Science Newsletter Issue 32 – July 2020 ______

Scottish Natural Heritage Science Newsletter Issue 32 – July 2020 ______

In this issue: Page

 Welcome from the SAC Chair 2  Making marine survey methods accessible for citizen science 3  Long-term Biodiversity Trends across Europe 4  Assessing offshore wind farm impacts on seabirds 6  Exciting News about Funding for Earth Observation Projects 8  Do you have students looking for ideas for Masters projects? 10  Research Reports Published in May and June 2020 10  News 12  SNH Staff Profile – Abi Gardner 12

Welcome from the SAC Chair Bob Furness

Welcome to the July 2020 SNH Science newsletter. I hope you enjoy reading the various items in this issue. The role of science in government policy and advice has possibly never been under such a sharp spotlight. The COVID-19 pandemic has put an unprecedented strain on the decision-making process, and of course on the NHS, the public and the wider array of business which underpin society. We have heard politicians comment that ‘we follow the science’. Well, I think that needs to be caveated. Science is never straight forward, and in my experience most good science is contested with clarity emerging through robust peer review. Quite often, original hunches, ideas or interpretations are wrong! Policy decisions need to heed the science, but not follow it, for there are wider socio-economic and other matters to consider. And as we have seen as the pandemic plays out, some earlier views on transmission and mitigation measures have changed quite radically.

I have been giving this a lot of thought as I come towards the end of my term on the SNH Board in March 2021. I want to take this opportunity to say how proud I am of our Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC), and indeed the staff of SNH who have worked with us. The role of the SAC is to provide, on request from SNH, an independent assessment of science underpinning novel or contentious aspects of existing or proposed SNH policies and practices considered by the Board or staff. I chair the SAC as a Board member, and that has been a very easy task because the SAC has been very clear in its assessments to date. The Committee almost always reaches a strong consensus position, which is great credit to its current membership. In virtually all cases SAC has supported views or evidence being put forward by staff, but where SAC consider there to be flaws it has said so very clearly, and has indicated the scientific rationale and evidence for a different position. This role, as a ‘critical friend’, is very valuable to SNH, and I know staff greatly appreciate it.

However, communicating science underpinning SNH policy among the Board is also very important. The Scottish Government will soon be announcing a round of new appointments to SNH Board, as there are at least three Board members (myself included), and probably four or five, who will leave the Board in early 2021. I feel that it is important to have two particular skills strongly represented on the Board, academic science, and experience of SNCB scientific policy. If we are to continue to build SNH policy on sound science it follows that having these skills represented on the Board would be a great support for the staff and partners. So I would encourage academic scientists, and those who have recently retired from posts in SNCBs, to consider whether they may be able to help ensure that science is strongly represented at SNH Board in future by applying for vacancies that are about to come up on SNH Board, most likely to be advertised around September. 2

Making marine survey methods accessible for citizen science Caitlin Orr

Communities and local groups are well placed to participate in marine survey and monitoring of their local coasts and inshore waters. With enthusiasm, community groups have approached Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) over the years looking for support and advice on how to undertake marine survey. Community participation has great environmental and community benefit; from increasing our knowledge of the marine environment and contributing to marine databases used by policy makers, to promoting ocean stewardship and building community connections.

Recognising the real community interest in this on the ground, and the wider benefits of community-led survey, SNH in partnership with Fauna & Flora International (FFI) have been developing practical ways to support and engage groups all round Scotland in marine survey and monitoring as part of a Community-led Marine Biodiversity Monitoring Project. Crucial to the project’s success, is its emphasis on co-production with community groups. Its goals are focused on finding solutions to some of the challenges to community survey participation; providing bespoke, professional survey support through a dedicated SNH Project Officer, facilitating the improvement of community marine skills and knowledge bases, and increasing the access to and availability of equipment.

The project started as an SNH graduate placement with an aim to create a public friendly marine survey handbook. A few groups expressed interest in the beginning, which has grown to over ten groups being on-board (and many more interested) through a combination of direct engagement in community meeting roadshows, word of mouth and networking. The project has grown from a one year project to a three year project with funding from the William Grant Foundation enabling this.

A successful survey demonstration event held in 2019 allowed communities to trial the use of various specialised survey kit in the field. Following on from this event, the project subsequently identified a range of community- friendly solutions to traditional (bulky and expensive) scientific kit including mini remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), drop-down video systems (DDVs) and custom- made polecams.

Communities are now sharing between themselves their experiences of building, testing and operating various survey equipment and taking advantage of the project’s Equipment Fund which has thus far provided eight community groups with their own equipment.

Alongside increased access to survey equipment, communities have identified the need for bespoke field methods to guide them in the collection of marine data on the shore and on the seabed. In June 2020, we published the Community-led Marine Biodiversity Monitoring Handbook (Community Handbook), co-created with community groups to provide bespoke survey methods specific to Scotland and the types of low cost and community friendly technologies now available. Community groups were involved in directing the content of the 3 handbook and piloting methods while the SNH survey and data team ensured information provided met the scientific standards expected within such a resource. While the handbook is centred on marine survey information, it goes hand-in-hand with developing skills within a community for self-sustained surveying.

One thing that has been inescapable is the effects of the current coronavirus emergency on the project and we had to rethink how we could support community survey ambitions when surveying can’t take place and everyone is staying at home. We developed an online virtual training tool using ESRI StoryMaps, to complement the Community Handbook. The aim of the training tool is to provide a useful and realistic experience of surveying and data recording, which will ultimately improve the quality of survey data collected in the field and build confidence within communities in their ability. The tool allows users to select survey stations across Scotland and virtually survey the seabed by watching high definition video collected by our survey team. Users are required to identify habitats and species, record the data accurately in template forms as described in the Community Handbook, which can then be scored with instant feedback.

As the project officer, this project is an utter delight to be a part of. Working with community groups, people basking in each other’s enthusiasm and undeniable passion for the marine environment is a real privilege. There is something very special about seeing the seabed through the eyes of an underwater robot (ROV), discovering, documenting and ultimately contributing to the science and knowledge of the marine environment. Over the next year we are working to deliver requirements for marine citizen science data flow to marine databases, alongside further marine survey capability and capacity building so that data gathered can leave a legacy for the participants involved.

Long-term biodiversity trends across Europe Chris Andrews

Despite much research focusing on the global decline in species, at local-to-regional scales trends can differ considerably. New evidence published in Nature Communications https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17171-y utilises 161 long-term biodiversity data sets, from across Europe, including from the UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) site in the Cairngorms.

The dataset includes over 6,200 marine, terrestrial, and aquatic species from nine European biogeographic regions, and shows that species diversity and richness have increased across Northern Europe, whilst remaining largely stable in Southern and Central Europe. These diversity and richness changes can at least be partly attributed to increasing temperatures in Northern Europe, with local fauna and flora frequently being replaced by species that are usually adapted to warmer conditions. This mixed response at regional and local scales, in comparison to the global declines in species, highlights the need for developing effective conservation strategies across multiple scales.

Figure 1 taken from the paper shows the distribution of the time series across biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups. The photo shows some of the equipment on the ECN field site in the Allt a’Mharcaidh.

Figure 1. a Relative distribution of studied taxonomic groups across biogeoregions (magenta dots: study sites). Note that the most south-eastern site (in Israel) belongs to the Mediterranean region. b Relative distribution of studied taxonomic groups and biogeoregions across realms. c Relative distribution of studied biogeoregions across taxonomic groups. FW freshwater, MA marine and transitional zone, TE terrestrial, Alg benthic algae, Bir birds, InvA aquatic invertebrates, InvT terrestrial invertebrates, Mam mammals, Pl plankton, Pla terrestrial plants. The pie charts show the proportion of taxonomic groups for each biogeoregion and realm, and the proportion of biogeoregions for each realm and taxonomic group. The shapefiles of the biogeographical regions and marine subregions were obtained from EEA74. Drawings of taxonomic groups are from phylopic.org. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

Chris is a co-author of the Nature Communications paper, works at UKCEH Bush, and is the manager for the Cairngorms ECN field site in the Allt a’Mharcaidh. The work on the field site is part-funded by SNH.

Assessing offshore wind farm impacts on seabirds Bob Furness

Offshore wind farms are expected to provide an increasing amount of our electricity needs in order to move towards a zero carbon economy. Unfortunately, offshore wind farms also represent a hazard to seabirds, with some species at risk of colliding with turbine blades as they fly through the area and other species at risk of displacement because they avoid these structures at sea. Estimating the impact of offshore wind farms on seabird populations requires modelling, and the models used require assumptions about complex ecological processes. For example, we tend to assume that impacts of collision (or displacement) mortality affect all age classes within seabird populations in proportion to their numbers in the population (i.e. risk is the same for all).

Another big question is whether numbers of birds killed by collision result in that numerical decrease in seabird population size over time (a density-independent model) or whether numbers killed mainly substitute for other causes of mortality that reduce numbers to a carrying capacity within the environment (a density-dependent model). There is much evidence of density-dependence influencing seabird populations, but uncertainty about how this should be parameterised in models. In assessing impacts, a precautionary approach has largely been taken to date, assuming that there is no density-dependent effect that will reduce the impact of mortality due to offshore wind farms. As demonstrated by Miller et al. (2019), this probably overestimates the impact in typical situations, but without a clear understanding of density- dependent processes that operate in different species and different ecological scenarios, it is difficult to be sure of that. So the density-independent model provides what might (but might not be) a ‘worst case scenario’. If that model shows that the impact is not likely to cause the seabird population to decline then probably the same would be true if a more complex but more realistic model incorporating density-dependence was used. This precautionary approach becomes a problem when the simple model suggests that the impact might be unsustainable. Is that conclusion because the model is ‘too precautionary’ or because the impact really is unsustainable? We have already reached a position where Natural England have concluded that the in-combination impact of offshore wind farms in English southern North Sea waters might be unsustainable, in relation to kittiwake. However, this principle applies generally, and even with careful marine spatial planning, a similar problem may be anticipated likely to arise in Scottish waters as further development takes place.

Several new studies shed important light on ecological relationships in seabird populations that help us to understand some of the important detail that is missing from simple population models. Pettex et al. (2019) analysed data from aerial surveys along 66,000 km of transect across an area of the Bay of Biscay and Celtic Sea, to investigate how gannets of different age classes distribute themselves at sea. Gannet is the ideal species for such a study because birds can be aged reliably from their plumage. They found that during winter, birds of different age classes were all distributed similarly across the study area. But in summer, adult aged birds were at much higher density at sea close to colonies and their density decreased with distance

6 from the colony. This is exactly what would be expected with seabirds, as they are ‘central place foragers’ having to bring food back to their colony. But much more interestingly, they also found that during summer the immature gannets showed the opposite spatial pattern. Especially in the case of the youngest gannet age classes, there were very few close to colonies but their density increased with distance from the colony. They inferred that immatures avoid competition with the more experienced adults by spending the summer ‘filling in the gaps’ at sea in areas away from colonies. Other research has provided evidence of density-dependent competition for food at sea, so this pattern should not be a surprise. But it has important implications for assessing impacts of offshore wind farms on seabirds. Where the wind farm is close to a large colony the impact on breeding birds is likely to be greater than would be estimated by models that assume equal effects on all age classes. Where a wind farm is far from large colonies, the impact may be predominantly on immature birds even possibly with negligible impact on the adult component of populations.

Two other new studies provide insights into density-dependent mechanisms in seabird populations. Southwell and Emmerson (2020) found that population growth of an Antarctic seabird population was strongly density-dependent, but predominantly determined by availability of high quality breeding sites. McKnight et al. (2019) showed that kittiwakes in Alaska show strong density-dependence in their immature survival and in their selection of which colony they choose to recruit to breed. Neither of those studies discussed implications for assessing impacts of offshore wind, but they add to the growing understanding of the importance of ecological detail in shaping how impacts need to be assessed in biologically realistic models.

The SNH renewables team are, of course, well aware of the fact that work on offshore renewables is still at an early stage and that we are all learning. Much of the research is complex, cutting edge science, and results in slow but continuous improvement in our understanding of relevant aspects of seabird ecology and the science underpinning impact assessment. SNH is applying a proactive role with academics, developers and advisers on this topic, as outlined in the April 2020 SNH Science Newsletter article by Chris Eastham and Erica Knott about the marine bird impact assessment guidance workshop held at Battleby in February.

McKnight, A., Blomberg, E.J., Irons, D.B., Loftin, C.S. and McKinney, S.T. 2019. Survival and recruitment dynamics of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla at an Alaskan colony. Marine Ornithology 47: 209-222. Miller, J.A.O., Furness, R.W., Trinder, M. and Matthiopoulos, J. 2019. The sensitivity of seabird populations to density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and anthropogenic mortality. Journal of Applied Ecology 56(9): 2118-2130. Pettex, E., Lambert, C., Fort, J., Doremus, G. and Ridoux, V. 2019. Spatial segregation between immatures and adults in a pelagic seabird suggests age-related competition. Journal of Avian Biology 50 (5): 1-10. Southwell, C. and Emmerson, L. 2020. Density dependence forces divergent population growth rates and alters occupancy patterns of a central place foraging Antarctic seabird. Ecology and Evolution 10: 2339-2351.

Exciting news about funding for Earth Observation projects Philippa Vigano SNH has been awarded funding and support for three Earth Observation projects:

1. Using Sentinel data to detect habitat change on protected areas and the wider countryside 2. Developing an operational wildfire and muirburn monitoring system for Scotland 3. Burn detection using Sentinel 1 data

All of these projects allow us to engage with and harness resources from the wider Earth Observation community. Working with partners helps us to solve problems where the sum of the contributions gets us further than by ourselves. It also means that we can take a leading role in using new technologies that focus on our response to the climate and nature emergencies and the green recovery.

The first 2 projects are part of the ESA Copernicus User Uptake programme. This funding is available to take successful EO projects and mainstream their use. Each project will receive 100 days of specialist staff resource provided by JNCC and additional business associates and the compute resource is on the JASMIN infrastructure at the Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC). The third project is part of the DEFRA Earth Observation Centre of Excellence R&D programme, allowing us to test and develop some new ideas and methodology.

Using Sentinel data to detect habitat change on protected areas and the wider countryside The first project is going to develop the use of indices derived from satellite data to indicate change on protected areas or on particular features. This builds on some work by JNCC to develop a desktop tool for interrogating NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) for sites and features.

The project is going to focus on peatlands, grasslands and woodlands and we need to differentiate significant change from seasonal or expected change. It is a great opportunity to get some EO derived data and satellite imagery onto our desktops. Teams from Natural England, Natural Resources Wales and Historic Environment Scotland are also part of this work and this gives us a chance to share expertise and develop ideas together. 8

Developing an operational wildfire and muirburn monitoring system for Scotland The muirburn and wildfire project builds on the very successful work that the Earth Observation team in GIG has developed to map areas of wildfire using Sentinel 2 imagery.

The Copernicus User Uptake project will allow us to scale this approach up to include wildfires and muirburn across Scotland. The system would also give a better estimation of the dates of burns, creating a continually updated operational dataset of burnt areas as new imagery becomes available.

Burn detection using Sentinel 1 data The third successful bid is to research the use of Sentinel 1 data for detecting and mapping wildfires and muirburn. SENTINEL-1 is an imaging radar mission providing continuous all- weather, day-and-night imagery. We know that we can use multispectral Sentinel 2 data to map fires, but the use of this data can be hampered by cloud cover. Testing to see if we can detect burns with Sentinel 1 data allows us to develop a more robust system that isn’t dependent on cloud free imagery.

The success of these projects depends on the input of time and knowledge from our Earth Observation team: Duncan Blake, Karen Frake and Andy Scobie and advice from habitat specialists and Area staff.

Philippa Vigano is our Innovative Technologies Programme Manager.

Do you have students looking for ideas for Masters projects? Sarah Hutcheon

SNH has produced a list of possible Masters projects for students relating to our work. The topic ideas range from the impact of burning on habitats or the effectiveness of beaver mitigation measures to reviewing carbon assessment tools, reviewing wind farm visualisations or looking at the impacts of green infrastructure.

Masters projects can be of benefit to SNH in helping us fill our strategic evidence needs. We regularly get contacted by universities or students seeking topics for studentships and so we have compiled a list of potential projects and set up a central route in for enquiries about topics on the list.

We don’t provide any funding towards projects but can provide some staff time to discuss and develop project ideas. SNH staff may also be available to co-supervise a project. We ask that initial contact is made by university supervisors, to ensure time is spent discussing projects that are supported by the relevant university supervisor. Feedback from universities is that students often appreciate undertaking a project with a tangible link to the work of SNH.

You can see the list of projects on our website: https://www.nature.scot/about-snh/working-us/placement-schemes/potential-masters-projects

If you are a university supervisor interested in following up on one of these project areas then please contact [email protected]. You will then be put in touch with the relevant member of staff involved in the subject area.

Research Reports Published in May and June 2020

Research Report 1076: Designing a monitoring scheme for mountain hare (Lepus timidus) in Scotland This is a technical report that analyses existing population data sources to provide the basis for developing a new bespoke national monitoring scheme for mountain hares.

Research Report 1191: Designing a monitoring scheme for mountain hare (Lepus timidus) in Scotland – assessing landowner support across the Central Highlands This report builds on the recommendations in SNH Research Report 1076: Designing a monitoring scheme for mountain hare (Lepus timidus) in Scotland. It reports on the findings of a questionnaire survey undertaken in 2019 amongst estates and major land-holdings in the Central Highlands, in which the level of support for a monitoring scheme is assessed.

Research Report 1203: Rannoch Moor riparian habitat survey A survey report, identifying areas of non-qualifying habitats for tree establishment /planting along the River Ba between the West Highland Way and A82(T) on Rannoch Moor SAC. The survey identified these non-qualifying habitats in a 50m corridor either side of the river.

Research Report 1097 - Review of Wester Ross NSA scenic photos project

This report has been written to review the 'Wester Ross Scenic Photos' project three years after it began. The project was set up in the Wester Ross National Scenic Area (NSA) to see if citizen science fixed-point photography could be used to complement formal monitoring of NSAs. It tested a variation of the method used in the Cairngorms National Park "Scenic Post" project. This review also considers a selection of similar projects to explore what makes a successful fixed point photography citizen science project.

Research Report 1204 - Ben Wyvis SAC/SSSI/NNR repeat herbivore impact assessment 2019

A repeat survey of herbivore impacts on Ben Wyvis Special Area for Conservation following a reduction in herbivore numbers (sheep and deer). Herbivore impacts have reduced over much of the site compared with previous surveys. Remaining impacts are largely due to deer and report highlights where more targeted culling may reduce impacts where still damaging. The survey results will be used by SNH and site managers to improve and maintain the site in good condition by targeting culls of red deer.

Ardnamurchan and East Loch Shiel DMGs woodland profile surveys and HIA reports

SNH has a statutory role to ensure that deer are managed sustainably. In 2016 Ardnamurchan and East Loch Shiel Deer Management Groups (DMGs) were assessed amongst the poorest performing and so further investigation was needed to assess impacts from deer or other herbivores within designated sites in these DMG areas to help understand the scale and urgency of issues related to deer management and consider the best approach to resolve these. It is recognised that the performance of both these DMGs has improved since the 2016 assessment. Nine in depth surveys were carried out in 2018 involving woodland profile surveys and/or herbivore impact assessment covering woodland, blanket bog, upland and saltmarsh features on designated sites within these two DMGs.

Research Report 1178 - A woodland profile survey and assessment of herbivore impacts within the Doire Donn Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Research Report 1179 - A woodland profile survey and assessment of herbivore impacts within the Ardgour Pinewoods Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Research Report 1180 - A woodland profile survey and assessment of herbivore impacts within the Kentra Bay and Moss Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Research Report 1181 - A woodland profile survey and assessment of herbivore impacts within the Ardnamurchan Deer Management Group part of the Sunart Special Area of Conservation (SAC) and Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Research Report 1182 - A woodland profile survey and assessment of herbivore impacts within the East Loch Shiel Deer Management Group part of the Sunart Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Research Report 1183 - A woodland profile survey and assessment of herbivore impacts within the Morvern Deer Management Group part of the Sunart Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Research Report 1184 - Assessment of herbivore impacts at Ben Hiant, Sunart SSSI

News

Congratulations to SAC member Professor Jerry Wilson on being appointed Director of Science, leading the RSPB’s Centre for Conservation Science, to Professor Juliet Vickery appointed CEO of the British Trust for Ornithology (one of Juliet’s first posts was working with SNH as recreation ecologist), and to SAC Expert Panel member Professor Rob Ogden on being awarded a personal chair in conservation science at the University of Edinburgh.

We bid farewell to our Director of People and Nature, Sally Thomas, on 6th November and wish her an enjoyable so-called retirement. We are currently recruiting for a Director of Nature and Climate Change https://www.nature.scot/current-vacancy-director-nature-and-climate-change

Abi Gardner Biodiversity and Climate Change Engagement Officer

I grew up in a London commuter town in Hertfordshire, fairly spoilt with both the capital and rolling fields on my door step. Following my love of geography, I travelled north for my undergrad, undertaking my Geography BSc at the University of Manchester. Depending on which way you look at it, I either sat on the fence or took an interdisciplinary approach, taking an 12 equal number of physical and human geography modules, titling myself as an environmental geographer. Growing up with family in East Lothian, I conducted my dissertation on a childhood favourite, North Berwick Law – conducting an exploratory investigation into the factors effecting grassland plant distribution, abundance and diversity.

I’ve never had a dream job, and after three years studying, I still wasn’t sure what route I wanted or could take. The first cohort to have thirty plus grand worth of student debt over their heads, like many of my fellow students, I returned home. For the next year and a half I worked at my local opticians saving up and deciding on what to do next. I had a feeling of duty to work in the environmental sector, and missed studying and research. So I applied to do an MSc and with seven month before needing to start, I took off on a world trip, taking on 12 countries from Australia and New Zealand, to Chile, all the way up to Mexico. I did a couple of week’s stint in the Costa Rican jungle, conducting a number of ecological surveys including monkeys, big cats, birds, amphibians and reptiles, and turtles.

Two weeks after I returned to the UK I packed up and moved to Edinburgh to start my MSc in Ecosystem Services. Having spent all my savings gallivanting around rainforests and climbing volcanos, I spent the next two years studying part time and doing any work that paid. While this led to some not so great work in hospitality, it also led to some great posts including seasonal ecologist positions for a couple of consultancies – checking for bats, water voles and newts around Glasgow and Lanarkshire, and monitoring deer grazing pressures on the tops of some of the highlands monros. I also worked as an Engagement Officer for the Have you got the bottle? Deposit Return Scheme campaign at Edinburgh Zoo and Blair Drummond Safari Park, and organised a couple of conferences for the Ecosystem Services Community Scotland (ESCom) and the Centre of Sustainable Forests and Landscapes (CSFL).

As the two years came to an end, I began writing my dissertation. Wanting to learn a new skill, I set about working out whether using ecoacoustics for biodiversity monitoring and assessment is a viable option for conservation practitioners in the UK. I spent the summer of 2019 getting up at 3.30am to drive to various moorland, coastal, wetland, farmland and urban green space sites across south Scotland recording birds at dawn chorus. While writing up my 15,000 words in the following months, I spent one afternoon procrastinating by applying to a couple of SNH’s graduate posts. After seeing my peers, who graduated a year before me, struggle to find any environmental work, I was incredibly surprised to get a spot.

Two weeks after submitting my dissertation I started at Silvan House, as the Placemaking Support Officer in the People and Places team. My team and I worked to mainstream green infrastructure and urban nature-based solutions in planning and development, ensuring we design more resilient places for people and nature as we mitigate and adapt to climate change. With little prior knowledge of the planning system, it was a quick learning curve to get up-to-date on all the relevant policies and acts. As well as my work on placemaking, I joined the Young Employee Panel and became involved in the Climate Change Programme through setting up SLiCE. Outside of SNH, I have also joined the 2050 Climate Group as one of their young leaders on the Young Leaders Development Programme. As I’ve got more and more involved in promoting youth engagement in decision-making, and pushing for more action of climate change within SNH, I’m very pleased to say that I have secured the recent post of Biodiversity and Climate Change Engagement Officer. With exciting opportunities such as COP 26 coming to Glasgow, I’m keen to continue working on youth engagement and promoting the link between biodiversity and climate change across Scotland.