Bill Oppenheim, August, 21, 2002 –Deauville Results Replicate U.S
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Bill Oppenheim, August, 21, 2002 –Deauville Results Replicate U.S. Elusive Quality’s 13, but two of the four are SWs, FROM THE DESK OF... including the impressive undefeated Saratoga GSW Awesome Humor. Bill Oppenheim Ashford rolled out three prolific possibles at last year’s yearling sales, and--though it’s a bit early to be dogmatic since none of the three has sired a SW yet--all three might DEAUVILLE RESULTS REPLICATE U.S. work. That will be a relief to the sellers of the 143 When a sale drops 26 percent in gross and 29 percent in September yearlings by the trio: Grand Slam (61) and Tale average, with 11 percent fewer sold than last year, it of the Cat (43) rank 4-5 in the current freshman sire table, would be understandable if that was not regarded as good with nine winners each; and King of Kings (39) has seven news. But in the context of the 2002 yearling market thus winners, another nine placed, and has jumped from 20th place to far, it’s not particularly bad news, either. 12th this month. Others who have made good moves forward in With nine more sold than last year (but 60 more offered), the last three weeks include: Awesome Again (29), 15th to 8th; Deauville’s first three days were off 8¼-million Euros, and Favorite Trick (33), 24th to 16th--though he has just one winner the average dropped from i142,000 to i100,736. The to go with his multiple California stakes-placed filly; and first three days’ clearance rate dropped from 80 percent to Coronado’s Quest (32), up to 18th, with three winners in the 69 percent. The three North American summer sales also past week. Swain (26) hasn’t hit the top 40 yet, but had the impressive winner of the Washington Singer S.-Listed last week dropped 26 percent in gross, but 35 percent in average, at Newbury; they may not be precocious, but they might be and the clearance rate was only 63 percent. So, in that pretty good, too. sense, Deauville’s first three days actually slightly As far as September overall is concerned, we can take a wild outperformed the market. And, after 10 straight years of stab and predict it will suffer a 26 percent drop in gross--the virtually unbroken gains--including the gross and average same as the U.S. summer sales and Deauville’s first three days. both doubling between 1997-2001, like everywhere else it In the unlikely event that the results are that predictable, we’ll wasn’t a question of whether there would be a contraction, know where it stands after the first Tuesday. The last two years but when, and how much. In 2002 terms, Deauville’s Book One has accounted for 56 percent and 54 percent of the results so far are palatable--and they did set a new sales sale’s total gross, respectively. If Book One drops 26 percent, it will gross just over $100-million; if the whole sale drops 26 record, the 2-million Indian Ridge filly bought by Sheikh i percent, the gross will be $188-million. So the most important Maktoum. measurement we’ll have to look at will be to see where the Book All Roads Lead to Keeneland September One gross ends up, over or under $100-million. It’s the time of year when a winner or two--especially a Among European freshman sires (see p7, Table 2), the good winner--can make a big difference to a sire whose unheralded Averti has now claimed top spot, courtesy of his first two-year-olds are racing, because there are now only daughter Wunder’s Dream’s impressive win in the G3 Molecomb 19 days left for a sire to make an impression before the S. at Goodwood; she clashes tomorrow with Queen Mary S. September Sale gets underway. If you just take the top 20 winner Romantic Liaison and Princess Margaret S. winner Russian on the current North American freshman sire list (see p7, Rhythm is a very hot edition of the G2 Lowther at York. Averti, Table 1), 12 of the 20 stand in Kentucky. Those 12 alone Danetime, and Air Express each have over £150,000 in progeny earnings now. Four others are now above £100,000 in progeny have 407 yearlings catalogued in September--almost 10 earnings, including Desert Prince--by far the top commercial percent of the sale. Especially in a market going down, prospect in this group; he now has 10 winners and ranks fifth, freshman sires whose names haven’t popped up on the but they look as if they could figure pretty strongly when the radar screens are likely to suffer severely--so a placing at good seven-furlong races come up. least in the top 20 has got to be a big help. The freshman sire who is absolutely guaranteed to have Big Guns, Big Wins a big sale is leading North American freshman sire Elusive Two long-established and well-respected Arab operations have Quality, who has 37 yearlings catalogued. Sheikh had huge weeks. As Andrew Caulfield detailed Tuesday, Prince Mohammed’s been pretty quiet at the yearling sales so far Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte had three G1 winners in 24 hours and Sheikh Hamdan had a big double at York yesterday, with this year, but he campaigned this son of Gone West who Nayef winning the G1 Juddmonte International and Bandari (from has made a mighty impressive start at stud, and it will be a his sire Alhaarth’s first crop) scoring in the G2 Great Voltigeur. surprise if his team isn’t scouting for some top yearlings by The Juddmonte looked a race with three serious future stallions him. That will just be an added boost, because, from what in it: Nayef will surely succeed his half-brothers Nashwan and I’ve seen, this fellow could be a top sire. You’ve also got Unfuwain at Nunnery; Golan is already ticketed for Coolmore; to be impressed with third-placed Distorted Humor (20 and don’t forget yesterday’s third, Rahy’s son Noverre. He has catalogued), a son of Forty Niner who stands at WinStar the right profile to make a sire, too. Farm. True, he does only have four winners, compared to.