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Home , 2021 NFL Draft, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 20, 2021

2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB , Clemson (30+ days later update)

*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

2-20-2021 UPDATE

I went back and watched Trevor Lawrence tape again. Why? Well, so many people swear he’s generational, and I saw/scouted anything but that in January – I wanted to be sure I wasn’t nuts. Couldn’t hurt to do a second look.

The funny thing is… After my re-study began, I started to see more and more analysts starting to question how good Trevor Lawrence really is. I was shocked. I am shocked. How is it that a guy that was THEIR ‘generational talent’ for the past two years now be suspect two months after his college career ends? Top guys get some questioning as we go, but I’ve not seen an analyst revolt (a mild revolt) like this in a while/ever…on a guy everyone was calling generational. Usually, everyone just drinks the Kool Aid and never adjusts (they still pine/have hope for/defend and ).

There was a very small drip of dissent a few weeks ago, but that drip has turned into a very small stream…and water is starting to collect up. I never thought Lawrence as the #1 overall pick would be in question – but it’s happening. Some of the fall is people are falling in love with (as they should). Some of it is people just reasonably questioning the Lawrence resume and tape in big games (as they should).

I do think, right now, the chance that Lawrence is NOT the #1 pick in 2021 has gone from what was 0.0% chance in 2019 to 2020, to something above 0% as of Feb. 2021. And the dissent is growing…the tear down of Zach Wilson hasn’t happened yet (and we’ll get into that with my Wilson update coming tomorrow). I, for one, am shocked at this Lawrence questioning. I’m pleased it’s happening, because it should…but I’m confused because the football analysts typically do not act like this.

We could be setting up for a moment where Wilson leaps past Lawrence a la went ahead of Sam Darnold for a few (and eventually in reality as a pick), as the entirety of the big (dumb) football media (ESPN and NFL Network types) whined about it.

Be that as it may, let me share with you my re-study of Lawrence…

I re-watched his games against State (2019 and 2020) and against LSU (2019) again…the games where he faced the most NFL prospect-laded secondaries (you would agree?). In those three games, he went (1-2) and really should’ve lost all three games. He completed 58.4% of his passes (not good) and had 4 TDs/1 INT total in the three games with his best stretch of numbers being in the 2020-21 playoff

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blowout loss to Ohio State where Lawrence racked numbers against soft defensive play in the final 2+ quarters.

Regardless of the numbers/output, just watching his play – I feel worse about him now than I did coming off my first study in early January 2021. Some of the things concerning me…

-- He’s so herky-jerky and happy-footed as a passer…it’s annoying to watch. He rarely ever drops back in the pocket, plants his feet calmly, reads the defense, and steps into a rocket throw in tight windows. No. Lawrence is more constantly shimmying around without much pressure, or fake running to set up a cool screen pass. He’s like a hyper puppy playing . You don’t see that style/mannerisms in the NFL…among the successful QBs.

-- When there’s any pressure at all, he tends to lean back and throw off his back foot – and then his arm is average speed on passes that way with poor accuracy. I am seeing a lot of signs/markers that Lawrence is very uncomfortable in the pocket (which reminds me of Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold scouting – good when everything is good).

Everyone looks like a boss in a clean pocket with all day to throw against inferior teams. But it’s a scouting ‘tell’ when you see signs of a scared QB against worthy opponents – and I see signs of it with Lawrence. Think I’m just throwing words around to sound like some scouting intellect? Think that’s not a real thing? Recall or watch at Alabama…and then playing with the Dolphins. It’s like two different . How is that possible? Strip away the Alabama advantages…and then face scary monster NFL fronts – and you get Tua, of the ‘tank for Tua’ for two years (so said all of football) and then a year into his NFL career all I see everyday on my Google homepage are articles about Miami trading FOR another QB and ditching Tua.

What happens if you strip Lawrence’s big Clemson (over weak ACC teams) advantages away and put him with the rebuilding Jaguars or Jets in 2021?

-- At times, Lawrence has a big, weird wind-up to throw the ball – almost like a baseball pitcher throwing a pass. That extra time from wind-up to release in the NFL could be a subtle/minor issue as well.

-- He may not be as fast as we think he is. If he runs a 4.7+ 40-time he is more fast than if he runs a 4.6 or faster and is more Justin Herbert or fast (Luck had really good speed for his size). I think Lawrence is more 4.7+.

He ran the ball a lot (more) against better defenses in college. Why? I think it fits the ‘scared’ motif…he’s taking off instead of sitting in the pocket. He doesn’t have great pocket patience – because he rarely had to with Clemson’s dominance over the generic ACC. Once facing the big boys, the passer numbers fell, and the rushing numbers increased.

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Lawrence ran the ball 10 or more times in a game the past two years, six times. The opponents when this occurred:

Playoff game vs. Ohio State (2019) = 16 rushes

ACC title game vs. Notre Dame (2020) = 14 rushes

North Carolina (2019) = 11 rushes…a game they won 21-20, and UNC failed on a 2-point attempt to win it with 1-minute left. Lawrence had one of his worst games of his 2019 season.

Louisville (2019) = 10 rushes…a blowout win for Clemson

Playoff game vs. Ohio State (2020/21) = 10 carries…for -8 yards.

…otherwise, he ran the ball in games about 3-7 times a game over his career.

With all the bad news, there is still good news…

Lawrence reminds me so much of Carson Wentz…and Wentz had all the advantages in college too, playing with THEE most dominant college team in FCS by a mile (North Dakota State). Wentz failed as a rookie…there were concerns. BUT Wentz had all the tools (nice size and some quickness and enough arm) and became a solid NFL QB. I think Lawrence has many tools and can be made into a plausible NFL QB (like Wentz). Lawrence is not terrible…just not ‘generational’.

I’m not updating any other section below (all the original). I will update his grade if needed from his Pro Day, but he just had labrum surgery and has an excuse not to run, etc., now. So, I don’t know that there will be a potential update of our computer model grade because of new data coming in.

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1-04-2021 Original:

We need to talk. And you may need to sit down for this.

Looking at the entire scouting case here partway into my studies -- the background, the data, the tape…my first reaction? Trevor Lawrence is not nearly as good as I thought he was.

And the deeper I go, the more I’m starting to believe – we’ve got some real issues here.

Trevor Lawrence is not as good as you’ve been told he is.

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Do you need a paper bag to breathe into? Go ahead, I’ll wait. And keep the bag handy, because… I don’t want you to interpret that statement as…are you saying he’s only an ‘A’ not an A+ then? No. I’m telling you he’s not as good as they’ve said and that there are real problems lurking (which we’ll get into) – that this A+++, greatest QB prospect THEY (capital THEY is all of the football ruling class/intelligentsia…the analysts, scouts, media, GMs, etc.) have ever seen is actually less can’t miss, and more decent/OK/good and needs work…and that his issues might not be fixable – might even be a semi-fatal flaw.

I’m not even sure he’s the best QB prospect in this draft and I’m not sure he’s going to get above an 8.0/B-level grade in our scouting models when it is all said and done.

We need to take a moment here. You’re gonna need a minute to be ready to receive this.

Don’t you feel like we all agreed on Lawrence…that the universal case was already settled? It’s so simple – Lawrence is a super-elite, and everyone agrees on it…even I hinted about it last summer in my previews. Am I just being contrarian? Am I just doing the opposite of what THEY say to gain attention? (Why would I want this attention? It’s safer to just agree with your football overlords).

We’ve been lied to.

It’s not the first time, so you’d think we get used to it…but this time the lie was so powerful, so easy to roll with. Clemson is great and always gets to the title games, so how could Lawrence not be great? Every man, woman, and child agrees with it. You can’t disagree with it.

But if I may, I’d like to remind all of us…

The last ‘everyone agrees/no one in their right mind disagrees’ #1 ranked QB prospects in recent history are:

2015 = Jameis Winston…and he was never close to living up to that label.

2018 = Sam Darnold…and he’s a bust. Some liked Baker better, but the heavy majority of football insiders/personnel people loved Darnold over Baker -- and 100% of them thought (agreed, not so much ‘thought’) Darnold would be great regardless of Baker’s ranking.

2019 = Dwayne Haskins… was everyone’s #1 early on before they started mock drafting #1. Haskins was the ‘can’t miss’ guy most of the pre-Draft time. They didn’t think Kyler was the #1/best QB prospect, they only mock drafted him there because they believed Arizona/Kingsbury was going to take him there. When Arizona really did take Kyler on draft day, they all got upset at ‘how they could do this to Josh Rosen/he deserves another year’. Where are those people now?

2020 = Tua Tagovailoa…was thought to be so good that the fans (led by the media) were wanting their teams to ‘tank’ for him. ‘Tank’ for him/Tua? How utterly stupid that was in retrospect -- he’s already been exposed. Why isn’t anyone paying a football price in the media for religiously calling for Tua as a

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god/Savior? The only reason was going to be drafted higher, at the time, in their minds, was due to the Tua injury…if not for that, Tua would/should go #1 overall THEY believed.

The years I skipped in there:

2016 = THEY liked Carson Wentz over but it was not an absolute like Winston or others on this list (ahead).

2017 = DeShone Kizer was THEIR early top QB, but then there was a split decision battle over Kizer- Mahomes-Watson-Trubisky. No absolute EVERYONE knows is the top guy QB this particular year.

It’s very much likely that THEY are wrong about any given QB prospect, no matter who it is. We have to keep that fact…that statistical trend in mind…to begin deprogramming ourselves from the unquestionable notion that Lawrence is an elite/generational QB prospect just because the always- wrong-about-these-things football people insist that THIS time it’s true.

OK, you’re with me…you re-remembered THEIR horrible track record. You’re open to the possibility that Lawrence is not a god, maybe? But now you want to know…how? Why was this crime committed? Exactly how can I state that’s he’s not elite or great? You watched some/a lot of his games…he looks great…and the numbers are nice...how can I say such a thing? Am I just being anti-THEM or is there evidence?

Let me begin with the ‘comp’ that came to my mind when I started watching Trevor Lawrence…Carson Wentz – both physically big, mobile but not a weapon with their feet, but not a stiff either. Decent, not great arm.

More of what I saw in common with Wentz-Lawrence - a lot of nifty screen passes and bubble passes hiding their flaw in college. The flaw being that they were average/worrisome downfield passers and/or readers of defenses under pressure. Lawrence makes a lot of hay throwing screen and swing passes, and nicely set up bubble/tunnel screens to WRs – which is exactly what Wentz did at North Dakota State. You can rack up nice numbers and great Comp. Pct., but a lot of QBs at these dominant college programs could (and do) rack up big numbers. The QB before Wentz at North Dakota State won multiple titles and had even better numbers. Most all of ’s QBs put up numbers. Before Lawrence, , Tahj Boyd had amazing output.

When you have a dominant roster with NFL O-Linemen and NFL weaponry…any decent/good college QB can look amazing. They have a ton of time in the pocket and throw to receivers who are better than the defenders covering them. It’s ‘rigged’ in the favor of powerhouse school QBs. Why do you think Tua Tagovailoa seemed like a god and yet can barely complete a pass over 5 yards competently in the NFL? Why is every Alabama QB ‘a winner’ and some level of NFL Draft prospect? North Dakota State was the ‘Alabama’ of the FCS…they always win the title. They almost always win 13-14-15 games a season – they’ve won eight of the last 9 FCS titles. Carson Wentz, at the time, was just the latest QB to lead the way. Go look at Wentz’s stats in college…not that impressive. Decent QBs working with dominant

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everything around them – it’s why Tua and Haskins can look so good. It’s not a 100% law…I just want to communicate what a huge advantage it is to the QB when everything around them is 10x better than everything opposing them. It’s a little bit of an optical illusion or Wizard of Oz trickery to be uncovered/exposed.

In the 2019 CFB season, Clemson made it to the CFB playoffs. They faced Ohio State and LSU, both teams loaded with NFL talent. In those two games (one Clemson was lucky to win…and the other they got destroyed), Lawrence completed less than 55% in each game. He averaged 51.4% Comp. Pct., 246.5 yards, 1.0 TDs/0.0 INTs per game in the 2019 playoffs.

In the 2020 season, against Ohio State, a blowout loss, Lawrence was suppressed early in the game, but racked up garbage when the game started getting out of hand in the 2nd-half. You watch every play of the 2020-21 Clemson v. Ohio State game, and there is one QB sitting in the pocket throwing all over the field and there is another guy running a high school offense of a ton of screens, swings, slants, and read option keeps/fakes and struggling to throw downfield (hint… the one running the high school offense was Lawrence).

Lawrence did not step up big against Ohio State or LSU last year, but Joe Burrow put his team on his back and was eyepopping. Lawrence then flopped against Ohio State this season…while stepped up big.

If Trevor Lawrence is such a god, why is he not having ‘moments’ against top opponents in the CFB playoffs the past two years? Beating up on Wake Forest and Virginia and Syracuse time and time again is great, nice…he should. But those are games his entire team/unit is 5-10x better than the other schools walking in, and Clemson is favored by 15-20+ points…and they go win by 20+ points. Trevor Lawrence, like Tua Tagovailoa, isn’t walking into the NFL working behind an offensive unit that is 5-10x better than their opponents every week.

The best offensive output of 2020 for Clemson…was arguably the game Lawrence missed (due to COVID) against highly ranked Notre Dame (the first time Clemson faced them) – the backup QB threw for 439 yards (Lawrence hasn’t thrown for that many yards in a game in his career) and 2 TDs/0 INTs in that game while Clemson scored 40 points.

I’m not trying to build a case that Trevor Lawrence is terrible. I am trying to make the case that there are some real concerns/flaws I see here and I see evidence that he is NOT a hands-down/obvious elite NFL QB prospect walking into the league.

When I watch Lawrence in tougher games in 2020, I see three types of passing plays. I started charting them but after a while, I got sick of charting it because it was the same thing over and over again…

#1 Pass Play Occurrence = A drop back for a designed screen/swing pass. The ball travels a safe, short distance and the weapons do a lot of the work Lawrence gets credit for. About half the throws I charted

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(against better teams, before the score got out of hand for either side) were designed, clever, smart, safe screens and swings.

His 2020 game against Miami, Florida was almost unwatchable for me (as a scout looking for greatness at QB) charting all the dinks and dunks – while expecting great things from this supposed generational talent. Then I saw it against Virginia Tech as well…when I was trying to study him against non-Ohio State/LSU level opponents.

#2 Pass Play Occurrence = When Lawrence needs/wants to get the ball downfield, he drops back to pass in the pocket, sets up quickly and is locked onto a receiver the whole time and fires it to them or lofts it long to them…designed quick slants or trying to connect deep against 1-on-1 coverage. But note, when Lawrence throws deep -- he’s more wing-and-a-prayer than accurate assassin.

Neither throw is ‘a great sign’ of a great NFL prospect. I can watch good/solid college QBs throw blindly on slants and float bombs in every conference. I’m looking for evidence of defense-reading assassins in my QB studies...and I don’t see it with Lawrence.

#3 Pass Play Occurrence = Like I just mentioned -- when needing/wanting to go medium or deeper on throws and Lawrence is set up in the pocket he usually has a receiver in mind and throws it there, his head/eyes never move/leave the target – but then there are the times where the quick/pre-designed pass or receiver is not there/open immediately…then the trouble begins…this is when we look for an NFL talent or not. Just about any decent college QB can throw screens and swings and no-read slants.

When Lawrence comes off his pre-designed throw/first read, he’s a very weak QB. I can almost watch Lawrence (against better defenses) on tape and just stare at his head when dropping back in the pocket for a non-scree/swing/bubble throw, and when he sees his first option is not there and he turns his head elsewhere, I can stop the tape and tell you ‘this is going to be trouble’ before letting the tape run again (when the game is still tight/not against prevent defenses or when not taking advantage of awful college opponents).

When Lawrence is forced to play real big boy QB…he panics or fails…a lot…too much so to be considered a ready-made elite NFL QB prospect. In this instance, he either takes off running (which is smart…and a sign he doesn’t want to be in the pocket making second reads) or he throws passes that are inexplicable – like throws 5-10 yards away/off from where the receiver is, or right into the arms of a defender obviously in front of the receiver. And he usually has bad mechanics doing it…a lot of fading back, off the back foot, wobbly flimsy-armed throws (a sign of a problem I see with many ‘hoax’ top QB prospects of the recent past -- they are secretly spooked in any type of muddy pocket, and it makes them rush things into danger).

In the NFL, Lawrence cannot be a star just throwing screens and swings and one-read/no read quick passes. He can be good/OK doing that (a lot of QBs of the past were/are that guy)…you would say ‘game manager’, of sorts, about QBs like this. He could be an average/bad NFL QB/a disappointment playing that style (too predictable for the better-equipped-to-defend-it NFL). He can have stretches of good and

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bad results as a dink and dunker -- but he won’t be a star. He won’t be a Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow or or or Kyler Murray or (to name a few).

Take Herbert for example…similar builds and decent enough foot speed. What makes Justin Herbert great is he stands in the pocket, no matter how muddy, and waits and reads and fires laser beams at the last possible moment. Trevor Lawrence does not do that, at least not in college. He runs from a muddy pocket. And when forced to throw from it he throws leaning away/feet not set and throws non-crisp wobblers and prayers in a panic out towards his same-colored jersey. Seriously, go watch Trevor Lawrence v. Justin Fields from their January 2021 CFB Playoff game…Lawrence played like I preconceived/think Fields plays like (short, safe passes and a lot of read option running…and flimsy downfield throwing) and Fields played like you think Lawrence does (confident in the pocket throwing darts all over).

I watched Herbert in 2020 and my jaw hit the ground about every throw he made. My jaw never moved watching all of Lawrence’s key games during my recent studies – and that’s about the most damning, circumstantial evidence I can give you. I’ve watched a lot of QB tape the past 10+ years, college and pro and if you’ve been with me for a while you know my ‘record’ on these things. Joe Burrow made me go ‘wow’ a lot. Baker Mayfield made me go ‘wow’. made me go ‘wow’, as a runner who could pass. has made me go ‘wow’ at times. I’ve seen ‘wow’ moments/throws. I have no ‘wow’ moments for Trevor Lawrence…my only ‘wow’ is I’m ‘wowed’ by the lack of any ‘wow’ when I was told he’s nothing but ‘wow’.

It feels like I’m blasting Lawrence and painting him as a bust. He probably won’t be a bust. Carson Wentz was not a true bust (until 2020). Wentz is competent, scrappy, decent…especially if behind a great O-Line. The Wentz comp is a better description of Lawrence than painting him as generational talent and better than a Joe Burrow…Lawrence isn’t anywhere close to Joe Burrow’s (or Justin Herbert’s) talent in my book.

Lawrence can be a really solid/OK NFL QB because he has excellent size, a decent arm (if the pocket is clean), experience under the bright lights, and has mobility. You just have to design the offense to suit him, like he had at Clemson – read option, play action, quick, short, safe throws and keep him out of having to win you the game by virtue of his magic. Unless he’s on a team way more dominant than the rest of the NFL, he’s not going to a savior/magician. He will be solid/good/OK. He’s not the next , he just has some looks-like (physically and pre-snap stance) Peyton attributes (before they throw the ball).

The upside for Lawrence is two-fold…he has the size/physicality to work with, and he could improve/get better. And that quick, short, safe passing game fits Urban Meyer to a ‘T’. He might have really good numbers working with an Urban Meyer or equivalent, but if he gets stuck with an old school head coach who tries to make him run a pocket passing game – he’s in trouble. If he worked with Doug Marrone or Vic Fangio or or Mike Tomlin or Adam Gase…Lawrence would be in a lot of NFL trouble (a huge letdown from the lofty expectations).

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Lawrence has physical tools to work with. There are offenses he can do well with. He’s also a great young person…very nice, pretty humble considering it all. Easy going and well-liked and respected. Coachable. A face of the franchise type…except people (an NFL team, the fans) think they’re buying an ‘A+’ when they are getting a solid ‘B’ who might be a nice little ‘B+’ in the end.

When/if Lawrence disappoints…the fans will make excuses at first…and then turn on him (see: The Carson Wentz story).

Trevor Lawrence, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:

- In his final two games of the past two seasons (vs. LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State 2x), Trevor Lawrence averaged:

61.0% Comp. Pct., 1.5 TDs/0.5 INTs, 303.8 yards passing, 59.5 yards rushing, 1.0 rushing TDs per game, (2-2) record.

Lower efficiency passing…decent yardage accumulation in blowouts…more running (because that’s his nature when his first options are locked down by pro prospect CBs). Solid numbers, not killer passer numbers.

- The last two seasons against SEC and the Big Ten: 1.6 TDs/0.4 INTs per game…against the better teams Lawrence hovers around 1-2 passing TDs per game, when the higher end QBs tend to have more TD passes per game…especially when they are on elite teams.

The Trevor Lawrence profile is a very solid-not-elite passer who doesn’t turn the ball over easily and can run for yardage as needed. That’s not a future Hall of Fame profile, but it’s a profile NFL head coaches dream of – they love low turnovers more than they love scoring TDs…it was the Carson Wentz profile, which is a bad word today but just a few years ago it was fine.

Lawrence’s profile/passer style is closer to an than a Patrick Mahomes.

NFL Combine projections:

6’5”/220, 10” hands.

4.65+ 40-time, 7.1+ three-cone.

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The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Trevor Lawrence Most Compares Within Our System:

You think Lawrence is this bigger, faster, more swashbuckling QB prospect but that’s really a misperception – Smith is about as big as Lawrence, maybe a tick shorter and a few pounds lighter. Smith was an Urban Meyer original back at Utah – a high-end passer/runner in the read option style, back when that offensive style was new/fresh/emerging.

It’s fair to notice Justin Herbert as a comp potential and to think Lawrence reminds you (physically, at a glance) of Herbert more than of modern-day Alex Smith…I think that way too. I just see Herbert as much more arm-talented, more gifted reading defenses and hitting the open man, while just as fast (foot speed) as Lawrence…but Herbert doesn’t need to run as a crutch for fear in muddy pockets like Lawrence does.

Lawrence, at best, might be the split between Herbert and Alex Smith…not as good as Herbert but better/more upside than how Smith turned out in the NFL.

QB- LJax Last First Yr College H W Adj Adj Adj Adj Grade Rating Comp Yds per Pass Pass Pct Comp per TD Per INT 8.138 6.63 Lawrence Trevor 2021 Clemson 77.0 220 63.7% 12.9 22.9 88.8 10.119 6.02 Smith Alex 2005 Utah 76.0 217 66.9% 13.1 11.5 81.4 6.978 White Mike 2018 W. Kentucky 76.5 224 64.3% 11.6 23.2 69.6 8.677 4.02 Herbert Justin 2020 Oregon 78.2 236 65.9% 11.5 17.1 59.0 7.223 0.70 Schaub Matt 2004 Virginia 77.0 240 69.5% 9.8 23.7 47.9 4.253 4.82 Gabbert Blaine 2011 Missouri 76.4 234 60.9% 10.7 33.2 56.8

*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents. **“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.

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***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to- great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite. QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

You will be crucified for not absolutely believing that Trevor Lawrence is the best prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft. I am going to be crucified for not going along with the fact that he’s not a god…and even worse (for me) that he is not the top QB prospect in 2021.

The Jaguars franchise would be crucified for not drafting him or trading that pick. The Jaguars are stuck with HAVING to take Lawrence. And Lawrence isn’t going to hurt them…he’s just not the next Burrow or Herbert (or Murray or J. Allen).

NFL Outlook:

Lawrence IS better than the bust prospects of recent years – Jameis, Tua, Darnold. I don’t think he’ll destroy a team/offense, but when we look back in a few years I think people will be a bit let down that he wasn’t as good as advertised…he almost couldn’t be. It’s unfair to him.

Sure, Lawrence could grow in the NFL with more work/maturity. He has the tools. With the right coach and good O-Line…he could be fine/solid. Carson Wentz was fine. But, with Lawrence, I see more ‘red flags’ on tape, which I have a gift for seeing, than I expected. Kinda like Tua…they are not terrible QBs, just limited passer (vision/execution downfield) and were overrated because of their cushy life in a dominant college program.

Lawrence has had the cushy college program life but he does have way more tools for NFL success than Tua. In the end, Lawrence should be a C+ to B+ range NFL worker. I just don’t see sustained ‘A’ in his play, but I do recognize he has the tools to possibly get there in a perfect world. I’m not damning him to ‘average’ but I would have to bet that’s how he winds up from what I see (and considering my experience with it the past 10+ years).

From a Fantasy Football standpoint, Lawrence should be decent – because he runs a lot when confused by coverage, and which isn’t bad for fantasy purposes…and the offense will be built for him. He’s playing Week 1 and he’ll stay as a starter for at least three years, and likely more (like Wentz…or Winston…or Darnold) because his franchise will be vested heavily.

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A fantasy-fear that comes to mind – if Lawrence is a bit limited as a downfield passer…then any extra enthusiasm about D.J. Chark might be questionable, and Chark might ultimately be a ‘sell high’ in Dynasty.

For example, I’d trade Lawrence for Herbert in a second for Dynasty. In that same vein -- I’d trade Chark for Chase Claypool. If I’m wrong/off a bit and Lawrence is good enough…then Herbert will be as good or way better, you can’t lose anything in the swap. If then Chark is good because Lawrence is effective…well, you won’t lose anything owning Claypool+ (or some other nice WR) either.

HOWEVER…if I am right, that there are problems here…if you make deals away from it, then you sidestep the problem. You squeezed the value out of it and avoided the risk. For the lofty perch Lawrence is on – I’m a seller as high as I can sell it.

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2/20/2021

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