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Supplemento al numero odierno de la Repubblica Sped. abb. postale art. 1 legge 46/04 del 27/02/2004 — Roma MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008 Copyright © 2008 The New York Times FINANCIAL CRISIS ILL THE DOWN market never end? For months, policy makers around the world have tried bailouts, interest rate As Hormones Go, cuts, anything ESSAY they could think of, really, to bring JUDITH H. DOBRZYNSKI global markets out of their deep- ening depression. Once in a while, So Go Markets the markets do move up — only to fall again. Nothing seems to work for long. Perhaps there’s a reason that every- one has overlooked: hormones. If a research paper published earlier this year is correct, traders have be- come prisoners of their endocrine sys- tems — testosterone, the elixir of male aggressiveness, during a bull market; cortisol, a steroid that helps the body deal with stress, when fear takes over. The study suggests that raging hormones might explain why the men who rule the global markets send them up when they’re winning, and down when they panic. One investment strategist intui- tively grasped the situation when he recently told The New York Times: “Normally markets are driven by fear and greed. Now it’s fear and fear.” In other words, instead of a rhythm of testosterone alternating with cortisol, it’s been cortisol and more cortisol for weeks. Actually there was a step in be- tween — greed and greed, the bubble period. That’s when traders were making a lot of money, which made them pump out extra testosterone, grow overconfident and overcompeti- tive, and take on more and more Con tin ued on Page 6 SCOTT OLSON/GETTY IMAGES WORLD TRENDS LIVING: THE WAY WE EAT ARTS & STYLES Congo’s riches, Chocolate helps The genius who looted by renegades. III bolster Indian pride. VII assassinated art. VIII INTELLIGENCE:Pausing in Havana, Page 2. PUBBLICITÁ Married to the Mob In theory, the 21st century is marked karova, a lawyer and executive director of Somalia: seizing freighters in poorly by 21st-century threats, like global ter- of the Bulgarian Judges Association, patrolled waters of the Indian Ocean ror networks and sophisticated cyber told Doreen Carvajal of the Times that — most recently, a Saudi-owned super- attacks. But in many places, the prob- lawyers were well aware of judges with tanker, the largest ship ever hijacked — lems are more familiar, parochial and criminal ties. they have built a lucrative business col- old-fashioned: drug dealing, “How do we know?” Ms. lecting ransoms in a region otherwise prostitution, kidnapping and LENS Pushkarova said. “They have lacking for opportunity. corruption, all the hallmarks of marriage connections or And in the eastern Congo, as Lydia organized crime. business ties with organized Polgreen reports in this issue (Page In developing countries, rack- criminal bosses. They are 3), a tin mining operation run by a ren- eteering thrives on instability. neighbors.” egade army brigade provides employ- But it can be hard to eradicate In parts of Mexico, criminal ment to hordes of miners and porters, even in more prosperous and gangs fueled by the booming and a certain level of assurance to their well-regulated places. drug trade have diversified into customers. In Japan, for example, the kidnapping for ransom. The na- “To be honest, it is better for us that criminal syndicates known as yakuza tion’s affluent families have responded they are there,” said Bakwe Selomba, have been tolerated as regulators of by hiring swarms of bodyguards for an ore purchaser. “I can send my buy- gambling, sex trades and other shad- themselves and their children, donning ers walking through the jungle with lots owy enterprises, so long as they do designer clothes made of bulletproof of money, but nobody will touch them as not disturb the peace. But in the city of material and, in some cases, leaving the long as we pay the tax.” Kurume, residents protested when a country altogether. The yakuza also claim to promote factional feud among the Dojinkai, the “There’s an exodus, and it’s all about stability in Japan. But in Kurume, No- local yakuza, led to shootouts in the insecurity,” Guillermo Alonso Meneses, buyuki Shinozuka, 54, the Dojinkai’s street. As Norimitsu Onishi reported an anthropologist at the Colegio de la acting chairman, was philosophical in The Times, more than 600 alarmed Frontera Norte in Tijuana, told Marc about the lawsuit his group faces — neighbors recently went to court to Lacey of The Times. “A psychosis has and about the place of organized crime try to evict the Dojinkai from their six- developed. There’s fear of getting kid- in any society. “It’s up to the state,” he story Kurume headquarters. napped or killed.” told Mr. Onishi. “If the state feels it no That kind of civic action is less likely But in places where there is little longer needs us, it can pass a law ban- in a country like Bulgaria, where wide- government to speak of, anything ning the yakuza. But if it feels even a spread mob influence is assumed to organized can look like a boon, even little bit that it still needs us, then we’ll infect the legal system itself. Iva Push- crime. Consider the audacious pirates find some way to survive.” Repubblica NewYork II MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008 OPINION & COMMENTARY EDITORIALS OF THE TIMES INTELLIGENCE/ROGER COHEN In Havana, Time to Reflect A Bailout in Need HAVANA, Cuba It is also less than free, If there’s a place on and that I cannot accept. Of Some Clarity earth untouched by the Yet, at a moment when global financial crisis, it’s the West, in one way or Fidel Castro’s Cuba. As another, is assessing the 50th anniversary of the huge cost of excess, A month into the Bush administra- consumers and small businesses. the revolution that swept I found myself feeling tion’s $700 billion bank bailout, the He has diverted another $40 billion him to power on January more indulgent toward effort has become as fractured as the of the fund to American International 1, 1959, approaches, Fidel ailing Fidel than I would ad hoc rescues that it was supposed to Group, the reckless insurance compa- presides still over his have thought possible. replace. As a result, the modest easing ny that had already received $85 billion quietly decaying social- His obstinate pursuit the bailout initially brought about in the in federal assistance. If government ist experiment. of an unfashionable idea credit markets is now being reversed officials know where all that money is Stress inhabits the has driven many Cubans over doubts about the Treasury’s stew- going, they haven’t shared their knowl- wired societies of mod- to flight, still more to mis- ardship of the plan. edge with the public. ern capitalism. From ery. The Cuban economy The rates for loans between banks Mr. Paulson disappointed investors Hong Kong to Houston, makes no sense. But Fi- have begun edging up again, and con- by ditching the plan to buy up banks’ there is little relief from del’s obsession has also sumer borrowing costs are also up — bad assets. Instead, he expanded the the pressure to have instilled forms of pride, that is, assuming consumers can find a bailout to include investing money in more. As there is not civility, altruism, educa- bank willing to lend. nonbank financial companies, like much to have in sagging tion and humor that are President-elect Barack Obama’s GMAC, the lending arm of General Cuba, that particular woven into the frayed transition team is reportedly planning Motors, and the other carmakers’ angst does not exist. In fabric of Cuban life and how the new administration will better lending units. He also announced that its place hovers the de- constitute its strange re- manage the bailout. But two months is the Treasury and the Federal Reserve pression of idle days. silience. a long time to wait while the Bush Trea- were considering a plan to use taxpayer Masonry sags in love- ASSOCIATED PRESS I sympathize with sury burns through the bailout billions, money to jump-start consumer lending ly Havana. Paint peels. Life in Cuba is very hard and doctrinaire, but it has been every Cuban who longs with little to show in terms of enhanced via credit cards, car loans and student The Atlantic pounds spared the worst gyrations of the global financial crisis. to escape this beautiful stability and even less in terms of en- the Malecón, perhaps island. But I thank Cuba hanced confidence. the most beautiful ur- for allowing me to press Recently Treasury Secretary Henry ban waterfront in the world, sending United States auto museum. the pause button. We all need that from Paulson outlined a complex new bailout eruptions of spray over the granite They have also, at great cost to them- time to time. strategy intended to promote consumer As the strategy shifts, wall. People gaze. Their minimal sal- selves, afforded the rushing world The shock of being sucked into Ha- borrowing. Mr. Paulson defended this aries buy little. There is no incentive a place of strange silence in which to vana’s frozen half-life is matched only latest iteration, saying he would never investors and the public to work harder. Conversation is the reflect. There is no visual clutter in by the shock of emerging from it, back apologize for changing his approach as grow doubtful. sole thriving commodity as the city Cuba. Yes, there are countless exhor- to Starbucks, and Christmas carols the facts change.

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