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Excerpt from a Transcript of CNN's Weekly GPS Show Hosted by Fareed Zakaria 8 March 2015

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Excerpt from a Transcript of CNN's Weekly GPS Show Hosted by Fareed Zakaria 8 March 2015 Excerpt from a Transcript of CNN's weekly GPS show hosted by Fareed Zakaria 8 March 2015 FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST: For more on Iran's nuclear ambitions and Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech to Congress, and much more, I have a terrific panel joining me today. Anne-Marie Slaughter was the director of policy planning at the State Department in President Obama's first term. She is now president and CEO of the think tank New America. Joseph Nye is a former assistant secretary of defense, former dean of the Kennedy School of Government, former professor of mine, and long-time professor at Harvard University. He is the author of the new book, "Is the American Century Over?" Bret Stephens is a Pulitzer Prize winning columnist for The Wall Street Journal. And Peter Beinart is a professor at the City University of New York and a CNN political commentator. ZAKARIA: Imagine that the deal falls through. What do you think is a - is the reaction? Imagine that Bibi gets his wish, that the deal is rejected by the United States. What do you think would be the reaction of the Europeans, the Chinese, the Russians? I mean, when you were director of policy planning, these were your counterparts, you were dealing with them. What's their attitude? ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, NEW AMERICA CEO: I think that's the worst outcome, is that there's no deal and it's because of the United States, because at that point, this coalition that we have pretty miraculously kept together, even the Chinese and the Russians and the Europeans, to keep sanctions on Iran, that coalition will fall apart. It will be seen that there was a deal, that the deal was imperfect, but much better than no deal, that the United States, at the behest of Israel, blocked that deal and at that point, our competitors, other nations will lift their sanctions and we're going to be stuck with ours and with the ability of the Iranian government to continue progressing toward a nuclear weapon. BRET STEPHENS, WALL STREET JOURNAL COLUMNIST: Yeah, but there’s - look, there's no zero hour in diplomacy. There was attempted negotiations in 2009, again in 2010, '12. And so if this - if this deal falls through, at some point, people will regroup and rethink. And the best thing that can happen, quite frankly, now that oil is worth half as much as it was when these negotiations began, is that you can renew the kinds of serious economic pressure on the Iranians that will make them rethink this. And by the way, I think this deal suffers from this tremendous defect of the sunset agree - of the sunset provision, telling the Iranians that in 10 years, they're in the free and clear when it comes to building any kind of nuclear infrastructure… ZAKARIA: But it was never - it was never going to be a permanent deal in perpetuity. There was always going to be some time... STEPHENS: No, but look... ZAKARIA: - timeline. STEPHENS: - this began with discussions of 20 years, even generations. Ten years is literally… SLAUGHTER: Yeah, but this began… STEPHENS: - is literally nothing... (CROSSTALK) SLAUGHTER: But this began... (CROSSTALK) STEPHENS: The goal posts have just retreated, and the West keeps moving towards the Iranian position. ZAKARIA: Anne-Marie? SLAUGHTER: The goal posts have moved precisely because we have not been willing to agree to a deal that would freeze it where it was. So they've gotten steadier - steadily more - closer to getting a nuclear weapon, more centrifuges, more enriched uranium. And if we don't get a deal, there's nothing to stop them… ZAKARIA: Peter? PETER BEINART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: By the time we go to the next round of negotiations, they will be even closer, and whether oil prices stay low or stay strong, there is not the appetite for this kind of massive economic pressure in other countries that are not as ideologically opposed to Iran as us, that are more dependent on Iranian oil. To imagine that we can get, not back - not just back to this coalition, but to a much stronger coalition, and that we will be able to retard the progress Iran has made in the interim, I just don't know anyone who's seriously studied either Iranian politics or global politics vis-a-vis the other major powers in the world who thinks that's possible. ZAKARIA: Joe, what do you think is the likelihood of these sanctions being able to stay in any event? I mean sanctions notoriously get leaky after a while. JOE NYE, AUTHOR, “IS THE AMERICAN CENTURY OVER?”: They'll get leaky, but I think if a deal falls through and it's regarded as our fault or Israel's fault, I think they're not just going to leak, the boat’s going to sink, as Anne-Marie said. I think the key question for... ZAKARIA: Because the coun - the countries will openly say we're not enforcing the sanctions? NYE: Yes. And - but I think the key question for Bret that I'd be interested in his reaction is if you really thought that low oil prices and a hope for a continuation of sanctions would get you to zero centrifuges, then I might be willing to go along with that. Do you think that's really plausible? ZAKARIA: And we are going to hold that thought... ZAKARIA: - because we are going to take a break, and Bret Stephens is going to answer Joe Nye's question when we get back. ZAKARIA: And we are back with Anne-Marie Slaughter, Joseph Nye, Bret Stephens and Peter Beinart. In the interests of that handful of people who have not sat through the commercial, Joe, what was the question you were posing? NYE: Well, the question I was posing for Bret was - and it's a serious question, not a setup of any sort - is do you think you can, under the pressure of low oil prices and sanctions which may be leaky, but we're hoping some of it will hold, do you think you can get to a situation where the Iranians really go toward zero centrifuges? STEPHENS: Yes, I do… ZAKARIA: And - OK, and let me just throw in a few facts. The Iranian program is not 36 years old, it was started by the Shah of Iran under American prodding. It is a nationalistic program. There are good polls that show the nuclear program in Iran is popular. They've withstood 36 years of sanctions. They withstood the Iran-Iraq War. You still think a few more sanctions will get them to zero? STEPHENS: No, not just sanctions. There are all kinds of other pressures. But one of the reasons why the Iranian program only stopped, at least the nuclearization side of their program, only stopped in 2003 was the coincidence of the high point of American power and the serious threat that the regime faced. Basically they found themselves put to the choice, have a nuclear program or keep - or keep the regime. So when the - when the choices were that stark, they in fact, moved. SLAUGHTER: So we're not going to topple the regime, so they're not going - they don't face that pressure. And we're essentially either going to have no deal or a deal that stops things and is at a better position. ZAKARIA: And I have to say, threatening to topple the regime is probably the surest path to ensuring that they want nuclear weapons, because that's the one insurance policy... STEPHENS: But you have to... ZAKARIA: - they could buy. STEPHENS: - you have to exact a price on - this is a regime that is winning everywhere it looks throughout the Middle East… ZAKARIA: Let me ask you… STEPHENS: - in terms of its regional moves… ZAKARIA: Let me ask you about this because this - in your and Prime Minister Netanyahu's conception of Iran, there's this great paradox. They're winning everywhere, gobbling up other countries, but actually on the verge of collapse because of low oil pressure... STEPHENS: No, I… ZAKARIA: - low oil prices... STEPHENS: No, I… ZAKARIA: - and sanctions. STEPHENS: That’s not. No… ZAKARIA: How can both be true? STEPHENS: - that's - both - look, they are economically vulnerable. Countries that are on the march can also have genuine vulnerabilities. And right now, their great vulnerability is the collapse… ZAKARIA: Are they very strong or are they very weak? STEPHENS: They - they are economically vulnerable, but at the same time, they are playing their hands, their cards terrifically and taking advantage of an absence of American will to defend U.S. interests in Syria, in Yemen... ZAKARIA: Let's talk about that. STEPHENS: - and in Iraq. ZAKARIA: What do you think of these reports, the New York Times has a terrific one, about the fact that the U.S. is tacitly relying on Iran to battle ISIS in Iraq? BEINART: It's not surprising at all. I mean Iran and the U.S. have overlapping interests there. You know, part of what Benjamin Netanyahu was trying to say is that ISIS is the moral equivalent of the regime in Iran. That's not true. The Iranian regime is a very nasty, brutal, malevolent regime. But it is not ISIS. It is a country that has the capacity to actually be a stable democracy. If it were ISIS, there would not be 20,000 Jews living in Iran today with 11 functioning synagogues. This - there is - we have much more in common, both strategically with this government in Iran than ISIS.
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