Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change
Rob McKeown Engineer, Standards & Policy Planning Engineering & Construction Division
Ontario Climate Consortium April 26th, 2017 Ontario Science Centre 2 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro 3 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Generation In Ontario, 70% of electricity is generated by Ontario Power Generation. This provincially-owned organization has generating stations across the province that produce electricity from hydroelectric, nuclear and fossil fuel sources
4 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Transmission Once electricity is generated, it must be delivered to urban and rural areas in need of power. This happens through high voltage transmission lines that serve as highways for electricity. There are approximately 30,000 km of transmission lines in Ontario and the majority are owned by Hydro One.
5 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Distribution Toronto Hydro is responsible for the last step of the journey: distributing electricity to customers in Toronto.
6 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Climate Change Adaptation
Emergency Mitigation Adaptation Management
Source: thestar.com Source: news.nationalpost.com
7 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Climate Change Adaptation
Vulnerability Vulnerability Roadmap Roadmap Assessment Assessment Development Implementation Phase 1 Phase 2
System Resilience Enhancements
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Climate Change Adaptation
July 2013 – Extreme rainfall (126mm in 2 hrs) 325,000 customers impacted Flooding of station control equipment
Vulnerability Vulnerability Roadmap Roadmap Assessment Assessment Development Implementation Phase 1 Phase 2
news.nationalpost.com
System Resilience Enhancements
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
9 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Climate Change Adaptation
December 2013 – Ice storm 300,000 customers impacted Tree limbs falling on power lines
Vulnerability Vulnerability Roadmap Roadmap Assessment Assessment Development Implementation Phase 1 Phase 2
System Resilience Enhancements
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
10 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
• Engineers Canada’s Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Engineering Protocol
• Consortium: AECOM, City of Toronto, Clean Air Partnership, Phase 1 Phase 2 Engineers Canada, Risk • Pilot case study • 2010-2050, 20 Sciences International… • Current climate climate parameters • NRCan funding only • Entire distribution • Small portion of system • Available at: distribution system • Completed June www.pievc.ca • Completed Sept 2015 2012
11 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro PIEVC Phase 2
12 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro PIEVC Phase 2
City of Toronto
13 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Opportunities
• Infrastructure strengthening • Capacity planning • Inspection and maintenance programs • Data collection and quality
14 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Ongoing System Resilience Enhancements Capital & Maintenance Programs Rear Lot Overhead Infrastructure Conversion Relocation
Tree Trimming Standards
City of Toronto Strategic Forest Management Plan 2012-2020
15 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Ongoing System Resilience Enhancements New Technologies Stainless Steel Breakaway Submersible Connectors Transformers
Solid Dielectric Submersible Transformers
www.cheryongusa.com www.carte.ca
16 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Roadmap Development
• Multi-disciplinary team • Looking at data, analysis tools, investment programs, standards,… • Develop initiatives to help make system more resilient
17 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Roadmap Development
18 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Roadmap Development 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
MAJOR EQUIPMENT TECHNICAL UPDATE SYSTEM PLANNING GUIDELINESTO INCLUDE CLIMATE SPECIFICATIONS REVIEW CHANGE • Climate data validation
• Asset lifecycle INDUSTRY REVIEW
MAINTENANCE PROGRAM REVIEW • Equipment specifications ASSET IMPACT STUDY CAPITAL PROGRAM REVIEW • Capital and maintenance programs ANALYTICAL TOOLS REVIEW
LOAD FORECAST IMPACT/SENSITIVITY • Planning data, tools, REVIEW ASSET RENEWAL OVERHEAD guidelines LINES EXITING STATIONS VALIDATE CLIMATE DATA • Design practices
• Construction standards RISK MAPS
LIGHTNING MAPPING
MONITORING RELIABILITY
19 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Validate Climate Data
20 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Validate Climate Data
21 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Validate Climate Data Historical Climate Data • Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) • Natural Resources Canada Climate Projection Data within CCHIP • Suite of models used • Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Program. • List of models available on the website
22 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Load Forecast Impact/Sensitivity • Station Load Forecast report is prepared annually • Used for the purpose of evaluating station bus capacity adequacy
75
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45 Bus Bus Peak(MVA) 40
35
30
25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Actual New Methodology 2012 Traditional
23 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Load Forecast Impact/Sensitivity • Station Load Forecast report is prepared annually • Used for the purpose of evaluating station bus capacity adequacy
75
70
65
60
55
50
Bus Bus Peak(MVA) 45
40
35
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Year
Projected Base Historical
24 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Major Equipment Specifications • Technical Specifications for Major Equipment • Codes, Standards and Regulations typically use historical values. • Review specifications, investigate impacts of climate projections and revise as necessary.
25 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Asset Impact Study
• Transformers vs temperature • Poles vs climatic loads • Overhead conductors vs climatic loads • Underground cables vs extreme rainfall • Overhead conductors vs temperature
26 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Risk Maps
• Risks maps were completed at a high level • Narrow down to asset level to be more useful to planning teams
27 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Risk Maps Transformers at End of Life for 2016 - 2020
28 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Risk Maps Transformers at End of Life for 2016 - 2020
Expected End of Life for Transformer 500
450
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350
300
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150
100
50
0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EOL from Aging EOL from Heat
29 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Lightning Mapping • Lightning strike data over the last 20 years has been mapped across the city • Correlation with system outage information will continue in 2017
30 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Industry Review
• Review practices of major utilities in Canada and USA • Paper review on industry best practices
31 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Roadmap Development 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
MAJOR EQUIPMENT TECHNICAL UPDATE SYSTEM PLANNING GUIDELINESTO INCLUDE CLIMATE SPECIFICATIONS REVIEW CHANGE • Climate data validation
• Asset lifecycle INDUSTRY REVIEW
MAINTENANCE PROGRAM REVIEW • Equipment specifications ASSET IMPACT STUDY CAPITAL PROGRAM REVIEW • Capital and maintenance programs ANALYTICAL TOOLS REVIEW
LOAD FORECAST IMPACT/SENSITIVITY • Planning data, tools, REVIEW ASSET RENEWAL OVERHEAD guidelines LINES EXITING STATIONS VALIDATE CLIMATE DATA • Design practices
• Construction standards RISK MAPS
LIGHTNING MAPPING
MONITORING RELIABILITY
32 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro 33 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro 34 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro Questions
Rob McKeown, P.Eng. Standards and Policy Planning Toronto Hydro-Electric System Limited [email protected]
35 | April 26th, 2017 Toronto Hydro