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PRTR: Pakistan: Second Generation of Capital Market Reform Program

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PRTR: Pakistan: Second Generation of Capital Market Reform Program Progress Report on Tranche Release Program Number: 41108 Loan Number: 2340 June 2011 Pakistan: Second Generation of Capital Market Reform Program (Second Tranche) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 15 June 2011) Currency Unit – Pakistan rupee/s (PRe/PRs) PRe1.00 = $0.01166 $1.00 = PRs 85.76 ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank AETP – Accelerating Economic Transformation Program FSCP – Financial Services Commission of Pakistan FY – fiscal year GDP – gross domestic product ICM – Institute of Capital Markets INPRS – International Network of Pension Regulators and Supervisors IOSCO – International Organization of Securities Commissions ISE – Islamabad Stock Exchange KSE – Karachi Stock Exchange LSE – Lahore Stock Exchange MOF – Ministry of Finance NBFC – nonbank finance company NBFI – nonbank financial institution NIT – National Investment Trust NSC – national savings center OPS – occupational pension scheme PC – Privatization Commission REIT – real estate investment trust SBP – State Bank of Pakistan SECP – Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan SOE – state-owned enterprise TA – technical assistance NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the government ends on 30 June. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2010 ends on 30 June 2010. (ii) In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. Vice-President X. Zhao, Operations 1 Director General J. Miranda, Central and West Asia Department (CWRD) Director D. Kertzman, Financial Sector, Public Management and Trade Division, CWRD Team leader L. Schou-Zibell, Senior Economist, CWRD Team members A. Bhandara, Project Officer, Pakistan Resident Mission L. Nazarbekova, Senior Counsel, Office of the General Counsel L. Raquipiso, Senior Economics Officer, CWRD F. Teves, Assistant Project Analyst, CWRD In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROGRAM IMPLICATIONS 1 III. PROGRAM PERFORMANCE AND THE STATUS OF POLICY ACTIONS 4 A. Second-Tranche Policy Actions 4 B. Status of Second-Tranche Policy Actions 5 C. Summary of Progress 12 IV. CONCLUSION 13 V. THE PRESIDENT’S RECOMMENDATION 13 APPENDIXES 1. Key Financial Sector Indicators 14 2. Karachi Stock Exchange Trading 15 I. INTRODUCTION 1. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved the Second Generation of Capital Market Reform Program (the Program) for the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on 31 July 2007.1 The program builds on the Government of Pakistan’s longstanding capital market reform agenda, which aims to develop a more balanced finance sector and improve financial intermediation. Policy outcomes promote (i) the development of institutional investors to facilitate long-term capital formation and increase demand for securities, (ii) improved efficiency in the securities market to increase the supply of corporate securities and optimize the allocation of financial resources to productive investments, and (iii) the strengthened governance of capital markets to improve market transparency and protect investors. 2. The Program comprises a $400 million program loan from ADB’s ordinary capital resources and a $1 million technical assistance (TA) grant to support implementation. The program loan has two tranches, each to be released after compliance with specified policy actions. The first tranche of $200 million was disbursed on 16 June 2008, 11 months after program approval. The delay was caused by changes to draft legislation prepared under the first tranche of the program that occurred after approval by ADB's Board of Directors. These changes appeared to reverse a key reform action.2 The government was able to address ADB’s concerns.3 3. To meet the second-tranche release requirements, nine second-tranche policy actions need to be complied with and sufficient progress needs to be achieved in the carrying out of the program, including compliance with 14 monitorable actions. This progress report outlines the second-tranche reforms implemented and achievements that demonstrate good compliance with tranche release policy actions and monitorable actions. While Program implementation was slower in 2009-2010 due to a range of factors, including rethinking of financial sector regulatory architecture in light of the global financial crisis, greater focus on tax and overall fiscal management reforms, the Government’s pre-occupation with the flood disaster, and a major Constitutional amendment which realigned powers between different levels of governments, there has been renewed focus on the Program in the last two quarters. Of the nine second- tranche policy actions, seven have been complied with and two partly complied with (while full compliance is being pursued by the Government). Of the 14 monitorable actions, eight have been complied with, three have been partly complied with, and three have not been complied with. II. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROGRAM IMPLICATIONS 4. Macroeconomic developments. Pakistan’s economy has struggled to regain stability since the global financial crisis in 2008. Unprecedented floods that affected the entire country in August 2010 further exacerbated the economy’s underlying fragility. Flood damage was 1 ADB. 2006. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Loan and Technical Assistance Grant to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for the Second Generation of Capital Market Reform Program. Manila (Loan 2340-PAK, for $400 million). 2 Subsequent legislative changes enabled senior government officials to participate on the policy board of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), raising concerns regarding its independence. Changes also raised issues concerning the alignment of powers among financial sector regulators and the potential for regulatory overlap. 3 The government revised the draft amendments to remove senior government participants from the SECP policy board and to clarify that the SECP would regulate the securities and debt market and nonbank finance companies. However, issues concerning regulatory jurisdiction remain because of the blurring of product lines and financial consolidation. 2 estimated at $10 billion, equal to 5.8% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of fiscal year 2010. Even before the floods, concerns were growing about the state of Pakistan’s economy. While Pakistan's external economic position improved significantly—the external current account deficit declined to 2% of GDP in 2010, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) foreign exchange reserves rebounded to $13.1 billion by June 2010, and economic activity showed signs of acceleration, with real GDP growing by 4.1% in 2010—fiscal performance deteriorated. The 2010 fiscal deficit target, which was revised upward to 5.1% of GDP in March 2010, was missed by a wide margin of 1.2% of GDP.4 This was because of substantial overruns in electricity subsidies and other public spending and a shortfall in tax revenues. The paucity of structural reforms caused delays in mobilizing budget support from development partners, which caused the government to borrow from the central bank to finance its substantially higher fiscal deficit. Expansionary fiscal policy and the monetization of government debt added to inflationary pressures. 5. During 2010, headline inflation increased to 15.5% from 10.5% in 2009. In particular, the contribution of perishable food commodities to overall 2010 consumer price index inflation rose to 16.5%, the highest since 2004. This rise is attributed to shortages of perishable food commodities caused by floods and rains, the direct impact of rising international commodity prices, the indirect impact of increased fuel prices on transportation costs, upward adjustment in the electricity tariff, strong external demand for key food staples, and the monetization of the fiscal deficit. Although this may be a temporary acceleration in prices resulting from flood damage to crops, heavy government borrowing from the banking system to meet burgeoning government expenditures is likely to exacerbate the problem. To mitigate inflationary pressures, the SBP raised the policy interest rate by an average of 1% in 2010. 6. The balance of payments has thus far remained stable but is coming under pressure. After posting a 6-month surplus in the first half of 2011, Pakistan’s current account balance fell back into deficit because of rising imports and declining inflow of dollars. Foreign exchange reserves at the end of the third quarter of 2011 stood at $17.49 billion. 7. To help stabilize the economy after the global financial crisis but before the floods, the government requested ADB and other development partners to provide exceptional financial assistance. 5 In response, ADB processed subprogram 1 of the Accelerating Economic Transformation Program (AETP) cluster in September 2008.6 Subprogram 1 of the AETP helped the government mitigate the adverse short-term impact of spiraling food and fuel prices and address some of the more fundamental challenges constraining faster growth, including reforms to strengthen the financial sector. In June 2009, ADB processed subprogram 2 of the AETP to help the government complete short-term stabilization measures including (i) reducing distortions in the agriculture and energy sectors, (ii) improving the social safety
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