CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CENT RE

Afghanistan Review Week 35 28 August 2012 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

This document provides a weekly overview of developments in from 14 – 27 August 2012, INSIDE THIS ISSUE with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information Economic Development on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. Governance & Rule of Law

Security & Force Protection Social & Strategic Infrastructure Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected]

fghanistan’s mineral resources continue to receive sustained media attention. The In- DISCLAIMER dependent reports that the reform and modernisation of Afghanistan’s mining laws could reportedly lead to a gold rush that could help bolster the country’s economy. The The Civil-Military Fusion Centre A proposed law would allow companies to gain mining rights over mineral deposits they discover (CFC) is an information and knowledge management organisa- and explore. At present, companies may explore Afghanistan for minerals and discover valua- tion focused on improving civil- ble deposits but are then forced to bid in an open process for the mining rights. Accordingly, military interaction, facilitating the current framework mitigates private companies’ motivation to actively seek out new min- information sharing and enhancing eral deposits. In most countries around the world, firms which invest money in mineral explo- situational awareness through the ration have the first chance to obtain the rights to the deposits they find. If the new law is ap- CimicWeb portal and our weekly proved in November, as expected, an unnamed Afghan official says Afghanistan “could end up and monthly publications. with something of a gold rush”.

CFC products are based upon and The Indian consortium that won the rights to the Hajigak iron ore deposit in central Afghani- link to open-source information stan, is on the verge of finalising its agreement with the Afghan government, according to Min- from a wide variety of organisations, ing Weekly. Under the agreement, the Indian companies will build a facility in Afghanistan ca- research centres and media outlets. pable of producing six million tonnes of steel per year. If the companies do not build and oper- However, the CFC does not endorse ate the steel plant, the Afghan government has the right to impose a cap on their iron ore ex- and cannot necessarily guarantee ports. In related news, another consortium of Indian mining and metals companies has bid on the accuracy or objectivity of these the Shaida copper deposit in the western Afghanistan province of Herat, reports Khaama Press. sources. The Afghan government has received five total bids for the deposit, which is one of four cur- rently out for tender. CFC publications are inde- pendently produced by Desk In related news, the Indian government is exploring the possibility of importing and exporting Officers and do not reflect goods for its Afghan mining ventures via the Iranian port at Chabahar rather than via Pakistan, NATO or ISAF policies or posi- reports Times. Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai also indicated that his govern- ment was looking to establish an economic zone near Chabahar, which sees as a potential tions of any other organisation. source of income amidst damaging financial sanctions. Hence, the Iranian government, during The CFC is part of NATO Allied a trilateral meeting with Afghan and Indian officials, also offered the Afghan government and Command Operations. private sector increased access to Chabahar, according to a separate India Times piece.

International sanctions against Iran have pushed some Iranians to attempt to exchange their lo-

cal currency, the rial, for US dollars in Afghanistan, writes The New York Times. Iranians re- portedly are eager to convert their money to a more stable currency after the rial lost more than half of its value in recent months. However, such currencies are in high demand and short sup- ply within Iran. UN, EU and US financial sanctions against Iran have limited the options avail- CONTACT THE CFC able to Iranians who wish to convert their assets to other currencies. For instance, the SWIFT electronic transfer system which facilitates the majority of global financial transactions severed For further information, contact: its dealing with many Iranian banks in March 2012, reports Reuters. Hence, Iranians have be-

Afghanistan Team Leader gun to turn to loosely regulated Afghan money dealers, who continue to accept Iranian rials [email protected] given that they have long been used – alongside the Afghan currency, the afghani – in western Afghanistan. The amount of rials exchanged for US dollars in Afghanistan remains unknown,

The Afghanistan Team though experts indicate it is likely not enough to have a significant impact on international [email protected] sanctions against Iran. However, American officials, in particular, are stepping up efforts to limit the practice. Trade relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan also continued to receive sustained attention. The Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) has launched a review of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APT- TA) , reports The Nation. Daroo Khan Achakzai, the acting president of the Chamber, says that the agreement continues to face chal- lenges, including the use of fragmented and un-aligned border control and customs systems in Afghanistan and Pakistan which the APTTA aimed to remove. As part of the review, the PAJCCI says that it will organise consultations with stakeholders in several loca- tions . The Business Recorder further noted that the PAJCCI’s consultations will end on 01 September and that its recommendations wil l be published thereafter.

Lastly, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) says that its Sharia-compliant loan programme has helped Afghan farmers gain access to credit and improve crop yields and quality. USAID’s Agricultural Credit Enhancement programme has thus far provided loans to 15,000 farmers in 28 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Loans given under the initiative do not involve interest payments; rather, a pre-determined fee is charged for the use of the money. To help ensure that farmers are able to pay back the loans, the USAID programme also provides farmers with technical assistance related, for instance, to marketing and exporting their produce.

Governance & Rule of Law Stefanie Nijssen ► [email protected]

ormer Taliban leader Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim has called for speeding up the “delisting” process – in which Taliban members and other insurgents are removed from UN sanctions lists – to pave the ground for peace talks in Afghanistan, Pajhwok Afghan F News reported on 13 August. Mutasim, a son-in-law of Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, was recently re- moved from the UN blacklist. On 14 August, a Taliban spokesman said the group had parted ways with Mutasim in 2010 after a Tali- ban council found him guilty of having unauthorised contact with foreign diplomats. In related news, an official with the Afghan High Peace Council, Ismail Qasemyar, said that personnel from the Afghan embassy in Pakistan recently met with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a former deputy leader of the Taliban who is now imprisoned in Pakistan, according to the Associated Press. The Pakistani government has denied that the meeting took place, though unnamed Pakistani intelligence officials say otherwise. In the past, the Afghan government has pushed for the release of Baradar and other Taliban prisoners in Pakistan to facilitate peace talks. Iranian officials have denied allegations by the Afghan intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), that Tehran was involved in the deadly, coordinated suicide bombings in Nimroz province on 14 August which left 36 dead and more than 100 injured, states Khaama Press. NDS officials said at least three Iranian citizens were arrested in connection with the attacks. The NDS officials further indicated that Afghan security forces stopped two other Iranian suicide bombers from launching attacks on festivities marking Afghan Independence Day in mid-August. Seventeen civilians were killed by Taliban insurgents in Helmand province, reportedly for attending a mixed-gender party, reports the BBC. The bodies of two women and 15 men were found by the side of a road in the Musa Qala district. They were either beheaded or had had their throats cut; some bodies showed signs of beatings and gunshot wounds. Daud Ahmadi, the provincial governor’s spokesman, said the men and women were “partying with music in an area under the control of the Taliban”. The Irish Independent reports that growing public uprisings against insurgent brutality and restrictions which started in May in Ghazni province have forced insurgents out of 50 villages and led to the reopening of shops and boys’ schools. Below are several news reports generated over the past two weeks regarding related uprisings in other provinces. . An article by Ariana News states that residents of Zerai district in Kandahar province have asked insurgents to leave their areas given that the presence of Taliban fighters can only lead to destruction. This comes as Khaama Press reported that Taliban mem- bers in Kandahar province recently forced local residents in parts of Panjwayi district to destroy newly constructed roads. The new roads reportedly made it difficult for the insurgents to hide roadside bombs. . Authorities in Ghor province say local residents in a number of districts have witnessed widespread anti-Taliban campaigns, ac- cording to Khaama Press. Officials stated the campaigns have been launched under the leadership of former Mujahideen com- manders and local residents. The same article notes that residents of Badghis province announced they will intensify the fight against insurgent groups. Badghis government spokesman Sharafuddin Majidi said former Mujahideen leaders urged the govern- ment to equip local residents with arms to aid uprisings. . Dozens of Afghan villagers in Hisarak district of Nangarhar province rose up against the Taliban on 23 August and forced them out of villages after insurgents indicated their intention to attack a district governor’s compound, states Tolo News. Insurgents have been actively targeting government sites in the district. Reports suggest that members of the Afghan National Security Forc- es (ANSF) may have also participated in the uprising. Some lawmakers in the Meshrano Jirga, the upper house of the Afghan parliament, said they believe the recent uprisings against the Taliban were dangerous and could create future problems for the government, according to Pajhwok. Lawmaker Mohammad Faizi said: “The revolt is not in the interest of the country. The history shows such movements had negative impact in the long run.” Several lawmakers told Tolo News that foreign intelligence agencies may be involved. Other lawmakers contend that Hezb-e Islami, another insurgent group, is manipulating anti-Taliban sentiment to seize power. The lawmakers called for the government to closely monitor the uprisings.

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In related news, Pajhwok reports that Hezb-e Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar directed his fighters on 19 August to avoid killing civilians , including attorneys, engineers, doctors, journalists and students. In a statement marking Eid ul-Fitr, Hekmatyar asked his fighters to expel anyone from their ranks who intimidates civilians or violates Islamic principles. He also urged Hezb-e Islami mem- bers to refrain from extorting money from ordinary Afghans.

A revised version of Afghanistan’s media law will soon be presented to the country’s parliament for review and comment, states Aria- na News. Minister of Information and Culture Sayed Makhdoom Raheen said that the new media law should be approved by the legis- lature following a one-week review period. The current media law consists of 54 articles while the draft law has 110. Civil society organisations, including media entities and non-governmental organisations, have concerns about the new law, which they believe could undermine the physical safety of journalists and limit access to detailed government information. Several articles regarding the rule of law emerged in recent weeks. An eight-year-old Afghan girl was reportedly raped in Qaisar dis- trict on 13 August, reports Khaama Press. The girl’s family filed a complaint with the Taliban and with the Afghan police. However, villagers impeded the police’s attempts to intervene. The two suspects were instead arrested by the Taliban. In Ghazni province, the Taliban shot dead a man accused of kidnapping a child from a village, according to BBC interviews with tribal elders in the area. They said that the boy’s father approached the militants for help after local authorities failed to act against the alleged perpetrator. Lastly, Pajhwok reports that a US court has indicted three individuals and the American International Security Corporation (AISC) on charges of fraud and bribery related to military procurement in Afghanistan. The US Department of Justice (DoJ) said one of the men was an activated military reservist who used his position to get information about a contract related to logistics and weapons mainte- nance support for Afghan military units. The DoJ said AISC received about USD 54 million from the contract and that the three indi- viduals charged in the case split about USD 20 million amongst themselves. In related news, Brigadier General Ricky Waddell, the chief of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) component overseeing anti-corruption efforts, known as Task Force Shafafiyat, announced that more than 100 Afghan and foreign companies had been suspended from doing business with ISAF since 2010 as a result of alleged links to corruption, according to Tolo News.

Security & Force Protection Mark Checchia ► [email protected]

n increase in “insider” or “green-on-blue” attacks have developed into a crisis, according to the Associated Press (AP). There have been at least 32 such attacks thus far in 2012, killing 42 members of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). A Eleven of these 32 attacks took place in August alone. These figures mark an increase from 2011, when 21 insider attacks killed 35 service members, and from 2010, when 11 insider attacks killed 20. A number of statements were issued in recent weeks regarding the rising number of insider attacks. . Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar said on 16 August that his fighters have infiltrated the Afghan National Secu- rity Forces (ANSF) and were responsible for the insider attacks, reports the AP. Mullah Omar also called on his fighters to pro- tect the life and property of the Afghan people. . ISAF Commander General John Allen said that stress from fasting during Ramadan may have been a factor in the insider attacks, according to National Public Radio. The AP quoted Allen as saying “[i]t’s a very tough time for these [Afghan] forces” given that during Ramadan they are obliged to fast during the day amidst the stifling summer heat and the peak of the fighting season. General Allen also disputed Mullah Omar’s claim that the majority of attacks can be attributed to Taliban infiltrators; the ISAF Commander instead noted that only about 25% of insider attacks can be linked to the Taliban, states Reuters. . Afghan government officials asserted on 22 August that insider attacks are the result of Afghan soldiers and police being brain- washed by agents of foreign intelligence services. General Allen said he had no indication that foreign intelligence services were involved in the attacks but said he is “looking forward to Afghanistan providing us with the intelligence that permits them to come to that conclusion”.

The AP notes that insider attacks have spread across the country into Paktika, Helmand, Kandahar, Farah and Laghman provinces. On 19 August, in Spin Boldak of Kandahar province, an Afghan police officer opened fire inside a police station, killing a US soldier and injuring another. As a result of the incident, the district police chief was dismissed, Pajhwok Afghan News reported. This is believed to be the first Afghan official dismissed over the insider attacks. Two US soldiers were killed by a member of the Afghan army in Lagh- man on 27 August. Augmented security measures have been introduced to counter insider attacks. General Allen ordered his soldiers in Afghanistan to be armed at all times, Tolo News reported. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced on 21 August that the United States is increas- ing the number of counter-intelligence personnel in Afghanistan to identify possible attackers. Afghan officials reportedly are strengthening measures to reduce insurgent infiltration, according to The Washington Post. International and Afghan special operations forces have combined under a single command in order to improve coordination and pave the way for the possibility of a continued US military presence after 2014, when most American forces will withdraw, USA Today reports. The joint command “demonstrates our commitment to an enduring presence beyond 2014”, according to US Army Lieutenant

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Col onel Todd Harrell, spokesman for US special operations forces in Afghanistan. While a formal decision on the composition of any future US military presence in Afghanistan is still pending, experts say any residual US force would likely include special operations forc es to train Afghan forces and assist in raids. The recently created joint command includes special operations forces from several branches of the US military and elite forces from 23 countries in and the .

Officials from ISAF and the Afghan Ministry of Interior (MoI) decided that oversight responsibilities for private security companies (PSC) will soon be handed over to the Afghan police, according to Ariana News. Currently only 37 PSC’s remain active in Afghani- stan out of the 160 that formerly operated there. Many of the others were disbanded, and their responsibilities were transferred to the Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF), an Afghan government entity. APPF Deputy Minister Mujtaba Patang said on 23 August that the APPF is ready to provide security for NATO military bases throughout the country stating that APPF personnel are vetted and confirmed by tribal leaders and provincial council members and are less likely to be associated with the insurgency, reports Tolo News. President Hamid Karzai appointed the former Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak as his senior military advisor, according to Tolo News. Wardak will focus on the reform, development and training of the ANSF. Wardak had stepped down from his role as defence minister earlier in August after losing a vote of no-confidence within the Afghan parliament, says Reuters. A British Royal Air Force (RAF) team using the Reaper drone system discovered two trucks carrying a major load of drugs in Hel- mand, MoD Oracle reported. Using video from the Reaper, the RAF team noted that the vehicles seemed overloaded for their apparent capacity. The ANSF and US Marines intercepted the shipment and upon inspection discovered 1,280 kg of dry opium and 59 kg of refined heroin. Four weapons were also confiscated, and the drug traffickers were detained. The US street price for the confiscated heroin alone – excluding the dry opium – is estimated at USD 14.75 million. The RAF team was also recently involved in interdicting two other vehicles carrying drugs.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected]

elayed dam projects were the subject of recent scrutiny, according to a number of reports. Wasdam reports that six major dam projects with a combined cost of more than USD 4 billion are currently underway. Yet many have reportedly been held up by D insecurity and a lack of funding. In related news, members of the Meshrano Jirga, the upper house of the Afghan legislature, have raised concern over the lack of progress on the third turbine at the Kajaki dam in Helmand province, writes Pajhwok Afghan News. International and Afghan government stakeholders have been attempting to install the turbine at the Kajaki hydro-electric plant for years. Members of the Meshrano Jirga felt that improved security in Helmand would facilitate progress on the installation, but Minister of Energy and Water Ismail Khan says security conditions are still not sufficient. Mohammad Daud Ahmadi, a spokesperson for the governor of Helmand, instead placed the blame on what he described as a lack of attention from the Ministry of Energy and Water. The dam’s electrical output would enable more regular energy supply to southern and south-western Afghanistan if the third turbine was installed and if other infrastructure was in place to handle the increased power. Wadsam reports that Afghanistan’s mountains and rivers are the source of a large volume of water, much of which is reportedly used by neighbouring countries rather than by Afghans. Iran, in particular, is concerned about losing access to water sources which it shares with Afghanistan. For instance, Iran has been implicated in attempts to stop work on the Kamal Khan and Bakhshabad Abad dams in western Afghanistan, which would reduce its access to rivers originating in Afghanistan, as noted in the CFC report on “Afghanistan’s Transboundary Water Resources”. In related news, residents of Parwan province in central Afghanistan are planning to hold a demon- stration to protest their lack of access to clean drinking water. Many in the provincial capital of Charikar claim that the government recently extorted money from them in exchange for unrealised promises to improve water supply. The Afghan government’s Central Statistics Organization has raised concern over the country’s high birth rate, according to Wadsam. The average Afghan woman gives birth to five children, and the Afghan population is currently believed to increase by approximately half a million people per year. Experts note that population growth rates are not inherently problematic but that they can yield social and economic difficulties if the country is not able to provide education, jobs and healthcare to meet the rising demand. A failure to meet the needs of an increasingly large youth population could reportedly contribute to rising crime and insecurity (see the October 2011 CFC report on “The Youth Bulge in Afghanistan”). Population growth reportedly stems from cultural preferences for large fami- lies and objections to contraception. About 300 women from various districts staged a peaceful protest asking militants to allow women’s schools to operate safely and not stand in the way of women’s rights, according to Pajhwok. The rally was arranged by the Afghan Sisters Unit and the Women’s Af- fairs Department. The heads of these two entities also presented a resolution calling for women’s inheritance rights, the elimination of and greater female representation in the peace process. Shabana, one of the participants, told Pajhwok that the goal of the rally was to send a clear message that women would persist in seeking education and would not be deterred by militants. A number of young women in Ghazni province called for the creation of additional recreational areas for women so they are not obli- gated to spend holidays like Eid ul-Fitr confined to their homes, according to Ariana News. A “lady’s garden” was built last year in

28 August 2012 Page 4 the Ali Lala area, 3 km from Ghazni city. However, the remoteness and insecurity of the area have made it difficult for women to visit the park. Some women in the area want the government to build parks at appropriate locations and inside the city.

Lastly, concerts drew attention in recent weeks. Tolo News says that a concert featuring popular Afghan singer Shafiq Mureed was cancelled after a number of religious clerics called it as un-Islamic and urged the local residents to prevent it from being held. Mureed said he would have proceeded with the concert but decided against doing so given that the attendees would face risk of attack. In addi- tion, The Guardian reports that organisers are planning to hold the second Sound Central music festival in Afghanistan. Last year’s Sound Central event was the first music festival in Afghanistan for decades, and this year’s performance will feature well-known in- ternational music groups, including Britain’s Asian Dub Foundation. With as many as two of every three Afghans under the age of 25, music reportedly resonates with a large proportion of the population.

Humanitarian Update

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that, as of 22 August, only one third of the money requested under Afghanistan’s Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP) has been received. The CAP included a total hu- manitarian aid request of USD 448 million, though only USD 153 million has been provided thus far in 2012. The Japanese gov- ernment has contributed more than a third of the total amount provided this year. The OCHA document also says that certain prior- ities, particularly health, food security, nutrition, water/sanitation and coordination, have been significantly under-funded. For in- stance, of the USD 29.1 million requested for health, only USD 3.7 million has been provided. Dawn reports that a warehouse primarily filled with tents, medicines and other relief supplies for Afghan refugees was destroyed in a fire on 22 August. The warehouse, located near Quetta, was run by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UN- HCR) and also contained items for flood victims in Balochistan. While UNHCR and local officials have noted that the cause of the fire will not be clear until a thorough investigation is conducted, locals in the areas tell Dawn that they saw a man throw something towards the building shortly before they noticed it was on fire. The US State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration (PRM) released a document indicating that it would be handing over its healthcare facilities in Afghanistan to that country’s Ministry of Public Health by July 2013. The clinics in ques- tion were primarily used to meet the needs of returning Afghan refugees from neighbouring countries.

Recent Readings & Resources

. “Prospects for Indian-Pakistani Cooperation in Afghanistan”, Center for Strategic and International Cooperation, August 2012, by Sadika Hameed. . “Country Programme for Afghanistan: 2012-2014”, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, August 2012. . “Afghanistan: 2012 CAP Funding update (as of 22 Aug 2012)”, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 23 August 2012. . “Afghanistan: The Timetable for Security Transition”, UK House of Commons, July, 2012, by Louisa Brooke-Holland and Claire Taylor. . “Justice and State-Building in Afghanistan: State vs. Society vs. Taliban”, The Foundation, August, 2012.

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