MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE FEBRUARY 20, 2001

Based on a joint report prepared by the Zimbabwe National Early Warning Unit and FEWS NET/Zimbabwe

Summary

· January’s prolonged dry spell led to crop failure in the southern districts of the country, including parts of Midlands, Matebeleland South, Matebeleland North and Provinces.

· The Zimbabwe grain harvest is likely to be around 1.14 to 1.3 million MT, about 39 percent less than the 1990s average of 1.87 million MT excluding wheat. Final yields pending, the harvest would be among the lowest three years in the 1990s.

· The area planted in grain for the current season is below average and the 1990s average, with maize area estimated at 1.040 to 1.227 million ha. The area planted in cash crops also increased from average. For example, the following districts had all planted less than 20 percent of the average area normally planted by January 20: , Matobo and Districts in Matebeleland South Province; in Matebeleland North Province; Guruve District in Mashonaland Central Province; in ; and District in . Districts that planted less crops than usual are likely to face serious food security problems in 2001/02.

· With an unofficial estimated maize harvest of about 1.029 to 1.2 million MT, official carryover stocks of 400,000 MT, and unofficial stocks of 75,000 MT, the country will have a maize deficit of about 400-600,000 MT during the next marketing year (April 2001 to March 2002). During mid- to end of February, FEWS NET will collaborate with the government to develop preliminary crop estimates for the current agricultural season.

· Households in need of food aid are in Mvuma, Mberengwa and Districts in Midlands Province; Chivi, Mwenezi and Zaka Districts in Masvingo Province; most of Matebeleland South Province and in . Normal coping mechanisms in these districts —such as consumption of mopane worms and watermelons in , and green maize, squash and okra elswehere — are not available now.

· Grain Marketing Board (GMB) maize sale volumes to millers and farmers increased in January to about 60,000 MT, up from about 20,000 MT in previous months. Compared to last year, maize prices in the urban markets have increased.

· Cumulative sales of certified maize seed since September have increased to 30,675 MT. At the recommended rates of planting, this quantity would be sufficient to cover 1.227 million hectares for the 2000/01 production year. This area planted would still be lower than last year’s area and the 1990s average.

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1. Food-Security Status

Based on production prospects and current maize stocks in the country, Zimbabwe needs to consider importing maize soon, especially from South Africa, to meet requirements in the southern districts. These districts now have a maize deficit and will not meet their requirements with the 2000/01 crop.

1.1. Current Food-Security Status through March 2001

At the end of January 2001, with only two months left until the end of the 2000/01 marketing year on 31 March, Zimbabwe had 525,000 MT of maize in stocks in the Official Strategic Reserves. The draw down on the official reserves increased to more than 60,000 MT per month in January, compared to about 20,000 MT in past months. The increase in maize purchases from the Reserve is attributed to low stocks held by both farmers and millers. Maize stocks available nationally will last until mid-June 2001 with consumption at about 167,000 MT per month.

Zimbabwe has adequate wheat stocks to last until August 2001 at normal consumption rates. Of the 250,000 MT of wheat harvested in October, more than 87,000 MT have been consumed or exported. At the end of December 2000, about 200,000 MT of wheat remained, and of stocks available, at least 61,000 MT were held by the three large millers and the Grain Marketing Board..

Food access has become a problem for some households in the southern districts of the country as their normal coping mechanisms have been eroded and maize prices have gone up. The food security situation will only improve if the Department of Social Welfare starts to implement the food-for-work program in the affected districts.

1.2. Food-Security Prospects for Next Year (April 2001/March 2002)

Compared to last year’s level and average, the reduction in crop area planted and the dry spell in January are likely to cause a decreased harvest in all farming sectors. The country is likely to experience a maize deficit of about 400-600,000 MT in the 2001/02 marketing year (April 2001 to March 2002). This deficit is abnormal when compared to the surplus of more than 300,000 MT in most years in the 1990s. The middle and southern provinces of the country — Masvingo, Midlands, Matebeleland South and North Provinces — will also experience amaize deficit as these provinces did not plant enough and were seriously affected by January’s dry spell. Most of these provinces are normally food insecure and in 2001/02, the contribution of crops to food security would be less than normal.

2. Agrometeorological Conditions

Crops that had suffered from moisture stress in January started recovering with widespread, heavy rainfall starting in the first week of February. However, this rainfall will only benefit pastures and livestock in the southern districts as some crops had already wilted. Food aid programs have to be initiated now in these districts and contingency measures need to be planned for the 2001/02 marketing year.

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2.1. Rainfall Distribution

Most of the country received heavy rainfall from February, bringing the cumulative rainfall for most of the country to more than 80 percent. The dry spell that started in early January persisted the whole month with only light scattered showers during the period. Extreme northern and eastern parts of the country received heavy rainfall during the last week of January. The rainfall spread south and westwards during the first weeks of February as the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which was stationed north of the country, moved southwards due to the low pressure system that developed over central parts of Mozambique and western parts of Zambia. The ITCZ led to widespread, heavy rainfall, which increased the cumulative amount received during the season. Nevertheless, it is too late for the recovery of the wilting crops in most of the southern districts.

Figure 1: Percentage of Normal Rainfall from 1 October 2000 to 14 February 2001

Source: Zimbabwe Department of Meteorological Services

Almost two thirds of the country — Manicaland, Midlands, Mashonaland East and Central, Matebeleland North and parts of Masvingo Provinces — had received more than 80 percent of normal rainfall by February 14. Most of , Chipinge, Nyanga and Guruve Districts have received more than 100 percent of normal rainfall. As of February 14, the least rainfall, less than 60 percent of normal, was received mostly in Beitbridge District, which has consistently received light rainfall during the season (Figure 1). 4

2.2. Crop Conditions

The dry spell in January caused severe moisture stress on all crops. Some maize reached the permanent wilting point in the southern districts of Matebeleland South and North, Masvingo and Midlands Provinces, of Mashonaland East Province and the Zambezi valley in Mashonaland Central Province. Stalk borer infestation in maize, compounded by an outbreak of grasshoppers in Chipinge and Chiredzi Districts, has made the situation worse.

The prolonged dry spell in January followed by the current heavy rainfall in most areas could reduce yields. Heavy rain can also lead to leaching of nutrients and water logging. The Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation has announced that flooding has affected crops and livestock along the main tributaries of the Zambezi River in the Zambezi valley. Most of the millets, sorghum and cash crops such as cotton are recovering from the dry spell but yields will be reduced as some of the crop was affected at fruit formation. Based on the Water Satisfaction Index from the start of the rainy season through the first dekad (10-day period) of February, the maize crop is likely to fail in parts of Midlands and Masvingo Provinces (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Estimated Maize Performance based on the Water Satisfaction Index from the Start of the Rainy Season through February 10, 2001

Source: USGS

Harvesting and curing of the early-planted tobacco is in progress and weeding and top dressing of the dry-land crop is under way. The AGRITEX fortnightly report of February 2 indicated that, due to the dry spell, false ripening of the crop has been observed in Mashonaland West and and that this is likely to affect the quality of some of the tobacco. 5

2.3. Livestock and Vegetation Conditions

The Department of Veterinary Services has managed to control the outbreak of anthrax that started in November in Headlands, Nyanga, Zvimba, Mhondoro, Chihota, and Gokwe Districts. Livestock in most communal areas are reported to be in poor to fair condition.

Zimbabwe has adequate pastures for livestock in most areas except for and Beitbridge Districts that are either devoid of grass cover or have only dry grass from last season, an abnormal situation during this time of the year. A FEWS NET and NEWU visit to the southern districts in mid-January revealed that, due to shortage of grazing in Mtetengwe communal area of Beitbridge District, donkeys were feeding on tree barks of some species and some farmers were collecting dry mopane leaves for their animals to eat. These are all indications of the severity of this situation.

2.4. State of Major Dams

Before the heavy rainfall received from the first week of February, most major dams continued to loose water through evaporation and use. Substantial water inflows were recorded during the first two weeks of February. The Hydrological Department report for February 12 indicated that the major dams were 93.8 percent full. The dams in Masvingo, Midlands and Matebeleland North Provinces received the greatest inflows during the period. Most dams and rivers have adequate water for human, livestock, irrigation and industrial requirements, even the southern districts of the country, which have consistently received below normal rainfall this season.

3. Crop Production and Food Availability Outlook for 2000/01 Growing Season

The area planted in crops is estimated at 2 to 2.2 million ha. The area planted is less than the area planted both last year and the 1990s average. Maize planting is estimated at 1.04 to 1.2 million ha, less than last year’s estimated area of 1.4 million ha. As a result of the lower number of plantings and the prevailing weath er conditions, grain production in 2000/01 is expected to range between 1.14 to 1.3 million MT. The maize harvest estimate of 1.03 to 1.2 million MT is 50 percent less than production last year and 40 percent less than the 1990s average. The anticipated maize production combined with the carryover stocks will not be adequate to meet domestic consumption estimated at 2 million MT, excluding the Strategic Grain Reserve requirement of 500,000 MT. Thus, a maize deficit of 400,000 to 600,000 MT is possible. This deficit could be met by government imports, provided foreign currency does not remain a problem.

3.1. Analysis of Area Planted in Crops in 2000/01

AGRITEX revised the estimated area planted in all crops at about 2 million ha. The area planted is 21 percent and 14 percent less than the area planted last year and the 1990s average, respectively. The decrease in area planted is explained by: · Farmers’ inability to afford certified seed; · Lack of finance for inputs; · Disturbances in large-scale commercial farms, which led to a 50 percent decrease in area planted in maize; · A shortage of sorghum and cotton seed in some areas in Matebeleland South Province; 6

· Some farmers’ inability to plant in Matebeleland South and in the southern districts of Manicaland and Masvingo Provinces due to poor rainfall distribution and late start of season in some parts; and · Unaffordable tillage costs (estimated at Z$3,500 per ha by the District Development Fund) coupled with lack of draft power.

Table 1: Area and Estimated Production for 2000/01

Crop Area Planted in Ha 2000/01 2000/01 1999/2000 1990s % 2000/01 as 2000/01 as Communal Average Communal % of 1999/00 % of 1990s Areas (CAs) Area Average Maize 1,042,117 967,117 1,416,700 1,301,440 93% 74% 80% Sorghum 75,650 74,100 175,230 145,723 98% 43% 52% Rapoko 53,941 53,941 38,400 71,861 100% 140% 75% Mhunga 88,318 88,318 115,100 159,770 100% 77% 55% Groundnut 255,896 252,930 268,100 177,775 99% 95% 144% Cotton 339,599 314,599 396,203 260,393 93% 86% 130% Sunflower 25,253 24,253 26,500 107,107 96% 95% 24% Soybean 77,446 12,446 36,490 55,418 16% 212% 140% Tobacco 78,242 13,242 90,769 84,661 17% 86% 92% Total 2,036,462 1,800,946 2,563,492 2,364,148 88% 79% 86%

Total Production in MT 2000/01 1999/00 1990s 2000/01 as 2000/01 as % Harvest Average % of 1999/00 % of 1990s from CAs & Average Other Maize 1,029,482 2,040,000 1,705,967 50% 60% 66 Sorghum 42,204 103,329 83,214 41% 51% 88 Rapoko 22,655 13,860 26,888 163% 84% 100 Mhunga 37,094 29,030 56,661 128% 65% 100 Groundnut 160,656 190,890 91,878 84% 175% 94 Cotton 328,140 374,354 224,663 88% 146% 86 Sunflower 14,127 15,750 35,498 90% 40% 86 Soybean 165,957 143,592 97,841 116% 170% 6 Tobacco 192,594 227,728 213,621 85% 90% 6

Note: Harvest estimates are based on yields for 1997/98. Figures are continuously updated. CA and other refer to commu nal, resettlement and small-scale commercial farming areas. Source: AGRITEX

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Maize was planted over 1.04 to 1.227 million ha, an area 26 percent less than last year and 20 percent less than the 1990s average. The area planted in cash crops also increased from average. The area planted in cotton increased by 30 percent, soybean by 40 percent and groundnuts by 44 percent (Table 1).

Most communal areas planted between 50 and 80 percent of their normal area in grain, including most of the grain-producing areas of Mashonaland West, Central and East Provinces. For example, by January 20, the following districts had all planted less than 20 percent of the average area normally planted in crops: · Beitbridge, Matobo and Umzingwane Districts in Matebeleland South Province; · Umguza District in Matebeleland North Province; · Guruve District in Mashonaland Central Province; and · Chiredzi District in Masvingo Province; and Shurugwi District in Midlands Province. Farmers in only 20 of 57 districts in the country managed to plant crops in at least their average area (Figure 3). The districts that have planted less crops than usual are likely to face serious food security problems in 2001/02.

3.2. Crop Production and Food-Security Prospects for 2000/01

3.2.1. Grain Production

If yield estimates are compared to the 1997/98 figures when a drought occurred in the southern districts, then the total grain harvest for this season can be expected to reach 1.14 to 1.3 million MT. The anticipated harvest is 39 percent less than the 1990s average of 1.87 million MT.

Figure 4. Total Grain Production by Sector, 1990/91 - 2000/01 3,500,000 Small Grains Commercial Sector Small Grains Communal Sector 3,000,000 Maize Commercial Sector Maize Communal Sector 2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000 Production ( MT)

1,000,000

500,000

0

1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 FEWS NET/Zimbabwe and NEWU Source: Ministry of Agriculture (Note: 2000/01 is a preliminary estimate.)

(This figure excludes wheat, which will be planted in May 2001.) If these yields are achieved, then Zimbabwe’s 2000/01 grain harvest would be among the three lowest in the 1990s, surpassing only the 1991/92 and 1994/95 harvests, both El Niño years. Communal, 8 resettlement and small-scale commercial areas are expected to contribute about 68 percent, (higher than the 50 to 55 percent contribution in normal years) of the1.04 to 1.2 million MT of maize. However, due to the expected production declines, the communal sector will produce 677,000 MT to 805,000 MT, down from a five-year average of about 1.2 million MT (Figure 4).

3.2.2. Cash Crops

Most of the cash crops are likely to achieve an average harvest. However, the anticipated harvests are likely to be lower than last year, except for soybeans, which could be 16 percent above average. This increase could be attributed to a shift by commercial farmers from such crops as maize and cotton, which are returning a relatively lower profit, to soybeans and groundnuts.

3.2.3. Food-Security Prospects in 2001/02

At the national level, food prospects for the 2001/02 marketing year are gloomy, given the dry spell in January and the reduced area planted in crops, both of which in combination lowered harvest prospects. With an unofficial estimated maize harvest of about 1.029 to 1.2 million MT, official carryover stocks of 400,000 MT, and unofficial stocks of 75,000 MT, the country will have a maize deficit of about 400-600,000 MT next year, depending on final yields. If these harvest estimates and carryover stocks prove correct, the maize available in 2001/02 would be adequate for consumption through November 2001.

At the sub-national level, the reduction in area planted in grain in the main growingareas of Mashonaland Central, East and West Provinces could adversely affect grain availability in the 2001/02 marketing year. Reduced yields and crop failure in the Midlands and Masvingo Provinces would mean that the normal flow of grain to the deficit southern districts of Matebeleland South and Chiredzi District in Masvingo Province would be minimal this year. The availability of grain would be compromised in areas where crops have failed. However, farmers there may be able to harvest some grain if current rainfall proves sufficient and the rain is well distributed through the end of April.

4. Current National Food Availability

At the end of January 2001, Zimbabwe had 525,000 MT of maize in stocks in monitored reserves (Strategic Grain Reserves and commercial stocks). The draw-down of these reserves is expected to increase from about 60,000 MT in January to 80,000 MT in February. This increase from the normal rate of 20,000 MT per month is attributed to additional purchases by both farmers and millers as their stocks become depleted. Even if every Zimbabwean relied on the reserve, there are enough maize stocks to last until mid-June 2001, provided the maize is of good quality and fit for human consumption.

Zimbabwe has adequate wheat stocks to last through August 2001. Of the 250,000 MT of wheat harvested in October 2000, more than 87,000 MT has been consumed or exported. At the end of December, about 200,000 MT of wheat remained, with at least 61,000 MT held by the three large millers and the Grain Marketing Board.

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5. Current Food Access

In January 2001, the Department of Social Welfare disbursed about Z$10 million under the food-for-work program to people districts affected by poor food access in southern Zimbabwe. The program will assist in alleviating food access problems of the needy households in these districts. However, the availability of grain should be ensured in these districts so that farming household welfare is not eroded by high grain prices. In urban areas, stabilization of the macroeconomic indicators is needed to avoid a continued increase in the cost of th e basic urban food basket.

5.1. Rural Areas

The dry spell has caused food security in rural areas to decrease with some households facing the risk of food insecurity. Households whose food security is threatened include: a) Some of the cyclone Eline victims mainly in Beitbridge, Chiredzi and Chipinge Districts. In Chiredzi District, some cyclone victims are receiving food through food- for-work programs, such as rehabilitating irrigation schemes implemented by World Vision International. b) Some households are at risk in Mvuma, Mberengwa and Zvishavane Districts in Midlands Province; Chivi, Mwenezi and Zaka Districts in Masvingo Province; and most of Matebeleland South Province and in Manicaland Province.

Table 2. Maize Grain Prices, based on price per bucket, in January 2001 District Area Maize Price Source of Maize ($/kg) Gwanda GMB Depot 6.85 GMB Gwanda Gwaranyemba - 8.33 Farmers farmers Manama - Grinding Mill 10.00 GMB Gwanda Wenlock 8.89 Farmers Beitbridge Lutumba 7.50 GMB Satellite Depot River Ranch 11.11 Traders Zezani 11.11 GMB Gwanda, Gwaranyemba and Chishinya Chituripasi (Diti 11.11 Traders Communal) Chikalakwala Irrigation 10.00 Traders Chiredzi Chishinya 6.11 Farmers Malipati 11.11 Traders

Source: FEWS NET/NEWU Field Trip Report, January 2001

The affected households cannot absorb high maize prices that have increased by 33 percent from Z$8.33 per kg in November to Z$11.10 per kg in January (Table 2). High prices have caused the situation to further deteriorate in that the dry spell has eroded most of these households’ coping mechanisms. The coping mechanisms and foods normally available this time of the year are not there this season, such as: · Mopane worms in most of Matebeleland South Province; · Watermelons in Beitbridge District ; · Piece jobs in all areas; and · Green maize, squash and okra in all the districts. 10

Also compromising farmers’ food security are lower than normal cattle prices. There are fewer buyers in the livestock market as a result of the hard economic conditions and farm disturbances such as the lack of participation of commercial farmers in cattle buying in communal markets.

However, some households in Matebeleland South Province, Chipinge and Chiredzi Districts will soon be benefiting from Z$1 million released to each district by the Department of Social Welfare under the food-for-work program.

5.2. Farm Workers

The Farm Community Trust is collecting information on affected families through a survey in commercial farming areas. The Departments of Social Welfare and Civil Protection are also carrying out parallel surveys throughout Zimbabwe to determine the food-insecure households on commercial farms. The Ministry of Social Welfare aims to start relief programs in the farms in March once needy households have been identified.

5.3. Urban Areas

The urban poor household food basket increased by more than one thousand dollars to Z$13,996.70 between November 2000 and January 2001, an increase of 57 percent from February 2000. For most of the urban poor, coping with this increase has been difficult, given the high price of the food basket coupled with ongoing loss of employment as companies close

Figure 5. Cost of a Minimum Food Basket for Six Family Members

1,800 18,000 Cost of Minimum Food Basket Roller Meal/20 kg 1,500 Meat & Vegetables 15,000

1,200 12,000

900 9,000 Cost (Z$)

600 6,000

300 3,000 Total Cost of Minimum Food Basket (Z$)

0 0

Feb 2000 Mar 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Jan 2001 FEWS NET/Zimbabwe and NEWU Source: Consumer Council of Zimbabwe or scale down. Many companies have been unable to pay the 13th month check that many working households have come to rely on for making major purchases or paying off debts. Data from the Consumer Council of Zimbabwe indicate that most households have reduced their meals, cutting the demand for meat and vegetables and maize meal from 60 to 40 kg per month (based on a household with six family members) (Figure 5). The decrease in household income 11 and the increase in commodity prices erode the purchasing power of poor urban consumers and increase their food insecurity.

6. Markets

Grain Marketing Board maize sales have picked up, indicating a possible maize shortage. Farmers are holding on to their reserves due to the adverse weather conditions. Safety nets need to be in place for the poor households as prices are likely to continue rising as the possibility of a maize deficit looms.

6.1. Market Development

Grain Marketing Board maize sales volumes to millers and farmers have increased in January to about 60,000 MT, up from about 20,000 MT in previous months. The upward trend in sales has been accompanied by an increase in the price of maize in most markets. The price at ZIMACE went up to about Z$7,200 per MT, compared to Z$5,300 per MT in November. Maize prices in the urban markets have increased compared to last year. For example, in the market (Midlands Province) the price increased from Z$4.72 per kg in November to Z$7.50 per kg in February (Figure 6). The increase in maize prices in all markets and the expansion in the volume of sales indicate a shortage of maize in the market, although the Grain Marketing Board holds about 525,000 MT of maize in the Strategic Grain Reserve.

Figure 6. Retail Maize Prices in Major Urban Markets and at ZIMACE

9.50 Mashonaland East Mashonaland Central Mashonaland West 8.50 Midlands ZIMACE 7.50

6.50

5.50 Price (Z$/Kg)

4.50

3.50

2.50

Aug 1999 Sep 1999 Oct 1999 Nov 1999 Dec 1999 Jan 2000 Feb 2000 Mar 2000 Apr 2000 May 2000 Jun 2000 Jul 2000 Aug 2000 Sep 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Dec 2000 Jan 2001 Feb 2001 FEWS NET/Zimbabwe and NEWU Source: AGRITEX, ZIMACE

6.2. Input Markets

Cumulative sales of certified maize seed since September have increased to 30,675 MT. At the recommended rates of planting, this quantity would be sufficient to cover 1.227 million hectares for the 2000/01 production year, or 13 percent less than 1.4 million ha last year (8 percent less than the 1990s average). Considering that some of the small holder farmers planted retained 12 maize seed due to the prohibitive cost of certified seed, the area planted in maize this season could be higher than average and last year. The actual area planted in maize this season would be verified during the Crop Assessment mission to be conducted by a team of stakeholders in February.

7. Socioeconomic Environment

The fuel supply situation has deteriorated, with long queues forming at service stations. In addition, the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority has started to ration power to consumers. These shortages are attributed to shortages of foreign currency. The Zimbabwe dollar has remained pegged at 55 dollars to the U.S. dollar, while it is trading at Z$75 to Z$80 in parallel markets. The government has been reluctant to devalue the Zimbabwe dollar, fearing further price increases. The foreign currency shortfall could affect importation of wheat and maize that might be needed to make up the supply shortfalls later in the year.

8. Food-Security Issues to Consider Immediately

The following food security issues require urgent attention: · If the dry spell persists, NGOs and the government need to plan for potential food- insecurity problems in some of the districts of Matebeleland South Province. · An assessment is needed of the nature and magnitude of urban food security. · The Grain Marketing Board should set up satellite depots in some areas in Chiredzi and Beitbridge District to facilitate farmer access to marketed maize as they are travelling more than 200 km in search of the commodity.

Other issues for consideration include the following: · The government and NGOs need to evaluate food needs and ensure these needs are met for people affected by cyclone Elinelast year this time and those in isolated households that have run out of food. · An independent organization is needed to assess the fast-track resettlement program to determine the extent to which the program will permanently solve the land problem. This organization needs to also assess its implications on the socioeconomic conditions of the settlers and the country. · Long-term solutions are required to counter the effects of drought conditions in the drought-prone regions. As the region does not normally produce crops successfully, solutions include water harvesting, irrigation and livestock development.