Padres Press Clips Wednesday, January 18, 2017

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Hoffman shouldn’t have to wait UT San Diego Acee 2

Again, up for Hall vote UT San Diego Sanders 7

Padres sign to six-year, $83 million extension UT San Diego Lin 11

Padres roster review: Miguel Diaz UT San Diego Sanders 14

Watch HOF announcement coverage live, noon PT today MLB.com Bloom 16

Padres lock up Myers through at least 2022 MLB.com Cassavell 19

Hoffman’s HOF fate about to be revealed MLB.com Cassavell 21

Winter updates on Bethancourt, Pirela Padres.com Center 23

Padres Sign Wil Myers to 6-Year Contract NBC San Diego McVicker 24

Wil Myers, Padres finalize $83 million, 6-year contract Associated Press AP 25

2017 Top 10 Prospects America Glaser 26

San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects Chat Baseball America Staff Report 36

Padres roster review: Alex Dickerson UT San Diego Sanders 57

Will Padres take over Chargers blood drive? NBC San Diego Strain 59

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Hoffman shouldn't have to wait Kevin Acee Contact Reporter

Trevor Hoffman will stand on a dais in a blanket of summer humidity in upstate New York and stir the assembled thousands with a speech that will almost certainly pay tribute to his Marine father and his brothers and a signature pitch that took stones to throw softly and the San Diego crowd going out of its mind as Hells Bells tolled.

One day. Maybe soon.

It should happen on the final Sunday of this coming July.

The man who was for a time major-league baseball’s all-time saves leader and for whom the award for the National League’s best reliever is named should be in the Hall of Fame class set to be announced at 3 p.m. PT on Wednesday.

Let’s get something out of the way before we get to the meat and potatoes of why the Padres blue collar should have his plaque in Cooperstown.

Dangit, San Diego needs this.

More than ever, San Diego should get to celebrate at this moment and into the summer that rare adopted native son who loved us back maybe even as much as we loved him. If the adoration wasn’t symmetrically reciprocal with Hoffman, it was only because Trevor is absolutely adored in the way only an icon can be. His statue will occupy a corner of Petco Park one day not too far in the future, sharing the rare air with the bronze likeness of Mr. Padre, from whom Hoffman learned some of the enduring qualities of being a professional.

Now, about the man who earned his induction with 601 career saves, all but 47 of them earned in 16 seasons with the Padres.

SIX. HUNDRED. And One.

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For whatever arguments against Hoffman’s immediate induction – which center mostly on workload and modern metrics plus a pinch of assumption – the enormousness of 601 trumps all.

As of Tuesday evening, with 53.6 percent of the votes accounted for (and posted on bbhoftracker.com) Hoffman was named on 73 percent of the known ballots. That is exactly two percentage points below the minimum required for induction.

Last year, his first time on the ballot, Hoffman’s final tally of 67.3 percent was seven- tenths higher than what bbhoftracker.com had as its final pre-announcement tally.

What we can be assured of is that his initial percentage and his upward movement from year to year portend eventual enshrinement. Every player who got as big a share of votes as Hoffman did in his first year of eligibility ended up making the Hall at some point.

Yet, why he must wait any longer than Wednesday afternoon is perplexing.

He did his job – the one he was asked to do – better than most who ever have tried to do any job.

There are just five relief in the Hall of Fame. All but one of them () pitched more innings in his career than Hoffman. All of them pitched more innings per outing.

The knock against Hoffman emanates mostly from his role as a ninth-inning specialist. , , , Hoyt Wilhelm and Sutter all worked far more games in which they got four or more outs. And, as a for-instance, Gossage threw more than 100 innings in four seasons while Hoffman never pitched more than 88 and topped 70 just four times.

Even the most ardent Hoffman booster can acknowledge there is a difference in the workload.

Oh well.

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Ted Williams hit .400 when infields were pocked with pebbles and gloves were prehistorically puny. Babe Ruth swatted 714 home runs without ever facing a with pigment.

Why is Hoffman penalized for being a closer in the era in which he played?

Especially when he was so far and away better at it for longer than almost anyone else.

There is also a thought shared by many that, there are a lot of starting pitchers, even middling ones, who could be effective closers. It’s just one inning every other day or so, goes the argument. is a Hall of Famer in part because he spent three sensational seasons as a closer in the middle of his career as a starter. (Smoltz is not included among the five relievers in the Hall of Fame due to his extensive time as a starter.)

For every Smoltz, though, there are 10 Mike Jameses or Mike Adamses.

If being a closer these days is so easy, why is Francisco Rodriguez the only current player even worth talking about with a chance to pass Hoffman’s career total?

Of course, even at the pace of 42 saves he has set over the past three seasons, the 35- year-old Rodriguez wouldn’t pass Hoffman until 2021. He may well do it. Hoffman retired at 42, Rivera at 44. But Rodriguez hasn’t done it yet.

Hoffman is being stalled by so many silly suppositions.

All we really know is Hoffman actually did it.

Mariano Rivera, the Yankees closer who eventually passed Hoffman’s career saves mark and retired with 652, is the only one who was clearly better in the era they shared. And there isn’t the vast gulf between them that many assume.

Both converted 89 percent of their opportunities.

Hoffman ranked in the top 10 in saves all but three of 16 seasons from 1994 and 2009. Rivera was in the top 10 in 11 of 17 seasons from 1997 to 2013. There was no

4 one else in the top 10 in that era – from the mid-90s to present day – as often as Hoffman or Rivera.

Longevity is a talent. Consistency is an asset that can’t be overstated.

Hoffman didn’t have nearly the number of playoff opportunities as Rivera and did have a few memorable postseason slips.That resonates with many voters, as it should.

But, again, six-oh-one.

That’s 123 more than third-place .

Some say that Hoffman must wait until after Rivera is inducted. And his postseason heroics and standing atop the save mountaintop make Rivera likely to be enshrined in his year of eligibility in 2019.

Making some players wait their turn has merit only because each selector is able to vote for just 10 players. That constraint means some voters feel compelled to prioritize. That could come into play this year if a voter felt strongly about nine players and then had to choose between Hoffman, in his second year on the ballot, and Tim Raines, in his final (10th) year before he drops off the ballot.

But making Hoffman, whose saves record (601) Rivera passed, wait for a player who retired three years after he did is silly.

Hoffman was dominant in his era and ranks among the best ever in his discipline’s key statistic.

There is no clear-cut definition of what makes a player Hall of Fame-worthy, but excellence against your peers and how you measure up against all who ever played would seem to be as good a criteria as any.

And actually, the Hall of Fame’s guidelines do say this: “Voting shall be based upon on the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. And check.

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We know Hoffman will get to Cooperstown.

He deserves it to be now. Even more than we do.

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Again, Trevor Hoffman up for Hall vote

Jeff Sanders Contact Reporter

Strange as it may sound, these are good times if you’re pursuing the Hall of Fame under a cloud of steroid suspicion, but not so much if you’re a saves specialist, even as an elite member of your generation.

At least, that’s the tale the Baseball Writers Association of America voters are weaving in 2017 as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens make significant gains in exit polling while the case of celebrated Padres closer Trevor Hoffman is again picked apart on all fronts.

He’s a compiler. He wasn’t good enough to start. His greatness is manufactured, his National League-record 601 saves the product of good fortune gifting him a ninth-inning job instead of a role in the seventh or eighth.

What inning you pitch, some will tell you, makes no difference.

Hoffman says this: “Go do it.”

Easier said than done. Much easier.

No one had ever saved 500 games when Hoffman and his Bugs Bunny change-up zoomed past record-holder Lee Smith to reach that milestone. Then he was the first to eclipse 600 in an 18-year career that saw the converted shortstop pile up seven All- Star selections, three top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting and more 40-save seasons than anyone but , who also accomplished the feat nine times.

Of course, most view the Yankees’ infamous closer – whose 56.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is more than double Hoffman’s (28.0), according to baseball- reference.com – as a first-ballot inductee when he’s eligible in 2019. Meantime, Hoffman – with 51 fewer saves than Rivera but 211 more than any other inductee – is trending just under 73 percent on the more than 200 public ballots collected by Hall- of-Fame tracker Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs on Twitter) in his second year up for induction. 7

“I think last year it was the unknown factor,” said Hoffman, who’s planning to wait through Wednesday’s announcement on MLB Network without much fanfare — just his family. “You weren’t sure how people viewed your career. This year is different in the sense that it’s do we continue to climb or do we back off a little bit?

“I’m optimistically hopeful.”

The good news for Hoffman is no one has ever debuted as well as he did a year ago (67.3 percent) without eventually reaching the 75-percent induction threshold. What’s not so good is that, on a crowded ballot, the likes of Bonds and Clemens have made some 15-percent gains in Thibodaux’s tracking as the value of a closer is scrutinized more and more by a constituency growing younger by the year.

A great deal of that population is no fan of the save, either.

“In Hoffman’s case, I simply cannot oblige someone who throws an inning at a time,” Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan wrote in a series of Tweets upon submitting a Hoffman-less ballot in December. “Yes, I am penalizing him for his job – as I do others. Hoffman was great at what he did, but what he did, for me, didn’t nearly have the impact on the games themselves as so many other players.”

Rivera, the 36-year-old Passan says, is the lone closer for which he’ll vote, his noteworthy resume over 96 postseason games (0.70 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 42 saves) pushing him over the top.

Of course, Hoffman pitched in just 12 playoff games (3.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, four saves) for the Padres. He recorded just 55 four-plus-out saves compared to Rivera’s 119. His 1,089 1/3 innings pitched are also fewer than every enshrined pitcher outside Bruce Sutter (1,042 IP), whose modest 300 saves included a whopping 188 of at least four outs.

Indeed, Hoffman got the job done just about as well as anyone ever has – his 88.8 percent save rate is third-best among closers with at least 300 saves. It’s just that the job is in question as it relates to baseball’s Hall of Fame, where only one of the top- five eligible saves artists is in: Dennis Eckersely, who paired 100 complete-game wins as a starter with his 390 saves, seventh all-time. 8

ALL-TIME SAVES LEADERS

1. Mariano Rivera, 652 2. Trevor Hoffman, 601 3. Lee Smith, 478 4. Francisco Rodriguez, 430 5. , 424 6. , 422 7. Dennis Eckersley+, 390 8. , 377 9. , 368 10. Jeff Reardon, 367

Note: Only Eckersley is in the Hall of Fame. Other closers in the Hall of Fame include Rollie Fingers (341), Goose Gossage (310), Bruce Sutter (300), Hoyt Wilhelm (228) and John Smoltz (154). Players in bold are active.

Not Lee Smith (478 saves), who is on the ballot for the 15th and final time and trending at just 29.9 percent. Not John Franco (422), who fell off the ballot after one vote. Not Billy Wagner (422), who is well behind Hoffman after garnering just 10.5 percent of the vote in last year’s debut.

“I feel like I need to apologize when I hear people break it down like they do,” Hoffman said with a chuckle. “All I ever cared about was preparing every day to compete.”

He did so from the start of his pitching career, which began in A-ball as a 23-year-old at Cedar Rapids in 1991 after a failed career as a hitter (.591 OPS).

Hoffman pitched 27 games that year, started 11 of the 48 he pitched in the next year to build up innings and experience and was in a big league bullpen the following year.

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Hoffman even saved a handful of games that year, the first in April while Bryan Harvey, the Marlins’ go-to man in the ninth, was away from the team. The way he approached that opportunity foreshadowed his success in his role in San Diego, his landing spot as part of the Gary Sheffield trade later that summer.

“It was another situation where you just tried to put your head down,” Hoffman said, “try to throw strikes and get outs.”

Hoffman got all three without giving up a hit and wasn’t punished for the walk he yielded. He recorded another save for Florida in June, three more for the Padres after the trade and then 20 in 1994 as he began to emerge as one of the game’s pre-eminent relievers at a time when managers were turning to their bullpens more than ever.

Judging by the record contracts signed by Aroldis Chapman ($86 million), ($80 million) and ($62 million), that’s still the case.

“I know a lot of managers enjoy having someone you trust late in the game,” Hoffman said. “There was a lot of focus on them in my era. I know that it was important to build backwards, to say you were comfortable with who you had in the in ninth inning.”

Padres managers had that luxury throughout Hoffman’s 18-year career. Only time will tell if that’s significant enough to end this waiting game.

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Padres sign Wil Myers to six- year, $83 million extension

Dennis Lin Contact Reporter

Wil Myers and the Padres have reached the finish line on the largest contract in franchise history. The team on Tuesday announced a six-year, $83 million extension that includes a club option for a seventh year.

According to sources, the 26-year-old first baseman will receive a $15 million signing bonus, of which $1 million is payable within 30 days of approval by the commissioner’s office, $5.5 million on Nov. 15, 2018, and $8.5 million on Nov. 15, 2019. He will make $2 million in 2017 and 2018, $3 million in 2019 and $20 million from 2020 through 2022. The option for 2023 is worth $20 million with a $1 million buyout. Myers gets a one-time $1 million assignment bonus if he is traded.

"He’s here in the short-term, medium-term and long-term," Padres General Manager A.J. Preller said. "That was ... the idea behind making the commitment.

"You need guys that are plus players, and you need a lot of them to win titles and championships. He’s in that mold. It’s all about having him be a core piece for us in the next few years, knowing that there’s going to be younger players around him in the next couple years, and hopefully a team that’s going to be very competitive, with him being a big piece of it."

Myers will address the media in a press conference Monday at Petco Park.

“I want to thank the Padres organization for giving me this opportunity, and Padres fans for their support,” Myers said in a statement. “I’ve loved my time in San Diego and I’m excited to be a part of what we’re building for the future.”

A 2016 National League All-Star, Myers had been arbitration-eligible for the first time. The extension will cover all three years of his eligibility, plus three years of would-be free agency. If the club option is exercised, he will remain in San Diego

11 through his age-33 season. While the Padres have thrown the vast majority of their resources into a rebuilding effort, they believe Myers’ prime could align with their next run at the postseason.

Quelling some concerns about past wrist injuries, Myers played a full major league season for the first time last year. In 157 games, he hit .259 with a .336 on-base percentage, 28 home runs and 28 steals. Evaluators had anticipated such production after Myers won the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year award with Tampa Bay.

"You want to find guys that you can build around as young guys can come into the organization," Padres manager Andy Green said Monday. "A guy that, as a manager, I connect very well with, respect immensely. I think Wil is that type of guy. I think we’re very excited about the prospect of having him for years to come."

With the Padres widely expected to repeat their last-place finish from 2016, Myers should serve as the featured attraction at Petco Park. Though he turned 26 last month, he wields more experience than most of the roster. The Padres currently have eight players, with a combined salary of about $15 million, under contract for 2017. The rest of the team will make close to the major league minimum.

"It’s not about getting to a certain payroll level this year," Preller said. "It’s about building your system, growing your team that isn’t going to be average in the next few years.

"You still need pieces in the major leagues that are quality ballplayers and are going to help transition those guys through and are going to be here hopefully when we get good in a few years."

For his part, Myers retains room for improvement. The former top prospect reaffirmed his pedigree during the first half of last season, hitting .286 with 19 home runs. He hit just .223 with nine home runs the rest of the way.

After Myers' promising rookie season, wrist ailments limited him to 87 games in 2014 and, following his trade to San Diego, 60 games in 2015. He underwent surgery that August to remove a bone spur from his left wrist. 12

Through 1,663 plate appearances, Myers is a career .257 hitter with 55 home runs and 44 steals. He debuted in the majors as an outfielder before undergoing a successful transition to first base last season.

"We’ve seen him do some really good things, obviously," Preller said. "But there’s still things with Wil where we still see upside, we still see potential. ... I don’t think we’ve really seen his full potential, and we’re excited to see that here in the next few years in San Diego."

Shortly after the All-Star Game in July, Myers and the Padres acknowledged mutual interest in exploring a long-term extension. Formal discussions, which began after the end of the season, had accelerated in recent weeks.

"We could’ve gone year to year and just see how it played out," Preller said, "but from our standpoint, we’re making a commitment that he’s a guy we want to grow with.

"He wants to be a part of it. He really enjoyed the city of San Diego. He wants to be here the next few years, when hopefully we turn this thing around."

The Padres’ previous contract record belonged to James Shields, who signed a four- year, $75 million deal nearly two years ago. In June, following the dismal failure that was 2015, the team jettisoned the veteran right-hander to the Chicago White Sox, agreeing to pay much of his remaining salary.

In the younger, dynamic Myers, the Padres envision a star to lead them into contention.

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Padres roster review: Miguel Diaz

Jeff Sanders Contact Reporter

Sizing up the Padres’ 40-man roster, from A to Z, heading into the 2017 season.

MIGUEL DIAZ

 Position: Right-handed pitcher  Acquired: 2016 Rule-5 draft (Brewers) via a trade with the Twins; Originally signed December 2011  2017 Opening Day age: 22  Contract status: Added to the 40-man roster in December; won’t be arbitration-eligible until after 2019 at the earliest  Key stats (low-A): 1-8, 3.71 ERA, 3 saves, 91 , 29 walks, 1.18 WHIP, .226 avg. against, 94 2/3 innings (26 games, 15 starts)

Stat to note 0 – Innings above A-ball in his career

Trending Up – Although an elbow injury prevented him from building on his stellar 2014 rookie ball campaign (10.1 strikeouts per nine innings), Diaz pushed his inning total from a mere 20 1/3 in 2015 to 94 2/3 innings last year in his first taste of full-season ball. He struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings, posted the second-lowest WHIP of his career and lowered his hit rate to 7.9 per nine innings, also the second-lowest of his career. Even with his ERA ticking up from 2.21 in 2015 to 3.71 in 2016, Diaz’s stuff – a mid-90s with late action, a slider and a change – excited the Padres’ front office enough to trade up to the No. 1 spot in the Rule 5 draft to nab him.

2017 outlook Like Luis Perdomo last year, Diaz’s best chance of sticking in the majors the entire year as a Rule 5 draft pick is in the bullpen. He’ll have to remain on the active roster a 14 minimum of 90 days (non on the disabled list) if the Padres want to continue his development in the minors after the 2017 season, although there’s always a chance that circumstances advance his rate of improvement as it did for Perdomo while finishing 2016 in the rotation.

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Watch HOF announcement coverage live, noon PT today

By Barry M. Bloom / MLB.com | @boomskie | 8:41 AM ET

NEW YORK -- Today is the big day. The National Baseball Hall of Fame announces its Class of 2017, selected in a vote last month by the eligible members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

As many as five candidates -- and possibly six -- could be elected according to the public ballots amassed online, with Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell looking all but certain, plus Ivan Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman hovering around the 75-percent threshold. Even Edgar Martinez has made huge gains from last year and is within reach of election.

The results of the 73rd BBWAA Hall of Fame election will be revealed at 6 p.m. ET live on MLB Network, and simulcast live on MLB.com beginning at 3 p.m.

The Class of 2017, along with MLB Commissioner Emeritus Bud Selig and Braves vice chairman John Schuerholz, will be inducted July 30 behind the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, N.Y. Those executives were voted in last month by the 16-member Today's Game Committee.

"I guess I'm anxious," said Bagwell, the former Astros first baseman in his seventh year on the ballot. "I just want to get it over with. This is the first year I've kind of been keeping track of it and just looking. I'm excited about it."

The Hall these days keeps the calls to the new electees as close to the public reveal as possible to avoid any leaks before president Jeff Idelson opens up the white envelope on camera. The votes will be tallied on Wednesday, and only an accountant, a representative from the Hall and Jack O'Connell, the longtime secretary-treasurer of the BBWAA, will be in attendance. O'Connell makes the calls and considers it his greatest honor.

This year, Ryan Thibodaux -- who has gained prominence for keeping tabs on public votes -- has tracked more than 200 ballots -- almost 50 percent of the 435-440 ballots expected to have been cast by the Dec. 31 deadline. Last year, 440 were filed when Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza were elected. Bagwell was short of the 330 votes needed by 15, Raines by 21 and Hoffman by 34.

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The 200-plus ballots already counted this year are hardly a small sample size. Raines and Bagwell, who are both tracking at around 90 percent, have to feel good about their chances. Rodriguez, Guerrero and Hoffman are all hovering around 75 percent among public ballots and seemed destined to get in at some point soon, if not this year.

Martinez, the slick designated hitter for the Mariners, is tracking just below them. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, each plagued by the shadow of performance-enhancing drugs, are both at around 60 percent -- a leap of almost 30 percent from where they finished only two years ago.

In recent years, percentages for position players go down and closers go up by as much as 5 percent when all the non-public ballots are counted. That bodes well for Hoffman, the all-time leader in the National League with 601 saves, in his second year on the ballot. Next year, all the BBWAA ballots will be made public a week after the election.

"I saw a column where I had about 60 percent of the vote among younger writers," Hoffman said. "It wasn't a huge backing by them. So, I hope [the recent voting trend] stands true."

The news for Raines is very promising. The left fielder, one of the top basestealers and leadoff men in Major League history, is in his 10th and final year on the writers' ballot.

Guerrero and Rodriguez -- one of the top in Major League history -- are making their ballot debuts. Guerrero, a slick fielding right-fielder and powerful hitter, would be the first native position player from the Dominican Republic elected. Pitchers Juan Marichal and Pedro Martinez are the only Dominicans with their plaques hung in the red-brick Hall of Fame Museum on Main Street in Cooperstown.

Both Raines and Guerrero began their careers with the and are most identified with that team, which already boasts the late Gary Carter and Andre Dawson in the Hall. Guerrero also played six seasons for the Angels, one of five teams still not represented by a single player in Cooperstown.

Raines, who played for six teams, including the 1996 and '98 -winning Yankees, said his heart belongs to the Expos, the team for which he played his first 13 seasons. If elected, he will go in wearing an Expos cap.

"Montreal means everything to me," he said. "The fans took me in as a son. I love Montreal. They appreciated the way I played the game. They let me know it. I feel like it helped me as a young guy. It

17 means a lot that the fans were behind me from Day One. It means a lot to a player. As players, you want to be welcomed, you want people to come out and see you perform. As a player, you love to hear what the fans think about you."

Hoffman, who had 552 of his saves in 16 years for San Diego, would be the third Padres player in the Hall, following Dave Winfield and eight-time NL batting champ, the late Tony Gwynn.

Bagwell, who spent his entire 15-year career in Houston, would be the second Astros player to get into the Hall, joining his teammate Craig Biggio, who was inducted in 2015.

Biggio said he will be watching.

"What happens when you know that you're on that cusp, and you're knocking on the door, the anxiety and excitement goes to a different level," said Biggio, who missed by a scant two votes in 2014, the year before he was elected.

"That's the craziest thing in the world. You don't control it. You submit your resume, and then hopefully people like your resume. You're like, 'Here's my resume. Here's where I played.' That's why it's so hard -- 75 percent is a big number, when you think about it."

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Padres lock up Myers through at least 2022 By AJ Cassavell / MLB.com | @AJCassavell | January 17th, 2017

SAN DIEGO -- It's official: The face of the Padres is set to remain in San Diego for at least six more seasons.

Wil Myers and the Padres finalized a six-year extension on Tuesday worth $83 million, the most lucrative contract in Padres history. The deal -- which covers three of Myers' arbitration years and three years of free agency -- also includes a $20 million team option for the 2023 season.

"I want to thank the Padres organization for giving me this opportunity, and Padres fans for their support," Myers said in a statement. "I've loved my time in San Diego and I'm excited to be a part of what we're building for the future."

In his first fully healthy season at the big league level, Myers was the Padres' best all-around player in 2016. He batted .259/.336/.461 with 28 homers and 28 steals, earning an All-Star nod and finishing as a Gold Glove finalist in his first season at first base.

The Padres view the 26-year-old Myers as a piece to build around. Over the past year, the Friars have invested heavily in their farm system, and they feel Myers' prime will intersect nicely with the emergence of a crop of talented youngsters.

"Hopefully you're buying the prime years of Wil's career, from 26 to 31," said Padres general manager A.J. Preller. "He's a player that obviously showed last year he's got All-Star-caliber potential. He's a guy that can be part of a nucleus of a championship-type team. … That really made [the extension] attractive for us and Wil. He's a guy that's still a young player, has a lot of baseball left in the prime of his career -- but a guy that lines up with our younger guys coming up."

"He's passionate about what we're building here in San Diego, loves being a part of the community," Padres manager Andy Green said on Monday. "I think you want to find guys that you can build around as young guys come into the organization. ... Wil is that type of guy. We're very excited about the prospect of having him for years to come. There's still limitless potential within Wil that he hasn't tapped yet."

With $83 million guaranteed, Myers surpasses James Shields (for whom he was once traded) as the recipient of the largest contract in Padres history. Myers will be paid $22 million over his three would-be arbitration years -- including a $15 million signing bonus. He'll then receive $20 million per year over the 19 next three seasons and has a $1 million buyout structured into the 2023 team option. If he is traded, Myers would also receive a $1 million assignment bonus. The announcement came days after the Padres locked up third baseman Yangervis Solarte for the long- term as well. With the two signings, Preller and the Padres have avoided all potential arbitration hearings for a third consecutive offseason.

"From an ownership standpoint, when we have talented players, they're going to do their part to keep them in San Diego, to grow and build a championship club," Preller said. "When it's the right time here in the next few years, we'll get guys to supplement what hopefully is a talented nucleus that we're growing from within." Myers came to the Padres in December 2014 as part of the three-team deal that sent Joe Ross and Trea Turner to Washington. He earned the American League Rookie of the Year Award with Tampa Bay in '13, before playing only 147 games over the next two seasons because of wrist issues.

He burst back onto the scene last June, taking home NL Player of the Month honors while batting .327/.429/.765 with 11 homers. The summer surge earned him a starting spot in the All-Star Game at Petco Park.

"Part of being a fan, you want to root for guys that make you want to turn on the TV every night, guys that make you want to come out to the ballpark," Preller said. "I think Wil last year -- definitely in the first half of the season -- showed he was that kind of guy."

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Hoffman's HOF fate about to be revealed

By AJ Cassavell / MLB.com | @AJCassavell | 11:26 AM ET

SAN DIEGO -- Like the ninth inning of so many games in which he pitched, Trevor Hoffman's 2017 Hall of Fame push is coming down to the wire.

Live coverage of the announcement begins at 12 p.m. PT Wednesday on MLB Network and MLB.com, and preliminary results have Hoffman hovering right around the 75 percent threshold required for enshrinement. His case is one of the most fascinating on the ballot, and there won't be any indication of the final result until his name is -- or isn't -- called.

In recent years, social media has diminished some of the drama surrounding the Hall of Fame announcement. Many writers divulge their ballots early, giving fans a glimpse into the potential results.

But in the case of Hoffman -- who finished with 67.3 percent of the vote last January -- the early returns have only served to add to the suspense. Ryan Thibodaux's ballot tracker keeps tabs on Hall of Fame voting trends, accounting for all ballots released to the public. With 235 ballots on file -- just over half of the overall total -- Hoffman has received 72.7 percent of the vote.

"It's going to be a couple of percentage points either way," Hoffman told MLB.com recently. "It's going to be a little nerve-racking, no doubt about it."

Among returning voters, Hoffman has been added to 29 ballots and was dropped from eight. He missed by 34 votes last year, which would seem to put him on the verge of election this time around. One key number worth watching, however, is Hoffman's inclusion among first-time voters. With a younger generation of writers more prone to lean on advanced metrics like WAR, Hoffman has been named on only eight of 13 first-year ballots.

Accounting for all those factors, Thibodaux estimates that Hoffman needs to gain 17 votes among the 214 or so ballots that have not been revealed.

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"To me, it's not something I kind of have to have," Hoffman said after the ballot was unveiled in November. "If I'm around family, and it turns out the right way, and I get a call, I'm sure it will be fantastic."

Judging by historical trends, it's overwhelmingly likely Hoffman reaches the Hall eventually. It's his second year on the ballot, and every player who has received at least 50 percent in his first try was eventually enshrined in Cooperstown. The case for Hoffman is clear. He pitched 18 seasons in the big leagues, 16 of which came in San Diego. During that time, Hoffman racked up 601 saves, second only to surefire Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. And among relievers with at least 1,000 innings, Hoffman ranks second in save percentage (88.8), eighth in ERA (2.87), fourth in ERA+ (141), second in opponents' batting average (.211), second in WHIP (1.06) and first in rate (25.8).

"I was actually surprised he didn't get in on the first ballot," said former Padres general manager Randy Smith, who brought Hoffman to San Diego in a 1993 trade with the Florida Marlins. "I thought he was a first-ballot guy. It's going to be very close this year. In my mind, the wait's going to be very short. If he doesn't get in this year, it's going to be next year."

The numbers back Smith's assertion. Since 2000, eight players have received 67.3 percent or higher without hitting 75. Seven reached the Hall in the following year, with Jack Morris as the lone exception.

But an induction ceremony this summer would be especially meaningful to a city reeling from the loss of its NFL team. No, Hoffman's enshrinement would not offset the effects of the Chargers' relocation to Los Angeles. But, after a difficult week, it would give local fans a reason to cheer for a beloved sports figure.

"I'm incredibly hopeful ... there's an announcement that Trevor is in the Hall of Fame," Padres manager Andy Green said. "This city would enjoy that kind of news to celebrate. He's as beloved in this city as anybody."

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Winter updates on Bethancourt, Pirela playing left field and pitching in Panama

By Bill Center / San Diego Padres | 10:46 AM ET Christian Bethancourt has played 10 games -- seven as a left fielder and three as a -- in Panama as he begins an effort to become a hybrid catcher/pitcher/outfielder.

Hitters are 2-for-11 against the 25-year-old Bethancourt as a pitcher. He hasn't allowed a run in three one- inning appearances, with two strikeouts and no walks. His fastball has ranged from 93 to 97 mph.

Bethancourt has not caught in his native land, but he is starting in left on days he is not scheduled to pitch. As a hitter, Bethancourt is 4-for-31 with the Caballos de Cocle, with a double and four runs scored. He has a .229 on-base percentage. Meanwhile, Jose Pirela doubled in three at-bats and scored the game's only run Tuesday night as Zulia defeated the Caribes, 1-0, to advance to the championship round of the Venezuelan Winter League playoffs.

Pirela is hitting .286 with two home runs in the playoffs. He is playing left and hitting second, third and fifth in Zulia's batting order. Infielder Fernando Perez is still active in the Mexican Pacific League playoffs, although he has been playing part-time with Hermosillo over the past week. Perez, a product of Otay Ranch High, is hitting .417 (5-for-12) in the playoffs.

Three other Padres prospects remain active in the Australian Baseball League.

Second baseman River Stevens has hit safely in nine of his past 10 games (14-for-37) to raise his season batting average to .342. That is the third-highest average in Australia. Stevens also ranks 10th with a .388 on-base percentage. Catcher Marcus Greene Jr. is hitting .310 in Australia, and he is tied for the league lead with six homers and is fourth in RBIs with 23. He is 13-for-31 (.310) over the past 10 games.

Right-hander Zech Lemond has a 1.20 ERA over 15 innings in 10 appearances in Australia. He has allowed 10 hits and six walks while striking out 15.

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Padres Sign Wil Myers to 6-Year Contract By Laura McVicker Padres fan favorite Wil Myers has signed a six-year contract, the team announced on Tuesday.

The contract keeps the first baseman in San Diego through the 2022 season with a club option for the 2023 season, the Padres said in a news release.

Myers had the best offensive season for a right-handed hitting Padre in the Petco Park era, clubbing 28 home runs with 94 RBI, 28 doubles and stealing 28 bags. Myers was the cleanup hitter for the National League in the All-Star game and became a fan favorite.

It was unclear how much the contract cost the Padres, but talks were reportedly in the 6-year, $80 million range.

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Wil Myers, Padres finalize $83 million, 6-year contract

The Associated Press•Jan 17, 2017, 4:52 PM

SAN DIEGO (AP) -- First baseman Wil Myers and the San Diego Padres finalized an $83 million, six-year contract on Tuesday, the largest deal in the team's history.

The 26-year-old Myers hit 28 homers and drove in 94 runs last season and also stole 28 bases.

''He's got all sorts of potential,'' Padres general manager A.J. Preller said on a conference call. ''He can be the nucleus of championship-type team.''

Myers, who had been eligible for salary arbitration, receives a $15 million signing bonus, of which $1 million is payable within 15 days of the deal's approval by the commissioner's office, $5.5 million on Nov. 15, 2018, and $8.5 million on Nov. 15, 2019.

He gets salaries of $2 million apiece in the next two seasons, $3 million in 2019 and $20 million in each of the final three years. San Diego has a $20 million team option for 2023 with a $1 million buyout. Myers gets a suite on road trips and would get a one-time $1 million assignment bonus if traded.

''Hopefully you're buying the prime years of Wil's career,'' Preller said. ''You need some core pieces that are going to be there.''

''Our plan is we try to invest in guys we think are going to be here for the future. There is going to have to be some patience. There are going to be some young guys on the field this year. It's going to be fun to see how that group grows together in the next few years,'' he said.

Myers would have been eligible for free agency after the 2019 season. The deal tops a $75 million, four-year contract pitcher James Shields signed before the 2015 season.

Myers was an All-Star last season when the game was played at Petco Park. His production tailed off after the break.

''What he showed the fans of San Diego the first half, the great ones do that all year long,'' Preller said. ''He's excited to put together two halves. I don't think we've really seen his full potential. It's the first time he's been through the grind of 162 games.''

Myers was called up midway through his rookie years and then had two seasons that were interrupted by a wrist injury.

''He wants to be here the next few years when hopefully we turn this thing around,'' Preller said.

Myers will hold a news conference at Petco Park on Monday.

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2017 San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects January 16, 2017 By Kyle Glaser

Everything that could go wrong for the Padres did go wrong in the major leagues in 2016. The Padres not only suffered their sixth straight losing season, but posted their worst record in that time with a 68-94 mark. First-year manager Andy Green injected energy and optimism into the clubhouse, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the calamities that struck the franchise. After a 16-4 shellacking at the hands of the Mariners on May 31 that dropped the Padres’ record to 20-33, executive chairman Ron Fowler publicly called the team “miserable failures” on their flagship radio station. And so began a fire sale, with veterans James Shields, Matt Kemp, , Melvin Upton, Andrew Cashner and all traded by August, starting the latest rebuilding process in a franchise history full of them. Even the fire sale didn’t go smoothly. suspended general manager A.J. Preller in September for 30 days after ruling he did not properly disclose relevant medical information to the Red Sox in their July trade of Pomeranz. Another trade with the Marlins was modified after righthander Colin Rea, one of the players the Padres traded, suffered a torn UCL in his first start with Miami. The two parties reworked the deal to return Rea to the Padres and promising righthander Luis Castillo to the Marlins. Things got even worse after the season, when team president and CEO Mike Dee was fired without explanation. With the front office in disarray and the major league product delivering its worst performance this decade, the season’s lone positives could be found on the farm. Homegrown prospects such as outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Michael Gettys, second baseman Luis Urias and righthanders Jacob Nix and all took significant steps forward in their development. Offseason acquisitions such as outfielder Manuel Margot, second baseman Carlos Asuaje, lefthander Logan Allen and righthander Enyel de los Santos showed promise. Most importantly, the midseason trades of veterans yielded an intriguing haul of prospect talent, led by righthander , first baseman Josh Naylor, righthander and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres furthered bolstered their system with three of the 2016 draft’s top 25 picks, and then shattered spending records during the international signing period. San Diego spent upwards of $60 million signing international amateur talent, including penalties for overages, and brought in eight of the top 50 international prospects in the class, including three of the top six. The injection of talent from all avenues turned the Padres system into one of the game’s deepest. Now, the team must develop it to end years of poor performance and reverse the entrenched skepticism in San Diego.

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1. Anderson Espinoza, rhp | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: March 9, 1998. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 160. Signed: Venezuela, 2014. Signed by: Eddie Romero/Manny Padron (Red Sox).

on rather than present tools.

Background: While some teenage international standouts fly under the radar, Espinoza is one whose promise has been evident for some time. Considered the top available pitcher by a wide margin in the 2014 international class, he signed with the Red Sox for $1.8 million. If Espinoza felt any pressure from the lofty expectations he never showed it, zooming all the way from the Dominican Summer League to low in 2015, his age-17 season, and ranking as one of baseball’s top prospects one year after signing. The Red Sox were reluctant to part with him but ultimately did in a one-for-one swap for Drew Pomeranz two days after Pomeranz pitched in the 2016 All-Star Game as a member of the host Padres. Scouting Report: The lean Espinoza is not physically intimidating but possesses a strong lower half and electric arm speed that allows him to nonetheless pitch with elite velocity. He is not dissimilar from fellow 6-foot flamethrower Yordano Ventura in that regard. Espinoza’s 95-98 mph four-seam fastball possesses so much late tail away from lefthanded batters that Padres broadcaster and former major league pitcher Mark Grant confused it for a two-seamer—a mistake made by others before him—and Espinoza commands it masterfully to both sides of the plate. His main secondary pitch is a mid-80s that is above-average on a bad day and “simply fantastic” in the words of one opposing scout on a good one. His upper-70s lacks consistency but still flashes plus with 11-to-5 movement. Spotty command of his breaking pitches led to Espinoza getting hit more often at low Class A in 2016 than his pure stuff indicates he should, and he also struggled with trying to be too fine at times rather than attacking hitters. He admitted being a bit shell-shocked after being traded and struggled in his first few outings in the Padres system, but he adjusted and finished strong with 10 strikeouts and just two runs allowed in his final two starts at Fort Wayne. He continued that with a dominant 1-2-3 inning in the Padres’ futures game at Petco Park on Oct. 7, where he struck out two Rangers batters. His exceptional performance on a big stage at Petco was nothing new for Espinoza, who draws raves for his ability to reach back and find something extra in big moments. He possesses exceptional makeup and intelligence, signified both by his poise on the mound and the fact he learned English almost fluently by age 18, less than two years after first coming to the U.S.

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The Future: Ventura is a common comparison for Espinoza in terms of size and raw stuff, but Espinoza does it easier and possesses superior makeup and maturity that should help him surpass the Royals righthander. He has all the tools to become a front-of-the-rotation ace and will look to solidify that profile atop high Class A Lake Elsinore’s rotation to begin 2017. If he stays healthy and all goes according to plan, Espinoza should be in line to make his Padres debut by 2018 as a 20-year-old.

2016 Club W L ERA G G

Greenville (LoA) 5 8 4.38 17 1

Fort Wayne (LoA) 1 3 4.73 8 7

2. Manuel Margot, of | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: Sept. 18, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2011. Signed by: Manny Nanita/Craig Shipley (Red Sox). Background: The Red Sox signed Margot for $800,000 as a 16-year old international free agent in 2011 and watched him stand out at every level as he ascended their system. He was a Top 100 Prospect when the Padres acquired him and three other players for closer after the 2015 season. Scouting Report: Margot possesses strong wrists and exceptional feel for the barrel, allowing him to make consistent hard contact. His plus speed helps his bat play up, turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples, and his control of the strike zone was uncanny for a player his age at Triple-A. The sum of all of that profiles Margot as a plus offensive player, even with fringe-average power. Margot dramatically improved his reads and routes throughout 2016, which combined with his superb raw speed and athleticism, turned him into one of the top defensive outfielders in the upper minors. His above-average arm also took a huge leap forward in 2016, with corrected footwork leading to more strength behind his throws to the point he led the with 18 assists. The Future: Margot has everything you want in a top-of-the-order center fielder and will begin to fill that role with the Padres in 2017.

2016 Club AVG OBP SLG A

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El Paso (AAA) .304 .351 .426 5

San Diego (MLB) .243 .243 .305 3

3. Hunter Renfroe, of | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: Jan. 28, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 220. Drafted: Mississippi State, 2013 (1st round). Signed by: Andrew Salvo. Background: Renfroe was a hometown hero at Mississippi State, where he anchored the Bulldogs’ lineup and led them to the College World Series as junior. The Padres drafted him 13th overall after that season in 2013 and he signed for $2.678 million. Scouting Report: Renfroe’s carrying tool has long been his mammoth raw power, but up until 2016 it was largely to his pull side and came with a 25 percent career strikeout rate. He closed his stance and shortened his stroke in 2016 at Triple-A El Paso and had his best season yet, hitting 10 of his Pacific Coast League-leading 30 home runs the opposite way and cutting his strikeout rate to 20 percent as he rolled to the circuit’s MVP award. He continued to mash after his first big league callup in September with four home runs in 11 games—including a titanic blast onto the roof of the Western Metal Supply Co. building, beyond the left-field wall at Petco Park. Renfroe’s improved feel to hit and massive power comes with a double-plus arm in right field and the athleticism to hold down the position ably. The Future: Renfroe’s aggressiveness will keep his strikeouts high and his walks low, but the swing adjustments he has made give him a better chance to annually reach his 30-homer potential. He will be the Padres’ Opening Day right fielder in 2017.

2016 Club AVG OBP SLG AB

El Paso (AAA) .306 .336 .557 53

San Diego (MLB) .371 .389 .800 35

4. Cal Quantrill, rhp |

29 image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: Feb. 10, 1995. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 165. Drafted: Stanford, 2016 (1st round). Signed by: Sam Ray. Background: The son of former Blue Jays all-star reliever Paul Quantrill was drafted by the Yankees in the 26th round out of high school. He instead went to Stanford, where he became the first freshman pitcher to start Opening Day since Mike Mussina in 1988. Quantrill pitched just three games as a sophomore before requiring Tommy John surgery, which kept him out all of his junior season as well. Undeterred, the Padres drafted him eighth overall and signed him for $3,963,045. Scouting Report: Quantrill displayed no ill effects from surgery once he got into the Padres’ system, showing a 92-96 mph fastball and diving 81-84 mph changeup that was considered the best in the 2016 draft class. His slider showed vast improvement by sitting 83-84 mph with late bite to become an above-average offering. Quantrill’s command remains shaky post-surgery, but he was around the strike zone with all of his pitches during his pro debut. He possesses the poise and pitchability expected from the son of a former major leaguer, and his competitiveness earns raves. The Future: Quantrill hasn’t pitched a full season since 2014, so the Padres will manage his workload carefully in 2017 at low Class A Fort Wayne.

2016 Club W L ERA G G

AZL Padres (R) 0 2 5.27 5

Tri-City (SS) 0 2 1.93 5

Fort Wayne (LoA) 0 1 17.36 2

5. Adrian Morejon, lhp | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: Feb. 27, 1999. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 195. Signed: Cuba, 2016. Background: Morejon jumped on the international radar when he was named MVP of the 15U World Cup in 2014 while pitching for the Cuban national team. His biggest moment came in the gold medal game, when he threw 124 pitches in a complete-game, 6-3 victory against the U.S.

30 with 12 strikeouts and one walk. Morejon became a talent considered on par with any top-10 draft pick, and the Padres signed him for an eye-popping $11 million in July 2016. Scouting Report: Morejon throws a 91-93 mph fastball that touches 96 with an athletic, easy delivery that portends more velocity as the teen southpaw’s body matures. His ability to spin a future plus curveball draws the highest praise from scouts, and he throws two different —one a knuckle-change with late diving action and the other a more traditional changeup with sink and run. Both project above-average. Morejon’s above-average command, stuff, arm action and feel for pitching are all advanced for his age and make few opposing evaluators doubt the wisdom of signing him, though some shied away from the price tag. The Future: The Padres compare Morejon with the Dodgers’ Julio Urias, while scouts outside the organization compare his delivery and stuff with Padres 2012 first-rounder Max Fried. He is targeted for 100 innings and will begin the year in extended .

2016 Club W L ERA G GS C

Did not play—signed 2017 contract

6. Luis Urias, 2b/ss | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: June 3, 1997. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-9. Wt.: 160. Signed: Mexico, 2013. Signed by: Chad MacDonald/Robert Rowley. Background: The Padres purchased Urias from the Mexican League’s Mexico City franchise when he 16, intrigued by his bat control and plate discipline. He has rewarded that interest by posting a career .317 career average in the minors with more walks than strikeouts. Scouting Report: Urias’ foundation for success is his approach. He rarely swings at anything outside the strike zone, forcing pitchers to come to him. When they do, his quick hands and elite hand-eye coordination allow him to barrel any velocity, while those same tools allow him to track breaking balls and square them up as well. Using those attributes as his base, Urias hit .330 at high Class A Lake Elsinore in 2016 to win the batting title and MVP award despite being the circuit’s youngest player on Opening Day. He faces questions about his below-average speed and power, though he showed progress on the latter front by slugging .505 in the second half of 2016. Defensively he is above-average at second base with soft hands and excellent footwork, with an above-average arm strong enough to make throws from deep in the hole at shortstop. His range is best suited for second base. The Future: Urias resembles 16-year big league vet Placido Polanco in terms of frame and skill set, and he has perennial .300-hitting ability to match. He will begin 2017 at Double-A.

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2016 Club AVG OBP SLG

Lake Elsinore (HiA) .330 .397 .440

El Paso (AAA) .444 .667 .778

7. Jacob Nix, rhp | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: Jan. 9, 1996. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Bradenton, Fla., 2015 (3rd round). Signed by: Chris Kelly. Background: The Astros drafted Nix in the fifth round out of Los Alamitos (Calif.) High in 2014 but failed to sign him after the debacle curtailed their bonus pool. Nix, a UCLA commit, instead went to postgrad IMG Academy in Florida and went to the Padres a year later in the third round. He signed for $900,000. Scouting Report: Long described as physical, athletic and projectable, Nix found a consistent, repeatable delivery in 2016 and saw his stuff take off at low Class A Fort Wayne in 2016. He recorded one of the highest average velocities in the Padres system with a 93-95 mph fastball that touched 97, and he held that velocity deep into his starts. His curveball shows improved depth thanks to a consistent release point and now projects to plus. It has 12-to-6 action and earned recognition as the best breaking pitch in the . Nix’s above-average changeup also began getting swings and misses in the bottom of the zone with his improved delivery. His control leapt forward as well. He cut his walk rate nearly in half from 2015 to 2016, highlighted by a midsummer stretch where he walked only one batter in six starts. The Future: Everything is trending up for Nix, who will begin 2017 at high Class A Lake Elsinore and projects as a quality mid-rotation starter.

2016 Club W L ERA G GS

Fort Wayne (LoA) 3 7 3.93 25 25

8. Michael Gettys, of |

32 image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: Oct. 22, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 203. Drafted: HS—Gainesville, Ga., 2014 (2nd round). Signed by: Andrew Salvo. Background: Gettys was an enigmatic talent in high school who posted off-the-charts measurables at showcases but often disappointed in games. The Padres gambled on his raw upside and drafted him 51st overall in 2014 and signed him for $1.3 million to forgo a Georgia commitment. Scouting Report: Gettys’ primary problem had been a lack of hitting instincts, pitch recognition and balance in the box, which led to high strikeout rates and poor quality contact in the early part of his career. He made major strides on those fronts in 2016, adding a back stretch to the start of his swing to improve his rhythm and timing, while also giving him a better look at incoming pitches. The result was a more athletic swing with less chasing and harder contact throughout the year. Center field is where Gettys really shines, using his plus speed and elite defensive instincts to track down fly balls in every direction, with double-plus arm strength to boot. His speed is limited out of the batter’s box but ticks up on the basepaths to make him a dangerous basestealing threat. The Future: Gettys is starting to turn his loud tools into baseball skills but needs to continue improving as a hitter to reach his everyday potential. He will jump to Double-A San Antonio in 2017.

2016 Club AVG OBP SLG

Fort Wayne (LoA) .304 .369 .416

Lake Elsinore (HiA) .306 .356 .468

9. Dinelson Lamet, rhp | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: July 18, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 187. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2014. Signed by: Randy Smith/Felix Feliz/Emenegildo Diaz/Jose Salado. Background: The Padres signed Lamet for $100,000 as a 21-year old and he has climbed their system rapidly. He rose through three levels in 2016 to finish the year at Triple-A El Paso. Scouting Report: Lamet possesses a strong, durable, athletic build, allowing him to repeat his delivery and hold his stuff deep into starts. His mid-90s fastball and upper-80s slider both

33 possess sharp, late movement and grade above-average to plus. He added an 85-88 mph changeup during 2016 that evaluators project to average. The addition of the change allowed Lamet to better neutralize lefthanded batters and make it through the order a third time. The result was he led the Padres system in wins (12) and strikeouts (158) while ranking second in innings (150) and ERA (3.00). Lamet’s control is fringe-average, but the overall quality of his stuff generates plenty of swings and misses and limits hard contact. The Future: Lamet can be a No. 4 or 5 starter with further changeup development or a high- leverage reliever if the pitch stagnates. He will begin 2017 at El Paso with a strong chance to join the Padres by midsummer.

2016 Club W L ERA G

Lake Elsinore (HiA) 7 1 2.35 12

San Antonio (AA) 5 7 3.39 14

El Paso (AAA) 0 2 4.22 2

10. Josh Naylor, 1b | image: http://www.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/bba_video_icon_red.png

Born: June 22, 1997. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 225. Drafted: HS—Mississauga, Ontario, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Steve Payne (Marlins). Background: The Marlins drafted Naylor 12th overall in 2015, making him the highest-drafted Canadian position player ever. He wowed during Futures Game batting practice in 2016 with long home runs at Petco Park, and three weeks later the Padres acquired him from the Marlins in a deal for Andrew Cashner. Scouting Report: Plus raw power is Naylor’s carrying tool and will have to be because he is a thick-bodied lefthanded batter limited to first base. He generates his power using a strong lower half and quick hands, creating elite bat speed to drive the ball with authority. Naylor is presently able to tap into his power on but has trouble with offspeed pitches, especially against lefthanders. He also makes contact at an above-average rate for a power hitter. Defensively he is prone to errors because his focus wavers, but in short bursts will show unexpected athleticism. Naylor faced questions about his maturity when he was drafted, and questions still linger after he injured Marlins minor league teammate Stone Garrett with a knife in what team officials described as a “prank gone bad.”

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The Future: Naylor will begin 2017 at high Class A Lake Elsinore as he tries to live up to his middle-of-the order potential.

2016 Club AVG OBP SLG

Greensboro (LoA) .269 .317 .430

Lake Elsinore (HiA) .252 .264 .353

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San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects Chat January 16, 2017 By Staff Report

Kyle Glaser: Hey there folks. We’ve got over 200 questions in the queue for this chat, so I won’t be able to get to them all, but I’ll try and answer as many as I can. Thanks and look forward to chatting

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys are likely to make the BA 100? Kyle Glaser: Give Frank credit. He always has the first question in the queue, and it’s always the same. He’s nothing if not consistent. The answer is three – Espinoza, Margot and Renfroe, but they’ll all be top 50, likely top 40. In the prospect game, it’s better to have three guys in the top 50 than five guys in the top 100 but only one of them top 50, so don’t stress the Padres won’t have as many top 100 guys as some other systems.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Was Chris Paddack close to making your list, and what did you think of his year overall, prior to sucumbing to surgery? Kyle Glaser: Chris Paddack would have been No. 7 if not for his Tommy John. That throws a serious wrench into him, especially since it means he’ll be out all of 2017 (he had the surgery in August) and remember that he missed the first six weeks of the season with biceps tendonitis too. His ceiling is high, but his risk is extreme. That risk because of his injuries ultimately knocked him out of the 10.

Grant (NYC): What does Eric Lauer project as ‐ a midrotation SP possibly, or are you not as optimistic? Kyle Glaser: Lauer as of right now projects as a pure No. 5 starter. Scouts all around described him as “fine” and his stuff “good but nothing special”. Every one I spoke with penciled him in as a No. 5. A safe No. 5, but a No. 5 nonetheless. That said, he had pitched a long college season and has some room to grow, so there is a chance the stuff ticks up a bit and he becomes more. For now though, a pure No. 5 is what he profiles as

Danny (San Diego, ca): Which position fits Hudson Potts best ‐ SS or 3B? Do you think the Padres made a wise selection drafting him where they did? Kyle Glaser: 3B. The Padres already acknowledge that. He’s a pure 3B moving forward. A lot of scouts outside the Padres org praised them for the pick after seeing Potts in rookie ball and short season. He was considered an overdraft at draft time, but most of the early reviews on him are that the Padres were right on taking him where they did.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): About how many years do you believe Jorge Ona will need in the minors, if all goes well? Which outfield position suits him best? Kyle Glaser: At least three. Keep in mind by the time opening day 2017 comes around, he will not have played consistent game action since summer 2014. He sat a year for Industriales in Cuba, barely playing, then left the country and spent a year working out, and then signed with the Padres and has been doing academy/instructs work. He has a lot of rust and a lot of catching up to do. He’s a left fielder long term as long as he’s with the Padres. Doesn’t move well enough to play RF at Petco.

Sam (San Francisco, CA): What can you tell us about Reggie Lawson, including his ceiling/floor? Kyle Glaser: Lawson has the look that scouts drool over, but he’s raw even by HS pitcher standards. Fastball command, breaking ball velocity, third pitch development, consistency of mechanics, all are very, very raw, so much so he’s a ways behind other HS pitchers from his class, such as Mason Thompson. It’s so raw, his floor is he never gets out of rookie ball/short 36 season if he doesn’t improve. His ceiling? Well, again, we don’t know it because it’s all so raw. He’s a 5 year project.

Eric (Dallas, TX): Could we see Morejon at the back of the top 100 list next month, or is he still too "raw" for that to happen? Kyle Glaser: It probably won’t happen because it’s simply all guesswork with him at this point. Other guys in the back end top 100 consideration will be guys who have shown they can perform in pro ball against other elite professional talents. Morejon is a guy we think can, but we don’t have that track record yet. He’s likely going to have to wait.

Wayne (San Diego, CA): Please reassure us Buddy Reed won't be the second coming of Donavan Tate. Please? Where will he reside in the Handbook? Kyle Glaser: He isn’t the second coming of Donovan Tate because he plays hard, has a great head on his shoulders, is a leader in the clubhouse and has a great work ethic…none of which will ever be said about Donovan Tate. At the same time, very, very few believe Buddy Reed can hit or will ever hit, so the burden is on him to show he can. As to where he lands in the Handbook, it comes out shortly and you can see for yourself there.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): How confident are you that Tatis Jr. can remain at short in the coming years? Kyle Glaser: Reasonably optimistic. You watch him play there and it’s apparent he can. I was surprised at just how lithe and smooth he is over there. It’s the real deal. It’s a false myth that guys of a certain height don’t play SS. Tatis is 6-3 and likely to stay about there now that he’s 18. Same height as Troy Tulowitzki, shorter than Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, and only one inch taller Brandon Crawford and Andrelton Simmons. Obviously if he packs on 30 pounds of bad weight it’s a different story, but it’s apparent when you see him he has all the skills needed to stick there.

Harry (Brownsville, TX): Did Austin Smith's stock fall in your opinion? Not a fan of all those BB's, but is he likely to remain a starter? Kyle Glaser: His stock cratered, and that’s in everyone’ s opinion. This past season Smith showed himself to be a one-pitch pitcher whose one pitch is a 93-95 mph fastball he can’t control. Plus questions about his fitness, makeup and overall desire to improve…forget starter/reliever profile, he has a lot of work to do just to show he’ll ever pitch above A-ball. He doesn’t use his offspeed pitches enough, and when he does they’re not very good, and his fastball is either all over the place or right over the plate where a hitter can crush it. He needs to rebuild a lot of things. We’ll see if he does it.

Ray Kroc (San Deigo): Where do you think the following youngsters fit in, were they considered for the top 10? Do they fall among 11‐15? Hudson Potts, Luis Almanzar, Fernando Tatis Jr. Thanks Ray Kyle Glaser: None of them received much top 10 consideration, not with so many performers with high ceilings in full-season ball. That said, they’re all in the 11-20 range and have a reasonable chance to move into the top 10 next year.

Chris (San Diego): Where does an Eguy Rosario fit in the Padres system? Kyle Glaser: As an intriguing guy to keep an eye on. He’d be 20-30 in many other systems, got squeezed out by the depth of this one. Still, has some skills to like and is worth watching

Chris (San Diego): How would you rate the Padres farm system? Do we have the deepest farm system right now? Kyle Glaser: It’s one of the top 10 in the game, and yes it is the deepest. What I mean by that is the Padres No. 8 prospect is fairly middle of the pack among other teams No. 8 prospects, but they’re No. 17 prospect is probably the best No. 17 prospect of any other system and the guys 37 who missed the cut as 31-35 would have been Top 20 guys in a lot of other systems. Outside of Margot, Renfroe and maybe Lamet, there isn’t much in terms of developed, impact talent ready to go, which keeps them from being an upper, upper tier system. At the same time, there are lots of really talented guys in the low minors, and at least a few of them should turn into something. There’s strength in numbers, and the Padres have that more than probably any other system.

Chris (San Diego): Are there are now International Free Agents that the Padres can add to their haul before the new CBA takes effect? Kyle Glaser: Yes, the international signing window remains open until June 15, so the Padres still have six more months to sign international players as part of this year’s class.

Chris (San Diego): Who are a couple sleeper prospects that you think could be impact prospects in a few years? Kyle Glaser: Tirso Ornelas. He wasn’t as well known as Almanzar, Arias, Rosario, Morejon, Ona, etc in this year’s international signing haul, but multiple scouts who saw him in instructs brought him up unprompted as a guy who really impressed them, even more than some of the aforementioned players. Big strong power hitting lefty, definitely a guy to keep tabs on.

Chris (San Diego): Do you think Javier Guerra or Ruddy Giron can get their careers back on track? Kyle Glaser: Sure. Depends how hard they’re willing to work, take to coaching and apply what they’ve learned in game situations. They both are skilled players who visibly have things to work on, and if they address them there’s no reason they can’t progress.

Chris (Biloxi): Which pitcher from the 2016 draft will make it to the majors first? Kyle Glaser: I do think it will be Quantrill. All reports are he’s healthy, and he’s simply better than Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi, the two other guys you’d consider for this. Lake Bachar is one to watch though. He could move quickly as a reliever.

Chris (Biloxi): What would you expect from the Padres focus on in the 2017 draft? Kyle Glaser: Drafting the best players available. No reason to overthink this folks. The Padres will grab talent wherever they can get it, at any position, from any level of schooling. Best available player, that’s what they’ll take.

Chris (Biloxi): What type of career do you expect from Phil Maton? Kyle Glaser: Really good 7th-8th inning guy for a long time. Wouldn’t be surprised if he follows a similar career arc to another former Padres relief prospect, Brad Brach.

What the heck is going on here? (Rooting for a much better team.): Ok, so the Friars let Tyson Ross walk but reward Javier Guerra with a spot on the 40 man after an abysmal season. Do you see a rebound for Guerra in your crystal ball and if so is there a path for him to the majors? Kyle Glaser: Honestly, it’s a complete toss up with Guerra. He has so much work to do mechanically and mentally as a hitter, and so much to do with his focus and effort level at shortstop, trying to predict whether he bounces back or not is foolish without seeing exactly what work he is putting in this offseason. If he put in the work, sure. If he didn’t, no. It’s that simple.

Chris (Biloxi): What do the Padres do with the #3 pick in the draft? Kyle Glaser: They take the best player available. Maybe that’s Jeren Kendell. Maybe that’s Royce Lewis. Maybe that’s Alex Faedo. Maybe that’s someone who explodes this year we aren’t focusing to hard on yet. We’ll see.

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Ano Egroj (Not sure, still learning my way around): Margot and Renfroe are awesome, but come on I hear this Ona guy is the next . Too little data to include him in the top 10? I have seven million friends that say he at least deserves consideration. Kyle Glaser: Uh no. Not even close. Ona is a slugger only whose swing looked horrible in the Padres futures game. Think more Dayan Viciedo – 25 HR sure, but hitting .250 with a .725 OPS while being a liability in the corner OF, and that’s if he gets his swing right. There is hope how bad he looked against live pitching in game situations was rust, it very well may have been, but a Gold Glove winning CF and Hall of Famer with a career .318 AVG like Puckett he is not in any way, shape or form.

Chris (Chula Vista): What can the Padres do to keep adding to the farm system? Kyle Glaser: Just keep adding talent. They are weaker at the upper levels than optimal, but that should be rectified by the group moving from HiA to AA this year. The draft, trades, international, you always want to keep adding talent to your organization through any means, no matter the position.

Chris (Chula Vista): Does Lamet really stay a SP or can he become a dominant reliever? Which would provide more value? Kyle Glaser: He stays an SP as long as his changeup comes along, which is happening. There’s obviously more value in starting, so he’ll stay there unless the changeup stalls.

Chris (Chula Vista): Does the Padres system have any prospects that could become an Andrew Miller super reliever? Kyle Glaser: No. Andrew Miller was the sixth overall pick in his draft and one of the most decorated HS and college pitchers ever. People need to stop thinking every organization has one of him. They don’t. The closest equivalent would be if Cal Quantrill reaches the majors as a starter, flops, and emerges as a dominant reliever six years and three teams later. That’s not a situation the Padres, or anyone, is hoping for.

Chris (Chula Vista): What sort of potential does Yimmi Brasoban have? Any word on his recovery? Kyle Glaser: He has the potential to be a pretty good middle/borderline setup reliever, a nice guy to have in your bullpen. And nothing beyond that his injection took place and they’ll monitor his recovery as it moves forward. Fairly standard.

Chris (San Diego): How many of the Rule V draft picks stick through Spring Training? End of the season? Kyle Glaser: 2 and 1.

Terrence (Oakland): With most of the Pasted pitching staff in the low minors and a few years away, what do you think of the pasted using a modified pitching rotation ( having starters pitch 3‐5 innings) as a way to bring younger pitchers along sooner. Kyle Glaser: That’s a poor way to develop starting pitchers and something they won’t do, especially as they climb to higher levels. Being a starting pitcher in the majors means being able to get through 6-plus innings and a batting order 2-3 times. If you can’t do that, you’re hurting your team.

Andrew (Los Angeles): Who has more upside between Reggie Lawson and Mason Thompson? Kyle Glaser: Thompson. Better command, better feel for his breaking pitches.

Chris (San Diego): Will any of the 2016 draft picks make their major league debut this season? Kyle Glaser: No

Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): Hello, with the Padres system being one of, if not the deepest in the game, would they be considered a top 5 or top 10 system? Thank you. 39

Kyle Glaser: There’s some debate as to whether they are top 5, but no debate they’re top 10. Firmly in the top 10

Andrew (Los Angeles): How close was Fernando Tatis Jr to making the list? Kyle Glaser: Not all that close. He’s very talented and someone easy to like, but he’s also an 18-year old with 44 ABs above Rookie ball and a lot of scouts questioning his ability to hit a breaking ball. He’d be top 10 in some other systems, but not in this one with so many legit prospects who also performed in full season ball. That said, with a good year in 2017 and the graduations of a few guys in the top 10, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tatis in the top 10 next year.

Andrew (Los Angeles): This has to be a top 3 system right? Seems like the prospects ommitted like Tatis, Lauer, Paddack, Potts, Ona, Thompson, Lawson, Allen, etc could rival other systems' top 10. Kyle Glaser: Goes back to what I said in an earlier answer about this being the deepest system, but not the best. Teams like the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees all have 8-10 guys who are legit prime prospects who have succeeded at Double-A or above, which counts for more than having 20 guys who are really good but are all LoA or lower. It’s a bit of sliding scale when you take risk into account.

Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): If not for Paddack's injury, would he have made the top 10? Kyle Glaser: As discussed earlier, yes. He’d be right in at No. 7-8. His current injury complicates matters, no doubt

DR (MD): You project Fernando Tatis Jr to be a MLB shortstop at age 21, but he isn't in the top 10? Kyle Glaser: Glad you caught that. It’s more of a case of the current state of the Padres SS group. While there is a bunch of them, they’re all way young, way raw, and frankly it’s likely none of them will be ready by 2020. The Padres have a very serious problem, which is they not only don’t have a shortstop for 2017, they likely don’t have one for 2018, 2019 or 2020 either. There’s going to need to be a trade. And by the way, the folks in the Padres front office openly acknowledge this and say they’re trying to find a solution. But yes, Tatis was chosen simply as the best of a very unlikely group of options, even though he himself is unlikely to be their starting SS in 2020, for all his considerable talents

Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): With the Padres spending upwards of $60M in the International market and only one of those players showing up in their top 10, was it money well spent? That being said, I hope MLB does not drag their feet on Luis Robert's availability so the Padres at least have a chance to sign him before their 2 year punishment begins. Kyle Glaser: We won’t know if its money well spent for 2-3 years. That’s the nature of the game with signing 16 year old international players. There was a strong consensus on Morejon, a varying (but overall not as good) consensus on Ona, and a bunch of “who knows” on the other guys, which is simply a function of their age. At the same time, don’t read too much into the international guys not being in the top 10. If you’re top 10 is just a bunch of recently signed 16- 17 year olds in Rookie ball, you’re screwed. Advanced, developed talent counts way, way more than raw talent, and the Padres will (and should) gladly take the group of guys in their 10 than having the top 10 be guys 6-7 years away.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Did ex‐Oriole farmhand Jean Cosme make Prospect Handbook this year? Kyle Glaser: He received consideration but ultimately didn’t, simply as a function of how deep this system is. However, he’s absolutely showing something and should not be discounted in the future.

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Chris (San Diego): Aside from Renfroe who are some interesting power prospects in the system? Kyle Glaser: Ona is the most interesting of the next group far and away, because he’s absolutely got plus raw power, no one argues that. Simply going to be a matter of his swing and it not being what he showed in the Padres Futures game…that will determine whether he becomes a power-hitting big leaguer or the next Kalian Sams, another big, crazy strong guy with international decorations who never gets out of Double-A.

BMaz (Southwest Detroit): Where does this system fall? Top half or bottom half of MLB? It seems to be somewhere in the middle. Kyle Glaser: It’s a top 10 system. It’s kind of funny. Padres fans are a little overly high on it, while non-Padres fans seem too low on it. It’s not top 3, it’s arguable at 4-5, but there’s no legitimate argument it’s lower than 10.

Wayne (Saskatchewan): Hunter Renfroe at 3? You mean the guy who walks less than paraplegics? I thought you said this system was good? Kyle Glaser: You mean the guy who projects to hit .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI while playing borderline gold glove defense in RF? Yeah, that’s a top 3 prospect in any system system and a top 50 prospect in baseball. Yes the walks are low, but Adam Jones is an example of a guy who never walks but still punishes and is an impact player. Truthfully, the offensive line Matt Kemp put up last year – .268/.304/.499, 35 HR, 108 RBI, 36 BB, 156 K – wouldn’t be out of line with Renfroe. The big difference being, Renfroe puts those up while playing sterling defense, unlike Kemp, which makes him an impact player on both sides of the ball, even with high Ks and low walks.

Matthew (San Diego): Has San Diego ever had this many great prospects before ? Also they have a nice mix of position players and pitching to go with it, did you envision when Preller took over this is the route he would take instead of all the trades? Great work Kyle ! Kyle Glaser: Well, in 2014 they were 6th in the BA organizational talent rankings and that was before they added Trea Turner in that 2014 draft. (Michael Gettys and Nick Torres too). So yes, they have had this much talent in their system before, and recently, but enough has been said and written about what transpired. In terms of what was envisioned, it’s really just a function of Preller and Co. reacting to what happened. If Kemp and Shields and Norris and Co. performed consistently and Ross and Cashner didn’t have their troubles, etc, they’d all still be in Padres uniforms because the team would have been winning (same could probably be said for Kimbrel, Benoit, Gyorko, etc). But it didn’t happen, so they made the deals they felt necessary. A lot of baseball is reacting to the situation on the ground, and clearly this regime made the call to change course and cash in on prospects when the “go-for-it” didn’t pan out. And thanks, appreciate the kind words

Justin (Tucson): What is the scouting report on Jorge Ona? And how close was he to the top 10? Kyle Glaser: Scouting report was legit power potential, troublingly long swing in game situations, so-so athleticism and subpar runner. It’s a pure corner profile, likely LF, but the most important thing is the bat. He was in the initial top 10 until we got more and more reports and on the swing and saw it for ourselves, which dropped him. Again though, it may have been rust with timing and mechanics after such a long layoff, which is why we didn’t drop him too far. It’ll be big to see what his swing looks like when 2017 opens.

Mickey (SD): Is this a top 5 org now? Kyle Glaser: It’s in the conversation. Our org talent rankings will be out shortly and you can see where they land then.

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Reggie (Chicago): How soon will we regret trading Tatis Jr.? I have heard he had an outstanding instructional league with the Padres...Is that a big coup for their scouting group outside of having to eat some Shields money? Kyle Glaser: That already looks like a trade to regret. Tatis is very, very, very good, just has to shore up some things and prove it at higher levels. Never a given, but all signs are pointing to the White Sox being hosed on that one, particularly given how bad Shields has been in Chicago. (Which, by the way, never made sense the Sox would want him given his massive HR problems he was having in SD. Didn’t take a genius to figure out they were going to be even worse in US Cellular, I guess Guaranteed Rate now, Field)

Tom (Victor Valley): What can you tell us about Reggie Lawson and Mason Thompson? Where these two of the better steals of the draft? Kyle Glaser: Thompson more so than Lawson. Solid low-to-mid 90s velo on a FB he can spot, two promising breaking pitches, if not for his Tommy John many felt he was first-round material. Lawson is way, way behind in terms of the rawness of his skillset. He’s a pure lottery ticket who will need a lot more time to develop.

Jake (South Carolina): Do do think Margot is ready to make the team out of the opening day ? Kyle Glaser: Yes. As long as he does what he should do in spring training, he’ll win a job.

Bradley (San Diego, CA): Luis Urias is still only 19. I'm assuming he still might physically mature a little more over the next couple years. If his arm strength improves, does he have the range and glove work to play a good shortstop? Kyle Glaser: He can play SS in small spurts, fill in here and there, but he simply doesn’t have the lateral range to play SS for 150 games a year. That won’t change much, especially as he fills out and matures a little more. He’s really a pure 2B, who can cover you at SS in a pinch.

Chris (Northern Ca): Where would you rank Fernando Tatis Jr on a top 30 list? Can he sit at SS? Kyle Glaser: He’s not top 10 yet, but he’s in the next 11-20 group and has potential to be top 10 this time next year. And yes, as discussed in an earlier answer above.

Brandon (Chula Vista): Taking out Morejon, who will rise as the best of the J2 signings? Kyle Glaser: Luis Almanzar. Can hit, can play SS or 3B, has a lot of the tools needed to succeed, especially as an advanced hitter for his age.

Bradley (San Diego, CA): The Padres seem to have some intriguing athletes in their system. I particularly am thinking of Michael Gettys and Buddy Reed. Do you think either or both will hit enough to be an everyday regular at the big‐league level? Gettys adjusted accordingly and performed very well this past season. Kyle Glaser: There is a sense Gettys can be an everyday regular as a high ISO guy (low AVG, high SLG) with a lot of doubles. Reed there really isn’t. He doesn’t hit, has never really hit, and few think he will ever hit. Hitting .262 as an upperclassmen and then .254 with no HR in your pro debut is not a good way to change that perception. Burden is on him to change that. He can run and play D, but unless he hits that makes him an org guy

Jordon Wildt (Indiana University): Where is Espinoza his development? How sure are people about him meeting his high expectations? Thanks! Kyle Glaser: He’s where most of the best 18 year old pro pitching prospects are, if not slightly ahead. Wrapped up low A, made strides on his third pitch, learning the finer points of pitch sequencing and how to attack hitters. He’s just fine, right where he needs to be

Joel Thompson (Temecula, CA): Josh Naylor is 19 year old that played in the futures game.... How is he ranked below Gettys? Kyle Glaser: He played in the Futures Game because the Marlins needed a representative from

42 their sorry system. He’s got talent, but as a power-driven 1B only guy who didn’t hit as well as he should have in two hitter-friendly environments (Greensboro and the Cal League). He’s not going to rank ahead of a guy who performed better at the same levels (LoA and then HiA) offensively while also showing game-changing ability defensively and on the basepaths. Naylor is still a top 10 prospect in a top 10 system, so it’s not like he’s a non-prospect. Gettys is just better, both in the eyes of scouts and Padres in-house guys who saw them play side-by-side and on paper.

Bradley (San Diego, CA): Any suggestions for the Padres rookies of where to go for good burritos or tacos? Have you been to Vaqueros in Lemon Grove? A little bit of a sketch area, but so good. Kyle Glaser: Haven’t been there, might have to check it out now though.Thanks for the rec. I’m a North County guy, so Rico’s in Encinitas and Filiberto’s near Moonlight would be my first two spots I’d suggest.

Ethan (San Diego): Just curious ‐ in Padres 2020 starting rotation projection ‐ there is no mention of Morejon. Any reason why? Kyle Glaser: He won’t be ready by then. 18-year olds about to begin in extended spring/Rookie ball (as the Padres told me he would this year) aren’t three years from the majors. He’ll need more time.

Tim (Boston): What can you tell us about Guerra? Is he still the SS of the future in SD? Kyle Glaser: Not right now. He’s got to rebuild his entire offensive approach. Swing mechanics, plate discipline, pitch recognition, it’s all in need of a complete overhaul. If he does, then the conversation opens up again.

Robert White (Phoenix, AZ): Seems to me that you are missing a large crop of players that should be ahead of some of these guys? You are missing a lot of young prospects that many think will be top 100 prospects by next year. (Recent Drafts and J2 signees) I know they are young, but these guys are better prospects than half of your top 10... do you have any thoughts on why some of these players got left out? Kyle Glaser: Because they’re pure projection. It’s easy to dream on guys who have dominated amateur competition their whole lives and before their warts get exposed in pro ball. The entire point of prospect rankings, etc, is to find the guys who will get to the majors and have an impact on your club. The guy throwing 96 getting Triple-A hitters out (Lamet) is infinitely more likely to have major league impact than the 16-year old toolsy young SS who got a big bonus. As far as Lauer, Ona, and some others who have a little more track record, the scouting reports on them by folks who do this for a living were consistently worse than the reports on Gettys, Nix, etc, who let’s not forget were high draft picks themselves. Weighing risk vs. ceiling is a huge part of rankings (JJ Cooper’s most recent Ask BA addressed this pretty well actually), and ultimately the likelihood of guys reaching their ceiling is a lot stronger for the guys with a track record of performance than the pure projection guys.

Sean Ballard (Sacramento, CA): Seems to me alot of young, and promising prospects that many scouts/publications are drooling over have been left off your list. Do you not have much information on them? Kyle Glaser: In a related answer, most of them do find spots in the top 30, so it’s not like they were ignored. Again, being a top 15-20 prospect in one of baseball’s better systems in nothing to be ashamed about, and is frankly equivalent in some cases to being a No. 4-5 prospect in a weaker system. These are good players with very bright possible futures ahead of them.

David (Bakersfield, CA): The real excitement seems to be at the lower levels of this organization. Where would these 15 young prospects rank in comparison with another organizations top 15? 1. Fernando Tatis Jr 2. Mason Thompson 3. Jorge Ona 4. Reggie Lawson

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5. Hudson Potts 6. Luis Almanzar 7. Gabriel Arias 8. Eric Lauer 9. Jeison Rosario 10. Ronald Bolanos 11. Michel Baez 12. Buddy Reed 13. Javier Guerra 14. Rudy Giron 15. Andres Munoz Kyle Glaser: Goes back to the depth discussion. Frankly, that’s a better top 15 than what the Angels, Marlins and Diamondbacks put out there, as well as a few others. Most of those guys are on the Padres top 30, and help make it baseball’s deepest system.

David Smith (Austin, TX): No Potts, Thompson or Lawson? Kyle Glaser: Again, goes back to depth of the system and the number of legit, really good prospects who performed in full-season ball. Potts and Thompson in particular I wouldn’t be surprised to see in the top 10 next year if they do the same.

Charles (Escondido): What is the expected ETA for LHP Adrian Morejon and are the reports of him throwing 93‐96 accurate? Kyle Glaser: ETA is 2021 and he’s been mostly 91-94, touching 96. There’s room for growth so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s consistently 93-96 here shortly.

Michael Harding (Lovett, TX): Keep hearing great things about Tatis Jr. and all of the new J2 shortstops. You have any information on those players? Thanks Kyle! Kyle Glaser: Tatis is legit, no two ways about it. Almanzar as an offensive player and Arias as a defender have looked very good since joining the organization. There’s a lot of good young SS’s in this system, they’re just all kind of far away. Some will inevitably drop off, but that’s the beauty of strength in numbers.

Raul (Ensenada, MX): Happy with all mexican signees. Luis Urias, Andres Munoz and young Tirso Ornelas. Andres Munoz throwing 100mph as a 17 year old in the AZL last year! Kyle Glaser: Glad you caught this. The Cubs picked up on it a few years ago that teams weren’t picking up talent out of Mexico like they used too and really bared down. The Padres have found gems in all three of those guys. You mention Munoz and he’s the guy third on the Mexican pecking order in the system, which is really saying something. A nice crop of talent no doubt the Padres have picked up from their neighbors to the south.

John (Chula Vista): Where does this farm system rank? Top 5? Top 3? With another solid draft class, I could see this farm being #1 a year from now. Thoughts? Kyle Glaser: What would elevate it to No. 1 more than anything would be a lot of the guys already in there just developing as planned and performing. If Urias, Gettys, Naylor rake in Double-A, if Espinoza, Nix, Allen and co dominate the Cal League, if Quantrill, Lauer, Potts, Tatis, Ona come and turn Fort Wayne into a power before advancing quickly, then that would go a long way towards making the Padres a contender for No. 1. They all have the skills to do it, now they just have to do it. Again, this is a performance-based business, and if they perform they’ll be rewarded.

Cole (Atlanta): The Padres acquired a lot of young position players this past year. Who stands out the most among this group (Almanzar, Arias, Potts, Rosario, Tatis, others?) and were they close to appearing on the top 10 list? Kyle Glaser: Potts was closest to top 10 consideration. Tatis is easy to fall in love with, but as our AZL top 20 prospects list noted, it was pretty consensus among scouts that Potts was the better pro prospect because of his bat. At the same time, they’re close, and the J2 class has multiple guys in the top 30 as well.

Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): I was kind of surprised to see both Nix and Lamet in the top 10 and no sign of Eric Lauer. Is his ceiling as a mid to back end starter the reason for this or do you folks see big things in the future for Nix and Lamet? Kyle Glaser: Lauer was initially in my top 10 and Nix and Lamet just on the outside, but the more and more scouts I spoke with and the more and more personnel folks even inside the Padres org came in, it was clear Nix and Lamet had shown more and done more to convince 44 folks they were going to have an impact in the majors than Lauer. Lot of people liked Lauer, it was just as a pure No. 5 starter, not even as a No. 4. Nix kept getting written up as a No. 3 and Lamet as a No. 4. At the end of the day, that swung it pretty convincingly. At the same time, Lauer is still a legit SP prospect, so I wouldn’t get to concerned about him being just outside the top 10

Michel (Montreal): Hi, What are your thoughts on Mason Thompson ? Kyle Glaser: Really bright future as long as he stays healthy. Good low-mid 90s FB, potential for two plus offspeed pitches, just needs to strengthen up and show he can hold up for 100, and eventually 150-200 innings.

Adam (Las Vegas): Has Luis Almanzar already fallen behind Gabriel Arias in terms of prospect status? Kyle Glaser: Only in the sense that Arias is seen as a more sure bet to stick at SS, which elevates him in the eyes of some. That said, Almanzar is still an excellent prospect, and I wouldn’t read too much into 30-40 instructs ABs as 16-year olds in terms of trying to definitively state one has surpassed the other.

Adam (Las Vegas): Should we be concerned that Austin Smith, the first draft pick of AJ Preller's regime, has already found himself destined to be a reliever? Kyle Glaser: No. GMs and scouting departments miss on draft picks. It happens. Sometimes in year one, sometimes in year four, it’s only a concern if it keeps happening over and over and over again. And for whatever disappointment Smith’s development has been, Jacob Nix – their next pick – has made up for it.

Adam (Las Vegas): Does Joey Lucchessi have a chance to start? Kyle Glaser: Yes. Three potential above average pitches and elite command from the left side. Yeah, that’s a starter all the way

Adam (Las Vegas): Is Eric Lauer a 3 or a 5 down the road? Kyle Glaser: Pure 5 based on what he showed in his pro debut. That said, he was coming off a long college season so maybe the stuff ticks up with a full offseason of rest and a pro workout regimen. We’ll see how it all looks this year.

Philip (San Diego): Couple questions: Did Logan Allen get top 10 consideration? Could Mason Thompson shoot up the list (assuming he's in top 30) showing his potential and staying healthy this year? Would Paddack have made the list if not for TJ? Hear any reports on Jeisson Rosario (sp?), seems like he was a pleasant surprise in instructs. Kyle Glaser: Allen did not, simply again because of the depth of the system and the fact he missed so much time with elbow soreness. Thompson very likely could shoot up, yes, and Paddack is top 10 if not for TJ. Reports on Rosario were they liked the speed and defense and feel to hit, but he’s physically very weak right now and going to have to make major gains in that department. jon camaney (san diego): As a lifelong Padres fan who has watched them squander most of their draft picks, especially first round, I cannot help but to be skeptical about Quantrill being so high on their list. His pro career has not been even good from what I see. Why would he be so highly rated? Wouldn't Eric Lauer be a better pick at this time? Kyle Glaser: Skepticism is generally smart when it comes to post Tommy John picks. Quantrill was brilliant in the Northwest League (1.93 ERA, 28 K/2 BB) after getting his feet wet in the AZL, and I wouldn’t read too much into 4.2 innings at Ft Wayne, no matter how good or bad they are. The stuff is there, the poise is there, the moxie is there, just needs to firm up his command (always the last thing to come back from TJ) and if he does that he’ll be fine. And no, Lauer doesn’t have anywhere near the stuff Quantrill does

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Roy (Citrus Heights, CA): Do you ever see Michael Gettys translating his athletic tools into a legitimate MLB talent? Kyle Glaser: Yes. He showed he has the ability to make adjustments and changes this year and flashed game-changing ability at the plate, in the outfield, and on the basepaths, handling a promotion to a tougher league especially well. He needs to continue progressing in the box first and foremost, but he’s turning his tools into skills and you’re starting to see what he can do, which is be a multi-faceted threat.

Allen (IL): How far off the list was Asuaje? Can he carve out a career as a bat first utility type? Kyle Glaser: He’s in the 11-20 group, and yes that is exactly what he will be.

Bjorn (Seattle, WA): Where would International signee Luis Almanzar rank on this list and what kind of player do you think he could become? Kyle Glaser: He’s in the 11-20 range, and the potential is a bat-first third baseman that hits for power and average. Some think he can stay at SS, but most I’ve spoken with think he moves to third. Still, it’ll be his bat that carries him.

Sergio (Chula Vista, CA): Do you see Padres giving Jose Castillo giving him another shot as a starter or is he best used in the 7th or 8th inning reliever role? Kyle Glaser: He’s not going to outdo or be better than most of the SP prospects they have, so his best (only) shot is as a reliever.

Glint (San Diego): Is Fernando Tatis Jr the highest ceiling non pitcher we have in this system? If so what exactly do you see as his ceiling, if it's not him who is it and same 2nd question? Kyle Glaser: No. Margot has a higher ceiling because of his feel for the strike zone and unquestioned defensive excellence in CF. Tatis’ ceiling is equal to that of Renfroe, Urias and others – a first-division, really good everyday player.

Alex (San Diego): Trade 1, keep 2: Jankowski, Dickerson, Margot Kyle Glaser: You trade Margot if you get an advanced stud SS prospect in return, like Amed Rosario, Willy Adames, or Ozzie Albies. I don’t see the Mets, Rays or Braves making that trade though, so you keep all three, add Renfroe in RF, and you’ve got a nice balance of L/R, power and speed in your OF that gives you a lot of options. You can win moving forward with that outfield.

Lila (San Diego): 5 years from now how many "aces" are in our rotation? Am I wrong that we have a lot of arms that could be decent but no elite arm? (besides Espinoza) Kyle Glaser: Quantrill and Morejon could be elite arms, but there is a lot of risk with both given Quantrill’s injury history and Morejon’s youth. There is frontline potential with those two if they stay healthy and develop without too many hiccups.

Evin (Boston): Carlos Asuaje noticeably absent from the top 10. Where does he rank within the system? Is he just a utility infielder? Kyle Glaser: He’s in the 11-20 range. And yes. One scout comped him to Tommy La Stella as a valuable, bat first utility man. La Stella hit .270 with a .357 OBP in part-time duty last year for a championship team, which isn’t sexy but is definitely something to be glad to have, especially in the National League. Asuaje will be a solid big leaguer who ends up having a career longer than a lot of the high upside but pure projection guys in the system, and does rank fairly well in a deep system.

Zach (Wisc.): What are your thoughts about Lake Bachar? Kyle Glaser: Really interesting guy with a great backstory. Live arm and a reliever ultimately I think, but a good one who could move fast. 46

Loren (La Jolla, CA): Do you see Quantrill and Lauer in the majors next year considering how absolutely atrocious the Padres upper level minors are for SP? If the new core of Hedges‐ Renfroe‐Margot‐Myers‐Jankowski are good enough to win, will the Padres almost be forced to bring people up? Kyle Glaser: No. The Padres won’t be winning, or close to winning, at all in 2017, so there’s no reason to rush them. Even if by some miracle they do win more than expected, they aren’t going to rush those guys just for the sake of a surprise season. You’ll see Lamet, Walker Lockett, Michael Kelly and others well before you see those two as SP reinforcements.

Andy (Here): So I've read reports that Quantrill might've gone 1‐1 in draft if had chance to do it over, does this speak to the strong talent of the 3 above him on the ranking, or rather the lack of a true 1‐1 talent in the 16 draft? Thanks! Kyle Glaser: Based on my discussions with the draft guys here, it’s pure hyperbole that Quantrill would have gone 1-1 in any scenario. Senzel, Puk, Pint all would have gone ahead of him in any scenario. And keep in mind, even if he was 1-1, that makes him the top pick of his year, not the top player in an entire system with guys who were high picks themselves in their years. Keep in mind, this years No. 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 picks were all not No. 1 in their systems. He is a strong talent, as are the three guys ahead of him, and that’s independent of any draft class depth situation

Seanto (St. Paul, MN): I was pretty pumped about Logan Allen, but his K rate dropped in A ball. What do the Padres think about him long term? Any chance he makes it as a starter? Kyle Glaser: He’s a starter all the way. Just has to stay healthy, which he didn’t with persistent elbow soreness this year. If that clears up, no reason he can’t fill the No. 4 or 5 starter role.

Sam (Chicago): Hi, thanks for doing the chat. At what point do you see Espinoza becoming a regular part of the San Diego rotation ? Is he likely to be one of the team leaders when the international players they signed this past year have a chance of paying returns in the majors ? Kyle Glaser: Hey there, my pleasure. I see Espinoza getting the call midway thru 2018 and becoming a rotation regular in 2019. He has the personality and makeup to be a team leader for all players, regardless of nationality, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take on that role

Max D. (San Diego): From a fellow RSF little league alum... would you be surprised if Chris Paddack was in the Padres top 10 next year? Even though he's injured I'm shocked he didn't make it this year (over Nix maybe?) Kyle Glaser: Haha hey there Max, long time no talk. And Paddack probably won’t be in the top 10 next year simply because he is scheduled to miss all of 2017 (he had his surgery only in August) so that’ll keep his stock fairly even while other guys will raise theirs. If he was healthy, he would have ranked No. 7 over Nix, but alas, it didn’t happen. When he comes back in 2018, that’s when we’ll see what he’s got. If it all returns, he’ll be a slam dunk top 10 guy then.

Matt (Denver): BA's projected lineup for the Padres in 2020 includes Michael Gettys. His numbers certainly showed improvement this past year. Does he truly profile as a legit everyday regular at this point? Given his athletic ability but sometimes, shall we say, inconsistent approach at the plate, is he looking like more of a 4th outfielder? Kyle Glaser: The strides he took to turn his athletic ability into actual baseball skills this year showed he can get to the point of being an everyday regular. Someone who hits 7th in a lineup, plays great D with a high ISO and a fair bit of doubles and steals, something like that. That’s said, he’s still very risky and the optimism is based solely on what he showed this year. He could just as easily slide back into his bad habits and flame out in AA. At the same time, he showed definitively it’s in there for him to become a big league regular this past year, and we’ll see how much he can further tap into it.

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John (Cincinnati): Thanks for the chat. How close was Eric Lauer to making the top 10? How does he project long term? Kyle Glaser: He was in the discussion for the No. 10 spot, but again it was something where the scouting reports we consistently got weren’t quite enough to put him in there. With some graduations to come in Renfroe, Margot and possibly Lamet, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him Top 10 next year

Adam (Las Vegas): Is Franchy Cordero more valuable to the Padres on the field or in a trade? Kyle Glaser: The field given his ability to play CF and LF, steal bases, hit for some pop and make enough contact to get use out of it. He’s still only 22 as well. If Travis Jankowski (who has a higher trade value) eventually gets moved, I feel better making that move knowing Cordero can come up and fill a similar role, with a little less speed and a little more power

Rich (Boise, ID): What is the outlook for Walker Lockett? Will we see him in 2017? Starter or Pen? Kyle Glaser: You’ll definitely see him in 2017. He’ll start some, maybe 10 games, and make a few long bullpen appearances as well. Think something similar in terms of role to former Padres prospect Matt Andriese maybe, who made 25 apps, 8 starts his first year in Tampa Bay

Brett L. (Minneapolis): How high would've Mason Thompson & Reggie Lawson been drafted if not for injury & signability concerns? Am I right in thinking both can be Top 100 Prospects by 2019? Both fill every box outside of health. When closely looking at both, they appear to have everything fellow high school arms like Ian Anderson, Manning, & Whitley have, especially Thompson. Am I right to lump them into that top group? Kyle Glaser: Thompson you could lump into the lower end of that group, but not Lawson. I’ve addressed in earlier topics just how raw Lawson is and how much time he’ll need. If Thompson hadn’t been hurt, he probably still wouldn’t be top 10 right now but he’d be closer than he was. Thompson checks a lot of the boxes, Lawson does not. Both have similar upside, but Thompson requires a little less projection/dreaming.

Brett L. (Minneapolis): What's the word on the street (aka scouting community) when it comes to Gabriel Arias? And how much stock should be put into an international players' signing bonus when it comes to projection? What is the reason signing bonuses are so erratic & all over the place? Every year there's a ton of guys who get far bigger bonuses than guys who are universally viewed as better. This past year Gabriel Arias signed for nearly $2M less than Antuna & roughly $1.5M less than Abe Guitierrez. Is there a method to the madness or is it as random as it appears? Kyle Glaser: Word on the street is Arias is a superb defensive shortstop, even better than he was supposed to be when he signed, and a young leader as well who took charge of the J2 group once they got onto the field together at the Padres Dominican Complex. Offensively, it’s a long, long way away. And bonuses are so erratic in part because of trainers and how they operate, as well as, teams trying to work their various bonus allotments in a certain way. It’s random in the sense there’s no pattern that stays the same every year, but the method has to do a lot with the different trainers and what they expect and what teams in contention are working with

Matt (Denver): Who should Padres' fans be most excited about with respect to the plethora of international signings? Morejon seems to get the most acclaim (and got the most money), but what about Almanzar or Ona? Kyle Glaser: Morejon is pretty universally loved as the guy to watch, beyond any of the other guys. Ona and Almanzar both have their proponents but some concerns as well, Morejon just is at another level in the eyes of pretty much everyone in the business. If you want to focus on one, he’s your guy above and beyond anyone else

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Kj Baker (Nashville,Tn): What does it feel like to be one of top 10 prospects in America Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t know. I’d imagine pretty sweet

Brian (Arizona): Hi Kyle, love the chats Gettys improved his average nicely in 2016, but still strikes out too much. if he doesn't make more contact, can he be a regular OF ? thanks Kyle Glaser: No, and that’s where you hope the development continues to move forward. He showed for the first time this past year he can produce enough to be an impact regular rather than just flash occasional tools, but that growth has to continue. Making more contact more consistently is the biggest part of the next step of his growth process

Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): Is BA high on Nix and Lamet or low on Lauer? I thought we would see his name in the top 10 beofre either of those guys.Is the reasoning, Nix and Lamet hiave the higher ceilimng and Lauer the higher floor? Kyle Glaser: We sort of discussed this earlier, but to rehash – Nix has the highest ceiling of the three actually. Stuff is better across the board with three pitches and command. Lamet’s two primary pitches are better than Lauer’s two primaries and is further along in his development. Lauer’s floor isn’t as high as many say it is, throwing 89-92 with one good breaking pitch and two other offerings that need work. He has the potential to do make those jumps and I think he ultimately will, but again, it’s not like he’s a guaranteed big leaguer while the other two are super high risk. His risk is every bit as high as Nix’s and higher than Lamet’s. We’ll see how the stuff develops moving forward

Rob O (San Diego): You're presented 2 options: 1) Yoan Moncada as an amateur (no knowledge of prospect success) 2) Morejon, Ona, Almanzar, Rosario, Arias, Lopez, Barley, Orneleas et al. Which do you take for a similar overall expenditure? Thanks!!! Kyle Glaser: Moncada. Power, speed, average, patience, (premature MLB debut aside). It’s all there

Rob (SEA): If Quantril pitched as many innings in 2016 at Stanford and looked as he did after pro ball, does he last to 7? Kyle Glaser: He’s probably a top 5 pick if that happens.

Steve (Illinois): Hi Kyle, thanks for the nice chats did any of the top 2016 draftees (besides Quantrill) come close to the top 10 ? maybe Thompson, Lauer, Lawson or Reed ? many thanks Kyle Glaser: Hey Steve, my pleasure. Lauer was the closest, with Potts next. Those were really the only two in discussion for top 10 in such a deep system. The others all had significant enough warts to pretty much eliminate them from the discussion immediately.

Robby O (MLT): Did you like the Lawson/Thompson picks? Kyle Glaser: Yeah, no complaints. Whatever concerns about Lawson, you can see the appeal of taking a third-round flyer on him. If they were your Nos 1. and 2 picks of an entire draft, it’d be different., but after taking two really good college arms (Quantrill and Lauer), a nice infield prospect (Potts) and a college OF with some upside (Reed) no reason not to take a chance on two guys like Lawson and Thompson

Tony (Malibu): As Margot matures, do you and other experts think he'll develop 15 home run a year power? Kyle Glaser: I don’t know if I’d call myself an expert, but most of the folks out there seem to think its more 8-10 HR power, but with 35-40 doubles and 10-15 triples, so he’ll still have enough thump in the bat, even if its not purely in home run terms

Robert (Seattle): Hey Kyle! What's your take on Michael Gettys' ultimate role? Could he slash 250/320/450 as a 90th percentile outcome? Kyle Glaser: Hey Robert. I think it’s probably more of a .430 SLG, but again, that’s a decent

49 player, especially if he steals some bags for you want plays elite defense. We’ll see how he continues to develop mike (floripa): How do you see the Padres' outfield situation shaking out? Dickerson, Jankowski, Margot, Renfro, who gets the most time a which positions? Thanks. Kyle Glaser: Ultimately it will be Renfroe in RF every day and Margot in CF most days. Dickerson is your LF for now, while Jankowski spells Renfroe and Margot and is your first guy off the bench pinch-hitting and running. Even in an oft-used reserve role, you’ll still see Jankowski starting a couple of times a week and getting about 350 PAs, a nice chunk of playing time

Bob Divine (San Diego): How would Perdomo, 23. and Jenkins, 24, compare as prospects if they had not already exceeded the rookie minimums? Kyle Glaser: Neither would be in the top 20 of this system. Possibly in the 20-30 range

Kenney (Idaho): Any hpe for Espinoza and Quantrill joining rotation in 2018, or are we slogging through 2 more terrible years before we can dream of competing for a wildcard? Kyle Glaser: You’re slogging through four more years of hoping for a wild card. Even if Espinoza and Quantrill make it by 2018 (which is absolute best case scenario) there still will be no SS, three SP spots needing to be filled and very likely a hole somewhere else due to someone failing to perform. This team is in bad shape, make no mistake about it, and it’s going to require a lot of guys reaching their ceilings (never a guarantee) to snap out of it

Ben (Olney, MD): Please tell me all you can about Morejon and Ona! I see they aren't in the Best Tools and 2020 Lineup. Is this because they're too far out? Or did the Friars waste $19MM? Kyle Glaser: They’re just too far out and there’s a lot of other really good prospects ahead of them for now. Padres didn’t waste 19 mil, don’t sweat it, they just are going to need time to develop

Raymond (New Jersey): Hi Kyle, the chats are really fun I noticed a big difference in your rating of Naylor(#10) and that of mlb (#4). their only big complaint is he's limited to 1B and is not good defensively. just curious, do you see other issues ? thanks Kyle Glaser: Hey Raymond, thanks, glad you enjoy them. MLB hasn’t updated their team rankings yet to reflect the second half of the season, so when they do their offseason team top 30 re-rank we can reassess

Adam (Las Vegas): Has AJ Preller built a stronger farm system now than the one he tore down his first offseason? Kyle Glaser: You can find out when our Prospect Handbook is released later this month. There it will have organzation talent rankings for this year and past years, so you can compare there

Steve (Springfield): What are your thoughts on Logan Allen? Kyle Glaser: Good pitcher who fits that No. 4 profile pretty well with a good FB and breaking pitches. Just needs to stay healthy, which is not a given

Brett Harmon (United States): When do you expect Urias to be ready to take over at Shortstop. He seems like the most consistent prospect at that position progressing through the minor leagues right now. His bat and ability to get on base should make him the best shortstop in the system. Kyle Glaser: He’s not a shortstop. He’s a second baseman. He’ll take over there 2018 possibly, 2019 definitely

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): What can you tell me about Phil Maton? The reliever has put up some crazy minor league numbers the last 2 years for the Pads. Are we looking at a future closer down the road? Thanks for the chat! 50

Kyle Glaser: Heavy 93-96 mph fastball, curveball with the highest spin rate in the organization, cutter that saws bats off…he’s the real deal. He probably could close but fits a tad better into the setup role, but we’ll see

Terry (90210): What would you say Margots Ceiling & Floor is? Felt like he had more hype with the Red Sox vs Pads..why so? Kyle Glaser: Wouldn’t agree with that. His highest BA Top 100 prospect ranking came with him as a Padre pre-2016, and its about to be even higher now. His ceiling is an All-Star center fielder playing Gold Glove defense and hitting .300 with a ton of XBHs and steals. His floor is an everyday CF hitting a light .270 playing really good defense and stealing 20-30 bases. He’s a regular CF either way, and one of the best CF prospects in baseball

Travis (Florida): Did the padres whiff on the Jason groome pick? Is Cal Quantrill in the same class as groome? How does Adrian morejon compare to Jason groome? Kyle Glaser: Not really. Both have risks (Quantrill injury, Groome character) and Quantrill’s ceiling is every bit as high as Groome’s. Pads did fine there. And if Morejon and Groome were in the same draft, Morejon would get picked first

Lukas (Sweden): Where do you see the Friars system ranking in the next two to three years? We seem really loaded at the lower levels. Kyle Glaser: It wouldn’t surprise me if its the No. 1 system in the game two years from now. I could also see it dropping to No. 20. That’s how volatile it is with so much of their talent the raw, pure projection variety. Inevitably a lot of those guys will fail, it’s just a matter of its a quarter of them, half of them, or 75 percent of them. It’s a deep system with a lot of upside, but very volatile

John (NJ): Thanks as always for the chat. Is Franchy Cordero still relevant? Based on sabermetrics (ISO, wRC+, BABIP, SecA, wOBA) and the eye test, he had an explosive season offensively, compared to his 2014 and 2015 seasons. How close was he (if at all) to the top 10? Kyle Glaser: You’re welcome. And yes, Franchy Cordero is very much still relevant and has a place in the top 30. He was not considered top 10, but he absolutely is one of the better players in the system as he begins to put it all together

JP (New Jersey): Will Buddy Reed be a 4th/5th OF or do you think he will hit enough to play everyday? Kyle Glaser: Few scouts think he’ll hit enough to even get past AA, so 4th/5th OF is the ceiling on him. He needs to show he can hit before that changes

Lukas (Old Orchard Beach, ME): Is Eric Lauer an underrated prospect? I get the lack of elite velocity‐ but with his poise & his ability to repeat his delivery and throw strikes, is their a #2 starter upside with that high floor? Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t say he’s underrated. He was still in top 10 consideration in one of the best systems in baseball and finished just outside of it. But No. 2 starter? No. Not at all. Think No. 4, maybe 3 absolute upside, Drew Smyly esque. A good, solid lefthander who gets the job done. Very valuable and something a lot of teams covet, but if he’s your No. 2 starter your team has a problem.

Don (San Diego): What do you think of Tre Carter? He seems like one of the best overall athletes in the Padres' system. Kyle Glaser: He’s a guy to keep an eye on. Toolsy HS OFs from Georgia/Tennessee who rely purely on their athleticism don’t have a great track record, but Carter has some skills that open your eyes and make you want to keep watching.

51 a.j. (las vegas): So excited about this farm system. While a team like the Braves may (possibly) have more pitching depth is there any farm system that has 3 guys with the ceilings of Espinoza, Quantrill and Morejon? Kyle Glaser: Yes. The Braves (Allard, Soroka, Anderson, Newcomb) and Astros (Martes, Paulino, Perez, Whitley) both have as many guys (in this case, more) with the upside of the Padres three top SP prospects, while the Brewers, Dodgers, Yankees and Pirates all have at least two guys with similar ceilings. Which goes back to yes, the Padres system is very, very good and very deep, but it’s not on a planet all its own

Greyson (San Diego): Do you see Walker Lockett or Dinelson Lamet making it into the rotation in 2017? Kyle Glaser: Yup. Both, as a matter of fact

Andy (Fort Washington, PA): Also could you please explain ranking Nix ahead of Gettys? I agree that Nix has shown glimpses of top of the roto stuff, but Gettys was one of my favorite prospects this year, with 40 XBH and 33 SBs underlying his tantalizing power‐speed combo to go with potential 70 grade defense in center. Right now he's looking like the Bubba Starling that could. Kyle Glaser: It’s more a testament to Nix than a knock on Gettys. Fastball had the highest average velo in the system and he kept it over the course of the season, his curveball was rated the best breaking pitch in the Midwest League by opposing managers and his changeup became an above-average pitch, all with sterling control. Gettys has all you mentioned, but also very questionable hitting ability moving forward. Nix has no such knock on him. When you get the prospect handbook though, you’ll see the grades are even and given Gettys’ performance in Elsinore, the distance between the two is not substantial

A.J. (Las Vegas): If both were to move forward at a reasonable rate who would be the better defender in CF, Margot or Gettys? Kyle Glaser: It’s a debate a lot of folks in the Padres offices are having, but in the end Margot gets the edge for now. Both are Gold Glove caliber defenders though, a good problem for the Padres to have

James (San diego): How many potential all stars are in the farm system Kyle Glaser: If everything goes according to plan, you’re probably looking at 5-6 frequent All- Stars and 5-6 others who will get a nod or two. It’s a pretty good amount to have, 10-12 potential All-Stars in your system, and a testament to the depth the Padres have built

Nosh (Earth): On what planet are these 9 jokers better prospects than Naylor? Because I've already ruled out Earth. Thanks Kyle Glaser: Funny you say that because, a lot of scouts and colleagues actually feel strongly there’s an additional 5-6 guys better than Naylor as well. I gave him a lot of credit and cut him some slack given he was one year out of HS, traded midseason across the country and promoted at the same time. It’s a lot to ask of a guy who was 18 most of the season, so I wasn’t willing to drop him further than I did. But I was in the minority, a lot of people felt he should’ve been dropped way further. We’ll see

John (San Diego, CA): Has Jose Rondon become a nonprospect? Does he have a shot at taking the shortstop job? Kyle Glaser: No, he’s still a prospect, it’s just as more of a utility-guy, maybe starting SS for a year or two type. He’s been in the big leagues and he’ll be back there, but he’s not a guy who you pencil in as your SS of the future. He’ll be in the top 30 though, he’s just not an elite guy

John (San Diego, CA): Josh Naylor was a top 100 prospect at the time of his trade to the padres, but I haven't seen much praise on him since. Will he make BA's top 100 and what's your outlook on him this season? 52

Kyle Glaser: He will not be in the top 100. My outlook on him is he’ll go back to Lake Elsinore, get comfortable, and show some of the big power we’ve all seen before a move up to AA. There, we’ll see how he handles the better pitching in what is considered the largest jump in the minors (HiA to AA). He’s not a top 100 guy anymore, but he’s still a top 10 prospect in a very deep system, which counts for a lot

Sin Vegetales (Orlando): Excluding Morejon and Ona can you pref out the J2 class from '16? Almanzar, Arias, Barley, Guzman, Lopez, Miliano, Ornelas, Quintero, J Rosario, Kyle Glaser: Almanzar, Arias, Rosario, Ornelas, Miliano, Quintero are the top 6 in order, with Barley, Lopez and Guzman a clear tier below right now. Again though, we’re talking about 16 year olds. A lot can and will change

Adam (Las Vegas): Would you prefer Anderson Espinoza or Michael Kopech? Kyle Glaser: Espinoza. Better array of offerings, less character risk, no question he starts. At the same time, Kopech is still a stud in his own right and I expect him to have a very successful career

John (San Diego): How does the top end of the Padres' system this year compare to the last five years? Kyle Glaser: Well, the 2015 top end is pretty excellent. Top 7 are Matt Wisler, Trea Turner, Hunter Renfroe, Joe Ross, Austin Hedges, Max Fried, Cory Spangenberg – that’s 5 big leaguers and two others who are still top prospects. Prospects, by their very nature, have such a high attrition rate that’s pretty rare to see. Will the top 7 this year end up better than that? It’s arguable, but it’s not clear cut in any way

Rob (MLT): I don't see the logic in drafting Lauer outside of money. At first it seemed like maybe a 3/4, but do you think it was a mistake in the 1st? Kyle Glaser: No. Polished lefties with four pitches, good command and track record of success are wise investments, especially at the 25th overall pick where the slam dunks are long gone. He’s a good pitcher and should be a major leaguer, which most times is all you can ask for at the back end of the first round

Dan (Augusta, ME): Michel Miliano is getting some buzz from instructs. Did he sneak on to the 30 or is the system just too deep? Thanks. Kyle Glaser: System is just too deep, but keep an eye on him for sure

Rob (Seattle): Does Tatis have the potential to pull a Leodys Teveras type skyrocket up rankings? Kyle Glaser: Yes. Needs to show he’s done some things as we move into this next season, but if he does, then yes

Robert (San Diego): Does Quantrill, if everything clicks, project as a #1/#2? Not a true ace but an occasional All‐Star? Kyle Glaser: If everything clicks he’s a really good No. 2. A Matt Cain to Anderson Espinoza’s Tim Lincecum in their primes. (Purely talking role here, not pitcher comps)

Luis Urias (Knocking on AA's Door): Think I can become an average D, 300/340/400 hitter? Kyle Glaser: Try above-average D, .320/.380/.420 hitter. You can be an All-Star and batting title contender, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise

Padres Fan in 2021 (2021): I'm currently watching Michael Gettys, Buddy Reed and Hunter Renfroe roam Petco, all hitting their 99th percentile outcomes. Drooling yet? Kyle Glaser: Well, not many balls in the OF would drop, but I’d be concerned with how many strikeouts are being racked up at the plate.

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Doug (Sacramento): Will Renfroe hit and reach base enough to become an above average potential all‐star? Or is he destined to be another big power guy with high K's and low OBP? Kyle Glaser: That’s the million dollar question. After last year a lot more people are in the former camp, but there’s still a lot of people in the latter. I’m in the optimist camp and think you can end up the guy in the positive outcome, but a Jeff Francouer 2.0 scenario (some good years but largely bouncing around from team to team due to K issues) isn’t something we’re completely out of the woods from.

Doug (Sacramento): What position player has the best shot to be a perennial all‐star? (If any) Kyle Glaser: Manny Margot. Hit, run, defense, it’s all there

John (San Diego): Can you think of a more interesting rotation mix in the minors than we should see in Lake Elsinore this year? Should I take a drive up the 15? Kyle Glaser: The Dodgers potential rotation mix in Rancho Cucamonga (Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jordan Sheffield, Mitchell White) is equally interesting, and the Braves at their new HiA affiliate (Soroka, Toussaint, Fried, Allard) should be as well. But yes, Storm games are always fun and there is definitely talent to see. Definitely make that drive

Loren (La Jolla, CA): ETA for Lauer and Quantrill to be pitching in a Padre uniform? Gotta imagine Padres want that to happen ASAP considering their high minors pitching depth (yikes) Kyle Glaser: 2018 first callups, 2019 in the rotation.

Nick (San Diego): What kind of future does Brad Wieck have with the Pads? Whats the ceiling? Kyle Glaser: Really good LHP who can get righties out too. He’ll pitch some important 7ths and 8ths facing both sides, and get the job done

Jason (Ocean beach): Where do you see Luis Urias finishing the year? AAA? MLB? Also, most reports seem to be really low on his power potential but it seemed like he made strides in that regard last year. (2b not HR) Are those grades changing at all? Kyle Glaser: I see him finishing the year in AAA. His power potential jumped in the second half of last year when he slugged .505. And it was there for all to see when he front footed a ball and it went 390 feet over the CFs head for a double in the Padres futures game against Texas. His power potential grade has absolutely increased, although its still not more than fringe-average. Still, with his average and on base skills, 8-10 home runs will be just fine

Rob (MLT): Is Nola a decent recent comp for a good outcome if everything clicks fast for Quantrill? Kyle Glaser: Quantrill higher. He throws harder and his changeup is better at the same point coming out of college. He’s a half grade better on both pitches. Again though, Nola is a very fine pitcher the Padres would be happy to have, so it wouldn’t be a huge disappointment if that’s where Quantrill ends up. It’s just he’s got a little more at the same point where you can see him ending up being better.

Bill (San Antonio): What are your ceilings for Naylor and Lucchesi? Kyle Glaser: Naylor a solid everyday first baseman, Lucchesi a No. 4 or 5 starter. Both have impediments to that, and this year should bring into focus where they ultimately will rise to be

Mark (Chula Vista): Do you think Austin Allen's future will be as a catcher? Kyle Glaser: He has a chance. He improved drastically from where he was last year to this year, but that just means he went from true bottom of the scale to being in the bottom 10 percent but not the worst. If he can make another jump, to even fringe-average, that will work with his bat.

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Matthew (Salem, Ma): What can you tell me about Andres Munoz, other than he throws hard. I can't even find any H/W info on him. Kyle Glaser: He’s 6-2, 165 and turned 18 yesterday. He throws hard, but doesn’t yet know where it is going. Stay tuned, but he’s a long term developmental project

Jason (Ocean beach): What is the scouting report on Chris Baker? He seemed to put up good numbers last year after being drafted. Kyle Glaser: Really nice defender who actually got some consideration for best defensive SS in the system. General sense was his future is as a utility INF who can adequately play 2B, SS, and 3B. Josh Wilson is a guy you maybe think of. Not the most thump and you don’t want him starting for you, but carved out a nice 8 big league year career as a defense first utility man

Robert (Seattle): Early in his career M gettys was said to potentially have plus raw power. Was that simply untrue, has he just not tapped into it or does his approach not make it come out? Kyle Glaser: It’s not plus, but there’s above-average in there that shows up from time to time. But his approach and overall hitting ability does not allow it to come out. There’s going to be a lot of doubles, but I wouldn’t expect an inordinate amount of home runs

Rob (SEA): Not a question, but thanks for sticking around for 3 hours! Kyle Glaser: My pleasure. I enjoy chatting. Always fun to talk baseball. Love that it’s my job to

Justin (San diego): Whats the story on Michael Kelly? He seemed solid in AA last year but put up El Paso numbers in El Paso and went unprotected in the Rule V draft. Kyle Glaser: Kelly showed some increased velocity this year, but the control isn’t great and never really has been. He’s a decently hard throwing minor leaguer who can maybe come up and give you some innings on an up and down basis, that’s not someone you go out of your way to protect in Rule 5.

Jason (Ocean beach): Looking at your reply about urias. What war does that profile look like? 4? 6? Higher??? Kyle Glaser: in the 4s. Touching 5s and maybe a 6 at peak.

Robert (MLT): Thanks for the details on the Lauer pick. You've convinced me. Kyle Glaser: No problem. Glad I could help clarify

Ken (Sandusky, OH): I'm dizzy and I want to go home now. Time to end this chat, Kyle? Kyle Glaser: Almost. Got to beat a BA record here and set a new one. Almost there

Lance (San Diego, CA): Have a prospect or two that you like in SD's system that no one is really talking about yet? Any deep sleepers? Kyle Glaser: Middle relievers don’t get a ton of love, but multiple scouts brought up to me unprompted. Really liked his stuff, how he uses his size and body, his moxie in big moments. That’s a guy who could quietly rise and end up pitching some important relief innings for the Padres down the road

Luis Urias (Knocking on AA's Door): I appreciate that! So if I do what needs to be done in the high minors, will prospect rankings reflect that ceiling? (sadly i'm not the real Luis, but i spect you knew that). Kyle Glaser: Yes, I knew that haha. And I think they will, but there will always be some people skeptical. It’s the nature of trying to predict the future, which is really what prospect evaluation and ranking is, and that’s completely fair.

Robert (Seattle): Been waiting a long time for a consensus upper‐tier hitting prospect. Do you think one of the kids will emerge as a Profar/Mazara/Sano/Robles/Rosario type prospect (purely in value and consensus) as a teenager?

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Kyle Glaser: That’s incredibly hard to predict. I think if it does happen it will be Almanzar, but it’s 80-20 against even that

Jerry (La Mesa): Does AJ Kennedy have any chance of becoming a major league player, given his strong defensive skills? Kyle Glaser: There’s a lot of guys who have gotten a taste of the big leagues based on that (come on down Padre great Luke Carlin!) so it’s not impossible. Don’t think there’s a long big league career there, but he can make it at some point

Matt (NY): Where would Austin Hedges have ranked on this list if still eligible? Kyle Glaser: Was waiting for this one. He would have ranked fifth, right behind Quantrill and right ahead of Morejon. Very strong suspicion the offense was El Paso driven, but there is a feeling he can hit .260 with 10-15 HR and play ridiculous D, which is enough as a catcher

Matt (Denver): Where does Ruddy Giron fit in the future Padres' picture? Kyle Glaser: He fits as a guy who sees some time playing 2B and SS before moving on and hanging around with some other teams around baseball.

Robert (Seattle): Side note: one of the best chats in recent memory. Does the draft portend enough talent for the Padres to get a true blue chipper? Kyle Glaser: Thanks. Appreciate the kind words. And yes, having the No. 3 pick in what is considered a very, very good draft gives them a great opportunity to grab a blue-chipper Kyle Glaser: Alright folks, think that will about do it. Think I got to mostly every topic asked about in the chat (there were a lot of repeat-type questions) so hopefully you all got the answers you were looking for. Thanks for chatting and I hope you all have a great rest of your week

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/san-diego-padres-top-10-prospects-chat- 2/#bI3yikEoVGzOd5Uy.99

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Padres roster review: Alex Dickerson

Jeff Sanders Contact Reporter Sizing up the Padres’ 40-man roster, from A to Z, heading into the 2017 season.

ALEX DICKERSON

 Position: Outfielder  Acquired: Via trade with Pirates in November 2013; Originally a third-round draft pick in 2011 (Indiana-Bloomington)  2017 Opening Day age: 26  Contract status: Won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2020; earned near a league-minimum rate in 2016  Key stats: 257 avg., .333 OBP, .455 SLG, 10 HRs, 37 RBIs, 39 runs, 5 steals, 44 strikeouts (84 games, 285 plate appearances)

Stat to note 1.047 – Dickerson’s OPS in a return trip to the Pacific Coast League, where he was the circuit’s rookie of the year in 2015. Even in a hitter’s league, Dickerson’s eye- popping numbers – .382 avg., .425 OBP, .622 SLG, 10 homers, 51 RBIS in 62 games – proved he had little left to prove in the minors.

Trending Up – Dickerson was so locked in in 2016 that his initial stint in the majors did little to interrupt a hitting streak that ultimately reached 29 games, the longest in pro baseball at the time. The left-handed-hitting outfielder hit his first home run during his initial call-up, then continued to rake in the minors until the Padres brought him back up for good in late June. In the majors, Dickerson put together his best month in July – .303 avg., .343 OBP, .621 SLG, 5 HRs – only to have nagging injuries sap him of momentum. The Poway High grad pushed his OPS to .833 in the final month of the season after a slow August (.643) and was at his best at his hometown park, as his Petco Park numbers (.892) dwarfed is production outside San Diego (.705 OPS).

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2017 outlook While General Manager A.J. Preller has purged pricey veterans off the roster, kids – well, kids younger than Dickerson – figure to provide the most pressure for playing time. Rookies Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe are the outfielders of the future, sophomore Travis Jankowski is currently the best fit atop the order and the organization remains intrigued by Jabari Blash’s power potential. A strong spring will certainly keep Dickerson in the conversation, but – as a left-handed bat who holds his own against lefties with experience at first base– he’ll remain a strong candidate for a bench role even if he lags in the starting competition this spring.

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Will Padres Take Over Chargers Blood Drive? By Todd Strain Since 1979, the Chargers Blood Drive has been saving lives in San Diego, but with the NFL team’s move to Los Angeles, could the San Diego Padres be stepping up to the plate to save it?

“We’d be very happy to attach our name to the blood drive,” said Ron Fowler, Executive Chairman of the San Diego Padres.

In an exclusive interview with NBC7, Fowler said he believes the blood drive is too important and saves too many lives to let it end, saying “This is all about community. It’s a great community effort the Chargers had; if they’re not here I want to make sure the blood drive doesn’t go away.”

San Diego Blood Bank Chief Executive Officer David Wellis tells NBC 7 that with the Chargers’ move to Los Angeles, the Chargers Blood Drive will not continue as constituted in San Diego. The event will move forward without the Chargers.

Wellis says that minutes after the Chargers announced their move to Los Angeles, he started receiving phone calls, text and emails from people “wanting to help.”

Wellis says, since its inception in 1979, the Chargers Blood Drive has collected over 73,000 pints of blood, “That translates to a couple of hundred thousand lives that we’ve saved.” “The blood drive saves thousands of lives and that’s what it’s all about, to go away would be terrible for the community and we don’t want to see that happen. It’s important, it saves lives, what better thing to be involved with,” said Fowler.

Whether the Padres become the sole sponsor of the annual blood drive or become part of a larger partnership remains to be seen. According to officials with the Padres and the San Diego Blood Bank it’s a very fluid situation. However, both Wellis and Fowler said whatever happens, the blood drive needs to keep happening, keep growing and keep being an annual San Diego tradition.

In a Sunday phone call, Fowler pledged his support to Rolf Benirschke, the former Charger kicker whose need for donated blood was the inspiration behind the first Chargers Blood Drive.

“I called Rolf and said if there needs to be a home for the blood drive, we (the Padres) want to be involved and you tell us to what level and we’ll be happy to work with a broader San Diego community to do it, but we just want to make sure the blood drive continues and grows, we don’t want it to go away,” said Fowler.

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“Maybe there’s a chance to grow it, in the sense that if we get more sports teams involved it could get even bigger,” Wellis says.

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