School Places Strategy

2015 to 2020

Clare Medland Head of School Place Commissioning, County Hall, Trowbridge, Wiltshire BA14 8JN

Please read this document carefully and retain it for future reference

1 Wiltshire Council School Places Strategy 2015 to 2020

Table of contents

Page A Context 4-7

B Policies and principles relevant to the provision of schools B1 Corporate aims 7 B2 Principles of school place planning 7-8 B3 School performance 8 B4 Place Planning 8 B5 Access and diversity 8-9 B6 Reorganisation of schools 9-10 B7 Academies 11 B8 Free schools 11 B9 Location of new schools 11-12 B10 Capital investment 12 B11 Accessibility of schools 12-13 B12 Meeting special educational needs 13 B13 Provision for permanently excluded students 13 B14 Schools in the wider community 14 B15 The expansion of schools 14 B16 Admissions policy 15 B17 Early years and childcare 15 B18 14-19 Education and Skills 16 (to 25 years for learners with learning difficulties and disabilities) B19 Post 16 16

C School organisation and planning issues C1 Influencing factors 16-19 C2 Population overview 19-20 C3 Summary by school planning area 21-27

D Detailed planning area assessments D1 Amesbury 28-32 D2 Bradford on Avon 33-37 D3 Calne 38-42 D4 Chippenham 43-50 D5 Corsham 51-55 D6 Devizes 56-60 D7 Downton 61-63 D8 Durrington 64-67 D9 Lavington 68-70 D10 Malmesbury 71-75 D11 Marlborough 76-80 D12 Melksham 81-85

2 D13 Mere 86-87 D14 Pewsey 88-90 D15 Purton 91-93 D16 Royal Wootton Bassett 94-98 D17 Salisbury 99-107 D18 Tidworth 108-111 D19 Tisbury 112-114 D20 Trowbridge 115-121 D21 Warminster 122-126 D22 Westbury 127-131 D23 Wroughton 132-133

E Implementation Plan 134-139

3 Context

A1 Statutory Duties

Wiltshire Council has a statutory duty to plan the provision of school places and to ensure that there are sufficient places for all 4 to 16 year old young people in the County. This includes the provision of suitable accommodation to support the promotion of high educational standards, ensuring an admissions process to allocate school places and ensure fair access to educational opportunities. The Council manages the impact of rising and declining pupil numbers and helps to create a diverse community of schools. This document has been prepared as a planning tool to respond to the continuing need to review the number and nature of school places alongside any new housing developments, any changes in the birth rate and in line with any government policy change. It supplements the Wiltshire Children and Young People’s Plan and supports the implementation of its principles.

A core ambition of Wiltshire Council is that all children and young people living in Wiltshire are entitled to the highest quality education so that they are able to fulfil their potential. Through the commissioning of school places, as outlined in this School Places Strategy, the aim is to produce an effective match between pupils and places by providing an infrastructure of high quality school buildings and facilities, where all schools, regardless of status, are of an appropriate size and standard to deliver the curriculum effectively.

It should be noted that use of the term ‘school’ throughout this document refers to schools of all status including academies, UTC’s, Free schools etc.

A2 What is the School Places Strategy?

Commissioning is the overall process by which services are planned and delivered. The Strategy pulls together the information required to form a strategic view of the need for school places across Wiltshire and provides a revised and updated policy framework for considering statutory proposals, (opening, closing and defining the size of schools); implementing new school competition arrangements; facilitating the development of collaborative and federated arrangements and where appropriate encouraging all through school models.

To be effective, the commissioning process requires the strategic planning of services based on an analysis of need, a set of policies and principles by which decisions will be made and well defined processes for the implementation of proposals. The full Strategy therefore sets out demographic trends in Wiltshire, including a summary of new major house building, details of current school and post-16 provision, an analysis of the latest pupil projections, emerging proposals and guiding policies and principles upon which decisions will be informed.

A3 Who is the Strategy for?

The Strategy is intended to help key stakeholders and partners in Children’s Services, including the Local Authority, schools, governors, parents, the churches, local communities, business, and other providers of education, to understand what school places are needed in Wiltshire, now and in the future, and how they will be provided.

A4 Geographical and population context

The planning and organisation of school places in a Local Authority is a complex task, not least because of the size and diversity of the County.

4 Wiltshire is a predominantly rural county. It has a population of approximately 471,000, nearly half of whom live in towns or villages with fewer than 5,000 people. A quarter of the county’s inhabitants live in settlements of fewer than 1,000 people. The areas of greatest deprivation in Wiltshire, as determined by the Indices of Multiple Deprivation, are parts of Trowbridge, Salisbury, Westbury, Melksham and Calne. Whilst the greatest concentrations of poverty are in particular neighbourhoods in towns, there is a more dispersed, often hidden, incidence in the rural parts of the county.

As at the 2011 Census, 74% of Wiltshire’s working age population were in employment. This is higher than the employment rate for both the South West (70.3%) and England (73.3%). The armed forces have a significant presence, particularly in the south of the county, currently there are around 34,000 military personnel and dependants in Wiltshire. The development of the Salisbury Plain Super Garrison involving the relocation of a significant number of military personnel to Wiltshire from 2016 and the change of use of RAF Lyneham will have significant socio-economic implications and impact on local communities across the county.

Wiltshire Council is one of the largest unitary authorities in England, covering an area of approximately 3,255 square kilometres. Wiltshire adjoins the local authorities of Dorset, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, West Berkshire, Hampshire, Swindon and Bath and North East Somerset. Wiltshire is a largely rural area encompassing many natural and historic features which make it distinctive, including parts of three Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, part of the New Forest National Park, over 16,000 listed buildings, over 240 conservation areas and a World Heritage Site. Wiltshire also includes an element of the Western Wiltshire Green Belt, which protects the openness of the countryside between Bath, Bradford-on-Avon and Trowbridge. The urban area of Swindon, while predominantly within Borough, has expanded into Wiltshire. Deprivation is generally low and communities benefit from safe environments. Wiltshire enjoys strong sub regional links and is within commutable distance of London, Bristol, Swindon, South Wales and the south coast. The largest settlements in Wiltshire are the historic cathedral city of Salisbury in the south, the county town of Trowbridge in the west, and the market town of Chippenham in the north. The city of Salisbury serves a large surrounding rural area.

Wiltshire is made up of three larger settlements, a number of market towns and numerous villages and small settlements reflecting the rural nature of the county and a considerable variety of school buildings in terms of age and type. In addition, The Designation of Rural st Primary Schools (England) 2014 Order came into force on 1 October 2014 which determines that 114 (68%) of Wiltshire’s primary schools are ‘rural’ with a presumption against their closure.

A5 Major contextual issues

Wiltshire Council faces three specific issues in managing school places:

 The demographic trend in the school population age range is largely driven by the birth rate - births in Wiltshire averaged 5400 births per year between 2005 and 2014. The pressure on primary school places since 2009 has been significant and will continue to be so as the peak 2005 to 2011 birth years feed through primary and secondary education. These figures do not account for the high number of children moving into the County due to house moves, army relocations etc. All these issues are covered in more detail under the School Organisation and Planning Issues section of this document.

 Significant housing development across the county – 42,000 houses by 2026. These developments are predominately concentrated in urban areas and will require additional school places or the take up of remaining surplus places. Timing of some of 5 these developments is uncertain but the extent of housing is detailed in the Wiltshire Core Strategy which can be found via the following link:

http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/core-strategy-adoption.pdf

 The Army Basing Review announced by the Secretary of State for Defence on 5 March 2013, takes its lead from the new Army 2020 Plan outlined in July 2012. An additional 4,200 military personnel and their dependants will be relocated into Tidworth, Ludgershall (specifically Perham Down), Bulford, and Larkhill. They will relocate between 2016 and 2019, the bulk of which will enable the withdrawal of units from Germany. Additionally a significant number of army families are expected to buy houses in the surrounding towns and villages and therefore the influx of military families with their children will have an impact on a range of schools and areas.

Wiltshire Council, the Dioceses of Salisbury, Bristol and Clifton, the Education Funding Agency (EFA) and the governing bodies/trusts of schools and academies are all key partners and have important roles in school place planning. With 237 schools and over 65,000 pupils to consider, finding workable strategies for planning sufficient school places is demanding and challenging for all concerned.

Planning for school places is based on probabilities and while pupil projections are derived from sound methodology they are often dependent on external factors such as sociological and economic changes, parental preference for certain schools, new government policy and the need to raise standards. Planning also has to respond to external and internal findings on the quality of schools as well as the need to ensure that limited resources are used efficiently.

As a result, Wiltshire Council will need to respond to changes in demand over time by:

 Negotiating the expansion of ( or increasing the PAN of) existing schools and academies  Commissioning new schools as academies/Free schools  Improving facilities at existing schools  Reducing places at existing schools to ensure that provision matches demand  Closing and amalgamating schools as well as facilitating federation when numbers fall

The School Places Strategy provides comprehensive information on school place planning in the county and outlines how the local authority, in securing the provision of primary, secondary and special education, will support the promotion of:

 raising standards  improved outcomes for all pupils  diversity of provision  increased collaboration between schools  greater community cohesion

The Strategy provides the context for the future organisation and commissioning of school places in each secondary school pyramid (defined as the primary schools that feed into a particular secondary school or town) in Wiltshire and sets out the principles that need when planning school places. It will help Wiltshire Council, schools, academy trusts, promoters, parents and local communities to understand the rationale behind the provision of school places and establish future demands. The Strategy will be reviewed and updated biennially, to ensure that provision continues to be matched with demand.

6 The anticipated scale of expansion of population in Wiltshire will require the review of school provision in some areas. The timescale and order of priority for such reviews is significantly influenced by the Core Strategy, military rebasing, changes in the birth rate etc.

Reviews in rural areas will focus on establishing an organisational structure that promotes the continuity of village schools. Federations, amalgamations and Multi Academy Trust provision and Free Schools will be promoted where appropriate. The re-designation of space for other services in rural schools, to reduce surplus places, will also be considered in all such reviews.

B Policies and principles relevant to the provision of school places

B1 Corporate aims

Wiltshire Council’s vision, identified in the Children’s Trust Plan is to improve outcomes for children & young people in Wiltshire, promote safeguarding, reduce the effects of child poverty and enable resilient individuals, families and communities.

The Children’s Trust Plan states that more children and young people will be educated in high quality buildings as a result of the implementation of the vision. This can only be achieved by careful management of the estate, of school place supply and of funding streams such as:

 Maintenance and Basic Need capital allocations  Targeted Capital – e.g. Priority School Building Programme (PSBP)  School Contributions and Devolved Formula Capital Funding  Developer contributions – Section 106, CIL etc and other capital receipts

B2 Principles of school place planning

In areas where pupil numbers are increasing the LA will identify where additional places may be required, either by expanding existing schools or by commissioning new schools on new sites within the community.

As a local authority (LA) Wiltshire Council is responsible for planning and providing sufficient school places in appropriate locations. In order to do so the LA must monitor the supply of school places against forecasts of future demand. The size of the revenue budget for distribution to all schools is determined by pupil numbers. This means that where pupil numbers reduce schools may have insufficient budget to maintain standards and retain and recruit teachers, particularly head teachers. By taking out surplus places and facilitating the closure or amalgamation of schools that are unviable, the LA can ensure effective overall provision within an area and within the school system as a whole.

School place planning and ensuring schools are of the right size for the future, enables (where appropriate) surplus space to be considered for alternative uses, including community purposes, although the level of surplus in more urban areas is low. Promoting the ‘extended school’ concept remains a national and local priority. Accommodation released can be re-allocated to a wide variety of purposes including for additional early years and childcare places, health care, libraries, adult and children’s services bases and youth facilities.

Falling rolls in rural areas have already necessitated the closure or amalgamation of some village primary schools. The LA would consider the concept of 4-19 all though schools to 7 serve some rural areas, particularly where numbers of secondary pupils are low and a local school would serve the whole community. Where possible the use of expensive transport to alternative schools will be avoided so that funds can be devoted to educational purposes.

The LA will in all cases consult with the headteacher and staff, governors, Academy Trustees, the relevant Diocesan Authority (where appropriate) and the local community where any major reorganisation of provision is proposed. Such factors as the number of available and required places, school performance, the condition and suitability of the school buildings as well as parental choice and community issues will be considered in respect of both general and specific places planning.

B3 School performance

Raising achievement for all learners is one of the key priorities for the LA and all school planning decisions should promote the improvement of educational standards. This means that the performance of an existing school, or group of schools, is an important factor to be taken into consideration when proposals to add or remove capacity or make other structural changes are being formulated. Any proposals for reviewing school organisation will take account of OFSTED inspection reports and other relevant performance data on the school(s) involved.

The LA works with head teachers and Governors to ensure that schools and settings are supported in the development and planning of facilities in the form of information, advice and guidance in order to improve outcomes for young people and support high quality learning.

B4 Place Planning

School Planning Areas

The planning of school places in Wiltshire is based on the geographical areas defined by the secondary school catchments and feeder schools aligned to them. These are the same demographic planning areas that the Council is required to report on annually to the Department of Education (DfE) to inform future capital basic need allocations. Whilst all schools are included in the Strategy, they may not be grouped according to Area Board areas.

Place planning can be influenced by parental preference in terms of selecting a school. Applications for school places are considered in line with the relevant Admission Authority Admission Policy and oversubscription criteria.

B5 Access and diversity

Categories of Schools

Wiltshire has a wide diversity of mainstream school provision with:

 Community schools (infant, junior, primary, special and secondary)  Voluntary aided schools (primary and secondary)  Voluntary controlled schools (infant, junior and primary)  Foundation schools (infant, junior, primary and secondary)  Academies (primary, secondary and special)  Free schools (UTC + Post 16)

As at January 2015, there are 179 maintained schools, 57 academies and 2 Free schools in Wiltshire giving a total of 238 schools overall. The table below gives a breakdown of schools in Wiltshire by category. 8 Category Primary Secondary Special Total Community 41 3 4 48 Foundation 11 4 0 15 Academy 35 20 2 57 Voluntary Aided 48 2 0 50 Voluntary Controlled 66 0 0 66 Free school (UTC/Post16) 0 2 0 2 Total 201 31 6 238

Encouraging diversity

Wiltshire Council is committed to providing children and young people with equal access to high quality education provision. It recognises that local communities are diverse and supports the local management of schools to help reflect this diversity. Schools need to serve their local community and if the needs of the community are best served by some specialisation or federated/trust type governance, Wiltshire Council will support it. Wiltshire Council is committed to maintaining the current diversity of provision and extending it where possible.

The development of new schools, including the academy conversion programme, is co-ordinated by members of the School Place Commissioning Team. Wiltshire Council is supportive of schools as self-governing institutions and is committed to raising standards. The LA believes if schools can work collaboratively with other schools to improve the life chances of all children and young people within the local area then this will support the raising of standards.

The current pattern of school provision includes a number of schools with a religious foundation and/or background. The Diocesan authorities work closely with Wiltshire Council in the planning of school places to provide opportunities for parents to express a preference for denominational education.

When establishing new schools Wiltshire Council acts as a commissioner of high quality school provision through the operation of a competition to determine the best provider in line with current DfE policy and in consultation with the Regional Schools Commissioner. The final decision on provider rests with the Secretary of State.

There are two selective single sex grammar schools in Salisbury and there are no plans to change the current organisation of selective schools. Any change would be subject to regulations that allow for ballots to be initiated by parents or proposals to be brought forward by the respective governing body. However, Wiltshire Council does not support any new proposals by schools to select by ability.

B6 Re-organisation of schools

Primary schools

The preferred size for new primary schools is within the range of 210 places to 630 places (1FE to 3FE) and Wiltshire Council will only seek to open new primary schools of full or half forms of entry.

Where a new primary phase school is required this will be built as an all through primary school, rather than as separate infant or junior schools. Wiltshire Council will continue to seek opportunities to amalgamate separate infant and junior schools where the combined numbers are less than 420 and the sites lend themselves to a single institution. 9 Wiltshire Council recognises the government’s presumption against the closure of village schools, and will only bring forward proposals to close a village school where it can be demonstrated that one or more of the following criteria can be met:

 There is only very limited demand for places at the school from children coming from the designated area  Surplus places at the school exceed 25%  Standards are low and there is low confidence in the likelihood of improvement  Recruitment of a headteacher has not proved possible  The necessary improvements to the school accommodation are either not possible or not cost effective  The school has a deficit budget without realistic prospects of recovery

For all schools with fewer than 90 pupils on roll Wiltshire Council will actively encourage the governors of the school to consider further collaboration and, ultimately, federation or amalgamation with one or more neighbouring schools or by joining a Multi Academy Trust.

Secondary schools

The optimum size for an 11 to 16 secondary school is (6FE) 900 to (9FE) 1200 pupils. Wiltshire Council however recognises that in some communities provision may fall outside the ideal size of secondary school and demand for additional places could be met either by expanding existing schools if there is sufficient capacity on the site or by new provision located within a new housing community.

Special schools

Special schools need to be of sufficient size to provide appropriate facilities and opportunities to meet the needs of the range of pupils they admit and to act as resource and outreach centres for other schools and pupils. Their size will depend on the age range of pupils and the type/nature of special educational needs that they cater for. Work is currently ongoing to review special needs provision across the County to ensure future demand can be met moving forward. It is anticipated that there will be a need to provide additional places at Special schools that provide support for children with complex needs and increase the level of Resource Base provision in key areas as the population grows.

School size

Whilst Wiltshire Council does define optimum sizes for schools it recognises that there will be many schools falling outside this range which provide excellent education. Factors that can affect the size of a school include local pupil population, site constraints, availability of funding and deployment of revenue resources.

Wiltshire Council will plan to provide school places in schools of sizes that promote:

• Sufficient curriculum coverage and, where appropriate, adequate curriculum choice • Viable and sustainable schools which do not require disproportionate financial support • Viable class organisation structures • Adequate non-contact time for staff • Sustainable sixth form provision where appropriate

10 B7 Academies

An academy is a public funded independent school (not maintained by a LA), accountable to the Department for Education (DfE) and funded directly by the Education Funding Agency (EFA). Academies have freedoms to set their own pay and conditions of service for staff, are free to deliver the curriculum as they see fit and can vary the length of school terms and the length of the school day. Academies must follow the same admissions guidance, exclusion processes and meet the statutory processes for pupils with Special Educational Needs (SEN) however they may set their own admissions criteria. Academies are inspected by OFSTED using the same framework as other state funded schools.

The Council works closely with the Regional Schools Commissioner to ensure all new school proposals are supported by academy trusts that understand the needs and aspirations of the community.

B8 Free Schools

A Free school is an all ability state funded school set up on a not for profit basis and can be set up by groups like:

 Businesses  Academy Trusts  Charities  Universities  Independent Schools  Teachers  Parents

A Free school has the freedoms of an academy; however, teachers in free schools do not necessarily need to have Qualified Teacher Status (QTS.) Free schools are funded on a comparable basis to other state funded schools and are inspected by OFSTED. Free schools cannot be academically selective. They have to take part in locally co-ordinated admissions so applications follow the same process.

Free schools (including UTC’s and Studio schools) are not defined by size or location; they can be primary, secondary, post-16 or all-through schools as there is not a one size fits all approach. They are able to teach a post 16 curriculum. Free schools can be located in traditional school buildings, offices or other buildings for example, church halls.

B9 Location of new schools

The fundamental aim in planning school places is to provide places near to where children live, in order to meet parental preferences as far as possible, to place schools at the heart of their communities and to minimise travel to school distances. Wiltshire Council believes that where additional school places are needed as a consequence of new housing development, as far as possible the costs should fall on the landowners and/or developers, by way of contributions falling within the concept of planning obligations. Wiltshire has an agreed methodology for calculating the infrastructure needs arising from new development. A policy for requesting contributions from developers and for the use of such funding is in place.

It is Wiltshire Council policy that new primary schools should be provided, wherever possible, within major new housing developments. These should be within walking distance and Wiltshire Council will seek, through the planning processes, to provide for safe routes to school for pedestrians and cyclists. Sites will be sought where the school can provide a

11 natural focus for the local community, possibly in association with other local facilities such as shops or other community buildings.

Where a new secondary school is planned a site will be sought that provides safe pedestrian and cycling routes and also good safe access for those that have to arrive by public and school transport. In order to discourage the use of private cars schools are expected to prepare and maintain a Travel Plan. The Council has a Schools Travel Plan officer to support schools to implement their plan.

Wiltshire Council recognises the importance of considering distance of travel from homes to schools when planning new developments in order to reduce dependence on subsidised bus travel and encourage safe walking and cycling to schools. The Wiltshire Local Transport Plan - LTP Strategy 2011-2026 lists a number of Strategic Objectives which are adhered to when planning school places:

 A reduction in air pollution  A reduction in commuting  The means of regular exercise for pupils  A reduction in travel costs for parents and Wiltshire Council  A reduction in congestion on Wiltshire’s roads

B10 Capital investment

It is recognised that pupils benefit from high quality learning environments and equipment. Capital investment priorities are based on requirements to:

 Provide sufficient places to meet the need of local communities  Provide healthy and safe environments  Meet curricular and organisational needs  Enhance physical access to buildings  Replace temporary accommodation with permanent where possible  Implement key strategic initiatives

Condition Surveys are used alongside Net Capacity assessments to determine investment priorities. Government grant, Council resources and developer contributions are used to fund the necessary capital investment alongside any centrally acquired monies through a national bidding process. Capital resources are however becoming increasingly stretched. At present there are two main funding streams allocated by DfE for school building projects, one which is solely for maintenance (condition) and the other is for providing additional pupil places including special school places (Basic Need). The Priority School Building Programme (PSBP) is a separate funding stream (bids required) for replacing or refurbishing schools in the worst condition, Wiltshire currently has a handful of projects funded by the PSBP phases I & II.

B11 Accessibility of school buildings

Improving access to education and securing educational achievement for pupils with a disability is essential to ensure equality of opportunity, full participation in society, access to employment opportunities and inclusion within mainstream schools. Wiltshire’s inclusion vision is that every disabled child and young person in the county should achieve their potential educationally, socially and in their personal life. The Accessibility Strategy is a core component in realising this vision. Wiltshire Council is committed to increasing the accessibility of schools, wherever possible and where reasonable adaptations can be made, to wheelchair users and pupils with sensory impairment.

12 An audit of all schools established a baseline from which progress can be measured. The audit concentrates on the physical access to communal facilities and teaching accommodation as well as the provision of any specialist facilities such as toilets. The Accessibility Strategy for Educational Settings in Wiltshire 2013 – 2016 provides further details and is available upon request.

B12 Meeting special educational needs

The local context for the planning of school places for children with special needs is based on a strategy that includes a commitment to:

 Work with mainstream schools to develop their capacity to provide for as wide a range of individual needs as possible and to raise the level of inclusion and achievement of those with special needs  Work with and develop special schools and resource bases to enable them to provide directly for some pupils  Manage available resources effectively, efficiently and transparently to support the realisation of shared objectives

Within this strategy the size, location and nature of non-mainstream provision is regularly reviewed. Resource bases on school sites will be enhanced or designations reviewed so that the most appropriate facilities are in place, including sensory environments, to enhance pupils’ learning and experience.

Special schools and resource bases should be of sufficient size to provide a wide range of experience and expertise amongst the staff, not only to provide appropriate opportunities to meet the needs of all pupils at the school, but to act as resource and outreach centres for their respective geographic areas.

B13 Provision for permanently excluded students

In its White Paper, “The Importance of Teaching,” the Government raised concerns about the educational outcomes of pupils that have been permanently excluded. It expressed the view that this would be best addressed by making schools more responsible for pupils that they permanently exclude. This would ensure schools become more responsible for providing education for pupils they have permanently excluded and that such pupils should remain on the school’s roll. Wiltshire Council and six other local authorities took part in a trial to test out these ideas under ‘The Power to Innovate’ (PTI). The trial ended in August 2014 and it was determined that the arrangements would continue on a permanent basis.

This does not remove the governors’ right to permanently exclude a pupil or parental rights to appeal against any exclusion. It does mean, however, that any pupil permanently excluded will remain the responsibility of the school until alternative arrangements have been agreed. There are many secondary schools in Wiltshire that already choose not to use permanent exclusion. If a pupil acts in a way that means they can no longer be educated on the school site then the school arranges and funds appropriate offsite provision.

Primary behaviour support is largely carried out in schools and takes the form of preventative work and support for pupils as they move schools.

Wiltshire has an agreed Fair Access Protocol for hard to place pupils, full details can be found via the following links: http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/schools-in-year-fair-access-protocol-primary-schools.pdf

13 http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/schools--in-year-fair-access-protocol-secondary-schools.pdf

B14 Schools in the wider community

Wiltshire Council recognises that schools should act as a focus for the local community in a way that extends beyond the education of children who attend the school. The Council recognises the importance of schools engaging with their local communities in order to promote social inclusion and community cohesion as an integral part of ensuring success for all children. This is particularly important for communities with a high proportion of vulnerable families.

In cooperation with agencies and other organisations, many schools have facilities that they make available to the wider community, including sports and leisure complexes, ICT facilities, playgroups, childcare facilities, adult education and youth provision. School facilities are increasingly being made available for evening, weekend and holiday use making more effective use of the resources available.

B15 The expansion of schools

Department for Education (DfE) guidance gives a strong emphasis towards the expansion of successful and popular schools where possible. Wiltshire Council is committed to examining ways of increasing parental choice in school admissions and ensuring that places are located where parents want them, ideally serving the local community.

DfE guidance makes clear that there is no single definition of a successful and popular school but suggests that the following indicators should be taken into account:

 The school’s performance  The number of applications for places and admission appeals  Any other relevant information put forward by the school

Whilst there may be tensions between meeting parental choice for popular schools and the impact on other schools DfE guidance is quite clear that “the existence of surplus capacity in neighbouring, less popular and successful schools should not, in itself, prevent the addition of new places. Where proposals add to surplus capacity but there is a strong case for approval on parental preference and standards grounds, the presumption should be for approval if resources allow. The Local Authority in these cases will need to consider parallel action to remove the surplus capacity thereby created”.

A number of factors will, therefore, need to be taken into account when considering any proposal brought forward by successful and popular schools to expand:

 Are additional places needed in the area?  Are the proposals achievable in site terms?  Would the proposal raise or damage overall standards of education in the area?  Are there alternative proposals that might have a more positive impact on overall standards of education in the area?  What are the views of all those who would be affected or who have an interest in the proposal?  What would the transport implications be?  What impact on diversity of provision across the area would there be?  What are the capital resource implications for the proposal and any resultant action and does it represent a cost-effective use of public funds?

14 B16 Admissions policy

The admissions team administers Wiltshire’s Co-ordinated admissions scheme. This includes admissions to all schools including academies as well as ‘In Year Admissions’. The team also deals with the admission of hard to place pupils under the Fair Access Protocol, which is used to ensure these pupils are placed in a school quickly and with the appropriate support. The Protocol also ensures that no school receives any more than their fair share of difficult or challenging pupils by working with Head teachers to ensure the equitable distribution between schools.

There are a wide range of admissions authorities as each Academy, Foundation or Voluntary Aided School has its own Admission Policy. The admissions team coordinates all applications in order to place in excess of 19,000 children each year, including those of returning service personnel in schools. The knowledge, understanding and data that the team holds contributes to successful school organisation and planning. Admissions statistics, which are produced annually, are used to support the school place planning process, ensuring that sufficient places are provided to meet parental preference where possible.

The Council has an Admissions Forum consisting of the representatives of the different admissions authorities. The Forum discusses the Wiltshire arrangements for admissions and makes recommendations to admission authorities, including the LA, on all matters relating to admissions and Fair Access. Admission authorities, including the LA, must have regard to their advice in determining their admission arrangements, which includes expansions and contractions of school capacities.

Up to date details of the Wiltshire schools’ admissions processes can be found on the Wiltshire Council website via the following link: http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/schoolseducationandlearning/schoolsandcolleges/schooladmissi ons.htm

B17 Early years and childcare

In Wiltshire all three and four year old children are currently entitled to 15 hours funded part- time nursery education. By 2017 the 15 hours funded hours will increase to up to 30 hours for working parents. These places are available in pre-schools, full day-care nurseries, independent schools, nursery classes in schools and Childminders. Access to Free Entitlement funding by settings is dependent on the settings OFSTED Judgement. These can be school- located or privately run and many in Wiltshire are run through the voluntary sector. They are often situated on school sites; however use is also made of local facilities such as community and church halls and through private accommodation. The Government also provides part-time education for the most disadvantaged two year olds in the County and since 2014, 40% of disadvantaged two year olds have been entitled to 15 hours early education per week, in Wiltshire this funding is known locally as ‘Better 2gether Funding.’

Wiltshire Council has established Sure Start Children's Centres in each locality in Wiltshire. These are run by the voluntary sector and support a programme to deliver the best start in life for every child by bringing together early education, childcare, health and family support provision. Sure Start provision will be subject to review in 2015.

15 B18 14-19 Education and Skills (to 25 years for learners with learning difficulties and disabilities)

Wiltshire Council remains committed to working in partnership with all providers (schools, academies, college, and training providers) to review and develop educational provision in the county. Providers continue to work collaboratively within three partnership areas (The North Federation, The West Wilts Alliance and The Wessex Partnership) on joint strategies for developing 14-19 education and training opportunities. Collaborative approaches between schools, academies, college and work-based learning providers will continue to underpin this approach in Wiltshire.

Wiltshire currently has one Further Education provider, Wiltshire College, which has four delivery hubs providing education for learners aged 14 plus including specialist provision for learners with learning difficulties and disabilities. There are 21 secondary schools that provide post 16 education where the majority of students follow Level 3 qualifications.

The raising of the age of participation (RPA) to 18 should be factored into school place planning. Although some 5,000 students aged 16-18 years attend a school or academy based sixth form provision, many learners choose to attend Wiltshire College, other work-based learning providers or access provision beyond the county boundaries. The previous and current government agenda focusing on increasing apprenticeship provision is currently impacting on the range of opportunities available within Wiltshire and will require continued close working with employers to create opportunities and places.

The introduction of the RPA has led to a growth in learners staying at school or seeking full- time educational placements. The Education Funding Agency is responsible for allocating and funding post 16 places including capital developments. Wiltshire Council will work with schools to support the establishment of new, or expand existing, sixth forms based on the individual school circumstances of each proposal but is not responsible for approving or funding developments. The current number of Wiltshire 16-18 year olds in education, employment and training is 96.1% with 3.9% not in employment, education and training (NEET).

In all cases the aim of the Council will be to develop plans which ensure that adequate, high quality facilities are available to support learners aged 14-19 (25).

B19 Post 16

Many of the secondary schools in Wiltshire have sixth forms for post 16 academic and vocational courses. Alongside these there are four colleges and a 6th form college in Salisbury. Whilst the Local Authority has a statutory responsibility for ensuring sufficient school places of statutory school age (5-16), responsibility for the planning and funding of post 16 places rest with the Education Funding Agency (EFA) School organisation and planning issues.

C School Organisation and Planning Issues

C1 Influencing factors

There are three general factors likely to have the greatest influence on managing school places across the county over the next 5 years – the birth rate, housing development and the presence of the Armed Services in Wiltshire.

Birth rate

The demographic trend in the school population age range is largely driven by the birth rate. Interestingly and in contrast to national trends there has been a marked drop in the birth rate

16 in the last few years, when taken as a whole across Wiltshire.

Births in Wiltshire averaged 5400 births per year between 2005 and 2014, with peaks in 2005 and 2008 and a decline in recent years. The pressure on primary school places since 2009 has been significant and will continue to be so for the next 7 years as the peak 2005 to 2011 birth years feed through. In addition, these children will begin to feed into secondary education from September 2016.

Year of birth 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number 5619 5520 5693 5598 5477 5524 5481 5316 5165 5196

Wiltshire Births 2005 - 2014

5700

5600

5500

5400

5300

5200

5100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Comparison - births to NOR

Year of Birth 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5619 5520 5693 5598 5477 5524 5481 5316 5165 5196 Reception Entry 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (F) = Forecast 4759 4819 5113 5274 5158 5452 5574(F) 5304(F) 5169(F) 5011(F)

17 Reception NOR Sept.' 2009- 2018 5600 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Housing development

The Wiltshire Core Strategy sets out the housing totals and phasing for each Community Area - it should be noted that some of these areas differ from the Secondary Planning Areas detailed in this School Places Strategy (SPS). The density of housing development varies considerably across the county as detailed in the table below:

Number of Houses Allocated in Community Partnership Area Core Strategy Amesbury, Bulford & Durrington 2785 Bradford on Avon 780 Calne 1605 Chippenham 5090 Corsham 1395 Devizes 2500 Malmesbury 1395 Marlborough 920 Melksham 2370 Mere 285 Pewsey 600 Royal Wootton Bassett and Cricklade 1455 Salisbury 6060 Wilton 255 Southern Wiltshire 615 Tidworth 1920 Tisbury 420 Trowbridge 6975 Warminster 2060 Westbury 1615 Total number of houses 41,100

The scale of the programme of work required in order to provide school places for the houses identified in the Core Strategy should not be underestimated – 41,100 houses roughly equates to 12,500 primary and 8,400 secondary places across Wiltshire up to 2026. The full Wiltshire Core Strategy document can be accessed here:

http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/core-strategy-adoption.pdf

18 It is important that we work with Secondary School planning areas as this is required for national statistical returns on school places and basic need requirements. In producing the pupil forecasts for each Secondary School Area, account is taken of known housing allocations and planning permissions. It must be recognised, however, that the actual rate at which new housing is built depends on a mixture of economic and social factors. In forecasting the likely additional pupil product from such new housing, account will therefore need to be taken of changes in the age and household composition of the population and varying build out rates. Furthermore, a proportion of these new housing units may be taken up by families moving from elsewhere within the county and migration within the county will move the demand for places rather than simply increase the number of children.

Armed Services

The military presence in Wiltshire is an important factor in the planning of school places in particular areas of the county. There will be a significant increase in service personnel in the county due to the development of Army Super Garrisons which will see in excess of 4,200 additional military personnel and their families housed on a more permanent basis in Wiltshire. Liaison work is ongoing with the Army and Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO) to confirm the numbers, locations and timing of the troops and their families moving back to the Salisbury Plain area. The need to provide additional school places including early years, primary, secondary and specialist provision to support the returning military families is well understood and plans are underway to deliver the additional school places required. The proposals are included in the draft SPS Implementation Plan. Given the Armed Services continued involvement in conflicts abroad and the high public profile of some bases in Wiltshire it will be necessary to keep the situation under review throughout the period of the Plan.

C2 Population overview

The birth rate and numbers of children arising from military families is substantially higher than in the rest of the population. Account is taken of this when planning school places in relevant areas. Wiltshire is predominantly a rural county. The approach of the Local Authority to school place planning must therefore be designed to support dispersed populations in rural areas, those resident in small towns and the larger populations concentrated in the urban areas. The tables below show that there has been a significant increase in both Wiltshire’s overall demographic population and of school populations since 2009 with further increases projected. The effect of the up-turn in the economy following the recent recession and its impact on the housing market, and thus population mobility, will continue to be monitored throughout the period of this Plan.

Wiltshire total population overview

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Difference % Difference 2009-2014 2009-2014 Totals 457,480 461,250 464,550 466,290 479,634 482,410 + 24,930 + 5.17%

Wiltshire School population data 2009 to 2014

School Type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Difference % Difference 2009-2014 2009-2014 Primary 33,637 34,218 34,209 34,213 35,453 36,285 + 2,648 + 7.3% Secondary 29,655 29,177 29,787 29,788 29,424 29,064 - 591 - 2.0% Special 438 502 510 504 526 544 +106 +19.49% Total School Population 63,730 63,897 64,506 64,505 65,403 65,893 +2,523 +3.83%

19 School population comparison to PAN

% Average overall surplus School type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 places

Primary NOR 33,637 34,218 34,209 34,213 35,453 36,285 Total Primary 40,492 40,489 40,586 40,613 41,485 41,902 15% Net Capacity Secondary 29,655 29,177 29,787 29,788 29,424 29,064 NOR Total Secondary 32,808 33,119 33,568 33,420 33,684 33,684 12% Net Capacity

Primary school numbers by year group as at January 2015

Year R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Totals 5,497 5,320 5,399 5,142 5,007 4,945 4,881 36,191

This table shows the larger cohorts currently in the younger age ranges in primary schools and the lower numbers currently feeding into the secondary schools. From 2016/2017 the situation will begin to reverse as the larger cohorts of pupils feed into secondary schools. Wiltshire Council recognises the changes in birth rate and the need to plan for the extra places where there is no capacity, but will keep places under constant review as the impact of a changing birth rate, migration and more housing becomes clearer.

Secondary school numbers by year group as at January 2015

Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Total Totals 4,870 4,744 4,811 4,947 5,119 2,506 2,318 29,315

There has been a decline in secondary school numbers in recent years as the small cohorts move up from primary school. However, numbers begin to increase again from 2016 and will reach another peak when the present KS1 children reach secondary age – in 6 to 7 years time (2021/22 approx). These calculations and predictions do not take into account housing developments and local factors such as Armed Forces movements.

Although these tables give the overall picture in the county there will be significant variations between areas of the Local Authority with, for instance, a greater decline in primary numbers in the rural areas. Factors such as Armed Forces movement and the rate at which housing developments are built out will need to be monitored. The individual secondary area data gives greater analysis of the trends for that area.

Recent Government figures reveal that, nationally, the primary school population has been rising since 2009 and reached around 4.4m in 2015. However, the rate of increase is predicted to drop due to a reduction in births with the population projected to be broadly stable by 2024. In contrast, the secondary school population is projected to continue rising, reaching approximately 3.3m by 2024 (an increase of 20% on the 2015 population).

A summary analysis of the projections and issues in key areas is provided at section C3. Please refer to each of the individual areas appended to this document for more detailed information.

20 C3 Summary by School Planning Area

The planning of school places in Wiltshire is based on the geographical areas defined by the secondary school catchments and feeder schools aligned to them. Whilst all schools are included in the Strategy, they may not be grouped according to Area Board areas.

Amesbury

 Despite a drop in the birth rate in recent years, the impact of future troop movements and significant local housing development will increase demand for primary school places through expansion of existing and further new primary provision over the coming years.  The remaining housing identified in the core strategy is predicted to generate in excess of 300 additional secondary aged pupils and although there is a level of surplus currently it is anticipated that, along with the impact of army re-basing, expansion of The Stonehenge School will be required. This will be planned in the context of the capacity available at nearby Durrington Avon Valley College.

Bradford-on-Avon

 Despite a drop in the birth rate in recent years pressure on primary school places is set to increase due to additional housing planned for the area. A small increase in capacity is proposed.  There is already significant pressure on secondary school provision in this area due to children from the peak birth years feeding through from primary and those arising from the housing planned in the area. Currently, St Laurence School has a high proportion of pupils from outside its designated area securing places at the school and therefore as in-area numbers increase, students living outside the schools designated area will need to consider places at their local schools.

Calne

 The planned housing will increase pressure on both primary and secondary school places by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected this increase in demand can be contained within the existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided in the medium term where necessary. However, feasibility work needs to be undertaken to ensure that additional capacity can be delivered in a timely way if required in the future.

Chippenham

 The significant level of planned housing will increase pressure on both primary and secondary school places by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places in Chippenham town it is expected this increase in demand can be contained within the existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. However there will be a need to provide a number of new primary schools to serve the new community housing areas expected to be established in the medium to longer term. Additionally, as numbers increase in the secondary phase there will be a need to expand provision of the existing secondary schools in the medium term.

Corsham

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Corsham area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same. This pattern coupled with the impact of

21 modest housing development is likely to put existing primary provision under pressure and it is anticipated that a small extension to existing provision will be required in the medium term.  The new housing is predicted to generate a further 130 secondary aged pupils and taking this into consideration with housing proposals in neighbouring areas there will be a shortfall of secondary places. An expansion to The Corsham School will be required in the medium term.

Devizes

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Devizes area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places over the coming years.  Due to a legacy of surplus places across the Devizes area there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school immediately. Demand for school places at Devizes School needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at the nearby Lavington School.

Downton

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Downton area has, on average, remained the same but the area does experience peaks and troughs which can be seen in the appendix. Housing proposals identified in the Core Strategy for Downton, itself, indicate a shortfall of primary places in the next few years and a small expansion will be required at the primary school to meet this demand.  The housing is expected to generate 56 secondary aged pupils by 2026. Due to a legacy of surplus places it is unlikely that the additional pupils will have a significant impact on provision. The demand for school places at The Trafalgar School needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at the nearby secondary schools in Salisbury.

Durrington

 There has been a 6% increase in births over the last few years in the Durrington area. This increase coupled with the impact of future troop movements and some housing development will lead to a significant increase in demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years. Work is already underway to expand provision at Bulford Kiwi and St Leonards primary schools in the area. Additionally a new primary school to serve the Larkhill area, arising from the army rebasing programme is being planned.  There are 2,785 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Amesbury, Bulford and Durrington community areas of which approximately 60% have yet to be completed. The 707 SFA houses due to be constructed for the Army rebasing are not included in the Core Strategy. The combination of Core Strategy and SFA housing is predicted to generate over 300 additional secondary aged pupils. Plans are being progressed to expand Durrington Avon Valley College to meet the additional demand from military families relocating to the area in 2017 and 2018.

Lavington

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Lavington area has declined in recent years. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase overall demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

22  There are approximately 490 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Devizes community area (excluding Devizes town), which includes the villages in the Lavington secondary school cluster area. Currently, as Lavington School has a high proportion of pupils from outside its designated area and historically takes above PAN it is expected that any increase in demand can be contained within the school. The demand for school places at Lavington School needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at secondary schools in Devizes and Westbury. Lavington School is currently consulting on a proposal to provide post 16 provision on site.

Malmesbury

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Malmesbury area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a significant decline in 2014. Despite the lowered birth rate, the impact of housing development is likely to increase demand for primary school places in Malmesbury over the coming years. This demand will require additional places ideally through the expansion of existing school provision. There are 1,395 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Malmesbury community area of which approximately 46% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 151 secondary aged pupils. Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can be contained within existing accommodation until 2017/18. However, feasibility work is required to establish how best to provide the additional places required in the medium term.

Marlborough

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Marlborough area shows the birth rate has declined by approximately 5% in recent years. There are 920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Marlborough community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. This is predicted to generate up to 144 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a shortfall of places across the town by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short to medium term, with the likelihood that additional accommodation will be required in the longer term. Projections need to be kept under review.  The remaining housing is predicted to generate approximately 108 secondary aged pupils. Increasing numbers are already impacting on secondary provision, however, as St. John’s Marlborough historically takes above PAN there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school initially. Numbers will be kept under review.

Melksham

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Melksham area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a slight decline in 2014. However, the impact of housing development is likely to increase demand for primary school places in Melksham town over the coming years. The existing schools in Melksham are unable to be expanded due to site constraints and therefore any new housing will require a new primary school/site to be identified.  There are 2,370 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Melksham community area of which approximately 45% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 248 secondary aged pupils. Melksham Oak secondary school will need to be expanded to meet the demand from additional housing in the medium term.

23 Mere

 The birth rate in Mere has, on average, remained the same however some fluctuation has been seen over the last few years. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.  There is no secondary or sixth form provision in the Mere area, young people travel mostly to Gillingham School in Dorset or to other Wiltshire secondary schools within adjacent areas.

Pewsey

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Pewsey area has declined in recent years. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase overall demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.  Due to a legacy of surplus places, the current increase in primary numbers has little impact on secondary school provision at Pewsey Vale School over the next few years. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school until beyond the term covered by this document.

Purton

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Purton area has declined in recent years. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places in the town over the coming 10 years. The need for a new primary school to serve the new community development at Ridgeway Farm has previously been established and work is being progressed to open the new school in September 2016.  Due to a legacy of surplus places, the current increase in primary numbers has little impact on secondary school provision at Bradon Forest School over the next few years. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school until beyond the term covered by this document.

Royal Wootton Bassett

 The birth rate has, on average, remained the same, with occasional peaks and troughs which can be seen in the appendix. The data includes births up to 2014, however, the impact of new housing development is predicted to increase demand for primary school places in Royal Wootton Bassett over the coming years. There is expected to be a shortfall in primary places by 2017/18.  The current increase in primary numbers has already begun to impact on secondary school provision in Royal Wootton Bassett. Royal Wootton Bassett Academy historically takes above PAN and therefore has been able to accommodate the additional demand to date. Latest projections indicate that there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the impact from further housing and the opening of a new secondary Free School in South Swindon in September 2017, however further expansion of the school is expected in the medium term.

Salisbury

 The birth rate has remained fairly high and stable in Salisbury over the last few years despite peaks and troughs. This pattern coupled with the impact of significant housing

24 development will increase the demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years with a significant shortfall expected by 2026. Work is underway to provide additional places at Pembroke Park and Greentrees primary schools. In addition to this there will be a need to further expand existing primary schools along with the expected delivery of two new primary schools in new housing areas in the medium term.  Overall, there are 6,930 houses identified in the South Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Southern Wiltshire, Salisbury and Wilton community areas. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 972 secondary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of secondary places by 2026 with pressure on places likely to begin as early as academic year 2017/18. A strategic review of secondary places in Salisbury is to be undertaken in order that the most effective solution can be delivered to meet the demand for additional places in the medium and longer term.

Tidworth

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Tidworth area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a steep decline in 2014. However, the impact of future troop movements and significant housing development is expected to increase demand for primary school places over the coming years. Expansion of existing primary provision along with a new primary school in Ludgershall to support army rebasing, is proposed.  There are 1,920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Tidworth community area of which approximately 80% have yet to be completed. The 570 SFA houses due to be constructed for the Army rebasing are not included in the Core Strategy and are predicted to generate 228 secondary aged pupils. Therefore, the total predicted amount of secondary aged pupils is 564. The current increase in numbers will begin to impact on The Wellington Academy in 2019/20. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. Options for the provision of additional secondary places to meet the demand in the Tidworth area are currently being considered.

Tisbury

 The birth rate has, on average, remained the same apart from a significant peak in births in 2012. This pattern coupled with the impact of only modest housing development is likely to decrease demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years. As the peak 2012 birth year feeds through the demand for school places in the area may need to be planned in the context of the capacity available at primary schools across the border in Dorset. However, available figures do not currently suggest a shortfall.  There is no secondary or sixth form provision in the Tisbury area, young people travel mostly to Shaftesbury School in Dorset or to other Wiltshire secondary schools within adjacent areas. Trowbridge

 The birth rate has, on average, remained the same, with occasional peaks, however there are 6,975 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Trowbridge community area of which approximately 65% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 1,424 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026

25 with pressure on places in the town schools likely to begin as early as academic year 2017/18. It is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with expansion and additional accommodation provided where necessary. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built. The later stages of housing development in Trowbridge will require two new primary schools which will be provided through Section 106 agreements with the developer(s).  The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 987 secondary aged pupils. Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can be contained within existing accommodation until 2020. However, contingency plans need to be made now to ensure that additional secondary capacity can be put in place when required. The forecast for each of the Trowbridge secondary schools indicates that there is sufficient capacity to accommodate children from their catchment area until 2020. In light of the increasing pressure on secondary places in Bradford on Avon, approximately 150 pupils from the Trowbridge area who have historically got places at Bradford on Avon/St Laurence will no longer be able to and will require places in Trowbridge. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall in places by 2026. It is anticipated that a new secondary school located on the proposed Ashton Park development will be required in the longer term.

Warminster

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Warminster area shows the birth rate has declined slightly in recent years. However, the impact of housing development is expected to increase demand for primary school places in Warminster town over the coming years. Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. There are 2,060 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Warminster community area of which approximately 72% have yet to be completed. The later stages of housing development in Warminster and in particular the West Warminster Urban Expansion (WWUE) area will require a new primary school which will need to be provided through a Section 106 agreement with the developer(s) and suitably located to serve the new community.  The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 315 secondary aged pupils. The current increase in primary numbers will impact on secondary school provision from 2017/18 and cause a significant shortfall by 2026. Kingdown School is currently at capacity although historically the school has taken a proportion of pupils from outside the designated area. There is limited scope to expand Kingdown on its existing site and therefore satellite provision may be required to meet the demand arising from the WWUE.

Westbury

 The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Westbury area shows the birth rate has declined slightly in recent years. However, the impact of housing development is likely to significantly increase demand for primary school places in the town over the coming years. There are 1,615 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Westbury community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 240 primary aged pupils. Assuming the housing is delivered as planned, there will be a slight shortfall across the area by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. However, a small expansion of primary places will be required in the medium term.

26  The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 183 secondary aged pupils. The increase in primary numbers will have little impact on future secondary school provision in Westbury. Currently, a significant proportion of pupils from the Westbury area secure places at the Warminster Kingdown School. However, this proportion of pupils will progressively require places in Matravers School as Warminster Kingdown continues to experience an increase in catchment demand in the coming years.

Wroughton

 The birth rate in the Wroughton area has remained static in recent years following a slight peak in 2010. There is 1 primary age school in the area and, currently, a high proportion of pupils from outside the school’s designated area secure places at the school. There are 920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Marlborough community area (of which Wroughton school cluster area forms part) of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate up to 143 primary aged pupils across the Marlborough area therefore we may see some increase in pupils wishing to attend Broad Hinton CE Primary School. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there may be small short fall of places in this area by 2026. There is no secondary or sixth form provision in Wroughton so young people travel to Swindon or to other Wiltshire secondary schools within adjacent areas.

27 D Detailed planning area assessments

D1 Amesbury

There are 6 primary age schools in the Amesbury area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 16 age range. For sixth form, young people travel to post 16 provision in nearby community areas or to Hampshire. There are no special schools in the area. However, there are Resource Bases for Communication and Interaction at Woodford Valley CE Primary Academy and Christ the King Catholic School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Amesbury Archer Primary School Community Amesbury CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Christ the King Catholic School Voluntary Aided Newton Tony CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Shrewton CofE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Woodford Valley CE Primary Academy Academy Secondary The Stonehenge School Community

Births in Amesbury

Despite a drop in the birth rate in recent years, the impact of future troop movements and significant local housing development will increase demand for primary school places through expansion of existing and further new primary provision over the coming years.

Birth year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 189 192 208 166 177

Number of Births by Year

210

190

170

150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

28 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Amesbury

The need for school places essentially derives from the local child population, so pressure for primary places lags 4 years behind the number of births, and pressure for secondary places follows another 7 years later.

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 102% of pupils living in the Amesbury secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Amesbury area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 171 163 8 5% 1197 1150 47 4% 2014/15 178 192 -14 -8% 1246 1219 27 2% 2015/16 210 187 23 11% 1470 1256 214 15% 2016/17 210 199 11 5% 1470 1271 199 13% 2017/18 210 164 46 22% 1470 1267 203 14% 2018/19 210 175 35 17% 1470 1270 200 14% 2019/20 210 181 29 14 % 1470 1277 193 13%

2025/26 210 183 27 13% 1470 1249 221 15%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Amesbury Archer Primary School Community Amesbury CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Christ the King Catholic School Voluntary Aided

29 The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places of the Amesbury town schools listed above:

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R from Places Places remaining housing

2013/14 126 125 1 1% 882 833 0 49 6% 2014/15 133 133 0 0% 931 882 48 1 0% 2015/16 165 142 23 14% 1155 918 106 131 11% 2016/17 165 155 10 6% 1155 938 166 51 4% 2017/18 165 122 43 26% 1155 939 207 9 1% 2018/19 165 137 28 17% 1155 947 232 -24 -2% 2019/20 165 139 26 16% 1155 967 257 -69 -6%

2025/26 165 140 25 15% 1155 956 383 -184 -16%

There are 2,785 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Amesbury community area of which approximately 60% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 383 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing and windfall sites actually built. The impact of the troops returning from Germany to the Super Garrison will also significantly increase these figures from 2017.

The land identified at Kings Gate, Amesbury will provide 1,300 houses and the development will provide a new primary school. In the meantime, other developments are likely to be served by existing schools, with additional accommodation provided where necessary.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Amesbury

The Stonehenge School is the only secondary school serving the Amesbury community area. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for The Stonehenge School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 135 100 74% 2013 to 2014 150 116 77% 2014 to 2015 150 123 (Forecast) 82% Average ratio 78%

30 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at The Stonehenge School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing

2013/14 164 100 64 39% 820 613 0 207 25% 2014/15 164 116 48 29% 820 593 0 227 28% 2015/16 164 123 41 25% 820 590 0 230 28% 2016/17 164 157 7 4% 820 619 36 165 20% 2017/18 164 150 14 8% 820 646 80 94 11% 2018/19 164 160 4 2% 820 689 130 1 0% 2019/20 164 166 -2 -1% 820 717 165 -62 -8% 2020/21 164 173 -9 -5% 820 742 188 -110 -13% 2021/22 164 187 -23 -14% 820 748 211 -139 -17%

2025/26 164 181 -17 -10% 820 777 318 -275 -33%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The Wiltshire Core Strategy identifies 2,785 houses to be built in the Amesbury community area by 2026 of which approximately 60% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate in excess of 300 additional secondary aged pupils and although there is a level of surplus currently it is anticipated that along with the impact of army re-basing expansion of The Stonehenge School will be required. This will be planned in the context of the capacity available at nearby Durrington Avon Valley College.

Post 16 provision

The Stonehenge School does not currently offer post 16 education therefore pupils attend provision outside of the Amesbury community area.

31 Amesbury implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Expand Amesbury Christ the Provision of new Primary King school to 1.5FE and school on the Kings Gate MUGA, subject to planning development. New site being approval. secured, either as a new school or satellite site for existing primary school. Will provide 1FE and possibly 2FE dependent on site size and demand. Develop expansion scheme Phase 1 – expand The at The Stonehenge School. Stonehenge School to provide 250-275 places.

32 D2 Bradford on Avon

There are 4 primary age schools in the Bradford on Avon area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Christchurch CE Controlled Primary School Voluntary Controlled Fitzmaurice Primary School Community Churchfields, The Village School Voluntary Controlled Winsley CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Secondary St. Laurence School Academy

Births in Bradford on Avon

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Bradford on Avon area shows the birth rate has declined by approximately 8% in recent years, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years. A small increase in capacity is proposed.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 159 142 131 142 114

Number of Births by Year 160

140

120

100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Bradford on Avon

33 spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 87% of pupils living in the Bradford on Avon secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Bradford on Avon area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 147 151 -4 -3% 1029 973 56 5% 2014/15 151 139 12 8% 1057 992 65 6% 2015/16 150 133 17 11% 1050 986 64 6% 2016/17 150 123 27 18% 1050 987 63 6% 2017/18 150 132 18 12% 1050 968 82 8% 2018/19 150 106 44 29% 1050 940 110 10% 2019/20 150 123 27 18% 1050 912 138 13%

2025/26 150 123 27 18% 1050 912 138 13%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends. However, they do not include the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. This housing will be concentrated in the town therefore the information below focuses on primary provision within the town. It should be noted that, across the whole community area, approximately 100 children are expected from residential development. This will effectively remove any surplus places. The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Christchurch CE Controlled Primary School Voluntary Controlled Fitzmaurice Primary School Community

34 The capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Bradford on Avon town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R from Places Places remaining housing

2013/14 105 115 -10 -10% 735 706 0 29 4% 2014/15 105 98 7 7% 735 720 1 14 2% 2015/16 105 96 9 9% 735 709 19 7 1% 2016/17 105 90 15 14% 735 708 37 -10 -1% 2017/18 105 95 10 9% 735 697 54 -16 -2% 2018/19 105 73 32 30% 735 667 57 11 1% 2019/20 105 88 17 16% 735 655 58 22 3%

2025/26 105 88 17 16% 735 655 92 -12 -2%

Overall, there are 780 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Bradford-on-Avon community area, approximately 60% of which have already been constructed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 92 primary aged pupils which will increase pressure on places in the town schools, as shown in the table above, and will be constructed in the north of the town. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a small shortfall by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Bradford on Avon

The St. Laurence School is the only secondary school serving the Bradford on Avon community area and converted to an Academy on 1st August 2011. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for St. Laurence School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 125 224 179% 2013 to 2014 128 222 173% 2014 to 2015 139 224 (Forecast) 161% Average ratio 171%

35 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at the St. Laurence School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 224 224 0 0% 1120 1110 0 0 0% 2014/15 224 222 2 1% 1120 1099 0 0 0% 2015/16 224 224 0 0% 1120 1104 1 15 1% 2016/17 224 224 0 0% 1120 1111 15 -6 -1% 2017/18 224 224 0 0% 1120 1122 28 -30 -3% 2018/19 224 224 0 0% 1120 1121 43 -44 -4% 2019/20 224 224 0 0% 1120 1123 46 -49 -4% 2020/21 224 224 0 0% 1120 1123 49 -52 -5% 2021/22 224 224 0 0% 1120 1123 51 -54 -5%

2025/26 224 224 0 0% 1120 1123 64 -67 -6%

The current increase in primary numbers is already impacting upon secondary school provision as shown in the table above. Currently, St Laurence School has a high proportion of pupils from outside its designated area securing places at the school and therefore as in- area numbers increase, students living outside the schools designated area will need to consider places at their local schools.

Post 16 Provision

The St Laurence School is currently the only Secondary school serving the Bradford on Avon community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. St Laurence School 242 261 258 265 288 281

36 Post 16 provision

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) St. Laurence School’s desired sixth form size was 300. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 224 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 243. At present the school typically recruits to PAN in Year 7 leaving a shortfall of places for post 16 provision.

The following shows number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at St. Laurence School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1363 1120 1099 288 (Actual) 243 2020 1363 1120 1172 286 (Forecast) 243 2026 1363 1120 1183 286 (Forecast) 243

Bradford-on-Avon implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

0.5FE primary places required North of the town to cover short-term rise in pupil numbers. Need to determine whether temporary or permanent.

37 D3 Calne

There are 10 primary age schools in the Calne area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There is one special school in Calne and a Resource Base for Complex Needs at St. Dunstan CE Primary School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Cherhill CE Primary School Voluntary Aided Derry Hill CE Primary School Voluntary Aided Fynamore Primary School Community Heddington CE Primary School Voluntary Aided Hilmarton Primary School Community Holy Trinity CE School, Calne Academy Marden Vale CofE Academy Academy Priestley Primary School Community St. Nicholas CEVC Primary School, Bromham Voluntary Controlled Saint Edmund’s Catholic Academy Academy Secondary The John Bentley School Academy Special The Springfields Academy Academy

Births in Calne

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Calne area shows the birth rate has declined by approximately 5% in recent years, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 312 281 264 241 241

Number of Births by Year 320

300

280

260

240 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

38 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Calne

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 96% of pupils living in the Calne secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster; the remainder attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Calne area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 285 281 4 1% 1995 1907 88 4% 2014/15 294 301 -7 -2% 2058 1949 109 5% 2015/16 306 273 33 11% 2142 1960 182 8% 2016/17 306 261 45 15% 2142 1918 224 10% 2017/18 306 246 60 20% 2142 1903 239 11% 2018/19 306 244 62 20% 2142 1886 256 12% 2019/20 306 254 52 17% 2142 1866 276 13%

2025/26 306 254 52 17% 2142 1866 276 13%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends across the area. However, they do not include the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. This housing will be concentrated in the town.

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Fynamore Primary School Community Holy Trinity CE School, Calne Academy Priestley Primary School Community Marden Vale CofE Academy Academy Saint Edmund’s Catholic Academy Academy

39 The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Calne town schools listed above:

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing

2013/14 201 186 15 7% 1407 1253 0 154 11% 2014/15 210 198 12 6% 1470 1284 21 165 11% 2015/16 210 178 32 15% 1470 1291 47 132 9% 2016/17 210 181 29 14% 1470 1273 111 86 6% 2017/18 210 166 44 21% 1470 1271 174 25 2% 2018/19 210 165 45 21% 1470 1266 218 -14 -1% 2019/20 210 177 33 16% 1470 1256 225 -11 -1%

2025/26 210 177 33 16% 1470 1256 264 -50 -3%

There are 1,605 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Calne community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 264 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a small shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected this increase in demand can be contained within the existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided in the medium term where necessary. However, feasibility work needs to be undertaken to ensure that additional capacity can be delivered in a timely way if required in the future.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Calne

The John Bentley School is the only secondary school serving the Calne community area and converted to an Academy on 1st November 2011. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for The John Bentley School for the past three years is as follows.

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 261 164 63% 2013 to 2014 257 139 54% 2014 to 2015 262 142 (Forecast) 54% Average ratio 57%

40 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at The John Bentley School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 235 164 71 30% 1175 855 0 320 27% 2014/15 235 139 96 41% 1175 795 0 380 32% 2015/16 235 142 93 40% 1175 723 15 437 37% 2016/17 235 164 71 30% 1175 733 35 407 35% 2017/18 235 142 93 40% 1175 740 84 351 30% 2018/19 235 141 94 40% 1175 715 133 327 28% 2019/20 235 148 87 37% 1175 724 167 284 24% 2020/21 235 155 80 34% 1175 737 170 268 23% 2021/22 235 163 72 31% 1175 736 173 266 23%

2025/26 235 132 103 44% 1175 704 190 281 24%

The Wiltshire Core Strategy identifies 1,605 houses to be built in the Calne community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. This is expected to generate 190 secondary aged pupils by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected this increase in demand can be contained within the existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided in the medium term where necessary. However, feasibility work needs to be undertaken to ensure that additional capacity can be delivered in a timely way if required in the future.

Post 16 Provision

The John Bentley School is currently the only Secondary school serving the Calne community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. The John Bentley School 161 171 156 173 169 166

Post 16 capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) The John Bentley School’s desired sixth form size was 180. This is compatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 235 if the school was full. The maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN is 296.

41 The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at The John Bentley School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1471 1175 795 169 (Actual) 296 2020 1471 1175 907 109 (Forecast) 296 2026 1471 1175 888 127 (Forecast) 296

Calne implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

0.5FE primary provision required at Priestley Primary School an existing school site with sufficient site area available for development.

42 D4 Chippenham

There are 18 primary age schools and 3 secondary schools offering 11 to 19 education in the Chippenham area. There is one special school in the Chippenham community area. There are also Resource Bases for Complex Needs at Frogwell Primary School, Communication and Interaction at Charter Primary School and provision for Hearing Impaired students is available at Sheldon School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 By Brook Valley CE Primary School Academy Charter Primary School Community Christian Malford CofE Primary School Academy Frogwell Primary School Foundation Ivy Lane Primary School Community Kings Lodge School Community Kington St. Michael CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Lacock CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Langley Fitzurse CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Monkton Park Primary School Community Queen’s Crescent Primary School Academy Redland Primary School Community Seagry CEVA Primary Academy St. Mary’s RC Primary School Voluntary Aided St. Paul’s Primary School Community St. Peter’s CofE Academy Academy Stanton St. Quintin Primary School Community Sutton Benger CE Aided Primary School Voluntary Aided Secondary Abbeyfield School Community Hardenhuish School Academy Sheldon School Academy Special St. Nicholas School Community

Births in Chippenham

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Chippenham area shows the birth rate has declined slightly in recent years, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. However, the impact of housing development is predicted to increase demand for primary school places in Chippenham town over the coming years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 585 511 541 528 481

43 Number of Births by Year 600

580

560

540

520

500

480 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Chippenham

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 96% of pupils living in the Chippenham secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Chippenham area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 615 523 92 15% 4305 3564 741 17% 2014/15 623 488 135 22% 4361 3528 833 19% 2015/16 617 498 119 19% 4319 3493 826 19% 2016/17 621 486 135 22% 4347 3463 884 20% 2017/18 621 449 172 28% 4347 3422 925 21% 2018/19 621 460 161 26% 4347 3397 950 22% 2019/20 621 473 148 24% 4347 3375 972 22%

2025/26 621 472 149 24% 4347 3282 1065 24%

44 Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Charter Primary School Community Frogwell Primary School Foundation Ivy Lane Primary School Community Kings Lodge School Community Monkton Park Primary School Community Queen’s Crescent Primary School Academy Redland Primary School Community St. Mary’s RC Primary School Voluntary Aided St. Paul’s Primary School Community St. Peter’s CofE Academy Academy

The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Chippenham town schools listed above:

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R /shortfall /shortfall Places from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 471 402 69 15% 3297 2730 0 567 17% 2014/15 477 376 101 21% 3339 2704 2 633 19% 2015/16 471 374 97 21% 3297 2668 129 500 15% 2016/17 471 382 89 19% 3297 2656 236 405 12% 2017/18 471 337 134 28% 3297 2610 343 344 10% 2018/19 471 362 109 23% 3297 2612 475 210 6% 2019/20 471 364 107 23% 3297 2605 626 66 2%

2025/26 471 364 107 23% 3297 2555 1051 -309 -9%

The significant level of planned housing will increase pressure on both primary and secondary school places by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places in Chippenham town it is expected this increase in demand can be contained within the existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. However there will be a need to provide a number of new primary schools to serve the new community housing areas expected to be established in the medium to longer term.

The following extract from the DPD sets out further evidence around meeting the needs for primary education arising from proposals of the Chippenham Site Allocations Plan:

45 North Chippenham: based on the resolution to grant permission for development at North Chippenham (750 dwellings), an appropriate sized site (1.2Ha) and funding for a 1Form Entry (FE) (210 place) primary school is required. Currently there is the equivalent of two classes of surplus capacity at the nearest school St Pauls which could accommodate up to 60 of the children arising from the Birds Marsh Wood development, the remaining demand would then need to be met from the delivery of new school provision. The Council will however, wish to continue discussions with developers about the possibility of working collaboratively with the developers at Rawlings Green in order to secure a larger single site and financial contributions from each development to deliver a single larger primary school (min 2FE 420 place) able to serve both communities and in line with the Council’s preferred approach of larger, more sustainable primary schools, in new buildings. Any time delay in the delivery of a joint primary school to serve both communities would need to be closely managed to ensure the most appropriate transitional or temporary solution is provided until the permanent school is operational.

Rawlings Green: the Council is considering the application to provide 650 houses at Rawlings Green and similarly requires an appropriate sized site (1.2Ha) and funding for a 1 Form Entry (FE) (210 place) primary school. Currently there is the equivalent of one class surplus capacity at the nearest school Monkton Park which could accommodate up to 30 of the children arising from the Rawlings Green development the remaining demand would need to be met from the delivery of new school provision. However as mentioned above the Council’s preferred option is to facilitate discussions in order to secure a single larger site able to meet the demand for places arising from both housing developments so as to produce a larger primary school (min 2FE 420 place) in line with the Council’s preferred approach to provision.

East Chippenham: whilst some existing Chippenham primary schools have limited surplus places, no current primary school is within easy walking distance of this new development area as it is likely to develop and it would be unreasonable to expect primary age children to attend a school a significant distance from their local community. The 850 units proposed will give rise to approximately 264 primary-aged children, which will necessitate the provision of a site (1.8Ha) and financial contributions to deliver a new 1.5FE (315 place) primary school in line with Councils policy of only providing schools of 1FE/1.5FE/2FE size and so on. The new school site should ideally be located adjacent to or nearby the Abbeyfield Secondary School site at the heart of the new housing community and will provide a small amount of flexibility for growth in the future.

South West Chippenham: Proposals for approximately 1000 dwellings would be expected to produce approximately 310 additional primary aged pupils. Whilst some existing Chippenham primary schools have limited spare places, none of these are within reasonable walking distance of the development area. In addition, it is the Council’s policy to ensure a primary school is located appropriately to provide a community resource at the heart of a substantial sized development such as this. Therefore the preferred option is to provide an appropriate sized school site (1.8Ha) and financial contributions to deliver a new 1.5FE (315 place) primary school to serve the new community.

In order to ensure the co-ordinated delivery of new and improved primary schools over the Plan period the Council will seek financial contributions toward provision through s106 agreements and these will be agreed as a part of each scheme’s consent. Through the master-planning of each site and as a part of discussions on individual planning applications for the plan’s proposals, the Council will assess in detail the up to date needs for education capacity at that time. It is anticipated that any additional pupil demand arising from the planned Hunters Moon housing development and any further small scale and/or infill housing developments will be met from the remaining surplus spaces in existing primary schools in the town.

46 Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Chippenham

Historically, pupils from primary schools in the Chippenham community area have progressed to one of the three secondary schools serving Chippenham. St Nicholas School is the only special school in the Chippenham community area.

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Academy transfer date Abbeyfield School Community Not applicable Hardenhuish School Academy 1st September 2010 Sheldon School Academy 1st April 2011

Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for Abbeyfield School for the past three years is as follows:

Chippenham total Year 7 Transfer Ratio Year 6 2012 to 2013 494 83 17% 2013 to 2014 520 139 27% 2014 to 2015 533 160 (Forecast) 30% Average ratio 25%

The overall transfer ratio for Hardenhuish School for the past three years is as follows:

Chippenham total Year 7 Transfer Ratio Year 6 2012 to 2013 494 243 49% 2013 to 2014 520 242 46% 2014 to 2015 533 247 (Forecast) 46% Average ratio 47%

The overall transfer ratio for Sheldon School for the past three years is as follows:

Chippenham total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 494 280 57% 2013 to 2014 520 276 53% 2014 to 2015 533 282 (Forecast) 53% Average ratio 54%

Currently, the Chippenham secondary schools have a high proportion of pupils from outside the designated area securing places at the schools. In 2012 to 2013 the overall transfer rate for Chippenham was 123% (606 pupils) and in 2013 to 2014 the figure was 126% (657 pupils), both of which are significantly higher than the actual Chippenham total year 6 figures shown above.

47 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows combined historical actual and forecast numbers of pupils in the Chippenham area who are anticipated to attend the Chippenham secondary schools. The figures also include the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 694 609 85 12% 3470 3253 0 217 6% 2014/15 694 657 37 5% 3470 3229 0 241 7% 2015/16 694 689 5 1% 3470 3271 2 197 6% 2016/17 694 667 27 4% 3470 3281 106 83 2% 2017/18 694 634 60 9% 3470 3296 189 -15 0% 2018/19 694 628 66 9% 3470 3308 282 -120 -3% 2019/20 694 640 54 8% 3470 3290 385 -205 -6% 2020/21 694 673 21 3% 3470 3274 502 -306 -9% 2021/22 694 631 63 9% 3470 3238 622 -390 -11%

2025/26 694 595 99 14% 3470 3111 850 -491 -14%

There are 5,090 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Chippenham community area of which approximately 75% have yet to be completed. The significant level of planned housing will increase pressure on both primary and secondary school places by 2026. Due to the legacy of surplus places in Chippenham town it is expected this increase in demand can be contained within the existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. As numbers increase in the secondary phase there will be a need to expand provision of the existing secondary schools in the medium term.

The following extract from the DPD sets out further evidence around meeting the needs for secondary education arising from proposals of the Chippenham Site Allocations Plan:

The Chippenham urban area is shared between the three secondary schools, with the coordinated admissions process matching parental preferences to places as far as possible. It is assumed that the new urban developments would extend the shared area. Straight line distance from home to school is one important factor in each school’s admissions policy.

It is suggested that secondary age pupils from the North Chippenham site would view either Sheldon or Hardenhuish schools as readily accessible and further modeling is needed to see what scale of additional accommodation would be required at either school in order to accommodate up to 150 additional pupils from that site. For all of the other housing sites, the focus should be on utilising the available places at Abbeyfield School, and identifying the point in time where additional accommodation is required – currently this looks likely to be 2017/18. To enable the school to be expanded at this time, additional site area is required at

48 or adjacent to Abbeyfield School for more playing fields as well as the capital to extend the school buildings – both are needed to accommodate the additional pupils from the new housing. Feasibility work will be undertaken to establish the additional site and buildings elements required, together with any phasing, but the additional site area required is initially assessed as 2.5Ha, ideally on land adjacent to (or very close to) the Abbeyfield site. Beyond 2026 Abbeyfield will remain the focus of longer-term expansion of secondary provision.

Post 16 provision

There are three secondary schools which serve the Chippenham area - Abbeyfield School is maintained by the Local Authority whilst Hardenhuish School and Sheldon School are both Academies. All three schools offer post 16 provision.

The historical number of learners at post 16 for all Chippenham secondary schools.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Abbeyfield School 131 155 139 124 120 102 Hardenhuish School 331 339 333 336 316 311 Sheldon School 404 425 413 401 382 396

Post 16 Capacity

Abbeyfield School - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Abbeyfield School’s desired sixth form size was 200. This would be incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 180 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 169.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Abbeyfield School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1069 900 599 120 (Actual) 169 2020 1069 900 1142 132 (Forecast) 169 2026 1069 900 1379 129 (Forecast) 169

Hardenhuish School - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Hardenhuish School’s desired sixth form size was 360. This is compatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 234 as the school is full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 359.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Hardenhuish School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1529 1170 1223 316 (Actual) 359 2020 1529 1170 1245 311 (Forecast) 359 2026 1529 1170 1210 304 (Forecast) 359

49 Sheldon School - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Sheldon School’s desired sixth form size was 425. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 280 as the school is full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 400.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Sheldon School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1800 1400 1407 382 (Actual) 400 2020 1800 1400 1389 402 (Forecast) 400 2026 1800 1400 1346 393 (Forecast) 400

Chippenham implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Construct 1 classroom Provision of 3 new Primary extension at Ivy Lane school proposals to meet Primary School to return DPD requirements. school to 2FE. Review and develop plans to Expansion of Abbeyfield expand secondary provision School – phase 1. Keep in Chippenham. under review timing of any further expansion requirements.

50 D5 Corsham

There are 7 primary age schools in the Corsham area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area. However, there is a Resource Base for Communication and Interaction at Corsham Primary School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Box CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Colerne CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Corsham Primary School Academy Corsham Regis Primary School Academy Lypiatt Primary School Community Neston Primary School Community St. Patrick’s Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided Secondary The Corsham School Academy

Births in Corsham

The birth rate has, on average, remained the same, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is likely to put existing primary provision under pressure and it is anticipated that a small extension to existing provision will be required in the medium term.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 254 282 256 231 245

Number of Births by Year 300

280

260

240

220 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Corsham

51 The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 90% of pupils living in the Corsham secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster; the remainder attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows numbers of pupils in the primary age range across the Corsham area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 251 227 24 10% 1757 1553 204 12% 2014/15 251 225 26 10% 1757 1579 178 10% 2015/16 251 252 -1 0% 1757 1612 145 8% 2016/17 251 232 19 8% 1757 1633 124 7% 2017/18 251 220 31 12% 1757 1628 129 7% 2018/19 251 229 22 9% 1757 1604 153 9% 2019/20 251 231 20 8% 1757 1604 153 9%

2025/26 251 231 20 8% 1757 1604 153 9%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends. However, they do not include the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. At present, the housing identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy for the Corsham area will predominantly affect the town schools.

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Corsham Primary School Academy Corsham Regis Primary School Academy St. Patrick’s Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided

52 The following table shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Corsham town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 158 147 11 7% 1106 975 0 131 12% 2014/15 158 138 20 13% 1106 992 0 114 10% 2015/16 158 158 0 0% 1106 999 7 100 9% 2016/17 158 150 8 5% 1106 1017 21 68 6% 2017/18 158 150 8 5% 1106 1013 39 54 5% 2018/19 158 144 14 9% 1106 992 68 46 4% 2019/20 158 150 8 5% 1106 1002 91 13 1%

2025/26 158 150 8 5% 1106 1002 191 -87 -8%

There are 1,395 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Corsham community area of which approximately 46% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 191 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a shortfall by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. However, contingency plans need to be made to ensure that additional capacity can be delivered in a timely way if required in the future.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Corsham

The Corsham School is the only secondary school serving the Corsham community area and converted to an Academy in April 2011. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for The Corsham School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 199 198 99% 2013 to 2014 199 202 101% 2014 to 2015 219 217 (Forecast) 99% Average ratio 100%

53 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at The Corsham School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 230 198 32 14% 1150 1081 0 69 6% 2014/15 230 202 28 12% 1150 1049 0 101 9% 2015/16 230 217 13 6% 1150 1047 0 103 9% 2016/17 230 209 21 9% 1150 1036 8 106 9% 2017/18 230 219 11 5% 1150 1041 18 91 8% 2018/19 230 238 -8 -3% 1150 1080 40 30 3% 2019/20 230 229 1 0% 1150 1107 60 -17 -1% 2020/21 230 230 0 0% 1150 1120 74 -44 -4% 2021/22 230 223 7 3% 1150 1133 82 -65 -6%

2025/26 230 227 3 1% 1150 1126 130 -106 -9%

There are 1,395 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Corsham community area of which approximately 46% have yet to be completed. The new housing is predicted to generate a further 130 secondary aged pupils and taking this into consideration with housing proposals in neighbouring areas there will be a shortfall of secondary places. An expansion to The Corsham School will be required in the medium term.

Post 16 provision

The Corsham School is currently the only Secondary school serving the Corsham community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. The Corsham School 285 263 235 256 264 238

Post 16 Capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Corsham School’s desired sixth form size was 300. This is compatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 230 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 421. At present the school typically recruits above PAN in Year 7 but the overall number of pupils including post 16 is less than the maximum capacity of the school.

54 The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at The Corsham School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1571 1150 1076 264 (Actual) 421 2020 1571 1150 1194 235 (Forecast) 421 2026 1571 1150 1240 263 (Forecast) 421

Corsham implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Provision of 0.5FE Primary places in the Broadwood area. Develop proposal for phase Phase 1 expansion of The 1 expansion at The Corsham Corsham School on existing School. site.

55 D6 Devizes

There are 11 primary age schools in the Devizes area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are two special schools in the area and a Resource Base for Complex Needs at Wansdyke Community School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 All Cannings CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Bishops Cannings CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Chirton CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Devizes Southbroom Infants School Community Five Lanes Primary School Voluntary Controlled Nursteed Community Primary School Community Rowde CE Primary Academy Academy Southbroom St. James’ Academy Academy St. Joseph’s Catholic Primary School Academy The Trinity CEVA Primary School, Devizes Voluntary Aided Wansdyke Community School Academy Secondary Devizes School Academy Special Downland School Community Rowdeford School Community

Births in Devizes

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Devizes area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a peak in 2010 and a significant decline in 2014. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014 and can be seen in the table and graph below. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places over the coming years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 326 371 333 341 263

Number of Births by Year 400

375

350

325

300

275

250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

56 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Devizes

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 89% of pupils living in the Devizes secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Devizes area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 320 256 64 20% 2240 1816 424 19% 2014/15 320 296 24 7% 2240 1873 367 16% 2015/16 320 266 54 17% 2240 1899 341 15% 2016/17 320 275 45 14% 2240 1942 298 13% 2017/18 320 236 84 26% 2240 1855 385 17% 2018/19 320 249 71 22% 2240 1872 368 16% 2019/20 320 257 63 20% 2240 1862 378 17%

2025/26 320 257 63 20% 2240 1862 378 17%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Bishops Cannings CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Devizes Southbroom Infants School Community Nursteed Community Primary School Community St. Joseph’s Catholic Primary School Academy The Trinity CEVA Primary School, Devizes Voluntary Aided Wansdyke Community School Academy

57 The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Devizes town schools listed above:

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 244 195 49 20% 1708 1332 0 376 22% 2014/15 240 219 21 9% 1680 1366 2 312 19% 2015/16 240 197 43 18% 1680 1392 12 276 16% 2016/17 240 219 21 9% 1680 1454 29 197 12% 2017/18 240 182 58 24% 1680 1392 49 239 14% 2018/19 240 195 45 19% 1680 1424 87 169 10% 2019/20 240 198 42 18% 1680 1428 108 144 9%

2025/26 240 198 42 18% 1680 1428 208 44 3%

There are 2,500 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Devizes community area of which approximately 40% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 208 primary aged pupils.

Due to a legacy of surplus places across the Devizes area there is unlikely to be significant impact on the town schools immediately. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will still be a slight surplus in secondary school places in Devizes town by 2026. The precise surplus will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Devizes

The Devizes School is the only secondary school serving the Devizes community area and converted to an Academy in September 2012. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for The Devizes School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 256 167 65% 2013 to 2014 246 163 66% 2014 to 2015 224 145 (Forecast) 65% Average ratio 65%

58 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at The Devizes School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 223 167 56 25% 1115 900 0 215 19% 2014/15 223 163 60 27% 1115 855 0 260 23% 2015/16 223 145 78 35% 1115 788 11 316 28% 2016/17 223 172 51 23% 1115 778 28 309 28% 2017/18 223 201 22 10% 1115 820 50 245 22% 2018/19 223 162 61 27% 1115 820 75 220 20% 2019/20 223 186 37 17% 1115 843 103 169 15% 2020/21 223 185 38 17% 1115 881 115 119 11% 2021/22 223 181 42 19% 1115 889 129 97 7%

2025/26 223 161 62 28% 1115 833 189 93 8%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

Due to a legacy of surplus places across the Devizes area there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school immediately. Demand for places at Devizes School needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at the nearby Lavington School. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will still be a slight surplus in secondary school places in Devizes town by 2026. The precise surplus will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Post 16 Provision

The Devizes School is currently the only Secondary school serving the Devizes community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. The Devizes School 188 177 190 203 175 187

59 Post 16 capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) The Devizes School’s desired sixth form size was 230. This is compatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 223 if the school was full. The maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN is 240.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at The Devizes School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1355 1115 855 175 (Actual) 240 2020 1355 1115 1000 126 (Forecast) 240 2026 1355 1115 1002 161 (Forecast) 240

Devizes implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Keep pupil numbers under review to determine both primary and secondary provision.

60 D7 Downton

There are 7 primary age schools in the Downton area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 16 age range. There are no special schools in the area; however, there is a Resource Base for Physical Impairment at The Trafalgar School at Downton.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Alderbury & West Grimstead CE Primary School Voluntary Aided Coombe Bissett CE Primary School Voluntary Aided Downton CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Longford CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Morgan’s Vale and Woodfalls CE Primary School Academy The New Forest CEVA Primary School at Landford, Voluntary Aided Nomansland & Hamptworth Whiteparish All Saints CE Primary School Voluntary Aided Secondary The Trafalgar School at Downton Foundation

Births in Downton

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Downton area has, on average, remained the same but the area does experience peaks and troughs which can be seen in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. Housing proposals identified in the Core Strategy for Downton, itself, indicate a shortfall of primary places in the next few years and a small expansion will be required at the primary school to meet this demand.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 243 256 233 217 253

Number of Births by Year 260

250

240

230

220

210 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

61 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Downton

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 79% of pupils living in the Downton secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Downton area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 160 122 38 24% 1120 868 0 252 22% 2014/15 151 152 -1 -1% 1057 909 1 147 14% 2015/16 160 140 20 12% 1120 922 7 191 17% 2016/17 160 128 32 20% 1120 933 18 169 15% 2017/18 160 125 35 22% 1120 942 35 143 13% 2018/19 160 113 47 29% 1120 916 43 161 14% 2019/20 160 126 34 21% 1120 907 51 162 14%

2025/26 160 122 38 24% 1120 861 73 186 17%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

There are 190 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Downton community area, around 70% of which have yet to be constructed. The housing identified in the Core Strategy for Downton, itself, is expected to generate 73 primary aged pupils and will create a shortfall of primary places in the next few years. A small expansion will be required at the primary school to meet this demand.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Downton

The Trafalgar School is the only secondary school serving the Downton community area catering for the 11 to 16 age range. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

62 The overall transfer ratio for The Trafalgar School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 115 90 78% 2013 to 2014 115 109 95% 2014 to 2015 127 110 (Forecast) 87% Average ratio 87%

The table below shows numbers of pupils in the secondary age range across the Downton community area with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places NOR from Places /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 90 90 0 0% 450 540 0 -90 -20% 2014/15 116 109 7 6% 580 544 0 36 6% 2015/16 116 110 6 5% 580 535 1 44 8% 2016/17 120 100 20 17% 600 527 5 68 11% 2017/18 135 103 32 24% 675 513 13 149 22% 2018/19 135 123 12 9% 675 544 25 106 16% 2019/20 135 120 15 11% 675 555 31 89 13% 2020/21 135 111 24 18% 675 555 36 84 12% 2021/22 135 135 0 0% 675 590 41 44 6%

2025/26 135 101 34 25% 675 586 56 33 5%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

There are 190 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Downton community area, around 70% of which have yet to be constructed. This is expected to generate 56 secondary aged pupils by 2026. Due to a legacy of surplus places it is unlikely that the additional pupils will have a significant impact on provision as shown in the table above. The precise surplus/shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built. Demand for school places at The Trafalgar School needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at the nearby secondary schools in Salisbury.

Post 16 provision

The Trafalgar School does not currently offer post 16 education therefore pupils attend provision outside of the Downton community area.

63 D8 Durrington

There are 7 primary age schools in the Durrington area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Bulford St Leonard’s CE(VA) Primary School Voluntary Aided Durrington All Saints CEVC Infants School Voluntary Controlled Durrington CE Controlled Junior School Voluntary Controlled Figheldean St Michael’s CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Kiwi School, Bulford Community Larkhill Primary School Community Netheravon All Saints CE Primary School Academy Secondary Avon Valley College Foundation

Births in Durrington

There has been a 6% increase in births over the last few years in the Durrington area. This increase coupled with the impact of future troop movements and some housing development will lead to a significant increase in demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years. Work is already underway to expand provision at Bulford Kiwi and St Leonards primary schools in the area. Additionally a new primary school to serve the Larkhill area, arising from the army rebasing programme is being planned.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 284 315 327 311 335

Number of Births by Year 340

320

300

280 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Durrington

Normally, the need for school places essentially derives from the local child population, so pressure for primary places lags 4 years behind the number of births, and pressure for secondary places follows another 7 years later.

64 Historic trends cannot be used to inform the future demand for places in Durrington as the numbers of primary age children predominately relate to the deployment of military personnel and their families. In accordance with the army re-basing programme and within the Special Planning Area that will see over 4200 troops relocated to the Salisbury Plain area and some to Durrington in particular, work is already in progress to expand Bulford Kiwi and Bulford St Leonards Primary Schools so that places are available to accommodate children as they return from Germany from 2016 onwards.

Additionally a site for a new 2FE primary school in the Larkhill area has been agreed in order that the Figheldean CE Primary School can relocate and substantially expand into new larger buildings in order to accommodate the increasing numbers of military children expected in 2017 and 2018. Numbers will be kept under review beyond 2018 to ensure there are sufficient places in the right locations moving forward.

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The table below is the current best estimate of provision required across Bulford town taking account of current birth data and predicted housing. The figures are calculated by projecting forward the birth rate including army rebasing data, the likely take up of places based on past trends and the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed.

The following schools serve Bulford town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Bulford St Leonard’s CE(VA) Primary School Voluntary Aided Kiwi School, Bulford Community

The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Bulford town schools listed above:

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year R Year R Year R Places NOR Product /shortfall Surplus Places from Places /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 71 75 -4 -6% 497 418 0 79 16% 2014/15 71 77 -6 -8% 497 415 1 81 16% 2015/16 105 80 25 24% 735 454 3 278 38% 2016/17 105 87 18 17% 735 503 4 228 31% 2017/18 105 95 10 9% 735 548 4 183 25% 2018/19 105 94 11 10% 735 579 173 -17 -2% 2019/20 105 89 16 15% 735 594 173 -32 -4%

2025/26 105 89 16 15% 735 632 173 -70 -9%

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Durrington

Avon Valley College is the only secondary school serving the Durrington area. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to

65 independent schools and schools in other areas. The overall transfer ratio for Avon Valley College for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 144 99 69% 2013 to 2014 155 103 66% 2014 to 2015 150 135 (Forecast) 90% Average ratio 75%

The table below is the current best estimate of provision required including anticipated Army SFA housing data. It shows the number of pupils of secondary age at Avon Valley College with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 181 100 81 45% 905 522 0 383 42% 2014/15 185 103 82 44% 925 530 0 395 43% 2015/16 185 135 50 27% 925 557 1 367 40% 2016/17 185 128 57 31% 925 566 3 356 38% 2017/18 185 141 44 24% 925 593 287 45 5% 2018/19 185 177 8 4% 925 677 300 -52 -6% 2019/20 185 192 -7 -4% 925 764 301 -140 -15% 2020/21 185 190 -5 -3% 925 819 302 -196 -21% 2021/22 185 210 -25 -13% 925 899 303 -277 -30%

2025/26 185 221 -36 -19% 925 1058 306 -439 -47%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

There are 2,785 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Amesbury, Bulford and Durrington community areas of which approximately 60% have yet to be completed. The 707 SFA houses due to be constructed for the Army rebasing are not included in the Core Strategy. The combination of Core Strategy and SFA housing is predicted to generate over 300 additional secondary aged pupils. Plans are being progressed to expand Durrington Avon Valley College to meet the additional demand from military families relocating to the area in 2017 and 2018.

Demand for school places at the school needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at The Stonehenge School in Amesbury as we anticipate that, given the overall

66 increase in population, more places will need to be commissioned in the future across the Amesbury and Durrington community areas.

Post 16 provision

Avon Valley College is currently the only secondary school serving the Durrington area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Avon Valley College 73 93 79 93 87 76

Post 16 capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Avon Valley College’s desired sixth form size was 280. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 185 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 137. However, at present the school typically does not recruit to PAN in Year 7 leaving ample surplus places for Sixth form provision. The imbalance between current PAN and post 16 places is predicted to become an issue in 2024 based on current forecasts.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Avon Valley College using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11-16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1062 925 617 87 (Actual) 137 2020 1062 925 1120 99 (Forecast) 137 2026 1062 925 1364 194 (Forecast) 137

There is a shared aspiration for joint post 16 provision between Amesbury Stonehenge School and Durrington Avon Valley College. If successful, the need for additional post 16 capacity will be required before 2026.

Durrington implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Expansion of Kiwi School from 1FE to 2FE – already in progress. Expansion of St. Leonard’s Primary School to 1.5FE – already in progress. Provision of new 2FE Primary school at Larkhill (relocation of Figheldean Primary School to new site). Progress scheme to expand Avon Valley College to meet Army rebasing timescale.

67 D9 Lavington

There are 5 primary age schools in the Lavington area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 16 age range. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 The Holy Trinity CE Primary Academy Academy Dauntsey Academy Primary School Academy St. Barnabas CE School, Market Lavington Voluntary Controlled St. Thomas a’Becket CE (Aided) Primary School Voluntary Aided Urchfont CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Secondary Lavington School Academy

Births in Lavington

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Lavington area has declined in recent years which can be seen in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase overall demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 47 57 40 33 38

Number of Births by Year 60

30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Lavington

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN)

68 compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 155% of pupils living in the Lavington secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Lavington area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Housing Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Pupil /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R Product Places Places

2013/14 90 80 10 11% 630 561 0 69 11% 2014/15 90 73 17 19% 630 559 4 67 11% 2015/16 92 77 15 16% 644 560 13 71 11% 2016/17 92 68 24 26% 644 540 14 90 14% 2017/18 92 65 27 29% 644 524 15 105 16% 2018/19 92 66 26 28% 644 523 15 106 16% 2019/20 92 69 23 25% 644 500 15 129 20%

2025/26 92 70 22 24% 644 478 15 151 23%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

There are approximately 490 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Devizes community area (excluding Devizes town), which includes the villages in the Lavington secondary school cluster area. Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. However, contingency plans need to be made to ensure that additional capacity can be delivered in a timely way if required in the future.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand at Lavington School

Lavington School is the only secondary school serving the Lavington community area. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas. The overall transfer ratio for Lavington School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 89 147 165% 2013 to 2014 77 120 156% 2014 to 2015 76 134 (Forecast) 176% Average ratio 166%

69 The table below shows pupils in the secondary age range across the Lavington community area with the percentage of surplus/shortfall of places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 137 147 -10 -7% 685 706 0 -21 3% 2014/15 137 120 17 12% 685 697 0 -12 -2% 2015/16 137 134 3 2% 685 693 3 -11 -2% 2016/17 137 137 0 0% 685 683 10 -8 -1% 2017/18 137 137 0 0% 685 677 10 -2 0% 2018/19 137 125 12 9% 685 655 10 20 3% 2018/19 137 137 0 0% 685 672 10 3 0% 2019/20 137 137 0 0% 685 675 10 0 0% 2020/21 137 131 6 4% 685 669 10 6 1% 2021/22 137 135 2 1% 685 667 10 8 1%

2025/26 137 124 13 9% 685 641 10 34 5%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

Currently, as Lavington School has a high proportion of pupils from outside its designated area and historically takes above PAN it is expected that any increase in demand can be contained within the school. The demand for school places at Lavington School needs to be planned in the context of the capacity available at secondary schools in Devizes and Westbury.

Post 16 provision

Lavington School is currently consulting on a proposal to provide post 16 on site.

70 D10 Malmesbury

There are 11 primary age schools in the Malmesbury area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area; however, there is a Resource Base for Complex Needs at Malmesbury CE Primary School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Brinkworth Earl Danby’s CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Crudwell CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Hullavington CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Lea and Garsdon CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Luckington Community School Community Malmesbury CE Primary School Academy Minety CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Oaksey CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Sherston CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. Joseph’s Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided Somerford’s Walter Powell Primary Academy Secondary Malmesbury School Academy

Births in Malmesbury

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Malmesbury area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a significant decline in 2014. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014 and can be seen in the table and graph below. However, the impact of housing development is likely to increase demand for primary school places in Malmesbury town over the coming years. This demand will require additional places ideally through the expansion of existing school provision.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 221 198 200 202 149

Number of Births by Year 240

220

200

180

160

140 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

71 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Malmesbury

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 104% of pupils living in the Malmesbury secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster. This is due in part to St. Joseph’s Catholic Primary School attracting Catholic pupils from a wider designated extending beyond the Malmesbury area. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Malmesbury area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 252 218 34 13% 1764 1564 200 11% 2014/15 251 230 21 8% 1757 1581 176 10% 2015/16 252 214 38 15% 1764 1567 197 11% 2016/17 256 210 46 18% 1792 1559 233 13% 2017/18 256 212 44 17% 1792 1573 219 12% 2018/19 256 163 93 36% 1792 1492 300 17% 2019/20 256 200 56 22% 1792 1450 342 19%

2025/26 256 200 56 22% 1792 1399 393 22%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Lea and Garsdon CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Malmesbury CE Primary School Academy St. Joseph’s Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided

72 The table below shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Malmesbury town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 95 86 9 9% 665 660 0 5 1% 2014/15 100 97 3 3% 700 658 8 34 5% 2015/16 101 90 11 11% 707 658 11 38 5% 2016/17 101 89 12 12% 707 653 23 31 4% 2017/18 101 89 12 12% 707 655 61 -9 -1% 2018/19 101 70 31 31% 707 626 104 -23 -3% 2019/20 101 85 16 16% 707 608 122 -23 -3%

2025/26 101 85 16 16% 707 592 198 -83 -12%

Even without the addition of housing it can be seen that there is already pressure on Primary pupil places in the town schools. This situation is currently eased by parents sending their children to schools outside of the town.

There are 1,395 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Malmesbury community area of which approximately 46% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 198 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there will be a shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Despite a lowered birth rate, provision of school places for Primary pupils in Malmesbury continues to be an issue for the foreseeable future. The area is currently subject to an ongoing Primary review to ascertain the best approach to providing the additional places required. In the meantime, pupils are likely to be served by existing schools with additional accommodation provided where necessary.

Within the DPD the preferred option for expansion of primary places in Malmesbury town is the provision of additional capacity at Malmesbury Primary School. It is anticipated this will be achieved with the provision of additional site area adjacent to the existing school site. If this is not possible the fallback position will be further provision linked to Malmesbury Primary but located on a remote site.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Malmesbury

Malmesbury School is the only secondary school serving the Malmesbury community area and converted to an Academy in August 2011. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

73 The overall transfer ratio for Malmesbury School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 198 200 101% 2013 to 2014 228 243 107% 2014 to 2015 228 229 (Forecast) 100% Average ratio 103%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at Malmesbury School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 228 201 27 12% 1140 1027 0 113 10% 2014/15 228 243 -15 -7% 1140 1050 0 90 8% 2015/16 228 229 -1 0% 1140 1080 5 55 5% 2016/17 228 219 9 4% 1140 1097 15 28 2% 2017/18 228 198 30 13% 1140 1092 26 22 2% 2018/19 228 245 -17 -7% 1140 1133 61 -54 -5% 2019/20 228 243 -15 -7% 1140 1133 96 -89 -8% 2020/21 228 222 6 3% 1140 1126 113 -99 -9% 2021/22 228 231 -3 -1% 1140 1138 128 -126 -11%

2025/26 228 163 65 28% 1140 1031 151 -42 -4%

There are 1,395 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Malmesbury community area of which approximately 46% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 151 secondary aged pupils. Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can be contained within existing accommodation until 2017/18. However, feasibility work is required to establish how best to provide the additional places required in the medium term. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Post 16 provision

Malmesbury School is currently the only Secondary school serving the Malmesbury community area and offering post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Malmesbury School 202 220 230 220 229 211

74 Post 16 Capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Malmesbury School’s desired sixth form size was 240. This is compatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 228 if the school was full. The maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN is 244. The imbalance between current PAN and post 16 places will become an issue in 2026 as the planned residential development progresses, as shown in the table below.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Malmesbury School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1384 1140 1050 229 (Actual) 244 2020 1384 1140 1239 240 (Forecast) 244 2026 1384 1140 1175 252 (Forecast) 244

Malmesbury implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Expansion of primary provision in Malmesbury at a location yet to be determined. Planning for small extension Delivery of expansion to to Malmesbury School. secondary school provision through extension to Malmesbury School. (Note: PFI school).

75 D11 Marlborough

There are 12 primary age schools in the Marlborough area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area however there are Resource Bases for Complex Needs at St. Mary’s CE Infant School and St. Peter’s CEVC Junior School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Baydon St. Nicholas CE School Voluntary Aided Chilton Foliat CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Great Bedwyn CE School Voluntary Controlled Kennet Valley CE Aided Primary School Voluntary Aided Ogbourne St. George & St. Andrew CE Cont. Primary Voluntary Controlled School Preshute CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Ramsbury Primary School Community St. Katharine’s CofE (VC) Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. Mary’s CE Infant School Voluntary Controlled St. Michael’s CE Aided Primary School, Aldbourne Voluntary Aided St. Peter’s CEVC Junior School Voluntary Controlled Shalbourne CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Secondary St. John’s Marlborough - an International Academy Academy

Births in Marlborough

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Marlborough area shows the birth rate has declined by approximately 5% in recent years, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 205 193 183 201 148

Number of Births by Year 220

200

180

160

140 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

76 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Marlborough

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 118% of pupils living in the Marlborough secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster. This is due in part to the primary schools in the cluster attracting pupils from a wider designated extending beyond the Marlborough area. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Marlborough area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 252 221 31 12% 1764 1600 164 9% 2014/15 255 241 14 5% 1785 1621 164 9% 2015/16 264 252 12 4% 1848 1640 208 11% 2016/17 264 227 37 14% 1848 1634 214 12% 2017/18 264 241 23 9% 1848 1631 217 12% 2018/19 264 206 58 22% 1848 1594 254 14% 2019/20 264 219 45 17% 1848 1599 249 13%

2025/26 264 219 45 17% 1848 1599 249 13%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Preshute CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. Mary’s CE Infant School Voluntary Controlled St. Peter’s CEVC Junior School Voluntary Controlled

77 The following table shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Marlborough town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 90 76 14 16% 630 546 0 84 13% 2014/15 90 74 16 18% 630 523 1 106 17% 2015/16 90 83 7 8% 630 530 5 95 15% 2016/17 90 64 26 29% 630 519 21 90 14% 2017/18 90 80 10 11% 630 519 41 70 11% 2018/19 90 68 22 24% 630 504 63 63 10% 2019/20 90 79 11 12% 630 512 84 34 5%

2025/26 90 79 11 12% 630 512 144 -26 -4%

There are 920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Marlborough community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. This is predicted to generate up to 144 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a shortfall of places across the town by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

In addition, the LA was successful under the Government’s recent Priority Schools Building Programme to rebuild St. Mary’s Infant and St. Peter’s Junior Schools as one school. This will provide a 2FE Primary school on a single site which is due for delivery during the academic year 2016/2017.

Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short to medium term, with the likelihood that additional accommodation will be required in the longer term. Projections need to be kept under review.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Marlborough

St. John’s Marlborough is the only secondary school serving the Marlborough community area and converted to an Academy in September 2012. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for St. John’s Marlborough for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 227 266 117% 2013 to 2014 215 251 117% 2014 to 2015 233 252 (Forecast) 108% Average ratio 114%

78 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at St. John’s Marlborough with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 252 266 -14 -6% 1260 1313 0 -53 -4% 2014/15 263 251 1 0% 1315 1298 0 -38 -3% 2015/16 263 252 11 4% 1315 1289 5 21 2% 2016/17 263 263 0 0% 1315 1314 9 -8 -1% 2017/18 263 263 0 0% 1315 1330 24 -39 -3% 2018/19 263 263 0 0% 1315 1332 43 -60 -5% 2019/20 263 263 0 0% 1315 1345 61 -91 -7% 2020/21 263 263 0 0% 1315 1357 79 -121 -9% 2021/22 263 263 0 0% 1315 1357 83 -125 -10%

2025/26 263 263 0 0% 1315 1357 108 -150 -11%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The 920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Marlborough community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate approximately 108 secondary aged pupils. Increasing numbers are already impacting on secondary provision, however, as St. John’s Marlborough historically takes above PAN there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school initially. Numbers will be kept under review.

Post 16 Provision

St. John’s Marlborough is currently the only secondary school serving the Marlborough community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. St. John’s Marlborough 350 402 397 376 411 414

Post 16 capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) St. John’s Marlborough desired sixth form size was 300. This is compatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 252. The maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN is 500. At present the school typically

79 recruits above PAN in Year 7 leaving a shortfall of places for post 16 provision. The imbalance between current PAN and post 16 places will become an issue by 2020 as the planned residential development progresses, as shown in the table below.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1760 1260 1298 411 (Actual) 500 2020 1760 1260 1436 404 (Forecast) 500 2026 1760 1260 1457 422 (Forecast) 500

Marlborough implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Keep watching brief/review Keep watching brief/review Review pupil numbers secondary numbers. secondary numbers. arising from new housing with a view to expanding primary provision across the town by 0.5FE.

80 D12 Melksham

There are 9 primary age schools in the Melksham area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area however there is a Resource Base for Complex Needs at River Mead School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Aloeric Primary School Foundation Bowerhill Primary School Community Forest & Sandridge CE Primary School Voluntary Aided River Mead School Academy The Manor School Academy Seend CE Aided Primary School Voluntary Aided Shaw CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. George’s CE Primary School, Semington Voluntary Controlled St. Mary’s Broughton Gifford VCCE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Secondary Melksham Oak School Academy

Births in Melksham

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Melksham area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a slight decline in 2014. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014 and can be seen in the table and graph below. However, the impact of housing development is likely to increase demand for primary school places in Melksham town over the coming years. The existing schools in Melksham are unable to be expanded due to site constraints and therefore any new housing will require a new primary school/site to be identified.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 330 310 309 315 298

Number of Births by Year 340

330

320

310

300

290

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

81 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Melksham

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 96% of pupils living in the Melksham secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster; the remainder attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Melksham area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 304 279 25 8% 2128 1840 288 13% 2014/15 335 318 17 5% 2345 1929 416 18% 2015/16 340 322 18 5% 2380 1999 381 16% 2016/17 340 314 26 8% 2380 2053 327 14% 2017/18 340 319 21 6% 2380 2103 277 12% 2018/19 340 306 34 10% 2380 2157 223 9% 2019/20 340 315 25 7% 2380 2181 199 8%

2025/26 340 315 25 7% 2380 2182 198 8%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends. However, they do not include the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. This housing will predominately be concentrated in the town however; there is significant development in Shaw therefore Shaw Primary School has also been included below.

Name Status as at January 2015 Aloeric Primary School Foundation Bowerhill Primary School Community Forest & Sandridge CE Primary School Voluntary Aided River Mead School Academy Shaw CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled The Manor School Academy

82 The table below shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Melksham and Shaw town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 264 246 18 7% 1848 1599 0 249 13% 2014/15 264 271 -7 -3% 1848 1661 15 172 9% 2015/16 295 283 12 4% 2065 1720 24 321 16% 2016/17 300 274 26 9% 2100 1775 32 293 14% 2017/18 300 281 19 6% 2100 1818 49 233 11% 2018/19 300 269 31 10% 2100 1868 89 143 7% 2019/20 300 277 23 8% 2100 1907 127 66 3%

2025/26 300 277 23 8% 2100 1921 301 -122 -6%

There are 2,370 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Melksham community area of which approximately 45% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 301 primary aged pupils. The existing 1FE Forest & Sandridge CE Primary School is due to become a 2FE school when it relocates to a new building on land provided in an adjacent housing development. The building is currently under construction and due to open September 2015. The relocated, larger school will provide 210 additional places.

The impact of housing development is likely to further increase demand for primary school places in Melksham town over the coming years. The existing schools in Melksham are unable to be expanded due to site constraints and therefore in addition to the current expansion of the Forest and Sandridge CE Primary School, any new housing will require a new primary school/site to be identified.

Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there will be a shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Melksham

Melksham Oak School is the only secondary school serving the Melksham community area and converted to an Academy in April 2015. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

83 The overall transfer ratio for Melksham Oak School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 238 214 90% 2013 to 2014 252 220 87% 2014 to 2015 252 223 88% AverF((*(age ratio 84% 9A( Implications for secondary school provision from 2015223 223 The table below shows pupils at Melksham O999ak School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospective9((((ly and forecast including anticipated pupil product. (((( ((((F o(Fo Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total reToctaal Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 1s1t) - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places ((Fo from /shortfall reca remaining Places st) ( housing 2013/14 270 214 56 21% 1350 (((F 1068 0 282 21% 2014/15 270 220 50 19% 1350 1089 0 261 19% 2015/16 230 223 7 3% 1150 1094 11 45 4% 2016/17 252 229 23 9% 1260 1084 18 158 12% 2017/18 252 238 14 6% 1260 1127 24 109 9% 2018/19 252 223 29 11% 1260 1133 53 74 6% 2019/20 252 258 -6 -2% 1260 1171 81 8 1% 2020/21 252 255 -3 -1% 1260 1203 109 -52 -4% 2021/22 252 282 -30 -12% 1260 1255 136 -131 -10%

2025/26 252 271 -19 -7% 1260 1398 248 -386 -31%

There are 2,370 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Melksham community area of which approximately 45% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 248 secondary aged pupils. Melksham Oak secondary school will need to be expanded to meet the demand from additional housing in the medium term.

Post 16 provision

Melksham Oak School is currently the only secondary school serving the Melksham community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Melksham Oak School 134 120 120 150 140 152

84 Post 16 Capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Melksham Oak School’s desired sixth form size was 250. At present, this is compatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 230. However, from September 2016 the PAN will rise to 252 therefore the maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN becomes 161. This will make a desired sixth form of 250 incompatible with the overall capacity of the school. By 2019 the pupil product from new housing will also have a significant impact on available capacity.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Melksham Oak School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1421 1150 1089 152 (Actual) 271 2020 1421 1260 1311 151 (Forecast) 161 2026 1421 1260 1613 172 (Forecast) 161

Melksham implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Develop expansion scheme Expansion of Melksham Oak for Melksham Oak School. School places to meet in- area demand. Keep primary pupil numbers under review with a view to increasing primary capacity locally on a new site.

85 D13 Mere

There are 3 primary age schools in the Mere area. For secondary school and post 16 education, young people travel mostly to Gillingham School in Dorset or to other Wiltshire secondary schools within adjacent areas. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Hindon CEVA Primary School St. Mary’s and St. John’s Voluntary Aided Mere School Community Whitesheet CE Primary Academy Academy

Births in Mere

The birth rate has, on average, remained the same however some fluctuation has been seen over the last few years. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014 and can be seen in the table and graph below. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 53 50 41 44 44

Number of Births by Year 55

40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Mere

86 Numbers of pupils in the primary age range across the Mere community area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 54 34 20 37% 378 287 0 91 24% 2014/15 54 37 17 31% 378 261 1 116 31% 2015/16 54 40 14 26% 378 259 3 116 31% 2016/17 54 33 21 39% 378 251 5 122 32% 2017/18 54 38 16 30% 378 254 6 118 31% 2018/19 54 39 15 28% 378 261 12 105 28% 2019/20 54 37 17 31% 378 259 17 102 27%

2025/26 54 37 17 31% 378 263 46 69 18%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends.

There are 285 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Mere community area, around half of which have yet to be constructed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate approximately 46 primary aged pupils. These pupils can readily be accommodated within the existing schools’ capacity.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Mere

Historically, all ‘on-time’ year 6 applicants from primary schools in the community area have been offered places at the designated school in Gillingham (Dorset).

Implications for secondary school and post 16 provision from 2015

Dorset is responsible for school place planning in Gillingham. Currently, no issues have been indicated to us about any shortfall of school places.

Wiltshire Council will maintain effective communications with Dorset to ensure the pupil situation is kept under review and cross-border admissions continue to operate smoothly.

87 D14 Pewsey

There are 6 primary age schools in the Pewsey area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 16 age range. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Burbage Primary School Academy Easton Royal Academy Academy Oare CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Pewsey Primary School Academy Rushall CEVA School Voluntary Aided Woodborough CE Aided School Voluntary Aided Secondary Pewsey Vale School Academy

Births in Pewsey

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Pewsey area has declined in recent years which can be seen in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase overall demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 117 122 116 100 89

Number of Births by Year 140

130

120

110

100

80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Pewsey

88 spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 88% of pupils living in the Pewsey secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Pewsey area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 120 90 30 25% 840 722 0 118 14% 2014/15 127 103 24 19% 889 723 2 164 18% 2015/16 127 108 19 15% 889 726 6 157 18% 2016/17 127 106 21 16% 889 742 17 130 15% 2017/18 127 89 38 30% 889 726 29 134 15% 2018/19 127 81 46 36% 889 698 36 155 17% 2019/20 127 96 31 24% 889 668 41 180 20%

2025/26 127 96 31 24% 889 668 72 149 17%

There are 600 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Pewsey community area, around half of which have yet to be constructed. The housing is concentrated in Burbage and Pewsey with smaller amounts in the remaining villages across the area. The remainder of the housing specifically planned for the Pewsey area is predicted to generate approximately 72 primary aged pupils.

Due to the legacy of surplus places across the area this increase in demand can be contained within neighbouring schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. Pewsey Primary School site can accommodate some expansion so additional capacity will be put in place if required in the future. The anticipated rise in pupil numbers attending the school will be monitored closely in the coming years.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Pewsey

Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas. Pewsey Vale School is the only secondary school serving the Pewsey community area.

The overall transfer ratio for Pewsey Vale School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 93 60 65% 2013 to 2014 92 73 79% 2014 to 2015 105 81 (Forecast) 77% Average ratio 74%

89 The table below shows pupils in the secondary age range across the Pewsey community area with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 107 60 47 44% 535 338 0 197 37% 2014/15 107 73 34 32% 535 335 0 200 37% 2015/16 107 81 26 24% 535 356 2 177 33% 2016/17 107 71 36 34% 535 372 4 159 30% 2017/18 107 77 30 28% 535 390 13 132 25% 2018/19 107 85 22 21% 535 416 25 94 18% 2019/20 107 98 9 8% 535 441 29 65 12% 2020/21 107 69 38 35% 535 431 33 71 13% 2021/22 107 80 27 25% 535 441 36 58 11%

2025/26 107 63 44 41% 535 405 56 74 14%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

There are 600 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Pewsey community area, around half of which have yet to be constructed. The housing is concentrated in Burbage and Pewsey with smaller amounts in the remaining villages across the area. The remainder of the housing is predicted to generate approximately 56 secondary aged pupils.

Due to a legacy of surplus places, the current increase in primary numbers has little impact on secondary school provision at Pewsey Vale School over the next few years, as shown in the table above.

Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there is unlikely to be significant impact on the school until beyond the term covered by this document.

Post 16 provision

Pewsey Vale School does not currently offer post 16 education therefore pupils attend provision outside of the Pewsey community area.

90 D15 Purton

There are 3 primary age schools in the Purton area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 16 age range. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Ashton Keynes CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. Mary’s CE Primary School, Purton Voluntary Controlled St. Sampson’s CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Secondary Bradon Forest School Academy

Births in Purton

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Purton area has declined in recent years which can be seen in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. This pattern coupled with the impact of modest housing development is unlikely to significantly increase overall demand for primary school places in the town over the coming 10 years. The need for a new primary school to serve the new community development at Ridgeway Farm has previously been established and work is being progressed to open the new school in Sept 2016.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 119 131 111 96 102

Number of Births by Year 140

130

120

110

100

90 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Purton

91 school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Purton area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 149 107 42 28% 1043 804 0 239 23% 2014/15 156 114 42 27% 1092 810 10 272 25% 2015/16 156 129 27 17% 1092 818 30 244 22% 2016/17 149 108 41 27% 1043 821 53 169 16% 2017/18 149 94 55 37% 1043 804 75 164 16% 2018/19 149 100 49 33% 1043 782 97 164 16% 2019/20 149 107 42 28% 1043 762 118 163 16%

2025/26 149 107 42 28% 1043 762 227 54 5%

Given the distance of the two new major housing developments at Ridgeway Farm and Moredon Bridge from Purton itself, the need for a new primary school to serve the new community developments has previously been established and work is now being progressed to open the new primary school in September 2016. This is in line with Wiltshire Council policy to provide local schools for local children and will limit the impact of excessive road use by travel to school.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Purton

Bradon Forest School is the only secondary school serving the Purton community area and converted to an Academy on 1st September 2015. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for Bradon Forest School for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 106 149 141% 2013 to 2014 122 163 134% 2014 to 2015 122 184 (Forecast) 151% Average ratio 142%

92 The table below shows pupils in the secondary age range across the Purton community area with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 252 149 103 41% 1260 932 0 328 26% 2014/15 232 163 69 30% 1160 871 0 289 25% 2015/16 232 184 48 21% 1160 838 8 314 27% 2016/17 232 159 73 31% 1160 832 23 305 26% 2017/18 232 169 63 27% 1160 815 39 306 26% 2018/19 232 184 48 21% 1160 850 55 255 22% 2019/20 232 192 40 17% 1160 878 73 209 18% 2020/21 232 165 67 29% 1160 859 92 209 18% 2021/22 232 172 60 26% 1160 872 110 178 15%

2025/26 232 151 81 35% 1160 814 166 180 15%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

There are 1,455 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Royal Wootton Bassett & Cricklade community area, which includes Purton. Approximately 1,070 houses should occur at Royal Wootton Bassett leaving 385 to be provided in the remainder of the community area. Of the 385 houses, approximately one third have yet to be constructed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate up to 166 secondary aged pupils across the Purton area. Due to a legacy of surplus places, the current increase in primary numbers has little impact on secondary school provision at Bradon Forest School in the coming years, as shown in the table above.

Bradon Forest Secondary School has a significant proportion of its intake from Swindon. As the impact of any changes in policy affecting secondary school provision in Swindon may have an impact on numbers at this school, Wiltshire Council will continue to work in consultation with Swindon BC to ensure that the school can respond to any changing demand for places in the future. At this time it is difficult to predict the impact of the continuing expansion of housing in the Swindon locality and new secondary provision in Swindon. This will be kept under review.

Post 16 provision

Bradon Forest School does not currently offer post 16 education therefore pupils attend provision outside of the Pewsey community area.

93 D16 Royal Wootton Bassett

There are 7 primary age schools in the Royal Wootton Bassett area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area however there is a Resource Base for Complex Needs at Longleaze Primary School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Broad Town CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Longleaze Primary School Foundation Lydiard Millicent CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Lyneham Primary School Foundation Noremarsh Junior School Foundation St. Bartholomew’s Primary Academy Academy Wootton Bassett Infants School Community Secondary Royal Wootton Bassett Academy Academy

Births in Royal Wootton Bassett

The birth rate has, on average, remained the same, with occasional peaks and troughs which can be seen in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 2014, however, the impact of new housing development is predicted to increase demand for primary school places in Royal Wootton Bassett over the coming years. There is expected to be a shortfall in primary places by 2017/18.

Birth year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 211 219 216 187 239

Number of Births by Year 240

220

200

180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Royal Wootton Bassett and Cricklade

94 The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 95% of pupils living in the Royal Wootton Bassett secondary school cluster areas take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster; the remainder attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the numbers of pupil in the primary age range across the Royal Wootton Bassett area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 235 190 45 19% 1645 1332 313 19% 2014/15 249 201 48 19% 1743 1355 388 22% 2015/16 247 223 24 10% 1729 1395 334 19% 2016/17 247 222 25 10% 1729 1431 298 17% 2017/18 247 206 41 17% 1729 1439 300 17% 2018/19 247 242 5 2% 1729 1482 247 14% 2019/20 247 223 24 10% 1729 1516 213 12%

2025/26 247 211 36 15% 1729 1541 188 11%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends across the whole area. However, they do not include the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed.

Name Status as at January 2015 Longleaze Primary School Foundation Noremarsh Junior School Foundation St. Bartholomew’s Primary Academy Academy Wootton Bassett Infants School Community

95 The follows shows the capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Royal Wootton Bassett town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 145 113 32 22% 1015 807 0 208 20% 2014/15 147 134 13 9% 1029 866 42 121 12% 2015/16 145 137 8 5% 1015 886 101 28 3% 2016/17 145 137 8 5% 1015 897 115 3 0% 2017/18 145 135 10 7% 1015 916 117 -18 -2% 2018/19 145 149 -4 -3% 1015 937 118 -40 -4% 2019/20 145 140 5 3% 1015 954 118 -57 -6%

2025/26 145 140 5 3% 1015 981 118 -84 -8%

There are 1,455 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Royal Wootton Bassett community area of which approximately 40% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 118 primary aged pupils.

Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a shortfall of places by 2026 with pressure on places in the town schools likely to begin as early as academic year 2017/18. It is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand at Royal Wootton Bassett Academy

The overall transfer ratio for Royal Wootton Bassett Academy for the past three years is as follows:

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 181 304 168% 2013 to 2014 181 297 164% 2014 to 2015 183 295 (Forecast) 161% Average ratio 164%

96 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows numbers of pupils in the secondary age at Royal Wootton Bassett Academy with the percentage of surplus places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing

2013/14 271 304 -33 -12% 1355 1375 0 -20 -1% 2014/15 271 297 -26 -10% 1355 1430 0 -75 -5% 2015/16 271 295 -24 -9% 1355 1460 32 -137 -10% 2016/17 280 295 -15 -5% 1400 1491 77 -168 -12% 2017/18 280 280 0 0% 1400 1472 89 -161 -11% 2018/19 280 280 0 0% 1400 1452 91 -143 -10% 2019/20 280 280 0 0% 1400 1435 94 -129 -9% 2020/21 280 280 0 0% 1400 1420 96 -116 -8% 2021/22 280 280 0 0% 1400 1405 97 -102 -7%

2025/26 280 280 0 0% 1400 1405 105 -110 -8%

The current increase in primary numbers has already begun to impact on secondary school provision in Royal Wootton Bassett. Royal Wootton Bassett Academy historically takes above PAN and therefore has been able to accommodate the additional demand to date. Latest projections indicate that there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the impact from further housing and the opening of a new secondary Free School in South Swindon in September 2017, however further expansion of the school is expected in the medium term.

Post 16 provision

The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Royal Wootton Bassett Academy 284 301 252 258 251 299

97 Post 16 capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Royal Wootton Bassett Academy’s desired sixth form size was 400. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 271 as the school is full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 256. However, when the PAN rises to 280 in 2016 this will further limit the available places for post 16 provision to 211.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Royal Wootton Bassett Academy using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1611 1355 1430 251 256 2020 1611 1400 1547 357 (Forecast) 211 2026 1611 1400 1547 357 (Forecast) 211

Royal Wootton Bassett implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Consider options for 0.5FE Implement 0.5FE expansion expansion of primary project. provision in the town. Review options for expansion of provision at Royal Wootton Bassett Academy.

98 D17 Salisbury

There are 24 primary age schools and 6 secondary schools in the Salisbury area, 3 of which also provide post 16 education. There is one special school in the Salisbury community area. There are also Resource Bases for Complex Needs at Manor Fields School, Hearing Impairment at Sarum St. Paul’s CE Primary School, Communication and Interaction at Wilton and Barford CofE Primary School and provision for Physically Impaired students is available at Pembroke Park Primary School. A further Resource Base for Communication and Interaction is due to open at Greentrees Primary School in January 2016.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Bemerton St. John CE Aided Primary School Voluntary Aided Broad Chalke CofE Primary School Voluntary Aided Dinton CofE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Gomeldon Primary School Community Great Wishford CE(VA) Primary School Voluntary Aided Greentrees Primary School Community Harnham Infants School Community Harnham CE Controlled Junior School Voluntary Controlled Manor Fields Primary School Community Old Sarum Primary School Community Pembroke Park Primary School Academy Pitton CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Sarum St. Paul’s CofE (VA) Primary School Voluntary Aided St. Andrew’s CEVA Primary School, Academy Laverstock St. Mark’s CE Junior School, Salisbury Academy St. Martin’s CofE Voluntary Aided Primary Voluntary Aided School St. Nicholas CE Primary School, Porton Voluntary Aided St. Osmund’s Catholic Primary School, Voluntary Aided Salisbury Stratford-sub-Castle CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Wilton and Barford CofE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Winterbourne Earls CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Winterslow CE Aided Primary School Voluntary Aided Woodlands Primary School Community Wyndham Park Infants’ School Academy Special Exeter House Special School Academy Secondary St. Joseph’s Catholic School, Salisbury Voluntary Aided Wyvern College Voluntary Aided St. Edmund’s Girls’ School Academy Bishop Wordsworth’s Grammar School Academy South Wilts Grammar School for Girls Academy Sarum Academy Academy

99 Births in Salisbury

The birth rate has remained fairly high and stable in Salisbury over the last few years despite peaks and troughs. This pattern coupled with the impact of significant housing development will increase the demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years with a significant shortfall expected by 2026. Work is underway to provide additional places at Pembroke Park and Greentrees primary schools. In addition to this there will be a need to further expand existing primary schools along with the expected delivery of two new primary schools in new housing areas in the medium term.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 702 742 670 718 651

Number of Births by Year 750

725

700

675

650 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Salisbury area

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary schools’ cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 100% of pupils living in the Salisbury secondary schools’ cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools within the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Salisbury community area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

100 Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year R NOR Product /shortfall Surplus Year R Year R Places from Places /shortfall Places remaining Places housing 2013/14 690 661 29 4% 4830 4407 0 423 9% 2014/15 707 700 7 1% 4949 4646 12 291 6% 2015/16 764 711 53 7% 5348 4758 126 464 9% 2016/17 764 669 95 12% 5348 4796 258 294 5% 2017/18 764 714 50 6% 5348 4859 376 113 2% 2018/19 764 636 128 17% 5348 4813 501 34 0% 2019/20 764 682 82 11% 5348 4804 666 -122 -2%

2025/26 764 676 88 11% 5348 4748 1320 -720 -13%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends, including the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. This housing will be concentrated in the town.

The following schools serve Salisbury town:

Name Status as at January 2015 Bemerton St. John CE Aided Primary School Voluntary Aided Greentrees Primary School Community Harnham Infants School Community Harnham CE Controlled Junior School Voluntary Controlled Manor Fields Primary School Community Old Sarum Primary School Community Pembroke Park Primary School Academy Sarum St. Paul’s CofE (VA) Primary School Voluntary Aided St. Andrew’s CEVA Primary School, Academy Laverstock St. Mark’s CE Junior School, Salisbury Academy St. Martin’s CofE Voluntary Aided Primary Voluntary Aided School St. Osmund’s Catholic Primary School, Voluntary Aided Salisbury Wyndham Park Infants’ School Academy

The following table shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Salisbury town schools listed above.

101 Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year R NOR Product /shortfall Surplus Year R Year R Places from Places /shortfall Places remaining Places housing 2013/14 490 486 4 1% 3430 3180 12 238 7% 2014/15 500 511 -11 -2% 3500 3345 105 50 1% 2015/16 561 532 29 5% 3927 3442 205 280 7% 2016/17 561 500 61 11% 3927 3497 293 137 3% 2017/18 561 532 29 5% 3927 3565 384 -22 0% 2018/19 561 481 80 14% 3927 3561 507 -141 -4% 2019/20 561 511 50 9% 3927 3575 630 -278 -7%

2025/26 561 504 57 10% 3927 3554 1130 -757 -19%

Overall, there are 6,930 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Southern Wiltshire, Salisbury and Wilton community areas. This figure excludes housing identified for Downton. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 1,130 primary aged pupils.

Work is already underway to provide additional places at Pembroke Park and Greentrees primary schools in 2015/16. In addition to this there will be a need to further expand existing primary schools located in more established and recently developed areas along with the provision of two new primary schools in the planned new housing development areas of Fugglestone Red and Longhedge in the medium term.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Salisbury

Historically, pupils from primary schools in the Salisbury area have progressed to one of the six secondary schools serving Salisbury or The Trafalgar School at Downton - information on which can be found in the Downton section of this document. Exeter House Special School is the only special school in the Salisbury community area. The following schools serve the city.

Name Status as at January 2015 Academy transfer date St. Joseph’s Catholic School Voluntary Aided Not applicable Salisbury Wyvern College Voluntary Aided Not applicable Bishop Wordsworth’s Academy March 2011 Grammar School Sarum Academy Academy September 2010 South Wilts Grammar School Academy January 2011 for Girls St. Edmund’s Girls’ School Academy February 2012

102 Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the expected number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of parental choice, pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for St. Joseph’s Catholic School for the past three years is as follows:

Salisbury total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 528 89 17% 2013 to 2014 567 111 20% 2014 to 2015 599 96 (Forecast) 16% Average ratio 18%

The overall transfer ratio for Wyvern College for the past three years is as follows:

Salisbury total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 528 58 11% 2013 to 2014 567 48 8% 2014 to 2015 599 66 (Forecast) 11% Average ratio 10%

The overall transfer ratio for Bishop Wordsworth’s Grammar School for the past three years is as follows:

Salisbury total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 528 122 23% 2013 to 2014 567 127 22% 2014 to 2015 599 128 (Forecast) 21% Average ratio 22%

The overall transfer ratio for Sarum Academy for the past three years is as follows:

Salisbury total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 528 56 11% 2013 to 2014 567 66 12% 2014 to 2015 599 91 (Forecast) 15% Average ratio 13%

The overall transfer ratio for South Wilts Grammar School for Girls for the past three years is as follows:

Salisbury total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 528 129 24% 2013 to 2014 567 128 23% 2014 to 2015 599 150 (Forecast) 25% Average ratio 24%

103 The overall transfer ratio for St. Edmund’s Girls’ School for the past three years is as follows:

Salisbury total Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 528 176 33% 2013 to 2014 567 181 32% 2014 to 2015 599 186 (Forecast) 31% Average ratio 32%

Currently, the Salisbury secondary schools have a high proportion of pupils from outside the designated area securing places at the schools. In 2012 to 2013 the overall transfer rate for Salisbury was 119% (630 pupils) and in 2013 to 2014 the figure was 117% (661 pupils), both of which are significantly higher than the actual Salisbury total year 6 figures shown above.

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

Overall, there are 6,930 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Southern Wiltshire, Salisbury and Wilton community areas. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 972 secondary aged pupils.

The table below shows numbers of pupils in the secondary age range from the Salisbury secondary schools with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 889 629 260 29% 4445 3229 0 1216 27% 2014/15 782 661 121 15% 3910 3223 0 687 18% 2015/16 782 717 65 8% 3910 3281 12 617 16% 2016/17 782 744 38 5% 3910 3382 88 440 11% 2017/18 782 763 19 2% 3910 3498 192 220 6% 2018/19 782 789 -7 -1% 3910 3652 280 -22 -1% 2019/20 782 800 -18 -2% 3910 3787 372 -249 -6% 2020/21 782 801 -19 -2% 3910 3869 492 -451 -12% 2021/22 782 806 -24 -3% 3910 3931 592 -613 -16%

2025/26 782 748 34 4% 3910 3948 972 -1010 -26%

Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of secondary places by 2026 with pressure on places likely to begin as early as academic year 2017/18. A strategic review of secondary places in Salisbury is to be undertaken in order that the most effective solution can be identified, considered and delivered to meet the demand for additional places in the medium and longer term.

104 Post 16 Provision

Salisbury Grammar Schools - Bishop Wordsworth’s School is an 11 to 19 single sex grammar school for boys and South Wilts Grammar School is an 11 to 19 single sex grammar school for girls.

The historical number of learners at post 16 for the Salisbury grammar schools is as follows:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Bishop Wordsworth’s School 286 305 299 318 313 311 South Wilts Grammar School 356 378 383 383 387 380

Sarum Academy - The historical number of learners at post 16 for Sarum Academy.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Sarum Academy 74 71 108 162 126 70

The Laverstock Site Schools - There is no post 16 provision on the Laverstock site.

Post 16 Capacity

Bishop Wordsworth’s School - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Bishop Wordsworth’s School’s desired sixth form size was 360. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 128 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 244. The school typically recruits into Year 7 at PAN leaving a shortfall of post 16 provision. The imbalance between current PAN and post 16 places has occurred for a number of years.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Bishop Wordsworth’s School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 884 640 616 313 (Actual) 244 2020 884 640 646 335 (Forecast) 244 2026 884 640 646 335 (Forecast) 244

South Wilts Grammar School - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) South Wilts Grammar School’s desired sixth form size was 320. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 150 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 228.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at South Wilts Grammar School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 978 750 627 387 (Actual) 228 2020 978 750 753 444 (Forecast) 228 2026 978 750 753 444 (Forecast) 228

105 Sarum Academy In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Sarum Academy’s desired sixth form size was 250. This is compatible with the proposed Year 7 PAN of 150 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 375.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1125 750 346 126 (Actual) 375 2020 1125 750 616 81 (Forecast) 375 2026 1125 750 737 97 (Forecast) 375

South Wiltshire University Technical College (UTC)

The South Wiltshire UTC is due to open in September 2015 and will have a Specialism in Science and Engineering for the Defence and Protective Science Industries.

Salisbury Sixth Form College

Salisbury Sixth Form College has capacity for 400 pupils with a PAN of 200.

106 Salisbury implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Already in progress - 1FE expansion at Pembroke Park Primary School to 2FE due to complete for September 2015. Already in progress - 1FE expansion at Greentrees Primary School to 2FE due to complete for September 2015. Will also include new Resource Base. Expand Old Sarum Primary School from 1FE to 2FE. 1CR expansion at Wilton & Provision of new Primary Barford Primary School school on the Longhedge (expansion to 1FE). development, size and location to be determined dependant on size of housing development. Progress school Provision of new 1.5FE Provision of new 2FE mpetitions for new primary Primary school on the Primary school to support schools in Salisbury. Fugglestone Red Churchfields and Engine development. Shed strategic sites development, size and location to be determined. Strategic review of Implement recommendations secondary school places and from strategic review of capacities to consider secondary provision. options to meet increasing demand from housing development and Army rebasing.

107 D18 Tidworth

There are 6 primary age schools in the Tidworth area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Clarendon Infants School Foundation Clarendon Junior School Foundation Collingbourne CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Ludgershall Castle Primary School Foundation Wellington Primary Academy Academy Zouch Primary Academy Academy Secondary The Wellington Academy Academy

Births in Tidworth

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Tidworth area shows the birth rate has, on average, remained the same although there was a significant decline in 2014. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014 and can be seen in the table and graph below. However, the impact of future troop movements and significant housing development is expected to increase demand for primary school places over the coming years. Expansion of existing primary provision along with a new primary school in Ludgershall to support army rebasing, is proposed.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 306 329 328 330 330

Number of Births by Year 340

320

300

280 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Tidworth

108 However, in the community areas on or adjacent to Salisbury Plain such as Durrington and Tidworth the birth rate is abnormal and does not follow normal trends. It is subject to considerable fluctuation and dependent upon the number of troops stationed in the area and whether they are based locally or away on operational manoeuvres.

In addition, due to the imminent Army rebasing to the Super Garrison on Salisbury Plain it is not possible to forecast using current birth data as the community areas serving Salisbury Plain are subject to the timing and relocation of troops and occupation of new service family accommodation (SFA). Therefore, expected pupil numbers will be based on data provided by the Army.

Issues for Primary School Provision in Tidworth and Ludgershall from 2015

The table below is the current best estimate of provision required across Tidworth and Ludgershall towns taking account of current birth data and predicted housing. The figures are calculated by projecting forward the birth rate including Army rebasing data, the likely take up of places based on past trends and the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. The following schools serve Tidworth and Ludgershall.

Name Status as at January 2015 Clarendon Infants School Foundation Clarendon Junior School Foundation Ludgershall Castle Primary School Foundation Wellington Primary Academy Academy Zouch Primary Academy Academy

The table below shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Tidworth town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus/ % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product shortfall Surplus/ Places Places from shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 216 203 13 6% 1512 1104 0 408 27% 2014/15 250 200 50 20% 1750 1151 20 579 33% 2015/16 250 220 30 12% 1750 1268 86 396 23% 2016/17 285 216 69 24% 1995 1316 207 472 24% 2017/18 285 220 65 23% 1995 1391 360 244 12% 2018/19 285 192 93 33% 1995 1446 681 -132 -7% 2019/20 285 207 78 27% 1995 1474 820 -299 -15%

2025/26 285 207 78 27% 1995 1447 950 -402 -20%

There are 1,920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Tidworth community area of which approximately 80% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 950 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing in the town is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

109 The impact of future troop movements and significant housing development is expected to increase demand for primary school places in the short and medium term. The expansion of existing primary school provision in Ludgershall along with a proposed new primary school located at Perham Down is planned to meet demand from Army rebasing and additional housing in the area. The new primary school site at Perham Down will be of a size that will enable future expansion of the school if required.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Tidworth

The Wellington Academy is the only secondary school serving the Tidworth community area. The school opened as an Academy in September 2009 and moved into new buildings in April 2011. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for The Wellington Academy for the past two years.

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 138 169 122% 2013 to 2014 146 153 105% 2014 to 2015 117 95 (Forecast) 81% Average ratio 103%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below is the current best estimate of provision required including anticipated Army SFA housing data. It shows the number of pupils of secondary age at The Wellington Academy with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus Places NOR Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 180 170 10 6% 900 820 0 80 9% 2014/15 180 153 27 15% 900 752 0 148 16% 2015/16 180 95 85 47% 900 718 12 170 19% 2016/17 210 151 59 28% 1050 732 55 263 25% 2017/18 210 132 78 37% 1050 709 214 127 12% 2018/19 210 124 86 41% 1050 678 399 -27 -3% 2019/20 210 164 46 22% 1050 690 476 -116 -11% 2020/21 210 189 21 10% 1050 785 518 -253 -24% 2021/22 210 173 37 18% 1050 807 533 -290 -28%

2025/26 210 168 42 20% 1050 945 564 -459 -44%

110 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

There are 1,920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Tidworth community area of which approximately 80% have yet to be completed. The 570 SFA houses due to be constructed for the Army rebasing are not included in the Core Strategy and are predicted to generate 228 secondary aged pupils. Therefore, the total predicted amount of secondary aged pupils is 564 as shown in the table above. The current increase in numbers will begin to impact on The Wellington Academy in 2019/20. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. Options for the provision of additional secondary places to meet the demand in the Tidworth area are currently being considered and a prepared solution will be confirmed shortly.

Post 16 Provision

The Wellington Academy is currently the only Secondary school serving the Tidworth community area and offers post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. The Wellington Academy 88 137 204 256 217 231

Post 16 capacity

The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 450. There are 217 post 16 students on roll at present.

Tidworth implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Wellington Secondary Academy phase 1 extension is due to complete September 2015. Construct 2 classroom Provision of new Ludgershall extension at Ludgershall 1FE Primary school at Castle Primary School to Perham Down on 2FE site. expand school to 2FE. We are currently reviewing Implement phase 2 the location of secondary expansion of secondary provision to meet additional provision. demand in Tidworth arising from the Army rebasing.

111 D19 Tisbury

There are 5 primary age schools in the Tisbury area. For secondary school and post 16 education, young people travel mostly to Shaftesbury School in Dorset or to other Wiltshire secondary schools within adjacent areas. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Chilmark & Fonthill Bishop CE Aided Primary Voluntary Aided School Ludwell Community Primary School Community Semley CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided St. John’s CE Primary School, Tisbury Voluntary Controlled Wardour Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided

Births in Tisbury

The birth rate has, on average, remained the same apart from a significant peak in births in 2012. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014 and can be seen in the table and graph below. This pattern coupled with the impact of only modest housing development is likely to decrease demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 50 47 70 40 40

Number of Births by Year 75

35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Tisbury

112 of places compared with the PAN). On average, 130% of pupils take up places at maintained primary schools in the Tisbury schools cluster area. Currently, there are a high proportion of pupils from outside the schools’ designated areas securing places at the school. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere in Wiltshire or at independent schools.

As the peak 2012 birth year feeds through the demand for school places in the area may need to be planned in the context of the capacity available at primary schools across the border in Dorset. However, available figures do not currently suggest a shortfall as shown in the table below.

The following table shows the numbers of pupils in the primary age range across the Tisbury community area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Spare Places NOR Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year R from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 85 70 15 18% 595 476 0 119 20% 2014/15 87 65 22 25% 609 474 6 129 21% 2015/16 87 75 12 14% 609 484 12 113 19% 2016/17 89 86 3 3% 623 513 14 96 15% 2017/18 87 64 23 26% 609 520 15 74 12% 2018/19 87 63 24 28% 609 502 23 84 14% 2019/20 87 72 15 17% 609 500 31 78 13%

2025/26 87 73 14 16% 609 489 76 44 7%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The above table uses figures calculated by projecting forward the birth rate and the likely take up of places based on past trends. However, they do not include the pupil product from any housing that has yet to be completed. This housing will be concentrated in the town. There are 420 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Tisbury community area, around half of which have yet to be constructed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate approximately 76 primary aged pupils.

Due to the legacy of surplus places across the area this increase in demand can be contained within neighbouring schools in the short term. The anticipated rise in pupil numbers attending schools in the Tisbury cluster will be monitored closely in the coming years.

113 Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Tisbury

Historically, all ‘on-time’ year 6 applicants from primary schools in the community area have been offered places at the designated school in Shaftesbury (Dorset).

Implications for secondary school and post 16 provision from 2015

Dorset is responsible for school place planning in Shaftesbury. Currently, no issues have been indicated to us about any shortfall of school places.

Wiltshire Council will maintain effective communications with Dorset to ensure the pupil situation is kept under review and cross-border admissions continue to operate smoothly.

114 D20 Trowbridge

There are 18 primary age schools in the Trowbridge area and 3 secondary schools which cater for the 11 to 19 age range. There is one special school in the Trowbridge area. There are also Resource Bases for Complex Needs and Communication and Interaction at Studley Green Primary School and provision for Hearing Impaired students is available at Grove Primary School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Bellefield Primary and Nursery School Voluntary Controlled Castlemead Primary School Academy Grove Primary School Community Hilperton CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Holbrook Primary School Community Holt VC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Keevil C of E Primary School Voluntary Controlled Newtown Community Primary School Community North Bradley C of E Primary School Voluntary Controlled Paxcroft Primary School Foundation Southwick CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled St John’s Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided Staverton CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled Studley Green Primary School Foundation The Mead Community Primary School Academy Oasis Academy Longmeadow Academy Walwayne Court School Community West Ashton CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Westwood-with-Iford School Community Secondary The Clarendon Academy Academy The John of Gaunt School Academy St Augustine’s Catholic School Academy Special Larkrise School Community

Births in Trowbridge

The birth rate has, on average, remained the same, with occasional peaks which can be seen in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. However, the impact of housing development is predicted to increase demand for primary school places in Trowbridge town over the coming years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 637 703 659 630 644

115 Number of Births by Year

700

675

650

625 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Trowbridge

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 101% of pupils living in the Trowbridge secondary schools cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster, the remainder attending schools elsewhere or at independent schools. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Trowbridge area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 624 591 33 5% 4368 4005 363 8% 2014/15 682 645 37 5% 4774 4146 628 13% 2015/16 690 692 -2 0% 4830 4289 541 11% 2016/17 690 641 49 7% 4830 4388 442 9% 2017/18 690 627 63 9% 4830 4431 399 8% 2018/19 690 630 60 9% 4830 4464 366 8% 2019/20 690 641 49 7% 4830 4483 347 7%

2025/26 690 642 48 7% 4830 4465 365 8%

116 Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Bellefield Primary and Nursery School Voluntary Controlled Castlemead Primary School Academy Grove Primary School Community Holbrook Primary School Community Newtown Community Primary School Community Paxcroft Primary School Foundation St John’s Catholic Primary School Voluntary Aided Studley Green Primary School Foundation The Mead Community Primary School Academy Oasis Academy Longmeadow Academy Walwayne Court School Community

The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Trowbridge town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year R Year R Year R Places NOR Product /shortfall Surplus Places from Places /shortfall remaining Places housing

2013/14 453 408 45 10% 3171 2782 0 389 12% 2014/15 488 459 29 6% 3416 2912 41 463 14% 2015/16 494 496 -2 0% 3458 3005 115 338 10% 2016/17 494 472 22 4% 3458 3082 201 175 5% 2017/18 494 462 32 6% 3458 3137 311 10 0% 2018/19 494 454 40 8% 3458 3184 455 -181 -5% 2019/20 494 465 29 6% 3458 3222 592 -356 -10%

2025/26 494 465 29 6% 3458 3241 1424 -1207 -35%

Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026 with pressure on places in the town schools likely to begin as early as academic year 2017/18. It is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with expansion and additional accommodation provided where necessary. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

117 The later stages of housing development in Trowbridge will require two new primary schools which will be provided through Section 106 agreements with the developer(s).

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Trowbridge

Historically, pupils from primary schools in the Trowbridge community area have progressed to one of the three secondary schools in the town. Larkrise School is the only special school in the Trowbridge community area.

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Academy transfer date The Clarendon Academy Academy November 2012 The John of Gaunt School Academy April 2012 St. Augustine’s Catholic School Academy September 2011

The overall transfer ratio for The Clarendon Academy for the past three years is as follows:

Trowbridge total Year 7 Transfer Ratio Year 6 2012 to 2013 509 135 26% 2013 to 2014 543 141 26% 2014 to 2015 549 170 (Forecast) 31% Average ratio 28%

The overall transfer ratio for The John of Gaunt School for the past three years is as follows:

Trowbridge total Year 7 Transfer Ratio Year 6 2012 to 2013 509 204 40% 2013 to 2014 543 197 36% 2014 to 2015 549 181 (Forecast) 33% Average ratio 36%

The overall transfer ratio for St. Augustine’s Catholic School for the past three years is as follows:

Trowbridge total Year 7 Transfer Ratio Year 6 2012 to 2013 509 150 29% 2013 to 2014 543 159 29% 2014 to 2015 549 154 (Forecast) 28% Average ratio 29%

Currently, a small proportion of pupils secure secondary places at schools outside the Trowbridge schools designated area, particularly St Laurence School in Bradford-on-Avon. In 2012 to 2013 the overall transfer rate for Trowbridge was 95% (489 pupils) and in 2013 to 2014 the figure was 91% (497 pupils), both of which are slightly lower than the actual Trowbridge total year 6 figures shown above.

118 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows combined historical actual and forecast numbers of pupils in the Trowbridge area who are anticipated to attend the Trowbridge secondary schools. The figures also include the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 665 489 176 26% 3325 2649 0 676 20% 2014/15 650 497 153 23% 3250 2625 0 625 19% 2015/16 678 505 173 25% 3390 2548 31 811 24% 2016/17 654 499 155 24% 3260 2505 87 668 20% 2017/18 654 557 97 15% 3260 2565 151 544 17% 2018/19 654 549 105 16% 3260 2626 267 367 11% 2019/20 654 591 63 10% 3260 2723 360 177 5% 2020/21 654 585 69 11% 3260 2803 451 6 0% 2021/22 654 594 60 9% 3260 2899 540 -179 -5%

2025/26 654 579 75 11% 3260 3003 987 -730 -22%

There are 6,975 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Trowbridge community area of which approximately 65% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 987 secondary aged pupils. Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can be contained within existing accommodation until 2020. However, contingency plans need to be made now to ensure that additional secondary capacity can be put in place when required.

The forecast for each of the Trowbridge secondary schools indicates that there is sufficient capacity to accommodate children from their catchment area until 2020. However, approximately 150 pupils from the Trowbridge area will progressively require places in Trowbridge secondary schools as St. Laurence School in Bradford on Avon experiences an increase in catchment demand.

Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall in places by 2026. It is anticipated that a new secondary school located on the proposed Ashton Park development will be required in the longer term.

Post 16 provision

All three secondary schools which serve the Trowbridge area are Academies and offer 11 to 19 provision.

The historical number of learners at post 16 for all Trowbridge secondary schools is shown in the following table.

119 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. The Clarendon Academy 181 165 157 190 188 144 The John of Gaunt School 194 169 171 167 131 197 St. Augustine’s Catholic School 204 217 196 203 182 189

Post 16 Capacity

The Clarendon Academy - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Clarendon College’s desired sixth form size was 230. This is compatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 250 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 285.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at The Clarendon College using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product of 45% from housing total.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1535 1250 765 189 (Actual) 285 2020 1535 1250 1157 133 (Forecast) 285 2026 1535 1250 1414 158 (Forecast) 285

The John of Gaunt School - The John of Gaunt School did not respond to the LA’s 2011 consultation. However, the maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN is 358.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at The John of Gaunt School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product of 45% from housing total.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1618 1250 1100 131 (Actual) 358 2020 1618 1260 1223 144 (Forecast) 358 2026 1618 1260 1487 170 (Forecast) 358

St. Augustine’s Catholic School - In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) St. Augustine’s Catholic College’s desired sixth form size was 220. This is compatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 150 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 408. There are 196 post 16 students on roll at present. The school typically recruits into Year 7 at PAN.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at St. Augustine’s Catholic College using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product of 10% from housing total.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1042 750 760 182 (Actual) 292 2020 1042 750 874 197 (Forecast) 292 2026 1042 750 998 218 (Forecast) 292

120 Trowbridge implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

1CR expansion at Holt Primary School due to complete for September 2015. Expand Castlemead Primary Provision of new 2FE Provision of a second new Academy from 1FE to 2FE. Primary school on the 2FE Primary school in the Consider proposal for Resource Base Ashton Park development. later stages of the Ashton Park development. Review provision at Larkrise Special School to clarify expansion options. Commission feasibility studies at existing primary schools to clarify options for expansion. Develop proposals for new Implement proposals for new secondary provision on the secondary provision on the Ashton Park development. Ashton Park development.

121 D21 Warminster

There are 12 primary age schools in the Warminster area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area; however, there is a Resource Base for Complex Needs at The Avenue School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Crockerton CofE Primary School Voluntary Aided Heytesbury CofE Primary School Voluntary Aided Horningsham Primary School Community New Close Community School Community Princecroft Primary School Community Warminster Sambourne CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. George’s Catholic Primary School, Warminster Voluntary Aided St. John’s CofE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Sutton Veny CofE School Voluntary Controlled The Avenue School Foundation The Minster CofE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Wylye Valley CEVA School Voluntary Aided Secondary Warminster Kingdown School Academy

Births in Warminster

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Warminster area shows the birth rate has declined slightly in recent years, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. However, the impact of housing development is expected to increase demand for primary school places in Warminster town over the coming years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 250 271 243 236 242

Number of Births by Year 280

270

260

250

240

230 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

122 Primary Pupil Place Demand in Warminster

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 96% of pupils living in the Warminster secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster; the remainder attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Warminster area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 281 257 24 8% 1967 1681 286 14% 2014/15 282 240 42 15% 1974 1675 299 15% 2015/16 281 260 21 7% 1967 1633 334 17% 2016/17 281 232 49 17% 1967 1705 262 13% 2017/18 281 231 50 18% 1967 1705 262 13% 2018/19 281 241 40 14% 1967 1729 238 12% 2019/20 281 237 44 16% 1967 1702 265 13%

2025/26 281 230 51 18% 1967 1642 325 16%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 New Close Community School Community Princecroft Primary School Community Warminster Sambourne CEVC Primary School Voluntary Controlled St. George’s Catholic Primary School, Warminster Voluntary Aided St. John’s C of E Primary School Voluntary Controlled The Avenue School Foundation The Minster C of E Primary School Voluntary Controlled

123 The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Warminster town schools listed above.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing

2013/14 198 179 19 10% 1386 1157 0 229 16% 2014/15 198 160 38 19% 1386 1155 2 229 16% 2015/16 198 186 12 6% 1386 1162 12 212 15% 2016/17 198 159 39 20% 1386 1172 43 171 12% 2017/18 198 162 36 18% 1386 1176 90 210 15% 2018/19 198 171 27 14% 1386 1203 149 34 2% 2019/20 198 165 33 17% 1386 1185 206 -5 0%

2025/26 198 158 40 20% 1386 1145 411 -170 -12%

There are 2,060 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Warminster community area of which approximately 70% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 411 primary aged pupils. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there will be a significant shortfall of places by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Due to the legacy of surplus places it is expected that this increase in demand can be contained within existing schools in the short term, with additional accommodation provided where necessary. The new West Warminster Urban Expansion (WWUE) area is located to the far west of the town and as such only one existing primary school is located within a reasonable walking distance of the development area. Princecroft Primary School is a small school, with a small amount of surplus space that could take limited numbers from the WWUE development however in the later stages of the WWUE development it will require a new primary school on a site suitably located to serve the new community and will need to be provided through a Section 106 agreement with the developer(s).

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Warminster

Kingdown School is currently the only secondary school serving the Warminster community area and offering post 16 provision. The school converted to an Academy in August 2011.

124 The overall transfer ratio for Kingdown School for the past three years.

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 211 255 121% 2013 to 2014 242 275 114% 2014 to 2015 252 291 (Forecast) 115% Average ratio 117%

The table below shows pupils at Kingdown School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Total Total Pupil Surplus % Surplus Year 7 Year 7 Spare 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall /shortfall Places Year 7 Places NOR from Places Places remaining housing 2013/14 277 254 23 8% 1385 1300 0 85 6% 2014/15 277 275 2 0% 1385 1306 0 79 6% 2015/16 277 291 -14 -5% 1385 1338 2 45 3% 2016/17 273 243 30 11% 1365 1339 10 16 1% 2017/18 273 267 6 2% 1365 1337 33 -5 0% 2018/19 273 251 22 8% 1365 1344 77 21 1% 2019/20 273 273 0 0% 1365 1342 122 23 2% 2020/21 273 273 0 0% 1365 1323 164 -122 -9% 2021/22 273 273 0 0% 1365 1354 205 -194 -14%

2025/26 273 278 -5 -2% 1365 1377 315 -327 -24%

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

There are 2,060 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Warminster community area of which approximately 72% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 315 secondary aged pupils. The current increase in primary numbers will impact on secondary school provision from 2017/18 and cause a significant shortfall by 2026, as shown in the table above.

Kingdown School is the only secondary school in Warminster and is currently at capacity although historically the school has taken a proportion of pupils from outside the designated area. There is limited scope to expand Kingdown on its existing site and therefore the significant amount of additional housing proposed in the Core Strategy and the pupil numbers generated will necessitate a site to develop a secondary satellite facility to meet the demand in the medium term.

125 Post 16 provision

The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Kingdown School 266 237 265 255 275 291

Post 16 Capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Kingdown School’s desired sixth form size was 300. This is incompatible with the overall capacity of the school and the agreed PAN of 273. The maximum number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the highest capacity of the school and agreed PAN is 255. By 2017, the anticipated growth in pupil numbers will start to restrict post 16 capacity unless additional accommodation is provided.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Kingdown School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1620 1385 1306 275 (Actual) 255 2020 1620 1365 1487 332 (Forecast) 255 2026 1620 1365 1674 311 (Forecast) 255

Warminster implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Renew capacity and feasibility required to determine scope for additional places. Feasibility study to consider Expansion of secondary options for expansion of school places at Kingdown Kingdown School and School to meet in-area associated site implications. demand. Provision of new Primary school to serve the West Warminster Urban Expansion. Size and location to be determined.

126 D22 Westbury

There are 7 primary age schools in the Westbury area and 1 secondary school catering for the 11 to 19 age range. There are no special schools in the area however there are Resource Bases for Complex Needs at Westbury Infant School and Westbury CE Junior School.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Bitham Brook Primary School Community Bratton Primary School Community Chapmanslade CEVA Primary School Voluntary Aided Dilton Marsh CE Primary School Academy Westbury Infant School Community Westbury CE Junior School Voluntary Controlled Westbury Leigh CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled Secondary Matravers School Foundation

Births in Westbury

The number of births reported by the Health Authority in the Westbury area shows the birth rate has declined slightly in recent years, as shown in the table and graph below. The data includes births up to 31st August 2014. However, the impact of proposed housing development is likely to increase demand for primary school places over the coming 10 years.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 255 267 229 237 227

Number of Births by Year 280

270

260

250

240

230

220 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Westbury

127 The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the secondary school cluster area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 88% of pupils living in the Westbury secondary school cluster area take up places at maintained primary schools in the cluster; the remainder attend schools elsewhere or at independent schools. In the current economic climate, this percentage is expected to increase.

The following table shows the number of pupils in the primary age range across the Westbury area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus % Surplus Year R Year R Year R Places NOR /shortfall /shortfall Places Places Places 2013/14 253 197 56 22% 1771 1504 267 15% 2014/15 259 225 34 13% 1813 1515 298 16% 2015/16 259 232 27 10% 1813 1515 298 16% 2016/17 259 203 56 22% 1813 1508 305 17% 2017/18 259 207 52 20% 1813 1513 300 16% 2018/19 259 196 63 24% 1813 1491 322 18% 2019/20 259 202 57 22% 1813 1464 349 19%

2025/26 259 202 57 22% 1813 1466 347 19%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

The following schools serve the town.

Name Status as at January 2015 Bitham Brook Primary School Community Westbury Infants School Community Westbury CE Junior School Voluntary Controlled Westbury Leigh CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled

128 The following shows capacity and anticipated demand for places at the Westbury town schools listed above:

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % NOR Year R Year R Year R Places Product /shortfall Surplus Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 182 150 32 18% 1274 1080 0 194 15% 2014/15 182 156 26 14% 1274 1087 14 173 14% 2015/16 182 174 8 4% 1274 1089 33 152 12% 2016/17 182 151 31 17% 1274 1095 63 116 9% 2017/18 182 151 31 17% 1274 1100 90 84 7% 2018/19 182 147 35 19% 1274 1087 131 56 4% 2019/20 182 150 32 18% 1274 1078 181 15 1%

2025/26 182 150 32 18% 1274 1079 240 -45 -3%

There are 1,615 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Westbury community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 240 primary aged pupils. Assuming the housing is delivered as planned, there will be a slight shortfall across the area by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built and the plan for provision of the additional places will be dependent upon commencement of the housing in the town.

Secondary Pupil Place Demand in Westbury

Matravers School is the only secondary school serving the Westbury community area and offers post 16 provision. Estimates of the future need for secondary places is based on the number of pupils leaving primary schools at the age of 11+, applying historic transfer ratios to take account of pupils moving to independent schools and schools in other areas.

The overall transfer ratio for Matravers School for the past three years.

Year 6 Year 7 Transfer Ratio 2012 to 2013 208 147 71% 2013 to 2014 215 137 64% 2014 to 2015 232 148 (Forecast) 64% Average ratio 66%

129 Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

The table below shows pupils at Matravers School with the percentage of surplus/shortfall places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast including anticipated pupil product.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Pupil Surplus % Year 7 Year 7 Year 7 11 - 16 11 - 16 Product /shortfall Surplus NOR Places Places Places from /shortfall remaining Places housing 2013/14 221 147 74 33% 1105 820 0 285 26% 2014/15 221 137 84 38% 1105 764 0 341 31% 2015/16 221 148 73 33% 1105 730 10 365 33% 2016/17 221 133 88 40% 1105 698 25 382 35% 2017/18 221 129 92 42% 1105 676 48 381 34% 2018/19 221 139 82 37% 1105 664 71 370 33% 2019/20 221 178 43 19% 1105 705 100 300 27% 2020/21 221 156 65 29% 1105 714 135 256 23% 2021/22 221 147 74 33% 1105 727 165 213 19%

2025/26 221 125 96 43% 1105 685 183 237 21%

There are 1,615 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Westbury community area of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate a further 183 secondary aged pupils. The increase in primary numbers will have little impact on future secondary school provision in Westbury, as shown in the table above. The precise surplus will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Currently, a significant proportion of pupils from the Westbury area secure places at the Warminster Kingdown School. However, this proportion of pupils will progressively require places in Matravers School as Warminster Kingdown continues to experience an increase in catchment demand in the coming years.

Post 16 provision

Matravers School is currently the only secondary school serving the Westbury community area and offering post 16 provision. The following table shows the historical number of learners at post 16 and the estimated number for September 2015:

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Est. Matravers School 139 151 133 144 172 141

130 Post 16 capacity

In the most recent consultation with schools (2011) Matravers School’s desired sixth form size was 200. This is incompatible with the current Year 7 PAN of 221 if the school was full. The greatest number of post 16 places that can be commissioned within the maximum capacity of the school and current PAN is 161. As the school typically does not recruit to PAN at present in Year 7 there is a surfeit of places available for post 16 provision.

The following shows the number of post 16 places available based on maximum Net Capacity at Matravers School using current and forecast NOR including anticipated pupil product from housing.

Year Maximum Net 11 - 16 11 – 16 NOR Post 16 NOR Maximum Post Capacity Places (incl. housing) 16 Cap 2014 1266 1105 764 172 (Actual) 161 2020 1266 1105 849 112 (Forecast) 161 2026 1266 1105 862 119 (Forecast) 161

Westbury implementation plan

Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Feasibility for small Construct 2 classroom expansion at Bitham Brook extension at Bitham Brook Primary School. Primary School. Keep Matravers School pupil numbers under review to determine provision.

131 D23 Wroughton

There is 1 primary age school in the Wroughton area. There is no secondary or post 16 provision in Wroughton so young people travel to Swindon or to other Wiltshire secondary schools within adjacent areas. There are no special schools in the area.

Primary Status as at January 2015 Broad Hinton CE Primary School Voluntary Controlled

The birth rate has remained static in recent years following a slight peak in 2010, as shown in the table and graph below.

Birth Year 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Number 9 6 6 5 6

Number of Births by Year 10

5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Primary Pupil Place Demand in Wroughton

The table below provides historic information and future estimates for the total number of available primary places in the Reception Year (the “Published Admission Number” or PAN) compared with the actual or forecast number of pupils in that year. This gives the number of spare places across the community partnership area (a negative figure shows a shortage of places compared with the PAN). On average, 178% of pupils take up places at Broad Hinton CE Primary School. Currently, there are a high proportion of pupils from outside the school’s designated area securing places at the school. Notwithstanding the high uptake of maintained places, some pupils will attend schools elsewhere in Wiltshire or at independent schools.

132 The table below shows the numbers of pupils in the primary age range across the Wroughton community area based on the birth rate and the percentage of surplus places by age cohort both retrospectively and forecast.

Year PAN Pupils in Spare % Spare Total Total Surplus/ % Year R Year R Year R Places NOR shortfall Surplus/ Places Places Shortfall Places 2013/14 17 11 6 35% 119 93 26 22% 2014/15 17 16 1 6% 119 93 26 22% B po 2015/16 17 17 0 0% 119 101 18 15% 2016/17 17 14 3 18% 119 96 23 19% 2017/18 17 12 5 29% 119 97 22 18% 2018/19 17 14 3 18% 119 93 26 22% 2019/20 17 14 3 18% 119 100 19 16%

2025/26 17 14 3 18% 119 97 22 18%

Issues for Primary School Provision from 2015

There are 920 houses identified in the Wiltshire Core Strategy to be built in the Marlborough community area (of which Wroughton school cluster area forms part) of which approximately 50% have yet to be completed. The remaining housing is predicted to generate up to 143 primary aged pupils across the Marlborough area therefore we may see some increase in pupils wishing to attend Broad Hinton CE Primary School. Assuming the birth rate continues at the average rate for the past four years and the housing is delivered as planned there may be small short fall of places in this area by 2026. The precise shortfall will depend on the final mix of dwelling sizes, social housing & windfall sites actually built.

Due to the legacy of surplus places this increase in demand can currently be contained within the school, with additional accommodation provided where necessary should numbers increase significantly in the future.

Implications for secondary school provision from 2015

All secondary school admissions are dealt with by Swindon Borough Council.

133 E School Places Strategy 2015 – 2020: Implementation Plan

Area Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Amesbury Expand Amesbury Christ the King Provision of new Primary school on school to 1.5FE. the Kings Gate development. New site being secured, either as a new school or satellite site for existing primary school. Will provide 1FE (possibly 2FE) dependent on site size and demand. Develop expansion scheme at The Phase 1 – expand The Stonehenge Stonehenge School. School to provide 250-275 places. Bradford-on-Avon Up to 0.5FE primary places required North of the town to cover short-term rise in pupil numbers. Need to determine whether temporary or permanent.

Calne 0.5FE primary provision required at Priestley Primary to meet growing demand for places.

Chippenham Construct 1 classroom extension at Development and delivery of up to Ivy Lane Primary School to return 5 new Primary Schools to meet school to 2FE. significant DPD requirements. E School Places Strategy 2015 – 2020: Implementation Plan

Area Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Review and develop plans to expand Expansion of Abbeyfield School – secondary provision in Chippenham. Phase 1. Keep under review timing of any further expansion requirements. Corsham Feasibility for the expansion of Provision of 0.5FE Primary places in Corsham Primary (Broadwood) the Broadwood area. Develop proposal for phase 1 Phase 1 expansion of The Corsham expansion at The Corsham School. School on existing site. Devizes Keep pupil numbers under review to determine both primary and secondary provision. Downton Expansion of Downton Primary School by 60 places (subject to planning consent)

Durrington Expansion of Kiwi School from 1FE to 2FE – already in progress. Expansion of St. Leonard’s Primary School to 1.5FE – already in progress. Provision of new 2FE Primary school at Larkhill (relocation of Figheldean Primary School to new site). Durrington – cont. Progress scheme to expand Avon Expand Avon Valley College Valley College to meet Army rebasing (number of places to be confirmed) timescale. Lavington E School Places Strategy 2015 – 2020: Implementation Plan

Area Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Malmesbury Expansion of primary provision in Malmesbury at a location yet to be determined. Planning for small extension to Delivery of 120 place expansion to Malmesbury School. secondary school provision at Malmesbury School. (Note: PFI school). Marlborough Keep watching brief/review Keep watching brief/review Review pupil numbers arising from secondary numbers. secondary numbers. new housing with a view to expanding primary provision across the town by 0.5FE. Melksham Develop expansion scheme for Expansion of Melksham Oak School Melksham Oak School. places to meet in-area demand (places to be confirmed as part of feasibility) Keep primary pupil numbers under review with a view to increasing primary capacity locally on a new site, subject to housing development. Mere Pewsey Purton Royal Wootton Bassett Consider options for 0.5FE expansion Implement 0.5FE expansion project. of primary provision in the town. E School Places Strategy 2015 – 2020: Implementation Plan

Area Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Review options for expansion of Delivery of 130 place expansion to provision at Royal Wootton Bassett secondary school provision at RWB Academy. Academy (Note: PFI school). Salisbury Already in progress - 1FE expansion at Pembroke Park Primary School to 2FE due to complete for September 2015. Already in progress - 1FE expansion at Greentrees Primary School to 2FE due to complete for September 2015. Will also include new SEN Resource Base. Expand Old Sarum Primary School from 1FE to 2FE. 1CR expansion at Wilton & Barford Provision of new Primary school on Primary School (expansion to 1FE). the Longhedge development, size and location to be determined dependant on size of housing development. Progress school competitions for new Provision of new 1.5FE Primary Provision of new 2FE Primary school primary schools in Salisbury. school on the Fugglestone Red to support Churchfields and Engine development. Shed strategic sites development, size and location to be determined. E School Places Strategy 2015 – 2020: Implementation Plan

Area Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Salisbury – cont. Strategic review of secondary school Implement recommendations from places and capacities to consider strategic review of secondary options to meet increasing demand provision. from housing development and Army rebasing. Construct 2 classroom extension at Provision of new Ludgershall 1FE Ludgershall Castle Primary School to Primary school at Perham Down on expand school to 2FE. 2FE site. Wellington Secondary Academy phase 1 extension is due to complete September 2015. We are currently reviewing the Implement phase 2 expansion of location of secondary provision to secondary provision. meet additional demand in Tidworth arising from the Army rebasing. Tisbury

Trowbridge 1CR expansion at Holt Primary School due to complete for September 2015. Expand Castlemead Primary Provision of new 2FE Primary Provision of a second new 2FE Academy from 1FE to 2FE, expansion school on the Ashton Park Primary school in the later stages of to include SEN Resource Base. development. the Ashton Park development. E School Places Strategy 2015 – 2020: Implementation Plan

Area Short term – 1 to 2 years Medium term – 3 to 5 years Long term – 5 to 10 years 2015 – 2017 2017 - 2020 2020 – 2025

Commission feasibility studies at Develop proposals for new Implement proposals for new existing primary schools to clarify secondary provision on the Ashton secondary provision on the Ashton options for expansion Park development. Park development. Trowbridge Review provision at Larkrise Special School to clarify expansion options. Warminster Feasibility study to consider options Expansion of secondary school for expansion of Kingdown School places at Kingdown School to meet and associated site implications. in-area demand arising from WWUE. Develop scheme to expand Provision of new Primary school to Princecroft Primary School to 1FE to serve the WWUE. Size and location meet WWUE demand. to be determined. Westbury Feasibility for small expansion at Construct 2 classroom extension Bitham Brook Primary School. and associated communal areas at Bitham Brook Primary School. Feasibilities for small expansions of 1 Keep Matravers School pupil classroom each at Westbury Infant numbers under review to determine and Junior Schools. provision. Wroughton