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Wind Parks 4000 7500 1453 Bio Mass 200 350 45 Geothermal 20 120 0 TERNA ENERGY SA Price: € 2,40 Cap: € 262,4 M Target: € 2,90 Cap: € 317,4 M TENERGY GA Previous € 2,50 Potential 21% Industry: Energy November 05, 2012 Investment Opinion: ACCUMULATE (4/5) PRICE & VOLUME vs ATHEX INDEX 160.0 1,000,000 900,000 TERNA ENERGY SA 140.0 800,000 120.0 700,000 TENERGY GA /TENr.T 100.0 600,000 80.0 500,000 400,000 60.0 300,000 40.0 Current Price (05/11): €2,40 200,000 20.0 100,000 Target Price: €2,90 0.0 0 Upside potential:21% Volume TERNA ENERGY SA ATHEX INDEX We update the coverage of Terna Energy with an ACCUMULATE recommendation since Terna Energy SA produces energy from Renewable Energy our two-stages DCF model leads to a value of €317,4 M, that corresponds to a price of €2,90 per share, revealing a 21% upside potential. The company is among the three most Sources The company constructs and operates wind farms, important companies of the sector and has recently achieved a significant expansion abroad. The previous year was one of the most important in the company’s history with small hydroelectric plants and integrated process units for the more than 130 MW of RES to have been installed within 2011 and 203MW within 2012. UPDATED COVERAGE overall management and energy utilization of wastes and •TERNA Energy S.A. was incorporated in 1997 parent company TERNA S.A. to undertake the TERNA Group's development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) generation activities, in light of the opportunities arising from the Kyoto Protocol and the subsequent EU and national legislation biomass. prioritizing increased reliance on RES-generated electricity. The company focuses on developing wind power, and through locating and measuring wind conditions for suitable sites throughout Greece. SHARE DATA •The first wind park (located in Evia) entered into operation in 2000, with an installed capacity of 11,22 MW. In the following years, the installed capacity of the wind parks increased rapidly as the expansion # Shares: 109,319,073 (Common Registered) of the wind park portfolio continued. In 2004, they began exploring opportunities in RES markets outside of Greece, and began the process of identifying suitable sites for wind projects principally in Capitalization (€ M): 262.37 the Balkans and China, and then in Central Europe in 2005. They began diversifying into different RES segments by starting the construction of the first two small hydroelectric plants in 2006. Currently, 200d Mov.Avrg.Price(€): 1.46 they are also expanding their business in Solar and Biomass projects. •Its early entry into Greek RES allowed Terna Energy to secure some of the most attractive sites. 200d Mov.Avrg. Volume (#): 125,441 Successful development has made Terna Energy the second biggest wind park operator in Greece behind EDF with 263 MW in operation and 235 MW under construction. The well-diversified pipeline % Price change since 31/12/2011: 70.37% of domestic projects reaches 6GW. •76 MW are in operation in Poland while other 8MW are under construction. •30 MW are in operation in Bulgaria while other 10MW are in progress. 52 wk high: 2.78 (08/10/2012) •The company is active in the US market after purchasing licenses for projects of 138MW , which are currently in trial operation. 52 wk low: 0.8063 (06/06/2012) •It also operates 15MW of hydro parks and 6MW of P/V parks in Greece. •The company has announced a target of 950 MW installed or at late stages of construction by 2014, Major Shareholders: 72.60% in Greece and abroad, which is considered realistic despite the current financing difficulties. •Gross Dividend of €0,064 for FY:11. Capital return of €0,047Μ was also paid out. Own Stocks: 0,75% OVERVIEW OF H1:12 RESULTS Free Float: 26.55% .Sales of €55,2M in H1:12 increased by 97,8% in comparison to H1:11, mainly due to almost double energy sales, setting a new quarterly record for the company. .69,3% of total sales comes from the Energy sector (€38,2M). This sector‘s results show an increase of VALUATION (Working Hypotheses) 91,2% because of the addition of new capacity within H2:11 and in H1:12. .The other 30,7% of total sales comes from the sector of Constructions (€16,9M).This sector‘s results Risk Free Interest Rate (Rf): 7.50% show a increase of 114% in comparison to last year, although it is affected by the general recession in the constructions sector in Greece and abroad. WACC: 9.66% .Sales in Greece constitute the 88,2% of Total Sales while Sales from abroad the other 11,8%. .Gross profit at €23,6M. This corresponds to a gross margin of 43,8% much lower than last year 5-Year CAGR of EBIT 36,16% (47,1%). This is because of the higher participation of Construction sector in total sales in H1:12. .EBITDA of €27M increased by 103,5% compared to H1:11, mainly due to the increased sales of the Perpetuity after 2021: 1,5% energy sector, setting a new record for the company. EBITDA margin of the Energy sector increased also to 70% from 61,7% in prior period due to the increased capacity. SECURITIES 5-Year CAGR of Sales: 26,8% .EBIT of €17,7M (Constructions €0,17M, Energy €17,6M), increased by 92,7% while EBT stand at €11,5M increased by only 13,8%. This result can be attributed to increased financial expenses than the Effective Tax Rate 11: 26.11% prior period. .EATAM of €7,9M increased by 13,4%. Minorities rights decreased to €0,3M from €0,45M. .EAT of Energy sector at €8,34M while these of Constructions sector stand at €-0,12Μ. FINANCIAL DATA .Negative operational cash flows at €6,15Μ from €8,2M in prior period due to higher working capital needs. € M 2010 A 2011 A 2012 E 2013F .Cash remained at high levels despite an expected decrease to €112M. The cash position of the company seems high enough to finance a big part of the under construction projects. SALES 59 76 119 154 .Total debt at €383,3M and net debt at €271,6M. Y-o-Y changes 2010 A 2011 A 2012E 2013F EBITDA 21.4 35.7 65.7 100.3 Total Τurnover -19,52% 28,97% 56,72% 29,16% EBITDA -9,02% 49,55% 83,79% 52,64% EATAM 9.6 14.7 20.7 35.3 EBT -47,82% 21,99% 36,51% 62,25% EAT & Minorities -39,66% 53,42% 40,67% 70,65% MERIT Securities S.A., Research & Analysis Department 3 Souri str., 105 57, Tel: 210.36 71 800, Fax: 210.36 71 830, E-mail: [email protected] MERIT Chris A. Samothrakis [email protected] , Nikolaos V. Christodoulou [email protected] 2/17 SWOT ANALYSIS Strengths FUTURE TARGETSWeaknesses o Experience in the market of RES since it has o Little potential of the construction sector. been active for many years in the market. oModerate diversification of activities. o Specialization in the market of RES. oLarge pipeline of projects. oRecent expansion abroad. oHigher Load Factors than the market average. Opportunities Threats o Large growth in Renewable Energy Sources o Delays in payments from Desmie. market which is in its infancy in Greece. oLimits set by government in installed capacity. oEntry to new Energy Sources such as oAn unfavorable change in tariffs. Geothermal energy and Biomass. oLack of liquidity in Greek banks may affect the financing of local projects. It also affects the height of interest rates. INVESTMENT RISKS -LIQUIDITY RISK: Low due to the kind of the product. The only threat comes from delays in payments from Lagie (former Desmie). -INTEREST RATE RISK: Medium but it has been increasing due to new debt that was be received. The company has been able to borrow at relatively low cost till a few years ago. Interest rates are increasing, however, due to the lack of liquidity in the Greek banking system although EURIBOR is at rather low levels. -CREDIT RISK: Medium due to a relative small number of clients. It has increased recently due to the liquidity problems of Desmie. -CURRENCY RISK: Medium for the moment. The expansion of the company abroad has increased this risk. The major currencies of interest are: Polish Zloty, Bulgarian leva and US Dollar. -PRICE RISK: Low, as far as Greece is a member of EU. It will become very high in the adverse scenario of Greece exiting EU. SHAREHOLDER’S STRUCTURE SECURITIES MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS FREE FLOAT SHAREHOLDER'S STRUCTURE % GEK TERNA 50,00% PERISTERIS G. 22,57% Source: ASE, The Company MERIT 3/17 ENERGY -SECTOR ANALYSIS Greek Energy market’s liberalization began in 1999 but it is still an oligopoly with one major player, the Public Power Company. The largest part of the produced energy comes from thermal power plants, mainly from coal (lignite) units which are not friendly to the environment while only a small part is produced through renewable sources plants. Greece currently covers around 4-6% of its gross electricity consumption by RES but these numbers will definitely increase substantially in the th th following years. Up to end 2011 Greece holds the 11 place among the European Union countries and 18 in the World. According to a EU directive, RES must cover 20% of total energy consumption by 2020. 2511 MW of RES were installed in Greece up to the end of 2011 while it is estimated that €1,35B were spent in 2011 for the installation of 775 MW of RES projects.
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