Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, July 15

Headlines:  Israeli Leaders Condemn Nice Attack, Offer Condolences to France  Police Pushing Harow to Incriminate Netanyahu  Shin Bet Clamps Down on Palestinians Seeking to Leave Gaza  Israel Slams EU Revision to UNESCO Jerusalem Proposal  Intelligence Minister Katz: Destroy Hezbollah—Through Peace  West Bank Attack on Border Police Near Refugee Camp Thwarted  Iran Accuses US of Lackluster Implementation of Nuclear Deal

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “Egypt Says the Ball Is in Netanyahu’s Court”  By Barak Ravid, Diplomatic Correspondent, Ha’aretz  Al-Monitor: “Israel’s New Defense Minister Draws Up Plan to Topple Hamas”  By Ben Caspit, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts July 15, 2016

BICOM Israeli Leaders Condemn Nice Attack, Offer France Condolences Israeli leaders have condemned last night’s terror attack in the French city of Nice, after a truck was ploughed into a crowd watching a Bastille Day fireworks display, killing at least 84 people. Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin sent a letter of condolence to his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, saying: “It is with pain and sorrow that I must once again write and express my deepest condolences, and those of all the Israeli people.” He added: “Israel stands with France and the Israeli people stand with the French people, shoulder to shoulder in the face of this terrible evil… We must work united to reach the terrorists, their supporters and backers, wherever they may hide.” See also, “Truck Attacker in France Identified as Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, 31” (Washington Post)

Jerusalem Post Israeli Police Pushing Harow to Incriminate Netanyahu The Israel Police stepped up its investigation against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday after the anti-corruption unit Lahav 433 detained his former chief of staff, Ari Harow, for 15 hours. Harow was taken for questioning immediately upon his arrival at Ben-Gurion Airport from a business trip to the US. After his interrogation, Harow was confined to house arrest for five days. See also, “Netanyahu Aide Detained in Israel Fraud Probe” (Arutz Sheva)

Ha’aretz Shin Bet Clamps Down on Palestinians Seeking to Leave Gaza At the initiative of the Shin Bet security services, restrictions have been tightened on Palestinians seeking to depart the Gaza Strip and on imports permitted into the territory. These restrictions cut into the Strip’s already limited economic activity. Those directly harmed by the change for the worse are the merchants and importers, including the veterans who employ hundreds of people; senior officials in charge of infrastructure and rehabilitation; doctors and academics who take in-service training courses and exams in the West Bank; the ill; those with families abroad and in the West Bank; and workers for international humanitarian groups and diplomatic missions. The change is a clear reversal of what had been a trend of gradually easing restrictions in the past six years, a policy that had been largely aimed at the Palestinian business sector.

Times of Israel Israel Slams EU Revision to UNESCO Jerusalem Proposal European Union revision to a controversial resolution by the UN’s cultural body on the Old City of Jerusalem had Israel “concerned” on Thursday, with the Foreign Ministry saying the new text still downplays Jewish historical ties to its holiest site. A statement from the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem expressed “concern’ over the EU revision to the UNESCO resolution, which it said “nullifies the bond and relationship of the Jewish people to the Temple Mount.” See also, “EU UNESCO Draft Also Disregards Jewish Connection to Temple Mount” (Ynet News)

Arutz Sheva Intelligence Minister Katz: Destroy Hezbollah—Through Peace In an op-ed in Newsweek, Israel Intelligence Minister Israel Katz detailed his plan for ruining Hezbollah, without devastating Lebanon, Hezbollah's main base-of-operations. Katz points out how Hasan Nasrallah, the organization's leader, openly admitted to broad financial support from Iran last month. However, Katz feels that Nasrallah's bluff of power in his speech was just that - a bluff. "Hezbollah has lost over a thousand of its fighters in Syria and is more exposed than ever to political and economic pressure, which now must be leveraged against it," Katz points out. Although Hezbollah has been trained and armed by Iran with hundreds of thousands of missiles, Katz believes they are vulnerable to a political strike, if the global community acts now. See also, “It's Time for the International Community to Put the Pressure on Hezbollah and Iran” (Newsweek)

Ma’ariv West Bank Attack on Border Police by Refugee Camp Thwarted An attack was thwarted again yesterday when a Palestinian terrorist armed with a knife approached a Border Police force at the entrance to the Shuafat refugee camp a day after a vehicle-ramming attempt at the a-Ram checkpoint near Jerusalem. IDF forces succeeded in preventing the attack. The police said that the injured terrorist was transferred to Magen David Adom and will be questioned further.

Foreign Policy Iran Accuses US of Lackluster Implementation of Nuclear Deal Thursday marks the one year anniversary of the nuclear deal between Iran and the United States and other world powers. Whether the agreement is working depends on who you ask. To mark the day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, released dueling statements with opposite takes on the pact. Lew insists the deal, meant to give Iran some economic relief in exchange for curbing its nuclear program, is working. Zarif begs to differ. “Iran has benefited economically under the deal, significantly increasing its oil sales, opening more than 300 new bank accounts with foreign banks, negotiating billions of dollars of new lines of credit, and seeing new planned foreign direct investment increase by more than $3 billion,” Lew said in a statement Thursday morning, adopting an oddly cheerleading role for Iran’s benefits from the deal. Zarif took to Twitter to dispute Lew’s claims, implying that Washington is not living up to the terms of the agreement. He accused the United States of “short-sighted bragging” and “lackluster implementation of obligations.” See also, “Iran Slams US for 'Lackluster Implementation' of the Nuclear Deal” (Times of Israel)

Ha’aretz – July 15, 2016 Egypt Says the Ball Is In Netanyahu's Court

Israeli prime minister sees Cairo’s peace initiative as preferable to the French alternative, with U.S. Secretary of State Kerry encouraged by initial efforts. But will Netanyahu follow through this time?

By Barak Ravid  On Sunday evening, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was escorting Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry to his car after their meeting, the two paused momentarily in front of a television screen on the patio of the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem to check on the score of the European Championship final between France and Portugal.  PMO photographer Haim Zach was quick to commemorate the moment and soon afterward, the photograph appeared on Netanyahu’s official Twitter account.  “Sara and I hosted Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry this evening in our home in Jerusalem. We made time to watch the Euro finals,” the photograph was captioned.  Shoukry is the first Egyptian foreign minister to visit Israel in nine years. Not a few Egyptians felt uneasy with the widely reported visit, but Shoukry could hardly have known that what would generate the most ire against him would be one quite innocent photograph, which may have been too eagerly publicized by Netanyahu’s office.  The Egyptian foreign minister found himself issuing an apologetic statement in which he explained that he was only walking by a television, which happened to have been tuned into the game, and that he wasn’t in the habit of watching soccer during important diplomatic missions.  While Netanyahu and Shoukry were not watching television, they were speaking mostly about the Palestinian issue. Two months after Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi’s speech in which he called on Israel, the Palestinians and Arab nations to take action to promote the Middle East peace process, the Egyptians are trying to determine whether or not there is anyone in Jerusalem and Ramallah with whom to talk, and if so on what.  Even after Shoukry’s visit, the Egyptians don’t have a clear answer.  Two Israeli sources who were briefed on details of the Netanyahu-Shoukry meeting stated that the Egyptian initiative is only in its infancy. The Egyptians are not yet talking of a Sissi- Netanyahu-Abbas conference, and not of inviting Netanyahu himself to Cairo. Reports to this effect in some Israeli and Arab newspapers were premature and somewhat exaggerated. A meeting between Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas nowadays would be like an occurrence of something that defied the laws of physics.  The Egyptians are in a much more initial stage. Shoukry came to check if Netanyahu was still committed to what he had told the Egyptian president after his speech in mid-May – to the effect that he wanted Egypt to bring about talks between Israel and the Palestinians, with the support of Arab nations. Shoukry told Netanyahu that Egypt was willing to invest in such an endeavor, to sponsor a regional peace initiative and bring more countries to the negotiating table. 4

 The Egyptian initiative tempts Netanyahu. One of the main reasons for this is that the French peace initiative is giving the premier hives. The Egyptians have been publicly announcing their support for the French initiative, but behind closed doors are skeptical of its likelihood of success, and even question its core logic. The Egyptians aren’t interested in confronting the French, or to promote a competing initiative outright.  But if Netanyahu agrees to take substantial actions that will allow the Egyptian initiative to take off, the French effort would become useless. If Netanyahu hesitates – as he usually does – and Sissi’s initiative flounders, the Egyptians will find their place as central players in the French initiative.  But before the Egyptians move forward, they want to be convinced that both sides – and primarily Israel – are serious, interested in putting effort into a new initiative of this kind and are willing to pay for it. Sissi would have preferred it if, two months ago, a new Israeli government with Zionist Union would have been sworn-in – a government that would have had more leeway to take action with regard to internal Israeli politics – but he knows this is not likely to happen anytime soon. He wants to know what Netanyahu would be willing to do with his current government.  According to Israeli sources, Shoukry’s message was that the ball is in Israel’s court. Egypt would be willing to do what it takes to push forward a diplomatic initiative, but first Netanyahu has to decide what direction he will take. “While the Egyptians don’t know if there is meat in this process, they won’t do a thing,” one Israeli source said. Following his meetings in Jerusalem, Shoukry held a round of update calls.  First to receive a call was French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Marc Ayrault. The latter would like to see the Egyptians as a major player pushing the French initiative. The French foreign minister wants Egypt to lead a work group that would generate a list of trust-building measures for the two sides, and the Egyptians would like to host Israeli-Palestinian talks on trust-building measures in Cairo. The two may be reconciled somehow.  Shoukry’s next call was to Jordan’s foreign affairs minister, Nasser Judeh, with whom he collaborates closely. If the Egyptian initiative matures, the Jordanians will play a central part in it, especially in pressuring Israel and the Palestinians. The final call was to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whom he met in Ramallah two weeks prior to his Jerusalem visit.  The Palestinians are suspicious of the Egyptian initiative. They are aware of the unprecedentedly close relations between Cairo and Jerusalem and are worried that Sissi will sell them cheap. They would rather see the Egyptian initiative dissipate and see the French initiative – which doesn’t require that they make any concessions – gather steam. It was not for nothing that Abbas told Shoukry his condition for meeting with Netanyahu is a freeze on settlement construction, the release of prisoners and a timetable for the negotiation’s end. He knows that Netanyahu will reject any and all of these demands.  On Wednesday, Shoukry received a call from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. Kerry was always interested in the Israeli-Palestinian issue and always looks to see if there is any possibility of moving the matter forward. If it was up to him, he would do this up until January 19. That is also why he traveled to Rome two weeks ago to meet with Netanyahu and dine with him for six hours at Pierluigi. 5

 Kerry left the meeting with Netanyahu pleased. He found Netanyahu more open than previously to the possibility of taking some kind of diplomatic initiative. Kerry was so pleased with his meeting with Netanyahu that, the next day, he called opposition leader Isaac Herzog and afterward his Zionist Union partner Tzipi Livni in order to update them. Senior American officials, as well as Herzog and Livni, have confirmed that these calls took place.  People close to Herzog stressed that Herzog’s talk with Kerry didn’t deal with politics or the question of Zionist Union’s joining the government. According to the sources, the secretary of state stressed this fact at the outset of the conversation. According to them, Kerry told Herzog that he had a good talk with Netanyahu dealing with the possibility of promoting a regional peace initiative. The sources said that Kerry claimed Netanyahu was aware of the fact that as time went by, the window of opportunity for a regional peace agreement is closing.  The Americans are listening to talk in Israel on a regional peace initiative, and looking on from the sidelines on the talks between Netanyahu and the Egyptians. They liked Sissi’s speech and Shoukry’s visit to Israel, but they are skeptical. Kerry and his people believe that many positive things are being said, but stress that, at this stage, they are only words. The secretary of state and his aides feel they had already been here an infinite number of times over the past seven and a half years, and cannot imagine how all the disparate points can be brought to merge into a single line in a true regional peace initiative.  The U.S. impression is that the Egyptian president is truly interested in promoting a regional peace initiative, which will return Egypt to its historic central role in the peace process. They believe Netanyahu would have liked an Egyptian peace initiative. But there is a difference between saying something and actually moving forward with it. There is a price that needs to be paid, and substantial steps that need to be taken.  The Americans are hard-pressed to see how the current Israeli government could make the steps that Netanyahu has avoided taking over the years due to political pressure. And if Netanyahu is not willing to do a thing, nothing will come out of the Egyptian initiative. Barak Ravid is the diplomatic correspondent for Ha’aretz.

Al-Monitor – July 13, 2016 Israel's New Defense Minister Draws Up Plan to Topple Hamas By Ben Caspit  The first order that Avigdor Lieberman gave when he entered the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv May 31, was to complete an operative plan to defeat Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to one senior security source, Lieberman expressed disbelief that no such Israel Defense Forces (IDF) plan was elaborated.  The policy advocated by his predecessor Moshe Ya’alon did not aim to defeat Hamas, overthrow its government or reoccupy Gaza. Instead, Ya’alon supported a policy of “containing” Gaza (adjusting to the existing reality), isolating Hamas and postponing the next conflict for as long as possible. All of this was based on the assumption that right now, there is no rational alternative to Hamas, and that Israel should not involve itself in changing the regime in any neighboring Arab state or entity. Lieberman arrived with a very different approach, shaking up the entire system.  No, he doesn’t think that Israel should conquer the Gaza Strip, summon former Fatah senior Mohammed Dahlan and install him in power over the local residents. Even he knows that these kinds of plans will eventually come crashing down, leaving more damage in their wake. The last time Israel attempted such a move, during the first Lebanon War (1982), it ended up mired in the bloody Lebanese swamp for almost 20 years, and with Hezbollah emerging as the most powerful political and military force in Lebanon. Besides, while Dahlan may be considered ''close'' to Lieberman (reportedly, Lieberman met with Dahlan in Paris last January), he is unfit to govern in Gaza, or at least Lieberman thinks so. Dahlan leads an easy life. He has all that he can want, he travels the world and he lives well. At this stage of his life, he lacks the constitution to throw himself into the sewer that is Gaza.  On the other hand, Lieberman does believe that the Gaza Strip is ready to overthrow Hamas. The group’s standing among the general population is being challenged, and quite a few of the local clans and tribes are already seeking an alternative. In the event that Hamas is deposed, the Egyptians could play a productive role by offering Gazans a change in policy. They could open the Rafah border crossing and provide aid, on condition that the people of Gaza install a saner leadership with no ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that Cairo deems beyond contempt.  Lieberman believes that Hamas is the ultimate evil. As such, its regime must be brought down, and its growing stock of rockets, within touching distance of the southern city of Ashkelon, must be eliminated. Furthermore, the defense minister believes that if Israel doesn’t do that now, within just a few years it will have another Hezbollah on its hands, this one along Israel’s southern border. That is why Lieberman has instructed the IDF to prepare an operational plan to defeat and overthrow Hamas in the next round of fighting. Will that next round of fighting occur soon? It remains an open question. Right now, the stability of Netanyahu’s government depends largely on the police inquiry/investigation into the prime minister’s dealings. Lieberman wants to serve at least one year as defense minister, since this will allow him to keep his promise. It is not at all clear if he has that year.

 It has been a little more than five weeks since he assumed the position of Israel’s defense minister, and Lieberman is enjoying every moment of it. He never worked so intensely. He had it easy as foreign minister, with all sorts of little indulgences. In the other ministries, he was never known as someone who worked from dusk to dawn, and certainly not around the clock. His attention span is limited. He is not the kind of person who looks at things at the highest resolution, and prefers to leave the little details to his staff. He lets the chief of staff and the General Staff do their jobs, without involving himself in appointments, because he has no interest in the minor processes. He is focused on the directives involved in establishing overall policy.  Lieberman is no longer willing to receive a presentation of all possible scenarios that the IDF provides before every operation. The outcome must always be the same: There should be just one possible result, under any and all circumstances, in any encounter, on any issue. As he tells it, the result must be decisive. Israel must not leave any conflict without a decisive, clear (winning) outcome.  One security source confided that Lieberman is excited about the IDF’s High Command and says that there hasn’t been a General Staff like this in a very long time. His relationship with Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot is quite successful.  In a security Cabinet meeting July 3, bellicose right-wing Education Minister Naftali Bennett attacked one of the generals who briefed the ministers by subjecting him to an endless barrage of questions. Suddenly Lieberman interrupted the discussion and instructed the general to stop answering Bennett. According to one security source speaking on condition of anonymity, Lieberman said to Bennett, “Wait until he’s finished speaking and then ask your questions.” Though the education minister still insisted on quizzing the general, he didn’t get any more answers. After that heated meeting, Lieberman received several enthusiastic reactions from his generals. “We’ve been waiting a long time for someone to put Bennett in his place,” said one general to Lieberman.  When it comes to Judea and Samaria, Lieberman’s position is different from that of the defense establishment. Given this, he is expected to get into quite a few conflicts with the General Staff and the Shin Bet. For one thing, Lieberman believes that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is Israel’s worst enemy and that Israel should strive to end his rule. He considers Abbas’ diplomatic offensive against Israel to be particularly serious, in fact, no less serious than a military offensive.  Here, too, Lieberman doesn’t really know what “the day after Abbas” will look like.  Like many others in the security establishment, he believes that there is no single successor to fulfill all of Abbas’ three roles: head of Fatah, head of the PLO and head of the Palestinian Authority. These three positions will most likely be divided among three claimants to the succession, and the West Bank government will be less centralized. Be that as it may, he does not believe that there will be chaos. He rejects warnings of those prophets of rage, who claim that Israel will be forced to run the Palestinians’ day-to-day life and tend to matters such as health, welfare, infrastructures, education, etc. According to Lieberman, there is absolutely no basis for that prognosis.

 Israel’s defense establishment has already identified quite a few senior Palestinian officials, who could fill Abbas’ positions. The names of people like Yasser Arafat’s nephew Nasser al- Qudwa or head of Palestinian intelligence Majid Faraj have been bandied about in various scenarios.  Lieberman believes that Abbas has completed his historic role and that it is now time for him to go. There is no chance of reaching any type of arrangement with him. If he didn’t say “yes” to former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s exaggerated plans in 2008 (according to Lieberman), he will certainly be incapable of saying yes to anything else. For that reason alone, Lieberman thinks, Abbas' continued presence (or attempts to negotiate with him) is nothing but a hindrance. Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers, and has a daily radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel.