What Lies Ahead?

The Dilenschneider Group, Inc.

Special Report on Youth

What Lies Ahead?

Young People Today – Eager To Go But Digital, Disillusioned, Disheartened, Dislocated

March 2012

Young people in America, often referred to as of the good and successful life that fulfills The Millennials, are positive about their ultimate American Dream in the land of opportunity now futures but are also worried and unhappy with appears to be out of reach for many. the current financial situation and the state of the nation’s economy in general. They are ready and Unemployment remains the generation’s most eager to work hard and become successful, but pressing and disorienting issue. Although the the economic downturn and their financial stand- broad economy may be slowly recovering, the ing are holding them back. nation’s overall unemployed and underemployed total close to 23 million. The unemployment fig- For perhaps the first time in the nation’s history, ure for all ages in the U.S. is now 8.3 percent, but the concept of upward mobility for the newest official U.S. Dept. of Labor Statistics data placed generation of young people—that they can and total youth unemployment at 18.1 percent in will do better than their parents—is being ques- mid-2011. For recent college graduates, the rate tioned. That is clearly a cause for concern. is now about 10 percent, escalating to 22 percent for recent high school graduates. In January of 2012, the Marist Poll, designed to gauge the opinions of Americans of different gen- Many thought-leaders on hand at the 2012 World erations, found some 65 percent of Millennials Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland also queried said they believe the country is headed spoke pessimistically about what they labeled “a in the wrong direction, even though their general time bomb”—global youth unemployment. Ex- attitude was essentially positive. However, as ecutives there repeatedly raised the issue. As one many as one quarter of the total still had to move commented ruefully: “A good education does not back in with their families after leaving college guarantee a good life anymore.” or living on their own for a time. In the U.S., along with uncertain employment Few will dispute that, today, youth in America prospects, college graduates, specifically, are are in a difficult position. Many have the desire to challenged by a huge burden of debt. Reliable change the world, but lack the economic oppor- government estimates place the average amount tunity. They have become disheartened as they owed for college loans at $25,000 and, in a great struggle to achieve a hoped-for lifestyle. Indeed, number of individual cases, much higher. Out- the Millennial generation has the desire, energy, standing college loan obligations now exceed the and drive to do great things, but economic issues nation’s credit card debt. keep them from displaying their true potential. A unique confluence of circumstances has come What follows is a carefully researched portrait together to cloud the futures of today’s high of the realities youth are presently facing and its school and college graduates seeking to enter the implications for society as a whole. nation’s work force. Central to this has been the economy—the worst since the Great Depression On the heels of the economic crisis that erupted of the l930s. globally in 2008, an emerging, new generation of young adults, mostly 18 to 28, is having no easy Then, add ever-expanding globalization with time gaining entry into the job market. Many even skilled knowledge jobs being outsourced are well educated, technologically savvy, and overseas and growing automation/ digitization strongly motivated. But they still face increas- as machines continue to replace humans. Con- ingly poor prospects for finding the kind of em- sider, too, the implications of an older popula- ployment they seek, launching a career, starting tion now blocking a new generation by working a family, owning a home, and ultimately retiring well past the traditional 65 retirement age. And with security and dignity. The classic trajectory civil service employment, long a magnet for the

college-trained, has virtually disappeared. In the is magnified many times over abroad, where the wake of the recession, hundreds of thousands of spectre of major social unrest is an ever-present municipal and state employees were laid off. reality. Young people—whether rioting in the streets of the U.K. or organizing “Arab Springs” Adjusting to this new economic reality has in North Africa and the Middle East—have been brought inevitable alterations in lifestyles. As in the vanguard of activist protestors and not at noted before, many young adults are returning to all hesitant to use violence against the reigning live with their families because of budget con- regimes. straints. In another crucial departure from pre-recession employment strategies, scores of Such extreme reactions have not been, and will financially-pressed, discouraged college gradu- not be, the case in the U.S., where the ballot ates have been accepting lower-level, low-skill box still rules. Beginning last September, many jobs that do not require a college degree. This, in expressed their frustration in what became known turn, creates problems for those without college as the Occupy Wall Street protest that quickly degrees who otherwise would take such jobs. exploded into the nationwide, non-violent Oc- cupy movement. The movement changed the A just-published study of young adults by the national conversation to a heightened awareness Pew Research Center found that nearly one-half of joblessness and wealth inequality and may (49 percent) said they have taken a job they did likely re-emerge, bolstered by its union allies, as not want in order to meet expenses and 24 per- the weather warms. cent said they have even signed up for unpaid jobs to gain experience. Personal lives have also What can this stalled youth generation expect suffered as a consequence. Some 20 percent said going forward? What does a generation of unan- that they have postponed getting married. chored young people signify politically for the broader society as a whole? Economists warn further that longtime unemployed young people will be Certainly, one unique advantage today’s youth long-term losers. They become increasingly un- has over previous generations is connectivity. employable with the passage of time. Even when It’s estimated that at least half—and much more they eventually find suitable work, their lifetime among college graduates—now own and regu- earnings and standard of living will fall substan- larly use some kind of mobile wireless device to tially behind those fortunate enough to begin communicate online This can be a powerful tool their careers right out of school. for organizing and sustaining a movement for change or significantly influencing the existing Such prolonged unemployment inevitably also order. has adverse social and psychological fallout. Evidence abounds that joblessness, especially Politics, by far, will be the prime arena for any among the less well-schooled population, in- change in the current climate. Young people creases drug use, anti-social behavior, binge could be a decisive factor in determining the out- drinking, and even unwed motherhood, already come of the crucial 2012 presidential election. In at record levels in some region of this country. 2008, their aggressive mobilization and support Equally distressing, too-long-unemployed young played a key role in sweeping Barack Obama into people often lose a sense of place, a sense of the White House. belonging, and a sense of continuity in their lives. The psychic toll is palpable. Two years later, following more traditional pat- terns, legions of younger voters opted out and A gloomy picture of jobless, disaffected youth, stayed home—one of the reasons Republican spilling over with disappointment and discontent, candidates and the Tea Party made such huge

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electoral gains in 2010. It is becoming increas- tion. But all observers agree that economics ingly apparent that escalating discontent among plays a key role in shaping these attitudes. this large cohort is something that the political powers-that-be ignore at their own peril. The vast majority of young people are, in fact, not political activists and are probably indepen- Right now, in the light of economic realities, dent in their party allegiances. It is also quite President Obama’s re-election bid could be the true that the economy is recovering slowly and beneficiary of this discontent. Not incidentally, gathering steam again, which could make a the conservative movement also appears to have considerable difference in their economic status gained many younger adherents—especially going forward and, of course, how they think Libertarian standard-bearer Ron Paul. Political about the future. But, at this writing, we remain pundits attribute much of this development to basically pessimistic. Congressman Paul’s strong anti-war, anti-foreign intervention positions. Today, the bleak prospects looming for many are bound to influence their vote one way or the On the other hand, a recent, but controversial other. They will support the party they feel most study published in a leading academic journal willing, able, and equipped with policies that can held that younger Americans these days are less rescue them from the army of the unemployed politically-engaged and civic-minded than previ- and underemployed and enable them once again ous generations although also much less preju- to achieve The American Dream. diced based on race, gender, or sexual orienta-