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2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (30+ Days Later Update)

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2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (30+ Days Later Update) 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 20, 2021 2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (30+ days later update) *Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. 2-20-2021 UPDATE I went back and watched Trevor Lawrence tape again. Why? Well, so many people swear he’s generational, and I saw/scouted anything but that in January – I wanted to be sure I wasn’t nuts. Couldn’t hurt to do a second look. The funny thing is… After my re-study began, I started to see more and more analysts starting to question how good Trevor Lawrence really is. I was shocked. I am shocked. How is it that a guy that was THEIR ‘generational talent’ for the past two years now be suspect two months after his college career ends? Top guys get some questioning as we go, but I’ve not seen an analyst revolt (a mild revolt) like this in a while/ever…on a guy everyone was calling generational. Usually, everyone just drinks the Kool Aid and never adjusts (they still pine/have hope for/defend Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold). There was a very small drip of dissent a few weeks ago, but that drip has turned into a very small stream…and water is starting to collect up. I never thought Lawrence as the #1 overall pick would be in question – but it’s happening. Some of the fall is people are falling in love with Zach Wilson (as they should). Some of it is people just reasonably questioning the Lawrence resume and tape in big games (as they should). I do think, right now, the chance that Lawrence is NOT the #1 pick in 2021 has gone from what was 0.0% chance in 2019 to 2020, to something above 0% as of Feb. 2021. And the dissent is growing…the tear down of Zach Wilson hasn’t happened yet (and we’ll get into that with my Wilson update coming tomorrow). I, for one, am shocked at this Lawrence questioning. I’m pleased it’s happening, because it should…but I’m confused because the football analysts typically do not act like this. We could be setting up for a moment where Wilson leaps past Lawrence a la Baker Mayfield went ahead of Sam Darnold for a few (and eventually in reality as a pick), as the entirety of the big (dumb) football media (ESPN and NFL Network types) whined about it. Be that as it may, let me share with you my re-study of Lawrence… I re-watched his games against Ohio State (2019 and 2020) and against LSU (2019) again…the games where he faced the most NFL prospect-laded secondaries (you would agree?). In those three games, he went (1-2) and really should’ve lost all three games. He completed 58.4% of his passes (not good) and had 4 TDs/1 INT total in the three games with his best stretch of numbers being in the 2020-21 playoff College Football Metrics| 1 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 20, 2021 blowout loss to Ohio State where Lawrence racked numbers against soft defensive play in the final 2+ quarters. Regardless of the numbers/output, just watching his play – I feel worse about him now than I did coming off my first study in early January 2021. Some of the things concerning me… -- He’s so herky-jerky and happy-footed as a passer…it’s annoying to watch. He rarely ever drops back in the pocket, plants his feet calmly, reads the defense, and steps into a rocket throw in tight windows. No. Lawrence is more constantly shimmying around without much pressure, or fake running to set up a cool screen pass. He’s like a hyper puppy playing quarterback. You don’t see that style/mannerisms in the NFL…among the successful QBs. -- When there’s any pressure at all, he tends to lean back and throw off his back foot – and then his arm is average speed on passes that way with poor accuracy. I am seeing a lot of signs/markers that Lawrence is very uncomfortable in the pocket (which reminds me of Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold scouting – good when everything is good). Everyone looks like a boss in a clean pocket with all day to throw against inferior teams. But it’s a scouting ‘tell’ when you see signs of a scared QB against worthy opponents – and I see signs of it with Lawrence. Think I’m just throwing words around to sound like some scouting intellect? Think that’s not a real thing? Recall or watch Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama…and then playing with the Dolphins. It’s like two different quarterbacks. How is that possible? Strip away the Alabama advantages…and then face scary monster NFL fronts – and you get Tua, of the ‘tank for Tua’ for two years (so said all of football) and then a year into his NFL career all I see everyday on my Google homepage are articles about Miami trading FOR another QB and ditching Tua. What happens if you strip Lawrence’s big Clemson (over weak ACC teams) advantages away and put him with the rebuilding Jaguars or Jets in 2021? -- At times, Lawrence has a big, weird wind-up to throw the ball – almost like a baseball pitcher throwing a pass. That extra time from wind-up to release in the NFL could be a subtle/minor issue as well. -- He may not be as fast as we think he is. If he runs a 4.7+ 40-time he is more Carson Wentz fast than if he runs a 4.6 or faster and is more Justin Herbert or Andrew Luck fast (Luck had really good speed for his size). I think Lawrence is more 4.7+. He ran the ball a lot (more) against better defenses in college. Why? I think it fits the ‘scared’ motif…he’s taking off instead of sitting in the pocket. He doesn’t have great pocket patience – because he rarely had to with Clemson’s dominance over the generic ACC. Once facing the big boys, the passer numbers fell, and the rushing numbers increased. College Football Metrics| 2 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 20, 2021 Lawrence ran the ball 10 or more times in a game the past two years, six times. The opponents when this occurred: Playoff game vs. Ohio State (2019) = 16 rushes ACC title game vs. Notre Dame (2020) = 14 rushes North Carolina (2019) = 11 rushes…a game they won 21-20, and UNC failed on a 2-point attempt to win it with 1-minute left. Lawrence had one of his worst games of his 2019 season. Louisville (2019) = 10 rushes…a blowout win for Clemson Playoff game vs. Ohio State (2020/21) = 10 carries…for -8 yards. …otherwise, he ran the ball in games about 3-7 times a game over his career. With all the bad news, there is still good news… Lawrence reminds me so much of Carson Wentz…and Wentz had all the advantages in college too, playing with THEE most dominant college team in FCS by a mile (North Dakota State). Wentz failed as a rookie…there were concerns. BUT Wentz had all the tools (nice size and some quickness and enough arm) and became a solid NFL QB. I think Lawrence has many tools and can be made into a plausible NFL QB (like Wentz). Lawrence is not terrible…just not ‘generational’. I’m not updating any other section below (all the original). I will update his grade if needed from his Pro Day, but he just had labrum surgery and has an excuse not to run, etc., now. So, I don’t know that there will be a potential update of our computer model grade because of new data coming in. =========================== 1-04-2021 Original: We need to talk. And you may need to sit down for this. Looking at the entire scouting case here partway into my studies -- the background, the data, the tape…my first reaction? Trevor Lawrence is not nearly as good as I thought he was. And the deeper I go, the more I’m starting to believe – we’ve got some real issues here. Trevor Lawrence is not as good as you’ve been told he is. College Football Metrics| 3 2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 20, 2021 Do you need a paper bag to breathe into? Go ahead, I’ll wait. And keep the bag handy, because… I don’t want you to interpret that statement as…are you saying he’s only an ‘A’ not an A+ then? No. I’m telling you he’s not as good as they’ve said and that there are real problems lurking (which we’ll get into) – that this A+++, greatest QB prospect THEY (capital THEY is all of the football ruling class/intelligentsia…the analysts, scouts, media, GMs, etc.) have ever seen is actually less can’t miss, and more decent/OK/good and needs work…and that his issues might not be fixable – might even be a semi-fatal flaw. I’m not even sure he’s the best QB prospect in this draft and I’m not sure he’s going to get above an 8.0/B-level grade in our scouting models when it is all said and done.
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