Global Climate Change

Climate Change Impacts in A summary of the threats that climate change poses to the people, businesses and ecosystems of New York

WHAT NEW YORK CAN EXPECT I Estimated minimum of 5° F increase in temperature by 2100 I Damage to coastal habitat, property and infrastructure due to sea level rise I Declining drinking water quality and quantity I Increased costs to dairy and agricultural farming I Declining freshwater and saltwater fish populations I Further degradation in air quality leading to exacerbated unhealthy conditions

New York citizens have made substantial invest- ments in protecting the diverse and critical nat- ural resources throughout New York State, from the estuaries on to the forests of upstate New York. For example, on Long Island’s Peconic and Great South Bay, environ- A rise in sea level would seriously threaten miles of natural shoreline that provide undisturbed nesting habitat for birds and turtles as well as a refuge for rare beach plants on Shelter Island’s mentally and economically important shellfish Mashomack Preserve. © Carl Heilmann II. beds and coastal properties are at risk from sea level rise. On the Plateau, Adirondacks, and Catskills, large tracts of forest with econom- Increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the ically and ecologically valuable tree species, like sugar maples and spruce, are likely to be signifi- atmosphere have caused global temperatures to increase by cantly affected by the northward shift in their range. more than 1°F over the past century. This global warming has Although New Yorkers produce more heat trap- resulted mainly from human activities such as the combustion of ping gasses than all of Central America and Mexico combined, the State has a tremendous fossil fuels and deforestation. Global temperatures are expected resource in its people, who now have the oppor- tunity to lead the way in finding solutions to cli- to rise more this century as emissions of heat-trapping gases mate change and reducing its impact on future continue to mount. While the impacts of climate change will vary generations. from region to region, it’s clear that almost every place on the Following is a summary of how climate change will affect New York: planet will be affected.

taining current yields will cost more in the Striped bass is expected to experience a future. Increasing temperatures will major loss in habitat as ocean tempera- require more air conditioning to maintain tures rise, especially in the southern part existing levels of production, which will in of its range. This could have significant turn cause electricity prices to rise. effects on the overall health of bass stocks Furthermore, if the increased electricity in New York waters. used to cool the barns is produced by fossil fuel-generated electricity, it will Degrading Air Quality exacerbate the severity of the impact of Northern U.S. cities are likely to have climate change. more heat related deaths because of insuf- ficient adaptation to extreme heat. Falling Lake Levels Additionally, these higher temperatures The levels of and Lake will exacerbate the problem of urban air are expected to drop due to increased pollution, like ground-level ozone, elevat- evaporation and lower recharge rates ing mortality and asthma rates. caused by climate change. Lake Erie levels are expected to decrease by as much as five Northeast Regional Greenhouse feet by 2100, threatening wildlife and Gas Initiative Economically important species of trees, such as spruce reducing waters supplies for electricity and maple, could disappear from the Adirondack and Americans cannot continue to rely on generation. other New York forests with increased temperature from voluntary approaches to address the climate change. © The Nature Conservancy threat of climate change. Protecting the Forest Impacts Sea-level Rise Tree species are expected to migrate north last great places in New York for our Climate change is estimated to cause the as temperatures increase causing impor- children and our grandchildren depends sea level along the coast of tant species such as sugar maple and paper to rise anywhere from one to three and a on the adoption of practical regulations birch to dwindle, eventually disappearing half feet by 2080 at a cost of billions of like the Northeast States’ Regional from New York permanently. dollars in lost property and assets. Storm Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a mar- surges affecting shoreline properties will With increased temperatures and changes ket-based proposal to place caps on car- also increase by as much as 15 feet in that in precipitation, New York and other bon dioxide emissions from power same timeframe. Wide-spread coastal states in the Northeast are projected to plants. RGGI will achieve greenhouse flooding, accelerated beach erosion, and experience a 10-20% increase in the risk of the disappearance of important barrier gas reductions at the lowest possible forest fires. Additional damage to the and recreational beaches are all predicted cost and will serve as a model for other forests will likely occur due to the spread to occur as a result of rising sea level. multi-state and federal efforts. of pests and diseases. These impacts could cause severe damage to wildlife habitats, Drinking Water Quantity and homes, and public health. The Nature Conservancy supports Quality Impacts The rapid run-off from increased precipi- the adoption of RGGI and other tation levels is expected to affect New Declining Fish Populations The greatest dangers to the trout in the pragmatic policies that will York City’s clean drinking water supply. As freshwater rivers throughout New York the sea-level rises, it will lead to increased reduce emissions causing global are low levels of dissolved oxygen, slow saltwater intrusion when the seawater stream velocity, low depth of flow, high climate change. travels up freshwater systems, like the water temperature, and high levels of tur- , which serves as a backup bidity. All these conditions could occur water supply system. New York City’s with increased temperature and increased quest for alternative water supplies is likely drought conditions as a result of climate to inflict a high economic burden. change, leading to the formation of for more information, please contact: oxygen-poor conditions that will suffocate Farming Impacts trout embryos. Sarah Murdock David Higby New York is currently the fifth largest Senior Policy Advisor Director, Federal dairy producer in the nation, but main- Global Climate Change Government Relations Initiative New York State Office The Nature Conservancy The Nature Conservancy (518) 690-7850 x 7867 (617) 542-1908 x204 Sources: Gornitz V., et al. (2002); US Global Change Research Program (2000); USDA, Economic [email protected] Research Service, (2005); Union of Concerned Scientists and The Ecological Society of America (2003); [email protected] Chao, P. (1999); Iverson, L.R., A. M. Prasad (2002); Flanagan, M.D. et al. (2000); Major, D. and R. Goldberg (2001); Coutant, C.C. (1990); Chestnut L.G., et al. (1998). http://nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/

Recycled Paper 09/2006 WO589