Scottish Labour Party Conference - Spring 2011, An Ipsos MORI briefing March 2011 The forthcoming election promises to be closely fought

ƒ With 8 weeks to go before the Holyrood elections, our latest poll shows a close race between Labour and the SNP in the constituency and list votes ƒ In our latest poll, Labour has lost the lead they held in November 2010. However, support for the party is 4 points above the 2007 election result ƒ Four in five Labour supporters say they will vote for the party in both the constituency and list ballots ƒ Based on a uniform swing, Labour would gain two seats at Holyrood, but remain the second largest party behind the SNP Labour neck and neck with SNP on constituency vote

Q. If there were elections to the tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? Others

Lib Dem 4% 10% SNP 37% 13% Conservative

36% Labour Base: all certain to vote = 62% (627). Data collected among 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Labour has lost the lead they held in November

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

Scottish Parliament Election General Election 50

40 37% 36% 30

20 13% 10 10% 4% 0 Mar- Jun-05 Sep- Mar- Jun-06 May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- 05 05 06 07 Year 09 09 10 10 10 11 Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (436); June 2005 (500); Sep 2005 (544); March 2006 (491); June 2006 (444); August 2009 (533); November 2009 (546); February 2010 (581); August 2010 (677); November 2010 (628); February 2011 (627). Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Voting intention for the list seats also reveals a close race Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your second vote? Others

Lib Dem 10% SNP 10% 35%

Conservative 13%

33% Labour Base: all certain to vote = 62% (627). Data collected among 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Four in five Labour supporters will vote for them in both ballots Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your second vote? Those certain to vote Labour in constituency Green Lib Dem Conservative (1%) 4% 5% SNP 8%

Labour

81%

Base: all certain to vote Labour = 36% (204). Data collected among 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 On a uniform swing, Labour would gain two seats from 2007 but would remain second largest party Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your second vote? Greens Lib Dem 11 4 seats SNP Conservative 15 51 Change seats Party seats 2007-2011 SNP +4 Labour +2

48 Conservative -2 seats Lib Dem -5 Green +2 Labour Other -1

Base: all certain to vote = 62% (627). Data collected among 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 has a lower profile among Scots than some other party leaders

ƒ Half of Scots know a lot or a little about Iain Gray, while a quarter say they have not heard of him ƒ Almost one in five Labour supporters have not heard of Iain Gray ƒ Scots are divided over his performance as party leader ƒ The majority of Labour supporters are satisfied with his performance as party leader Iain Gray has the third highest profile of the four main leaders Q. Before this interview, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about…?

% know a great deal/a little Never heard of them Know a great deal

Alex Salmond 88% 4% 50%

Annabel Goldie 17% 63% 17%

Iain Gray 11% 51% 23%

Tavish Scott 7% 45% 28%

Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 The public is divided over his performance as party leader Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing their job as …?

Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Don’t know

Alex Salmond 51% 35% +16 14%

Annabel Goldie 32% 30% +2 38%

Iain Gray -1 33% 33% 34%

Tavish Scott -8 40% 26% 34%

Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Among Labour supporters there is still some lack of awareness and uncertainty Q. Before this interview, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about Iain Gray? Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Iain Gray is doing his job as leader of the Party?

Knowledge among Satisfaction among Labour supporters Labour supporters

Never heard Don’t know of them 15% A great 19% deal 24% Satisfied

23% 58% 18% Heard of but 43% knew nothing Dissatisfied about A little

Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Economy and public services will be key election battleground

ƒ The state of the economy is likely to dominate the campaign, though the key public services are likely to grow in public importance as the election draws nearer ƒ With budget cuts beginning to bite, the issue of public sector spending cuts is now among the top five concerns for Scots ƒ Labour supporters are more likely than average to mention unemployment and the NHS as the most important issues facing Scotland The economy is the number 1 issue of concern for Scots Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today? Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today? Labour (Most + others) supporters Economy/economic situation 36% 31% Education/schools 30% 31% Unemployment/factory closure 29% 34% / lack of industry NHS/hospitals/health care 21% 24% Public spending cuts 18% 21% Crime/law and order/ASB 13% 15% Scottish Independence/constitution/ 8% Devolution 6% Environment/climate change 6% /pollution 4% 5% Housing 6% 5% Local Govt./Council Tax 4%

Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Scots are pessimistic about economic prospects

ƒ Confidence in the UK and Scottish economies have been in decline since last year’s general election ƒ Only one in five Scots believe that the British and Scottish economies will improve in the next year, while over half think they will deteriorate ƒ However there are signs that confidence in the Scottish economy is starting to marginally improve, from -43% in November to -37% now ƒ Labour supporters have been consistently more pessimistic about the prospects for the economy than other party supporters since last year’s General Election The majority of Scots think that both the UK and Scottish economies will worsen over the next year Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

UK economy Scottish economy

Don’t know, 4% Don’t know, 5%

Improve 20% Improve 18%

Worsen 22% 22% Worsen 54% 55% Stay the same Stay the same

Base: All asked about UK economy (510); all asked about Scottish economy (509) Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Optimism grew before the 2010 general election but has fallen away since then Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse) UK economy Scotland's economy % Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish budget improve30 Spending Review approved

20

10

0 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 -10

-20

-30 -34% -40 -37%

-50

Base: All asked about UK economy (510); all asked about Scottish economy (509). Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI The majority of Labour supporters are pessimistic about prospects for the Scottish and UK economies Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

UK economy Scottish economy

Don’t know, 3% Don’t know, 5% Improve Improve 16% 16%

19% Stay the 20% same Stay the same 62% 59% Worsen Worsen

Base: Labour supporters asked about UK economy (131); Labour supporters asked about Scottish economy (175). Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 And have consistently been the most pessimistic about the Scottish economy since the election Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse over next 12 months?(% improve minus % worse) Con Lab Lib SNP % Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish budget improve50 Spending Review approved 40 30 20 10 0 -10Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 -20 -24% -30 -31% -31% -40 -43% -50 -60

Base: All asked about Scottish economy (509). Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011 For further information contact: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] on 0131 220 5699

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