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Food Security SPM5 Food security Coordinating Lead Authors: Cheikh Mbow (Senegal), Cynthia Rosenzweig (The United States of America) Lead Authors: Luis G. Barioni (Brazil), Tim G. Benton (United Kingdom), Mario Herrero (Australia/ Costa Rica), Murukesan Krishnapillai (Micronesia/India), Emma Liwenga (Tanzania), Prajal Pradhan (Germany/Nepal), Marta G. Rivera-Ferre (Spain), Tek Sapkota (Canada/Nepal), Francesco N. Tubiello (The United States of America/Italy), Yinlong Xu (China) Contributing Authors: Erik Mencos Contreras (The United States of America/Mexico), Joana Portugal Pereira (United Kingdom), Julia Blanchard (Australia), Jessica Fanzo (The United States of America), Stefan Frank (Austria), Steffen Kriewald (Germany), Gary Lanigan (Ireland), Daniel López (Spain), Daniel Mason-D’Croz (The United States of America), Peter Neofotis (The United States of America), Laxmi Pant (Canada), Renato Rodrigues (Brazil), Alex C. Ruane (The United States of America), Katharina Waha (Australia) Review Editors: Noureddine Benkeblia (Jamaica), Andrew Challinor (United Kingdom), Amanullah Khan (Pakistan), John R. Porter (United Kingdom) Chapter Scientists: Erik Mencos Contreras (The United States of America/Mexico), Abdoul Aziz Diouf (Senegal) This chapter should be cited as: Mbow, C., C. Rosenzweig, L.G. Barioni, T.G. Benton, M. Herrero, M. Krishnapillai, E. Liwenga, P. Pradhan, M.G. Rivera-Ferre, T. Sapkota, F.N. Tubiello, Y. Xu, 2019: Food Security. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. In press. 437 Chapter 5 Food security Table of contents Executive summary ..................................................................................... 439 5.5 Mitigation options, challenges and opportunities ........................................................................... 480 5.1 Framing and context .................................................................... 441 5.5.1 Supply-side mitigation options .................................. 480 5.1.1 Food security and insecurity, the Box 5.4: Towards sustainable food system and climate change .............................. 442 intensification in South America ............................................. 481 5.1.2 Status of the food system, 5.5.2 Demand-side mitigation options .............................. 487 food insecurity and malnourishment ..................... 445 5.6 Mitigation, adaptation, food security and 5.1.3 Climate change, gender and equity .......................... 446 land use: Synergies, trade-offs and co-benefits .... 492 Box 5.1: Gender, food security and climate change ......................................................................... 447 5.6.1 Land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 5.1.4 Food systems in AR5, SR15, and bioenergy ....................................................................... 492 and the Paris Agreement ................................................ 448 5.6.2 Mitigation, food prices, and food security .......... 494 5.6.3 Environmental and health effects of 5.2 Impacts of climate change on food systems ............ 450 adopting healthy and sustainable diets ................. 497 5.6.4 Sustainable integrated agricultural systems ....... 499 5.2.1 Climate drivers important to food security ......... 450 Cross-Chapter Box 6 | Agricultural intensification: 5.2.2 Climate change impacts on food availability .... 451 Land sparing, land sharing and sustainability ............ 502 5.2.3 Climate change impacts on access ........................... 460 5.6.5 Role of urban agriculture ................................................ 505 5.2.4 Climate change impacts on food utilisation ....... 462 5.6.6 Links to the Sustainable Development Goals ... 507 5.2.5 Climate change impacts on food stability ............ 464 5.7 Enabling conditions and knowledge gaps ................. 507 5.3 Adaptation options, challenges and opportunities ........................................................................... 464 5.7.1 Enabling policy environments ...................................... 508 5.3.1 Challenges and opportunities ...................................... 464 5.7.2 Enablers for changing markets and trade ............. 511 Box 5.2: Sustainable solutions for 5.7.3 Just Transitions to sustainability ................................. 511 food systems and climate change in Africa .................... 465 5.7.4 Mobilising knowledge ....................................................... 512 5.3.2 Adaptation framing and key concepts .................... 466 5.7.5 Knowledge gaps and key research areas .............. 513 Box 5.3: Climate change and indigenous food systems in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region ............. 469 5.8 Future challenges to food security .................................... 514 5.3.3 Supply-side adaptation ..................................................... 470 5 5.8.1 Food price spikes ................................................................. 514 5.3.4 Demand-side adaptation ................................................. 472 Box 5.5: Market drivers and the consequences 5.3.5 Institutional measures ...................................................... 473 of extreme weather in 2010–2011 ....................................... 516 5.3.6 Tools and finance ................................................................. 475 5.8.2 Migration and conflict ...................................................... 516 Box 5.6: Migration in the Pacific region: 5.4 Impacts of food systems on climate change ............. 475 Impacts of climate change on food security ................. 517 5.4.1 Greenhouse gas emissions from food systems ..... 475 Frequently Asked Questions .................................................................... 519 5.4.2 Greenhouse gas emissions from croplands and soils ................................................ 476 FAQ 5.1: How does climate change 5.4.3 Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock .......... 477 affect food security? .......................................................................... 519 5.4.4 Greenhouse gas emissions from aquaculture ... 478 FAQ 5.2: How can changing diets help address climate change?.................................................... 519 5.4.5 Greenhouse gas emissions from inputs, processing, storage and transport ........................... 478 5.4.6 Greenhouse gas emissions associated References .............................................................................................................. 520 with different diets .............................................................. 479 438 Food security Chapter 5 Executive summary Pastoral system vulnerability is exacerbated by non-climate factors (land tenure, sedentarisation, changes in traditional institutions, The current food system (production, transport, processing, invasive species, lack of markets, and conflicts). {5.2.2} packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the Fruit and vegetable production, a key component of healthy livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per diets, is also vulnerable to climate change (medium evidence, capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use high agreement). Declines in yields and crop suitability are projected of nitrogen fertilisers (increase of about 800%) and water resources under higher temperatures, especially in tropical and semi-tropical for irrigation (increase of more than 100%). However, an estimated regions. Heat stress reduces fruit set and speeds up development of 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million children annual vegetables, resulting in yield losses, impaired product quality, under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 and increasing food loss and waste. Longer growing seasons enable suffer from iron deficiency, and 2 billion adults are overweight or a greater number of plantings to be cultivated and can contribute obese. The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors to greater annual yields. However, some fruits and vegetables need (e.g., population and income growth, demand for animal-sourced a period of cold accumulation to produce a viable harvest, and products), and from climate change. These climate and non-climate warmer winters may constitute a risk. {5.2.2} stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilisation, and stability). {5.1.1, 5.1.2} Food security and climate change have strong gender and equity dimensions (high confidence). Worldwide, women play Observed climate change is already affecting food security a key role in food security, although regional differences exist. through increasing temperatures, changing precipitation Climate change impacts vary among diverse social groups depending patterns, and greater frequency of some extreme events (high on age, ethnicity, gender, wealth, and class. Climate extremes confidence). Studies that separate out climate change from other have immediate and long-term impacts on livelihoods of poor factors affecting crop yields have
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