Banks Universal Commercial

Groupe BPCE Ratings Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR A+ Update Short-Term IDR F1

Viability Rating a+

Support Rating 5 Support Rating Floor No Floor Key Rating Drivers Strong, Diversified Company Profile: Groupe BPCE’s (GBPCE) ratings reflect its strong Sovereign Risk franchise and diversified business model, strong regulatory capitalisation metrics and a focus Long-Term Foreign-and Local AA Currency IDRs on generally low-risk businesses. Asset quality and profitability are rating weaknesses Country Ceiling AAA compared with other ‘A+’ rated peers’ and Fitch Ratings expects increased pressure on both factors in the near term as a result of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Outlooks Cooperative Structure: GBPCE is a group bound by a legally established Long-Term Foreign-Currency Negative cross-support mechanism comprising its 14 Banques Populaires (BPs), 15 Caisses d’Epargne et IDR de Prevoyance (CEPs), its central body BPCE S.A. and many other affiliates, the largest being Sovereign Long-Term Foreign- Negative and Local-Currency IDRs S.A., Credit Foncier de France S.A. (CFF) and Banque Palatine S.A. Fitch has the same IDRs for GBPCE, BPCE S.A., the regional banks, Natixis, CFF and Banque Palatine. Large French Banking Group: GBPCE mainly operates in France, where it ranks as the second- Applicable Criteria largest domestic player in retail and commercial banking. GBPCE has a universal bancassurance Rating Criteria (February 2020) business model. Its partially listed subsidiary Natixis is a niche player in corporate and investment banking (CIB), but is a significant global player in asset management through its 24 affiliates (including H2O Asset Management, which is being sold). Related Research French Bancassurance Business Models (April Strong Capitalisation: GBPCE’s common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio is a key rating strength. 2021) GBPCE has established a long record of maintaining its capital metrics well above regulatory Large European Banks Quarterly Credit requirements, and we expect the CET1 ratio (16.1% at end-March 2021) to remain in line with Tracker - 4Q20 (March 2021) the group’s strategic target of at least 15.5%. Moment of Reckoning Approaching for Western EU Banks' Loan Moratoria (April Downside Asset Quality Risk: GBPCE’s impaired loan ratio is broadly in line with other French 2021) cooperative banks’, at about 3%. The stock of Stage 3 loans has moderately increased in the Groupe BPCE (November 2020)

year-to-date as extensive government support schemes in France have provided relief to many private-sector borrowers. However, we expect GBPCE’s asset quality to deteriorate in the next 12-18 months, but with an impaired loans ratio not materially higher than 4% by end-2022.

Profitability Under Pressure: We expect GBPCE’s profitability to be weaker than previously expected, at least until end-2021. We expect the bank will only return to an operating profit/risk-weighted assets (RWAs) closer to 1.5% during 2022 on renewed revenue growth, realised cost savings and normalising loan impairment charges (LICs). To reach profitability more in line with that of similarly rated peers, further cost savings while continuing to grow its revenue organically are important.

Diversified Funding Sources: GBPCE benefits from the strong deposit franchise of its regional banks in France, but only about half of total funding consists of deposits as its two largest subsidiaries (Natixis and CFF) are mostly wholesale-funded. GBPCE’s market funding is diversified by instrument, currency and investor base.

Rating Sensitivities

Negative Outlook: The Negative Outlook on GBPCE’s Long-Term IDR reflects downside risks to the group’s financial profile. A slowdown in, or severe setbacks to, the economic recovery in France would exacerbate these downside risks. Analysts Rafael Quina, CFA Weaker Profitability and Asset Quality: We would likely downgrade GBPCE’s ratings if its +33 1 44 29 91 81 asset quality deteriorates faster than expected, meaning that the impaired loans ratio would [email protected] remain above 4% for an extended period, or if operating profit/RWAs fails to improve to levels close to 1.5% by 2022. In such an event, we would also consider whether GBPCE’s CET1 ratio remains commensurate with its credit risk profile. Julien Grandjean +33 1 44 29 91 41 [email protected]

Update │ 2 June 2021 fitchratings.com 1

Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

Related Issuer Ratings

BPCE S.A. Rating

Long-Term IDR A+

Short-Term IDR F1 Derivative Counterparty Rating A+(dcr)

Natixis S.A.

Long-Term IDR A+ Short-Term IDR F1 Derivative Counterparty Rating A+(dcr) Credit Foncier de France S.A. Long-Term IDR A+ Short-Term IDR F1 Banque Palatine S.A. Long-Term IDR A+ Short-Term IDR F1

Source: Fitch Ratings

GBPCE publishes consolidated accounts and the entities affiliated to BPCE S.A. share a common strategy and coordinated marketing activities. Risk management is also centralised. We consequently assign group ratings in accordance with Annex 4 of our Bank Rating Criteria and have the same IDRs for the entities in the above table and the 14 BPs and 15 CEPs.

Debt Rating Classes Rating level Rating BPCE S.A. Senior preferred A+/F1 Senior non-preferred A Subordinated Tier 2 A- Natixis S.A. Senior preferred A+/F1 Subordinated Tier 2 A- Credit Foncier de France S.A. Senior preferred A+ Banque Palatine S.A. Senior preferred A+/F1 Credit Cooperatif a Senior preferred A+/F1

a Credit Cooperatif is a Banque Populaire Source: Fitch Ratings

Fitch rates the senior preferred debt of GBPCE’s group entities in line with their IDRs (A+/Negative/F1). This is because GBPCE is expected to use senior preferred debt to meet its minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) over the medium term, and buffers of subordinated and senior non-preferred debt are unlikely to exceed 10% of RWAs on a sustained basis. Senior non-preferred notes issued by BPCE S.A. are rated ‘A’ or one notch below the central body’s Long-Term IDR. This is to reflect the risk of below-average recoveries on these instruments in a resolution. BPCE S.A.’s and Natixis’s subordinated Tier 2 debt ratings are rated two notches below GBPCE’s Viability Rating (VR) for loss severity as we expect recoveries to be poor for this type of debt in the event of default/non-performance of the bank.

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Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

Ratings Navigator

ESG Relevance: Banks Groupe BPCE Ratings Navigator Financial Profile Operating Management & Support Rating Issuer Default Peer Ratings Company Profile Risk Appetite Earnings & Capitalisation & Funding & Viability Rating Environment Strategy Asset Quality Floor Rating Profitability Leverage Liquidity aaa aaa AAA AAA Negative aa+ aa+ AA+ AA+ Negative aa aa AA AA Negative aa- aa- AA- AA- Negative a+ a+ A+ A+ Negative a a A A Negative a- a- A- A- Negative bbb+ bbb+ BBB+ BBB+ Negative bbb bbb BBB BBB Negative bbb- bbb- BBB- BBB- Negative bb+ bb+ BB+ BB+ Negative bb bb BB BB Negative bb- bb- BB- BB- Negative b+ b+ B+ B+ Negative b b B B Negative b- b- B- B- Negative ccc+ ccc+ CCC+ CCC+ Negative ccc ccc CCC CCC Negative ccc- ccc- CCC- CCC- Negative cc cc CC CC Negative c c C C Negative

f f NF D or RD Negative

Significant Changes Profitability Set to Recover in 2021 Bar Chart Legend GBPCE’s profitability recovered further in 1Q21 to a level similar to 1Q19’s, benefiting from Vertical bars – VR range of Rating Factor improved economic conditions and a high level of CIB activity, while large French banks have Bar Colors – Influence on final VR generally reported stronger profitability in 1Q21 compared with 1Q19. All business lines Higher influence exhibited better or stable revenue compared with 1Q20, which however was a low base. Moderate influence CIB performed well in 1Q21 across all businesses. The equity business recorded a very strong Lower influence quarter, outperforming Natixis’ expected run-rate, indicating potential difficulties to maintain Bar Arrows – Rating Factor Outlook this level for the rest of 2021. Reduced funding costs due to the TLTRO and healthy commercial  Positive  Negative activity have supported strong revenue growth in the retail-banking networks, which should  Evolving  Stable benefit from the gradual withdrawal of lockdown measures in France. Asset- and wealth-management revenue remained stable yoy, supported by increasing assets under management to EUR1,153 billion at end-March 2021. The expected disposal of H2O asset management should lead to a moderate decline in revenue, which should be absorbed by business growth elsewhere. GBPCE’s operating expenses remained stable in 1Q21 yoy, highlighting strong cost discipline as observed in recent quarters, despite investments in insurance and payments, where the bank is still growing its franchises. Operating profit continues to be affected by higher LICs than in 2019, even though provisioning is starting to normalise. LICs decreased to 26bp of gross loans in 1Q21 (35bp in 1Q20 excluding a positive methodological effect), as forward-looking provisions on Stage 1 and Stage 2 loans decreased to about a fifth of total LICs. Stage 3 loans increased slightly qoq and we expect further inflows in 2021, which should lead to a moderate increase in GBPCE’s impaired loan ratio. GBPCE did not record provision reversals in 1Q21, indicating a prudent approach to assessing downside risks to asset quality. Uncertainties remain on the performance of some vulnerable French SMEs and small businesses once government-support measures expire.

Groupe BPCE Update │ 2 June 2021 fitchratings.com 3

Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

Summary Financials and Key Ratios

31 Mar 2021 31 Dec 2020 31 Dec 2019 31 Dec 2018 3 Months - 1st 3 Months - 1st Quarter Quarter Year End Year End Year End USDm EURm EURm EURm EURm Audited - Unqualified(Emphasis Unaudited Unaudited Audited - Unqualified of Matter) Audited - Unqualified Summary Income Statement Net interest and dividend income n.a. n.a. 9,308.0 8,830.0 8,760.0 Net fees and commissions n.a. n.a. 9,187.0 9,585.0 9,568.0 Other operating income 7,262 6,194.0 4,225.0 6,155.0 5,956.0 Total operating income 7,262 6,194.0 22,720.0 24,570.0 24,284.0 Operating costs 5,458 4,655.0 16,644.0 17,582.0 17,687.0 Pre-impairment operating profit 1,804 1,539.0 6,076.0 6,988.0 6,597.0 Loan and other impairment charges 575 490.0 2,998.0 1,367.0 1,299.0 Operating profit 1,230 1,049.0 3,078.0 5,621.0 5,298.0 Other non-operating items (net) -1 -1.0 -289.0 -83.0 -1.0 Tax 483 412.0 1,045.0 1,801.0 1,478.0 Net income 746 636.0 1,744.0 3,737.0 3,819.0 Other comprehensive income n.a. n.a. -144.0 809.0 -45.0 Fitch comprehensive income 746 636.0 1,600.0 4,546.0 3,774.0

Summary Balance Sheet Assets Gross loans 882,418 752,597.0 753,446.0 699,501.0 663,380.0 - of which impaired n.a. n.a. 20,755.0 20,926.0 21,433.0 Loan loss allowances n.a. n.a. 13,538.0 12,810.0 12,617.0 Net loans 882,418 752,597.0 739,908.0 686,691.0 650,763.0 Interbank 114,633 97,768.0 87,863.0 84,624.0 84,684.0 Derivatives 18,113 15,448.0 58,782.0 64,511.0 59,507.0 Other securities and earning assets 478,866 408,415.0 356,027.0 365,637.0 340,691.0 Total earning assets 1,494,030 1,274,228.0 1,242,580.0 1,201,463.0 1,135,645.0 Cash and due from banks 211,580 180,452.0 153,403.0 80,244.0 76,458.0 Other assets 38,196 32,577.0 50,286.0 56,357.0 61,823.0 Total assets 1,743,806 1,487,257.0 1,446,269.0 1,338,064.0 1,273,926.0

Liabilities Customer deposits 756,459 645,169.0 625,732.0 554,705.0 523,469.0 Interbank and other short-term funding 186,676 159,212.0 313,799.0 269,620.0 260,328.0 Other long-term funding 516,297 440,339.0 191,635.0 190,865.0 181,092.0 Trading liabilities and derivatives 16,526 14,095.0 75,255.0 81,836.0 81,591.0 Total funding 1,475,958 1,258,815.0 1,206,421.0 1,097,026.0 1,046,480.0 Other liabilities 174,382 148,727.0 161,133.0 163,394.0 153,706.0 Preference shares and hybrid capital n.a. n.a. 303.0 455.0 1,169.0 Total equity 93,466 79,715.0 78,412.0 77,189.0 72,571.0 Total liabilities and equity 1,743,806 1,487,257.0 1,446,269.0 1,338,064.0 1,273,926.0 Exchange rate USD1 = EUR0.85288 USD1 = EUR0.821963 USD1 = EUR0.89015 USD1 = EUR0.873057 Source : Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, GBPCE

Groupe BPCE Update │ 2 June 2021 fitchratings.com 4

Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

Summary Financials and Key Ratios

31 Mar 2021 31 Dec 2020 31 Dec 2019 31 Dec 2018 Ratios (annualised as appropriate)

Profitability Operating profit/risk-weighted assets 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.4 Net interest income/average earning assets n.a. 0.8 0.8 0.8 Non-interest expense/gross revenue 75.2 73.8 72.3 73.7 Net income/average equity 3.3 2.3 5.0 5.4

Asset quality Impaired loans ratio n.a. 2.8 3.0 3.2 Growth in gross loans -0.1 7.7 5.4 1.4 Loan loss allowances/impaired loans n.a. 65.2 61.2 58.9 Loan impairment charges/average gross loans 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2

Capitalisation Common equity Tier 1 ratio 16.1 16.0 15.7 15.8 Fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratio 16.1 16.0 15.7 15.9 Tangible common equity/tangible assets 4.9 4.9 5.3 5.2 Basel leverage ratio 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.3 Net impaired loans/common equity Tier 1 n.a. 10.5 12.3 14.2

Funding and liquidity Loans/customer deposits 116.7 120.4 126.1 126.7 Liquidity coverage ratio 165.0 156.0 n.a. n.a. Customer deposits/funding 51.8 54.2 53.6 53.0 Source : Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, GBPCE

Groupe BPCE Update │ 2 June 2021 fitchratings.com 5

Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

Sovereign Support Assessment

Support Rating Floor Value Typical D-SIB SRF for sovereign's rating level (assuming high propensity) A or A- Actual country D-SIB SRF NF Support Rating Floor: NF Support Factors Positive Neutral Negative Sovereign ability to support system Size of banking system relative to economy ✓ Size of potential problem ✓ Structure of banking system ✓ Liability structure of banking system ✓ Sovereign financial flexibility (for rating level) ✓ Sovereign propensity to support system Resolution legislation with senior debt bail-in ✓ Track record of banking sector support ✓ Government statements of support ✓ Sovereign propensity to support bank Systemic importance ✓ Liability structure of bank ✓ Ownership ✓ Specifics of bank failure ✓ Policy banks Policy role Funding guarantees and legal status Government ownership

No Reliance on Sovereign Support GBPCE’s Support Rating of ‘5’ and Support Rating Floor of ‘No Floor’ reflect Fitch’s view that although possible, sovereign support cannot be relied upon. Legislative, regulatory and policy initiatives, including the implementation of the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, have substantially reduced the likelihood of sovereign support for EU commercial banks in general. This implies that senior creditors would probably be required to participate in losses, if necessary, instead of, or ahead of, the bank receiving sovereign support, despite GBPCE’s systemic importance.

Groupe BPCE Update │ 2 June 2021 fitchratings.com 6

Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

Environmental, Social and Governance Considerations

Banks Groupe BPCE Ratings Navigator

Credit-Relevant ESG Derivation Overall ESG Scale Groupe BPCE has 5 ESG potential rating drivers key driver 0 issues 5 Groupe BPCE has exposure to compliance risks including fair lending practices, mis-selling, repossession/foreclosure practices, consumer data protection (data security) but this has very low  impact on the rating. driver 0 issues 4  Governance is minimally relevant to the rating and is not currently a driver.

 potential driver 5 issues 3   4 issues 2 not a rating driver  5 issues 1

Environmental (E) General Issues E Score Sector-Specific Issues Reference E Scale How to Read This Page GHG Emissions & Air Quality 1 n.a. n.a. 5 ESG scores range from 1 to 5 based on a 15-level color gradation. Red (5) is most relevant and green (1) is least relevant.

Energy Management 1 n.a. n.a. 4 The Environmental (E), Social (S) and Governance (G) tables break out the individual components of the scale. The right-hand box shows the aggregate E, S, or G score. General Issues are relevant across all markets with Sector- Water & Wastewater Management 1 n.a. n.a. 3 Specific Issues unique to a particular industry group. Scores are assigned to each sector-specific issue. These scores signify the credit-relevance of the Waste & Hazardous Materials sector-specific issues to the issuing entity's overall credit rating. The Reference 1 n.a. n.a. 2 Management; Ecological Impacts box highlights the factor(s) within which the corresponding ESG issues are Impact of extreme weather events on assets and/or operations and captured in Fitch's credit analysis. Exposure to Environmental Company Profile; Management & 2 corresponding risk appetite & management; catastrophe risk; credit 1 Impacts Strategy; Risk Appetite; Asset Quality concentrations The Credit-Relevant ESG Derivation table shows the overall ESG score. This score signifies the credit relevance of combined E, S and G issues to the Social (S) entity's credit rating. The three columns to the left of the overall ESG score summarize the issuing entity's sub-component ESG scores. The box on the far General Issues S Score Sector-Specific Issues Reference S Scale left identifies some of the main ESG issues that are drivers or potential drivers Human Rights, Community Services for underbanked and underserved communities: SME and Company Profile; Management & of the issuing entity's credit rating (corresponding with scores of 3, 4 or 5) and 2 5 Relations, Access & Affordability community development programs; financial literacy programs Strategy; Risk Appetite provides a brief explanation for the score. Customer Welfare - Fair Compliance risks including fair lending practices, mis-selling, Operating Environment; Company Classification of ESG issues has been developed from Fitch's sector ratings Messaging, Privacy & Data 3 repossession/foreclosure practices, consumer data protection (data Profile; Management & Strategy; Risk 4 criteria. The General Issues and Sector-Specific Issues draw on the Security security) Appetite classification standards published by the United Nations Priniciples for Impact of labor negotiations, including board/employee compensation Company Profile; Management & Responsible Investing (PRI) and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Labor Relations & Practices 2 3 and composition Strategy Board(SASB).

Employee Wellbeing 1 n.a. n.a. 2 Sector references in the scale definitions below refer to Sector as displayed in the Sector Details box on page 1 of the navigator. Shift in social or consumer preferences as a result of an institution's Exposure to Social Impacts 2 social positions, or social and/or political disapproval of core banking Company Profile; Financial Profile 1 practices

Governance (G) CREDIT-RELEVANT ESG SCALE General Issues G Score Sector-Specific Issues Reference G Scale How relevant are E, S and G issues to the overall credit rating? Highly relevant, a key rating driver that has a significant impact on Management Strategy 3 Operational implementation of strategy Management & Strategy 5 5 the rating on an individual basis. Equivalent to "higher" relative importance within Navigator. Board independence and effectiveness; ownership concentration; Relevant to rating, not a key rating driver but has an impact on the Management & Strategy; Earnings & Governance Structure 3 protection of creditor/stakeholder rights; legal /compliance risks; 4 4 rating in combination with other factors. Equivalent to "moderate" Profitability; Capitalisation & Leverage business continuity; key person risk; related party transactions relative importance within Navigator. Minimally relevant to rating, either very low impact or actively Organizational structure; appropriateness relative to business model; Group Structure 3 Company Profile 3 3 managed in a way that results in no impact on the entity rating. opacity; intra-group dynamics; ownership Equivalent to "lower" relative importance within Navigator.

Financial Transparency 3 Quality and frequency of financial reporting and auditing processes Management & Strategy 2 2 Irrelevant to the entity rating but relevant to the sector.

1 1 Irrelevant to the entity rating and irrelevant to the sector.

GBPCE’s highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of ‘3’. This means ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity.

Groupe BPCE Update │ 2 June 2021 fitchratings.com 7

Banks Universal Commercial Banks France

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