DEVELOPED BY BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON 2014 ON BEHALF OF: QUADRENNIAL USDA FOREST SERVICE FIRE & AVIATION FIRE REVIEW MANAGEMENT 201 14TH STREET, SW FINAL REPORT WASHINGTON, DC 20227 DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFICE OF WILDLAND FIRE 1849 C STREET, NW WASHINGTON, DC 20024 MAY 2015 Cover: Las Conchas Fire, New Mexico, 2011 2014 QFR Final Report (Kari Greer Photo) Las Conchas Fire, New Mexico, 2011 (Kari Greer Photo) 2014 QFR Final Report TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD . .I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . .III INTRODUCTION ........................................1 SECTION I: BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW ....................5 A. FIRE POLICY AND PROGRAM (PAST AND PRESENT). 7 B. QFR METHODOLOGY. 11 C. REPORT STRUCTURE. 13 SECTION II: BASELINE ASSESSMENT .......................15 A. CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS . 15 B. RISK MANAGEMENT. 21 C. WORKFORCE ..................................................................................... 29 D. OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES .......................................................................... 33 SECTION III: FUTURES ASSESSMENT (10–20 YEAR OUTLOOK). 45 A. BACKGROUND .................................................................................... 45 B. QFR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT APPROACH ................................................................. 46 C. QFR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES .......................................................................... 47 D. QFR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES PROCESS KEY INSIGHTS ....................................................... 56 SECTION IV: CONCLUSIONS AND ACTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION. 59 SECTION V: APPENDICES . 65 APPENDIX A. (QFR REPORT CARD SUMMARY) .............................................................. 65 APPENDIX B. (LIST OF ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED) ......................................................... 67 APPENDIX C. (LIST OF INDIVIDUALS CONSULTED). 70 APPENDIX D. (WORKS CITED) . 72 Cover: Las Conchas Fire, New Mexico, 2011 2014 QFR Final Report (Kari Greer Photo) McCall Smokejumper (Kari Greer Photo) 2014 QFR Final Report FOREWORD The Quadrennial Fire Review (QFR) is a strategic assess- The QFR articulates a vision that looks toward the horizon ment process conducted every four years to evaluate cur- and provides a multidecade view of risks and threats to rent wildland fire management community strategies and achieving Cohesive Strategy goals. Over the next half de- capabilities against best estimates of the future environ- cade, the QFR will help us update the goals of the Cohesive ment. This report is the third iteration of the QFR, which be- Strategy. We cannot be complacent about the new chal- gan in 2005. It is not a formal policy or decision document, lenges the future will surely bring. A primary interest of this but rather a strategic evaluation of the long-range direction effort has been to consider multiple plausible futures and of wildland fire management. It looks far into the future to to challenge current orthodoxies within our organizations. explore potential risks, challenges, and opportunities that may affect our ability to meet our mission. Moreover, it will We are grateful to Booz Allen Hamilton for developing this inform our strategic planning, investments, operational report and to all the organizations and individuals who capabilities, and positioning. contributed their time and focus to the process. We look forward to continuing the dialogue that we initiated during The objective of the QFR is to create an integrated, long- the development of this report and to using the information range strategic vision document for the community and to contained within it to make better decisions. Our initial use it as the foundation for policy discussions within feder- managers’ assessment, in which we outline the role we al agencies and, more importantly, among federal agencies see for this QFR, is available at http://www.forestsan- and state, local, tribal, and other partners. The summary drangelands.gov/QFR/. findings will also inform key stakeholders in Congress, the White House, the Office of Management and Budget, and Tom Harbour the Government Accountability Office about the challenges, Director, Fire & Aviation Management risks, and opportunities that lay before us in managing USDA Forest Service wildland fire on federal lands. Jim Douglas The 2014 QFR was conducted in concert with the imple- Director, Office of Wildland Fire mentation of the first National Cohesive Wildland Fire Department of the Interior Management Strategy (Cohesive Strategy), a collaborative process that includes active involvement from all levels of government and nongovernmental organizations and from the public to seek national, all-lands solutions to wildland fire management issues. The strategic outlook for this QFR is 10 to 20 years. Look- ing that far ahead into the future will help us to identify risks and opportunities that may not be readily apparent with the continuous, more immediate challenges that managing wild- land fire presents on a daily basis. In contrast, the Cohesive Strategy focuses on driving new and improved approaches to fire management now on the ground and in communities across the country. As we have conducted the QFR, we have been mindful of the extensive efforts made over the past four years in developing the Cohesive Strategy, including the regional assessments and the national analysis of chal- lenges, opportunities, and priorities that have captured the perspectives of traditional stakeholder groups. i 2014 QFR Final Report Pagami Creek Fire, Minnesota, 2011 (Kari Greer Photo) 2014 QFR Final Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2014 Quadrennial Fire Review (QFR) is the third itera- BASELINE ASSESSMENT tion of a strategic risk assessment process initiated by the Changing Climatic Conditions. Driven largely by rising United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the greenhouse gas emissions, climatic change across regions Department of the Interior (DOI). It is a joint effort of the of the United States is driving increased temperatures— USDA Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management (FS-FAM) particularly in regions where fire has not been historically and the DOI Office of Wildland Fire (OWF), which coordi- prominent. Such change is causing variation and unpre- nates the wildland fire management efforts of four DOI dictability in precipitation and is amplifying the effects of bureaus: the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Na- wildfire. Related impacts are likely to continue (or emerge) tional Park Service (NPS), the US Fish and Wildlife Service in several key areas: limited water availability for fire (FWS), and the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA). The first QFR suppression, accumulation—at unprecedented levels—of occurred in 2005 and the second in 2009. vegetative fuels that enable and sustain fires, changes in vegetation community composition that make them As an enterprise-level review, the 2014 QFR sought to more fire prone, and an extension of the fire season to identify and explore key wildland fire management issues as many as 300 days in many parts of the country. These in the United States; assess the efficacy of current policy, factors are not only driving an increasing prevalence of strategy, and programs in expected future environments; fire, but also are resulting in fires that increasingly exhibit and present a set of related actions for consideration by extreme behavior. federal wildland fire leaders at the FS and the DOI. A fu- ture-oriented mindset was integral to the process; a central Risk Management. The community has been successful aim of the QFR was to offer wildland fire leaders the oppor- in limiting the presence and impact of unwanted fire, but tunity to methodically analyze a set of alternative futures a variety of emerging trends increasingly put responders, that could emerge over the next 10 to 20 years, particu- the public, and other values at risk. Fuel levels are also at larly by asking, “What are we are not currently seeing?” unprecedented levels due to climatic change, decades of suppression that have limited fire from prewar levels of 25 The QFR links closely with the National Cohesive Wildland to 40 million acres burned per year to 5 million or fewer Fire Management Strategy Cohesive Strategy (Cohesive since the 1960s, and a decline in active forest manage- Strategy) process, yet the QFR and the Cohesive Strategy ment. Combined with these factors, rapid expansion of exist for different, complementary purposes. The 2005 the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which has largely been and 2009 QFRs helped set the stage for the three goals unaccompanied by parallel increases in local community outlined in the first Cohesive Strategy; the 2014 QFR will resiliency, is also creating new risks. Apparent declines in do the same for future Cohesive Strategy iterations. Where- prescribed burning and fire use only exacerbate the prob- as the Cohesive Strategy assesses the current situation lem and limit fire managers’ best tools to combat fire-relat- and outlines actions to improve near-term effectiveness, ed smoke and air quality issues. These issues are expect- the QFR looks 10 to 20 years forward to explore a range ed to become more acute as climatic change exposes new of plausible alternative futures, offers an analytical under- areas of the country, particularly those with high concentra- pinning for the next Cohesive Strategy, and encourages tions of organic biomass, to wildfire. present-day preparation for emerging change. To that end, the QFR/Cohesive Strategy process is iterative, resulting in Workforce. Like