Strengthening Performance Management in Government

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment District -

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Development Planning of

Strengthening Performance Management in Government

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment District - Tikamgarh

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Development Planning of Madhya Pradesh

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Acronyms

AGI : Agriculture Indices BASIC : Basic and Strengthening Institutional Capacities on Climate Change CC : Climate Change CCA-RAI : Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Areas of CDM : Clean Development Mechanism CERES : Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System CLI : Climate Indices CSA : Climate Smart Agriculture CVI : Composite Vulnerability Index DA : Development Alternatives DFID : Department for International Development EC : Electrical Conductivity ECI : Economic Indices ENI : Environment Indices EPCO : Environmental Planning and coordination organization FSI : Forest Survey of India GHG : Greenhouse gases GIS : Geographic Information System HA : Hectare HLI : Health Indices IAY : Indira Aawas Yojana IBS : Integrated Biosphere Simulator IBIS : International Benchmarking of the Information Society IGNOU : Indira Gandhi National Open University IIFM : Indian Institute of Forest Management IITM : Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology INR : Indian National Rupee IPCC : Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change ISOPAM : Integrated Scheme of Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil Palm and Maize

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IWRM : Integrated Water Resource Management JFM : Joint Forest Management JFMC : Joint Forest Management Committee KCC : Kisan Credit Card KVK : Krishi Vigyan Kendra LPCD : Litres per Capita Daily LULUCF : Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry LVI : Livelihood Vulnerability Index MCM : Million Cubic Metres MGNREGA : Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act MOEF & CC : Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change MPCDF : MP Cooperative Dairy Federation MPWSRP : Madhya Pradesh Water Structure Restructuring Project NABARD : National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development NAPCC : National Action Plan of Climate Change NATCOM : National Communications Center NGA : Nirmal Gram Yojana NGO : Non-Governmental Organization NMPS : National Mission for Protein Supplements NPP : Net Primary Productivity NTFP : Non Timber Forest Produce PFC : Project Facilitating Committee PIA : Project Implementing Agency PIM : Participatory Irrigation Management PP : Projected Production PPM : Parts Per Million PRECIS : Providing Regional Climate Model Diagnosis and Inter-comparison PRI : Primary Rural Institution PRIS : Performance Related Incentive Scheme RAY : Rajiv Aawas Yojana RBI : Reserve Bank of India

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REDD+ : Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation RKVY : Rastriya Krishi Vikas Yojana R&D : Research and Development SAPCC : State Action Plan on Climate Change SI : Social Indices SHG : Self Help Group SOC : Standard Occupational System SKMCCC : State Knowledge Management of Climate Change Cell SRLM : State Rural Livelihoods Mission SWAT : Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWM : South West Monsoon TEEB : The Economics of Ecosystem and Biodiversity TFRI : Tropical Forest Research Institute UNDP : United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC : United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UP : Uttar Pradesh VA&A : Vulnerability Adaptation and Assessment VI : Vulnerability Index WHS : Water Harvesting Structures WRI : Water Resources Indices WSRP : Water Sector Restructuring Project WTO : World Trade Organization

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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ...... 6

1. Introduction ...... 7

2. Summary of SAPCC and State Vulnerability Assessment Report...... 9

3. Climate Change Trends & Sectoral Vulnerabilities in Madhya Pradesh...... 11

4. Tikamgarh- A District Vulnerability Assessment ...... 23

5. Adaptation Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change in Tikamgarh ...... 42

6. Conclusion ...... 64

7. References ...... 68

8. Annexures ...... 70

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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Acknowledgement

A comprehensive study of climate change vulnerability of was conducted and the major findings were lucidly drafted and presented in the form of this booklet .The facts emerged in the study were validated with primary and secondary data of six blocks to draw scientific conclusions about the extent of vulnerability in the sectors of water, agriculture and forest. The information generated through the study and discussion with the members of the focused group of stakeholders made valuable contribution which may facilitate the concerned development departments to incorporate this information in their action plans for dealing with the issues of climate change, thereby improving the quality of life of people by ensuring their livelihoods.

I sincerely acknowledge my gratitude to Shri Ajatshatru Shrivastava, IAS, Executive Director, EPCO, Bhopal for providing guidance and encouragement for undertaking the study. I also gratefully acknowledge a deep sense of gratitude towards Shri Lokendra Thakkar, Co-ordinator SKMCCC EPCO, Bhopal for providing the technical guidance, thought provoking comments, constructive criticism in conducting the study and preparing the report. I also avail this opportunity to express my heartfelt thanks to Mr. Raghawesh Ranjan, Governance Advisor , Department for International Development, New Delhi for technical and financial support. I would like to express my gratitude to those who have provided their valuable contribution for completing the work, in particular to Mr. Jay Anand, resource person of water and Bhopal team of Development Alternatives. I also extend my sincere thanks to Dr. S.N. Pandey, his team and all stakeholders of six blocks who spared their valuable time for providing the detailed information for primary data collection.

Anand Kumar Senior Programme Director Development Alternatives New Delhi -110016, India.

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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Executive Summary

The study of Tikamgarh district is based on the scientific analysis of observed climatic trends (Exposure), their impacts (Sensitivity) as well as capacities to deal with the impacts (Adaptive Capacity). With the above conceptualization of climatic variability, the present study developed and tested the application of a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) for water, agriculture and forest resource dependent communities in the semi-arid regions of Tikamgarh district. The index was administered in a composite cum sectoral (Agriculture, Water, Social, Forest and Health) study of six blocks of the district that is known to bear extremely severe impacts of climate change year after year.

The adopted LVI entailed a secondary data (55 indicators at the block level) and primary data analysis highlighted Household Details, Migration Status, Housing Conditions, Land, Crop and Livestock Details, Awareness and Access to Govt. Interventions and Schemes, Consumption and Health Expenses, Health and Food Security, Household Assets, Loan, Credit and Savings, Impact of Climatic Aberrations and Adaptation (Farm and Non-Farm Based including water, agriculture and forest), focusing exposure, sensitivity and their adaptive capacity. The results of the secondary data analysis suggested that one of the blocks – Jatara - was the most vulnerable in composite scale, which perfectly fitted in with agriculture and social dimensions but it displayed variance in forest, water and health vulnerability scale. Further, the comparative livelihood vulnerability analysis has shown that Tikamgarh block ranked third in the secondary and second in the primary analysis, concluding that there was no significant variation in primary and secondary studies as far as vulnerability was concerned. The analyzed stressors were mainly related to income, occupation, migration, and assets owned by the people including agriculture, forest, water, health, social accessibility and affordability by the community.

The study can be contextualized in terms of the measurement of vulnerability, pointing to the need to take risks on block levels into account in designing poverty-reduction strategies by policy makers and practitioners. Overall, the study suggested that the LVI can be broadly applied in comparable settings in small developing states and other developing countries. In doing so, it provides a reliable methodology that can be used to assess community vulnerability and design management integrated plans for overall development in areas with limited resources and access to reliable data.

It highlights a number of ways to develop sound strategies for measurement of vulnerability, and also provides directions for planning in terms of policy options and taking up appropriate measures like capacity building and adequate adaptation, including insurance under the State and National adaptation assessment process.

The element of information drawn from the study will develop a future roadmap to conduct Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation, package of practices, besides an overview of the National Circumstances which the challenges of Climate Change are being addressed and responded to. Suggested technologies for adaptation measures in relation to climate challenges are diverse and that deployment required serious effort for successfully leveraging technologies for meeting the climate challenges. The agenda for moving ahead must be viewed with the understanding that the necessary ranked adaptation sector in each block must be appropriately tailored, for specifics of the technology as well as regional circumstances. It would be a win-win situation if technology cum adaptation framework could encompass the following elements: financial assistance, technology deployment for sectoral upliftment, integrated technology development, knowledge sharing for enhancing deployment and capacity building. A better understanding of adopted adaptation tools in the sectoral context of Tikmagarh and State of Madhya Pradesh needs to be developed, assessed and identified therein.

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1. Introduction

Vulnerability is described as a function of exposure to climate hazards and perturbations, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (IPCC 2011)1 and is an emerging concept for climate science and policy234. In other words, it is the degree to which a system is susceptible or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate variability and extremes. The extent to which systems are vulnerable to climate change depends on the environmental, physical, and socio-economic conditions of the area. Understanding the pattern, extent and driving factors of vulnerability is desirable for climate adaptation efforts. The purpose of the analysis of vulnerability to climate change at the Block level is to identify, classify and map the vulnerability in blocks based on a set of multivariate data (Secondary and Primary). This vulnerability assessment is helpful for developing and prioritizing strategies to reduce the vulnerability, and for determining the effectiveness of those strategies.

1.1. Literature Review A vulnerability assessment is the process of identifying, quantifying and prioritizing (or ranking) the vulnerabilities in a system, which has to be carried out by the Environmental Planning and Coordination Organization (EPCO) and Development Alternatives (DA) at the state and district level. Four previous joint study reports on vulnerability assessment by reputed institutions (EPCO, GIZ, UNDP and DA) for Madhya Pradesh and Tikamgarh state that adaptation to climate change requires integrated solutions that simultaneously address livelihood improvements and environmental sustainability. Proactive measures for adaptation to climate variability and change can substantially reduce many of the adverse impacts, and thus contribute to livelihood security of the vulnerable rural population.

1.2. Vulnerability to Climate Change Based on the IPCC Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Report in 2001, 2006 and 2012, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Thus, vulnerability comprises three major components:

1.2.1. Exposure Exposure can be interpreted as the nature and extent of changes to a region’s climate variables. A rise in the extreme events such as high temperature and low precipitation will impact the health and lives of the local populace as well as generate associated environmental and economic impacts.

1.2.2. Sensitivity Sensitivity describes the human-environmental conditions that can worsen the hazard, and ameliorate or trigger an impact of climate change.

1 IPCC working Group paper (2011): Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 2 “Vulnerability” may be defined in various ways. UNDP and GIZ describe vulnerability as a function of exposure to climate hazards and perturbations, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (UNDP 2011). 3 Bünner (2013) lists the following reasons for conducting VAs: “Internationally, VAs are often used for comparing vulnerabilities of countries, often in form of vulnerability indicators”; “At national level, VAs support the setting of development priorities and … preparing Adaptation Strategies [such as] NAPAs”; “VAs on a sectoral level assist in setting strategic targets in development planning. At local level, VAs are used for developing local adaptation strategies or for mainstreaming adaptation into existing district or community plans. They are often the first step to be realized before designing and implementing an adaptation project.” 4 The term “resilience” here is intended to encompass and go beyond adaptation

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1.2.3. Adaptive Capacity Adaptation is a process through which societies are taking the measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change. There are many ways to adapt such as better water management in times of drought, early warning systems for extreme events, improve risk management and various insurances.

1.2.4. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh Climate observations stated in Madhya Pradesh State Action Plan highlight that the state has observed a gradual increase in temperatures across all seasons and decrease in monsoon rainfall in all agro-climatic zones with erratic and uneven spatial and temporal distribution. The climate data analyzed by IITM Pune indicates a declining trend for rainfall over the state of MP from 1901 to 2000. The water availability in the state has also been declining. Shifting of rainfall pattern has also affected the cropping patterns. Erratic weather conditions, shifting monsoons and uncertain precipitation patterns are not only impacting the productivity of the agriculture sector but are also negatively affecting the economy and livelihoods of communities directly dependent on it.

1.3. Madhya Pradesh and Vulnerability Assessment Madya Pradesh (MP) State is already registered as a pioneer in terms of carrying out Vulnerability and Risk Assessment with respect to Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh under the Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Areas of India (CCA-RAI). Being ahead and imperative to act earlier, the state has come forward to step down its analysis from district level to block level in order to address how vulnerable a population (human or other) is to climate change at the local level, by using secondary and primary data, and what are the priorities in terms of investing in building adaptation/resilience, based on the extent of vulnerability in three thematic areas (Agriculture, Water, and Forest).

Vulnerability assessment is conducted to assess trends in a population’s (or geographic area’s) exposure and vulnerability to climate change. Most of the adopted vulnerability indicators (26 of the 61 indicators) from the previous study (GIZ-EPCO- CCA-RAI) are to assess impacts, risks, and the adaptive capacity of a region or sector to the effects of climate vulnerability. For the purposes of this overview, vulnerability assessment is considered separate from adaptive capacity assessment. A quantitative “top-down” vulnerability assessment is focused to be used in developing climate change adaptation policies or taking action at the district level by sectoral (Agriculture, Water and Forest) authorities. A qualitative and quantitative method’s “bottom-up” vulnerability assessment approach has been used to assess the social vulnerability of communities while considering adaptation options at a smaller scale.

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2. Summary of SAPCC and State Vulnerability Assessment Report

The recent study by Environmental Planning and Coordination Organization (EPCO), Bhopal and GIZ, India Madhya Pradesh, has elaborated climate projections that reveal that average surface temperature and precipitation variability will increase at the regional scale, triggering hydrological variations and alterations in river flows and groundwater table levels. Climate change impacts on freshwater resources are likely to affect freshwater availability and quality and (by extension) the ability of water systems to support natural processes and ensure population needs. As a result, the vulnerability of water systems to adverse conditions (e.g. water shortages, over-exploitation, and quality deterioration) is intensified; hence, methods and tools for vulnerability assessment and identification of adaptation measures are necessary for agriculture, forest and water sectors.

2.1. Overall Future Vulnerability The assessment of overall future vulnerability was performed by applying the rigorous model runs of each sector and spatial distribution of districts of the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) in Madhya Pradesh for projections pertaining to baseline, mid-century and end century scenarios. In the mid-century scenario, a number of districts move to higher CVI categories as compared to the current vulnerability conditions. In the Tikamgarh case, it moves to higher vulnerability categories. In the end century scenario, the vulnerability is again predominant in higher categories for the district.

2.2. Climate Scenario The climate Scenario of Madhya Pradesh is assessed by using the PRECIS simulation data. Future climate exposure was considered for two time frames in the future: mid-century (2021-2050) and end century (2071- 2050). In the mid-century scenario (2021-2050), the minimum and maximum air temperatures are expected to rise by 2.3oC and 1.9oC respectively. By the end of the century (2071-2100), minimum and maximum air temperatures are expected to rise by around 4.8oC and 3.9oC respectively above current conditions. Mean annual precipitation is simulated to increase by about 11% in the mid-century and about 30% towards the end of century. PRECIS simulation also indicated that the frequency of certain climatic extremes will significantly increase. Warm days and nights and consecutive dry days are expected to increase while the number of cold days and nights is expected to decrease.

Warm days: Spatial distribution of trend indices are projected for the mid-century and end century scenario with respect to the baseline and it has been discovered that the confidence level is high, which simply means the mid and end century will be more hotter.

Warm nights: Confidence levels are also high in the baseline scenario, mid and end century that highlights that nights will be hotter as compared to those in the base years.

Some of the sectoral impacts highlighted in the state vulnerability assessment report are as follows:

Water Resources: The state VA Report has projected an increase of 29% of precipitation by the end century (2071-2100) using a baseline data (1961-1990), using SWAT model analysis of Narmada basin. It also clearly depicted that during the monsoon months, surface runoff and evaporation are projected to increase considerably and offer opportunities for increased water harvesting and groundwater recharge. Due to substantially enhanced evaporation rates during the rabi season, groundwater recharge is projected to decrease

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despite projected higher precipitation. In case of Tikamgarh, the projections depict a significant rise in precipitation surface runoff and base flow. Evaporation and groundwater recharge have mixed results; the areas are divided between ‘no significant change’ and ‘significant increase’.

Agriculture Resource: The study highlighted the impact assessment on agriculture, which was done on wheat and Soybean in the Tikamgarh district through CERES-Wheat and CROPGRP-soybean models. It states that the potential yield is already low due to temperatures higher than that in northern India. It also indicated a decline in wheat and soybean productivity by 14-20% and 14-17% respectively in the district (PRECIS A1B 2030 scenarios). Adaptation assessment suggests that possible changes in sowing dates and hybrid selection can reduce the negative impact of projected climate in 2030s along with other options such as widespread adoption of resource efficient farming practices, promoting and reviving traditional drought-coping mechanisms, traditional water harvesting structures, drought-resistant crop varieties etc.

Forest Resource: The impact of climate change on forest resources in Madhya Pradesh was assessed using a dynamic vegetation model called IBS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator), whose basic inputs are the given climatic data (PRECIS simulation), soil parameters and topographic data. The IBIS simulation indicates that in the near future (2021-2050), 23% of the state’s forested area is going to be negatively affected by climate change. At the end of the century (2071-2100), 48% of the total forested area is expected to suffer from the impacts of climate change. In Tikamgarh, the entire forest area is projected to be highly vulnerable; it clearly highlighted the forest vegetative changes by 2080s under A1B scenarios for Madhya Pradesh.

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3. Climate Change Trends and Sectoral Vulnerabilities in Madhya Pradesh

3.1. Climate Change trends in Madhya Pradesh Climate change is one of the most serious threats to MP, especially the semi-arid regions which are more vulnerable due to the pressures of natural resources and poor coping mechanism. It is inducing an additional stress on the ecology and socio-economic conditions of the local populace. The drought, increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall, uneven distribution of rainfall with high intensity in shorter period of time, frost, hail storm are some of the observed phenomenon due to climate change in the state.

These variations in climatic parameters are responsible for crop damage, reduction in soil fertility, increase in disease and death, weak live-stock, reduced water quantity and quality, reduced availability of drinking water, reduced irrigation water and more moisture stress, reduced fuel wood and migration of people in search of livelihoods. In rural dominated areas, climate change is significantly impacting the economic front due to the high dependence on climate sensitive factors like agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry, fisheries, forest, water etc. as being the main supportive recourse for population at large in terms of sustainable livelihoods.

The greenhouse gases are well known to have caused serious problems in terms of increase in temperature, resulting in more demand for water and increase in biotic and abiotic stresses. For the MP region under South Asia Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007), the projected rise in temperature is from 0.50C to 1.20C by 2020, 0.880C to 3.10C by 2050 which is also endorsed by the SAPCC report.

3.2. Blockwise Climatic Trend analysis of Tikamgarh District

3.2.1. Rainfall Pattern The average annual rainfall of Tikamgarh, , Jatara, Niwari, Prithivipur blocks were 951.53, 791.53, 784.94, 959.06, 893.14, 924.41mm respectively. About 81% rainfall was received in the SW monsoon season of June to September in about 55 days. Variation within the seasonal rainfall is important for crop production and the rain received in the month of September is vital for crop production and crucial for the maturity of Kharif crops and sowing of Rabi crops. Delayed onset of rains, early withdrawal or long dry spells is a natural phenomenon. Analysis of recent seventeen years (1997-2014) (Fig1) depicts a negative rainfall trend in Baldeogarh and Prithivipur, whereas the rest of our blocks portray a positive trend in rainfall.

In current five years (2010-2014), the rainfall distribution was below the normal level by 10 to 43% except the years 2011 (34%) and 2013 (33%). In Tikamgarh district, a decreasing trend can be seen during the South West Monsoon and summer monsoon, whereas North East Monsoon and winter show an increasing trend. There was a deficit of 32.10% in 2004-05, 31.99% in 2005-06, 48.69% in the year 2006-07 which went up to 58.29% in 2007- 08. It was 28.97% in 2009-10, and59% in the current year (2010-11).. The annual water deficit amounts to 500- 700 mm during post rainy and summer periods.

The normal maximum temperature observed during May is about 41.8o C and the minimum temperature during the month of January is about 7.0 oC .The normal annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures of the district are about 32.4 oC and 17.5 o C respectively.

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During the South-West monsoon, the relative humidity exceeds 81.99% (2009-2010). In fact, the driest part of the year is summer season when relative humidity is less than about 22.35%.

Fig1. Annual average trend (1997-2014) of rainfall in Tikamgarh district

Fig 2. and Fig 3. Seasonal trend (2010-2014) of Maximum temperature and Minimum Temperature in Tikamgarh

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Fig 4. and Fig 5. Seasonal Trend of Average rainfall and Number of Rainy Days in Tikamgarh

3.2.2. Soil Status Tikamgarh district has maximum light (red mixed – 44%) soil followed by medium (sandy loam – 36%) and minimum black (clay–20%) soils. There is no problem of salinity in this district but nearly 7760 ha of land suffers due to mild alkalinity. Micro-nutrient deficiency is also prevalent. The fertility indices based on soil samples analysis indicates that the soils in the whole Tikamgarh district are neutral in reaction with medium EC. Majority of soils are low in organic carbon, low to medium in nitrogen, phosphorous and medium to high in potash.

3.3. Impact on Agriculture From the facts narrated above, greater instability can be anticipated in highly sensitive issues pertaining to climate change like agriculture and allied enterprises.

3.3.1. Rain-fed Agriculture A large area of land under rain-fed agriculture (58% of the state) is expected to undergo changes in the rainfall pattern, temperature and extreme events over the next several decades due to climate change, thus making rain-fed agriculture more risk prone. After collection of long term data from different locations of Madhya Pradesh, climatic characterization was done for long term trends and occurrence of extreme events for precipitation and temperature in relation to crop growth phases as climate change related occurrence of these extreme events can have serious negative impacts upon the agricultural production.

In Madhya Pradesh, the success of rain-fed farming almost entirely depends on the southwest monsoon (SWM), which itself is very erratic and unevenly distributed over the entire crop growing season. It ranges from 800 mm in the western part of the state to 1500 mm in the east which shows that its total value decreases from south to north and east to west. Total quantum of rainfall throughout the state should be sufficient to meet the entire water requirement in crop production. However, it requires better rainwater management strategies to make best use of this important natural resource. The crop growing season is limited by water availability, as temperatures are generally favourable for crop growth except for a limited period during summer. Though most rain-fed crops tolerate high temperatures, rain-fed crops grown during rabi are vulnerable to changes in minimum temperatures (Venkateswarlu and Shanker, 2009).

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3.3.2. Cropping System The principal crops grown in the district are paddy, sorghum, maize, green gram, black gram, groundnut, sesame, soybean, wheat, barley, gram, field pea, lentil and mustard. The area under horticulture crops like fruits, vegetables and spices is 1265, 33297 and 3359 ha, respectively. Main horticultural crops are guava, mango, aonla, custard apple, papaya, table pea, potato, colocasia, tomato, brinjal, okra, onion, ginger, chilli, turmeric and coriander. The total livestock population in the district is 10.07 lakh, out of which the cattle number 4.90 lakh, buffaloes 1.81 lakh, sheep 0.44 lakh, goat 2.82 lakh and poultry birds 1.27 lakh. The total water area amounts to 6952 ha in 789 tanks for fisheries.

3.3.3. Trend of Area and Productivity The area and production in both Xth and XIth Five Year Plan of Kharif crops (Paddy, Soybean and Tur) and Rabi crop (wheat and Gram) was studied. The projections (using growth formula in excel) of the same crops were worked out for the XII Five Year Plan to ascertain the anticipated future trend. The actual sowing area and the production depicted a declining trend for the past fifteen years (2001-2002 to 2016-2017) in all studied kharif crops. But, the actual area and projected area are not showing a similar trend in case of paddy and soybean. In other words, the area of sowing has slightly increased in case of paddy and soybean. The result reveals that the Tikamgarh area is highly vulnerable because the production has remained low despite an increase in the area, which perfectly matches with the projected production (PP). It has been further overlaid with precipitation and temperature data; and, it was witnessed that the annual rainfall during SW monsoon was low whereas the temperature was slightly high. Climate variability has influenced crop production to a great extent, interfering with the yield in terms of adequate production.

Similarly, during the Rabi season, the actual area versus the projected area was not depicting an identical trend. One could witness that the projected production and actual production, both, were declining in the last fifteen years. In case of gram, the actual area witnessed an increment as compared to the projected area. However, the actual production was low as compared to the projected one. Both the Rabi crops clearly indicated that the extremities of climate had influenced the production in a negative manner even though the sown area revealed an increasing trend.

Kharif crops

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Fig 6., Fig 7., and Fig 8., Trend in X and XI FYP and projection in XII FYP (Paddy, Soybean and Tur)

Rabi Crops

Fig. 9 and Fig. 10. Trend in X and XI FYP and projection in XII FYP (Wheat and Gram)

3.3.4. Impact on Horticulture Positive growth had been observed in the district in the horticulture area and the overall yield. It can definitely change the status of individual farmers. Crops are sensitive to climate change, particularly in terms of drought conditions, which can affect the production. Increasing cropdiversity can secure livelihood and income in the district as is shown below (in Table1).

Table 1. Status of Horticulture in Tikamgarh District

2011-2012 2012-2013 Horticulture Crops Area (ha) Production (Metric tons) Area (ha) Production (Metric tons) Vegetables 14173 179941 16985 346024.3 Fruits 439 3857 602 14080.5 Spices 7685 69867 11520 91708.5 Flowers 71 340 73 107.5 Medicinal Plants 59 186 72 87.56

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3.3.5. Impact on Livestock Milk is an important component for food security and human health. Increased heat stress associated with global climate change may, however, cause distress to dairy animals and possibly impact milk production. It is highlighted that high producing cross-bred cows and buffaloes will be impacted more than the indigenous cattle. VA & A report states that a rise of 2-6OC due to warming will negatively impact growth, puberty, and maturity of cross breeds and buffaloes. Time required for attaining puberty of cross breeds and buffaloes will increase by one to two weeks due to their higher sensitivity to temperature than the indigenous cattle. In Tikamgarh district, cows and buffaloes (Table 2) are the domesticated elements and the district may suffer with climatic stresses.

Table 2. Livestock statistics

Category Population Production (MT) Productivity CATTLE Cow 5,97,166 1.59 1.7 lit./Animal/day Buffaloes 3,10,859 1.20 2.23 lit./Animal/ day SHEEP& GOAT Sheep 58,093 - Goat 3,91,303 - POULTRY Broiler 10,800 237.28 36.69 kg/year Poultry 82,601 62.82 Lakh 10.50/year (Hen)

3.3.6. Thrust area- Potential and Problems The major problems in soybean, wheat, paddy, gram, mustard, sesame and other crops are replacement of old varieties, integrated nutrient management, integrated weed management, integrated insect pest and disease management and water management.

While in livestock the thrust areas are disease management, green Fodder and breed improvement. Low rainfall and low water holding capacity of the soil are the two major problems of the district. Similarly, black soil is left fallow during the Kharif season due to poor fertility and less moisture and the black soil covered area can only be used for growing Rabi crops (wheat and gram) on the available stored moisture.

Farmers of the region are economically poor and this leads to low adoption of scientific technology. However, there is a great potential for developing water storage structures to enhance water resources for irrigation and livestock rearing.

These areas and their climatic conditions are best suited to crops like mustard and sunflower that need to be promoted which can give remunerative profit to the farmers. It requires a vision and institutional support to value-addition of the suggested crops by capitalizing on processing, infrastructure and marketing. Coarse textured low water retaining soil can be supported by growing fodder crops for bovine and livestock population.

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 Sustainable utilization of natural resources with environmental protection  Safeguarding diversity of plant genetic resources  Increasing yield through exploiting the genetic potential  Modernizing commercial Horticulture  Harnessing indigenous technological knowledge for developing low input sustainable agriculture  Development of awareness for WTO agreements and implications on education, R & D  Strengthening research on abiotic stress, cellular physiology and microbiology  Impact of climate change on quality and yield of seeds, planting material and physiology of plants, insects, pests, weeds and diseases  Biotechnological advancements, watershed development and human resource development.

3.4. Impact on Water Resource The impacts of climate change on water availability and water quality will affect many sectors, including energy production, infrastructure, human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. Warming air temperature can directly raise temperatures of streams, ponds, and lakes, which can directly harm aquatic organisms and indirectly impact the human, agriculture and allied sectors, along with forests.

Some regions of Tikamgarh, particularly the projected dam (proposed or developed), use water to produce energy through hydropower. If climate change results in lower stream flows in areas where hydropower is generated, it will reduce the amount of energy that can be produced. Changes in the timing of stream flow can also have an impact on the ability to produce hydroelectricity. Lower water flows would also reduce the amount of available water.

Climate change impacts on water supply and quality will also affect tourism and recreation. The quality of lakes, streams, and other water bodies that are used for swimming, fishing, and other recreational activities can be affected by changes in precipitation, increases in temperature.

Agriculture and livestock heavily depend upon water. Heavy rainfall and flooding can damage crops and increase soil erosion and delay the planting. Additionally, areas that experience more frequent droughts will have much less water available for crops and livestock. (To learn more about how climate change will impact agriculture and food production, visit the Agriculture and Food Supply Impacts page.)

Aquatic species that live in only cold water environments, such as salmon, will be affected by rising water temperatures. Changing water temperatures would also affect the geographic range of fish species.

Non-availability of water for various uses is a major concern in the region. A major portion of the water resources in the region caters to the agriculture and allied activities since there is an absence of any major industry in the district.

3.4.1. Groundwater Resources Tikamgarh district is occupied by granite with a thin soil cover. Dynamic ground water resources of the district have been estimated for the base year 2010/11 on a blockwise basis. Out of 5, 04,800 ha of geographical area, 4,88,100 ha (97%) is groundwater recharge worthy area and 16,700 ha (3%) is hilly area. All

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blocks in the district fall under non-command (88%) and command (12%) sub units. All blocks of the district in the command area are categorized as safe. Non-command areas of Baldeogarh, Jatara, Niwari, and Tikamgarh are categorized as semi-critical (same as in 2008/09) as a whole for the district. After making allocation for future domestic and industrial supply for the next 25 years, and the balance available groundwater for future irrigation would be 14,032 ha m (source: Water resource department- Dynamic Ground Water resource of Madhya Pradesh (2011)).

3.4.2. Water Resource (Past, Present and Future in Tikamgarh) Tikamgarh, with a rich tradition in the past to show the judicious use and collection of water, is without sufficient water today. Chandeli ponds and other such ponds in the district were providing livelihoods to many people, besides serving the irrigation purposes. They were used for fisheries and growing Murar and Kamalgatta (lotus). But now these traditional occupations are in danger due to depletion of water in such ponds.

Increasing competition for water severely limits irrigation and curtails food production. It also influences other environmental factors like soil degradation. Its direct impact can be seen on human health.

3.4.3. Migration due to Water Resource Depletion A report on Drought by Madhya Pradesh “Apda Niwaran Manch” discloses the hard facts about the severe migration in Bundelkhand district. Out of the 600 families in Jatara Block of Tikamgarh district, 400 families have already moved out of Karmaura village. The migrated families are now finding a new home in the adjoining states of Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. While the low wages being offered to these migrated workers in these cities is a matter of concern by itself, the social stigma attached to migration is what the villagers are finding difficult to deal with. This social stigma refers to the fact that people who migrate to cities are looked down upon by others in the village since migration to cities has traditionally been considered a disgraceful activity in the villages.

According to the data available in the year 2007-08, the total cultivated area was 41,700 ha; irrigation capacity from officially built sources and percentage of irrigated area is given in the table below (Table 3 and 4):

Table 3: Reporting Area of Irrigation

District Total cultivated Officially built irrigation Irrigation area (ha) capacity (ha) (%) Tikamgarh 41700 34339 Due to no rain, irrigation was not done

18 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 4 - List of Plans Passed in Tikamgarh District

S. Name of Plan Administrative grant Proposed irrigation Present Approx time No proposed (Rs in lakhs) area (ha) status For completion 1 Bagaaj mata 963.88 1050 03/2011 plan Technically 2 Jarua nala pond 575.66 615 passed and 03/2011 3 Lahar pond plan 384.40 438 land 03/2010 4 Kariapatha pond 414.08 700 acquisition 03/2010 plan is in progress 5 Rongata ghat 139.00 200 stopdam

3.5. Impact on Forest Ecosystem The district of Tikamgarh is most vulnerable to climate change as per the SAPCC report. It is due to its undulating topography, resource exploitation, intensified ravines, agrarian and forest based economy and high poverty (EPCO 2014). According to FSI 2003 and 2013 reports, the total forest cover has increased from 325 to 403 sq km. However, there has been a decrease in the moderately dense forest cover from 101 sq km in 2003 to 93 sq km in 2013. Further, there is an increase in the open forest cover from 224 sq km in 2003 to 309 sq km in 2013. This shows that there has been a decrease in the moderately dense forest cover and increase in the open forest cover as given in the following table (Table 5).

Table 5: Forest Area under Different Forest Cover (sq km) (Source: FSI 2003 and FSI 2013)

Forest Cover FSI 2013 FSI 2003 Change Area % of Area % of geographical geographical area area Very dense forest 1 0.02 0 0 1 Moderately density 93 1.84 101 2 -8 forest area Open forest area 309 6.12 224 2.44 85 Total 403 7.98 325 6.44 78 Scrub 133 2.63 Grand Total 536 10.62

As per the Working Plan (2014-15 to 2023-24) of Tikamgarh Forest Division, the climatic factors viz., frost, drought, temperature, storm and lightning, flood and biotic factors viz., heavy pressure of livestock grazing, forest fire and rampant felling of trees for timber, poles, fuel wood, agricultural implements, collection of NTFPs by the people and pests (teak defoliator and skeletonizer) and diseases, mould and fungus lead to degradation and depletion of forest resources. The major climatic and biotic factors influencing forest vulnerability are described below:

19 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

3.5.1. Climatic Pressure

Frost The frost occurs in the Forest Division in areas like river, runnel (nallah) and valley during the month of December to February. The North-West part of the Forest Division is mostly affected by the frost. It impacts the regeneration greatly. The regeneration of plant species affected by the frost includes ghot, aonla, achar, lendia, kem, duhai, teak but the impact of frost on ber and palash is very low.

Drought The erratic and low rain fall is occurred in the Tikamgarh areas which lead to the occurrence of drought. Due to the high temperature during summers, there is an abundant flow of hot air current. It affects the vegetative regeneration and causes forest fires. Due to occurrence of drought and forest fires, there is an increase in terms of the chances of conversion of green leaves of trees to dry leaves and their subsequent fall from trees. This all leads to availability of dry leaves even after the first fire of the season and in a particular area, there are incidences of recurring fires. A report published by the Ministry of Water Resources, Central Ground Water Board, North Central Region Government of MP stated that the groundwater level in Tikamgarh is depleting, which can lead to drought like situations in many places. Jatara and Tikamgarh Tehsil are majorly affected by drought (Ummed Singhoya, 2014).

Temperature After February, the temperature rises progressively. May is generally the hottest month, with a mean daily maximum temperature of about 47 degree Celsius and a low of 17.5 degree Celsius. On an individual day, the temperature may raise upto 47 degree Celsius. The relative humidity is high during the monsoon season, it being generally above 70 percent. During the rest of the year, the air is comparatively dry. The driest part of the year is summer season when the relative humidity is less than 20 percent in the afternoons (Ummed Singhoya, 2014). Such environment is favourable for occurrence of a forest fire. The temperature greatly influences the forest flora and fauna. During the dry period, there is a huge impact on water and fodder available for wild animals as well as livestock. There is large scale availability of Palash trees for lac cultivation but due to the high temperature during summers, they are unable to survive and this leads to their mortality.

Storm and Lightning The storm and lightning affect the forest trees of the Forest Division during the rainy season. There are incidences such as uprooting of trees from the areas where soil depth is low. The lightning leads to burning of trees. Trees on the shallow soil are greatly affected as compared to the trees on the deep soil.

Floods Most of the forest areas are on hills and mountains. Due to this reason, the rainwater flows down at a great speed, which uproots the trees with a shallow root system.

3.5.2. Biotic Pressure

Collection of Wood and NTFPs There is non-availability of naturally dried and fallen wood in the forest due to increase in the human population. Under such circumstances, people cut small trees and collect them a few days later in the form of head load. In this way, people cut the small and medium trees to use them as fuel wood. Due to this practice, there is large scale damage caused to the forest ecosystem. There is also lack of livelihood options, which leads

20 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

to sale of fuel wood head load to the nearby city areas. There is also illegal felling of poles for Nistar5 purpose in the areas viz., , Niwari, Jatara, Orcha, Palera, , Baldeogarh, Digoda, Lighora and Majna. There is felling of teak trees not for Nistar requirement but for business purposes. Due to this malpractice, the quality of forest is degrading day by day. The people collect Non Timber Forest Produce (NTFPs) Tendu, Achar, Aonla, Mahua, Kullu gum, from the forest. While collecting these produce they fell the trees and cut the branches and also set them on fire.

Livestock Grazing Most of the forest area of Tikamgarh Forest is scattered and surrounded by human habitat. Because of this there is heavy pressure of livestock grazing in the area. There is no practice prevailing in the villages for stall feeding; people set their livestock free in the forest to avoid the cost of grasses without any effort. The availability of palatable grasses is decreasing due to this practice, inducing the population of unpalatable grasses in forest areas. During the rainy season, there is a good growth of palatable grasses but the livestock graze them even before flowering. This culminates in the decrease in availability of palatable grasses and increase in the availability of unpalatable grasses viz., Bhurbusi, Charota etc. During the rainy season, the livestock graze the flowering plants and also press them under their feet. It leads to the damage of young shoots. Due to grazing the soil becomes compact and the filtration of rain water in the soil does not take place despite the rainy season, hence affecting the available soil moisture. In the forests, there used to be sporadic availability of bamboo. However, heavy grazing caused such terrible damage that the bamboo has completely vanished from the forest.

Forest Fires The forests of the Tikamgarh district are mostly dry and deciduous and prone to forest fires in the summer season from February to June. There is at least a one-time incidence of forest fire in the Forest Division. The favourable environment like high temperature, availability of dry leaves, grasses etc in the summer season induces forest fires. The main reasons for forest fires are as follows:  Fire set for clearing of ground below the Mahua trees during March and April;  Fire set by the Tendu leaves collectors with the view to obtain the early and better quality leaves.  Fire set by the livestock grazers and people near to forest area to obtain large quantity of green grass in rainy season.  Fire caused by the bidi/cigarette smokers and careless use of fire lit by the people in the forest area  The fire is also caused by the villagers while preparing food in and around forests area.

All these reasons lead to forest fires and adversely affect the standing crop, regeneration, NTFPs, grass, and wild animals.

5 By Nistar, we mean a provision made under the Indian Forest Act, 1927 for providing to local people living within the 5 km radius of the forest some special privileges in the form of supply at concessional rate/free of charge of fuelwood, poles, bamboo and other forest produce for their own use, or consumption. The Nistar benefits vary from year-to-year depending on the quantity of the forest produce available in the year which is distributed through Village Forest Committees/Forest Protection Committees/ JFMCs/Gram Panchayats.

21 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Fig. 11 and Fig. 12 Trend of NTFP produce and forest produce

Fig. 13 and Fig. 14 Trend of forest cover status and their revenue and expenditure

3.5.3. Forest Ecosystem of Tikamgarh Vulnerability to Climate Change Tikamgarh district is most vulnerable to climate change in Forest Index in the base period. It is due to undulating topography, resource exploitation, intensified ravines, agrarian and forest based economy and high poverty (EPCO 2014). According to FSI 2003 and 2013 reports, total forest cover has increased from 325 to 403 sq km. However, there has been a decrease in the moderately dense forest cover from 101 sq km in 2003 to 93 sq km in 2013. Further, there is an increase in open forest cover from 224 sq km in 2003 to 309 sq km in 2013. This shows that there has been a decrease in the moderately dense forest cover and increase in the open forest cover.

22 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

4. Tikamgarh - District Vulnerability Assessment

4.1. Approach & Methodology The methodology used for the drill down Vulnerability Assessment (VA) for Tikamgarh district that involved a top-down as well as a bottom-up approach. The top-down approach was based on secondary data using Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). The bottom-up approach comprised household level primary surveys for conducting Community-based Vulnerability Mapping.

Tikamgarh district level vulnerability assessment report, jointly developed by EPCO and DA, was based on secondary data assessment using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) tool. Therefore, the recent VA report at the block level focused on secondary data analysis using the same methodology (whose steps are written below). Community-based Vulnerability Mapping through primary survey and analysis was considered to strengthen the secondary data and reduce the bias towards the statistical information.

In order to assess the vulnerability at the block level: a LVI was tested by multivariate analysis of individual indicators (Social, Economic, Agriculture, Water Resource, Forest, Climate and Health) which are vulnerable to climate change. The LVI was adopted to provide the data/ map to sectoral (Agriculture, Water, Forest) departments for their decision making process to reduce vulnerability at the Block level.

The study was also visualized to get convergence of primary and secondary data analysis while addressing the following objectives to enhance adaptive capacities at the local level:

 What are the current and future climate change threats in the three sectors (Agriculture, Water and Forest) in MP State?  What are the stressors and underlying processes related to these threats?  What is the sensitivity towards the projected hazards and perturbations?  How will sectors/communities/populations be affected by these hazards and perturbations? Are there current socio-economic trends that interact with these sensitivities (and run the risk of amplifying them)?  How will stakeholders/community be able to cope with and manage these changes?  How do stakeholders conceive of systemic effects of climate change? Which vulnerability-decreasing strategies may be used to reduce risk? What is the priority of these strategies?

Block Name Total No. HH Sample size (1:500) Niwari 35359 70.72 Prithivipur 33145 66.29 Jatara 54616 109.23

Palera 38391 76.78

Baldeogarh 46736 93.47 Tikamgarh 41530 83.06 Total 249777 499.55 Table6: Sample Size for Primary survey

23 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Research Instruments Drilled down Vulnerability Assessment for Tikamgarh district was based on secondary and primary data analysis. (1) Secondary data (55 indicators) – Data collected from state and district line departments: Depicted in Table 11.

(2) Primary data – Sample size (Table 10) and questionnaire touching upon the local community vulnerability sector-wise which are lacking in secondary data at the block level under climate change/vulnerability lenses, filling up the gap of adopted indicators. o Primary data (Questionnaire) . Household information with social dynamics . Migration . Land use and cropping details . Awareness/Access to government schemes . Livestock . Social and Natural Capital . Food Security . Household assets . Loan, Saving and Credit . Climate Aberrations and Adaptation (Non-farm based, including agriculture and water-irrigation, RWH) . Climate Aberrations and Adaptation (farm based) . Climate aberrations and Adaptation (farm based) and crop loss . Schemes (Adaptation support) . Forest

Survey frame and coverage The procedure for drawing the sample for primary data collection at the household level was based on the sample of 1:500 of the total number of households. The total number of households being selected for the survey was depicted in Table 8.

Data Source - Indicators Reliable and systematic data, integrated with socio-economic conditions, help in determining vulnerability. This analysis is based on the secondary data obtained from the various sources as presented in Table 11 below under the heading of ‘Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity’ and the primary data, based on stratified interviews conducted and their detailed analysis along with the questions asked are framed on the above listed heads.

24 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Sl. Exposure No. Indicator Source Period Rainfall (mm) DSR/KVK 2010-2014 1 Max.T (°C) DSR/KVK 2012-2014 2 Min.T (°C) KVK 2012-2014 3 Rainy days(No.) KVK 2010-2014 4 EP (mm) KVK 2012-2014 5 Cloud cover (Okta) KVK 2012-2014

6 Indicators Climatic RH (Morning) KVK 2012-2014 7 Cloud cover (Okta) KVK 2012-2014 8 RH (Evening) KVK 2012-2014 Adaptive Capacity Sl. Indicator Source/Period No.

10 Percentage of Households With Access To Safe Drinking Water DSR (2009) (within premises and near premises) 11 Percentage of Households With Access To Sanitation Facilities DSR (2009)

12 Percentage of Households With Access To Electricity DSR (2009)

13 Percentage of Households with TV, Computer/Laptop, DSR (2009)/ Land Telephone/mobile phone and Scooter/ Car (Households owning records Radio, Transistor, Television and Telephones) 14 Road DSR (2009) 15 Population Served per Health Centre (Community, Primary and DSR (2009) Sub Health Centres) (2009) 16 Number of Primary, Middle, High and Higher Secondary DSR (2009)

Environmental/Social Indicator Environmental/Social Educational Institutions Per Lakh of Population 17 Total number of households availing banking services DSR (2009) (Scheduled commercial banks per lakhs of population)

18 Agricultural credit societies per lakhs of population NA 19 Diesel pump for irrigation DSR (2009) 20 Electric pump for irrigation DSR (2009)

21 Percentage of Net Irrigated Area To Geographical Area By DSR (2009)/WRD Surface Water 22 Percentage of Net Irrigated Area To Geographical Area By Sub WRD surface water 23 Fertilizer Consumption (kg/ha) DSR (2009)

24 Indicators culture Yield of All Crops (Wheat & Paddy) DSR (2009) Environmental/Agri

25 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

25 Percentage of Bio-Farming villages in total villages Statistics Department 26 Cropping intensity Land records (2013) 27 Livestock Population Land records (2013) 28 Poultry Population Land records (2013) 29 Percentage of Reserved Forest area to geographical area Land records (2013)

30 Percentage of Conserved Forest area to geographical area Land records (2013) Forest Forest

31 Percentage of Revenue Forest area to geographical area Land records (2013)

32 Indicators Number of JFM Communities Annual report, Forest Department Environmental/ 2010 33 Net ground water availability for future irrigation development WRD (2009)

(ham-2009)

34 water Ground Water Availability (ham-2009) WRD (2009) Environmental/

35 No. of Hospital District Statistics report (2009)

36 No. of health center District Statistics report (2009) Health Environmental/ Sensitivity 37 Literacy Rate (2011) Census (2011) 38 Density of Population (2011) Census (2011) 39 Sex-ratio (2011) Census (2011) 40 Proportion of Child Population In The Age Group 0-6 (2011) Census (2011)

41 Percentage of People Below Poverty Line (2011) Census (2011) 42 Percentage Share of Marginal Workers (2011) Census (2011)

43 Percentage of Schedule Tribes population (2011) Census (2011) SocioEconomics 44 Percentage of Schedule Caste population (2011) Census (2011)

45 Percentage of Households With Access To Safe Drinking Water Land records (2013) (away) 2013

26 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

46 Percentage of Net Irrigated Area To Geographical Area By Ground DSR (2009)

Water tors

47 Percentage Share of Agricultural Workers DSR (2009)

48 Percentage Share of Cultivators Workers DSR (2009) Environmental/ Agriculture Indica Agriculture

49 Percentage of wasteland to geographical area Land Records (2013)

50 Percentage of waterlogged area Land Records (2013) Forest Forest Indicators Environmental/ 51 Water level trend (cm/year) CGWB (2009)

52 Water Quality (SAR) CGWB (2009) /water Environmental 53 Animal and Hospital ratio DSR (2009)/ Land

records

54 Poultry and Hospital ratio DSR (2009)/ Land

Health records 55 Population /Health practitioner (Doctor compounder and nurse) DSR (2009)/ Land Environmental/ Records

Table 9- Indicators of Secondary data collection (*DSR- District Statistical Report, LR- Land Records, KVK- Krishi Vigyan Kendra, CGWB- Central Ground Water Board)

Vulnerability calculation method The exposure and sensitivity aspects are linked, and together express the potential impacts on the analyzed systems, being positively associated with vulnerability. On the contrary, adaptive capacity expresses the potential of the systems to effectively cope with the impacts and associated risks and is negatively associated with vulnerability. Consequently, the functional form of vulnerability could be:

V =f (PI-AC) (1) where V is vulnerability, PI is Potential Impact (=exposure + sensitivity), and AC is Adaptive Capacity.

Higher adaptive capacity is associated with lower vulnerability, while higher potential impact is associated with higher vulnerability. Adaptive capacity, includes both physical and sectoral (Agriculture, Water, Forest and health) vulnerability and their socio-economic attributes, e.g. technological development, access to resource, and governance of the sectors as the way in which society adapts to changes in sectoral resources may be more critical than resource availability. The vulnerability of any sectoral system can be defined as the degree to which

27 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

the analyzed systems may be unable to function under environmental and socio-economic changes, specifically changes either arising from or bringing about adverse conditions (i.e. scarcity, shortages, resources variation, and deterioration etc.). A comprehensive framework is needed to assess its multifaceted nature, considering the different vulnerability dimensions, i.e. natural, physical, economic, social, and institutional. Such a framework had been proposed in this study, and was also applied in six blocks of Tikamgarh. All blocks were facing certain scarcity or stress conditions due to climatic variability, and/or lack of adequate infrastructure and proper governance mechanisms.

The proposed framework was used to assess the degree to which the systems (i.e. resources, uses, and users) were vulnerable to adverse related conditions, and to identify potential adaptation strategies for vulnerability mitigation. The adopted framework enabled the comprehensive vulnerability assessment of all the chosen sectors, as well as the analysis of the systems’ potential for improvement through the assessment of different adaptation strategies.

The proposed vulnerability assessment can be used for development programmes and, in the context of climate change, for adaptation and resilience programming; however, it can also be used in future for sectoral investments in all three thematic areas where consideration would be given to ranked vulnerable communities and ecosystems. It had also been focused where and how to invest in the priority sector. The proposed vulnerability assessment can be used for development programmes.

Steps to measure Vulnerability Index (VI)

The VI index for a specific sector (Agriculture, Forest and Water) is typically based on a number of indicators which determine the vulnerability of that sector to climate vulnerability/change. Construction of vulnerability index for each sector will have the following general methodology.  Identifying and defining the indicators: Indicators are selected according to assumptions, baseline considerations and limitations for each sector.  Quantification of indicators: Indicators are quantified, based on secondary data sources.

Step1 - Normalization: For aggregation purposes, each indicator is normalized to render it as a dimensionless measure or number. Values for all the indicators are to be standardized for all the blocks.

Indicator Index (Ix) = Ia – I (min)/ I (max) – I (min)  Where, Ix = Standardized value for the indicator  Ia = Value for the Indicator I for a particular block  I (min) = Minimum value for the indicator across all the blocks  I (max) = Maximum value for the indicator across all the blocks

Step2: Profile Indicator Index Values are combined to get the values for the profiles

28 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

n Profile (P) = ∑ i-1 lx /n  Where, n – number of indicators in the profile  Indicator Index i- Index of the ith indicator

Step 3: Components Values of the profiles under a component are to be combined to get the value for that component.

n n Component (C) = (∑ i-1 Wpi Pi) / (∑ i-1 Wpi )

 where Wpi is the weightage of the profile i  Weightage of the profile will depend on the number of indicators under it such that within a profile each indicator has equal weightage

Step 4: Vulnerability Index The combination of the value of the three components will give the vulnerability index.

Vulnerability Index = f (exposure, adaptive capacity, Sensitivity)

Scaling in done from –1 to +1 indicating low to high vulnerability

4.3. Result and Discussion

4.3.1. Secondary Data Analysis The study is focused on facilitating the decision makers to present the drill-down version of the CVI (Composite Vulnerability Index). The drill-down is performed sectorally along the same concept presented in the explanation of Composite Vulnerability Index.

Sectoral Index for Vulnerability of the district with respect to Social Indices (SI), Vulnerability of district with respect to Economic Indices (ECI) individually and combined as Vulnerability of district with respect to Socio- economic Indices (SEI), Climate Indices (CLI), Vulnerability of State with respect to Water Resources Indices (WRI), Vulnerability of State with respect to Agriculture Indices (AGI), Vulnerability of State with respect to Forest Indices (FVI), Vulnerability of State with respect to Health Indices (HLI) and these five combined as Vulnerability of the district with respect to composite Environment Indices (ENI) have been derived, using the indicators shown in the table above using the relevant sector/sub-sector for arriving at the individual indices. This drill-down exercise is to help the decision makers to prioritize the development activities in any chosen district by identifying the sector which makes that district vulnerable. Fig15 depicts the relationship between the CVI and the sectoral index. Discussions on these sectoral indices are presented in the following paragraphs on sectoral issues.

29 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 10. Blockwise Vulnerability Index (Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity)

Profile Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Niwari 0.55 0.33 0.43 Prithvipur 0.30 0.38 0.43 Jatara 0.44 0.59 0.54 Palera 0.39 0.45 0.21 Baldeogarh 0.24 0.40 0.36 Tikamgarh 0.74 0.48 0.61

Table 11. Blockwise Sectoral Vulnerability Index (Composite, Social, Agriculture, Water, Forest and Health)

Composite Social Agriculture Water Forest Health LVI LVI LVI LVI Profile LVI Rank (S) Rank (A) Rank (W) Rank LVI (F) Rank (H) Rank Niwari 0.45 3 0.60 2 0.38 4 0.80 2 0.22 5 0.02 6 Prithvipur 0.25 5 0.47 4 0.23 6 0.23 5 0.19 6 0.08 4 Jatara 0.50 4 0.49 3 0.35 5 0.83 1 0.94 2 0.07 5 Palera 0.63 1 0.84 1 0.61 1 0.12 6 0.25 3 0.96 2 Baldeogarh 0.28 6 0.28 6 0.44 3 0.56 4 0.24 4 0.15 3 Tikamgarh 0.62 2 0.32 5 0.56 2 0.77 3 0.99 1 1.04 1

(a) (b)

30 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

Fig 15. Composite Vulnerability Map (a), Social Vulnerability Map (b), Agriculture Vulnerability Map (C), Water Vulnerability Map (d), Forest Vulnerability Map (e) and Health Vulnerability Map (f).

4.3.1. A. Composite Vulnerability Index The composite vulnerability worked out from 55 indicators related to Exposure (9), Sensitivity (29) and Adaptive Capacity (25) in social, Agriculture, Water, Forest and Health sectors. The composite vulnerability parameters (in Table 5) of all sectors indicated that if values exceed 0.5 in the set categories then a block can be considered as a highly vulnerable block with low adaptive capacity whereas the blocks categorized in less than 0.5 might be having better adaptive capacity, though vulnerable. The inferences drawn from the vulnerability table indicated that Palera block is the most sensitive and highly vulnerable in Tikamgarh district.

Tikamgarh block was 2nd in rank whereas Niwari was 3rd. The findings further indicated that Jatara, Prithivipur and Baldeogarh ranked 4th, 5th and 6th respectively as vulnerable blocks. It is evident that necessary steps need to be taken to enhance the adaptive capacity through development programmes in Palera, Tikamgarh and Niwari blocks to bring them in the mainstream of development by supporting the priority list provided in the figure below (Figure No.15).

31 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

4.3.1.B. Social Vulnerability Index Palera, Niwari, Jatara, Prithivipur, Tikamgarh, Baldeogarh are ranked high to low vulnerable blocks respectively in Tikamgarh district. The basic infrastructure needs such as roads, water accessibility at HH level, electricity, sanitation, education etc. have not been fulfilled so far in these blocks.

The term ‘adaptation to optimize resource use’ may be secondary for the community but the well-structured governmental plan and schemes such as MNREGA, SRLM, Balram Talab, Pulse panchayat, KVK involvement in crop intensification, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Nirmal Bharat Abhiyan has addressed the recent environmental and climate (e.g., land use, soil/water quality, food and health security) challenges.

4.3.1.C. Agriculture Vulnerability Index The composite vulnerability parameters of Agriculture sectors indicated the blocks above 0.5 fall in the category of highly vulnerable blocks as their adaptive capacity is low, whereas the blocks categorized in less than 0.5 (though vulnerable) might be having better adaptive capacity.

The comprehensive analysis of the data sowing vulnerability in the agriculture sector determined that the most vulnerable block of the district was Palera, followed by Tikamgarh. It was also recorded that Baldeogarh, Niwari, Jatara and Prithivipur ranked lower than Palera.

4.3.1. D. Water Vulnerability Index The water sectors indicated that Jatara, Niwari and Tikamgarh were the first three highly vulnerable blocks whereas Baldeogarh, Prithivipur and Palera were counted as less vulnerable. Jatara, Niwari and Tikamgarh blocks fall in the ‘safe to semi critical’ zones category but the value of more than 0.5 can be taken as a serious threat and immediate action is required to develop water management plan for these regions. Climatic water stress mapping with sectoral interest such as seasonal agro-irrigation, industry-water, domestic-water, urban- rural-water-pressure, can be used as an adaptive mechanism for efficient use of water resources in the block.

4.3.1. E. Forest Vulnerability Index The forests of Prithivipur, Niwari, Baldeogarh, Palera seem less vulnerable, where LVI ranges 0.19 - 0.25 reflect that their adaptive capacity is also high, which clearly demonstrates strict adherence to implementation of the Working Plan. Tikamgarh and Jatara depict high vulnerabity, LVI was 0.99 and 0.94 respectively, which perfectly matches with the pressures from forest fires, cattle grazing, encroachment and illegal harvesting. Some adaptive measures should be initiated with immediate effect - such as surveying, mapping, and demarcation of forest boundaries as well as installation of permanent boundary pillars. Natural rejuvenation through assisted natural regeneration and implementation of agro-forestry, silvi-pasture development and social forestry programmes, along with the control of species prone to overexploitation.

4.3.1. E. Health Vulnerability Index Tikamgarh block was found to be highly vulnerable among all other blocks of Tikamgarh districts where LCI ranges from 0.02 to 1.04. The value after calculation appears to be non- significant due to the poor quality of the available data. Due care should be taken in collection, recording and tabulation of the data to draw logical conclusion for health. Similarly, in terms of shortage of human and veterinary hospitals in the districts, the timely healthcare and life expectancy are always under threat. Therefore, some remedial measures must be adopted for maintaining the good health of human beings and livestock.

32 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Some of the prophylactic measures as developing a team of rural men and women as medical Para extension professional who can advice and attend the commonly found diseases in the society, awareness camps on outbreak of diseases, adoption of prophylactic measures, animal camps, vaccination campaign etc.

4.3.1. F. Suggestions The findings of the study indicated that the government needs to take serious steps to improve the health facility and Forest resource management in Niwari block.

In case of Prithivipur block, it was recorded that the Forest, Agriculture, and Water needs have to be prioritized in an ascending order. The concerned departments, stakeholders, policy makers and authorities may use this result as a base to prioritize the area to address the vulnerability in the block.

Fig 16. Priority Areas to address Sectoral Vulnerability in different blocks of Tikamgarh District

4.3.2. Primary Survey Analysis

4.3.2.A. Survey Instrument The development of a suitable questionnaire was an iterative process and lasted around 1-2 hours with each respondent. Initially, an internal consultation was conducted between DA and DFID team regarding the issues to be covered in the surveys, set of questionnaire and sample size. Based on the data requirements for the empirical analysis and discussions with stakeholders, questionnaires were formulated in English. The survey instrument was categorized into the following nine sections: (i) Household Details, (ii) Migration Status, (iii) Housing Conditions, (iv) Land, Crop and Livestock Details, (v) Awareness and Access to Govt. Interventions and Schemes, (v) Consumption and Health Expenses, (vi) Health and Food Security, (vii) Household Assets, (viii) Loan, Credit and Savings, (ix) Impact of Climatic Aberrations and Adaptation (Farm and Non-Farm Based). Questions were asked regarding the details of each of the above listed aspects to the households and recorded. Most of the questions were close ended and responses were recorded as nominal, ordinal or scale variables. The survey was conducted with the help of field surveyors who were given an in-depth orientation about the purpose of the survey and the process of undertaking the same.

4.3.2.B. Sampling Design The sampling design is one of the most crucial aspects of this research and the present study adopted a stratified random sample design. The stratification was done for all blocks (Annexure -Table1) with agreed sample size at 1:500 Households for the survey. The targeted primary data analysis was further correlated by the secondary data vulnerability matrix to cater top to bottom and bottom to top the state of agriculture, water and

33 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

forest sectoral performance. Accordingly, blocks were ranked between 1 to 6 in terms of: (i) Sensitivity and (ii) Adaptive capacity.

The sample sizes of chosen villages of these blocks were also equally distributed. The complete list of villages falling under these blocks was taken randomly. Villages were categorized into the ones that lie (i) close to forest and (ii) the village is well representative of all three sectoral areas viz. water, agriculture and forest.

4.3.2.C. Preliminary Findings from the Survey As described in the preceding section, household level data was collected from 594 households in Tikamgarh district for the study through questionnaires. This section describes the preliminary findings that emerged from the data and the profile of the sample.

The data, illustrated in the table, indicated sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the primary survey of six blocks of Tikamgarh district. The data indicated that the highest sensitivity was recorded in Prithivipur block while its adaptive capacity was the lowest. In order to capture the sensitivity, eight indicators were used (as given in Table 1). Each indicator of sensitivity also recorded their vulnerability in color code and ranked 1 to 6. In case of Tikamgarh block, the sensitivity was slightly lower than that of Prithivipur block. As far as the sensitivity of Niwari, Jatara, Palera was concerned, it was almost at a uniform level. Baldeogarh block was discovered to be the lowest in terms of sensitivity.

Among the eight parameters (Table 13) worked out to draw the sensitivity, it was recorded that in case of Prithivipur, only three parameters depicted a high vulnerability trend. Rest of them were distributed between rank 2 to rank 5. It can be concluded that much greater attention needs to be given to induce sensitivity among the people by focusing on other mentioned parameters according to their ranks.

Table12. Blockwise Vulnerability Index based on Primary Data (Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity)

Blocks Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity

Niwari 0.38 0.48 Prithvipur 0.54 0.33 Jatara 0.38 0.59 Palera 0.41 0.34

Baldeogarh 0.30 0.36

Tikamgarh 0.50 0.41

34 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 13. Exposure and Adaptive capacity of the stakeholders

Parameters Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

0.43 0.72 0.39 0.48 0.33 0.48 Sensitivity Household Head’s Profile

Income, Occupation and 0.45 0.64 0.19 0.42 0.37 0.66 Sensitivity Consumption Profile

Sources of Income 0.44 0.33 0.29 0.30 0.26 0.29 Sensitivity (Primary Income Source) Sources of Income (Secondary Income 0.33 0.25 0.38 0.52 0.33 0.41 Sensitivity Source)

0.21 0.40 0.49 0.43 0.58 0.84 Sensitivity Migration Profile Sensitivity Reason of Migration 0.53 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.44 0.36

0.39 0.86 0.55 0.41 0.08 0.35 Sensitivity Assets

Land, Crop and Livestock 0.23 0.71 0.39 0.39 0.06 0.62 Sensitivity Status

Adaptive Govt. Interventions to 0.53 0.42 0.60 0.40 0.19 0.52 Capacity provide livelihood security

Adaptive Allocation of funds under 0.57 0.42 0.62 0.44 0.30 0.41 Capacity the livelihood schemes

Adaptive Coping Mechanism 0.35 0.27 0.63 0.15 0.42 0.39 Capacity adopted by community

Adaptive Availed funds for Coping 0.78 0.16 0.35 0.43 0.74 0.66 Capacity Mechanism by community Perception of households Adaptive regarding farm based 0.53 0.38 0.51 0.41 0.26 0.29 Capacity interventions

Adaptive 0.11 0.35 0.81 0.18 0.22 0.19 Capacity Government Schemes Rank Rank 1 Rank 2 3 Rank 4 Rank 5 Rank 6

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The adaptive capacity ranks of six blocks of Tikamgarh (as depicted in Table 13) revealed that the adaptive capacity of Jatara block was the highest while the adaptive capacity of Prithivipur, Palera, Baldeogarh and Tikamgarh recorded a similar trend of adaptive capacity. In case of Niwari block, the adaptive capacity was slightly better.

The plausible regions of higher adaptive capacity might be the implementation of government welfare schemes, coping mechanisms adopted by the farmers and better perception to deal with climate aberration to sustain livelihood. The efforts of the government through developmental schemes to enhance the socio-economic status of the community were beyond doubt as per the data gathered from the blocks. However, the development schemes launched by the government for the prosperity of people couldn’t make the desirable dent to harness the required benefits.

4.3.2.D. Analysis of Primary Survey The inference of each table has been captured in the annexure and its inferences have explained below that what all has contributed towards ranking sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each block of Tikamgarh district (in the Annexure Table 1).

From Table 1, it can be observed that the blocks Niwari and Tikamgarh are the ones that are highly sensitive, having rank 1 and 2, whereas they rank 2 and 3 respectively in terms of their adaptive capacity which is quite good.

Sample villages for conducting the household surveys were identified from the ones satisfying the above criteria and checked for the availability of baseline income data for households. Finally, the primary data collection was conducted to test the questionnaire in the villages. Household selection for the survey was drawn randomly and surveyed, based on their availability and willingness to participate in the survey. In all, 594 households were surveyed, which had captured an all-mixed group of people. Annexure Table 2 shows the sampling design adopted for the present study and the social groups that participated (Annexure Table 2).

It was also observed (during the exploratory visits and the pilot survey) that the head of the household is the one who takes all the decisions for the family and other members in the household follow his/her decisions. Therefore, the data for the present study was collected from the head of the household, so that she/he can recall the economic activity of the family and also answer about the selection of coping mechanisms adopted by the household.

Household Profile: As described in the preceding section, the sample size of the present study is 594 households, which have been further categorized in different social groups (General, Other backward Class, Schedule Tribe and Schedule caste) in two villages. The average household size in the sample is approximately five members and one child. The age of the head of the household is around 43 to 47 years in different blocks, with the youngest head being 43 years of age and the oldest one aged 47 years. The level of education (number of years of education) is skewed, with the average years of education being 8 years and the minimum and maximum varying from 4 to 8 years respectively in these blocks. A small proportion of the sample (2-8%) possesses technical education / privately trained skills of traditional knowledge which is generally used for generation of secondary income. Approximately 40 percent of the head of the households are reported of having dropped out of school during some stage of education. The primary reasons for dropping out include helping in household work, not being interested in continuing further studies and sometimes also due to the inability to pay the school fees.

36 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 3 presents the descriptive statistics pertaining to these indicators. Next is the case of self-help groups (SHG) in the sample. A SHG is a registered or unregistered group of micro entrepreneurs, having homogenous social and economic background, voluntarily coming together to save small amounts regularly, to mutually agree to contribute to a common fund and to meet their emergency needs on a mutual help basis (RBI, 2008). Hence, they are financial intermediaries owned by the poor. These groups are usually started by pooling the voluntary savings of the members on a regular basis. These voluntary savings are pooled with resources from external banks to provide interest bearing loans (nominal interest rates) to their members during their time of need and hence such loans provide additional liquidity or purchasing power to the borrower for use in production, investment, and consumption activities. Formation of these groups was also an additional task under the interventions in the study area (Annexure Table 3).

From Table 3, it can be observed that 13-35 percent of the sample has membership in the local SHGs. Further, it is found that the penetration of these groups is more among beneficiaries compared to the non-beneficiaries. In fact, 75 percent of the households are male-oriented groups and less than 25 percent of women group have a membership in these groups.

It should be noted that government funded crop insurance / agricultural credit schemes are targeted at those households having a Kisan Credit Card (KCC). Under the KCC programme, registered farmers receive a passbook against which they can get an agricultural loan for a pre-specified crop from banks and crop insurance is granted to pre-notified crops. Hence, KCC is a prerequisite to be eligible for the government schemes. In view of this, analysis of data from the study area reveals that 90 percent of the households in the study area don’t have this card. It emerges that the penetration of disaster / crop insurance in this region is negligible and further implies that majority households are excluded from the various government sponsored schemes to compensate against losses from climatic aberrations and extremes. Similarly, female headed households are few in the sample, with only 0-16 percent households reporting to be headed by females.

(ii) Income, Occupation and Consumption Profile: As described in the previous sections, the objective of the adaptation and resilient interventions was to increase the income of the households by providing them opportunities for livelihood diversification. The analysis of the sample data confirms similar trends. Comparing the primary sources of income for the households, we find that the average income of the households during last year has increased as compared to that of five years ago. The primary income during last year ranges from INR 24,000 (Prithivipur) to INR 40,341 (Tikamgarh), which was INR 23,307 and INR 35,865 five years before respectively. Similarly, the average secondary income has also increased from INR 32,250 (Prithivipur) and INR 18,723 five years back to INR 28,521 and INR 14,025 during the last year respectively (Annexure Table 4).

From table 4, it can also be observed that the total income (income in constant prices) of the households has increased by around 7.9 percent (Prithivipur) and 15.5 (Tikamgarh) percent during the last five years. Further, table 4 reveals that the consumption pattern of the households has exhibited challenging trends. The Prithivur block’s average consumption profiling has increased around 28.7% whereas the increment in the case of Tikamgarh is only 18%.

While the average annual consumption expenditure for the full sample was INR 21,650 five years ago, it has increased to INR 32,300 during last year (both measured in constant prices). Similarly, the medical expenses incurred by the households have increased during the period of measurement. While the average annual medial expenditure was INR 1,640 five years ago, it has risen to INR 2,800 during the last year, exhibiting an increase of approximately 73 percent. From table 4, it is also evident that the incidence of climatic extremes has also increased in the study area. While the wage days lost due to the incidence of such extreme events stood at a low

37 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

of 18 days five years ago, the same has increased to 22 days during current times. Looking at the different sources of income for the sample, it is found that for the majority of the households, agriculture is the primary source of income. While 51 percent of the beneficiaries report agriculture and allied activities as their primary sources of income, 58 percent of the non-beneficiaries depend on agriculture for the same. Very few households have business, income from govt. schemes, rents and other activities as their primary sources of income (Annexure Table 5).

In the same vein, around 60 percent of the households either don’t have any secondary source of income or depend on salaried employment as an income supplementing activity in each block (Jatara and Baldeograh are more vulnerable). A small proportion of households report the sale of assets (land, building and livestock) as a secondary source of income (which varies from 12 percent to 25 percent, such as Niwari (12%) and Tikamgarh (25%)).

(iii) Migration Profile: Migration is an important indicator of the adaptation point of view and socio-economic set-up of any region which reflects the employment opportunities present in an area. People migrate in search of employment opportunities and in turn contribute to increase in consumption of the households by sending back remittances to their households. (Annexure Table 6 shows the migration profile in the present study area) Table 6 depicts that all blocks varying between 15-20 percent of the households in the sample have migrant members. Similarly, the number of migrating members in these households is also constant at 4 members per migrant household. In other words, the people who opted to migrate five years ago continue to do so even now. While the average remittances from migrant members used to range from INR 2,531 (Baldeogarh) – INR 18114 (Niwari) five years ago. While 24 percent (Jatara) to 66.7 percent (Tikamgarh) of the sample was reported of having migrated due to incidence of climatic aberrations and extremes like droughts and rainfall gaps five years ago, which has marginally increased to 2 (Jatara) to 11 percent (Prithivipur) during the last year. The average months of migration used to be around 0.3 months (Niwari) to 2.1 months (Baldeogarh) five years ago, it stood around 1.4 months during last year. However, almost the entire sample (86 percent) agreed that the level of migration has decreased in their villages now as compared to earlier times. The places for migration have not changed over the last decade and migrant members generally travel long distances (seasonal migration) outside the state for seeking work. Around 48 percent (Baldeogarh) and 32 percent (Jatara) also migrate to outside districts and states respectively for seeking employment (Annexure Table 7).

It can also be inferred from table 7 that the primary reason for migration is for employment in the lean season (11% in Prithivipur to 37% in Baldeogarh), followed by 2 (Baldeogarh) to 6.7 (Prithivipur) percent migrating for repayment of loans. This has also not changed during the last five years. The migrant members are mostly employed in unskilled work and relatively few find employment as semi-skilled and skilled workers. However, employment of migrants as semi-skilled and skilled employees has increased during the last five years. Majority of the households state that migration has had no impact (neither on the economic or social front) of the family. It is important to note that around 26 (Niwari) to 46 (Baldeogarh) percent of the migrants opine that it has some positive economic impact on the family and around 2 (Niwari) to 8 (Palera) percent feel that migration has led to a negative social impact on the family. Migration due to medical emergencies and health requirements has increased in the sample during last five years. Around 22 percent of the sample had to migrate due to this in earlier times (5 years ago) which increased to 47 percent (Baldeogarh) to 82 percent (Tikamgarh) during the previous year.

(iv) Living Conditions and Assets: The source of water for drinking and cooking information reveals some interesting findings that has captured during data collection. Interviewer had observed that the access of household to piped drinking water had increased during the last five years and dependence on tube well and

38 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

open dug well had reduced. Similar trends have been exhibited for sources of water for cooking. Although access to private owned toilets has decreased over this time, access to shared toilets has increased over the last five years.

Looking at the value of household assets, it is found that the average total assets owned by the households in the sample is around INR 3.2 lakhs (Baldeogarh) to 10.7 lakhs (Prithvipur) but is skewed with high standard deviation and range varying between INR 0.39 – 7.4 lakhs (Annexure Table 8) .

Similar trends are also exhibited for other items for household assets. While the ownership status has not changed much during the last five years except for a few households, the higher value to asset owned could be attributed to the general price rise over the years. The average value of agricultural land is around INR 2.06 lakh (Baldeogarh) to 7.7 lakh (Prithivipur) while that for homestead land is INR 89,375 to INR 203809.5 (Prithivipur) respectively. The average value of agricultural machinery and tools is also skewed and stands at a low of INR 31,863 (Prithivipur) to 8984.2 (Baldeogarh), while the same for electrical equipments and furniture is INR 2,658 to INR 1,712 respectively. An average inventory value of INR 1,198 to INR 22,347 is also owned by the households in the sample.

(v) Land, Crop and Livestock Details: The total agricultural land ownership in the sample remains unchanged at 1.7 acres (Baldeogarh) to 4.2 acres (Prithvipur) over last five years, but the skewness has slightly decreased in Niwari, Palera and Jatara, though a few households have reported a marginal increase in the ownership of land in the respective blocks, particularly in Baldeogarh and Prithivipur. However, the irrigated land has only increased in Prithivipur and the rest has remained the same over the years. While five years ago, the average irrigated land was 2 acres (Jatara) to 3.3 acres (Prithivipur), it has increased to 0.2 acres during the last year. Most of the farmers cultivate around two crops a year, but only a handful of big farmers are now cultivating around three crops a year. The input cost of cultivation has almost doubled in Jatara and Palera over the last five years from INR 14,865 during 2009 to INR 25,518 in 2014 in case of Jatara. Correspondingly, the output value from crop production has slightly increased during the said time. While it stood at INR 35,202 five years ago, the same has increased to approximately to INR41, 400 during the previous year. The ownership of big ruminants have remained the same from an average of 1 (Palera, Jatara, Prithivipur) to 4 (Tikamgarh) per household during 2008 to during 2013. The ownership of small ruminants though has changed with an increasing trend over the years (Annexure Table 9).

(vi) Awareness and Access to Govt. Interventions and Schemes: Community benefitting schemes through other developmental interventions of the govt. are also being implemented in the study area - like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), Indira Aawas Yojana (IAY), Rajiv Aawas Yojana (RAY), State Rural Livelihoods Mission (SRLM) / Mission Shakti. The MGNREGA is an Act that provides livelihood security to the households in rural India, supplying at least hundred days guaranteed wage employment to every household. Similarly, the IAY / RAY scheme aims at providing affordable dwelling structures to the households on a mutually contributory basis. The SRLM / Mission Shakti aims to provide sources for diversification of income and income enhancement. Table 10 presents the participation of households of the sample in these programmes.

It can be observed from Table 10 that maximum households in the sample have benefitted from the MGNREGA programme. A substantial share of the households has participated in this programme (more than 50% in each block). However, the participation in other governmental programmes is very low in the study area, with less than 20 percent of the households benefitting from these interventions. Like approximately five percent of the

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households in the sample have benefitted from the LP subsidy. Table 11 reports the receipt of funds and contributions made by the households in these govt. interventions.

From the households who have benefitted from the MGNREGA programme, the average participation was around one member per household. Each beneficiary family has contributed around 25 man days (Baldeogarh) to 74 man days (Jatara) per annum in the programme and has received an income of approximately INR 12,050 to INR 4831.5 respectively. Similarly, two percent of the household have received funds from the SRLM. From the different ongoing housing schemes, the average funds received stands at around INR 37,750 (Niwari) to INR 47,000 (Jatara) and average funds contributed by the households are around INR 6,500 to INR 2,500 respectively. The beneficiary households, on an average, have received around INR 922 (Niwari) to INR 1211 (Jatara) from the LP subsidy, though the number of beneficiaries is quite small.

(vii) Impact of Climatic Aberrations and Adaptation (Farm and Non-Farm Based): The incidence of drought, hail storm, erratic rainfall and rainfall gaps in terms of number of days are reported during the summer cropping season (June -October), when paddy is grown in the study area. The direct impact of droughts and rainfall gaps is the resultant crop loss due to unavailability of water in the growing periods. Adaptation and Coping describe actions taken to cope with changing climate conditions (for example - changes in the cropping system to suit the climatic aberrations, soil texture and structure). They also refer to the specific efforts undertaken at the micro and macro level to address the risk of such extremes and aberrations. At the outset, the government projects were not designed with any climate change objectives in mind. Nonetheless, the nature of poverty reduction (income enhancement) and the benefits of increasingly sustainable and diversified livelihoods (groundwater recharge and assistance for creating water resources) are such that the project contributed to people’s ability to cope with climatic aberrations or extremes or, in other words, enhance the adaptive capacity in the present study region. At the household level, the following coping options are identified that could be in use in the study area to cope against climatic aberrations and extremes: (i) Selling of Livestock, (ii) Selling of Household Assets, (iii) Use of Loans and Credit, (iv) Selling of Land, (v) Use of Govt. Relief, (vi) Interest free transfers from Friend and Relatives, (vii) Use of Past Savings, (viii) Migration and (ix) Insurance. Out of these, the most preferred means of coping are: use of loans and credit (62% in Tikamgarh and 60% in Baldeogarh) and selling of livestock (48% in Palera and 30% in Jatara). Selling of land and Migration used to be the preferred coping mechanisms five years ago and households might not be responded well but data shows that dependency on govt. relief (which is negligible in all blocks) is not one of the coping mechanisms. The details about the relative use of these options and the average amount of funds generated through these options are presented in Table 12 and Table 12a.

These options are not mutually exclusive and households choose to employ any measure or a combination of measures (both farm and non-farm based). With regard-to farm based options for coping with extreme events, we find the following measures in use in the study area: (i) creation of water harvesting structures and water sources, (ii) soil and moisture conservation activities (Field & Contour bunding and Check Dams in the field), (iii) changing of cropping system, (iv) use of drought tolerant varieties, (iv) farming system diversification, (v) use of zero tillage technology and resorting to alternative sources of income through rearing of small ruminants. (Table 13 presents the changes witnessed by the households due to the government or non-governmental schemes.) The most noticeable increase because of the interventions relates to the increase in the groundwater level in the fields. Around 44 percent of the sample has witnessed an increase in the groundwater level with the average level of increase being around 1.3 feet over last five to ten years. Similarly, 43 percent of the households have noticed an increase in the water holding capacity of the land and 46 percent report the increase in the number of cropping seasons respectively. Due to these interventions, 54 percent households report that there has been an increase in the level of farm output and revenue over last 10 years. The value of crop loss due to climatic extremes has considerably decreased over the last decade. While the average value of crop loss stood at INR

40 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

4,300 five years ago, the same stands at INR 1,600 during the last drought season. Similarly,, the percentage and scale of crop loss has also reduced over the years. The average percentage of crop loss stood at 36 percent five to ten years ago, but it has declined to 17 percent during the previous drought like condition. The average recovery time for the households for the consumption loss has also decreased from 32-35 days during the previous decade to around 2-3 days now. In the same manner, the recovery time for the loss of income due to crop loss has also decreased from 38-40 days in earlier times to 4-5 days during the last drought event. Finally, a high proportion (57%) of the sample opines that crop failure has decreased over the years due to the interventions (governmental and non- governmental). Similarly, around 71 percent of the sample feels that the incidence of climatic aberrations and extremes like rainfall gaps, and unavailability of water during critical times has increased during the last decade.

41 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

5. Adaptation Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change in Tikamgarh

To address the challenges emerging from the primary and secondary data analysis, a comprehensive sector-wise strategy related to Water, Agriculture, Horticulture, Animal Husbandry, and Forest was drawn from Madhya Pradesh State Action Plan on Climate Change Report (2014). Each strategy has been taken as the reference point to provide the suitable technology, adaptation, existing policy strength and possible outcome to address appropriate adaptive options, which are presented in the tabular form. It depicts, at a glance, the various activities which are being carried out in different departments to address the issues of climate change or vulnerability which further paved the path of adaptation. It may be pointed out that various policies and programmes in each sector are being executed to mitigate the aberration of weather, but it requires a more visionary approach for the welfare of stakeholders. The policy makers and practitioner can also derive benefit out of it.

5.1. Water resource sector and Climate change Adaptation strategies

Strategy Technology Adaptation Policy Strength Remarks Comprehensive -Rajiv Gandhi Drinking -Adding climate change/ MP Water Sector The database can water data base in water programme vulnerability scenario data Restructuring validate the public domain and (1:50,000) in existing data set can Project (WSRP) programme has assessment of the improve water resource achieved (i) impact of climate -Physical monitoring uses to all stakeholders Watershed increased water change on water systems are setup by development storage capacity, resources of the Water resource -Block level basin wise Fund which augmented State Department and Central surface water availability irrigation; (ii) Ground Water Board. and their future projection National Increased cropping including water quality are Afforestation intensity (iii) -No to limited study made essential and surplus Programme reduced runoff, on water basin at block water can be shared. which enhanced level prospective Mahatma Gandhi groundwater -Remote Sensing and GIS National Rural recharge; and (iv) based decision making Employment reduced soil loss. tool need to be prepared Guarantee Scheme -Scientifically plantation (MGNREGS) method need to be analyzed or adopted along National Rain-fed canal or river system; Area Authority Conservation method need to be strategized on Integrated priority basis Watershed Promote Command area Improved canal water Management Learning and accelerated pace of development and distribution and more Programme testing new case surface water completion or renovation water well use in head study on climate development in of canal system water area result in better Bundelkhand Proofing of

42 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

the state water availability in tail Package irrigation projects Lined and unlined Channel end area and avoid head in sensitive areas water drainage problems Participatory to Climate Change Irrigation are need to be Lined channel reduces the Management proposed seepage loss and it may (PIM) Act 2006 increases the area of irrigation Water Rain water harvesting and To achieve the maximum It is essential to conservation, Artificial Recharge water user benefits while identify of augmentation and minimizing the associated favourable areas preservation with Traditional water system environmental impact for Ground water special focus on (exploring and Development areas with over- maintaining) Role of PRI’s in rual areas within the over exploited and WUA’s in urban areas exploited area by conditions of Remote Sensing & ground water Legislation revision on GW GIS techniques. regulation and management State water authority and Adopt conversion based National Water model at panchayat/ block mission program level model using (Priority can be MNREGA or other over exploited associated fund zone) must be merged.

Promotion of traditional system including repair, renovation and restoration of water storing bodies

Increase water use Recharge Structure, Appropriate action on Schemes under Appropriate efficiency in maintaining existing Irrigation Technological irrigation, Wells and pump structure, futuristic vision Department adoption and domestic and installation irrigation on covering population adaptation can industrial purposes and their drinking water Command area improve Small water bodies and demand, irrigation and Development groundwater lined and unlined industry use on propose Authority recharge efficiency, channels structural and non rainwater structural measures for Department of harvesting, surface Water budgeting, water water storage against Agriculture water availability metering under Public different climate change for all sectors Private Partnership model and socio economic Watershed users.

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scenario can minimize the Management Common waste water livelihood shocks due to Programme Wise water treatment & recycling climate and hazard related practices and plant in rural (e.g. Grey uncertainty. Bundelkhand harvesting water use in agriculture Package techniques field, cleaning etc.) Incentive based (Necessary on mechanism may also Agriculture dept. building (Govt. & improve water use programs Private place and it efficiency and (mentioned can be monitored productivity. below) by student MGNREGA projects)

Appropriate pricing policy for water usage in industrial, agriculture and domestic aspect

Water use audit for industries and allied sector Promote basin Knowledge base – Basin A sound knowledge base National Water Guidelines of level integrated wide knowledge base of in the Natural and social mission different uses of water shed Institutional, socio dimensions can support Some program water management economic and biophysical decision and policy served indirectly: context makers in implementing National Integrated water evidence based Afforestation resource Climate and hydrological interventions. Programme management and impacts of water basin development availability and agriculture Mahatma Gandhi (Climate –Water- National Rural Integrated Agriculture-Hydropower) Employment watershed Guarantee development and Water related hazards Scheme management in (Water hazards) (MGNREGS) Climate sensitive areas Adaptation & livelihood National Rain-fed Promotion (Adaptation Area Authority Management plan and livelihood) for the river basin Integrated or sub-basin Integrated responses Watershed through improved basin Management Water resource wide cooperation and Programme modeling including capacity building quality aspect (Integrated responses) Bundelkhand Package Comprehensive Scheme for flood

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management and reservoir sedimentation

Regular Monitoring on source point of aquifers to facilitate natural recharge

Projects on water stressed areas to enable improved efficiency in water use

Capacity building Groundwater prospecting Capacity building at all Irrigation Training to level is needed to support department professional for Geo hydrological surveys communities and various institutions so that Water resource departments, Drilling technologies integrated responses, department Organization, such as Integrated Water PRIs/ULBs Water level and Quality Resource Management, Public Health and associated to monitoring can be developed Engineering address water effectively. Department resource and linkage of Climate Central Ground change water Board

Ground water planning and evaluation agencies

Water and land management institutions

Building Promotion of planned and A new over arching state National Water Integrating CC Institutional integrated conjunctive government apex agency mission concern and mechanism for use of or enhancing in existing Central Water programmes with Climate Change Institutional reforms, structure for water Commission the appropriate Action Plan resources to perpetuate Central Ground agencies Public investment the status quo on water Water Board supply distribution and Irrigation Strengthening Practical measures utilization for drinking, Department objectives national irrigation and industry water mission and

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need to be considered program therefore it is necessary to Campaign to educate manage the farmers through water conjunctive user association on the development of benefits of conjunctive water resources – a use of canal and ground balance is created water, crop diversification between local and land recharge and micromanagement groundwater use according to prevailing The impact of hydro-geological surface water off conditions. take doesn’t extend into the low river flow period check impact of water well abstraction until high river flow periods

5.2. Agriculture Sector and Climate change Adaptation strategies

S.No Strategy Technology Adaptation Policy Strength Remarks 1) Promotion of Micro and Macro Rate of water and nutrient Micro watershed It helps soil and soil & Water measures (Soil mulching, conservation can be programme nutritive losses. conservation deep tillage, plastic sheet enhanced technology mulches, contour bunding Supports the rate & trenches etc.) of runoff and soil erosion to maintain the productivity of the soil. 2) Development Trenches around fields, Avoiding moisture stress National Adequate yield can of water Injection well, drip and in drought situation Watershed be obtained under storage sprinkle irrigation, SRI development adverse climatic structure technologies etc. Providing life saving Program, Micro condition. irrigation during moisture irrigation stress schemes, Balram Talab, MNREGA 3) Planning Promotion of heat and Establishment of Seed village Improved crop Cropping drought tolerant crop community seed-bank. scheme management system varieties such as soybean, practices can suitable for wheat, paddy and maize minimize the effect each agro- etc. of climate change climatic Inter- cropping. Maintenance of land races Micro- on various crops.

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condition. of various crops which management could perform well in schemes (coarse adverse climatic cereals). condition. Adjustment of planting dates to minimize the effect of high temperature. Crop rotation Maintaining soil fertility as Rastriya Krishi nitrogen fixation and Vikas Yojana reducing and infestation (RKVY), of insect, pest and disease Intensive cotton development program. Crop diversification assured income at field National food level security mission. To meet ever increasing RKVY demand at household level for nutritional consumption Modify crop management Crop can be secured RKVY, Integrated practice (e.g. Line sowing, under water stress and cereal Broad bed & method of access condition development sowing,. Ridge & Furrow Yield enhancement program, ISOPAM, method) National Food Security Mission Resource Conservation Reduce cost of Micro technology. (e.g. After production, time saving management in harvest of kharif crop and adding carbon in soil Agriculture sowing of rabi crop Residual moisture engineering, without land preparation conservation RKVY to tap residual moisture) Exploiting Higher seed material NA biotechnological production in small area, techniques for idea plant reduce cost of production, type for adverse climatic time saving, tolerant. (e.g. tissue transportation culture, Biological marker) Nutrient Integrated plant nutrient Judicious use of chemical Integrated plant The State Management management (e.g. 1. Soil fertilizer nutrient Government has testing management and developed the Use of bio-fertilizers) balance use of various strategies fertilizer , for mitigation and National Biogas adaptation plan for and manure the Climate management Change. program, Adaption of

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State level integrated insect organic farming pest and disease promotion management projects. practices RKVY Popularized plant ISOPAM, based insecticide 2. Increase nitrogen use Nitrogen use efficiency of 2. State organic like neem, tobacco efficiency. (e.g. Use of crop enhanced farming and other plant Neem Coated urea) Volatilization and leaching promotion project derivates) of nitrogen reduced 3. Organic farming Physical properties of soil State organic maintained, farming Beneficial to human promotion project health Integrated insect pest and Strategy to reduce the Micro disease management (e.g. crop loss Management, All seed treatment with Protects soil and seed agricultural crop fungicides borne diseases, cost development To develop strategy for reduction and yield schemes including checking the life cycle of enhancement cash crops insects, pests and micro- pathogens coming up due to climatic variability.) Identify the new insect Entomological and NA pests and diseases coming pathological study need to up in changing climatic be done conditions.

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Enhancing Use of electronic mass Gaining knowledge about Various 5 disseminatio media like T.V, Radio, the agriculture government n of new & Mobile phone, Internet, technologies. schemes under appropriate Kisan Call centre. Package of practice of the various technologies crops. agencies (e.g developed by Publication of extension Weather forecast, Doordarsaran, research. literature for distribution decision making, Cost AIR, Department among farmers through reduction, income of Agriculture, punchayat and other PRIS. generation , market rates, Krishi Vigyan reducing crop and Kendra etc.) Field visits diseases impacts Krishi Rath Weather related forecast Training of farmers & up to block level. extension personnel. Various scheme and perfects for farmers. Market rates. Incidence of any insects pests disease and weeds. New agriculture products. Publicity of Agriculture events.

5.3. Horticulture Sector and Climate change Adaptation strategies

Strategy Technology Adaptation Policy to strengthen Remarks Promotion of soil 1. Application of mulching 1. Reduction in 1. M.P water shed re- Technology useful and water 2. Drip Irrigation water structuring project in view of rising conservation 3. Micro-Irrigation requirement 2.Micro Irrigation scheme temperature and technologies for program 2. Enhance water 3. RKVY reduction in water improving 4. Poly-House use efficiency availability for productivity. 5. Shed net 3. Assure irrigation production under stress condition Development of 1. Agro crops- vegetables Insure regular 1. National horticulture Crop diversification agro-horticulture (e.g Maize – lady income under rain mission will facilitate system for finger/chilly) fed condition 2. Badi project assure income and securing livelihood 2. Agro crops-fruits (e.g. Survival rate can 3.Integrated fruit employment for Soybean – Papaya) be enhanced development program attracting and 3. Agro crops- spices (e.g 4. Integrated vegetable retaining youth in Gram – Coriander) development program. the village 4. Agro crops- flowers 5. Development of Kitchen (e.g. Gram – Marigold) gardening Developing Scientific policies for Attractive Scheme 1. Block level Policies as per horticulture technology for need to be 2.District level agro-climatic policies and plans horticulture crop need to promoted to condition of the according to agro- be strengthen covert planting zone.

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climatic conditions and fruiting into enterprises mode (e.g. Food processing center, Farmer producer company etc.) Creating business Value additional Creating more 1. Entrepreneurship It can create fair hubs processing and opportunity to Development price mechanism; marketing develop 2. Rural haat, Market fairs reduce wastage, enterprises for 3. Training of farmers and developing youth and backward and interested farmers forward marketing network. Adequate research 1. Breeding strategies Better Seeds and 1. Research work in Zoning of selective and extension 2. Agronomic cropping agriculture university. crops and their support creating management techniques with 2. R&D of private sectors focused research cooperatives 3. Biotechnical modern need to be 4. Mitigation strategies techniques can be conducted to site for CO2 & GHG boon to ensure specific crops and 5. Plant protection productivity under their appropriate strategies extreme condition management 6. Post Harvest practices. technology 7. Training of officers 8. Training of farmers Palmalogy, floriculture, New varieties, Integrated fruit food preservation, package of development scheme protected horticulture practices Banana orchard Suitable varieties development scheme for the crop will be Integrated vegetable available for high development program yield and Promoting hybrid chilies monetary gain Crop value addition can minimize the risk of perishablity

Creating Seed producer company Strengthening of National Horticulture The producer seed cooperatives for Co-operative Cold existing and new Mission companies of the enhancing the Storage cooperatives can Department of Agriculture farmers will livelihoods of Marketing Network enhance the facilitate the marginal farmers livelihood of small availability of fruit, and marginal vegetable and farmers flower seed of Marketing good quality at strategy with cold reasonable price.

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storage linkages Small cold storage can reduce the with assistance of wastages of National produce and Horticulture support better mission may be prices. constructed at block level which can operated on cooperative basis by the farmers themselves. Market network for perishable produce of horticulture crops need to be strengthen for collection processing and market Building Prioritizing the integrated Alteration in National Horticulture Liaison with Institutional action plan under climatic existing extension Mission agriculture mechanism for lenses can ensure Department of Agriculture department would climate change productivity even be useful for crop action plan in the climate diversification to variable or sustain under extreme climate conditions. vulnerability.

5.4. Animal Husbandry sector and Climate change Adaptation strategies

Strategy Technology Adaptation Policy Strength Remarks Ensuring i) Azola production Feed and fodder i) Feed and fodder Horizontal spread availability of ii) Makka (Maize) fodder requirement can development scheme. of the scheme may adequate feed, seed production in Kharif be adequately ii) Fodder bank scheme be done to curve fodder and water iii) Berseem (Trifolium address for under Bundelkhand the problem of for livestock alexandrinum )seed livestock. special package feed and fodder production in Rabi. Water availability that can solve the of livestock scarcity issues. managed by local institute (Panchayat) need to be supported Ensuring nutrient (1) Mineral mixture and Mortality rate of i) National Mission for Distribution of solvency in food supplement Rearing calves (up Protein. Supplements mineral mixture livestock to two years of (NMPS) may be assured to age) can be ii) Calf rearing scheme improve Life reduced expectancy.

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Mineral mixture Milk productivity may be made and quality can be available locally maintained

Knowledge Govt may establish dissemination on animal feed plant Nutritive feed need at block level with to be promoted equipped laboratory Enhanced capacity Mass media To help animal i) Navachaar Protsaahan for disease rarer to know Yojana. Weather based forecast, Livestock practitioner about diseases in Go Sewak training vaccination system monitoring and advances. ii)e-Vet scheme to address control management Animal Camps (Rainy iii)Integrated sample of diseases and it season, summer etc.) In advance survey can be executed by information about iv)National Animal Disease following: outbreak of the Reporting System. diseases may be Upgradation of given for adoption district veterinary of prophylactic hospitals to measures polyclinics.

Upgradation of veterinary hospitals and dispensaries.

Providing vehicles to mobile units and ambulatory clinics.

Ensure adequate Aasra (Shelter), Not Creating life saving NA Similar program housing and executed in Tikamgarh system for sick, like Aasra need to dedicated water non-domesticated be initiated bodies for livestock livestock to overcome heat stress. Promote research Natural breeding of The improve i)Nandishala scheme It imbibes the on native species indigenous breed and breeds of animal character of highly breeding and upgradation of non- can be made ii)Sammunat Pashu tolerant to heat. rearing descriptive livestock available which can Prajanan Karyakram sustain with It also secures Artificial Insemination extreme conditions protein intake and and giving better additional income yield performance. source.

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Awards can motivate the farmers to speed up white revolution Promote use of Integrated Farming Organic manure Panchgavya production at It can reduce the livestock and System will be useful for Jabalpur (Not able in fertilizer poultry waste for improving and Tikamgarh) consumption at use as organic maintain the field scale and manure physical properties RKVY promote income of soil. activity.

It can be supplementary and complimentary to agriculture and allied sector system e.g. Crop- Livestock, Crop- Poultry etc. Promote new Financial support on Economic condition Subsidiary varieties of poultry Kadaknath (poultry bird) of the beneficiaries occupation for and native species can directly be income and of small ruminants Backyard poultry unit addressed where employment nutrition intake generation Financial support on with egg and meat improved breed of Goat production can be Financial assistance and Pig. enhanced. for Women centric program can be initiated: i)Subsidy on Goat unit distribution. ii)Subsidy on buck distribution. iii) Subsidy on poultry backyard unit iii)Subsidy on distribution of pig trio. v)Subsidy on Kadaknath chicks. vi)Rural backyard poultry scheme. vii)Establishment of goat farm at Tikamgarh.

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Integrated Crop-Livestock-manure The requirement of Indirect programs run by Self-sufficient in approach to (Cyclic) energy can be met MP New Renewable energy generation livestock Crop-Poultry-manure- out at local level Energy Development to and manure development energy (cyclic) through biogas address the same production and their consumption Work is being done in at lower cost can coordination with be achieved. MPWSRP It will be additional source of income generation to local people. Infrastructure for Milk cooler Production of milk M.P Cooperative Dairy Livestock owners processing, storage Milk Tankers and milk products Federation will fetch and transport of Refrigerate Van can be protected remunerative livestock products Milk Processing Unit and preserved for prices for their Milk powder () longer duration to produce. Auto Flavored milk filing use and get line plant(Ujjain) maximum benefit to the stakeholders. Encourage Sanchi dairy or Procurement and i) MP Co-operative Dairy Strengthening the formation of Dairy Society (community pricing of milk Federation (MPCDF) cooperative sector cooperatives based) produce for II)Dairy unit by bank loan can be encouraged stakeholder can be and subsidy by financial secured and equi agencies distribution of profit among the producers. Strengthen the Provide short term i)Establishment of training Strengthen the extension arm of trainings center at Saagar extension arm of the Animal ii)Residential training of the Animal Husbandry farmers in collaboration Husbandry department with IGNOU department Building Kisaan call center Queries about i)Government of India and The center will Institutional livestock rearing Madhya Pradesh addressed the mechanism for Short term training and their issues related to Climate Change program maintenance will yield, quality, be replied in Department of Animal disease, feed etc. shortest possible husbandry has created in the lens of time climate change cell to climate variability address the same. and change. Skill up-gradation of livestock owners can add their income substantially.

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5.5 Forest Sector and Climate change Adaptation strategies

S.No Strategy Technology Adaptation Policy Strength Remarks 1) Develop Afforestation and Community awareness National Forest Policy Degradation and forest reforestation in and involvement can 1988 depletion of forest management Working/Manageme secure and enhance the Madhya Pradesh State cover can be addressed plans for nt plan and Micro & open and scrub, and Forest Policy 2005 more scientifically different Annual Plan dense forest National/ State which intern to forest types Working Plan Code maintain ecological in view of CC Effective working plan Revision balance. preparation and execution need to be prioritized in a line of CC and vulnerabilities 2) Forest Assisted natural Activities under Natural National Forest Policy Interventions through conservation regeneration (ANR) regeneration program 1988 PPP model can reduce and through community Madhya Pradesh State pressure on forest and afforestation participation can be Forest Policy 2005 maintain biodiversity /reforestatio Compensatory induced their livelihood, and ensure livelihood n through affoestration soil and moisture security. viable conservation, growing models stock. Dependency on forest including PPP Watershed can be minimized by models development Community fencing promotion of under this can restrict agriculture and allied the entry of livestock in enterprises in the Prevention of fire the forest to avoid focused area. with community grazing. support and razing of forest tower In situ and ex-situ conservation for soil and water conservation

Supervision and surveillance by Fire watchers can prevent fire incidence. 3) Ensure soil Contour Bunding, In situ measures have National Water Right technology plays and water nallah bunding, been in practice which Mission pivotal role to upgrade conservation gabionic structures reflected in forest Forest area and measures in Trenching enrichment. National/ State resources. forest watershed mission management Technology intervention (e.g. Rajiv Gandhi Defunct structures need on open and scrub has Drinking and to be maintained for upgraded in forest cover. Sanitation longevity of above. programme) 4) Research on IBIS model Forest diversity need to MOEF&CC Provisioning, regulatory,

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impact of be conserved while supporting and cultural climate Dynamic vegetation knowing the prediction Forest Department services should also be change on model of Dry Savanna and (Ex-Initiation of Lok considered to improve forest types moist Savanna is Vaniki programmes) the model prediction and forest HadRM3 using projected to change to because supporting and based BIOME 4 vegetation Tropical seasonal forest State Forest research cultural services are ecosystem response model Institute often neglected from services Forest diversity can also climate change The Economics of addressed Tropical Forest prediction model. Ecosystem and research Institute Adding these services Biodiversity (TEEB) Species occuring in can evaluate the true model Several communities Tribal Development value of forest need to be conserved fund ecosystem services. Implementation of and propagated in in situ social forestry and and ex situ conservation forest extension to address 90% Shift in programmes with forest vegetation types. active participation of local people Pruning, thinning, top working of desired species need to be carried out for check the quality of changing in phonological and physiological characters.

Fencing, Fire watch towers can reduce extreme cases of mortality of tree species. 5) Capacity Division, district and Improve the Competency State Forest Training on climate building state training for all of foresters and JFMCs Department change and forestry to officials and staff for strengthening of all officials and staff to forest ecosystem Indian Council of abreast of latest Exposure Visit services. Forest Research and program and policies of Education, Dehradun National and Demonstration Development Training International concerns. manual of Tropical Forest Case studies procedure/methodology Research Institute Development of for assessing impact of (TFRI) operational guidelines Success stories climate change on for implementation of forestry and vulnerability State Forest Research programs foster to Biodiversity assessment including Institute (SFRI) improve ecosystem Conservation REDD+ and CDM services including mechanism Indian Institute of benefits of REDD+ and Forest Management CDM mechanism (IIFM)

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6) Promote Energy Plantation Promotion of agro Implementation of Energy saving and alternate (e.g. prosopis forestry model can National Solar Mission efficiency by source of julifora, acacia provide alternate source introducing solar and energy in nilotica, Khamar) of energy material. Wadi Program (BAIF- energy plantation can forest NABARD) reduce the pressure on villages and Solar lightning Solar lightning can save forest resources. adjoining fuel wood consumption Forest Department revenue Solar cooker for lightening, cooking (Plantation Adoption of effective villages and heating. programmes) technology can save the Energy efficient money which can be cook stove Fuel wood consumption National/State used for other and head load can be Bamboo Mission livelihood options. Wind Energy reduced by using efficient cookstove. MP New and Renewable Energy Department programme

State Rural Livelihood Mission and their schemes 7) Livelihoods Secondary Sustainable harvesting is Wadi Program (BAIF- To reduce dependency security of agriculture of Non key to ensure forest NABARD) on forest involvement forest Timber Forest resource vs. economy of of local communities in dependent Produce (NTFP) the dwellers that has Forest Department protection, communities been followed in all (Plantation management, Plantation and schemes. programmes) conservation and aesthetic promotion improvement of forest to conserve Rural tourism is in National/State resources have to be Community area practice in pockets which Bamboo Mission promoted. (Rural Tourism) can ensure engagement of youth as tour guide, Stakeholder can get Agro forestry model botanical and wild life State Rural Livelihood double income from expert and it creates Mission and their forest produce as well both livelihood and local schemes as crops in low fertile subject experts to save land. endanger species. Rural tourism can create employment generation and awareness about the conserving biodiversity for future generation. It can also establish the extinct species profiling of plant and animals due to climate change.

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8) Biodiversity Biodiversity park Flora and fauna of forest Department of Forest It will enhance the Conservation area will remain - MP State Biodiversity diversity of the area and Mapping and zoning maintained. Strategy and Action hence reduce the of endanger species Plan, (2002) incidences of outbreak Zoning can be strategies of pest and diseases. Biodiversity register to earmark the species Madhya Pradesh for income and Forest Produce Employment and employment generation. (Conservation of income options can be Biodiversity and created by introducing Biodiversity register will Sustainable biodiversity park which indicate the availability Harvesting) Rules, also supports the of various species, likely (2005) ecological equilibrium to be extinct, climate of flora and fauna. and drought tolerant and futuristic vegetation growth.

9) Enhancing Plantation (Road, Micro climatic conditions Schemes under: It supports the National green cover bund, open spaces can be maintained. mission on a Green outside etc.) Department of Forest India and national forests forest policy 1988. Municipal corporation The Tree outside forest Horticulture area can be increased Department etc. by introducing mix concept of agroforestry, social forestry and community forestry programmes with climate smart village concept. 10) Building Prioritized the Enrichment of forest by MP Vision Document It will form basis for Institutional technology the various technologies (2018) strong liaison with Mechanism developed at state can be adopted in the National and for Climate and National level district. National mission on a International Change green India organization to Action Plan The most effective showcase the technologies may be National Biodiversity technologies developed shared with REDD+ for Act (2002) to reduce emissions reducing GHG emission from forested lands and and conservation of invest in low-carbon forest paths to sustainable development.

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5.6. Institutional Capacity to Address Climate Change The development of water resources, agriculture and allied enterprises in the district is based on three major pillars of development system. One deals with a knowledge generating system, basically, engaged in evolving the new technologies, practices, pursuit and products etc.

The developed technologies are disseminated and transferred to a knowledge disseminating system which is principally an extension system engaged in diffusing the technology to the beneficiaries. So far, technologies related to agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry etc. are a district level concern.

5.6.1. Limitations of existing Structure to address climate change:  Lack of infrastructure at the block level to provide weather forecasting information to the community.  There are various schemes and programmes for the welfare of the farmers, however it is experienced that there is shortage of staff to harness the maximum output. At the same time, awareness among the farmers for the same is also weak.  The mitigation measures for climate change like the availability of suitable variety of crops and measures are not available in the required quantity.  Participation of primary rural institutions is lacking.  Stakeholder selection and participation to avail schemes and funds should be unbiased.

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5. Issues and Barriers to Mainstreaming Adaptation and their Recommendations Adaptation is inevitable to address the impact of climate variability in water, agriculture and allied sectors, as well as forests, but the adaptation strategy is impeded in many ways. Many issues and barriers to adaptation restrict stakeholders in terms of wide adaptation of sustainable agriculture, irrigation and forestry with innovative technologies to mitigate the aberration of weather and climate change. Some of the important barriers impending the growth of each sector are listed below: a. Agriculture sector

Agriculture and allied enterprises are commonly facing the following barriers which can be overcome by developing appropriate strategies under the lensof climate change/ variability:

 Communication barrier – farmers were not exposed to scientific knowledge fully; they have inadequate information about coping with climate resilience, though they are becoming increasingly cautious about local climate variability issues. In addition, they have limited understanding and access to adaptive measures given in the contingency plan of the Tikamgarh district. For example, the package of practices as guided by Krishi Vigyan Kendra, to deal with drought situation after sowing in kharif season, are not horizontally spread in the district.

Poor access to the information sources by stakeholders in the district is another constraint. The dissemination of weather information like rainfall, temperature, drought, crop management practices at the local level is inadequate due to lack of infrastructure.

 Technological barrier –Stakeholders’ attentiveness and attractiveness towards the technology to enhance the adoption rate are mainly dependent on the degree of the merit in the technology itself. It has basically five attributes to understand the barriers in adoption: (1) Economic viability – it should be comparable with the existing practices such as improved varieties of various crops as compared to indigenous varieties, wider use of technologies to harvest water, conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue retention), and use and transport water more effectively where drip and sprinklers are used ( (2) Compatibility – present and past experience of the technology consistency, altering the timing or location of cropping activities(3) Simplicity – easy to understand and use, (4) Divisibility – tested on a small scale for effectiveness of pest, disease control and maintaining or improving quarantine capabilities of the same (5) Communicability – using climate forecasting at block level to reduce the production risk, technology can be spread immediately if post and pre emergence weedicides can support the income; diversifying income through altering integration with other farming activities such as livestock raising.

Poor outreach of extension machineries (Grass root level officials) in interior villages and infrequent contacts of farmers with development agencies of various departments is limiting the acquisition of technical knowledge in the district. Gap in technology development and actual adoption by farmers – in spite of all the efforts of government and NGOs the technology of agriculture and allied sectors developed by the National Agriculture research system of the country and the state, hardly twenty five percent of technology reached and was adopted by the tillers of the soil in the district, as is evident from the productivity of various crops in the district.

The technology barrier alone can’t cope up with recent climate variability issues, the constraints need to be looked into seriously. Non-availability of short and medium duration crop varieties and required inputs like fertilizers, pesticides, lack of access to weather forecasting technology are influencing the adoption of mitigating

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measures. Constraint in shifting different cropping patterns, crop diversification etc. due to weak agricultural support delivery mechanism.  Bio-social barrier – Socio-economic barrier, agriculture technology to be seen as an -mportant route for poverty emancipation of the district, agriculture innovations are adopted slowly and several socio-economic variables of adoption remained poorly understood due tothe age, education, participation in local institutions, income, degree of cosmopolites etc of stakeholders.  Policy barrier – The government has launched a number of programmes for the welfare and prosperity of the farmers; however, the benefits of these are not being harnessed by farmers due to less publicity and infrequent contacts of development agencies to the common stakeholders. The strategy for execution of the programme need to be strengthened, including the selection of the beneficiary farmers which is based on socio-economic status, combining with recent composite vulnerable areas including the climate change. -  Market barrier – It has been seen that market linkages are very poor in terms of selling the farm produce, which always creates issues related to excessive competition, lengthy procedures, low transparency in the process, weak market system for fruits and vegetables, market hubs and mandis to support the minimum support price of various farm commodities. The farmers do not fetch a reasonable profit due to the involvement of middlemen in marketing of the produce in the district. b. Water sector

 Technological barrier

Check/Stop dam/Canal/ Bore well There are no standard technical guidelines and Schedule of Rates for construction of stop dams for the state, resulting in varying cost norms and technical parameters being used by different departments in the same geographical area without any proper justifications for such variance.

Construction of stop dam or check dam is a socio-technical issue. But, most of the executing agencies do not have any mandate and orientation for community mobilization. More so, there is no budgetary provision for community mobilization during or after the construction of the check dam.

There are technical problems related to the site selection, appropriateness of the design suitable to the site and construction quality. Lack of proper supervision mechanism and quality assessment through a third party leave enormous scope for being ineffective and unaccountable.

Name of rivers and Betwa, Jamuni, Ur, Dhasan and Jamdar lakes:

No. of dams, Sujara dam On Dasan river in BadagaonTikamgarh is going to be completed in next few embankments: years. Also, Tikamgarh district faces some issues of flood because of Maatateela dam, UP

Bore well/ hand pump During drought situations, most of the functional hand pumps do not work which is the source of drinking water. Provision of maintain hand pumps are also very poor.

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 Communication barrier

Lack of ability to integrate knowledge from disciplines other than hydrology into water resource planning compounds the problem. For instance, the irrigation departments, which deal with the bulk of developed water resources in the state, do not have professionals qualified in environmental hydrology, hydro-chemistry, agricultural sciences and irrigation economics. Often, observations are made by experts to change the curriculum of technical degree courses. Training institutions by far also lack an integrated approach. This is considered to be one of the reasons for the inefficient performance of irrigation sector in the district even after huge investments, both by government and international agencies (roughly Rs. 167,384 crore on developing major and medium irrigation schemes alone till Tenth Five Year Plan)

 Bio-social barrier

Water has a clear linkage to all the three development dimensions: Environmental, Economic, and Social. The challenges necessitate the need for a sustainable policy regime that facilitates Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) for efficient use of what is going to become a scarcer resource regionally. The matter is assuming greater urgency as the district/state rapidly urbanizes and undergoes industrial transformation, because the regional pattern in such cases is that water for urban and industrial use goes up substantially and reallocation of water between urban and rural areas as a result has the potential to create social tensions and even conflict.

An effective adaptation process in water resource conservation would also hinge on the ability of livelihoods, which includes social networks, cultural traditions and activities that provide food and income, to be sufficiently flexible so that no adverse impacts of climate change are discernible on the social system. Such enabling conditions would clearly facilitate a sustainable development process, but this would also require overcoming factors that cause vulnerability to climate change.

 Policy barrier

Developing policies for water allocation calls for a good understanding of the factors influencing: the demand for water and the human behaviour with regard to water use, including pollution, or the factors that are capable of altering the socio-economic systems determining the demands for water. For instance, what kind of policies in inter-sectoral water allocation is required at the basin level if water is very scarce at the aggregate level? People having a sound understanding of physical (agro-meteorological and climatic), socio-economic, institutional and cultural factors influencing the water demands are required here. The institutions for water allocation can include state regulations as well as market instruments such as property rights in water; water tax and pollution tax, water and electricity pricing etc. Deciding the nature of regulations (whether “top down” or enabling and location specific) and designing effective regulations require sound understanding of laws, and the complex social systems and cultures, apart from the characteristics of the water-related ecological system which is to be co-managed with water. c. Forest Sector

The issues and barriers that influence the adaptation of forest ecosystem to climate change includes:- dependency of the people on forest for fuel wood, wood for house construction, agricultural implements, illegal felling of teak trees due to high market value, grazing of huge livestock in forest areas and unsustainable NTFPs collection etc.

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There are climatic/natural issues causing injuries to forest crops including frost, drought, temperature, storm and lightning and floods. Non-availability of naturally dried and fallen wood in the forest has declined due to the increasing needs of human population from forests. Under such circumstances, people cut small trees and leave them lying in the forests to collect them after some days in the form of head load. This practice is causing large scale damage to the forest ecosystem. Also, there is lack of livelihood options leading to the sale of fuel wood to the nearby city areas.

There is also illegal felling of poles for Nistar6 purpose in the areas viz., Prithvipur, Niwari, Jatara, Orcha, Palera, Khargapur, Baldeogarh, Digoda, Lighora and Majna.

6 By Nistar, we mean a provision made under the Indian Forest Act, 1927 for providing to local people living within the 5 km radius of the forest some special privileges in the form of supply at concessional rate/free of charge of fuel wood, poles, bamboo and other forest produce for their own use, or consumption. The Nistar benefits vary from year-to-year depending on the quantity of the forest produce available in the year which is distributed through Village Forest Committees/Forest Protection Committees/ JFMCs/Gram Panchayats.

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6. Conclusion

6.1. Current climate change threats in Agriculture, Water, Forest in Tikamgarh district The study has analyzed weather parameters viz. Rainfall, Temperature, Evapotranspiration, Relative Humidity and Cloud cover. It indicated that vulnerability related to weather was more sensitive in Tikamgarh block followed by Niwari, Jatara, Palera, Prithivipur and Baldeogarh. The exposure value more than 0.50 indicates more stress conditions viz. Niwari block (0.55) in exposure table.

The impact has further compared with all the sectors and it was found the Tikamgarh block ranked highly vulnerable in Agriculture (Rank2), Water (Rank3) and Forest (Rank1) that clearly indicated the impact of climatic pressures. Overall composite vulnerability including health was also high in the block. It has been observed that on contrary to other sectors block has less vulnerability rank in Social Sector.

6.2. Stressors and underlying processes related to above threats The comparative livelihood vulnerability analysis as shown, Tikamgarh block ranked 3rd in secondary and 2nd in primary analysis. Thereby, concluding that there was no significant variation in primary and secondary studies so far vulnerability was concerned. The analyzed stressors are mainly related to income, occupation, migration, assets owned by the people including agriculture, forest, water, health and social accessibility and affordability by the community.

The Niwari block was less sensitive in secondary data having 6th rank where in primary data it was 4th rank. The pattern of primary and secondary data in each blocks are less diverse. Thus it has given strength to our study by conducting primary survey and adding additional points of working out the stressors.

6.3. Sensitivity to the projected hazards and perturbations: Resilience refers to the capacity of a social-ecological system both to withstand perturbations for instance responses on climate or economic shocks and to rebuild and renew itself afterwards (Stockholm Resilience Centre 2007b)7. Unseasonal rain, hailstorm and erratic rainfall are few examples which witnessed by the state in last few years, as such no study was conducted to observe hazardious situations at block level in the district. However, two recent hailstorm effect was experienced on rabi crops which has created havoc to policy makers. Situation got worse in case of rural community when all sectoral practitioners differ depending on their sensitivity to the hazards and perturbations to which the sectors are exposed.

This is well reflected in primary survey by the community and their impacts on overall productivity and livelihood which further leads to insecure their food consumption. Groundwater availability, Water quality for drinking and irrigation and depletion of forest, NTFP collections were also important issues related to hazard as pointed out by the communities.

7 Stockholm Resilience Centre. 2007b. “What is resilience?” http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/whatisresilience.4.aeea46911a3127427980004249.html

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6.4. Sectors/communities/populations be affected by these hazards and perturbations- correlation with current socio-economic trends and interaction with the above sensitivities The response of hazards in Niwari and Jatara blocks was more visible as compare to other blocks of Tikamgarh district. Increased visibility of research focused on vulnerability on sectoral issues with communities dimension in Madhya Pradesh and its associated terms – resilience, adaptation, and adaptive capacity – has spawned more research; scientists from adjacent fields such as climate impacts, natural hazards, and sustainability have turned their attention to vulnerability and resilience. But the terms remain contested, studies are fragmented or too aggregated to be useful to decision-makers, and policy relevance continues in short supply, particularly correlation of hazards and perturbation with socio economic trends.

6.5. Coping mechanism for stakeholders/community The adopted strategy from the earlier work of SKMCCC has been further fine tuned after analyzing primary and secondary data to provide and suggest appropriate technology support, adaptation tools, existing policy strength which can be supportive document for the implementer and decision makers to reduce the risk related to climatic and weather aberrations. Some suggestions are need to be immediately taken into in account such as establishment of knowledge platform contributing to policy formation leading to community empowerment, engagement of stakeholders for effective participation in drought mitigation actions, compensation for the damage cost by hail storm and erratic rainfall. The knowledge accumulated over centuries in the communities should be used for mitigation strategy at local level after validation of traditional practices through modern scientific methods.

6.6. Priority strategies for stakeholders to reduce the effects of climate change The development schemes run by the government agencies should be easily accessible to resource poor people of the community. The serious effort should be initiated to deal with the social, water, agriculture, forest and health issues of the community. The block wise priorities to take up the activities have been illustrated below.

Priority areas to address sectoral vulnerability in different blocks of Tikamgarh District:

Niwari Prithivipur Jatara Palera Baldeoga Tikamgarh

Social Social Water Social Forest Health Health Water Health Agri Forest Agri

Agri Water Social Health Forest Agri

Priority

Forest Agri Health Forest Water Water

Health Forest Agriculture Water Social Social

65 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

6.7. Lessons learnt and recommendations

6.7.1 Agriculture The policy makers may be abreast of Climate – Resilient interventions to test local models for enhancing adaptive capacity of the community. The interventions can be specific for a short term (a year) and long term (five years), partly due to adoption of ‘backward’ farming practices. A crucial step to build support in the government is to engage focal points in a Project Facilitating Committee (PFC) or other similar structures to deal aberrations. Departments (Agriculture and allied sector, horticulture, livestock, and local environment) of the district and local authorities, NGO’s, farmer cooperatives, businesses and community leaders can be involved in the planning and execution of the project. To support the Adaptation project, which has been emerging in India, it will be essential to work across sectors and levels, with agents with different expertise and government mandates. Because an intervention in one part of the system is likely to have repercussions in other parts, a sectoral view cannot encompass the full ecology and the human aspects of the farming system which stake the maximum livelihood in the district. For example, the choice of seed selection, crop variety, fertilizer use, water efficiency measure for replanting affects on landuse and microclimate, which cann’t be translated as a blanket approach. The various interventions need to be continuously harmonized. This process requires high levels of information sharing, discussion and cooperation. The blending of Science, Technology and local knowledge with stakeholder consultations by the PFC can insure to be very effective in creating a common understanding of the linkages in the farming system.

Conversions to certified organic farming have emerging interest of growers. Organic can be more stable commodity today, but organic farming also helps farmers avoid vulnerability to fluctuating agrochemical prices and support market linkages..

6.7.2. Forest The community forest concession system has significantly changed the organizational and institutional landscape in the district and has brought a higher level of sophistication and capability to the forest management regime. Key challenges for the future include simplification of the NTFP produce, process and the harmonization of the requirements to enhance the produce.

6.7.3. Water Rehabilitation of the irrigation system, check dams (small & medium) to reduce water loss and expansion of the capacity of storage ponds to cope with longer dry seasons due to climate change are essential for Tikamgarh district.

Training in sustainable land management, data base creation on GIS platform, river basin management, regular monitoring, water budgeting cum quality analysis both surface and subsurface were critically documented and raised in earlier vulnerability assessment report in Madhya Pradesh which should be prioritized and required immediate action.

The dealing above by region specific emphasis on water resource efficiency has obvious environmental co- benefits. It preserves water, resources, both agrobiodiversity and wild biodiversity (by preserving land). The adaptation cum mitigation project Enhanced Strategies for Climate-Resilient and environmentally sound agricultural production in River Basins of district can be aiming to contribute to the adaptation of vulnerable communities to climate change and to reduce the impact of agricultural practices on the environment provides that cab be a good example of tapping potential synergies. As composite vulnerability focussing on a multiple

66 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

issue (Social, Agriculture & Allied sector, Forest, Health) potential trade-offs with other issues have to be identified and addressed.

It uses an ecosystem approach that draws on nature’s contribution to crop growth – soil organic matter, water flow regulation, pollination and natural predation of pests – and applies appropriate external inputs at the right time, in the right amount to improved crop varieties that are resilient to climate change and use nutrients, water and external inputs more efficiently. A Climate Smart Adaptation approach adds a more forward looking dimension, more concern about future potential changes and the need to be prepared for them.

67 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

7. References

 http://www.tikamgarh.nic.in  http://www.mp.gov.in  http://www.maharashtraweb.com/MadhyaPradesh/MadhyaPradeshculture.htm  http://www.health.mp.gov.in  http://nrega.nic.in/homedist.asp?check=1andstate_name=MADHYA%20PRADESHandstate_  code=17anddistrict_name=TIKAMGARHanddistrict_code=1707andfin_year=2008-2009  planningcommission.nic.in/reports/sereport/ser/seeds/seed_agri.pdf  http://www.mpmandiboard.com/comp/comp1.htm  S.C. Gulati, Suresh Sharma, Population Pressure and deforestation in India, Population  Research Centre, Institute of Economic Growth, University Enclave, Delhi-7.  http://www.mpmining.org/index.html  www.planningcommission.nic.inreportssereportserbndelstdy_bndel.pdf  www.health.mp.gov.insurvey.HTM  A.M.Rajput, Department of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, J.N.Krishi Vishwa  Vidyalaya, College of Agriculture, Indore (M.P.); A.R.Verma, Department of Agricultural  Economics and Farm Management, J.N.Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, College of Veterinary  Science and Animal Husbandry, Mhow, Distt. Indore (M.P.), India. Impact of Watershed  Management Technology and Development Programme in Tikamgarh District of Madhya  Pradesh (India) 12th ISCO Conference Beijing 2002.  www.planningcommission.nic.inreportssereportserbndelstdy_bndel.pdf  India Nation Action Programme to Combat Desertification in the Context of UNITED  NATIONS CONVENTION TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION (UNCCD) Volume-I Status of  Desertification MOEF, New Delhi, September 2001  National Rural Health Mission, Meeting people’s health needs in rural areas Programme  Implementation Plan 2006-2012 State Health Mission Department of Health and Family  Welfare Government of Madhya Pradesh Bhopal  http://www.mppcb.nic.in/RWH.htm - Madhya pradesh pollution control board .  http://cgwb.gov.in/NCR/GWmonitoring.htm  Drought in Bundelkhand (Madhya Pradesh) Right to Food Campaign Madhya Pradesh and  MP Apda Niwaran Manch, www.mediaforrights.orgpdfsreportsredrought.pdf

68 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

 Impact of Mining on Water Availability and Quality - Experiences Compiled by Pankaj Kumar S, Resource Person and Ramya Gopalan, Research Associate Issue Date: 2 August 2007  From Pramel Gupta, Bhopal Rehabilitation, Bhopal Posted 3 July 2007  http://mpforest.org//developmentscheme.html  EPCO (2014) Vulnerability Assessment of Madhya Pradesh towards Climate Change, State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change (SKMCCC), Environment Planning and Coordination Organization (EPCO), Bhopal  Ummed Singhoya (2014) District Disaster Management Plan [DDMP] Tikamgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, In consultation with School of Good Governance & Policy Analysis, Bhopal Seeds Technical Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, District Administration,

69 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

8. Annexures

Appendix (Tables and Figures)

Table 1: Study Blocks in Tikamgarh

Sl. Study Blocks in Performance of overall Performance of overall No. Tikamgarh District Sensitivity rank Adaptive capacity rank 1 Niwari 2 (0.38) 4 (0.48) 2 Prithvipur 6 (0.54) 1 (0.33) 3 Jatara 1 (0.38) 5 (0.59) 4 Palera 5 (0.41) 3 (0.34) 5 Baldeogarh 4 (0.30) 6 (0.36) 6 Tikamgarh 3 (0.50) 2 (0.41)

Table 2: Sampling Criteria and Number of Households Surveyed in the Study Area

Sampling Criteria 1: Sampling Criteria 2: Random sampling of Village Performance of local vulnerability assessment (1:500 HH)

Blocks Beneficiary Villages N Social groups Niwari 88 G-19, OBC- 14,SC- 28, ST-26 Sendri Prithvipur Birorakhet 80 G-30,OBC-18,SC-21,ST-11 Madiya Jatara Vermatal 120 G-70,OBC-10,SC-22,ST-19 Kamal Palera Bamhorikalan 84 G-35, OBC-13, SC-30, ST-5 Kudyala Baldeogarh Teharka 102 G-37, OBC- 22,SC- 33, ST-10 Kodar Tikamgarh Heeranagar 120 G-51,OBC-24,SC-35,ST-11 kumraukiriya Total Beneficiary 594

70 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table3: Summary Statistics for Indicators of Household Profile

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Indicators Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min

Age of the Head 47 11 70 23 45.8 12.5 68.0 25.0 43.5 12.2 80.0 24.0 44.5 10.3 65.0 27.0 45.4 10.7 71.0 24.0 43.2 10.9 70.0 22.0 Number of Years of Education

of the Head

8 4.2 17 0 8 4.0 17.0 1.0 6.1 5 12.0 0.0 7.5 5 17.0 0.0 4.9 4 14.0 0.0 6.3 5 17.0 0.0 Training in Technical Education

/ Privately Trained Skills /

Traditional Knowledge

0.08 0.18 1 0 4.4 0.2 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 16.5 10.0 1.0 2.2 15.3 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 9.0

Membership in SHG

0.08 0.17 1 0 1.8 0.4 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.1 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 2.0 0.0 1.9 0.2 2.0 1.0 1.8 0.4 2.0 1.0

School Dropout

0.38 0.47 1 0 1.3 0.5 2.0 1.0 1.9 0.3 2.0 1.0 1.6 0.5 2.0 0.0 1.1 0.3 2.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 2.0 1.0 Possession of Kisan Credit Card (KCC)

0.9 0.3 1 0 1.8 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6

Female Headed Households

16 0.62 0.6 0.5 8.0 0.3 4.0 0.2 4.0 0.2 28.9 0.5

71 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 4: Income, Occupation and Consumption Profile for the sample

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Indicators

Mean (INR) Std. Dev. Max (INR) Min(INR) Mean (INR) Std. Dev. Max (INR) Min(INR) Mean (INR) Std. Dev. Max (INR) Min(INR) Mean (INR) Std. Dev. Max (INR) Min(INR) Mean (INR) Std. Dev. Max (INR) Min(INR) Mean (INR) Std. Dev. Max (INR) Min(INR)

Primary Income Now

000.0 29057.5 22195.0 160000.0 1800.0 24047.2 38532.4 250000.0 1000.0 21074.4 30708.6 250000.0 1000.0 32194.9 36341.3 240000.0 3000.0 26266.7 24993.1 184 5000.0 40341.2 56874.7 360000.0 2400.0

Primary Income 5 0

Years Back 25682.1 24148.0 150000.0 1000.0 23307.4 48646.5 300000.0 800.0 14286.9 19004.4 177000.0 1000.0 26831.8 26557.5 120000.0 1000.0 23133.0 21934.8 172000.0 4000.0 35865.6 54142.6 325000. 1800.0

Secondary Income Now 17338.2 11408.9 60000.0 2000.0 32250.0 39912.3 150000.0 1000.0 8386.0 6946.1 36000.0 1000.0 15888.9 8158.4 35000.0 3000.0 16205.9 10224.1 48000.0 5000.0 18723.1 11711.7 50000.0 2400.0

Secondary Income 5 Years Back 642.0 13337.3 11 90000.0 1800.0 28521.7 52671.3 250000.0 1000.0 8785.7 21937.3 180000.0 1000.0 15225.8 8456.6 40000.0 1000.0 13600.0 8700.4 39000.0 5000.0 14025.0 11726.3 60000.0 1800.0

Total Income Now

47881.8 26044.4 220000.0 3800.0 56297.2 37200.6 400000.0 2000.0 29460.4 25511.8 286000.0 2000.0 48083.8 32203.5 275000.0 6000.0 42472.5 21508.5 232000.0 10000.0 59064.3 41463.6 410000.0 4800.0

Total Income 5 Years Back 57.6 39972.1 23765.0 240000.0 2800.0 51829.1 40917.7 550000.0 1800.0 23072.6 20168.1 357000.0 2000.0 420 24431.8 160000.0 2000.0 36733.0 18197.9 211000.0 9000.0 49890.6 37300.0 385000.0 3600.0

Annual Consumption Expenditure Now 00.0 51812.0 26796.4 125000.0 14000.0 57500.0 37926.2 180000.0 30000.0 39844.0 15468.4 102000.0 12000.0 47604.2 23677.4 108000.0 140 51600.0 27661.2 225000.0 23000.0 55511.1 25628.1 144000.0 16000.0

Annual Consumption

Expenditure 5 Years

Back 63.0 34862.0 17797.0 100000.0 5500.0 40954.5 24969.7 122000.0 21000.0 32398.0 24233.4 154400.0 4800.0 38285.4 22964.6 124000.0 8000.0 38800.0 208 165000.0 17000.0 45511.1 26073.9 130000.0 13000.0

Medical Expenditure

Now 000.0 8678.0 16133.0 102000.0 300.0 17048.9 35596.0 200000.0 1700.0 6854.3 2996.6 14000.0 1800.0 7726.0 12160.9 70000.0 1000.0 11434.0 11829.4 60000.0 1000.0 11355.6 8761.8 44000.0 3 Medical Expenditure

5 Years Back

5681.0 9074.1 51000.0 500.0 4072.5 4062.9 25000.0 1000.0 4730.4 4744.2 32500.0 1000.0 4298.0 3260.7 18000.0 800.0 4968.2 2954.8 15000.0 500.0 6863.6 4521.7 20000.0 2000.0

Total Loss in Wage

Days Now 52.3 57.2 380.0 10.0 34.9 27.8 110.0 5.0 68.3 18.5 110.0 20.0 43.1 23.0 120.0 12.0 30.5 44.4 225.0 5.0 14.1 11.0 68.0 5.0

Total Loss in Wage Days 5 Years Back 32.2 18.6 80.0 10.0 25.0 25.4 75.0 2.0 76.4 38.5 180.0 16.0 33.3 14.2 70.0 10.0 12.2 11.9 60.0 2.0 11.3 8.0 35.0 2.0

72 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 5: Sources of Income for the sample (Primary Income Source)

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh e e

Primary Primary Income Source (%) Primary Income Source (%) Primary Income Source (%) Primary Income Source (%) Primary Incom Source (%) Primary Income Source (%)

Activities LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB Agriculture and Allied

23.1 26.7 26.1 38.1 28.1 20.0 19.0 28.9 19.1 19.7 43.6 43.2 Salaried

18.5 19.2 30.5 35.1 16.0 14.1 23.5 24.3 14.1 13.3 12.0 10.8 Business

31.3 31.1 20.0 24.4 43.3 0.0 24.1 22.5 27.0 27.6 22.5 35.1 Sale of Assets

0.0 0.0 21.2 0.0 6.0 65.9 0.0 0.0 8.4 9.5 20.3 9.6 Income from Govt.

Schemes

1.6 1.4 0.0 0.0

Rents

4.0 3.3 2.2 2.4 6.6 0.0 14.4 24.3 31.4 29.9 1.6 1.3 Others

21.5 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

73 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 5A: Sources of Income for the sample (Secondary Income Source)

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh Activities Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Income Income Income Income Income Income Source (%) Source (%) Source (%) Source (%) Source (%) Source (%) LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB LY 5YB

Agriculture and Allied .8 14.3 30.0 55.2 70.5 18.7 17.5 32 31.5 25.0 32.5 0.0 0.0

Salaried 11.2 19.2 6.7 3.6 14.5 10.9 25.4 31.1 16.0 18.2 20.0 18.8

Business 16.4 30.8 18.5 12.0 46.6 24.8 17.4 20.8 24.3 29.0 31.5 62.7

Sale of

Assets 12.0 11.4 12.7 14.7 41.9 0.0 0.0 13.9 20.3 25.8 15.9 Income from Govt.

Schemes 39.5 2.7 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8 20.0

Rents

6.5 1.3 1.3 5.4 5.0 17.4 16.6 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.7

Others

17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

74 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 6: Migration Profile of the sample

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Indicators

Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max

Migration Last Year 1.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 Number of Migrants Last Year 1.4 1.8 0.0 7.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 7.0 1.3 1.9 1.0 6.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 5.0 3.7 2.2 1.0 8.0 3.5 1.9 1.0 9.0 Migration Last 5 Years Back 1.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.7 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.7 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 Number of Migrants 5 Years Back 1.2 1.6 0.0 5.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 6.0 1.0 1.7 0.0 6.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 5.0 1.4 2.2 1.0 7.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 9.0

Remittance from Migration Last Year 55654.0 37180.6 5000.0 144000.0 19882.4 9841.8 10000.0 50000.0 17142.9 9302.1 5000.0 35000.0 37684.2 21432.2 14000.0 85000.0 22960.0 11509.0 10000.0 60000.0 51888.9 71450.4 1000.0 300000.0

Remittance from

Migration 5 Years 0.0 Back 37540.0 26324.1 4500.0 109000.0 15076.9 8606.8 6000.0 40000.0 11250.0 6826.4 0200 30000. 28294.1 18489.1 25000.0 70000.0 20428.6 10385.4 10000.0 50000.0 41111.1 51618.4 8000.0 200000.0 Migration due to Climatic

Aberrations / Extremes Last Year 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 42.2 0.6 0.0 2.0 93.3 0.4 1.0 2.0 24.4 0.6 0.0 2.0 53.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 66.7 0.4 1.0 2.0 Migration due to Climatic Aberrations /

Extremes 5 Years

Back 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.0 31.1 0.7 0.0 2.0 91.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 15.6 0.8 0.0 2.0 42.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 66.7 0.4 1.0 2.0

Months of

Migration Last Year .0 1.5 2.7 0.0 12.0 57.2 58.6 3.7 180.0 59.7 37.0 20 120.0 46.3 53.0 0.0 150.0 151.2 46.3 50.0 190.0 120.4 70.2 10.0 200.0 Months of

Migration 5 Years Back 1.5 2.8 0.0 11.3 58.6 54.6 9.0 180.0 84.6 49.8 30.0 180.0 46.0 64.0 0.0 150.0 129.1 47.3 50.0 180.0 129.3 44.4 28.0 200.0

Notice Reduction in Migration for

Village 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.0 22.2 0.8 0.0 2.0 4.4 5.4 0.3 40.0 15.6 0.4 1.0 2.0 31.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 28.9 0.5 1.0 2.0

75 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 7: Places and Reason for Migration

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

ars ars Back

Place of Migration Last Year (%) Year Last 5 Ye (%) (%) Year Last 5 Years Back (%) (%) Year Last 5 Years Back (%) (%) Year Last 5 Years Back (%) (%) Year Last 5 Years Back (%) (%) Year Last 5 Years Back (%)

Within District 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2

Outside District 12.0 14.0 2.2 13.3 8.0 4.0 10.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0

Outside State 34.0 34.0 33.3 17.8 32.0 32.0 22.0 16.0 48.0 38.0 37.8 37.8

Type of Work (%)

Last Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years

Unskilled 44.0 44.0 2.2 2.2 38.0 32.0 20.0 12.0 42.0 34.0 33.3 31.1

Semiskilled 6.0 4.0 26.7 22.2 6.0 8.0 12.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 4.4 Skilled 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reason for Migration

Last Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years Last Year (%) 5 (%)Back Years

Employment in Lean Season

8.0 34.0 34.0 11.1 4.4 2 16.0 20.0 14.0 40.0 34.0 37.8 40.0

Medical Requirement 2.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.2 0.0

Repay Loan 4.0 4.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.2 0.0

Others 10.0 10.0 20.0 15.6 0.0 4.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 0.0 0.0

Economic Impact (%) Last Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5

No Impact

22 30 0 0 2 0 10 12 0 0 0.0 0.0

76 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Positive 26 16 35.6 17.8 40 36 16 10 46 28 37.8 31.1

Negative

2 2 0.0 6.7 0 0 8 4 2 10 0.0 16.7

Social Impact (%) k Last Year (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last (%)Back Years 5 (%) Year Last Bac Years 5

No Impact 26.0 32.0 0.0 8.9 8.0 4.0 10.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0

Positive 22.0 12.0 24.4 13.3 20.0 18.0 4.0 4.0 42.0 20.0 37.8 31.1

Negative 2.0 2.0 11.1 2.2 14.0 14.0 20.0 12.0 4.0 16.0 0.0 16.7

Table 8: Ownership of Assets in the sample

Items Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

R)

Mean(INR) Std.Dev. (INR) Max (INR) Min Mean(INR) Std.Dev. (INR) Max (INR) Min Mean(INR) Std.Dev. (INR) Max (INR) Min Mean(INR) Std.Dev. (INR) Max (INR) Min Mean(INR) Std.Dev. (INR) Max (IN Min Mean(INR) Std.Dev. (INR) Max (INR) Min

Agricultural Land 81.3 369027.8 274012.0 1250000.0 30000.0 779875.0 1427020.6 7500000.0 20000.0 410652.2 587841.3 4000000.0 20000.0 445652.2 422688.0 1700000.0 50000.0 206734.7 167187.4 800000.0 30000.0 264772.7 2431 1000000.0 50000.0

Homestead Land 105612.2 92801.5 500000.0 10000.0 203809.5 209009.0 800000.0 30000.0 67200.0 47970.7 200000.0 10000.0 107344.2 85616.5 450000.0 10000.0 89375.0 35231.6 200000.0 50000.0 92840.9 51437.5 200000.0 5000.0

Land building and

Water Bodies 20900.0 12293.0 44000.0 12000.0 24458.3 22761.8 70000.0 4000.0 22387.4 10447.2 50000.0 12200.0 10522.2 6225.2 26666.7 12333.3 8984.2 4845.8 13723.5 1876.5 5113.9 3300.6 19166.7 1833.3

Agricultural

Machinery and Tools 19738.6 5203.5 28882.4 13388.2 31863.8 30867.0 188117.6 15205.9 41928.6 7373.9 64294.1 20964.7 41308.0 10564.4 61558.9 28623.6 8984.2 4845.8 13723.5 1876.5 33277.7 4197.5 41635.4 25629.5

Means of Transport .9 10003.7 2204.0 13571.4 6642.9 8401.0 3272.0 13286.0 1785.7 12562.6 8474 55142.9 8785.7 10310.5 4609.7 60714.3 45714.3 8106.0 2202.9 39714.3 31214.3 13413.0 3139.9 22142.9 7642.9

77 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Electrical 1 Equipments 1246.2 535.3 2724.0 610.6 2658.3 1398.7 6476.6 1139.4 1738.7 579.8 4294.4 977.8 1412.9 885.2 4288.2 440.0 1712.8 542.8 3461. 1169.4 1219.7 383.2 2288.2 760.0

Furniture 3259.2 1957.5 4606.3 1143.8 3806.6 2607.2 6875.0 1695.3 3089.1 2072.6 5175.0 1037.5 3150.2 2586.3 6100.0 750.0 2208.2 1301.5 3967.6 1063.4 3527.8 1637.8 4256.3 1750.0

Inventory 347.8 10590.0 7926.8 12142.9 1714.3 22 20867.2 48571.4 6429.3 14710.0 21952.0 44857.1 1000.0 4428.2 3067.6 4785.7 142.9 1198.6 606.8 3266.7 318.0 5722.8 6285.6 18214.3 900.0

Total Assets 965.7 540377.7 49616.7 1855927.0 75499.8 1077220.4 214725.4 8633326.7 80255.6 574268.6 85839.0 4423763.6 74 624128.4 67030.4 2314113.8 148004.1 327303.6 27095.6 1077856.7 117518.0 419888.5 39195.4 1307703.6 93515.7 Note: INR in Current Prices

Table 9: Land, Crop and Livestock Details for the sample

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Indicators Min Min Min Min Min Min Max Max Max Max Max Max Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean Std.Dev. Std.Dev. Std.Dev. Std.Dev. Std.Dev. Std.Dev.

Total Land for Farming .5 2.2 1.5 8.0 0.5 4.2 4.5 0.5 2.8 2.0 9.0 0.9 2.8 2.0 9.0 0.9 2.3 1.7 8.0 0 2.7 2.4 0.5 Now 24.0 10.0

Total Land for Farming 5 2.4 1.6 8.0 0.5 4.2 4.5 0.5 2.9 1.9 9.0 1.0 2.9 1.9 9.0 1.0 2.3 1.7 8.0 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.5 Years Back 24.0 10.0

Irrigated Land Now 1.9 1.0 5.0 0.5 3.3 2.7 0.5 3.0 2.0 9.3 1.0 3.0 2.0 9.3 1.0 2.1 1.5 8.0 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.5 10.0 10.0

Irrigated Land 5 Years Back 2.0 1.1 5.0 0.5 3.1 2.5 0.5 2.8 1.7 7.0 1.0 2.8 1.7 7.0 1.0 2.1 1.5 8.0 0.5 2.6 2.2 0.5 10.0 10.0

No. of Crops Cultivated

Now 1.9 0.3 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.2 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.7 5.0 1.0 2.0 0.7 5.0 1.0 1.9 0.3 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0

No. of Crops Cultivated 5

Years Back 1.9 0.3 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.2 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.6 5.0 1.0 2.0 0.6 5.0 1.0 1.9 0.3 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0

00.

Input Cost for Crops Now 0 0 0 0 0 9237.8 7400.0 5000.0 2000.0 2000.0 2600.0 3000.0 24318.1 111100. 42272.4 21362.3 214000. 25518.4 20607.5 2810 25518.4 20607.5 281000. 14862.8 11747.3 70000.0 36570.4 18515.9 180000.

Input Cost for Crops 5 Years Back 5763.8 2700.0 3800.0 5172.7 1300.0 5172.7 1300.0 9758.7 2000.0 2400.0 16223.0 65500.0 33254.8 17683.0 14865.5 41000.0 14865.5 41000.0 13326.0 64000.0 31840.7 17141.8 196000.0 168000.0

0

Total Production Value Now 0 0 0 0 0 0 5000.0 9000.0 6000.0 6000.0 6000. 34689.2 29351.6 160000. 55127.3 43177.6 240000. 41400.0 26722.8 130000. 41400.0 26722.8 130000. 35122.4 28423.4 184000. 66388.9 76770.1 360000. 11000.0

78 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Total Production Value 5 Years Back 3000.0 9000.0 5500.0 5500.0 8000.0 9000.0 34263.2 29385.3 66915.9 82033.4 35202.3 28878.9 35202.3 28878.9 31030.6 26043.5 60566.7 71394.2 140000.0 350000.0 120000.0 120000.0 172000.0 325000.0

No. of Big Ruminants Now 3.5 2.3 9.0 1.0 3.7 2.0 1.0 3.2 1.7 7.0 1.0 3.2 1.7 7.0 1.0 2.5 1.9 1.0 4.4 3.7 1.0 10.0 10.0 19.0

No. of Big Ruminants 5 .7 3.4 2.8 1.0 5.9 4.8 1.0 3.7 1.9 9.0 1.0 3.7 1.9 9.0 1.0 3.9 2.6 1.0 6.7 3 2.0 Years Back 13.0 28.0 10.0 16.0

No. of Small Ruminants 1.0 5.5 4.3 2.0 3.6 5.2 1.0 3.6 5.2 1.0 3.2 1.7 6.0 1.0 3.7 1.8 6.0 1.0 19.0 20.0 20.0

Now 202.2 488.5 1902.0

No. of Small Ruminants 5 0 1.0 6.9 2.0 5.3 6.9 1.0 5.3 6.9 1. 7.4 4.8 3.0 7.7 5.6 1.0 10.6 25.0 26.0 26.0 15.0 20.0

Years Back 124.6 393.4 2010.0

Table 10: Benefit from Govt. Interventions

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Govt. Interventions (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

Participation in MGNREGA 46 54 22 64 70 30 16 76 32 66 30 56

Participation in SRLM

4 96 2 86 2 86 2 86 12 86 42 46 Participation in IAY / RAY /

BAY 16 84 0 90 0 90 0 90 2 94 8 76

Participation in AAY

8 90 24 66 24 66 24 66 10 90 4 84

LPG Subsidy 10 90 12 78 12 78 12 78 0 0 10 76

79 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 11: Funds Statement for Govt. Interventions for the sample

Activities Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min Mean Dev. Std. Max Min No. of Members

participated in MGNREGA 1.7 0.6 2.0 1.0 5.7 9.9 30.0 1.0 10.4 24.8 90.0 1.0 1.9 0.5 3.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 2.0 1.0 1.1 0.4 2.0 1.0 No. of Man-days contributed in

MGNREGA 6.0 41.7 41.9 90.0 15.0 4 15.2 80.0 24.0 73.6 33.4 180.0 20.0 40.3 25.3 90.0 22.0 25.3 34.9 100.0 0.0 50.9 33.1 100.0 8.0

Income from

MGNREGA 0 8900.0 9634.8 20000.0 2700.0 8054.8 4742.2 17000.0 7.0 12050.6 5429.2 30420.0 3600.0 6622.9 6463.3 20000.0 2.0 4831.5 7619.0 30000.0 0. 9182.1 6820.4 20000.0 1400.0

Whether received any

funds from SRLM 1.8 0.4 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.2 2.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.1 2.0 1.0 1.9 0.3 2.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 2.0 1.0

Funds received from IAY / RAY / BAY / Mo

Kudia 37857.0 17141.0 71000.0 26000.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 47000.0 17888.5 70000.0 30000.0 45000.0 NA 45000.0 45000.0 70000.0 0.0 70000.0 70000.0 27334.2 38943.7 100000.0 1.0 Man-days

contributed to IAY /

RAY / BAY / Mo Kudia 6500.0 2121.0 8000.0 5000.0 2.0 NA 2.0 2.0 31.0 5.5 40.0 25.0 30.0 NA! 30.0 30.0 NA NA NA NA 1.8 0.5 2.0 1.0

Funds contributed

IAY / RAY / BAY / Mo

Kudia

19625.0 17435.0 60000.0 7000.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.0 8125.0 4836.9 15000.0 4500.0 9000.0 NA 9000.0 9000.0 NA NA NA NA 16001.0 18635.7 35000.0 2.0

Funds received from LP Subsidy 922.8 524.0 1377.0 243.0 1405.6 221.6 1750.0 1130.0 1211.8 186.7 1320.0 810.0 1152.7 196.1 1299.0 815.0 211.4 489.4 1326.0 0.0 1320.8 1.1 1322.0 1320.0

80 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 12: Coping Mechanism adopted through them

Means of Coping Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back

% S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D. % S.D.

Selling Selling of Livestock

NA NA

18 0.0 16.0 0.0 34.0 1.4 18 2.4 30.0 1.5 40.0 0.5 48.0 0.0 24.0 0.8 6 0 2 0 0 0

Sold Househol Assets d

NA NA

NA NA NA NA 10.0 1.5 6 2.0 20.0 0.7 16.0 1.3 4.0 0.0 2.0 2 4 0 0

0 Use Use Loans of and Credit

NA NA NA NA 12 4. 26.0 9687.0 8 1.7 26.0 1.1 26.0 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 60 0 2 0 62 12

Selling Selling ofLand

NA NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA 0.0 2.4 0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 NA 0.0 NA 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

Govt. Relief

NA NA NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA 0.0 1.1 0 0.3 0.3 2.0 0.3 2.0 0.0 NA 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.1 0.06

Transfers from a Friend nd Relatives

NA NA NA 4 NA 2.0 NA 2.0 1.1 2 1.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 2 0 0

A

Use Use Past Savings

N NA NA NA

6 0.0 2.0 0.0 10.0 2.5 4 1.7 22.0 3.1 20.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16 8 46 30

Migration

NA NA NA NA

2 NA 2.0 NA 2.0 1.6 0 0.0 20.0 3.6 20.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 4 16 6

Insurance

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 2.2 0 1.7 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 4 0 0

81 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 12A: Adopted Coping Mechanism and their Average funds generated

Means of Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh Coping

Years Years Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Years Back Present Times 5 Back

Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D. Mean(INR) S.D.

2

Selling Selling of Livestock 14756.0 19022.0 10563.0 8364. 4440.6 5917.1 8228.6 19487.3 3452.4 3255.4 2880.0 3179.6 14181.8 14469.4 12363.6 11552.3 22500.0 24748.7 30000.0 NA NA NA NA NA

Sold Househol Assets d NA NA NA NA 560.0 2122.9 400.0 2000.0 2285.7 2701.2 2384.6 2844.2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Use Use of Loans and Credit 30000.0 20000.0 13000.0 9899.5 19987.8 22890.6 3862.1 5159.8 11818.2 10079.2 6944.4 6692.0 17142.9 9063.3 10000.0 NA 44406.3 29599.3 5000.0 0.0 42954.5 51701.1 39250.0 43691.2

9

Selling Selling ofLand

NA NA NA NA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 571.4 1511. 375.0 1060.7 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 40000.0 40000.0

!

Govt. Relief NA NA NA NA 450.0 647.2 217.2 327.4 2676.2 2911.5 4184.2 2155.2 2980.0 2625.5 5000.0 NA 6500.0 707.1 NA NA 7000.0 2000.0 5600.0 3646.9

8.2

!

Transfers from Friend and Relatives 9500.0 777 5000.0 NA 435.2 2085.1 0.0 0.0 7590.9 20754.3 1035.8 1393.1 6000.0 NA 5000.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

.0

Use Use Past Savings 12500.0 10607.0 15000.0 NA 4933.3 6096.5 964.3 2252.3 6777.8 3423.1 6124.0 5254.4 9571.4 4237.0 11428.6 3207.1 8111.1 4961.0 9600 6693.3 15200.0 11881.4 18500.0 12935.7

Migration 52500.0 24749.0 27000.0 NA 3166.7 10825.4 166.7 816.5 10010.0 10544.2 8111.1 9455.1 23400.0 10089.6 31666.7 2886.8 25000.0 0.0 24000.0 1414.2 20500.0 11890.7 17500.0 2886.8

Insurance

NA NA NA NA 1304.3 6255.4 0.0 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 15000.0

82 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 13: Perception of households regarding farm based interventions and impacts

Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

Activities .D. Description of Description Mean S.D. Mean(FYB) S Mean S.D. Mean(FYB) S.D. Mean S.D. Mean(FYB) S.D. Mean S.D. Mean(FYB) S.D. Mean S.D. Mean(FYB) S.D. Mean S.D. Mean(FYB) S.D.

Field in the in Water 14 Ground

Increase Increase 0.12 0.33 0 1 0.28 0.47 0.04 0.21 0.31 0.45 0.07 0.24 0.36 0.48 0.04 0.20 0.02 0. 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.15 0.02 0.15

feet

Average

increase in increase

groundwater 8.6 5.6 0.7 16 3.14 4.78 NA NA 5.14 4.70 NA NA 15.72 4.17 0.00 0.00 5.00 1.60 0.00 0 NA NA NA NA

Field / Field Contour the field the

bundingor 22 Constructed Check dams in dams Check NA NA NA NA 0.24 0.45 0. 0.43 0.33 0.46 0.22 0.40 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.09 0.40 0.04 0.36 of

land

water water holding Increase in Increase capacity 0.12 0.34 0.08 0.28 0.18 0.40 0.10 0.42 0.24 0.42 0.07 0.24 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.14 0.32 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.50

for ant Last antLast

products

Use drought Use toler Year varieties varieties Year differentcrop NA NA NA Na 0.3 0.48 0.06 0.25 0.42 0.49 0.36 0.47 NA NA NA NA 0.08 0.27 0.10 0.31 0.04 0.21 0.02 0.15

the

seasons A cropping Increased Increased number ofnumber 0.1 0.45 0.1 0.45 0.24 0.45 0.12 0.34 0.44 0.49 0.27 0.43 N NA NA NA 0.04 0.20 0.04 0.20 0.02 0.15 0.00 0.00

farm

output increase in increase Noticeable Noticeable 0.22 0.44 0.22 0.44 0.24 0.45 0.24 0.45 0.46 0.50 0.36 0.48 NA NA NA NA 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.15 0.02 0.15

outputs revenue 2 Increase in Increase agricultural agricultural from sale of sale from 0. 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.28 0.47 0.30 0.53 0.54 0.50 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.49 0.36 0.49 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.14 0.91 0.29 0.02 0.15

83 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

0

condition Loss in INRin Loss forprevious like drought Value ofValue crop 20170 12759 18361 7058 10664.77 16160.57 3914.65 8636.29 6957.53 7178.79 6710.2 11303.86 12337.25 7222.97 9638.41 3973.81 6324.20 7426.70 3166.70 5913.30 19017.44 19618.20 21685.61 23284.34

previous condition drought like like drought Crop Loss for Loss Crop Percentage of

57.2 15.32 58.8 14.7 8.18 10.81 2.19 7.54 12.81 15.74 20.14 14.51 38.86 19.54 41.02 16.59 22.40 15.40 20.70 29.12 29.82 29.22 31.55

Crop

Did youDid Insure the Insure NA NA NA NA 0.24 0.51 0.04 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.27 0.08 0.28 0.11 0.42 0.11 0.42

ike ike condition

drought l drought

Recovery time for time Recovery consumption loss in consumptionloss monthsforprevious 5.7 3.7 4.5 3.4 2.78 2.95 2.92 3.40 4.98 12.55 5.47 12.95 3.11 2.81 2.89 2.42 3.00 1.10 2.80 1.90 3.68 1.07 6.00 0.80

11 income time for time Recovery 5.8 3.6 4.4 3.3 6.78 4.52 5.26 4.09 3.10 3.42 3.77 4.01 4.70 4.14 3.06 2.94 9.70 4.10 5.60 5.10 9. 4.76 5.74 1.51

loss is loss Do youDo reducing thinkcrop 0.96 0.29 0.96 0.29 1.87 0.34 1.53 0.67 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 1.80 0.40 1.90 0.30 1.93 0.25 1.98 0.15

the yearsthe

Do you think youDo think

increasing over increasing rainfall gaps rainfallare 0.96 8.7 NA NA 0.32 7.18 NA NA 1 9.06 NA NA 1.00 7.71 NA NA 1.90 0.40 NA NA 0.60 7.24 NA NA

84 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Table 14-Responses on Existing schemes in Madhya Pradesh

Agriculture/ Livestock/Water Niwari Prithvipur Jatara Palera Baldeogarh Tikamgarh

one Scheme Scheme penetration Need alteration in one existing Scheme penetration Need alteration in one existing Scheme penetration Need alteration in one existing Scheme penetration Need alteration in one existing Scheme penetration Need alteration in existing Scheme penetration Need alteration in one existing

Government Schemes Government % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev % Stdev

Seed village Program 0.54 0.00 6.00 0.33 97.77 0.14 42.22 0.62 100.00 0.00 20.00 0.55 58.00 0.00 34.00 0.64 100.00 0.00 54.00 0.31 10.00 0.00 24.44 0.46

Integrated cereal (coarse cereal)

10 0 0 0 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 28.00 0.52 2.00 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Integrated plant nutrient manageme

0 26 0.4 0 24.44 0.48 0.00 0.97 14.00 0.60 4.00 0.84 2.00 0.50 0.00 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

00

National watershed development program

0 16 4 0.46 2.22 0.82 2.22 0.20 22.00 0.43 8.00 0.70 20.00 0.44 4. 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.33 0.00 6.67 0.00

(1) (1) Wheat 84 0.39 0.15 2.00 97.77 0.00 48.88 0.63 70.00 0.17 30.00 0.57 96.00 0.00 36.00 0.57 96.00 0.00 46.00 0.39 10.00 0.00 22.22 0.49

(2) Pulses (2) 0.00 28 0.52 0.00 0.52 33.33 0.69 0.00 1.01 22.00 0.52 1 0.74 2.00 0.71 0.00 0.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Micro Micro irrigation projects

0 0 0 0 2.22 0.82 2.22 0.20 36.00 0.48 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

85 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Balram Balram talab yojana

30 0.53 0.25 0 24.44 0.48 2.22 0.94 62.00 0.18 4.00 0.31 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Soil testing program

74 0.52 0 12 91.11 0.00 55.55 0.55 66.00 0.17 12.00 0.44 66.00 0.00 44.00 0.35 80.00 0.00 46.00 0.20 77.78 0.00 22.22 0.39

urance

Crop ins scheme

72 0.28 0 0.39 31.11 1.90 4.44 0.96 64.00 0.32 4.00 0.33 28.00 0.00 22.00 0.29 38.00 0.00 10.00 0.53 31.11 0.00 2.22 0.00

00

Promote Farm mechaniz ation

2 0 0.79 0 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 8.00 0.53 0.00 1.15 10.00 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Establish ment custom hiring 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.84 0.00 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Supply of Bull (Murrah) 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 26.00 0.49 0.00 1.15 4.00 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Goat rearing scheme 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.11 0.81 0.00 0.81 50.00 0.40 2.00 0.72 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.45 2.00 0.45 2.22 0.00 0.00 0.00

0 Fodder/ Forage develop ment 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 32.00 0.45 2.00 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.55 4.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Special animal husbandry for hybrid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 0.00 0.00 52.00 0.31 6.00 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fruit Fruit Develop ment program 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.78 15.55 0.65 52.00 0.26 6.00 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

86 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

30 Vegetable development program 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.77 0.50 17.77 0.80 38.00 0. 8.00 0.47 8.00 0.00 4.00 0.58 24.00 0.00 16.00 0.00 17.78 0.00 0.00 0.00

Condiment and species developme 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.53 0.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.49 2.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 net net

Green Green house and house 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 16.00 0.61 4.00 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Horticulture

Kitchen Garden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.66 0.73 15.55 0.44 16.00 0.61 0.00 1.03 14.00 0.57 10.00 0.53 48.00 0.00 28.00 0.00 37.78 0.00 4.44 0.58

Vegetable area expansion scheme 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.66 0.79 4.44 0.44 32.00 0.45 4.00 0.78 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Demonstr ation/ Minikit Scheme 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.33 0.47 22.22 0.85 34.00 0.44 6.00 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 10.00 0.53 11.11 0.00 0.00 0.00

Protected cultivation of haorticultur 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 18.00 0.58 4.00 0.82 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Farmer’s Farmer’s training cum field visit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.44 0.47 11.11 0.79 36.00 0.32 6.00 0.78 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

00 Crop insurance based on season 32.00 0.00 0. 0.00 17.77 0.78 15.55 0.55 36.00 0.43 4.00 0.65 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.49 2.00 0.41 4.44 0.00 0.00 0.00

Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 18.00 0.58 4.00 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

87 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Forest of of

Launch Compensatory Afforestation Fund 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.84 4.00 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Capacity building in forestry 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.76 6.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

developm ent program me for 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.79 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

84 Intensification of Management Scheme: Forest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.76 4.00 0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Accelerat ed Program me for 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.79 4.00 0.84 4.00 0.58 4.00 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

clusion clusion In of Forestry within 30.00 0.42 0.00 0.00 37.77 0.68 20.00 0.83 12.00 0.63 6.00 0.83 30.00 0.46 10.00 0.88 42.00 0.00 24.00 0.47 31.11 0.26 13.33 0.00

India’s Forest and Tree Cover as .89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.22 0.63 0.00 0.18 0.00 0 0.00 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.41 2.00 0.41 2.22 0.00 2.22 0.00

(i) State Water Policy Water is a natural resource, a fundamental need of living beings and an invaluable national wealth. In the developmental planning of the state, water is a decisive and multifaceted component. In terms of environmental balance, an effective and sound water policy is vital for the skillful and planned management of water for all types of developmental activities, and its economic use on an equitable basis for all human and other living beings. Under the constitution, water resource is recognized as a state subject. State Water Policy is prescribed in accordance with the guidelines and general directions in the National Water Policy, keeping in view the specific necessity for the state of Madhya Pradesh. In view of the inter-state water disputes, the State Water Policy has a specific importance.

88 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

(ii) Highlights of Madhya Pradesh State Water Policy Madhya Pradesh also has a State Water Policy but it is in a draft form. In terms of allocation, the priorities identified are drinking water supply, irrigation, afforestation, power generation/ industrial and other uses, along with tourism. The state water policy lays emphasis on:

(a) Maintenance and modernization A time bound upkeep of the dams and canal systems will be carried out and time-to time programmes for their rehabilitation will be undertaken. It is an immediate need to reconstruct and rehabilitate the vast irrigation network of the state for future requirements.

(b) Groundwater development The policy states that the groundwater should be utilized only to the extent it could be recharged. For recharging the groundwater, different methods of construction of minor irrigation tanks/percolation tanks should be adopted. Priority will be given to exploitation of groundwater resources for drinking water purposes. Within the jurisdiction of municipal bodies, groundwater shall not be utilized without their permission for private use or any other purpose. If availability of groundwater is more than the requirement of drinking water of a municipal body, then the groundwater can be used for any other purpose, with due permission of the body.

(c) Drinking water and quality control The facility of sufficient drinking water shall be extended to the entire urban and rural population. The quality of the surface water and groundwater shall be tested on a regular basis by the concerned departments. It will be made mandatory to treat the industrial and urban waste to meet the required standards before these are allowed to flow in a stream.

(d) Rationalization of water rates Water rates should be such that they convey the beneficiaries the value of water, its importance, and motivate them for its economical use. Water rates shall necessarily be such that the project shall be self-supported. For the use of water for private purposes, rates shall be determined in such a manner that the water can be used strictly in accordance with the prescribed priorities laid down in the policy. Due to the importance of forests for protection of environment, concessional rates of water shall be fixed for afforestation.

(e) Participation in water management programmes To improve water planning, disparity in water distribution and non-accessibility of available services rendered to farmers shall be avoided, and the participation of beneficiary groups in operation and maintenance shall be ensured.

(f) Participation of non-governmental organizations In the water sector, the non-governmental agencies and commercial organizations will have financial and management participation. This type of participation shall be at all levels of project planning, construction and maintenance.

(g) Research in science and technology For effective and economic usage of available water resources, the State Water Policy advocates research in related areas like hydrometeorology, water quality, water harvesting, crops and cropping systems, river morphology and hydraulics, soil research, risk analysis and disaster management etc.

89 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Projects in Tikamgarh District Tikamgarh has been an area where traditional sources such as wells, tanks, and perennial streams formed the basic lifeline as far as water is concerned. After independence, when the drinking water became the responsibility of the state government, several rural and urban projects were planned. A brief description of these projects is as follows:

Urban Drinking Water Supply For supply to the Tikamgarh town, multiple sources are tapped to fulfill the demand. Water supply is mainly done from the river Jamni and its reservoir. In addition, several other sources, mentioned below, are used to keep the supply of the town going. a) Tal Darwaja well b) Bajaj ki Bagiya well c) Mahendra Baag well d) Haridas Mandir well e) Old Tehri well f) Mau Nala Bavri g) Hospital tube well h) Gol Quarter tube well i) Vinodkunj Tigela tube well

Besides the piped water supply, several hand pumps have also been installed in the town. These hand pumps are installed and maintained by the Nagar Panchayat, Tikamgarh. As far as the other towns in the district are concerned, piped water supply has been arranged for them also. However, there is no data available on actual coverage of the population through the formal water supply system. Even the habitations that are covered have low water availability, frequent pipeline breakages and an obsolete pipeline system which is the cause of the distribution being intermittent (where the number of hours is limited and pressure is low) and, hence, high standards of water quality are not ensured.

Several parts of the town do not receive water every day and the duration between successive supply of water increases from one to three ( or even four ) days during peak summers.

Irrigation Water Tikamgarh has been dependent mostly on masonry wells for its essential irrigation. In 1902, there were 14,800 wells in State. The number of wells has now considerably increased. There are 49,555 wells in the district, of which 43,806 are irrigation wells and 2,356 are abandoned wells. The usual means of irrigation through wells have been the Moth (the leather-bucket / rope) and the Persian Wheel; both powered by a pair of bullocks. This has been gradually replaced by diesel/electrical pump sets.

Tikamgarh district has several artificial lakes and tanks, from where canals have been taken out for irrigation. The latest major project that has significantly benefited the district is the Rajghat Canal that passes through several districts of both Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. It has recharged water levels in a large number of wells from where the canal passes. Another major initiative, that may have significant ramifications for the district, is the much debated interlinking of rivers. One of the first feasibility reports published is that of the Ken-

90 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment - Tikamgarh

Betwa link. This project proposes to provide irrigation in 74 villages in Niwari and Jatara blocks of Tikamgarh district, besides other areas. The project may, however, have significant environmental, social and political issues.

Rural Drinking Water Supply In the Survey of Drinking Water Supply Status in Rural Habitations, conducted in 2001, it was found that out of the total 865 inhabited villages in the district, 760 could be categorized as the problem villages. As per the guidelines, the problem villages were: - Those villages which do not have an assured source of water within a distance of 1.6 kilometres or within an elevation of 100 metres in hilly areas; - Those villages where the available water has excessive salinity, iron, fluoride, arsenic, nitrate or other toxic elements; or - Those villages where diseases like cholera, plague etc. are endemic.

Since then, all the villages have been provided at least one source of drinking water, mostly tube wells. In most of the villages, it has been observed that the sources start to dry up from January onwards and the situation becomes worse during peak summer months. Poor sanitation practices in the region add to the woes by spoiling the water quality also.

Climatology and District Profile of Tikamgarh District Tikamgarh district is located in the northern part of Madhya Pradesh. It forms the north-western part of . It lies on the Bundelkhand Plateau between the Jamni, a tributary of Betwa and Dhasan rivers. It is surrounded in east by Lalitpur district of Uttar Pradesh to the West, to North and Sagar to South.

The district is divided into six blocks viz., Niwari, Pirthvipur, Baldevgarh, Palera, Jatara and Tikamgarh. Tikamgarh district comprises of 1003 villages and 459 Gram Panchayats. The total geographical area is 5.04 lakh ha, out of which the net sown area is 2.56 lakh ha (50.07%). Forest area is 14%. Total crops in the cropped area are spread over 4.21 lakh ha and the irrigated area is 2.24 lakh ha (53.4%), with the cropping intensity of 154%. Most of the irrigated area (under 75%)is under well irrigation. The area under cereals, pulses and oilseeds is about 35, 25 and 40%, respectively. Out of the total land holdings, 72% farmers fall under the small and marginal class, with a total of 1.73 lakh farmers.

Drought , extreme heat , increase in temperature ,decrease in rainfall ,hail storm, as well as prolonged rainfall shortage are some of the absorbed phenomena of climate change in Tikamgarh district (reference: KVK) .The climate of the district is sub-humid, which is characterized by hot summers and mild winters.

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