Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project Ship traffic information sheet

The Fraser is responsible for ensuring that ’s largest port is ready for growing trade and the ships that trade will bring. The Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project is a proposed container terminal in Delta, B.C. that is needed to ensure Canada is able to meet its trade objectives through the mid- to late-2030s. The project is currently undergoing a federal environmental assessment by an independent review panel.

Ship traffic and the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project

In 2015, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority Rupert. The number of regular services to Pacific submitted to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Northwest ports will not change if Roberts Bank Agency the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project Terminal 2 is built. Environmental Impact Statement, which considered • The total number of container ships that serve the impact of the project within a defined scope set container terminals will be the out by the agency. At the request of the agency, the same, whether or not Roberts Bank Terminal 2 port authority also submitted the Marine Shipping is built. What will change is the size of the ships, Addendum in 2015, which assessed project-related which will be slightly larger on average if the shipping outside of the port authority’s jurisdiction in project proceeds, and the amount of cargo loaded the Salish Sea. and unloaded in Vancouver, which will increase by In developing those documents, we estimated the approximately 33 per cent. number of ships expected as a result of the Roberts • As a result of industry shipping trends, the 2018 Bank Terminal 2 Project. Since then, there have been study forecasts fewer overall ship calls to the developments in the container shipping industry, such Port of Vancouver in 2035 than there were in as an accelerated trend toward larger ship sizes and 2017, with or without Roberts Bank Terminal 2, the overbuilding of shipping capacity, which led to the despite an increase in container volumes. This is demise of some shipping companies and the formation a continuation of the trend of declining container of new service alliances among others, all of which ship calls and larger ships at the Port of Vancouver motivated us to seek validation of our earlier estimates. since around 2005. • Though the total number of ships calling on the Results of 2018 container ship call study Port of Vancouver will not be affected by Roberts The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority commissioned Bank Terminal 2, its construction will result in Mercator International1 to provide a forecast of a higher number of container ships calling on container ship traffic travelling through the Salish Sea Roberts Bank terminals and fewer calling on and serving ports, with or without Vancouver’s inner harbour and the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project. terminals. Using forecasts for overall container volumes provided • If Roberts Bank Terminal 2 is not built, increasing by Ocean Shipping Consultants, Mercator provided import demand for container cargo by Canadians the following key findings and conclusions about ship will go through U.S. ports. This would result in numbers: higher costs, higher transportation emissions and unrealized economic opportunity, including jobs, • Alliances, or groups of shipping lines, work for Canadians. together to each offer regular, generally weekly, service to Pacific Northwest ports, including the ports of Vancouver, Seattle/Tacoma and Prince 1Mercator International is a consulting agency with experts in the global transportation sector. They have extensive experience working with stakeholders from port authorities, ocean carriers, terminal operators and cargo owners around the world.

1 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority | RBT2 | Ship traffic | November 2018 Container shipping alliances How container ship services operate Three international shipping alliances, made up of Ship services are routes developed by shipping line individual shipping companies, have formed in recent alliances that allow the alliance to call ports on regular, years to more efficiently use their ships by operating usually weekly, schedules. The alliances structure regular-scheduled services around the world. This is routes and schedules in ways that make the most not unlike airline company alliances, which have been sense to them and their customers, based on strategic, common for years. These alliances deploy a number of commercial and volume drivers. Ultimately, their goal is regular services to Pacific Northwest ports from Asia, to maximize the efficient use of their ship assets. Europe and Australia.

International ocean carrier alliances

The Alliance Ocean Alliance 2M + H

Example of a single container shipping alliance service route

Port o ancoer Port o Tacoma ajor sian orts

CONTAINER SHIP SERVICE ROUTE R RRT sia to ort merica

ort merica to sia R STT T

ASIA NORTH AMERICA B T R T SS S S

STT

T

Alliance continuously operates 1 SHIP CALL PER WEEK at the Port of Vancouver, 6–8 SHIPS on average

2 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority | RBT2 | Ship traffic | November 2018 Implications of the 2018 study on the 2015 documents For the purposes of the environmental assessment of The 2015 documents did consider the changes from the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project, we submitted the project on overall container ship traffic to the Port the Environmental Impact Statement and the Marine of Vancouver and Pacific Northwest ports, but did Shipping Addendum in 2015, and assumed that the not consider the effects of various shipping alliances terminal would be operating at 100 per cent capacity that had yet to take shape, nor the changes in traffic in 2030. This allowed us to take a conservative resulting from ship size increases. approach to the assessment of the potential environmental effects of the project on the marine The 2018 container ship call study assumes the shipping and project areas. Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project is fully operational in 2035, in line with current construction timelines, and considers how ship services to Pacific Northwest ports will be affected by a new terminal at Roberts Bank.

Marine shipping and project areas

BRRR

Proose Roberts Bank T 2 Terminal 2 Project

Port o ancoer container terminals RSR RR enterm

2 anterm

raser rre ocks RBRTS B eltaort ANAA arine siin area N A ancoer raser Port torit ST ST naiational jrisiction

VANV AN ST B ST

ST ST ST

3 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority | RBT2 | Ship traffic | November 2018 Implications for the 2015 environmental impact statement

The 2018 study concludes that ship calls to Port of Vancouver container terminals at Roberts Bank will increase with the project but by a smaller amount than was assessed in the 2015 Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Environmental Impact Statement, due to the increased use of larger ships.

Annual ship calls at Roberts Bank container terminals

2015 EIS* 2018 Study 2018 Study 2030 2035 without 2035 with RBT2 RBT2

Deltaport 260 364 234

Roberts Bank Terminal 2 260 0 234

Total annual container ship calls 520 364 4682 at Roberts Bank terminals

Roberts Bank annual container 4.80 2.19 4.33 throughput (millions of TEUs)

*EIS stands for Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Environmental Impact Statement.

Implications for the marine shipping addendum

The 2018 study concludes that there will be no larger ships were made in 2017 for Asian, European increase in the number of container ship transits in and Australian shipping services to North America, the marine shipping area (Salish Sea), with or without including the Pacific Northwest. the project, and the same number of container ship services, using slightly larger ships, will visit the Port of The increase in ship size is not expected to alter the Vancouver. conclusions of the effects assessment presented in the marine shipping addendum because ships in the Further, the 2018 study predicts that larger ships will range of 9,000 to 13,000 TEUs are predominantly be arriving sooner than originally predicted in the 2015 represented by the same ship class (Large Post- marine shipping addendum, stating that orders for Panamax) that was assessed in the 2015 documents.

2 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority assumes that ship calls are evenly distributed between Deltaport and Roberts Bank Terminal 2 due to equal terminal capacity.

4 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority | RBT2 | Ship traffic | November 2018 Total weekly container ship services to Port of Vancouver (2035) WITHOUT RBT2 WITH RBT2

7 Roberts Bank 6 2 Fraser River 9 Roberts Bank 5 Burrard Inlet 1 Fraser River

Source: Mercator International

Types of container ships calling weekly at Roberts Bank container terminals (2035) WITHOUT RBT2 WITH RBT2

Post-Panamax PPX 1 0 <9,000 TEUs

Large PPX 4 3 9,000 – <13,000 TEUs

Neo-Panamax NPX 1 4 13,000 – <15,000 TEUs

Ultra-Large ULCS 1 2 15,000 – 18,000 TEUs

Weekly total 7 9

Average ship size 12,143 TEUs 12,944 TEUs

Source: Mercator International

For more information Please visit portvancouver.com/RBT2 or call 604.655.9337