capital Markets and Risk Solutions Conference.

Therefore insurers should risk in-house consider examplemanagement, for diversifying across cohorts. the correspondingthe reduction in the economicrisk of the insurer. We show that cost-effective hedging strategies are not the same as those that minimise economic risk. decreases risk Economic termmonotonically the as (longevity hedge the of bond or swap) increases. resultsThe suggest that longevity other or bonds transfer basedmarket risk not are mechanisms cost-effective beyond a term of 20 years. The intuition is that market on depends based pricing volatility while SCRs are set best percentage of a as estimate liabilities; and that the high volatility of mortality time long at horizons that means market based prices exceed the benefits they offer in terms solvency of capital relief. term of over 20 years of cost the because theexceeds hedging capital of terms benefit in relief. Finally, we examine

longevity with a bonds strategies on the provider’s provider’s strategies the on probability default. of We perform a cost benefit analysis of the cost of longevityhedging risk versus the capital relief from Solvency under II. hedging We define a cost-effective that costs hedge a as hedge less than the value of the capital generates. relief it We show that inmany cases it is not cost-effective for an insurer to purchase of buying a longevity buying a of bond benefit the fromand holding it in terms of reduced SCR. We model the cash flows capital reservesand an of with and annuity provider, without using hedging longevity find We bonds. strategy hedging the that minimises the provider’s cost plus capital of cost of hedging. Finally, we quantify of impact the different hedging cost-effective under the frameworkSolvency and II cost-effective how also hedging strategies differ from risk-reducing hedging strategies. We investigate the cost of different hedging strategies longevityusing bonds. contributiona major The is quantifyframework to the trade-off between cost the

hedging strategies are significant change in the significant in change SCRs for EU insurers. It is unclear, at present, which willingness to pay for insurance risk of hedging longevity as (such risk). representsSolvency a II risk by either hedging or hedging either by risk way, this In reinsurance. SCRs affect life insurers’ percentage of regulatory percentage of measures of risk. An insurer decreasecan regulatory measures longevity of requirements. Mostrequirements. Solvency Capital Requirements (SCRs) are calculated as a A major incentive for annuity longevity use providers to derivatives is to reduce regulatory their capital longevity derivatives or costs benefitsthe and of their use. derivatives. Far less is annuityknown about how providers are likely to use solution. significant A amount of research has explored design the longevity of pricing and providers to financialproviders to markets. Securitisation longevityof one is risk There is increasing demand increasing There is products that transferfor longevity from risk annuity RESEARCHERS MEYRICKE RAMONA SHERRIS MICHAEL LONGEVITY VIA RISK SECURITISATION SYSTEMIC RISK AND OF THEHEDGING

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suggesting annuity rates lower should be for purchases of but value, higher opposite the find we to be true Larger annuity likely are purchases richer by made be to healthierand individuals who will live longer,

the capital reservesthe for systematic longevity risk. He is also interested in retirement choices. incorporatesThis optimal life- in making decision cycle models as well as describing, understanding improving choices and related individual the to retirement decision. longevity portfolio a in risk pension lifeof and insurance calculatingproducts and a planned research planned a collaboration between Netspar. and CEPAR The project fits within the thrustbroader research of benefit being on design undertaken with CEPAR, and is a building block for

focused on the Network Pensions, Studiesfor on Retirement and Aging, Living theme: (Netspar) Health. Good in Longer He is also a Netspar Fellow. current researchHis focuses on the effects of systematic longevity annuities. on risk and includes managing This measuring systematic He holds a PhD degree from CentER, Tilburg University was research his where appears to be greater than greater be appearsto suggesting that either one, companies insurance Dutch feel confident that they can earn higher rates of return or government bonds on than that they are selling annuities at a loss. According to the theory of adverse selection, worth be should money’s yet advanced at ages, lower we find the money’s worth for a 65 year old to be typically lowercent per a lesshalf than Larger old. year 60 a for than annuity purchases are likely to be made by richer and individuals whohealthier suggesting livewill longer, annuity be rates should lower for purchases of higher value, but we find true. be opposite to the Our money’s worth money’s Our that suggest calculations Dutch annuities are fairly priced. By the end of the worth money’s the period

School of Risk and Actuarial and Risk of School Studies, Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales. to unity by the end of period. the DR RALPH STEVENS BSc MSc MPhil PhD Tilburg University RESEARCH FELLOW SENIOR Ralph Stevens joined the UNSW CEPAR node in July 2012 as a Senior Research Fellow. Previously the held he position of Lecturer at the explained entirely by changes in yields and life expectancy. We show that annuitants their increased have could annuity income by about 5% and around shopping by annuities their purchasing providers. alternative from worth calculationsMoney’s show that the market is efficient by international standards, with a money’s worth above 0.9 for the close and period whole therefore ideal for examining examining therefore for ideal annuity markets in which adverse selection is relatively unimportant. In this project, we provide the first annuity of analysis rates in the Netherlands for the this During 2001-2010. period annuity of number the period, stable and high providers was and we find that falls in annuity be rates can

the UK to be characterised by compulsory annuitisation. The Dutch framework is In this project we provide the thefirst of analysis empirical Dutch annuity market, one of the few markets other than that where annuities are annuities that where the voluntarily purchased small. be to tends market are introduced and mature. mature. introduced and are are annuities though Even believed to be utility known well is it enhancing, increasing role in pension in role increasing defined- as provision contribution systems pension Annuity the markets around playing an world are EDMUND CANNONEDMUND UNIVERSITY) (BRISTOL IAN TONKS (UNIVERSITY OF BATH) RESEARCHER STEVENS RALPH External collaborators ANNUITY MARKET ANNUITY PRICE EFFICIENCY THE IN DUTCH

While health and labour and health While force attachment tend the together, go to not may relationship be causative, but selective.merely The causes and of consequences labour forcechanges in participation at rates Australia. in ages older Understanding clearly why mature labour force have rates participation recent in rising been years may help devise encourage to policies furtherparticipation, with implications for retirementindividual savings and the government’s fiscal position. The role of later employment. Does extending force labour attachment encourage ageing?healthier • • • •

fashioned to capture potential? this health behaviours?health social of impact The attitudes perceptions on of healthy ageing – do community attitudes inhibit healthy ageing? The role of social networks in cognitive evolution, and the role of community Is care. cognitive decline slowed interaction, social by and if so, what social be should policies The relationshipThe between chronic obesity,disease, health-adverseand lifestyles and socioeconomic measures – for example, to what extent is statussocioeconomic related to adverse • • • • • Projects are grouped around grouped Projects are followingthe issues: • AGEING WELL AGEING PRODUCTIVELY AND

INTER-RELATED FACTORS FACTORS INTER-RELATED HEALTH, ON IMPACTING USE, SERVICE PRODUCTIVITY, AND WELLBEING OUTCOMES. LABOUR FORCE ATTACHMENT. ATTACHMENT. LABOUR FORCE CAN RESEARCH LONGITUDINAL HELP IDENTIFY THE RANGE OF NETWORKS MAINTAINING IN A AND ENGAGEMENT SOCIAL CONNECTIONSENSE OF AMONG OLDER PEOPLE; AND MATURE PREDICTORS CHRONIC OF HEALTH; COGNITIVE DISEASE; THE ROLE OF SOCIAL AMONG THE ISSUES ANALYSED ANALYSED ISSUES THE AMONG IN THIS STRAND THROUGH 2012 ARE HEALTH FACTORS SUCH ASOBESITY AND OTHER STRAND 4 STRAND

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Research on ageing well and productively examines ways in which health and psycho-social factors influence productive contributions (including workforce participation and care giving) as well as independence, wellbeing, and use of health and community services. It focuses especially on those aspects of decision making and life choices that are important for a longer and more productive life, and tries to relate these to productive ageing. The broad issue is important in the context of demographic change because of the much larger proportion of older people in society.

TO VIEW PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS RELATING TO THIS RESEARCH VISIT CEPAR.EDU.AU RESEARCH PROJECTS

Socioeconomic Determinants of Health and Wellbeing across the Life Course: Australian and English Comparisons 81

Lifestyle Influences on Healthy Ageing and Chronic Disease: Longitudinal Predictors 82

Educational Differences in the Overweight and Obese in the United States 84

The Body Mass-mortality Association in the United States: The Temporal Patterns 85

ACTWell – The Influence of Ageing Attitudes and Expectations on Health Behaviours and Medical Help-seeking 86

National Survey of Attitudes to Cognitive Health and Lifestyle 87

Social Networks and Ageing Project 88

Social Activities and Cognitive Ageing 89

Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project 90

Investigating the Impact of Vitamin D Status on Healthy Ageing 91

Productive Ageing 92

Employment at Older Ages in Australia: Determinants and Trends 93

Investigating Pathways of Health and Community Care Service Use 94

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opportunities and disadvantage over the life course for people making transitions from life later to middle This project … aims to identify the influence of disparities in in our LHH data set to influence the ofexamine local exposures over the life exploringcourse and further implementationresearch on of AFCs in Australia. Building on 2012 co- authored publications with Gong Dr. and McNamara Dr. from NATSEM, we will be spatial variationsanalysing Byles O’Loughlin. and in collaborationin with CEPAR Chief Investigator Kendig Associateand Investigators ;

Journal

on socio-economic on policy and conditions, histories in the two countries. Preliminary findings will be presented in an invited address and plenary symposia the at International Congress2013 Gerontology and on Seoul.Gerontology in A new direction is research Communities Friendly Age on (AFCs) as part of a global network supported the by Organisation. Health World Professors and Kendig Anstey collaborating and policy partners been have invited to write an article on Australian developments for a special issueof the of Ageing and Health. NEXT STAGE During 2013we will be constructing the survey data comparative file, a time series data bank Resilience and Inequalities and in Resilience Later Life (fRaill)” (2011–2016) a chief investigator on the “English Longitudinal ongoing Study of Ageing” (ELSA); and a partner investigator the on DiscoveryARC grant “Socio-economic determinants health and inequalities the over life conducted course” being He is the lead investigator for five interdisciplinary year the research “Frailty, programme

’ for the British Health Inequalities designed to guide local guide to designed policies new on action UK determinants of social on and health. (Kendig Phillipson Chris Professor - CEPAR visitor 2013) Senate the to Submission underwayInquirynow determinants social on (Kendig health of Browning)and Presentation to The Australian Sociological Association National UniversityConference, Queensland, Novemberof 2012: ‘Life Course Influences on Disadvantage among Australian Baby Boomers’ (O’Loughlin). Completed paper ‘Building Age Friendly Cities, Report Academy publication 3 4 2 processes of stratification, stratification, of processes particularly relation to in works ethnicity. He and ageing determinants social of the on wellbeing in health and later inequalities life, social life the over course, and longitudinal surveys of retirement. and health His research focusesHis on issues inequality, social of underlyingjustice and

policy work (Kendig) policy work Presentation to the Australian Academy of Sciences: Social Social Determinants Health of Research Roundtable conceptual the of relatedframework and completed ARC Discovery Project. During 2012 detailed work was planning completed on the comparative data files. Other outcomes include: 1 populations in bothpopulations in countries those including from migrated have who Australia.England to ACHIEVEDOUTCOMES comparisons basedThe are English Longitudinal the on Survey on Ageing (ELSA) and the Australian Life History and Health (LHH) Survey. The LHH data collection was funded by a now on Ageing and Director of the Cathie Marsh Centre for Survey Research. and Census PROFESSOR NAZROO JAMES BSc MB BS Lond., PhD UC Lond. INVESTIGATOR PARTNER James Nazroo is Professor of UniversitySociology the at of also He UK. Manchester, serves as Director of the Manchester Interdisciplinary Collaboration Research for service Comparisons use. between made native be will migrant and born being examined include examined being health, productivity, and pension wellbeing, and and disadvantage the and over life course for people making transitions to from middle later life. Key outcomes and England. It aims to to England. aims It and identify influence the of disparities opportunities in societal and policysocietal and babydevelopments the on cohortsboom between born 1946 and 1950 in Australia This project is comparing the influence national of differences post war in JAMES NAZROOJAMES KATE O’LOUGHLIN VANESSA LOH RESEARCHERS KENDIG HAL BYLES JULIE AND WELLBEING ACROSS THELIFE COURSE: COMPARISONS ENGLISH AND AUSTRALIAN SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OFHEALTH

and Art.

Cochrane Australian , 12, 34. planning for older for planning protocol for a N., Cameron, I. D., , Issue 9. and the and Journal of Aging and Geriatrics community. community. serves on the executive of the ZealandAustralian New and Falls Prevention Society and as an invited member of of Federation World the OccupationalTherapists International Advisory on Group Accessibility Participation. and board editorial the on is She of the Occupational Therapy Journal. Party (Falls) and as NHMRC a in member Panel Review Grant currently She 2007. and 2005 Health A further aA and paper co-editedbook are in press. discharge discharge A adults: trial randomised evaluation,economic BMC Gillespie L.D., Robertson Gillespie W.J., M.C., Sherrington C., Gates S., Clemson L.M. and Lamb S.E. (2012), Interventions preventing for falls in older people living in the Database of SystematicReviews CD007146. No: Wales, K., Clemson, L., Lannin, Salkeld, G., Gitlin, L. and Davies, C. (2012), Occupational therapy

g British Medical Journal home. This Westmead Home currently assessment, Safety standard, gold is a considered universities numerous by used settings clinical and nationally internationally.and Lindy served on the Board of IndependentDirectors the of Living Centre for ten years up to 2008, has served on the NSW DevelopmentPolicy Workin practice. She developedpractice. She the first assessment procedure for identifying fall hazards in the round in 2011 and death 2012. through records publicationsRelated include: 2012 in appearing Clemson, L., Fiatarone Singh, M., Bundy, A., Cumming, R. G., Manollaras, O’Loughlin, K., & Black,P., D. (2012), balance of and Integration strength training into daily life activity to reduce rate of falls in older people (the LiFE parallel Randomised study): trial, e4547. 345, OUTCOMES ACHIEVEDOUTCOMES During 2012 CEPAR contributed the updating to MELSHAdata file to include the latest data interview

lifestyle influences lifestyle influences well; ageing on trajectories of health and and age; old in wellbeing disability and health transition for points targeted interventions. • • • has developed assessmentshas and related healthy ageing to investigated participation and ways to translate research practice. into Lindy has more than 40 publications,peer-reviewed with over half on falls produced has prevention, and several practical manuals frameworksproviding for the efficacy of fall prevention interventions, including Stepping On and LiFE, and ageing interventions and ageing services. It aims to identify: • • • This research will inform development newthe of healthy ageing initiatives positive enhance healthto and care, self and actions serviceimprove models people. older for This project examines predictors andthe consequences ageing of well as key factors that can be addressed in healthy

esearch Unit at the University R of Sydney and an NHMRC Career Development Research Fellow. She has conducted trials to test PROFESSOR CLEMSON LINDY Dip (OT) NSW College of Sc App Occupational B Therapy; (OT) WAIT, MAppSc (OT) PhD Syd. INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Lindy Clemson is a Professor Occupational and Ageing in Therapy. She is the Joint Head of the Ageing, Work & Health received funding from the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, the NHMRC and ARC. In this project, funded contributionwith a from the Community Medibank Fund, we are using the MELSHA dataset to examine ageing well in order to inform developmentthe of interventions services and to optimise ageing well. However, in order to better to order in However, understand predictors the consequencesand of ageing well, we need to examine longitudinal data. MelbourneThe Longitudinal HealthyStudies Ageing on has (MELSHA) program gathered data since 1994 on the health of older people living in the community. MELSHA has

including physical and social physical and including activity, healthy eating and positive central to are outcomes people. older for dependence, in order to to order in dependence, optimise outcomes in later lifestyles, Healthy life. for older people to manage to people older for negativethe correlates of ageing, such as chronic illnesses, disability and and hence improvable. hence and approaches well Ageing potential the recognise are amenable to a range a to amenable are bio-psycho-socialof influences, with many of changeable being them ageing, a new generation of generation new a ageing, research demonstrating is that the processes of ageing LINDY CLEMSON LINDY Contrary prevailing to negative attitudes towards RESEARCHERS KENDIG HAL COLETTE BROWNING AGEING AND CHRONIC DISEASE: LONGITUDINAL PREDICTORS LIFESTYLE INFLUENCES ON HEALTHY HEALTHY ON INFLUENCES LIFESTYLE

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positive health actions self and care improve and service models for older people This research This will inform the development of healthynew ageing initiatives enhance to examined in the CEPAR – Crawford Aged Care Policy begun have We Dialogue. use service assess to and wellbeing in late life, particularly years the in death.preceding Browning qualitative a leading is people’s older on component meanings strategies; and Burns (who joins CEPAR in 2013) will lead research predictors wellbeing, of on mentalflourishing, and Kendig and health, on capacities to remain service and independent use. We will pilot research on clients in new forms of Consumer Directed Care. Further MELSHA analyses are underway to inform the implementation of Livingnational Longer, reforms Better Living

of falling differ: an 11 year longitudinal study incident of people”. older events in Further now analyses the on extended MELSHA data set predictors on continue will wellbeing and health of trajectories including stabilityimprovements and as well as deterioration. The roles of physical activity, illness social chronic and connectedness be will their given emphasised importance health for changes will as promotion caregivers’ capacitiesin Analyses wellbeing. and of social isolation will aim to strengthen understanding part as people older of of the national social agenda. inclusion NEXT STAGE In 2013, Clemson, Kendig, will Browning and Mackenzie investigatingbe “Predictors medicalised fallsof fear and

collaboration with research development. program and Browning and Kendig made a made Kendig and Browning National the to submission Agency Health Preventive evidence-based the on opportunities for interventions behalf on people. older of Anstey and Kendig Browning, have also contributed to with consultations CEPAR available about Medibank possibledata and ,

, a

Improving at the IFA in Conference, 20–23 20–23 Conference, 2012. November at the 45th Australasian Association of Gerontology National Promoting Active TheAgeing: Role of Health,Behavioural and Psychosocial Resources Older People Prague in May 2012. The CEPAR symposium, Australian Approaches to National Issues on Local Action: the Quality of Life of Gerontology in collaboration CEPAR. with for a Healthy Futuresymposium organised Australian the by Association of Ageing Well: Evidence • • • • • presented research related research presented included: project this to • provided in Section 4. number Symposia a where of CEPAR investigators The team presented its findings at a number of conferences symposia, and full details of which are elevated risk elevated industrialised found that the

driven period by Previous studies are subject to an cohorts born after the 1950s or 1960s obesity in epidemic some evidence that factors, but there is populations mostly is , 20(4):904-908 (available Yu, (2012). Y. Educational differences in obesity in the United States: A closer look at the trends. Obesity online Oct 13 2011). developed and developing developed and countries. current Her research age, projects include cohort and patternsperiod mortality, mass body and of socio-economic and differences behaviours. risk in Her researchHer interests include mortality,health and the and both in ageing of demography 5

health concern obesity. of She received the 2009 Thomas Award Dorothy S. Populationfrom the Association America of thesis. her for Her doctoral brought thesis Her perspective demographer’s a to bear on the public between education and BMI. BMI. between education and Previous studies found obesitythat the epidemic industrialisedin populations mostly period is driven by factors, but there is some evidence that cohorts born after the 1950s or 1960s are subject to an elevated risk. cohort and Analysing period patterns of the education- association helpBMI would betterto understand the betweenlink education During weight. body and comparing analysis the 2012 cohort and period the completed and was trends in prepared be will paper a 2013 to be submitted for publication.journal My ongoing work extends work My ongoing studythe through period compares the and 2010 versus cohortperiod trends in the association

Obesity, at the Australian the at National University 2009. since spurious trends claimed in research.prior DR YAN YU MA JiaoTong, Shanghai BS Sociology Columbia, Statistics MS Sociology Wisconsin-MadisonPhD RESEARCH FELLOW Yan Yu has been a Research Fellow at the Australian Social and Demographic Institute (ADSRI) Research Examination SurveysExamination (NHANES) and found that negativethe association is mostly stable between however, 2006; and 1971 be to tendency greater the those withobese among collegesome education, college with compared as increased has graduates, not (but women among the Recognising men). among betweendistinction two the college corrected groups the In industrialisedIn populations, less are educated people more likely to be overweight or obese. In a widely cited negative the previous study, education-obesity association was found to have weakened in the United States. In my recent paper published in I analysed data from the Nutrition and Health National

population with at least collegesome education has increased from 12% to 56%. the increase in educational increasethe in attainment. proportion The American adult the of a BMI of 30 and greater is obese) as (considered 34%. Another dramatic change in recent decades is and greater and is therefore is and greater and considered as overweight; and the figure for having implications. In the United States, 68% of the adult population currently has a body mass index (BMI) of 25 developed and developingdeveloped and countries with long-term health and social Excess body mass mass body Excess epidemic reached has proportions both in RESEARCHERS YAN YU MCDONALD PETER OVERWEIGHT AND OBESE IN AUSTRALIA IN OBESE AND OVERWEIGHT STATES UNITED THE AND EDUCATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE THE IN DIFFERENCES EDUCATIONAL

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The finding thatThe finding women and men differ changing the in BMI-mortality association cautions against sweeping statements about secular trends

37(3): Population Mehta, N. K. and Chang. W. V. 2011. association the in declines “Secular mortalitybetween obesity and in the United States,” and Development435-451. Review 6 women differ in the changing BMI-mortality association cautions against sweeping statements secular about trends. My further work aims betterto understand the sources of change and population heterogeneity in the BMI-mortality association. I have completed and have I submitted one paper that explores sex differences in how mortality varies by BMI. The finding that men and

studies. In this project, I use the NHANES data to examine mortality differences across BMI categories in the United States, on focusing across time variations birth cohorts and periods as well as variations across socio-demographic subpopulations. entertaining various scenarios of change in the overweightprevalence of obesity. being Despite and empirical number, small in findings are no less conflicting. recent paper A declines “secular declared association between the in obesity mortality and in the United States.” conclusion, basedThis on the NHANES, differs from two NHANES-based recent other Latest research based on the FHS also found that a exposurelonger aggravates excess obese mortality. The number of studies on trends in the BMI-mortality limited.association is In fact, it is common practice mortalityfor projections to assume no change in BMI-related mortality differences, while

overweight or obese was Framingham the reported in Heart Study (FHS) and Nurses’ Health Study. literature. On the other hand, other literature. the On significant excess mortality moderately the for 35), but highest for the less than underweight (BMI These largely findings 18.5). agree with the existing between 25 and 30), not 30), and between 25 moderately the for higher between and 30 (BMI obese compared with normal between (BMI weight mortality 25), and is 18.5 lower for the overweight (BMI National Health and Nutrition and Health National Examination Surveys (NHANES) found that at the moderate level in elevatesparticular, mortality. much- The thepublicised studies using pulmonary diseases. remains Controversy whether excess fat mass, such as cardiovascular cardiovascular as such diabetes, diseases, cancer, gallbladder diseases, osteoarthritisand Being overweight or obese is associated with a host of diseases non-fatal fatal and Widespreadweight gain has proportionsepidemic to led of excess body mass in the US and elsewhere. RESEARCHER YAN YU ASSOCIATION THE IN UNITED STATES: PATTERNS TEMPORAL THE THE BODY MASS-MORTALITY

well across the lifespanthe implications differently for Findings have to be targeted be to and social policy social and particularly the in context of ageing interventions and suggesting health males females, and education may need submission early in 2013. attitudes remained significantly positive more than the control group. This study is currently being written up into paper a for

with her office. I organised a Early Career ResearcherCEPAR ANU. the at held Workshop presenter with the Working of the workshop, Dr Nilam Ram, collaborative to led prospects with him and his colleagues Pennsylvaniaat State University.’ Commissioner, the Hon. the Commissioner, Susan Ryan, AO, which advisoryresulted in work that will reduce risk, and increase the effective chronic of management diseases common inlate life. In pursuit of that goal, a pilot study was conducted in 2012 that online an examined interventionaimed age- reducing at stereotypes and positiveincreasing age-expectations. the that show Results intervention significantly increased age-attitudes (compared to a control group) in a young to (18 25 Furthermore, sample. years) follow up after four that showed weeks interventionthe group’s promote and encourage and promote positive behaviours health addressingthrough misconceptionscommon age-attitudes poor and

these attitudes affect ageing and health outcomes at an society and individual level. ‘My involvement with CEPAR in 2012 provided me with unique opportunities further to my establish collaborativecareer, partnerships, my enhance and research skills. example, For I attended a CEPAR meeting with the Age Discrimination examining stereotypesexamining and attitudes and ageing towards process, how and ageing the females. findings Our demonstrate gender differences influence the in age-attitudesof and expectations performing for activityphysical across have Findings ages. implications suggesting policy social and health interventions education and may need to be targeted differently males and for females, particularly in the context of ageing well across the lifespan. The overarching of this aim project was to provide a basis on which to extend to a larger research primarily will This program. be focused on identifying an effective intervention to which in turn increasedthe sedentary of likelihood contrast, In behaviours. this relationship was for age on dependent

explores psychosocial the predictors positive of and is work Her healthy ageing. focusedprimarily on expectations ageing, of DR KERRY SARGENT-COX BAppPsych (Hons) UC, PhD ANU POSTDOCTORAL FELLOW CEPAR a is Kerry Sargent-Cox Postdoctoral Fellow located at the Centre for Research in Ageing, Health Wellbeing and Australian the at National University. Kerry’s research age-stereotypes and physical activity through expectations ageing of across different ages. An indirect relationship between age-stereotypes sedentaryand behaviours via expectations of ageing was shown to be moderated gender. and age both by For males a consistent across relationship age negative that indicated stereotypes poor to led year old category. old year The majority of the sample were male lived (57.2%), in a house (93.7%) with others (80.9%), alone than rather fully not were and retired (67.2%). A paper from the ACTWell currentlydata is under paper This revision. examines the indirect relationship between

age of (SD= 13.89) 57.5 with the majority of participants (41.6%) being in the 50-64 saw 783 completed questionnaires. age The participantsof from ranged 20-97 years with a mean randomly selectedrandomly people residing in the ACT region. A good return rate of 26% expectations ageing. of a 2011 September In letter was posted to 3000 and medical help-seeking, medical and and to examine how affectedbehaviours are stereotypesby and that measured current current measured that behaviours,health attitudes health ageing, to The major aim of the ACTWell project was to develop and questionnaire a administer RESEARCHERS SARGENT-COX KERRY ANSTEY KAARIN ATTITUDES AND EXPECTATIONS ON HEALTH HEALTH ON EXPECTATIONS AND ATTITUDES HELP-SEEKING MEDICAL AND BEHAVIOURS ACTWELL THE – INFLUENCE AGEING OF

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We are specifically are We interested in what behaviours people are for theirin engaged cognitive health, whether thosethey think behaviours may help and what benefits they have what ., people younger . . about thesethink behaviours, age the and at which people start behaviours in engaging to protect their cognitive health

cognitive health has not not has health cognitive explored been previously across such a wide age range. It is anticipated that people in their 40s may start thinking about cognition, but that it is not acted upon until the 50s or 60s. Further, it may be peopleexpected that younger issue, this consider not do engage therefore not and do behaviours. protective any in We expect that stereotypes expectations/fearsand about ageing will affect this the in Further, variance. fears,exploration ageing of we may expect that younger people may be more afraid older globally; and ageing of fearful more be may people Alzheimer’s developing of disease/dementia specifically. A pilot survey is currently conducted nationally. being It is largely exploratory, as the issue of protective beliefsbehaviours about and

cognitive health; and investigate what roles stereotypes fears play and at different ages. A national sample of will n=1,400 be random through achieved Loosedigit dialling (RDD). and gender quotas by location be will geographic broadly a achieve to applied representative sample. The project is a national surveytelephone beliefs of cognitiveabout health of number a spanning different age groups (20s to 80s). It aims to collect data from each of seven age groups (e.g., 20 - 29 years old to 80 - 89 years old); groupscompare these age in terms of their behaviours beliefs about, and regarding,

and behaviours.and aims to investigate what roles stereotypes and fears play in these beliefs and the age at which people behavioursstart in engaging to protect their cognitive survey our Finally, health. interested finding in out think people what younger theseabout behaviours, they think those behaviours may help and what benefits as Additionally, have. they a novel approach, we’re behaviours people are behaviours people their for in engaged cognitive health, whether cognitive health lifestyles health cognitive across different groups. age specifically are We interested in what interested finding in out attitudesabout people’s cognitive and health, to JACQUI BREWERJACQUI Survey National Through our project at the ANU, we are RESEARCHERS ANSTEY KAARIN SARGENT-COX KERRY COGNITIVE HEALTH AND LIFESTYLE AND HEALTH COGNITIVE NATIONAL SURVEY OF ATTITUDES TO TO ATTITUDES OF SURVEY NATIONAL

… both the tensions aretensions availability of interpersonal networks and mental health life, better and the absencethe of satisfaction with supportive social related greater to Facebook-users from the Facebook-users employSNAP We sample. snowball sampling to increase sample size maximiseand links between participants. relationship between online life networks real social and individual its on impact and wellbeing. capital and social sample comprises initial The

of collaborativeof studies of Australiaageing in including AustralianThe Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ALSA), PATH Through Life, DYNOPTA, and the Transitions in Later Life (TRAILLs). Study changes relatechanges emotions, to cognition. mental and health, Tim is involved in a number the availability of supportive networks thesocial and interpersonalabsence of tensions are related to greater satisfaction with life, better health.and mental profiles various The identified also highlight heterogeneitythe social of adults.networks older among In addition to the two SNAP survey waves, a third data collection instrument has capture to developed been networking. social online specially-designedA applicationFacebook (AuSON) collects data on the participants’ of structure networks Facebook-friends participants’ the on and wellbeing. capital and social The study also examines the living experience who alone negativeinfrequent exchanges. Examining associations with external variables that both indicates

Research on Ageing, Health, Ageing, Research on and Wellbeing team at the Australian University. National are interests research His psychosocialfocused on aspects development adult of Current projects ageing. and concerned withare changes social place in that take networks behaviour social and in later life, and how these Before commencing atBefore commencing Flinders in 2011, Tim worked as part of the Centre for been undertaken been to examine different profiles of networkssocial among participants in the first SNAP survey. Using variables that represent positive both networksaspects social of (i.e., availability of social experiencessupport) of and negative exchanges, social results to date have of number revealed a different network profiles. These from network range types characterised high by levels of support and negativeinfrequent married to exchanges, individuals with restricted networks, individuals to living experience who alone high levels of negative those and exchanges, members and friends and and members their relationship to being are wellbeing investigated. have analyses Additional

of Psychology,of Flinders University. online social networking social online websites. Patterns online of with familycommunication DR TIM WINDSOR BA PhD UNE INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Associate an Windsor is Tim CEPAR,Investigator with Australian an Researchand FutureCouncil Fellow based at the Flinders Centre for School Studies and Aging relationship between connectednesssocial that show wellbeing and initiatives policy to connectednessimprove be to need wellbeing and targeted at specific groups.demographic Current focuses analysis the as health self-rated on wellbeing outcome. dataThe also include the specific variableson use of the internet and activity with specific family members. These data analysed to being are understand activity social between participants and and members family their friends in relation to social of indicators connectedness and Demographic wellbeing. differences and sex age, by partnership status in the

detailed patterns of social self-rated health. health. self-rated Additionally data include the structuresfamily and participants their and friends, as well as indicators connectedness social of wellbeingand including communication betweencommunication family participants their and between and members, These surveysThese have produced a wealth of data on patterns of face-to- face and other forms of collected in 2010/11 were second a supplemented by wave in March 2012. The aims of SNAP are to social of understand role the networks successful in ageing. Survey data External collaborator (ANU) ACKLAND ROBERT RESEARCHERS HEATHER BOOTH TIM WINDSOR AGEING PROJECTAGEING (SNAP) SOCIAL NETWORKS AND

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in old age, with results varying gender by Ageing well isAgeing strongly associated with preservationthe skills. cognitive of social find We engagement to be one of the main drivers of cognition of missing data for the first two waves of the Survey and Health, Ageing of Europe. Retirement in He has also consulted on the with survey issues micro Hebrew Bank,World the University Jerusalem, and in the Bank of Greece. He participated in the design questionnaire the and of imputationimplemented the consumption. He has also worked on issues related to health including economics, cross-countrythe analysis of persistence the smoking and between in link engaging activitiessocial the and preservation cognitive of age. older in abilities the effectthe unemployment of capital lossesand the during householdGreat Recession on journal publication.journal This project was finalised in were findings the and 2012 written up in CEPAR Working is work The 2012/07. Paper expected to result in a

topics he has worked on include the effect of cognitive abilities, health insurance terrorism fear of coverageand riskyon asset financial investment; analysis of the differences household in portfolio across choices different countries; the interaction between different stockholding; of modes and In his research, he primarily uses micro data surveys of the households. of older Some of being socially active on age. older in cognition Cognitive are abilities measured scores through fluency and numeracy, on recall tests. We address endogeneity socialthe of dataactivities panel through instrumentaland variable methods. We find that social activities important an have positive effect on cognition, by varying results the with positivelyFluency is gender. affected only in females, while numeracy only in recall is males. Finally, affected in both sexes. We also show that social activities, their through effect influence cognition, on positively households’ welfare.economic Specifically, we use micro data from the Survey of and Ageing Health, Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to investigate the impact

Finance at the University of obtained He II. Naples Federico his PhD in Economics at the University Pennsylvania. of on cognition. on CHRISTELIS DIMITRIS DR PennsylvaniaPhD INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Senior Christelis a Dimitris is Directorate the Economist at Research the of General a Central European Bank, and Research Fellow of the Centre and Economics Studiesfor in engaging in social activities social in engaging cognitive is But ability. and this relationship causal? In other words, is this positive association to due the fact that an active social life actually results in the preservation cognitive of skills? Using panel data from countries, European eleven issue and address this we considerabledocument the positive causal impact activities social of as well as enhanced as well as consumption smoothing life-satisfactionand retirement.in importance the Given of cognitive abilities in old researchers many age, their investigated have determinants. One of the findingsmain documented in the literature is the positive association between

correlated with financial literacy with wealth and riskyand portfolio holdings, cognition and economic and cognition performance. instance, For foundcognitive are abilities to be strongly positively age. In fact, there is now a positivewell-documented association between cognition brings is the is brings cognition increased likelihood to betterachieve economic outcomes, even in older significant how impact on well they age. One of the benefitsmany that higher The extent to which older individuals preserve their cognitive skills has a DIMITRIS CHRISTELISDIMITRIS NAPLES OF (UNIVERSITY II) FEDERICO RESEARCHER LORETTI I DOBRESCU External collaborator COGNITIVE AGEING SOCIAL ACTIVITIES AND AND ACTIVITIES SOCIAL

;

; 7(9): e46061. 7(9): ;

care facility PLoS ONE used to identify residential aged CHAMP data was with moving into a in men aged 70 years and over, findings from the CHAMP study, Medical Journal of 395-398. 196: Australia Gndijic D et al. (2012) Polypharmacy cutoff and outcomes: Five or more medications were used to identify older men at risk of different adverse outcomes, Journal of Clinical 989-995. 65: Epidemiology Gnjidic D et al. (2012) Mild cognitive impairment predicts institutionalisation older among population-based cohort A men: study, Prostate-specific antigen levels factorsassociated Litchfield MJ et al. (2012) 7 8 9

8 is not Arthritis Musculoskeletal and MonitoringConditions Advisory member a Group; of the Woolcock Institute of Research AdvisoryMedical Committee; serves and of board editorial the on Osteoporosis International.He is a Life Member of the Australasian Epidemiological Association. He is currently a member of the Australian Institute of National Welfare’s and Health including 39% of men older. and 90 aged take to tend people Older medications. multiple polypharmacyThis can effects adverse have because interactions of between medications. no is there However, generallyaccepted polypharmacy. of definition In CHAMP men, the risk of adverse outcomes started increase they once to were taking five or more medications, suggesting that polypharmacy be number this defined as of medications or more. CHAMP is supported by the NHMRC, CEPAR and the Alzheimer’s and Ageing Research Foundation. PSA testing men. older for recommended Despite this, 48% of CHAMP men had had a PSA test in the previous two years,

fractures. His research on falls has people older prevention in had major impact on policy and important this field.practice in Much of his research brings together biological, psychosocial medical and aspects ageing. of In recent years he has extended his work to the study of ageing Africa. sub-Saharan in He has an international an has He researchreputation his for osteoporosis,on falls and to a nursing home or hostel. or home nursing a to Other factors associated older were with admission disability, physical age, muscle weakness and interaction. social lack of non-English a Being was immigrant speaking reduced with associated admission. of risk Prostate an cancer is important cause of death Unfortunately, men. older in commonly screening used the blood cancer, this test for level of prostate specific cannot (PSA), antigen betweendistinguish aggressive prostate cancers that will very fatal and slowbe cancersgrowing that will cause no harm. more likely to be admitted without men dementia.than cognitiveMild impairment (MCI) was also strongly associated with admission

residential During an an During 7 Sydney and the CentreSydney the for and Research and Education on Ageing (CERA) at Concord Hospital. admission; men with men admission; times six were dementia PROFESSOR CUMMING ROBERT MBBS UNSW, MPH PhD Syd. INVESTIGATOR CHIEF Professor is Robert Cumming Geriatric and Epidemiology of Medicine at the University of Sydney. He shares his time between Public of School the Health at the University of have been published or published been have press. Three papers in are published in 2012 are highlighted here. CHAMP data was used to identify factors associated with moving into a facility. care aged average of 3.4 years of were men 125 follow-up, admitted to a nursing home or hostel. Dementia was the strongest factor risk for Between 2005 and 2007, men 2007, Between and 2005 living over years and 70 aged community the around in SydneyConcord Hospital in were invited to participate in CHAMP. A total of 1705 men recruited. Eightywere per cent of these men were seen two years later and again five year follow-up visits will be completed in early 2013. CHAMP papers nine Twenty

of dementia, falls, dementia, of incontinence and mobility impairment. concerned with frailty, longevity major the and syndromesgeriatric medical (CHAMP) is designed to fill knowledge in about gap the the health of older men. The study is chiefly The ConcordThe Health and Ageing in Men Project LOUISE WAITE WAITE LOUISE (ALL UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY) THOMAS TRAVISON UNIVERSITY)(BOSTON DAVID HANDELSMAN HANDELSMAN DAVID DAVID LE COUTEUR NAGANATHAN VASI MARKUS SEIBEL External collaborators FIONA BLYTH CREASEYHELEN RESEARCHERS ROBERT CUMMING HIRANI VASANT AGEING IN MEN PROJECT MEN IN AGEING CONCORD HEALTH AND

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She has also worked at the and Hygiene of School London Tropical Medicine on a project to the tools for pilot develop and of management prevention and primaryoverweight care. in previously Hirani Vasant worked as a Senior Research Fellow University at College the on focusing London people. older health of recent HSE reports as well as obesity adult the author on reports. NDNS chapter and frailty serum vitamin and D levels in Australian men have years, ≥70 aged acceptedrecently been presentation. oral for In the next two years, the research will programme investigate long-term health outcomes related to vitamin D deficiency such as morbidity and mortality. It will also explore the interrelationships between health factors, nutritional diseases. chronic and Longitudinal research will be conducted to investigate longevity,health and examining conditions such associated and frailty as health outcomes mortality.including Seoul. Two papers, one one papers, Seoul. Two examining the nutritional profileof older men living in Sydney and the other associations between

journals. She has worked on the Health Survey for England (HSE) and the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) in a included role which national development modules,the of with otherliaison organisations, training field staff, as well as primary and secondary data. analysis of She was a co-editor of the She is a lead author for papers of range a published in international peer-reviewed even after adjusting for confounding factors, low 25(OH) D levels were associated with fair, poor very self-rated and poor health; depression; reporting not being able to do activities of daily living muscle(ADL); weakness; balance with difficulties diabetes 2 Type and fasting and (self-reported measurements).blood Work is under way to identify optimal 25(OH)D levels for positive and health functional outcomes. The results of the research will also be presented at the International Association of GeriatricsGerontology and (IAGG) 2013 conference in Identifying exploring and the optimal vitamin D levels for positive healthoutcomes third the of focus the was that show Findings study.

Journal of Gerontology: risk outcomes. primaryrisk Her focused are interests research and epidemiology vitamin D on the impact of vitamin D status Other healthy ageing. on in are interests research population health of field the nutrition,and including disease, obesity, chronic anthropometry as such mental health. and demi-span, Her PhD investigated PhD Her associations between vitamin levels,D obesity health and and 1,25-dihydroxyvitaminand (1,25D). It found that frailty was present in 9.2% of the serum 25D Low sample. levels were 1,25D and associatedindependently with frailty and with four of fivethe components of muscularfrailty (reduced slow strength/weakness, exhaustionwalking speed, and low activity level but not weight loss). This suggests there might be a number of different biological low how mechanisms for vitamin D status might frailty the to contribute resultssyndrome. The were written up and submitted to Medical Sciences. A second study second investigated A associationsthe between frailty components and of frailty with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25D)

Journal of Nutrition, at the Centre for Education Ageing. Research on and DR VASANT HIRANI BSc Leeds, MSc London School of Medicine, Tropical and Hygiene London Dietetics in Diploma Metropolitan University, PhD University College London RESEARCH FELLOW Vasant Hirani is a CEPAR Research Fellow at The University Sydney of working associated with specific specific with associated lifestyle factors including physical activity,low avoidance of sun exposure, obesity,current and smoking aftereven adjustment for confounding factors. These need emphasise the findings to screen and monitor 25(OH) D levels in this group. The was manuscript resulting accepted for publication in the Health and Ageing. sample, physical activity, physical sample, sun exposure, vitamin D cigarettesupplement use, status,smoking alcohol consumption, obesity and health. of measures studyThe the found prevalence ofvitamin D (25(OH)D<50 insufficiency nmol/L) was 43.0%; highest in winter (55.5%) and spring (53.9%). It was also

socioeconomic, lifestylesocioeconomic, and health factors. Covariates socioeconomic age, included blood of season measures, The first study examined associations between vitamin D status and participating Concord the in in Ageing and Health Men Project (CHAMP). consists of three studies investigating the impact of vitamin D status on the men older of healthy ageing (ALL UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY) researchThis program DAVID LE COUTEUR NAGANATHAN VASI WAITE LOUISE MARKUS SEIBEL External collaborators FIONA BLYTH HANDELSMAN DAVID RESEARCHERS HIRANI VASANT ROBERT CUMMING STATUS ON HEALTHY ON AGEING STATUS INVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF VITAMIN D VITAMIN OF IMPACT THE INVESTIGATING

by engagingby in a range of promotes the contributions view that older making valuable often continue do Productive ageing individuals can and social and economic and social productive activities of examining productive longer over engagement time. of periods Overall, most consistent the in engagement of predictor 2010 was engagement in the activitysame activities or in value the highlighting 2002,

engagement in concurrent in engagement relative to activities 2010 in work paid in engagement whilst Interestingly, only. paid in engagement total work was lower in 2010, concurrent engagement in paid work and other activities remained relatively time. stable over pressure ageing on individuals continue to whilst longer working for undertaking activities other a typically had have that withnegative relationship work, paid in engagement this study also plans to extend research on the factors influencing continued retirement and work paid in engagement examiningby factors associated with concurrent paid in engagement activities. other and work two using analysis Initial waves (2002 and 2010) of data for 1,372 individuals in early boomer baby the cohort (aged 55–64 in 2010), female,suggest that being health condition, a having education, being higher partnered, being and and work paid in engaged other activities in 2002 all increase the odds of extend these findings by examining transitions over waves several using time of the HILDA Survey. increasing the Given

National ConferenceNational in next The 2012. November phase of this research will course perspective. The data also highlight the competition for potential other and work between paid productive activities, as well as the importance of modifiable factors as such education forhealth and productivity across all Theseages. results were presented at a symposium active promoting ageing on at the 45th Australian Association Gerontology of provide a snapshot view view snapshot a provide in recent engagement of productive activities such as paid work, volunteering, caregiving, and childcare, domestic work, across the life course. The results indicate that the kinds of productivity vary across age consistentgroups, with and age- socially-graded, and norms gender-related the within expectations Australian context and a life and caregiving, the and and determinants and of consequences productive in engagement recentactivities more for cohorts individuals ageing of Australia. in The first phase of this study cross-sectional a involves analysis of Wave 10 (2010) HILDA data for both younger to groups age older and

engagement in productive in engagement activities such as paid work annually since 2001. 2001. since annually The aim of this research is to investigate the extent of continuing Household,continuing Labour Dynamics and Income Survey, (HILDA) Australia in conducted been has which and housework.and This study uses Australian longitudinal data from the volunteering, caregiving, and other informal helpto others such as childcare in a range of productive activities. Productive activities may be paid or include and unpaid, continue making valuable making continue economic and social contributions engaging by and dwindling contributions,and promotesproductive ageing the view that older oftenindividuals and can do view of ageing as a process of declining health, dependencyincreasing Australiansto continue participation productive in activities as they age. negativeCountering the on productive ageing and productive on ageing maintaining productivity supporting and enabling by VANESSA LOH In Australia, there has been policyincreasing attention RESEARCHERS KENDIG HAL KATE O’LOUGHLIN PRODUCTIVE AGEING

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knowledge and skills I have area research this in gained undergraduate my and to postgraduate students. Since I have maintained an populationinterest issues in am I Asia, and Indonesia in collaborate to futurekeen in comparative research looking workforce population and into ageing in the region.’ ‘As a member of the teaching staff in the university, I have also been able to relay the

…changes in composition of Australianthe population are moving directions in that favour higher employment participation in the future I am also involved in a project population applies which methods to projection forecast the impact of the in population ageing future labour productivity across countries. OECD McDonald and Dr Jeromey Dr and McDonald Temple. In addition to the described project above,

‘My involvement with CEPAR has enabled me to develop my the in interests research core education, gender, of area labour and force, the and extend the these into framework population of workforce am and I ageing. currently two working on to related projects research workforce population and ageing with Professor Peter Labour Supply in aGlobalising Economy. older ages at the time of the 2011 Census according to occupational status versus (self-employed sector of employed), employment (government, occupation and private), analysisindustry. This confirms previous observations in made 2006 the to relation Census that employment offpercentages drop rapidly collar blue for ages older at sector public and workers workers but increase the for farmers and self-employed, professionals. now are We publicationconsidering of these results and presentation in appropriate fora. moving directions in that employment higher favour participation in the future. analysis the Finally, employment atexamines

Working in 2009 to work on the ARC project Linkage Late and the SpectreUselessness: of Sustaining in composition the of in Australian population are DR ARIANE UTOMO PhD BAS, BEc (Hons), ANU RESEARCH FELLOW Ariane Utomo is a CEPAR Research Fellow at the and Australian Demographic Research InstituteSocial Australian the at National appointed University. was She state, education, English capacity,language country of birth, partnership status, disability status, and Increases tenure. in housing employment participation almostwere universal across characteristics all observed. also It examines composition the changes in population older at the of ages in relation to the observed trends with the conclusion that changes women. There was little change for men in the proportions age each at but working full-time, increases in the full-time again fraction women, for below the age of 70. examines then analysis The employment changes between two censuses the characteristics various by of capital city/rest including

category years and (55-59 quite Increases were above). substantial below the age of years especially for70 Employment rates increased for 2011 between and 2006 every group sex-age employment age rates by and sex in 2006 and 2011 whether employmentand part-time. or full-time is 550,000 despite increases despite 550,000 employment participationin examinesrates. analysis The aged to 55 and over 2011 and between2006 the Censuses, numbers the around fellemployed by between the 2006 and the and between 2006 the the As Censuses. 2011 cohort aged 50 and over An analysis has been has analysis An completed of changes in agesemployment older at RESEARCHERS MCDONALD PETER ARIANE UTOMO DETERMINANTS AND TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS EMPLOYMENT OLDER AUSTRALIA: AGES IN AT

patterns of use among particular population subgroups according gender, age, to sociodemographic resources, and locationgeographical apply and Develop post-roll for techniques out evaluation of recent policy and health innovations. Undertake analyses to identify major drivers of servicehealth and use factors associated with different levels and 4 3

Linkage Linkage of longitudinal survey health hospitaland separations data Basic descriptive outputs Development of methods and analytical modules • • • other sociodemographic sociodemographic other areafactors, and residenceof Build platforms, capacitiesmethods and for using linked data to examine ways in which the use and impacts of care aged and health services change as older grow people including: • • • Undertake analyses of health care use associated with major illnesseschronic and behaviours, risk health modifying the and effects gender, age, of are to: are 1 2 these services and the differential in changes health outcomes those for who do and do not use them. The aims of this project

individual factorsindividual associated with use of understanding patterns, pathways and costs of care aged and health services age. people as The programwill also develop methods using for longitudinal linked and data care health evaluate to programs and innovations addressing at the aimed health care needs of an population. By linkingageing longitudinal survey data with health services data it determine possible to is which the use and impacts care aged and health of services people as change grow older and to provide inform can that information service care health delivery, policy. and planning The emphasis will be on services health of linkage data to population survey data; and on methods to convert these data into information for changes in physical and changes in provide and health mental evidence base for ideal the understanding these and complex multiple, pressing issues. supported program, byThis Leveraging Science NSW the methods developing is Fund, and capacity to use routinely collected services health data to examine ways in

health services use data are essential to identify how specific service health individual relatesusage to contexts. Linkages between longitudinal survey and and residential care residential and settings, variations and economic and social in services to respond changes in health state, interfacesmovements and between community acute, Such improvements in improvements in Such better a require care understanding how of integrating services,integrating and improving distribution access servicesand to on the basis of need. redesigning care for redesigning those with chronic and complex conditions, and increasing demand increasing and on health services. Of particular relevance are the challenges of information to guide and health major monitor reforms anticipating massive population ageing (RESEARCH MANAGER)(RESEARCH Australia urgently requires LYNN FRANCIS LYNN KARLA HEESE ASSISTANT)(RESEARCH CATHERINE CHOJENTA RESEARCHERS BYLES JULIE KENDIG HAL AND COMMUNITY CARE SERVICEUSE INVESTIGATING PATHWAYS OF HEALTH HEALTH OF PATHWAYS INVESTIGATING

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longitudinal studieslongitudinal of contributes She ageing. non- government and to government relating programs research health ageing and to persons. older care for two large collaborative NHMRC grants to combine data from several Australian

for access to linked data Lynn statisticianA (Dr been has Francis) CEPAR a as employed Research Fellow to analysescommence using baseline 45 and Up data data linked and available) (when parties have Working establishedbeen for all projects Applications access for to further data from the ALSWH and 45 underway. are Up and Research Manager has Chojenta) (Catherine help to employed been applicationsprepare to CHeReL and Up and 45 • • • • Julie is the National PresidentNational the is Julie Australian the of Association is Gerontology. She of Australian the co-Director of Longitudinal Study on also is and Health, Women’s the with involved closely NSW 45 and Up Study, a studylongitudinal involving over 250,000 men and women across New South Wales. She is also a lead investigator on • • • fallsprevention of in residential care. •

and Communityand Services Association of NSW and IncorporatedACT NSW Conference.Rural Dubbo. 19–20th 2012. March Ageing. by Inspired AustraliaSouth Gerontology Conference, Adelaide. 2012. September 14 Access to health care for and rural in women older areas. Australianremote Association of AgedGerontology and • • factors associated with mental physical and optimal health of men and women as they age. Her recent work has focussed health on assessment, medications people, older by used sleep disturbance, health effects older for alcohol of nutritionwomen, screening interventions,and health retirement, and and older people, and in in and people, older physical,determining psychological social and • Professor Kendig was an invited speaker at the IFA Australian on Prague in access equal universal and to health care services. Other milestones: •

Her research interests in in interests research Her role of the include ageing health services, preventive in treatments and activities, maintaining quality of life for PROFESSOR JULIE BYLES B Med PhD Newcastle INVESTIGATOR ASSOCIATE Julie Byles is Professor and Director of the Research Health Centre Gender, for and Ageing at the University of Newcastle. OUTCOMES ACHIEVEDOUTCOMES Five papers related to this in published were project 2012, and a further four were accepted publication. for Details can be found in the Research Outputs section report. this of Professor Byles was invited to present the research national/state two at conferences:

to hospital, and to Medicare Pharmaceutical data on health care use. Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH) and the NSW 45 and Up Study, and linking survey data from these studies work are using data from two large longitudinal studies, Australianthe Longitudinal men, and health and hospital and health and men, service use by people aged 85 and in the two years prior to death. These areas of chronic disease such as arthritis health stroke, and care needs of single older The project is currently focussing on a number of drivers of health service use including the impacts of RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING

96 CEPAR THIS YEAR WE Two workshops, one for PhD students around supports the career I am pleased with the focusing on continuous the nation to meet and development of emerging growth in the number of

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • EXPANDED OUR time modelling and optimal exchange ideas. researchers. In September students and ECRs affiliated RESEARCH CAPACITY decisions, and the other 2012, we sponsored an early with the Centre, and look The Centre also provided on applied longitudinal career researcher breakfast forward to further growth BUILDING PROGRAM a range of opportunities data analysis, provided as part of the National as CEPAR continues to for young researchers to TO PROVIDE A specialised training for ECRs Dementia Research Forum. build a critical mass of develop their networks, and higher degree research This event, held in Canberra, students and ECRs with BROADER RANGE OF both nationally and (HDR) students from both provided an opportunity a sound appreciation

RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING OPPORTUNITIES FOR internationally. We hosted CEPAR and the broader for these researchers to of multidisciplinary a number of international OUR EARLY CAREER research community. hear from two eminent research and strong visitors this year, many of speakers, as well as research training, firmly RESEARCHERS These workshops form whom were ECRs invited connect with their peers. linked into CEPAR’s (ECRS). THESE NEW part of a suite of mentoring by CEPAR research fellows industry, government and programs offered by the to work in the Centre. INITIATIVES international networks. Centre aimed at providing In addition, the Centre SIGNIFICANTLY students with opportunities launched two new schemes Peter McDonald STRENGTHENED to develop their networks to assist CEPAR affiliated Deputy Director CEPAR’S PORTFOLIO and benefit from a cross- students and fellows disciplinary perspective. with the costs of travel OF MENTORING Fourth year honours associated with presenting PROGRAMS FOR students were invited to a paper at an international present their research-in- conference or to visit YOUNG RESEARCHERS. progress at the CEPAR an affiliated overseas Honours Workshop and research institute for an the 11th National Emerging extended period of time. Researchers in Ageing Sponsoring events targeted Conference, sponsored exclusively at ECRs is by CEPAR, provided a forum another way in which CEPAR

PROFESSOR PETER MCDONALD for the Scientific Study of he was appointed as a BCom UNSW, PhD ANU, FASSA, AM Population for the years, Member of the Order of DEPUTY DIRECTOR AND 2010–2013 and is a Member Australia. Recently, he has ANU NODE LEADER of the Council of Advisers been appointed as an of Population Europe. inaugural ANU Public Policy Peter McDonald is Professor Fellow. He is a member of the He is frequently consulted of Demography and Director Australian Ministerial Advisory on the issue of population of the Australian Council on Skilled Migration. futures (causes, Demographic and Social He has worked previously at consequences and policies) Research Institute at the Australian Institute of by governments around the the Australian National Family Studies, the World world, especially in Australia, University. He is President Fertility Survey and the Europe and East Asia. In 2008, of the International Union University of Indonesia. 97

to develop a range of skills The workshop attracted INTERNATIONAL NETWORKING CEPAR EARLY CAREER outside the standard 30 ECR and HDR student OPPORTUNITIES

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCHER MENTORING academic experience. participants from across Creating opportunities for AND TRAINING the nation, many of whom EARLY CAREER RESEARCHER young researchers to In 2012 we continued to build WORKSHOPS were supported by CEPAR develop their international our research capability by travel bursaries. networks and communicate 2012 saw the successful recruiting a number of high the results of their research launch of CEPAR’s Early CEPAR Chief Investigator calibre research fellows to the to international peers is also Career Researcher Workshop Michael Sherris delivered a Centre as well as expanding an area in which the Centre program featuring two six session Primer on RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING our team of Associate has invested significant specialised workshops Continuous Time Modelling Investigators. Twenty DR RAMONA MEYRICKE resources. designed to provide and Optimal Decisions at the research fellows are now CEPAR Research Fellow advanced training to UNSW campus commencing An ECR and HDR student funded directly by the Centre; LONGITUDINAL DATA ANALYSIS emerging researchers in in April 2012. The workshop WORKSHOP PARTICIPANT exchange scheme was four of these are supported by population ageing research. included both lectures and initiated in 2012 to provide DECRA-style awards financed Both workshops were offered exercises and was designed career development by the additional $1.25 million ‘This was a great free of charge to young to enhance the skills of ECRs opportunities for our young ARC grant awarded to boost introduction to longitudinal researchers affiliated with as well as PhD students and researchers as well as build the Centre’s research modelling, and I came away the Centre as well as those industry practitioners. collaborative links with capacity-building activities with ideas for modelling and not directly involved with the participating organisations. and another two are funded by Both workshops were analysis that I used in my CEPAR research program. CEPAR also provides the NSW Science Leveraging extremely well received by research during 2012 to funding to PhD students to Fund. ECRs collaborating with In June, the Centre for participants who welcomed model heterogeneity in present their research at Centre personnel but not Research in Ageing, Health the opportunity to expand mortality risk across international conferences. directly funded by the Centre and Wellbeing at ANU hosted their knowledge and skills individuals. It was also a great chance to meet are encouraged to become a five day introduction to as well as network with Our ECRs were also other ECRs and understand involved in the Centre as applied longitudinal data their peers. encouraged to invite their research interests Associate Investigators. analysis. CEPAR supported collaborators to the Centre and applied work.’ In 2012, four of our Associate Dr Nilam Ram, an expert in over the year. In 2012 CEPAR Investigators were ECRs. longitudinal research hosted ten visiting ECRs methodology from from a range of European ECRs are mentored by CEPAR Pennsylvania State and Asian countries (see senior researchers and have University, to lead the page 117 for full details) in opportunities to interact with workshop designed to help 2012. As well as enabling the experts within the three participants develop a development of collaborating universities, our number of skills useful in collaborative research industry and government the study of developmental projects with Centre partners and Centre visitors, or other change-based personnel, these visitors many of whom are processes including also contributed to Centre international leaders in their research conceptualisation, life, participated in a range field. They participate in Centre research design, data of Centre activities and activities such as workshops analysis, results expanded the international and seminars, contribute to interpretation, and the networks of our young the Centre’s working paper presentation and critique researchers. series and have opportunities of empirical research. RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING

CEPAR We contribute to the EMERGING RESEARCHERS IN HIGHER DEGREE development of national AGEING CONFERENCE

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH TRAINING research capacity more The 11th National ERA Thirty one HDR students are generally through our conference, hosted by the currently enrolled under the support for Emerging UQ/ Blue Care Research supervision of CEPAR Researchers in Ageing (ERA), and Practice Development Investigators, working an initiative which aims to Centre, attracted participants on topics aligned with the bring together students from a wide range of Centre’s research agenda. interested in ageing disciplines. The conference RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING Details of their research research and provide them involved over 100 participants DR SEVERINE GAILLE DR RENUKA SANE theses are provided on with opportunities to form and showcased the work of Assistant Professor in Research Economist pages 100 – 106. These networks and undertake almost 50 higher degree Actuarial Science Indira Gandhi Institute of students have the collaborative endeavours. research students, covering a University of Lausanne, Switzerland Development Research opportunity to participate in wide range of issues, including CEPAR VISITOR CEPAR VISITOR For the first time, 16 APRIL - 15 JUNE 2012 a range of Centre activities, 31 JULY - 6 AUGUST 2012 nominations for student the attraction and retention of including conferences and representatives to serve on residential aged care workers; ‘Thanks to the great team workshops and meetings ‘CEPAR provided me with an the ERA Steering Group were barriers to diagnosing working at CEPAR, I could with international visitors. excellent work environment called for in 2012 with the dementia in rural general start many projects. The practice; social determinants while at UNSW, where I CEPAR students are aim of providing research diversity of backgrounds of of older men’s health; falls could interact with other supervised and mentored by students with the the people working at CEPAR prevention in residential aged researchers working on CEPAR Chief and Associate opportunity to increase provides an excellent care; home equity release issues on ageing in Investigators. In 2012 their input into the activities environment to develop products; and retirement Australia, and update my Associate Investigator of ERA. An online election new ideas and innovative and asset allocation in knowledge about the field. Heather Booth was joint is currently underway and solutions. My visit led to Australian households. CEPAR’s support enabled winner of ANU’s College of is expected to result in new collaborations that will me to present my work on Arts and Social Sciences the appointment of three The conference title this definitely have an important voluntary pension Award for Excellence in representatives drawn year was “Making an Impact”. impact on my future career participation by low-income Supervision for her from different sectors Professor Wendy Moyle, development.’ households in India at the ‘outstanding leadership in of the ageing field. Director of the Research Centre Workshop on Emerging building an integrated for Clinical and Community Economies organised by approach and environment Practice Innovation at Griffith the Australian School of that is inclusive of research, University, delivered the Business (ASB) in 2012. teaching methods, keynote address: “Mapping and The feedback I received professional expectations advancing your career from ECR at the conference greatly and opportunities.’ Heather to experienced researcher”. improved the paper and is on the supervisory panel The career development the connections I made at of six of CEPAR’s current theme was continued in one the conference will lay doctoral students. the foundation for further of the two pre-conference collaborations with workshops offered: Building faculty at the ASB.’ a career in ageing: Beyond the PhD. The other workshop focused on issues in mixed methods research. 99

EMERGING RESEARCHERS The standout session a researcher. CEPAR IN AGEING VIRTUAL for 2012 was the joint The session broke all HONOURS STUDENT

SEMINAR SERIES session presented by previous records with ENGAGEMENT ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • The ERA Virtual Seminar Rosemary Huxtable over 70 participants CEPAR HONOURS WORKSHOP Series continues to provide (Deputy Secretary of the from more than 20 nodes The 2012 CEPAR Honours an exceptional opportunity Australian Government across Australia and Workshop provided an for emerging researchers in Department of Health New Zealand. opportunity for fourth year the field of ageing to come and Ageing) and ERA honours students to present together virtually to hear Founder Helen Bartlett. their research-in-progress RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING from leading experts in the The session focused on in a stimulating and ADAM WENQIANG SHAO field and participate in the ageing research supportive environment. CEPAR PhD student, UNSW School of the discussion session. agenda with both CEPAR Research Fellows Risk and Actuarial Studies The topics for 2012 were speakers sharing their 2012 ERA CONFERENCE PARTICIPANT were on hand to provide as follows: insights on the key feedback on a range of successes over the last topics including modelling ‘The ERA conference •• Part time, away from decade and considering survival probabilities and provided me with a great your supervisor or out the challenges for the mortality; longevity risk; opportunity to communicate in the sticks: Some future - from the viewpoint reverse mortgages; and my research with people strategies for of a policymaker and post-retirement portfolios. from a wide range of completing your PhD disciplines. I also gained – Professor Jeni helpful advice from the Warburton (La Trobe workshop after the University) conference, where •• The Ageing research discussions focused on agenda: Where are we building an academic career now? - Rosemary for young researchers.’ Huxtable (Department of Health and Ageing) and Professor Helen Bartlett (Monash University) •• Data linkage: Opportunities for Ageing researchers – Professor Louisa Jorm (University of Western Sydney)

CEPAR STUDENTS JUN FENG AND ADAM WENQIANG SHAO AT ERA 2012. RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING

100 CEPAR PHD STUDENTS LOCATED AT CRAIG BLACKBURN JUN (JIMMY) FENG SIMON MAN CHUNG FUNG THE AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL OF BCom (Hons) UNSW, MAct (Hons) MPhil UNSW BSc (Hons) ANU

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • UNSW, MEng(R), JCU, BEng (Hons) QUT BUSINESS, UNSW SUPERVISOR SUPERVISOR SUPERVISOR A/Professor Hazel Bateman Professor Michael Sherris Professor Michael Sherris NATALIA ARANCO CO-SUPERVISOR CO-SUPERVISOR MEc Universidad de Montevideo CO-SUPERVISOR Dr Shiko Maruyama Dr Katja Ignatieva A/Professor John Evans SUPERVISORS Professor John Piggott Saving for retirement: Pricing and risk management Professor Michael Sherris Longevity risk management An investigation on of long-term contracts in and securitisation in an contributions to finance and insurance RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING Assessing the evolution of affine mortality superannuation in Australia SHANG WU the educational-mortality modelling framework Superannuation products BBus (Hons) student, UTS gap among countries Financial security is of are expected to play a Business School Longevity risk for an insurer critical importance to the significant role in addressing 2012 CEPAR HONOURS WORKSHOP This research analyses affects their regulatory quality of life for retirees. the needs of a rising number PARTICIPANT the link between health capital requirements. Australians are better of retirees. These products and education from a Ideally, an insurer would off thanks to the are of a very long-term ‘The workshop helped me macroeconomic perspective. like to transfer some of superannuation system nature and insurers who refine my research thesis. Taking countries as the unit this risk to capital markets. formally established in offer them are often I gained new insights of analysis, it addresses the This research presents an the 1990s. Superannuation subject to financial and from the face-to-face relationship between the affine mortality model has become one of the demographic risks. discussions and received two variables depending on that is calibrated and will main sources of income for An example is the variable feedback similar to a referee the particularities of each forecast multiple cohorts retirees. Yet there is little annuity which is popular in report. Given my relative country and across time. from population mortality known about the dynamics the US, Europe inexperience, the workshop Using state-of-the-art rates. The model has in superannuation saving and Japan. A major was an invaluable source macro panel estimation multiple factors and an behaviours. component of the thesis of advice and information.’ techniques, it is shown that explicit longevity price of deals with the pricing and This thesis aims to fill the relationship varies with risk process embedded in risk management of this gap by exploring three the level of development of a the framework. We use so-called guaranteed STUDENT THESES areas: the characteristics country: some basic level of this framework to value, lifetime withdrawal CEPAR affiliated students of individuals who make development is needed in in a multi-period model, benefits embedded in work under the supervision of voluntary contributions order to make the link work, an insurer’s annuity variable annuities. Due to CEPAR Investigators on topics to superannuation to but once this level is passed, business written on multiple the complex options-like aligned with the Centre’s boost their savings; the the link becomes weaker as cohorts subject to Solvency payout structure, financial research agenda. effectiveness of tax the level of development II capital requirements. In theory is required to increases. The link also incentives introduced by the In addition to the 31 HDR this framework, the insurer adequately analyse the decreases with time, Government on the choice students and three may purchase a longevity guarantee. The thesis providing some evidence of of making salary sacrifice honours students enrolled in swap, survivor bond or studies the risks underlying the existence of decreasing contributions into 2012, two CEPAR affiliated bond options to hedge the guarantee, with an marginal returns in the superannuation; and the students graduated in longevity risk. emphasis on longevity risk. impact of both variables. extent to which compulsory 2012: Henry Hongbo Jin in the employee contributions Australian Business School at represent new savings. UNSW and Martin Snoke in the Faculty of Health Sciences at the University of Sydney. 101

NATALIA GARABATO ADAM WENQIANG SHAO MPHIL STUDENT LOCATED AT HONOURS STUDENTS LOCATED ANDY WONG CEPAR BA Economics (Hons), University BEc (Hons) Beijing International THE AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL OF AT THE AUSTRALIAN SCHOOL SUPERVISOR of the Republic, Montevideo Studies University BUSINESS, UNSW OF BUSINESS, UNSW Professor Michael Sherris ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • SUPERVISORS SUPERVISOR Professor John Piggott Professor Michael Sherris AISHWARYA BAKSHI DANIEL WANHEE CHO Natural hedging of mortality Professor Denzil Fiebig CO-SUPERVISOR Dr Katja Hanewald MS VIT University, Vellore BSc Actuarial Science, risk using annuities and London School of Economics Financial literacy and SUPERVISOR life insurance Professor Pradeep Ray SUPERVISOR pension valuation in Chile Pricing models and CO-SUPERVISOR Professor Michael Sherris Natural hedging involves risk management of Our research studies financial Srikumar Venugopal CO-SUPERVISOR managing longevity risk reverse mortgages Dr Katja Hanewald RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING literacy and retirement exposure of a life insurer planning in Chile; a country This thesis focuses on Managing policy deviations through portfolio Modelling cross-over risk where the relevance of pricing and risk management in collaborative aged care composition. Life insurers of equity release products retirement planning and issues in reverse mortgages environments are able to diversify and its implications for financial education is allowing for individual house longevity risk through This thesis looks at risk management selling a combination of possibly greater than in other price risk and demographic developing methods and annuities and life insurance. economies considering its changes. It first develops techniques to handle policy The thesis consists of two This research examines the combination of a rapidly models to quantify deviations in computer projects designed to deliver various factors which affect ageing population with a idiosyncratic house price supported cooperative insights on risks embedded natural hedging for a life reliance on a mature DC risk. The thesis then applies aged care environments, by in equity release products insurer and guides a life pension system whose multi-state models to quantifying such deviations and provide benchmarks on insurer in terms of the outcomes rest heavily on incorporate repayment using Policy Ranking and how risk management policies it should sell and individual choice. triggers and explores Context Awareness. Policy practice should be risk-based capital issues approached. the resulting risk exposure. We find that very few Ranking lets the system taking into account house Factors found to affect Chileans are planning for recognise the significance The working paper price risk, longevity risk, natural hedging are the their retirement and that the of given policies under a “Developing equity release and interest rate risk. relative pricing of policies levels of financial literacy given context, while markets: Risk analysis for A paper comparing and the policy types the life are remarkably low as only context awareness allows reverse mortgage and home alternative house price insurer sells. This research 18 percent of the population the system to recognise reversion”, presented at models is currently being will be written up as a understand compound situations and detect the Longevity 8 conference, finalised. Another paper on paper in 2013. interest and only 47 percent possible deviations compares relative risks of applications of individual the concept of inflation. from policies. different equity release house price models to QIMING ZHOU Our research also contributes offerings in the market. reverse mortgages was The last 12 months involved SUPERVISOR to the growing literature on the The second project Professor Michael Sherris presented at the 2012 narrowing down the relationship between financial “Risk management and ERA conference. research topic and literacy and retirement conducting a systematic payout design of reverse A subordinated Markov planning and suggests that literature review on policy mortgages” takes a closer Model for Australian investments in financial deviations which showed look at the impact of health and mortality education could have a different loan payout the relevance of the The project involves the substantial impact on the way structures on the financial problem. The next six development of a stochastic people think about retirement position of the reverse months will involve mortality model that and therefore in their ability mortgage provider. developing the solution incorporates heterogeneity. to reach retirement with and evaluating it through It aims to improve mortality adequate resources. simulations. RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING

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CEPAR modelling using existing DIMITY CRISP Characteristics of those older prone to the internalisation among the elderly. aggregate health and MSc Research UC adults likely to adapt best to of negative age stereotypes. The proposed study was

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • mortality data. The model SUPERVISOR living in a retirement village A mixed methodology designed to examine has been constructed and Professor Kaarin Anstey included contextual factors designed project is being the impact of long-term calibrated with Australian associated with the move, carried out incorporating medical treatments for data. The research findings Transitions in later life: physical health, personality both qualitative and chronic diseases such as are being written up as a The impact of residential characteristics and perceived quantitative aspects in diabetes, hypertension, CEPAR Working Paper. relocation on wellbeing control. Each contributed order to investigate which hypercholesterolemia, and This thesis is investigating to adjustment. In addition, cultural and contextual depression on cognitive

RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING PHD STUDENTS LOCATED AT THE CENTRE FOR RESEARCH the experience of relocating findings from an investigation aspects contribute to function and structural ON AGEING, HEALTH AND to a retirement village. of the characteristics of one’s self-identity as one changes in the brain. WELLBEING, ANU The study employs a those individuals who would ages in Australia and in This study is using data prospective longitudinal consider relocation to a the Philippines. Preliminary from two large longitudinal CAROLINE BRODRICK design to examine the retirement village in the results from focus group cohorts: the PATH through BSc Psychology (Hons) ANU adaptation of 83 older future and the factors that data in both countries Life Project, and the AusDiab SUPERVISOR Australians (aged 57 to 90 encourage and discourage shows that older people in study. The data analysis for Professor Kaarin Anstey years) to independent living people from considering collectivist cultures rely on the first part of this project, units within a retirement relocation to a retirement a more cohesive frame of “Exploring the link between Exploring the relationship village over a 12 month period. village have been published in reference for the social role diabetic medication with between affect and cognitive The study has obtained two papers for the Australasian of an older person than cognition and structural impairment/decline self-reported data from Journal on Ageing. older people in Australia do. brain changes,” is already Previous research indicates participants prior to relocating The later phases of the completed for both the PATH depression is a predictor and 1-, 6- and 12-months NATASHA GINNIVAN project will be testing for through Life Project and the of cognitive impairment post-relocation. Changes in BSc (Psych) UNSW, whether there is a buffering AusDiab Study. A manuscript and cognitive disorders. social networks, loneliness, PGDip (Psych) Macq effect of this more socially is being prepared for SUPERVISOR cohesive ageing self in publication. However minimal research subjective wellbeing and life Professor Kaarin Anstey memory performance. has investigated specific engagement are compared CO-SUPERVISOR depressive symptoms, to a sample of community- Dr Kerry Sargent-Cox KIM KIELY particularly negative and dwelling (n=549) residents. PUSHPANI HERATH BLibStudies (Hons) Syd positive affect. This study Self-perceptions of ageing MBBS University of Sri SUPERVISOR The thesis was submitted Jayawardenepura, Professor Kaarin Anstey aims to investigate first, from a cross-cultural for examination in 2012. MSc UTexas, Arlington CO-SUPERVISORS whether positive and perspective: The differential Results obtained from the SUPERVISOR Professor Mary Luszcz negative affect predict impact of socio-cultural Professor Kaarin Anstey Dr Lesley Ross study found that 12-months conversion to Mild Cognitive practices on identity and Dr Denis Gerstorf post-relocation, those who Impairment (MCI) and age-stereotypes Understand the relationship relocated to the village rated Cognitive Disorders and between treatment of The interplay of cognition the environment more Due to differing social second, whether affect common chronic and sensory function positively than their pre-move practices around elder changes with decline in diseases and structural and in late life residence. A reduction in respect in more collectivist cognition. The study will functional changes in brain perceived loneliness and an cultures such as China, Age-related sensory utilise data collected from increase in neighbour social Japan and the Philippines, Dementia and cognitive loss and neurocognitive The Personality and Total networks were then found it is hypothesised in some impairment are becoming impairment are two of the Health Through Life Study. to be the most significant research that older people two of the most important leading drivers of non-fatal benefits to relocation. in these cultures are less neurological disorders disability burden among the 103

oldest-old. Biological and This project aims to identify risk factor change. strength of the association questionnaire completion. CEPAR social explanations have factors that motivate and The results derived so far decreases with increasing Results do not indicate a been given to account for discourage people from from this study provide a age. Similar patterns of relationship between ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • links between these two changing their behaviour detailed picture of the results were found for driving cessation and domains. This thesis reports and lifestyle in order prevalence and high rate of hearing function. Poorer subjective wellbeing. population estimates of to reduce their risk of co-occurrence of modifiable visual acuity appears to However, ex-drivers who sensory impairment in developing dementia. health risk factors in the be associated with lower tend to persistently pursue Australia, explores long- The motivation scale for Australian adult population. likelihood of being employed challenging goals likely term inter-associations dementia risk reduction Identifying those with but only among the early experience poorer between hearing-loss and has been developed and multiple risk factors school leavers. subjective wellbeing. RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING cognitive function, and validated. The relationship will enable targeting of Progress to date includes investigates the role of between components of multi-domain interventions. SARAH WALKER the collection of all data. hearing aids in protecting the scale and intentions BA (Hons) Psychology, ANU Study Three quantitative against hearing-related to change lifestyle and CHWEE CHWEE VON SANDEN SUPERVISOR Professor Kaarin Anstey data collection and cognitive decline. health behaviours has BSc (Hons) ANU CO-SUPERVISORS analysis was conducted Considerable progress also been examined. SUPERVISOR Dr Tim Windsor and completed this year. has been made over the A/Professor Peter Butterworth Dr Jay Brinker The first drafts of Chapter past year, aspects of this LARA MORRIS CO-SUPERVISOR Professor Kaarin Anstey One: Literature Review and research have been BSc (Psych) (Hons), MClinPsych The psychosocial impacts of Chapter Two: Study One – published, presented to SUPERVISOR Health and labour force giving up driving in later life Focus Group were scientific conferences and Professor Kaarin Anstey participation among older completed and sent to interest groups, and a CO-SUPERVISORS This thesis examines Dr Kerry Sargent-Cox Australians: Investigating the supervisory panel chair final draft of the thesis post-driving cessation lived Dr Nicolas Cherbuin the roles of cognitive and for review. Chapter Three: is ready for submission. experiences of volunteers sensory functions aged 65 and above, and the Study Two and Chapter Four: Modifiable risk factors for Study Three were partially SARANG KIM The thesis aims to examine relationship between chronic disease written. Writing has not yet BA Melb, PGDip MA Bond whether declines in driving cessation and begun on the final chapter SUPERVISOR This research explores the cognitive and sensory subjective wellbeing are of the thesis. Professor Kaarin Anstey occurrence of modifiable functions are related to explored. No longer driving CO-SUPERVISORS health risk factors for labour force participation is associated with Dr Kerry Sargent-Cox chronic disease. Utilising increased depressive Dr Nicolas Cherbuin using the Dynamic Analyses data from the Personality to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) symptoms. Little is known and Total Health (PATH) about the underlying Motivations and barriers to dataset. Significant Through Life study, this mechanism for this lifestyle and behavioural cross-sectional thesis will combine relationship. One’s pre- changes for dementia associations were found cross-sectional and and post-cessation risk reduction between older adults’ longitudinal analysis. cognitive, visual and experiences, including Dementia and cognitive The overarching research hearing functions, and adopting cognitive coping decline are often thought of aim is to describe the their employment status. strategies, the focus of as a part of normal ageing. patterns of modifiable risk Participants with poorer this research, may lessen However, recent research factors and their changes cognitive function were the impact of cessation. has identified some risk across time. It will also less likely to be employed Data were collected via factors for dementia, some examine determinants compared to those with focus group discussion, of which are modifiable. and consequences of better function but the interviews, and RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING

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CEPAR PHD STUDENTS LOCATED ALICE FALKINER CUC THU HOANG NERIDA HUNTER M. PILAR LOPEZ AT THE AUSTRALIAN BA (Hons) MSocRes ANU BA Sociology VNU, BA BCom Melb., Licentiate in Psychology Pontificia

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL SUPERVISOR MA Population Studies ANU MGovt & Comm Law ANU Universidad Catolica de Chile, MSocRes ANU RESEARCH INSTITUTE, ANU Professor Peter McDonald SUPERVISOR SUPERVISOR CO-SUPERVISOR A/Professor Heather Booth Professor Peter McDonald SUPERVISORS A/Professor Heather Booth BRIDGET BROWNE Dr Anne Evans CO-SUPERVISORS CO-SUPERVISOR Dr Anthony Hogan Dr Robert Ackland BEc (Macq), FIAA, FIA Dr Iwu Utomo Dr Philip Taylor CO-SUPERVISORS SUPERVISOR Changing caring Dr Tim Windsor A/Professor Heather Booth responsibilities in Looking down and building Professor Hal Kendig CO-SUPERVISORS Australia: the rise of the Modes of aged care in up: Examining population RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING Dr Tim Higgins Vietnam: Adaptation ageing in Australia at the The role of social Professor Michel Sherris sandwich generation to change subnational level connectedness in the As the Australian population process of retirement Long-term Care in Australia: ages, and as Australian Vietnam is experiencing an This study uses census in Australia What place for insurance? women delay childbearing increase in the proportion data to examine population of the population aged 60 ageing and the settlement Retirement is a key area of The Australian Government’s until later in life, more and and over at the same time patterns of older people social and policy research in intention documented in the more Australians are likely as profound social and in Australia. It utilises small the context of population “Living Longer, Living Better: to join the ‘sandwich economic changes. area demographic methods ageing. Although several Aged Care Reform Package” generation’; those faced Co-residence with children to examine variation in the studies have been done in of April 2012 is to increase with caring for children and is the traditional means of pace and magnitude of this area, little is known user payments for Aged Care caring for elderly relatives at support for the elderly. population ageing across about the role that social and introduce caps on care the same time. This research Given the minimal coverage Australia and the stability connectedness plays in costs for all individuals. examines the many different ways in which Australians of state support, families and of these patterns over time. the process of retirement. The aim of this research is to are experiencing increased the elderly are finding ways In 2012 the design of the The first stage of the understand if there is a caring responsibilities, to adapt their traditional study was approved analysis of SNAP data place in Australia for a including those in the mode of care to maintain through the thesis proposal identified differences private, voluntary insurance sandwich generation. intergenerational support, but confirmation process and between retirees and product covering Long-term Primarily focused on data this is not well understood. presented in a public non-retirees in patterns Care. If this is not the case, seminar at the Australian from the Australian Census During 2012, the secondary of social connectedness. is it because there is only a National University. and the Household, Income data of Vietnam (Housing) Regression methods were place for a public and/or and Labour Dynamics in Living Standard Survey used to investigate the compulsory product, or is Australia (HILDA) survey, this (VHLSS 1992-2010) have been association between there no place for an research uses a quantitative analysed to examine living indicators of insurance product of any approach to help close the arrangement patterns of the social connectedness and type? The first component of gap in Australian knowledge elderly over the years and its expected time to retirement. the research is a survey of about people who provide determinants. Five months These results were financial service providers to informal child and elder of fieldwork in Vietnam was presented in the PhD gain their views on the issue, care at the same time. conducted. This involved mid-term seminar in July including assessment of interviewing the elderly living 2012. Longitudinal analysis barriers on both the supply- with their families in rural using the HILDA dataset is and demand-sides. and urban areas; living in currently being undertaken. private nursing homes; and living in state-run homes for the aged. 105

MAHIN RAISSI SAFRINA THRISTIAWATI JIAYING ZHAO PHD STUDENT LOCATED AT PHD STUDENTS LOCATED CEPAR BS MA Tehran BA Econ Indonesia, MA Demography BMed Fudan, MA ANU THE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS IN THE FACULTY OF HEALTH

SUPERVISORS ANU, MA Social Policy Syd. SUPERVISORS AND ECONOMICS, ANU SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Dr Robert Ackland SUPERVISOR Professor Zhongwei Zhao OF SYDNEY A/Professor Heather Booth Professor Terence Hull A/Professor Heather Booth SARAN SARNTISART CO-SUPERVISOR CO-SUPERVISORS BEcon (Hons) Chulalongkorn, JOHANNE ELIZABETH BRADY Dr Lexing Xie A/Professor Heather Booth Transitions in mortality MSc MgtEcon Essex, CIFP Dr Iwu Utomo BA (Hons), UNSW from cardiovascular SUPERVISOR SUPERVISOR Influences in online social disease in Chinese societies: Dr Cagri Kumru Professor Hal Kendig Socio-cultural dimensions networks and successful Trends, patterns, and CO-SUPERVISORS of the gendered wellbeing Dr Kate O’Loughlin RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING ageing in Australia socioeconomic determinants The economic implications of older persons in of non-standard Dr Jennifer Smith-Merry The research project involves Lampung, Indonesia The cardiovascular preferences towards a PhD thesis with the aim of revolution which began in Understanding the meaning Women’s experiences of redistribution, financial understanding the relationship the late 1960s resulted in of living with Parkinson’s ageing are markedly intermediation and taxation between online and off-line the epidemiological disease in an Australian different from men’s. social networks and the transition from ‘the age of Economists have been community setting; from The sex-difference in later wellbeing of older Australians degenerative and man-made studying factors such as the perspective of the life is predominantly a (50+) by examining the diseases’ to ‘the age of religious or in particular person diagnosed and result of enduring mechanisms and processes of delayed degenerative afterlife preferences, and the perspective of their inequalities across the life behaviour transmission in diseases’ (Olshansky & Ault time-inconsistent and partner/carer course, apparent in many social networks. As a 1986). This dissertation self-control preferences areas, including education, This sociological study on component of the Social examines the decline in which affect economic employment, public people living with idiopathic Networks and Ageing Project mortality from decisions. We study these programs for health and Parkinson’s disease (Pd) in (SNAP), a Facebook application cardiovascular disease in preferences in three income security as well as Australia will examine how called Australian Seniors’ Hong Kong, Shanghai and topics; religious giving the national legal system. identity is transformed by Online Networks (AuSON) was Taipei, all of which as a redistribution policy, This study of two ethnic biological, social, cultural developed and released in experienced rapid economic alternative banking and groups, Lampungese and and historical factors October 2012. AuSON collects development under similar economic growth, and Javan-migrants in Lampung over time. Grounded Theory information about participants’ cultural but different social temptation and optimal supports the broad findings methodology, focus groups social networks, their social and political institutions. taxation using an overlapping of the gender and ageing and interviews will be used capital and wellbeing. Their mortality patterns generations model focusing literature. The thesis is to collect qualitative data Many Facebook users who are are compared with those on economic aggregates and based on the intersection from people over 55 who are mainly Australian seniors in other East Asian and social welfare, especially of gender, ageing and diagnosed with idiopathic Pd (50+) or others who are friends Western populations. towards the shift of savings. wellbeing studies and as well as their partner/carer. with them have used AuSON. This thesis argues that not Results constitute policy analyses three key implications that could The objective is to capture This information about only economic development dimensions of the lives of help lessen the burden of the meaning of living with Australian seniors’ social but also institutional older men and women in social security programs Pd from these perspectives. networks combined with the factors played key roles Lampung, i.e. physical in ageing economies. The aim is to add to information about their social in the mortality decline wellbeing, economic The first two papers are knowledge on the support capital and wellbeing will be in the three cities. wellbeing and vulnerability. mostly completed and have that those with Pd need to used to better understand The thesis is expected to been presented at live independently and the role of online and off-line be submitted in 2013. international conferences. maintain their quality of life social networks in successful A third paper is now underway. in an Australian community. ageing in Australia. RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING

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CEPAR KYLIE WALES JACQUELINE WESSON LYNDA WOODWARD PHD STUDENT LOCATED AT THE PHD STUDENT LOCATED AT BAppSc (Occupational Therapy) UWS B AppSc (Occupational Therapy) BSc (Biotech) (Hons) BPhysio N’cle CENTRE FOR EDUCATION AND THE FLINDERS CENTRE FOR

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • SUPERVISOR Cumberland College, MA Macq. SUPERVISOR RESEARCH ON AGEING AGEING STUDIES, FLINDERS Professor Lindy Clemson SUPERVISOR Professor Lindy Clemson UNIVERSITY CO-SUPERVISORS Professor Lindy Clemson ROSILENE WAERN A/Professor Natasha Lannin CO-SUPERVISORS Exploring the perceptions MND Syd. MYDAIR HUNTER Professor Glenn Salkeld Professor Henry Brodaty Dr Simone Reppermund and experiences of older SUPERVISOR Bch Psych (Hons) DipApp Sc (Nsg), people in the “Stepping on Professor Robert Cumming Flinders University Measuring function and SUPERVISOR after hip fracture” program CO-SUPERVISOR cost effectiveness in Evaluating functional Professor Margaret Dr Tim Windsor RESEARCH TRAINING & MENTORING occupational therapy cognition and performance Falls are a major health Allman-Farinelli home discharge planning of everyday tasks in older issue in Australia’s older Prospective memory in the Geometric Framework people with dementia – population. There are a fourth age: Evidence from Best practice guidelines and nutrition in old age the validity, reliability and myriad of injuries that can the ADuLTS Study for occupational therapy usefulness of the Allen’s occur due to a fall, one of discharge planning for older The interrelationship This project examines the model of cognitive disability the most serious being a adults has not been identified between ageing, obesity predictors of prospective hip fracture. This PhD or evaluated for its clinical Assessment for dementia/ and nutrition is not fully memory performance in a candidature proposes to or cost effectiveness. In MCI includes assessment understood. This research sample of positively ageing contribute to the current addition, a lack of information of everyday functioning. will facilitate the oldest-old adults, that is management of falls exists as to how function However, there is a lack of development of nutritional those over the age of 85 prevention in order to should be assessed by objective measurement guidelines of macronutrients years, pairing a week long enhance the lives of older occupational therapists when tools. Occupational therapy for older persons by measurement burst study people. Using qualitative working with older adults. (OT) functional assessments, determining the differences (ADuLTS: ALSA Daily Life Time while commonly used, research methods, it aims between obesity, sarcopenic Sampling Study) of daily To date, information is being have shortcomings. to determine whether older obesity and metabolic stress hormone levels collected on the cost Allen’s Cognitive Disabilities men and women who have syndrome. The work is based (cortisol) with daily-life effectiveness of the NHMRC Model is an OT model offering had a fall-related lower in the Geometric Framework outcomes. Intra-individual funded Occupational Therapy information about cognition limb fracture have differing – a generation state-space variation and inter-individual discharge planning HOME trial. during functional task perceptions and model that deals with differences in prospective A systematic review of performance, as measured experiences regarding eating behaviour and memory in this very old literature has also been by the Large Allen’s Cognitive falling and an exercise nutritional regulation. We cohort are being analysed. conducted to determine Level Screen-5 (LACLS-5). self-management falls have collected nutritional Specific areas of my functional assessment tools The project aims to explore prevention program. and clinical data from 700 research are firstly, the are used by occupational psychometric properties In-depth interviews are men participating in CHAMP coupling of daily stress therapists. 28 assessments of the LACLS-5 with a currently underway. (Concord Health and Ageing processes and prospective tools have been identified. community sample of older in Men Project). Data memory performance which These assessment tools people and examine the collection will continue is nearing completion, and will be evaluated for relationship of performance into 2013. An abstract has secondly, examining the measurement properties on this tool with other been submitted to the relationship between using the Consensus-based standardised measures International Association prospective memory and standards for the selection of everyday function and of Geriatrics and Gerontology executive functioning. of health measurement cognitive measures. It will Conference to be held in Instruments (COSMIN). also explore OT perceptions Seoul in June 2013. of clinical utility of the tool. CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 107

EXTERNAL LINKAGES 3 SECTION INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS

108 CEPAR THROUGH In addition, many of our Dr Ken Henry, appointed Discussions with our of the ACT Ministerial investigators served on as the Institute’s industry partners focused Advisory Council on Ageing;

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • ENGAGEMENT WITH government panels and Executive Chairman. on a number of key issues. and Hazel Bateman’s THE PUBLIC AND working groups where they With PwC, we explored appointment to the In addition to the Aged Care brought their expertise and longevity risk in a one day Government’s PRIVATE SECTORS Policy Dialogue, two knowledge of the ageing workshop; the influence of Superannuation Roundtable. roundtables initiated by CEPAR SEEKS TO demographic to bear on the presentation arrangements With Aged Care under the CEPAR advanced the issues at hand. We also on choices of retirement spotlight in 2012, Hal Kendig HAVE A FOCUSED dialogue between our engaged with our industry products was one of a briefed Senators, Members

INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS IMPACT ON POLICY researchers and partner organisations, number of areas of interest and their staff on the issue policymakers. Our meeting AND BUSINESS communicating the findings for AMP; and much of our of Aged Care Reform at with the Hon Susan Ryan A0 from our research and discussion with Medibank the invitation of the PRACTICE. IN 2012, and her team enhanced our seeking guidance in the revolved around aged care. Parliamentary Library as CEPAR HOSTED A understanding of the development of our In a workshop hosted by part of its Vital Issues Age Discrimination NUMBER OF EVENTS research program. the Institute of Actuaries Program. (See pages 135-136 Commissioner’s priorities Australia, CEPAR Associate for comprehensive details WHICH PROVIDED In December 2012, a special within her portfolio. And our Investigator, Ermanno of our contributions in one day forum on Aged Care discussions with a wide PLATFORMS FOR Pitacco, spoke on Risk this area.) aimed to light the road range of policymakers at DISCUSSION Rated Health and ahead towards policy reform a one day roundtable in This year we launched our Sickness Insurance. BETWEEN in Australian aged care. Canberra hosted by FaHCSIA Research Brief series which RESEARCHERS, The Aged Care Policy provided an opportunity to Throughout the year our we see as an important Dialogue brought together share our research with and researchers contributed to vehicle for communicating POLICYMAKERS leading Australian and receive valuable feedback the policy debate through to the wider community not AND INDUSTRY international experts, from our end users. their participation in a range only CEPAR research but policymakers, researchers of working groups, advisory also the vast accumulation PRACTITIONERS. As part of ACE2012, CEPAR and commentators to panels and roundtables. of knowledge held by our mounted a forum on the consider current and future Highlights included John investigators. We plan to Implications for Population challenges for this important Piggott’s appointment to the follow our first brief, which Ageing on Australian Fiscal policy area. The Dialogue Advisory Committee for the focused on Mature Labour Policy, with international was the first in a planned Review into Commonwealth Force Participation, with academic and Treasury series of events to be hosted legal barriers to older others through 2013. speakers. We also joined in conjunction with the persons participating in the forces this year with the Professor Michael Sherris Crawford School of Public workforce or other CPS Research Group at Chair, Outreach Policy at The Australian productive work, conducted UNSW to host the 20th Subcommittee National University (ANU). by the Australian Law Reform Annual Colloquium of Our ties with Crawford are Commission; Peter Superannuation strong, with two of our Chief McDonald’s appointment to Researchers, an event Investigators among the the Ministerial Advisory which brings together nine inaugural Public Policy Council on Skilled Migration; academic researchers, Fellows of the newly Hal Kendig’s ongoing industry experts and senior established Institute of membership of the Older public servants to explore Public Policy, and CEPAR Australians Working Group; a range of topics in this Leaders’ Forum member, Kaarin Anstey’s membership important area. 109

an ageing demographic CEPAR FORUM, 41ST Investigator Olivia S. Mitchell CEPAR EVENTS and an increasing desire for AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE from the Wharton School.

AGED CARE POLICY DIALOGUE independent living. Taking OF ECONOMISTS, ACE2012 Phil Gallagher from the ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • With aged care policy on the part in the dialogue were Peter As part of ACE2012, CEPAR Commonwealth Treasury brink of reform, CEPAR in Shergold, Chair of the Aged hosted a special forum on the provided expert commentary collaboration with the Care Reform Implementation Implications for Population on the 2010 Intergenerational Crawford School of Public Council; Mike Woods, Deputy Ageing on Australian Fiscal Report. Alternative policy Policy at ANU gathered Chairman of the Productivity Policy. The session brought responses were canvassed, together Australia’s foremost Commission, who headed up together Australian and as well as the implications INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS experts on aged care reform. the Productivity Commission international experts to for the multiple generations Joining them on 4 December report; and Carolyn Smith, provide a multifaceted whose lives will be lived were the Federal Minister for First Assistant Secretary from perspective on the fiscal out through the transition. Mental Health and Ageing, the Department of Health and implications of demographic John Piggott explored issues Mark Butler, and two Ageing’s Ageing and Aged change, both in such as incentives for older international experts: Care Division. They were Australia and globally. workforce participation, Dr Joshua Weiner from RTI joined by CEPAR Chief The National Academy pension design and longevity International and Dr Investigators Michael of Sciences Committee’s insurance, and life-cycle Jose-Luis Fernandez from the Sherris, Hal Kendig, Kaarin work on fiscal implications investment planning. London School of Economics Anstey and Peter McDonald. of ageing in the US was discussed by CEPAR Partner and Political Science, both CEPAR also arranged for the CEPAR visitors. Also in two international speakers attendance were 160 to meet with Commonwealth academics, policymakers and Treasury officials to discuss representatives from across a range of issues including the aged care sector. alternative funding models The dialogue came in the and ways to deal with the wake of the Government’s long-term fiscal pressures recently announced 10 year associated with aged care; plan to reshape aged care the international experience following the Productivity with long-term care Commission’s Report into the insurance; and finding sector. The report highlighted the right balance some of the challenges between government facing aged care, including and private funding.

Our capacity as governments and policymakers to be able to manage the impacts of a very significant demographic shift will always be made easier when there is evidence based research. In this context, the work of CEPAR is incredibly important.

THE HON MARK BUTLER MP, MINISTER FOR MENTALHEALTH AND AGEING AGED CARE POLICY DIALOGUE INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS

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CEPAR ROUNDTABLE WITH THE On the Commission’s side of well as attitudes and age AGE DISCRIMINATION the table were Susan Ryan, discrimination. Early in

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • COMMISSIONER and her advisors Dimity September John Piggott The Hon Susan Ryan AO, Hodge and Fabienne presented at the Commission Australia’s Age Balsamo. CEPAR Director John conference focused on I am greatly encouraged to Discrimination Piggott was joined by Bob mature labour force see at CEPAR the range and Commissioner, and senior Cumming, Hal Kendig, and participation and depth of research highly members of her team, spent Peter McDonald, along with business growth. relevant to older Australians a morning at a Roundtable Associate Investigator Kate

INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS In addition, Hal Kendig and and my work as Age with researchers at the O’Loughlin and Research colleagues from the Ageing Discrimination Commissioner. UNSW node of CEPAR in Fellow Kerry Sargent-Cox. Work and Health Research August. A three hour The ageing demographic Various areas of common Unit co-hosted a Sydney conversation with several is a top issue for the 21st interest were identified, Ideas lecture by Susan Ryan CEPAR researchers covered including productive ageing in September. The event was century, in Australia and a wide range of topics and attitudes to older well attended by a diverse globally. New, quality - mature labour force cohorts, and analysis group of researchers, research is needed to inform participation and the of the participation of community organisations, barriers to working longer, good policy. CEPAR’s work older workers. aged care providers, the age pension and will establish Australia’s healthcare practitioners, superannuation, age CEPAR is developing an leading position in this and students and alumni discrimination in aged care, on-going relationship with of the University of Sydney. crucial area discrimination implications the Age Discrimination of cognitive decline, the Commissioner’s Office. THE HON SUSAN RYAN A0, AGE coordination of driver’s We are in dialogue about DISCRIMINATION COMMISSIONER licence provisions for older financial competence and people, and the impacts of information concerning exclusion on older men. retirement products, as

PROFESSOR OLIVIA S. MITCHELL She is also the Executive for the Health and Retirement She served on President BA Harvard, Director of the Pension Study at the University Bush’s Commission to MA PhD Wisconsin-Madison Research Council and the of Michigan. Strengthen Social Security PARTNER INVESTIGATOR Boettner Center on Pensions and the US Department of Dr Mitchell’s main areas of and Retirement Research; is a Labor’s ERISA Advisory research and teaching are Dr Olivia S. Mitchell is Fellow of the Wharton Financial Council. She has spoken for international private and public International Foundation Institutions Center and the groups including the World insurance, risk management, of Employee Benefit Plans Leonard Davis Institute; and Economic Forum; the public finance, and Professor, and Professor of sits on the Board of the Penn International Monetary compensation and pensions. Business Economics/Policy Aging Research Center. Fund; the Investment Her extensive publications (25 and Insurance/Risk Company Institute; the White Concurrently Dr Mitchell is books and more than 180 articles) Management, at the Wharton House Conference on Social a Research Associate at the analyse pensions and healthcare School of the University Security and the President’s National Bureau of Economic systems, wealth, health, work, of Pennsylvania. Economic Forum. Research and a Co-Investigator wellbeing, and retirement. 111 CEPAR ROUNDTABLE WITH CEPAR’S participation, and also 20TH ANNUAL COLLOQUIUM discussed the major servants from Treasury and GOVERNMENT PARTNERS health and care. Discussion OF SUPERANNUATION challenges facing Australia’s FaHCSIA. They were joined

on seniors’ workforce RESEARCHERS defined contribution ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • On October 24 we held our first by nine CEPAR presenters, participation included superannuation system: partnership roundtable The CPS Research Group including CEPAR Partner factors that can influence volatility, risk and long-term discussion with Federal at the University of New Investigator Olivia S. Mitchell, workforce participation and performance. Jeremy Cooper Government partners FaHCSIA, South Wales in collaboration from the Wharton School retirement decisions. of Challenger spoke on Treasury and the Department with CEPAR hosted the at the University of Also discussed were the attitudes to retirement, of Health and Ageing. Other 20th Annual Colloquium Pennsylvania. CEPAR implications of the of Superannuation articulating a vision for personnel presented

departments - Veterans INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS demographic shift that lifetime income streams Affairs, Human Services, Researchers in July. research on topics as is occurring, with ‘baby to be an integral part of Finance and Deregulation and The annual Colloquium varied as rural migration boomers’ starting to reach retirement policy. Education, Employment and is an opportunity for in China, the impact of age pension age. The health superannuation and the Government’s Workplace Relations – were The two day annual and care discussion pension experts from superannuation rate also represented. Hosted by conference hosted focussed on social policy around the world to increase, and optimising FaHCSIA, the event provided a international presenters implications of the demand share their research. home equity release forum for CEPAR researchers to from the United Kingdom, for residential and care product designs. present their latest findings In his keynote address, Italy, the United States, services in an ageing society. and receive valuable feedback Australia’s first Minister Japan, China, and New from policymakers from a It was a fruitful day of for Superannuation, Zealand as well as industry range of portfolios. discussions and signified former Senator Nick Sherry, experts and senior public Serena Wilson, Deputy an important step in building Secretary, FaHCSIA, opened a relationship between our the roundtable, speaking research and public policy. about the importance of There was strong support for collaborative work between a similar event in 2013 with government and academia the proposed model being a to grow the evidence base mix of presentations from upon which good public CEPAR and government policy is built, in order to personnel. In addition, CEPAR improve people’s wellbeing researchers have been invited throughout their lives. to submit papers for inclusion in FaHCSIA’s upcoming Social The major themes of the day Policy Research Workshop were seniors’ workforce program in 2013.

The roundtable discussions were very successful and identified priorities and directions for future research that would be useful to the government

SERENA WILSON, DEPUTY SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF FAMILIES, HOUSING, COMMUNITY SERVICES & INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS ASSOCIATE INVESTIGATOR KATJA HANEWALD PRESENTS AT THE LONGEVITY RISK WORKSHOP INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS

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CEPAR on life and health insurance INDUSTRY WORKSHOPS modelling and longevity risk

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • LONGEVITY RISK WORKSHOP management. As well as CEPAR and PwC personnel, Following the success of the workshop also attracted last year’s workshop, PwC participants from APRA, again collaborated with AMP, Challenger, Chantwest, CEPAR to host a workshop for Dimensional, Ernst and industry professionals and Young, the Financial

INDUSTRY & GOVERNMENT LINKS early career researchers. Services Council, Industry The Longevity Risk Super and State Super. Workshop in Modelling Longevity Dynamics for RISK RATED HEALTH AND Superannuation, Pensions SICKNESS INSURANCE and Annuity Business was WORKSHOP presented jointly by two This workshop, hosted by CEPAR Associate the Institute of Actuaries Investigators, Ermanno Australia, featured a Pitacco and Annamaria presentation by Professor Olivieri. Both international Ermanno Pitacco. presenters brought The workshop covered considerable expertise technical aspects of medical to the workshop having expense insurance including PROFESSOR PITACCO PRESENTS A PUBLIC LECTURE. previously presented a range sickness, disability and of continuous professional long-term care, ranging development courses to from the basic actuarial both actuaries and non- structure of the insurance actuaries around the world products to more advanced and published extensively actuarial modelling issues.

PROFESSOR ERMANNO PITACCO degli Attuari (Italy), an affiliate in Economics and Finance, Awards include the 1996 ASSOCIATE INVESTIGATOR member of the Institute of and Insurance Markets and INA Prize for Actuarial Actuaries (UK), and a member Companies: Analyses and Mathematics, from Accademia Ermanno Pitacco is Professor of Groupe Consultatif Actuariel Actuarial Computations. Nazionale dei Lincei and the of Actuarial Mathematics in Europeen. He is Editor of the He serves on a number of 2011 Bob Alting von Geusau the Faculty of Economics, European Actuarial Academy committees of the Memorial Prize, together with University of Trieste and series (Springer) as well as International Actuarial Annamaria Olivieri, for the best academic director of the Co-editor of the European Association (IAA). paper published in the ASTIN Master in Insurance and Risk Actuarial Journal. He is Bulletin on an AFIR related He has taught in continuous Management at the MIB School Associate Editor of the topic. He has published professional development of Management of Trieste. international journals, extensively in life and health courses and master Insurance: Mathematics insurance modelling and He is a an actuary and full programmes for both & Economics, Decisions longevity risk management. member of the Istituto Italiano actuaries and non-actuaries. INTERNATIONAL LINKS

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In 2012, CEPAR focused as developing new distinguished reputations community in a number By organising special CEPAR CEPAR in their fields to early career of ways. They gave sponsored sessions at

on strengthening relationships with ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • established researchers in researchers interested in distinguished lectures, international conferences developing research presented at workshops we provided fora for the collaborative key institutions. programs in the area of and seminars, met with our discussion of particular We hosted a number of partnerships with a population ageing. industry partners and aspects of population international visitors number of international Our visitors contributed to provided expert advice on ageing as well as increased ranging from experts with organisations as well Centre life and the wider the research program. the visibility of the Centre. INTERNATIONAL LINKS

21 14

5 4 6 7 8 16 10 18 24 17 22 11 19 15 25

12 20 23 COLLABORATING UNIVERSITIES 3 1 The University 1 of New South Wales 9 2 Australian National University 2 3 The University of Sydney 13

PARTNER UNIVERSITIES ASSOCIATED UNIVERSITIES 4 School of Social Sciences 9 School of Psychology 13 School of Primary Health Care 17 Research Institute for Policies 21 Ragnar Frisch Centre for University of Manchester Flinders University and Emerging Researchers on Pension and Ageing Economic Research 5 Institute for Ageing and Health 10 Department of Global Health in Ageing Initiative 18 Department of Economics University of Oslo University of Newcastle (UK) and Population (GHP) Monash University St Gallen University 22 Department of Economics 6 School of Economics Harvard University 14 Netspar 19 Centre for Studies in University of Parma University of Nottingham 11 Institute for 15 Research Centre for Ageing Economics and Finance 23 Centre for the Study of Choice 7 Department of Economics Economic Research and Health Services University of Naples University of Technology, Sydney University of Pennsylvania Hitotsubashi University Peking University Federico II 24 Faculty of Economics 8 Wharton School 12 Instituto de Estudos de 16 Gerontology Centre 20 Research Centre for Gender, University of Trieste University of Pennsylvania Saúde Suplementar (IESS) Pennsylvania State Unversity Health and Ageing 25 College of Public Administration The University of Zhejiang University Newcastle (Australia) INTERNATIONAL LINKS

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CEPAR RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, CHINA PEKING UNIVERSITY, CHINA THE RAGNAR FRISCH revision strategy. He also POLICIES ON PENSION AND Our collaborative links CEPAR Associate CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC serves as one of two

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • AGING, JAPAN with Zhejiang University Investigator, Professor RESEARCH, NORWAY international members of A visit from Professor Noriyuki deepened this year with the Colette Browning, was Since its inception, CEPAR the Reference Group on a Takayama in September, development of a proposed appointed Co-director of has had a connection with major pension reform project funded by the Australian Prime research project on Peking University’s new the Frisch Centre. Home to being undertaken at Frisch, Minister’s Education intergenerational solidarity, Research Centre for Ageing some outstanding applied and the visit was timed to Assistance Program for Japan, which will involve the Centre and Health Services as economists, Frisch has allow participation in its laid a firm foundation for of International Social well as an Honorary traditionally had a strong annual meeting. INTERNATIONAL LINKS stronger collaboration Security Studies at the Professor in April 2012. focus on labour force Frisch is also involved in between CEPAR and the Chinese Academy of The new Centre, which participation and labour other mortality-based Project on Intergenerational Social Sciences (CASS). will conduct research that markets, but in recent years research with Michael Equity (PIE) based at the The research will focus on will inform healthy ageing, has focused more heavily Sherris. We anticipate the Research Institute for Policies time and money transfers aged care practice and on pension and retirement relationship will expand as on Pension and Aging (RIPPA) between generations, policy in China, includes issues (with its natural CEPAR evolves. Dr in Japan. PIE, sponsored by implemented through scholars from a number analogue of mature labour Markussen is planning a the Ministry of Education, government policy and of Chinese universities, force participation). return visit in 2014. Japan, was launched in within the family. Led by including Tsinghua Frisch has also spent October 2000, and is now in its a number of international University, Renmin years building detailed NETSPAR, THE NETHERLANDS third stage. Focusing on experts, the project will University, and Peking data sets from Norwegian The most influential group intergenerational issues, the also provide opportunities Union Medical College, as administrative data, and studying pensions and research addresses pensions, for early career researchers. well as researchers from this allows detailed studies retirement in Europe is health care, employment, Joint workshops and a Korea, Japan and the US. of economic behaviour to Netspar. Based in the fertility, child poverty, fiscal conference are also In recognition of her be undertaken. Netherlands, this network deficit, and technological brings together researchers planned. The project will be research contribution Erik Hernaes, who until innovation challenges in the in pension economics and jointly funded by CEPAR and and collaboration with earlier this year was the context of population ageing. finance from across Europe the Australia-China Science Chinese universities and Director of Frisch, has been and beyond. CEPAR and During Professor Takayama’s and Research Fund. institutions, Professor an Associate Investigator Browning was awarded an Netspar are planning a joint visit, a proposal for a jointly Considerable progress in with CEPAR since its honorary doctorate at an project which will be funded conference focusing 2012 was also made in establishment. He and a official ceremony in Beijing structured around a on pre-funded national our established research colleague from Frisch, attended by senior Chinese comparison of the efficacy, pension plans was developed. program on social security Simen Markussen, visited government and university and economic impacts of, The aim of the conference is and pension reform in CEPAR for two months at the officials. She is one of their respective retirement to bring country specialists Zhejiang Province (see beginning of 2012. A project only nine Australians in income systems. The 2011 together with economics, pages 72-73 for details), and initiated during their visit, Health Sciences in the Melbourne Mercer Global finance and insurance experts we hosted a PhD student, on the relationship between past 28 years to receive Pension Index ranked the in the latter part of 2013 to Yang Zhenzhen, from retirement age and this honour. Netherlands and Australian explore the experiences of Zhejiang University’s College mortality, produced a paper systems 1 and 2 in the world, specific countries and of Public Administration to which is currently being and the project was originally regions; analyse common facilitate her research on revised for the Journal of conceived in response to issues; and suggest ways in pensions and insurance. Health Economics. John that. But it has now which the paradigm as a This arrangement is expected Piggott visited Frisch in broadened in its projected whole might be improved. to continue in 2013. November to discuss the scope to encompass 115

comparison of social pension sustainability of the private CEPAR designs, investigation of health insurance industry in decumulation structures Brazil. One of its major ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • with mandatory pre-funded concerns is the long-term pension policy paradigms, effects of population ageing and approaches to on the economy, not only its incorporating aged care direct impact on the health support in pension insurance industry, but also decumulation products. in terms of future budgetary implications for public health INTERNATIONAL LINKS Ralph Stevens, a Senior and pensions. Research Fellow at CEPAR and former Netspar Fellow, Recently, John Piggott visited Hazel Bateman, Michael IESS to present material on Sherris and John Piggott will the Australian approach to spearhead the CEPAR side of documenting demographic the project; Netspar will change, and to discuss how bring Lans Bovenberg and Brazil compares with regard Theo Nijman to the table. to various indicators. The Preliminary work on the outcome is that IESS is now project will begin in 2013, considering how to extend and further support will be the relationship, using CEPAR sought through a Linkage expertise to build awareness IAGG CONFERENCE ON AGEING IN AFRICA. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: MELVYN FREEMAN (SOUTH AFRICA), JOSEPH MUGISHA grant application in late 2013. of the impacts of (UGANDA), ROBERT CUMMING (CEPAR), JOHN BEARD (WHO), THOMAS CLAUSEN (NORWAY), OUSMANE FAYE (SENEGAL) (Partners have already been demographic change in Brazil. identified for this initiative.) While Brazil is younger than Support of the Elderly and INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION Professor Nijman will be INTERNATIONAL Australia at the moment, OF GERIATRICS AND visiting in mid-2013 as a featured presentations demographically speaking, CONFERENCES GERONTOLOGY (IAGG) keynote speaker for the from researchers based in it will age much more rapidly. One of the ways in which we CONFERENCE ON AGEING CEPAR conference, and it is China, Japan, Malaysia and It took Australia 70 years for facilitate global discussion IN AFRICA expected that the project the United Kingdom. Chaired the population proportion of the implications of To support the inaugural will be advanced during his by CEPAR’s Deputy Director, over 65 to double from 7% to population ageing is IAGG Africa Region visit, along with the Linkage Peter McDonald, the session 14%; it is projected that in through the sponsorship Conference on Ageing in application. included an analysis of the Brazil, this same transition of sessions at international results of the 2007 Global Africa, Chief Investigator INSTITUTO DE ESTUDOS will take less than 20 years. conferences. Ageing Survey (GLAS), which Bob Cumming organised a DE SAÚDE SUPLEMENTAR special session on ‘Adapting ASIAN POPULATION involved individuals aged (IESS), BRAZIL The country therefore Africa’s Health Systems to ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE between 40 and 79 years The IESS is a private research presents an unusual Manage Non-Communicable This special session residing in 21 countries and institute, founded and opportunity for CEPAR to help Diseases in Older Persons’. organised by CEPAR as part territories across five major sponsored by large health promote awareness of Africa has the fastest of the Asian Population regions of the world, as well insurers in Brazil (with about population ageing growing number of older Association Conference as presentations covering 20 million policy holders). It is internationally, and we are people in the world. held in Bangkok in August country-specific studies. focussed on the economic looking forward to working John Beard, Director of the focused on Intergenerational aspects which affect the with IESS in the future. World Health Organisation’s INTERNATIONAL LINKS

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CEPAR Department of Ageing and Emily Grundy, Cambridge Carol Jagger, AXA Professor of the Risk Rated Health and the Life-course, joined five INTERNATIONAL VISITORS University’s first Professor Epidemiology of Ageing at the Sickness Insurance Workshop

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • other speakers to explore The Centre hosted 33 of Demography, delivered the UK’s Newcastle University and hosted by the Institute of this important issue. international visitors in 2012. inaugural CEPAR Distinguished CEPAR Partner Investigator, Actuaries of Australia. Thomas Clausen from the They participated in a range Lecture in February 2012. was the special guest at the Dimitris Christelis, a Research University of Oslo; Melvyn of CEPAR events and In her lecture, ‘Later Life Ageing Well: Evidence for a Fellow at the Centre for Freeman from South Africa’s activities, contributed to the Health and Wellbeing in Healthy Future Seminar in Studies in Economics and Department of Health; development and execution Ageing Populations: European April 2012. Hosted by Finance at the University Joseph Mugisha from MRC of research projects and Perspectives’, Professor University of Sydney, CEPAR,

INTERNATIONAL LINKS of Naples Federico II, visited Entebbe, Uganda; Ousmane brought an international Grundy presented results together with the Australian CEPAR on two separate Faye from the University perspective to bear on from research in the UK and Association of Gerontology occasions in 2012, spanning Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, the research program. Europe on demographic (NSW), Hunter Medical more than 60 days in total. Senegal; together with Bob and other influences on Research Institute Public As a Research Officer working Cumming, discussed how One of the ways in which intergenerational support, Health, and the Sax Institute, extensively with the Survey to expand the agenda of our visitors contribute to including kin availability. the Seminar featured a of Health, Ageing and African ministries of health our outreach to the wider She also explored how presentation by Professor Retirement in Europe(SHARE), from infectious diseases in community is through individual family life course Jagger on “Healthy Active Christelis was well placed children to include diseases distinguished lectures trajectories, namely fertility Ageing - Prospects for the to participate in discussions like heart attacks, stroke and public presentations. and marital histories, influence Future Drawing on a Number with CEPAR on the and cancer. Highlights included: later life health and wellbeing. of Longitudinal and development of a proposal Epidemiological Studies”. to create a pilot dataset Ermanno Pitacco, Professor of for Australia harmonised Economics from the University with the US Health and of Trieste, Italy, delivered a Retirement Survey (HRS), public lecture at UNSW in July the English Longitudinal titled ‘From “Benefits” to Study of Ageing (ELSA), and “Guarantees”: Looking at Life SHARE. He provided expert Insurance Products in a New input to the proposed survey Framework’. This lecture design and valuable insight explored a variety of into the European experience. packages and options and the In late 2012, Dr Christelis wide range of “guarantees” formalised his relationship and hence risks borne by the with the Centre by accepting insurance company or an affiliation as an Associate pension fund; discussed Investigator. His ongoing modelling tools; and examined guidance and expertise appropriate product design will be critical to the further aimed at sharing risks development of this dataset. between the insurer and the During his visit he also worked policyholders. Professor extensively with early career Pitacco also presented at the researcher, Isabella Dobrescu AGEING WELL: EVIDENCE FOR A HEALTHY FUTURE SEMINAR. FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: ANTHONY BROWN (UNIVERSITY Longevity Risk Workshop on two research projects. OF WESTERN SYDNEY), CAROL JAGGER (NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY, UK) JULIE BYLES (NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY, NSW) hosted by PwC as well as VASI NAGANATHAN (UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY), HAL KENDIG (UNIVERISTY OF SYDNEY) 117

Her research spans In 2012, CEPAR was proud to PROFESSOR JOHN RUST PROFESSOR OLIVIA S. MITCHELL CEPAR demography and host the following visitors: University of Georgetown Wharton School,

University of Pennsylvania 12 March–30 March 2012 ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • epidemiology with a PROFESSOR HENRY OHLSSON 12–20 July 2012 focus on trajectories Department of Economics, YANG ZHENZHEN of mental and physical Uppsala University College of Public Administration, PROFESSOR JAMES FEIGENBAUM Zhejiang University Utah State University functioning with ageing, 3 October 2011–31 January 2012 31 March–17 May 2012 24–25 July 2012 measuring disability and ERIK HERNAES determinants of healthy Frisch Centre for Economic DR SEVERINE GAILLE DR HONGQIN CHANG active life expectancy, Research, University of Oslo University of Lausanne Business Administration College,

Taiyuan University of Technology INTERNATIONAL LINKS particularly through cohort 4 January–7 March 2012 16 April–15 June 2012 31 July–6 August 2012 studies of ageing: the DR SIMEN MARKUSSEN PROFESSOR CAROL JAGGER Melton Mowbray studies Frisch Centre for Economic Institute of Ageing and Health, DR RENUKA SANE PROFESOR CAROL JAGGER and currently the MRC Research, University of Oslo Newcastle University, U.K. Indira Gandhi Institute of BSc MSc Leeds, PhD Leicester 4 January–7 March 2012 23–24 April 2012 Development Research PARTNER INVESTIGATOR Cognitive Function and 31 July–6 August 2012 Ageing Study and the PROFESSOR EMILY GRUNDY ASSISTANT PROFESSOR MRC Newcastle 85+ study. Centre for Population Studies, JOCHEN O. MIERAU PROFESSOR NORIYUKI TAKAYAMA Carol Jagger is the AXA London School of Hygiene and The University of Groningen Research Institute for Policies Professor of Epidemiology She brings to the Centre Tropical Medicine 1 May–8 June 2012 on Pension and Aging, Tokyo of Ageing in the Institute statistical and 23 January–19 February 2012 6–18 September 2012 ASSISTANT PROFESSOR for Ageing and Health at epidemiological expertise DR SOPHIE PENNEC VIOLA ANGELINI DR DOUGLAS POWELL Newcastle University, UK. particularly in cross- Institut national des etudes The University of Groningen Department of Psychiatry, demographiques, Paris 1 May–8 June 2012 Harvard Medical School She has an Honorary national comparative analyses, healthy life 23 January–9 June 2012 16–18 September 2012 Visiting Fellowship at the DR ELLEN GARDE Department of Public Health expectancy and its DR DIMITRIS CHRISTELIS University of Copenhagen DR FANNY ANNEMARIE KLUGE and Primary Care, University determinants and Centre for Studies in Economics 11–23 May 2012 Max Planck Institute for consequences, and and Finance, University of Naples Demographic Research of Cambridge and is Federico II simulation modelling of PROFESSOR ARNSTEIN MYKLETUN 26 September–16 October 2012 Visiting Professor in the 31 January–22 February 2012; The University of Bergen Epidemiology of Ageing in disease and disability. 5 September–20 October 2012 13–14 June 2012 DR NATHAN CONSEDINE the Institute of Primary The University of Auckland PROFESSOR JAMES SMITH DR NILAM RAM 10–12 October 2012 Care and Health Sciences RAND Institute Pennsylvania State University Research, Keele University. 1–6 February 2012 18–29 June 2012 PROFESSOR PETER ZWEIFEL She is a Fellow of the University of Zurich JIM OEPPEN 29–30 November 2012 Faculty of Public Health, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR Max Planck Institute for MINCHUNG HSU Fellow of the Royal Demographic Research National Graduate Institute for DR JOSHUA WIENER Statistical Society and 13 February–11 March 2012 Policy Studies, Tokyo RTI International Chartered Scientist, 25 June–1 July 2012 3–4 December 2012 DR PAUL MCNAMEE Member of the British Health Economics Research Unit, PROFESSOR ANNAMARIA OLIVIERI DR JOSÉ-LUIS FERNÁNDEZ Geriatrics Society and a University of Aberdeen University of Parma London School of Economics and Fellow of the Gerontological 27 February–12 April 2012 3–21 July 2012 Political Science Society of America. 3–4 December 2012 ASSISTANT PROFESSOR BERTEL PROFESSOR ERMANNO PITACCO SCHJERNING University of Trieste University of Copenhagen 3–21 July 2012 12 March–30 March 2012

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CEPAR MICHAEL KEANE JOHN PIGGOTT INTERNATIONAL VISITS Arizona State University World Bank

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 10 January–6 February 2012 9–10 January 2012 CEPAR investigators were invited to visit a number Nuffield College, Oxford University Ragnar Frisch Centre for Applied 1 September 2012 –30 August 2013 Economic Research, Oslo of leading research 13–16 November 2012 institutions in 2012: HAL KENDIG Leeds University Netspar DANIEL ALAI 21–23 May, 2012 21–29 January 2012 University of Manitoba 23 November 2012 3 August 2012 Manchester University INTERNATIONAL LINKS Institute for Fiscal Studies, UK 24–25 May 2012 KAARIN ANSTEY 24 November 2012 Museum of Modern Art, New York BEI LU Instituto de Estudos de Saúde Noriyuki Takayama is a Distinguished 19 April 2012 Zhejiang University, China Suplementar–IESS, Sao Paulo May 2012 Scholar at the Research Institute for University of California, 26–27 November 2012 Polices on Pension and Aging (RIPPA) San Francisco ELISABETTA MAGNANI 21 April 2012 MICHAEL SHERRIS and a JRI Pension Research Chair Professor Centre for Labour Market Studies, University of Manitoba at the Institute of Economic Research University of Alberta Leicester University 3 August 2012 at Hitotsubashi University. He is also a 8–12 July 2012 22–27 November 2012 University of Parma CEPAR Associate Investigator. Bologna Institute for Policy 3–14 September 2012 ELENA CAPATINA Research, Johns Hopkins National Graduate Institute for He holds a PhD from the University of Tokyo. University, Bologna Center Collegio Carlo Alberto, Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo 15 September–20 December 2012 University of Torino He is Director General and CEO of a research 14–21 December 2012 10 September 2012 Project on Intergenerational Equity SHIKO MARUYAMA (PIE: 2000-2015). He has been a key BOB CUMMING The Rockwool Foundation Terry College of Business, National Geriatric Hospital Research Unit, Copenhagen influence in Japanese pension reform for Athens, Georgia Hanoi, Vietnam 31 October–3 December 2012 12 November 2012 many years and has published numerous 17 April 2012 books and articles in international CERGE-EI, Prague ALAN WOODLAND JOELLE FONG 12 November 2012 The University of Aix-Marseille publications including Econometrica Oxford Institute of Ageing 20 August–17 October 2012 and the American Economic Review. 24 June 2012 PETER MCDONALD United Nations Population Fund, Professor Takayama has a long-standing Singapore Management University New York 7 May 2012 collaborative relationship with John 2–6 July 2012 RAMONA MEYRICKE Piggott. As well as facilitating the proposal KATJA HANEWALD Cambridge University for a joint conference with RIPPA, his visit Department of Finance, 27 August–3 September 2012 in September enabled the development of a Maastricht University 25–30 March 2012 collaborative research project with John KATE O’LOUGHLIN Piggott and Hazel Bateman on risk-control University of Parma Leeds University 3–14 September 2012 21– 23 May 2012 in designing pension policies. He also Manchester University presented the paper, “Does a Bad Start FEDOR ISKHAKOV Lead to a Bad Finish in Japan?” University of Copenhagen 24–25 May 2012 as part of the CEPAR Seminar Series. 15–22 June 2012 Nuffield College, Oxford University 8–22 December 2012 CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH 119

& FINANCIAL STATEMENT PERFORMANCE INDICATORS PERFORMANCE INDICATORS SECTION 2012 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

120 CEPAR MEASURE TARGET RESULT

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH FINDINGS Total research outputs 40 268 – Refereed journal articles 12 89 – Percentage appearing in A* and A journals 35% 49% Invited talks/papers/keynotes given at major international meetings 12 40

KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Commentaries about the Centre’s achievements – Media releases 8 14 – Articles 6 68 RESEARCH TRAINING AND PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION Attended professional training courses for staff and postgraduate students 5 7 Centre attendees at all professional training courses 17 65 New PhD students working on core Centre research and supervised by Centre staff 6 8 New postdoctoral researchers recruited to the Centre working on core Centre research 8 8 New Honours students working on core Centre research and supervised by Centre staff 4 3 Postgraduate completions 0 2 Early Career Researchers working on core Centre research 13 24 Students mentored 150 30010 Mentoring programs 4 5 INTERNATIONAL, NATIONAL AND REGIONAL LINKS AND NETWORKS International visitors and visiting fellows 12 33 National and international workshops held/organised by the Centre 3 9 Visits to overseas universities or organisations 6 35 Interdisciplinary research: Research projects and papers 2 8 co-authored by writers with different disciplinary backgrounds

10 Includes students mentored under the Emerging Researchers in Ageing initiative. 121 CEPAR MEASURE TARGET RESULT

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • END-USER LINKS

Government, industry and business community briefings 5 59

Public awareness programs 2 2 Currency of information on the Centre’s website (number of updates per year) 10 updated at least weekly Website hits 4000 4,022 unique visitors KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Public talks given by Centre staff 15 17 ORGANISATIONAL SUPPORT Annual cash contributions from Collaborating Organisations11 $938,250 $938,250 Annual in-kind contributions from Collaborating Organisations $969,201 $1,450, 584 Annual cash contributions from Partner Organisations $150,000 $100,000 Annual in-kind contributions from Partner Organisations $729,722 $793,019 Other research income secured by Centre staff 12 – ARC grants $250,000 $1,261,929 – Other Australian Competitive Grants $250,000 $2,106,021 – Other Commonwealth, State and Local Government Grants $125,000 $347,609 – Industry/Private Sector Grants $125,000 0 Number of new organisations collaborating with, or involved in, the Centre 1 4 NATIONAL BENEFIT Contribution to the National Research Priorities and the National Innovation Priorities – Public conferences 1 2 – Government and industry briefings 3 59 – Communiques etc 12 82

11 Included in this figure is a delayed payment of $116,520 from ANU which will be made in the first quarter, 2013. 12 Includes all new grants awarded since the Centre’s inception where a CEPAR Chief Investigator and/or Research Fellow is included in the research team as a Chief Investigator. Only 2012 income is shown. RESEARCH OUTPUTS

122

CEPAR 2 Alai, D.H. and Sherris, M. 9 Bunce, D., Anstey, K.J., 14 Byles, J.E., Gallienne, L., 20 Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. B BOOK CHAPTERS (2012). Rethinking Age- Cherbuin, N., Gautam, P., Blyth, F.M. and Banks, E. (2012). Pensions, Ageing and

Period-Cohort Mortality Trend Sachdev, P. and Easteal, S. (2012). Relationship of Age Retirement in Australia: ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 1 Browning, C., Heine, C., and Models. Scandinavian (2012). APOE Genotype and and Gender to the Prevalence Long-Term Projections and Thomas, S. (2012). Promoting Actuarial Journal, doi: 10.1080 Entorhinal Cortex Volume in and Correlates of Policies. The Australian Ageing Well: Psychological /03461238.2012.676563. Non-Demented Community- Psychological Distress in Economic Review, 45 (3), Contributions. In L. Dwelling Adults in Midlife and Later Life. International 350-361. Ricciardelli and M. Caltabiano 3 Anstey, K.J., Horswill, M., Early Old Age. Journal of Psychogeriatrics, 24 (6), Applied Topics in Health Wood, J. and Hatherly, C. Alzheimer’s Disease, 1009-1018. 21 Clemson, L., Fiatarone Singh, Psychology. (pp 57-71). (2012). The Role of Cognitive 30 (4), 935-942. M.A., Bundy, A., Cumming, Wiley-Blackwell. and Visual Abilities as 15 Byles, J. E., Mackenzie, L., R.G., Manollaras, K., Predictors in the 10 Burns, R.A., Butterworth, P., Redman, S., Parkinson, L., O’Loughlin, P. and Black, D.

RESEARCH OUTPUTS 2 Hosseini-Chavoshi, M. and Multifactorial Model of Driving Windsor, T.D., Luszcz, M., Ross Leigh, L. and Curryer, C. (2012). Integration of Balance Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. (2012). Safety. Accident Analysis L.A. and Anstey, K.J. (2012). (2012). Supporting Housing and Strength Training into Demographic Transition in and Prevention, 45, 766-774. Deriving Prevalence and Neighbourhoods for Daily Life Activity to Reduce Iran: Changes and Challenges. Estimates of Depressive Healthy Ageing: Findings from Rate of Falls in Older People In H. Groth and A. Sousa-Poza 4 Bartlett, H. (2012). Caring for Symptoms Throughout the Housing and Independent (The LiFE Study): Randomised (Eds.) Population Dynamics in Older People in Australia: Middle and Old Age in Those Living Study (HAIL). Parallel Trial. British Medical Muslim Countries: Assembling Policy Challenges and Living in the Community. Australasian Journal on Journal, 345, e4547. doi: the Jigsaw. (pp 97- 116). Opportunities. Hong Kong International Ageing, doi: 10.1111/j.1741- 10.1136/bmj.e4547. Springer. Journal of Mental Health, Psychogeriatrics, 6612.2012.00646.x. In press 31 (1), 10-17. 24, 503-511. (available online 25 22 Cordella, M., Radermacher, H., 3 Kippen, R. and McDonald, P. October 2012). Huang, H., Browning, C.J., (2012). Population. In 5 Bartlett, H., Peach, L., Lui, 11 Burns, R.A., Birrell, C.L., Steel, Baumgartner, R., De Soysa, T. Pearson, C.J. (Ed) 2020: Vision C-W., and Carroll, H. (2012). D., Mitchell, P. and Anstey, K.J. 16 Cherbuin, N., Luders, E., Chou, and Feldman, S. (2012). for a Sustainable Society. (pp Preventing Social Isolation in (2012). Alcohol and Smoking Y.Y., Thompson, P.M., Toga, Intergenerational and 2-9). Melbourne Sustainable Older People: Findings and Consumption Behaviours in A.W. and Anstey, K.J. (2012). Intercultural Encounters: Society Institute. University Issues from a Queensland Older Australian Adults: Right, Left, and Centre: How Connecting Students and of Melbourne. Study. Ageing and Society, Prevalence, Period and does Cerebral Asymmetry Mix Older People through 1-23. Published online Socio-Demographic with Callosal Connectivity? Language Learning. Journal 4 McDonald, P. (2012). 30 May 2012. Differentials in the DYNOPTA Human Brain Mapping, doi: of Intergenerational Forecasts and Projections of 6 Bateman, H. and Kingston, G. Sample. Social Psychiatry and 10.1002/hbm.22022. In press Relationships, 10 (1), 80-85. Australia’s Population. In Psychiatric Epidemiology. In (available online March 2012). Pincus, J. and Hugo, G. (Eds.) (2012). The Future of Financial 23 Crisp, A., Dixon, T., Jones, G., Advice and MySuper. JASSA, press (available online A Greater Australia: August 2012). 17 Cherbuin, N., Sachdev, P.S. Cumming, R.G., Laslett, L.L., Population, Policies and 3, 50-54. and Anstey, K.J. (2012). Bhatia, K., Webster, A. and Governance (pp50-59). 7 Bateman, H., Eckert, C., 12 Burns, R.A., Butterworth, P., Higher ‘Normal’ Fasting Ebeling, P.R. (2012). Declining Committee for Economic Geweke, J., Louviere, J., Luszcz, M. and Anstey, K.J. Plasma Glucose is Associated Incidence of Osteoporotic Hip Development of Australia. Satchell, S. and Thorp, S. (2012). Stability and Change With Hippocampal Atrophy: Fracture in Australia. Archives Melbourne. (2012). Financial Competence in the Level of Probable The PATH Study. Neurology, of Osteoporosis, 7 (1-2), and Expectations Formation: Depression and Depressive 79 (10), 1019-1026. 179-185. Evidence from Australia. Symptoms in a Sample of Middle and Older-Aged 18 Cherbuin, N., Sargent-Cox, 24 Crisp, D., Windsor, T., Anstey, The Economic Record, K. and Anstey, K.J. (2012). K.J. and Butterworth, P. 88 (280), 39-63. Adults. International C1 JOURNAL ARTICLES: Psychogeriatrics, 1-7. In Subjective Memory (2012). Considering 8 Batterham, P.J., Bunce, D., press (available online Difficulties are Associated Relocation to a Retirement ARTICLES IN with Hippocampal Atrophy Village: Predictors from a SCHOLARLY Cherbuin, N., and Christensen, August 2012). H. (2012). Apolipoprotein E Over Four Years: The Path Community Sample. REFEREED JOURNALS [epsilon]4 and Later-Life 13 Burns, R.A., Byles, J., Mitchell, Through Life Study. Australasian Journal on Decline in Cognitive Function P. and Anstey, K.J. (2012). Alzheimer’s and Dementia, Ageing, doi: 10.1111/j.1741- 1 Aggarwal, N.T., Tripathi, N., and Grip Strength. American Positive Components of 8 (4), 103. 6612.2012.00618.x. (available Dodge, H.H., Alladi, S. and Journal of Geriatric Mental Health Provide online 17 October 2012). Anstey, K.J. (2012). Trends in Significant Protection 19 Chiarinni, G., Ray, P., Akter, Psychiatry. doi: 10.1097/ S., Masella, C. and Ganz, A. 25 Crisp, D.A., Windsor, T.D., Alzheimer’s Disease and JGP.0b013e318266b1ee. Against Likelihood of Falling Dementia in the Asian-Pacific in Older Women Over a 13-Year (2012). mHealth Technologies Anstey, K.J. and Butterworth, Region. International Journal Period. International for Chronic Diseases and P. (2012). What are Older of Alzheimer’s Disease, 2012. Psychogeriatrics, 24 (9), 1 Elders: A Systematic Review. Adults Seeking? Factors Article ID 171327, 419-1428. IEEE Journal on Selected Encouraging or Discouraging doi:10.1155/2012/171327. Areas of Communication, Retirement Village Living. Forthcoming (accepted for Australasian Journal on publication August 2012). Ageing, doi: 10.1111/j.1741- 6612.2012.00623.x. 123

26 Das, D., Cherbuin, N., Anstey, 32 Eramudugolla, R., Cherbuin, 37 French, D., Sargent-Cox, K. 42 Gnjidic, D., Le Couteur, D. G., 48 Hecht, C. and Hanewald, K. CEPAR K.J. and Easteal, S. (2012). N., Easteal, S., Jorm, A.F. and and Luszcz, M. (2012). Hilmer, S. N., Cumming, R. G., (2012). Who Responds to Tax

ADHD Symptoms and Anstey, K.J. (2012). Correlates of Subjective Blyth, F.M., Naganathan, V., Reforms? Evidence from the ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Cognitive Abilities in the Self-Reported Cognitive Health across the Ageing Waite, L., Handelsman, D. J. Life Insurance Market. The Mid-Life Cohort of the PATH Decline on the IQCODE is Lifespan: Understanding and Simon Bell, J. (2012). Geneva Papers on Risk and Through Life Study. Journal of Associated with Dementia, Self-Rated Health in the Sedative Load and Functional Insurance - Issues and Attention Disorders, doi: IADLs and Depression, but not Oldest-Old. Journal of Aging Outcomes in Community- Practice, 37 (1), 5-26. 10.1177/1087054712460887. Longitudinal Cognitive and Health, 24 (8), 1449-1469. Dwelling Older Australian Men: Change in a Community Based The CHAMP Study. 49 Hirani, V., Cumming, R.G., 27 Das, D., Cherbuin, N., Anstey, Sample: The PATH Through 38 Giles, L.C., Giles, Anstey, K.J., Fundamental & Clinical Blyth, F., Naganathan, V., Le K.J., Sachdev, P.S. and Life Study. Dementia and Walker, R.B. and Luszcz, M.A. Pharmacology. Couteur, D.G., Handelsman, Easteal, S. (2012). Lifetime Geriatric Cognitive Disorders. (2012). Social Networks and doi:10.1111/j.1472- D.J., Waite, L.M. and Seibel,

Cigarette Smoking is In press. Memory over 15 Years of 8206.2012.01063.x. M.J. (2012). Vitamin D Status RESEARCH OUTPUTS Associated with Striatal Followup in a Cohort of Older among Older Community Volume Measures. Addiction 33 Everingham, J., Warburton, J., Australians: Results from the 43 Gnjidic, D., Le Couteur, D.G., Dwelling Men Living in a Sunny Biology, 17 (4), 817-825. Cuthill, M. and Bartlett, H. Australian Longitudinal Study Naganathan, V., Cumming, Country and Associations (2012). Collaborative of Ageing. Journal of Aging R.G., Creasey, H., Waite, L.M., with Lifestyle Factors: The 28 Das, D., Cherbuin, N., Governance of Ageing: Research, 2012. Sharma, A., Blyth, F.M. and Concord Health and Ageing in Butterworth P., Anstey, K.J. Challenges and Dilemmas for doi:10.1155/2012/856048. Hilmer, S.N. (2012). Effects of Men Project. Journal of and Easteal, S. (2012). A Local Government in Drug Burden Index on Nutrition, Health and Ageing. Population-Based Study of Partnering with the Seniors’ 39 Gillespie, L.D., Robertson, Cognitive Function in Older Forthcoming (accepted for Attention Deficit/ Sector. Local Government M.C., Gillespie, W.J., Men. Journal of Clinical publication 18 November Hyperactivity Disorder Studies, 38 (2), 161-181. Sherrington, C., Gates, S., Psychopharmacology, 2012). Symptoms and Associated Clemson, L.M. and Lamb, S.E. 32 (2), 273-277. Impairment in Middle-Aged 34 Fairweather-Schmidt, A. and (2012). Interventions for 50 Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., Adults. PLoS ONE, 7 (2), Anstey, K.J. (2012). Preventing Falls in Older 44 Gnjidic, D., Stanaway, F.F., Abbasi-Shavazi, M., e31500. doi:10.1371/journal. Prevalence of Suicidal People Living in the Cumming, R.G., Waite, L., Glazebrook, D. and McDonald, pone.0031500. Behaviours in Two Australian Community. Cochrane Blyth, F.M., Naganathan, V., P. (2012). Social and General Population Surveys: Database of Systematic Handelsman, D.J. and Le Psychological Consequences 29 Dean, C.M., Rissel, C., Methodological Review. doi: 10.1002/ Couteur. D.G. (2012). Mild of Abortion in Iran. Sherrington, C., Sharkey, M., Considerations when 14651858.CD007146.pub3. Cognitive Impairment Predicts International Journal of Cumming, R.G., Lord, S.R., Comparing Across Studies. Institutionalization among Gynecology and Obstetrics, Barker, R.N., Kirkham, C. and Social Psychiatry and 40 Gnijidic, D., Hilmer, S.N., Blyth, Older Men: A Population- 118 (2), S172-S177. doi: O’Rourke, S. (2012). Exercise Psychiatric Epidemiology, 47, F., Naganathan, V., Cumming, Based Cohort Study. PLoS 10.1016/S0020- to Enhance Mobility and 515-522. R.G., Handelsman, D.J., ONE, 7(9). doi:10.1371/journal. 7292(12)60018-6. Prevent Falls After Stroke: McLachlan, A.J., Abernathy, pone.0046061. The Community Stroke Club 35 Fänge, A.M., Oswald, F. and D.R., Banks, E. and Le Couteur, 51 Hyndman, R., Booth, H. and Randomized Trial. Clemson, L. (2012). Aging in D.G. (2012). High Risk 45 Gopinath, B., Anstey, K.J., Yasmeen, F. (2012). Coherent Neurorehabilitation and Place in Late Life: Theory, Prescribing and Incidence of Kifley A. and Mitchell, P. Mortality Forecasting: The Neural Repair, 26 (9) Methodology, and Frailty among Older (2012). Olfactory Impairment Product-Ratio Method with 1046-1057. Intervention. Journal of Community-Dwelling Men. is Associated with Functional Functional Time Series Aging Research. Clinical Pharmacology and Disability and Reduced Models. Demography, 50, (1), 30 DiGiacomo, M., Davidson, P., Article ID 547562. Therapeutics, 91 (3), 521-528. Independence among Older 261-283. (Available online 10 Byles, J. and Nolan, M. (2012). doi:10.1155/2012/547562. Adults. Maturitas, 72 (1), 50-55. October 2012). An Integrative and 41 Gnjidic, D., Hillme, SN., Blyth, Socio-Cultural Perspective of 36 French, D., Browning, C., F.M., Naganathan, V., Waite, 46 Griffin, B., Hesketh, B. and 52 Ilomäki, J., Gnjidic, D., Hilmer, Health, Wealth, and Kendig, H., Luszcz, M., Saito, Y., L., Seibel, MJ., McLachlan, AJ., Loh, V. (2012). The Influence S.N., Le Couteur, D.G., Adjustment in Widowhood. Sargent-Cox, K. and Anstey, K. Cumming, R.G., Handelsman, of Subjective Life Expectancy Naganathan, V., Cumming, Health Care for Women (2012). A Simple Measure with D.J. and Le Couteur, D.G. on Retirement Transition and R.G., Waite, L., Seibel, M.J., International. doi:10.1080/07 Complex Determinants: (2012). Polypharmacy and Planning: A Longitudinal Blyth, F.M., Handelsman, D.J. 399332.2012.712171. Investigation of the Correlates Adverse Outcomes: Study. Journal of Vocational and Bell, J.S. (2012). of Self-Rated Health in Older Determining the Best Cut-Off Behavior, 81(2), 129-137. Psychotropic Drug Use and 31 Dobrescu, L.I., Kotlikoff, L.J. Men and Women from Three for Polypharmacy Associated Alcohol Drinking in and Motta, A. (2012). Why Continents. BMC Public Health, with Geriatric Syndromes, 47 Hall A.M., Ferreira, M.L., Community-Dwelling Older Aren’t Developed Countries 12, 649. doi:10.1186/1471- Functional Outcomes and Clemson, L., Ferreira, P., Australian Men: The CHAMP Saving? European Economic 2458-12-649. Mortality in Older Adults. Latimer, J. and Maher, C.G. Study. Drug and Alcohol Review, 56 (6), 1261-1275. Journal of Clinical (2012). Assessment of the Review, (PMID: 22882728). In Epidemiology, In press. Therapeutic Alliance in press (August 2012). Physical Rehabilitation: A RASCH Analysis. Disability and Rehabilitation. 34 (3), 257-66. doi: 10.3109/09638288 .2011.606344. RESEARCH OUTPUTS

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CEPAR 53 Jang, J., Cushing, N., 59 Kim, S., Sargent-Cox, K.A., 65 McNamara, J., Kendig, H., 71 Qiao, C. and Sherris, M. (2012). 76 Singh, N. A., Quine, S., Clemson, L., Hodges, J.R. and French, D. J., Kendig, H. and Gong, C., Tanton, R. and Managing Systematic Clemson, L., Williams, E.,

Mioshi, E. (2012). Activities of Anstey, K.J. (2012). Hardingm, A. (2012) New Mortality Risk with Group Williamson, D., Stravrinos, T. ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Daily Living in Progressive Cross-National Insights into Spatial Techniques for Self-Pooling and and Fiatarone Singh, M. Non-Fluent Aphasia, the Relationship between Examining the Social and Annuitization Schemes. (2012). Effects of High Logopenic Progressive Wealth and Wellbeing: Economic Characteristics of Journal of Risk and Insurance. Intensity Progressive Aphasia and Alzheimer’s A Comparison between Individuals: The Geography of doi:10.1111/j.1539- Resistance Training and Disease. Dementia and Australia, the United States of Deep Economic Disadvantage 6975.2012.01483.x. Targeted Multidisciplinary Geriatric Cognitive Disorders, America and South Korea. among Older Australians. Treatment of Frailty on 33, 354-360. doi: Ageing and Society, Urban Studies. In press 72 Sambrook, P.N., Cameron, I., Mortality and Nursing Home 10.1159/000339670. 32 (1), 41-59. (accepted for publication Chen, J.S., Cumming, R.G., Admissions after Hip October 2012). Durvasula, S., Herrmann, M., Fracture: A Randomized

RESEARCH OUTPUTS 54 Jung, J. and Tran, C. (2012). 60 Ko, A., Van Nguyen, H., Chan, Kok, C., Lord, S., Macara, M., Controlled Trial. Journal of the The Extension of Social L., Shen, Q., Ding, X. M., Chan, 66 Motamarri, S., Ray, P. and March, L., Mason, R., Seibel, American Medical Directors Security Coverage in D. L, Brock, K. and Clemson, L. Poulos, C. (2012). Self M., Wilson, N. and Simpson, J. Association, 31(1), 24-30. Developing Countries. Journal (2012). Developing a Management of Chronic (2012). Does Increased of Development Economics, Self-Reported Tool on Fall Diseases Through mHealth. Sunlight Work as a Strategy to 77 Stewart Williams, J., Wallick, 99 (2), 439-458. Risk Based on Toileting Journal of eHealth Improve Vitamin D Status in CJ., Byles, JE. and Doran, C. Responses on In-Hospital Technology and The Elderly: A Cluster (2012). Assessing the Public 55 Keane, M. and Rogerson, R. Falls. Geriatric Nursing, Applications, 10 (1). Randomised Controlled Trial. Health Advantages of a (2012). Micro and Macro Labor 33 (1), 9-16. Osteoporosis International, Polypill for Prevention of Supply Elasticities: A 67 Noone, J., O’Loughlin, K. and 23, 615-624. Cardiovascular Disease in Reassessment of 61 Kumru, C.S. and Tran, C. (2012). Kendig, H. (2012). Australian Women. Journal of Conventional Wisdom. Temptation and Social Socioeconomic, 73 Sargent-Cox, K., Anstey, K., Clinical Epidemiology. In press Journal of Economic Security in a Dynastic Psychological, and Kendig, H. and Skladzien, E. (accepted for publication Literature, 50 (2), 464-476. Framework. European Demographic Determinants of (2012). Determinants of September 2012). Economic Review, 56 (7), Australian Baby Boomers’ Retirement Timing 56 Kendig, H., Wells, Y., 1422-1445. Financial Planning for Expectations in the United 78 Shu, S. and Sherris, M. (2012). O’Loughlin, K. and Heese, K. Retirement. Australasian States and Australia: A Heterogeneity of Australian (2012). Australian Baby 62 Liaw, S.T., Rahimi, A., Ray, P., Journal on Ageing, 31 (3), Cross-National Comparison of Population Mortality and Boomers Face Retirement Taggart, J., Dennis, S., de 194-197. the Effects of Health and Implications for a Viable Life during the Global Financial Lusignan, S., Jalaludin, B. and Retirement Benefit Policies Annuity Market. Insurance: Crisis. Journal of Ageing and Yeo, A. (2012). Towards an 68 Pearson, E.L., Windsor, T.D., on Retirement Timing Mathematics and Economics, Social Policy. In press Ontology for Data Quality in Crisp, D.A., Butterworth, P., Decisions. Journal of Ageing 51 (2), 322-332. (accepted for publication Integrated Chronic Disease Pilkington, P.D. and Anstey, and Social Policy, 24 (3), April 2012). Management: A Realist K.J. (2012). Normative Data 297-308. 79 Tait, R.J., French, D.J., Burns Review of the Literature. and Longitudinal Invariance R. and Anstey, K.J. (2012). 57 Kiely, K., Anstey, K, Gopinath, International Journal of of the Life Engagement Test 74 Sargent-Cox, K., Anstey, K.J. Alcohol Use and Depression B, Mitchell, P. and Browning, C. Medical Informatics, (LET) in a Community Sample and Luszcz, M.A. (2012). The from Middle Age to the Oldest (2012). Evaluating a 82 (1), 10-24. of Older Adults. Quality of Life Relationship between Change Old: Gender Is More Important Dichotomized Measure of Research. doi: 10.1007/ in Self-Perceptions of Ageing than Age. International Self-Reported Hearing Loss 63 Litchfield, M., Cumming, R.G., s11136-012-0146-2. and Physical Functioning in Psychogeriatrics, 20 (1), 9. against Gold Standard Smith, D., Naganathan, V., Le Older Adults. Psychology and Audiometry: Prevalence Couteur, D., Waite, L., Blyth, F. 69 Perkins, J. and Bartlett, H. Aging, 27 (3), 750-760. 80 Thomas, S., Browning, C. and Estimates and Age Bias in a and Handelsman, D.J. (2012). (2012). An Evaluation of Yang, H. (2012). Healthy Pooled National Dataset. Prostate Specific Antigen Dog-Assisted Therapy for 75 Shariff, S., Browning, C. and Ageing: Quality Issues in Aged Journal of Aging and Health, Levels in Men Aged 70 Years Residents of Aged Care Yasin, S. (2012). Promoting Care Service in China – 24 (3), 439-458. and Over: Findings from The Facilities with Dementia. Physical Activity in Sedentary Considering System Design. CHAMP Study. Medical Journal Anthrozoos. In press Elderly Malays with Type 2 China Health Human 58 Kiely, K.M., Gopinath, B., of Australia, 196, 395-398. (accepted for publication 4 Diabetes: A Protocol for Resources, 170 (6), 36-37. Mitchell, P., Luszcz, M.A. and June 2012). Randomised Controlled Trial. Anstey, K.J. (2012). Cognitive, 64 McDonald, P. (2012). The BMJ Open, 2 (6). doi: 10.1136/ 81 Tohit, N., Radermacher, H. and Health and Socio- Population Dimension in the 70 Pit, S.W. and Byles, J. (2012). bmjopen-2012-002119. Browning, C. (2012). ‘We Want demographic Predictors of Intergenerational Reports. The Association of Health and a Peaceful Life Here and Longitudinal Decline in Australian Economic Review, Employment in Mature Hereafter’: Healthy Ageing Hearing Acuity among Older 45 (3), 335-343. Women: A Longitudinal Study. Perspectives of Older Malays Adults. Journal of Journal of Women’s Health, 21 in Malaysia. Ageing and Gerontology: Series A, 67 (9), (3), 273-280. Society, 32 (3), 405-424. 997-1003. CEPAR ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • RESEARCH OUTPUTS 125 Nirmalendran, M., Sherris, M. M. Sherris, M., Nirmalendran, Kudrna, G. and Woodland, A. Woodland, and G. Kudrna, A. Woodland, and G. Kudrna, Kumru, C. and Piggott, J. Lu, B. (2012). Rural Pension, Lu, B. and Piggott, J. (2012). Magnani, E. (2012). Older Magnani, E., Verma, G. and McDonald, Reimondos, P., A., Workers’ Training Training Workers’ Opportunities in Times of Workplace CEPAR Innovation. Series. Paper Working (2012). A. Rammohan, CompetitionIntra-Household for Care: The Role of Social Bequest-Regulating Paper Working CEPAR Norms. Series. and Utomo, I.D. (2012). The Adulthood. of Markers Jakarta Greater 2010 Study. Adulthood to Transition Policy Background No. 3. and Hanewald, K. (2012). Solvency Capital, and Pricing Capitalization Strategies of Life Annuity Providers. CEPAR Series. Paper Working (2012). Macroeconomic and and Macroeconomic (2012). Welfare Effects of the 2010 Mandatory to Changes CEPAR Superannuation. Series. Paper Working Tax Progressive (2012). Private Pensions to Changes Life-Cycle a Framework.in Series. Paper Working CEPAR Income Capital Optimal (2012). Taxation with Means-Tested Benefits. Working CEPAR Series.Paper Inequality Family Income and Transfer in China. CEPAR Series. Paper Working Pension Migrant the Meeting Challenge in China. CEPAR Series. Paper Working

30 24 25 26 27 28 29 22 23

Kendig, H. and Phillipson C. Fong, J.H, Koh, B. and Fong, J.H., Piggott, J. and Hernaes, E., Markussen, S., Ho, D. and Sherris, M. (2012). Hull, Utomo, T., I.W., McDonald, Johar, M. and Maruyama, S. Crisp, D.A., Windsor, T.D., Location Choice of Siblings of Location Choice Altruism toward under Working Parents. CEPAR Series.Paper Friendly Age Building (2012). Cities. Health Inequalities Report. Academy British Policy Centre. Seniors ProductiveSeniors Centre. Ageing Mitchell, (2012). O.S. Disabilities and Functional Admittance. Home Nursing Series. Paper Working CEPAR Sherris, M. (2012). Public in Funds Pension Sector Australia: Longevity Selection Working Liabilities. CEPAR and Series.Paper Piggott, J. and Vestad, O. Age Retirement Does (2012). Mortality?Impact CEPAR Series. Paper Working Portfolio Selection for Securities: Linked Insurance An Application of Multiple Making. Criteria Decision Series. Paper Working CEPAR Reimondos,P., A., and Utomo. A. (2012). Rethinking Unmet Needs Reproductive Health The Adults. Young among Jakarta Greater 2010 Study. Adulthood to Transition Policy Brief No. 6. (2012). Externality and Strategic Interaction in the Butterworth P.J. and Anstey, Anstey, and Butterworth P.J. K.J. (2012). Relocation to a Village:Retirement Who and Relocation Considers For? Looking People are what National the Report for 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 14 .

Christelis, D., Dobrescu, L.I. Dobrescu, Christelis, D., Anstey, K.J. and Kiely, K.M. Bateman, H., Lai, A. and Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. Dobrescu, and Christelis, D. Anstey, K.J. (2012). Anstey, K.J. and O’Kearney, R. L.I. (2012). The Impact of Activities CognitiveSocial on Eleven from Evidence Ageing: Countries. CEPAR European Series. Paper Working and Motta, A. (2012). Early Life Financial and Conditions Age. Older in Risk–Taking Series. Paper Working CEPAR the Risks to Self-Harm and Elderly, the in Suicide Commentary “A On Reduce to Trial Randomized Depression Prevalence of the in Behavior Self-Harm and PrimaryOlder Patients”. Care Annals of Family 10.1370/ doi: July/August. Medicine, afm.1368 (2012). Evaluation of NHMRC Data on the Funding of Research in Dementia ReportAustralia. for A 26 Australia.Alzheimer’s Paper Stevens, R. (2012). Risk Retirement Information and Investment under Choices CEPAR Theory. Prospect Series. Paper Working Fiscal Long-Term (2012). the and Projections Australian Income Retirement Paper Working System. CEPAR Series. Labour Mature-Age (2012). Participation:Force Trends, Barriers, Incentives, and Future Potential. CEPAR Brief. Research Submission to Consultation to Submission Process National for Research Health Preventative Strategy. About GPs Educating (2012).

13 8 9 10 11 12 6 7 Neurobiology of Journals of . doi: 10.1093/ Aging and Mental , 16 (7), 931-937. , 33, 899-913. Agnew, J.R., Bateman, H. and Agnew, J.R., Bateman, H. and Alai, D.H. and Sherris, M. Alai, D.H., Landsman Z. and Zhu, W., Wen, W., He, Xia, Y., Agnew, J.R., Bateman, H. and Wood, J., Lacherez, and P. Young,J., Anstey, K.J., and Dependence Modelling using using Modelling Dependence Multivariate Truncated the Distribution. CEPAR Gamma Series. Paper Working Thorp, S. (2012). KnowledgeSuperannuation CEPAR Plan Behaviour. and Series. Paper Working Money, Work, (2012). S. Thorp, Lifestyle: Plans of Australian Retirees. CEPAR Working Series.Paper Rethinking Age-(2012). Period-Cohort Mortality Trend Paper Working CEPAR Models. Series. Sherris, M. (2012). Lifetime A., Anstey, K. J. and Sachdev, Changing (2012). P. Patterns in Topological Using Aging Normal Large-Scale Structural Networks. Aging Financial (2012). S. Thorp, RetirementLiteracy and Planning in Australia. CEPAR Series. Paper Working Anstey, K.J. (2012). Not all into Insight have Adults Older their Driving Abilities: On-Road an from Evidence Assessment Implications and for Policy. Gerontology: MedicalSciences gerona/gls150. Online (2012). N. Cherbuin, Older are - Memory Screening it can Interested and Adults Work? Health UNPUBLISHED REPORTS UNPUBLISHED

2 3 4 5 89 C5 1 87 88 , 50, BMC Accident Systematic Journal of , 12 (34), 1-7. . doi:10.1093/. , 67 (4), 423-431. , 1 (45). Wood, J., Horswill, M., Windsor, T.D., Fiori, K. L. and Windsor, T.D., Burns, R. and Wales, K., Clemson, L., Wales, K., Clemson, L., Analysis and Prevention1161-1168. Screening Tests for Predicting for Tests Screening Performance Driver Older and Safety Assessed by an On-Road Test. Gerontology: PsychologicalSciences Lacherez, and Anstey, P. K.J. (2012). Evaluation of Resources, Future Time Perspective Social and Older and Middle in Relations Adulthood. geronb/gbs088. geronb/gbs088. Crisp, D.A. (2012). Personal Neighbourhood and Midlife and Older Adulthood. Older and Midlife The Journals of SeriesGerontology, B: Psychological Sciences and SocialSciences Byles, J. (2012). Age and Predict Physical Functioning High and Low Arousal Positive and Negative Emotions in Evaluation of Measurement of Evaluation Properties. Reviews doi:10.1186/2046-4053-1-45. Assessments used by Occupational Therapists with Older Adults at Risk of Activity Participation Limitations:and A Systematic Review and Geriatrics D. I. Cameron, and N. Lannin, Functional (2012). (2012). Occupational Therapy (2012). Older for Planning Discharge Adults: A Protocol for a and Trial Randomised Evaluation. Economic Lannin, N. A., Cameron, I. D., Salkled, G., GiItlin, L., Rubenstein, L., Barras, S., Mackenzie, L. and Davies, C. 86 85 84 83 82 RESEARCH OUTPUTS

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CEPAR 31 Pearson, E., Windsor, T., Crisp. 7 Cherbuin, N. (May 2012). D., Butterworth, P. and OTHER OUTPUTS Poster Presentation. Higher E1 CONFERENCE: FULL E4 UNPUBLISHED

Anstey, K.J. (2012). Fasting Plasma Glucose ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Neighbourhood 1 Booth, H. and Rioseco, P. Levels in the Normal Range WRITTEN PAPERS IN CONFERENCE Characteristics and Ageing (2012). Older Australians are Associated with REFEREED PRESENTATIONS Well – A Survey of Older Providing Informal Care. Hippocampal Atrophy in PROCEEDINGS Australian Adults. NSPAC National Seniors Productive Cognitive Healthy 1 Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Research Monograph 2, Ageing Centre. Fact Sheet 11. Community-Based Older 1 Feng, J. (November 2012). The Hosseini-Chavoshi, M. and National Seniors Productive Canberra, Australia. Adults in their 60s. Effect of Tax Incentives on Bittles, A. (August 2012). Ageing Centre, Canberra. International Society for Voluntary Contributions to Consanguinity and Fertility 2 Booth, H. (2012). Poster Magnetic Resonance in Superannuation. Proceedings in Iran. Marriage in Asia: 32 Pitacco, E. (2012). From Presentation. Social Medicine (ISMRM). of the 11th National Trends, Determinants and

RESEARCH OUTPUTS “Benefits” to “Guarantees”: Networks and Ageing Project Melbourne, Australia. Conference of Emerging Implications. 2nd Asian Looking at Life Insurance (SNAP). Presented at the 16th Researchers in Ageing. Population Association Products in a New Framework. Australian Population 8 Cherbuin, N., Mortby, M., Brisbane, Australia, 106-109. Conference. Bangkok CEPAR Working Paper Series. Association Biennial Janke, A., Abhayaratna, W., Thailand. Conference, Melbourne, Sachdev, P.S. and Anstey, K.J. 2 Motamarri, S., Akter, S., Ray, P. 33 Pymont, C., Anstey, K.J. and Australia, December, 2012 (June 2012). Poster and Tseng, C.L. (July 2012). 2 Alai, D., Gaille, S. and Sargent-Cox, K. (2012). and the 45th Australian, Presentation. Improving the MHealth: A Better Alternative Sherris, M. (August 2012). Predictors of Driving Association of Gerontology Detection of Blood Pressure for Healthcare in Developing Investigating Causal Mortality Outcomes and Driving National Conference, and Regional Gray Matter Countries. Proceedings of the using the Multinomial Cessation in Older Drivers. Brisbane, Australia, Volume Associations in the 16th Pacific Asia Conference Logistic Model. North A 5 Year Validation Study. November, 2012. Healthy Elderly. Presented at On Information Systems American Actuarial Research Report Funded by and the Human Brain Mapping conference. Ho Chi Minh Conference. University of Prepared for the NRMA ACT 3 Booth, H. (November 2012). Conference, Beijing, China, City, Vietnam. Manitoba. Manitoba, Canada. Road Safety Trust. Poster Presentation. New June, 2012 and the ANU 3 Alai, D., Landsman, Z. and Forecasts of Population Dementia Collaborative 3 Shao, W., Sherris, M. and 34 Reimondos, A., Utomo, I.D., Sherris, M. (September 2012). Ageing in Australian States. Research Centres Poster Hanewald, K. (November 2012). McDonald, P., Hull, T., Lifetime Dependence 45th Australian Association Presentation Day, Canberra, Equity Release Products Suparno, H. and Utomo, A. Modelling using the Truncated of Gerontology National Australia, June, 2012. Allowing for Individual House (2012). Smoking and Young Conference. Brisbane, Price Risk. Proceedings of the Multivariate Gamma Adults in Indonesia. The 2010 Australia. 9 Jaeni, N., McDonald, P. and 11th Emerging Researchers in Distribution. Eighth Greater Jakarta Transition to Utomo, I. (August 2012). Ageing Conference, 94-97. International Longevity Adulthood Study. Policy 4 Booth, H. and Hyndman, R. Poster Presentation. Risk and Capital Markets Background No. 2. (December 2012). Poster Determinants of Unintended Solutions Conference. Presentation. Mortality Waterloo, Canada. 35 Utomo, I.D., McDonald, P., Pregnancy among Married Forecasting: Methods and Women in Indonesia. 2nd Reimondos, A., Hull, T. 4 Alai, D., Chen, H., Cho, D., Software. 16th Australian Asian Population Association and Utomo, A. (2012). E2 CONFERENCE: FULL Hanewald, K. and Sherris, M. Population Association Conference. Bangkok, Reproductive Health Services WRITTEN PAPERS IN (September 2012). Developing Biennial Conference. Thailand. for Single Young Adults. Melbourne, Australia. NON-REFEREED Equity Release Markets: Risk The 2010 Greater Jakarta Analysis for Reverse Mortgage 10 Utomo, I., McDonald, P., PROCEEDINGS Transition to Adulthood 5 Booth, H., Nepal, B., Pennec, Reimondos, A., Hull, T. and and Home Reversion. Eighth Study. Policy Brief No. 5. S., Brown, L. and the DYNOPTA Utomo, A. (August 2012). 1 Veprauskaite, E. and Sherris, M. International Longevity Team. (November 2012). Risk and Capital Markets 36 Veprauskaite, E. and Sherris, Poster Presentation. (July 2012). An Analysis of Poster Presentation. Contraceptive Use and Sexual Reinsurance Optimisation in Solutions Conference. M. (2012). An Analysis of Modelling Disability and Waterloo, Canada. Reinsurance Optimisation in Behaviour among Unmarried Life Insurance. Proceedings of its Risk Factors Using Young Adults in Indonesia. Life Insurance. CEPAR the Annual Conference of the 5 Ali, P. and McDonald, P. DynoptaSim. 45th Australian 2nd Asian Population Working Paper Series. Asia Pacific Risk and Insurance (August 2012). The Association of Gerontology Association Conference. Association. Seoul, Korea. Compounding Effects of 37 Ziveyi, J., Blackburn, C. and National Conference. Bangkok, Thailand. Brisbane, Australia. 2 Blackburn, C., Hanewald, K., Demographic, Socio- Sherris, M. (2012). Pricing Economic, and Morbidity to European Options on Deferred 11 Wesson, J., Clemson, L., Olivieri, A. and Sherris, M. (July 6 CEPAR. (2012). Aged Care Brodaty, H. and Reppermund, 2012). Comparing Life Insurer the Future Demand for Health Insurance Contracts. CEPAR Fact Sheet. CEPAR, Sydney, Care in an Ageing Population: Working Paper Series. S. (November 2012). Poster Longevity Risk Management Australia. Presentation. Clinical Utility Strategies in a Firm Value A Case for Indonesia. of Allen’s Cognitive Maximizing Framework. The 2nd Asian Population Disabilities Model. Allen’s Proceedings of the Annual Association Conference. Cognitive Network Conference of the Asia Pacific Bangkok, Thailand. Symposium. San Diego, USA. Risk and Insurance Association. Seoul, Korea. 127

6 Anstey, K. (December 2012). 13 Booth, H. (December 2012). 20 Chen, H., Sherris, M., Sun, T. 26 Clemson, L. (2012). Older 33 Gaille, S. and Sherris, M. CEPAR Plenary Speaker. Physical and Coherence in Mortality and Zhu, W. (January 2012). People Preventing Falls – (September 2012).

Mental Health and Cognitive Forecasting: Applications to Living with Ambiguity: Pricing Using Principles of Forecasting Mortality Trends ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Decline: Implications for the Australian Population by Mortality-Linked Securities Enablement to Attain Allowing for Cause-of-Death Prevention? Australasian Sex and State. Australian with Smooth Ambiguity Sustainability. Presented at Mortality Dependence. Eighth Society for Psychiatric Population Association 16th Preferences. Western Risk the IFA 11th Global Conference International Longevity Risk Research 2012 Conference. Biennial Conference. and Insurance Association on Ageing, Ageing Connects, and Capital Markets Solutions Perth, Australia. Melbourne, Australia. (WRIA) Annual Conference. Prague, Czech Republic, May, Conference. Waterloo, Canada. Hawaii, USA. 2012 and the Gerontological 7 Anstey, K. (October 2012). 14 Booth, H. (November 2012). Society of America, 65th 34 Hanewald, K. (January 2012). Plenary Speaker. Implications Unlocking the Structure of 21 Cherbuin, N. (September Annual Scientific Meeting San Statistical Models for of Developments in Mortality Data for Improved 2012). From the Individual to Diego, San Diego, USA, Postcode-Level House Price

Neuroscience for Judging. Forecasting. Australasian Policy: A Multi-Faceted November, 2012. Risk for Applications in RESEARCH OUTPUTS National Dialogues on Being a Mortality Data Interest Group Approach to Assess and Banking and Insurance. Judge. Adelaide, Australia. (AMDIG). Sydney, Australia. Decrease Dementia Risk and 27 Clemson, L. (November 2012). Annual Meeting of the Inform Population Health. Active Ageing, Health, Western Risk and Insurance 8 Anstey, K. (September 2012). 15 Booth, H., Rioseco, P. and National Dementia Forum. Behavioural and Social Association. Hawaii, USA. Plenary Speaker. Dementia Crawford, H. (December 2012). Canberra, Australia. Resources. 45th Australian Prevention. Australasian Demographic Determinants of Association of Gerontology 35 Hanewald, K. and Sherris, M. Consortium of Centres for the Social Connectivity and 22 Cherbuin, N. (June 2012). National Conference. (April 2012). House Price Risk Clinical Cognitive Research Wellbeing of Older Subjective Memory Brisbane, Australia. Models for Banking and (AC4R) Annual Seminar. Australians: Results from the Difficulties are Associated Insurance Applications. Canberra, Australia. Social Networks and Ageing with Hippocampal Atrophy 28 Clemson, L. (November 2012). Actuaries Institute Financial Project. Australian Population Over 4 Years: The Path The Profiles of Fallers and Services Forum. Melbourne, 9 Anstey, K. (September 2012). Association 16th Biennial Through Life Study. those who Fear Falling are Australia. Plenary Speaker. Update on Conference. Melbourne, Alzheimer’s Association Different: Implications for Prevention of Alzheimer’s Australia. International Conference. Practice. 45th Australian 36 Hanewald, K. Post, T. and Disease. National Dementia Vancouver, Canada. Association of Gerontology Sherris, M. (August, 2012). Collaborative Research 16 Booth, H., Rioseco, P. and National Conference. Risk Management in Centre Forum. Canberra, Crawford, H. (November 2012). 23 Cho, D., Hanewald, K. and Brisbane, Australia. Retirement – What is the Australia. SNAP Results on Social Sherris, M. (December 2012). Optimal Home Equity Release Connectivity and Wellbeing Risk Management and Payout 29 Cumming, R.G. (October 2012). Product? American Risk and 10 Anstey, K. (September 2012). among Older Australians. 45th Design of Reverse Mortgages. HIV among Older People Insurance Association Annual The Association between Australian Association of 5th Australasian Actuarial in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Meeting. Minneapolis, USA. Obesity, Cognitive Decline Gerontology National Education and Research Comprehensive Review. Africa and Dementia from Conference. Brisbane, Australia. Symposium. Melbourne, Ageing Beyond Madrid +10. 37 Hanewald, K. (2012). Solvency Middle-Age to Late-Life. The Australia. 1st Africa Region Conference Capital, Pricing and 3rd Annual Food Industry 17 Byles, J. (March 2012). Access of Gerontology and Geriatrics. Capitalization Strategies of Forum for Nutrition Research. to Health Care for Older 24 Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. Cape Town, South Africa. Life Annuity Providers. Sydney, Australia. Women in Rural and Remote (July 2012). Pensions, Ageing Presented at the 1st European Areas. Australian Association and Retirement in Australia: 30 Feng, J. (July 2012). Actuarial Journal Conference. 11 Bateman, H. (July 2012). The of Gerontology and Aged and Long Term Projections and Determinants of Lausanne, Switzerland, Future of Financial Advice Community Services Policies. 20th Annual Voluntary Contributions in September 2012; the Annual and MySuper. 17th Melbourne Association of NSW and ACT Colloquium of Superannuation Superannuation. 20th Annual Conference of the Asia- Money and Finance Incorporated NSW Rural Researchers. Sydney, Colloquium of Superannuation Pacific Risk and Insurance Conference: Recent Conference. Dubbo, Australia. Australia. Researchers. Sydney, Australia. Association, Seoul, South Developments in Financial Korea, May 2012; and the Regulation. Melbourne, 18 Byles, J. (September 2012). 25 Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. (May 31 Fong, J., Piggott, J. and 39th Seminar of the European Australia. Inspired by Ageing. South 2012). Long-Term Fiscal Sherris, M. (August 2012). Group of Risk and Insurance Australia Gerontology Projections and the Public Sector Pension Funds Economists. Palma de 12 Blackburn, C., Hanewald, K., Conference 2012. Australian Retirement Income in Australia: Longevity Olivieri, A. and Sherris, M. Mallorca, Spain, Adelaide, Australia. System. Intergen+10 Selection and Liabilities. September 2012. (September 2012). Comparing Workshop. Canberra, American Risk and Insurance Life Insurer Longevity Risk 19 Capatina, E. (2012). Life-Cycle Australia. Association Annual meeting. 38 Hanewald, K., Nirmalendran, Management Strategies in a Effects of Health Risk. Presented Minneapolis, USA. M. and Sherris, M. (September Firm Value Maximizing at the 3rd Australasian 2012). A Comparison and Framework. 39th Seminar of Workshop on Econometrics and 32 Gaille, S. and Sherris, M. Economic Analysis of the European Group of Risk Health Economics, Sydney, (October 2012). Causes-of- International Solvency and Insurance Economists. Australia, April, 2012 and the 9th Death Mortality: What Can Be Regimes for Life Annuity Palma de Mallorca, Spain. CAER Summer Workshop in Learned from Cointegration. Markets. 1st European Health Economics. Sydney, IAA International AFIR/ERM Actuarial Journal Conference. Australia, February, 2012. Colloquium. Mexico City, Mexico. Lausanne, Switzerland. RESEARCH OUTPUTS

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CEPAR 39 Heese, K., O’Loughlin, K. and 45 Iskhakov, F., Schjerning, B. and 51 Kendig, H. (May 2012). 57 Kumru, C. and Piggott, J. (2012). 63 McDonald, P. (May 2012). Kendig, H. (November 2012). Rust, J. (June 2012). A Universal and Equal Access to Optimal Capital Income Taxation The Population Dimension in

Socio-Demographic and Generalized Endogenous Grid Health Care Services. IFA 11th with Means-Tested Benefits. the Intergenerational Reports. ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Occupation Correlates of Age Method for Discrete- Global Conference on Ageing, Presented at the Econometric Intergen+10 Workshop. Discrimination: Who is at Continuous Choice. Conference Ageing Connects. Prague, Society Australasian Meeting Canberra, Australia. Risk? 45th Australian for the Society of Economic Czech Republic. (ESAM), Melbourne, Australia, Association of Gerontology Dynamics. Limasol, Cyprus. July, 2012; the Australian 64 Meyricke, R. and Sherris, M. National Conference. 52 Kendig, H, O’Loughlin, K. and Conference of Economists (June 2012). Aggregating Survival Brisbane, Australia. 46 Johar, M. and Maruyama, S. Heese, K. (November 2012). (ACE), Melbourne, Australia, Models: Individual vs Population (2012). Externality and Intergenerational Equity in July, 2012; the 20th Annual Mortality Dynamics. 16th 40 Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., Strategic Interaction in the Australia: Attitudes and Colloquium of Superannuation International Congress on Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. and Location Choice of Siblings Policies. Gerontological Researchers, Sydney, Australia, Insurance Mathematics and

RESEARCH OUTPUTS McDonald, P. (August 2012). under Altruism toward Society of America, 65th July, 2012; the Public Economic Economics. Hong Kong. Lifetime Pregnancy and Parents. Presented at the Annual Scientific Meeting. Theory (PET) Conference, Taipei, 65 Meyricke, R. and Sherris, M. Contraceptive Usage among 66th European Meeting of San Diego, USA. Taiwan, June 2012; and the Women Living In Low Fertility the Econometric Society, (September 2012). Systemic 53 Kendig, H. and Browning, C. Dynamics, Economic Growth Risk, Diversification and the Regions of Iran. 2nd Asian Malaga, Spain, August 2012; and International Trade Population Association the Japanese Economic (April 2012). Life Style Securitization of Longevity Risk. Influences on Ageing Well: (DEGIT) 2012, Milan, Italy, Eighth International Longevity Conference. Bangkok, Association Spring Meeting, September, 2012. Thailand. Sapporo, Japan, June, 2012; Findings from MELSHA. Risk and Capital Markets the 4th Biennial Conference Ageing Well: Evidence for a 58 Loh, V. and Kendig, K. Solutions Conference. 41 Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., of the American Society of Healthy Future. Australian (November 2012). Productive Waterloo, Canada. McDonald, P. and Abbasi- Health Economists (ASHEcon), Association of Gerontology. Engagement across the Shavazi, M.J. (December Sydney, Australia. 66 Nasrabad, H., Shavazi, M., Minneapolis, USA, June, 2012; Lifespan: Paid Work, Hosseini-Chavoshi, M. and 2012). Fertility Projection in the 12th SAET Conference on Caregiving, and Volunteering. Iran: A New Approach to 54 Kendig, H., O’Loughlin, K., Tabatabaei, M. (August 2012). Current Trends in Economics, Noone, J., Byles, J. and 45th Australian Association Short Postponement of Entry Measurement of Fertility. Brisbane, Australia, July, of Gerontology National Australian Population Nazroo, J. (November 2012). to Motherhood in Iran. The 2nd 2012 and the 34th Australian Life Course Influences on Conference. Asian Population Association Association 16th Biennial Conference of Health Brisbane, Australia. Conference. Melbourne, Disadvantage Among Conference. Bangkok, Thailand. Economists (AHES), Darwin, Australian Baby Boomers. Australia. Australia, September 2012. 59 Lu, B. (May 2012). Rural 67 Nirmalendran, M., Sherris, The Australian Sociological Pension, Income Inequality 42 Hosseini-Chavoshi. M. (May Association Conference. and Hanewald, K. (May 2012). 47 Jung, J. and Tran, C. (April and Family Transfer in China. A Comparison and Economic 2012). Past Trends and Future 2012). Fiscal Austerity Brisbane, Australia The First Aging and Social Prospects of Fertility Analysis of International Measures: Spending Cuts or 55 Kudrna, G. (July2012). Security International Solvency Regimes for Annuity Transition in Iran. 7th Tax Increases. Australasian Conference. Zhejiang, China. International Shanghai Macroeconomic and Welfare Markets. Actuaries Institute Macroeconomics Workshop. Effects of the 2010 Changes Financial Services Forum. Forum. Shanghai, China. Melbourne, Australia. 60 Lu, B. and Piggott, J. (July to Australia’s Mandatory 2012). Meeting the Migrant Melbourne, Australia. 43 Hosseini-Chavoshi, M., 48 Kendig, H. (November 2012). Superannuation. International Pension Challenge in China. McDonald, P. and Abbasi- Conference on Demographic 68 Njenga, C. and Sherris, M. (January Modifiable Factors in Ageing CESifo Venice Summer 2012). Mortality Stress Margins Shavazi, M.J. (June 2012). Well: Australian Longitudinal Trends, Saving and Institute Workshop. Fertility Projection in Iran: A Retirement Security. for Insurer Risk-Based Capital Findings. Gerontological Venice, Italy. Requirements for Pensions and Comparison of Iran and Society of America, 65th Munich, Germany. Australia. European 61 McDonald, P. (December, Life Annuities. Western Risk and Annual Scientific Meeting. 56 Kudrna, G. (June 2012). Insurance Association (WRIA) Population Conference. San Diego, USA. 2012). Plenary Speaker. Taking Stockholm, Sweden. Progressive Tax Changes to the Population Pressure off Annual Conference. Hawaii, USA. Private Pensions in a 49 Kendig, H. (May 2012). Ageing Capital Cities: Myth or Reality? 69 O’Loughlin, K. (May 2012). Age 44 Iskhakov, F., Schjerning, B. Well in Australia: Research Life-Cycle Framework. 18th Australian Population and Rust, J. (June 2012). A International Conference on Discrimination in Australian and Action. IFA 11th Global Association 16th Workplaces. IFA 11th Global Dynamic Model of Conference on Ageing, Computing in Economics and Biennial Conference. Leapfrogging Investments Finance. Prague, Czech Conference on Ageing, Ageing Connects. Prague, Melbourne, Australia. Ageing Connects. Prague, and Bertrand Price Czech Republic. Republic. Competition. Conference for 62 McDonald, P. (August 2012). Czech Republic. the Society of Economic 50 Kendig, H. (May 2012). The Compounding Effects of 70 O’Loughlin, K., Heese, K. and Kendig, Dynamics. Limasol, Cyprus. Attitudes Towards Demographic, Socio- H. (August 2012). Age Discrimination Intergenerational Equity in Economic, and Morbidity to among Older Workers: The Australia. IFA 11th Global the Future Demand for Health Australian Experience. Second Conference on Ageing, Care in an Ageing Population: ISA Forum of Sociology. Social Ageing Connects. Prague, A Case of Indonesia. The 2nd Justice and Democratization. Czech Republic. Asian Population Conference. Buenos Aires, Argentina. Bangkok, Thailand. 129

71 Piggott, J. (January 2012). 78 Utomo, I.D., McDonald, P., 84 Zhao, J. (August 2012). 6 Bateman, H. (December 2012). CEPAR Economic Aspects of Reimondos, A., Hull, T. and Mortality Data in Three INVITED PRESENTATIONS Keynote Speaker. How will

Intergenerational Solidarity. Utomo, A. (August 2012). Chinese Societies: China Finance its Pension ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • NETSPAR International Marriage and Relationship Comparability, Institutional TO MAJOR INTERNATIONAL System in the Future? Pensions Workshop. Patterns among Young Adults Causes, and Adjustment. MEETINGS Mariazeller Dialogue 2012. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. in Greater Jakarta. The 2nd The 2nd Asian 1 Alai, D. and Sherris, M. (August Mariazell, Austria. Asian Population Association Population Association 72 Rahimi, A., Liaw, S.T., Ray, P. 2012). Longitudinal Analysis 7 Bateman, H. (September Conference. Bangkok, Thailand. Conference. Bangkok, of Mortality Risk Factors. and Tagaart, J. (August 2012). Thailand. 2012). Converting Retirement Developing an Ontology for 79 Wesson, J., Clemson, L., North American Actuarial Savings to Income: Lessons Data Quality in Chronic Brodaty, H. and Reppermund, 85 Zhao, J. (2012). Patterns of Research Conference. from Australia. Retirement Disease Management. 24th S. (September 2012). Aged-People Life Expectancy University of Manitoba. Strategy Forum 2012. Manitoba, Canada.

European Medical Informatics Functional Cognition and in Three Chinese Cities. Seoul, Korea. RESEARCH OUTPUTS Conference. Pisa, Italy. Performance of Everyday Presented at the Population 2 Anstey, K. (June 2012). Tasks in Older People. Association of America 2012 8 Blackburn, C., Hanewald, K., 73 Richardson (Wales), K. (June Keynote Speaker. Optimizing Olivieri, A. and Sherris, M. (July International Psychogeriatrics Annual Meeting, San Cognitive Development over 2012). Assessment and Association International Francisco, USA, May, 2012 and 2012). Comparing Life Insurer Evaluation of Older Adults at the Life Course and Longevity Risk Management Meeting. Cairns, Australia. the 24th International Preventing Cognitive Decline: Risk of Functional Conference on Health Strategies in a Firm Value Limitations: A Systematic 80 Windsor, T. (November 2012). Findings from Longitudinal Maximizing Framework. Expectancy, Taichung, Research. International Review and Analysis of Profiles of Social Relations Taiwan, May 2012. Annual Conference of the Asia Psychometric Properties. among Older Australian Society for the Study of Pacific Risk and Insurance Northern Territory Adults. Australian 86 Zhao, Q. (December 2012). A Behavioural Development Association. Seoul, Korea. Occupational Therapy Psychological Society - Subordinated Markov Model 2012 Biennial Meeting (ISSBD Conference. Darwin, Australia. Psychology of Relationships for Australian Health and 2012). Alberta, Canada. 9 Capatina, E. (March 2012). Skills and the Evolution of Interest Group Conference. Mortality. Australasian 3 Anstey, K.J. (November 2012). 74 Sargent-Cox, K. (October Adelaide, Australia. Actuarial Education and Wage Inequality. 4th 2012). Longitudinal Change in Longitudinal Change in International Conference of Research Symposium. Functional Biomarkers Self-Perceptions of Ageing 81 Windsor, T.D. (November Melbourne, Australia. Macroeconomics and Policy. and Mortality. The Psychology 2012). Age, Health and Correlates with Cognitive Tokyo, Japan. of Healthy Ageing Symposium. Emotions in Middle and Older 87 Ziveyi, J., Blackburn, C. and Decline in Mid and Late-Life. Canberra, Australia. Adulthood. 45th Australian Sherris, M. (October 2012). Gerontological Society of 10 Cherbuin, N. (July 2012). Association of Gerontology Pricing European Options on America, 65th Annual Modifiable Risk Factors for 75 Sarntisart, S. (October 2012). National Conference. Deferred Insurance Contracts. Scientific Meeting. Conversion to Mild Cognitive The Economic Implications of Brisbane, Australia. IAA International San Diego, USA. Impairment in the PATH Religious Giving. 11th Through Life Study. AFIR/ERM Colloquium. 4 Anstey, K. (April 2012). Plenary International Conference 82 Yu, Y. (2012). The Body Mexico City, Mexico. International Society of the of the Japan Economic Mass-Mortality Association Speaker. Health and Study of Behavioral Policy Association (JEPA). in the United States: A A further 35 unpublished Cognition, Overview of Health Development Conference. Nagoya, Japan. Reassessment of Secular presentations were made at and Cognitive Aging. 13th Edmonton, Canada. Trends. Presented at The major international meetings. Cognitive Aging Conference. 76 Tran, C. and Woodland, A. Australian Mortality Data Interest These are included in the Georgia, USA. 11 Cherbuin, N. (July 2012). (July 2012). Trade-Offs in Trajectories of Brain Structure Group (AMIDG) Workshop, Sydney, following list. 5 Bartlett, H. (June 2012). Means-Tested Pension Australia, November, 2012 and in Middle-Age to Early Old Age Design. Macroeconomics Keynote Speaker. Health and and their Interaction with the Australian Population Social Care for Older Persons Dynamic Workshop. Association 16th Biennial Health and Lifestyle Risk Sydney, Australia. from Culturally and Factors. International Society Conference, Melbourne, Linguistically Diverse Australia, December 2012. for the Study of Behavioral 77 Utomo, A., Temple, J., Backgrounds: Australian Development Conference. McDonald, P. and Rice, J. 83 Yu, Y. and Booth, H (2012). Policy and Practice. The 2nd Edmonton, Canada. (December 2012). Work and Educational Differences in International Leadership Exit Patterns of Older Workers Mortality among Australian Assembly of Nursing Homes 12 Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. in Two Australian Public Service Women and the Role of cum APIAS-Tsao-ILC (November 2012). Private Organisations. Australian Smoking. Presented at the Symposium for Junior Pensions in Australia. Population Association 16th Australian Mortality Data Researchers on Active European Pension Biennial Conference. Interest Group (AMIDG) Ageing. Hong Kong, China. Funds Congress. Melbourne, Australia. Workshop, Sydney, Australia, Frankfurt, Germany. November, 2012 and the Australian Population Association 16th Biennial Conference, Melbourne, Australia, December 2012. RESEARCH OUTPUTS

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CEPAR 13 Cumming, R.G. (October 2012). 20 McDonald, P. (September 27 Piggott, J. (January 2012). 34 Sargent-Cox, K., Anstey, K.J. Osteoporosis and Falls. Africa 2012). Keynote Speaker. Keynote Speaker. Mandating and Luszcz, M.A. (November SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS

Ageing Beyond Madrid +10. Conference of the British Private Retirement Provision: 2012). Self-Perceptions of ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 1st Africa Region Conference Society for Population Decumulation Challenges. Aging Predict Major Health 1 Bartlett, H. (August 2012). of Gerontology and Geriatrics. Studies. Nottingham, NETSPAR International Events in Older Adults. The The Ageing Research Agenda: Cape Town, South Africa. England. Pensions Workshop. Tilburg, Gerontological Society of Where are we now? ERA The Netherlands. America. 65th Annual Scientific Virtual Seminar. Australia. 14 Fong, J. (June 2012). Beyond 21 McDonald, P. and Utomo, A. Meeting. San Diego, USA. Age and Sex: Enhancing (May 2012). Keynote Speaker. 28 Piggott, J. (May 2012). 2 Bateman, H. and Thorp, S. Annuity Pricing. RAND Data The Implications of Low Keynote Speaker. Ageing and 35 Sherris, M. (April 2012). (February 2012). The Paradox set Workshop at the Oxford Fertility for Future Labour Social Security. The 1st Aging Keynote Speaker. Global of Choice: Unravelling Institute of Ageing. Supply and GDP Per Capita in and Social Security Developments and Lessons Complex Superannuation Decisions. CPS Seminar

RESEARCH OUTPUTS Oxford, U.K. East Asian Countries. 7th International Conference. for Singapore. Singapore International Shanghai Zhejiang, China. Actuarial Society and Life Series. Sydney, Australia. 15 Ho, D. and Sherris, M. Forum. Shanghai, China. Insurance Association. 3 Blackburn, C. (April 2012). (November 2012). Portfolio 29 Piggott, J. (April 2012). Living Improving Retirement Selection for Insurance 22 McDonald, P. (June 2012). Longer, Working Longer: Annuity Pricing and the Security in Singapore Implied Price of Risk. Linked Securities: An Plenary Speaker. Gender Challenges and Conference. Singapore. Application of Multiple Criteria Equity Investments and Opportunities. Pensions: The CPS Seminar Series. Decision Making. Southern Economic Outcomes. Way Forward. Employees 36 Sherris, M. (August 2012). FCP Sydney, Australia. Finance Association Annual European Population Provident Fund (EPF) and the Twin Peaks System in 4 Booth, H. (December 2012). Meeting. South Carolina, USA. Conference. International Seminar 2012. Australia. CICS Summer New Developments in Stockholm, Sweden. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. International Symposium. Mortality Forecasting: 16 Jagger, C. (April 2012). Healthy Seoul, Korea. Active Ageing - Prospects for 23 McDonald, P. (August 2012). 30 Piggott, J. (November 2012). Coherent Forecasts for the Future. Ageing Well: Plenary Speaker. Opening Population Ageing in 37 Veprauskaite, E. and Sherris, Subpopulations. ANU Evidence for a Healthy plenary session of the 2nd Australia. Instituto de M. (July 2012). An Analysis of Research School of Finance, Future, Australian Asian Population Estudos de Saúde Reinsurance Optimisation in Actuarial Studies and Applied Association of Gerontology. Association Conference. Suplementar (IESS Life Insurance. The Annual Statistics (RSFAS, CBE) Sydney, Australia. Bangkok, Thailand. Conference). Conference of the Asia Summer School. Sao Paulo, Brazil. Pacific Risk and Insurance Canberra, Australia. 17 Johar, M. and Maruyama, S. 24 McDonald, P. (September Association. Seoul, Korea. (July 2012). Externality and 2012). Plenary Speaker. A 31 Ray, P. (December 2012). 5 Capatina, E. (2012). Life-cycle Strategic Interaction in the Century of Population Keynote Speaker. Towards an 38 Veprauskaite, E. and Sherris, Effects of Health Risk. Location Choice of Siblings Studies, Society and Intelligent and Ubiquitous M. (September 2012). An Presented at the under Altruism toward Population Studies’ Societies. Healthcare Infrastructure. Analysis of Reinsurance Macroeconomics Seminar, Parents. The 9th European British Society for Population Annual Conference of the Optimisation in Life Insurance. Economics Department at Conference on Health Studies Conference. Computer Society of India. The 1st European Actuarial ANU, Canberra, Australia, Economics (ECHE 2012). Nottingham, England. Kolkata, India. Journal (EAJ) Conference, February 2012 and the Zurich, Switzerland. University of Lausanne, Applied Economics Seminar, 25 Olivieri, A., Blackburn, C., 32 Ray, P. (October 2012). Lausanne, Switzerland. University of Queensland, St 18 McDonald, P. (May 2012). Life Hanewald, K. and Sherris, M. Realizing Ubiquitous Lucia, Australia, May 2012. Course Markers, (October 2012). Comparing Healthcare in this World: 39 Wesson, J., Clemson, L., Independence from Parents Life Insurer Longevity Risk Motivations and Challenges. Brodaty, H. and Reppermund, 6 Capatina, E. (June 2012). and Locus of Control among Management Strategies in a International Congress on S. (November 2012). Sydney Skills and the Evolution of Young Adults in Greater Firm Value Maximizing u-Healthcare. Geyoung-Ju, Memory and Ageing Study: Wage Inequality. Jakarta, Indonesia. Framework. IAA International South Korea. LACLS-5 and AMPS in Older Macroeconomics Lunchtime Population Association of AFIR/ERM Colloquium. People. Allen’s Cognitive Workshop. Sydney, Australia. 33 Reimondos, A., Utomo, I., America 2012 Annual Meeting. Mexico City, Mexico. Network Symposium. San 7 Cho, D. (August 2012). An San Francisco, USA. McDonald, P. and Hull, T. (June Diego, USA. 26 Piggott, J. (January 2012). 2012). STI/HIV Knowledge and Analysis of Reverse Mortgage 19 McDonald, P. (May 2012). Keynote Speaker. Mandating Sexual Behaviour: Evidence 40 Windsor, T.D., Mogle, J. and Payout Design. CEPAR Premarital Sex, Conception DC Private Retirement from the 2010 Transition Sliwinski, M. (July 2012). Honours Workshop. and Birth among Young Adults Provision: Questions for the to Adulthood Survey of Intraindividual Variability in Sydney, Australia. in Jakarta, Bekasi and Accumulation Phase. Greater Jakarta. European Daily Self-Efficacy Beliefs: 8 Chomik, R. (August 2012). Tanggerang, Indonesia. NETSPAR International Population Conference. Findings from an Online Study Mature-age Labour Force Population Association of Pensions Workshop. Stockholm, Sweden. of Midlife and Older Adults. Participation. CPS Seminar America 2012 Annual Meeting. Tilburg, The Netherlands. International Society for Series. Sydney, Australia. San Francisco, USA. the Study of Behavioural Development 2012 Biennial Meeting (ISSBD 2012). Alberta, USA. 131

9 Fan, X. (November 2012). 13 Hanewald, K. (November 21 Meyricke, R. (August 2012). 29 Wesson, J. (September 2012). CEPAR Retiring Cold Turkey. The 2012). The Impact of Family Hedging Using Longevity Functional Cognition and

University of Auckland Structure on Risk Attitudes Bonds: Costs, Benefits and Everyday Performance Study: ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Business School Seminar. and Financial Planning. Financial Risks. CPS Seminar Preliminary Results. Centre Auckland, New Zealand. CPS Seminar Series. Series. Sydney, Australia. for Healthy Brain Ageing Sydney, Australia. (CHeBA)/BARP Forum. 10 Hanewald, K. (September 22 Ray, P. (May 2012). Towards Randwick, Australia. 2012). Comparing Life Insurer 14 Hanewald, K. (October 2012). Ubiquitous Healthcare in the Longevity Risk Management Developing Equity Release World: eHealth Perspective. 30 Wong, A. (August 2012). Strategies in a Firm Value Markets: Risk Analysis for The University of the Impact of Pricing on Natural Maximization Framework. Reverse Mortgage and Home Sunshine Coast. Hedging of Longevity Risk. Research Seminar of the Reversion Products. Housing Queensland, Australia. CEPAR Honours Workshop.

Department of Economics, Markets Workshop, Sydney, Australia. RESEARCH OUTPUTS University of Parma. University of Tasmania. 23 Sarntisart, S. (July 2012). The Parma, Italy. Hobart, Australia. Economic Implications of 31 Zhou, Q. (August 2012). A Religious Giving. Macro Subordinated Markov Model 11 Johar, M. and Maruyama, S. 15 Keane, M. (June 2012). Income Seminar, Research School for Australian Mortality (2012). Externality and Taxation in a Life Cycle Model of Economics (RSE). Experience. CEPAR Honours Strategic Interaction in the with Human Capital. Canberra, Australia. Workshop. Sydney, Australia. Location Choice of Siblings Department of Economics under Altruism toward Seminar Series, National 24 Sherris, M. (September 2012). Parents. Presented at the University of Singapore. Portfolio Selection for Rockwool Foundation. Singapore. Insurance Linked Securities: Copenhagen, Denmark, An Application of Multiple January, 2012; the University 16 Kudrna, G. (June 2012). Criteria Decision Making. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan, Macroeconomic and Seminar at Department of February, 2012; the School of Welfare Effects of the 2010 Economics, University of Economics Internal Seminar, Changes to Mandatory Parma. Parma, Italy. UNSW, Sydney, Australia, Superannuation. CPS Seminar Series. Sydney, Australia. 25 Stevens, R. (November 2012). March, 2012; the CERGE-EI Modelling and Forecasting (Centre for Economic 17 Kumru, C. (December 2012). Healthy Life Expectancy. Research and Graduate Fiscal Policy and Behavioral CPS Seminar Series. Education - Economics Economics in DSGE Models – Sydney, Australia. Institute), Prague, Czech Social Security. The Republic, November, 2012; the Department of Public 26 Tran, C. (August 2012). Tilburg University Economics Finance, National Chengchi Market Inefficiency, Individual Seminar, Tilburg, The University. Taipei City, Taiwan. Mandate and Welfare: Netherlands, April, 2012; The U.S Healthcare Reform the University of Copenhagen 18 Kumru. C. (December 2012). 2010. Melbourne University. Economics Seminar. Behavioral Economics. Melbourne, Australia. Copenhagen, Denmark, Institute of Economics, May, 2012; the University of Academia Sinica. Taipei, 27 Sherris, M. (November 2012). Adelaide Economics Seminar, Taiwan. Solvency Capital, Pricing, and Adelaide, Australia, May, 2012 Capitalization Strategies of and the Nagoya University 19 Kumru, C. (December 2012). Life Annuity Providers. Economics Seminar, Nagoya, Fiscal Policy for Population University of Georgia, Japan, June, 2012. Ageing. The Department of Terry College of Business. Public Finance, National Georgia, USA. 12 Hanewald, K. and Sherris, M. Chengchi University. (September 2012). Longevity Taipei City, Taiwan. 28 Wesson, J. (July 2012). Issues Risk Management Research. for Managing Dementia and Presented at the Joint 20 Maruyama, S. (November Delirium in Acute Care – Seminar of the Italian 2012). Understanding Returns Occupational Therapy Role. Institute of Actuaries and the to Birthweight. The Rockwool Leadership in Dementia Care University of Turin, and Foundation Research Unit. Forum. Sydney Children’s Collegio Carlo Alberto, Copenhagen, Denmark. Hospital, Randwick, Australia. Moncalieri, Turin, Italy. MEDIA & COMMUNICATIONS

132 CEPAR 10, 439 68 MEDIA ARTICLES 14 MEDIA RELEASES 142 TWITTER

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • WEBSITE VISITS IN 2012 IN PRINT, RADIO, TV IN 2012 FOLLOWERS (29,769 PAGE VIEWS) AND ONLINE MEDIA

IN 2012 CEPAR We employed a number of strategies to engage WEBSITE E-NEWSLETTER BRIEFING PAPERS

MEDIA & COMMUNICATIONS CONTINUED TO BUILD industry, government, In April 2012, CEPAR The first edition of our AND FACT SHEETS ITS DOMESTIC AND community groups and the launched its new website monthly e-newsletter was The CEPAR Briefing Paper INTERNATIONAL general public, using both www.cepar.edu.au. In eight issued in April 2012. The series is designed to provide traditional and social media months, it has attracted e-newsletter is designed to in-depth analysis of a PROFILE AS WELL to publicise our research more than 10,000 visits provide our subscribers with particular issue for a AS RAISE AWARENESS and activities and contribute from more than 4000 users. a regular update on CEPAR’s non-academic audience. OF THE IMPLICATIONS to public debate. Offering a comprehensive activities. In addition, it Our first briefing paper, The centrepiece of our overview of our research provides our readers with an Mature-age labour force OF DEMOGRAPHIC communications strategy and activities, the opportunity to discover more participation: Trends, CHANGE. this year was the launch of website is our major detail about our researchers, barriers, incentives and the new CEPAR website. We communication platform. research projects and future potential, was also introduced two new events. We have steadily released in September and resources for end-users: built our readership over distributed to our industry, the CEPAR Briefing Paper the last eight months and government and community 38.52% NEW VISITORS series and the CEPAR Fact 4,022 VISITS now have 260 subscribers partners and made available Sheet series. Keeping our across academia, industry, on the CEPAR website. stakeholders regularly 61.48% RETURNING VISITORS government and community Further papers on Asia’s informed of our activities is 6,418 VISITS groups. A key communication ageing demographic; aged also a priority and to channel for CEPAR, we will care; and retirement incomes facilitate this we began continue to expand the are planned for 2013. publication of a monthly audience in 2013. newsletter in April 2012. CEPAR Fact Sheets provide key facts and figures on particular topics of interest to our stakeholders. The first ENGAGED | CONNECTED | DYNAMIC of these, the Aged Care Fact MULTIDISCIPLINARY | INNOVATIVE | GLOBAL Sheet, was launched at the Aged Care Policy Dialogue on 4 December. Both resources are available in print and on our website: www.cepar.edu.au/ publications.aspx. 133

The Conversation, CEPAR Women’s Weekly, Health News, The Sydney Morning Herald, Enterprise migration agreements – MEDIA Get moving, stay strong People poorly informed on ONLINE PUBLICATIONS Why won’t Australians do the work?

retirement choices ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • October 2012, p196, featuring 30 May 2012, featuring We regularly engage with the Medibank be. Magazine, Lindy Clemson. 9 April 2012, featuring Peter McDonald. media to communicate the Hazel Bateman. What you can do to reduce your The Canberra Times, risk of dementia Super Review, Driving days coming to a slow stop The Daily Telegraph, results of our research and 18 December 2012, Investors funding retirement with A super solution to some promote CEPAR events and 15 October 2012, featuring by Kaarin Anstey. property appreciation in for a shock giant needs Kaarin Anstey. 3 May 2012, featuring Michael activities. CEPAR also Knowledge@ASB, 7 April 2012, by Michael Sherris. Sherris and Katja Hanewald. provides expert commentary Australian Financial Review, Australia’s superannuation has Don’t fiddle with super, says Cooper The Daily Telegraph, the country well placed SeniorAU, and opinion in public 10 September 2012, featuring Ageing: Age-old issue needs fixing 22 November 2012, by Drop in house prices - MEDIA & COMMUNICATIONS discussions of matters John Piggott. 27 March 2012, by Lindy Clemson. John Piggott. A warning to retirees 3 May 2012, featuring relating to population ageing. Australian Financial Review, The Adelaide Advertiser, Knowledge@ASB, Michael Sherris. With experts from the fields Plenty of pluses in a longer Hitting the books to be Will we live too long to working life older and wiser enjoy retirement? of demography, psychology, The Conversation, 10 September 2012, opinion 27 March 2012, featuring 12 November 2012, by Moving in the right direction for economics, actuarial studies, piece by John Piggott. Kaarin Anstey. Michael Sherris. better aged care sociology and epidemiology, Health Matters, Townsville Sun, Australian Ageing Agenda, 25 April 2012, by Hal Kendig. CEPAR is gaining recognition Moving in the direction of Seniors an adventurous bunch Positive thinkers live longer better aged care The Conversation, among the media fraternity 7 March 2012, featuring 25 October 2012, featuring Healthy ageing, happy life: September 2012, featuring Kaarin Anstey. Kerry Sargent-Cox. as a place for reliable expert Hal Kendig. Lessons from China Sunday Mail Brisbane, Escape, commentary in these areas. Aging Well, 7 April 2012, by Colette Browning. Daily Mail UK, Backpacking room Balance, strength training in How going out on a limb can cut 19 February 2012, featuring everyday tasks can prevent falls Knowledge@ASB, Our media appearances in falls: Simple exercises by the Kaarin Anstey. State of mind: What’s really in the 15 August 2012, featuring 2012 include: elderly can reduce chance of balance in the crisis fallout? The same article was syndicated Lindy Clemson. accident by a third and appeared in the Sunday 20 March 2012, featuring Kerry ScienceAlert, 8 August 2012, featuring Herald-Sun, Melbourne. Sargent-Cox. PRINT Lindy Clemson. How to reduce falls in the elderly Knowledge@ASB, The Sydney Morning Herald, 10 August 2012, featuring China Social Security, Risk Management Today, Population ageing: How to turn Right call: Individual factors Lindy Clemson. China Rural Social Security House price risk modelling – influence price most around attitudes to older November-December 2012, insights from a study on the Mature Times, Australians? 11 February 2012, featuring featuring Lu Bei. Sydney property market, Simple exercises can reduce fall risk Michael Sherris and Katja 5 March 2012, featuring Hal Kendig Sydney Morning Herald, Money, 1 June 2012, by Katja Hanewald Hanewald. 8 August 2012, featuring and Julie Byles. Catch 82: We’re all living longer … and Michael Sherris. Lindy Clemson. Best Week Asia Pacific, The Wall Street Journal Blog, but can we afford to? News Limited, National Features, Acquisitions boost The Conversation, An age-old debate 9 November 2012, featuring Property plans built on sand profit for QBE, IAG It’s time to redefine the 2 March 2012, featuring Michael Sherris. traditional working age 14 May 2012, Michael Sherris. 7 February 2012, featuring Michael Sherris. 28 September 2012, by Australian Financial Review, Sydney Morning Herald, Michael Sherris. CurtiseCall, Siblings off the teat as Baby Rafal Chomik. Business Day, The Daily Telegraph, Sydney’s property market awakes in Bonus cut SMEs in the demographic age Congratulations for looking Australian Ageing Agenda, 2012 to find the devil is in the details 22 October 2012, featuring Peter 9 May 2012, Michael Sherris. after your staff NSW embraces its ageing population 29 February 2012, featuring McDonald. 10 July 2012, featuring Hal Kendig. Michael Sherris and Australian Financial Review, 7 February 2012, opinion Katja Hanewald. Coffs Coast Advocate, Tax fiddle risks entire piece by Hal Kendig. The Conversation, Aussie seniors suffering from a pension system The Sydney Morning Herald, Australian census: Women Knowledge@ASB, serious case of self loathing 30 April 2012, opinion Blueprint for wealth are living longer, and on less House price risk: What’s driving 25 October 2012, featuring property values? piece by John Piggott. 1 February 2012, 27 June 2012, by Rafal Chomik. Kerry Sargent-Cox. 31 January 2012, featuring Michael Herbert River Express, featuring Michael Sherris. Knowledge@ASB, The same article was syndicated Sherris and Katja Hanewald. General news, Better policy needed for and appeared in the Daily Fun high on over 50s agenda an older Australia Mercury, Coolum News and 18 April 2012, featuring June 7th 2012, by Rafal Chomik. Toowomba Chronicle. Kaarin Anstey. MEDIA & COMMUNICATIONS

134

CEPAR Population ageing and the RADIO retirement age TELEVISION

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • 2 October 2012, interviewed 2UE Radio Sydney, Rafal Chomik. ABC News Breakfast, Mornings, Aged Care Policy Dialogue ABC South East NSW, Mornings, Can we afford to live longer? 4 December 2012, National Dementia 9 November 2012, interviewed interviewed Hal Kendig. Awareness Week Michael Sherris. 27 September 2012, interviewed News Asia TV, ABC Radio Canberra, Kaarin Anstey. Singapore extends the minimum Mornings, sum topping-up scheme 2CC Canberra, Afternoons, How will we fund old age? 12 April 2012, featuring National Dementia

MEDIA & COMMUNICATIONS 9 November 2012, interviewed Michael Sherris. Awareness Week Michael Sherris. 26 September 2012, interviewed ABC South East South Australia, Kaarin Anstey. Mornings, SOCIAL MEDIA Positive ageing and mortality ABC Radio Adelaide, Preparing Australia for an 31 October 2012, interviewed CEPAR has a presence on ageing population Kerry Sargent-Cox. Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn. 13 September 2012, interviewed We regularly promote our ABC Capricornia Queensland, Hal Kendig. activities, events and research Mornings, through these social media Positive ageing and mortality ABC New England NorthWest NSW, Mornings, channels. We have seen steady 31 October 2012, interviewed Difference between Alzheimers growth in our audience Kerry Sargent-Cox. and Dementia and risk factors culminating in 142 followers at year end on Twitter from across ABC Radio National, Life Matters, 1 August 2012, interviewed Positive ageing and mortality the finance, superannuation, Kaarin Anstey. academic, public policy and aged 30 October 2012, interviewed ABC Radio, The World Today, care sectors. We will continue to Kerry Sargent-Cox. Aged care reform with CEPAR grow our social media reach in ABC Radio, Sydney News, Investigator Hal Kendig and the coming year. Positive ageing and mortality Minister Mark Butler 25 October 2012, featuring Kerry 4 May 2012, Hal Kendig. Sargent-Cox. Details about our current research ABC PM Program, and activities are available at ABC Radio, Melbourne Drive, IMF calls on governments to http://cepar.edu.au/latest- Positive ageing and mortality lift the pension age news.aspx 25 October 2012, interviewed 12 April 2012, John Piggott Kerry Sargent-Cox. and Hal Kendig interviewed. ABC Canberra, News, 6PR Breakfast with Steve Mills, Research funding grants How will changes to 20 October 2012, featuring superannuation rates affect you? Kaarin Anstey. 20 March 2012, featuring 2CC Canberra, Breakfast, John Piggott. NRMA road safety trust study ABC Canberra, Evenings 11 October 2012, interviewed and ABC 666 Canberra, Kaarin Anstey. Brain decline commences in middle age ABC Radio Perth, Breakfast, Population ageing and the 7 January 2012, interviewed retirement age Kaarin Anstey. 9 October 2012, interviewed ABC Radio National, Drive, Rafal Chomik Cognitive decline in older Australians ABC Radio Mid North Coast, The Morning Show, 6 January 2012, interviewed Kaarin Anstey. END USER LINKS

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8 Hanewald, K. and Sherris, M. 16 McDonald, P. (April 2012). 24 Woodland, A. and Kudrna, G. 6 Kendig, H. (December 2012). CEPAR PRESENTATIONS TO (April 2012). Statistical Models Housing Projections for (October 2012). Modelling the Panellist. Session One: Issues

for Postcode-Level House Australia. National Housing Workforce Impact of the Age in Delivery Modalities (Ageing ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • GOVERNMENT, INDUSTRY Price Risk for Applications in Supply Council, Department Pension and Superannuation. in the Home; Transitions; AND THE BUSINESS Banking and Insurance. of the Treasury. FaHCSIA Roundtables on Family Support). Aged COMMUNITY Financial Services Forum. Canberra, Australia. Workforce Participation Care Policy Dialogue. Melbourne, Australia. and on Health and Care. Canberra, Australia. 1 Anstey, K.J. (May 2012). 17 McDonald, P. (April 2012). Canberra, Australia. Minding your Mind - the 9 Hanewald, K. and Sherris, M. Demographic Forecasting. 7 Kendig, H. (September 2012). Evidence. COTA Australia (May 2012). Longevity Risk ANU/Ernst and Young Ageing - Social Determinants Policy Forum 2012. Management Research. Networking Forum. of Health. Academy of Canberra, Australia. PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Canberra, Australia. Social Sciences

Melbourne, Australia. BRIEFINGS, COMMITTEE Research Roundtable. END USER LINKS 2 Anstey, K.J. (October 2012). 18 McDonald, P. (April 2012). Canberra, Australia. Issues Arising from Cognitive 10 Kendig, H. (August 2012). Estimated Resident MEMBERSHIPS AND Capacities and Mental Health. Capacity to Provide and Access Population. 30th Anniversary PARTICIPATION IN 8 Kendig, H. Membership to FaHCSIA Roundtables on Services Across Australia: of ERP, Australian ROUNDTABLE AND the Older Australian Workforce Participation Aged Care Reforms. Aged Care Bureau of Statistics. Working Group. and on Health and Care. Continuum Committee for Canberra, Australia. PANEL DISCUSSIONS Canberra, Australia. Economic Development of 9 McDonald, P. (April 2012). 19 Nirmalendran, M., Sherris, M. 1 Anstey, K. (December 2012). Meeting with the Productivity Australia. Melbourne, Australia. Panellist. Session One: Issues 3 Anstey, K.J. (April 2012). Using and Hanewald, K, (April 2012). Commissioner, Alison in Delivery Modalities (Ageing Data Synthesis Techniques to 11 Kendig, H. (September 2012). A Comparison and Economic McClelland. in the Home; Transitions; Answer Policy Relevant Empowering Seniors - Analysis of International Productivity Commission. Family Support). Aged Care Questions in Ageing. Geriatric Discovering their Strengths Solvency Regimes for Annuity Canberra, Australia. Policy Dialogue. Medicine Unit VA Hospital. and Resilience, ‘Consumer- Markets. Actuaries Institute Canberra, Australia. San Francisco, USA. Directed Care’. National Council Financial Services Forum. 10 McDonald, P. (April 2012). Population Policy for of Social Services. Melbourne, Australia. 2 Anstey, K. (September 2012). 4 Booth, H. (October 2012). Australia. ACT Branch of the 4th Annual Dr Robert C.K. Appointed Committee Member Health, Care and Social 20 O’Loughlin, K. (October 2012). Australian Greens Party. Lawrence Eldercare of the Ministerial Advisory Networking. FaHCSIA Paid and Unpaid Work and Canberra, Australia. Seminar. Singapore. Council on Ageing. Roundtables on Workforce Care, Including GFC and Canberra, Australia. Participation and on Health 12 Kendig, H. (August 2012). Chronic Disease Impacts. 11 McDonald, P. (August 2012). and Care. Canberra, Australia. The Imperative for FaHCSIA Roundtables on Projections of Housing 3 Bartlett, H. (August 2012). Demand. Meeting with the Fundamental and Ongoing Workforce Participation How to Strengthen our 5 Booth, H. and Rioseco, P. (April National Housing Supply Aged Care Reform. and on Health and Care. Approach to Drive the 2012). Demographic Council. Department of the Parliamentary Library Lecture. Canberra, Australia. Growth of Regional Victoria Forecasting; and Social Treasury. Canberra, Australia. Canberra, Australia. and Elevate the Role of the Networks, Ageing and 21 Wesson, J. (July 2012). Regional Cities in the Retirement. Networks and 13 Kendig, H. (May 2012). Overview Getting Involved with 12 McDonald, P. (August 2012). State’s Future Development. Ageing Project. Presentation of research conducted by the Research in the Workplace. Regional Migration Government Briefing. at the ANU/Ernst and ARC Centre of Excellence in Agency for Clinical Innovation, Agreements. Meeting with OECD Meeting. Young Networking Forum. Population Ageing Research Allied Health Clinical Officers of the Department of Melbourne, Australia. Canberra, Australia. relating to senior Australians. Innovation and Research in Immigration and Citizenship. Department of Immigration. Older Australians Working Aged Health Forum. Sydney 4 Bateman, H. (October 2012). 6 Browning, C. and Kendig, H. Canberra, Australia. Group. Canberra, Australia. Children’s Hospital, Briefed AMP on the Influence (October 2012). Healthy Randwick, Australia. of Presentation Ageing and Health Service 14 McDonald, P. (October 2012). 13 McDonald, P. (December 2012). Arrangements on Choices of Use. FaHCSIA Roundtables Population Ageing: Mitigation 22 Piggott, J. (October 2012). Demographic Research Retirement Products. AMP. on Workforce Participation or Adaptation? FaHCSIA Mature Labour Force Relating to Indonesia. AusAID. Sydney, Australia. and on Health and Care. Roundtables on Workforce Participation. Human Rights Canberra, Australia. Canberra, Australia. Participation and on Health Commission Advisory Panel 5 Chomik, R. (November 2012). 14 McDonald, P. (December 2012). and Care. Canberra, Australia. on Positive Ageing. Sydney, Discussion about Mature-Age 7 Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. Irregular Migration Research Australia. Labour Force Participation. (October 2012). Morbidity and 15 McDonald, P. (August 2012). Advisory Group Meeting. Institute of Australian Mortality: Linking Retirement The Preliminary Results of the 23 Wesson, J. (September 2012). Department of Immigration Company Directors. Age and Mortality. FaHCSIA Survey of Partners of Functional Cognition and and Citizenship. Sydney, Australia. Roundtables on Workforce Immigrants to Australia. Performance of Everyday Canberra, Australia. Participation and on Health Department of Immigration Tasks in Older People. Aged and Care. Canberra, Australia. and Citizenship. Care Psychiatry Unit Canberra, Australia. In-service. Sydney, Australia. END USER LINKS

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CEPAR 15 McDonald, P. (December 2012). 24 McDonald, P. (November 2012). 32 Piggott, J., Browning, C., 3 Anstey, K. (October 2012). 12 Piggott, J. and Chomik, R. Panellist. Session Three: Meeting with the Director Gordon, A., Booth, H., Kendig, Preventing Dementia – The (September 2012). Mature

Issues in Policy of the United Nations H., Anstey, K.J. and Capatina, Latest Science. National Labour Force Participation. ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Implementation. Aged Population Fund (UNFPA). E. (September 2012). Gallery of Australia’s Art Australian Economic Forum Care Policy Dialogue. Canberra, Australia. Teleconference with and Dementia. 2012. Sydney, Australia. Canberra, Australia. Medibank to discuss Canberra, Australia. 25 McDonald, P. (October 2012). collaborative research. 13 Piggott, J. and Chomik, R. 16 McDonald, P. (June 2012). The Future of Infrastructure Sydney, Australia. 4 Byles, J. (August 2012). (September 2012). Mature Greater Jakarta Transition to in Australia. Interview Our Shared Future: Health Labour Force Participation. Adulthood Study. with Evans and Peck. 33 Piggott, J., Gordon, A., Care for Older People. Older Workers and Business Presentations to Indonesian Canberra, Australia. Browning, C., Byles, J. and Newcastle Hospitals Congress. Growth Conference. Government officials, Kendig, H. (November 2012). Newcastle, Australia. Sydney, Australia. 26 Piggott, J. (30 July and 26

END USER LINKS Members of Parliament and Aged Care Teleconference NGOs. Jakarta, Indonesia. October 2012). Meetings with with Medibank. 5 Chomik, R. and Piggott, J. 14 Piggott, J. and Chomik, R. AMP to discuss research Sydney, Australia. (July 2012). Mature Labour (October 2012). Asia’s 17 McDonald, P. (June 2012). programs. Sydney, Australia. Force Participation. Changing Demographic: Meeting in relation to the 34 Sherris, M. (December 2012). Australian Conference of Challenges and proposed Indonesian Gender 27 Piggott, J. (October 2012). Panellist. Session Two: Economists (ACE 2012). Opportunities. The 50th Law. Indonesian Senate. Meeting with Chris Roberts, Financing Models (Fiscal Melbourne, Australia. Anniversary Australia - Japan Jakarta, Indonesia. Director, Economics and Projections; the Role of the Joint Business Conference. Policy, PwC, to discuss Family Home). Aged Care 6 Chomik, R. (November 2012). Sydney, Australia. 18 McDonald, P. (June 2012). collaborative work on Policy Dialogue. Canberra, Introduction to Population Meeting regarding an superannuation. Australia. Ageing. The Annual 15 Sargent-Cox, K. (July 2012). ARC-funded study of the Sydney, Australia. Conference of the Victorian ARC Centre of Excellence in demography of Indonesia. 35 Wesson, J. (October 2012). Commercial Teachers Population Ageing Research Statistics Indonesia and the 28 Piggott, J. (September 2012). Working group to develop an Association (Comview201). and CRAHW Research Indonesian Population and Health Policy Roundtable: information brochure for Melbourne, Australia. Streams. Ageing Well in the Family Planning Board, Health Systems and Ageing consumers and carers, ACT: Research Showcase UNFPA. Jakarta, Indonesia. in the Asia-Pacific Region: supporting the 7 Keane, M. (June 2012). Invited Program. Canberra, Australia. Challenges and Policy implementation of the Lecture: Structural and 19 McDonald, P. (June 2012). Options for the Future. SMHSOP Acute Unit Model of Reduced Form Policy Effects. 16 Waern, R. (June, 2012). Meeting with the Canberra, Australia. Care Project. Dept of Health, Programme Evaluation for Nutrition across the Lifespan. Commonwealth Government Mental Health Unit, Specialist Policy Analysis. National The University of Sydney. Enquiry Group on Asylum 29 Piggott, J. and Bateman, H. Centre for Research Methods, Sydney, Australia. (November 2012). Meeting Mental Health Services for Seekers. Canberra, Australia. Older People Unit. University College London with pension experts from the (UCL). London, U.K. 17 Wesson, J. (April, 2012). 20 McDonald, P. (June 2012). Korean Institute of Health and Teleconference, Environment and Dementia. Membership of the Research Welfare and the Ministry of Sydney, Australia. 8 McDonald, P. (April 2012). Eastern Sydney Dementia and Advisory Committee Health and Welfare to discuss Immigration to Australia. Advisory Service, Dementia of National Seniors. developing an adequate Wentworth Forum of the Care Commitment Behaviours Canberra, Australia. ‘safety net’ pension. PUBLIC TALKS Australian Liberal Party. of Concern Session. Sydney, Australia. 1 Anstey, K. (June 2012). Canberra, Australia. Sydney, Australia. 21 McDonald, P. (June 2012). The Impact of Cognitive Preparatory discussion 30 Piggott, J. Membership of Ageing, Cognitive Impairment 9 McDonald, P. (May 2012). relating to the Migration Advisory Committee for the and Dementia on Older Address to Liberal Party Council of Australia. Review into Commonwealth Driver Safety. Older Driver students, Menzies Research Scanlon Foundation Advisory Legal Barriers to Older Task Force, NSW Centre, Parliament House. Group. Canberra, Australia. Persons Participating in Government Transport for Canberra, Australia. the Workforce or Other NSW. Sydney, Australia. 22 McDonald, P. (June 2012). Productive Work. Australian 10 McDonald, P. (December 2012). Revisions to Migration Law Reform Commission. 2 Anstey, K. (June 2012). Invited Invited Lecture: Implications Statistics. Meeting Sydney, Australia. Sax Oration, Brain Training, for Security of International with the Australian Fish Oils, Social Engagement Demographic Trends. Bureau of Statistics. 31 Piggott, J., McDonald, P., or Medications? What is the National Security College, Canberra, Australia. Kendig, H., Sherris, M., Evidence for Population- Australian National University. Cumming, R.G. and Canberra, Australia. 23 McDonald, P. (2012). Based Approaches to Sargent-Cox, K. (August Dementia Prevention? Membership of the 2012). Meeting with the Hon 11 Mitchell, O.S. (July 2012). Ministerial Advisory Public Health Association of Implications of Population Susan Ryan AO, the Age Australia. Canberra, Australia. Council on Skilled Migration. Discrimination Commissioner. Aging: Perspectives from the Canberra, Australia. Sydney, Australia. US. Australian Conference of Economists (ACE 2012). Melbourne, Australia. NEW GRANTS AWARDED IN 2012

137 CEPAR OUR RESEARCHERS ARC GRANTS OTHER AUSTRALIAN

WERE SUCCESSFUL PIGGOTT, J., ANSTEY, K.J., COMPETITIVE GRANTS ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • IN SECURING CUMMING, R., KEANE, M.P., MEROM, D., CUMMING R., ADDITIONAL KENDIG, H.L., MCDONALD, P.F, ANSTEY, K.J., RISSEL, C., SHERRIS, M., WOODLAND, A.D. CERIN, E. GRANT FUNDING ARC Post Award NHMRC Project Grant 2012: IN 2012. Funding 2012: The effectiveness of social dancing as a strategy to Total amount awarded: prevent falls in older people: NEW GRANTS AWARDED IN 2012 THE FOLLOWING $ 1,245,156 GRANTS WERE A cluster randomised ANSTEY, K.J., CHERBUIN, N. controlled trial. AWARDED TO BAMMER, G., BUTTERWORTH, P.J., BAKER, C.M, HATHERLY, Total amount awarded: RESEARCH TEAMS C.G., KELLY, P.M. $575,592 WHICH INCLUDED ARC Linkage 2012: BEI LU CEPAR CHIEF Improving methods of Academy of Social grading, transferring INVESTIGATORS OR Sciences Australia-China and facilitating translation Joint-action Exchange RESEARCH FELLOWS: of knowledge in 2012 Grant: population health. Total amount awarded: Total amount awarded: $6,500 $315,000 MCDONALD, P., HULL, T., UTOMO, I., KHOO, S.E., HUGO, G. ARC Linkage 2012: Population and development in Indonesia: Achieving greater certainty for evidence-based policy making. Total amount awarded: $495,000 CENTRE FINANCE

138 CEPAR 2012 FINANCIAL STATEMENT

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • INCOME 2012 ($) ARC Centre Grant distributed as follows: 2,004,179 University of New South Wales 1,344,910 Australian National University 330,162 University of Sydney 329,107 ARC Post Award Funding distributed as follows: 460,026 NOTE 1 CENTRE FINANCE University of New South Wales 205,026 Australian National University 255,000

NSW Science Leveraging Fund distributed as follows: 347,609 NOTE 2 University of New South Wales 160,674 University of Sydney 186,935 University of New South Wales 678,000 Australian National University 13,730 NOTE 3 University of Sydney 130,000 NOTE 4 Commonwealth Treasury 50,000 AMP 50,000 Academy of Social Sciences Australia 6,500 Emerging Researchers in Ageing Conference -2,000 NOTE 5

Total income 3,738,044

EXPENDITURE Salaries 2,254,769 Scholarships 105,324 Travel (including visitors’ expenses) 291,975 Emerging Researchers in Ageing initiative: annual contribution 69,803 Events 60,387 Other research related expenses 37,766 Recruitment and relocation expenses 47,648 Centre administration, consumables and IT maintenance 38,507 Equipment 49,336 Website, branding and marketing 94,800

Total expenditure 3,050,315

Opening balance at the beginning of 2012 1,937,499

Closing balance as at 31/12/2012 2,625,228 ESTIMATES OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE

139 CEPAR IN 2013 THE CENTRE Salaries for Early Career international hubs of ageing Researchers (ECRs) will PERSONNEL MENTORING OPPORTUNITIES research and the next

PLANS TO CONTINUE ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • continue to account for a It is anticipated that the FOR ECRS AND STUDENTS generation of researchers. TO FUND A NUMBER large portion of the Centre Centre will spend CEPAR will continue to The anticipated cost of budget. As the Centre approximately $2.9 million in support the Emerging OF SUCCESSFUL these initiatives in 2013 is reaches maturity, it is 2013 on research personnel, Researchers in Ageing (ERA) approximately $135,000. INITIATIVES expected that close to most of whom will be ECRs. initiative in 2013 as well as IMPLEMENTED IN $3 million will be spent on Of this total, about $700,000 offer workshops/master salaries and scholarship will be used to fund new classes for ECRs and PhD SUPPORT FOR

2011 AND 2012 AS CENTRE FINANCE stipends. We also staff appointed in 2013; students. We will also PARTNER AND ASSOCIATE WELL AS EXPAND anticipate investment the remainder will be organise a multidisciplinary INVESTIGATORS ITS ENGAGEMENT in new initiatives. used to support workshop for honours Funds will continue to be continuing personnel. students working in the made available to support WITH STAKEHOLDERS The activities described field of Population the involvement of our below will draw on 2013 Twenty five students will AND THE WIDER Ageing research. partner and associate income as well as funds be supported by CEPAR investigators in the research COMMUNITY. carried forward from 2012. scholarships in 2013 at Funds will continue to be program. It is anticipated a total cost of $132,000. made available to support that approximately $150,000 This includes five PhD student conference will be spent in 2013 on scholarships for new participation and provide travel and research honours students and opportunities for both assistance to support eight new supplementary research fellows and PhD the development and PhD scholarships awarded students to spend time at execution of collaborative in 2013 as well as one of the international research projects. continuing students. partner organisations with the aim of building links between these key

NOTE 1: In 2011 the ARC awarded CEPAR $1,245,156 in post award funding for the support of early career researchers 2012 - 2017. The ARC paid the full amount to UNSW on trust in 2011. Only funds available to be spent in 2012 in accordance with the proposal are shown here. NOTE 2: In 2011 CEPAR was awarded a $500,000 grant from the NSW Science Leveraging Fund. Under the Deed of Agreement with NSW Trade and Investment, the full amount of the grant was paid to the University on trust in 2011. However, release of each year’s funding allocation is contingent on approval by the funding body. Only funds released in 2012 plus interest earned on funds held at UNSW are shown here. NOTE 3: $106,420 was received in 2012. This included $92,690 that was reported as 2011 income but not received until 2012. ANU has undertaken to make a delayed payment of $116,520 for 2012 in the first quarter of 2013 (this will be recorded as income in the 2013 financial statement). NOTE 4: $149,375 was received in 2012. This included $19,375 that was reported as 2011 income but was not received until 2012.

NOTE 5: Overpayment of sponsorship funds reported as income in 2011 returned to sponsor in 2012. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE

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CEPAR planned for November. OUTREACH AND In addition we will sponsor OTHER

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • DISSEMINATION OF special sessions on About $450,000 will be spent RESEARCH FINDINGS ageing-related issues on supporting the operation Conferences and workshops at major conferences. of the Centre. Salaries for showcase the Centre’s In several cases, these administrative personnel research, increase our initiatives are co-funded account for the bulk international footprint, with other organisations. of funds. and provide opportunities

CENTRE FINANCE Leading international An estimated $20,000 will be for our industry partners experts will visit the Centre spent on data acquisition to engage with the Centre. under CEPAR’s Distinguished and a further $20,000 on A multidisciplinary Visitor Program and the development of a LIEF international population funds will be available for proposal for an Australian ageing conference, CEPAR personnel to visit panel survey to capture Analysing Population international partners and the behaviour and Ageing: Multidisciplinary present research findings at circumstances of the Perspectives and Innovation, major conferences. A series older demographic. will be mounted by the of research briefs and fact Centre in July. Also in July, sheets aimed at the wider we will join forces with the community are also planned. School of Risk and Actuarial It is expected that these Studies at UNSW to host activities will be supported the 21st Annual Colloquium by a combination of industry of Superannuation and collaborating university Researchers. To build funds. Total estimated our relationship with expenditure for outreach Zhejiang University and the activities in 2013 is Chinese Academy of Social about $600,000. Sciences, as well as create opportunities for ECRs, we will organise two workshops focused on intergenerational solidarity. In late September the Centre will co-host a conference on the Economics of Population Ageing at Harvard and, in collaboration with the Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Aging, a joint conference focused on pre-funded national pension plans is CONTACT DETAILS

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UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY NODE CEPAR (ADMINISTERING ORGANISATION) Ageing, Work and Health Research Unit

Ground Floor, East Wing Faculty of Health Sciences ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • Australian School of Business Level 3, Building M Kensington Campus Cumberland Campus C42 The University of New South Wales East Street Sydney NSW 2052 Lidcombe NSW 2141 E [email protected] E [email protected]

T +61 (2) 9931 9202 T +61 (2) 9351 9989 CONTACT DETAILS W cepar.edu.au School of Public Health Sydney Medical School AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY NODE Edward Ford Building A27 Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute The University of Sydney NSW 2006 ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences Coombs Building, Australian National University E [email protected] ACT 0200 T +61 (2) 9351 2885 E [email protected] T +61 (2) 02 6125 0124

Centre for Research on Ageing, Health and Wellbeing ANU College of Medicine, Biology & Environment Building 63, Eggleston Road Australian National University ACT 0200 E [email protected] T +61 (2) 6125 1535 142 CEPAR

ANNUAL REPORT 2012 • CREDITS

DESIGN CampbellBarnett, Sydney EDITING Anne Gordon, Director of Operations, CEPAR PHOTOGRAPHY Daniel Coelho, Natural Exposure Cath Muscat Photography Stuart Hay, Australian National University PRINT Finsbury Green