Africa Riskview END of SEASON REPORT | MALI (2019)

Africa RiskView END OF SEASON REPORT | MALI (2019)

This Africa RiskView End of Season Report is a publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). The report discusses Africa RiskView’s estimates of rainfall, drought and population affected, comparing them to information from the ground and from external sources. It also provides the basis of a validation exercise of Africa RiskView, which is conducted in each country at the end of an insured season. This exercise aims at reviewing the performance of the model and ensuring that the country’s drought risk is accurately reproduced by Africa RiskView for drought monitoring and insurance coverage. The End of Season reports are also being continuously refined with a view to providing early warning to ARC member countries.

Highlights:

Rainfall: • In general, the performance of the 2019 rainy season was benchmark WRSI values at the end of the 2019 agricultural sea- good with normal to above normal cumulative rainfall for most son. parts of the country. However, localised areas in south- Affected Populations: western Mali, notably Kayes, Yélimané, Bafoulabé, Keniéba, • Africa RiskView estimates that around 150,000 people were Nioro, Diéma and Kita experienced below normal cumulative affected by drought conditions in localised areas especially in rainfall at the beginning of the season. Bourem, Djenné, Diré, south-western Mali, this figure remains below the modelled Gao, Macina and Ménaka have experienced early cessation historical average of around 726,000 people. The highest pro- with very little rain for the month of October. portion of people affected by drought as modelled by Africa Drought: RiskView was in Diema, Kita, Macina, Nara and Nioro. • The end-of-season WRSI values were in line with the bench- RISK POOL mark selected by the country in most parts of Mali, except for • Due to the overall good performance of the season and de- Kayes, Yélimané, Djenné, Ménaka and Nioro where a signifi- spite localised drought impacts in south-western Mali, the trig- cant below benchmark WRSI values recorded. Tominian, Koro, ger point for a pay-out from ARC Ltd was not reached at the Douentza, Bandiagara, Mopti, San, Gourma-Rharous, Yorosso, end of the 2019 agricultural season. Yanfolila, Barouéli and Bla recorded a not so significant below

Rainfall The rainy season in Mali starts from May and ends in November. and Goundam. In the southern parts of Mali, 200 mm to over 300 During the 2019 season, the cumulative rainfall totals varied mm of above long-term average rainfall was received during the significantly across the country from as low as 75 mm in Tom- 2019 season particularly in San, Kita, Bankass, Sikasso, Kati, Niono, bouctou to as high as 1175 mm in Yanfolila. The northern part of Kolondiéba, Yorosso, Kadiolo, Bougouni, Koulikoro, Koutiala, Mali received less rain with less than 200 mm of rain recorded in Barouéli, Keniéba, Dioïla, Ségou, Bla, Kangaba and Yanfolila (Fig 2). Abeïbara, Goundam, Tessalit, Tin-Essako and Tombouctou. Most Regarding the temporal distribution of the rains, an analysis of parts of the country received a cumulative rainfall between 600 dekadal (10-day) rainfall estimates suggests that at national and and 1000 mm. The highest rainfall between 1000 mm and 1200 regional level, the season started on time in May, and progressed mm was recorded in Kati, Koutiala, Dioïla, Kolondiéba, Kadiolo, with normal to above normal rainfall until the end of the season. Bougouni, Sikasso, Kangaba, Keniéba and Yanfolila (Fig 1). Com- However, localised areas in south-western Mali notably Kayes, pared to the long-term average (1983-2018), satellite rainfall Yélimané, Bafoulabé, Keniéba, Nioro, Diéma and Kita experienced estimates suggest that normal to above normal rains were re- below normal cumulative rainfall at the beginning of the season. ceived through-out the country expect in the northern part of the The season ended earlier than normal in Bourem, Djenné, Diré, country–where below normal rains experienced in Tombouctou Gao, Macina and Ménaka, with below normal rainfall in October (Fig 11 - Fig 22).