Iwrm) in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran
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A SOCIO-TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (IWRM) IN LAKE URMIA BASIN, IRAN A Thesis by MUKHTAR HASHEMI Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) at Newcastle University January 2012 A Socio-technical Assessment Framework for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran Copyright 2012 Mukhtar Hashemi A SOCIO-TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (IWRM) IN LAKE URMIA BASIN, IRAN A thesis by MUKHTAR HASHEMI Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) at Newcastle University Approved by: External Examiner, Professor J. Anthony Allan Internal Examiner, Professor Paul Younger Main Supervisor, Professor Enda O’Connell Supervisor, Dr Geoff Parkin Supervisor, Dr Jaime M. Amezaga Head of Department, Professor Jon Mills January 2012 iii ABSTRACT The main aim of this interdisciplinary research is to develop a socio-technical and institutional framework for implementing the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) paradigm by analysing how water resources can be managed in response to anthropogenic drivers (e.g. population/economic growth) and environmental pressures (e.g. climate change) within an evolving institutional set-up. Implementation of the Framework has focussed on Iran, and Lake Urmia basin as a case study, which involved a significant element of action research based upon stakeholder participation. Lack of implementation of concepts such as IWRM has been attributed to the gap between technical outcomes and policy decisions. To achieve an integrated synthesis for this interdisciplinary study, the integrated methodological framework has used four analytical components based on the IWRM concept: (1) Driver-Pressure-State-Impact Response (DPSIR); (2) Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD); (3) Integrated Socio-technical Assessment (ISTA) using modelling and Multi criteria Decision-Making (MCDA) tools; and (4) Ethics to assess water allocation decision outcomes in multitier Multi-Stakeholder Platforms (MSPs). Results from the case study show that the non-structural responses (legislations, new administrations etc.) adopted since 2003 have not guaranteed the implementation of sustainable water allocation outcomes in river basins including Lake Urmia basin. Water allocation has become highly political and caused polarisation in opinions and multiple perspectives among stakeholders underlined by diverging discourses on climate change, water and land development and irrigation water use efficiency. The participatory water allocation decision reached for Lake Urmia Basin, which included an allocation to sustain the hydrological and ecological functions of the Lake, has been re-evaluated by analysing historical climatic and hydrologic data. The outcome suggests that water availability in the basin is less than that adopted by the stakeholders based on trend analysis within the existing discourse. Therefore, the thesis demonstrates a mechanism for adaptive water allocation and demand management under an uncertain future climate which is represented through rainfall scenarios generated using a stochastic rainfall iv model. It is concluded that the participatory process has enhanced the efficacy of the water governance system, but the effectiveness of water allocation will be compromised unless an adaptive water allocation approach is implemented, and basin-wide water use efficiency measures are taken. It is recommended that modern day water and land governance has to take into account the ethical and cultural aspects of the community to form an alliance for sustainable resource use; thus, an Ethical legal framework for community-based land and water governance has been proposed. The overall integrated methodological approach provides an innovative analytical framework to understand the discursive deliberations in a complex Social-Ecological system heightened by (1) scientific uncertainty over climate variability and change; and (2) dynamic institutional transformation and evolution. v DEDICATION In memory of my beloved father who has been the inspiration for all my work To Three Women in my Life My mother Frisha who is the angle in my life My sister Saadat who I feel that our soul is inseparable My wife Leila who is the love of my life And To my adorable trio Ammar…..Mona …. and …. Ahmad Hadi vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all my supervisors: Professor Enda O’Connell, Dr Geoff Parkin and Dr Jaime M Amezaga who have support ed me with dedication and professionalism providing scholarly leadership and scientific excellence. I thank them for their kindness, friendliness and sheer determination to guide me throughout the course of my journey towards the goal of the PhD programme. I am proud to have worked under their leadership. I am indebted to Dr Jalal Attari, my consulting supervisor in Iran for all his efforts in introducing me the Iranian water sector. I am grateful to his scholarly inputs into my work. Many individuals have helped me to finish my Journey at Newcastle University. I would like to thank those how have given me an opportunity to work and have treated me with respect and trust; especially the Office of Applied Research, Iran Water Resources Management Company by partially funding my research work. I would like also, to express my appreciation to my colleagues at the Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project (CIWP) for providing the platform to carry out my work and for their unlimited support especially Dr Ali Nazaridoust, Mr Solaymani, Mr Saber Masoumi, Mr Ali Arvahi, Ms Sara Koochaki, Mr Osqoee, Mr Arabpour, Dr Mike Moser, Professor Eeloc van Beek, Mr Lotfi and Mr Saeid Ferdosi. Many people who have encouraged me to carry out the research, I have relied on their advice and scholarship, and I am grateful for all their support: Dr Ali Daemi, Dr Hedayat Fahmi, Mr Rozebeh Javaheri, Mr Mustafa Fadaeifard, Mr Anvar Jamshinejad, Mr Esfandiari, Mr Tehrani and Mr Dargahi. My sincere thanks go to all the stakeholders for their dedication and professionalism especially Water and Agriculture Working Group members. Finally, I thank my family and all my friends who morally, spiritually and financially supported me throughout my work and it is not possible to acknowledge all of them on this page. vii NOMENCLATURE AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process AJO Agricultural Jihad Organisation AMP Asiatic Model of Production BAU Business as Usual CIWP Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project COP Conference of the Parties DoE Department of Environment DPSIR Drivers (Driving forces)-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses DSS Decision Support System EA East Azerbaijan EAAJO East Azerbaijan Agricultural Jihad Organisation EAEPO East Azerbaijan Environmental Protection Organisation EARWC East Azerbaijan Regional Water Company FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FWD Fair Water Distribution (Act) FYDP Five-Year Development Plan GCM general circulation model GDP Growth Domestic Product GEF Global Environmental Facility GHGs greenhouse gases GIS geographical information system GWP Global Water Partnership HTO Heritage and Tourism Organisation IAD Institutional Analysis and Development IDA Institutional Decomposition and Analysis IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISTA Integrated Socio-technical Assessment viii IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management IWRMC Iran Water Resources Management Company JWF Japan Water Forum KAJO Kurdistan Agricultural Jihad Organisation KEPO Kurdistan Environmental Protection Organisation KRWC Kurdistan Regional Water Company LUB Lake Urmia basin MCDA Multi-Criteria Decision-making Analysis MENA Middle East and North Africa MJS Ministry of Jihad-e- Sazandegi (Construction Jihad) MoAJ Ministry of Agricultural Jihad MoE Ministry of Energy MoM Minute of Meeting MP Member of Parliament MSP Multi-stakeholder Platform NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NRWMO Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organisation RWC Regional Water Company SES Social-Ecological System SYDP Seven-Year Development Plan ToR Terms of Reference UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WA West Azerbaijan WAC Water Allocation Code (2008) WAD Water Allocation Directive (2003) WAM water allocation model WAP Water Allocation Permit ix WBM water balance model WAAJO West Azerbaijan Environmental Protection Organisation WAEPO West Azerbaijan Environmental Protection Organisation WANA West Asia and North Africa WARWC West Azerbaijan Regional Water Company WPAC Water Policy and Allocation Commission WAWG Water and Agriculture Working Group WJF World Justice Forum WRS Water Resources System WRWW Water Resources and Water and Wastewater x TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ..................................................................................................................... iii Dedication ................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... vi Nomenclature ....................................................................................................... vii Table of Contents ..................................................................................................... x List of Figures .........................................................................................................